The Outlier; How the Eagles Built Their Super Bowl team

Eagles with Lombardi trophy

Sorry recent Giant playoff loser Julian Love, the Eagles built a fantastic coaching staff who cultivated a winning atmosphere by motivating and getting the most from their veterans while also developing the younger talent.

And an emphatic NO, Jerry Jones.

The Eagles didn’t mortgage the future to get here either.

They didn’t overpay for free agents or any of the players they traded for.

They also didn’t spend the most money on Free Agency.

They did identify the best fit for their roster and get the best pass rusher on the market to help a team that finished 31st in sacks a year before, with a meager 29.

They maximized every dollar and roster spot to absolute perfection.

Howie selected players who not only fit in physically and schematically with what the team wanted to do, but also with players who had exuded certain traits and qualities that displayed the strong character of a team he wanted to build upon.

Timeline:

Jan 16th, 2022 the Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat the Eagles in a blowout Wild Card win. This would prove to be the last playoff victory in Tom Brady’s storied career, and a critical learning moment for Hurts, Smith, and the rest of the young Eagles core. The passing of the torch?

Jan 17th, 2022. The next day Eagles GM Howie Roseman begins preparations to identify players who the team should target in free agency, and also which players the team needed to move on from to get back to a Super Bowl.

Draft

April 28th, 2022. Opening night, NFL Draft.

It had become obvious to management that despite using a first-round pick on Jalen Reagor two years earlier, he was not going to be one of the WRs to grow with Hurts and DeVonta. As they did with Carson Wentz the season before, they cut bait and looked to find a replacement.

Wide receivers started moving off the board prior to the Eagles’ selection, something Howie had anticipated, so he chose to react with a plan he had hatched weeks earlier.

They dealt one of their three 1st-round-picks and a 3rd-rounder to the Titans for wide receiver extraordinaire, A.J. Brown.

Unlike years earlier when the Eagles made a similar splash by acquiring one of the best wideouts in the league, Terrell Owens, this would prove to be the anti-T.O. McNabb controversy. QB Jalen Hurts and AJ are best friends. Thus far, the results speak for themselves.

Next, the Birds wanted to add a defensive lineman to help a leaky run defense.

Please welcome one of the best DTs in the draft who was fresh off posting a stunning 4.78 40-yard dash at 341 pounds on Day 3 of the NFL Combine.

Once again Howie and the Eagles move swiftly and decisively by trading picks 15, 124, 162, and 166 to the Texans for pick 13 to select one of the Georgia Bulldogs National Championship standouts, Jordan Davis.

With the draft in the rear view and the team still in need of a cornerback, Howie once again assuages all fear by addressing any perceived weaknesses with the team, via free agency.

Free Agents and Trades

March 14th, 2022. Pi~day. The Eagles agree to sign former Temple standout, Haason Reddick to a three-year, $45 million contract. His in-season 16 sacks, 4 forced fumbles, and 49 tackles should have had him in the discussion for defensive player of the year. It’s a crime he wasn’t nominated. He will probably feel vindicated with a Super Bowl win but it was still an injustice. His play in the post-season has been next level with 3.5 more sacks, 10 tackles, and another forced fumble in two games.

March 26th, 2022. The Birds sign linebacker Kyzir White. His contributions include 110 tackles and 1.5 sacks. Not too shabby for a $3 million dollar one-year investment.

On May 18th, 2022, the Eagles signed the recently released NY Giant castaway, James Bradberry, to a one year $7.25 million deal. The availability of Bradberry is a shock to most, and he helped bolster the pass defense, which ranks first in the NFL.

Aug 30, 2022. One of Howie’s favorite trading partners, the New Orleans Saints, make a safety the Eagles would really like to add available.

CJGJ come on down.

The Birds trade future 5th and 6th rd picks to New Orleans for Chauncey Gardner-Johnson. A safety of his magnitude was one of the pieces missing for defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon to implement the scheme he wanted to instill. Despite missing 5 games, CJGJ lad the NFL in interceptions with 7.

With the heavy lifting of the pre-season done, Howie and the Eagles would not sit on their hands during the season. When a need arose or talent presented itself, the Birds, once again, made waves.

Need one would be a kicker. Jake Elliot injured his ankle in late September so the Birds searched for a kicker.

On October 4th, 2022, the Eagles sign Cameron Dicker.

The legend of Dicker the Kicker was 5 days away.

The signing proved to be brilliant, as he made 2 field goals in his debut, including a game-winning kick in the final 2 minutes.

Dicker was named special teams player of the week.

That would be the only game he appeared in with the Eagles. Once Jake Elliot returned to health he was released. But the Birds seemingly had unearthed a diamond in the rough. Cameron now plays for the LA Chargers and won another ST player of the week award.

On October 26, 2022, the Bears made DE Robert Quinn available, and the Eagles moved a future pick to add another player to their roster who could pressure the QB, despite leading the league in sacks.

November 2nd, 2022 The Eagles place rookie Jordan Davis on on IR due to an injury sustained in week 8 versus the Steelers. The reports indicate that Jordan would need a month or more to heal.

So Philadelphia signs not one, but two DTs, to help fill the void.

Lyndal Joseph is signed 11–16–22.

Ndamukong Suh a day later on 11–17–22.

Both players have been huge additions literally and figuratively.

Quick Hits, by the numbers:

The Draft:

The GM’s job is to identify workers who fit into what they are doing and have the same desires. Successful draft picks not only have the physical attributes and talent, but also the mental. Forfeiting one for the other usually leads to failure.

A GM, and the team, also have to be mindful of projecting the likely future health of their players.

Drafting positions that have a history of longevity is a strategy they have employed. Football is a violent sport and the length of a positional career needs to have an emphasis.

Positional career length from shortest to longest

Running backs – 2.57

Wide Receivers – 2.81

Tight Ends – 2.85

Cornerbacks – 2.94

Linebackers – 2.97

D Line – 3.24

O Line – 3.63

QB – 4.44

Do you see the direct correlation between the positions Howie drafts in the first round and the likelihood they will be able to provide many years of play?

Outside of the recent WR acquisitions, he has stayed pretty true to who has the longest career when using the teams’ high-round picks.

This seems to prove that building via the trenches is not only a sound strategy for the field but also gives a team the biggest bang for their (draft capital) buck.

Outside of the all-important QB position, of course.

For those interested in the special teams’ longevity or players’ overall average, see below.

  • Kickers/Punters — 4.87
  • League average — 3.3

Defensive Rankings for SB winners:

Defense does still win Championships.

Big Ben won 2 SBs def ranked 1 and 4

Rodgers 1 SB def ranked 2

Wilson 1 SB def ranked 1

Foles/Wentz 1 SB def ranked 4

Even the great Tom Brady 7 SB def ranked; 6, 1, 2, 8, 1, 7, 1

Over the last 45 years, the #1 ranked defense has won 28.57 of SB

Over the last 45 years, the #1 ranked offense has won 20.41 of SB

An odd Outlier that can dictate a successful season vs a bad one:

The further a road team travels, the less likely their % of winning.

2000 miles or more 39.8% chance of winning

1000–1999 40.3%

0–999 43%

The Eagles did not have too many long flights this year. In fact, their last flight, prior to traveling to Arizona, was all the way back when they played at Dallas on Christmas Eve.

While not a huge difference, every advantage counts. Even a 4% increase is gladly accepted.

Quarterbacks:

Having a younger QB on the team is another advantage because young QBs win more Super Bowls than older ones.

When omitting the unicorn that is Brady, only five Quarterbacks aged 35 and older have won the Super Bowl.

That means, historically, you have a 9% chance to win the SB with a QB over 35.

Aaron Rodgers hasn’t done it. Montana didn’t, Bradshaw didn’t, Aikman didn’t, and they are all HOF QBs that were the best of their era.

For teams who have acquired veteran QBs to lead their team in search of SB glory, like the Broncos this season, most fail and find themselves losing for many more years.

Sadly, it’s kind of like buying a boat. The two greatest days are the one you get it, and the day you get rid of it. Most Broncos fans would love to get rid of Wilson.

So, younger is better. And a QB on a rookie deal is best. It just leaves so much money to be able to bolster other areas. Something the Eagles did well in 2017 when they won the SB and again this year to be playing in another.

The Results:

The Eagles have been in the playoffs 5 times in the last 6 seasons.

They’re essentially on TV participating in playoff games more than Leave it to Beaver re-reruns.

If you don’t understand that reference, congratulations.

You’re probably young and in your prime.

Super Bowl 57:

The Eagles will be playing familiar friend, and current foe, Andy Reid and his Kansas City Chiefs.

The foundation is in place for the Eagles to stay competitive for many more years, but Super Bowls are hard to get to even when you have done everything right.

As you have read, it takes a great game plan, health, fewer air miles, a decisive off-season strategy, ownership who sign off on everything, and the players bonding together to do something special.

It’s been said that the Eagles are the outlier.

They’re lucky. That their way is not how you build a winning team.

Well, I think it is time to admit that simply isn’t true.

In their two playoff games, they have outscored the opponents 69–14. While KC will be the toughest opponent they have faced, I expect them to make the most of this opportunity.

I am looking forward to you all giving the city workers some overtime money to grease those poles!

And for another enjoyable parade down Broad street!

Go Birds!

As always, Thank You for reading!!!

David

Follow me @PHLEagleNews

Follow us @PhillyCvrCorner @greghartpa ;

Visit us at www.Phillycovercorner.com

2/8/2023