This will anger many and probably should just be a tweet, but it won’t fit in a tweet or two. If you are here actually reading this, thank you and apologies in advance for the rant.
This comparison is a bit unfair as drafting Bijan last year would have actually been a better use of draft capital.
You can legitimately go several directions with the Eagles 1st round pick and they all make sense – a pass rusher is the most likely, a cornerback makes a ton of sense, in this crazy-deep receiver class you could take one, and damn-the-positional-value arguments a versatile safety wouldn’t be a bad idea.
But every year one of the most frequently mocked players to the Eagles is something that just won’t happen or doesn’t make sense. Last year it was Bijan Robinson. This year it is a future right tackle.
And I cannot understand how this makes sense.
A right tackle would likely sit the majority of their rookie contract
Lane is signed through 2027 and just this week, re-confirmed that he plans to play “several more years”. Several is three or more and syncs with what he said before on running out this contract.
Unless he changes his mind suddenly, this means a premium pick in the 1st round is going to sit either the majority or the entirety of the rookie contract. Maybe Lane changes his mind and retires early, say 2026… okay, you only sit a top pick for 3 years.
The Eagles already get less value from their rookies than most of the league. Shane Haff (an incredible follow on Twitter if you aren’t already) posted on this the other day:
Yes, some rookies play – DeVonta Smith and Jalen Carter were drafted with the intent to start. But rookies playing is usually only precipitated by injury:
- Landon Dickerson came in only after Brandon Brooks went down
- Kelee Ringo and Sydney Brown when injuries hit the entire secondary
- Nakobe Dean took a redshirt even though the LBs weren’t great
- Nolan Smith puzzlingly sat while the starters were played to death
Howie is right to address immediate needs through free agency, not the draft, but even then, there is generally a plan to have a rookie take over at a position the following year (investing ahead of needs). Or it’s a position that rotates. Tackle doesn’t rotate and there is no plan to need a right tackle until 2028 right now.
Sitting a premium pick that long is setting draft capital on fire
The financial side is an equally big issue and what many forget. Basically you need to answer “what is the free agency cost to fill this position?”
It’s why there are debates about positional value – every year you can sign the top free agent RB for around $6-7M. But if you need a pass rusher or receiver, the top guys will be over $20M and the next tier are in the $15-17M range. Cornerbacks are a bit lower, around $18M at the top and the next tier in the $10-12M range. That’s why teams take premium positions in the 1st round.
Right now you may be saying, “Hey dumbass, tackle is a premium position”. Yes it is but not if they are effectively a backup tackle. Backup tackles generally sign for $3-5M in free agency or are mid-round picks like Jack Driscoll.
Using a premium pick on a backup tackle means instead of using a pick that avoids spending $12-20M in free agency on a pass rusher, receiver, or cornerback, you are valuing the pick at effectively $3-5M.
This isn’t what smart teams do.
“Never doubt Howie drafting trenches”
True in principle, and Howie has said as long as he is here they will prioritize the lines. But this philosophy isn’t mindless or absolute. And it isn’t as accurate as most accept it to be.
Do you know where the Eagles rank in draft capital spent on offensive line?
- 24th in the league since 2010
- 19th since Howie returned to GM duties in 2016
- and 11th since 2021 even with the recent burst in OL investment
Only 3 times was a 1st rounder used on OL – in 2011 for the fireman, 2013 for Lane, and 2019 for Dillard. If you expand to look at the first three rounds, Howie has NOT drafted OL at all in half of the years (7 drafts).
A really big part of this is because they have drafted well and had such amazing stability on the offensive line, so they haven’t needed to. Even when they missed a pick like Andre Dillard, they had Jordan Mailata in the 7th round make up for it.
A team like the Giants is the opposite – they are 3rd in draft capital used on the OL but that’s because they keep missing and having to go back and re-pick. Same with the Titans who have used the 5th most draft capital.
“But have you seen our record when Lane is out?”
Yes, we all have. The Eagles are better with Lane in.
But first, Lane has played a ton. The last time he missed significant time was 2020 when he only started 7 games and played less than half the snaps. Since then (excluding a game when starters intentionally sat) Lane has:
- Started 49 of 54 games
- Played 87% of snaps
And second, you don’t have two RT1s just in case the first guy is injured – it isn’t like DL or WR where players rotate in. If a starter’s injury risk is really that big of a concern (which it isn’t for Lane), then you need to move on from that player.
Comparing the case for receiver and tackle
Another position I’ve talked about as a 1st round option that draws a lot of anger online is receiver – I’ve had countless replies along the lines of “LOL we have AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith already, we need a RT”. While I don’t think WR is a high likelihood pick, it’s an interesting positional comparison to tackle.
Even with AJ and DeVonta the past two years, receivers other than those two have averaged 74 targets a season. And this is with both AJ and DeVonta being incredibly healthy and this offense where Sirianni stubbornly says “everything runs through those two guys”. And the past couple of weeks, we have seen what this offense is like with one of those two guys out…
How is sitting a tackle for potentially four years with no chance of playing except with injury a better choice than a receiver that will play every game and potentially could get 70+ targets (and more if the offense moves to something that spreads the ball around more)?
I’m not saying receiver should be the pick in the 1st, I actually think DE or CB is by far the likeliest, and best, pick. And there is tremendous value at receiver on day 2 where guys like Jalen McMillan, Malik Washington, and a half dozen others would be great adds to this team.
I just find the conversation dismissing receiver in favor of right tackle interesting and puzzling.
Could Howie draft a tackle in the 1st? Knowing how he invests ahead of needs, I really don’t think so unless Lane did change his timeline. And if Howie did, I would hate it.
The only way it could make sense is if it was a special talent that fell and somebody that could play guard in the interim. And even then I’m not sure it is the best pick – you would be better off trading up or back to get your guy at a more valuable position.
What could make sense? Obviously drafting a tackle later, especially if it’s an upside guy that you think could develop, makes sense. But I don’t even think this makes sense with the two 2nd round picks when you are going to have options there in a deep receiver and corner class and in a prime round to take a safety or linebacker if you want. Again, you are drafting a tackle to be a backup.
End rant. And thanks for reading if you are still with me. And Fly Eagles fly!
Normally I agree with you about the wisdom of drafting players who may not start immediately. But Shane Haff made a really good point about playing young guys and I find his argument persuasive: https://x.com/ShaneHaffNFL/status/1747633088350261281?s=20
This is all about organizational arrogance. Everybody thought the Eagles had a ton of depth this year — including me. Turns out we were wrong; many vets stunk and the kids should have played sooner.
I actually agree with this and tried to make that point above. I like that Howie does not force his hand on drafting a need, that gives him flexibility to take best player. But even with that, the young guys get on the field too slowly. Last year when we were ahead in so many games, the young guys generally didn’t get in. Nolan needed to rotate in more earlier, instead we played our DEs into the ground. Zech has never played even with Avonte out every other game. Kelee still did not start the playoff game when so apparent JBJ is done.
I read lots of flawed logic and incomplete analysis in this piece.
**Yes, Lane will likely play for several more years, but just look at the team’s record when he’s out and replaced by a back-up OT. The Eagles FO view QB2 as a “premium position”, so they likely have a similarly contrarian valuation for Lane’s back-up (and eventual replacement).
**The various OT draft misses serve as a reminder that the Eagles may not get Lane’s eventual replacement correct in their first attempt. It’s better to be proactive sooner rather than later scramble and act in desperation.
**Lane has been dealing with injuries and missing time with an increasing frequency. His game also depends more on athleticism than many OL. Not every OL can be as productive as Jason Peters or Kelce in their mid-30s. A rookie-contract OT could also see playing time for injured starters at LT or OG (in a pinch).
**Yes, premium OTs get big bucks, but they are rarely available on the open market. Such FAs get overpaid. The way to secure a good one in a financially-sound way is to draft and develop.
**Yes, the Eagles haven’t spent much draft capital on the OL, but that is greatly attributed to having multiple long-time starters in place and successfully developing other pieces. In addition, the Eagles have rarely selected in the top half of the draft to even have the opportunity to spend top draft capital.
Appreciate the read and comment. This is what is fun about team-building, there are different approaches. And some of your points I agree with – top FAs a lot of times don’t hit the market but that’s true of all the premium positions. This is why getting a young good CB is impossible (so many mention Jaylon Johnson, he is not leaving CHI IMO).
I wrote previously the only way I would feel comfortable doing this is if a talent fell that could play OG, for me that is Taliese Fuaga this year (I doubt he gets anywhere near 22 though but who knows). I also am cautious on position switches, they aren’t as easy as many think.
But if you get a RT and you know they are good and Lane still wants to play for 3-4 years, would you move on from Lane early? Or just keep both with Lane consuming $20M of cap space? Eagles could move on from Lane this year if they wanted to (post 6/1) but they also aren’t good making tough decisions on long-term Eagles. I think Lane is still very good and they won’t move on from him, which is why I can’t see taking a RT this year. Each year that goes by it gets easier to though.