A look into the week 2 game with San Francisco with some data on what I think will be most important. Includes SF's secondary, the Eagles explosive plays, the evenly matched lines, pressure-to-sack rates and Garoppolo. Read more
YouTube is a beautiful thing. I watched the footage I could find on the corners listed below, and when available read and chatted with scouts who follow the teams and players. Read more
A quick look at some of the analytics on the week 1 win. The Eagles had a really good week and there is a lot of optimism to take away from the game. Read more
A dive into the data on three key areas that I think will be the storylines against the Falcons in the opener: Eagles DL vs. Falcons OL, the secondaries, and Kyle Pitts. Read more
In September 2014 Josh went down with an injury that by all reports was described as gruesome, career ending with a possible amputation due to the severity of the injury and possible artery damage not allowing blood flow to the lower leg. Read more
Taking a look this week at some of the other Eagles draft hopefuls in the 2nd round including Terrace Marshall, Asante, JOK, Creed Humphrey, and Moehrig. Read more
Long before the celebration started, after that long May 1st draft day afternoon, there was a very hard road that included being homeless, life altering decisions regarding Covid 19, and a perseverance that most of us will thankfully never be forced to understand. Read more
A look back at how the Eagles did on what I thought was important for the Steelers preseason game and a couple of updated things I am looking for tonight vs. the Patriots, including run defense. Read more
The Eagles had many needs entering the 2021 draft and could have gone with almost any position if they stayed BPA. But generally, our top draft hopefuls were offensive weapons and cornerbacks. Here I take a quick look at how each is doing so far this summer. Read more
Before the season, I had the 49ers modeled as a slightly better team than the Eagles based on expected aggregate team value. San Francisco was a bad team in 2020 but like Philly, it is important to look at why and what has changed:
SF started Nick Mullens and CJ Beathard in 12 games as Garoppolo was injured and the difference was stark. Garoppolo was 14th in composite EPA+CPOE vs. Beathard at 29th and Mullens at 32nd.
SF also was one of the “unluckiest” teams in the league, underperforming their expected win total by 11% and near the league bottom in turnover margin (although I don’t see turnover margin as big of a regression statistic as most others do – more on that below).
And while the Eagles had awful injury luck (30th in the league), SF was even worse, ending last in the league with 166 adjusted games lost, double the league median.
The Eagles and 49ers are weirdly similar teams, with strengths (QB and receivers, pass rush) and weaknesses (run defense) generally in the same areas.
This makes this week’s game very different than the opener where the Eagles strengths (DL, receivers) were matched up against the Falcons weaknesses (OL, secondary).
Before the season, I had this as a loss for the Eagles but think they win this one now, especially at home. Here are three quick thoughts on what I think will matter for the game:
The 49ers injuries matter
The 49ers secondary wasn’t necessarily a strength entering the season, ranked 20th, and they just lost their best CB, Jason Verrett, for the season. They also let go their statistically best corner in 2020, Ahkello Witherspoon. And their next CB on the depth chart, Emmanuel Moseley, is questionable. K’Wuan Williams in the slot is decent but on the outside there’s a lot of youth (5th rounder Deommodore Lenoir who they like and 3rd rounder Ambry Thomas). They just brought back Dre Kirkpatrick who allowed a 116 passer rating against the Eagles last year. The Eagles will need to expose this secondary.
The “disappearing” Eagles explosive offense
One “yeah but” narrative common after the Eagles win was the lack of explosive plays, or more specifically, lack of downfield throws by Hurts. Last week, Hurts was 35th out of 39 QBs in average depth of target (aDOT) of 3.8 yards.
I pushed against this narrative for two reasons: first, Dean Pees’ defenses prioritize taking away downfield throws which Sirianni also spoke about after the game and second, while aDOT is important, what matter is explosive plays. You are obviously more likely to have an explosive play with a deeper throw, but the Eagles did not suffer from lack of explosive plays.
After week 1, the Eagles offense was 5th in the league in explosive plays generated and 5th best in defensive explosive plays allowed. Both of these are better than SF, whose offense had some big plays but also allowed a much worse Detroit team to generate explosive plays on 8% of plays.
The Eagles had six explosive passes in week 1, four of which had air yards greater than 10 yards, along with 4 explosive runs with two by Hurts himself:
Explosive Passes:
1st quarter 18 yard TD to DeVonta (18 air yards, 2.88 EPA)
2nd quarter 28 yard pass to Zach Ertz (27 air yards, 1.76 EPA)
2nd quarter 19 yard pass to DeVonta (12 air yards, 1.46 EPA)
3rd quarter 25 yard pass to Sanders (-8 air yards, 2.14 EPA)
4th quarter 19 yard pass to DeVonta (14 air yards, 2.54 EPA)
4th quarter 23 yard TD screen to Reagor (-2 air yards, 3.38 EPA)
Explosive Runs:
1st quarter Hurts 3 yard run (1.61 EPA)
3rd quarter Sanders 23 yard run (1.53 EPA)
3rd quarter Hurts 14 yard run (1.63 EPA)
3rd quarter Sanders 18 yard run (1.29 EPA)
The 49ers had 7 explosive passes, one of which was a 79 yard touchdown to Deebo Samuel that was 26 air yards and 53 YAC. They have young talent at WR with Samuel and Aiyuk, who appears to have been held out of the opener as a message. And of course they have Kittle which is another athletic mismatch for the Eagles and another good test of Gannon.
I expect to see a different Eagles offense against the 49ers with Hurts’ “disappearing” downfield shots returning vs. their banged up secondary.
The lines and pressure
As mentioned above, last week was a favorable mismatch for the Eagles but this week both lines are more equal. A couple of points to look for:
4-man rushes and will SF actually blitz? San Francisco, like the Eagles, generally relies on a four man rush but they have historically doubled their blitz rate on 3rd down. Hurts has been very good against the blitz and it will be interesting to see if SF actually avoids the blitz with their secondary and Hurts strength against the blitz.
QBs under pressure Garoppolo last year was good against pressure with only a 6 point drop in passer rating. In week 1, Hurts was actually better when under pressure with a 135 passer rating. Credit to both his escapability and his good decision-making.
Garoppolo’s two issues Garoppolo is a good QB but has two issues that pop out to me: he allows way too many sacks and he has an interception problem.
In 2020, Garoppolo was 40th of 44 QBs in pressure to sack rate at 28.9% and had the highest sack rate in the league when he held the ball for 2.5 seconds or more. Hurts allowed sacks at a much lower rate of 17% despite a much higher pressure rate last year. And for added context, Garoppolo is worse than Wentz, who was awful at this, as Wentz “only” had a 25.3% pressure to sack rate.
Garoppolo had the 3rd worst interception rate in the league in 2020 at 3.6% of attempts, only behind Mullens and Jake Luton, and was more prone to throw interceptions when he held the ball. 4 of his 5 2020 interceptions came when he held the ball 2.5 seconds or longer. And this is not new as he had 15 interceptions in 2019 with a 3.0% pick rate. Turnovers are my top concern with Hurts as he also had the issue in college, but even his interception rate last year (which I hated) was “only” 2.7%.
So this weekend, look for when Garoppolo is holding on to the ball. The Eagles will need to win the sack / turnover battle this week.
Who do I think wins?
Mostly because of SF’s injuries and this being a home game, I think the Eagles win this game. Our WRs and TEs should have good games and while we did not generate a turnover last week, I expect that to change this week. The 49ers have weapons, a better overall offense than the Falcons, and will pull in Lance (I hate the two-QB usage by the way) although I don’t think that will have a material impact on the game. It is going to be an interesting game where, at least on paper, each team’s units are matched up well.
Fly Eagles fly.
10 College Corners to Follow This 2021 Season
YouTube is a beautiful thing. I watched the footage I could find on the corners listed below, and when available read and chatted with scouts who follow the teams and players.
Derek Stingley Jr. He is the best corner in college. Injuries slowed him some last season, but thats the only thing that did. He had an elite PFF coverage grade. Stingley Jr is the top of the 2022 draft class. He is 6’1, approx 200 lbs, ran a 4.3 forty and had a 42 inch vertical. Impressive stats. Top ten first round talent.
Andrew Booth Jr. Not a lot of footage as he was a rotational player his first two seasons with Clemson. He has good size at 6 feet 195 lbs. Has seemed to be good at playing at the ball. He just needs to keep improving while playing full time.
Kaiir Elam At 6’2 200 lbs he is tall, tough, might be my favorite CB prospect in the upcoming draft. Loads of potential. Physical corner that leads to some bursts that get by him. That is not anything that coaching will not correct. He is one to watch this year at Florida.
Trent McDuffie More of a scheme fit corner- zone, avg size, built solid, good vertical leap, and he might be best tackler in class. He also might be a future safety. Not a lot of tape of defending the pass as he only had 4 passes defensed the last two seasons.
Mykael Wright Really good ball skills, needs to add muscle and weight. He checks in at 5’11 and roughly 180 lbs, but has proven to be very good at pass break ups. He has shown great body control. Mykael also returns kicks. With a good season, he will find himself on an NFL roster next season as a starting CB and special teams player.
Ahmad Gardner Mainly plays press corner ,and has been very good doing it. per PFF 87.6 grade (6th) 90.0 coverage grade (7th) 0 TDs & 39.4 passer rating allowed (4th) Ahmad checks in at 6’2 and has a sturdy frame. He reportedly is even stronger this season.
Josh Jobe Was up and down playing opposite Patrick Surtain II last season, and was targeted a lot. He was flagged too many times as he led all corners in the nation with 11 penalties, six of those in the final three games. Despite the penalties Jobe still had 11 pass break ups and per PFF was sixth in the country allowing only one reception every twenty coverage snaps. He defends the run well, reads plays well, hits hard and is a very good tackler. If he gets his emotions under control this season, his play (already good) will be very good and he will be talked about as one of the top corners in the country by seasons end.
Roger McCreary He has been very good at Auburn, but they are changing their defensive scheme this year so he will be tested to play more off man coverages. Roger has shown great instincts so far into his collegiate career and I expect him to keep that up this year and end up being a top round 2 pick in 2022.
Noah Daniels His biggest issue is heath. Has great size and skills when he plays but missed 2019 and only played four game is 2020 due to a torn ACL. Big wild card heading into season with huge potential.
Sevyn Banks Like Stingley, Sevyn is a stout 6’1 200 lb very physical corner. He has given up a lot of plays with his aggressive style, in 8 games last season he was targeted 53 times and gave up 31 receptions for 440 yards(per college PFF),but he could take a big step forward this season as he gains more experience. Another sleeper prospect.
David
Thank You for reading
Follow me @PHLEaglenews
Some Stats on a Very Good Opener in Atlanta
Overall stats: Looking at Expected Points Added (EPA) which measures every play with the value of the play above or below what is expected given down, distance, and field position. The Eagles were :
3rd in the league in rushing EPA and one of only 12 teams with a positive rushing EPA (a lot of the analytics community hates runs because they typically have a negative EPA.
8th in the league in passing EPA
And just because I love punters, Aaron Siposs had a couple beautiful punts and ended 2nd in the league in punting EPA
The Falcons had the second lowest total EPA (-21.6!), showing the job the Eagles defense did
Hurts’ accuracy: 77.1 completion %, 90.0 adjusted completion %, and 6th in the league in Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE) Hurts’ bottom-of-the-league completion percentage and CPOE were the primary points used to criticize him all offseason. I said his accuracy is not an issue because he was near-elite in college CPOE which typically translates to the NFL. CPOE is the metric to look at as it accounts for difficulty of the throw.
Hurts vs. the blitz: 105.5 passer rating, 83.3 completion percentage, 2 TDs, 8 of his 15 1st downs Before the game I posted on Twitter Hurts’ success last year against the blitz given that we expected Atlanta to blitz more and he continued the success.
Everything points to the Falcons blitzing more today. Jalen Hurts' numbers last year:
Blitzed on 32% of snaps 104 passer rating (16th, ahead of Matt Ryan, Ben) 8.8 YPA (6th) 4 of his 6 TDs 21 of his 56 1st downs Only ran 5 times on 59 blitzed dropbacks#Eagles
Receivers: Of 234 receivers this week, here is how they ranked in EPA:
DeVonta 32nd
Goedert 34th
Reagor 46th
Ertz 77th
Quez 79th
Three receivers in the league had 4 explosive receptions (> 16 yards) and eleven had 3 explosive receptions. DeVonta was one of the WRs that had 3.
Eagles defense:41% pressure rate, 2nd rated pass rush (82.6) The Eagles success on defense was obvious just watching the game. Jalen Mayfield had a 1.4 (that’s not a typo) pass blocking grade, allowing 2 sacks, 2 QB hits, and 4 pressures – Atlanta will be bringing in a free agent guard this week. Matt Hennessy (20.0) and Kaleb McGary (44.6) weren’t much better. The Eagles also generated one of my favorite pictures ever, “Deceased Matt”.
Gannon and the secondary: Eagles corners ranked 14, 15, and 18 in the league in coverage grades Avonte (72.3), Slay (71.9), and Steven Nelson (68.6) all graded out really well. While Atlanta isn’t a good team, Ryan is a good QB against pressure, Calvin Ridley is a top WR in the league, and Pitts is a matchup issue. This is a really good showing and speaks to both the CBs and Gannon’s defense which just seemed less stressful watching the game.
The Eagles OL: 5th rated pass blocking and 11th rated run blocking All five starters played all snaps. Seems like forever that has happened. While there were several penalties that were a bit sloppy, our healthy OL made the impact expected. I posted some data on the Eagles average offensive EPA based on how many starters played which showed a big impact on the overall offense:
The Eagles offense generated 8.28 total EPA, or 0.095 per play. Both are above the historical averages, which with better QB play and better weapons is to be expected. Everybody gets the importance of a health OL but I still don’t think many really realize the scope of the impact – a good OL makes a huge difference. I have repeated this many times, but QBs have over a 100 point DVOA swing being kept clean vs. under pressure.
A Look at the Opener from an Eagles Fan In Falcon Country
Most probably don’t know but I am a transplanted Philly guy now in Atlanta which I love. But there really isn’t a “Falcon Country”… on the eve of the season starting, the biggest sports story here is UGA crushing Clemson. It’s always college here. Even Atlanta United, their soccer team, ranked ahead of the Falcons as the top fan base in Atlanta. There is a small and passionate Falcon fan base here but they rightly (like us) expect to be disappointed.
The Atlanta Journal Constitution‘s article this week previewing the opener points to uncertainty on what to expect from both the Eagles and the Falcons. Both teams have new coaches, Sirianni and Arthur Smith. Neither coach showed anything in the preseason. But Falcons coach Smith and new defensive coordinator Dean Pees both were in Tennessee and played the Colts twice a year, so they are familiar with both Sirianni and Gannon. The AJC’s article quoted coach Smith saying:
He’s (Gannon) going to have his own stamp on that defense. They’ll play sound. They’ll be attacking that football. They’ll be really sound in the secondary. That’s a really good front that we have to play, I think both of their fronts are about as good as there are in the league.
In Philly, we share the same uncertainty (and excitement) for what Sirianni’s imprint will be. We know he will get the ball to players in space. We expect more running. And more pass catching by the backs. We know Gannon will have the defense swarming the ball. But we don’t really know.
If you read my win prediction modeling using team value, you know I have the Eagles as a slightly better team than the Falcons, which I had at 7.3 wins. The Eagles are currently 3.5 point underdogs and it’s hard to find any outlets picking the Eagles even with the points – as an example, 7 of 8 writes from The Athletic picked the Falcons and this repeats across other outlets. I don’t see it. Reading their reasons, they are superficial passes over the team headlines and fail to look at the analytics. They could still be right, I just hate that they so often didn’t look at what changes this year. They usually point generically to Matt Ryan as an elite QB or the Eagles only having Slay (somehow missing that we signed Nelson) or that the Eagles 2020 offense was horrible (ignoring the differences in QB, OL health, and offensive weapons) or the Eagles having an aging roster.
I dug into the data and here are what I think are the most important determinants for this game:
The Eagles DL vs. the Falcons OL
The storyline will probably be DeVonta and Pitts’ debuts, but the advantage the Eagles have against the Falcons OL should be the storyline.
The Falcons offensive line isn’t good – last year they were 23rd in the league in pass blocking and 21st in run blocking. And they have more questions on the line this year than they did last. Here’s their projected starting line:
Position
Player
Pass Blocking Grade
Run Blocking Grade
LT
Jake Matthews
84.0
57.5
LG
Jalen Mayfield (R)*
30.4
66.4
C
Matt Hennessy
28.6
59.9
RG
Chris Lindstrom
70.3
76.6
RT
Kaleb McGary
58.5
65.9
* Jalen Mayfield’s grades are from 2021 preseason
Their ability to protect Ryan could be a disaster.
LT Matthews and RG Lindstrom are the two positions the Falcons should have confidence in. Mayfield is a rookie 3rd rounder forced into the starting lineup who does not look ready, giving up 2 sacks and 6 hurries in only 123 preseason snaps. Hennessy is last year’s 3rd round selection who only played 225 snaps but is a big downgrade from one of the league’s best centers, Alex Mack, now in San Francisco. And on the right side, Kaleb McGary is a past 1st rounder they are hoping takes a big step up this year.
The Eagles were the 3rd highest graded pass rush unit in the league last year and 8th best on pass rush win rate. And they could actually be slightly better this year with Josh Sweat, who criminally only played 38% of snaps last year. Fletch regressed slightly last year but was still good and Hargrave had the 6th best pass rush win rate while being injured last year. They will be going against the weakest part of the line in the center. And while Matthews is their best linemen, the last time the Eagles and Falcons played, Matthews allowed a QB hit and 3 pressures for a 47.0 grade against BG and Barnett. Add in Sweat and the Eagles should be able to win on the ends as well.
Arthur Smith used a run-heavy offense in Tennessee with a lot of play-action and while the Falcons don’t have Derrick Henry, we should expect more play action from them to combat the Eagles strengths in rush and coverage (play-action seems to be increasing across many teams in the league because there is a distinct EPA gain on play-action). I do have some worries on the Eagles run defense but I’d much rather defend the pass well than the run.
The secondaries
The Eagles secondary as a strength?
Yes, it is a strength at least in this game.
We worry about our secondary but the Falcons have one of the worst secondaries in the league. PFF has them ranked last, I have them 31st ahead of Detroit. Even if AJ Terrell takes a bigger step up, they will still be a bad unit.
They lost their top four safeties in the offseason and replaced them with free agents Erik Harris (57.9 coverage grade) and Duron Harmon (64.4) and draft picks Jaylinn Hawkins and Richie Grant. At the corners, they have AJ Terrell, last year’s top draft pick (109 passer rating allowed last year), Fabian Moreau from Washington (73.2 passer rating), and Isaiah Oliver (130.1 passer rating). The Falcons don’t have enough good corners to cover DeVonta, Reagor, and Quez on top of Ertz and Goedert.
On the other side, the Eagles will need to contain Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage. Not sure “contain” is the right word or not – I absolutely love Ridley and he does what I care about receivers doing, scoring in the 93rd percentile in separation. He is going to get his yards against any team in the league including us. But my point is the Eagles secondary now can turn more focus to Ridley and Gannon won’t use Jim Schwartz’s “put our CBs on an island” defense.
Don’t let Kyle take the game over
Kyle Pitts worries me as a mismatch.
If you read my Tyree Jackson post here, you know I love athletic offensive mismatches. And Pitts is a mismatch created in a lab with sorcery.
Pitts barely played in the preseason but lit up camp and had the one impressive catch and run in the final preseason game. And the Falcons need Pitts – last year they ranked 26th in net explosive play rate even with 9 games of Julio (who is 98th percentile in explosive receptions). Even the Eagles in one of their worst offensive years in a long time were better, ranking 17th.
I can barely remember the Eagles being good against tight ends. Last year, the Eagles were 26th in the league against tight ends based on DVOA (this section isn’t about the Falcons defense, but when I was looking that stat up I saw that Atlanta was 23rd in the league last year against tight ends which surprised me a bit as their linebackers are very good).
Maybe we catch Atlanta at the right time in Pitts’ first game. I think handling Pitts is going to be much more on Gannon than any one Eagles defender like Eric Wilson or McLeod or Slay. The Eagles still don’t have a player that can cover top tight ends (insert dreams of drafting Kyle Hamilton next year…) and I expect a good game from Pitts. Success would be not having a repeat of last season’s lines like George Kittle for 15/183/1 or Chase Claypool for 7/110/3 who took over those games (I know Chase is a WR but his measurables and traits are those of a TE mismatch). If we allow that, the Eagles won’t win.
What could go wrong?
Hurts having a bad game, turnovers, the pass rush just not showing up, and allowing Ridley and Pitts to beat us. Atlanta can absolutely win and the differences between the teams are slight.
Despite being bullish on Hurts, his way-too-high-turnover-rate last year is a concern. But as long as Hurts limits mistakes though, the Eagles offense should benefit from having relatively better weapons, both rushing and receiving, against a below average defense. And to state it again because my worry is that high – Pitts worries me and it will be a good test of Gannon to not let a player take over the game.
I left quarterbacks off the above list which is odd as quarterbacks are always the most important part of the game. Quick comments here – Matt Ryan is better than Hurts, but he should be under pressure Sunday. When I talk about pressure, many push back that Ryan is a good QB under pressure but ALL QBs are worse under pressure. I have mentioned many times before, DVOA drops over 100 points when QBs are under pressure vs not.
Also, last year Ryan was a much different QB when he did not have Julio. This isn’t a completely fair look for 2021 as he now has Pitts to replace Julio, but it does show how important Julio was to the team and the importance to the Falcons that Pitts puts up big numbers:
Matt Ryan’s EPA splits with Julio Jones on/off the field (includes postseason) since 2016:
🔥 On: 602.4 Total EPA (2,608 dropbacks) 🧊 Off: 91.4 Total EPA (1,143 dropbacks)
There is a ton of unknown with any season, but even more this year with a new coaching staff. I had as one of my risks for the year that this new Eagles staff, all of which are in positions they never held before, makes some mistakes early. But the Eagles are better where it matters.
There will be plenty of games I pick the Eagles to lose but not this one.
Way Too Early Eagles 2022 Mock Draft
With the start of college football and before I get my Christmas decorations out (joke), I took a quick look at some players that should interest the Eagles. This post builds on a few prior posts:
I set the draft order using my recent NFC and AFC win predictions, giving the Eagles picks #14, 16, and 17 in the first round and #48 in the second round if the Indy pick promotes.
I had an analysis of the Eagles draft series earlier in the summer where I looked at the Eagles history on different positions and what they should be prioritizing moving forward.
I used PFF’s draft simulator as it allows setting the draft order and their player rankings are as good (or no worse) than other simulators at this point:
Round 1-14: Kenyon Green, OL Texas A&M
Using Indy’s round 1 pick, the Eagles take offensive linemen Kenyon Green. Kenyon is a 6’4″ 325lb linemen who has played both guard spots and is now playing right tackle, perfectly fitting into the Eagles desire for flexibility on the line (although he is still probably a guard in the NFL). Viewed as the most athletic linemen in the draft, he was the NCAA’s highest graded linemen in week 1 of the 2021 season at 89.5 (albeit against Kent State) after a 75.0 grade in his sophomore 2020 season. Pass protection is his improvement area, only having. 63.0 pass blocking grade last year, although he is better here than some think – in 327 passing snaps last year, he allowed zero sacks. Highly mobile and known as a finisher, it is exciting watching this clip to think about Green playing next to Landon Dickerson next year.
Kenyon Green (Texas A&M LG 55) with a nice pull and puts a body into the dirt. Gotta love it! pic.twitter.com/dJ5tAXhK8d
Interior OL is a priority for the Eagles as they desperately need to prepare for the post Kelce/Brooks/Lane era (more in depth post on the Eagles OL draft strategy and needs here). Drafting Landon last year is a great start and gives the Eagles an option to go after a guard or center in 2022. But as I described in the OL draft post, the Eagles have an OL that will be somewhere in the bottom 10-12 in the league if the future is Mailata, Seumalo, Dickerson, Herbig, Driscoll. In 2022, I am assuming Brooks will be on the team although the Eagles reportedly tried to trade him this offseason as he is 32 and has large cap hits coming up. But even if Brooks is on the team in 2022, you play Green at LG – on a good team, Seumalo is depth and not a starter and while Herbig had a good 2020 in limited action, it is a lot to believe he is a good starter (and he had a poor preseason this year).
I was a little worried if Green would be available at 14, but in the last 15 years of drafts, only 2 times has the first IOL been taken before 14 – Quenton Nelson at 6 in 2018 and Jonathan Cooper at 7 in 2013 (Alijah Vera-Tucker was taken at 14 this year).
Other options: Center Tyler Linderbaum
Round 1-16: Ahmad Gardner, CB Cincinnati
With three picks in four draft spots (14, 16, 17), the ordering of the players isn’t as important. As I’ve written many times, corner is the Eagles most dire need, even though they are in good shape for the 2021 season. Steven Nelson is on a one-year deal and could be re-signed, but if he plays really well he will be expensive. Slay has regressed some the past two seasons and has a $22M cap hit next year – given his age, Howie can’t keep kicking the can down the road with cap manipulations and it is not crazy that the Eagles move on from Slay after this season. They took Zech McPhearson this year, but he could be the top CB on the team next season.
Ahmad Gardner is a 6’2″ corner with good explosiveness that excels in press coverage, he had a 90.0 coverage grade last year and allowed a 35.3 passer rating in college (as a reminder, a QB spiking the ball all game would give a passer rating of 39.6). Impressive stats aside, I’d like to see him against better offenses and WRs as he missed last year’s bowl game against UGA. This year he will go up against Tyler Sneed (East Carolina) and Ty Fryfogle (Indiana), decent but not elite receivers.
I’ve seen some draw comparisons to one of this year’s draft crushes Jaycee Horn because of his aggressiveness, ability in press, and grabby-ness at times. Here’s a clip from Matt Alkire showing his aggressiveness:
If you like corners that couldn't care less about their own well-being and will hit and tackle, I could post Ahmad Gardner all day. He's physical. pic.twitter.com/EQ0A4Rp9h2
If Derek Stingley wasn’t so damn good – we’d be talking more about these freshman last yr! Ahmad Gardner & Tiawan Mullen & Kaiir Elam & Mykael Wright & Tykee Smith & Chris Steele & Trent McDuffe – absolutely insane 2019 CB Class pic.twitter.com/5jLIICcTuv
The 2022 draft class is expected to be loaded at corner and this is the year for the Eagles to repeat 2002 and double up on secondary. With their third first round pick, I’ll take Clemson’s Andrew Booth to pair with Gardner as the Eagles (hopeful) outside corners of the future. At 6’0″ 195 lbs, he isn’t the tallest corner but his athleticism and ball skills shine. In 192 coverage snaps in 2020, he allowed a 59.6 passer rating and earned a 74.7 coverage grade. The knock on Booth is just his limited playing time with only four starts in two years. I think when the draft actually gets here, it may be unlikely Booth is there in the middle of the 1st as corners have been a premium and heavily drafted position the past couple of years (the 1st averages over 5 corners taken).
And in week 1 against Georgia, he displayed his tackling skills:
Unreal play by Clemson CB Andrew Booth Jr. on 3rd down here. Pursues downhill, sheds the block and makes an unbelievable shoestring tackle pic.twitter.com/u03ts1XtSJ
Other options at 16 & 17: WR Chris Olave (heck, draft a 1st round WR every year), DT Jordan Davis, CB Trent McDuffie, S Brandon Joseph, EDGE/OLB Adam Anderson
Round 2-48: Jermayne Lole, DT Arizona State
Most have the Eagles bigger need as defensive end and it could be depending on what they do with Derek Barnett and Josh Sweat after this season. But with BG, Sweat, and Milton Williams who can play inside or outside, I think DT is an underrated need for the Eagles. Fletch is getting up there and Hargrave is signed for a couple more years, but depth is thin behind them. Tuipulotu made the roster and hopefully can develop but is my biggest draft disappointment.
UGA’s DT Jordan Davis and USC’s DE Drake Jackson were two players I was looking for at 48 but both were already gone. Lole is a 6’1″ 310 pound DT that moves better than somebody his size should. He was good for a 85.9 defensive grade last year, 20th in the nation. The Eagles have an underrated need to improve against the run and Lole graded in the top 10 run defenders last year. But he can also push the pocket and produces against the pass – in only four games last year, he had 18 pressures to go with his 17 stops.
Josh Allen had a great 2020, finishing 3rd in composite EPA+CPOE but is a puzzle. Accuracy (as measured by CPOE) is a pretty stable metric from college to pro and QBs usually don’t improve much after around 200 career pass attempts (some data here from @ConorMcQ5). But Allen took his a mid-50% completion percentage and a 0.04 CPOE in college and performed the same his first two years in the league, finishing 41st of 43 eligible QBs in CPOE in 2019-2020. Then in 2021, Allen became an elite QB. Could 2021 be an outlier? Maybe, but there are many reasons to believe that Allen is the QB we saw in 2021. The Bills forecast out improving on offense from 5th in the league to the top offense in 2021 as they return the majority of their offense and have the 4th rated OL for pass block win rate. On the defensive side, the Bills should again be near a top 10 unit as they also return the majority of their starters and have added depth this year. Buffalo also goes from an average schedule in 2020 (16th) to the 3rd easiest schedule in 2021. While they did outperform their expected win total last year by 12% (2 wins), they are another team when you look at their 2020, the close games they won they should have won. There is risk of regression or “bad luck” in 2021 here, but when you look at their schedule it’s hard to find more than 2-3 games that could/should be losses.
New England
The Patriots will be interesting – they have a good OL, ranking 6th in run block win rate and 13th in pass block win rate, will seemingly be a run-heavy team and appear to be a run-heavy offense, but maybe not. Like all teams with a rookie QB, the season is going to be highly dependent on how Mac Jones does. The Patriots are all in on Jones, cutting Cam which makes sense – Jones had elite CPOE in college and in a limited preseason sample size, showed the same. He was the top-rated rookie QB with a 92.2, 1st in adjusted completion percentage, 3rd in CPOE, and 2nd in EPA, 1st in under pressure rating, and 2nd in passing grades in play-action with a 93.7 rating and 114 passer rating. Cam was 27th in the league in composite EPA+CPOE and near the bottom of the league in explosive passes. Damien Harris is good – he is 85th percentile in explosive runs and one of the few RBs with a positive EPA. Their OL is good. And they have hopefully improved their offensive weapons with the addition of maddeningly inconsistent Nelson Agholor, but who was 90th percentile in explosive receptions last year and 79th percentile EPA. There is a distinct offensive EPA advantage when play-action is effectively used and the Patriots are set up to have a good, balanced offense this year that pairs with a dramatically improved defense with the return of Dont’a Hightower and additions in free agency and the draft. Their schedule is more difficult than it appears with 5 games you pencil in as “should be easy wins” (Jets twice, Texans, Saints, and Jacksonville), but if Jones is good, they should improve on their 7 wins last year.
Miami
A lot of people love the Dolphins as a team to surprise with their strong defense and hope that the offense improves, but there are areas of caution. First, no team had better “luck” in 2020, both outperforming their expected win total by almost a full win and benefiting from turnovers. I mentioned elsewhere that I don’t think turnovers are as random or “lucky” as most others believe and there is a bit more year-over-year stability of turnover data than most realize, but the source of turnovers matter. A QB that throws interceptions will be more stable year to year while recovering fumbles or interceptions are less so. The Dolphins are on the wrong side of both types – while Tua had the 12th best interception rate in the league last year, when you adjust for dropped interceptions he goes to 31st in the league. And Xavien Howard had an amazing year with 10 interceptions which helped Miami generate the 2nd most turnovers in the league, but this is very likely to regress (as a comparison, in 2019, Miami was 24th in the league in turnovers generated). Similar to Hurts, I expect Tua to improve in his second year. In 2020, he was 30th in the league in composite EPA+CPOE but like Hurts, Tua had a high CPOE in college which translates to the NFL. The addition of Will Fuller will help as he is 95th percentile in explosive receptions, an area of need for the Dolphins as Tua was the 3rd worst QB in the league (ahead of Goff and Darnold) at explosive plays generated. The Dolphins have a decent floor on wins though because of their schedule – they play the Jets twice, the Texans, Giants, Raiders, Saints, and Jacksonville. Like Philly, it all comes down to their OL improving, Tua’s advancement, and how their new weapons help the offense.
New York Jets
Continuing the theme of the AFC East, the Jets season will largely be determined by a new QB. They have two new starters (rookie Alijah Vera-Tucker and Morgan Moses) on the 30th ranked OL which should be better. Like Mac Jones, Zach Wilson graded out well (second behind Jones) in a very limited preseason with only 20 dropbacks. But since Darnold was 36th in the leage last year in composite EPA+CPOE (only ahead of Wentz and Dwayne Haskins), it is right to think Wilson will be an upgrade. As for weapons, they have effectively swapped Breshad Perriman for Corey Davis, an 8 AV improvement which equates to 4.5% of the total team value. The defense forecasts to still be bad, forecast to be 30th in the league. The Jets get a slightly easier schedule in 2021, going from the 3rd hardest to the 9th hardest. While there are few teams on their schedule that look like definite wins, the team value should return to near their 2019 level where they were still a bad team but snuck some unexpected wins.
AFC North
Team
Exp Team Value
Exp 2021 Wins
vs. Over/Under
Cleveland
243
12.3
Over (10.5)
Baltimore
228
10.7
Push (11.0)
Pittsburgh
189
6.6
Under (8.5)
Cincinnati
179
5.4
Under (6.5)
Cleveland
The Browns significantly outperformed their expected win total last year by 19%, equal to 3 wins. And while they have the 3rd easiest schedule in 2021, they also had the 3rd easiest last year. Despite that, they still model out to improve on last year with 12.6 wins as they added more than they lost in free agency. Their weakness last year was defense and it should be be improved, going from 25th to 18th in the league. The worst part of the defense was the secondary and they have added Troy Hill (71.9 coverage grade) and John Johnson (86.6 grade) who are big upgrades over departed Terrance Marshall and Karl Joseph. And while it is difficult to rely on rookies, they drafted Greg Newsome and JOK (a LB that had the second best slot coverage grade in the NCAA last year) that will see good playing time. The Browns DL is still not great, 14th in pass rush win rate and only 30th in run stop win rate last year and neither Clowney nor Malik Jackson should be expected to improve that much. On the offensive side, the Browns should have one of the top offenses in the league – their OL returns and ranked 2nd in pass block win rate and 13th in run block win rate last year. Baker ranked 11th in the league in composite EPA+CPOE and is 77th percentile in explosive passes, despite the Browns being a heavier run team.
Baltimore
The Ravens underperformed their expected win total last year, going 1-4 in one score games. Their defense should be ranked near top 10 with a good secondary and their offense will be better, predicted to be 6th in the league. Lamar Jackson was 16th in the league in composite EPA+CPOE in 2020 but what he can do running is what matters, being one of the highest value QBs in the league when you add rushing. The Ravens had a top 10 OL in 2020 and are changing several players on the line (Villanueva and Ronnie Stanley back from injury for Brown and Fluker at the tackles, Bozeman for Skura at center), but net should be equal to last year. This is one of the forecasts that is my least favorite – it’s hard to find a lot of losses on their schedule and I think 11 wins could be low.
Pittsburgh
Along with the Cardinals, the Steelers is probably the team I am most different from consensus on. And it’s a prediction I’ve looked at over and over because it is saying the Tomlin will do something he has never done which is win fewer than 8 games. But I just don’t see a good 2021 season for them. First, the Steelers are likely to regress in almost every area: in 2020, they benefited from good luck and outperformed their expected wins by 9% (1.5 games), going 7-2 in one score games. They were the 5th healthiest team in 2020, which is likely to regress. And they go from one of the easiest schedules in 2020 to the league’s most difficult schedule in 2021. Because of their cap situation, they lost much more in free agency than they gained, losing 3 of 5 starting OL, Steven Nelson and Mike Hilton in the secondary, and LB Bud Dupree while only adding OL Trai Turner as an expected starter. Their OL was 24th in run block win rate and 28th in pass block win rate last year and will be worse in 2021, predicted to be the second worst OL in the league. Nobody should question Kevin Colbert as the Steelers have been amazing at personnel, but it reeks of “let’s try one more time with Ben”, ignoring analytics and going RB and TE in the first two rounds when impact OL prospects like Cosmi, Radunz, and Creed Humphrey all were there to get in the 2nd at their pick or with a small trade-up. Now, the Steelers swap Villanueva (74.8 blocking grade) for Okorafor (57.5) at LT and bring in Zach Banner at RT who may not be recovered from his ACL injury. Rookie 4th rounder RT Dan Moore is likely to play to start the season. He played well in the preseason but it is a lot to ask a rookie tackle to be impactful. They had the top-rated defense in 2020 and it is still expected to be very good, but with a worse secondary (even after the late trade for Ahkello Witherspoon), their defense is forecasted drop some to 9th in the league. And Ben has clearly been regressing, finishing 24th in the league in composite EPA+CPOE last year, leading the Steelers to 30th in the league in explosive play rate and a plodding offense with one of the lowest yards per completion in the league and trying to reinvigorate a running game while ignoring the OL as the common issue. If somehow the OL is better and the secondary holds up, I could be horribly wrong here but this is one of the team predictions I feel most comfortable with.
Cincinnati
5.5 wins is one that still feels high to me as the Bengals have the 10th hardest schedule in 2021, Burrow will only be 9 months post his injury and while cleared to play, I cannot imagine he will be near 100%, and the Bengals look to have bottom of the league offensive and defensive units. Much has been written on their draft and I am one of many that thought a tackle was way more valuable than a WR (even if Chase was lighting it up). The Bengals were 29th in pass block win rate and 27th in run block win rate and the only change was Riley Reiff (71.4 grade), an upgrade over Bobby Hart (66.3). But that isn’t enough. It’s hard to find more than 4 wins on their schedule, but I will leave the model where it is.
AFC South
Team
Exp Team Value
Exp 2021 Wins
vs. Over/Under
Tennessee
222
10.1
Over (9.0)
Indianapolis
199
7.6
Under (9.0)
Jacksonville
175
5.0
Under (6.5)
Houston
156
3.0
Under (4.0)
Tennessee
The Titans had the second easiest schedule in 2020 but now have the league’s easiest schedule in 2021. They did have a good amount of “luck”, outperforming their expected wins by 12% or 2 wins. While there is a lot of debate analytically about Tannehill, he has been at the top of the league in composite EPA+CPOE, finishing 2nd behind Aaron Rodgers last year. He is clearly helped by Derrick Henry and benefits from getting to pass against a stacked box more than most QBs, but his results are what they are. Their offense will be top 10 in the league and they replace Corey Davis with Julio, and there is some hope their OL can be a bit better than last year where they finished 20th in run block win rate and 24th in pass block win rate. On the defensive side, they should improve from one of the worst defenses in the league to 24th – they added in free agency with Bud Dupree and Janoris Jenkins and should expect a better secondary with advancement of their youth (Fulton, Farley, Molden). I think this will be a worse division than expected and despite some negative regression, Tennessee should still be the top team here and exceed their win expectations.
Indianapolis
The Colts are a difficult team to model. On paper, they still have a good team with top-half of the league offensive (12th) and defensive units (13th). But Wentz is a question mark and is clearly a downgrade from what Indy had last year with Philip Rivers – Rivers finished 12th in the league in composite EPA+CPOE (right with Dak Prescott, Baker Mayfield, and Russell Wilson) and Wentz has not had a season like that since his 2017 season. And, while it is difficult to model injuries as the Colts were about league average last year with adjusted games lost due to injury, it sure seems like 2021 is headed towards a high impact injury year. Wentz had foot surgery and is missing time due to Covid exposure, three offensive linemen are out with Quentin Nelson (foot surgery), Eric Fisher (achilles), and Ryan Kelly (less serious elbow injury and Covid), and TY Hilton with neck surgery. They keep a relatively easy schedule with the 6th easiest schedule, but had the league’s easiest schedule in 2020. I don’t love this forecast as so much comes down to health and how Wentz plays. But even with their injuries, there are 7-8 games on their schedule that should be wins as they get Houston and Jacksonville twice as well as Arizona, the Jets, Raiders, and Dolphins. But I am confident they are a worse team than last year and not likely to be in the playoff hunt.
Jacksonville
Jacksonville’s three QBs last year finished 25th (Minshew), 43rd (Glennon), and 45th (Luton) in composite EPA+CPOE – Trevor Lawrence doesn’t have to have an elite rookie season to expect a sizable upgrade at QB. Of rookie QBs the past two seasons, five (Tua, Burrow, Herbert, Lock, Murray) had rookie seasons better than the Jaguars QBs last year and only three (Daniel Jones, Haskins, and Minshew) were worse. Lawrence will be a definite upgrade. That said, they are still expected to be near the bottom of the league on offense (27th) and defense (26th). the upside is that Jacksonville underperformed their expected win total last year by 11% (2 games) and have the 6th easiest schedule after having a middle of the league SoS last year. This is a forecast I don’t love and think Lawrence gives them a chance to outperform their 5.1 expected wins just because of the teams they play.
Houston
Where to start… Houston will obviously be bad as it is not expected Watson will play. They will get worse on defense, forecasted to be 31st in the league, and will obviously be worse on offense, dropping from middle of the league to 23rd. They were big net losers in free agency, losing one quarter of their expected team value led by Nick Martin, JJ Watt, Will Fuller, and Zach Fulton and replacing their holes with lesser players (WR Anthony Miller, DL Maliek Collins) or question marks (C Justin Britt who hasn’t played in two years). The Texans underperformed their expected win total last year by a good amount (11%) and went 2-5 in one score games, but they just don’t have much talent and sometimes losing close games isn’t just luck.
AFC West
Team
Exp Team Value
Exp 2021 Wins
vs. Over/Under
Kansas City
247
12.7
Push (12.5)
LA Chargers
227
10.6
Over (9.5)
Denver
225
10.4
Over (8.5)
Las Vegas
172
4.7
Under (7.0)
Kansas City
The Chiefs actually outperformed their expected wins last year by a league-leading 19% (or 3 wins). Under or over performing expected wins, which are based on actual point differentials, is generally an area of regression but sometimes they aren’t luck, especially when you have Mahomes – the best QB in the league will win you close games. The Chief go from the 8th easiest schedule to the 6th hardest, but again, when you are one of the top teams in the league it is hard to find many losses on their schedule. On the positive side, their clear weakness last year was the offensive line and it has clearly been upgraded with Orlando Brown at LT and snagging Creed Humphrey (who should have been taken earlier by center-needy teams like the Rams or Steelers) is a big upgrade – he had a 73.7 grade in the preseason and is slated to start under Reid who rarely starts rookies. When your expected win total is 12.5, it is hard to exceed that but I think the Chiefs could do so.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers model is one I had to re-look at as it has a fairly big jump in their defensive ranking for 2021, going from middle of the league to 6th in 2021. But they should be much better – they have 7 players on defense that are young in career where year-over-year improvements are historically seen and modeled in. They also get Derwin James back from missing all of 2020 and Joey Bosa who missed almost half the season – the difference of those two alone account for 7% of the teams total expected value. And they didn’t lose anything in free agency – Casey Hayward (59.5 coverage grade) will be replaced by rookie Asante Samuel, but Samuel doesn’t have to be great to be a plus and Uchenna Nwosu equals Melvin Ingrahams output (both graded out at 72 and have equal AV value). On the offensive side, Herbert was middle of the league statistically in his rookie season, finishing 18th in composite EPA+CPOE and middle of the league in explosive plays and QBs will typically improve into the second year. I am not as bullish on Herbert as many today as his college CPOE (which is one of the most stable metrics from college to pro) was average.
Denver
Denver goes from the 5th hardest schedule in 2020 to the 5th easiest in 2021. Obviously QB is the question area and Denver made a mistake passing on Fields, but Bridgewater is an upgrade over Lock – Bridgewater was 19th in the league in composite EPA+CPOE vs. Lock at 38th. Their defense is forecasted to improve and be the 4th best defense in the league with the return of Von Miller and riches in the secondary. Their offense was one of the worst in the league last year but should improve all the way to 25th in the league… joking aside, Bridgewater should be a good enough upgrade to make use of their talent at WR and TE and improve on their 4-7 record in one-score games.
Las Vegas
There isn’t really anything that you can point to as improving the Raiders over 2020. They lost more in free agency than they gained and are counting on rookie Alex Leatherwood at LT and Nick Martin or Andre James to replace C Rodney Hudson. They outperformed their expected wins last year by almost a full win, meaning regression is likely. They also go from the 6th hardest schedule in 2020 to the 3rd hardest schedule in 2021. Carr is a good QB, finishing last year 9th in the league in composite EPA+CPOE. The upside for the Raiders are a bigger jump by their young players (Ruggs, Bryan Edwards, Josh Jacobs, Amik Roberson, and rookie Trevon Moehrig). This is a forecast that I think could be low because of the young players, but the Raiders are more likely to be worse than their line than better.
AFC Summary
Below summarizes the AFC with each team’s modeled 2021 win projection, the current over/under win total betting line, difference from O/U line, 2020 actual win total, and difference from 2020 wins.
A few call outs:
The Bills, Browns, Titans, Chargers, and Broncos are the teams modeled to most beat their current over/under win totals (more than a one game positive difference).
The Bengals, Steelers, Colts, Jaguars, Texans, and Raiders are the teams most expected to underperform their over/under win totals.
The biggest year-over-year win total improvements are the Broncos (+5.4), Jaguars (+4.0), Chargers (+3.6), Jets (+3.1), and Patriots (+2.2).
The biggest year-over-year win decreases are the Steelers (-5.4), Colts (-3.4), Raiders (-3.3), Dolphins (-1.4), and Chiefs (-1.3).
As explained in many of the team descriptions, there are some of these I like more than others. In the AFC, I feel most comfortable with the predictions for the Steelers, Broncos, Colts, and Browns.
I included this in the NFC win prediction post, but wanted to include again here – this shows the average year-over-year win total changes in the league. This shows that it isn’t uncommon for large win total swings year-to-year.
2021 Fantasy Football, Philadelphia Eagles Version
QB Jalen Hurts
Passing: 4025 yards 31 TD 14 int
Rushing: 715 rushing 7 TD
Will probably go rounds 8-10, keeper leagues likely higher, top 10 QB potential, ranked 120th
RB Miles Sanders
Rushing: 233 carries 1021 yards 8 TD
Receiving: 40 receptions 365 Receiving yards 3 TD
Early to mid 3rd rd selection, approx 30th ranked player
RB Kenneth Gainwell
Rushing: 72 carries 313 yards 4 TD
Receiving: 28 receptions 251 yards 2 TD
End of draft or waiver wire selection to handcuff with your Miles Sanders pick
WR DeVonta Smith
Receiving: 65 reception 880 yards 7 Touchdowns
Probable rounds 6-8, lot higher in a keeper league, ranked around 75th player
WR Jalen Reagor
Receiving: 57 receptions 750 yards 5 Touchdowns
Likely falling to round 9-10, ranked around 105-115
WR Quez Watkins
Receiving: 36 receptions 502 yards 4 Touchdowns
Probable waiver wire with big sleeper potential for much more
TE Dallas Goddert
Receiving: 61 receptions 711 yards 5 Touchdowns
Early to mid 8th, approximately 90-100th player off the board
Here I will give my win projection forecasts for the NFC teams in the 2021 season using this model.
NFC East
Team
Exp Team Value
Exp 2021 Wins
vs. Over/Under
Washington
215
9.6
Over (8.5)
Philadelphia
210
8.9
Over (6.5)
Dallas
195
7.4
Under (9.0)
New York
184
6.1
Under (7.0)
Washington
The still-unnamed WFT (please let it be Redhogs) forecast out to repeat as NFC East champs by just over a half game, even with one of the harder schedules in the league. While many are dismissing Washington due to Fitzpatrick, their team value is lifted with the top value defense in the league. And Fitzpatrick was 7th in the league last year in composite EPA+CPOE (min 200 attempts), better than any other NFC East starting QB. Add in their offensive weapons and they should be able to do what few do and repeat as NFC East champs.
Philadelphia
Philly is the team with the greatest difference vs. national expectations in the NFC East. They were the only NFC East team in 2020 with material “bad luck”, underperforming their expected wins by 6%. 2021 forecasts do not assume extreme positive play – Hurts is modeled as an average QB, the OL gets an uptick due to fewer lost games due to injury, the secondary models the same as 2020, and improvements in DL and WR. The Eagles project to be “ok” on both sides, 14th in the league in both offense and defense, but that is enough to give a big improvement vs. 2020. While this may reek of a “homer” article, it is what the aggregate team value shows (and last year, this modeled the Eagles at 4.7 wins).
Dallas
This will be another widely criticized forecast as many have the Cowboys predicted to win the NFC East. They get Dak back who is a top 7ish QB in the league and he models out as one of the best QBs with over 16 projected AV, but there is risk of his underperformance coming back from a bad injury. Their WRs are elite but Zeke is already regressing, dropping below 30% explosive run rate in 2020 and over 1,200 career carries where RBs dramatically regress. Like Philly, Dallas gets a lift from a healthy offensive line, but their defense still projects as an issue (22nd in the league).
New York
Not much surprise here as NY was not good last year, were net losers in the offseason with more free agency losses than adds, and a team seemingly set up trying to win running the ball (analytics spoiler, this is not how you win in the NFL). Kenny Golladay is a nice add and they drafted Kadarius Toney, but both have been injured. They project to have the 20th offense and 29th defense in the league and while I don’t have a “dysfunction” modifier in this model, the Giants legitimately deserve one with weekly retirements and all-out brawl during camp. I actually think my 6.1 win prediction is high.
NFC North
Team
Exp Team Value
Exp 2021 Wins
vs. Over/Under
Green Bay
215
12.5
Over (10.0)
Minnesota
225
10.7
Over (9.0)
Chicago
185
6.2
Under (7.5)
Detroit
155
2.9
Under (4.5)
Green Bay
No surprise here as Green Bay projects to win the NFC North, solid on both sides with the projected 3rd best offense and 12th rated defense in terms of player value. Performance-wise, Green Bay’s defense has not lived up to the sum of its parts, finishing 2020 17th in the league in DVOA. But they have better players than the overall performance has shown which is why they forecast better in 2021 – this will be up to Joe Barry to get the most out of this defense (and it is reasonable to expect improvement here). They feature several of the highest rated players in the model with Rodgers, Davante Adams, Jaire Alexander, Aaron Jones, and David Bakhtiari with one of the better overall offensive lines in the league.
Minnesota
The Vikings 10.7 forecasted wins is one of a few teams that surprised me, mostly because of Kirk Cousins but the Vikings have had an effective offense and Cousins has consistently provided value, ending as the 9th highest rated QB in 2020 in composite EPA+CPOE. There was a lot of turnover on the defensive side that is probably a net positive vs. last year, especially in the secondary. They forecast to have the 9th best offense (even with some regression of Justin Jefferson modeled in) and the 17th highest value defense.
Chicago
Why Andy Dalton..? I am one of many that thinks several teams like Denver, Carolina, and Atlanta will regret not drafting Justin Fields and I don’t understand the Bears starting Dalton. Yes, the Bears OL is scary bad and maybe they don’t want to rush Fields with the tough start to the schedule, but I would trust the better talent. Their OL is bad and they won’t be able to count on Teven Jenkins (I didn’t like this pick as Samuel Cosmi was one of “my guys” in the draft and would have given the Bears an instant starting tackle over Jenkins who I am not sure isn’t a guard). A tougher than average schedule projects the Bears at 6.2 wins with the 15th ranked defense and 26th ranked offense. How quickly they switch to Fields and how Fields performs is obviously the big swing point that can change this.
Detroit
I have been working with this win projection model for months and waited to final rosters to finalize it. Early on, Detroit was modeling out between 4 and 5 wins which is awful but that always felt high still. With the final model, Detroit does come in really low at 2.9 wins. They have the 3rd toughest schedule, amazingly actually outperformed their 2020 value by 5% (meaning further regression is likely), have a major downgrade at QB with Goff who statistically was bad in one of the most favorable situations in LA, and no offensive weapons. Coaching does not factor into my model but on the positive side, not having Matt Patricia will help them. They are projected to have the worst offense in the league and the 24th ranked defense.
NFC South
Team
Exp Team Value
Exp 2021 Wins
vs. Over/Under
Tampa Bay
265
15.0
Over (12.0)
Carolina
202
8.1
Over (7.5)
Atlanta
196
7.5
Push (7.5)
New Orleans
197
7.5
Under (9.0)
Tampa Bay
While there are always surprises in the NFL, I’m pretty confident the NFC South is going to be the least interesting division this year. Tampa Bay returns their entire Super Bowl team, has good depth, have a couple of draft picks that have shined (Joe Tryon and KJ Britt) that will further add to depth, and the Buccaneers have the 6th easiest schedule this year. It seems crazy modeling a 15-2 season but when you look at their schedule, you have the Rams and Bills which are the only two on-paper challenges. The Falcons could sneak a win and there’s probably a loss due to sitting starters late in the season. Nothing about their 2020 was a fluke except some injury luck and they actually underperformed their expected 2020 win total by 6% with two of their 2020 losses coming to New Orleans which won’t happen this year.
Carolina
This was another team I kept questioning the data as most view them as a likely “under” in 2021 with little faith in Darnold. But one thing to note is Carolina experienced one of the highest levels of analytical “bad luck” in 2020, underperforming their expected win total by 11% (or almost two wins), going 3-6 in one-score games. Darnold projects to be pretty bad with the 21st ranked offense, but they have good WRs with preseason standout Terrace Marshall not even being one of the top three and they get Christian McCaffrey back. There are a lot of new players on defense which have the potential to lift their defense into the top half of the league, making 8-9 very attainable.
Atlanta
Of all the predictions, this is the one I probably feel least good about and think the Falcons can outperform. Atlanta had the most 2020 “bad luck”, going 1-7 in one-score games which you expect to positively adjust. I have them with an average schedule (16th hardest) in 2021 versus one of the hardest schedules in 2020. The South is worse this year primarily because of New Orleans, who the Falcons lost to twice last year. But they are still predicted to have near bottom-half units in 2021 with the 15th ranked offense and 23rd ranked defense. They lost Julio but Calvin Ridley excelled when Julio was out. While most TEs don’t perform their first year, Pitts will be an exception and a player I worry about covering. But the way to look at it is he needs to replace Julio which is a lot to ask. Their OL is a big question area and the run game is not good. But I could still see Atlanta outperforming this 7.5 prediction primarily due to less bad luck than 2020 and an easier division.
New Orleans
While I don’t feel good about the Atlanta prediction, New Orleans is one I feel really good about and actually think they do worse than modeled. They had “good luck” in 2020 outperforming their expected win total by 8%, they were near the top of the league in injury luck in 2020, they lost more in free agency than they gained with 7 starters including a Hall of Fame QB leaving while only really adding Brian Poole in the secondary. Oh, and they have a top-five hardest 2021 schedule. This 7.5 win projection seems generous but I’ll go with the data.
NFC West
Team
Exp Team Value
Exp 2021 Wins
vs. Over/Under
Los Angeles
229
11.7
Over (10.5)
San Francisco
230
11.1
Over (10.5)
Seattle
214
9.4
Under (10.0)
Arizona
173
4.9
Under (8.5)
Los Angeles
In what most believe will be the toughest division in football, I have the 49ers and Rams even with a slight edge to the Rams. With a major upgrade at QB, the Rams offense should improve in 2021 from a middle of the league ranking in 2020. They lost Cam Akers but both Darrell Henderson and newly acquired Sony Michel will fill in fine as both are top 25th percentile in explosive rush rate (both higher than Akers). Their defense is projected to be 2nd in the league and anytime your strengths are pass rush (Aaron Donald) and coverage (Jalen Ramsey and Darious Williams), you are positioned right for today’s league.
San Francisco
San Francisco had some of the worst luck in 2020, underperforming their expected win total by almost 11% (or two wins) and near the league bottom in turnover margin (I don’t see as much randomness in turnover margin as many who view it as an area of luck due for regression). In 2021, SF has the 3rd easiest schedule and get Nick Boas back from injury. So there is a lot to look at for positive regression vs. 2020. Like several teams, the QB situation can swing this but I view Garoppolo better than many do – in 2020, he was 13th in the league in composite EPA+CPOE (min 150 attempts), right with Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Philip Rivers, and Dak Prescott. Like the Rams, they will feature a better defense, projected to be 5th best in the league in 2021.
Seattle
Seattle is a clear underperformance candidate as they were the 3rd “luckiest” team last year, outperforming their expected win total by 13%, or over 2 games, and going 7-3 in one-score games. Their offense will be good, projected to be 7th in the league with Russell Wilson, DK, and a better than recognized OL. They also have an easier schedule outside of the NFC West, playing the NFC North, New Orleans, Houston, and Jacksonville but will not repeat going 3-1 against the Rams and 49ers this year. Their defense is projected to drop from 16th to 25th in the league with downgrades in the secondary. This isn’t one of my favorite predictions just because of Russell – he has never won fewer than 10 games and it is hard to go against a top QB and predict a sub-10 win season (in a 17 game season). But they clearly will be in a tougher division with defensive downgrades.
Arizona
Arizona is the team I have the biggest difference from their over/under win total, forecasting a pretty bad team at 4.9 wins. Early in the offseason, they were a trendy pick to outperform but now most view them as a boom or bust team. I love Kyler Murray and think any QB with true value on the ground gives teams a distinct advantage, but there is a lot going against Arizona and their overall talent level is overrated. They have the 7th hardest schedule in 2021, a middle of the league offense (projected to be 16th), and a defense that was the strength of their 2020 season that has the potential to be really bad in 2021 (projected to be 27th). Their cornerback situation is probably the worst in the league and that was before Malcolm Butler retired this past week. Unless they add a corner, they will start Byron Murphy (an unimpressive 63.3 grade in coverage last year), Robert Alford (an even worse 48.2 coverage grade last year and only 334 coverage naps over 8 seasons), and 4th round rookie Marco Wilson. They have to add somebody, maybe bringing back Dre Kirikpatrick, but are there CB options out there that fill the holes they have? Along with New Orleans, Arizona is the team I feel most comfortable with the big drop in projected wins.
NFC Summary
Below summarizes the NFC with each team’s modeled 2021 win projection, the current over/under win total betting line, difference from O/U line, 2020 actual win total, and difference from 2020 wins.
A few call outs:
The Eagles, Packers, Buccaneers, Vikings, and Rams are the teams modeled to most beat their current over/under win totals (more than a one game positive difference).
The Cardinals, Cowboys, Lions, Bears, and Saints are the teams most expected to underperform their over/under win totals.
The biggest year-over-year win total improvements are the 49ers (+5.0), Eagles (+4.9), Buccaneers (+4.0), Vikings (+3.8), and Falcons (+3.5).
The biggest year-over-year win decreases are the Saints (-4.5), Cardinals (-3.1), Seahawks (-2.6), and Lions (-2.1).
This model has bigger win total movements (plus and minus 4 or 5 games) than most 2021 forecasts. I looked at the typical year-over-year win total changes, shown below:
On average, each year about half of the league (16.4 teams) will be +/- 2 wins from their prior year. But we also will have 6 teams that have a win total +/-6 or more games different than their prior year win total.
While this model has subjectivity in it as described in the link at the top, I avoided adjusting any team that didn’t come out how I expected as the league surprises us every year. The few teams that I feel best on include the Eagles (a full article explaining why is here), Saints, Cardinals, Buccaneers, and Lions. The predictions I feel least confident in are the Falcons, Cowboys, Bears, and Seahawks.
Don’t Sweat It, The Tenacity & Evolution of Josh
The one thing we all know that makes a cornerbacks life easier is a good pass rush. The Eagles have had a good to very good D line for years, and Josh Sweat is here to make sure that tradition continues. But the path to get there was filled with many obstacles.
In September 2014, during his Senior year at Oscar Smith High School in Chesapeake Virginia, Josh went down with an injury that has been described by all as gruesome, devastating and potentially career ending. The possibility of amputation due to the severity of knee and arterial damage (which can cause no blood flow to the lower leg) was also discussed by the Doctors upon his arrival at the hospital.
Sweat stated “The bottom of the leg would’ve died if it didn’t have enough blood, arteries can be repaired, but if it’s damaged too much, then you have to remove it.”
Josh said that these things were told to him before any tests had been run, and thankfully didn’t prove to be true. He stated he was stubborn when he was told the information and that he didn’t ever really believe it, a trait he uses to his advantage while persevering through negativity for those who ever doubted his ability to make it to the NFL.
2014 Oscar Harris Head football Coach echoed Josh’ tenacious work ethic as well as the unfortunate injury. He told The Virginian-Pilot “It’s frustrating because he represents everything good about football, He’s also one of the best kids I’ve ever come across in my life. Nobody works harder and does more for his team.
After the injury Sweat was confined to a wheelchair for two and half months, but started his rehab 2 weeks post op. He began the long road to recovery and intense rehab like he does everything else, full steam ahead. Josh also researched workouts that could assist in a faster healing process.
While rehabbing, Sweat managed to be present throughout the football season with his High School teammates. He watched from the bench during the games and he even managed to walk with the players, on crutches, for Senior night. There was never a doubt in his mind that he wouldn’t be back on the field.
Sweats father, William Washington stated back in 2015 “It was never an Oh my God, I’m hurt. We didn’t go through that he (Josh) never had that down moment, people talk about that, but he’s never had that down moment. He’s always knew he would get himself back together. He knew he would play again.”
The positive attitude, hardwork and determination paid off. Josh enrolled with Florida State in January of 2015, and by the start of their season he was back doing what he loves, playing football.
According to his college coaches, from the first day on the field, Josh never practiced or played with any trepidation of re injuring himself.
His 2015 Head Coach, Jimbo Fisher “Major injuries like that are much more mental than they are physical, It takes courage. That’s a courageous young man.”
Josh played his entire college career at Florida State where he amassed 14.5 sacks, 29 tackles for a loss and even 1 int in his 35 collegiate games. He had played himself back into reaching his dream of making it into the NFL and started preparing for the draft.
Almost four years after the injury, team doctors for most Pro franchises were reviewing the medicals on his knee as well as watching his performance at the NFL Combine. Pre-draft Josh stated the importance of that day in Indianapolis “When I went to the Combine, I checked out and there’s nothing wrong. But I knew that coming into it. If I ran fast and jumped high, the odds would be in my favor.”
Many teams left impressed and all that left to do was wait to see which franchise he would be playing for.
The Philadelphia Eagles selected Josh in the fourth round with the 130th overall pick of the 2018 NFL Draft. The Team and fans have been happy they did. Sweat has been improving year over year since he arrived. After only playing 68 snaps in 2018 due to an ankle injury, he collected 4 sacks in 2019 and last season (2020) he finished with 6, one every 70.2 snaps. (per Pro Football Focus)
Many players and coaches on the Eagles would be surprised if he didn’t reach double digits this season.
Josh has been dominating in the 2021 training camp. Whether he has a hand on the ground or standing to rush for the first time in his NFL career, he has been causing problems for every OL he has faced.
Many of his teammates have taken notice:
Jalen Hurts “Athleticism off the charts. Even when I played against him at Florida State, when I was at Alabama, he was circled on the scouting report. The length he has, he can be disruptive, especially in the read-option game.”
Jordan Mailata “Sweat is a damn good defensive end, He’s going to be a threat this year.”
Andre Dillard “The dude is an animal”
Ryan Kerrigan “ He is going to be a problem for years to come”
Lane Johnson “He’s been getting a lot of sacks in training camp”
Brandon Graham “Sweaty, I know he’s coming. He’s the future. I can see it.”
The coaching staff sees it too. Josh has been working with new Eagles Defensive Line Coach Tracy Rocker this training camp, and the improvement has been evident. Never one to take all the credit for his hard work alone, he stated he has learned from every coach he has worked with over the years and put them all into his game.
“I took something from every single one of (defensive line coaches), each one of them taught me something different.”
Learning and putting what he knows to practice in games has come to fruition. The sky is the limit for a man who just 7 years ago didn’t know if he would ever walk again, much less play football.
Many have noted that Sweats’ career has paralleled that of Brandon Grahams’ in that they both overcame injuries and continue to exceed and improve due to their unrelenting work ethic. Could the Eagles have another Super Bowl hero in the making on their roster? The Eagles Brass and Nation of fans certainly hope so. Josh has plenty of motivation this season as he is playing for an extension or second contract. Most doubt that runs through his mind as much as creating havoc for the opposing offenses he will face. He has overcome so much that he doesn’t Sweat the small stuff.
***UPDATED BELOW 9-18-21***
Josh signed a new contract with the Philadelphia Eagles worth a reported $40 million with a max value of $42 million and $26.92guaranteed.
David
Thank You for reading
Follow me @PHLEagleNews
Josh’ High School, Oscar Smith, is currently raising money to help purchase items for the football team not covered by the school’s athletic budget such as Uniforms, pre-game meals, summer practice bus transportation and field marking paint for the practice and game fields, just to name a few. If you could help with a donation or just forward the information on so it may find someone who can it would be greatly appreciated. Thank You as always!
Josh #2 leading his HS school team out the Tiger Cage
to QB1Jalen Reagor with a couple remarkable one handed grabsQuez Watkins’ route running and speed on display in camp and gamesJordan Mailata mauling every LinemanZech McPhearson during training campDeVonta Smith coming back from injury to playJosh Sweat dominating all camp longLandon Dickerson’s choice of overalls? Maybe??? Him starting the season on the active 53 man roster? Definitely! The big guy is ready for practice.
Nick Siriannis’ Shirts
Boston Scott being relieved of his body guard dutiesZech delivering delicious water ice treatsTrading a 6th RD pick for Gardner Minshew
And maybe, most importantly, entering the 2021 season relatively…
David
Follow me at @PHLEagleNews
And How Are Our Other Round 2 Targets Doing?
Last week I looked back at the Eagles’ top round 1 draft targets to see how each was doing in preseason. This week, I’ll look at our favorites and often-mocked players at pick 37. I think a lot of Philly was surprised with the Eagles 2nd round pick of Landon Dickerson, not because he wasn’t a good pick but because Howie had been shying away from injuries in 2020. I love the pick of Landon, but there were several other players in play.
Again, I am subjectively ordering these starting with who I think is having the best preseason.
1. Terrace Marshall
Summary: Terrace dropped way too far in the draft and would have been a great pick at 37 if we did not get DeVonta Marshall was probably the Eagles top pre-draft wish at 37 with most worried if he would still be there when the Eagles picked. He ended up sliding all the way to 59, giving the Panthers what was probably the most commonly mocked Eagles draft with R1 Horn and R2 Marshall. Marshall missed OTAs as he healed but now that preseason has started, he is battling for the WR3 spot behind Robby Anderson and DJ Moore with some thoughts that he will be the Panthers “big slot” receiver – at his size, this would be a matchup issue for many teams. Rhule said they are trying to “force feed Terrace and bring him along as fast as we can”. Here he is beating other favorite Jaycee Horn:
Terrace Marshall RZ fade w/ Jaycee Horn in coverage.
Marshall has played a good amount of slot and outside this preseason and think he will see the field plenty this year as he put up some gaudy numbers in limited action as the highest rated receiver with at least 5 targets in the preseason:
As we approach halftime, here’s Terrace Marshall’s preseason production thru 6 quarters.
Summary: The top graded rookie center so far I thought if the Eagles went center, it would have been Creed – we are only one year removed from Howie declaring his (ever-changing) draft philosophy being “can they run, do they love football, and are they healthy?” Landon was the best center prospect, but I never imagined Howie going with his injury history.
This is already looking like a good center class (with 2022 expected to be another) but I am still shocked at some of the teams that passed on centers – specifically I don’t know what the Rams were thinking and the Steelers needed a center and a tackle. The Chiefs were one of several teams that really needed a center and got a starting center. We all know Andy Reid’s resistance to playing rookies quickly and he spoke about this regarding Creed, but he will be the starting center. With 52 snaps player so far, Creed is the only rookie with a grade over 80 in both run and pass blocking and has allowed 0 pressures.
As for camp clips, this is my favorite so far of Creed:
I would have been super happy with Creed and time will tell on Landon, which obviously all comes down to his health.
3. Trevon Moehrig
There wasn’t a great chance of the Eagles taking Moehrig as it wasn’t a priority position, but he’s another player that got interesting from a BPA perspective. He was the consensus best safety in the draft and viewed as a late teens / early twenties pick but dropped due to a back injury.
He has the Raiders starting free safety spot already and has impressed teammates with how he works, earning the nickname “Silent Assassin”. In joint practice with the Rams, Moehrig picked off Stafford once and dropped a second interception.
It is kinda fun searching Twitter posts on Moehrig because there are a bunch of “my favorite team shoulda drafted Moehrig” draft-remorse tweets out there like:
4. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah
Summary: It was nice to dream of getting an LB high… Probably the biggest favorite of Eagles fans as day 1 ended as he was predicted to go as high as the teens, leading to pre-day 2 re-mocks with JOK as a heavy target. He had legendarily entertaining highlights where he routinely destroyed people and had the 2nd best slot coverage grade in the NCAA (including defensive backs, not just linebackers), but the big question was his size and fit in the league with many thinking he may be a safety or hybrid defender to put on TEs and other mismatches. Which would have fit a great need for the Eagles but at the time of the draft, maybe a little unclear if it fit Sirianni and Gannon’s defense (he was clearly a player Howie would not have taken prior).
JOK missed time due to Covid and had a good first preseason game but is still a bit buried on the Browns depth chart and not expected to be ready to start the year. He has flashed his speed in games:
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah was FLYING around the field yesterday 🔥
It probably was never realistic that the Eagles would have taken JOK as while they are looking to hybrid defenders more (JaCoby is one, but later in the draft), Howie continues to not invest in LB high.
5. Asante Samuel Jr.
Summary: Some nice highlight INTs but has been giving up receptions After DeVonta dropped and was taken in the first, almost all of Philly turned their focus to corner which was the biggest need for the team. Historically, CB is the most heavily drafted position in the first 2 rounds (on average 5.1 are taken in the 1st round, 8 through 2 rounds) and 2021 was the same. By the time the Eagles pick came, the top CBs were gone but also some borderline round 1 / 2 corners like Tyson Campbell and Eric Stokes, making Asante the most logical remaining target for the Eagles as they did have a pre-draft virtual meeting with him.
Asante has had a couple of pretty well-shared highlights, picking off Jimmy G both in a joint practice and in game 2 on a tipped ball.
Asante has had 23 coverage snaps in preseason and 4 targets, but has allowed 3 receptions for an 11.3 average and 25 yards after catch. Small sample size caveat and the Chargers are happy with this pick, but he has some growth to show. He’s currently behind Chris Harris Jr. on the depth chart for slot corner. Harris had a 57.4 coverage grade last year and has shown decline over the past two years so I expect Asante to play a good amount and will have a chance to take this position this year.
If you have read any of my draft stuff, you know I wanted a top corner and once we went with DeVonta, the chances of getting a really good corner drops significantly by the second. Of these targets above, I actually was most interested in JOK as we need that mismatch equalizer and you get great coverage from him as well. The Eagles did a good job not forcing a position need this year but will have to address corner in 2022 – but with 4 picks in the first 2 rounds and an expected really strong corner class, they will have their opportunities while staying true to their board.
We haven’t seen anything from Landon yet and there is a good chance he redshirts this year, but I like us taking the best center in the draft at 37 (and even if Landon moves to guard as we need a guard anyway). It really comes down to Landon being healthy. After the draft, I wrote on Landon and will include the clip here regarding his injury history:
What could go wrong? Easy, obviously his injury history. Between my deep dive on CBs and researching microdiscectomies for Caleb Farly and now Landon’s ACL, I feel like part data nerd, part orthopaedic. The best study I could find on recurrent ACL tears was this one which did show an elevated risk or re-tearing the same ACL, but it is only slightly higher than initial tears (12% re-tearing same ACL vs. 9% in the control group). Me, I will bet on the guy who went out in the national championship for the final ceremonial snaps a week after his ACL tear and famously showed off his cartwheels in Mac Jones’ interview.
Homeless, Covid, NFL Cornerback, The Tay Gowan You Need To Know
For every athlete that has ever dreamed of making it to the NFL, the following words are the ones that change their lives forever.
“With the 223rd pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, the Arizona Cardinals Select Tay Gowan Cornerback from the University of Central Florida”
But long before the celebration started, after that long May 1st Draft day afternoon, there was a very hard road that included being homeless, life altering decisions regarding Covid 19, and a perseverance that most of us will thankfully never be forced to understand.
Tay was born Jan 7th, 1998 in Covington, GA, the first of 4 children. His mother, Linda, told me she became pregnant with Tay in High School and that she dropped out to find work to support her new family. She explained the difficulties of being a single mother and stated that Tay, being the oldest, took on the responsibility of helping to raise his three siblings he “became (like) their dad and the man of the house”. With no family around to help, and Tays’ father not being there either, she described their struggles with being homeless “I lost everything at one time, my job, section 8 (housing) (and we started staying) sometimes (with) friends, at shelters, and (we) moved around a lot, here, there, everywhere, not staying long because I couldn’t pay the rent by myself”.
The hardships were plenty, and the likelihood of him ever being in one place long enough to attract the attention of scouts were slim. Tay elaborated regarding his motivation and childhood March 21, 2021 with Fireside Giants hosted by Anthony Rivardo and Alex Wilson
“My driving force has always been my mother. I come from a small family. I dealt with a lot of trials and tribulations. For example, we’ve been homeless since I was in sixth grade. But recently I had my daughter so I think my daughter kind of jumped my mom a little bit. But those two are my driving forces. I’ve been playing football since I was five years old. I didn’t really get the opportunity to play when I was in High School, just due to moving around and stuff.”
After High School, Tay began his collegiate career with the University of Miami (Ohio) in 2017 before transferring to Butler (El Dorado, Kan.) Community College where he played the 2018 season. Tay then transferred yet again in 2019 to the college where everyone started to pay him attention, University of Central Florida. In his three seasons between Miami, Butler CC, and UCF, Tay played in 24 games totaling 59 tackles, eight interceptions (one returned for a TD), 12 passes defensed, three tackles for loss and a fumble recovery.
He was positioning himself to be drafted in the first few rounds of the 2021 NFL Draft and General Managers were starting to take notice.
“Going through my 2019 season, I dominated, and I knew that the 2020 season would have put me either in the first or second round based off my 2019 season.”
Everything seemed to finally be breaking his way. That is until he returned to UCF with a group of starters.
Gowan began to feel sick and tested positive for COVID-19. Having to leave campus, he went home and it spread to the rest of his family, including his daughter, who was born premature. Then he made one of the hardest decisions of his young life, he opted out of the 2020 season. (Orlando Florida in the early months of the pandemic was a hot spot for infections and at the time nobody knew much about the virus. Could you acquire it again? etc).Tay discussed the ordeal after being drafted
(Then) “COVID hits,” he said. “I have a premature daughter born at two pounds, and I got COVID. I gave it to her, her mom, my mom. My mom was actually hospitalized for COVID; no one really knows that. I went through a rough time with COVID and at the time I feel like I needed to protect my family, so I made the decision to put football aside even though I’ve been playing since I was five years old. It was one of the hardest decisions of my life, but at the end of the day I’m a family man and will always put my family first no matter what.”
“It was one of the toughest things of my life. Sometimes I don’t know what I would do without football. It would be really tough, not playing. But I knew that I ultimately made the right decision because there’s a little girl here that didn’t ask to be here that is dependent on me, health-wise, resources-wise, education-wise. I just needed to be there for her.”
Tay kept in shape and worked out while away form the team and had a good showing at UCF’s pro day, which the Cardinals were in attendance for. He ran a 4.44-second 40-yard dash and posted a 35.5-inch vertical jump. He also put up 13 bench press reps and ran the three-cone drill in 6.86 seconds. He hoped he had shown enough.
But day one and two of the draft came and went, and as feared, opting out appeared to have cost him a higher round grade or a chance to be drafted at all. With each round and pick going by apprehension set in until finally with that aforementioned 223rd pick in round six of the NFL Draft, the Arizona Cardinals came calling.
Tay post draft “I think it hurt my draft stock, but I think it was also a part of my journey and a part of my story when I get to tell it to other kids and relate my message and relate my journey,” Gowan said. “It’ll make kids feel more comfortable taking the type of route I went. I feel like I’m in a great spot. I feel like God wanted me with the Cardinals.”
The Cardinals are feeling just as blessed to have him, as Cardinals cornerbacks coach Greg Williams affirmed on the Big Red Rage.
”Once you get to know him, it’s not just what he says, he actually lives that, He backs it up with his work ethic. It’s not just talk.”
The hard work and determination paid off and Tay has now agreed to a reported 4-year, $3.6 million deal with the Arizona Cardinals.
“I’m still having to process it,” Gowan said on the team’s website. “I’ve been that kid since I was 5 years old, wanting to go to the NFL. I just signed my first contract, not my last!”
“I’m so excited. I don’t think I’m ever going to leave the facility,” Gowan said. “I might stay there, to be honest with you. This is my life-long dream and I’m about to take full advantage of every opportunity and I wanna be one of the fan favorites to the Arizona Cardinals and in the community, I wanna be one of the guys people really look up to and can learn from and can get motivation from, advice. I wanna be all that for the Cardinals.”
Tay isn’t taking anything for granted nor will he ever forget where he came from and the journey he took to get there.
“So this moment means so much to me. I cry thinking about it. Like I could really do this for my family and set my family straight. And I could show the NFL that I am a ten-year guy, I’m a ten-year guy, straight up. I’m not going to come in here and bust, no doubt I’m going to stay and I’m going to work my ass off.”
Tay also regularly receives reminders of that route he went to get here via tweets and messages of encouragement like the one below
Tay has shared similar sentiments himself via his Twitter @focused_4
He also has a daily reminder keepsake of what he has accomplished so far, his rookie signing pen and case.
“I take this everywhere with me,” Gowan mentioned. “It’s a big accomplishment in my life. I’m super excited. I’m going to cherish this moment for the rest of my life. I’m going to give it all I got.”
With the draft now behind him, he is far more concerned on the future than the past, a sentiment shared with his Cardinals General Manager, Steve Keim
“When you look at the big picture, you realize that he hasn’t played a ton of football, yet still looks that good on tape, still looked that good in his workout, you’d like to think he’s another guy with a high ceiling and another guy who can come in here, learn under some really good veterans. The sky is the limit, in my opinion, for him.”
The sky is the limit, indeed.
David
August 24, 2021
Follow me at @PhlEagleNews
Projecting Win Totals Using Team Approximate Value (AV) Metrics
This will be a more analytics focused post, although it is the basis for a prior post on why I think the Eagles will exceed their 2021 line of 6.5 wins (https://phillycovercorner.com/2021/07/why-the-2021-eagles-will-beat-their-6-5-win-projection/). I have gone through each team ahead of the 2021 season and created win projections using an AV-based model.
Background on Approximate Value (AV)
Approximate Value (AV) is a ProFootballReference metric that assigns a value to every player. The method is more complicated but the basis for AV is the ability to score AV is a measure of a player’s value and is at its core based on the ability to score more than expected (for offenses) or prevent scoring more than expected (for defenses).
AV, like other similar metrics, has its flaws, specifically for more difficult positions to assign contribution to like offensive and defensive line, while skill positions are much easier. At an individual player level, AV will have variance issues but in aggregate, a metric like AV becomes very useful. Below shows the relationship between a team’s aggregate AV and its win percentage:
The R2 of team AV and win percentage is 0.795, meaning almost 80% of a team’s win percentage is explained by the aggregate value of the players.
A more commonly used metric is Expected Points Added (EPA) which is available in the NFLFastR data set. EPA is similar – for every play in every game, that play is evaluated on how many expected points were added to a team. A run that picks up no gain will have an EPA loss while a plays with larger gains will have positive EPAs. The concept is similar to AV (value of scoring vs. preventing scores). But there are big differences and uses for each – EPA is available for every play, meaning for each player and play type and game situation, you get a value for the play vs. expected – AV does not do this as it is an aggregate number per player per season. But EPA applies primarily to skill positions and defense to a degree, there isn’t an EPA for an offensive lineman for example. This is one of the advantages of AV over EPA. Both are awesome, but I use them for different things.
But for these purposes, AV and EPA are remarkably consistent. Here is the same chart as above, but comparing EPA to win percentage, which has the same exact R2 of 0.795:
And if you compare a team’s AV to its EPA, you see that in aggregate, the two are effectively the same with an R2 of 0.943.
The Pythagorean expected wins model
One commonly used win prediction models in the NFL is the Pythagorean expected wins model which compares points scored by a team to their points scored plus points allowed:
But the ability for the Pythagorean model to predict next season wins is poor as there is very little correlation below between expected next season wins and actual wins.
One of the big issues with it is it does not reflect personnel changes. Tampa Bay had a 2020 expected wins total of 8.2 but that was based on a 2019 season with Jameis Winston, not Tom Brady.
This model, though, is useful retrospectively to show which teams outperformed or underperformed what they should have and may have benefited from luck (excess turnovers, high percentage of one-score game wins).
Modeling the 2021 season
First, no prediction model is ever going to be highly accurate for such a complicated sport like football. Injuries, coaching, and “luck” always swing several teams fortunes each year and certain positions have an outsized impact on the team’s overall success. Losing a starting QB (unless you are the 2017 Eagles which is an even freakier year than it seems when you really inspect it…) is almost always devastating to a team. Really poor OL play has spillover effect that impacts the overall offense (pressure decreases offensive DVOA by over 100 points).
But, talent is talent and players, in aggregate, have a somewhat consistent career arc of improvement, plateau, and then degraded performance as they age. And while predicting individual players is almost impossible as there is so much variability at an individual level, aggregating a team makes it easier (central limit theorem and all…).
The AV-based model has the following main tenants:
Predicting and summing AV for each of a team’s 22 starters (further explanation below as this is the key part of the model)
Non-starters (bench) are not individually modeled but aggregated as an additional 27% of total starter AV (looking backwards, bench AV is relatively consistent across teams)
Applying a strength of schedule modifier to total AV, ranging from the weakest SoS being worth +10 team AV and the hardest SoS being worth -10 AV.
Starter AV Modeling: For non-rookie starters, AV starts with the player’s prior year 16 game AV pace (adjusts for players that played only a partial season and extrapolates out their full-year performance).
AV then has three modifiers:
Age
Early career growth
And a subjective “other”
As mentioned above, players in aggregate have a somewhat predictable career value arc where they have consistent year-over-year AV improvements in their first few seasons, then are relatively flat year-over-year until they near 30 where they begin to show AV decreases.
To model this, I give players in their first 3 seasons a +25% AV adjustment and a -16% AV adjustment starting at age 29 and a -32% AV adjustment at 31.
On the last bullet above, I have not tried a pure formulaic model and believe some subjectivity needs to exist in the model. One current year example is Matthew Stafford as he moves from an awful team with no weapons to a team likely competing for the Super Bowl. In 2020, Stafford created 11 AV which is only a bit higher than Jared Goff’s. But the expectation is that Stafford will provide materially greater value moving to the Rams (going from the 31st best WR group to the 8th). Another example of a manual adjustment is Tom Brady – until he actually shows he isn’t impervious to aging, an age-related negative adjustment makes no sense and needs to be corrected. And QBs in general show less age-related decline than other positions (RB is very pronounced on the other end). So there is subjectivity in the model but for a game like the NFL, there needs to be.
The modeled starter AV uses a 16 game pace but we know many starters will not play all 16 games due to injuries and other reasons. They are modeled to have a full season, though, which will capture their replacement’s contribution.
Rookie Starters: For rookie starters, predicted AV simply uses the average rookie season AV for past rookies of the same position and same draft round.
Bench: A team’s overall performance is more than just their starters, but the starters are the more variable and impactful driver of team value. Total bench value does vary but is more consistent across teams – 75% of team seasons between 2015-2020 were all within a 5% range of bench to starter AV. To represent bench value, an additional 27% of total starter AV is added. There may be some small incremental value in estimating special teams or bench value more specifically but there is diminishing value here.
Strength of Schedule: SoS has shown to have an impact on win totals, with the easiest schedule equaling +10AV and the hardest schedule -10AV, with a progressive range in between. Getting a SoS list gets complicated as many of the preseason lists are based off of the prior season opponent records or DVOA or other metric and do not reflect changing personnel.
For this, once all teams are modeled, I generate a ranking of team strength, from highest total AV to lowest and then use this to generate SoS for each team based on who they play. For 2021, my strength of schedule is the following (going from easiest schedule at the top to hardest at the bottom):
Calculating Win Totals: Based on the regression shown above (the very first chart in the article), I use the following to calculate a projected win total from total team AV:
Which is then multiplied by 17 this year to get a win total.
An Eagles back-test from 2020
I back-tested this on several teams and seasons, but wanted to share one on the 202 Eagles (since this is primarily and Eagles blog page). Below lists their projected 2020 starters at the season start – Desean is listed in although he ended up barely playing and the OL reflects JP at LT and Pryor at RG with Dillard and Brooks out before the season. I made no manual adjustments and the projected win total comes out at 4.1 wins which is right where the Eagles were.
A couple of things to note:
Carson was one of the big swing points last year as he was historically bad and took the entire offense down. I projected him at his same 12 AV as the prior year but he only generated 5.3 AV in 2020. His replacement, Hurts, generated another 4 AV in the 4.5 games he played, giving the QB position 9.3 AV in total.
The other big story last year was the OL injuries which I have written about before being such a statistical outlier. This model didn’t fully reflect the impact but because much of the line is older, the age penalty did bring the Eagles OL value down.
There was good excitement on Nickell-Robey Coleman as a big nickel corner upgrade, but he had been between 1 and 3 AV per 16 games the past five seasons. His struggles reflected his historical value.
Reagor was the rookie starter and 1st round WRs have historically generated 5.5AV over 16 games. Reagor, even with what most see as a disappointing rookie season, was right on forecast with 4AV over 11 games or 5.8AV over 16 games.
There were several other players with errors but much of it evened out. For every Avonte Maddox (projected due to growth to be 6AV but was awful outside and generated 3.2 AV) and Miles Sanders (projected at 10AV but had a down year at 8AV), there is Alex Singleton (projected to only generate 1.8AV and ending up having a great year with 8AV) and Brandon Graham (doubling his projected AV with probably the best Eagles performance last year). And this is the point of aggregating team AV – I don’t think individual player predictions will ever be accurate, but aggregating evens out individual errors.
And lastly, the overall Eagles projection took over a half-game hit due to a more difficult SoS.
This post was meant to explain the model and I will create another post with actual team predictions in order to keep the articles not novels.
What I’m Watching for in the Patriots / Eagles Preseason Game
Revisiting last week
Before last week’s first preseason game against the Steelers, I listed 5 things I was watching for:
How is Hurts’ timing and decision-making?
Are Reagor, Fulgham, and Quez separating?
How do we defend Chase Claypool?
How does the OL look?
How does Tyree look in a real game?
I picked these because most of them are tied to the biggest unknowns that will drive the Eagles success this year. After the game and joint practices this week, I am more optimistic on the Eagles. A few thoughts on the above:
I’ve said Hurts’ accuracy isn’t an issue, it is his timing (being late on throws) and poor decisions that lead to his way-too-high turnover rate. Hurts showed better rhythm in the passing game on several passes (the Goedert pass, the couple Ertz passes) and you can see this as his throws are generating yards after the catch. The only dropback that was a test of his decision making was the one throwaway – I do wonder if he would have tried to force something on that last year.
Quez and Reagor both separated well. It is finally starting to be recognized that this WR crew is going to be good. As I keep saying, they have the traits (separation, ability to create) that matter and showed it in this week. Fulgham has not popped this year yet but has had better practices.
The Steelers didn’t play Ben and Claypool only had 10 snaps, but he wasn’t targeted at all and his one run was covered extremely well by the Eagles defense which definitely has more “swarm” to it this year. Claypool is exactly the matchup problem the Eagles have been bad at covering for years so this was good to see, albeit limited snaps.
The OL looked good, generally giving Hurts good protection, and the Steelers defense is very, very good (the front seven). We still need to see more from them but this OL will be much better than last year.
Tyree looked really good but unfortunately his injury is going to most likely redshirt him this year. I still believe he has the potential to be a matchup problem for Eagles opponents in the future.
I actually think the Steelers are poised to way underperform this year as their OL is awul, Ben is not what he used to be, they lost more than they added in the offseason, and they invested in a RB and TE with their top two picks which is insanity. I’m not sure they have one tackle let alone two. But the Eagles starters looked good.
The one area that is an underrated concern for the Eagles is run defense. The Steelers had runs of 4, 6, 4, and 8 yards against the Eagles starting defense. And as I said, the Steelers OL is really bad… they were 28th and 24th in the league last year in pass block win rate and run block win rate respectively and are projected to be worse in 2021. This isn’t a team that should have run on the Eagles.
We are used to the Eagles year after year being great against the run but they aren’t anymore – last year they were 19th in the league and you can’t really point to any improvements this year… Eric Wilson is new but is a coverage linebacker, Sweat will get more playing time but is a pass rusher. The Eagles best rated run defender is Alex Singleton which isn’t a great thing.
This week against the Patriots
The Eagles “won” both sides of the ball in joint practice this week against the Patriots (quotes used as it is practice, not a game) and the Patriots will be a different test for the Eagles Thursday night. The Patriots have QB issues which led to one of my favorite stories of joint practice from K’Von Wallace:
K’Von Wallace spent today heckling Cam Newton. Wallace was relentless, saying “Not only are you only throwing checkdowns, That’s all you ever do, over & over. You’re the king of it.”
Cam got so annoyed he asked to step back in for 3 more reps. He didn’t throw Wallace’s way once. pic.twitter.com/i0crxPmyrA
But the Patriots will be a different test than the Steelers – they have a deep set of running backs and will likely be a top 5 rushing team in the league. Which brings me to what I am watching for this week. Most of last week continues to carry over:
1. Hurts continuing to make quick decisions and limit mistakes Same as last week as there isn’t a more important thing to the Eagles this year than that.
2. The Eagles run defense of Damien Harris and Sony Michel Last year Damien Harris had an 11.7% explosive run rate (85th percentile) and their second back, Sony Michel, had an 11.4% explosive run rate. As comparison, Miles Sanders had a 6% explosive rush rate. New England has a top 5 OL. Washington is a much better run defense than the Eagles and Harris had runs of 2, 8, 4, 11, and 3 to start the game against Washington. We should see more of what our run defense is this week. I would much prefer the Eagles to be good against the pass than the run, but run defense is something to watch as it is worse than most realize.
3. Reagor’s aggressiveness to the ball I’ve been a Reagor fan because of his separation stats and his recent highlight catches have been awesome to see. He is running better, crisper routes which shows the coaching staff is as advertised. But the biggest difference I see in Reagor is how much more confident he is going up to get the ball. In a recent post, I re-watched all of his targets last year and he was better last year than most people realize, but one thing he didn’t do was go up and get the ball like he has this preseason (as an example, the pass in the endzone last year vs. Seattle is night and day from what we are seeing this year). He had a good game against the Steelers but need to see him keep building as he is capable of even more.
4. Fulgham showing up The Eagles will be happy to have DeVonta, what Quez is showing, and what Reagor is, but it would be nice to see Fulgham start putting things together. They need a bigger receiver and Fulgham just hasn’t done enough this summer yet – maybe the four game stretch he had last year was the outlier. It pains me that JJAW will most likely make the team as he cannot separate and cannot create with the ball – for the last WR spot, I’d rather take the upside of Hightower but he hasn’t helped himself by being out. But the Eagles will want a bigger WR and Fulgham should be this receiver. He needs to show it.
5. How the interior D-line not named Cox or Hargrave performs We know the starting front four (five) of Cox, Hargrave, Graham, Sweat, and Barnett (maybe) is very good and they have good depth at end with Kerrigan, Milton Williams, and rookie Tarron Jackson. It’s too early to talk about the draft, but most people list DE as a top need, and it may be depending on who the Eagles keep. But I am more worried on DT as after Cox and Hargrave, it is thin. The Eagles will undoubtedly need to rotate or give significant snaps to others. Milton Williams will definitely make the team and he has inside-outside versatility, but has been used primarily at DE this summer. I would like to see more what he can do inside. Then it is likely TY McGill or Hassan Ridgeway for the final DT spot. (As an aside, Marlon Tuipulotu is my “I was so, so wrong on that pick” guy and I am disappointed he is so out of his league this summer… it would have been nice if he actually developed as at least a run stuffer but he won’t make the roster).
Prediction tonight: Eagles 41, New England 33.
How Are Our Other Round 1 Targets Doing?
DeVonta Smith is one of the most universally loved 1st round picks by the Eagles as it fills a big need and there is nothing he doesn’t do well – he had twice as many YAC in college as the next closest receiver, he almost never dropped a ball, and is elite at separating. DeVonta excelled early in camp before a knee injury. But there were other draft hopefuls and below is a check-in on how they are doing (subjectively ordered from best to worst preseason):
1. Patrick Surtain II
Summary: The best start of any of our targets and is going to be great (but DEN should have taken Fields) Once the Eagles traded down, Surtain was not a realistic draft target as we knew Dallas was very high on him. So far, Surtain is consistently surprising everybody with how ready he is for the NFL and the only player where it’s really hard to find a bad clip or report out of camp. Surtain made his debut known on Saturday with a 94.8 rating, 11 coverage snaps allowing no catches, 1 PBU, and the pick-six that everybody has seen by now. His coverage has been outstanding throughout camp.
The common things you hear are how impressive his versatility, intelligence, and readiness is as he fully understands the position and has played each of the cornerback positions in camp. He is still listed behind Darby and Fuller on the depth chart but he is going to play. Below is his interception of Drew Lock in zone, saying he “just read the quarterback’s eyes and I was just looking for it, he sort of led me to the pick.”
Summary: Yikes, I’m worried about week 1… Zero yards in an unimpressive preseason debut where Pitts couldn’t even make it on the field… Kidding. Not sure why the Falcons didn’t play him and I would have loved to have seen him in an actual game. The Eagles weren’t ever in range to get Pitts but including him because of the pre-draft hope. Of the pass catchers, Pitts (along with Rondale Moore) is probably showing up the most this pre-season. There really weren’t any questions on Pitts coming out of the draft but if there were any, maybe it would be adjusting to NFL corners where he can’t win on just his size and speed. Well, he is doing just that. There are several good clips of his, but two here. First, a ball where both players had their hands on the ball, it pops up off the corner’s knee, and Pitts comes down with it.
Just throw the ball to Kyle Pitts and let him get it. It's that simple.
Small sample sizes, but I’m encouraged that Chase Claypool was held to nothing in the Eagles first preseason game as he represents the type of mismatch the Eagles haven’t been able to cover. Ryan throwing to Pitts will be a great test of Gannon’s defense…
3. Jaycee Horn
Summary: He looks to be the real deal Horn has one of the Panthers starting corner spots locked up entering the season but the Panthers don’t have the secondary that the Broncos do. There are some clips of him getting beat and Matt Rhule said he is holding and grabbing too much (which is one of the pre-draft concerns on Horn), but the Panthers are happy with his progress covering Robby Anderson, DJ Moore, and Terrace Marshall in camp. He has shown his ball skills with 3 camp interceptions (but it is Darnold throwing and the INTs were an underthrown ball and two overthrown balls). He also had 1 tip that turned into a Jermaine Carter interception.
Jaycee Horn’s two picks.
Nice work by Horn on both. The throw from Darnold to Thomas on the quick out is high, BTW. The 2nd throw (Walker) sails, too.
Summary: It really looks like it was a stacked WR class… Most people didn’t believe when Miami said Waddle was their WR target all along (ahead of Chase) but Miami needed a separator – Devante Parker was second to last in the league in separation last year. And this is what Miami is getting with Waddle. Saturday Waddle had a nice return in his first of what will be many punt returns for the Dolphins. In the Dolphins first depth chart, he is listed behind Albert Wilson which is silliness. He will start.
Summary: Hasn’t gotten off to the “generational talent” start (I’m one of many that thinks CIN should have taken Sewell) Chase was never in play for the Eagles, but including him here anyway because there was so much hope for him. If you have seen anything on Chase so far, good chance it is people on Twitter posting clips proving he can separate in response to reports that he hasn’t been separating in camp. There weren’t many that were outspoken pre-draft on concerns with Chase, but credit to Eric Crocker who was one that pointed this issue out (link here). Additionally, Chase has dropped a bunch of balls and most surprisingly, not been winning the 50-50 balls which is what he was supposed to be great at. It’s early and Chase hasn’t played in a long while after sitting out, but he has not slid right into the Bengals offense. I think he will be good but for the Chase clip, here is what I am talking about with all the “yeah see, he can separate” tweets out now (and this is vs. ex-Cowboy Chidobe Awuzie, owner of a 52.0 coverage grade last year and allowed a 149 passer rating vs. Hurts in week 16 so calm down Bengals fans…)
Summary: Struggling, and not just physically Caleb was an early draft favorite (including mine) but became untouchable after his back surgery. He was cleared to practice recently but has had a rough go in Titans camp as he hasn’t played real football in almost two years. First, he has shown some bad body language and was pulled from the practice field after not trying on a play – Coach Mike Vrabel said “He made a mistake or didn’t do something great, and kind of stood there and laid on the ground, and I said, ‘That is not how we are going to do it.’” And then Caleb was pulled from the first preseason game as Vrabel said he is just not ready.
