Eagles

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The Evolution of the Philadelphia Eagles (and the NFL)1st-Round Draft Picks
Date: 04/06/23
Since the Eagle's very first draft in 1936, 51 picks have been used for the offense and a lowly 24 on defense.  Read more
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First Round Draft Success Rates: Who Could be Risky in the 2023 Draft?
Date: 04/04/23
Every year, around a third of the 1st round draft picks don't live up to expectations. It could be due to injury, poor usage, or just performance. There are misses in this year's class - who could they be and how to think about risk? Read more
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My Perfect Draft Weekend: An Offensive Cheat Code, Dallas Drama, and My Guys
Date: 03/30/23
Everybody is done with mocks, so I wanted to look at what would absolutely make the draft for me - sniping Dallas for an offensive cheat code, give me my finger-wagging corner, and more on what would make the weekend. Read more
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NFL 2023 NFL Top 75 Draft Prospects
Date: 03/28/23
Who are your favorite prospects this year? Read more
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2023 Philadelphia Eagles Mock Draft, with Gifs, Analysis, and Other Superficial Things
Date: 03/23/23
The Eagles are a team with Super Bowl aspirations, so I needed a draft with a blend of talent for today, promise for tomorrow, and players who have the potential to be a (star)ters in the future. Read more
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Why Our Mock Drafts Miss So Often - Howie's History on Positional Value and Investing Ahead of Needs
Date: 03/19/23
Consensus mocks for the Eagles are rarely right and we swing our picks based on every move in free agency. But Howie doesn't draft for today's needs and looking out a year or two gives better insight to what he is likely to prioritize. Read more
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2023 Top 5 NFL Draft Prospects At Each Position
Date: 03/18/23
The best of the best at each position heading into the 2023 NFL Draft Read more
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The 2023 Punter Mock Draft: Who Needs One, Who Gets Drafted
Date: 03/14/23
If you aren't happy with your team's punter, it's time to draft one! A look at which teams could use a punter, where they may get drafted, and finishing with a punter-only mock draft. Read more
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2023 Philadelphia Eagles Free Agent Wish List
Date: 03/12/23
The Eagles may not be as active in the free agency market as in past years as they play the compensatory pick game knowing they could net 4 picks in the 2024 draft valued in the 3rd and 4th round range. Read more
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What We Know About Draft Success: Big Board Chalk, Reaching, and Trading Down
Date: 03/08/23
The draft is hard, and few GMs if any teams can maintain ongoing success. But there has been a lot of great analysis of what improves your odds. A look into this, what the best move for the Eagles could be, and your chance to vote. Read more
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We Gave Sean Desai His Guys, Now an Eagles All-Offense Mock for Brian Johnson
Date: 03/05/23
I's new offensive coordinator Brian Johnson's turn with an all-offense mock. A look at what may be different, why I'm taking a pass-catching RB, and going after some mismatch nightmares. Read more
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An Eagles All-Defense Mock Draft to Make Sean Desai Happy
Date: 03/03/23
A look at what may change under Sean Desai, what type of players he may want, and an all-defense mock for Sean. Read more
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2023 NFL Draft: Ranking the top 10 cornerback prospects
Date: 03/02/23
Subtle is not a word I would use to describe him, he chooses violence in every play.  Read more
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Will the Eagles Actually, Finally Draft a Cornerback? Inside the Mind of Howie Roseman
Date: 02/26/23
Looking at history, the question on if Howie will take a corner high in the draft is more complicated than most think. A dive into his history in the draft, in free agency and trades, and what it could mean for 2023 and forward. Read more
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Half of the Draft's 1st Round is Wrong Every Year
Date: 02/20/23
Maybe dig a little deeper down the big board. Trust the players you like. And ignore your mock draft haters. Every year, about half of the players taken in the first two rounds aren't top value players. A look at where the value comes from. Read more

The Evolution of the Philadelphia Eagles (and the NFL)1st-Round Draft Picks

Since the Eagle’s very first draft in 1936, they have had 75 first-round picks.

There were a few positions that have had a surprisingly low amount of first-round resources used on them and the picks also show how the game has evolved and how very different it was played 40 years earlier.

The following is how each position has been invested in.

QB 5

#5 will always love you

One would have thought a lot more had been selected over 87 years and 75 1st round picks, but alas, it was not meant to be.

Carson Wentz, Donovan McNabb, John Reaves, Frank Tripucka and Davey O’Brien are the only 5.

Interestingly, #5 Donovan McNabb, is without question, the best 1st round QB they have ever drafted.

RB/FB 22

The last one, Keith Byars, was drafted way back in 1986.

The Peak?

18 of their first 25 1st rd picks were RB/HB/FB

An incredible indicator of how different the game was once played.

WR 7

The polar opposite of the RB position was the way receivers were valued in the early years of the NFL.

Exactly zero wideouts were selected in the first round prior to 1982.

Mike Quick was the first.

They have drafted 5 first-round WRs since 2001.

(and used a 1st rd pick to acquire another, A.J. Brown in 2022)

TE 2

Keith Jackson in 1988 and Charlie Young way back in 1973.

They have had recent success drafting them in round two, with Ertz and Goedert.

OL 15

This is another position where I would have thought a lot more than 15 had been drafted in the 75 years history of round-one picks.

Fun fact:

Only one has been a center, HOF Chuck Bednarik in 1949.

DL 13

Brandon Graham is the best Edge the Eagles have drafted in the first round, in my lifetime.

Fletcher Cox and Jerome Brown, the best DTs.

The Great Jerome Brown

LB 6

#56, Jerry Robinson

The last LB drafted in round one by the Eagles was Jerry Robinson in 1979.

DB 5

The last corner drafted in round one was in 2002, that honor belongs to the great Lito Sheppard.

No safety has been drafted in round one.

Only 3 were drafted to play CB as their only pos.

The other 2 were drafted for double duty, like 1958 first-round pick Walter Joseph Kowalczyk who was drafted as a defensive back and, you guessed it, an RB/HB/FB.

Since they were the only other (2) I could find that had DB next to their name when drafted, I added them to the DB list.

Excluding them you would only have Lito in 2002, Ben Smith in 1990, and Roynell Young, in 1980.

Quick Hits:

51 picks have been used for offense and a lowly 24 on defense.

That is incredible to me.

If the defense wins championships, the offense wins the usage of resources.

The Picks:

Top pick — 3 times

Top 2 pick — 9 times

Top 5 pick — 21 times

Top 10 pick — 42 times

Top 15 pick — 55 times

Top 20 pick — 61 times

Drafted outside the Top 20–14 times

NFL 2023 NFL Top 75 Draft Prospects

As Always, Thank You for reading!

Follow me @PHLEagleNews

Follow us @PhillyCvrCorner

Follow Greg @GregHartPA

David

4/6/23

First Round Draft Success Rates: Who Could be Risky in the 2023 Draft?

This time of year, there is a lot of love for all of our guys. But as I’ve written before, a large percentage of the 1st round misses every year. Sometimes it’s out of their control with injuries or they are mis-used by their team. Maybe they were a projection that just didn’t develop. Some may have been older prospects that only succeeded because they were playing 18-19 year olds. And maybe they had risks ahead of the draft that were ignored.

Who could be misses this year and how should we think about risk – age, fit, projection, or other – with this year’s top-rated prospects?

How many 1st rounders are misses?

The charts below show the number of draft misses for the entire 1st round and top 10 picks (“misses” defined as a below 60th percentile player which is typically a top 55-65 player in the draft). The 1st round averages just over 11 misses and even 2018, the best year, had 8 misses.

Round 1 draft hits rates
Top 10 draft pick hit rates

And bad news for the Eagles, the hit rate isn’t much better at the top of the draft, averaging 2.6 top-10 picks being misses. 2013, the year the Eagles drafted Lane Johnson, was an especially bad year with only 3 good players taken and skews this a bit. But even with the past few years being good years, there are still 1-2 players in the top 10 that are misses every year.

Which positions have historically been the most difficult to hit on?

All positions aren’t created equally with cornerback at a 64% miss rate far and away being the position with the highest bust rate, followed by safety, pass rusher, and receiver. These, with the exception of safety, are also the most heavily drafted positions every year.

Interestingly, the less valued positions like TE, RB, and LB have better hit rates which is primarily because of how lightly they are drafted – if only 1 or 2 of a position is being taken in the 1st, you are drafting the top guys at that position instead of grabbing the 4th or 5th corner or receiver.

The misses are there this year… who could they be?

Below are the current projected 1st rounders using Grinding the Mocks and NFL Mock Draft Database rankings, which will be as accurate as they can be this close to the draft.

Top 32 prospects in 2023 draft
Top 32 prospects using Grinding the Mocks and
NFL Mock Draft Database rankings as of 4/3/23

Unless this is an all-time historically great class, there are 10-12 guys on this list that will be misses. Nobody knows who they will be and often misses are out of anybody’s control. But I’ll take my shot with reasoning and what we know about draft success.

If you are still reading, this is going to be the section that you likely hate. Heck, I hate it myself for putting a couple of names on the list below.

CB has the highest miss rate so I’ll start here:
Given the history with CBs, you could pick anybody here and do well with the odds.

  • Kelee Ringo – An elite athlete straight-line, could his change of direction issues be a fatal flaw that is exposed by NFL receivers?
  • Joey Porter Jr – Sure to anger a ton of people as we have a lot of PSU fans and there is a lot to like, but history isn’t great on 23 year olds at skill positions and in a world of more zone coverage, does he get asked to do what he isn’t great at?
  • Cam Smith – Flashes the skills needed and has the mentality you want in a corner. But while he hasn’t missed much playing time, he has dealt with head injuries / concussions and a hamstring.

QBs are always good to pick as misses:
With QBs, you would be right more often than not just putting them all on a potential bust list.

  • Will Levis – Not a controversial add here at all, he reminds me way too much of Carson Wentz with his pocket awareness and turnovers.
  • Anthony Richardson – There is all the reason in the world to put AR on the list but I actually like him. He does some of the same very fixable things that cause accuracy issues and his mobility provides a really good value floor for teams. He’s a risk as every QB is but I would take the risk at the right pick.

On to defensive line:

  • Bryan Bresee – Love the guy, I was just never wowed watching him. And a lot of misses are injury related and he has missed a lot of time.
  • Myles Murphy – A guy I have never gotten they hype on, one of the lowest pressure rates, hasn’t tested, think there is quite a bit of risk here.
  • Tyree Wilson – I absolutely LOVE Tyree, think he could be a menace in the NFL, and would draft him because of this upside. But there is risk here – he will be 23, was late breakout, and while extremely powerful, he lacks explosiveness.

Wide receivers:
Receiver is tough because when you look at past misses, there was usually some other reason (injuries, off-the-field, etc.).

  • Quentin Johnston – People I respect have him as a likely bust but I am higher on him. He does disappear in games, but his agility for his size is crazy. I’d still take him but definitely a guy with a wider range of outcomes.
  • Jordan Addison – Comped to DeVonta Smith (which I don’t see at all) and viewed as a low risk pick, but could physical, press coverage that frustrated him in college become a bigger issue in the NFL?
  • Zay Flowers – I love Zay and with Tyree, another guy I would love to draft. But he will be 23 years old at the start of the season, is undersized, and has one of the lowest rates of NFL route usage (which is more correlated to NFL success than route diversity).

Tight ends:
TEs in the first round at all are rare and this year we have two projected, and it wouldn’t surprise many if a third went. I’ve probably pissed everybody off at this point, here’s where I anger my partner @PHLEagleNews:

  • Dalton Kincaid – Kincaid is already 23, is really intriguing receiving but not sure he will survive inline which limits his usage. Daniel Kelly comps him to Dalton Schultz, a 4th rounder and 50th percentile player, which I think is a good comp.

Offensive line looks good:
I’m not picking anybody here. First, OL is one of the safest positions to draft and misses are usually injury related. Second, I like everybody on this list. There are some I wouldn’t take in the 1st but that is very different from being a miss. But if I had to pick here, it would be around playing one of these guys at the wrong position:

  • Peter Skoronski – I am definitely in the “he’s a guard” camp – if that is correct, what if the drafting team leaves him at OT like a Teven Jenkins and he just doesn’t succeed there?
  • Playing somebody out of position – What if somebody moves Anton to RT or Darnell Wright to LT and they struggle? I like these guys in the 1st but teams could mis-use them.

I’m not saying any or all of these names will be misses – several will be amazing pros. It’s just important to remember why players do miss and that some have a wider range of outcomes. Anthony Richardson could be so good or an absolute miss… teams know that and one of them will take a shot. Quentin Johnston and Tyree Wilson also fall into that category in my opinion.

I was writing this and coincidentally this tweet from @PickettsWrld (a great Steelers and draft account and overall good guy to follow) popped up which we all have to remember:

Just based on history, no matter how well teams scout, the misses are out there this year.

Thanks for reading and if you aren’t already, please follow us at @PhillyCvrCorner, @PhillyEagleNews, and @GregHartPA

My Perfect Draft Weekend: An Offensive Cheat Code, Dallas Drama, and My Guys

Mocks have been done to death so I won’t put you through another. Instead, here is what would make my draft weekend.

Eagles trade one spot ahead of Dallas to take TE Darnell Washington

(And bonus for David Akers coming out again to announce the pick)

Dallas is absolutely going to look for a top tight end in this draft, I think likely with their pick in the 1st. Darnell has been one of “my guys” all along and I don’t want the Eagles to take him to spite Dallas, but because it is a brilliant pick.

Howie has prided himself on staying ahead of trends and no prospect – not a top receiver, not a running back, nobody – could as uniquely impact the offense as much as Darnell. Here’s why:

A real, two pass-catcher 12 personnel could be the biggest advantage that teams use against today’s two-high defenses:

  • After years of declining 12 personnel usage, innovative teams like the Chiefs and Eagles are increasing use of 12 personnel as a response to light boxes
  • 12 personnel forces modern defenses into a bad decision, dramatically raising heavy box rates from 19% to 72% of snaps as they have both an extra gap and receiver to cover
  • Passing against heavy boxes is 60% more efficient, generating an EPA/pass of 0.19 vs. 0.12 against light boxes
  • Passing out of 12 is dramatically more efficient, generating 0.15 EPA/play vs. 0.03 from 11 personnel league-wide

David and I have been (half) joking about #superoffense mock drafts for weeks where the Eagles strengthen the offense this year – and this does this more than just what a single player could do.

Some will say why use a high pick on a player that will rarely get on the field, but the Eagles secondary TEs have averaged slightly more snaps than their WR3 over the past 5 years. And a WR3 won’t force the defense to change structurally. @TheHonestNFL posted on this value:

If we aren’t taking Gonzalez, give me the best mid-round, finger-wagging, physical corner

Rejzohn Wright finger wag

Howie is likely not in the market for Gonzalez or Devon at 10 and after signing both Slay and Bradberry, most have moved on from corner as a need. But nobody has drafted or signed more corners the past several years than Howie and there is still room on this roster for somebody that does what Desai wants.

And Oregon State’s Rejzohn Wright is my guy.

Desai wants more physical corners that will disrupt routes? Check. A good zone corner that showed he can smother top receivers? Check. The unteachable finger-wagging confidence? Check.

  • Long and good athlete at 6’2″, 200 lbs
  • Physical and disruptive that frustrates receivers – Jordan Addison had his worst game of the year against Rejzohn where he allowed 1 catch on 2 targets for 4 yards
  • Excels in zone coverage where he has the play in front of him

I love corners and love how cocky they can be – it is the toughest position to play (besides QB) and you have to play that way. Eric Crocker, former NFL and AFL CB that played for the Jets, said Rejzohn may talk more trash than he did.

Howie, you don’t have to take Gonzalez or Devon, but bring me Rejzohn.

I’m not asking for much, just pick up a punter

Michigan's Brad Robbins

I will go to my grave saying it is worth a pick to take a punter but like a top corner, I know that Howie won’t do it. But he can still bring a punter in and has to.

The Eagles ultimately lost the Super Bowl because they couldn’t stop Mahomes and the Chiefs offense, but there are a handful of plays that if they went a different way, could have still tilted the game their way. Siposs’ punt is one of them.

At least two of the top three punters – Michael Turk, Bryce Baringer, and Brad Robbins – will be drafted meaning there are still going to be good options as UDFAs. Howie, bring in somebody:

  • If Brad Robbins somehow doesn’t get drafted, he needs to be the first call made in the UDFA period
  • Ethan Evans, the DII diamond-in-the-rough with a big leg
  • Issac Power, who had a really down year in 2022 but if that was largely due to the Vapor Elite balls, Power could be the steal of the draft
  • Adam Korsak I was not high on as he doesn’t have a pro hangtime, but if the Eagles continue to largely punt from short-fields, he would be a fit

And finally, just give me somebody from my “my guys” list

I haven’t formally done a “my guys” list so will do it here. Last year I had to watch as Baltimore took three guys from my list and hope Howie throws me a bone this year:

  • QB – nobody, I hate watching and scouting QBs
  • WR – Marvin Mims
  • TE – Darnell Washington
  • OL – O’Cyrus Torrence, Darnell Wright, Kadeem Telfort
  • RB – Tank Bigsby
  • DT – Keeanu Benton, Gervon Dexter
  • EDGE – Nolan Smith, Felix Anudike-Uzomah
  • LB – Dorian Williams, SirVocea Dennis
  • SAF – Chris Smith
  • CB – Gonzalez (my impractical one), Rejzohn Wright
  • P – Michael Turk

Thanks for reading and if you aren’t already, please follow us at @PhillyCvrCorner, @PhillyEagleNews, and @GregHartPA

NFL 2023 NFL Top 75 Draft Prospects

Photo Credit SN Illustration

The Big Board:

1- IDL Jalen Carter

2- Edge Nolan Smith

3- Edge Willie Anderson Jr

4- Edge Tyree Wilson

5- QB Bryce Young

6- CB Christian Gonzalez

7- OT Darnell Wright

8- QB CJ Stroud

9- CB Devon Witherspoon

10- RB Bijan Robinson

11- WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba

12- OT Broderick Jones

13- WR Zay Flowers

14- QB Anthony Richardson

15- Edge Lukas Van Ness

16-OT Paris Johnson Jr

17- IDL Calijah Kancey

18- Edge Will McDonald IV

19- CB Emmanuel Forbes

20- Edge Myles Murphy

21- S Brian Branch

22- OT Anton Harrison

23- OT Peter Skoronski

24- Edge Felix Anudike-Uzomah

25- TE Dalton Kincaid

26- TE Darnell Washington

27- OT Dawand Jones

28- CB Deonte Banks

29- RB Jahmyr Gibbs

30- CB Cam Smith

31- Edge Adetomiwa Adebawore

32- Edge Keion White

33- WR Quentin Johnston

34- CB Joey Porter Jr

35- IDL Bryan Breese

36- TE Michael Mayer

37- WR Jordan Addison

38- WR Jalin Hyatt

39- Edge BJ Ojulari

40- OT Cody Mauch

41- IDL Gervon Dexter

42- IOL Steve Avila

43- IOL O’Cyrus Torrence

44- WR Marvin Mims

45- Edge Tuli Tuipulotu

46- CB Tyrique Stevenson

47- RB Zach Charbonnet

48- WR Josh Downs

49- S Antonio Johnson

50- IOL Joe Tippmann

51- QB Will Levis

52-TE Sam LaPorta

53- QB Hendon Hooker

54- LB Trenton Simpson

55- Edge Isaiah Foskey

56- Edge Andre Carter II

57- S Sydney Brown

58- IDL Keeanu Benton

59- Edge Nick Herbig

60- IDL Mazi Smith 

61- TE Luke Musgrave

62- LB Jack Campbell

63- IOL John Michael Schmitz

64- IOL Luke Wypler

65- IDL Siaki Ika

66- OT Matthew Bergeron

67- CB Julius Brents

68- CB Kelee Ringo 

69- RB Tank Bigsby

70- Edge Derick Hall

71- LB Drew Sanders 

72- CB Garret Williams

73- RB Devon Achane

74- WR Jonathan Mingo

75- LB Daiyan Henley

By Position:

Offense- 35

Quarterback: (5)

Bryce Young

CJ Stroud

Anthony Richards

Will Levis

Hendon Hooker

Running Back: (5)

Bijan Robinson

Jahmyr Gibbs

Zach Charbonett

Tank Bigsby

Devon Achane

Wide Receiver: (8)

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Zay Flowers

Quentin Johnston

Jordan Addison

Jalin Hyatt

Marvin Mims

Josh Downs

Jonathan Mingo

Tight End: (5)

Dalton Kincaid

Darnell Washington

Michael Mayer

Sam LaPorta

Luke Musgrave

OT: (8)

Darnell Wright

Broderick Jones

Paris Johnson Jr

Anton Harrison

Peter Skoronski

Dawand Jones

Cody Mauch

Matthew Bergeron

IOL (C and G): (5)

O’Cyrus Torrence

Joe Tippmann

Steve Avila

John Michael Schmitz

Luke Wypler

Defense 40

Edge: (15)

Nolan Smith

Willie Anderson

Tyree Wilson

Lukas Van Ness

Will McDonald IV

Myles Murphy

Felix Anudike-Uzomah

Adetomiwa Adebawore

Keion White

BJ Ojulari

Tuli Tuipulotu

Isaiah Foskey

Andre Carter II

Nate Herbig

Derick Hall

IDL: (7)

Jalen Carter

Calijah Kancey

Bryan Breese

Gervon Dexter

Keeanu Benton

Mazi Smith 

Siaki Ika

Linebacker: (4)

Trenton Simpson

Jack Campbell

Drew Sanders

Daiyan Henley

Safety: (3)

Brian Branch

Antonio Johnson

Sydney Brown

Cornerback: (10)

Christian Gonzalez

Devon Witherspoon

Deonte Banks

Emmanuel Forbes

Cam Smith

Joey Porter Jr

Tyrique Stevenson

Kelee Ringo

Julius Brents

Garret Williams

What up “My Guys”

20 (unranked) Outside of the top 75:

(76–250 range)

S Jammie Robinson

S Chris Smith II

CB Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson

Edge YaYa Diaby

Edge Viliami Fehoko

Edge Zach Harrison

IDL Jaquelin Roy

IDL Zacch Pickens 

DL Moro Ojomo

LB Noah Sewell

LB Henry To’oTo’o

LB Dorian Williams 

QB DTR

QB Jaren Hall

WR Tyler Scott

WR Tank Dell

TE Zack Kuntz

OT Tyler Steen

OT Jaxson Kirkland

OL McClendon Curtis

As Always, Thank You for reading!

David

Follow me @PHLEagleNews

Follow us @PhillyCvrCorner

Follow Greg @GregHartPA

3/28/23

2023 Philadelphia Eagles Mock Draft, with Gifs, Analysis, and Other Superficial Things

ATHENS, GA - OCTOBER 16: Nolan Smith #4 of the Georgia Bulldogs reacts after a play which was ruled down in the first half against the Kentucky Wildcats at Sanford Stadium on October 16, 2021 in Athens, Georgia. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)

The 7 Draft Picks:

Behold the mastery.

I know you have looked at it twice and wondered how it all came together.

Well, I made as many deals as trader Howie, that’s how.

The Eagles are a team with Super Bowl aspirations, so I needed a draft with a blend of talent for today, promise for tomorrow, and players who have the potential to be a (star)ters in the future. After reading, you be the judge and let me know if I accomplished that.

The Players:

RD1 15- Calijah Kancey

Some are worried about his arm length, others his weight, but nobody questions the explosive first step and interior pressure he has brought.

The Skills:

The First Step:

The Comparison:

Nobody should get ahead of themselves with expectations of the next Aaron Donald, and it is unfair to Calijah to make such a leap, but the ability and skill level are eye-opening to projecting the potential he has, and the player he can be.

Why He Makes Sense:

The Eagles value the lines more than any other team in the league, they are also not averse to drafting a player based on their athleticism.

They have a need for an interior defensive lineman, and he is one of the best in this draft. The best player available meets needs, which equals a beautiful marriage.

RD1 24- Nolan Smith

First off, if you weren’t impressed by just watching his games, well, that all changed at the combine.

He opened everyone’s eyes.

When Howie covets a player in the first round, he has not been afraid to move up and get him.

And it just so happens, Defensive End is a position Howie and the Eagles covet. Smith is a player that seems tailor-made to pique their interest and a talent they would be willing to move up for.

Some believe Nolan will go top 10, others do not believe he is worthy of being a first-rounder. But if Howie can secure the 2nd best edge rusher in the draft with a small move up from 30, you better believe he’s going to do it.

The Ability:

The Playmaking:

The Leader:

How he stacks up against others in the class:

Why He Makes Sense:

Much like Calijah, the Eagles not only aren’t afraid to gamble on athleticism, they seemingly prefer it. He is one of the most athletic edge rushers in recent memory.

The Eagles have also had an up-close look at a player with a similar skill set for the past year.

Nolan and Reddick coming of the edge is a nightmare for any defensive coordinator.

In addition, Smith is a champion and would join former Georgia Champions on the Eagles which should make his transition to the NFL easier and faster. Not that he is going to need any assistance terrorizing offenses for the next 5-10 years.

RD2 45- Cody Mauch

PFF grades drafting Mauch at 45 with an F, but I think it’s an A+.

I love him, Stoutland loves him, and you are going to love him.

Cody can play every position on the line, which is a very valuable asset, and in this draft, he is the most versatile OL.

Mauch has the feet and agility to be your RG, your RT, or anything else you need him to be.

He plays with an explosive physicality and violence that is rare in today’s game.

The Nickname:

The Talent, and uh, Hair:

The Praise:

Why He Makes Sense:

The Eagle’s preferences are beginning to sound like a broken record, but that does not make them any less true.

They have enjoyed having one of the best o-lines in football since line Coach Jeff Stoutland arrived in 2013.

They have had consistency, while also dominating at the position.

Mauch has the ability to play any position on the line, so he would first serve as an insurance policy while being coached up for the eventual replacement at guard or tackle.

Stoutland has indicated that he likes Cody, and much like last year when he (and Kelce) had their draft crush on Cam Jurgens, Stout gets what Stout wants.

What GM wouldn’t want to keep cultivating the talent that the OL has provided?

This selection would seem to be a no brainer.

Whatever position he eventually settles into, he will be playing on the line and the team for a long while!

RD2 55- Sydney Brown

I wanted both Devon Witherspoon and Sydney from Illinois, but I’m thrilled to draft one.

After the CJGJ negotiations broke down, Howie pivots to find a replacement in the draft.

Right?

But who can make an impact versus the run and have the ability to create turnovers as well?

Meet Sydney Brown.

In coverage:

Vs Run:

The Blitz:

Why He Makes Sense:

Sydney displays above-average range, and closing speed while possessing reliable hands to create turnovers and make game-changing plays.

Not only is he one of the best players available in the draft at this spot, but he also serves a need and could provide immediate impact for their defense.

Brown looks ready to see the field sooner rather than later.

RD3 65- Marvin Mims

Call me crazy, but I think the Eagles will draft a wideout on day one or two. I would truly consider Njigba at 10, but that’s a discussion for another day. I can’t take the abuse, see #SuperOffense post below. Yes, it was a joke. Kinda. I guess.

Back to Marvin Mims.

Maybe 65th overall is a little early, but I was tired of doing trades and I did not want to lose him. Zay Flowers went 30 picks higher, and Mims could be just as productive.

Mims has excellent hands, elite speed, and elite body control, while he racks up the YAC.

The BIG play ability:

The Self Awareness & Body Control:

As an added bonus, he can also return punts. He did not return enough in 2022 to be qualified statistically, but if he had returned enough to qualify, Marvin would have led the Big 12 in return yards per punt with 15.2.

Why He Makes Sense:

He brings a big play dynamic to the offense while also providing to be an insurance policy if AJ or DeVonta were to go down injured.

We have seen what the team looks like without any elite receivers, with only one, and this past season, with 2.

I prefer 2.

Marvin assuages my fears in that regard.

As mentioned above, Mims is a duel threat who can also return punts.

He is an exciting player to watch whenever the ball is in his hand!

RD4 121- Tre’Vius Hodges- Tomlinson

The Eagles have been stockpiling late-round corners who were all 6 feet 190 ish pounds to no avail, so it’s time to get back to what worked and what was successful.

Drafting a corner who is 5’9 183 lbs.

A corner in the mold of Avonte Maddox.

The Instincts:

The Hands and Route Recognition:

The Recovery:

Why He Makes Sense:

@GregHartPA wrote a great piece you should read if you already haven’t, regarding how the Eagles draft a year ahead.

Why Our Mock Drafts Miss So Often – Howie’s History on Positional Value and Investing Ahead of Needs

Avonte Maddox is technically signed thru 2025, but they can save $7.5M by designating him as a post-June 1 cut as early as next off-season.

With a CB room as expensive as theirs, having someone eventually slide into Maddoxs’ role at slot corner on a rookie deal could be very appealing.

LaDainian Tomlinson’s nephew looks to be a great fit for a team willing to invest in a nickel/slot corner. For this mock, that team was the Eagles.

RD5 149- Dorian Williams

Williams was a 3-year starter and also a team captain, a trait the Eagles have valued in the last couple of drafts.

Diagnosing and Executing:

Clutch:

Praise:

Why He Makes Sense:

The Eagles have a young linebacker room, and a young linebacker, Nakobe Dean, that he could pair with while bringing stability and continuity to a position that historically has a lot of turnover.

The Eagles do not usually draft a linebacker with a high-valued pick, so this type of player and value in round 5 is just too much to pass on. And acquiring him at this spot may prove to have been wishful thinking.

He has the talent to be a top-100 selection. I have seen him as high as 94 and as low as 194 in mocks. The Eagles would maybe have to invest a higher pick on him if they had an interest.

Conclusion:

Most of this draft has been identifying building blocks for the future while also being cognizant that this team is a contender right now.

I believe Howie will do that as well, and do a better job than I just did.

Some of the why behind the what.

I didn’t bring in an outside corner because Slay and Bradberry will be manning the positions for 2 or more seasons and the addition of Greedy joining Jobe, Zech, etc. has me feeling comfortable to wait another year.

2024, CB or bust!

Not drafting an OL in the first round is basically for the same reason as CB. They have a set line-up and using a 1st-round pick on a player that would sit all season unless thrown into duty prematurely due to injury did not seem to be the best allocation of resources for a Super Bowl-contending team.

Mauch in round two checked off every box in my opinion.

I also didn’t bother drafting a QB or a Punter (sorry Greg)

If the Eagles chose to go 8 picks and prioritize a QB in this draft they have plenty of 2024 ammunition to deal an RD5 or 6 draft pick to do so.

Jaren Hall, DTR, Malik Cunningham, and Stetson Bennet would also seemingly profile into a backup role that the Eagles could have some interest in.

If I had one regret from this mock, it is not drafting a running back.

I like Tank Bigsby, Zach Charbonnet, and of course Bijan, to name a few.

I do think the Eagles could choose to use a round 2 or 3 pick on an RB.

I am putting my hopes in the hands of Penny, Boston, Gainwell, Sermon, and any free agent that is available during the season if an injury arises that creates a need.

Please, let me know your thoughts.

I would love all feedback on what could have been done differently, or better, and if you agree with a few!

As Always, Thank You for reading!

Follow me @PHLEagleNews

Follow us @PhillyCvrCorner

Follow Greg @GregHartPA

David

3/23/23

Why Our Mock Drafts Miss So Often – Howie’s History on Positional Value and Investing Ahead of Needs

When you look back on the most frequently mocked players to the Eagles, it’s comically inaccurate year after year. And it’s happening again this year with Bijan and Jahmyr as two of the most frequently mocked round 1 players and recently, Brian Branch at 10 increasing with the ongoing CJGJ drama.

None of these picks are happening, not because they aren’t good players, but because they are awful surplus value decisions. And Howie understands this and is right about it.

I’ve spent so much time looking at both the Eagles and overall league draft trends and while Howie continues to evolve, his drafts make much more sense if you realize he:

  • Invests for needs 1-2 years out, not the upcoming season
  • Values draft capital and amount of picks, not only for the total amount but for the flexibility it provides in allowing a move up
  • Doesn’t waver from his positional value – with 12 round 1 picks he has only taken OL, DL, WR, and QB. And his commitment to the trenches is real, averaging 1.1 players on the lines in rounds 1-3 and over 3 players on the lines each draft

Drafting for 1-2 years out

Below shows each draft since 2017 with the top players mocked to the Eagles, who they actually took with high picks (round 1-3), and which key players / starters they were projected to lose on offense and defense.

Eagles draft picks and projected player losses

Besides 2020 when it was obvious Howie was taking a receiver, the top mocked players haven’t really been close. With 9 of the 23 top mocked players since 2017 being RBs and LBs, we should know better.

But look back at each draft and what they were expecting to lose in the next year or two:

2017 – DE as the emerging need
Eagles draft DE Derek Barnett ahead of likely losing two DEs the next year. Chris Long was on a 1-year deal and recently extended Vinny Curry was expected to be released in 2018 due to his deal structure. On day 2, Howie does draft for need with back-to-back CB picks, neither of which worked out in Philly.

2018 – Investing in 12 personnel and ahead of OT needs:
Another year where fans loved the RBs and, ironically, this was the one year Philly didn’t have a need at RB. We didn’t have major losses projected as Howie (mistakenly) kept the band together after the Super Bowl. They did release Brent Celek but with Zach Ertz, the pick of Dallas Goedert allowed Philly to run the highest amount of 12 personnel (36%, twice the league average). With day 3 picks, Howie takes two swings on an emerging need at tackle and invests again at DE with Josh Sweat.

2019 – Again investing ahead of needs at OT and WR
Howie gets ahead of a need when they moved up to take OT Andre Dillard: “We have a Hall of Fame left tackle (Jason Peters), and again, he’s got a great opportunity to come in and learn from Jason and at some point in time get an opportunity to play”. On day 2 Howie attempts to get ahead of WR needs with the JJ. Arcega-Whiteside pick and surprisingly takes RB Miles Sanders to fill a need.

2020 – WR as both an urgent and emerging need
The year everybody got the position right and Howie got the player wrong when they took WR Jalen Reagor. With JJAW a miss, WR is an immediate need as they were losing Nelson Agholor and knew both Alshon Jeffrey and Desean Jackson were likely to leave after the season. Armed with 10 total picks, Howie takes two additional WRs on day 3.

2021 – Attempt #3 at WR and investing in the line
DeVonta Smith was the third swing at WR as Reagor and JJAW were misses. And the Eagles begin thinking about life after Jason Kelce when they take Landon Dickerson.

2022 – Investing in the scheme and ahead of needs
Like RB, fans loved LBs in 2022 which Howie just doesn’t do. Jordan Davis was primarily giving the new coaching staff one of the missing pieces for the new defensive structure. But the Eagles were also preparing for one or both of Hargrave and Cox to leave over the next year. And with Brandon Brooks retiring and Landon moving over to LG, the Eagles again prepare for Kelce’s retirement with Cam Jurgens.

What are the upcoming needs ahead of the 2023 draft?

Free agency last week saw mocks swinging with every move the Eagles made. CB is by far the most mocked position to the Eagles this year, but when Bradberry re-signed, Twitter was full of “CB is no longer the pick at 10″… then news of Slay’s release and CB is back… and when Slay is un-released, CB is again removed.

The day-to-day swings of free agency week aren’t going to change Howie’s draft plans. But looking ahead to 2024 and 2025 probably helps more:

OffenseDefense
2024OC Jason Kelce?
WR Quez Watkins
WR Greg Ward
OG Sua Opeta		DT Fletcher Cox
DE Brandon Graham
DE Derek Barnett
CB Darius Slay (release?)
2025OG Landon Dickerson
WR AJ Brown (restructure?)
RB Kenneth Gainwell
TE Jack Stoll

EDGE Haason Reddick
DE Josh Sweat
CB Avonte Maddox
CB Zech McPhearson
DT Milton Williams
DT Marlon Tuipulotu

What this means for the 2023 draft

1. DL is going to be their top priority, especially DE/EDGE:
They may currently need more bodies at DT, but EDGE is a bigger need over a 1-2 year period, especially when you consider how much more expensive it is in both free agency and the draft. Yes, they have Reddick, Sweat, BG, and Barnett. But next year, BG is aging and Barnett is a free agent. And in 2025, both Sweat and Reddick hit free agency.

2. Cornerback is still a need, but I don’t expect investment high:
I am not sure Howie was ever looking at the top end of the corner market this year, but we shouldn’t look at Bradberry and Slay staying or signing Greedy as impacting draft approach at all. Slay will likely be released in 2024, Greedy is on a one-year, and both Avonte and Zech are free agents in 2024. Howie has been collecting a ton of cheap-but-upside guys and I expect 2023 to be about seeing if one can emerge and adding a mid-round CB. Hope I’m wrong here as I’d love a top, young corner, but I just don’t think a CB at 10 was the most likely pick.

3. When Howie has need a starter on the OL, he drafts high :
Despite the Eagles being viewed as a heavy trenches team, historically they are below league average in OL investment, mostly because they have had the luxury of long-term, pro-Bowl level players for most of the past decade. But that is changing.

Recent investments in Landon and Cam filled the Brooks and Kelce projected vacancies, but now with Seumalo leaving, does Driscoll move to RG? And if he does, who is their swing tackle? Lane has missed 19 games over the past 4 seasons and there is no way Julian Good-Jones and Jarrid Williams will be the plan as first off the bench. Howie has filled in with lower picks but when he needs a starter, he uses a premium pick. Maybe they are comfortable with Driscoll and continue with lower picks for depth, but I’m not sure they commit to that.

4. WR is a sneaky need:
Howie has never gone back-to-back years without drafting a WR. Maybe last year counts as taking one with the A.J. Brown trade but regardless, Howie brought both JJAW and Reagor in a year ahead of planned departures. No position group on this team except QB has a bigger risk of drop-off with an injury than WR. And, WR3 could be upgraded today but will also be a need next year.

5. Expect one or more trade downs as this is back-to-back years with limited picks:
Most are expecting this so it isn’t a huge surprise. But a couple of points. First, with only 5 picks last year and 6 this year, this is the fewest number of picks Howie has had except 2018-19 when they depleted their picks for Wentz. And second, while he has two 1sts, he effectively only has 4 picks this year with the last two deep in the 200s. In 2018 when Howie traded out of the 1st, he explained his reasoning which has relevance this year:

“For the way we’re trying to build, it was important to get some more resources moving forward… We have options at our disposal, we won’t hesitate if we think the value is right to move up or move back again tomorrow.”

We can stop mocking Bijan Robinson or Brian Branch at 10 and Jahmyr Gibbs at 30

2023 Top 5 NFL Draft Prospects At Each Position

OFFENSE:

QB

Bryce Young

C.J. Stroud

Will Levis

Anthony Richardson

Hendon Hooker

RB

Bijan Robinson

Jahmyr Gibbs

Zach Charbonnet

Tank Bigsby

Zach Evans

WR

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Quentin Johnston

Jordan Addison

Jalin Hyatt

Zay Flowers

TE

Dalton Kincaid

Darnell Washington

Michael Mayer

Sam LaPorta

Luke Musgrave

OT

Paris Johnson

Darnell Wright

Anton Harrison

Broderick Jones

Peter Skoronski

IOL

O’Cyrus Torrence

Steve Avila

Cody Mauch

Luke Wypler

Joe Tippman

DEFENSE:

Edge

Will Anderson Jr

Tyree Wilson

Nolan Smith

Myles Murphy

Keion White

IDL

Jalen Carter

Calijah Kancey

Mazi Smith

Bryan Breese

Keeanu Benton

CB

Devon Witherspoon

Christian Gonzalez

Emmanuel Forbes

Deonte Banks

Cam Smith

S

Brian Branch

Antonio Johnson

Sydney Brown

Chris Smith

Jammie Robinson

LB

Jack Campbell

Drew Sanders

Trenton Simpson

Henry To’o To’o

Daiyan Henley

As Always, Thank You for reading!

Follow me @PHLEagleNews

Follow us @PhillyCvrCorner

Follow Greg @GregHartPA

David

3/18/23

The 2023 Punter Mock Draft: Who Needs One, Who Gets Drafted

It’s time! Everybody is busy mocking who gets their franchise quarterback, where the pass rushers go, and debating where the running backs will go this year. But let’s not forget about the specialists…

Punters are getting better and better, with last year’s class being an all-time great. And this year there is another batch of huge legs coming out of college. For the teams that need a punter, you have another shot this year.

If you are new and don’t think teams should draft punters, click here for why

“Teams don’t draft punters”

They do. And it’s more common than most think. Since 2010:

  • Almost 2 punters are drafted each year on average with at least one taken every year except two
  • 19 teams have drafted punters with 6 teams being frequent shoppers, drafting a punter twice
  • Punters average being taken at pick 180 and they usually start coming off the board between 140-150

Below shows all 25 punters taken by pick location since 2010.

Punters drafted by pick location

Who needs a punter this year?

There are 4 teams that are top candidates to take a punter and another 3 that could surprise. Below shows each team’s punting performance in 2023 by punt EPA (credits to Puntalytics) and punt grade (PFF) with the likely teams in red:

NFL team punting stats

“Lock to Take One” tier:

New England

Punt EPA:-0.2932nd
Punt Grade:51.8532nd
# of Punts / Game:4.79th
Pick 140+:4

If there was ever a lock to take a punter, it should be New England this year. They are by far last in the league in punting after the Jake Bailey era weirdly ended. Belichick has twice drafted a punter high (pick 150 in 2010 and 163 in 2019) and has 4 picks in the 6th round. One thing to note is Belichick has almost exclusively used left-footed punters up until Jake Bailey but this is a righty-dominated draft.

“Likely To” tier:

Green Bay

Punt EPA:-0.0122nd
Punt Grade:59.0027th
# of Punts / Game:3.230th
Picks 140+:6

The Packers should draft a punter but I’m not sure they will. They drafted JK Scott in 2018, released him, and signed Pat O’Donnell who is 32, showed some decline, and is at best middle-of-the league. The Packers are well equipped to take a punter with 6 picks after 140, but they punt at one of the lowest rates in the league. One thing to note, they have one of the highest rates of short-field punting in the league (6th in the league with 20% of punts being from plus territory).

Arizona

Punt EPA:-0.0527th
Punt Grade:63.4020th
# of Punts / Game:4.215th
Picks 140+:3

Arizona has a first-time GM in Monti Ossenfort who was previously with the Patriots and most recently the Titans’ Director of Player Personnel. Did he have a hand in finding 2022’s man-who-kicked-the-daylights-out-of-the-ball Ryan Stonehouse? Legend, and now-oldest man in the NFL, Andy Lee is a free agent and while he could return, Arizona needs to bring in a successor.

Washington

Punt EPA:0.0512th
Punt Grade:56.1028th
# of Punts / Game:4.94th
Picks 140+:4

On the surface, the Commanders don’t seem like a candidate to draft a punter. But their offense has them punting a lot, Tress Way is 33, he’s been on a clear decline and is the 3rd highest paid punter in the league. And while the franchise hasn’t drafted a punter since 2008, GM Martin Mayhew has punters in his past – he was VP of Player Personnel with San Francisco when they took Mitch Wishnowsky at pick 110 and Detroit’s GM in 2013 when they drafted Sam Martin at pick 165.

“Should But Probably Won’t” tier:

Philadelphia

Punt EPA:0.0021st
Punt Grade:54.2031st
# of Punts / Game:3.724th
Picks 140+:2

The evergreen Eagles-need-a-punter section… the Super Bowl pain of a horrible punt to the wrong side of the field at the worst time reinforces the need for Philly to upgrade. But they are one of the few teams that has never used a pick on a punter and Howie’s overriding positional value approach means they probably won’t again. I don’t like doubting Howie but he is missing out on an opportunity to upgrade during this punting “Golden Era” of talent coming out.

“Wildcard” tier:

Indianapolis

Punt EPA:-0.0930th
Punt Grade:62.2022nd
# of Punts / Game:4.215th
Picks 140+:3

The Colts should have Rigoberto Sanchez coming back from a torn achilles who is an amazing story – after having a malignant tumor removed in 2020, he was back 2 weeks later. But he costs $2.9M against the cap and the Colts will need to see how his recovery is going.

Houston

Punt EPA:0.097th
Punt Grade:61.9023rd
# of Punts / Game:5.23rd
Picks 140+:0

Familiar face Cameron Johnston punts for Houston and is still a decent punter, but is due $3.5M in 2023 and his performance doesn’t match the price. The Texans aren’t in a great spot to take one with no picks after 140, but late picks are easy to find. GM Nick Caserio comes from New England who has drafted as many punters as anybody.

The 2023 punter mock

R5-149: Green Bay – Michael Turk, Oklahoma
The Packers, best equipped this year with punter draft capital (picks later than 140), get things started and move aggressively. With a 4.20 second average hangtime and 46-yard average using the crappy college ball, the Packers are getting the best all-around punter this year.

Known more for his distance, Turk has put an amazing, best-in-this-draft 48% of his career punts inside the 20 yardline

R5-156: New England – Brad Robbins, Michigan
The run on punters begins! The Patriots don’t have pick 156 today but Belichick is the most active trader in the league. They pick up 156 from an earlier trade and take go back to Michigan for the second time. Bill doesn’t get his lefty punter but Robbins would be talked about as the best in this class if not for an injury half-way through the season. He could end up having the best pro career in this class.

Nobody beat Robbins’ pre-injury pace of a 4.37 hangtime and 47-yard average (and his 2021 full-year stats are similarly impressive)

R6-213: Arizona – Ethan Evans, Wingate
Monti Ossenfort brings in a potential college gem from D-II as a successor to legend Andy Lee. A huge leg, Monti will be attempting to repeat the Titans’ Stonehouse magic from last year.

Evans shined in the Shrine and Hula Bowls, averaging over 46 yards including punts of 59 and 53 yards, longer than anybody else except Turk

R7-215: Washington – Bryce Baringer, Michigan St
In a second-straight strong class, Baringer could have gone higher and Washington benefits, picking up somebody that can be a top punter in the NFL. Washington punts a lot and might as well be good at it.

Baringer shines from the open-field, averaging almost 51 yards a punt there.

UDFA Signing: Philadelphia – Adam Korsak, Rutgers
The Eagles unsurprisingly and disappointingly don’t use a pick on a punter but do sign local Adam Korsak as competition for Siposs. This is a much better fit than most, including me, initially gave credit for. The Eagles don’t punt often, 24th in the league, but actually punt from short-fields at the 10th highest rate. Korsak doesn’t give the distance or hangtime the others in this class do, but is an assassin locating the ball and eliminating returns. If he was kicking in the Super Bowl, there’s no doubt in my mind Kadarius Toney has no return.

On short-field punts, Korsak forces opposing teams to start on the 6 (SIX!) yardline – nobody else in this class is better than the 12 yard line. And in 2023 on 75 punts, he allowed 8 returns for minus-2 yards total with 35 punts inside the 20 and only 2 touchbacks.

UDFA Signing: Houston – Issac Power, Baylor
This is probably my favorite fit of all the picks. With no late picks, Houston waits until the UDFA signing period to bring in competition for Cameron Johnston. Staying local, the Texans are banking on a return to 2021 form by Baylor’s Power after a disappointing 2022 kicking the new, punter-hating Vapor Elite ball. If he does get back to 2021 numbers, the Texans may have found the steal of the draft. Like last year’s Stonehouse, several teams may end up regretting passing on Power.

In 2021, Power averaged a 4.31 hangtime and 45.0 distance, which would make him this year’s top punter

2023 Philadelphia Eagles Free Agent Wish List

The Eagles may not be as active in the free agency market as in past years as they play the compensatory pick game knowing they could net 4 picks in the 2024 draft valued in the 3rd and 4th round range.

An interest in players who were cut that does not count against their comp pick return may be of more interest, but with numerous free agents leaving they still could be players on a few guys.

DT:

Dalvin Tomlinson–

A rotational tackle, who gets a lot of production out of his snaps. Last season he had 3 sacks, 7 QB hits, and 20 hurries. While being an above-average interior pass rusher, he was also good against the run. He could fill a role and is a decent fit for most defenses.

Javon Hargrave–

Javon did a great job by notching a career-high 11 sacks, but it came at the expense of some run defense deficiency. Javon did what he was asked to do and provided outstanding interior pressure all season and will be rewarded accordingly on the open market.

Zach Allen–

Allen seems to be a player on the rise who had 6 sacks last season and played an above-average run defense. He could see a decent contract as teams will gamble on the potential.

Dre’Mont Jones–

When Jones is healthy he provides a great pass rush. Despite missing the last 4 games of the season, Dre’Mont had 7sacks, 5quarterback hits, 33 quarterback hurries, and 25 stops.

Fletcher Cox–

If Hargrave leaves, do not be surprised if Cox is back on a one-year deal. I do not see Fletch as a guy who will take less money to stay with the Birds, but if he is not blown away in free agency, he could give a small discount to stay with the only franchise he has played with.

Edge:

Jadeveon Clowney–

The Eagles have flirted with him for years, maybe they finally commit to a one-year agreement.

A rotation of BG, Sweat, Reddick, Barnett and Clowney is pretty formidable. One year 8 million?

Charles Omenihu–

Despite being wrong about cheesesteaks, Charles is a decent player and could come in on a 2 $18 million deal to provide some pressure.

Marcus Davenport–

Some teams may be willing to pay Marcus a lot more than the Eagles are willing, but even at 32 years old, he is still a good edge rusher, and one of the better gambles in this FA class.

Yannick Ngakoue–

Last season Yannick had 9.5 sacks, 29 tackles, and 1 forced fumble, but he does struggle against the run. I am not sure if the Eagles are looking for the fit, but he does provide the potential for game-changing plays off the edge.

Arden Key Edge/LB-

Arden is another player some teams could see as on the rise. He opened a lot of eyes with the Jaguars this season by providing 5sacks, 13 quarterback hits, and 33 quarterback hurries.

Safety:

Rodney McLeod–

The Birds did not keep him a year ago for this same amount (or less) so it would be a surprise to see them re-sign him now. He is a great leader and teacher and does have value to an NFL team, not sure Philly is the one, even for 1–2 million.

Marcus Epps–

The emergence of Blankenship may have made Epps expendable, especially if the Eagles re-sign CJGJ. Epps could also command a 2 or 3 year deal worth more money than the Eagles have to spend.

Jordan Poyer–

Would the Eagles bring him back home? At 32, his best days may be behind him, but somebody is going to pay him to find out. Despite his age, there are no signs of regression, last season he had 4 INT, 8 passes defended, and 63 tackles.

CHAUNCEY GARDNER-JOHNSON-

The Eagles did not place the franchise tag on him (which was no surprise as it is bad business and the Eagles do not use it) but they are still negotiating with him and hope to bring him back. He provided outstanding play all season against the pass and the run. A fan favorite who will be sorely missed if they do not work it out.

Jesse Bates III-

Played last season on the franchise tag and earned himself a larger contract doing so. He will have many suitors and will be paid handsomely.

Cornerbacks:

Byron Murphy Jr-

Has the ability to play inside and outside and despite missing 8 games due to an injury last season, the 25-year-old will have a good market.

Marcus Peters–

Marcus is likely looking at a one or two-year deal and should have a few suitors based on his past performance.

Patrick Peterson–

At 33 years old his best days are likely behind him, but he did have a good season in Min last year and he will likely only get a 1 yr deal on the market. He could be a good stop-gap insurance policy for the Eagles who will also likely draft a cb high. Howie and the Eagles have long been interested in Patrick. My guess is a 1 yr 5 million would get it done.

James Bradberry–

Had the best season of his career in Philadelphia playing opposite Slay. With the recent developments of Slay being allowed to seek a trade, maybe bringing Bradsberry back makes sense.

Jonathan Jones–

Jones is a good cover man with above-average skills playing the ball. He yielded a 53.3% completion and 73.7 QB rating when targeted this past season, and should find a nice payday because of it.

Jamel Dean–

Jamel allowed 34 catches on 68 targets with 2 interceptions and 5 [pass breakups. A young corner that should have a robust market.

Linebackers:

Drue Tranquill–

The free agent to be had a career season notching an impressive five sacks, 15 pressures, 105 tackles., and 2 interceptions. He will likely cost more than the Eagles want to spend.

Kyzir White–

I do not know if big money is awaiting Kyzir, 2 years 10 million? But he played well even if he seemed to tire down the stretch. If the Eagles can not sign TJ, maybe Dean plays the middle and Kyzir keeps his role to stay outside.

TJ Edwards-

I know some fans think Dean is a MIKE and that means TJ is on his way out, but I am not so sure. The Eagles brass like what he has provided playing in the middle and I would not be surprised to see him back. A 3-year deal worth around $13M a year with 25 guaranteed seems fair to both sides.

Tremaine Edmunds–

Plays all 3 downs and provides an above-average pass rush and coverage ability. He should find a contract to his liking.

Lavonte David–

His age may drive his price and total years committed down, but his play hasn’t declined as of yet. Lamonte had 3 sacks, 124 tackles, 1 forced fumble, and 5 passes defended.

Bobby Wagner–

He will likely find his way back to Seattle, but the elite-run defender would be a great mentor to Nakobe Dean.

Running Back:

Miles Sanders–

Had a career season as he heads into free agency and with a lot of the best RBs getting tagged or singing deals, he is one of the best left on the market before it even begins. The Eagles do not usually pay a lot of money at this position and there are a lot of backs in this year’s draft. Miles will probably find more money from another team, but he has expressed a desire to stay with the team, How much of a hometown discount he is willing to take will likely decide his fate.

Damian Harris-

Played with Jalen Hurts and DeVonta Smith at Alabama.

Some other free agent names that could interest the Birds if Miles leaves are Devin Singletary, Samaje Perine, David Montgomery, and Raheem Mostert. Not an exciting group.

Wide Receivers:

Odell Beckham Jr-

Wants $20 million a year, nope. Next.

Parris Campbell–

Sirianni will be linked to most receivers he coached, but Parris could make a lot of sense. When healthy, he is a reliable receiving option. Parris managed to start 16 games this past season hauling in 63 receptions for 623 yards and 3 touchdowns. Also of note, 32 of his 63 receptions were for first downs.

Mecole Hardman–

Despite coming off surgery to repair a core muscle injury, Mecole will be in demand. Mecole played 8 games before suffering the injury and managed 25 receptions on 34 targets for 297 yards and scored four touchdowns. Money will likely be a factor if the Eagles can bring him in, but he would be a good compliment to DeVonta and AJ.

Jakobi Meyers–

From undrafted to about to get paid as one of the more reliable possession receivers on the market. Jakobi has a knack for picking up third downs and has improved his game in the red zone.

JuJu- Smith-Schuster-

An adequate slot receiver who no longer possesses the skills he showed off during his time in Pittsburgh, he is NOT a good fit for the Eagles.

As Always, Thank You for reading!

Follow me @PHLEagleNews

Follow us @PhillyCvrCorner

Follow Greg @GregHartPA

David

3/12/23

What We Know About Draft Success: Big Board Chalk, Reaching, and Trading Down

Credits to Ben Baldwin and Timo Riske as I heavily reference work from both of them. They are among the absolute best in advancing thinking on player value and draft analytics. If you don’t follow them, you should be.

With the Combine complete and only pro days left, we are entering the home stretch ahead of the draft. And with that, the consensus 1st rounders won’t move around much more. There won’t be more Devon Witherspoon’s, Lukas Van Ness’s, and Drew Sanders moving up from the depths of the big boards into the 1st round.

What do we know about prospect rankings and improving success in the draft?

Big boards are as accurate as team evaluations

PFF’s Timo Riske did great work showing that the consensus big boards we all see are as accurate as NFL teams on who the top players are. Here is the full article:

“Can the Consensus Big Board really predict the 2021 NFL Draft?” – PFF.com

Couple of points from this research:

  • For non-QBs, there is little difference between team rankings and consensus big boards through the top 3 rounds except for QBs
  • As you get into day 3, big boards are much less accurate, probably for a couple of reasons including teams being better at identifying talent and player opportunity.

Reaching is usually a mistake

(…and the inverse, draft “steals” are rarely actually steals)

In related work, Timo Riske again analyzed players drafted at picks that differed greatly from their consensus ranks and found that players that went much higher than their consensus rank usually underperformed their draft location. Likewise, players drafted much later than their consensus performed closer to what is expected where they were drafted and were not “steals”.

Of course, people will point to the outliers that worked out like Tyreek Hill and Stefon Diggs as “steals” and Darius Leonard as a “reach”, but for every one of these, there are literally dozens and dozens of counter examples.

This does not mean It speaks to Sheil Kapadia’s great draft commandment “Don’t be overconfident in your ability to evaluate talent.”

An example of the Seattle Seahawks top-rated 2022 draft and the value of not reaching…

First round miss rates are still high

Since 2010, an average of over 12 of the 1st rounders aren’t top 50 players. Even the very best years – 2018 and 2019 – had nine 1st rounders that missed.

Having a top pick doesn’t guarantee success – all but one year had at least one top-10 pick outside the top-50 players. Drafts average over two misses in the top 10 picks. The 2020 draft had Jeff Okudah and CJ Henderson. 2019 had Clelin Ferrell. And, of course, teams taking their shots at their QBs have missed plenty – Josh Rosen, Zach Wilson, and Sam Darnold.

Tackles are less risky than the other premium positions

The most valuable picks are from the mid-1st to mid-2nd rounds

Last year, some amazing work from Timo Riske and Ben Baldwin aggregated a view on player value and financial cost that had some really interesting takeaways on which draft locations are most valuable and positional value in the draft.

“The surplus value of each position in the NFL draft” – PFF.com

First to explain their approach:

  • Since the rookie wage scale was introduced, every pick has a set salary, regardless of position (orange line below)
  • Player performance (blue line) is higher earlier in the draft, but it decreases at a slower rate than the rookie wage scale, especially in the first 10 picks
  • The difference between a player’s value and their cost is the draft “surplus value” (green line)

Because the rookie wage scale drops faster than player value, and because it is still hard to pick good players, the value of a pick – the surplus value – is not highest at the top of the draft. Picks from the teens through the middle of the 2nd round are more valuable than picks 1-5.

An example of what surplus value says about drafting running backs

The case for trading down

We all love our players – I do it every year and am doing it again this year. If I’m Howie and Christian Gonzalez is there at 10, I turn my phone off and run the card up. You may want Tyree Wilson or Devon Witherspoon or Joey Porter Jr. there instead.

But what if, as we are waiting for Roger Goodell to announce our guy, we hear “the Philadelphia Eagles trade pick 10 to the…” and the Eagles move way down in the 1st? It would be a giant let-down but it could be the best move.

The Vikings 2022 trade down

We have an interesting real-life example from one of the newest, and most analytical, GMs last year. In 2022, the Vikings’ new GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah surprised everybody by trading picks 12 and 46 to the Lions for 32, 34, and 66. It seems crazy, but look at the picks made (some of these picks were later traded again, I am just pulling the actual picks made):

1-12: WR Jameson Williams


2-46: DE Josh Paschal

1-32: S Lewis Cine
2-34: WR Christian Watson

3-66; LB Brian Asamoah

Jameson was well-regarded, but because of his injury, we didn’t get to see much of him in 2022. Unfortunately, the same with Lewis Cine who tore his ACL before the season. But would you take Cine and Watson over Jameson?

Time will tell but the Vikings raised their chance of success. Pick 12 has an expected value of 5.49 AV per year while picks 32 and 34 total 8.85 expected AV per year of value (32 is 4.47 AV and pick 34 is 4.38).

The Steelers 2019 trade up

Another example with not as big of a trade down was in 2019 when Pittsburgh traded up with Denver to take LB Devin Bush:

1-10: LB Devin Bush



1-20: TE Noah Fant
2-52: TE Drew Sample
2020 3rd round pick

The Steelers love their LBs and while Devin Bush is very good, he is exactly equal to the value you expect at pick 10 (5.97 AV per year). But Fant, an above average TE, and Sample combine to equal the value of Bush, not counting the future 3rd.

What this all means and options for the Eagles

All of the above does not say don’t use a high draft pick. Looking back at the Eagles 2021 trade up and pick of DeVonta Smith, it’s hard to second-guess it. Sure they could have stayed put and taken Micah Parsons in retrospect, but if they were set on getting a WR they would have walked away with Kadarius Toney or Rashod Bateman.

The way to think about it is, over time, there are things that raise a team’s chance of success. To recap:

  • As we get closer to the draft, consensus big boards will be pretty accurate on actual draft locations.
  • This means “accurate” on which players were taken, NOT who the best players are – around 40% of the 1st round is wrong every year
  • The relative cost of players vs. their performance, and factoring in miss rates, actually points to mid 1st round through mis 2nd round as the highest value draft locations

If a team had a choice of a single top 10 pick or multiple picks in this best value range, over time they would be better off with multiple picks. And history shows this.

For an example with our Eagles, this year’s pick 10 is roughly worth picks 20 and 51 in a trade. If you look back at every draft since 2000, only five times has pick 10 outperformed the cumulative value of the picks at 20 and 51 (one of these outperformance years was the Eagles selection of DeVonta Smith):

Both pick 10 and the combination of picks 20 and 51 delivered at or above expected value at those positions nearly half of the time, which is expected. Pick 10’s variance in value is a bit higher (3.3 AV per year vs. 2.8 for picks 20+51) which is simply because two picks “diversify” some.

2023 Eagles draft options

This trade may not be possible – we are assuming somebody like Seattle or the Chargers would be willing to move up and give their top two picks for somebody they love. But running a mock simulator just to show the options available on staying at pick 10 vs. trading down for picks 20 and 51.

Here are names available at picks 10, 20, 30, and 51:

Pick 10: Popular picks available include Devon Witherspoon, Joey Porter Jr., Paris Johnson, or Lukas Van Ness

Pick 20: Calijah Kancey, Nolan Smith, Cam Smith

Pick 30: Emmanuel Forbes, Anton Harrison, Darnell Wright, Josh Downs, Felix Anudike-Uzomah

Pick 51: Derick Hall, Tuli Tuipulotu, Keeanu Benton, Matthew Bergeron, Garrett Williams, DJ Turner

Thanks for reading and if you aren’t already, please follow us at @PhillyCvrCorner, @PhillyEagleNews, and @GregHartPA

We Gave Sean Desai His Guys, Now an Eagles All-Offense Mock for Brian Johnson

PHILADELPHIA, PA - DECEMBER 04: Philadelphia Eagles quarterbacks coach Brian Johnson looks on during the game between the Tennessee Titans and the Philadelphia Eagles on December 4, 2022 at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, PA. (Photo by Andy Lewis/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

My last “All Defense Mock for Sean Desai” post was a request which led to this one as well. An all-offense mock is a bit more difficult and will probably be a little less realistic. But I am going with it nonetheless.

First, what can we expect on new offensive coordinator Brian Johnson? It will largely be a continuation of Philly’s already explosive offense but there are some things to note:

  • Highly regarded in developing QBs and a long history with Jalen Hurts
  • Led a highly efficient and explosive offense at Florida in 2020, doubling their explosive passing plays
  • And most interesting, utilizing RBs in the passing game to a much higher degree

Take a look at his 2020 stats from Florida when he was calling plays. Targets to RBs were up, but more than that, they were used to a much larger degree in routes.

  • In 2018 and 2019, passes to RBs were all at the LOS or behind but in 2020 they averaged an 2.9 ADOT.
  • In prior years a large chunk of RB passing was in the screen game, under Johnson it was a minor part.
  • Targets to RBs were way up under Johnson as well, hitting 17% of total passes.

And this is all while having Kyle Pitts and Kadarius Toney as options in the passing game – it was very deliberate to get the backs involved.

So if we did an all-offense draft for Johnson, who would I take? @PHLEagleNews and I were chatting, he said I take more risks in the draft and I do at times. It will absolutely be on display here.

Pick 1-10: Quentin Johnston, WR

This would make 4 years in a row the Eagles would use a top pick on a receiver (including last year’s trade for A.J. Brown). Will it happen? No. But here’s why I love this for new OC Brian Johnson:

  • Quentin is a size and speed freak and not sure anybody can create with the ball in their hands better than him
  • The Eagles have WR1A and WR1B which isn’t unique anymore among the top teams. Everybody is focused on WR3 as a need and looking at slot guys – don’t try to fit a role, just take another dominant guy.
  • How do you cover the Eagles? A.J. Brown is elite vs. man and press, DeVonta is good no matter the coverage, and Quentin is one of only two WRs in this class with a Y/RR over 3.0 against both zone and man.
  • Philly benefited from extremely low injury levels in 2022 and their offense depends on two alphas

There are absolutely safer picks and as dominant as Quentin can be, he comes with some concerns – his drop rate, disappearing in some games. And maybe it will be hard to spread targets across all these options. But I’ll take the risk.

There are plenty of clips with him running downfield, this one isn’t even a target but it’s why I like him – his ability to immediately stop and change direction at his size is dangerous.

Other options:

  • The only other offensive players that would have made sense here are OTs Anton Harrison, Broderick Jones, or Darnell Wright

Pick 1-30: Darnell Washington, TE

Back-to-back higher risk but mismatch nightmare picks. But you saw what Brian Johnson did with Kyle Pitts at Florida. To be clear, I am NOT saying Darnell is Kyle Pitts, but here’s why I’m taking Darnell:

  • Across the league, passing from 12 personnel is more efficient than from 11 personnel but most teams struggle running it. The Eagles already have the top-rated offense from 12 and don’t even have a secondary TE threat – they generate 0.42 EPA in 12 personnel, more than triple their offensive average of 0.12 per play. I’m not sure how you defend Dallas and Darnell out of 12.
  • His receiving value may seem like a projection, but he wasn’t asked to catch much at UGA. When he did, he was dominant – the highest YAC/Rec in this class, 2nd highest ADOT, and 22 of 28 receptions were 1st downs
  • The absolute worst-case, bottom floor on Darnell is getting somebody that blocks like an OT

Other options:

  • RB Jahmyr Gibbs I thought long and hard on and know I will forever disappoint Clio. Gibbs makes a lot of sense (more on why in a minute)
  • OTs Anton Harrison and Darnell Wright were still there in this sim which was really tempting

Pick 2-62: Cody Mauch, OT

A fan-favorite and one that makes so much sense I don’t think I need to explain much here:

  • Versatility across the entire OL
  • Mobility and footwork that the Eagles require
  • The data on arm length at tackle isn’t as compelling as many think it is. I think he can stick at OT. At worst, you have a OG and swing tackle.

From @PhillyWannabGM, if you aren’t following him for draft content you should.

Other options:

  • Doubling up WR with Marvin Mims or A.T. Perry

Pick 3-94: Kenny McIntosh, RB

There isn’t a better pass-catching RB in this class than McIntosh.. If Johnson will use RBs more creatively in the passing game, McIntosh is the best pass-catcher in this class and it’s not even close:

  • A 2.21 Y/RR – the next closest (Jahmyr Gibbs) is almost a half-yard lower
  • Across 4 seasons and 90 targets, he has zero drops. Zero.
  • 12.3 YAC/reception, totaling 515 yards, best in this class
  • Underrated runner with a near 30% missed tackle rate generated and 57% of his yards coming after contact
  • Some view him as small – at 6’1″ 210 lbs

Other options:

  • OG Emil Ekiyor, an underrated interior linemen

Pick 7-221: OT Kadeem Telfort

The late rounds are really hard to find NFL players, but the best position is offensive line. So that’s where I’m going.

  • Massive 6’8″, 330 lb small school tackle that needs development, but has surprising mobility for his size
  • Showed well against UGA in 2021 going up against Travon Walker, Nolan Smith, and Adam Anderson

Pick 7-250: Tre Tucker, WR

A speedster whose value is probably returns.

  • Almost 1,700 return yards and a 25 yard per return average
  • Ran a 4.41 at the Combine and can join Hurts as he squats 600 lbs.

Thanks for reading and if you aren’t already, please follow us at @PhillyCvrCorner, @PhillyEagleNews, and @GregHartPA

An Eagles All-Defense Mock Draft to Make Sean Desai Happy

With Sean Desai officially announced as the Eagles defensive coordinator, things are a bit clearer on what the 2023 defense should look like. We know Desai’s Fangio-lineage so for those that were hoping for a sharp turn and a more aggressive, blitzing defense, sorry to say Desai is going to provide good continuity with what Gannon played. And that isn’t bad – containing explosive plays is the right defensive structure.

But there will be differences, which likely will be:

  • More pre-snap motion and disguise
  • More physicality in coverage (press, re-routing)
  • More dime coverage
  • More variability in where defensive fronts align and attack from, more stunts and overloads

Don’t take some of the above to an extreme. For example, on dime coverage, Desai will likely play more dime relative to Gannon who openly declared Philly as “not a dime defense”. But the Bears and Seahawks were both around middle of the league in dime personnel.

And do not mistake physicality and press in coverage as meaning more man – if anything, Desai played a higher rate of zone-based coverages than Gannon did.

But if you do believe the above differences are true, there are certain types of players that make more sense. For corners, just look back at Seattle’s 2022 draft where they doubled-up on corners with Coby Bryant and Tariq Woolen. The things they have in common? Physical, good ball skills, willing run defenders. For DL, an ability to pressure the QB without blitzing and athleticism to vary rushes.

And that brings me to an all-Desai mock – I’m using the PFF Simulator for this:

Pick 1-10: Devon Witherspoon, CB

PFF surprisingly had Devon available with only Gonzalez going to Detroit, so of course I’m going to take Devon for Desai. Here’s why:

  • Inside / outside versatility with over 100 slot snaps this year
  • Played the most man coverage in this class but he is an even better zone corner (if you have other CBs ahead of him, that is fine but there is no way Devon isn’t a top 3 zone corner)
  • Elite press corner, giving up 1 yard in 119 snaps
  • If you want physical at the line, at the catch point, and in run defense, Devon is your guy

This is a terrible DPI call but shows Devon’s physicality and ability to disrupt routes

Come April 27, I think both Gonzalez and Devon will be taken ahead of the Eagles pick. Howie could trade up if he really wanted but if they were both gone, here are other options for Desai:

  • Trade down – probably the best option as next options are reaches at 10 in my view (Emmanuel Forbes, Myles Murphy, Lukas Van Ness) or not the best Eagles scheme fits (Joey Porter Jr.)
  • Nolan Smith – He’s the one I would take if not a corner, absolutely love Nolan, highly athletic and generates as much pressure as anybody in this class on top of his elite run defense. The number of DL prospects with at least a 20% run stop and 30% win rate? One, just Nolan this year.
  • Calijah Kancey – interesting fit for Desai with his athleticism and ability to rush from any spot on the line

Trade: There’s going to be a trade somewhere and here I have Howie trading back with the Raiders who, with three 4th round picks, jump ahead of Pittsburgh and Indy to take OT Anton Harrison
PHI sends 1-30 for LV’s 2-38, 4-143, and 4-146

Pick 2-38: Keeanu Benton, DT

The first pick was easy, now it gets interesting. Most have Benton as a round 3 guy but he’s my DT3 and people forget that DTs that can rush the passer get drafted heavier than expected. The Eagles showed the value of having Suh and Joseph to rotate with Jordan Davis. Fangio defenses all bring in NTs – Benton is another guy for Desai and has flexibility beyond NT:

  • Athletic and powerful and may be more effective when on the move and stunting which will be a bigger part of the Eagles’ front
  • Versatility that could fill in at NT and play out to 4i
  • One of the few DTs in this class with a pressure and run stop rate above 12%
  • Only 21 years of age, has shown growth each year with more ahead of him

A to Z Sports Films has a good set of clips here that I pulled a few from – here in the first couple, Benton is going against John Michael-Schmitz. Shows his versatility across the line.

Other options I considered:

  • Emmanuel Forbes – Doubling up on CB was an option, Forbes, like Devon, is also exactly the type of corner Desai will want
  • Felix Anudike-Uzomah – one of the few EDGEs productive against the run and pass, he is constantly disruptive
  • Kancey, Tyrique Stevenson, Cam Smith all went in the 20s

Pick 2-62: Derick Hall, EDGE

Last year Seattle double-doubled on defense, taking two corners and two EDGEs. They needed it, finishing 30th in pass rush. And here I’m adding another on the line for Desai:

  • Great length, first-step explosiveness and power
  • Effective edge-setter
  • The Eagles love leaders – Hall is a team captain and great locker room guy

Other options:

  • Doubling up on CB here with Garrett Williams who I love, but recovering from his torn ACL so will pass on him at 62
  • EDGEs Karl Brooks, Adetomiwa Adebawore

Pick 3-94: Sydney Brown, SAF

We saw the value of CJGJ and if Desai is going to rotate coverages more, a versatile defender like Brown fits. And I absolutely love pairing two defensive backs from Illinois, one of the most aggressive, dynamic, and productive college secondaries:

  • Highest graded man coverage safety
  • Versatile, playing over 1,300 snaps in the box and over 700 each in the slot and deep safety
  • Effective vs. tight ends in matchups
  • Physical in coverage (notice a pattern here)

Other options:

  • LBs Demarvion Overshown and Nick Herbig, both good coverage LBs
  • EDGEs Dylan Horton and Colby Wooden

Pick 4-143: Rejzohn Wright, CB

Everybody looks to Julius Brents as this year’s Tariq Woolen with this size and athletic profile, but don’t forget about Rejzohn. Rejzohn matches what Seattle looked for last year and how Desai wants his corners to play:

  • While not quite matching Woolen, he’s long and fast, 6’2″ 200 with an expected 40 in the 4.3s
  • Every draft profile of his will include “highly competitive” and “skilled at press and disrupting route timing”

Showing his physicality against Jordan Addison, where he held Addison to one catch.

Pick 4-146: Dorian Williams, LB

I passed on linebacker above and will add one of my favorites here:

  • Highly athletic with good length but undersized
  • Can stay attached in coverage downfield

Other options at 143 and 146:

  • EDGE Karl Brooks and DT Moro Ojomo
  • SAF Quindell Johnson

Pick 7-221: Devonnsha Maxwell, DT

Last year, Cole Strange was drafted out of Chattanooga and this year, Devonnsha will be as well. @JonM_Salter turned me on to Devonnsha – he’s hard to find film on, but what you see you will like:

  • High motor
  • Highly productive, 3rd highest graded FCS with 9 sacks including 2 vs Illinois, and 36 run stops
  • Projects as a DE in Eagles scheme

Come draft day, I expect Devonnsha to go quite a bit higher but I’m taking him here.

Pick 7-250: Jay Ward, SAF

A corner at LSU, Ward will likely play safety in the NFL but has flexibility like Sydney Brown above. And continuing the theme, he brings aggressiveness:

  • Long with good ball skills
  • Another versatile defender that plays everywhere with over 400 career snaps at corner and safety, 500 in the slot, and 300 in the box
  • Confident and aggressive

Of course, an all-defense mock is unrealistic, but these are types of players the Eagles, and Desai, would want across rounds.

Thanks for reading and if you aren’t already, please follow us at @PhillyCvrCorner, @PhillyEagleNews, and @GregHartPA

2023 NFL Draft: Ranking the top 10 cornerback prospects

1-Devon Witherspoon

Devon is fluid, aggressive, rangy, energetic, and plays with an attitude, what more could you want?

Devon is listed as 6’1 180 lbs, and while he may need to add a few pounds, it should not come to the detriment of his ability to cover vertical routes. 

He plays the ball and the QB with his eyes and is always reading and diagnosing the play. 

His off-coverage play is elite and looks to be the best in this class. 

Witherspoon is also a big tackler, and at times too aggressive. Regardless, he is one of the best corners vs the run. He hits like a safety. 

Subtle is not a word I would use to describe him, he chooses violence in every play. 

It was basically a toss-up between Devon and my #2 ranked CB, Christian Gonzalez.

Devon has swagger, confidence, and the attitude I love to see from the position, so I chose Witherspoon.

When you put on the tape, his play will jump out the screen, and if you look up the numbers from 2022, 92.6 coverage (ranked first in FBS) while not allowing a TD. 3 picks, 14 pass breakups, and a QB rating of 24.6 when targeted. 

For me, he is CB 1!

2- Christian Gonzalez

Gonzalez is tall, patient, and instinctive, while also possessing above-average ball skills. 

But, he is from Oregon, so as an Eagles fan, NEXT! 

Just kidding.

Christian is a cool customer who never appears to panic on the field when he misses an assignment, but he rarely does. 

While playing zone defense he has the self-awareness to abandon post once he realizes nobody is entering his portion of the field. 

He is also extremely effective in press coverage and uses his size and strength to eliminate separation. He had 4 interceptions in 2022. 

Watching the tape from the first few games to the second half of the season, it is apparent how much he improved over the course of the season. 

His 6’2 200 lb frame will be in demand. 

He should be a top 15 draft selection and will make a franchise very happy.

Notes watching the film:

Fast, great size, strength, athletic, sticky, he doesn’t give up separation, great footwork, elite straight-line speed, INSTINCTS!

3- Emmanuel Forbes:

Mississippi State CB Emmanuel Forbes is someone the Eagles may like. He has great hands(former wide receiver), and excels in both man and off-coverage. 

Forbes is also battle-tested, as he played against very good talent most every week. 

Some scouts have mentioned his thin frame and weight as a negative, but it has not hindered him from being a playmaker. He returned 3 of his 6 interceptions for a touchdown this past season, which is an FBS record. 

He mirrors his opponent while in man and possesses the speed to not get beat on vertical routes. 

Emmanuel displayed his outstanding ball skills as evidenced by his 14 picks in 3 seasons (35 games), with 6 returned for a TD. 

He will be scrutinized at the combine due to his size, but the only thing he needs to improve upon via the tape is tackling, but he is not shy about getting in on them.

4- Cam Smith

Cam has outstanding range and uses his lanky frame to the best of his ability. 

He picked off three passes, broke up 11 more, and finished with an 89.7 PFF coverage grade. 

While playing zone, it is almost impossible to get the ball by him.  

A solid if not above-average tackler, he is always willing to mix it up. 

Looks back at the ball while competing with the receiver, which should negate a few PI flags in the pros, and translate really well.  

You can line him up vs the X, and set it and forget it.

Philly would also appreciate his honesty, he tells it like it is.

Film Notes:

Great balance and physical. 

5- Deonte Banks

Banks is another prototypical cornerback prospect, with good size, height, and strength. He is also very competitive, which I love to see in a DB.

He is adequately smooth and fluid while having to change direction, but his game is making the receivers change their direction. While in press coverage you can routinely see him jamming and pushing opposing receivers off their routes.

He is physical, tough, and a reliable tackler.

Much like JPJ a couple of spots higher, the lack of turnovers is a concern, but he does have playmaking ability.

Banks had two interceptions in four seasons and showed improvement year over a year earning an 81.4 coverage grade in 2022 while allowing 258 passing yards allowed on 360 coverage snaps.

More than some of the other corners on this list, how Deonte performs at the combine will go a long way toward how high or low he goes in the draft. 

6- Tyrique Stevenson (Miami)

Big outside corner who plays with good speed and a whole lot of violence and aggression. 

He is a fighter, which in certain instances has worked against him. 

As you watch the tape you see his explosive personality immediately. You can also see the skills including his jumping ability, which was not surprising considering he had a 37.7″ vertical jump in High School 

Tyrique is a guy who plays 100% trusting his instincts, and those instincts create a lot of big plays, but it also comes with some risks. His speed allows him to make up for a lot of those decisions that could lead to big plays, but not all. 

An example of when his speed does recover. 

He is extremely physical at the line and at times a little grabby but that can easily be cleaned up and will need to be for him to be successful in the nfl. 

He is also a very good blitzer when his number is called. 

The upside is clear. He could be a bit of a risky pick because if he doesn’t clean up some of his risk taking, the floor could be low. But if he gets the coaching to play to his full potential, his ceiling is as high as anyone else in this class. 

I can see from watching a few games that he likes to talk to his opponent, a lot! Stevenson would be the first player in a decade to give BG a run for his money for who talks the most on the defense. 

If everything went well, Tyrique could be a fan favorite in Philly.

I know I am on an island by myself with Tyrique at 5, but I was on one last year with Tariq Woolen as well. 

Who knows, maybe in a couple of seasons it will be referred to as Tyrique Island. 

I know I have to do a little more convincing with this choice, so he gets 4 clips.

He comes up big, in BIG moments. 

7- Joey Porter Jr

If Tyrique is the player I am most bullish on that most aren’t, then Porter or Ringo are the players I am most concerned about that a lot of people have as one of their top corners. 

At 6-foot-2, 205 pounds, JPJ has the size, speed, and length you love to see in a corner. He doesn’t play with the same aggression as Tyrique or, even like his father did, but that isn’t necessarily and bad thing. His cool smooth strides are an asset, especially when in off-coverage where he uses those cool long strides to close fast! In addition, he has long arms that work well in that set too. He uses them to force difficult catches for the receiver and to create a lot of drops by poking and swatting at the ball. 

He is a decent tackler and a willing one against the run too, but it is not his primary instinct to engage. 

The biggest concern for me is that despite all of these attributes, Joey has one career interception and no forced fumbles.

8- Kelee Ringo

Strong and long. 

Kelee knocks receivers at the line and has a good burst and closing speed. 

Ringo has also shown a flair for the big moment when he came up with a game-sealing interception in the College National Championship game vs Alabama.

He utilizes his size and strength well and is also a very good tackler.

Kelee has displayed the ability to cover tight ends.

He showed some difficulty last year with ball skills and gave up a few shot plays down the field. Ringo will be watched closely at the combine regarding that. 

The tape shows that he has some issues covering slant routes as well.

Kelee had 4 picks during his 29 games for the Bulldogs.

He may go in the first round, but he looks more like a day 2 guy to me.

9- Julius Brents (Kansas State)

At 6-foot-3, 202 pounds, Julius is long and physically reminds me a little of former Eagles CB Bobby Taylor.

He is part of the new-wave DBs that are interchangeable between CB and S. 

At 23, he is a tad older than most on the list, but with the age comes experience. 

He reeled in 4 picks last year, so he does have the play-making ability. 

Brents will not be for everyone, but he should find a home sometime later on day 2. 

Film Notes:

Looks to be susceptible to the deep ball and large chunk plays, some due to trouble in press corner situations. Great in the zone, and in the running game. Fluid, Big, strong, and loose. I like him a lot, but his success may rely on what scheme he is playing in more than some others listed here. 

10- Clark Phillips III (Utah)

A little undersized at 5’10 183, he may find his role in the NFL as a slot corner.

Despite a smaller stature, don’t let it fool you, he had 6 picks and 7 forced incompletions this past season.

He does a great job reading the QBs eyes and inviting them to throw at his receiver so he can jump the route.

Clark had an 83.7 coverage grade in addition to those turnovers.

The picks and forced incompletions are hard to overlook as he has a knack for displaying his playmaking ability. 

I love a CB who causes game-changing turnovers.

Just missed the list– Kyu Blu Kelly

Kyu, which rhymes with bayou, is a physical, press corner who uses the sidelines well to his advantage. 

He has good size at 6’1, but some teams may shy away from him for being slightly underweight at 188 lbs, despite being very strong and muscular. 

 Much like Tyrique, Kyu does a great job mirroring his opponent and utilizing his quick feet. He plays with confidence while in man which is a trait that is needed for his position, but does not exude that same swagger in off-coverage schemes. 

Kyu does not look to have elite catch-up speed when he takes a bad first step, but when he sticks with the wideout he gets his head around and forces a lot of PBU with a strong, physical play on the ball. 

He will need to improve both his recognition and willingness to tackle runners, especially on screens, to have a long career in the NFL. 

He finished college with 3 interceptions and one touchdown. 

Kelly is just outside my top 10, but with his bloodlines, you never know if someone takes a chance earlier. 

Kyu’s father is former NFL CB Brian Kelly, who played 11 seasons in the NFL from 1998–2007. Most with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. 

Bonus- Storm Duck- North Carolina

He wins my “Great name” to watch award. 

Someone should take a chance with him for his name alone when he enters the draft.

As Always, Thank You for reading!

Follow me @PHLEagleNews

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Follow Greg @GregHartPA

David

3/2/23

Will the Eagles Actually, Finally Draft a Cornerback? Inside the Mind of Howie Roseman

One of the questions I get most is “will the Eagles actually draft a corner high this year?”

I have no idea.

The Eagles’, and Howie’s, history on the cornerback position is something I’ve thought about a ton. It’s not simple like the positional value he puts on the lines (high) or running backs and linebackers (low) where he is very open about his philosophy and does exactly what he says. Corner is different.

So here I’m going to dig into their history and try to get inside Howie’s mind.

The Eagles don’t draft corners

We all know they haven’t. No matter how you look at it, the Eagles rank near the bottom of the league in drafting corners.

  • 22nd in the league draft capital used over Howie’s tenure, 32nd over the past 5 years and 31st over the past 3
  • 13th in number of picks used on CBs since 2010, but still 30th in picks used over the past 5 years

Only twice since 2010 have the Eagles used more draft capital than league average and one of those years was 2015 when Chip Kelly was GM. The only “Howie year”, and the only time they actually went after corners in the draft, was 2017 when he doubled up with Sidney Jones in the 2nd and Rasul Douglas in the 3rd.

Now the real question is why…

I asked @TheHonestNFL if Howie didn’t draft CBs for some reason and he pointed more towards how past boards have fallen, not a philosophy on not drafting them.

More on this in a minute…

And when they do draft CBs, they haven’t been good

Of the 13 picks (10 of which were Howie’s), Avonte Maddox and Jalen Mills are the only two corners you would say were even good picks. Rasul probably deserves to be included, but was misused here and most of his good playing time was outside of Philly.

The only time Howie used a high pick was obviously Sidney Jones when his pre-draft Achilles injury made him look like a great value in the 2nd. Here is Howie’s explanation of the pick:

“Sidney Jones, when we started this process, was one of the guys that we were talking about with the 14th pick in the draft in our first stack of players.As we looked at it, great character, great player. Obviously, the injury is a factor here.”

Ignore the results, it is the thinking and philosophy on the position that matters and shows Howie does view it as a round 1 position.

Corner is the hardest position to draft

In Howie’s defense, corner is tough.

I’ve written several times on this before – CB has the highest bust rate in round 1 of any position, including QB. And in a bit of “damned if you do, damned if you don’t”, it is also the position where you have to take it high – it has one of the lowest hit rates later in the draft.

Below shows the hit and miss rates for each position for the first two rounds:

Draft hits and misses by position

There’s no way Howie doesn’t know this. I’ve wondered if this is part of his calculus in valuing CB (and hesitancy in taking CBs high) in the draft. We can’t get in his head and I have never seen him actually speak to this, but if you take what TheHonestNFL says above, it could really be that they just haven’t had a corner as BPA at their picks.

It’s hard to go back and say Howie should have done anything different

With the benefit of hindsight, should Howie have addressed corner in the draft these past 5 years? Below are the Eagles round 1 and 2 picks over the past 5 years with the next available corners:

YearRound 1 Round 2
2022

13 – Jordan Davis
21 – Trent McDuffie
23 – Kaiir Elam		51 – Cam Jurgens
60 – Cam Taylor-Britt
2021


10 – DeVonta Smith
22 – Caleb Farley
26 – Greg Newsome II
37 – Landon Dickerson
40 – Richie Grant
44 – Kelvin Joseph
47 – Asante Samuel Jr.
2020

21 – Jalen Reagor
30 – Noah Igbinoghene
31 – Jeff Gladney		53 – Jalen Hurts
61 – Kristian Fulton
2019


22- Andre Dillard
30 – Deandre Baker

53 – Miles Sanders
57 – JJ Arcega Whiteside
79 – David Long
83 – Justin Layne
2018


None
49 – Dallas Goedert
53 – M.J. Stewart
55 – Donte Jackson
201714 – Derek Barnett
16 – Marlon Humphrey
18 – Adoree’ Jackson		43 – Sidney Jones

The past 3 years, Howie was absolutely targeting Jordan Davis and wide receivers so it probably doesn’t matter which CB was available. But even then, it’s hard to say Howie missed on anybody. I loved McDuffie last year but they needed Davis. The only pick in the past 5 years you would go back and take is Marlon Humphrey over Derek Barnett. But at the time, this wasn’t an egregious miss-pick.

Looking at the 2nd round picks, it’s the same story. Asante, Donte Jackson, and Cam Taylor-Britt would have been nice picks but not over who Howie took.

The corners that teams would really want in these prior classes are (1) a small list of names and (2) almost all went ahead of the Eagles picks. Sauce and Stingley, Surtain and Horn, Denzel Ward and Jaire Alexander, Marshon Lattimore. The list of 80th percentile corners since 2017 taken after round 1? It’s one name – Tariq Woolen.

But they also don’t ignore cornerback

Unlike linebacker, running back, and safety (although that may be changing), the Eagles do invest in cornerback. It is, however, usually through free agency and trades. And this has been even more true recently:

Eagles cornerback free agent and trade acquisitions

Howie has not signed at the top end of free agency
This is true for Howie at all positions really. The only time he made a splash was the disastrous signing of Nnamdi early in his GM career… apparently never to be repeated.

He has depended on one-year deals lately
For the past 3 years, and again in 2023, Howie has depended upon finding a new starting corner and done so on a one-year deal, Sometimes this worked (Bradberry and Nelson) and sometimes it hasn’t (Robey-Coleman).

He brings in a LOT of guys
Another thing that sticks out is Howie acquires a ton of guys hoping one hits. Since 2016, he is averaging near 5 CBs a year with a lot of “cheap but upside” guys like Tay, Jobe, Goodrich, Vincent, and others.

Outside of the 2017 run, the Eagles have depended on free agents and trades

The only years where the Eagles got over half their cornerback snaps from drafted players was the 2017-2019 stretch when they had Avonte Maddox, Jalen Mills, and Rasul Douglas all playing meaningful snaps.

Eagles CB snaps by draft picks or acquisitions

Just as a comparison since it is still fresh in all of our minds, Kansas City not only won the Super Bowl with rookies, but 98% of their 2022 cornerback snaps were from their own drafted players.

Teams can win in multiple ways and this isn’t to say what the Eagles are doing is wrong – it is just what it is. But the Eagles have also lacked stability in their secondary.

Below shows the top 3 CBs by snap counts each year and their pass defense rank by DVOA – names in red are new from the prior year.

Eagles starting CBs with DVOA and spend ranks

Only 2014 did the Eagles return the same starting three CBs (and it wasn’t a good defense). They have also generally had a middle of the league pass defense with a top-10 defense three times – 2016, 2017, and 2022. What do some of those years have in common…?

So what does this all mean for 2023?

To recap:

  • Besides one failed attempt in 2017, Howie has not drafted CBs
  • Looking back, he made the right decision as the CBs available at their picks have largely been bad
  • To get good CBs in the draft, you must draft them high and even then, CBs are the hardest position to hit on
  • With the exception of Nnamdi, he instead has signed affordable free agents options
  • Recently he has also loaded up on low-cost “lottery tickets” with UDFAs and trades – time will tell is a Josh Jobe works out
  • They’ve generally had a middle of the league secondary in performance and cost but their best years were with top secondaries

What is interesting is where the Eagles sit right now is unlike where they have been before in Howie’s tenure.

They are about to pay a QB
The only time in Howie’s tenure they’ve had to pay a QB over 10% of the cap was 2010-2011 with Vick. Add in 2021 for Wentz – although Wentz’s contract never hit above 10% of the cap, the $33.8M dead cap hit in 2021 was a massive cap hit.

The CB room is getting expensive
The highest ranked the Eagles have been in the league in spend on CBs is 10th in 2014 and 13th this past season. In 2023 they are slotted to be 1st and that is without Bradberry.

The Eagles may actually be in a position to get a top CB this year
Howie has picked high several times – pick 4 in 2013 when they took Lane Johnson, the trade up to pick 2 in 2016 for Wentz, pick 10 in 2020 when they took DeVonta. But they haven’t really had a corner as BPA in any draft and haven’t reached.

Does this mean they will draft a corner?

They absolutely have a need to cheapen the CB room but this is a multi-year issue, not really a 2023 issue. Yes, Hurts will be paid but they still have one cheap year and will fully utilize the length of that contract. Slay is very expensive but his contract ends in 2023 (with some future money). Howie, maybe to a fault, does not go into a season depending on a rookie to fill a critical spot (except DeVonta and Reagor).

So, yes, they could draft a corner. I don’t believe just because Howie hasn’t taken one means he is philosophically opposed to it. But their positional need and financial situation will not force Howie to take one, especially if he has to reach. And especially if he thinks they have a window to win now.

What would I do and what do I think is a likely scenario? I always mock corners and have wanted Gonzalez or Witherspoon for months. But I increasingly think the most likely scenario is they miss out again.

What if this is where the first 10 picks go?

QBs didn’t fly off the board and both CBs are gone. Is Howie going to reach for JPJ or Cam Smith? Neither of them is anywhere near a top-10 pick. Do they take DL? I would love Tyree Wilson who can play inside and out but he will likely be gone… I love Nolan Smith, more than most, and would consider him there… I don’t see Van Ness, Myles Murphy, or Bresee as top-10 picks.

If the above happened, I would first look to trade back and still get a player like Emmanuel Forbes, BJ Ojulari, Dawand Jones, Anton Harrison, or Darnell Wright. But if I had to pick here with that board, it would absolutely be a tackle.

And I think, despite what we all want, that is where Howie will look. It’s a position of value high in the 1st, it is likely BPA, and it fills a need. Future need to replace Lane aside, Seumalo will be gone which means Driscoll likely takes his spot leaving them with backup tackle.

So will Howie take a corner? If you look at history, it isn’t an easy yes or no – it depends on how the picks ahead of them go. He could look to later picks to take one. And if Howie takes a CB, even if somehow Gonzalez or Devon falls to them, with sights set on the Super Bowl, he is going to bring somebody else in and not depend on a rookie.

Yesterday David posted a lot of this same information, raising the possibility on Howie going after Jalen Ramsey. Is it likely? Probably not. I (irrationally) hate giving up picks and he wants an extension that could be problematic. Howie hasn’t gone to the top end of the trade and free agency market often.

But is it crazy? Also no if you think about loading up for another Super Bowl run. With Slay’s contract ending in a year and Hurts still cheap, they could make it work if they wanted. Again, not likely but not crazy and, depending on cost, it does fit with how Howie has approached the position. Even if he drafts a top CB, he will most definitely have a veteran as well.

Thanks for reading and if you aren’t already, please follow us at @PhillyCvrCorner, @PhillyEagleNews, and @GregHartPA

Half of the Draft’s 1st Round is Wrong Every Year

I’m here to tell you not to stress if people disagree with your mocks. And not to care if somebody gives you an “lol” on a pick they think is a reach. You know why?

Almost half of the 1st round is wrong

Of course every team is trying to find the next 1st round All-Pro but hit rates remain tough, even in the 1st.

The draft is really about finding the top 50-60 value players, give or take. After that, players are borderline starters at best or complete misses at worst. Here they are 40th percentile and lower players, players like Jalen Reagor, Rasul Douglas, and Vaitai.

To show the difficulty in hitting, here are how many top-32 and top-50 players are drafted in each round.

R1R2R3R4R5R6R7
Top 32 players15.17.44.52.51.61.00.9
Top 50 players20.012.07.64.83.42.31.9
2000-2020, excluding the 2021-2022 as valuation is erratic early in careers

Think about that. Year in and year out, 38% (or 12 players) in the 1st round aren’t even top-50 players in the league. It gets worse as you look at the first two rounds with 50% of players being outside the top-50.

And many of these players don’t miss by a little – one of every six 1st round picks and one out of almost every four picks in the 2nd is a total miss, landing outside the top 100 players.

Some of these are largely due to injury, like OT Mekhi Becton, pick 11 in 2020. Many are just misses. Tampa’s pick of O.J. Howard… John Ross, pick 9 in 2017 by the Bengals, one spot before Patrick Mahomes… every round 1 pick by the Raiders.

And don’t dismiss it as “that’s just the poor drafting teams”. Minnesota, New England, and Dallas were three of the best drafting teams since 2015 and each had misses in the 1st with Jeff Gladney, Laquon Treadwell, N’Keal Harry, and Taco Charlton.

It’s unavoidable to have draft misses.

Where do the top-50 players come from?

While hit rates are low after the first couple of rounds, there are still more top players found late than most realize.

  • 40% of the top-50 players are found after the 2nd round
  • 20% are found on day 3

When in doubt, draft the interior lines
The interior offensive and defensive lines have the most top-50 players drafted late and the best hit rates. Tackles and safeties are also next best.
Examples: Jamaree Salyer, Trey Smith, Orlando Brown Jr., Terron Armstead, David Bakhtiari, Sebastian Joseph-Day

The premium positions are worst – find them early
Yes, everybody points to Tariq Woolen and Tyreek Hill, but it’s not a good plan to depend on late picks to find QBs, WRs, or CBs. They have hit rates well below average. EDGE is slightly better but still low.
Examples: Diontae Johnson, Quandre Diggs, Dak Prescott

Most are still from the big schools… but not all
Since 2010, over 80% of the top-50 players found on day 3 were from the major programs – the top 5 schools (Iowa, Wisconsin, UGA, Arkansas, and Clemson) account for 20% of the total by themselves. But another 20% come from non-major programs, schools like Louisiana Tech, Central Florida, Coastal Carolina, Delaware, Grand Valley State, and several others.
Examples: L’Jarius Sneed, Xavier Woods, Gabriel Davis, Latavius Murray, Cooper Kupp, Matt Judon, JC Tretter, Maxx Crosby

My guys I am reaching down the board for…

The next mock you do, maybe reach deeper down the big boards. Trust your opinion if you like a player’s film. Remember – if you are just following somebody’s big board, a big chunk of your first round is likely going to be wrong.

How am I thinking about the 2023 draft and who are players that won’t be in the first round but in a few years, I think we could be looking back at as top players? Here are some guys I like thinking about how past drafts have unfolded:

Players just outside the 1st
(that shouldn’t be)		EDGE Fleix Anudike-Uzomah
WR Marvin Mims
CB Emmanuel Forbes
“Just the trenches”OT Wanya Morris
DT Moro Ojomo
Day 3 gems LB Dorian Williams
SAF Quindell Johnson
Small school guys that could
surprise		DT Karl Brooks
OC/OG Jake Andrews

Players from outside the 1st:

These are the one-third of day 2 guys that I see having much higher potential

EDGE Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Kansas St – I’ve written on him several times and still think he ultimately goes R1, but today he is slotted as a day two guy so I am including him. One of only four prospects with a win rate above 30% and run stop rate above 13%. He’s constantly disruptive.

WR Marvin Mims, Oklahoma – He has all the things you look for that point to NFL success. Broke out at just 18 years old, a top Y/RR, has the 2nd best YAC/rec in this class, and is one of the better deep threats in this class. Knocked for his size and probable slot role in the pros, he could stand out in an open WR class.

CB Emmanuel Forbes, Miss St – Another guy I have written about plenty and I have him over several other CBs ahead of him. He’s one of the top man corners in this class, has the best run stop rate, and oh, by the way, 14 career interceptions on only 191 targets. I usually dismiss interceptions as they are not stable year-to-year, but when you have 6, 3, and 5 over three seasons, maybe you don’t dismiss it.

“Just pick the trenches” guys:

As mentioned above, historically the lines are the best places to look for overachievers so that’s where I am going here

OT Wanya Morris, Oklahoma – Overshadowed by LT Anton Harrison, he has all the athletic traits you want and handled future pros like Dylan Horton and Derick Hall at the Senior Bowl.

DT Moro Ojomo, Texas – He’s not going to stand out on measurables but he’s one of the players I love because he is the type of player you want on your team. An outspoken leader, he’s a technician with great hands, brings solid run stopping value and pass rushing upside.

Day 3 gems:

Chances are lower here, but each year there are still around 10 picks on day 3 that end up being gems.

LB Dorian Williams, Tulane – A bit smaller and buried with an EDP in the 160s, he is a flexible LB that matches what many teams want. He has surprising coverage ability downfield, can tackle, and one of the better pass rushers in this class.

SAF Quindell Johnson, Memphis – Memphis has been a feeder program to the NFL recently and has 14 picks since 2015 and several top RBs, but no standouts in the secondary. Quindell could change that. He has good size, will run well, and has one of the better PBU rates in this safety class.

Small school guys that could surprise:

DT Karl Brooks, Bowling Green – Played out of position on the edge and snubbed at the Combine, he had 12 sacks and 47 pressures this year and showed his power at the Senior Bowl

OC/OG Jake Andrews, Troy – Athletic with good size, versatility on the line and has the nastiness you want. Showed some good reps against Keion White and Keeanu Benton at the Senior Bowl

Thanks for reading and if you aren’t already, please follow us at @PhillyCvrCorner, @PhillyEagleNews, and @GregHartPA

Additional data:

Including detail on the average number of top-50 players by position and round in case anybody wanted it:

R1R2R3R4R5R6R7Total by
Position
IOL1.71.61.40.70.40.70.47.0
T2.51.30.90.50.30.20.25.8
WR2.21.61.00.20.30.10.25.7
IDL2.30.81.00.50.50.20.35.6
ED2.80.90.60.70.50.10.05.5
LB1.61.50.70.50.50.20.15.3
CB2.01.30.40.40.30.00.14.7
SAF1.01.40.60.30.40.30.24.2
RB1.51.00.60.50.20.20.24.2
QB2.00.30.20.20.00.20.13.0
TE0.50.30.20.00.10.00.01.1
Total by Round20.012.07.64.83.42.31.9