Like last week, I’ll avoid the same updates we have all seen from reporters online as nobody needs another recap and instead try to focus on what matters for the Eagles season with a handful of quick items.
Hurts still has one area we need to see improve
I’m still very optimistic on Hurts as he generates explosive plays and his mobility is near elite. As I mentioned before, the two things that he needs to improve on are timing of his throws and limiting turnovers.
- His deep ball continues to impress all through camp and he showed it off Sunday night at the open practice. This is important because the Eagles desperately need to be better at generating explosive plays (they have had a net negative explosive play rate the past 5 years except for 2017)
- In week 1, camp reports often mentioned that he was late on throws – those reports died down this week. We will need to see this in games, but this is absolutely something that can be learned and Sirianni’s offense should help.
- Turnovers is still a concern to me. Not so much turnovers themselves but when Hurts just makes a really bad decision. Camp stats don’t really matter, but seeing reports where he just should not have made a throw is what he needs to correct.
I showed this in my earlier Hurts article, but this shows why turnovers are a concern for him – Hurts had an above average interception rate and an off-the-charts-fumble rate in 2020.
This is one of his interceptions vs. Dallas in week 16 last year and shows a ball that should have never been thrown (this isn’t just cherry-picking a bad throw, most of his interceptions are plays where he scrambled, trying to create, and just forced a ball).
We have the best receiving unit we have had in a long time
I don’t think we as Eagles fans will ever believe we have an actual receiving unit – outside of TO and Maclin, we have generally had underperforming receivers with potential (Agholor), good receivers on the backend of their careers (Alshon, Torrey), receivers that actually didn’t have the traits needed (JJAW, Hollins, Huff, Matthews), and various reclamation projects (Dorial Green-Beckham). This unit is for real though.
Measurables along do not guarantee success, but I’ve written before on why the most important traits for receivers are the ability to separate, the ability to actually catch the ball, and the ability to create with the ball in their hands.
- DeVonta was off-the-charts elite in all three of those in college.
- Reagor is 95th percentile in separation and 76th percentile in YAC.
- We all see what Quez can do – one of the main concerns with him pre-draft was ability to release against press and he is doing it.
- Fulgham is 71st percentile in separation.
- The Eagles passing offense the past several years has really been a tight end receiving offense and while that is a problem when that IS the offense, we can’t forget about the tight ends. Goedert and Ertz (if he is on the team) are as good of a pair as the league has. And I’ve written why Tyree Jackson needs to be on the team for his upside in the passing game.
The defense should be better in all three units
We all see the defense continually winning the day in camp and especially the defensive line dominating. In 2020, so much focus was on Wentz and the offense, but in 2020 the defense had their worst statistical year since 2012-2013. The past three years the Eagles defense has finished between 12th and 15th in defensive DVOA, defensive impacts generated (QB hits, TFL, passes defended, and forced fumbles) has steadily dropped from 340 in 2017 to 224 last year (below league average), and their turnover rate has also been cut in half from 36 in 2017 to 18 tw
- The defensive line is doing everything it needs to and there is reason to be optimistic over last year with Barnett and Sweat both taking a big jump up and Hargrave being here a full season. It is hard to expect much from rookies as they need to learn how to win in the NFL, but Milton Williams is special athletically.
- The Eagles have not been able to cover mismatches it seems like for forever as it always seems like a good week to play your fantasy TE against the Eagles. I’m not sure that changes dramatically this year but there are finally options at safety and linebacker (Eric Wilson, Davion, JaCoby) that have potential. The LBs have continued to make plays in camp this year.
- And if you read my draft stuff, you know I think the Eagles need to invest in a corner high and they are not set up for the long-term here at all. The Eagles look like they have something with Zech and his week 1 of camp was not a fluke. I still think Avonte should play more safety but at least he isn’t outside this year. The secondary this year isn’t going to be the Ravens or the Bills secondary but will be improved.
What do we need to continue to see?
As we get closer to joint practices and preseason games which will be a bit better view on the team. I’m not concerned on either line and think our season will come down to a few things:
- As mentioned above, Hurts making quicker decisions on throws and limiting turnovers.
- I haven’t written on this specifically, but what the run game is. Not “do we run more” but how it is used. We will run more, but also how it benefits the passing game – passes out of play action have a higher Expected Points Added and we already know there is a return of more movement, play action, and RPOs this year should help the offense in total.
- And how our secondary does against top receivers. The secondary should be better but what matters is shutting down the WRs we have to defend this season.