Eagles

php
What I'm Watching for in Tonight's Eagles-Steelers Preseason Game
Date: 08/12/21
We universally think preseason games are poor quality football, but there are important things to watch. Here are the top 5 things I want to watch for tonight that are meaningful to the team improving in 2021. Read more
php
The Good, the Bad, and the Surprising
Date: 08/09/21
Zech McPhearson, has been making plays and demonstrating tight cover skills with his great athleticism. The Eagles could have found a real player in the 4th round. He is also become really efficient at giving his teammates delicious water ice treats. Read more
php
What's Important From Training Camp Week 2
Date: 08/09/21
A quick update on week 2 of training camp with a specific focus on the key things that matter for the Eagles season including Hurts correcting his two key issues, the best WR unit we have had in a while, and the defense. Read more
php
Rewatching All of Jalen Reagor's 2020 Targets
Date: 08/07/21
It was great to see Reagor pop at camp this week with one of the best catches I've seen an Eagles receiver make. Here I look at receiver data on separation and YAC and a re-watch of all of Reagor's 2020 targets to show why we should be very optimistic on the 2nd year receiver. Read more
php
Let's Talk About Tyree Jackson...
Date: 08/06/21
Tyree Jackson is the most interesting story in Eagles camp this year. Here I take a look at the importance of mismatches in the NFL and how Tyree compares to the league's other tight ends. He's a player the Eagles need to find a way to keep. Read more
php
HOF WR Harold Carmichael, The Wait Is Finally Over
Date: 08/05/21
Harold was not just an all time Eagles great, he is an all time NFL great. When he retired in 1984, he had the fifth most receptions and the seventh most touchdown receptions of all time (in the NFL). Read more
php
Is Slot the Right Position for Avonte?
Date: 08/03/21
Avonte Maddox looks to be headed back to the slot this year after the signing of Steve Nelson. But is that his best position? Data and his traits show he should be playing more safety. Read more
php
MLB Player, Patrick Mahomes
Date: 08/02/21
In the 37th round of the 2014 MLB amateur draft the Detroit Tigers select…Patrick Mahomes. Read more
php
53 Man Roster, Training Camp Edition
Date: 08/01/21
53 man roster projection updated with Minshew over Mullens on Aug 28th Read more
php
What's Important From Training Camp Week 1
Date: 08/01/21
Building on past articles on what to watch that will determine success for the team, specific players, and future draft needs, updates from week 1 of camp. Camp stats don't matter, but quicker decisions from Hurts, Reagor's progression, who can elevate as a hybrid defender, and more do. Read more
php
The Carson Wentz Era is Over
Date: 07/30/21
With a possible surgery looming, and a likelihood of not playing the required snaps to give the Eagles the desired first round pick (now a second), maybe fans can finally move on. There would be no reason to pay attention to him anymore. It also might be the end of the 3 firsts to Houston for Watson talk as well. Read more
php
Quez Watkins, The Forgotten Weapon, Don’t Be A Fan Later
Date: 07/27/21
Watkins threw up a peace sign after he scored his first NFL touchdown, but he wants nothing more than to cause quite the opposite to opposing DB’s this upcoming season. Read more
php
Quick Thoughts on New Eagle Steven Nelson
Date: 07/26/21
A quick look at what the Eagles are getting with Steven Nelson and what the data shows on his 2020 season which many in Pittsburgh viewed as a down year. Read more
php
Why the 2021 Eagles Will Beat Their 6.5 Win Projection
Date: 07/23/21
Using historical value (AV) data and relevant assumptions on the 2021 Eagles, a build-up of team value shows their expected win total is near 10 wins vs. current betting lines of 6.5 wins. Read more
php
Former Philadelphia Eagles CB Mark "Mighty Mouse" McMillian
Date: 07/20/21
NFL Player, Emmy Winner, Outreach founder and Entrepreneur- let’s get reintroduced to former Philadelphia Eagles Cornerback Mark McMillian. Read more

What I’m Watching for in Tonight’s Eagles-Steelers Preseason Game

Finally, a preseason game is tonight but it is just preseason. But there are meaningful things to look for. This is just a quick post on what I think are the five most important things (in order of importance) to watch tonight that matter for the season. A lot of this builds on past articles like the below which I’m not going to repeat here in the interest of a quick article:

  • The best metrics to watch, or what drives success (here and here)
  • What can we expect from Jalen Hurts this year (here)
  • And why I think the Eagles will beat their 6.5 win projection (here)

1. How is Hurts’ timing and decision-making?
Why: Accuracy issues are overblown, the two most important issues for Hurts to correct are better timing of throws and limiting poor decisions that lead to turnovers
I am not worried on his accuracy as he was very good in college and a lot of his accuracy issues were due to late throws and pressure. Sirianni has been working on his footwork and working in a lot of rhythm passing. We will see Hurts being asked for quick timing throws tonight and if he improves here, he has taken a big step up from last year. And, tonight we will see Hurts able to scramble more than camp which is a huge part of the value of his game but also the source of many of his bad decision throws. He has to reduce turnovers as he was really bad here last year (and in college).

2. Are Reagor, Fulgham, and Quez separating?
Why: Separation and YAC are the main drivers of WR success
Top receivers all separate and/or create with the ball after the catch. If you do neither, you won’t be good (which is why JJAW just won’t be good). DeVonta won’t be out there tonight but I will be watching (as mush as possible on a non-All 22 TV feed) if Reagor, Fulgham, and Quez are separating. All three have good separation ratings which is why I am high on all of them.

3. How do we defend Chase Claypool?
Why: Claypool is the exact type of player (WR or TE) that the Eagles have historically been unable to cover
Claypool lit the Eagles up last year (7/110/3 plus a TD running) and had a very good first preseason game (3/62/0 in only 15 snaps). He represents the type of mismatch the Eagles have consistently had trouble with at 6’4″, 238lbs, and 4.42 speed that created explosive plays on over 12% of his targets. There is a lot more to be focused on with the pass defense, but a really good first view will be how we defend Claypool, both who defends him (Nelson or Avonte or Slay) and how we scheme to defend him.

4. How does the OL look?
Why: The OL has to rebound this year as it was the source of so many other issues last year
OL success comes down to Pass Block Win Rate (PBWR) and Run Block Win Rate (RBWR). This line will be good and will be healthier just because it would be a statistical miracle to be as injured as they were last year. PBWR is holding a block for at least 2.5 seconds and this will be seen how much Hurts needs to escape the pocket – last year he did it a ton (sometimes when he didn’t have to, but the pressure last year was awful). And the Eagles will run more – we want to see our line creating holes so that our backs are gaining yards before contact.

5. How does Tyree look in a real game?
Why: Tyree’s height and speed are unique in the league and he is the biggest opportunity on the Eagles to be a future mismatch issue
Not just latching on to this year’s camp darling as I have written why Tyree is important (We know what Ertz and Goedert are and I honestly am not interested in any other TE not named – the rest are TE3s. Can Tyree get open and how is his blocking? I am expecting his blocking to still be pretty rough.

The Good, the Bad, and the Surprising

Good– Josh Sweat, might be the best player in camp, has totally dominated the O line.

4 trade deadline targets to boost Carolina Panthers pass-rush - Page 3

Bad– Injuries. Hightower was having a rough camp and the injury might have sealed him missing the final 53

Surprising– JJaw has looked faster and he is making all of his plays thus far. Camp tease?

Good– Derek Barnett, If not for Josh Sweat dominating, he would be getting more pub. He has been very explosive so far.

Good again– Zech McPhearson, has been making plays and demonstrating tight cover skills with his great athleticism. The Eagles could have found a real player in the 4th round. He has also become really efficient at giving his teammates delicious water ice treats.

Bad– The offense in general. At this point it is hard to determine if the offense is really not clicking much or if the defense is really this good. The defense has dominated almost every practice. Offenses usually need more time, but they look to need a LOT more time to catch up with the D. They did look a lot better during Sundays open practice.

Surprising– Coaching, Sirianni has had a very hands on approach, also hasn’t been scared to get in a players face. You can see Nick coaching up players at the end of every drill and rep. He is all over the place. Defensive Coordinator, Jonathan Gannon. He has the defense flying.

Nick Sirianni explains why Eagles have been running notoriously short training camp practices - CBSSports.com

Good and Bad- Reagor. Has made the best catch in camp. Also has missed time due to a failed conditioning test. He’s been dealing with the difficulty of losing a childhood friend. He gets a pass for the slow start and seems to be responding to Sirianni and his tough coaching style.

Surprising– Tyree Jackson is learning offense quickly, and making almost every play he has been asked to make. (not surprising his size and the mismatches it creates) He could make the roster. Tyree made a TD catch at the Linc Sunday night, then proceeded to slam the ball over the cross bar that caused mini tremors around the Delaware Valley.

Surprising again– Zach Ertz, the fact he is on the roster is somewhat a surprise. He has gone about his business as a professional (like he always does) despite being very unhappy with the organization.

Good– Quez Watkins, started camp a little late, and has caught everything and showed a lot of juice with his big play ability. Had the catch of the night Sunday at the Linc, he does not disappoint on the big stage.

Eagles wide receiver Quez Watkins goes through a drill at practice Thursday at the NovaCare Complex.

Good again– Jordan Mailata, has mauled BG and others on his way to easily winning the starting LT. Also removed bodyguard Boston Scott from his duties.

Bad– Andre Dillard, time is running out for him to win a job. Jordan is clearly winning the competition.

Bad again– Jake Elliot. Has a few misses inside 40 yards and hasn’t attempted too may kicks. He did look better during his 6 attempts Sunday night.

Surprising– That Jake didn’t have any competition in camp. His contract makes it very hard to move on from him this year, but he could have benefited from being pushed.

Misc– Jalen Hurts has been up and down with the offense. He is looking great on most deep balls and missing some medium range throws. He’s made a couple bad decisions leading to interceptions as well. Steve Nelson has also been inconsistent to the start of camp. He has started to show more the past couple practices as he becomes more acclimated with his new team and surroundings. He also got burned Sunday night, twice. Fulgham over top and Reagor on a slick move and route to the end zone.

Jalen Hurts has worst day of practice at Eagles training camp; coaching staff not concerned - CBSSports.com

What’s Important From Training Camp Week 2

Like last week, I’ll avoid the same updates we have all seen from reporters online as nobody needs another recap and instead try to focus on what matters for the Eagles season with a handful of quick items.

Hurts still has one area we need to see improve

I’m still very optimistic on Hurts as he generates explosive plays and his mobility is near elite. As I mentioned before, the two things that he needs to improve on are timing of his throws and limiting turnovers.

  • His deep ball continues to impress all through camp and he showed it off Sunday night at the open practice. This is important because the Eagles desperately need to be better at generating explosive plays (they have had a net negative explosive play rate the past 5 years except for 2017)
  • In week 1, camp reports often mentioned that he was late on throws – those reports died down this week. We will need to see this in games, but this is absolutely something that can be learned and Sirianni’s offense should help.
  • Turnovers is still a concern to me. Not so much turnovers themselves but when Hurts just makes a really bad decision. Camp stats don’t really matter, but seeing reports where he just should not have made a throw is what he needs to correct.

I showed this in my earlier Hurts article, but this shows why turnovers are a concern for him – Hurts had an above average interception rate and an off-the-charts-fumble rate in 2020.

QB turnover rates

This is one of his interceptions vs. Dallas in week 16 last year and shows a ball that should have never been thrown (this isn’t just cherry-picking a bad throw, most of his interceptions are plays where he scrambled, trying to create, and just forced a ball).

We have the best receiving unit we have had in a long time

I don’t think we as Eagles fans will ever believe we have an actual receiving unit – outside of TO and Maclin, we have generally had underperforming receivers with potential (Agholor), good receivers on the backend of their careers (Alshon, Torrey), receivers that actually didn’t have the traits needed (JJAW, Hollins, Huff, Matthews), and various reclamation projects (Dorial Green-Beckham). This unit is for real though.

Measurables along do not guarantee success, but I’ve written before on why the most important traits for receivers are the ability to separate, the ability to actually catch the ball, and the ability to create with the ball in their hands.

  • DeVonta was off-the-charts elite in all three of those in college.
  • Reagor is 95th percentile in separation and 76th percentile in YAC.
  • We all see what Quez can do – one of the main concerns with him pre-draft was ability to release against press and he is doing it.
  • Fulgham is 71st percentile in separation.
  • The Eagles passing offense the past several years has really been a tight end receiving offense and while that is a problem when that IS the offense, we can’t forget about the tight ends. Goedert and Ertz (if he is on the team) are as good of a pair as the league has. And I’ve written why Tyree Jackson needs to be on the team for his upside in the passing game.

The defense should be better in all three units

We all see the defense continually winning the day in camp and especially the defensive line dominating. In 2020, so much focus was on Wentz and the offense, but in 2020 the defense had their worst statistical year since 2012-2013. The past three years the Eagles defense has finished between 12th and 15th in defensive DVOA, defensive impacts generated (QB hits, TFL, passes defended, and forced fumbles) has steadily dropped from 340 in 2017 to 224 last year (below league average), and their turnover rate has also been cut in half from 36 in 2017 to 18 tw

  • The defensive line is doing everything it needs to and there is reason to be optimistic over last year with Barnett and Sweat both taking a big jump up and Hargrave being here a full season. It is hard to expect much from rookies as they need to learn how to win in the NFL, but Milton Williams is special athletically.
  • The Eagles have not been able to cover mismatches it seems like for forever as it always seems like a good week to play your fantasy TE against the Eagles. I’m not sure that changes dramatically this year but there are finally options at safety and linebacker (Eric Wilson, Davion, JaCoby) that have potential. The LBs have continued to make plays in camp this year.
  • And if you read my draft stuff, you know I think the Eagles need to invest in a corner high and they are not set up for the long-term here at all. The Eagles look like they have something with Zech and his week 1 of camp was not a fluke. I still think Avonte should play more safety but at least he isn’t outside this year. The secondary this year isn’t going to be the Ravens or the Bills secondary but will be improved.

What do we need to continue to see?

As we get closer to joint practices and preseason games which will be a bit better view on the team. I’m not concerned on either line and think our season will come down to a few things:

  • As mentioned above, Hurts making quicker decisions on throws and limiting turnovers.
  • I haven’t written on this specifically, but what the run game is. Not “do we run more” but how it is used. We will run more, but also how it benefits the passing game – passes out of play action have a higher Expected Points Added and we already know there is a return of more movement, play action, and RPOs this year should help the offense in total.
  • And how our secondary does against top receivers. The secondary should be better but what matters is shutting down the WRs we have to defend this season.

Rewatching All of Jalen Reagor’s 2020 Targets

I was not planning on doing an article specifically on Jalen Reagor but a couple of things this week changed my mind. In prior posts and on Twitter I’ve been high on Reagor because of his traits. This week, I posted something to that effect and got a pretty common reply of “nobody should be excited until he produces on the field.” Lot of other posts declaring him a round 1 bust.

We all can have player opinions and we will all be right at times and horribly wrong other times, but an opinion without some backing – either data or film – is not useful. We discard players way too quickly, not recognizing that a lot of very good players don’t have great rookie seasons.

1st round receivers taken since 2010 have averaged 88 targets, 50 catches, 681 receiving yards, and a cumulative Expected Points Added (EPA) of 16.80. Here are recent 1st round receivers that were viewed as disappointments or busts after their rookie season:

PlayerTargetsCatchesYardsYACEPA
Mike Williams23119511-12.05
Corey Davis6534375130-6.82
Devante Parker50264949824.68
Demaryius Thomas39222831398.11

Reagor in a partial rookie season had 53 targets and 31 catches for 396 yards with 191 YAC and a cumulative EPA of 6.85. Projecting Reagor out to a full season (he missed 5 games), he would have 77 targets, 45 catches, and 574 yards.

On stats alone, his rookie season was a disappointment and Reagor has said the same, but looking at only his stat line is misleading. The issue is Reagor will forever be compared to Justin Jefferson. Anybody can disagree with the pick and criticize Howie, but Jefferson (or any other player) has nothing to do with Reagor being a good receiver or not.

Reagor’s traits say he will be good

If you have read my other stuff, you will know I am huge on traits because if a player has the traits that typically lead to success, they aren’t guaranteed to be good but are much more likely to be. And if they don’t have the traits (Dillard’s functional strength, Sidney Jones’ short-area agility, JJAWs inability to separate or create with the ball), it is very unlikely they succeed.

For receivers, the traits that matter are separation, reliability catching, and an ability to create with the ball (here is a prior post on offensive metrics that matter which has more detail on these wide receiver efficiency metrics). As I’ve mentioned before, in 2020 Reagor was 95th percentile in separation and 76th percentile in YAC ability – receivers that are top quarter in two traits are all good. I can’t say it any more clearly – with those traits, it is unlikely Reagor is not good.

Rewatching Reagor’s 2020 targets

I decided to re-watch (again) all of Reagor’s 2020 targets and charted them myself to see how often he created separation, how the QB play helped or hurt him, and what he did with the ball. Even being more positive on him than most coming into this, I was actually surprised how much more effective he was than the common view on his rookie season.

Depth of TargetTargetsCatches# On Target Throws# Drops# with Separation# Contested Catches / Contested Targets
Short (0-10)2520191n/a4/6
Medium (10-20)1510100102/4
Deep (over 20)1423170/0

Note that the above totals 32 receptions when he officially only had 31 – the difference is there was a two-point conversion against Dallas that I included but is not included in official receiving stats.

What should stand out here are the following:

  • The QBs did not help Reagor with 22 of 54 targets not being catchable balls.
  • Reagor caught everything that was on-target. If you look in official stats, he will be listed with 1 drop and drops are subjective, but I had him down for 2.
  • Reagor consistently separates, with 17 of his 29 targets having separation (I only tracked separation on medium and deep targets as short yardage separation is misleading as so many are quick passes at the LOS)
  • Reagor has underrated ability to create after the catch. He had an expected YAC of 129 yards (expected YAC is from the NFLfastR dataset and based on play conditions) but generated 191 YAC.

If you have 12 minutes, go watch Reagor’s 2020 targets which Jimmy Kempski has posted on Youtube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hdZGZV2B9cs&t=338s). Below I’m showing representative plays that give good context on what Reagor’s 2020 actually was.

Separation and Catches
Reagor had good separation on half of his deep (over 20 yard) targets, but only 3 of 14 were on-target passes. The first is his opener of the season with the deep completion vs Washington. The second is a play against Arizona many disagree on and say Reagor could have caught it – he had Patrick Peterson beat but Hurts threw it late, turning separation into a contested catch. And the next four are all routes where Reagor finds open space.

Contested Catches
Not known for contested catches, Reagor did well here and showing better hands than what most expected out of college. The first three clips are immediate hits against the Rams, Giants, and Browns where he held the ball. The fourth clip is an intentionally underthrown ball where Reagor had a chance to come back with the corner not turning his head around, but it was a good PBU on tight coverage. The fifth is one of my least favorite of all of his targets – against the Seahawks, Reagor had a ball in the endzone where he didn’t go up for it. This would have been a tough catch, but good receivers make this a more competitive reception.

YAC Ability
As mentioned earlier, Reagor was 76th percentile among receivers last year in YAC and he clearly has an ability to create on his own. The first four clips are all short screens. The first is creating something out of nothing vs. Dallas, forcing a missed tackle. The second is a good pickup following his blockers vs. the Giants. The third showed good vision through a crowd vs. the Seahawks and the fourth is another where he forces a missed tackle. The fifth is a 40 yard gain on a crosser over the middle where he had space. And the last clip vs. the Cardinals is another long gain on a pass behind the LOS.

The Misses
Some of the notable targets where Reagor was open but a poor throw, including Wentz overthrowing him on a would-be touchdown and bouncing one behind him. The deep ball from Hurts vs. the Saints often receives criticism that Reagor could have made a play on it – he could have dove for it making it a great catch, but it doesn’t change that he was open and the ball was poorly placed, too far left

Drops
Drops don’t really have an official measurement and are defined as passes where the WR should have caught it with reasonable effort. Officially, Reagor had one drop last season, I added a second which I understand why it is not counted. The first one against Dallas is just a pure drop on a screen – this play was most likely going to be no gain as coverage was there as the pass arrived with no blockers. The second is on a 4th and 31 against Seattle where Wentz was too high on the pass, forcing Reagor up. Reagor had his hands on it and was going to take an immediate hit, but this was well short of the first down marker. Neither of his drops were consequential.

Expectations are high this year and Reagor has more work to do – his routes need to be better and there were balls last year that he needed to fight for more. I feel bad on his personal issues but he needed to come into camp ready and in shape. But he has the raw traits with high separation and YAC rankings in the league. And watching his targets last year, you see that the QB play absolutely affected his rookie year. Does this all guarantee success? Of course not, plenty of traits players have failed. But I will bet on player traits and will be right more often than wrong.

I get why fans are frustrated (with a lot of that frustration really aimed at Howie), but the data and tape don’t support these opinions. We should be very excited to see Reagor in Sirianni’s offense where he has been consistent in saying they will design the offense to player strengths… and see Reagor across from DeVonta… with a healthy (healthier) offensive line… and with Hurts who doesn’t even have to be great to be better than what our receivers had last year.

Reagor will be good.

Let’s Talk About Tyree Jackson…

Finally getting into the NFL Hall of Fame, Harold Carmichael was one of the original mismatch nightmares in the NFL. At 6’10”, he still is the tallest wide receiver to play in the league. More than just height, Carmichael had speed for his size – he was rumored to have run a 4.6 40 but his speed was more dangerous on the field as he got going with his long stride. David just wrote an article on Carmichael (https://phillycovercorner.com/2021/08/hof-wr-harold-carmichael-the-wait-is-finally-over/) and it got me thinking about another potential mismatch-maker in camp this year in Tyree Jackson.

The importance of mismatches in the NFL

Even more so than in Carmichael’s day, NFL offenses are about creating mismatches with motion or disguise, the rise of running backs and tight ends in the passing game, mobile quarterbacks, and elite athletes that can just win. Sharp Football Analysis has a great look at the importance of mismatches here where they looked specifically at running backs or wide receivers on linebackers. In it, they found that:

  • When failing to create a mismatch, offenses create negative 1.2 EPA (Expected Points Added) per 60 plays
  • But when they do create a mismatch, their EPA per 60 plays is positive 1.8 EPA

A 4.0 Expected Points Added swing between plays with mismatches and those without. And Sharp found that there was carryover to the run game, with a 3.6 EPA per 60 play benefit when rushes occurred with a mismatch in coverage (as the mismatch draws attention).

The Eagles need for playmakers

Sharp’s data is from 2019 where the Eagles were 30th in the league in creating offensive mismatches. And when you look at explosive play rate (defined as a pass over 16 yards or a run over 12 yards), the Eagles have consistently – with the exception of the 2017 season – allowed more explosive plays than they created. The below chart shows the Eagles explosive play rate (blue line) vs. the average playoff team (grey line).

PHI Explosive Play Rate

Tyree as a mismatch threat

Tyree has unique size and speed at 6’7″, a 4.59 40, and a 7.09 three cone. Tight ends today are big, but he still stands out.

Below shows the league’s tight ends by height (Y axis) and 40 time (X axis) with the top ranked tight ends by PFF in red. Just because somebody is tall or fast or both does not guarantee success, but the top tight ends definitely skew tall. 40 time is not quite as correlated. But at the very top of the graph in the middle you find Tyree Jackson.

Looking at height vs. arm length, again Tyree shows up at the top with his tackle-ready 34.25 arms.

If you compare Tyree to just the Eagles current tight ends, you see an even starker athletic difference:

His size stands out at camp.

Again, just being big and fast does not mean success as there is so much that goes into being successful. But he is in a good spot to learn what he needs to:

  • He will need to learn the offense which as an ex-quarterback nobody should be worried about.
  • He needs to learn to run routes and judging by the attention to detail by the new staff, he probably couldn’t be in a better place. Today he spoke about how much detailed coaching he is getting.
  • And he needs to be a solid blocker.

So much is up in the air with the tight end depth chart because of uncertainty with Zach Ertz and if Ertz is on the team, it makes the third TE spot a really difficult decision. But Tyree has the potential to be a mismatch for the Eagles offense which they desperately need. He has shown a lot in camp in the first week and will need to pop in joint practices and preseason games, but I would really think hard about what he could become for the Eagles in the future. His size and speed does not come along often at all.

And, with Hurts’ speed at QB and ex-QB Tyree at TE, the Eagles next Super Bowl Philly Special will have a range from the 50 yard line in…

HOF WR Harold Carmichael, The Wait Is Finally Over

The Eagles all time leader in pass receptions, receiving yards, receiving touchdowns, and total touchdowns, despite the league now being a much more pass heavy offense than in his day, will finally be making his way into the NFL Hall Of Fame after a long strange wait.

Harold was not just an all time Eagles great, he is an all time NFL great. When he retired in 1984, he had the fifth most receptions and the seventh most touchdown receptions of all time (in the NFL).

Prior to Brian Dawkins in 2018, there weren’t any Philadelphia Eagles players who had played more than three seasons with the football team to be enshrined into the Pro Football Hall of Fame since the great Reggie White, who was posthumously inducted in 2006.

Terrell Owens should have lasted longer than his one great and one disastrous season with the organization. If he had, Eagles fans would have celebrated his entry alongside Dawkins in 2018.

Another receiver the Philly faithful could have celebrated with was Chris Carter, inducted in 2013, but alas, that was not meant to be either.

The Eagles hadn’t had a wide receiver enter Canton, unless it was for a tour, since Tommy McDonald in 1998.

All of that changed January 15th 2020 when the great number 17, Harold Carmichael, finally got the call. The Pro Football Hall of Fame was celebrating the one hundred year anniversary of the NFL by creating a special centennial induction process which inducted ten seniors, three contributors to the game and two coaches.

Eagles legend Harold Carmichael selected to Pro Football Hall of Fame - Bleeding Green Nation

After a very long wait to be selected, and then to be inducted (due to Covid-19 pandemic) Harold was ready when his number was called, just like he always was when he played for the Eagles.

I can think of nobody more deserving to enter the hallowed halls than Lee Harold Carmichael. Congratulations to you!

Inside the process to elect Harold Carmichael into the Pro Football Hall of Fame

David

Follow me at @PHLEagleNews

Is Slot the Right Position for Avonte?

During his rookie season, when asked which position he plays, Avonte corrected a reporter and said he is a DB, not a corner or safety. That year, he played significant snaps at corner, slot, and safety and this versatility has been a big aspect of his career.

Since his rookie year, though, this versatility has not been used with him exclusively playing the slot in 2019 and outside corner in 2020. And this season the signing of Steve Nelson (I learned he goes by Steve, not Steven, which still seems odd to me…) pushes Avonte back to the slot, which most say is his natural or better position.

But is Avonte a slot corner? His stats in coverage and his traits both point to him best used more as a free safety. He will always be versatile and has the potential to play a role like Tyrann Mathieu who plays a safety / slot hybrid.

Avonte’s career to date

The arc of Avonte’s career is interesting. While his versatility is such a strength and he showed it early in his career, his second and third years were very dedicated roles in the secondary.

2018 Draft Profile: Maddox was taken in the 4th round of the 2018 draft to fill Patrick Robinson’s spot after he left in free agency. Coming out of Pitt, Avonte’s draft profile projected him as a slot corner with the following key points:

  • Strengths: High character, physical, willing tackler, twitchy and fluid athlete
  • Weaknesses: Size, issues in man coverage with mirroring receivers and giving too much cushion, susceptible to fakes with his aggressiveness

2018 Rookie Season – Playing Everywhere
Avonte quickly entered the Eagles lineup at free safety, a position he never played before, after Rodney McLeod was lost for the season. He showed his versatility throughout the season, playing safety (226 snaps, or 44% of total snaps), slot (109 snaps, 21%), and outside corner (174 snaps, 34%) and receiving accolades as a top corner in the league:

2019 Season – Slot
With a healthier secondary and Darby, Jalen Mills, Sidney Jones, and Rasul Douglas all in play, Avonte almost exclusively played slot, with 81% of his snaps being slot, only 17% on the outside, and almost nothing at safety with McLeod back. In 2019, Maddox came back to Earth with his passer rating allowed rising from 59.9 in 2018 to 95.5 in 2019 and his yards per coverage snap more than doubling from 0.56 in 2018 to 1.21 in 2019.

2020 Season – Outside Corner
The Eagles finally address CB1 with the trade for Darius Slay and then move Avonte from the slot to the other outside corner with the signing of Nickell Robey-Coleman. Like 2019, Avonte again almost exclusively lines up in a single position (outside corner). Many were doubtful on Avonte’s fit on the outside and his results showed, turning in his worst season with a 102.7 passer rating allowed, 1.36 yards per coverage snap, and a 37.1 coverage grade. Out of the 8 games he played more than 10 coverage snaps, Avonte gave up a 100 or greater passer rating in 5 of the 8 games.

2021 Season: Avonte is likely moving back to the slot, his primary 2019 position although it will be interesting to see how Jonathan Gannon uses him.

Why safety may be Avonte’s best position

His versatility is a strength and makes him extremely valuable, but few players are moved around (or can be) like he is. After missing out on top corners in the draft and having little cap space to work with, the Eagles definitely improved their secondary with the signings of Nelson at outside corner and Anthony Harris at free safety. Both are one-year deals and both are good signings. But ideally, Avonte would have taken the Anthony Harris role and a slot corner would have been added. The Eagles still have longer-term issues with almost all secondary positions needing a solution past this year or next. Avonte can be a piece of this if used in the right way.

Here are Avonte’s career stats across the three positions:

PositionCareer
Coverage Snaps		Completion %
Allowed		Yds /
Cov Snap		Passer Rating
Allowed
Free safety23460.0%0.3365.0
Slot53865.6%1.0587.4
Outside Corner65757.5%1.1776.8

His outside corner numbers aren’t great, but his slot numbers are more similar than most realize. Both the 1.05 yards per coverage snap and the 87.4 passer rating allowed in the slot would put Avonte between 40-50th in the league.

There is a little bit of “small sample size” with free safety as only 16% of his career snaps were at safety – a 0.33 yards per coverage snap rate is near elite and would put Avonte in the top 10-12 in the league, near Jessie Bates, Adrian Amos, and Marcus Maye. But he is very good there and his traits also point to safety:

  • Highly intelligent player that sees the field and understands route responsibilities
  • Solid tackler and plays fearlessly for his size
  • Great burst and speed that allows him to close
  • Plays more naturally with cushion on receivers
  • Aggressive but is susceptible to double moves and fakes, plays better with the play in front of him

This is an older clip from his rookie season but Ike Reese and Mike Quick breakdown several plays that demonstrate why he was good at safety with route recognition, his closing speed, and tackling: https://youtu.be/aRsZ2B3MP0I?t=83

Looking forward to 2021

There is so much to be excited for in 2021 and interesting things to watch for, even if the Eagles aren’t a great team. One of them is how Gannon uses the defensive backs. They have consistently said they will scheme to the players’ strengths and are already showing much more flexibility in formations and roles than we have seen before (including quite a bit of 3-4 alignment). To me, how Avonte is used by Gannon will be one the most interesting thing to watch this year… I imagine he will not be so singly used as he has the past two years and I expect he will play more safety and slot combinations (and probably some pass rush).

I mentioned Tyrann Mathieu earlier and it is tough to make player comparisons like that but Avonte has the athleticism, the ability to see the field, the toughness, and the versatility to play a very similar role. And his rookie season safety stats show he can play at a level much above how he has been used the past two years.

MLB Player, Patrick Mahomes

In the 37th round of the 2014 MLB amateur draft the Detroit Tigers select…Patrick Mahomes.

The 19 year old Patrick was a right handed pitcher out of Whitehouse High School who had already committed to Texas Tech when the Tigers selected him with their pick.

Patrick was a three sport athlete in high school playing basketball, football and baseball. He was being scouted and recruited for his baseball prowess due to his rare skill set of throwing so hard at such a young age, he also had developed a curve to couple with it. Local scouts in Texas believed had he focused on baseball that he would someday project to throw 94–95 MPH consistently, with the abilities to carve out a lengthy major league career as a pitcher, he was also a very good outfielder. Mahomes was ranked the 419th best prospect in the 2014 draft and would have been ranked and drafted much higher had he not been very upfront about his desire to play football and his prior commitment to Texas Tech. The Tigers used the pick in case Patrick changed his mind, despite knowing it to be a long shot. The Tigers still had some hope that he may someday change sports, and be successful doing it.

His father, Patrick Sr. was drafted by MIN twins in the 6th round of the 1988 amateur draft and managed a lengthy MLB eleven year career, mainly as a reliever. It wasn’t unusual to see the younger Patrick in the dugout or in the field catching balls off of the bats of his father’s MLB teammates. Watching and witnessing the stadiums and crowds would give him a sample of the fame and future he would have for himself less than 20 years later.

Though he would not follow in father’s footstep, he was still able to capture a moment that lives in baseball lore and left scouts salivating for a chance to draft him. In March 2014 during the Texas state playoffs, Patrick was preparing for a playoff double header. In game one his team’s opponent, Mount Pleasant, was giving the ball to an ace of their own. A highly touted baseball prospect and future professional and current MLB Chicago White Sox pitcher, Michael Kopech. Kopech was known for having a fastball a few ticks higher than Patrick, and had been able hit 98–100 on the radar gun on more than one occasion, and he did this day as well. Kopech would also be selected in the 2014 MLB amateur draft, in round one.

The stage was set for a classic pitchers duel rarely seen at the high school level.

Patrick would go on to pitch a 16 strikeout no hitter in a 2–1 victory. The only run Mount Pleasant scored came off a wild pitch, after Patrick walked 2 batters and allowed a sacrifice bunt. It was a fantastic display of what could have been for him as a baseball player.

After the game Mahomes told the East Texas Sports Network “I’ve pitched against Kopech since we were freshmen,” and “As we’ve gotten older both of us have gotten better. I played with him a little bit this summer and he’s a great pitcher. He struck me out twice at the plate and I’ve only been struck out once the rest of the season.” Unfortunately for Kopech, his day would end prematurely after being ejected in the seventh innings for mediating a dispute between a teammate and an opponent at second base. Despite losing the blockbuster matchup, and the game, Kopech was still quoted “That’s a Top 5 [game] for me. I know that’s kind of silly to say. It’s a high school game and I’ve pitched in so many. I will never forget that game. It was a lot of fun.”

As previously mentioned, this was only the first of a playoff double header and Mahomes wasn’t done showing scouts what could have been quite yet. He returned for the night cap against Princeton High School. While playing the field, he showed off his bat with a 3–4–3 line. 3 hits in 4 at bats with 3 rbi, falling a triple short of the cycle. Whitehouse also won that game, 10–3 over Princeton. His team won both of those games that night, but would fall short of winning the Texas State Championship.

Patrick Mahomes leads Chiefs to Super Bowl LIV victory over 49ers - Sports Illustrated

As we all now know, with the 6th pick in the 2017 NFL draft, the Kansas City Chiefs selected Patrick Mahomes. He has been as remarkable on the football field week in and week out as he was that special night in March 2014.

David

Thank You for reading. Follow me at @PHLEagleNews

53 Man Roster, Training Camp Edition

Aug 1, 2021

QB- 3 Hurts, Flacco, Minshew

(updated to replace Mullens with Minshew the day of the trade 8/28)

RB- 4 Sanders, Gainwell, Scott, Huntley

WR- 6 Smith, Reagor, Watkins, Fulgham, Ward, JJaw

TE- 3 Dallas, Ertz, Tyree

OL-9 Mailata, Dillard, Seumalo, Dickerson, Kelce, Brooks, Johnson, Driscoll, Herbig

DT- 4 Cox, Hargrave, Williams, Tuipulotu

DE- 4 Barnett, Graham, Kerrigan, Sweat

LB- 6 Wilson, Singletary, Taylor, Edwards, Avery*, Bradley

S- 5 Harris, Epps, Wallace, Stevens**, McLeod

CB- 6 Slay, Nelson, James, McPhearson, Josiah, Maddox

K- 1 Elliot

P- 1 Siposs

LS- 1 Lovato

* Avery can play DE or LB

** Stevens can play S or LB

Projecting Davion Taylor, Josiah Scott and Tyree Jackson to be placed on IR after initial 53 man roster. (IR projections 8/28)

What’s Important From Training Camp Week 1

Everybody has seen the notes from the first few days of camp and I’m not writing the same post. What I am doing here is grabbing points that I think are most relevant for the season and future of the Eagles. If you have read my prior posts, I have dug into their draft philosophy and which positions they need to invest in in the future, what metrics or performance are most important and ones we need to pay attention to for the success of the team, and what we should likely expect from key players or units. My perspective on camp here will tie back to all of these.

Is Jalen Hurts our answer at QB?

Quicker decisions and reducing turnovers

Jalen Hurts

The #1 question is “is Hurts our go-forward QB?” and to answer that, it is “can he improve accuracy and reads?” I previously wrote on Hurts’ often talked about near-bottom-of-the-league completion percentage and completion percentage over expectations (CPOE). I do not think his accuracy is going to be a problem. First, last season was a small sample size and other good QBs – Luck, Lamar, Kyler Murray, and Josh Allen although he is a weirder example as he never showed accuracy in college and improved dramatically in the pros which really doesn’t happen – had similar poor stats if you only looked at their first four starts. Hurts had near elite college CPOE which will follow him to the pros.

What Hurts absolutely needs to improve on are two things:

  • Making decisions and releasing the ball quicker
  • And reducing turnovers (which unfortunately, like his accuracy, also was a defining college trait)

Quicker decisions: The story this week was Hurts had a “not good” day 1, a better day 2, and a very good day 3 in camp, and was inconsistent on day 4. For whatever camp stats are worth, his top line numbers are good – prior to day 4, Hurts had a 30/44, 6 TD, 1 INT line (the TD line is misleading as there have been a lot of redzone drills).

We would all take stats like that during the season, but late decisions and throws don’t necessarily show up as incompletions, they can be completions where the receiver isn’t in a position for a big gain due to the late delivery. And camp notes point to Hurts still not getting rid of the ball quickly enough.

From Mike Kaye’s (@mike_e_kaye) camp notes here at NJ.com:

Hurts has gotten better in each of the three practices, which is a positive sign given his history of career growth. There’s really no panic in him, which is both a blessing and a curse. He’s holding onto the ball a bit longer than you’d like, and that’s been an issue through all three days of work.

Mike Kaye – NJ.com

And from Saturday, Brandon Lee Gowton made the same comment in his notes: “Still would like to see him get the ball out quicker at times and avoid inviting pressure.”

I mentioned Thomas Peterson’s break down of every Jalen Hurts 2020 throw previously – if you have not watched it and have an hour, go do so as it provides so much context on the top-level stats that people are making declarations on. A lot of Hurts’ stats issues were due to pressure but there were many times last year where Hurts made a late decision or held the ball just a bit too long – here are two examples from the Saints game, but there were too many of these last year in his four games:

I am optimistic on Hurts, but this is something he needs to improve on. The offense should help here as we are already seeing Sirianni’s quick hitting, timing routes show up in camp.

Limiting turnovers: Camp is not going to be a good test of turnovers as the QB can’t be hit, his scrambling will be more limited and less realistic, and even interceptions are often because they are working concepts. But turnovers are the biggest thing I see that can derail his career – he was bottom third of the league in interception rate (2%) and off the charts on fumble rate (almost 5% of dropbacks). Saturday he fumbled a snap and had an interception to TJ on a poor throw. The one thing that is good is the focus the coaching staff is drilling ball security for the offense and ball attacking for the defense which should elevate everybody.

Do we finally have an explosive WR unit?

DeVonta is the real deal, Reagor needs to start popping up in camp notes

Eagles wide receivers

For the Eagles to finally have the passing attack we need, DeVonta needs to be what we expect him to be and Reagor needs to advance in year two. After WR1 and WR2, I fully expect among Ward, Quez, Fulgham, and Hightower we will have solid receivers that give the Eagles options with deep speed and YAC ability. A few points from the first few days of camp:

DeVonta:

  • DeVonta had some uncharacteristic drops in the first couple of days, but also showed his potential with a 60+ yard completion, beating CB2 Steve Nelson and S K’Von Wallace in double team with release at the line.
  • DeVonta leads the Eagles with 5 TDs in the first three days (again, camp stats but it says something as he is consistently getting open in redzone drills).
  • And most importantly, DeVonta has such high expectations on himself and you see everyday that he is serious on perfecting his craft (like asking Slay what he needs to change on routes, being first in all drills).

Reagor:

  • We have not see much from Reagor as he was limited in practice but he has the raw traits – I mentioned before his elite separation stats in his rookie season (95th percentile). Day 4 he finally ran some team drills and had a notable route against Slay where he generated good separation. I keep saying it, but Reagor will be good – with his traits, it would be more unlikely that he isn’t good.

Ward / Fulgham / Quez / Hightower / JJAW:

  • Hightower has the skills needed but is still showing too much up and down. Last year he clearly had an ability to get open deep (including against Steve Nelson in the PIT game) but had some drops. While flashing early in camp some this year, he has also continued to show trouble tracking balls which earned him a pull-aside from Sirianni on Saturday.
  • There isn’t much else to focus on yet as Ward, Fulgham, and Quez have been limited. Fulgham also possesses high separation scores (76th percentile) and Quez showed great agility with and without the ball last year when he finally got an opportunity. Quez did have one of the catches of the day on Saturday as he is starting to work in drills.
  • I didn’t mention JJAW, he had a couple of nice moments but I don’t see how he makes the team unless Hightower really falters. And he really shouldn’t. I value traits (those that matter) more than many, but JJAW just doesn’t have them – he cannot separate or generate YAC… from the draft forward, he has been billed as a jump ball guy which is just not a reason to keep a receiver.

How do we think about future draft needs?

In the “this is way too early” section, how the young players elevate will impact future needs. Despite it being early, there are clear future needs for the Eagles to use their three two first round picks on, which are, in rough order:

  • Cornerback
  • Offensive line
  • Linebacker
  • Defensive line

Cornerback: Nothing is going to change the future need at cornerback. Slay’s cap hit is $22M next year with “only” a $7.5M dead cap hit if he is moved after June 1. They could keep him next year but that is a big number and you cannot keep extending him due to his age. Nelson is on a one-year and if he performs, he will get paid next year. I would not be surprised if one is still with the team next year but given corners take time to develop, the Eagles have to invest next year. The two things to watch for the future are:

  • Does Gannon really elevate the secondary (outside of Slay and Nelson)? I have little faith in the Eagles secondary beyond Slay and Nelson and will be glad to be surprised here.
  • What does McPhearson become? Given Nelson’s arrival, Zech’s play time will likely be limited. Very early in camp, but Zech has been sticky in coverage and gotten his hands on the ball a couple of times. While not talked about much in the draft and dismissed a bit because of playing in the Big 12, he does have some underappreciated stats (4th highest graded CB in single coverage and 3rd highest against Power 5 WRs) as David wrote here.

The Eagles absolutely will need to draft one CB next year and most likely two unless Zech elevates to a CB2 able to play outside. Gannon will put the secondary in better positions to succeed and has shown success before, but he also has always had top draft picks anchoring the secondary.

Offensive line: I also previously wrote on why the offensive line will be better this year but also stressing the need to invest here in the future with an eye on the post Kelce / Brooks / Lane era. I probably seem overly negative on guys like Seumalo as I view him as good but question if is he really part of an elite line if that is what we are seeking? No matter what, I can’t see the Eagles not using a higher pick (rounds 1-3) on offensive line again next year, but here are some things to watch:

  • Is Dillard good? I saw people online almost glad to see Dillard struggle as they want Mailata to win the job which is insane. Mailata will win the job but it is in our best interest for Dillard to be good as it is depth or a trade option or allows Mailata to eventually move to RT. It’s still early but it looks like Dillard’s weaknesses against power are still showing up. What is additionally concerning is he was beat this week on outside and inside moves as well.
  • Is Herbig a guard of the future? I may also be too tempered in expectations here but it is just so rare for an UDFA to really be great. I love the work he put in, his mental approach, and him dropping weight so maybe I will be surprised. Same with Opeta.

Like corner, I don’t see how the Eagles don’t invest here in the future as there are long-term needs at both tackle and guard.

Linebacker: I wrote previously criticizing Howie’s de-prioritization of linebacker and the importance of the position in today’s league due to mismatches. I do agree on limiting investment as you really only need one really good LB and often a safety serves as this role (as Jenkins did for us). We have a lot of young bodies at LB and we need to specifically watch Davion, JaCoby, and K’Von (safety capable of the hybrid role):

  • Explosiveness and agility are the two critical traits that are demanded of today’s top LBs and of the Eagles LBs, Davion and JaCoby are the ones with these traits. It is great to see Davion getting first team reps and clearly a player we need to elevate. Of all things to watch this year at LB, Davion is it.
  • JaCoby was a puzzle pre-draft, viewed as a round 1 talent years ago but knocked for questions on his role in the NFL and a down senior season (by the entire LSU defense). It’s hard to expect much from pick 224 in the draft but he does have the athletic traits. Things to watch with JaCoby when he makes the field are if his athletic traits translate to the field, if he can disrupt routes, and can he shed blocks in the run game.
  • Can K’von Wallace serve as a hybrid defender? He also has elite testing in explosiveness and agility. His usage at Clemson and pre-draft profile all point towards this type of role with strengths in blitzing and against the run, ability to play slot, but concerns in deeper coverage. He is light for this type of role but not different than a Malcolm. I’m excited to see K’Von play this year and he also points to this defense as a better fit for his skills than last year.

Defensive line: This one will seem odd to most to be on the list as DL is viewed as probably the top one or two strengths of the team. But Fletch is getting older and it is doubtful the Eagles pay both Sweat and Barnett after this season. It is still a good unit but I worry about depth and the future here.

  • How good is Milton Williams? I am high on him for his athletic traits and also because DL was underdrafted this year, Williams being only the 4th DT drafted and historically, top five DTs drafted are average to above average players.
  • Not much news on Marlon Tuipulotu but he should rotate in this year and he could be an underappreciated value for the Eagles. He reminds me so much of Bennie Logan but with slightly more pass rush or pocket disruption upside.
  • And lastly Tarron Jackson who has had some flashes early. Again, it is tough to expect a starter with the 191st pick with EDGE being one of the worst positions historically to get value late in the draft.

If Milton and Marlon both turn out, this lessens the future need for the Eagles but the need to start looking at a post Cox / Graham era.

What is this year’s most interesting / fun story?

Clearly Tyree Jackson. Making the roster is an uphill battle but jeez, that size and skillset… I’ll just leave his Relative Athletic Score profile as a tight end here.

He will be fun to watch.

The Carson Wentz Era is Over

With a possible surgery looming, and a likelihood of not playing the required snaps to give the Eagles the desired first round pick (now a second), maybe fans can finally move on. There would be no reason to pay attention to him anymore. It also might be the end of the 3 firsts to Houston for Watson talk as well.

Feb 18, 2021

The Philadelphia Eagles did today what many would have thought unthinkable three years ago. The Eagles have traded their presumed future and now former franchise Quarterback, Carson Wentz.

During the end of the 2020 season when Wentz was benched for the final four games, many thought that could be an early indication he was going to be dealt away this offseason. When Head Coach Doug Pederson was fired, the assumption was it was due to their irreconcilable relationship and that Carson was now entrenched as the Captain and starter of the team going forward. The QB and Head Coach carousel has lasted over a month. After a long, and reported 25 person candidate pool to replace Pederson, the Eagles decided on the Colts offensive coordinator, Nick Sirianni, for that job.  Now, after another long search for the perfect trade partner to deal Wentz, the Eagles once again decide on the Colts. Carson Wentz was traded to the Indianapolis Colts today for a 2021 third round pick and a conditional 2022 second round that could turn into a first if Wentz plays 75% of the snaps or 70% and Colts make the playoffs.

It will likely be a couple of years before we will know if the Eagles have made the right move in changing coaches and moving on from their QB, but it would seem there was no way to repair the relationship between Carson and the front office. Wentz hasn’t publicly spoken about the reasoning for the eventual divorce. Maybe it was the head coach, though many reports dispute that, or maybe it was the front office with Howie Roseman and the usage of the 2020 second round pick for QB Jalen Hurts. Either way its not a good look for the franchise or the player. Losing a 28 yr old former front running MVP of the league candidate in 2017 is a tough pill to swallow, especially after factoring in all the resources that were put into those trades to get to number two overall for that selection. Not to mention the Eagles will be taking the largest dead money cap hit, 33.8 million, in NFL history after signing him to a four year contract extension a little over a year and a half ago. The Eagles made draft picks and free agent acquisitions with Wentz at the forefront of every decision (Jalen Hurts pick aside) for the past four seasons. Admitting that was a mistake and moving on is costly, but compounding what you believe to be a problem and not doing anything about it, would be egregious.

Quez Watkins, The Forgotten Weapon, Don’t Be A Fan Later

Most of the offseason has been spent fantasizing about the potential of DeVonta Smith, rightly so, or lamenting the fact that the Eagles didn’t draft or trade for an elite CB. (I had to at least mention cornerback, the site is phillycovercorner.com after all) A lot of message board comments and tweets have also been focused on tearing down last years first round pick, Jalen Reagor, or commenting on how excited they are to see him paired with Smith. Quez Watkins has rarely been mentioned this offseason, and seems to be the forgotten weapon. 

Quez has quietly gone about his offseason building chemistry and working out with QB Jalen Hurts as well as putting in time in the weight room. He is visibly stronger from where he was last year, and appears to be benefiting from being with the team for an entire offseason. The limited videos the Eagles have released of the offseason workouts, and the clips online training with QB Hurts, show his speed and sharp route running. A full season with Hurts as QB1 could be huge for his development and the opportunities he will have going into his second season. 

Last year Quez played 119 snaps on offense. He was never targeted by Carson Wentz, and had only 20 of those 119 snaps during the first three months of the season. When Jalen Hurts took over versus the Saints in week 13, Quez started to make the most of his limited opportunities. Over the final four games of the season he was targeted 13 times, bringing in 7 receptions for 106 yards and one touchdown. He also excited the fan base with 2 of those receptions (one of those  a 32 yd TD against the Cardinals) being over 30 yards, bringing some much needed big play ability to the offense. Watkins averaged a robust 17.7 yards per catch. 

Extrapolating those statistics over a full season would roughly translate to 35 receptions for 575 yards and 5 touchdowns. Not bad for a sixth round draft pick out of Southern Mississippi who was brought in with little to no fan fare. Infact, most of the Eagles beat writers didn’t even think Quez would make the roster. Assuming he could put up those numbers over the course of a season may be bit ambitious considering these numbers are based off such a small sample size, and likely as a 4th or 5th receiver. But Quez has demonstrated a quick burst, good hands, and lots of confidence. He looks poised to make a significant jump in year two. 

Coach Siranni will have lots of different lineup options available with the probable wideout core of Ward, Reagor, Smith, Fulgham and Quez at his disposal. (Not to mention the TE’s of Ertz and Goddert.) Quez could be another big play threat and bring much needed swagger to the position, along with Reagor and Smith.

Watkins threw up a peace sign after he scored his first NFL touchdown, but he wants nothing more than to cause quite the opposite to opposing DB’s this upcoming season. 

As his twitter handle states “Don’t be a fan later..”

David

7-26-21

Thank You for reading. Follow me at @PHLEagleNews

Quick Thoughts on New Eagle Steven Nelson

There is absolutely nothing to dislike about the Eagles signing free agent corner Steven Nelson because the corner two spot was going to be a battle between Avonte (who has proven over and over again he isn’t an outside corner), Zech McPhearson (which is a lot to ask of a rookie 4th rounder), and Michael Jacquet. But what should we expect with Nelson?

While I am from Philly, I lived in Pittsburgh for twenty years and follow the Steelers second to the Eagles. Steeler fans had mixed feelings on Nelson – while he shined in 2019, he started off 2020 worse and had some notable down games:

  • In two of the first three games of the 2020 season, Nelson allowed 150+ passer ratings against the Giants and Houston, giving up 2 touchdowns
  • Against Buffalo, Nelson had a 37.6 coverage grade giving up 82 yards and a touchdown, covering Stefon Diggs often
  • He had a 54.2 coverage grade against the Colts but when you look at his coverage, most of the yards he gave up were in coverage against RB Nyheim Hines (but did give up one a 25 yarder to TY Hilton)

But as recently as last week, media in Pittsburgh were still thinking (hoping) he could return to the Steelers and viewed him remaining unsigned as a great sign. The Steelers cut Nelson for cap reasons only, despite some of the early season concerns.

What are we getting?

In a colossal understatement, we are getting a giant upgrade over our CB2 options. But Nelson still compares well to other top corners.

This article over on BehindTheSteelCurtain.com does a great job giving context on Nelson’s 2020 season and I encourage you to take a look at it. The key points are that the Steelers used Nelson much more to cover shorter routes in 2020 and that despite his stats looking worse, the Steelers overall defense on his side of the field got better. But there are great film clips in the article that provide a lot more detail.

Now from an analytics perspective, Nelson still compares favorably in the league. Below shows the percentile ranks of Nelson and Avonte on Expected Points Saved (a view on how many Expected Points Added they gave up when defending passes) and Defensive Impacts (passes defended, interceptions, forced fumbles, tackled for loss, and QB hits). Nelson not only is an upgrade, but is still top third of the league in EPA saved.

Next, the chart below shows Nelson with Darius Slay, Avonte, Crevon LeBlanc (I included him even though he just signed with Miami as he was an option for the Eagles), as well as many of the top corners in the league. The x axis shows Expected Points Added (EPA) allowed per target, with lower numbers (to the right) being better. The y axis shows Completion Percentage Over Expected, a better measure than pure completion percentage allowed as it factors in what the completion percentage was expected to be (screens have higher expected completions than downfield passes). Like EPA, a lower CPOE is better (higher on the chart is better). Higher and to the right on the chart is better. Nelson is right in the middle and above any of the Eagles corners.

Next, the below shows Win Percentage Added (WPA) per target on the y axis with the same EPA per target on the x axis. WPA measures how much the offense’s win percentage went up after a play where the corner was defending. Again, higher and to the right on the chart is better.

The above stats may be a bit unfair to Darius Slay as he always covered the top receiver where Nelson did not have that duty – he was clearly the CB2 on the Steelers behind Joe Haden. Nelson is not up with the elite corners in the league, but gives the Eagles their second CB they absolutely needed.

The other day I posted my prediction for the 2021 Eagles season and am more bullish on their record than most. The secondary was obviously one of the risk areas, with my concern being the absence of a CB2 could make the defense exploitable to the point that scoring didn’t matter. Nelson reduces this risk greatly and should make Eagles fans feel great about the Eagles upside this year. Here are my overall thoughts on Nelson and the Eagles secondary overall:

  • The concerns in Pittsburgh (by some, not all) that Nelson was in decline are not accurate. He should not, however, be expected to be a shutdown corner and if there is valid criticism from last year, it is when he went up against receivers like Stefon Diggs or Amari Cooper.
  • This is obviously a one year deal and does not solve anything long-term for the Eagles. Slay is aging and carries a $22 million cap hit next year. Maybe Nelson is extended. Maybe McPhearson works out but expecting a 4th rounder to be a CB1 is highly unlikely. The Eagles will still need to invest one or two top picks on corners in the 2022 draft.

Why the 2021 Eagles Will Beat Their 6.5 Win Projection

9/3/21 Update: I just released my full NFC win predictions and in that post, the Eagles are at 8.9 wins vs. 9.7 wins below. The difference is almost totally due to a change in the Eagles 2021 strength of schedule. This article was written early and used the initial view that the Eagles had the easiest SoS in the league. After modeling all teams, the Eagles SoS was updated to 9th which is worth over half a game. An additional adjustment to reduce Hurts’ expected value to make the Eagles forecast more conservative was also made. Regardless, the Eagles are expected to significantly outperform their over/under line and all the reasons below are still valid.

The various betting lines currently all have the Eagles at 6.5 wins in 2021, slightly better than last year’s record with concerns on their aging lineup, Hurts as the long-term answer, a new coaching staff, and a declining defense with only one legitimate cornerback. But that undershoots the Eagles likeliest outcome when you use a build-up of their team value data, which gives a 9.7 win target in 2021.

Background on the analytics of team value vs. win percentage

If you have read anything else here by me, you will see Approximate Value (AV) metrics used. AV is a measure of a player’s value and is at its core based on the ability to score more than expected (for offenses) or prevent scoring more than expected (for defenses). Football is such an exceedingly complicated sport that individual player AV (or any metric, like EPA or WAR) is useful but prone to variation. But when aggregating player data, these metrics become exceedingly valuable as stable and predictive metrics.

Below are the last 20 years of team AV vs. win percentage which shows a strong relationship (with an R2 of 0.80 meaning 80% of a team’s win percentage is explained by the team’s aggregate AV). Approximately every 10AV gain for a team correlates to one additional win. If you prefer EPA to AV, it has the same relationship to win percentage and R2.

Team AV vs Win Percentage

And for the Eagles specifically, you can see how their total team AV (solid blue line) has tracked to win percentage (blue dashed line) over time:

Eagles team AV vs. Win Percentage

I won’t get into the details of the math and modeling here (and will probably write a separate post on it so I can keep this one more focused on the Eagles), but two important points:

  1. Understanding what a team’s AV is a useful view into their potential and likely performance.
  2. AV, like almost all metrics, is a two-way metric, meaning better players have higher AV values which contributes to winning, but also a team winning raises the players AV scores. An example is a better offensive line will reduce QB pressure which has a known, dramatic improvement on output (over a 100 point swing on DVOA) which will raise skill position values.

Assumptions for the 2021 Eagles

To get a view on the Eagles 2021 team AV, you have to make assumptions on the team, what will improve, what declines, and the impact of added and lost players. The model I use has assumptions on every player, even if only age-based performance declines or growth-based improvements, but I will only list the major assumptions here:

Jalen Hurts will be in the top half of the league in total value (14AV vs. 8 AV in 2020): Note that this includes passing and running value – he could be lower ranked as a passer but still provide greater than average value because of his elite running ability. Hurts even being a non-awful QB causes a noticeable uptick in team value just because of how historically bad Wentz was last year. At 14AV, this puts Hurts around Derek Carr and Kirk Cousins in total value. The one concern area for me on Hurts is his turnover rate. For a deeper dive on Hurts, please see this previous post: https://phillycovercorner.com/2021/06/what-can-we-expect-jalen-hurts-to-be-in-2021/

Eagles 2021 offensive line

The offensive line will return to above average, but not elite, performance (46AV vs 35AV in 2020): The OL was historically injured last year, with the line missing 71 total games. Just being somewhat healthier makes this an average or better OL, we don’t even need to assume full health. And there are other reasons to be optimistic. The depth is better as Driscoll and Herbig have more experience. We have to assume the personnel choices will be better (no more putting JP out there when it is obvious he was done). And despite the huge disappointment with Dillard, him being healthy and in the mix helps. For a deeper dive on the OL, there is more detail in this prior post: https://phillycovercorner.com/2021/07/the-eagles-offensive-line-2021-outlook/

DeVonta will really be that good (8AV): I try to make assumptions that are balanced and do not overly lean optimistic, but I also put down what I believe and what past data supports. DeVonta will outperform expectations, with current betting odds between 750 and 800 yards. Top 10 receivers that have started and played the majority of their rookie season (13 games or more) have averaged 908 yards. DeVonta will be the Eagles first 1,000 yard receiver this year. Even as bullish as I am on DeVonta, I have him modeled at 8AV in his rookie season, which is equal to CeeDee Lamb (and below Justin Jefferson who was 12AV in his first year). Again, for more detail on why I believe the data supports DeVonta outperforming this season, see this prior post: https://phillycovercorner.com/2021/05/devonta-smith-will-hit-the-over-on-everything/

The defensive line will be similar to, but slightly down from, last year (27AV vs. 34AV in 2020): I am really excited about Josh Sweat and think he will shine in increased playing time. And I like both Milton Williams with his athleticism and Marlon Tuipulotu who reminds me of Bennie Logan, but both are rookies. On the other side, Cox is getting older, it would be a lot to ask Graham to repeat his huge 2020, and Kerrigan is a nice add but he has shown a decline and should not be expected to be more than a good rotational piece.

The secondary will not be good, but could be slightly better than last year (no change at 21AV): Declaring a bad Eagles secondary is the least surprising assumption here as they don’t have a CB2. If they do make a move and add a Steven Nelson or Xavien Howard, it changes this dramatically. But I do think Gannon’s history shows that we should expect some uptick in the secondary, although we should not expect magic here – Gannon has improved his secondaries but he has also consistently had talent with 1st and 2nd round picks. The Eagles lost Jalen Mills, but Anthony Harris is an equivalent replacement. I am no fan of Avonte (and we share the same alma mater) but he will be used in a better spot (slot or safety). Some added detail on Gannon’s potential impact https://phillycovercorner.com/2021/05/what-can-we-expect-from-jonathan-gannon-on-the-eagles-secondary/ and some optimism on Zech McPhearson https://phillycovercorner.com/2021/07/zech-mcphearson-might-be-the-cb-fans-have-been-asking-for/

Miles Sanders and Jalen Reagor will both show upticks in value (20AV vs. 14AV in 2020): We should finally (unless Lurie continues to intervene) see a more balanced offense which will mean more touches for Sanders. Miles’ receiving issues last year I am assuming were an outlier and he will improve there to at least back to average. And much of the fanbase is way too pessimistic on Reagor – I wrote before on the wide receiver efficiency metrics (which includes separation, catch %, and yards-after-catch ability) as a good predictor of WR value. Reagor was 95th percentile last year in separation and 76th percentile in YAC – receivers with those attributes are all good. And while he has things to clean up as any rookie will (some route running, reduce drops), the tape shows he was open a ton last year and a huge amount of the issue was Carson.

The linebackers are still an issue but Eric Wilson is an upgrade (22 AV vs. 20AV): It will be interesting to see if any of the safeties-turned-linebacker turn into long-term LB answers as the Eagles must invest here if they do not. Like cornerback, I am not modeling linebacker as a strength, but it will be slightly better because Eric Wilson is better than Nate Gerry. Wilson is a strength in coverage but not great in run defense so he and Singleton will need to blend well (run defense overall is a growing concern of mine for the Eagles which is why I am excited for Tuipulotu).

Using the above assumptions, the Eagles end with a team AV of 208 (adding in bench and special teams AV which I did not go into here and is less important than starter value). And while preseason strength of schedule (SoS) is of questionable value, there is some historical correlation of SoS to win percentage. The league’s weakest SoS (which is what the Eagles have entering the 2021 season) has correlated to a +9 AV bump, bringing the Eagles to 217 AV. This projects to a 57% win percentage, or 9.7 wins in a 17 game season.

What could go wrong

Obviously, a ton could go wrong. Historic injury levels again… Covid-related game impacts given the recently announced forfeit rule… a more-than-anticipated drop off in aging players performance… Jamon Brown and his league-leading offensive sack rate or Matt Pryor finding their way to significant playing time again. But below are the most relevant risks that would have a material impact:

  1. Hurts struggles, does not improve his accuracy, and does not improve his turnover rate.
  2. The coaching staff, who were all elevated into a higher role with responsibilities they have not had before, struggles with playcalling and game management. Of all the risks, this is the one that worries me the most – it is expecting a lot for the staff to come out sharp from game 1.
  3. DeVonta does not perform, which puts pressure back on last year’s receiving group and Reagor does not take a step up.
  4. The secondary becomes a huge exploitable hole in the defense, either because the coaching staff is not able to scheme around the weakness or Darius Slay either misses significant time or has another drop in performance.

As I always joke, I don’t gamble because I have had way too much statistics in my life and think line-setting and line accuracy is an amazing example of large-sample size math. But gambling lines are really built to get equal bets on both sides, not necessarily to predict what will happen. Every year the NFL surprises as teams rise and fall. Even if I look at this critically, assuming a line near last year’s Eagles performance is just way too pessimistic and not supported by the build-up of player data.

Update (7/26/21)

I’ve either gotten excitement as many are optimistic on the Eagles or “are you crazy, they stunk last year” comments. Going to 10 wins seemed big even when I was writing this but I believe in the data associated with the changes that can be expected. But I did want to dig into the data on win total changes and found some interesting stats I wanted to update here:

  • Across all teams since 2001, the average win difference year-to-year is 3 wins (2.9 to be exact). So, the “average” team should expect to be plus or minus 3 wins from the prior year.
  • 10% of teams (66 of 638 “team seasons” since 2001) have improved by 5 games or more which is what I am saying above.
  • But, if you narrow into teams with losing records (because teams at say 10 wins have less ability to add 5 wins), the number of teams that added 5 wins grows to 20%
  • And if you narrow further to teams with 4 or fewer wins as the Eagles had last year (I am ignoring the tie), only 14% had the same or worse the following season. The average win improvement was 4.2 wins and 36% improved by 5 or more games.

Of course these are just averages and it depends on why the team was bad – some were a good team that lost their QB, some had coaching changes. But the original article above is why I believe not only that 2020 was worse than it should have been (Wentz historically awful, the OL injury rate), but why 2021 should be much better. Heck, the Eagles themselves have twice done what I am saying above in the past nine years (2012 and 2016).

Former Philadelphia Eagles CB Mark “Mighty Mouse” McMillian

NFL player, Emmy Award winner, outreach program founder, and a Master Griller. Quite the resume’. Mark McMillian had just begun making his impact on the world when he started his Pro career in the city of Brotherly love.

The Philadelphia Eagles drafted Mark in the 10th RD with the 272nd pick in the 1992 NFL Draft. He played his collegiate ball at the University of Alabama after transferring from Glendale Junior College. Affectionately called “Mighty Mouse” by his teammates, due to his 5 foot 7 stature and strong willed determination, he quickly became another underdog (in a city with a lot of them) that the fans rooted for. (Mark is listed as one of the ten shortest players to ever play in the NFL. He is the only one of the ten to play cornerback. Quite an achievement.) 

Mark found himself on the field in all 16 games during his rookie season of 1992 (starting 3) and he recorded his first career INT. Mark also started both playoffs games in the 92 season against the Saints and Cowboys, respectively. He was gaining valuable experience as well as leaving quite an impression on his teammates and coaches.

Eagles HC Rich Kotite to Terry Larmier of The Morning call in 1992

“I can see him playing more and more because he’s contributing.”

Continuing to contribute he did. By week 13, against a highly favored SF 49ers team, the rookie had become a part of the nickel coverage. Mark never lacking confidence, didn’t shy away from the question when asked about playing against the 49ers and potentially going up against Jerry Rice, Mark had this to say to Terry at The Morning call

“I’m just going to have to step my game up a little higher, Actually, I’m pretty much excited by the fact that I’m getting to play (against) Jerry Rice. Not many guys get a chance to stick Jerry Rice,” 

And by stick, he meant cover. Sticking with him.

By the 1993 season Mark was “sticking” as a regular in the starting lineup at LCB. He started 12 of the 16 games at left corner that season and never gave up that job until he left via free agency. Mark also never missed a game during his time in Philadelphia. 

He finished his time in Eagle green by recording 2 interceptions in his final 2 post season starts with the Birds. (one in each of the 2 playoff games) including the wild and memorable playoff win against the Detroit Lions.

Mark’s impactful 4 year tenure (1992-95) as a Philadelphia Eagle earned him a spot on the Eagles top 12 corners of the past 40 years (shameless plug):

https://phillycovercorner.com/2021/06/the-eagles-top-12-corners-since-1980/ 

Mark responding to the article stated

“Appreciate that. Not bad for a 10th Rd guy up against a bunch of 1st and 2nd rounders”

Not bad at all Sir!

Mark would play 4 mores seasons in the NFL. In 1997 while playing for the Chiefs, he led the NFL in interception return yards and was tied for 2nd most interceptions in the league with 8. He also ran 3 of those back for a touchdown.  He accomplished all of that while only starting 10 of the 16 games that season. Mark would finish his NFL career following the 1999 season, after playing for both the San Francisco 49ers and the now Washington Football Team.

Speaking with Jim Gehman back in 2020, Mark stated what he was most proud of from his career

“I would say just having respect from the guys. From the teams. From my opponents,” he says. “We play this game and everybody can’t make it into the Hall of Fame, and everybody’s not going to win a Super Bowl, but when you can get a guy like a Reggie White or an Eric Allen or playing against a Cris Carter or Art Monk, guys that are in the Hall of Fame, give you props after a game, you can’t put a price tag on that.”

Mark, who currently has a couple business ventures, always had an entrepreneurial spirit. During his time in Philadelphia he was one of the founders of “Little Big Men” with fellow Eagles teammate Jeff Sydner. Mark told me that the segment, Little Big Men, showcased the highlights from players under 6 feet.  In October of 1995, McMillian, who was a broadcast journalism major at Alabama, won an Emmy Award for his segment which aired on teammate Randall Cunningham’s weekly pregame show.

His positive attitude, determination and perseverance have always been a hallmark of his character, and he’s still out there continuing to prove that he can do anything he puts his mind to.

Today Mark can be found utilizing that same savvy business sense, promoting his newer endeavors. The first came about from his love of grilling. Mark explained to me “I started Grilling McMillian in 2010. I wanted to bring together friends, teammates, and families through grilling.”  With his mission of inspiring palates around the world. To bring togetherness and unity through a unique cooking experience. To create value and make a difference.

You can visit his website for Grill’n McMillian at the link below.

https://www.grillnwithmcmillian.com

Mark also described to me his newest venture that he is very proud of,  LIFT “I launched my LIFT program for high school kids that are being bullied. I want to launch the program in cities across the country to help bring more awareness, and give these young men a platform where they can feel comfortable, as well as (myself) doing camps and retreats with these young men.” The Lift Program was created through The Griffin Gives Foundation, a 501c3 not for profit foundation which is committed to supporting the health and wellness of children.  You can find more information regarding this wonderful program at:

https://ourliftprogram.org

Get to know Mark following him via social media. He is very active on his twitter handle.

@MarkMcMillian29