Tennessee CB Kamal Hadden was having a breakout 2023 season as one of the best CBs in the SEC. At best with the play in front of him, this under-the-radar CB has interesting traits as a mid-rounds pick. Read more
When looking at a running back's ability to create on their own, guys like Dameon Pierce, De'Von Achane, and Jahmyr Gibbs popped the last two drafts. Here's a look at the RBs in this class and who we should look to in the draft. Read more
A look at four themed mocks: a classic Howie draft, the exact opposite of what Howie would do, the fastest guys draft, and what the people want. Which would you choose? Read more
Doubling up on a position in the draft can turn a unit around in a hurry. And it happens more often than you may think. Here are 5 double-ups I would love to see in the 2024 draft. Read more
Texas Longhorn Byron Murphy II is a top DT in this class and expect him to be a riser leading up the draft. The Eagles, always looking at the lines, should be interested in him. Read more
A full Eagles 2024 offseason mock where I try to fix the linebacker issue, turn over the cornerbacks, add some offensive weapons, and make some long-term decisions. Read more
Just a month ago, the Eagles red zone offense was a major concern, dominating most headlines. Since then? They are the best in the league and on a tear that has come at the perfect time. Read more
Jalen Hurts is hitting some of the most tough-to-complete passes in the biggest situations. These are rare passes, but he is making them a regular occurrence. A look at how he stacks up. Read more
It's never too early to start looking at draft prospects that could fit the Eagles. Here are three - Edge Princely Umanmielen, CB TJ Tampa, and RB Jaylen Wright - that I think aren't talked about enough by the draft community. Read more
An aggressive, playmaking corner with traits to stay with receivers but at his best with the play in front of him and in zone
6’1″ 197 pounds and expected sub-4.5 speed
7.0 passer rating allowed, 6 PBUs and 3 interceptions on 33 targets in 2023
Still underrated – broke out in 2023 as one of the SEC’s best CBs, but an injury shortened his season
Expected draft position – early day 3
Kamal, currently projected as an early day 3 pick (I have him with a R3 grade), is one of the best upside cornerbacks in this class. An injury in the Alabama game ended his breakout 2023 season early, but he has outside corner traits and talent if used in the right scheme:
An aggressive playmaking corner with the mentality and finger-wagging, forget-the-last-play swagger you want
Size and speed, listed at 6’1″ and 197lbs with a projected forty in the upper 4.4s (although I don’t think he looks quite as big on field as his measurements)
Athletic enough to play man and stick with receivers, but at his best with the play in front of him or in zone
Played little press so there isn’t a ton of film there but this was more Tennessee’s scheme than his limitation – in clips you will see, he’s effective staying with receivers but he doesn’t get his head turned around consistently
Gets his hands on the ball at one of the best rates – his 18% forced incompletion rate and 8 interceptions over the past two seasons (6% interception rate) are both one of the best in recent drafts
Gives up extremely little, holding receivers to a 36% reception rate (behind only Eli Ricks and Devon Witherspoon last year), 2.9 yards per target and only 1.7 average yards after catch
One of the better corners covering big receivers with good film against 6’6″ 240lb TE Jake Johnson, 6’4″ 220lb WR Malachi Fields, and 6’1″ 220lb Xavier Legette, who all had some of their worst games against Tennessee with Hadden covering them
Tackling has been an issue but is improved after a disastrous and eye-opening game against Florida early this season
Film clips
These clips summarize his coverage – you will see his effectiveness and closing speed in off coverage. In press, he stays with receivers but often doesn’t turn back to the ball, he will get flags in the NFL. But he will also make plays on the ball – a lot of Tennessee critics will say he had a lot of easy interceptions, and some were like the one on Spencer Rattler below, but he also has the tip to himself against Texas A&M to seal the game.
(Apologies for the broadcast copy as Hadden is so under-the-radar that all-22 film isn’t out yet…)
Draft fit
Like past high-upside CBs Howie has looked to add to the secondary, Hadden is another guy whose traits and upside are better than his expected draft position. He has limitations but, if used to his skillsets, he could be well worth a mid-round pick.
Top 10 Wide Receivers, 2024 NFL Draft
The Receivers:
10- Adonai Mitchell, Texas
6’4 195
All he does is catch 1st downs! Adonai is a vertical and sideline threat. A Georgia transfer who may fall some in the draft due to only having 1 year of elite play on film and sustaining a few injuries. Mitchell uses his size to create space and relies on an above-average ball-tracking ability and his very strong hands to reel them in. Without a lot of speed, he relies on those traits to create space and windows for the QB. He is a very strong runner once the ball is in his hands and is rarely caught from behind.
Texas’ Adonai Mitchell showing some great pacing and fluidity on this route to get wide open. Tracks it perfectly too.
Legette has the size teams desire and the combination of speed to boot, which will catapult him into one of the top 10 WRs off the board. Xavier was very good at planting his feet, but not as quick to change direction. His ability to break routes showcases his agility and body control and he uses his strong hands to fight for balls that end up in his chest more often than not. Most of his production came this past season as a 23-year-old playing against younger competition. He was consistent and always in the game plan. He averaged over 5 catches per game.
Xavier Leggette may be the fastest man alive based on this touchdown catch and run pic.twitter.com/R34Fn9TQ82
Franklin has good speed which demands respect and enables him to create separation and be a reliable vertical threat. He is also a smooth receiver who can play inside or outside. He has shown elite on-field awareness, especially on the sidelines with his footwork. Troy has proven to be a durable and tough guy despite his thinner frame, something the Eagles are not scared to invest in.
Would seem to be a great fit for a team that utilizes the spread offense more frequently which would showcase his skill set. He will not be for everyone. Will need to be schemed to get open consistently. Works best in the middle of the field. He is one of the younger receivers in the class.
Xavier is one of the fastest receivers in the draft. He became more of a downfield threat this season and has proven to be a big YAC guy. He also runs very clean routes. Some will shy away from him in the draft due to his size, but teams like the Eagles have already proven they are willing to gamble on talent, DeVonta Smith, for players with similar builds. Worthy is reminiscent of Devonta in the way that he uses his route running to set up defensive backs for bigger plays later in the game. His elite speed will be very desired in the draft.
I know a lot of “industry” lists are going to have Coleman much higher than the 6th overall receiver in the draft, and maybe he is deserving. There are many qualities to like about him. Throwing him 50/50 balls is more like 70/30. He’s like the bully in the schoolyard when it comes to getting the ball. My concerns stem from facing elite competition. He had trouble with CB Nate Wiggins this season, 0–4 when targeted, and came up small versus Devon Witherspoon last year. Keon will face a lot of elite corners in the NFL. His weeks could be boom or bust, or he could keep developing and be a top 4 player in this class. He comes with a little more risk than the other receivers higher than him, in my opinion. He will also need to work on his footwork and route running. Keon is very good and could be a nightmare in the right offense.
Egbuka runs with long strides, while also being quick and exhibiting great acceleration. He also has a knack for finding the soft spot on defenses. Egbuka can run all the routes and uses jukes and head fakes to draw DBs in. Has shown above-average hands to secure the catch and can break the initial tackle to pick up solid gains. He does everything well but is slightly underrated due to playing in the shadow of MHJ. For teams, like the Eagles, which value receivers with above-average run-blocking ability, Emeka will be higher on their boards. Egbuka has had a solid college career and has even more potential to unleash in the pros. A very exciting prospect.
One of the best slot WRs in the class. Brian is agile and has a good wingspan and catch radius. His quickness creates space and separation and is a hard matchup in the middle. Thomas makes grabbing the ball out of the air look effortless. Good YAC, and should be able to win routes with his body in the red zone.
Odunze has a large wingspan aiding in his catch radius, great body control, very strong, great size, mental toughness, good footwork, and sells routes very well. He uses his size to box out DBs, and wins most 50/50 balls. Earns the trust from his QB to give him the chance. He does not win on strength alone, he is also very quick and beats defenders to the catch point of the route. Elite awareness.
Rome Odunze is going to get the Chris Olave treatment coming out and get faded for being too talented. pic.twitter.com/8WVcUblFVM
Speed, Speed, speed!!! He is quick, creates separation, has very good balance, and strong hands. He displays great vision once the ball is in his hands. Above average lateral movement, flexible body to the extent of appearing as a contortionist when going for the ball. Malik is versatile and can play inside or outside. The best slot receiver in the class.
Jayden Daniels and he benefited from playing with one another.
MHJ can do it all, and do it better than everyone else.
The best WR prospect I have watched in the 3 years I have been doing this, that honor was previously bestowed upon Ja’Marr Chase, I know he was honored.
Name a trait or skill, he has it. Productive, great hands, body contortionist, competitive, breaks tackles, elite speed, great acceleration, bloodlines and versatile.
Not much more can be said, he is the best WR in class and that has come out in the draft this decade.
Tracks the ball well, has good speed for his size, and has elite coverage recognition. Limited route tree usage at UNC and speed may not play at the NFL level.
WR Devontez Walker
Great ball-tracking ability on this play, i love the focus. I don't see his explosiveness and speed on every play, but here for a 6'3 200 lbs guy, it's impressive. Great IQ against the coverage.
Great initial burst and a very good route runner. He is extremely versatile and can beat you with his crisp routes, as a deep threat or being used in several gadget-style formations. His size holds him back from dominating contested balls and snatching receptions at the point of the catch, but if used properly can be a great WR2 in many NFL offenses.
‘24 NFL Draft Prospect Watch 👀 6’0 185 lb #Georgia WR Ladd McConkey runs some of the best routes in this years class.
The YAC, Monster, God, King, by any name, we get it, he is great at getting yards after the catch.
Not just great, historically great! He forced the most missed tackles at 40 right behind on the list only had 27. Per PFF this was good for the 2nd most missed tackles in a season since they started charting in 2014.
As expected for a player with such a high YAC and tackle-breaking ability, Corley has elite balance, agility, and toughness. His compact frame makes him very hard to get down, coupled with those traits and it becomes a chore for the defense every time he has the ball in his hands. Malachi did a lot of damage from screen passes out of the slot. His usage did not show off a large route tree, though the times he did go downfield he looked good. He has strong hands and exhibits a good ability to locate the ball. Corley is one of the most exciting receivers in the draft, how he is utilized on his next team will go a long way in determining how successful he is.
One of my favorite sleepers in the draft. An elite slot receiver for the Cavaliers all year. Came in as a transfer and will leave after havig one of the greatest seasons in ACC history.
WR @malik_w2 Malik Washington @UVAFootball will be on a lot of 2024 @NFLDraft boards in April Set ACC single-season receptions record 110 rec, 1426 yards, 9 TDs 56 rec were 1st downs TEN 100-yard games Creates space – Precise Routes – YAC Screen -Slot – Jet Sweep Tank Dell vibes pic.twitter.com/iFkmCD7C54
Very large catch radius. Good burst and surprising speed for someone his size. Athletic and displays above-average YAC ability. He could be deployed as a slot or outside receiver or even a hybrid Tight End in the NFL.
How you create space for yourself as a receiver is one of the most essential traits that transfer to the NFL. Johnny Wilson has a LB dropping out into coverage, and he stems his route inside initially, then gives the LB a slight vertical jab at the top and cuts underneath. pic.twitter.com/s8PfEynIQr
Good ball tracking and displays the ability to recover and adjust on balls over or underthrown. He uses his arms well to extend and make catches on vertical routes. A reliable deep threat, despite not having elite speed. Tory is expected to go back to school.
Colorado State receiver Tory Horton got a ton of attention for his big night vs CU a few weeks ago, and he put up another monster game on Saturday vs. Utah Tech. 10 catches for 227 yards and 3 TD, and he now leads the country with 45 catches this season pic.twitter.com/TrvobGIP9r
Good at locating and catching deep balls. Elite awareness on the field, especially going up to bring balls down. Displays the speed needed for shot plays. He would be a very nice WR3, with the upside for more, on most NFL teams.
Jermaine Burton had his own Willie Mays type grab earlier this season against Ole Miss pic.twitter.com/luhNpHgohc
GA St transfer. Good route runner who exhibits run-after-the-catch ability and smooth motions, and does not waste effort. can be a vertical threat when asked. Could surprise as a 2nd rd. 6’1 185
Uses his speed and twitch to create mismatches and can line up all over the line to create more. RB/WR also returns punts and kicks. A later round sleeper that could interest the Eagles.
We are incredibly thankful for the engagement, community, and friends we have here. 2023 saw a big increase in new readers and we wanted to wrap 2023 with our 10 favorite articles from the year.
Happy New Year to you, your families, and friends. And… Go Birds!
The Super Bowl…
Losing the Super Bowl hurt not because of the loss, but because of how special this team is and how much we wanted Kelce and Lane and Mailata and BG and on and on to win. And no matter how much we believe in the “new normal”, it’s tough to repeat in the NFL.
On to the off-season and how Hurts has changed the fortunes of the team
The progression of Jalen Hurts didn’t just convince a fan base, it changed retirement plans and how much money some players were willing to play for to be a part of the team as they move forward.
Inside the mind of Howie – investing in the draft for future, not immediate, needs
As the off-season moved on and we led up to the draft where the Eagles still had two 1st rounders, we looked at history – and inside the mind of Howie Roseman – to see why our mocks are always wrong. Ignore immediate needs – Howie invests ahead of needs. And happy to say what we thought this meant for the 2023 draft hit almost exactly right.
A look at the Eagles historic pass rush
The Eagles would be counting on some new faces and a few new metrics to keep up with the ever-growing analytical side of the game.
One more ride – maybe the final one – with the Eagles core four
They would also be relying on their veteran players to provide leadership and tutelage, 4 of whom could be playing their last year together.
Some special moments and players in the 2023 season
After the week 4 overtime win against Washington, I dug into what the analytics community considers a “success” and how it misses actual football context. This dive then turned into a look at Jake Elliott, who I found is the best in league history when kicking to tie or take the lead. Little did I know seven weeks later he would out-do his own best with the kick in Buffalo.
Lost in the recent losing streak and concern on the team is just how good Jalen Hurts is. If you look at which QBs in history hit the most improbable passes at the most important moments – coming up biggest when the team needs it – Hurts already has 2 of the top 5 QB seasons.
Injuries have taken their toll a lot more than they did last season and the Eagles have had to use a few rookies to stay afloat.
And one first-year starter playing in a new position.
We still have business to attend to, but looking ahead to the off-season
We got a jump on the off-season with a full off-season mock including who Howie should extend, cut, sign in free agency, and go after in the draft. Personally this was probably the most fun I had researching and writing an article.
No matter how this season turns out, let’s look forward to the playoff run with this special team.
A lot of prospect clips you will see are well blocked, uncontested runs which are great, but tell you little about the back himself. But if you’ve read my stuff for a while, you will know I look for two things in running backs:
Elusiveness – an ability to create on their own through forced missed tackles and yards after contact
Explosiveness – generating big runs
When you look at the top NFL running backs this year and how they fared in college, they all stand out in elusiveness and explosiveness.
The top NFL running backs all stood out in college on elusiveness and explosiveness
When you look at the top running backs in the NFL, they almost without exception all were top college RBs in elusiveness and explosiveness – they are some of the most translatable traits from college to pro.
At the bottom of the article I have a chart on this data in case you want to dig in more.
It’s obviously not a guarantee to be a good pro, but very few pros didn’t also show these traits in college.
The guys to go get
Let’s look at the 2024 guys who also stand out and look to be top pros. If you are a prospect and can’t create on your own, chances of college success translating to the NFL are low.
I’ve left out the guys that are expected to return to school including Ohio State’s TreVeyon Henderson (but will one of the top backs in this class if he does enter the draft), Texas’ Jonathon Brooks, and Clemson’s Will Shipley.
Jaylen Wright, Tennessee – 2nd round
This year’s most explosive and dangerous runner and, in a league where speed is becoming currency, I’m planting my stake that he’s one of the best backs to get in April
We see how weapons like Jahmyr Gibbs, Keaton Mitchell, and De’Von Achane are impacting offenses and Jaylen Wright is the guy in this class that may be able to do the same. He doesn’t have the receiving resume as Gibbs, but he brings the same game-breaking ability in a slightly bigger build (5’11” 210 lbs) and, believe it or not, possibly a bit faster.
Patient runner behind blocks with elite, video-game like acceleration that threatens to break any run
Good contact balance and ability to slip tackles with one of the best missed tackle rates in the last two classes
Receiving value is a projection, with only 34 career targets and only 6 in front of the line of scrimmage, but has the open-field ability
Plus pass blocker, greatly improved in 2023
Wright was in a three-back rotation at Tennessee and registered dominant games against some of the best SEC run defenses: 11/120 vs Kentucky, 9/90 vs. UGA, and 19/136 vs. Texas A&M. And he routinely racked up big runs with runs of 82, 75, 52, and 42 this year.
Still under-the-radar as he just recently declared for the draft, I know I am way higher on him than consensus. But Jaylen could be special.
Trey Benson, Florida State – 3rd round
Benson is the most prototypical, all-round back in this class – a back that is good at everything but may not have the explosive upside as some others in this class
With his blend of size, pass catching, and rushing value, he best fits the “prototypical back” label in this class. Teams will get a very solid back but probably not an explosive offensive weapon due to his good but not great elusiveness.
Watching him, I liked him better as a pass-catcher than a rusher which isn’t a criticism of his rushing
Very good in open space where he can get up to speed, doesn’t quite have the same short-area quickness and elusiveness as others
Good contact balance and shows an ability to run through tackles
Quick, he has hit 21+ mph five times this season
Bucky Irving, Oregon – 3rd round
Probably the most dangerous open-field runner in this class and his receiving upside makes him a perfect offensive weapon
If Jaylen Wright and Bucky Irving bring the lightning, Audric may bring the entire storm. Don’t let people label him as just an old-school, bruising back with his size:
His first cut agility and toughness to bring down make negative runs a rarity
67% of yards after contact is 2nd best in this class
He runs like a smaller back, going around or (literally) over defenders
22 runs over 15 yards are most in this class and his 18% explosive rush rate is the highest you will see at his size
Later round options
Devin Neal, Kansas – 6th round
A guy I really like, adds value in the passing game and a very effective runner in space, but has limitations. He lacks top-end speed and while he can slip tackles, he goes down on first contact, you aren’t going to see him break many tackles. UPDATE: Devin just announced after this published that he is returning to Kansas in 2024
Isaiah Davis, South Dakota State – 7th round
Racked up big numbers with 23% of attempts going over 10 yards and has some attractive traits but he also was able to feast on lesser competition. His on-field speed and short-area quickness doesn’t pop consistently.
Thoughts on other top prospects
Marshawn Lloyd, USC
Exciting traits with an 21% explosive rush and 41% missed tackle forced rates with one giant “but”… he has a really concerning 8 career fumbles including 3 in 2023 (2.8% fumble rate). Like DeWayne McBride last draft, I’ll never put guys with a multi-year fumble history on a draftable list.
Braelon Allen, Wisconsin
Expected to be one of the top handful of running backs drafted, he, like Marshawn, has a concerning fumble history with 4 in 2023 and 9 in his career. Another bigger back, he differs from Audric as you won’t see the same explosiveness. One of the youngest guys in this class at only 19 years old, you are banking on continued growth.
Blake Corum, Michigan
One of my favorite guys last year, he hasn’t been the same after the knee injury – his explosive rush rate fell from 14% to 9% and his missed tackle rate collapsed from 29% to 10%. Add in that he will turn 24 during his rookie season and, unfortunately, he may have limited tread left.
Ray Davis, Kentucky
Will break some tackles but doesn’t have top end speed and his production was inconsistent, racking up a lot of his value against weaker run defense teams. Already 24, he will turn 25 during his rookie season.
Click here to see the data on the past NFL RBs and the 2024 RB prospects
To simplify the chart below, the top right quadrant is where you want to be, showing both an ability to force missed tackles and create explosive rushes. Only one RB – the Chiefs Isaiah Pacheco – is among top 20 backs that is an exception.
And here are the 2024 RB prospects on the same chart to show who may, or may not, perform:
Four Eagles Themed Mock Drafts: Who Are You Suiting Up?
Here are four themed Eagles mock drafts:
“Howie’s gonna Howie” classic draft
“Bizarro Howie” draft
“The need for speed” draft
“Give the people what they want draft
While this is for fun, these all have good players and aren’t bad drafts. Who are you suiting up? Vote at the bottom.
Let’s get started…
“Howie’s-gonna-Howie” mock
We’ll start with the obvious, straight chalk Howie mock – big programs, athletes, premium positions, and maybe sneaking a guy who unexpectedly drops in the draft.
Boring? Yeah, maybe… Wrong? It’s hard to argue with the Eagles model.
R1: EDGE JT Tuimoloau, Ohio State R2: WR Xavier Worthy, Texas R2: CB Kalen King, Penn State R3: OL Sedrick Van Pran, Georgia
A pick on each line including a future BG replacement and another team captain from Georgia, a speedy receiver that models his game after DeSean Jackson with good speed and downfield ball tracking, and, like last year, Howie believes he found value with another corner that surprisingly fell on draft day (Kalen King has started dropping on big boards, down 20 spots from November).
“Bizarro Howie” mock
The “how you know Howie is a hostage” mock… the “George Constanza chicken salad on rye untoasted” mock… the “how the Steelers drafted 2018-22” mock (not a knock on the Steelers, these are just exactly the positions they have used top picks on)…
Call it what you want, this is not what Howie does. Positions he won’t take high, no trenches, no SEC schools for the first time since 2019… it’s chaos. But is it actually a bad draft?
R1: SAF Tyler Nubin, Minnesota R2: LB Jeremiah Trotter Jr, Clemson R2: CB Denzel Burke, Ohio State R3: RB Trey Benson, Florida State
A big, playmaking safety that has more interceptions and PBUs than receptions allowed over the last 3 seasons… a force in the middle of the field with Eagles bloodlines…
A good corner taken sort of high… and a 223lb running back that has forced more missed tackles than anybody except Bijan.
“I feel the need… the need for speed” mock
We will see if I am right, but I think we are going to see speed taken higher than expected this upcoming draft… teams see how dangerous the Miami offense is and will look to copy. The Eagles are usually out in front of trends, so let’s add speed on both sides of the ball.
Tyreek Hill‘s fastest recorded in-game speed this year was 22.01 mph. On the Eagles, Quez has hit 21.6 mph (when he actually tries which is rare anymore) and DeVonta gets just over 20 mph. Our new guys?
Payton Wilson 23.4 mph (that isn’t a typo… he hit a ridiciulous 23.4 mph vs. Notre Dame)
Jaylen Wright 22.2 mph
“Let the people have their way” mock
These are all of our picks. I’m going off of the current most frequently mocked players to the Eagles as of December 22 courtesy of nflmockdraftdatabase.com. They only track the first two rounds so I will use my judgment on the 3rd rounder (but he’s a guy that I see in almost every Eagles mock, so I feel good you will all nod in agreement).
A safety with 11 interceptions over the past two seasons, a cover corner, one of the top LBs in this class, and a YAC receiver that people hope is this year’s Deebo.
This is definitely a draft to address current needs, which the consensus picks almost always are.
2024 NFL Draft Profile: Jackson Powers-Johnson, Oregon
If you are a team looking for a Center to anchor your line for the next decade, look no further than Oregon Duck OL Jackson Powers-Johnson.
Watching the All-22 of Oregon this season has been must-see TV. And the more you watch, the one person who stands out every single game is JPJ.
The fact that JPJ will only be 21 years old, makes investing high draft capital in him that much more desirable.
A 4-star recruit coming out of high school, JPJ has only improved at college and has been exceeding against players 2-3 years older. He stands 6’3 and weighs 320 lbs, and with his frame, he will only develop more strength.
For those who watched Oregon Duck games, NO, that’s not the former #7 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft Penei Sewell wearing #58 anymore.
Get to know the best Center in the draft, Jackson Powers-Johnson.
Speed
Jackson possesses the ability to get down the field in a similar fashion to what Eagles fans have seen with their current O-line players and running schemes.
Jackson is extremely agile and efficient. He reacts quickly and with ease, wasting very little movement.
Just something different about Oregon offensive linemen wearing 58 & getting out on screens I guess. My goodness, Jackson Powers-Johnson. 😳 pic.twitter.com/5qB5qZA6UF
He’s very powerful, no pun intended. He will knock you down, then jump on top for good measure, just to make sure you don’t have any thoughts of getting back up into the fight.
There is a lot of football knowledge under that helmet. Jackson has a very HIGH football IQ. He makes alignment adjustments on the fly, demonstrating a high level of on-field awareness. He is also elite at reading defenses and being in the right position while communicating well with the guards and tackles around him.
JPJ puts that football IQ into practice by creating advantages in leverage and adding power to his blocks.
Jackson is a leader and a technician on the field.
Paving the Lane During Runs
He is aggressive and looks to maul someone every play. JPJ initiates contact with a violent first punch. He gets low on defenders, driving them back and paving lanes for the RBs.
He blows up anyone in his way on screenplays and he can flat-out run!
There is no quit in him. One of the best finishers in this class at any OL position.
Jackson is usually the first to strike. He releases quickly from his stance and does so in the same manner in which he does everything else, with above-average speed.
He only allowed one pressure over 497 pass-blocking snaps this season, and not a single sack!
JPJ stands up inside pass rushers giving his QB clean pockets in which to step up. Exhibits quick feet in pass pro and has a good recovery.
Versatile
Jackson was highly effective in 2022 at RG and did not miss a beat changing position (ala Cam Jurgens) to center in 2023. Stoutland will be able to utilize either Cam or Jackson at either spot.
Excited to see Jackson Powers-Johnson test his mettle come April by declaring for the #NFLDraft
An athletic C who through his grit & junkyard🐶playstyle should fit multiple schemes even if wide zone seems to be the best fit
Rimington trophy winner, the first-ever in Oregon Duck history
AFCA first-team all-American
Conclusion
Jackson is not only one of the best prospects in this draft class he is also one of the most sure things you can draft. He has a very high ceiling while also limiting risk with a very high floor.
He is the best Center in class and will be drafted as such. If he is there for the Eagles with their early 2nd-round pick, or even at the end of the first round with pick 32 (wink wink) he will be considered for their selection.
I love the tenacity #Oregon center Jackson Powers-Johnson plays with. Running downfield 40+ yards alongside Bo Nix on a big scramble and just gets the job done in the run game and as a pass protector.
Doubling Up in the Draft: Five Teams I Would Love to See Do It in 2024
One of my favorite things is when teams double-up on a position in the draft. And I’m not talking about throwing in another pick late on day 3 – I’m talking about using multiple top picks on the same position.
The Eagles famously did this in the 2002 draft when they not only doubled, but tripled, taking CB Lito Sheppard in the 1st, S Micheal Lewis in the 2nd, and CB Sheldon Brown in the 3rd.
What made this even more memorable is that the Eagles weren’t trying to quickly fix a weak secondary – they still had Pro Bowler Troy Vincent and Bobby Taylor. Reuben Frank wrote on the 2002 draft:
I distinctly remember sitting in the NovaCare Complex auditorium thinking Eagles head coach Andy Reid, director of player personnel Tom Heckert and director of college scouting Marc Ross had lost their minds… No NFL team had a better situation at cornerback.
And it worked brilliantly. Vincent and Taylor both played two more seasons with the Eagles, but Lito and Sheldon quickly took over, taking over fully by the 2004 Super Bowl season when Lito had one of the all-time great CB seasons.
In fact, using PFR’s Approximate Value (AV) which measures player value, Lito and Sheldon is a top-5 most valuable double-up since 2000. Below shows the value (using PFR’s Approximate Value) and value percentile for the two players. It’s incredibly hard to get a single 85th percentile player, these teams doubled up and got two of them in the same draft.
Rnk
Year
Team
Double-Up Picks
Value and Percentile
1
2000
Jets
DL: Shaun Ellis, John Abraham
161 AV / 96.0%
2
2007
Ravens
OL: Ben Grubbs, Marshal Yanda
148 AV/ 93.5%
3
2002
Eagles
CB: Lito Sheppard, Sheldon Brown
103 AV /88.0%
4
2000
Vikings
DL: Chris Hovan, Fred Robbins
107 AV / 86.0%
5
2015
Chiefs
CB: Marcus Peters, Steven Nelson
91 AV / 85.0%
Some stats on draft double-ups
Doubling-up is more common than you think: On average, teams double-up on a position in the first three rounds 7 times every draft. And every team has doubled-up at least once over the past decade.
Cornerback and defensive line are the most commonly doubled-up positions: Teams have doubled-up on cornerback 56 times since 2000. In only two years (2007 and 2023) has no team doubled-up CBs. Defensive line has been doubled up 47 times. No other position is even half as much as these two.
We love ya Bill Belichick, almost as much as he loves RBs: Only once has a team doubled-up on running backs, the 2011 New England Patriots. Desperate for pass rushers in a good defensive draft, Belichick drafted back-to-back RBs. Only Detroit has spent more draft capital on RBs over the past 5 drafts than New England.
The Eagles aren’t strangers to doubling-up: In addition to the Lito and Sheldon picks, the Eagles doubled up in 2023, 2017, 2014, and 2010.
Five 2024 draft double-ups I would love to see
These aren’t predictions, just some fun “what if” picks I’d love to see for a handful of teams. I’m using PFF’s simulator to make it as realistic as possible and all picks will be in the first three rounds:
Philadelphia Eagles: Turning over the secondary
Picks: R1 Kamari Lassiter UGA, R3 Kamal Hadden Tennessee
How could you not love drafting Kamari and Kamal? Bradberry will be gone, Slay will be here another year, Isaiah Rodgers is exciting but on a one-year deal, and as much as you may like the young guys, none of them have proven anything. While it seems like the Eagles won’t even invest in cornerback high, they have doubled-up on corner twice (including once under Howie).
With Kamari you get a versatile corner with a ton of intangibles. And with Kamal, a guy that is still raw in areas, tackling comes and goes, but he has the traits and upside you look for on late day two – he stays sticky to receivers and has that finger-wagging corner mindset you want.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Making up for lost time on the OL
Picks: R1 Taliese Fuaga Oregon State, R2 Jackson Powers-Johnson Oregon
I lived in Pittsburgh for a while and am married to a Steeler fan, so will also take care of my second team. I’ve written many times about how I hated the Steelers recent draft approach – since 2018 they have used 1st round picks on a RB, LB, two SAFs, and a QB. Prior to this past draft when they finally took OT Broderick Jones, the Steelers had only used two R1-3 picks on offensive linemen in the past decade.
I’m moving Broderick Jones back to LT and looking out to Oregon for a new RT and adding another JPJ to the team, this time a badly needed center.
Picks: R1 Laiatu Latu UCLA, R3 Byron Murphy II Texas
They just fired everybody basically, have underperformed awfully, been unable to stay healthy, and have a terrible cap situation. So, any position is on the table. They could double-up at CB or grab a right tackle and center, but I’m going defensive line. Of all spots, this is where they have been worst and the little talent they have on the line are at risk of being cap casualties.
Laiatu has some injury concerns but if he clears, you are getting one of the most disruptive guys in this class. Byron is a favorite of mine that brings maybe the best blend of run stopping and pass rush in what is looking like a very good DT class.
Detroit Lions: Putting them over the top at corner
Picks: R1 Terrion Arnold Alabama, R2 T.J. Tampa Iowa State
The Lions have talent across their roster and are finally competing. Last year, taking a RB and LB in the 1st round was questionable usage of premium picks when they could have used another pass rusher opposite Aidan Hutchinson and secondary help. They did grab Brian Branch who is a versatile piece and talent in the slot, but with four picks in the first three rounds this year, they are in a perfect position to double-up at outside corner.
The Lions need some backend help to get value from their pass rush and are getting two guys that get their hands on the ball a ton. Between the two of them, they have 18 PBUs and 7 interceptions on 121 combined targets this season.
Arizona Cardinals: With this many picks, a double-up is a given… let’s do a triple
Picks: R1 Bralen Trice Washington, R2 T’Vondre Sweat Texas, R3 Adisa Isaac Penn State
What, you say “let’s not be ridiculous, nobody TRIPLES-UP in the draft!”. It’s happened 5 times since 2000 including the Raiders in 2020 at wide receiver (lot of good that did them) and Ravens in 2017 on the defensive line.
With six picks in the top 80, the Cardinals are going to double-up without trying. So let’s raise the stakes here and triple-up.
They are probably more terrible on the defensive line than any other of their terrible units, so let’s give our old friend Jonathan Gannon some dudes. I’ll leave their top pick (projected to be pick #3 right now) for them to grab Marvin Harrison Jr. in case QBs go one-two, but after that, we are getting a massive NT for the middle, a big defensive end, and a smaller athletic EDGE.
Texas DT Byron Murphy II: Hook ‘Em in April, Howie
Every year, we see guys move way up (or down) from where the pre-draft rankings have them. This past draft, it was Calijah Kancey, a late R2 pick in December that went 19th, and Keeanu Benton, buried down in R4 in December but went pick 49. Same with Devonta Wyatt and Travis Jones in 2022.
After watching the top DTs in this class, Texas Longhorn Byron Murphy II is going to be one of the big risers between now and April. Not meant to be a hot take as I don’t do that, but, beyond being a riser, I’m not sure that Byron isn’t DT1 in this class. He’s going to test like Calijah and become a quick riser to the draft public.
When you ask “how will this guy win in the NFL” or “what is special about him”, Byron’s explosiveness for his size is what stands out. And it compares to recent guys that have gone on to success in the NFL:
Very good power and plays with leverage that generates consistent pressure
Stand-out first step quickness, rarely seen at his size
Relentless, clip after clip where he looks buried or washed out of a play and recovers to make a play
Solid in run defense with underrated range from the interior and ability to hold his space
Consistent pressure against top competition
Murphy consistently is causing havoc with 40 pressures on 246 dropbacks this season (16.2% pressure rate) and a 29% win rate. For all the sack purists, he’s added 6 sacks (2.6% sack rate).
If these numbers don’t mean much to you, just know that Byron is in rare air here. The only DTs better in the past five drafts are Calijah Kancey (17.1% pressure and 2.9% sack rates) and Quinnen Williams (16.3% and 2.9%). Both athletic freaks, just like Byron.
Here are three clips that show his quickness and ability to generate pressure:
And Byron has done it against the best teams. Against their three top-25 opponents this season (Alabama, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State) he had 11 pressures on 52 dropbacks, a 21% pressure rate.
When you watch his full games, it was noticeable how offenses moved the ball when he was off the field.
Power and range in run defense
Murphy has 19 run stops on 150 snaps, a 12.7% run stop rate, again in with some of the top guys in recent drafts. And this is better than any DT in this class except teammate T’Vondre Swift and Michigan’s Kris Jenkins – two very good DTs but guys that don’t pair the same pass rush upside as Byron.
Again, his athleticism and power show up:
The first is Byron, after being doubled and seemingly out of the play, quickly getting out to the edge to take down Oklahoma State’s 1,600 yard rusher Ollie Gordon.
Again against Oklahoma State, this time pushing the center back at the goal line, shedding, and making the stop.
The third is Byron again taken out with a double, but recovering through power.
An ex-running back and it shows
He played running back until as he explained, “ate himself out of the position” in high school and it shows when you see his initial quickness.
Don’t be shocked if he turns heads at the Combine – there isn’t another guy his size with the quickness in this class:
Reportedly the strongest guy on the Longhorns team, he showed up on Bruce Feldman’s freak list with a 455-pound front squat and was said to be able to hit 500 pounds.
At close to 310 pounds, he’s been GPS-clocked at 18 mph which again is in good company – similarly-sized and athletic freak Jets star Quinnen Williams has also topped out at 18 mph.
Athletics alone doesn’t determine success, but it does matter and you see it is how he so often wins on the field.
His ex-linemate and current Eagle Moro Ojomo agrees: “raw talent-wise, [Byron] is probably the most insane defensive lineman I’ve seen while I’ve been here.”
This is just fun, but look at his route-running and ability to create separation when Texas called his number at the goal line:
Draft projection and fit
Why another DT could make sense for the Eagles
Many question drafting defensive line again after the Eagles have invested a lot over the past couple of years. But they are still relying on Fletcher Cox for 700-800 snaps a year which is going to end at some point.
They have Milton Williams, Moro Ojomo, and Marlon Tuipulotu but both Milt and Moro are smaller DTs and Milt and Marlon are sneaking up on free agency after the 2024 season.
Byron gives the Eagles something the Eagles will miss after Fletch – somebody that can fill in for Davis at 0T but also move around the line.
Currently a late day 2 guy, expect a big pre-draft rise
Byron Murphy has an expected draft position between 80-100 today, but he will go higher than that. How high? I don’t know, but the draft averages 3.5 DTs in R1 and 6 by the end of R2 – guys with Byron’s traits and pressure numbers don’t last.
It’s hard to slot DTs without talking about what you are looking for. Some teams will want a massive run-stopping guy in the center of the line like T’Vondre Swift. Jer’Zhan Newton is probably consensus DT1 and brings similar traits as Byron, but is more of a 3T with some versatility out whereas Byron is 0T to 3T.
Byron is going to be a top pick on the defensive line in April and anybody looking for an athletic interior guy with pass rushing value, look to him.
Howie, last year we reunited Georgia linemen, let’s do it again and reunite Byron with teammate Moro Ojomo!
An elite burst and above-average speed which he utilizes to get off quickly to disrupt pass plays.
He also uses his hands very well to swipe would-be blockers.
Against the run, he sets the edge and diagnoses the run designs well to use angles to his advantage.
Intangibles:
Rare display of ankle flexion and bend capacity here from Chop Robinson on the strip-sack.
Doesn't even need the rip move to finish, because he's able to simply dip his shoulder and drastically reduce his surface area. And then, pinches a tight angle to finish and wrap around. pic.twitter.com/0nUpg7R17l
Hands are fast, sometimes too fast. He can be a bit handsy.
Lack of length could limit his strength as he progresses and could cause issues versus large OTs, but don’t get it twisted, he is strong!
Chuck Losey: “Chop’s phenomenal. I mean, Chop, he’s freaky in nature. He’s thrived in our system. His twitch, his suddenness, his ability to change directions the way that he does, he’s phenomenal. So he’s been great. I love Chop Robinson.” pic.twitter.com/ZqQWpvBN7p
Chop profiles as a stand-up edge that will create pressure and cause havoc utilizing a relentless motor to gain leverage and momentum to make up for a lack of raw strength. How that translates at the NFL level will play a large role in determining his success.
He is a freakish athlete who will be a mismatch nightmare for opposing offensive coordinators when used properly.
Robinson will be a first-round selection.
As always, thank you for reading.
David
12/6/2023
Follow me @PHLEagleNews
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Everybody Has a Mock Draft, Let’s Do A Full 2024 Eagles Off-Season Mock
NOTE: I recently updated this with an off-season mock 2.0 with a deeper dive into the cap situation and some changes on free agent and draft targets. You can find it here: “It’s Time for the Eagles Off-Season Mock 2.0”. There is still detail in this article that I don’t get into in the 2.0 article so time is not wasted here.
I love the draft and mocks are everywhere, but let’s try a full off-season mock for the Eagles, including retirements, free agency, and the draft.
This ended up longer than I wanted and my off-season mock 2.0 (if I do one) will just get to the point, but if you want to jump ahead in this one, here are the primary sections:
It’s a month after the Eagles win their second Super Bowl in franchise history and we are on the eve of the free agency negotiation period opening. Or, maybe the Eagles came up short in the playoffs for the second year in a row.
Regardless, Howie and team need to get back to work trying to improve the roster, one that, no matter how the season turned out, has some obvious issues. Here are my priorities for the off-season:
Invest in areas that will be needs 1-2 years out, specifically on the defensive line as BG, Cox, Sweat, and Reddick all will either be gone or up in free agency by 2025
Add another offensive weapon, preferably with speed
Enough is enough, actually improve the linebacking group with some multi-year stability – every target I will ask “can they cover?” and “can they tackle?”
Begin to turn over the secondary that is the most expensive in the league in 2024-25 at 20% of cap, old and injured at the named starters, and unproven beyond Slay.
Add depth at OT and TE as we see how different the team is when starters are out there (and Lane and Goedert have missed time every year)
Thinking like Howie…
I’ve spent so much time digging into how the Eagles approach free agency and the draft and, while Howie always surprises us, here are the key beliefs I will use for this off-season mock:
Howie rarely (by rarely I mean never) plays in the top-end of the free agency market – this is where contract mistakes are usually made
Premium positions (aka, expensive positions) are where premium draft capital is used
When we get to the draft, ignore what we think are immediate holes – Howie will fill immediate needs through free agency and trades
Instead, look out 1-2 years to expected free agency losses for where top draft picks will be used
For this off-season mock, this is what I would do but I will try to stay true to how Howie operates (no 1st round running backs, no breaking the bank on free agents).
But there will be differences – this is not intended to be a “what will Howie do” mock.
Salary cap status
Effective cap space: $45M Dead cap: $28M
The Eagles enter 2024 with $32M of effective cap space (once you assume the top 51 salaries and rookie pool are included) and $4M of dead cap, their lowest amount of dead cap in what seems like a decade. With some retirements and roster cuts, we take on quite a bit more dead cap but raise free cap space to $45M in 2024.
Retirements, cuts, and trades
Really no surprise here as the roster is either guys the Eagles want to keep or guys whose contracts can’t be ended yet. Only a few pretty obvious moves here:
Retirements: I have Kelce and BG retiring, both would need to be a June 1 designation and have a small benefit to the cap. Kelce I am pretty sure retires, BG less certain but even if he stays, the cap impact is minimal.
On the secondary: At least 1-2 guys need to move on as they have to make room for Isaiah Rodgers and the young guys need to be able to get on the field. Slay is not movable until 2025. I am releasing Avonte to save $7.5M, maybe he returns on a cheaper deal but, if not, that is fine. Bradberry doesn’t have much 2024 cap benefit but I want to treat him right and let him go somewhere he can start.
Fletch: Many will question Fletch staying. No, he’s not the same player he was, but his cap hit is $5.7M in 2024 and only saves the Eagles $1.5M to release him. Most will say he is overpaid but go check how many DTs go for less and are as good… I can save you the time, there are zero. Last year you would have signed guys like Jonathan Hankins (6 pressures, 42.8 run defense grade) or Daniel Ekuale (53 snaps, career 26% missed tackle rate). We do need to replace him and he may end up getting caught up in a numbers game getting to the 53.
There are a few players that we want to proactively extend well before they get to free agency.
Josh Sweat, not yet 28, would be one of the jewels of the 2025 DE class and the Eagles don’t let him get to that point. His deal is forecasted to be in the $22M range but would not be surprised if the Eagles needed to go higher. Sweat is going nowhere.
DeVonta Smith is extended before his 4th season with a seemingly massive deal, but the Eagles smartly get out in front of the coming Justin Jefferson, CeeDee, Waddle, and Ja’Marr extensions.
Landon Dickerson becomes the highest paid guard in Eagles history and 3rd highest in the league which is fair.
Player
Extension
Josh Sweat
3 year, $65M ($21.7M AAV)
Landon Dickerson
4 year, $75M ($18.8M AAV)
DeVonta Smith
5 year, $145M ($29.0M AAV)
Updated effective cap: $35M
I won’t over-analyze the cap structure, but assuming that each contract – like every Howie contract – is backloaded and includes a couple of void years, the Eagles 2024 cap space is down to $35M and estimated around $40M in 2025 and $50M in 2026.
One thing I will not do is restructure guys like Lane, Slay, or Goedert – it’s fine to push money into the future but not for players that either won’t (Slay, Lane) or may not (Dallas) be here in 2-3 years.
Notably absent from this list is Haason Reddick. The Eagles would love to keep him but with Reddick over 30 years old at the end of this contract and market value being near $30M AAV, like Javon Hargrave, it’s a deal the Eagles aren’t able to get done.
Every year there are calls for the Eagles to sign the top guys and it will happen again next March with guys like DT Chris Jones, EDGE Danielle Hunter, CB Jaylon Jones, LB Devin White, or S Jeremy Chinn. But here are their top dollar signings (by AAV) each year:
The Eagles rarely crack the top 20 in free agent contracts and when they do, it’s been on the lines: Reddick was the 10th biggest contract in 2022, Javon Hargrave the 11th in 2020, and Malik Jackson the 19th in 2019.
Re-signing our own free agents
The Eagles have several players hitting free agency after the 2023 season, here are the notable ones I will look to re-sign:
D’Andre Swift showed he is the best RB the Eagles have had in years. While the Eagles are criticized for ignoring the position, at 24 years old and the market for top free agents usually in the $5-6M range, the Eagles break tradition and give out a multi-year contract.
Jack Driscoll is cheap and everything you want in a backup OL, able to fill in at OT or OG.
Zack Cunningham may get bid up by other teams and I’m not sure he takes a 1 year deal, but has played well. He cannot – and will not – be the only answer at LB but he is worth keeping.
Braden Mann finally fixed the punter position and he earned a middle-of-the-league punter contract. Me? I’d still draft one and save the cap space, but the Eagles go for the known which is correct.
There are a ton of other depth free agents that may or may not be re-signed, I won’t get into the detail as they all will be around league minimum salaries but here’s what I would try for (special teams is a lot of my focus on these):
LB Blake Cashman – Highly athletic LB (95th percentile) that has had an extremely good year in Houston, 15% run stop rate and one of the better coverage LBs in the league this year. Only one year on meaningful snaps which limits his market some but he will be one of the best LBs the Eagles have had in years.
TE Colby Parkinson – Buried on Seattle’s depth chart, Colby is 25 years old and 6’7″, which you know I have a love for giant TEs. He’s already a much better blocker than Stoll and has receiving upside which he showed at Stanford. In very limited targets this year (17), he’s close to having more receiving yards (150) than Stoll does in his career (177). Last year Colby had a 1.48 YRR which, if he could keep up, puts him in the neighborhood of Evan Engram, Tyler Higbee, and David Njoku. Colby is definitely an upgrade at TE2 and could provide a successor to Goedert if he develops.
OT Josh Jones – The Eagles met with Jones leading up to the 2020 draft. Now a backup in Houston, I’m not sure the Texans let him leave his hometown but he plays both tackle spots and can play guard which is ideal for what Philly needs. He was showing promise last year but has been limited this season with an injury.
QB Tyrod Taylor – I’m good with letting Tanner McKee take QB2 but the Eagles will definitely want a veteran. I’m no fan of Mariota and his contract and will bring in Hokie Tyrod Taylor, who has outperformed Mariota his entire career.
Free Agent
Est Contract
LB Blake Cashman
3 yrs, $14.5M ($4.8M AAV)
TE Colby Parkinson
3 year, $13.0M ($4.3M AAV)
OT Josh Jones
2 years, $4.5M ($2.3M AAV)
QB Tyrod Taylor
1 year, $2.8M ($2.8M AAV)
Updated effective cap: $11M
Again, I’m not over-stressing on the structure of the deals and they will have some minor backloading, but these signings take cap space down around $11M in 2024 which we will need for the rookie pool and space entering the season.
The Eagles have four premium picks (top 3 rounds) with an extra 2nd rounder that gets closer and closer to the 1st round every week thanks to the Saints.
Pick
Player
Notes
R1
CB Terrion Arnold, Alabama
PHI needs cost-controlled talent at CB and there isn’t a guy on the roster you can be sure of after Slay. Arnold has all the traits, is disruptive at the catch point, and has good film against LSU and Texas receivers.
R2
WR Troy Franklin, Oregon
You can’t get offensive weapons in free agency without paying a ton so I check off my offensive weapon goal here. Franklin runs crisp routes and is dangerous – he’s hit 22.3mph which will easily be the fastest on this team.
R2
DE Jack Sawyer, Ohio State
Sawyer is a bigger DE with a non-stop motor and tons of power and some versatility that fills the BG void.
R3
DT Byron Murphy II, Texas
Many will question another DT but this is BPA at this pick, another position that is really expensive in free agency, and we need to replace 700-800 Fletch snaps still. A 16% pressure rate is best among DTs in this class and better than all but Quinnen Williams in recent years.
R5
LB Smael Mondon, UGA
I addressed LB in free agency because it needs to be improved immediately, but add another LB here. Mondon’s strength is coverage and instincts but he is undersized.
R5
CB Khyree Jackson, Oregon
Doubling-up at CB with a fast, high-upside corner with an insane 24% PBU rate, best in this class.
R5
OG Beaux Limmer, Arkansas
The Eagles have invested heavily in the OL the past 3 years and now need to look at depth. Beaux has played both guard spots and center and another center
R5
RB Jarquez Hunter, Auburn
70% of his yards come after contact and a 15% explosive rush rate who has put up really good games against Alabama.
R6
OT Anthony Belton, NC State
A developmental guy for Stout – he’s big (6’6″, 336, 35″ arms), nasty, and has quick feet. Had good games against Florida State but inexperienced and needs work on technique and reducing penalties.
Here’s what we go with free agents in orange and draft picks in green – hope you enjoy.
I know many will want a Trotter pick (which I would also like) and think an early 2nd round pick on another WR is too rich. Yes, maybe it is. But having two WR1s isn’t special, it’s a minimum for good teams. And second, with how good the top end of this WR class is, BPA when the Eagles pick at their top two picks may very well be a receiver (which it was in my opinion in this sim).
And I know many will want a new Lane replacement with the top pick. The reason I did not do this is, first, the Eagles are going to need to move up a good amount to get somebody that I think can replace Lane, and, second, Lane has said he plans to play through 2026, meaning a round 1 pick sits on the bench almost the entire rookie contract.
What are my own criticisms of this offseason mock? First, if Cam Jurgens goes down, the backup at center could be rough. Second, I am taking on some risk at corner, especially the slot – cutting Avonte may be selling low, but he has played one full season ever. And at some point we have to turn this group over and now is the time to start as CBs take time to develop.
From Dead Zone to Red-Hot Zone: A Look at the Eagles Red Zone Resurgence
The Eagles early season red zone woes are all but forgotten, but just a month ago, the inability to score – or even look like a competent NFL franchise – in the red zone was one of the biggest worries about this team and new coordinator Brian Johnson. This week, Nick Sirianni admitted that the offense with new personnel had some growing pains:
Your [red zone] identity isn’t always the same each year, and so the identity of what we did last year is just a little bit different than what we did this year. And it was taking a lit bit of time —It took us a little bit more time to figure out that identity, and since we have, we’ve done a really nice job, and our players are executing at a high level.”
After the Miami game, I wrote about the Eagles bottom-of-the-league red zone offense and the issues – its predictability, too many low-success rate rushes, and frankly, some bad execution that was due to improve.
Entering the Miami game, the Eagles were 20th in the league in red zone success rate, scoring only 61% of total possible red zone points, with 8 field goals and 4 drives failing to score out of 22 red zone trips.
But from week 7 against the Dolphins on, the Eagles have been the best red zone team in the league:
1st in the league, scoring 83% of possible red zone points
2nd in the league scoring 122 total points in the red zone, second to only Baltimore with 137 points
Scored a touchdown on 17 of 22 red zone trips
Have an active streak of 11 straight touchdowns in the red zone
Below shows the Eagles red zone scoring rate over the course of the season (green line) vs. the league average (dashed line). Since week 7, the offense has been on a tear.
This resurgence came at the perfect time as the Eagles hit the toughest part of their schedule. And they are going to need it to continue this week as they take on the 49ers.
What changed?
3rd-and-not-so-longs
We all saw the puzzling 3rd-and-long calls but one way to fix that is to just not get into 3rd-and-long.
In the first 6 games, the Eagles put themselves into 3rd-and-long on half (11 of 22) of their red zone drives. And nothing worked.
From week 7 on, the Eagles have only had one 3rd-and-long, when Hurts scored a touchdown against the Chiefs in the 3rd quarter on 3rd-and-10.
More Swift
What everybody was screaming for happened, whether intentional or not. We’ve seen much more D’Andre Swift in the red zone.
Here’s their red zone rushing usage before and after the Miami game with D’Andre clearly now the go-to-guy:
Swift
Gainwell
Hurts
Scott
Weeks 1-6
14 (30%)
14 (30%)
17 (37%)
1 (2%)
Weeks 7-12
14 (48%)
6 (21%)
9 (31%)
–
There has been too much hate for Kenny and I think the early season red zone issues were more play design than Gainwell’s ability. But Swift is just a better back.
Swift just creates more – he has double the success rate as Gainwell, almost 10% fewer rushes that go for 2 yards or less, he generates more yardage after contact, and generates almost twice the number of missed tackles as Gainwell. Both are good options, but Swift is better. And he gave us the Brotherly Sweep.
Hurts and the passing game
Prior to the Miami game, Hurts went 11 for 23 and the passing game looked as out-of-sorts as the run game. The Eagles threw often behind the line of scrimmage (7 of 23 attempts) which were generally not blocked well. As frustrating as that was, these were the only passes they were completing – the average depth of target for red zone completions was 0.6 yards and not a single pass over 6 yards was completed.
Since the Miami game, Hurts is 9-for-10 with 7 TDs and taking shots from further out including A.J. Brown‘s one-handed catch against Washington.
Sirianni’s words above about finding their identity are important – every year teams change. The Eagles had a new offensive coordinator, new running back, and new starter at RG. Questioning Brian Johnson was premature. And most importantly, this Eagles team is just too talented to remain that bad in the red zone.
This week it’s on to the 49ers who are an extremely good team and also one of the top red zone offenses. Don’t let last year’s NFC Championship make you overconfident… like the past two weeks, this is going to be a heavyweight battle.
And we have seen against Dallas, Kansas City, and Buffalo that the Eagles righting their red zone offense, where they have been near automatic in these games, has been the difference.
Jalen Hurts’ Improbable, Game-Changing Passes Are Becoming a Weekly Thing
Hurts did it again.
Down 4 with 11 minutes to go in the game, on 3rd-and-15 from the Bills 29 in a must-convert situation, Hurts hits Olamide Zaccheus in the back of the endzone to put the Eagles ahead.
NextGen Stats had this throw with a 14.6% chance of being completed, the best and most unlikely completion of Jalen Hurts‘ career so far.
Read that again. A 14% chance of being completed and it was in one of the biggest situations. If you watched the Iron Bowl this weekend, it was eerily similar to that game-winning pass that had Twitter ablaze.
Hurts continues to hit improbable passes
I wrote just a few weeks ago after the Dallas game how a couple of Jalen Hurt’s throws stuck out to me and led me to dig into them deeper. What I found was Hurts is already the top QB in improbable completion rate, defined as top 1% CPOE (completion percentage over expected), since at least 2000.
If you aren’t familiar with CPOE, it just measures a pass vs. its expected completion rate. From decades of data, we know how likely a pass is to be completed based on game situations like how far it was thrown, receiver separation, etc. There are multiple stats like this, NextGen Stats has the best one which uses player tracking data but CPOE is the publicly available one.
What we see every week and know intuitively – that Hurts is hitting really tough passes – is absolutely right and, if anything, we aren’t realizing how good he is and how well he stacks up against the game’s great passers.
This year Hurts has 5 of these top passes, already well on pace to beat his 2022 total of 7. Only 11 QBs have more than one this year and only Russell Wilson and Tua have 3 each.
But it’s more than improbable completions – these are at the biggest moments
Then I looked at the most impactful passes – not only the tough to complete ones, but the ones that come at the most important times. For this, I am used EPA (expected points added) and WPA (win percentage added).
Like CPOE, EPA and WPA are built from decades worth of game data. EPA measures how many points a play is either expected to add or subtract from the game – a long pass gets you closer to the end zone, meaning the chance of scoring goes up. A sack is the opposite. For WPA, it measures how much a play raised or lowered a team’s chance of winning a game.
And again, Hurts stands out as one of the all-time greats already. If you look at throws that were both 99th percentile CPOE and 99th percentile EPA, Hurts already has two of the top five seasons.
And Hurts this season shows up with only 11 games complete. Over 17 games, Hurts is on pace for 8 of these top throws and 37.40 total EPA gained which would be good for one of the top seasons ever.
Some of the names that show up with top passes are obscure as every QB in the league has enough talent (or luck) to hit these occasionally. But when you zoom out and a QB hits these regularly, over and over in the biggest situations, it is special.
Extraordinary Things to Do in Dallas On Your Eagles Sports Trip
As cliche as it may seem, your first must-see stop should be the 6th Floor Museum. From there, continue on a mini JFK tour.
Sixth Floor Museum — Located at the former Book Depository where Lee Harvey Oswald worked (and the window seen below on the sixth floor) and allegedly shot President John F Kennedy. 411 Elm St, Dallas, Texas.
Grassy Knoll Dealey Plaza — Many things to see outside here. The spot on the street, usually marked by 2 X’s, where the shots that hit and killed Kennedy happened. The picket fence atop the grassy knoll. This area is eerily similar looking to every video and photograph you have ever seen. Not a lot has changed in this area.
Texas Theatre — The site where Oswald was arrested. Still open, and authentic, and you can catch a movie there. Sit where Oswald sat.
Oswald Rooming House in Oak Cliff — Loved my tour there. Met Patricia Hall (owner, and knew Oswald when she was a child) 1026 N Beckley Ave
Ruth Paine House 2515 W Fifth St, the house has been restored to how it looked in 1963 and it was fantastic to see. Oswald spent his last night before the assassination here with his wife. See the garage where he grabbed a long tube-shaped package (curtain rods or the murder weapon, you decide). Co-worker Buell Frazier who drove him to work that day lived down the street.
Neely Street Boarding House — This is where the famous photographs of Oswald holding communist propaganda articles in one hand and the alleged murder weapon (rifle) in the other. (Located at 214 W Neely St, very close to Oswald rooming house in Oak Cliff, go here next)
Other Interesting Memorials or Tributes:
JFK Memorial Site — One block from Dealey Plaza, 50 ft high square memorial with inscriptions.
JFK Tribute — Outside of the Ft Worth Hilton Hotel (Formerly Hotel Texas) this is where Kennedy spent his last night and gave his final speech. Sculpture, photographs, and inscriptions regarding his final moments there.
Dallas Municipal Building — Where Jack Ruby shot and killed alleged Kennedy assassin, Lee Harvey Oswald, as he came into the garage.
Parkland Hospital — The hospital where both JFK and Oswald were taken after being shot. Jack Ruby, who shot and killed Oswald, also died here.
Lee Harvey Oswald’s burial remains are located at Shannon Rose Hill Funeral Chapel and Cemetery in Ft Worth, Texas.
Campisi’s Restaurant — You need to eat while doing all of these tours, might as well be here. The owner in 1963, Joe Campisi, and his wife visited Ruby in jail on November 30th, 1963. Would love to know the details of that conversation. Ruby frequented this restaurant back in the early 60s and it had ties to the Marcello mob family. The pizza was great.
J.D. Tippit Memorial. The spot where Officer J.D. Tippit was shot and killed. Located at E 10th St and N Patton Ave.
Jack Ruby’s former Carousel Club, located 1312–1/2 Commerce
Former Home of Major General Edwin A. Walker. Oswald allegedly attempted to assassinate him on April 10th, 1963 firing a single shot that barely missed the General after passing through his front window frame. 4011 Turtle Creek Blvd, Dallas
Non-JFK-related sites:
If the historical sites regarding the JFK assassination aren’t your thing, there are many other points of interest that you will want to do while in the area.
The burial locations of the infamous Bonnie and Clyde are both in Dallas.
Clyde Barrow is buried at Western Heights Cemetery (1617 Fort Worth Ave) and Bonnie Parker’s remains are at Crown Hill Memorial Park(9178 Webb Chapel Rd). Was moved from her original burial site, West Dallas’ Fish Trap Cemetery, due to reoccurring vandalism. Bonnies’ mother insisted her daughter and Clyde not be buried together.
Billy Bob’s Texas “World’s Largest Honky Tonk” 2520 Rodeo Plaza, Fort Worth Texas
Ft Worth Stockyards
Gilley’s Dallas (Gilley’s Place from Urban Cowboy) 1135 Botham Jean Blvd, Dallas, Texas
George Bush Presidential Library
Reunion Tower
Perot Museum of Nature and Science
Dallas Zoo
Deep Ellum — Live music, arts, and cultural events.
Dallas Mavericks American Airlines Center, NBA
Dallas Stars American Airlines Center, NHL
Dallas Cowboys, AT&T Stadium, NFL
Texas Rangers Globe Life Field, MLB
Dallas County Courthouse — A block away from Dealey Plaza.
Giant Eyeball — Main St near Dallas Arts District.
Dining:
Cattleack Barbeque
Resident Taqueria
Keller’s Drive-In
Tommy Tamale Market & Cafe
Recipe Oak Cliff (Vegan and vegetarian)
Sweet Georgia Brown
Cheesesteak House
In and Out Burger (chain restaurant, but worth a stop)
Conclusion:
Let me know in the comments how your trip went, and any other “hot spots” I have missed. Dallas has so much to offer for travelers and residents alike. If you found this useful and interesting, please clap (up to 50 times) and comment. May all of your journeys be safe, exciting, and shared with the people you love.
As always, Thank You for reading!
David
Follow me @PHLEagleNews
@PhillyCvrCorner
11/22/23
Why is Every GM Not Copying Howie Roseman’s Draft Philosophy?
Come April, we might as well assume that we hear a name like Amarius Mims coming to Philly as Lane’s future successor. Or Washington’s Bralen Trice, investing ahead of EDGE losses expected over the next couple of years. Or Michigan’s Kris Jenkins, adding another interior defender to keep the rotation going. Or some other linemen.
But somebody is coming.
In Howie’s tenure, only in 2020 and 2018 when they had emptied the cupboard to trade up for Wentz did the Eagles not take one or more linemen in the first two days of the draft. And, even then, in both years they still drafted three linemen on day 3.
And it’s working. So in a notoriously copycat league, why aren’t more teams doing the same thing?
Pittsburgh: Philly’s opposite in so many ways
I don’t mean opposite in a bad way. I lived in Pittsburgh for years, am married to a Pittsburgher, and it is an amazing city with a beautiful downtown.
But I got into a few conversations on draft philosophy and team building this week related to the two teams I follow closest – first, my hometown Eagles and, second, my wife’s Steelers. I’ve always said the easiest way to understand the Steelers draft philosophy was to do the exact opposite of the Eagles.
Between 2018-2022, the Steelers used their 1st round picks on a running back, linebacker, two safeties (including the Minkah trade), and a quarterback. In the 2nd round were three receivers and a tight end. This is absolutely unfathomable in Philly.
Over a 5-year period, no trenches at all until the 3rd round, using picks on OT Chuks Okorafor (benched), DT DeMarvin Leal, and IOL Kendrick Green (released).
The Steelers haven’t drafted the line and instead are overspending on it with the 4th highest cap commitment to the offensive line. Just to get the 26th best line in the league:
Okorafor is the 13th highest paid RT in the league at almost $10M AAV, is sitting behind Dan Moore who is giving up a 7% pressure rate, and Okorafor would be, at best, a backup tackle on a good team
Both guards – James Daniels and ex-Eagles Isaac Seumalo – at over $8M per year are 8th highest paid at their positions, good players but overpaid
Mason Cole is the 12th highest paid center at $6M just to give up the 4th most pressures
And this is what it gets them every week, around 40% of dropbacks…
The Steelers have now (rightly) fired OC Matt Canada and are left wondering well into his second season what they have in Kenny Pickett.
Kenny isn’t playing well but he isn’t even given a chance. And their prize 1st round running back Najee Harris – a good player but a premium pick that should have been used on Creed Humphrey or Landon Dickerson – is being outplayed by UDFA Jaylen Warren.
The Steelers brought in ex-Eagles front office man Andy Weidl as Assistant GM last year and with using two picks in the top 49 on the lines (OT Broderick Jones and DT Keeanu Benton), it looks like they are shifting draft philosophy.
I posted a mock this week that come April, if I were the Steelers, I’d do my best Howie impersonation, camp out in Athens, GA and when asked who I liked, respond “All of them”. And then take OT Amarius Mims and C Sedrick Van Pran.
If I was a GM and had a young QB, I’d draft offensive line and receivers until I either got fired or had a top 10 offense.
The trenches and winning…
This isn’t to pick on the Steelers as they aren’t alone. The Commanders, Titans, Cardinals, Rams, and Jets are just some of the teams that have terribly ignored or missed on building the lines.
Does it matter? Yep.
If you look at the top teams in the league, they almost all have top lines.
Team
Trenches Grade
Trenches Rank
Win %
Eagles
77.2
1
90%
Lions
74.3
4
80%
Ravens
73.6
5
73%
Browns
75.3
2
70%
Cowboys
74.5
3
70%
Jaguars
61.7
27
70%
Chiefs
65.8
18
70%
Dolphins
72.6
6
70%
49ers
70.7
8
70%
Trenches grade is a run/pass weighted blend of OL and DL PFF line grades
Of the 9 teams that have a 70% or better win percentage, 7 have top 10 lines. The two other top-10 graded lines are the Bills (6-5) and Raiders (5-6). The only non-top 10 teams on the list are the Pat Mahomes-led Chiefs and the Jaguars.
…and losing
On the other end, there are 13 teams with a 40% or worse win percentage and the majority are bottom-of-the-league lines:
Team
Trenches Grade
Trenches Rank
Win %
Falcons
68.2
13
40%
Packers
69.0
11
40%
Chargers
64.3
22
40%
Rams
64.4
21
40%
Jets
64.1
23
40%
Buccaneers
67.8
14
40%
Commanders
68.8
12
36%
Titans
62.7
25
30%
Bears
57.7
30
27%
Giants
54.6
32
27%
Patriots
58.9
28
20%
Cardinals
58.2
29
18%
Panthers
57.2
31
10%
Trenches grade is a run/pass weighted blend of OL and DL PFF line grades
9 of the bottom 13 teams in the league have 20th ranked or lower lines.
A lot goes into winning and my point isn’t that if teams just draft lines, they are headed to the Super Bowl. Teams still need to pick the right players and develop them – nobody has used more top picks on the lines than the Giants but they have nothing to show for it.
But aside from having a good quarterback, nothing is more highly related to winning than the lines. And it makes sense.
While it varies greatly across QBs, EPA averages around 0.5 lower per dropback when under pressure, completion percentage is 7% lower, and passer rating is 10 points lower.
The top running backs in the league in yards gained BEFORE first contact? You will see the Eagles, Lions, and Bills – all top run blocking teams – at the top with backs averaging around 2 yards before first contact.
On the defensive side, the inverse goes… top defensive lines smother rushing and cause havoc for the QB.
Yes, it happens to all of us and we will have to remember it again this April when “our guy” is sitting there on the board and Howie grabs another guard or defensive tackle. But he’s right and it shows over the long-run.
Every time I talk about the Eagles offensive line, I get “but we have Stoutland”. And we do. But we also have three high picks anchoring our line and 10 picks used in the past 7 years. And on the defensive side, we have 15 draft picks, 5 of them day 1 or day 2 picks, in the same period.
Three Underrated 2024 Draft Fits for the Eagles: Another Edge, Restocking Corner, and Speed on Offense
It’s still early but with a bye week upon us, we might as well start looking at some guys in the 2024 draft that are interesting for the Eagles. These are all guys that I think are highly underrated by current draft consensus.
A day one EDGE for what may be the Eagles biggest priority
Princely Umanmielen, EDGE Florida
Always a heavily drafted position, one EDGE that projects to be available when the Eagles pick is Florida’s Princely Umanmielen. While he has some tough games left this season and his gaudy numbers may drop some, so far what he is doing puts him right with the top pass rushers over the past several drafts:
20.7% pressure rate playing in the SEC
25.9% pass rush win rate
13.9% run stop rate with only a 12.5% missed tackle rate
To put these numbers into perspective, here are some comparisons from recent classes:
Not saying Princely is going to be a top pro, but these types of pressure and win numbers aren’t common in major college programs and they usually translate to pro success.
Here are three consecutive snaps against Georgia where he makes two run stops and then beats the LT on 3rd down to hurry an incomplete pass.
In a blowout loss, Princely was one of the few bright spots, finishing the day with 2 pressures on 18 pass rush snaps along with 9(!) run stops. Against the top team in college football, it was noticeable when he was on the field and when he wasn’t.
So far, I don’t like this EDGE class as much as recent years as bend and explosiveness is in short supply this year. Princely has both. Like every pass rusher, he needs some development, especially his hands, and at 6’5″ 245 pounds (but in process of getting back to 255 pounds), some teams will pass on him due to size.
Eagles fit: Few see pass rush as a priority in the 2024 draft but Barnett will be gone and if BG is still around, he is definitely in the twilight of his career. Sweat will be extended but don’t be shocked if the market is willing to pay a 30+ year old Reddick more than Howie will next offseason. That could leave just Sweat, Nolan Smith, and Patrick Johnson from the current roster. What size Princely gets to will be key as he may be redundant with Nolan at his current size.
Continuing to invest in the secondary with a day 2 corner
TJ Tampa, CB Iowa State
A high school receiver, while visiting Iowa State Tampa stayed for an extra day of camp when his return flight was rescheduled. Anthony Johnson Jr. recommended he try some reps at cornerback and coach Matt Campbell (and good friend and ex-teammate of Nick Sirianni) saw what he needed, later asking Tampa if he wanted to play corner.
Currently targeted as a late day 2 guy, if Howie wanted to pick up another high-upside guy outside of round 1, Tampa could make a ton of sense:
May be one of the better zone corner in this class, playing over half his snaps in zone and allowing only a 29.2 passer rating. And most telling is he has allowed 6 YAC on 7 receptions in zone… 6 total yards after catch, not 6 per completion.
Gets his hands on the ball at a good rate, with a 21% forced incompletion rate and a 36% rate in zone coverage, which is better than any corner in the last 5 drafts.
May be the best tackling corner in this class, with only 3 missed tackles over the past two seasons.
Good closing speed and effective in run support with 25 run stops over the past 2 seasons.
Clocked at over 21 mph in-game this season.
Here are three clips: the first shows his closing speed for a stop after reading the QB, the second playing man from the slot where he jumps in front of a receiver for an interception (this was a series after he gave up a big 3rd down completion), and the third clip is him sitting in zone for a leaping interception.
Eagles fit: There is a path where the Eagles are in good shape at corner post Slay and Bradberry – they get Isaiah Rodgers next year, maybe Eli Ricks or Kelee Ringo hits, and maybe Avonte or Zech McPhearson returns and locks down the slot. But those are a lot of “ifs”.
I’ve come to accept that it needs to be a special guy and board that falls right for Howie to take a corner high – he never says it, but I really think Howie sees the low hit rate on corners and chooses to shop in free agency and mid rounds of the draft, which is smart. We should expect at least one free agent signing next year but they need to continue to make upside picks in the draft and Tampa could be that guy.
Adding serious speed to the offense
Jaylen Wright, RB Tennessee
I’ll get it out of the way up front that this is one that I can’t see happening. I would be surprised if Howie doesn’t re-sign D’Andre Swift which keeps the backfield crowded, but I can’t quit #superoffense drafts.
We see what Miami is doing with speed on offense and I want some of the same for Philly. Jaylen Wright has reportedly hit 23.6 mph in practice and has been timed in the high 4.2s to low 4.3s.
A lot of guys are fast but it won’t translate to success – Wright isn’t one of those guys:
A 27.3% explosive rush rate, better than any back in the 2023 draft class.
He averages 4.8 yards after contact, 64% of his total yards, right with the top guys from last year (Roschon was 4.3 yards and Bijan 4.2).
The highlights of his you will see are always his long TD runs but my favorite clips follow:
This first one shows his patience at the line but then a silly, video game-like ability to accelerate. Watch him once he hits the 15 yardline – he goes from a pause waiting for the block to fastest guy on the field instantaneously.
These next two show his ability to either miss or run through contact. Year after year, this is one of the key traits that translate to NFL success.
At 5’10” and 210 pounds, Wright spent this offseason adding muscle. While he isn’t going to be a guy that runs guys over or carries defenders with him, when you watch his film, he doesn’t go down unless somebody really gets a square tackle on him.
Wright barely shows up on any draft big boards, most likely because it is uncertain if he declares. If he does enter the draft, he should be in discussion with some of the top guys.
Last year teams began shopping for backs heavily in the 3rd round with Kendre Miller, Tyjae Spears, De’Von Achane, and Tank Bigsby all going between picks 71 and 88. I would expect Wright to be in the same range as his speed will be enticing to teams.
Eagles fit: Again, I don’t expect the Eagles to invest at RB in the draft. But even if D’Andre Swift is extended, the rest of the RB room could be upgraded and why not make the offense even more dangerous? The Eagles have not had this type of speed at running back in a long time, if ever.
