How to think about older draft prospects


Due to Covid redshirts and eligibility extensions, the 2022 draft saw a reversal in the long decline of how many 23+ year old prospects got drafted. But the trend has still been for younger players, especially at the top of the draft, to be the players pushed up boards.

% of over/under 23 year olds drafted


% over/under 23 year olds drafted - round 1


Player value for 23+ year olds


Players 23 years or older generally perform worse than younger players in the league. There is some selection bias here as better players are more likely to enter the draft younger, but that doesn't explain everything for two reasons:
Below shows the chance of drafting a player in each of the player classes (which tie to value percentiles). A few takeaways:

The table below shows for each position the value or player percentile of 23+ year olds (top number) and the difference vs. aged 22 and younger players (bottom number)

If you are taking an older player, take a QB, lineman, TE, or specialist...


Older prospects in the 2023 top 100


Birthdates and ages are still missing for many prospects but of the ones we have data on, these are the prospects in the top 100 that will be at or near 23 by the start of the season

Offense

Defense