Just a quick post ahead of the Eagles-Cowboys Monday Night game. I had the Eagles modeled as a slightly better team than the Cowboys this year and I still believe the Eagles roster is more balanced. But they are pretty evenly matched (more on that below) and Dak is playing at a higher level than I expected after his ankle and shoulder injuries. I had this game down as a loss which seems to have me with the consensus after I was on the other side of consensus the past two weeks, thinking the Eagles would win both. If I had to say what will be the determining factor and how the Eagles could win, I think it comes down to my first stat on explosive plays.
18 Explosive Plays
The Cowboys defense has given up 18 explosive plays, ranking them 27th in the league with 2 explosive runs and 16 passes in their first two games. And these weren’t all Tom Brady in their week 1 shootout when they allowed 10 explosive passes… the Chargers had 6 in week two.
The Eagles are 3rd best in the league, allowing only 8 explosive plays (4 runs and 4 passes) over two weeks. Of course the Eagles were helped by playing a bad Falcons team and Jimmy Garoppolo who isn’t usually a downfield threat, but there was still offensive talent (Calvin Ridley, Kyle Pitts, Deebo Samuel).
The Eagles will need to continue to limit explosive plays this week as CeeDee Lamb is 4th in the league with 5 explosive receptions.
8.2 Yards per Reception
The Eagles passing defense is 1st in the league in average air yards per pass attempted at 4.6 yards and 1st again in yards gained per completed pass at 8.2. Again, this is partly a factor of Matt Ryan having zero time to throw in week 1 and playing Jimmy G in week 2.
But this also shows how Gannon’s defense is being played, which we saw in week 2 – they are playing off, forcing shorter throws, and attempting to limit gains. And right now it is giving the Eagles the 7th best passing defense in the league based on passing EPA allowed. Gannon spoke about this this week:
We’ve talked about it since we’ve gotten here, is explosive plays is a winning stat, winning or losing stat, as takeaways are… what you’re seeing is guys being in the correct spot and playing the coverages the correct way. And, it really comes down to execution in the call and we’re executing those calls not to allow explosive passes.”
6-0 Turnovers Generated
Widely talked about this week is both the Cowboys leading the league in takeaways with 6 (4 interceptions and 2 fumble recoveries) as well as the Eagles not having a single turnover yet in 2021. Most people in the analytics community will view turnovers as a very unstable metric, ripe for regression. I partly agree as it depends on the reason for the turnover. A lot of interceptions and fumbles are flukes, but turnover ratio year-over-year isn’t as unstable or random as most believe. And this is because sometimes a QB just throws more interceptions.
Turnovers will regress to some degree for both teams at some point… the Eagles had 3 chances last week and just didn’t execute and the Cowboys will not keep a pace of 3 turnovers per week. The Eagles are putting themselves in position for turnovers with pressure from the DL and plays on the ball in the secondary, the turnovers will come.
But one source I believe in is Trevon Diggs (a rare Cowboy that I love and wish was an Eagle). He has 2 interceptions already this year and all 3 of his interceptions last year came against the Eagles, including 1 vs. Hurts in the last game. His interceptions aren’t cheap ones either – his last against Justin Herbert is one of the better plays on a ball you will see. Often made fun of by Eagles fans, Diggs has improved greatly in year two, allowing a 43.2 passer rating against Brady and Herbert.
48% PRWR, 38% PBWR
The Eagles and Cowboys are similar in a lot of areas as shown below with PFF’s ratings across offense and defense. And it’s the same story if you look at EPA – the Cowboys and Eagles are 5th and 6th respectively on rush offense, 14th and 12th in pass offense, 11th and 16th in run defense.
The two areas to point out are the Cowboys pass rush and pass blocking. The Cowboys are 14th in the league with a 48% Pass Rush Win Rate (PRWR), defined as beating a block within 2.5 seconds on a pass rush. But this is before all of their injuries that have decimated their DL as they enter this game – DeMarcus Lawrence (top-rated DL), Dorance Armstrong (3rd-rated DL), and Carlos Watkins (he’s not very good). Add in LB Keanu Neal who is out with Covid and these losses account for 19 of the Cowboys 39 pressures generated this year. This comes at a good time for the Eagles as we are also down two linemen with Brooks and Mailata both out. Hopefully this can be a mismatch for the Eagles but with our injuries and uncertainty on how Dillard will play, it at least avoids a potential mess.
On the offensive side, the Dallas OL is generally viewed as a strength but they are last in the league with a 38% Pass Block Win Rate (PBWR), defined as holding blocks on dropbacks for at least 2.5 seconds. And like the Eagles, they are shorthanded this week with RT La’el Collins (third best rated OL) suspended.
Which brings me to my last stat…
1-0
The Cowboys do lead the Eagles, and lead the league, in the number (1) of (alleged) bribes attempted to NFL drug testers with La’el Collins being suspended this week. Cowboys gotta Cowboy…
Fly Eagles Fly!