Finally getting into the NFL Hall of Fame, Harold Carmichael was one of the original mismatch nightmares in the NFL. At 6’10”, he still is the tallest wide receiver to play in the league. More than just height, Carmichael had speed for his size – he was rumored to have run a 4.6 40 but his speed was more dangerous on the field as he got going with his long stride. David just wrote an article on Carmichael (https://phillycovercorner.com/2021/08/hof-wr-harold-carmichael-the-wait-is-finally-over/) and it got me thinking about another potential mismatch-maker in camp this year in Tyree Jackson.
The importance of mismatches in the NFL
Even more so than in Carmichael’s day, NFL offenses are about creating mismatches with motion or disguise, the rise of running backs and tight ends in the passing game, mobile quarterbacks, and elite athletes that can just win. Sharp Football Analysis has a great look at the importance of mismatches here where they looked specifically at running backs or wide receivers on linebackers. In it, they found that:
- When failing to create a mismatch, offenses create negative 1.2 EPA (Expected Points Added) per 60 plays
- But when they do create a mismatch, their EPA per 60 plays is positive 1.8 EPA
A 4.0 Expected Points Added swing between plays with mismatches and those without. And Sharp found that there was carryover to the run game, with a 3.6 EPA per 60 play benefit when rushes occurred with a mismatch in coverage (as the mismatch draws attention).
The Eagles need for playmakers
Sharp’s data is from 2019 where the Eagles were 30th in the league in creating offensive mismatches. And when you look at explosive play rate (defined as a pass over 16 yards or a run over 12 yards), the Eagles have consistently – with the exception of the 2017 season – allowed more explosive plays than they created. The below chart shows the Eagles explosive play rate (blue line) vs. the average playoff team (grey line).
Tyree as a mismatch threat
Tyree has unique size and speed at 6’7″, a 4.59 40, and a 7.09 three cone. Tight ends today are big, but he still stands out.
Below shows the league’s tight ends by height (Y axis) and 40 time (X axis) with the top ranked tight ends by PFF in red. Just because somebody is tall or fast or both does not guarantee success, but the top tight ends definitely skew tall. 40 time is not quite as correlated. But at the very top of the graph in the middle you find Tyree Jackson.
Looking at height vs. arm length, again Tyree shows up at the top with his tackle-ready 34.25 arms.
If you compare Tyree to just the Eagles current tight ends, you see an even starker athletic difference:
His size stands out at camp.
Again, just being big and fast does not mean success as there is so much that goes into being successful. But he is in a good spot to learn what he needs to:
- He will need to learn the offense which as an ex-quarterback nobody should be worried about.
- He needs to learn to run routes and judging by the attention to detail by the new staff, he probably couldn’t be in a better place. Today he spoke about how much detailed coaching he is getting.
- And he needs to be a solid blocker.
So much is up in the air with the tight end depth chart because of uncertainty with Zach Ertz and if Ertz is on the team, it makes the third TE spot a really difficult decision. But Tyree has the potential to be a mismatch for the Eagles offense which they desperately need. He has shown a lot in camp in the first week and will need to pop in joint practices and preseason games, but I would really think hard about what he could become for the Eagles in the future. His size and speed does not come along often at all.
And, with Hurts’ speed at QB and ex-QB Tyree at TE, the Eagles next Super Bowl Philly Special will have a range from the 50 yard line in…