Revisiting last week
Before last week’s first preseason game against the Steelers, I listed 5 things I was watching for:
- How is Hurts’ timing and decision-making?
- Are Reagor, Fulgham, and Quez separating?
- How do we defend Chase Claypool?
- How does the OL look?
- How does Tyree look in a real game?
I picked these because most of them are tied to the biggest unknowns that will drive the Eagles success this year. After the game and joint practices this week, I am more optimistic on the Eagles. A few thoughts on the above:
- I’ve said Hurts’ accuracy isn’t an issue, it is his timing (being late on throws) and poor decisions that lead to his way-too-high turnover rate. Hurts showed better rhythm in the passing game on several passes (the Goedert pass, the couple Ertz passes) and you can see this as his throws are generating yards after the catch. The only dropback that was a test of his decision making was the one throwaway – I do wonder if he would have tried to force something on that last year.
- Quez and Reagor both separated well. It is finally starting to be recognized that this WR crew is going to be good. As I keep saying, they have the traits (separation, ability to create) that matter and showed it in this week. Fulgham has not popped this year yet but has had better practices.
- The Steelers didn’t play Ben and Claypool only had 10 snaps, but he wasn’t targeted at all and his one run was covered extremely well by the Eagles defense which definitely has more “swarm” to it this year. Claypool is exactly the matchup problem the Eagles have been bad at covering for years so this was good to see, albeit limited snaps.
- The OL looked good, generally giving Hurts good protection, and the Steelers defense is very, very good (the front seven). We still need to see more from them but this OL will be much better than last year.
- Tyree looked really good but unfortunately his injury is going to most likely redshirt him this year. I still believe he has the potential to be a matchup problem for Eagles opponents in the future.
I actually think the Steelers are poised to way underperform this year as their OL is awul, Ben is not what he used to be, they lost more than they added in the offseason, and they invested in a RB and TE with their top two picks which is insanity. I’m not sure they have one tackle let alone two. But the Eagles starters looked good.
The one area that is an underrated concern for the Eagles is run defense. The Steelers had runs of 4, 6, 4, and 8 yards against the Eagles starting defense. And as I said, the Steelers OL is really bad… they were 28th and 24th in the league last year in pass block win rate and run block win rate respectively and are projected to be worse in 2021. This isn’t a team that should have run on the Eagles.
We are used to the Eagles year after year being great against the run but they aren’t anymore – last year they were 19th in the league and you can’t really point to any improvements this year… Eric Wilson is new but is a coverage linebacker, Sweat will get more playing time but is a pass rusher. The Eagles best rated run defender is Alex Singleton which isn’t a great thing.
This week against the Patriots
The Eagles “won” both sides of the ball in joint practice this week against the Patriots (quotes used as it is practice, not a game) and the Patriots will be a different test for the Eagles Thursday night. The Patriots have QB issues which led to one of my favorite stories of joint practice from K’Von Wallace:
But the Patriots will be a different test than the Steelers – they have a deep set of running backs and will likely be a top 5 rushing team in the league. Which brings me to what I am watching for this week. Most of last week continues to carry over:
1. Hurts continuing to make quick decisions and limit mistakes
Same as last week as there isn’t a more important thing to the Eagles this year than that.
2. The Eagles run defense of Damien Harris and Sony Michel
Last year Damien Harris had an 11.7% explosive run rate (85th percentile) and their second back, Sony Michel, had an 11.4% explosive run rate. As comparison, Miles Sanders had a 6% explosive rush rate. New England has a top 5 OL. Washington is a much better run defense than the Eagles and Harris had runs of 2, 8, 4, 11, and 3 to start the game against Washington. We should see more of what our run defense is this week. I would much prefer the Eagles to be good against the pass than the run, but run defense is something to watch as it is worse than most realize.
3. Reagor’s aggressiveness to the ball
I’ve been a Reagor fan because of his separation stats and his recent highlight catches have been awesome to see. He is running better, crisper routes which shows the coaching staff is as advertised. But the biggest difference I see in Reagor is how much more confident he is going up to get the ball. In a recent post, I re-watched all of his targets last year and he was better last year than most people realize, but one thing he didn’t do was go up and get the ball like he has this preseason (as an example, the pass in the endzone last year vs. Seattle is night and day from what we are seeing this year). He had a good game against the Steelers but need to see him keep building as he is capable of even more.
4. Fulgham showing up
The Eagles will be happy to have DeVonta, what Quez is showing, and what Reagor is, but it would be nice to see Fulgham start putting things together. They need a bigger receiver and Fulgham just hasn’t done enough this summer yet – maybe the four game stretch he had last year was the outlier. It pains me that JJAW will most likely make the team as he cannot separate and cannot create with the ball – for the last WR spot, I’d rather take the upside of Hightower but he hasn’t helped himself by being out. But the Eagles will want a bigger WR and Fulgham should be this receiver. He needs to show it.
5. How the interior D-line not named Cox or Hargrave performs
We know the starting front four (five) of Cox, Hargrave, Graham, Sweat, and Barnett (maybe) is very good and they have good depth at end with Kerrigan, Milton Williams, and rookie Tarron Jackson. It’s too early to talk about the draft, but most people list DE as a top need, and it may be depending on who the Eagles keep. But I am more worried on DT as after Cox and Hargrave, it is thin. The Eagles will undoubtedly need to rotate or give significant snaps to others. Milton Williams will definitely make the team and he has inside-outside versatility, but has been used primarily at DE this summer. I would like to see more what he can do inside. Then it is likely TY McGill or Hassan Ridgeway for the final DT spot. (As an aside, Marlon Tuipulotu is my “I was so, so wrong on that pick” guy and I am disappointed he is so out of his league this summer… it would have been nice if he actually developed as at least a run stuffer but he won’t make the roster).
Prediction tonight: Eagles 41, New England 33.