1. Defensive line is going to be historically drafted (and good)
The 2011 draft is still the top year for defensive linemen with 12 going in the first round and one of the best player value years, especially at DE/EDGE where the 1st rounders averaged out as 80th percentile pros. That’s insane. Players like Von Miller, J.J. Watt, Robert Quinn, Ryan Kerrigan, Cam Heyward, and Cameron Jordan all went that year.
Will this year beat it? It is hard to say it will but it is going to be close and well better than averages. Over the past 5 years, drafts average just over 6 defensive lineman taken and over the past 10 years, it is over 7. As of this morning, Grinding the Mocks has 7 defensive lineman identified in the 1st round and I think that likely goes higher. In my “what would I do mock”, I have 9 defensive lineman with Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Keeanu Benton, and Zach Harrison in the 1st on top of the known guys.
On the quality of this class, we won’t know for years and we will have to bookmark this post, but I bet this is one of the top 2-3 defensive line classes over the past decade.
2. Ignore the noise, the Eagles are most likely taking an EDGE
Howie has been open – and recently really good – with sticking to his board and taking the best player. This will always be the best player at a position they value, so that means defensive line, offensive line, receiver, and cornerback. It could be any of those positions and but I think the stars will align that makes this most likely to be an EDGE. I wrote earlier in the cycle how Howie drafts for needs a year or two out which has more info on why.
They will love Jalen Carter and could trade up for him, but I still think Carter is going to be the first non-QB taken and probably out of reach for the Eagles with so few picks this year. I think the only WR worthy of a top-10 pick is JSN so that is unlikely. There is so much noise on the tackles and they will definitely draft OL, but I just don’t think this class matches recent top picks like Tristan Wirfs, Penei Sewell, and Charles Cross. But if the Eagles think there is one, great, take one. Nobody sees CB as a pick after they re-signed Slay and Bradberry, but that won’t matter if they like somebody enough. Gonzalez is my top guy and Devon is worthy of a pick, but I think at least one of them is gone by 10.
But at EDGE, you have Will Anderson, Tyree Wilson, and Nolan Smith who all are worthy of a top-10 pick. At least one will be there or close enough to 10 that Howie will be able to get one. For me, it is Nolan Smith who I have written and posted on plenty – I think he is one of the best EDGEs to come out in years.
3. Wide Receiver is going to have a down year and more of the best pros will come from deeper in the draft
Receiver averages just over four taken in the 1st and Grinding the Mocks has four targeted in the 1st – JSN, Jordan Addison, Quentin Johnston, and Zay Flowers. I wrote previously about how we have been spoiled with recent receiver drafts and that I expect this year to look more like the 2017 class. In 2017, we saw fewer taken (three in the 1st and three in the 2nd) but also saw more of the top value guys coming from later in the draft.
With this class full of older and undersized receivers – who historically have underperformed in the pros – I think some pro weaknesses on the top guys are being ignored and guys like Marvin Mims and Tyler Scott are way overlooked in this class.
The three guys I have been higher on than consensus through the entire draft cycle were Devon Witherspoon (who is now CB1 or CB2), Nolan Smith (who is now a favorite), and Mims. We will see where Mims goes but I think it could be and should be higher than most think.
4. Four QBs aren’t going in the top 10
This was more controversial just a week ago, but both CJ Stroud and Anthony Richardson have been dropping some. I never thought four would be taken in the top-10 – it has never happened before and last year showed that teams have some restraint. We will see if that lasts.
Obviously the more QBs that go in the top-10, the better for the Eagles, but I expect three to be taken. Who knows, but I have Carolina taking Bryce Young and Houston taking CJ Stroud – the recent noise there is either a smokescreen, a bad decision, or they really, really don’t want to work with his agent. Richardson I love and think his issues are mechanical and can be fixed. I have the Colts taking him but there are several teams that could including Detroit or Seattle that could let him develop.
I wrote more on QB dvelopment and Richardson specifically here if you missed it. Two of Richardson’s biggest issues are locking his front leg and dropping his arm which are very fixable.
5. Speaking of QB development, these are some of the picks I want to see
Again, caveat this with you have to stick to your board and not reach for a need. But if you have read my stuff, you know I am incredibly big on surrounding QBs, especially young QBs, with talent. You see what happens when it doesn’t happen in Chicago with Fields. These are the picks I would love to see and ones I have on my “what would I do” mock:
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba to Atlanta: I love Desmond Ridder and had him as my only R1 QB last year. Give him JSN who will be filthy in the slot and fits so well there with Pitts and London. As the only WR I think is deserving of a top-10 pick, Atlanta is positioned perfectly here.
- Darnell Wright to Chicago: I know I am way higher on Darnell than most, he is my top OT. Chicago has to protect Fields and they have to get Teven Jenkins on the interior. They likely will have their pick of the first or second OT off the board and this makes so much sense.
- JSN, Quentin Johnston, or Broderick Jones to Houston at 12: If Atlanta doesn’t take JSN, he needs to go here. I am also higher on Quentin Johnston than most. And with OTs likely seeing a run around their pick, a Broderick Jones would be awesome here. Take Bryce and give him another guy at 12.
- Dawand Jones to Pittsburgh: For their legacy being a trenches team, the Steelers don’t draft that way as they have not taken OL in the 1st round since David DeCastro in 2012. With picks 17 and 32, they are well positioned to change that this year. I love Dawand and love his fit in Pittsburgh where he can lock down RT for Pickett for years.
6. Every year there are 10-12 top players that come from deeper in the draft – who are they this year?
I wrote previously on hit and miss rates in the draft and it is pretty consistent that at least a third of the 1st round aren’t top players. And every year, there are players deep in the class like Tariq Woolen and Creed Humphrey and Amon-Ra St. Brown that come from days two and three. It’s interesting to wonder who they could be this year. Here is a deeper look at who hits and misses in case you missed it:
While I will be no more right or wrong than others and where these players go and the opportunity they are put in has so much to do with what they become, here are my list of guys I think we could look back on as guys that should have gone in the 1st:
- WR Marvin Mims
- WR Tyler Scott
- OT Dawand Jones
- OC John Michael-Schmitz
- OG Steve Avila
- DT Keeanu Benton
- EDGE Felix Anudike-Uzomah
- EDGE Zach Harrison
- LB SirVocea Dennis
- CB Rejzohn Wright
7. Just “my guys”
These are the guys I love and feel are the most “sure” guys in this class, the guys I think have great upside and lower miss potentials:
- Nolan Smith – Ignore the size, injury, and “lack of production” concerns, he has one of the best pressure rates in the past several years and is an elite run defender.
- Christian Gonzalez – Just like 2022 when we all saw Sauce just look so much different than any other CB out there at the Combine, this year it was Gonzalez.
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba – All I care about with receivers is separation and my god is he good there.
- Marvin Mims – And again, Mims and I don’t care if others disagree… I think these types of stats can always be “fit” to make a comparison you want but there are just so many like this where Mims is in really, really good company
8. Guys I am most interested to see when and where they go
For various reasons, here are the guys I will be interested to see where they are drafted:
- Tyree Wilson – I love Tyree, both David and I wrote articles on him. And I think he will be very good. But he is older (23) and was late breakout which is usually not a great thing. He has gotten a lot of love lately with many saying he could go to Houston at 2, but I think he could also be a guy that drops into the late teens.
- Nolan Smith – Long stuck with an EDP around 30, he has risen especially after his Combine performance, but is still in the teens. I think he should be the second non-QB taken. He is my top guy for the Eagles to take but I have Detroit taking him at 6 in my “what would I do” mock. He’s going high.
- Quentin Johnston – Started out as the clear WR1 but has plummeted recently, now with an EDP barely hanging on in the 1st round at 30. There are risks – he didn’t test or measure as well as people thought and his production is grouped into a handful of games. But with two-high defenses, the league is moving towards valuing YAC and there isn’t a better guy out there.
- The TEs in aggregate – TE is not a good first round position to take, it is a “deep class”, and at least in my view, there is a lot of variation in the rankings. Mayer is widely viewed as TE1 but Darnell Washington is my TE1. Kincaid and Musgrave are great pass catchers but they have a mix of age and injury concerns.
- The older guys, especially at premium positions – I think the draft is about raising your odds of success and history is not good for older guys especially at WR, CB, and EDGE. Some teams, whether they admit it or not, have age cutoffs that will just take them off their boards. Guys like Zay Flowers, Keion White, JPJ, and Tyree Wilson are all guys to watch tonight. Here is a dive into older player draft rates and performance in case you missed it: “How to think about older draft prospects”
- The corners – CB is always drafted heavily and it will continue this year. But I think there is a bigger variation in who goes when and where as there are scheme-specific guys, older guys, and a big lack of clarity of rankings. David has a great post on CB rankings which differs from the current EDPs – guys like Tyrique Stevenson and Emmanuel Forbes could surprise on the upside and somebody like JPJ could go anywhere from the first CB taken to CB5.
9. The teams I am most interested in their picks
I wrote on how much winning is impacted by drafting well – teams can of course succeed in the short-run through trades and free agency, but the league is way more driven by the financial side than most realize. It is why the “don’t draft RBs high” argument exists. These are the teams that I am most interested in seeing their picks tonight:
- Jacksonville and Detroit – Both are on the upswing, both have drafted well, and both have weakening divisions. A good draft really helps both.
- Atlanta – The Falcons are my top team that I think the league is too low on, with a win line of 7.5 in 2023. Their division is weak, they have drafted very well lately, and the pick at 8 is huge.
- Minnesota – They have drafted terribly, with barely a good pick since Justin Jefferson. They don’t have good draft capital and they have to get somebody at 23.
- Tennessee, Tampa Bay, and Arizona – All three are “blow it up” candidates and will be interesting to see which direction they go.
- The Eagles at 30 – This is the fewest number of picks Howie has had over back-to-back years except for when they emptied the cupboards for Wentz. Everybody expects Howie to trade and I fully expect them to trade down from 30 (unless they trade down from 10).
10. Of course I have to end with punters…
Last year was a historic punter class with the most draft capital spent on punters in 20 years. Most see one or at best two punters being taken this year and I am taking the over on that. While it probably won’t be 2022 with the first one being taken at 130, I think there are four draftable punters this year – Michael Turk, Bryce Baringer, Brad Robbins, and Ethan Evans. We will have to wait until Sunday to see, but I’ll put my guess out there that punters start being taken around pick 150 with Turk being the first off the board (although would not be surprised if it were Baringer).