Philadelphia will have some tough decisions to make regarding the 2023 roster construction. Some Eagle legends may have played their last downs in the city of brotherly love. Read more
While it may take a while to equal the 2022 punter draft class where four were drafted including two in the 4th round, 2023 is another good year if your team need a punter. A look at the top punters in 2023. Read more
It's not just the loss. It's that I wanted THIS team to win. This group of guys. And as tough as it is to win in this league, they are set up to make another run. A look at what they have in front of them and why this team is different from past ones. Read more
The Eagles didn’t mortgage the future to get here either.
They didn’t overpay for free agents or any of the players they traded for.
They also didn’t spend the most money on Free agency. Read more
There are always big risers out of the college pro bowl games but we may need to pump the brakes on some of them. A look at the history of risers, how age factors in, and who is interesting this year. Read more
One more.
There's no way you can say this will be an easy game as the top two teams face off. But a look at the matchup, close games, the rush attack, and blitzing. Read more
How did the Eagles win a Super Bowl, appear in a conference-leading seven championships games, be victorious in 15 playoff games, and still manage to net 10 draft picks? Read more
The 49ers are very good, but where they are strong, the Eagles are stronger. A dive into the matchups with the run game, deep passing, and turnover battle. Read more
A quick look at how the Eagles continued doing what they have done all year with dominant rushing and a defense that frustrates QBs. With 268 yards the 2022 Eagles now have 4 of the top 25 rushing games since 2010. Read more
Everybody knows how Josh Allen developed in the league. And with Hurts' 2022 season, he is now another example. How should we think about QB development? What does it mean for teams that may draft a QB this year? And why Anthony Richardson is an interesting pick this draft.
Read more
The big boards and simulators this time of the year aren't as accurate as we all think - a third of the 1st round has historically been different. Who could be risers (and fallers) this year? Read more
An arms race mock that adds what should be an illegal amount of weapons to this offense. A true Howie trenches mock. And a long-term mock that invests in the most expensive positions to be cap efficient. Read more
The Purge is Coming, The Philadelphia Eagles 2023 Free Agents
For the first time in many seasons, the top priority for the Eagles in free agency might be to re-sign their own.
Philadelphia will have some tough decisions to make regarding the 2023 roster construction.
Some Eagle legends may have played their last downs in the city of brotherly love.
By my count, the team currently has a whopping 22 players who will be free agents(including in-season pickups).
Three are Eagle legends who will likely be in their Hall of Fame one day.
Defensive Line:
The free agents on the defensive line, a position that is highly prioritized by Howie and the Eagles, include two of the best who has ever worn an Eagles jersey.
It was not much of a surprise when Fletch returned on a one-year deal. It may be a little shocking to see him return with a reduction in playing time and salary once again. He would like to finish his career in Philadelphia with a second Super Bowl ring, so having him back is a possibility. I am 50/50 on whether that will happen. How much less money he is willing to take will probably be the deciding factor.
B.G. has been a big-time contributor, leader, and fan/locker room favorite for most of his career. This season, he has shown the value he brings to the team by playing at a high level while returning from a serious injury. He’s expressed his desire to play 2 more seasons and his choice would be to finish his career in Philadelphia. Losing 3 starters on the D-line would be a lot to come back from and Brandon would probably accept a 1-year deal with a 2nd yr option to return. I believe he stays.
Javon has been solid since arriving and has really been good down the stretch. He is making it hard to imagine him not being here for a couple more years. Nobody values the liens more than Howie and while it would make sense to extend him on a 2–3 year pact, he will likely demand a larger contract than the 3 yr 39 million he just played for. He just finished the 2022 campaign with 11 sacks. He will likely get too much money for the Eagles to retain him.
Janarius Robinson DE 24
Janarius was signed by the Eagles in September from the Vikings practice squad. He was placed on I.R. a month later. This is the second season in a row that his season has ended prematurely.
The trade for Robert Quinn gave the Birds another pass-rushing weapon off the edge, and a chance to watch him for the remainder of the season to see if they would like to try and extend him for another year. Unfortunately, he contributed little to nothing and will likely demand big money on the open market.
The Eagles grabbed Suh when Jordan Davis went down hurt, and it made a lot of sense for the post-season run. He played ok, and accepted the job for a run at another ring. The Super Bowl loss could be the last game he ever plays. If the Birds are in need of another DT come next November and he is on the couch again, he could come back in a similar role. The Eagles seemed pleased with his play. But I do not expect it.
The Eagles seemingly drafted Kelce’s replacement with Cam Jurgens in the 2022 draft, but losing Jason’s play, experience, and leadership will not be easily duplicated. Kelce retiring would be a big loss if he hangs them up at the season’s end. Howie and the Eagles will keep signing Kelce to one-year deals as long as he wants to lace them up.
A few other OL who could be playing their final season in Philadelphia:
I thought Isaac could be a trade candidate this past season, so it would be hard for me to project him here in 2023. He is another player that would have to accept a team-friendly deal to stay.
The Eagles former first-round pick never lived up to expectations, but he did serve as a decent backup. He will be a left tackle for a team in search of one.
He spent the year rehabbing from a torn ACL, I do not have a feel for what the Eagles have in mind for him if anything.
Outlook: If they are not willing or able to retain a couple of these guys, their depth may be challenged for the first time in many years. Stoutland is the best in the business and the team is confident he will keep churning out top-tier starters, but replacing 4 players from the O-line room would be a tall order.
Jurgens could, and should, fill whichever role opens up on the line between Kelce or Isaac. He can play guard until Kelce hangs them up, and learn from one of the best to ever do it.
He could also be the starting center in 2023 if Kelce leaves.
Defensive Backs:
The play of the DBs may pose harder decisions than the defensive line for Howie.
James has played better than most anyone expected and, paired with Slay, has solidified the back end of this defense. Deciding on Bradberry’s future will be one of the hardest decisions the Eagles will have to make. His market could reach heights that make it very difficult for them to retain him, but he is the same age as Slay was when Howie handed him a big contract. The Eagles have shown they are risk-averse to this in some instances. My best guess is a return to the NY Giants. They regretted the decision to let him walk all year.
Outlook:
Howie and the Eagles have long been enamored with Patrick Peterson, and he could be a realistic, cost-effective option if Bradberry leaves.
Chauncey Gardner- Johnson S 25
A late pre-season trade brought CJ GJ over from the Saints, and much like Bradberry, GJ has been playing better than advertised. His attitude, aggression, and style of play are perfect for this defense and were traits that have been sorely missed. The Eagles will want to extend his stay. A three-year pact would make a lot of sense. He led the league in interceptions, despite missing 5 games, so he will not come cheap. I suspect the Eagles will pay what it takes to keep him.
Epps was an unsung hero in the backfield during the first half of the season. He seems to have found a role on this team and gained the confidence of the coaches and players. The emergence of Reed Blankenship and the Eagles’ ability to re-sign CJGJ will likely determine Epps’ fate with the team.
Reed Blankenship looks like a future starter. If Epps is offered big money, he will not return.
The Eagles seemingly love Edwards in the middle, and he has played very well. He led the team in tackles in 2022 and should have a good market that could cause problems for the Birds to re-sing him. That being said, I would be surprised if he doesn’t get an extension.
Kyzir has done everything the Eagles had hoped for and more, but it’s probably not going to make a difference as far as him remaining in Philly. Nakobe is lurking and can play the WIL while being cheaper, and under control for 3 more seasons. He is only back if TJ isn’t, and even then adding Dean and a free agent upgrade may be more inviting.
There are a lot of interesting linebackers that will be free agents in a few weeks. The Eagles could choose to let both TJ and Kyzir walk and sign a different partner for Dean.
Running Backs:
If the Eagles let both Miles and Boston move on, the RB room will look very different than it has in 4 seasons.
It’s ironic how players usually are at their best during a contract season. Miles has been healthy and played the best football since arriving. The Eagles don’t usually break the bank for a running back, and I don’t see them doing that with Miles either. Unless he is willing to accept a hometown discount he will probably find that the grass ($) is greener on another field.
The Eagles may want to retain Boston for the 2023 season, especially if Miles leaves. He is a solid player and has excelled as a rotational backup. It would not be surprising to see him back on a one-year deal, but his play may have warranted a team to give him more money elsewhere.
Was Zach a hired gun to help teach the Sirianni system, or has he found a niche in this offense as the 4th or 5th wideout and made himself worthy of another year or two in Philly? That decision may come down to being a financial one.
The Eagles love his intangibles but he has to prove he can stay healthy. I’d expect him back on a one-year team-friendly prove-it deal. The Eagles have exclusive rights, so it would be a shocker to see him go.
Gardner has expressed an interest to start but has never been a distraction. He was called to duty when Hurts was injured last year and was able to do what the Eagles asked and win a game. He was not able to do that this year. They will likely try to find another player to fill his shoes this off-season. Drafting a QB in the mid to late rounds with some of the same intangibles Hurts has is probably more realistic.
Was signed by the Eagles to get through a few weeks when Siposs was injured. He struggled while with the team and was never a candidate to return
2023
The disappointment of losing the Super Bowl is only going to fuel the Eagles’ organization, and current NFL executive of the year, Howie Roseman to improve upon what they have and give it another shot while Jalen Hurts‘ contract is under the rookie deal. (even if they extend him, the larger cap hits will not start in 2023)
Howie and company will have a plan in place to get them back to the post-season with a chance at that elusive second Lombardi trophy.
My guess is that 16 leave and 6 remain, 7 if Jason Kelce decides to play another season.
Pascal could be another name the Eagles keep around as he did not seem to mind the role he had with the team in 2022.
With the team having so many potential defensive changes, it will be interesting if the plan does not take shape on that side of the ball until they have a new defensive coordinator in place. If Dennard Wilson is named DC, there may be continuity with the scheme, and some of the players, like Epps, may have a higher chance of being retained.
As Always, Thank You for reading!
Follow me @PHLEagleNews
Follow us@PhillyCvrCorner
Follow Greg @GregHartPA
David
2/16/23
Punters in the 2023 Draft: 4 That Should Be Drafted
Back at it with a look at the 2023 punter class!
2022 was an all-time great class with four punters drafted, including Jordan Stout and Jake Camarda taken in the 4th round. It was the highest amount of draft capital used on punters – almost double the average – and we can expect 2-3 of the 2022 punters to be among the league’s bests for many years.
After 2022, I expected a down year and while it will be difficult to match last year, this class is better than I initially thought. Teams in need of a punter have a few very good options.
If you didn’t read my punter articles from last year, I will summarize how I look at punters and what matters in projecting college prospects to the pros:
It’s not about the big ball
Average NFL punters have hangtimes in the 4.3s while the best punters average in the 4.4s or above.
Well, not “just” about the big ball – distance of course matters. A lot of college punters have the distance but few pair it with a pro-level hangtime. And punts without hangtime get killed because pro return units are too good.
Listen to Britain Covey after the Titans game when he had his best game of the season with 105 yards on 6 returns: “I’m not a different player now than I was 10 hours ago. When someone out-kicks his coverage with 4.2 hang time, you have to take advantage.” Take a look at Covey’s three 20+ yard returns that game and where coverage units were as he caught the ball:
Pinning is winning
Punts downed inside the 10 result in half a point of scoring advantage over touchbacks, punts inside the 5 yard line are worth over a full point
While punting on short-fields is decreasing in frequency, punts that pin deep have under-recognized value. Last year I looked at the effect of punts on actual in-game scoring and found that punts downed inside the 10 yard line both suppress the opponents scoring on their next drive and result in higher scoring rates on the punting team’s subsequent drive.
The 2023 punter class
Below shows average hangtime and punt distance for the 2023 punter class (green), the 2022 class (blue), and all punters since 2015 (grey). The top right quadrant is obviously where you want to be, where punters are pairing both distance and hangtime.
A few points on this year’s rookie punters:
Except for Trenton Gill, all had college hangtimes above 4.1 seconds and each further raised their rookie season hangtime above 4.3 seconds
Again except for Gill, they all had college distances of 46 yards or better
Jordan Stout, Trenton Gill, and Ryan Wright had elite “Inside 20 to Touchback” ratios (Stout at 12:1, Gill 7:1, and Wright 6:1)
Where does the 2023 class land and who is interesting for the draft? To me, there are three or four draftable punters in this class, a couple that will should have their name called mid day 3.
Michael Turk, Oklahoma
Anybody that has a Twitter handle of @HangtimeYT is going to be on my list. Add to it his trick shots including home run punts and knocking a stuck ball out of the gym rafters and he’s my guy.
But he’s not just trick shots. If you just look for punters with at least 46 yards and 4.1 seconds of hangtime, there’s only one punter in the FBS – Turk.
As good as he is, there is reason to expect more from Turk. He comes from NFL specialist bloodlines – one uncle made three Pro Bowls over a 17-year career punting and another had a 15-year pro career as a long snapper.
And like Jordan Stout last year, Turk is the newest in this class to punting. Starting as a safety in high school, he switched to punting after three ACL tears in three years. Over 4 seasons at Arizona and Oklahoma he has been one of college’s best, and most consistent, punters. With only 179 real, in-game career punts, he will continue to improve.
He will be drafted and is worth a pick in round 4 or 5.
Brad Robbins, Michigan
Maybe better known for his 1880s-era mustache, Robbins is probably the most pro-ready punter in this class. His very good 2022 season was even better than it appeared as he was clearly not himself after an injury in the Michigan State game. His pre and post injury splits show the level he can really hit:
Pre-injury: 19 punts, 47.6 average distance, 4.37 average hangtime Post-injury: 25 punts, 41.0 average distance, 4.21 average hangtime, and his only career blocked punt
Add in his 2021 season where he averaged 46.4 yards and a 4.30 hangtime and he makes a case, like Turk, to be drafted somewhere in rounds 4 or 5 and battle for P1 in this class.
Bryce Baringer, Michigan State
Another from Michigan, Baringer and Robbins battled in the Big 10. Baringer leads the nation in distance with a 49.0 yard average and adds one of the better short-field abilities in this class. While I value hangtime a lot and Baringer doesn’t stand out here, when you watch him, he absolutely has the ability. He showed this off at the Senior Bowl when he launched a 4.92 second, 47 yard punt that was fair caught at the 7 with his coverage unit there, waiting for the ball to come down.
Ethan Evans, Wingate
If you haven’t heard of Ethan Evans or Wingate, you probably aren’t alone. Wingate is a D-II school in North Carolina that plays in the South Atlantic Conference.
I have to give full credit to @IsaacPunts for the work on Evans. Because Evans is D-II, both data and film are severely lacking and I almost solely relied on box scores, some sparse YouTube clips, and breakdowns by Isaac. I don’t want to try to repeat Isaac’s great breakdown – if you have 2 minutes, give it a watch:
His stats put him right with the top punters in this class with a 4.11 average hangtime and second-best 46.4 average distance. Does he get drafted? I would say “yes”, but I don’t know how teams will look at a D-II prospect even though it doesn’t mean as much for specialists.
He should be drafted and deserves to be – if he doesn’t hear his name called, several teams will be calling him quickly in the UDFA signing period.
Adam Korsak
Every time I talk about punters, I anger the Rutgers faithful when I don’t have Korsak as my top punter. And over time, I may end up looking like a fool leaving this year’s Ray Guy Award winner off which would be fine.
Korsak is absolutely elite with placement and short-field punts. Two stats that I can’t stress how silly they are:
He has put 153 career punts inside the 20 vs. only 7 touchbacks (a 22:1 ratio)
This season he had 8 punts returned for a total of MINUS 2 yards, a -0.3 Y/R average
Everybody should read those again because of how good those stats are. As a comparison, the nation’s most accurate – and my top – punter last year was Jordan Stout and Korsak’s inside 20 ratio is twice Stout’s.
My issue is he has never averaged above a 3.8 second hangtime. I charted all of his punts to see if it was due to usage like a higher-than-normal number of short-field punts. But it isn’t. Only 6 of his 77 punts were short-field. And he has one of the lowest percentage of punts over 46 yards on open field punts (open field is where you can just rear back and boom the ball) at just 30%. As a comparison, last year Stout and Camarda were both at 47%, Stonehouse was at 58%. This year Baringer is at 67%, Robbins 50%, and Turk 51%.
If you were a team that punted a lot on short-fields, Korsak would be P1. But the issue is the league is punting less and less from short-fields as teams get more aggressive on 4th down. And he just isn’t showing the distance or hangtime on open field punts.
He will be a pro, I just don’t think there’s any way he goes over the above guys and not sure he gets drafted. If you watch him, Korsak has an unorthodox style, at times moves around, holding back, looking like he is seeking where to put the ball. And he is very, very good at it. But what he does best is becoming a smaller and smaller part of NFL punting.
A lot of us knew the Eagles were going to be better than preseason expectations, but nobody was talking about the Super Bowl. Once they got rolling, though, it was apparent this was a special year. Expectations rose, and losing to the Chiefs felt like a big missed opportunity. But that isn’t what bugs me about this loss.
It isn’t anger at the Bradberry penalty, I love Bradberry and that isn’t why the Eagles lost. It isn’t the Chiefs – they are an easy team to respect and, as I said in my pre-Super Bowl article, if the Eagles lost it would be because it was the first time they were beaten this year. And they were.
It’s because this team was so likable.
The Eagles have long been one of the better teams in the league in terms of culture and character. But even by this standard, the 2022 team may be the most likable sports team I have ever cheered for.
I so wanted Jalen to get his ring. And DeVonta… and A.J… and Darius and Landon and Jordan and Haason and Sweat and Dallas all to get their first ring. And Kelce and BG and Fletch and Lane to get another before their time is done. More than a missed opportunity, I wanted these players to win.
That’s what sticks with me after this loss. And why this one felt different than past seasons.
2004: The gut punch
The 2004 loss to the Patriots was tough because we had never won. Most fans either weren’t born or weren’t old enough to even remember the last time the Eagles were there.
Prior to 2004, the Eagles were so close. 2003 was the crushing loss to Tampa Bay in the NFC Championship Game after all the “Tampa Bay has never won in a game below 32 degrees” nonsense.
But in 2004 the Eagles finally made it back to the Super Bowl, but lost to the hated Patriots, turning the ball over four times. Still in it late, McNabb – at the time the Eagles’ greatest QB – famously puked and never fully recovered with fans.
The winning was short-lived as the Eagles went first-to-worst the next season, finishing 6-10. The honeymoon with T.O. ended quickly and badly, a contract dispute stretched on with fan-favorite Brian Westbrook, and injuries roiled the Eagles in the 2005 season.
2017: How did we win?
The 2017 win was indescribable. Partly because we finally made it, but also because of how we did it. After consecutive 7-9 seasons, the stars aligned in 2017.
For the first time since McNabb, the Eagles finally had their guy in Carson Wentz. It was cruel when he went down in the middle of an MVP-caliber season because in the pass-heavy, must-have-a-franchise-QB league, you aren’t supposed to win with your backup.
And it wasn’t just losing Wentz. The Eagles also lost protector Jason Peters, defensive centerpiece Jordan Hicks, and unguardable weapon Darren Sproles and somehow still beat the best team in the world.
It wasn’t supposed to happen, which made it even more meaningful. I was ecstatic for the team and the city, but I think 2017 was more personal – we were all happy for ourselves. It was vindication and we no longer had to listen to the rest of the NFC East about never winning one.
The “new normal”…
The Super Bowl win was proclaimed to be the start of the “new normal” where the Eagles were expected to compete year in and year out. A new dynasty to rival the Patriots.
I hated that term just like I hated the “Dream Team”. There is nothing guaranteed or easy in the NFL and nothing you say matters. As Kelce says, “you are what your record is.” With how the league is designed for parity with the salary cap, free agency, and how difficult it is to consistently draft well, there should be no expectation of staying on top.
A double-doink partly kept the hope alive for a year, but that post-Super Bowl “new normal” was wishful thinking as Wentz imploded and the roster deteriorated.
They emptied the cupboard to get their franchise QB, leaving them 30th in the league in available draft capital between 2017-2019. They drafted okay, but because of so few picks, particularly high ones, they were 30th in the league in draft value and just could not restock.
In an attempt to keep it together and make up for the lack of starters from the draft, Howie gave out bad contracts to an aging roster. This “new normal” couldn’t stay healthy and they couldn’t afford to bring in the talent they needed.
Here is where the Eagles ranked in adjusted games lost (AGL) due to injury and who their big free agent signings were in the years after the Super Bowl:
For the “salary cap isn’t real” crowd, it became very, very real when the Eagles continually had $20-30M of cap dedicated to injured or long-gone players like Malik Jackson, Alshon Jeffrey, and Desean Jackson.
The 2022 offseason cost less than the dead cap they were carrying in the “new normal” era. That’s why the “new normal” was a mirage.
2022 and beyond
Yes, losing sucked. And we all hope – and expect – to see them back in the Super Bowl again.
They have a franchise quarterback. The league demands a mobile quarterback and Hurts is just about the best in the league at it. He is clutch. He has improved on every weakness. And he has every intangible you could ask for.
They finally have three legitimate offensive weapons that rival any offensive unit in the league.
They have drafted well and have youth on both offense and defense. And unlike after the last Super Bowl, they have plenty of draft capital with two 1st round picks this year and an extra 2nd next year.
The Eagles front officeis one of the best in the league. They are one of the most advanced analytics teams. They have one of the best pro scouting groups.
They are set up to compete annually and this is what all of Philly is expecting. But rent will be due as Hurts says. Plenty of great QBs and teams never make it back and the Eagles have a lot of work ahead of them.
They don’t have a lot of cap flexibility
The Eagles are right around middle of the league in effective cap space for the 2023 season at just $2.8M of free space, but are actually last in the league in potential cap flexibility. If they restructured everything possible, they are 32nd with just $34.7M in space.
They can’t hold on to players
Whether it was loyalty or just limited options because of their cap space, Howie wrongly held on to players like Jason Peters and Alshon Jeffrey too long after 2017. We will see who stays and goes but there are some big and loved names who probably should have played their final game with the Eagles.
The trenches will need investment to remain a strength
They have 9 free agents on the lines, 6 on the DL and 3 on the OL, including fixtures Hargrave, BG, Fletch, Kelce, and Seumalo. Maybe some come back on a one-year, friendly deal, but this is the first time in a while where the Eagles are staring at a lot of turnover on the lines.
They will need to get cheaper in areas
It’s a great problem to have to have to pay your franchise QB because most teams either never find one or overpay a bad one. Howie will push money out and the Eagles still have one cheap year on Hurts’ rookie deal, but this means the Eagles have to start making other areas cheaper. And there are really only three places to look – the lines, the receivers, and the secondary. The Eagles will have the most expensive secondary in the league in 2023 and that is WITHOUT James Bradberry and CJGJ. This is where they most likely need to look and start investing.
As hard as it is to return to the Super Bowl, more teams have done it than most think. Excluding the Patriots, since 2000 six teams have made it back within 5 years – the Chiefs (3 trips), Rams who did it twice, Seattle, Denver, Indy, and the Steelers.
Howie and the Eagles have a lot of work to do but they have consistently shown they can do it. And unlike our past teams, this one has a ton going for it to make it back.
The Outlier; How the Eagles Built Their Super Bowl team
Sorry recent Giant playoff loser Julian Love, the Eagles built a fantastic coaching staff who cultivated a winning atmosphere by motivating and getting the most from their veterans while also developing the younger talent.
The Eagles didn’t mortgage the future to get here either.
They didn’t overpay for free agents or any of the players they traded for.
They also didn’t spend the most money on Free Agency.
They did identify the best fit for their roster and get the best pass rusher on the market to help a team that finished 31st in sacks a year before, with a meager 29.
They maximized every dollar and roster spot to absolute perfection.
Howie selected players who not only fit in physically and schematically with what the team wanted to do, but also with players who had exuded certain traits and qualities that displayed the strong character of a team he wanted to build upon.
Timeline:
Jan 16th, 2022 the Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat the Eagles in a blowout Wild Card win. This would prove to be the last playoff victory in Tom Brady’s storied career, and a critical learning moment for Hurts, Smith, and the rest of the young Eagles core. The passing of the torch?
Jan 17th, 2022. The next day Eagles GM Howie Roseman begins preparations to identify players who the team should target in free agency, and also which players the team needed to move on from to get back to a Super Bowl.
Draft
April 28th, 2022. Opening night, NFL Draft.
It had become obvious to management that despite using a first-round pick on Jalen Reagor two years earlier, he was not going to be one of the WRs to grow with Hurts and DeVonta. As they did with Carson Wentz the season before, they cut bait and looked to find a replacement.
Wide receivers started moving off the board prior to the Eagles’ selection, something Howie had anticipated, so he chose to react with a plan he had hatched weeks earlier.
They dealt one of their three 1st-round-picks and a 3rd-rounder to the Titans for wide receiver extraordinaire, A.J. Brown.
Unlike years earlier when the Eagles made a similar splash by acquiring one of the best wideouts in the league, Terrell Owens, this would prove to be the anti-T.O. McNabb controversy. QB Jalen Hurts and AJ are best friends. Thus far, the results speak for themselves.
Next, the Birds wanted to add a defensive lineman to help a leaky run defense.
Please welcome one of the best DTs in the draft who was fresh off posting a stunning 4.78 40-yard dash at 341 pounds on Day 3 of the NFL Combine.
Once again Howie and the Eagles move swiftly and decisively by trading picks 15, 124, 162, and 166 to the Texans for pick 13 to select one of the Georgia Bulldogs National Championship standouts, Jordan Davis.
With the draft in the rear view and the team still in need of a cornerback, Howie once again assuages all fear by addressing any perceived weaknesses with the team, via free agency.
Free Agents and Trades
March 14th, 2022. Pi~day. The Eagles agree to sign former Temple standout, Haason Reddick to a three-year, $45 million contract. His in-season 16 sacks, 4 forced fumbles, and 49 tackles should have had him in the discussion for defensive player of the year. It’s a crime he wasn’t nominated. He will probably feel vindicated with a Super Bowl win but it was still an injustice. His play in the post-season has been next level with 3.5 more sacks, 10 tackles, and another forced fumble in two games.
March 26th, 2022. The Birds sign linebacker Kyzir White. His contributions include 110 tackles and 1.5 sacks. Not too shabby for a $3 million dollar one-year investment.
On May 18th, 2022, the Eagles signed the recently released NY Giant castaway, James Bradberry, to a one year $7.25 million deal. The availability of Bradberry is a shock to most, and he helped bolster the pass defense, which ranks first in the NFL.
Aug 30, 2022. One of Howie’s favorite trading partners, the New Orleans Saints, make a safety the Eagles would really like to add available.
CJGJ come on down.
The Birds trade future 5th and 6th rd picks to New Orleans for Chauncey Gardner-Johnson. A safety of his magnitude was one of the pieces missing for defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon to implement the scheme he wanted to instill. Despite missing 5 games, CJGJ lad the NFL in interceptions with 7.
With the heavy lifting of the pre-season done, Howie and the Eagles would not sit on their hands during the season. When a need arose or talent presented itself, the Birds, once again, made waves.
Need one would be a kicker. Jake Elliot injured his ankle in late September so the Birds searched for a kicker.
The signing proved to be brilliant, as he made 2 field goals in his debut, including a game-winning kick in the final 2 minutes.
Dicker was named special teams player of the week.
That would be the only game he appeared in with the Eagles. Once Jake Elliot returned to health he was released. But the Birds seemingly had unearthed a diamond in the rough. Cameron now plays for the LA Chargers and won another ST player of the week award.
On October 26, 2022, the Bears made DE Robert Quinn available, and the Eagles moved a future pick to add another player to their roster who could pressure the QB, despite leading the league in sacks.
November 2nd, 2022 The Eagles place rookie Jordan Davis on on IR due to an injury sustained in week 8 versus the Steelers. The reports indicate that Jordan would need a month or more to heal.
So Philadelphia signs not one, but two DTs, to help fill the void.
Both players have been huge additions literally and figuratively.
Quick Hits, by the numbers:
The Draft:
The GM’s job is to identify workers who fit into what they are doing and have the same desires. Successful draft picks not only have the physical attributes and talent, but also the mental. Forfeiting one for the other usually leads to failure.
A GM, and the team, also have to be mindful of projecting the likely future health of their players.
Drafting positions that have a history of longevity is a strategy they have employed. Football is a violent sport and the length of a positional career needs to have an emphasis.
Positional career length from shortest to longest
Running backs – 2.57
Wide Receivers – 2.81
Tight Ends – 2.85
Cornerbacks – 2.94
Linebackers – 2.97
D Line – 3.24
O Line – 3.63
QB – 4.44
Do you see the direct correlation between the positions Howie drafts in the first round and the likelihood they will be able to provide many years of play?
Outside of the recent WR acquisitions, he has stayed pretty true to who has the longest career when using the teams’ high-round picks.
This seems to prove that building via the trenches is not only a sound strategy for the field but also gives a team the biggest bang for their (draft capital) buck.
Outside of the all-important QB position, of course.
For those interested in the special teams’ longevity or players’ overall average, see below.
Kickers/Punters — 4.87
League average — 3.3
Defensive Rankings for SB winners:
Defense does still win Championships.
Big Ben won 2 SBs def ranked 1 and 4
Rodgers 1 SB def ranked 2
Wilson 1 SB def ranked 1
Foles/Wentz 1 SB def ranked 4
Even the great Tom Brady 7 SB def ranked; 6, 1, 2, 8, 1, 7, 1
Over the last 45 years, the #1 ranked defense has won 28.57 of SB
Over the last 45 years, the #1 ranked offense has won 20.41 of SB
An odd Outlier that can dictate a successful season vs a bad one:
The further a road team travels, the less likely their % of winning.
2000 miles or more 39.8% chance of winning
1000–1999 40.3%
0–999 43%
The Eagles did not have too many long flights this year. In fact, their last flight, prior to traveling to Arizona, was all the way back when they played at Dallas on Christmas Eve.
While not a huge difference, every advantage counts. Even a 4% increase is gladly accepted.
Quarterbacks:
Having a younger QB on the team is another advantage because young QBs win more Super Bowls than older ones.
When omitting the unicorn that is Brady, only five Quarterbacks aged 35 and older have won the Super Bowl.
That means, historically, you have a 9% chance to win the SB with a QB over 35.
Aaron Rodgers hasn’t done it. Montana didn’t, Bradshaw didn’t, Aikman didn’t, and they are all HOF QBs that were the best of their era.
For teams who have acquired veteran QBs to lead their team in search of SB glory, like the Broncos this season, most fail and find themselves losing for many more years.
Sadly, it’s kind of like buying a boat. The two greatest days are the one you get it, and the day you get rid of it. Most Broncos fans would love to get rid of Wilson.
So, younger is better. And a QB on a rookie deal is best. It just leaves so much money to be able to bolster other areas. Something the Eagles did well in 2017 when they won the SB and again this year to be playing in another.
The Results:
The Eagles have been in the playoffs 5 times in the last 6 seasons.
They’re essentially on TV participating in playoff games more than Leave it to Beaver re-reruns.
If you don’t understand that reference, congratulations.
You’re probably young and in your prime.
Super Bowl 57:
The Eagles will be playing familiar friend, and current foe, Andy Reid and his Kansas City Chiefs.
The foundation is in place for the Eagles to stay competitive for many more years, but Super Bowls are hard to get to even when you have done everything right.
As you have read, it takes a great game plan, health, fewer air miles, a decisive off-season strategy, ownership who sign off on everything, and the players bonding together to do something special.
It’s been said that the Eagles are the outlier.
They’re lucky. That their way is not how you build a winning team.
Well, I think it is time to admit that simply isn’t true.
In their two playoff games, they have outscored the opponents 69–14. While KC will be the toughest opponent they have faced, I expect them to make the most of this opportunity.
I am looking forward to you all giving the city workers some overtime money to grease those poles!
And for another enjoyable parade down Broad street!
Senior Bowl Risers, Age Trends, and How to Think About the 2023 Draft
Pump the brakes on the Senior Bowl risers
Every year, there are players that wow at the Senior Bowl and everybody races to move them up on their boards. This year, it’s this group:
RBs Tyjae Spears and Chase Brown
WRs Tank Dell, Jayden Reed, Michael Wilson
OL Dawand Jones, Cody Mauch, O’Cyrus Torrence, John Michael-Schmitz
CBs Julius Brents, Darius Rush, Riley Moss
DL Keanu Benton, Will McDonald, Keion White, Adetomiwa Adebawore, Karl Brooks
LBs Daiyan Henley, Aubrey Miller Jr.
But just being a riser from the Senior Bowl doesn’t translate to draft success. Over the past three years, only a third of “risers” turned out to be above average players and a large number don’t look destined for any NFL success.
Everybody has a different list of “risers”, but below are the most commonly mentioned players that popped at last year’s Senior Bowl, where they were drafted, and their value percentile their first year in the league:
NOTE: If you are unfamiliar with player AV and value metrics, a description is included at the bottom of this article
Only 3 of the 13 had first-year success in the league – Christian Watson, Jalen Pitre, and Abraham Lucas. And 7 of the 13 were below 30th percentile in value, including both 1st rounders and three on day 2.
It isn’t fair to judge a player just on their rookie season as plenty of very good players have had bad first years or just didn’t get on the field. The below list includes the 2020 and 2021 risers with their value percentile over their first two or three years in the league:
Success definitely improved over the rookie-only list, but it is still really mixed with more misses than hits.
Only 30% (6 of the 20 risers) were 60th percentile players or better
40% (8 of the 20) were below 20th percentile in value
Half of the day 1 or day 2 picks were below average players (below 40th percentile)
What should we take from this?
First, film matters as a lot of the Senior Bowl workouts make it easy for players to shine.
Every year, wide receivers always make up a big part of the “risers” list but this doesn’t translate to the NFL as their one-on-one drills favor the receiver. Same with one-on-one pass rush drills which show such a limited part of what is success on the DL or OL.
This is why player film matters and for many risers, their game film does not show the same thing that people take away from Senior Bowl drills.
And, second, age matters.
Player age and the draft
Players can miss for a hundred reasons but one thing that has become a bigger issue – and something to consider with the Senior Bowl in particular – is age.
Ever since the rookie wage scale was introduced, the draft has been getting younger and younger as college players try to enter the league as soon as possible to maximize their time on subsequent (bigger) contracts.
With Covid redshirts and extra years of eligibility, 2022 was a bull market for older players. Of the entire 2022 draft class, 55% were 23 years of age or older, up 16% from 2021 and higher than any level since 2000.
Even with 2022’s uptick in older prospects, the top of the draft continues to be dominated by youth with 80% of the 2022 first rounders being 22 years or younger.
2022 will most likely be a momentary blip, not a change in trend even with growing NIL deals.
How the older prospects fared
Looking at the last five drafts (2018-2022), players aged 23 and older significantly underperform younger players:
23+ year olds have an 11% higher bust rate
23+ year olds are almost half as likely to be above average players (7% vs. 12% for 22 or younger players)
23+ year olds underperform the most at the top of the draft, trailing younger players in value percentile in round 1 by over 6% and in round 2 by almost 4%.
These stats absolutely have selection bias in them – better players are more likely to enter the draft younger. Not a surprise. But this still doesn’t explain everything.
Comparing a player’s actual value vs. expected (using the historical expected value at each draft pick spot) helps level the comparison by having higher expectations on players taken earlier. And when you do this, younger prospects have a 5% higher value vs. expected than older players. And again, this is more pronounced in rounds 1 and 2.
There are reasons for this. First, younger players have more room to improve. But second, many older players have “late breakouts” – their “good” year in college is their 22-23 age year when they are competing against 18-19 year olds.
What can we expect from the 2023 draft class?
This year several of the risers are age 23 or higher, including Cody Mauch, John Michael-Schmitz, O’Cyrus Torrence, Will McDonald, and Daiyan Henley. Other risers have college film that doesn’t show anything near what the excitement level is for them after the week.
I won’t go through every one of them, but if I had to place a bet on a third of these guys – which is around the historical hit rate – these would be who I would pick:
All the OL guys: The one position (besides kickers) that doesn’t have an age drop-off is OL so if you are unsure, just take a lineman. Mauch has great footwork and showed he can play across the line… Schmitz is my top center… Dawand moves way better than most give him credit for and gave up 5 pressures this year… O’Cyrus may not fit the Eagles scheme but I like him. If I had to pick, I’d take Dawand and Mauch.
Keeanu Benton: I don’t love this DT class after Carter, but Keeanu has both one of the better pass rush win rates and run stop rates on the interior. Really good explosiveness and hands.
Will McDonald: One of the oldest guys in this class, he will be 24 to start the NFL season and EDGE has one of the worst track records for older players in the draft. Last year I cautioned on Jermaine Johnson for this reason, but unlike Johnson, Will is not a late breakout guy – he has the highest win rate in this class and was just as good at Iowa as a 21 year old. I may regret this but think he bucks the history on age.
And I’ll add two Honorable Mention guys I love but they were not consistently mentioned as risers: Georgia safety Chris Smith II and Iowa State WR Xavier Hutchinson.
I dove into Chris Smith earlier in the year here and think he is one of the most polished deep safeties in this class. He plays deep 70% of snaps but despite that, has one of the highest run stop rates. And he has the highest pass breakup rate in this safety class. For what Philly wants in a safety, Smith fits it well and is going to be good value day 2 or early day 3.
Hutchinson has a Sirianni connection and embodies what he wants. He’s big with good crispness on his routes. Iowa State head coach Matt Campbell, who was college teammates with Nick Sirianni, raves about Hutchinson’s work ethic, desire for perfection, and willingness to work with the younger players on the team. He would be a nice potential upgrade at WR3 for Philly, especially if Pascal leaves in free agency.
Background on player value data All player value metrics referenced here use ProFootballReference’s Approximate Value (AV) metric, which puts a single value on a player’s season and is created for all positions. AV is highly correlated to EPA but, unlike EPA which is only directly available for QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs, AV is created for all positions, allowing valuationg of players across positions.
Player value percentiles are simply comparing player value against all other players either in aggregate or within their position. A player percentile of 60 means that player generate more value than 60% of other players.
Close Games, Blitzing, And The Rush Attack: A Look At The Eagles / Chiefs Super Bowl
I’ve only written deep dives into two games this year – the Titans game which most circled as the first big test for the Eagles and the NFC Championship game against the 49ers. In both I thought the Eagles were clearly the better team.
The Super Bowl is different, but that’s what you get when you have the top two teams playing. If you dive into the stats, they are freakishly even in so many areas:
KC’s offense is ranked 1st in passing and 9th in rushing by DVOA, the Eagles offense is ranked 9th in passing and 1st in rushing
The Philly defense is 1st against the pass and KC is the top passing offense
Both teams suffer defending the run, with Philly 25th and KC 22nd in the league
And both offenses run the ball well with the historically great Eagles’ rush offense top in the league and KC 9th (more on this one later though)
Both teams generate a lot of explosive plays with KC generating 162 explosives this year vs. Philly’s 161
If you feel really confident on this game, I envy you.
I do think the Eagles win this game, though, and it comes down to a few reasons.
Kansas City has only faced 3 top offenses
Both teams had some of the easiest schedules in the league, so there is no difference there. But Kansas City just hasn’t faced many good offenses and they lost two of the three (Buffalo and Cincinnati in the regular season).
Below shows the KC opponents in blue ranked by their rush (y-axis) and pass (x-axis) offenses. Their three losses this season are circled.
The Eagles – especially on the ground – will be a far better offense than the KC defense has faced all year.
The Chiefs have been in a ton of close games
The Chiefs have played in 12 one-score games this year including both of their playoff games, going 9-3. Many view one-score games as a component of team “luck”, but that is not right. Better teams, and better quarterbacks, win more close games.
But it does show how close many of KC’s games have been and how several of them were there for the winning. Here’s a run down of their one-score games:
Week 2
27-24 win vs. Chargers
KC gets a pick-six to go up 7, adds a FG, Herbert leads a late drive to get within 3
Week 3
17-20 loss to Colts
KC misses a 4th quarter FG and then Matt Ryan leads and 8-minute TD drive to go ahead with 24 seconds remaining
Week 5
30-29 win vs. Raiders
Raiders score with 4 minutes left and fail going for two to go ahead instead of kicking the XP to tie, KC holds to win
Week 6
20-24 loss to Bills
Allen throws a late TD to go up, Mahomes throws a pick on their final drive
Week 9
20-17 OT win vs. Titans
Playing the titans who started Malik Willis, KC ties with a TD and 2-point conversion with 3 minutes left, goes on to win in OT with a FG
Week 11
30-27 win vs. Chargers
KC leads a TD drive to go ahead with 26 seconds remaining
Week 13
24-27 loss to Bengals
Cincy stops KC’s late drive at the 38 yardline and KC misses a 55-yard FG to tie
Week 14
34-28 win vs. Broncos
KC was in charge of this game the whole time, Denver scores to pull within 6 points early in the 4th but loses Wilson on the drive. Denver does intercept Mahomes late but Rypien throws a pick right back.
Week 15
30-24 OT win vs. Texans
KC misses a 51-yard FG with 8 seconds left but scores after Davis Mills fumbles on his own 15 yardline in OT
Week 17
27-24 win vs. Broncos
Another close game against the Broncos, KC allowed Denver to pull within 3 with 6 minutes left, but hold Denver on their final drive
DR
27-20 win vs. Jaguars
Jacksonville was down 10 until a late FG but was not threatening in this game despite Mahomes being out for part of it
CC
23-20 win vs. Bengals
In the 4th Burrow on 3rd-and-3 throws a deep pass that gets tipped and intercepted, KC later kicks a FG with 3 seconds left to win the AFC Championship
As a comparison, the Eagles have been in 7 one-score games, going 6-1. The Eagles had to score late against the Colts and Cardinals to win and the one loss to Dallas was the Gardner Minshew led-game, but the other 4 games were never in doubt.
Most likely this game will be close at the end and everybody (rightfully) focuses on Mahomes, but Jalen Hurts has been elite this year scoring late.
For more detail if interested, I wrote earlier in the season about how good Hurts is leading late half scoring drives, being 3rd in scoring success while having the 20th worst starting field position.
The Buddy Ryan / Jim Johnson fan club will always come out and demand Gannon blitz more. We will hear “you gotta blitz Mahomes with his ankle injury”.
No.
Just no.
Mahomes is the 4th LEAST blitzed QB in the league at only 24% of dropbacks facing a blitz. And for good reason. He leads the league against the blitz with a 115.8 passer rating, with 1,449 yards on 182 pass attempts, 17 TDs to 3 INTs and a league-low 7.4% pressure-to-sack rate allowed. The blitz doesn’t bother him and he creates masterfully against it.
The teams that did best against KC didn’t blitz. In the six games where KC lost or were held to 20 points or less, here are the blitz stats from the opposing defenses:
17-20 loss to Colts
Faced only 2 blitzes (4.8% of dropbacks)
20-24 loss to Bills
9 blitzes (19.1%)
20-17 win vs. Titans
5 blitzes (6.4%)
24-27 loss to Bengals
5 blitzes (16.1%)
27-20 playoff win vs. Jaguars
14 blitzes (43.8%)
23-20 playoff win vs. Bengals
13 blitzes (26.0%)
Only twice have these teams blitzed Mahomes more than 20% of dropbacks – both of the playoff games when Mahomes’ ankle was injured. Both losses.
In both games Mahomes was still very good against the blitz:
Against Jacksonville on his hurt ankle, Mahomes went 10/13 for 89 yards with 1 TD, no INTs, and a 120.4 passer rating
Against the Bengals, he went 11/13 for 129 yards, 1 TD and no INTs, and a 133.7 passer rating
I don’t think I get many of the “blitz every down” crowd for readers, but if you are watching the game yelling at the TV for Gannon to blitz more, think about this.
Maybe his ankle really isn’t better but the Eagles can generate pressure without blitzing and will choose to have +1 coverage against Mahomes which is very much needed.
We trust in Jonathan “f***ing gut these guys” Gannon.
And of course the run game…
I talk about it all the time, but the Eagles rush offense deserves it. This team has 4 of the top 25 rushing games since 2010. And they have done it against everybody.
The Eagles have played 7 games against top-10 run defenses, including the top two run defenses (San Francisco is 1st and Tennessee is 2nd).
They didn’t try to run against Tennessee, instead attacking their corners deep, but showed they can run against any defense. Against these top-10 run defenses, the Eagles averaged over 100 yards a game including 150 in the NFC championship game against the much-feared SF defense.
Kansas City is 22nd in the league against the run and has allowed over 100 yards 12 times this season. Against the three better-than-league-average run offenses they have faced, they have averaged over 120 yards of rushing allowed.
Expect another massive, run-heavy game form the Eagles.
I don’t love this game, it’s never easy facing a QB like Mahomes, but so far this season the Eagles have shown they are only in trouble when they turn the ball over 4 times (Washington loss), don’t have Hurts (New Orleans loss), or both (Dallas loss).
If Kansas City can straight up beat this team, it will be the first time this season the Eagles just get beat. And Kansas City will rightly be the best team in the league. But until then, I’m picking the Eagles.
I don’t do score predictions but was asked on Twitter, so what the heck. It’s going to be high-scoring and a one-score game… Eagles 41-33.
Kenneth Gainwell’s Remarkable Path to the Super Bowl
Gainwell has been playing his best football, on the biggest stage. While some in the league are surprised, his teammates, coaches, and family are not. He has been preparing for this moment his entire life, and for those who don’t know him, it’s time to meet Kenneth Gainwell!
In the divisional round against the Giants, Gainwell had his coming out party. He ran 12 times for 112 yards and TD.
The Eagles soared to victory.
Versus the stout 49ers defense, he carried the ball 14 times and added 2 receptions for a total of 74 all-purpose yards. The team ran for 148 yards in total.
The Niners had only allowed a 74 yards per-game average on the ground all season.
Now Kenneth is heading to the Super Bowl and he is being counted on to perform.
Gainwell is relishing the challenge and facing it with the same swagger and optimism he and his family has while overcoming every challenge life has thrown their way.
He plays hard, and with a love of the game, for his teammates, his friends and his family.
Who become, all one in the same.
Family
Gainwell has always put family first. His family means everything to him. He doesn’t just say it, he backs it up with his actions, and he lives it. Gainwell played every down with everything he had at Mississippi and Memphis. He’d look into the stands to find his brother Curtis. He did it for his family. He did it to honor his older brother.
“What he’s gone through, what he’s had to deal with, has only made me work harder. I’m playing for both of us. To find him (Curtis, Jr.) in the stadium every time I scored just to see his smile. Every time he smiled it made me smile,” Kenneth continued “I’m just thankful to still have him still here on this earth. I’m proud of him. He’s working really hard.”
When Kenneth was 13-years-old, his older brother Curtis was attempting to become a Southern Mississippi walk-on for the football team when he suffered a life-altering stroke while weightlifting.
“I had a headache, I didn’t feel good that day. I knew there was something wrong. I didn’t know it was gonna be a stroke,” Curtis Gainwell recalled in an interview with ESPN. “If I didn’t get to the hospital in time, I could’ve been gone.”
He was given three life-saving surgeries in one day to stop the brain bleed and has since undergone four brain surgeries. Curtis then endured the daunting task of learning how to walk and talk again. Kenneth, who always looked up to his big brother, was motivated and given strength by Curtis’ resolve.
“I said bro feel my pain,” Curtis recalls. “(Kenneth) said I feel it bro, I saw you in that bed, wanting to get out that bed and walk.” Kenneth takes that to the field every time he plays.
Putting his family first would be done again during the pandemic.
Kenneth chose to opt out of the 2020 collegiate season while playing for Memphis just six days before the season opener. The reason, once again, is family. Kenneth’s father Curtis Gainwell Sr. spoke to The Commercial Appeal& in August 2020.
“He (Kenneth) decided that he didn’t want to take any chances with the coronavirus going on. You don’t want to get out there and get sick and bring it to us, his brother or his teammates,”.
The Gainwells had already lost four members of their family to this terrible virus. Kenneth explained “You know my family passed away, so it was a tough, tough decision. I love football. So it was really a tough decision to do. So I just had to do what was best for the fam”
Kenneth was leaving college, but not football. He had set his eyes on the NFL draft. In November of 2020, Kenneth left his family and hometown behind to train and prepare for the NFL alone in Orlando, Florida.
“So, basically, the next week after I opted out, I started training and I’ve been working out ever since. It’s been basically six months for me working out straight, non-stop. I’ve just been putting in the work, staying down, staying healthy throughout this process.”
He knew he had one amazing season on tape and that if he worked hard, he would get a chance at being drafted into the NFL. As always, his family was at the forefront of his mind.
“It will be real special. I’m just ready to see their faces once my name gets called. It’s going to make me want to work even harder because they had that dream too. I get to live it. They get to live it. So, I’m just excited.”
Yazoo
Kenneth grew up in Yazoo City, Mississippi, and went to Yazoo City High School. The same high school as his cousin, current Philadelphia defensive tackle Fletcher Cox. He was a three-year starter at QB for the Panthers. He threw for 3,682 yards with 32 passing touchdowns. Kenneth added another 4,730 yards rushing and 75 rushing touchdowns. He even returned a kickoff to add another touchdown to his impressive touchdown total of 108. Kenny was named Class 3A Mr. Football his senior year of high school as he led the Panthers to their first Class 3A state title championship game appearance while compiling an impressive 14–1 record.
After graduating in 2018, Kenneth chose to attend Memphis over Ole Miss. He only played four games as a true freshman (he was playing behind future NFL pros Darrell Henderson, Patrick Taylor, and Tony Pollard) and decided to redshirt the rest of the season and focus on training.
When he returned in the summer of 2019, it was apparent his hard work had paid off. Gainwell became the feature back, starting 13 of 14 games while rushing for 1,459 yards and 13 scores on 231 carries (6.3 per carry avg). He also was a valuable weapon as a receiver (51 receptions, 610 yards, 12.0 average, three touchdowns). His game was so good that NFL RB Antonio Gibson only received 33 total carries. At season’s end, Kenneth was named first-team All-American Athletic Conference and the AAC Rookie of the Year. The ascent to the NFL was finally at hand. All that was left to do was wait and see where he would end up.
Eagles
Gainwell was selected by the Eagles in the fifth round with the 150th overall pick. By most draft expert estimations, this was a late-round steal. The dual-threat running back was projected to go as high as the second and was easily in almost every mock as a third. Kenneth was grateful his dream to reach the NFL had just become a reality.
“My heart stopped beating for a little bit you know,” he told Sky Sports when he saw the Philly area code on his phone on draft day. “Just seeing the call pop up on my phone, my heart stopped beating and I didn’t know what to say really. I was like ‘I’m just ready to come ball, ready to put in that work.’ I’ve been dreaming about this for a long time and getting an opportunity to play for a team that I’m a fan of. I’m really a fan of the Eagles now. I’m going to be a student and a guy that is going to show love to the fans. It’s exciting.”
He stated he spent his childhood studying the footwork of LeSean McCoy and Darren Sproles, amongst others. He was ready to add his name to the Eagles’ family of running backs.
Philadelphia was just as excited about drafting Kenneth as he was about being selected by them. He immediately impressed in training camp by not only showing everyone in person what was already on tape (the receiving and rushing threat) but, at a reported 5-foot-9 200 pounds, he was standing up tall in blocks. “I’m a rare breed,” he said. “I’m a different one.”
His ability as a receiver might have been what attracted the Eagles to Gainwell. But his willingness to block will be what earns him consistent playing time.
“Yeah, he had to show that he could protect.” HC Nick Sirianni said. “Because we know his ability as a pass-catcher. We’ve seen his ability as a pass-catcher. We’ve seen it even more in practice and all the different drills we do and everything. He’s a tough kid. When guys are tough, and they like football and they really love football and they have talent, those guys reach their potential”
Gainwell agrees, and he has put in the work to back it up.
“I’m bringing an attitude that is real different. I’m bringing a talent that I feel the Eagles don’t have, a running back you can legit put in the slot and run any routes. A legit guy you can throw all over the field and that can dominate anywhere on the field. That’s what I feel like I bring. I feel dangerous in the backfield. I feel dangerous in the slot — kind of both spots. I’m an athlete. I dominate everywhere. Anywhere they put me even if it’s on special teams. Everywhere on the field.”
Kenneth wasted little time showing the world what he could do in the NFL during his rookie year in the season opener. He was on the field during the two-minute drill at the end of the first half against the Atlanta Falcons as they went down and scored a touchdown and a two-point conversion. He then scampered for an eight-yard TD run of his own in the third quarter.
“He has the best hands in our running back room,” Miles Sanders said. “That’s his thing — the two-minute drill. That’s it.”
Super Bowl
Gainwell displayed that same shiftiness and ability to find the end zone when the Eagles played the Chiefs also during his rookie season last year.
He had a very productive day: six receptions for 58 yards and three carries for 31 yards and a touchdown.
Another performance like that could have the Eagles holding up a Lombardi trophy.
Gainwell is about to be playing in the biggest game of his career and the one every player dreams of, And yet, not a thing has changed.
He’s still the same Kenneth Gainwell, who is driven to succeed while being daring on the football field.
He is also, you guessed it, still doing it all for family.
“I plan on putting my family in situations to be great.”
PHILADELPHIA, PA - AUGUST 19: Landon Dickerson #51 of the Philadelphia Eagles walks on the field prior to the preseason game against the New England Patriots at Lincoln Financial Field on August 19, 2021 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
Landon Dickerson is a couple of days away from playing in his first NFL Championship game, and his eccentric background gives him a unique way of staying grounded.
From Cartwheels, Black Belts, Poets, and Overalls, Landon Dickerson is quite possibly, the most interesting man in the world.
Get to know, the real Landon Dickerson!
When Landon was drafted in the 2nd round of the 2021 NFL Draft, a lot of fans bemoaned the fact the Eagles were taking “another injury guy”. After an amazing rookie season that saw Landon dominating on the line, wherever he was asked to play, he has most fans rethinking their earlier stance. And deleting those old receipts.
During Landon’s rookie season, the Eagles finished the 2021 season rushing for 2715 yards, first overall in the entire NFL, they also rushed for a league-high 25 touchdowns. Dickerson played a large role in that success.
2022 brought more of the same.
Landon was ranked number one in run block win rate per PFF and second in pass blocking win rate. Impressive domination that they leaned on in the divisional round of the playoffs.
The Eagles relied on a strong running game to start the playoffs off, and they did it with huge success against the NY Giants rushing for 268 yards.
And as imposing as the O-Line was in the run game, they were equally as impressive in the passing attack. They also only allowed one sack the entire game, and that would be the only hit QB Jalen Hurts took the entire night.
The youthful and scrappy left side of the Eagle’s offensive line, Mailata, and Dickerson are leading the way.
They are young, hungry, nasty, and mauling anyone in site.
And the best part is, they both love it. They enjoy lining up and just beating their opponent down snap after snap.
Weighing in at a massive combined listed weight of 698 pounds, those beatdowns are happening early and often.
The disciplines that are benefiting Landon and the Eagles were learned at a very young age.
Path to the NFL:
Dickerson was born September 30, 1998, and grew up in Hickory, North Carolina. The same determination he uses to train he brings to the field every week. That attitude has always been a part of his personality. Landon earned a black belt at the age of 11, the youngest ever at the dojo he trained in. Martial arts wasn’t his only interest as a child, “I have a gymnastics background, so I did that for quite a few years. When I was younger I tumbled a lot.” which explains his now-famous cartwheels video.
By the time he started playing High School Football for South Caldwell High, he was already being recognized as a top four-star recruit. He was also formulating personality traits that have served him well ever since. While in high school, Landon stated that while studying Henry David Thoreau in English, he read the piece “Walking” and how the words spoke to him. Thoreau wrote “Above all, we cannot afford not to live in the present” and Dickerson stated “His ideas really kind of appeal to me. He’s been an interest to me. I just try to put the past behind me, whether good or bad. You’ve got to just keep working and getting better every day”
College:
After graduation Landon decided to play at Florida St, choosing them over Tennessee, Virginia Tech, Georgia, and Auburn amongst others. He was named the starting right guard for the Seminoles as a true freshman during training camp. The first to do so for the school since 1982. He started seven games before suffering a season-ending knee injury, an issue that would follow him throughout his collegiate career.
His sophomore season ended much the same, this time after four games due to another injury. Dickerson sustained an ankle injury two games into his third year and used a redshirt medical exemption. The injury label was starting to become a part of his reputation and he opted to go to Alabama as a graduate transfer (he already earned his undergraduate degree from Florida St) to play his final two seasons of NCAA eligibility.
Once at Alabama, just like his first year with FSU, Landon was named starting right guard for the Crimson Tide. Unlike at FSU, Dickerson was moved to center in week five (he had never played center at any level) and played the final 9 games of the year there. He quickly excelled at the position and was named second-team All-Southeastern Conference.
Landon began his redshirt senior season as the starting center and after a very successful year dominating at the position, the injury bug hit again. He suffered ligament damage in his right knee during the SEC Championship game. His determination and dedication during rehab were rewarded when he dressed for the 2021 College Football Championship game. Despite suffering a season-ending injury he entered the game during the final snap of Alabama’s National Championship victory over Ohio St.
Becoming an Eagle:
Heading into the draft the biggest, and only, concern was his extensive injury history. Dickerson would have been a first-round pick, maybe even a top 15 selection, if not for his most recent injury. Landon still had plenty of supporters. Including Brian Baldinger, “He’s my favorite player in the draft. He’ll start the fight and finish the fight.”
Philadelphia was also enamored. Dickerson stated that he spoke to the Eagles a few times heading into the draft. “We had good meetings throughout that (draft process) I love coach Stoutland, he has an Alabama background, great dude. I look forward to getting coached by him.” He also stated that his role with the team was never discussed. “I have tape, I’ve started all 5 positions on the offensive line. My role is whatever coach thinks, whatever position I need to be in to make the team better” An attitude the Eagles loved.
The risk-reward would prove to be too great for General Manager Howie Roseman and the Eagles to pass on. Philadelphia selected Dickerson with the 37th overall pick in round two of the 2021 NFL Draft. Roseman stated, “(we) didn’t think there was any chance” he would be available at 37. “I think you understand there’s risk-reward in it. We rely on our medical staff to figure out the best way to handle these, we also don’t want to be risk-averse. We want to take chances”
With the Eagles’ recent history of dealing with injuries and having taken a similar risk in the 2017 draft with injured cornerback Sydney Jones, most fans, pundits, and beat writers that follow the team were highly skeptical. Jones had a redshirt rookie season, and the risk didn’t pay off. They seemingly overcorrected and didn’t draft DK Metcalf in 2019 due to medical concerns and selected JJ Arcega Whiteside. The Eagles, having been previously burned on both sides of the coin, had a slightly different approach and reasoning during the 2021 draft. The difference this time was that the Eagles believed Dickerson (unlike Jones) would be able to play his rookie year. And play he has.
In addition to beating his opponents, as a rookie he was credited with the fifth-highest run block win rate amongst all guards. His desire to get better is contagious and noticed by everyone in the locker room. Including his coaches. Sirianni on Dickerson “I continue to see Landon get better, he cares, he’s tough, he’s physical, and he’s going to just keep getting better. Coach Stout is a great coach. If Landon comes in a day, he doesn’t feel like getting better that day. I promise you that Jeff Stoutland will make sure he’s feeling ready to get better that day.”
With Landon, working out and training isn’t something the Eagles will have to concern themselves with. During the pandemic, Dickerson was so dedicated to training and his craft that he bought a bunch of gym equipment, turning his carport into a gym for him and his then Alabama Crimson Tide teammates. He stated that the “gym” had a 300-gallon cold tub for recovery, a jugs machine for the wideouts, a whiteboard with individual workouts for each player, recovery shakes and that he provided sanitary services to prevent illness and ensure safety for everyone. “ I took a serious role in sanitary management, throughout that whole time we didn’t have one person contract covid or come to the house with Covid.”
It’s easy to see how after only playing two seasons at Alabama he became a team and fan favorite. He has endeared himself to the Philadelphia faithful just as quickly. Whether it be sneaking out of the house to wear his overalls. Training hard to get ready to play for the 2021 season. Playing at a level that makes everyone forget he is a rookie. Or instilling his dedication and work ethic in all of his teammates. Landon is winning over the fan base, the locker room, and every team he has faced.
2021 was a year to remember for Dickerson. A college National Championship. Being selected in the second round by the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFL draft. Getting engaged to former beach volleyball player, Brooke Kuhlman. (She played for both FSU and Alabama like her fiancé.) And having a starting position on an offensive line that dominates every week.
Chasing a Championship:
The 2022 season has Landon and the Eagles on the cusp of bringing more success. They are 2 games away from being World Champions.
His work ethic is a big reason why.
“I am going to give everything to the city of Philly and my team. I m going to work every day.”
And while his passion and desire haven’t changed, the challenges and quality of opponents have intensified as he chases his first Super Bowl ring.
As always, Thank You for reading!
To everyone who assisted me, whether it was on the phone, by email, or by tweeting me back, much appreciated.
How did the Eagles win a Super Bowl, appear in a conference-leading seven championships games, be victorious in 15 playoff games, and still manage to net 10 draft picks?
Well, allow me to show you.
Congratulations!
You are the lucky finder of the golden ticket
So, come with me to a world of pure imagination and behold all of its greatness and success.
I invite you to witness, the Quarterback Factory!
The Factory:
The genesis of the factory begins with the hiring of Head Coach Andy Reid in 1999.
As a former O-line coach (Andy spent 9 years coaching the O-line in college with 4 different teams, and another 5 in the NFL with Green Bay) he brought with him an emphasis on building a team via the trenches.
But Reid was also a student of the game and had been since he was a teenager.
It’s been written that BYU head coach LaVell Edwards allowed Reid to be a member of the BYU team in an effort to help persuade and recruit his best friend Randy Tidwell to the Cougars.
Andy went along for the ride and despite his teammates recalling that he did not play very often, he was very engaged, and closely studied Edwards and the offensive coordinator. Especially the development of the QBs.
Long before Howie Roseman uttered his now-famous QB factory phrase, BYU was known for being a “QB factory”. The program produced former Eagles Jim McMahon (Andy’s teammate) and Ty Detmer, as well as Steve Young and Marc Wilson. And it also produced a lot of knowledge that Andy took with him to the NFL.
Two years before arriving in Philadelphia, Reid was working as a QB coach with the Packers teaching All-Pro Brett Favre and also legendary Eagles HC Doug Pederson.
Reid brought an infatuation for the QB position with him to Philadelphia honed by a labor of love that he had learned years earlier.
Having an elite QB as well as very capable backups in the QB room who promote healthy competition while also supporting one another became a core belief that lasted well beyond Andy’s time with the team.
Many of Andy’s imprints and philosophies are still all over this team today, as are a few of his draft picks. Jason Kelce, Fletcher Cox, and Brandon Graham.
And much like Andy Reid in BYU before him, Howie absorbed information, strategy, and philosophies from Andy that live on in today’s quest towards another championship.
McNabb was drafted with much fanfare as the 2nd overall pick in the 1999 draft. Well not really, most fans wanted Ricky Williams, but I digress.
After 11 seasons, 9 playoff wins, including 5 trips to the NFC Championship game (3 at home), and one Super Bowl appearance he had won over all of his doubters and is now viewed as the greatest player in Eagles history.
Well, once again, not really. But the then-named Washington Redskins still had a lot of hope in his declining ability and they traded for him in April of 2010.
The Eagles’ return was a 2nd-round pick (37th overall) in the 2010 NFL draft and a 4th-round pick in 2011.
A.J. Feeley
The Eagles drafted AJ in the 5th round of the 2001 draft. He spent his rookie season as the 3rd string QB behind both Donovan and fan favorite, Koy Detmer. He saw his only action in the season finale but was going to be asked to do a lot more in his sophomore year.
In 2002 both McNabb and Koy suffered injuries bringing AJ into duty. The Eagles were 8–3 at the time and making a push for the number one seed in the NFC. Feeley went 4–0 down the stretch preserving the one seed while also showing enough for other teams to have interest in acquiring him.
Despite not playing at all in 2003, the Miami Dolphins had already seen enough talent in his limited play and made a trade for Feeley in March 2004.
The Eagle’s return was a 2nd round pick in the 2005 draft.
In 2007 the Birds were once again looking for a backup/replacement for Donovan McNabb. This time, they drafted Kevin Kolb in the 2nd round.
McNabb did not like the Eagles using a 2nd round resource for his backup and it strained the relationship between QB and head coach. Sound familiar?
Kolb was promoted to 2nd string QB during the 2008 season but didn’t start a game until 2009. At this point, the Eagles were becoming wary of McNabb as the starter and by season’s end it seemed apparent Donovan would be on the way out.
In April of 2010, the relationship between McNabb and the Eagles had dissolved to the point where he was shipped to a division rival and Kevin was named the starter.
Unfortunately for Kolb, in his debut that year versus the Green Bay Packers, he sustained a concussion and ultimately lost his job to backup Mike Vick.
He would only play in a few more games for the Eagles organization.
Much like the Dolphins and Feeley before them, the Arizona Cardinals had seen enough of Kolb to become infatuated and made a trade for him during the summer of 2011.
When Nick Foles was drafted in the 3rd round of the 2012 draft, Andy Reid was in his final season in Philadelphia and was once again drafting a QB for the future.
Foles performed well in the pre-season and some thought he should be the starter over Mike Vick when the season began, but he would only start 6 games down the stretch, and only after a Vick injury.
2013 brought a new head coach to Philadelphia, Chip Kelly, and another competition to be the starting QB. Nick once again performed well in the pre-season but began the year as Mike’s backup, once again.
Vick struggled during the season and Foles eventually took over the job after Mike sustained a hamstring injury. Foles went on to go 8–3 over the rest of the season throwing for an impressive 27 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions. He also led the Eagles to a home playoff game. The legend of Nick was beginning.
Nick only played 8 games in 2014 after breaking his collarbone.
But, once again, a team had seen enough of another Eagle’s QB to make a trade. This time, the St Louis Rams were up to bat. Foles was traded before the 2015 draft.
The Eagle’s return was Sam Bradford and a 5th-round pick for Foles, a 2015 4th-rounder, and a 2016 2nd-round draft pick.
*Nick would be brought back a couple of years later, as a backup once again, where he led the Eagles to Super Bowl glory and cemented himself into Philadelphia history both figuratively and literally.
Sam Bradford
Despite signing a 2-year 36 million dollar contract extension on March 1, 2016, Bradford played only one year for the Eagles, starting 14 games while finishing with a 7–7 record during the 2015 season.
The Minnesota Vikings were a team many thought could win the Super Bowl in 2016 until their starting QB, Teddy Bridgewater, suffered a season-ending ACL tear a week before opening day. In an act of desperation to keep their championship aspirations alive, they made a trade for Sammy Sleeves.
The Eagle’s return was the Vikings’ 2017 first-round-pick, and a conditional 4th in the 2018 draft.
Nick Foles part Deux
Nick returned to Philadelphia in 2017 as a free agent.
His success during his 2nd tenure has been well documented.
We all know Foles won playoff games and a Super Bowl, and despite outplaying the oft-injured Carson Wentz, we all know he was going to be relegated as a backup during the 2019 season.
The Super Bowl MVP declined his option, making him a free agent.
The Eagle’s return was a 2020 compensatory 3rd-round pick.
Carson Wentz
Carson was drafted number two overall in the 2016 NFL draft with the expectation of being a backup for Sam Bradford. When the aforementioned trade of Bradford to the Vikings went down, Carson was named the starter.
Wentz started all 16 games that season and the Birds finished with a 9–7 record. Carson was showing major improvement during the season, but nobody could have predicted the leap he was about to take in 2017.
Much like this 2022 season, 2017 was a fun ride from the beginning.
Carson was having one of the best regular seasons by a QB in Eagles history and was the likely MVP of the league until he sustained a season-ending knee injury after leading the team to an 11–2 record over the 13 games he started.
Unfortunately for him, it would be the beginning of what became a plethora of injuries and frustration.
Carson’s backup, Nick Foles, who returned to Philadelphia after a 3-year hiatus, led the Eagles to their first Lombardi trophy and would seemingly shine in every game Carson was injured. The Eagles stayed the course with Carson and gave him a 4 year $128 million contract extension in June of 2019, but eventually, their disagreements and Carson’s ineffectiveness would take their toll.
The Eagles drafted Jalen Hurts in the 2nd round of the 2020 NFL draft which caused Carson to feel the same way McNabb did 13 years before him.
The damage was irreparable and Wentz was traded to Indianapolis in Feb 2021.
The Eagles’ return was a 2022 1st-round pick (16 overall) and a 2021 3rd-round pick (84 overall)from the Colts.
Jalen Hurts
We have reached the present day, which sadly brings us to the conclusion of our tour.
Meet QB Jalen Hurts.
The player drafted that had Howie saying his famous QB factory quote.
“For better or worse, we are quarterback developers. We want to be a quarterback factory.”
And as history shows, they have.
The Results:
So, the bounty, prior to Sunday’s NFC championship matchup vs the Niners
2 Players (D.R.C. and Sammy Sleeves)
10 Draft Picks (including 2 first-rd and 3 second-rd)
15 Playoff Wins
1 Super Bowl
While largely ridiculed, the results are an overwhelming success.
The QB factory may be the greatest creation in the Eagles’ history.
Who would have thought that one of the most honest statements that ever left Howie Roseman’s lips would become so influential to the success of the organization?
Instead of laughing, maybe teams should have been emulating.
Maybe Howie Roseman ends another season with the last laugh.
“So shines a good deed in a weary world.” Willy Wonka via Wil Shakespeare
As always, Thank You for reading!
David
1–24–22
Follow me on Twitter @PHLEaglenews and @PhillyCvrCorner
Where the 49ers are Strong, the Eagles are Stronger
It’s always interesting digging into the data ahead of a game as you generally don’t know where it will take you.
Earlier in the season, I dug into the Eagles/Titans game as it was the one many circled as the first big test for the Eagles. After looking at it, I felt the Eagles matched up really well and it played out that way. The points I made were:
Good pass defenses allowed stacking the box to contain Derrick Henry and the Eagles limited Henry to 30 yards on 11 attempts
The Titans didn’t defend deep passing well and Philly had a silly 8 explosive passes for 218 yards
Philly’s pass rush was a distinct strength against the Titans’ poor OL and Tannehill took 6 sacks while under pressure on 41.9% of dropbacks
The Titans had a good run defense but struggled against mobile QBs – this one I missed on as Hurts didn’t need to run
So what about the 49ers this week?
I hate saying it but I think it is very much going to be a game about all the football cliches.
The 49ers run defense vs. the Eagles run game
The 49ers are statistically the league’s 2nd best run defense but they haven’t faced any team that runs as well as the Eagles. That’s because there is no other team remotely close to the Eagles.
I’ve written about how historic this Eagles run offense is with 4 of the top 25 run games since 2010 but just focusing on this season, they have an EPA/rush twice the 2nd best team. Twice.
As for the 49ers, yes, they have a very good defense but they have only faced two top 10 rushing offenses this season:
Week 6 against the Falcon’s 5th ranked rush offense: The 49ers gave up 168 yards on 40 carriers, a 43.6% success rate, and 0.041 EPA/rush
Week 7 against the Chiefs’ 10th ranked rush offense: 112 yards on 21 carries, a 47.4% success rate, and a 0.293 EPA/rush
San Francisco has a very good defense and Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw are both having silly good years. But the Eagles will be able to run because they have already shown it. This season, when Philly started Hurts they played 5 games against 4 of the top 10 run defenses by DVOA and gained 138, 112, 94, 75, and 67.
And last season when SF was again the 2nd ranked run defense, Philly in a frustrating loss ran for 151 yards on 29 carries with Hurts doing a ton of the damage.
Hurts didn’t run much Saturday against the Giants but I expect him to be way more active this week. He will need to be.
Generating explosive plays
The 49ers defense is a lot like the Eagles’ defense in that it limits explosive plays – San Francisco is 2nd in league in limiting explosive plays and Philly is 5th.
This is one of those idiotic analyst self-defining stats because of course explosive plays are helpful, but the teams that had success against the 49ers all were able to create explosives:
Week 7 Chiefs: 11 explosives (25.9% rate)
Week 13 Dolphins: 8 explosives (19.0% rate) – game ended 33-17 but was a one score game until 2 minutes left in the 4th
Week 17 Raiders: 9 explosive plays (13.8% rate)
Like the Eagles, they construct their defense that way.
But the Eagles have been excellent at morphing their offensive plan this season and we should expect a lot more deep passing than we saw against the Giants when Hurts only threw deep twice all game.
And the 49ers will give up deep passing. This season they have given up the 5th most deep passing yards and when you look at just the second half of the season, they have given up the most in the league. In their last 5 games, here are what opponents have done on deep passing:
Commanders: 2 passes / 4 completions /76 yards
Raiders: 4/7/153
Cardinals: 1/4/77
Seahawks: 2/4/74
Cowboys: 1/5/46
The Eagles are the best deep passing team in the league by far, with 500 yards on 13 downfield completions, over 100 yards more than the next closest team.
One or both of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith (and Quez Watkins if you want to make your call) will have some big catches. The Eagles will need it and expect them to attack downfield.
Turnover luck? Or skill?
You will often hear turnovers being referred to as “luck”, at least in the analytical sense. I don’t totally agree with that, I think there is a bit more stability with turnovers but more on the offensive side (QBs that turn the ball over continue to do so).
This is another one of the cliche parts. The Eagles need to not turn the ball over.
Not shocking but here’s some data on why this is important.
The 49ers are 1st in the league in value gained from turnovers, totaling 152.1 EPA gained over the season (the Eagles are 4th at 129.6 EPA gained).
And an even greater percentage of their turnover value has come the past since week 13, with 16 turnovers generated, averaging two per game. In a league with an overall turnover play rate of 1.95%, the SF defense generates a turnover on an absurd 2.71% of plays.
Again, they are a very good defense and good defenses cause turnovers, but they have also faced a lot of offenses that turn the ball over a lot. Only 3 of their opponents are top ten in lowest turnover rates (week 7 vs. KC, week 10 vs. the Chargers, and week 14 vs. Tampa Bay). The others:
Week
Opponent
Opposing Offense Turnover Rate
Turnover Rate Rank
1
CHI
2.39%
28
2
SEA
2.11%
23
3
DEN
2.07%
22
4
LA
2.30%
26
5
CAR
1.92%
15
6
ATL
1.79%
11
7
KC
1.56%
7
8
LA
2.30%
26
10
LAC
1.73%
9
11
ARI
1.96%
17
12
NO
2.33%
27
13
MIA
2.00%
19
14
TB
1.67%
8
15
SEA
2.11%
23
16
WAS
2.15%
24
17
LV
1.86%
13
18
ARI
1.96%
17
19
SEA
2.11%
23
20
DAL
1.92%
16
That’s a who’s who list of turnover teams…
But the Philly offense is 4th best in the league in limiting turnovers with a 1.51% turnover play rate. San Francisco is also good, 6th in the league at 1.53% but the 49ers rely on turnovers more than the Eagles do.
The joke is the game plan against the Eagles is “hope they turn the ball over 4 times” and there is some truth to that – they have largely not been in any sort of trouble this year without turnovers. And if they stay out of turnover trouble this week, they will win.
The Eagles are very slightly favored, but where the 49ers are strong, the Eagles are stronger.
I said it is a cliche game and as much as I wanted to find some hidden analytical nuggets, it really does come down to limiting turnovers, generating explosives, and running the ball.
Jalen Hurts will be the most important player on the field and if he has a good game, the Eagles will roll. And how do you not bet on Hurts at this point.
And if you haven’t seen this, enjoy a couple of minutes of the Hurts vs. Purdy shootout in college:
Jalen Hurts vs. Brock Purdy was a movie in college
WagerWire Report: The Eagles Continue Their Historic Rushing and Pass Rush
The Eagles continued their historic rushing attack
With the game out of hand early, the Eagles ran for 268 yards on 44 carries and 2 TDs. The Eagles totaled 17.02 total EPA rushing against the Giants, the 3rd best rushing game in the entire league this season.
The only two better games? The Eagles in week 14 against the Giants (with 19.178 EPA) and again the Eagles in week 12 against Green Bay (19.127 EPA). The only other game this season that was close to the Eagles performance against the Giants was Cincinnati in week 9 when the Bengals totaled 16.982 EPA against Carolina, gaining 241 yards on 39 carries and 5 rushing TDs.
Miles Sanders and Kenny Gainwell had 8 explosive runs with four rushes of 12 yards, a 14-yarder, 16-yarder, 18-yarder, and Gainwell’s 35-yard TD run at the end. Only one team had more explosive rushes in a game this entire season when Carolina had 9 in week 16 against the Lions.
I wrote several weeks ago about just how dominant this team is running the ball and, if you missed it, here is the link. And with this game, the 2022 Eagles now have 4 of the top 25 rushing games since 2010.
The Eagles defense held Daniel Jones to his worst game of the year
The entire Eagles defensive line got to Daniel Jones, adding another 5 sacks to their historic season total. The only time Jones was sacked more times this year was week 11 against… the Eagles.
Jones had a -0.195 EPA/play and a -10.49 CPOE in the divisional round loss. This is Jones’ worst game of the season by EPA and second worst by CPOE. The last time Jones played the Eagles in week 11 he had his 3rd worst game of the season.
And this isn’t new. Nine opposing quarterbacks – Tannehill, Pickett, Cousins, Goff, Mills, Wentz, and Rush – have had one of their worst games of the season against the Eagles this year. One of the QBs not on this list? Dak who statistically had his 5th best game of the season against the Eagles in their week 16 win.
100% of the time the Eagles win a playoff game 38-7 they have gone on to win the Super Bowl
I didn’t actually go research this one to make sure there isn’t some old game I forgot about but pretty sure a 38-7 win means a Super Bowl.
It gets harder from here as both Dallas and San Francisco are much, much better teams. But this team has shown they can win mutliple ways and rarely are in trouble unless they turn the ball over.
Fly Eagles Fly!
Thanks to our friends at WagerWire for the support this year and for the Jalen Hurts jersey giveaway that went to @CinMoore29 last night!
The Eagles Season Not Many Saw Coming
I was pretty optimistic heading into the season.
I picked the Eagles to go as far as the NFC Championship game all the way back in May.
Now, I am thinking if Jalen Hurts is healthy, they can win the whole thing.
But the season didn’t start off as rosy as it now appears.
The way Jalen played in the Wild Card loss to Tampa Bay did not evoke much hope in his doubters and was the cause of a long, long, off-season.
Hurts fans had to endure listening to or reading half of the fan base wanting to trade 3 first-round picks for an accused sex offender or an aging QB who didn’t have any desire to play for this franchise.
“You can’t bring him back if you are going to improve the pass rush”
Well, wrong, wrong, and wrong again.
And I saved the best, or worst, for last.
Let’s just say this man was the recipient of the most hate slung at any Eagles player or coach in recent memory.
Defensive coordinator, Jonathan Gannon.
And it wasn’t just fans. Former players, the local media, and some national pundits agreed as well. J.G. must go!
“Fire Jon Gannon”
“They won’t win 8 games with him as DC”
“Gannon calls a zone coverage? Cowardly call”
“Gannon has to be fired or the Eagles won’t go anywhere”
And those are the nicer comments….whew
So how did the Eagles get to where they are today?
How did a team that garnered such little confidence, lock down the number one seed in their conference and become the favorite to represent the NFC in Super Bowl 57
Well….by basically doing everything the loudest part of the fan base didn’t want to do.
They kept every player and coach I just mentioned.
Jalen Hurts, known all off-season as “noodle arm”, elevated his game right before everyone’s eyes and became a legit MVP candidate. He also led the Eagles to a 14–1 record while he was at QB and became one of the 2 most feared offensive weapons in the game. Not too shabby!
Miles Sanders has played wonderfully. He also went on to have his best season as a pro, rushing for 1269 yards and 11 TDs.
Brandon Graham, a comeback player of the year candidate, arguably had the most productive season of his career. Graham finished the season strong with the most sacks in a single season of his career. Brandon also achieved his highest win rate, while being a key cog of a defense that had more sacks than any other team in Eagles history.
They only fell 2 short of the NFL’s all-time record.
Big Play Slay, along with newly signed backfield partner, James Bradberry, was part of a pass defense that ranked number one in the league by only allowing 179.8 yards per game. The fewest yards per game since 2001. The duo ended the year as one of the stingiest pass defenses this team has seen in 2 decades.
Fletcher Cox chipped in with a solid season as well and came on hard down the stretch chipping in with 7 sacks, a forced fumble, and a fumble recovery.
And Jonathan Gannon?
Well, he was the mastermind of the defense that saw the Eagles reach the aforementioned plauteus for both passing and sacks.
They were the first team to have 70 sacks in 33 years.
First in takeaways with 20
First in interceptions with 13
First in defending drives resulting in a turnover
Second in yards per game allowed
And the leader of the defense that just won the most games in franchise history
As a result of the success, by the season’s end, all of the above complaints have been forgotten, forgiven, or no longer exist due to amnesia. (I kid)
Well, everything above except the fire JG crowd. They just won’t go away. If the defense struggles in the playoffs, they will be louder than ever.
I digress, back to being optimistic.
The Eagles owner Jeff Lurie, General Manager Howie Roseman, and everyone in the front office deserves to be applauded.
The last two drafts, coupled with free agent signings that include Haason Reddick and James Bradberry and the shrewd trade acquisitions of CJ Gardner-Johnson and AJ Brown have the team exceeding almost every expectation.
The Eagles are now 3 wins away from extending this magical season and accomplishing what was unthinkable just five short months ago.
Winning a second Super Bowl championship.
This team has united all of the fans of differing opinions and will hopefully bring us together for another parade down Broad St.
Hope springs eternal!
As always, Thank You for reading!
Follow me on Twitter @PHLEaglenews @PhillyCvrCorner
David
1–19–22
Make sure you give yourself a chance to win this Jalen Hurts jersey from our friends @WagerWire
WagerWire Report: Quarterback Development, Weapons, and What QB-Needy Teams Need to Do
Just search Twitter for “Josh Allen” + your favorite young, underperforming QB and you will find post after post making a case for a repeat of Allen’s rise from a college QB that missed the Combine netting to one of the league’s best QBs.
And it happens in the draft every year… last year for Malik Willis and Desmond Ridder and this year for Will Levis and Anthony Richardson.
Allen’s story is well known. He finished college with a 56% completion percentage and a wretched completion percentage over expected (CPOE) of -9.2 playing in the Mountain West. But Allen developed.
Now the Eagles’ own Jalen Hurts, who had accuracy questioned by pre-draft scouts, has developed.
Allen still has the greatest improvement in accuracy in the league, but Hurts is now second, going from 37th in the league in 2020 with a -8.33 CPOE to 4th in 2022 with a +3.28 CPOE.
And they aren’t the only ones. Prior to both Allen and Hurts, Dak Prescott‘s mechanics and consistency were questioned (yes, this is an Eagles site but I am no Dak hater). Dak’s aggregate stats at Mississippi State were fine, but most scouting reports pointed to his splits on passing depth – over 60% of his attempts were 10 yards or less which drove up his stats and he suffered on anything downfield. But in the NFL Dak has only had one season with a negative CPOE – 2017 when he had a barely-below-zero CPOE of -0.2.
The innate vs. developing talent debate
With these examples, the widely and long-held view that a QB’s accuracy is innate and not something able to be developed has fallen.
Troy Aikman was speaking here about Allen specifically, but his was the majority of the league’s view just a few years ago: “I think as a quarterback when you’re inaccurate, from my experience as a player in studying these guys for the last 17 years, you usually do not overcome that.”
Saying that something like accuracy can’t be developed just doesn’t make sense.
Biomechanics training groups like 3DQB with Tom House and Adam Dedeaux, QB Summit with Jordan Palmer, kinesiologist Rob Williams’ SPORTCORE Performance, and Quincy Avery at QB Takeover are the ones changing this. But their work isn’t new. House famously helped Drew Brees relaunch his career after his 2005 shoulder injury and Tom Brady fix mechanical issues that crept into his game in 2012.
3DQB worked with Dak, Matt Ryan, Jared Goff, Matthew Stafford, and our own Jalen Hurts this past offseason. Jordan Palmer famously worked with Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, and Deshaun Watson. This year’s CJ Stroud worked with Avery and Palmer. Bryce Young is with 3DQB. Will Levis and Bo Nix are working with Rob Williams.
An understanding that accuracy issues often result from mechanical issues further down the kinetic chain – out of sync feet, too wide or narrow of a base, stride, hip and shoulder separation, front-arm location, head movement, and on and on – is what drives these groups. And new tech that builds visual models of the body in motion and pinpoints unseen issues in delivery has helped drive that change.
In a GQ.com interview, House explained this impact: “We’re in a perfect world right now where the technology is allowing people to identify stuff that’s never been seen before. The next piece of the puzzle after identification is solution. And that’s where we have a head start because we started our science in the mid-80’s.”
Two examples that will be relevant below:
Tom Brady’s front arm: House explained why Brady was missing high in 2012, pointing to his front arm being too low:
“Brady had everything good, except his front side was too low and leading too quick. The fix on that basically was keep your front side, basically your hand over your front foot and take a bite out of whatever burger you have in your hand. If you look at all the quarterbacks when they throw, it all looks like they’re taking a bite out of their front hand. It’s basically keeping all your energy going in one direction. How did I know that Tom Brady needed a little help with his front side elbow? Cause he was missing high and low. When you miss right and left, it’s your head. When you miss high and low, it’s your front side, elbow in his case.” – Tom House from GQ.com interview
Jalen Hurts’ “left leg lockout”:Trent Dilfer and Quincy Avery noticed back at a high school camp that Hurts was locking his left leg when throwing, making the throwing motion “jerky” and leading to accuracy issues, especially missing high.
“Jalen, you’re amazing, I love you, please don’t take this bad, but if you don’t fix this, you have no chance.” – Trent Dilfer, ESPN.com
Surrounding young QBs…
It’s hard to find a pro or top college QB that isn’t now working with one of these groups. But mechanics alone isn’t enough.
The Eagles give Hurts weapons
Last offseason, when many were questioning the Eagles’ commitment to Hurts, Howie said exactly what their plan was. “I think for us we have to do whatever we can to continue to help him develop. How do we do that? By surrounding him with really good players.”
Already possessing one of the league’s best offensive lines, Howie used a 2nd rounder to bring in Cam Jurgens a year after using a 2nd on Landon Dickerson.
Still suffering from a miss on Jalen Reagor, Howie, for a third year in a row, used a 1st rounder (this time with a trade) to bring in A.J. Brown, one of Jalen’s best friends and a young, elite receiver to pair with DeVonta Smith. The Eagles entered the 2022 season with an elite OL and an offense with three top receiving targets with Dallas Goedert.
The Bills improve the line and receivers
It’s the same approach Buffalo used with Josh Allen. In 2019, they invested in their receivers, spending almost $60 million in free agency to bring in Cole Beasley and John Brown. Still missing an explosive WR1, in 2020 they traded a 1st for Stefon Diggs.
The Bills spent another $70 million in 2019 on the OL when they brought in Mitch Morse, Ty Nsekhe, Spencer Long, and Jon Feliciano, improving from the middle of the league in 2019 to 4th in 2020.
And not to ignore the run game, the Bills have invested the 3rd most draft capital in the league in running backs since 2018, using three day 2 picks to bring in Zack Moss, Devin Singletary, and James Cook.
And the Dolphins finally load up for Tua
The same thing with Miami to support Tua. They added Jaylen Waddle, Cedrick Wilson, and Tyreek Hill at receiver on top of Mike Gesicki at TE, creating one of the most dangerous receiver groups in the league.
And after using a 1st on OT Austin Jackson in 2020 and a 2nd on Liam Eichenberg in 2021, they spent $90 million on OT Terron Armstead and OC Connor Williams this off-season, moving the Dolphins OL from last in the league to a not-as-awful 24th.
And not surrounding QBs…
What the heck are the Bears doing?
The knock on Fields wasn’t accuracy – he had the highest ever recorded college CPOE at +12 and unlike Allen and Zach Wilson, there weren’t concerns about Fields’ level of competition. The concern with Fields was and still is the timing of throws when he waits for a receiver to be open. This was the main concern with pre-2022 Hurts.
Can Fields develop this? Maybe. Hurts did, so you can’t say it’s impossible. But the Bears didn’t help Fields and now don’t know what they have.
Their OL statistically is a bit below middle of the league, but it isn’t good. They used 8 draft picks on the OL but only one was above a 5th rounder when they took Teven Jenkins in the 2nd. And they haven’t brought anybody in during free agency. This is an amusing thread for all but Fields himself:
This year Fields was under pressure 45.7% of snaps, the highest in the league. He definitely bears some responsibility here, though, as he holds the ball longer than any other QB in the league. But that brings us to his receivers…
The Bears are 28th in the league in cap spent on WRs this year after letting Allen Robinson leave in free agency. Darnell Mooney is WR1 and they traded for Chase Claypool during the season but this is nowhere near “good weapons”.
Now Chicago is sitting here with the top pick and wondering if they take a QB…
What do the QB-needy teams need to do?
Houston, Indy, Carolina, and Raiders are the clear teams sitting in the top 10 that need QBs. Who knows what Chicago will do at 1. The Jets and Commanders will need a restart but are in the middle of the 1st. Brady could retire. And the Lions could also decide to take a shot even though they still have Goff. New Orleans needs a QB but not sure if everybody knows they don’t have a 1st after trading it to Philly last year, crazily thinking they were a contender…
Here’s a look at where the definite and possible QB-needy teams rank on OL and pass catchers as well as current 2023 cap space before any moves to end the 2022 season:
Team
Top Picks(s)
Pass Block Rank
Pass Catcher Rank
2023 Cap Space
Chicago
1
16
32
$92.9M
Houston
2, 12
17
24
$40.3M
Indianapolis
4
32
29
$13.3M
Detroit
6, 18
18
3
$15.0M
Las Vegas
7
10
9
$22.3M
Carolina
9
11
28
-$7.6M
Tennessee
11
26
25
-$23.2M
New York Jets
13
21
21
-$2.4M
Washington
16
27
15
$7.3M
Tampa Bay
19
25
19
-$54.5M
New Orleans
40
16
13
-$58.1M
Many will be in the free agent QB market, but touching on a few of the top QB-needy teams:
Houston Texans – With their other pick in the 1st, they could go in a lot of directions as they have big needs on the DL as well. While they have Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins, they need to upgrade here and could look at Quentin Johnston or Jordan Addison. Or be in position for one of the top OTs to pair with Tunsil. Given their cap space, they have the luxury to draft BPA and go after OL or weapons in free agency. A new QB wouldn’t be in the worst position here.
Indianapolis Colts – Probably the worst starting spot for a new QB, the Colts have an uninspiring set of pass catchers and need to upgrade an OG spot and possibly OT unless you have faith in Raimann. They have needs in the secondary as well but need to resist the urge and invest around whichever QB they take. They have some cap space but receivers and tackles aren’t cheap in free agency.
Carolina Panthers – Maybe they give will Matt Corral a shot in 2023 but they are clearly not settled at the position and will have a shot at one of the second-tier guys in this draft. There’s reason to be hopeful on the OL after they took Ekwonu high last year and have a decent line today. They have D.J. Moore and drafted Terrace Marshall who has not progressed, but traded away Christian McCaffrey. They really need to invest in offensive weapons and given their cap space, they aren’t going to get it in free agency.
Tennessee, Tampa Bay, New Orleans – Each is in a not-great draft spot to get a QB and all are in awful cap situations. The Titans have Malik Willis and Tannehill has a big dead cap hit but they can save money if they move on from him. Tampa and New Orleans will have a tough time moving far enough up for a top QB without further mortgaging the future – they both need to look at blowing things up.
To me, nobody in this draft will be more fascinating to see where they go in the draft than Richardson. Currently around 20 on big boards, he could anywhere from top 10 to the middle rounds.
Richardson could be the poster child for this article. Highly athletic but raw with accuracy and mechanics issues. For every amazing play there is a head-scratcher. His film matches with a poor 53% completion percentage and 17 TDs vs. 9 INTs but one of the highest ADOTs and big-time throw rates in the class and over 700 yards rushing.
A lot going on in this clip. You can see the playmaking ability that Anthony Richardson naturally possesses. Accurate throw on the move, too.
Can also see him drifting into pressure and getting himself into trouble. Had this issue early in the season but improved. pic.twitter.com/ay5tCCjbpI
QB mechanics is absolutely NOT my specialty (I’m much better at punters…) but remember the two examples above – Brady’s front arm and Hurts’ left leg lockout – that led to inaccuracy, especially high? Richardson does both and when you watch, his accuracy issues are regularly passes missing high.
His game vs. Georgia was not great, going 18/38 for a 47.4% completion rate. And this included going 9/9 behind the LOS, leaving his passing beyond the LOS at 31%. Here’s a still from a screen pass that was completed only because the RB leapt to catch a way-too-high ball. His left arm is too low and you see this over and over on a lot of his errant throws.
And here, a two-fer where Richardson both locks his front leg and holds his front arm low, overthrowing Justin Shorter who had 2 yards on safety Malaki Starks for what should have been an easy touchdown. Again, this is something you see repeatedly with him.
Again I am no biomechanic expert but you don’t need to be to see these two examples in Richardson’s motion. And I’m not saying Richardson will make it, I don’t know… there are a hundred reasons to bet against him and, heck, with the best evaluators in the world still having a less than 15% hit rate on 1st round QBs let alone later round guys, betting against any and all QBs has much better odds than a casino’s house odds.
But Richardson is 21, just finished his first year as a starter, and only has 395 career pass attempts. He absolutely would need to develop behind another QB which is why I think it is unlikely he goes really high.
A team that is interesting to me is Detroit. The Lions have a great situation with Amon-Ra St. Brown and last year’s Jameson Williams, a good OL with youth on it, a ton of draft capital, and $28M in cap space next year before any moves.
Most don’t see the Lions taking a QB, instead wanting investments in the DL and secondary, which they could use. But how much do you love Goff long-term? And you never know when you will pick this high again with an improving team. But if you think Richardson’s issues are fixable and he falls to a spot in the draft you are comfortable with, it is really interesting upside at the most important position.
Which brings us back to Hurts and why Howie was smarter than all of us to take him. A 2nd round pick is a cheap pick for an upside QB – a mobile QB that changes how defenses play you – especially if you think they are able to develop. The next best player taken in that draft after Hurts? Jeremy Chinn – a good player but nowhere near the impact a starting QB has.
Allen and Hurts are great examples of QBs developing in the league. And with QBs and teams embracing the great biomechanical work being done, hopefully there will be many more, including Richardson.
WagerWire Report: Risers, Fallers, and Why You Shouldn’t Put Too Much Faith in Mocks Right Now
I got into this conversation a few times recently. It started when I wrote the Devon Witherspoon draft profile and said he should be a round 1 corner. At the time, all the simulators had him with an Average Draft Position (ADP) sometime mid day 2. And heard it again when I said Kelee Ringo wasn’t a top-10 pick.
Most responses I got were in-depth scouting responses or shared previously unknown analytics. Ya know, like “LMAO…” or “You’re blind”.
So many people treat early prospect and simulator rankings as reality and they just aren’t at this point.
How good (or bad) rankings are at this point in the year
I went back and looked at where the prospect rankings were at this point in the year and how much they changed by the time of the draft. And unsurprisingly they change a lot.
Below shows January draft rankings for round 1 prospects and guys that actually landed in the 1st for the 2021 and 2022 drafts. The horizontal axis are the R1 prospects based on their ADP (1-70) and the dots reflect how much they rose (if the dot is above the center line) or fell (below the center line) in the actual draft.
A few takeaways:
The top 10 of the draft is better and has less movement
The top-10 moved on average 12 spots but that is heavily skewed by the QBs falling last year. If you exclude Matt Corral (who fell 80 spots) and Malik Willis (fell 70 spots), the top-10 is pretty solid, averaging moving only 5 spots by the time of the draft.
The only non-QBs in projected to be top-10 that moved at least 10 spots were DeMarvin Leal and George Karlaftis in 2022 and Greg Rousseau in 2021.
Many of the 1st rounders today won’t actually be come April
Over the past two years, a third (20 of 64 picks) fell out of the 1st round between January and the draft, including our own Nakobe Dean. Here’s the list with their January ADP and actual pick location:
The players that took their spot in the 1st weren’t barely outside in January – they moved up a lot
Only two eventual 1st rounders were barely outside the 1st in January – Odafe Oweh and Dax Hill. The rest came from deep in the big boards. In 2022, the 10 players that moved into R1 moved up an average of 46 spots. In 2021, it was 38 spots.
Here’s the list of risers and how many spots they moved up from January:
The premium positions were of course the big risers
Even though rankings already push premium positions up the board, they generally surprise even further.
Wide receiver moves up. A LOT. Of 15 WRs, they average moving up 17 spots vs. their January ADP. Cornerback moves up too, averaging going up 8 spots. And it’s hard to find any WRs or CBs that actually fall – the only ones all had pre-draft injury concerns (Terrace Marshall, Rondale Moore, Caleb Farley, and Andrew Booth were the only ones that fell).
And while they did not quite make it into round 1, two explosive small-school WRs – Christian Watson and Skyy Moore – each rose over 80 spots.
Tackles also rise with only one – Samuel Cosmi in 2021 – falling more than a few spots when he dropped 37 spots into the 2nd. Cosmi was one of “my guys” that year and plenty of teams regret passing over him.
Pass rushers are a bit more interesting as they move both ways. No position has more big risers, with a third of EDGEs rising more than 20 spots. But almost a quarter also fall more than 20 spots, more than any other position except QB last year.
Just remember that a third of the 1st round you see in simulators could be totally wrong. And when a simulator lets you grab Nolan Smith in the 2nd, just know your excitement is going to be short-lived.
Who knows where players will end up, but some that could rise or fall by the time April gets here:
Potential risers:
EDGE Felix Anudike-Uzomah: He is sitting around 40 today and there is zero chance he lasts that long. He is one of 4 prospects with a pass rush win rate above 30% and run stop rate above 10% and will be in the 1st.
OT Anton Harrison: Slotted in the early 2nd, this big and athletic tackle is going to rise especially in a weaker class.
CB Devon Witherspoon: He has already moved up a lot but is still only at pick 32, he will go higher. He’s my CB2 and there’s no way he is lower than CB4. He is solidly in R1.
CB Emmanuel Forbes: Currently 38th, I would have Forbes as CB4 or CB5 which would almost guarantee R1. Really good zone CB, 2nd best rate of getting hands on ball in this class behind Devon.
WR Zay Flowers: Currently at 56 as WR7, I would not be surprised if Zay is one of the WR risers as he is more complete than others ahead of him. Smaller, but in a weaker WR class than past years he brings more than people are giving him credit for currently.
LB Drew Sanders: Everybody, especially us in Philly, assumes LB isn’t a R1 position but every year 2-4 highly athletic LBs that can be used across the field are taken in the 1st. Sanders, currently slotted at 45, is big, athletic, and can both rush and cover. Many are saying this is a weak LB class, I don’t see it.
OT Darnell Wright: He shined vs. Will Anderson and has the size and feet. The only pure RT in this class and will go well above his slot around 80. Can he get all the way to the 1st? Not sure, but there are probably only 2 or 3 OTs I would take over him right now.
Potential drops:
CB Clark Phillips: Risky picking a corner to drop given how heavily they are drafted but every year a CB with a lot of INTs gets pushed up. INTs are not stable metrics and his underlying stats and tape don’t back up his ranking. He gets his hands on the ball (forced incompletion rate which is a better metric) at one of the lowest rates in this class and got torched by USC twice. Currently sitting at 26, I don’t get it at all.
TE Michael Mayer: I am alone on this one and it’s another where I have gotten grief. TEs don’t go in R1 often and is Mayer really a Pitts or even a Hockenson? He is viewed as “good but not great at everything”, but he isn’t a great blocker and do you take “good” or “solid” here?
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba: I hate putting him here as I actually really like him, but he is not explosive and dealt with a hamstring for all of 2022. Currently WR3 in the middle of the 1st, this is one I would love to be wrong on. But I wouldn’t take a non-explosive WR with a season long lingering leg injury here, especially given other options. I’d be shocked if he went R1 honestly.
RB Jahmyr Gibbs: I absolutely love Gibbs who is currently viewed as a R1 lock. But it’s a really good RB class which may cause teams to wait for day 2. And, while it’s a good class there aren’t a lot of bigger backs this year which may have teams look elsewhere. Think he is similar to Travis Etienne and similar sizes, so it isn’t crazy for him to be R1 but I don’t think he is as sure a lock as currently viewed.
Some dark horses:
C John Michael Schmitz: Being from Philly, you have to love centers. It generally isn’t viewed as a R1 position, but only once in the last 5 years was a center not taken – 2021 when OG/OC Landon Dickerson probably would have been taken if he didn’t tear his ACL and Creed Humphrey should have been taken. Centers are more situational with a late R1 team having a need and taking the opportunity to take the best player at their position. Denver is at the end of R1 this year and could use a center…
EDGE Zach Harrison: I think this DL class will be historically drafted and could reach 2019’s 11 taken in the 1st. Could Harrison be this year’s Payton Turner? They are similar size and builds. Harrison is currently 68 and behind rushers like Andre Carter, Isaiah Foskey, and BJ Ojulari. It’s not crazy that a team gets enamored with his 6’6″ 270 lb frame and reaches for him.
NT Keondre Coburn: As most of the league goes to the same two-high defense, there just aren’t enough NTs out there to really run them. Siaki is the one everybody talks about but Keondre might be better. He probably doesn’t go R1, but there’s no way he lasts until his current slot in the 150s.
CB Julius Brents: Currently in the 4th round, he will move up based on size, athleticism, and Tariq Woolen‘s success. I doubt to the 1st, but it will be interesting to see how teams look at him.
WagerWire Report: Arms Races, Trenches, and Investing in the Cap Mocks
So much has been written but I wanted to briefly recognize the Damar Hamlin situation. As a Pitt grad, I’ve always been a fan of his. We all underestimate the danger in this game and prayers are out to him and his family for this horrible injury. If you want to provide some support, please see his Chasing M’s Foundation’s GoFundMe page here https://www.gofundme.com/f/mxksc-the-chasing-ms-foundation-community-toy-drive
I absolutely love doubling up on positions in a draft but just to get it out of the way, these aren’t truly serious mocks where the Eagles would really go all in on a specific position group. But they do give a view on players across the rounds that I think are interesting.
I keep a horizontal draft board more for my own benefit, but if interested it can be found here with notes on the below players and more: Eagles 2023 Draft Board
The Arms Race Mock
Yeah, I know we all want DL but screw it, we will just let them try to outscore us with this mock. No more complaining about the return game or Quez and the RB room is totally re-made.
1-10: WR Quentin Johnston, TCU 1-31: TE Darnell Washington, Georgia Bringing in 6’3″ and 6’7″ pass-catchers. Who do you cover when the Eagles can go empty with A.J., DeVonta, Dallas, Quentin, and Darnell?
2-63 RB Zach Charbonnet, UCLA I’m going to keep going with size with a 6’1″ 220lb back. But Charbonnet is no short-yardage guy… to go with his 4.15 yard after contact average (just behind Bijan’s 4.17), Zach has this class’s best explosive rush rate at 22.6%.
3-95: RB Kenny McIntosh, Georgia Kenny Gainwell may be the only returning back next year so adding another isn’t crazy. Let’s add the best pass-catching back in the draft with a silly 2.33 yards per route run.
7-220: WR Jordan Whittington, Texas Zach Pascal was an underrated signing but is also a free agent. Whittington is a dependable receiver and may be the best blocking WR in this class. His quote: “Your effort without the ball determines how much you love your teammates”
7-251: WR Derius Davis, TCU Bookending the draft with another TCU wideout, Derius is here for returns. He has 6 returns for TDs in his college career on 92 attempts, a higher rate than last year’s Marcus Jones. He has the 4th fastest high school 400m time in the nation and hit 22.7mph this season which would make him the fastest player in the NFL.
TCU WR Derius Davis has unreal acceleration
Look at Quentin Johnston blocking for his teammate.. taking out two defenders 😤pic.twitter.com/H9hvO25i0A
Also known as the Howie mock. None of these mocks are serious but given the potential losses on the DL (Hargrave, Fletch, Barnett, BG) and OL (Dillard, Seumalo), this wouldn’t be (too) crazy.
1-10: EDGE Jared Verse, Florida State 1-31: EDGE Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Kansas State Doubling up in the first to bring in two highly productive EDGEs. The Eagles EDGEs will need to look different in 2023 with Josh Sweat, BG, Robert Quinn, Derek Barnett, and Janarius Robinson on the roster as of today. Both Verse and Felix have true pass set win rates above 32% and two of my favorite EDGEs.
2-63: OT Darnell Wright, Tennessee Time to take our future RT as Darnell is the best pure RT in this class. Wright is big (6’6″, 335) so he meets my “must-be-giant” requirement. And he has good feet. He is moving up boards after shutting down Will Anderson.
3-95: DT Keondre Coburn, Texas I would have like a DT earlier but they went prior to the 10th pick. So many look at Sikai Ika but for me, Keondre is the better prospect. He brings a bit more pass rush ability (23% true pass set win rate)
7-220: OT Kadeem Telfort, UAB Ok now we are talking big. A massive 6’8″ 330lb OT prospect that moves well. In 2021 he looked good against UGA, going against Travon Walker, Nolan Smith, and Adam Anderson. Maybe Stoutland can work magic again or maybe we have a backup.
7-251: DT Jermayne Lole, Louisville Lole is the forgotten man in this draft after missing all of the 2021 season with a tricep injury only to transfer to Louisville and injure his elbow in the opener and miss the rest of 2022. But after his 2020 season at ASU where he had an amazing 15% run stop rate and 24% true pass set win rate, Lole was thought to be a top-50 pick.
The Cap Mock
This is the responsible, look ahead to free up cap space knowing we are extending Jalen to a big deal, and invest in the positions that are really expensive to get in free agency.
1-10: CB Christian Gonzalez, Oregon The Eagles will have the most expensive CB room in the league in 2023 and that is NOT counting Bradberry being re-signed or another CB being added. The Eagles CB room has to get cheaper. It is the 2nd fastest growing position by cost in free agency and is the #1 spot the Eagles need to invest to free up cap.
1-31: EDGE Nolan Smith, Georgia No choice but to go pass rusher here as it is the most expensive position to fill in free agency. Smith will play a Reddick-like role and if you liked Nakobe the person last year, you will love Nolan as well. Come April I doubt he makes it to 31 however.
2-63: WR A.T. Perry, Wake Forest Receiver got really expensive last year thanks to Jacksonville. The Eagles are committed for a while to A.J. and DeVonta but good to invest for the long-term here. A.T. has good size and the 3rd best Y/RR in this class behind Quentin and Addison.
3-95: EDGE Dylan Horton, TCU May be over-fitting this comp, but Horton is going to test like Milton Williams. An ex-safety, he has a supposed 40 in the 4.5s, a 38 inch vertical, and 10 foot broad. 3 tech to outside versatility, the Eagles get a lot cheaper on the DL with Nolan and Dylan.
TCU’s Dylan Horton showing off why he was a member of @BruceFeldmanCFB’s Freaks List with a huge third down sack.
Horton’s blend of explosiveness and power at 275 pounds make him a very intriguing 2023 NFL Draft prospect. pic.twitter.com/kZZ92wLJkr
7-220: OG McClendon Curtis, Chattanooga While not an expensive position in free agency, I’ll go with the odds here with IOL being one of the better positions to hit on late in a draft. And as I said above, am a sucker for giants on the line with Curtis at 6’7″ 340.
7-251: CB Eric Garror, Louisiana Howie likes taking shots at CB and here is an under-the-radar, undersized but athletic slot corner that brings great kick return value as well.
