I was not planning on doing an article specifically on Jalen Reagor but a couple of things this week changed my mind. In prior posts and on Twitter I’ve been high on Reagor because of his traits. This week, I posted something to that effect and got a pretty common reply of “nobody should be excited until he produces on the field.” Lot of other posts declaring him a round 1 bust.
We all can have player opinions and we will all be right at times and horribly wrong other times, but an opinion without some backing – either data or film – is not useful. We discard players way too quickly, not recognizing that a lot of very good players don’t have great rookie seasons.
1st round receivers taken since 2010 have averaged 88 targets, 50 catches, 681 receiving yards, and a cumulative Expected Points Added (EPA) of 16.80. Here are recent 1st round receivers that were viewed as disappointments or busts after their rookie season:
| Player | Targets | Catches | Yards | YAC | EPA |
| Mike Williams | 23 | 11 | 95 | 11 | -12.05 |
| Corey Davis | 65 | 34 | 375 | 130 | -6.82 |
| Devante Parker | 50 | 26 | 494 | 98 | 24.68 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 39 | 22 | 283 | 139 | 8.11 |
Reagor in a partial rookie season had 53 targets and 31 catches for 396 yards with 191 YAC and a cumulative EPA of 6.85. Projecting Reagor out to a full season (he missed 5 games), he would have 77 targets, 45 catches, and 574 yards.
On stats alone, his rookie season was a disappointment and Reagor has said the same, but looking at only his stat line is misleading. The issue is Reagor will forever be compared to Justin Jefferson. Anybody can disagree with the pick and criticize Howie, but Jefferson (or any other player) has nothing to do with Reagor being a good receiver or not.
Reagor’s traits say he will be good
If you have read my other stuff, you will know I am huge on traits because if a player has the traits that typically lead to success, they aren’t guaranteed to be good but are much more likely to be. And if they don’t have the traits (Dillard’s functional strength, Sidney Jones’ short-area agility, JJAWs inability to separate or create with the ball), it is very unlikely they succeed.
For receivers, the traits that matter are separation, reliability catching, and an ability to create with the ball (here is a prior post on offensive metrics that matter which has more detail on these wide receiver efficiency metrics). As I’ve mentioned before, in 2020 Reagor was 95th percentile in separation and 76th percentile in YAC ability – receivers that are top quarter in two traits are all good. I can’t say it any more clearly – with those traits, it is unlikely Reagor is not good.
Rewatching Reagor’s 2020 targets
I decided to re-watch (again) all of Reagor’s 2020 targets and charted them myself to see how often he created separation, how the QB play helped or hurt him, and what he did with the ball. Even being more positive on him than most coming into this, I was actually surprised how much more effective he was than the common view on his rookie season.
| Depth of Target | Targets | Catches | # On Target Throws | # Drops | # with Separation | # Contested Catches / Contested Targets |
| Short (0-10) | 25 | 20 | 19 | 1 | n/a | 4/6 |
| Medium (10-20) | 15 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 10 | 2/4 |
| Deep (over 20) | 14 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 0/0 |
Note that the above totals 32 receptions when he officially only had 31 – the difference is there was a two-point conversion against Dallas that I included but is not included in official receiving stats.
What should stand out here are the following:
- The QBs did not help Reagor with 22 of 54 targets not being catchable balls.
- Reagor caught everything that was on-target. If you look in official stats, he will be listed with 1 drop and drops are subjective, but I had him down for 2.
- Reagor consistently separates, with 17 of his 29 targets having separation (I only tracked separation on medium and deep targets as short yardage separation is misleading as so many are quick passes at the LOS)
- Reagor has underrated ability to create after the catch. He had an expected YAC of 129 yards (expected YAC is from the NFLfastR dataset and based on play conditions) but generated 191 YAC.
If you have 12 minutes, go watch Reagor’s 2020 targets which Jimmy Kempski has posted on Youtube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hdZGZV2B9cs&t=338s). Below I’m showing representative plays that give good context on what Reagor’s 2020 actually was.
Separation and Catches
Reagor had good separation on half of his deep (over 20 yard) targets, but only 3 of 14 were on-target passes. The first is his opener of the season with the deep completion vs Washington. The second is a play against Arizona many disagree on and say Reagor could have caught it – he had Patrick Peterson beat but Hurts threw it late, turning separation into a contested catch. And the next four are all routes where Reagor finds open space.
Contested Catches
Not known for contested catches, Reagor did well here and showing better hands than what most expected out of college. The first three clips are immediate hits against the Rams, Giants, and Browns where he held the ball. The fourth clip is an intentionally underthrown ball where Reagor had a chance to come back with the corner not turning his head around, but it was a good PBU on tight coverage. The fifth is one of my least favorite of all of his targets – against the Seahawks, Reagor had a ball in the endzone where he didn’t go up for it. This would have been a tough catch, but good receivers make this a more competitive reception.
YAC Ability
As mentioned earlier, Reagor was 76th percentile among receivers last year in YAC and he clearly has an ability to create on his own. The first four clips are all short screens. The first is creating something out of nothing vs. Dallas, forcing a missed tackle. The second is a good pickup following his blockers vs. the Giants. The third showed good vision through a crowd vs. the Seahawks and the fourth is another where he forces a missed tackle. The fifth is a 40 yard gain on a crosser over the middle where he had space. And the last clip vs. the Cardinals is another long gain on a pass behind the LOS.
The Misses
Some of the notable targets where Reagor was open but a poor throw, including Wentz overthrowing him on a would-be touchdown and bouncing one behind him. The deep ball from Hurts vs. the Saints often receives criticism that Reagor could have made a play on it – he could have dove for it making it a great catch, but it doesn’t change that he was open and the ball was poorly placed, too far left
Drops
Drops don’t really have an official measurement and are defined as passes where the WR should have caught it with reasonable effort. Officially, Reagor had one drop last season, I added a second which I understand why it is not counted. The first one against Dallas is just a pure drop on a screen – this play was most likely going to be no gain as coverage was there as the pass arrived with no blockers. The second is on a 4th and 31 against Seattle where Wentz was too high on the pass, forcing Reagor up. Reagor had his hands on it and was going to take an immediate hit, but this was well short of the first down marker. Neither of his drops were consequential.
Expectations are high this year and Reagor has more work to do – his routes need to be better and there were balls last year that he needed to fight for more. I feel bad on his personal issues but he needed to come into camp ready and in shape. But he has the raw traits with high separation and YAC rankings in the league. And watching his targets last year, you see that the QB play absolutely affected his rookie year. Does this all guarantee success? Of course not, plenty of traits players have failed. But I will bet on player traits and will be right more often than wrong.
I get why fans are frustrated (with a lot of that frustration really aimed at Howie), but the data and tape don’t support these opinions. We should be very excited to see Reagor in Sirianni’s offense where he has been consistent in saying they will design the offense to player strengths… and see Reagor across from DeVonta… with a healthy (healthier) offensive line… and with Hurts who doesn’t even have to be great to be better than what our receivers had last year.
Reagor will be good.