A quick look at the large number of older prospects in the 2022 draft class, what history shows on if they fall and their value, and what it may mean for several of the high profile 24 year olds this year. Read more
The 2022 punter draft class could be one of the best in the past 20 years. Here I take a deep dive into the four top punters, with Penn State's Jordan Stout as not only punter 1 in the class but potentially one of the best punters in a long time. Read more
Looking back at the best individual performance of an Eagles draft pick with several great options - McNabb's broken ankle game, Dawkins "Quadrafecta", Brian Westbrook vs. Tampa 2006, Eric Allen's 1993 season. But the top performance is Nick Foles' 2017 3-game playoff run. Read more
A look back at which positions the Eagles prioritize in the draft, both by draft capital and number of picks. And the performance vs. expected value of positions by round. Read more
Leading up to the 2022 NFL draft, a look back at the Eagles 10 best draft values since 2000. A couple of Cincy Bearcats, a rugby player, two running backs, and a goblin. Read more
David and Greg make 1st round selections that were randomly assigned. Lot of Edges, corners, and receivers, a couple of falling players, couple of surprising 1st rounders, and three QBs. Read more
What if they Eagles walk away from the draft with a round 1 tackle, the top running back, and a day 2 tight end? It's almost impossible to find any of these mocked to the Eagles at top picks but there are realistic scenarios where this is how the board falls. And while different from consensus, these would make the Eagles much, much better. Read more
So can Jalen turn things around in his third season to even be a 3rd or 4th WR option in the Eagles 2022 offense? We would first need to know what went wrong with Reagor last year and how to fix it. Read more
A quick look at some of the deeper data on the top remaining free agent WRs for the Eagles. Some I think we should cross off the list, but Keelan Cole, Jamison Crowder, and Jarvis Landry are three that would be nice upgrades. Read more
A look at the cost of different positions in free agency, how the value of positions have been changing, and what it means for how to approach both FA and the draft. Also a quick look at the Eagles moves. Read more
With the additional Covid redshirt years, this year’s draft is one of the largest drafts and has the highest number of older prospects – by my best count, there are 87 players in the draft that will be 24 or older during the 2022 season including some high-profile names:
Expected Draft Position
Offense
Defense
Day 1
QB Kenny Pickett
EDGE Jermaine Johnson IDL Devonte Wyatt LB Devin Lloyd
Day 2
OT Bernhard Raimann OT Abraham Lucas IOL Luke Goedeke IOL Cole Strange IOL Sean Rhyan TE Jelani Woods
OT Kellen Diesch OT Ryan Van Demark OT Obinna Eze IOL Luke Fortner IOL Zach Thomas IOL Justin Shaffer IOL Alec Lindstrom IOL Lecitus Smith WR Velus Jones WR Dontario Drummond TE Gerrit Prince RB Ty Chandler
EDGE Dominique Robinson 5T Michael Clemons IDL Eric Johnson IDL Eyioma Uwazurike IDL Haskell Garrett CB Bryce Watts CB Damarion Williams CB Chase Lucas LB Jojo Domann LB Christopher Allen LB Aaron Hansford LB D’Marco Johnson LB Kyron Johnson
The Browns are probably most recognized for having an age requirement, supposedly avoiding any prospect age 23 or older. Since Andrew Berry became GM in 2020 the Browns have the lowest average age of draft picks at 21.5 years old and are the only team in the league that hasn’t drafted somebody 23 or older.
The draft is getting younger
While the Browns may be stricter than most, the average age of prospects has been dropping for several years, especially in earlier rounds. This is for two reasons. First, more players are declaring early ever since the rookie wage scale was introduced. Players know their opportunity to make money is on the second contract and the sooner – and younger – they can get to that contract, the better off they are.
And second, more and more teams are looking at breakout age and valuing players that show college performance at a younger age. And conversely, questioning players that only breakout in college when they are older, competing against mostly younger players.
But that doesn’t mean older players fall in the draft
But while the average age of players is decreasing, it doesn’t mean older players fall in the draft. Below shows every 24+ year old over the past 5 years and what the difference was between their actual pick location vs. their pre-draft expected draft position (EDP). Above the center line means the player was taken earlier than their pre-draft EDP, below the line they were taken lower than their pre-draft EDP.
The older players are all over but if there is a trend, it is top players – day 1 and 2 – are taken earlier than their pre-draft positioning. And later in the draft, the older players are taken later than pre-draft expectations.
And older players don’t differ in value vs. expected
When you look at player value, the 24+ year olds do not perform worse than the average draft pick. Below shows the same group of 24+ year olds by pick location with their actual value (by AV) vs. expected value for that pick location. Above the center line are players that outperformed their draft slot and below the line are players that underperformed. There is no clear trend which follows the average players drafted.
But maybe stay away from older players at skill positions
Below are the 24+ year old draftees by position and round with their actual value (AV) vs. expected value at their draft position. While these are all smaller sample sizes, the skill positions (WR, TE, RB, CB) all are near the bottom in value vs. expected. The offensive line, and linebacker to a lesser degree, don’t seem to care about age.
What could this mean for this year’s players?
Don’t expect players to fall only because of their age, especially the highly-graded players.
When Devin Lloyd’s age finally came out, many were questioning if he falls. He won’t, at least not because of his age. And there is no concern of him being a late breakout prospect as he has had good years for 2-3 years. Same with other day 1 and day 2 prospects like Arnold Ebiketie, Boye Mafe, and Myjai Sanders.
But there is reason to worry about late breakouts.
I love Jermaine Johnson but his best year was his last year. Maybe he just needed the opportunity to start, but it is a question. Same with Kenny Pickett – he was not a good QB until his 5th year. Jelani Woods has an amazing athletic profile but again only popped at 23. I know Bernhard Raimann is new to football so his senior year breakout may be because he is still learning the game, but he will be 25 to start his NFL career. And others like WR Dontario Drummond, TE Gerritt Prince, WR Velus Jones, and 5T Michael Clemons only stood out in their last seasons and history would say this late breakout is a concern, especially at their positions.
Who could be really interesting?
Besides those mentioned above – Devin Lloyd, Boye Mafe, Ebiketie, and Myjai – I would not worry about age on players like IOL Sean Rhyan, IOL Luke Goedeke, OT Abraham Lucas, IOL Luke Fortner. First, as shown above, there is not a value dropoff on older offensive line prospects and second, each has been good for several years.
The Final Absolute Superlative All Eagles 2022 NFL Mock Draft
Round 1 (pick 10): Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia
Pick 15 and 83 to Jets for pick 10
The why behind the what: The Eagles value the lines more than any other team in the NFL. They specifically love interior pressure. Drafting DT is not only their core belief, but in 2022, it is aligned with a need as well. Cox is most likely done with the Eagles after this year. Javon Hargrave is 29,and barring an extension, is in the last year of his contract. For a team that values DT as much as Philly does, this is a no brainer. Run, don’t walk, that card up to Commissioner Goodell.
Davis stands 6’6 340 lbs. He has an enormous big boned, broad shouldered framed man that fills any gap you want to put him in. As a four year starter for the Bull Dogs, he was primarily used as a nose tackle in their 3–4 scheme. He flourished his Senior year being utilized in a rotation where he was on the field a little less than previous seasons. (something the Eagles do as well)
Jordan is a max effort guy who chases down runners with his unbelievable speed for a man his size. He posted a stunning 4.78 40 time at the combine.
His teammates love his good natured personality, and his smile is infectious. Going back to Jerome Brown, and more recently Fletcher Cox, the Eagles have done well bringing in gregarious, fun loving, high motor DT’s that keep a locker room joyous and motivated. Davis could potentially fill that role.
When I release my Top 100 and Jordan Davis is really high, realize that 350-pound people shouldn't be able to do this. 2nd Sack. pic.twitter.com/Ys5cxhl9jb
Last year the Eagles went back to back players from the National Champion Alabama team, this year they do the same. Only this time with Georgia. Cine, pronounced SEEN.
Lewis is dominating and violent versus the run. He has improved year after year and will likely continue do so as he is well known for being a student of the game. Cine’s talent that is on the rise, and he will only get stronger as he matures. Lewis is a perfect fit for the Eagles backfield. He also checks off the durability box, as he has played in all 39 games over the past 3 seasons. With McLeod off to Indy, he fills an immediate need.
*If Cine was gone at this point, I would expect David Ojabo to be the selection. Maybe even in another small trade to move down a few spots.
Want a safety that has box instincts, communicates and limits YAC … Lewis Cine. pic.twitter.com/8D6K7UADGq
Make it a hat trick! When I did this mock, it didn’t even occur to me that I had just selected three Georgia Bulldogs back, to back, to back. Once I realized it, I thought I should change one of these picks. Instead, I stayed true to my evaluations and what I would do if I were the Eagles GM for a draft. So while it is admittedly odd and unique to draft 3 players from the same school in succession, I am steadfast in my approach.
Pickens would probably be long gone, somewhere in the first round, if not for an injury in 2021. At 6’3, his tall, long frame gives him an advantage in winning contested catches. During his two years as a starter for Georgia, he demonstrated above average route running, the concentration to catch balls away from his body, and the skill set to be a future number one WR in the NFL. Throughout his career Pickens has shown the ability to be the go to receiver when it is time to move the chains. 71.1 percent of his catches resulted in a first down. If I am Howie Roseman, I submit this card confidently, and begin a friendly rivalry in the locker room between the Alabama and Georgia alumni.
I desperately tried to find another Bulldog to draft, but alas it was not meant to be.
Strange could groom for a year under Kelce, if the Eagles view him as a Center, while he spends the 2022 season as an all purpose back up along the O Line. Cole brings aggression, and the work ethic the Eagles demand from the position. He has a lean, muscular frame that gives him a speed advantage in the trenches, which requires Cole to rely on technique more than bulk. The size is something he can add to if a team sees fit. He is one of my favorite players in this draft class.
*If Strange is already selected at this point, I would go the same position, and take Nebraska center Cam Jurgens. I have seen a lot of Jason Kelce’s style of play in his game. I struggled choosing between the two. I would feel confident selecting whichever is available, as they’re both great talents.
If anyone was wondering if Cole Strange was going to have any problems with the level of competition, he is NOT. This is dominance. Again, love his hands. pic.twitter.com/AsYWmE8FhW
Round 3 (pick 101): Brian Robinson Jr., RB, Alabama
Brian is one of the best in his class at picking up yards after contact. He is also a punishing finisher. He uses his strong legs and 6’1 225 lb frame to gain those tough, short yards when needed on 3rd and 4th down. Brian would be a great rotational back, and possibly Miles Sanders future replacement. Alabama HC, Nick Saban, stated Brian is an outstanding special teams player. That is something the Eagles need to start paying more attention to.
Me rambling for 2 minutes about a Brian Robinson Jr. run. Is it worth your time? Maybe. I feel forced to improve his grade. pic.twitter.com/2ZWw0mTlEp
The Eagles drafted Gunter’s mentor last year, fellow Coastal Carolina Chanticleer, Tarron Jackson. This year they bring in the student.
Gunter has the traits Eagles GM Howie Roseman seemingly looks for in an Edge rusher. Jeffrey has the bend, long arms, closing speed and a nose for creating a turnover, ( 8 forced fumbles the past seasons) something that Eagles defense needs badly, and that Howie covets.
Jeffrey has a lot of the tools that can be honed by NFL coaching. Gunter played in 48 of 49 games for , so durability should not be an issue. Adding Jeffrey in a rotation of pass rushers that include Haason Reddick, Brandon Graham, Josh Sweat, and Derek Barnett will give him time to be coached up, and learn on the job.
Gunter has been very open regarding his struggles with depression, and the Eagles are at the forefront of the NFL in assisting players (Lane Johnson and Brandon Brooks) with issues regarding mental health. Philadelphia would benefit from his pass rush, but it could be a safe landing spot for Gunter to flourish as well.
Kept saying people were sleeping on Jeffrey Gunter for this game. If you have any questions why, refer to this. He can flat out boogie. pic.twitter.com/OJD2zYx8dg
The Eagles want another pass catching TE to pair with Goedert, and with project Tyree Jackson out for a large part of the season, they will probably be drafting one.
Cole Turner has proven to be a pass catching wonder. He lined up outside or in the slot in Nevada’s offense. In Philadelphia, he would be used strictly as an offensive weapon, as he has a ways to go before he would be trusted to block.
Turner does have good hands, ball tracking ability, and wins most 50/50 balls. At 6’6, he’s another big body who gets the separation needed to be a reliable target for Hurts.
I don’t watch tape on punters, and like @GregHartPA opined “I can picture how miserable you would be just holding a stopwatch, looking up into the sun, counting “One Mississippi…” and he is right.
The importance of special teams and flipping the field with a great punter is an often overlooked stat. I will let him make the case for punter, and specifically why it should be “Punt God” Jordan Stout.
It would be an absolute steal if Jobe falls this far in the draft. I have my doubts that he will, but this would be a huge GIFT for Philadelphia.
Jobe played both man and zone corner for the Crimson Tide in 2021. He uses his hands to disrupt pass plays and is always attacking the ball. Josh has also proven to be a good run defender who reads plays well, and hits hard. His aggressive, down hill style play against the run, has lead to some violent collisions. Josh suffered a turf toe injury that required surgery in December, which is the only reason there is hope of selecting him here at pick 168.
I could have posted 10 clips for every prospect I selected. If you’d like more insight into these players, do yourself a favor and go follow Mat Alkire on twitter. In the search field type @mattalkire Jordan Davis (the players name) and you will find countless clips of most every college prospect.
If you enjoyed the Eagles taking a punter, Greg Hart is your guy. Join him and his cult of punter fans @greghartpa
He is the authority on the topic, has the best articles explaining the importance of drafting one. The stats he shares prove the difference they make in a game. I know, I was skeptical too. Just read one article, and you will be convinced as well. It is that compelling.
The Eagles get Jameson (1-15), Lewis Cine (1-29 in trade down with KC), Perrion Winfrey (2-51), Cam Taylor-Britt (2-62)
Desmond Ridder is the top QB and goes to SEA at 5 in a trade-up, Pickett at 32 to DET. No other QBs taken in first two rounds.
Top CBs go high with Sauce to HOU at 3 and Stingley to NYG at 7.
BAL takes a WR (Garrett Wilson), not DL, at 14
Players I have in R1 that usually are not in round 1 – Skyy Moore, Ebiketie, DeMarvin Leal
Players I don’t have in R1 – Tyler Linderbaum, Nakobe Dean, Malik Willis, Kenny Pickett, Devonte Wyatt
1: Jacksonville – OT Ikem Ekwonu Everything points towards Aidan Hutchinson and either OL or DL makes a ton of sense, but if I am Jacksonville, I am investing in Trevor and the passing game first. Ickie will be very good for a long time.
2: Detroit – EDGE Aidan Hutchinson Detroit needs a lot, they aren’t taking a QB here, maybe later but more likely use their two firsts next year and make do in 2022. Aidan is the best player available here.
3. Houston – CB Ahmad Gardner One of my most “different” picks but he is a perfect fit for what Lovie Smith wants to run – a much more traditional defense than most will run and a focus on turnovers. CBs are tough because of the bust rate and I think Sauce is the most sure one in the draft.
4. New York Jets – EDGEKayvon Thibodeaux Just take the best defensive linemen here.
Seattle trades 1-9, 2023 2nd to New York Giants for 1-5
5. Seattle (from New York Giants) – QB Desmond Ridder Maybe they won’t need to leap Carolina if the Panthers trade for Baker or if Seattle knows who Carolina likes at QB, but I don’t know that and for me, I am using my extra draft capital this year to leap up to have my pick at QB. Ridder is the only one I actually kind of like.
6. Carolina – OT Charles Cross Darnold is awful but with Seattle jumping up and Cross on the board, I am taking a tackle to make the line (and entire offense) better.
7. New York Giants – OT Evan Neal They are projected to have the 30th rated offensive line in 2023 and need to add here.
8. Atlanta – EDGE Travon Walker Flip a coin, they project to be the worst OL and DL in the league next year. I always will go tackle if two equal options but the OTs already went and Treavon is the clear best player for them. Mariota, if healthy, is an underrated signing. Invest in the team, figure out QB in the future. I hate planning on next year but the Falcons really may only win 2 or 3 games and be in a good spot next year.
9. New York Giants (from Seattle) – CB Derek Stingley One of my favorite fits – DC Don Martindale’s scheme is to generate pressure with blitzes and he will run more cover 0 and cover 1 man than anybody else. There is no better corner for this than Stingley.
10. New York Jets – WR Garrett Wilson Give Zach Wilson some help with another Wilson. It’s a weird year with what flavor of receiver you want, but for me, Wilson is the best overall bet. First in total points per game and route, second out wide, fourth in catchable ball rate, and third in broken and missed tackles per reception. He is the most well-rounded receiver in this group.
11: Washington – WR Drake London It’s a need and surprisingly a receiver hasn’t been taken yet. If you look at who Wentz targets over his career (Ertz, Pittman), London is the best fit to make the most of their QB situation.
12: Minnesota – DT Jordan Davis He fits Minnesota, they want a corner and I love McDuffie, but think they have to go Davis here.
New Orleans trades 1-16, 2-49 to Houston for 1-13, 3-68
13: New Orleans (from Houston) – OT Trevor Penning The Saints leap BAL and LAC to take Penning who could also take a tackle. As Houston I would have taken Davis but decide to trade back now.
14: Baltimore – S Kyle Hamilton I originally had Baltimore taking receiver and still would like that – so may keep mocking “guys that are Ravens or AFC North” like Jordan Davis. But they aren’t competing with the AFC North, they are competing against Buffalo and Kansas City and the Chargers and now Denver. Their receivers are projected to be 31st and even if you have Bateman with a bigger than expected improvement, they still don’t have enough weapons for Lamar and nowhere near good enough passing game to compete. But Hamilton has fallen and I feel like you just have to take him here.
15: Philadelphia – WR Jameson Williams (EDP 18) I wasn’t planning on going receiver in the 1st but it is a premium position that they have not been able to get in free agency. Jameson could be WR1 if not for the injury.
My prioritized board at 15:Jordan Davis, Jameson Williams, Garrett Wilson,Trent McDuffie, Jermaine Johnson
16: Houston (from New Orleans) – EDGE Jermaine Johnson They walk away with the player I probably would have taken at 13 anyway and move up 19 spots in the second.
Green Bay trades 1-22, 3-92 to LA for 1-17
17: Green Bay (from LA Chargers) – WR Treylon Burks This makes sense for both – Green Bay, one of the most aggressive trade-up teams recently, uses some of their extra draft capital to move up and get their receiver since a run on receivers is on. The Chargers don’t see the value here and move down a bit and pick up another day 2 pick.
Kansas City trades 1-29, 2-62 to Philly for 1-18
18: Kansas City (from Philadelphia) – WR Chris Olave KC has 6 picks in the top 103 and WRs are coming off of the board. They jump ahead of New Orleans that would absolutely be taking Olave. The Eagles could use a corner or DL here but the value is in a trade down.
My prioritized Eagles board at 19:Trent McDuffie, Jermaine Johnson,George Karlaftis, Trevor Penning
19: New Orleans – LB Devin Lloyd They got their tackle with the previous trade-up to 13 and now get the BPA. A receiver would have been nice but the value isn’t there and while I think it needs to be improved, it isn’t their biggest issue as most people think.
20: Pittsburgh – G/C Zion Johnson They made a mistake last year in the first two rounds and despite their reputation for a great OL, they haven’t really invested there in a while. I wouldn’t take a QB here especially with Colbert leaving and their OL is really bad. It was Kenyon, Zion, or Linderbaum here and going Zion who I like most.
21: New England – EDGE George Karlaftis They could go several directions here (corner, guard, receiver, linebacker), but I’m just taking best player on defense. They were 23rd in the league in PRWR and projected to be bottom 10 in the league at DT and EDGE value.
22: LA Chargers (from Green Bay) – OT Tyler Smith The Chargers spent a lot and did a really nice job in free agency. I would just focus on adding talent at premium positions. They could use a tackle, Smith may be a small reach here but the last tackle I would take in the 1st.
23: Arizona – CB Trent McDuffie Somehow they were 5th in the league in pass DVOA with a really bad cornerback group and I think they overachieved their talent. But they also lost their top two corners in the offseason. It is a gift that McDuffie is here.
24: Dallas – OG Kenyon Green Dallas has had a disaster free agency and needs to seriously rebuild their line. Kenyon gives them flexibility across the line. Lot of people will have Linderbaum here but I’m personally not as high on him – could regret the view but feel Creed was a better prospect and I would go other ways in the 1st.
25: Buffalo – CB Kaiir Elam They don’t have a ton of holes but could use a corner and think while there is a drop after Sauce, Stingley, and McDuffie, I have Kaiir next – good in man and better in zone (8th in yards per snap in man, 2nd in yards per snap in zone), really good against receivers like Jameson and Metchie.
26: Tennessee – QB Kenny Pickett They don’t have the draft capital others do and will be good enough to not be in a good spot to take a QB, so take a shot at a much lower cost draft option. I would have liked a receiver here but will go with Pickett.
27: Tampa Bay – DT DeMarvin Leal As long as Brady is there, they are in win now mode. This may be a bit of a reach but he has upside at a position of need.
28: Green Bay – WR Skyy Moore I love the idea of double-dipping in the draft – my favorite Eagles draft and statistically their best draft in the last 20 years was 2002 when they triple-dipped on secondary on their first three picks. Too many people move on to the next need and here the Packers get a second top player at a premium position, at value, and a need. I’m higher on Moore than most and think he can go in the 1st – his film is so good and advanced stats are really good on Skyy – 1st in total points per route, 5th in YRR, 2nd in target share.
29: Philadelphia (from KC) – S Lewis Cine (EDP 35) Would have liked to have taken Kaiir but he went above. While historically not a priority position for the league or the Eagles, safety was one of the most bid-up positions this free agency period. Nobody played as much deep safety but still had as much impact in the run game.
My prioritized board at 29:Kaiir Elam, Lewis Cine, Daxton Hill,Arnold Ebiketie, Tyler Smith, Skyy Moore, Jahan Dotson, Zion Johnson
30: Kansas City – EDGE Arnold Ebiketie The Chiefs real need is on defense – they were 23rd against the pass and 20th against the run. And they risk losing almost 2,000 snaps on the defensive line in free agency.
31: Cincinnati – S Daxton Hill On paper they have safeties, but I love this fit. First, Daxton will be on the field and can play all over as Cincinnati wants versatility on defense. Second, who knows what they may have at safety next year as Bates is on a franchise tag.
32: Detroit – QB Malik Willis With multiple 1sts next year they could get their QB next year, but at 32nd it is a low cost pick.
33: Jacksonville – EDGE David Ojabo
34: Detroit – CB Andrew Booth
35: NY Jets – DT Phidarian Mathis
36: NY Giants – OC Tyler Linderbaum I may be way wrong on Linderbaum and have him too low, but just wonder where he is worth taking, how many teams need a center (NYG, HOU, CIN, ARI, SF, and CHI is my list), who will like his size, and is he actually better than Creed Humphrey?
37: Houston – WR Christian Watson
38: NY Jets – LB Nakobe Dean
39: Chicago – WR Jahan Dotson
40: Seattle – LB Quay Walker
41: Seattle – OT Darian Kinnard
42: Indianapolis – WR George Pickens
43: Atlanta – WR John Metchie
44: Cleveland – DE Logan Hall
45: Baltimore – DT Travis Jones
46: Minnesota– CB Kyler Gordon
47: Washington – LB Channing Tindall
48: Chicago – OT Bernhard Raimann
49: Houston – LB Christian Harris
50: Kansas City – CB Roger McCreary
51: Philadelphia – DT Perrion Winfrey (EDP 58) He leads in so many categories – 1st in pressure rate above expectations, 5th in quick pressure rate, 1st total point rate per play. I really wanted Jordan Davis but will take Jameson and Perrion.
52: Pittsburgh – S Jalen Pitre
53: Green Bay – DE Josh Paschal
54: New England – LB Leo Chenal
55: Arizona – DT Devonte Wyatt
56: Dallas – EDGE Drake Jackson
57: Buffalo – OG/OC Dylan Parham
58: Atlanta – RB Breece Hall Love this fit – they need to improve in so many spots, normally I wouldn’t want a running back with such questions at QB but they have no playmakers on offense.
There are two very divisive differences of opinion when discussing which way a team should proceed regarding the Quarterback position.
One– You need an elite QB to have a chance in today’s NFL.
Two– You build a strong team, develop a QB, if and when a window opens to win (and you still need a QB) you make a move like the Rams and Bucs did.
Obviously, having an elite QB makes things easier and masks other deficiencies a team may have. The question is at what cost should you pay to acquire one, and what difference have they made for franchises in the past?
So, I decided to look back at what history tells us about the QB position, and the correlation between having an Elite QB on the roster, and winning a SB.
Fact or Myth Number 1:
“A QB needs an elite strong arm to succeed and win SBs”
This statement is a myth.
A history of QBs drafted who came out of college with the strongest arms:
This myth, is the reason the stronger armed QBs were taken in the first half of round one, while Brady, Rodgers and Brees were all taken later.
The seven traits that the most successful Quarterbacks in the league share are: anticipation, accuracy, footwork, pocket presence, athleticism, decision making and mental toughness. Arm strength is always talked amongst the fans the most, but every QB coach I spoke with never mentioned it.
Fact or Myth number 2:
“Trading 1st rd picks to acquire an elite QB gives you a better % chance of winning a SB”
This statement is a myth.
The only QBs who were dealt for multiple first round picks (omitting draft day deals for QBs such as Eli Manning, John Elway, and Brett Favre) that went on to win a SB for their new team just had to be updated. Why? Because prior to this season, the answer was ZERO. Until SB 56, no established QB acquired via trading multiple first round picks had ever won a SB. Matt Stafford is the only veteran QB to be acquired via multiple first round picks during their career to win a SB. Congrats Matt!
Fact or Myth number 3:
“Having an elite QB gives you more Super Bowl wins”
This statement is rooted both in fact and myth.
While trading multiple first round picks to “fix” a teams QB issue is not the way to succeed, as shown above. Drafting a QB first overall, overwhelmingly, does give you the greatest chance at SB glory and of finding your elite arm.
34.6 % of all QBs selected first overall, over the last 45 years, won a SB
This is by far the greatest advantadge a team has to win a SB. There are many factors that contribute to this. The team also selects first in every other round and cap friendly rookie contract also frees up money to build the team in other areas, etc. I would also imagine having a competent GM who can evaluate talent in choosing the best QB, also utilizes that skill to draft talented players at other positions as well.
QBs taken number one overall (26)
Total number one overall picks who won a SB: 9 (18 SBs)
“Seasoned Veterans like R Wilson (age 33) gives you a greater chance of winning a SB”
This statement is also a myth.
So what does the age of a QB tell us about a teams chances of winning a SB?
Of the 56 winning SB Quarterbacks, 30 have been won when the QB was aged 30 or younger.
25 or younger: 6 Super Bowls 10.7% 26–30 years old: 24 Super Bowls 42.9 31–35 years old: 17 Super Bowls 30.3% 36 or older: 9 Super Bowls 16.1%
(Brady = 4 of those over age 36)
The other 5: Elway twice, Unitas, P Manning, and Jim Plunkett
Average age of Super Bowl winning QB, in each decade:
2010s: 31 years old 2000s: 27 years old 1990s: 30.6 years old 1980s: 30.8 years old 1970s: 30 years old 1960s: 30.7 years old
Having a QB, 30 or younger, wins the SB 61% of the time if you omit “the unicorn” that is Tom Brady. 54% of the time otherwise. Tom skews the entire narrative 7% all by himself. He is the only outlier. Ever.
The greatest QB in NFL history (Tom Brady) was taken in the 6th round!
Fun Super Bowl Facts:
26 different Quarterbacks have won the Super Bowl in the last 45 years
Total number of QB taken in the first round (not #1 overall) who won the SB:8 (totaling 9 SBs)
17.8% of QB drafted in the first rd (not 1st overall) over the last 45 yrs won SB
34.6 % of all QBs selected first overall, over the last 45 years, won a SB
In contrast:
1 QB who was traded to a team for multiple first round picks during their career has won a Super Bowl.
The most proven, successful, way to build a winner is drafting and developing a first round QB.
Total number of QB taken in the 2nd rd or later to win a SB: 10 QBs totaling 19 SBs.
QBs drafted first overall never to win a SB as a starter:
JaMarcus Russell, Michael Vick, Andrew Luck, Vinny Testaverde, Jared Goff, Alex Smith, Carson Palmer, Jeff George, Baker Mayfield, Tim Couch, Steve Bartowski, Sam Bradford, Kyler Murray, Jameis Winston, Derek Carr, Joe Burrow
Of the 112 teams that have reached the Super Bowl, 91 of them ranked in the Top 10 in scoring defense. 91!
Over the last 45 years the #1 ranked defense has won 28.57 of SB
Over the last 45 years the #1 ranked offense has won 20.41of SB
The Packers have had 30 straight years of elite QB play, yet only won 2 SB during this time.
When Rodgers won the SB in 2010, the defense was second in pts allowed (240). In 1996 when Favre won his SB, the defense allowed the fewest pts (210) in the entire NFL.
Are you seeing a pattern emerge yet?
The Top Ten Paid QBs in 2021:
P Mahomes $45 million J Allen $43 million Dak Prescott $40 million Deshaun Watson $39 million R Wilson$35 million Rodgers $33.5 million Goff $33.5 million K Cousins $33 million Wentz $32 million M Ryan $30 million
How many of those QBs won or were even in SB this yr?
Very hard to win with that much money allocated to a single player, it is the reason why Brady constantly reworked his contract and accepted his money being deferred. He wanted to win.
Joe Burrow is the only QB drafted first overall to win a DIVISIONAL playoff game within their first 2 seasons, ever.
Joe Burrow and Russell Wilson are the only (2) second year QBs in the last ten years to win 2 playoff games.
Defensive Rankings for SB winners:
Big Ben won 2 SBs def ranked 1 & 4
Rodgers 1 SB def ranked 2
Wilson 1 SB def ranked 1
Foles/Wentz 1 SB def ranked 4
Even the great Tom Brady 7 SB def ranked; 6, 1, 2, 8, 1, 7, 1
Some outliers like, Eli Manning. His 2 SB wins with the Giants were accomplished with defensive rankings of 17 &25 and the offense ranked 14 & 9. Both were very improbable SB wins. How improbable?
Cra Cra:
Only one QB has even won a Super Bowl while having the rank of their offense and defense equal a combined CRA total over 15
(CRA= combined ranked average)
That QB is Eli Manning. He did it twice!
(Ex: 3rd ranked Offense plus the 5th ranked Def = a CRA of 8)
2011 Giants had the 9th ranked off and 25th ranked def CRA=17
2007 Giants had the 14th ranked off and the 17th ranked def CRA=15.5
The average team that wins the SB has a CRA of 5.75. Meaning they usually have one of the top 5–6 offenses and defenses. (Or a #1 ranked offense with a 10th ranked def to average 5, or vice versa)
So in conclusion what does history tell us?
The day a struggling NFL team drafts a successful college QB in the first round is always filled with such hope and promise. The front office, players, and fan base all imagine the coming success and what it will be like to finally have a franchise QB lead their team to victory. The years of despair and bad QB play is finally coming to an end. All of the frustration and disappointment of watching inferior play while the losses pile up will be ending too.
Until, it doesn’t.
Sadly, kinda like buying a boat, the two greatest days are the one you get it, and the day you get rid of it.
Eagles fans know this with Wentz. More often than not, after a few frustrating years, everyone has seen enough of the shiny new toy that didn’t live up to expectations.
The emotional roller coaster of working, playing, or rooting for a team that is constantly on the Quarterback carousel is exhausting. It is also rarely successful. Identifying, drafting, developing, and keeping your franchise QB is the formula that has proven to be long term success.
If you looked at the list of SB winning QBs above, outside of the fact that most are first round picks, you will see the other important part of the equation. Teams keep their QBs. Bradshaw, Montana, Brady, Rodgers etc all spend 10 plus years with the same franchise. Through the ups and downs, season after season, teams will make many changes. The franchise QB is never one of those changes. They are always the constant.
Even for teams that don’t win a SB early on with their investment, they stay the course. (Ex: Elway finally won the SB in his 15th and 16th year! It also took Peyton Manning 9 seasons before he won his first, and he didn’t win another until his 18th year.
Coincidentally, Elway and Peyton are the only 2 QBs to retire after a SB win.
Teams always hold onto their prized possession. Since the salary cap was implemented in 1994, the QBs who have been willing to move money around, or accept less for the good of the team (like Brady) have won the most titles. For the teams with QBs who demand the highest salaries (Rodgers, Mahomes) they are usually, always competitive, but historically have only won 1 SB. In addition to being one and done as far as winning titles, the teammates, front office, and fans have watched their best players leave due to roster constraints regarding the cap.
This year alone, Rodgers and the Packers lost D Adams and the Chiefs and Mahomes lost T Hill. Something that rarely ever happened. Joe Montana and Jerry Rice, Steve Young and Jerry Rice, Troy Aikman and Michael Irvin, Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison, Kurt Warner and Isaac Bruce etc. Those pairings became synonymous, and legendary.
“You left Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes, I don’t know if I could’ve ever left Troy Aikman. I don’t think I could’ve done that.” Michael Irvin
There is not a position more valuable on the field than QB. There is nothing more valuable in the game than an elite QB.
“Elite” seems to mean different things to different people, but I would categorize it as being a top 5 QB. (Is top 10 really elite in a league of 32 teams? That’s 30% of all QBs being called elite.) A top 5 QB in their prime rarely, if ever, becomes available or at cost that will help a GM acquire one, while being able to manage a cap to put a winner on the field at the same time.
In short, drafting a QB in the first round doesn’t insure a SB but it does, without question, give teams their largest percentage advantage of winning one.
When Philadelphia Eagles GM Howie Roseman, regrettably, stated “We want to be a QB factory”, he was being honest and 100% correct. The best path to success in the NFL is by drafting first round QBs. Unfortunately, due to said salary cap and the fact only 1 QB can start, it is almost impossible to keep stocking up on first round QB’s more than every 4–5 years. You can keep drafting wide receivers in the first round (as the Eagles are finding out) as 3 or 4 can be on the field simultaneously. If you miss on one, as long as they’re serviceable, they become WR 3 instead of one. It is almost impossible to have 3 first round QBs on a team.
As the Eagles learned when they drafted Jalen Hurts, and the Packers have learned drafting Love, a QB’s psyche can’t seem to take the competitive spirit as well as the other positions. They regard themselves as not having to be in position that requires competition. To be fair, the media and fanbase immediately see it as a QB controversy too.
So.
Does having an elite QB give you more chances to make the playoffs? Yes, but the caveat is acquiring one you drafted in the first round.
Does having a top tier QB guarantee that you win more Super Bowls? No
Having a QB drafted in the first round does.
It takes a team, great relationships, good health, a lot of luck and hitting on Quarterbacks drafted in the first round.
You can’t go on a QB carousel every year.
Finding a player like Josh Allen, is like finding a needle in a haystack.
The Browns have been trying to find an elite QB for 22 years (since selecting Tim Couch ahead of D McNabb) and they have had much more draft capital (via terrible records) and much higher first round picks than any other team during that span.
Every GM in the league is trying to draft the next Mahomes etc.
Had the Eagles traded for R Wilson (who would have been 34 years old this season), historically, would not have resulted into winning a championship. Again omitting the unicorn that is Brady (he is the only outlier, numerous 1 hit wonders have won the SB they’re not the outlier) leaves five SB wins for Quarterbacks 35 and over. That means you have a 9% chance to win the SB, historically, with a QB over 35. Aaron Rodgers hasn’t done it. Montana didn’t, Bradshaw didn’t, Aikman didn’t, and they are all HOF QB who were the best of their era. That statistic exemplifies how rare it is to win a SB with an aging QB.
You get the picture. It takes a team!
Teams With Regrets:
Rams sent Roman Gabriel to the Eagles in 1973. In exchange for the former MVP, then 33 years old, Los Angeles received 2 first-rd picks & acclaimed wideout Harold Jackson. Eagles got one good season out of Gabriel.
49ers traded 3 first-rounders and a 2nd to the Patriots for Plunkett in 1976
Plunkett won his Super Bowls with the Oakland Raiders
One Eagles only Fact or Myth:
Specifically regarding the Philadelphia Eagles, there is a great divide between Hurt truthers and doubters. Every time I read a tweet about Jalen, or a story on him, the comments from his detractors are always the same.
I researched one of these comments that has been stated a lot regarding his statistics in 2021, mainly used to validate their opinion that he is not very good.
Regardless of the debates, the numbers, or how many games they’ve won. Until a player becomes perceived as the long term franchise QB, teams will always be looking for their guy.
In real life a common phrase I hear is “you can only count on two things in this world, death and taxes”.
In the NFL there are only two types of teams. Those with an elite QB, and those that are looking for one.
Gods, Lions, and National Champions: In the Year of the Punter, Jordan Stout Stands Above
The 2022 draft is widely expected to be a deep class for pass rushers, corners, and wide receivers but it may turn out to be one of the best punter classes in a long time. San Diego State’s Matt Araiza, Colorado State’s Ryan Stonehouse, National Champion Jake Camarda, and Penn State’s Jordan Stout are all draftable. And I believe Stout, who was kind enough to speak with me for this article, is not only the best in this class but projects to be one of the best punters to enter the NFL over the past 20 years.
Specialists can be forgotten positions with the league’s recent increase in 4th down aggressiveness and the analytic community’s obsession with Expected Points Added (EPA) justifying, on paper, passing-in-all-situations. But I started digging into punter data months ago to change that view and to answer how much a good punter is worth and when to draft one. I didn’t set out to de-throne a god, but when you look at what generates the most punting value, Jordan Stout stands out from the rest of the class.
From soccer to kicking specialist to the nation’s top punter
Jordan came to punting relatively late in his career. Like many kickers, Jordan started off playing soccer in high school when the quarterback of his high school team asked if he could kick field goals. He tried one, made a 40-yarder, and his football career began.
Growing up in Cedar Bluff, Virginia in western Virginia where the Hokies rule, Jordan walked on at Virginia Tech to kick. Serving primarily as their kickoff specialist and an occasional extra point or field goal attempt, Jordan finished third among college kickers with an 84.5% touchback percentage. But playing behind sophomore and now-Chicago Bear kicker Brian Johnson, Jordan entered the transfer portal to have a better shot at playing. Penn State moved quickly and Jordan moved north.
In his sophomore year at Penn State, Jordan continued his kickoff duties but started to make his mark as their long field goal specialist. In his first game he kicked a 53-yarder against Idaho. Then, in week three Stout came on right before halftime and set a Penn State record by hitting a 57-yard field goal against my alma mater Pitt.
Penn State kicker Jordan Stout drilled a 57-yard FG to close out the half 🤯
That offseason, with Penn State’s punter and now New Orleans Saint Blake Gillikin graduating, Jordan worked hard to add punting to his skillset. I asked Jordan when the staff knew his potential and he explained:
They realized I had a fast leg before I even arrived, but when I got there and showed them my repeatability that’s when they began to trust me.”
While still handling kickoffs and long field goals, Jordan took 33 punts with a 41.6 yard average and 38.9 yard net, a good but unremarkable first season punting. But digging deeper into the punting data, he showed some of the high-level traits that would make him a great punter the next season – his 4.14 average hang time was 8th best in college and he showed great short-field control with 8 downed punts inside the 20 yardline vs. only 1 touchback.
After only 33 career punts through his redshirt junior season, Jordan focused this past offseason on punting and took a giant step forward in 2021.
44.6 net yardage (3rd in college behind on Michael Turk and Adam Korsak)
4.34 second hang time (1st)
2.7 average return yards allowed (3rd)
An elite ratio of 37 punts downed inside the 20 vs. only 3 touchbacks
NFL-level operation time with no blocked punts in college
What analytics shows: Punt value (as measured by EPA+) is driven by punt distance and hangtime. Punters that lead in punt value have a +1 to +3 point impact per game in the NFL vs. a league average punter and +3 to +5 point impact vs. the bottom punters
This is one of the all-time best punter draft classes with National Champion bulldog Jake Camarda, San Diego State’s punt god Matt Araiza, Colorado State’s Ryan Stonehouse, and Jordan Stout. All are some of the best measured punters in recent history and each is draftable but Jordan stands alone. The below shows every college punter since 2016 by their average hang time and punt distance.
Nobody in college last year neared Jordan’s combination of distance, hang time, and short-field accuracy. And since 2016, as far back as there is reliable punting data, only Sterling Hofrichter in 2020 (43.0 distance and 4.51 average hangtime) and Michael Turk in 2021 (45.6 and 4.20) approached Jordan in both.
And putting these numbers in context to the NFL, last season only one punter – Bryan Anger (punting in a dome) edged out Stout’s numbers. In 2020, Jack Fox (another dome punter) and Jake Bailey were the only two. And in the 2017, 2018, and 2019 seasons, no NFL punter equaled Jordan’s numbers. What he did this year was special.
“Wins”, locating the ball, and preventing returns
What analytics shows:Every extra return yard an opponent is allowed raises their expected scoring by 0.07 points per yard on their next drive
Distance alone gets the headlines but it is not what punting value is about. The punt god Matt Araiza is a great punter, one of the best to come out, but there is much more to punting than distance. Intentionally going for pure distance, his 3.92 second average hang time allowed an average return of 10.5 yards. In the NFL where return units are better, this won’t work.
Stout was the best in college, only allowing 15 of his punts to have an attempted return with only 7 going for positive yards. He allowed a total of 41 total return yards on 67 punts all season, by far the lowest return average allowed among this class (Camarda allowed a 9.6 average, Stonehouse was at 13.0, and Araiza at 10.5).
And Jordan is the only college punter since 2016 with at least a 45.0 average distance and a 2.7 yard per return average. Only one other punter (Texas’ Cameron Dicker this past season) was close with a 2.9 yards per return allowed.
Punts
# Returned (% Returned)
Total Return Yards (YPA)
# Positive Return Yds (% Positive Returns)
Jordan Stout
67
15 (22.4%)
41 (2.7)
7 (10.4%)
Matt Araiza
86
23 (28.4%)
242 (10.5)
16 (18.6%)
Jake Camarda
47
12 (25.5%)
115 (9.6)
9 (19.1%)
Ryan Stonehouse
60
21 (35%)
272 (13.0)
19 (31.7%)
Again to put Jordan’s 2.7 return yards per punt in context, in the NFL last season among punters with at least a 40 yard average, the best return yardage per punt allowed was 5.0 and the average was 8.6 yards.
Return yardage is not solely a punter stat as it depends on the coverage unit and Jordan points to the Penn State punt unit:
First off having great gunners is very important. The guys here that I had helped me tremendously. Definitely the best gunners in the nation. Also for me just working on placement directionally each time I punt helps.“
But a punter’s ability to place the ball near the sideline and keep the ball in the air to allow his cover team to get downfield is critical to limiting return yardage. And in 2021, Jordan was college’s most accurate punter. He explained his accuracy improvement in 2021 to BlueWhite Illustrated:
I think one of my strengths is directional punting. Compared to 2020, I think I was 38 win percentage. A win is putting the ball outside the hash. This year, I was 91 percent.”
There are a ton of good punting clips this draft year, I know, I think I have watched every one of them. But this one from the Senior Bowl shows both Jordan’s distance and his ability to locate kicks.
I’m not sure you will see a better punt – punting from his own 29 on a day that was cold with wind up to 20 mph, Jordan lands the ball within feet of the sideline at the 10, forcing one of college’s best returners, Velus Jones, backwards for a loss. For the day, he averaged a net of over 50 yards with a 4.59 second average hangtime on four punts, allowing minus 4 yards of returns.
Short-field punting and downing inside the 20
What analytics shows:Downing inside the 10 yardline is worth almost a full point vs. a touchback
Short-field punts are any punt attempted from midfield or closer to the opponent’s endzone. Analytically, these need to be separated out and looked at differently from other punts for two reasons: first, short-field punts suppress punter distance averages because the goal is not to kick as far as possible and second, placement and hangtime are critical as there is a big difference in value between a touchback and downing inside the 10 yardline.
In the post “What’s the Value of a Good Punt?“, I looked at actual scoring data between 2010-2021 and punts downed inside the 10 yardline lower opponent scoring by over 0.50 points. And, there is a carryover benefit to the punting team’s next possession, raising scoring by 0.47 points. A touchback actually “costs” the punting team, on average, almost a full point of value vs. a punt that is downed inside the 10.
Jordan was elite in short-field punts forcing an average starting field position on the 7 yardline and allowing zero touchbacks in 2021. Jake Camarda was also very good, forcing opponents to also start on the 7 yardline with only 1 touchback. Matt Araiza had 7 of his 19 short-field punts go for touchback with an average starting field position allowed on the 13 yardline. Stonehouse had the worst short-field performance – on 11 short-field punts, opponents had an average starting field position on the 19 yard line primarily because he put 6 into the endzone for a touchback.
# Short-Field Punts
Avg. Opponent Starting Yardline
# Touchbacks (% Touchback)
Jordan Stout
12
7
0 (0%)
Jake Camarda
6
7
1 (17%)
Matt Araiza
19
13
7 (37%)
Ryan Stonehouse
11
19
6 (55%)
And Stout did this all season. For people that like punting, the Penn State / Rutgers game was the punting Super Bowl with Stout going against Rutgers’ Adam Korsak, who will be one of the top punters in next year’s class. The game started with 12 straight punts, 18 total punts in a field position battle game. Jordan showed how a great punter can impact a game – here is what he did to the Rutgers offense:
Stout Punt
RUT Starting Field Position
RUT Drive Result
52 yard punt from PSU 41, 12 yard return
RUT 19
1 yard, punt
38 yard punt from RUT 41, no return
RUT 3
3 yards, punt
36 yard punt from RUT 56, no return
RUT 8
9 yards, punt
47 yard punt from PSU 44, no return
RUT 9
31 yards, punt
39 yard punt from PSU 39, RUT return penalty
RUT 14
28 yards, punt
53 yard punt from PSU 28, no return
RUT 19
14 yards, punt
41 yard punt from PSU 26, no return
RUT 33
11 yards, punt
37 yard punt from RUT 40, no return
RUT 3
1 yard, punt
On his three short-field punts, he had Rutgers start on the 3 yardline twice and the 8 yardline the other. Across all 8 punts including three from 60 or more yards out, he forced an average start on the 13 yardline and allowed 12 total return yards for the game. Only once did Rutgers start outside their own 20 yardline.
This was the only game last season where Rutgers was held scoreless. Is this because of Stout’s punting? No, not only. But data shows a team’s expected scoring from inside the 20 yardline is less than 0.56 points per drive and is actually negative inside the 12 yardline. People may look at this and say “well, it was Rutgers” but they averaged 40 points per game in 2021, including scoring 13 against three ranked teams in the regular season (Ohio State, Michigan, and Michigan State) and 10 against 15th ranked Wake Forest in the Gator Bowl. They had no chance starting inside their 20 yardline on most drives.
Conditions: weather and elevation
What analytics shows:Punt distance increases by ~10% at 5,000 feet of elevation and cold weather decreases punt distance by a yard.
Conditions and weather are often overlooked, especially when just looking at analytics. I asked Jordan what most people don’t realize about punting and he pointed to weather.
What most people don’t realize is how much conditions can change the punt. If it’s windy the chances of you hitting a good ball decrease by a lot. As well as rain and snow. However that’s something you have to adjust to. Especially in college because there are no domes.”
Wind obviously greatly affects the quality of a punt but temperature impacts it as well. A 2011 study of NFL punting showed that below 39 degrees, punts average 1 yard shorter than warmer conditions. Of the top four punter prospects this year, Jordan is the only northern punter. For NFL teams that play outside and in poor weather
Besides weather and wind, the other often overlooked condition is elevation. Physicists and historical data both point to a 10% distance gain on kicks at Denver’s elevation. One specific study by Timothy Gay, a professor at the University of Nebraska, looked at the difference in kickoff distance at elevation for his book “Football Physics, the Science of the Game”. He found that for the same kickers, kicks in Denver traveled 7.3 yards further than lower elevation cities (70.1 yards in Denver vs. 62.8 away, again around the 10% gain range).
Ryan Stonehouse at Colorado State obviously benefits here, playing at home in Colorado and several away games at elevation. 70% of Stonehouse’s punts were above 3,900 feet and he averaged almost 3 yards more at elevation. Even Matt Araiza, whose home field is at sea level, kicked 17% of the time at elevation because of his conference (Air Force at 5,000 feet, Arizona at almost 2,400, and UNLV at 2,000). Ignoring short field punts which skew averages, Araiza averaged 3.5 yards further when kicking at elevation. Granted, this falls into the “small sample size” category with only 17 total kicks at elevation and his distance was still very good at sea level. But there is a benefit kicking at elevation.
I asked Jordan about pre-draft interest from NFL teams and his experience kicking in the north is something not being overloooked.
Playing in the north has definitely helped me in the long run. Most of the teams that primarily play cold games can see that I’m capable of performing well in the cold”
What does the future hold?
All four of this year’s punters – Matt Araiza, Ryan Stonehouse, Jake Camarda, and Jordan Stout – should be drafted and deserve to be. And I expect three, if not all four, will be. On average, the league drafts just over two punters each year with a median pick location of 170, near the middle of the 5th round. But there have been a few notable draft classes since 2000:
2018 – The third highest amount of draft capital used on punters with four punters drafted, three in the fifth round, and that class brought two of the league’s top punters, Michael Dickson and Logan Cooke, to the NFL.
2007 – The second highest amount of draft capital used on punters with three punters drafted including Daniel Sepulveda and Adam Podlesh in the 4th.
2004 – The best punter class of the past twenty years with BJ Sander in the 3rd, all-timer Andy Lee in the 6th, and future Eagle Donnie Jones in the 7th.
A lot of people are excited about this group of punters with more mocks taking punters than I ever remember. And this makes sense. In “Drafting a Punter Makes Analytical Sense” I showed the expected value of a punter exceeds any other position in the 5th round around pick 155. Here you get the best at their position vs. the 20th or 30th player at another position. Smart teams, especially those that need a punter, will take one here. And I expect punters to start being taken as early as 130-140 this year.
I started digging into punting analytics to see where in the draft it made sense to take a punter and what the real value of punting is. Going in, I expected two things: that the value of punting was quickly decreasing and that this year’s punt god really was special.
The decline of punting is greatly exaggerated – while 4th down aggressiveness is up, NFL teams punt on average almost 4 times per game and still 53% of the time in plus territory. What other position taken on day three of the draft will consistently impact a game by +3 or more points?
And this is a special class – it is definitely one of the best punting classes over the past twenty years and maybe the best class since 2004. Matt Araiza is so fun to watch and deserving of the punt god name. National Champion Jake Camarda will be a solid NFL punter and in any other year would be talked about much more. But as I dug into the data, Nittany Lion Jordan Stout just stands above the rest.
No other punter has his combination of distance, hangtime, and placement. Jordan also kicks and while NFL teams have long ago moved away from rostering a single punter and kicker, he adds value here, especially on kickoffs. Matt Araiza also kicks but one difference is Matt kicks left-footed which is often overlooked – it is a big deal to switch a snap and holder’s direction on field goals. Left-footed kickers are very rare in the NFL – last season there was only one.
I asked Jordan if teams are interested in his kicking leading up to the draft:
Punting has been the big thing for me, however teams still talk to me about potentially doing both, or just handling punting kickoffs and long field goals.”
And the best may be yet to come for Jordan and the rest of this class. At the NFL Combine, he was asked about the difference in the NFL ball:
Oh man, it’s so much better. The NFL ball, it’s a little bigger… all around it makes us look better”
And judging by the punts by this entire group at the Combine, NFL return teams should take note and be prepared.
And if you want, here are some long and short-field punts from 2021.
And a consolidated summary of stats above:
Credits to the following for this article:
Jordan Stout (@JordanStout92) who was kind with his time to speak
Puntalytics (@ThePuntRunts) who has the best punter value data out there
BlueWhite Illustrated (on3.com) for several Stout quotes and articles
Eagles Draft History: The Best Individual Performance of a Draft Pick
When you look at the best individual performances of Eagles draft picks, there are several that stand out:
Donovan McNabb, 2002 week 11 vs. Arizona – Breaking his ankle on the 3rd play of the game, McNabb stays in and goes 20/25/255 with 4 touchdowns and a 0.237 EPA/play.
Brian Dawkins, 2002 week 4 vs. Houston – Dawkins famous “Quadrafecta” game where he became the only player to ever record a sack, forced fumble, interception, and a touchdown catch in a single game.
Brian Westbrook, 2006 week 7 vs. Tampa Bay – Westbrook has over 100 yards rushing and receiving, just the 25th time that happened in the NFL. The Eagles gave up a game-winning 62 yard field goal as time expires to lose 23-21, but Westbrook generates a silly 15.9 cumulative EPA and 0.800 EPA/play.
Eric Allen, 1993 season – Allen, the Eagles best cornerback and David’s favorite Eagle, caught six interceptions in 1993, with four of them being returned for touchdowns including his 94-yard return against the Jets which has been called the greatest interception return ever. Prior to advanced tracking data, Allen’s career doesn’t have targeted passing rates but he was one of the best corners in the league and what the Eagles have not had often – a player that just couldn’t be thrown at.
But the best performance of any draft pick has to be Nick Foles in the 2017 playoffs.
Nick Foles’ 2017 playoff run
In my last draft history post, I looked at the 10 best draft values for the Eagles since 2000 and Foles was #4 on the list. Because of the position, quarterbacks always rank high on value metrics but the reason Foles is on the list is because of how incredibly good he was in spurts. There may not be another QB who was so up and down through their career, but Foles’ “ups” are some of the best in quarterback history and what brought a Super Bowl to Philly.
Foles has three games that could actually win “best Eagles draft pick performance” with three 99th percentile quarterback games:
Foles’ famous game where he had more touchdowns (7) than incompletions (6). While it’s hard to say something is more impressive than that, his absolutely silly 1.28 EPA per play and 22.2% completion percentage over expected (CPOE) is. He attacked deep all day, with 10 explosive plays including three completions that went over 30 air yards – a 36 yard touchdown to DeSean, a 47 yard touchdown to Riley Cooper, and another 59 yard pass to DeSean. His EPA/play ranks as the 14th best quarterback EPA out of 11,670 QB games since 2000 and his CPOE ranks 60th.
If you have 4 minutes, you can re-watch his passes here – it really is a beautiful thing to watch Nick play when he knows whatever he does will work:
Nowhere near as gaudy of a performance as the Oakland game, but one of the most efficient QB games played. His 24.6% CPOE is the 26th best CPOE game since 2000. Up 33-11 in the 3rd quarter, Foles’ last pass attempt of the game came with over 5 minutes left in the third.
Foles again was at his best but this time on a big stage:
Against the #1 rated defense: The above games were both regular season games against mediocre (Oakland) or bad (Chicago) defenses, but this game was against the number one overall rated defense and second best passing defense in the NFL by DVOA. We forget how good that Minnesota defense was because the game got out of hand quickly – for the season, the Vikings allowed an average -0.120 EPA per dropback – in the last 10 years only two other teams have equaled that mark.
The best conference championship or Super Bowl passing game: Across all playoff games, Foles had the 16th best EPA/play and 3rd best CPOE game. Out of championship or Super Bowl games only, this is the number one rated passing game by EPA+CPOE composite score by a good margin. The only game even close to this game is Matt Ryan‘s Super Bowl loss to New England.
Deep passing: Foles had an insane 35.8% CPOE and 2.29 EPA/play on passes over 20 yards, going 4/6 for 172 yards and 2 touchdowns with a 39.3 average depth of throw on deep targets. His 13.8 cumulative EPA on deep passing is 5th best in any playoff game and the top conference championship or Super Bowl performance.
If you have 4 minutes, you can re-watch every one of his throws here. He was efficient, accurate, and attacking. And re-watching it, he had another 50 yard pass that could / should have been caught early in the game.
Foles’ 2017 Postseason
And when you string together Foles’ three 2017 postseason games against Atlanta, Minnesota, and New England, he had the single best postseason performance of any QB. In the 2017 playoffs, Foles averaged a 0.555 EPA per play and a 10.9% CPOE in the postseason. Below shows all playoff QB performances since 2000 with Foles’ 2017 having the best composite ranking.
Not Brady, not Rodgers, not Brees, no other QB strung together a better 3+ postseason game stretch than Foles. Here are the next best QB postseason performances:
Matt Ryan, 2016: 0.690 EPA/play and an 8.36 CPOE, losing in the Super Bowl in their devastating loss after being up 28-3.
Aaron Rodgers, 2010: 0.420 EPA/play and a 7.13 CPOE giving Rodgers his only Super Bowl.
Drew Brees, 2009: 0.393 EPA/play and a 6.71 CPOE in his Super Bowl win.
Tom Brady, 2011: 0.327 EPA/play and a 6.32 CPOE in one of his few Super Bowl losses to the Giants.
At the time, I thought the Eagles were a team where things were just going right and that they would have won with Carson. But when you look at what Foles did, how Foles playing at a level better than any quarterback over at least the past twenty years and how every bit of that was needed to win, my opinion changed. Foles didn’t have the best career but he had the best string of games at the most important point in Eagles history.
The 75 players above are listed in order, with their positional class:
QB: (5)
Malik Willis
Kenny Pickett
Desmond Ridder
Sam Howell
Matt Corall
WR: (13)
Garrett Wilson
Jameson Williams
Drake London
Treylon Burks
Chris Olave
Jahan Dotson
Christian Watson
George Pickens
Skyy Moore
Erik Ezukanma
John Metchie III
Alec Pierce
David Bell
RB: (3)
Breece Hall
Kenneth Walker III
Brian Robinson Jr.
TE: (1)
Trey McBride
OT: (7)
Ikem Ewkonu
Evan Neal
Charles Cross
Trevor Penning
Tyler Smith
Darian Kinnard
Bernhard Raimann
OG: (5)
Kenyon Green
Sean Rhyan
Zion Johnson
Lecitus Smith
Cole Strange
C: (1)
Tyler Linderbaum
Edge: (11)
Aidan Hutchinson
Travon Walker
Jermaine Johnson
Kayvon Thibodeaux
George Karlafitis
David Ojabo
Drake Jackson
Arnold Ebiketie
Boye Mafe
Kingsley Enagbare
Cameron Thomas
DT: (7)
Jordan Davis
Devonte Wyatt
Perrion Winfrey
Logan Hall
DeMarvin Leal
Phidarian Mathis
Travis Jones
LB: (6)
Devin lloyd
Nakobe Dean
Chad Muma
Quay Walker
Christian Harris
Channing Tindall
CB: (9)
Ahmad Gardner
Derek Stingley Jr
Kaiir Elam
Andrew Booth Jr
Trent McDuffie
Roger McCreary
Tariq Woolen
Kyler Gordon
Cam Britt-Taylor
S: (7)
Kyle Hamilton
Daxton Hill
Lewis Cine
Jaquan Brisker
Jalen Pitre
Bryan Cook
Kerby Joseph
A BIG Thank You to everyone who provides the clips and film breakdowns for the rest of us to study and learn from.
Follow a couple of them, listed below
@mattalkire @ian_cummings_9
You can find out what they have to say about each player by searching the prospects name behind their twitter handle in the search field.
Ex: @mattalkire Aidan
As always, thank you for reading
David
follow me @PHLEagleNews
4/6/22
Eagles Draft History: Making Sense of Howie’s Drafts
Howie is pretty open on how he prioritizes positions but despite that, many still get frustrated when drafts don’t follow our mocks with linebackers going in the 1st. Here I look back at which positions the Eagles have most often taken or used the most draft capital on during Howie’s tenure.
First to set context, below is a chart I used before and shows free agency spend data by position to show which positions are premium positions that teams across the league are willing to pay up for.
In a passing league, positions most closely related to passing are the most valuable positions. Pass rushers, pass defenders, pass catchers, and quarterbacks are the positions bid up most in free agency. And they are the positions prioritized in the draft year after year across the league.
Howie’s draft strategy is consistent in allocating the most draft capital to the premium positions. The below shows how Howie has used draft capital by position. For each position and year there are two numbers – the top number is simply the number of picks used on a position and the second number is the total draft capital used on that position that year (I am using an expected Approximate Value metric by pick location to define draft capital). For example, in 2021 one defensive back was taken (Zech McPhearson) with a total draft capital of 2.21 (an expected AV for pick 4-123).
Some of my takeaways from Howie’s tenure (2015 is the one year Howie did not run but I left it in as Chip’s draft doesn’t change the story):
Howie spends on the premium positions: Howie has used the most picks and draft capital on the same premium positions. 55% of picks and 57% of draft capital have been used on EDGEs, corners, receivers, and quarterbacks over Howie’s tenure. Excluding QBs, it is still 48% of picks and 50% of draft capital.
Howie isn’t as bad on linebackers as most think: Does Howie take linebackers high? No. Mychal Kendricks was a 2nd rounder in 2012 and Davion Taylor and Jordan Hicks were both 3rd rounders. The other nine LBs were all day 3 picks. But LB is 4th on the list of draft capital used. And this makes sense no matter how much many disagree – look back up at the first chart I showed on free agency costs and LBs are a better relative value to get in free agency.
The investments made and the hit rate are two different things: Howie is widely criticized (justly) for his hit rate on top picks. While there has been a good amount of draft capital spent on cornerbacks and wide receivers, the majority of these picks have underperformed. The below chart shows the aggregate values of draft picks by position vs. the expected value for that pick over Howie’s tenure (positive numbers are outperforming expected value on a pick, negative values are misses).
Some takeaways, most of which are not unearthing anything not already known:
Underperforming at premium positions – Howie has been consistently bad drafting corners and receivers. The lone bright spot for corners is in round 7 where both Jalen Mills and Jordan Poyer were hits (I recently wrote on the best Eagles draft values here and both Mills and Poyer are in the top 10). My issue on corner is while the total investment is good, corners have not been taken high – corners are tough to hit on but their hit rate drops quicker than any position other than QB after round 1. DeVonta and Quez saved receivers recently in the 1st and 6th. EDGEs were crushed because of Marcus Smith and Barnett has underperformed.
The first round has been bad – Only four of eleven 1st rounders have exceeded their expected draft value – DeVonta Smith, Wentz (even an ok QB will outperform expected draft value because of the high value of QBs), Fletch, and Lane Johnson. And while everybody misses, the picks of Marcus Smith, the fireman, and Jalen Reagor were all widely seen as big reaches. Andre Dillard was a miss and Derek Barnett has underperformed. On the positive side, while it is early, last year’s BPA draft is currently Howie’s best draft with picks in both of the first two rounds outperforming expected value. Let’s hope that repeats this year.
Howie shines on day 3 – Later round picks have almost no value so just exceeding expected value isn’t anything great – a multi-year backup would outperform expected draft value but isn’t impactful to the team. But Howie has actually greatly outperformed on day 3 with some truly great finds. Jordan Mailata, Jason Kelce, Jordan Poyer, and it is looking like Josh Sweat are all top of league starters. Jalen Mills, Dion Lewis, Vaitai, Quez Watkins, Kenny Gainwell, and Jack Driscoll are all day three picks that are solid players and much better value than expected. Howie’s performance here is one of the best in the league – he is:
1st in the league in round 7 value over the past 5 and 10 year periods
3rd best in the league in day three value over the past 5 years (behind SF and Green Bay) and 7th best in the league over the past 10 years
The Eagles aren’t as bad as we all think – Every team has their misses, we are just so close to the Eagles and their misses are so noticeably bad. Evaluating talent is hard and the best are wrong way too often, but it is bad when every single fan would have made the right (or better) decision on the biggest misses on Reagor and Marcus Smith and the fireman. We know some of the background that some of these picks didn’t come from outside of Howie but results are results. But taking all of the good and the bad, the Eagles are 12th in the league in value vs. expected over the past five years:
Even the best teams will have drafts that look bad for certain positions or rounds, evaluating players is just too hard to consistently get more right than others. But the criticism on top draft picks is absolutely legitimate.
Just changing one of these like Reagor for Jefferson makes a huge difference and would move the Eagles from 12th to 8th in the league. Swapping JJ Arcega-Whiteside not even for D.K. Metcalf but a league average receiver moves the Eagles even further up. You can’t cherrypick, the total performance is what it is, but the Eagles aren’t greatly different from a lot of the teams – their misses are just so much more visible (thinking about the video of Minnesota celebrating when the Reagor pick came in).
Oh, and last thing, unless Howie is convinced they have the next Darius Leonard or Micah Parsons, we can all stop mocking 1st round linebackers (and he will probably make me eat those words…)
A couple of notes on the data which is sourced from ProFootballReference:
Cornerbacks and safeties are combined into a defensive back grouping because the historical data is not consistent separating them.
Linebackers may surprise many by being fairly high and like the secondary, historical data does not do a good job separating on and off ball LBs. The pass rushing LBs are the ones pushing the draft capital utilization up.
The Extraordinarily Versatile Erik Ezukanma, NFL Draft Profile
If your team is in need of a wide receiver, and you like YAC (yards after catch). You are going to love Chukwuerika “Erik” Ezukanma!
Erik has been blessed with elite size, 6’3 220 lbs, and above average speed. Explosive and balanced while running his routes and after the catch, a simple arm tackle will not get him down. He is fearless and violent and always looking to hit the DB, not the other way around. Ezukanma uses his solid frame to shield off defenders on 50/50 balls, as well as his leaping ability, strong hands,and large catch radius. All of these attributes have enabled Erik to be an outstanding red zone threat.
During his career he has shown fantastic ball skills. He makes most catches with his hands (similiar to what Eagles receiver Quez Watkins did in college) at the high point. Erik also displays really good ball tracking ability. He is elusive once the ball in his hands and he never goes down easily, utilizing his great balance and body control.
Michael Macon, the senior writer for Viva The Matadors, described Erik. “He’s just a physically dominant receiver. With his combination of height, strength, and speed he’s a matchup nightmare. There aren’t many guys in the NFL even who could take him in a jump ball. He’s got outstanding hands, doesn’t have drop problems, and can reel in the tough catches.”
Do you want a WR with better RAC ability than Treylon Burks, with the same 33.5" arms and a 209-pound frame? Erik Ezukanma is your guy.
Sticking with what I see on this one: A high-level RAC and contested catch threat, with visible upside as a route runner. Severely underrated. pic.twitter.com/2Bl6EiZjpA
Ezukanma has been showing off all of these traits since his days at Timber Creek High School in Ft Worth, Texas. The Fort Worth native had a breakout season his High School Junior year when he hauled in 1447 receiving yds and 20 td’s.
That same year, the Timber Creek High School junior became the only player from the Dallas/Fort Worth area to make the Maxpreps 2016 Junior All-American Team. He was also named Associated Press all state, District 3–6A Offensive MVP and is selected as a part of the Star Telegram super team.
During his Senior year he described where he saw his future heading, as well as some advice to other students.
“In five years, I see myself as a senior in college furthering my education to get my degree, or making my dream come true by making my run in the NFL,” he beamed. “The advice I give (to students) is to put yourself around the right people that will bring you up, not down. Create a brand of yourself, put in a lot of work on and off the field, and last but not least, take advantage of every opportunity you get, because you will never know if you will get it again.”
He finished his High School career with 2,471 receiving yards and 32 touchdowns. “Eazy E” added another dimension to the offense by rushing for 383 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns. A role he continued in college, and will in the NFL.
Following graduation, Erik committed to Texas Tech. In 2018 he appeared in 2 games as a red shirt and scored the first touchdown of his career. A precursor of things to come.
By season’s end in 2019, Erik was the top offensive weapon for the Red Raiders and was a member of the Captains Circle (which speaks volumes to how his teammates regarded him.) Ezukanma became the first receiver since Michael Crabtree in 2007 to lead the Red Raiders in receiving yards as a freshman, 42–664–4.
In 10 games during the 2020 season Erik had 46 catches for 748 yards and 6 td’s. He earned first team All big 12 honors, being recognized as one of best WR in the Big 12 conference.
Last year, 2021, was more of the same production Texas Tech had become accustomed to. He played in 11 games reeling in 48 receptions for 705 yards and 4 td’s. He also continued his versatile play by adding 10 carries for 138 yards and 2 td’s.
During his college career at Texas Tech, the Red Raiders utilized Erik in a variety of ways. The sole purpose was to get the ball into their playmakers hand. If he makes the first man miss, he is usually gone. Using his elusive and quick style of play, Erik lined up on the outside, the slot, and in motion. He was also used on wide receiver screens, as a running back in wildcat formations, and on jet sweeps.
So, you now have a 6'3, 220lb slot/wide versatile in Erik Ezukanma that flexes into the Wildcat here and shows you this kind of acceleration on a 33yd run. pic.twitter.com/qAvvx0li9x
Erik finished his collegiate career as a two time Big 12 honoree with an impressive 138 receptions for 2165 yards and 15 td’s, despite being the focal point for opposing defenses and facing a lot of double teams.
With the 2022 NFL draft approaching, Erik has realized his 2017 premonition mentioned above, and is “making his run” to the NFL just like he stated. He already has patterned his game after two very successful wideouts.
“A guy like Justin Jefferson, I feel like we have a similar body type,” Ezukanma said. “I love the way he runs routes, as well as Keenan Allen. And I want to model my game after those guys because of how they run routes as well as their size.”
Erik also described what he will bringing to whichever NFL team drafts him.
“Every time I touch the ball, I’m looking to score, regardless of where I’m at on the field. At running back, when you get the ball in the backfield, you’re running downhill. At receiver, when I catch a curl or comeback, I’m turning upfield, trying to get contact as soon as I get the ball and trying to score.”
Finishing a career where he had 138 receptions, 2,165 yards and 15 TD's. Will he be the next Wide Receiver in line for @TexasTechFB to be drafted into the NFL??? pic.twitter.com/o7ecnriwO3
— Red Raider Nation (@RedRaiderNation) April 1, 2022
Some scouts have opined that Erik has a similar build as Davante Adams, and that might be what attracted the Packers GM to him at the combine.
Following their team interview with Texas Tech WR Erik Ezukanma; the Packers GM, Brian Gutekunst, stated “We see a lot of similarities to Tee Higgins and could see Erik in that complimentary role to Davante.”
Now that Davante is gone, maybe they see him as his replacement.
One thing is for sure, whoever drafts Ezukanma during this April’s draft is going to get a player dedicated to taking care of their body and craft. Particularly his route running.
“That’s the biggest thing that I’m working on at this moment. I feel like I have all the other intangibles. But you can never get perfect at route running. You can always get better at that, and make sure you have that ability.”
He wants all NFL teams to know that he is ready to contribute.
“Put me anywhere on the field, and I’ll get the job done for you.”
As always, Thank You for reading!
David
Follow me @PHLEagleNews
4/4/2022
Eagles Draft History: The Best Draft Values Since 2000
While there is a lot of focus on the missed 1st round picks recently, the Eagles have had a lot of great picks later in the draft. Here is a look at the best value draft picks by the Eagles since 2000. Not the best players, but the players that have outperformed their draft slot the most. I have used Approximate Value (AV) as a measure here – if you are not familiar with AV, it is the best single metric across all positions to define a player’s value.
The Eagles have had many great players picked in the mid or late rounds, starting with a player that is not only the best Eagles draft value pick, but one of the best across the entire league…
Draft: 2011 R6-191 Career value vs. expected: 86AV vs 8AV expected
Not only the best draft value for the Eagles, but one of the best draft values of any team – since 2000, Kelce is statistically the 8th best draft pick value out of 5,710 draft picks, a 99.9th percentile draft pick.
Not only has Kelce been so good on the field but has done it with longevity and consistency, playing 97% of snaps over his 10 year career, four times playing every snap in a season, and only once (his rookie season) being outside the top 50 in blocking efficiency and seven times being top 20 and three times top 10.
Year
% of Snaps
Blocking Efficiency
Rank
2021
89%
98.4
12
2020
100%
98.3
17
2019
100%
97.4
46
2018
95%
99.2
2
2017
95%
98.3
15
2016
100%
97.7
29
2015
100%
98.6
8
2014
94%
98.4
14
2013
99%
98.8
7
2012
79%
97.4
53
Kelce’s career would have made a first round pick a good value but he was taken at 191 where the average draft pick generates 8AV of value, is a 15th percentile player, and lasts around 4 years in the league with under 1 year starting. To put these numbers in context, the average player taken around Kelce’s draft slot is somebody like DB Jaylen Watkins, LB Andy Studebaker, RB Ryan Moats, and G and ex-fireman Danny Watkins. If you don’t remember half of these players and the other half anger you, that’s the point.
And beyond his play on the field is who he is off the field and what he means to the franchise. Kelce truly has been the conscience of the franchise and is an all-time great Eagle.
Draft: 2002 R3-91 Career value vs. expected: 69AV vs 17AV expected
Westbrook was the best player taken in the Eagles best draft class. A total of 260 career AV came out of the Eagles 2002 draft class, 35 better than the next closest class, with pick after pick being impactful NFL players including Lito Sheppard, Michael Lewis, Sheldon Brown, Raheem Brock, and Westbrook. Westbrook had over 10,000 yards from scrimmage with almost 40% coming in the passing game. Over a 4 year period he was the most important back in the game, averaging 75 receptions, 212 rushes, and almost 1,700 scrimmage yards.
Draft: 2018 R7-233 Career value vs. expected: 11AV vs 6AV expected
Mailata has already doubled expected value from his draft slot and he is only just starting his career. If he has a 10 year career, he projects to have the best value career of any 7th rounder since 2000 – the top five right now are Ryan Fitzpatrick (78 AV), Marques Colston (72), Scott Wells (64), Julian Edelman (61), and Breet Keisel (58). Factoring in positional value, Mailata will be one of the best draft picks ever made.
Draft: 2012 R3-88 Career value vs. expected: 31AV vs 18AV expected
Right around Foles’ pick location, the middle to late round 3 area, is where expectations to draft a starter drops off. QBs always generate more value as measured by AV just because of the importance of the position, but even considering that, Foles has outperformed late 3rd round expectations where the average pick is around 18 career AV. Only 10 QBs since 2000 that have been drafted at pick 88 or later have generated more value than Foles, and Tom Brady is the only other one with a Super Bowl out of that group. Foles’ career in aggregate has been good, but his weakness of being such a boom and bust player is also what makes him so valuable – his playoff run is what brought Philly their only Super Bowl.
Draft: 2005 R5-146 Career value vs. expected: 68AV vs 10AV expected
There’s something about those Cincinnati Bearcats as Cole is the second to make this list (Kelce obviously the other). 90.5 career sacks, second best in Eagles franchise history, and a 12% career pass rush pressure rate, Cole was the 218th best value pick since 2000. Looking to the 2022 draft, I take Kelce and Trent as a mandate that we somehow take somebody from Cincy, whether Sauce or Bryan Cook or whomever. Just take one.
Draft: 2015 R3-84 Career value vs. expected: 40AV vs 18AV expected
Hicks is another whose career story is not done yet. The Eagles saw his high potential but moved on from him before his second contract due to availability concerns, missing 24 games over 4 years. More of his value came after leaving the Eagles, playing in every game and generating half of his total career value in the past 3 years.
Draft: 2013 R7-218 Career value vs. expected: 42AV vs 6AV expected
Poyer, like Hicks, is another where the Eagles made a great pick but let the value accrue elsewhere. Chip Kelly chose Roc Carmichael and Shaun Prater (yeah, exactly, “who?”), who combined for 429 total career snaps, over Poyer on the depth chart who was then released in the offseason. Moved to safety, Poyer has been one of the better safeties in the league, a versatile defender that is exactly the type of safety the Eagles could have used.
Draft: 2005 R4-126 Career value vs. expected: 51AV vs 14AV expected
The Eagles traded 3 picks – a 5th, 6th, and 7th – to move up and take Herremans, a prospect from powerhouse Saginaw Valley State that was not even invited to the Combine (Saginaw only had one other player, WR Jeff Janis drafted since 2000). Primarily a left guard, Herremans played more than 8,500 snaps over 9 seasons for the Eagles, playing 4 positions across the line including filling in for LT Tra Thomas his rookie season. For his career, Herremans had a 96.9% blocking efficiency which would be top 30-40 most years.
Draft: 2009 R2-53 Career value vs. expected: 51AV vs 27AV expected
A 2nd round pick may seem odd on a “best value” list but LeSean was so much better. From my alma mater Pitt, LeSean is the Eagles franchise rushing leader despite being traded away by Chip Kelly after only 6 seasons and playing in a heavier pass era. Of RBs taken since 2000, LeSean is:
2nd in career value for any RB taken at pick 53 or later (behind Frank Gore who accumulated more career AV but had 1,300 more career rushing attempts than LeSean)
His stretch of rushing while with the Eagles was silly as one of only three RBs (Jamaal Charles and Ladanian Tomlinson the other two) with both a positive EPA/rush and a positive Rushing Yards Over Expected (a measure of how many yards a back gained vs. their expected based on game situation). And his 2013 season was one of the better rushing seasons, averaging over 100 yards per game, almost 6 yards per touch, and a silly 0.07 EPA/rush (EPA is almost always negative for rushes because of the increased value of passing in comparison).
Draft: 2016 R7-233 Career value vs. expected: 24AV vs 6AV expected
Mills may be surprising on this list as he was often criticized for his post-drop finger-wagging or repeated double-move burns, but getting a corner in the 7th round is almost impossible. Cornerback is one of the hardest positions to draft, a position that has to be taken high and even then still has a high bust rate. Day 1 and day 2 corners average 25AV through their careers and the Green Goblin is right there with his career still in progress. Of corners taken in the 7th round since 2000, only five – TJ Carrie, Captain Munnerlyn, Cary Williams, Cortland Finnegan, and Mills – have played at least 2,000 snaps at corner and generated 24 or more AV. Of this list, only Cortland Finnegan has had a better career than Mills.
Players to watch:
Besides Mailata, I left off recent draft picks because there isn’t enough history to really judge their value (Mailata has already performed at such a high level for a pick 233 in the draft that you cannot keep him off the list). But of recent draft picks, there are a couple to watch:
Quez Watkins – A R6-200 pick generally has an 8AV career, is an 11th percentile player (a 30th percentile player is a backup – an 11th is an end of roster guy), and a quarter of players taken never even play in a game or make a roster. If he continues having years like his 2021 – 647 yards, 1.51 yards per route run, and the 15th best average depth of target in the league – he will be one of the Eagle’s top draft values.
Josh Sweat– Sweat fell to R4-130 due to concerns on his knee and really broke out in 2021, ending the year with the 3rd highest pass rush win rate among EDGEs and generating 8AV of value in a single season (the average value of players taken around pick 200 is 13AV for their entire careers). Barring injury, Sweat will easily outperform his draft slot by many multiples.
We (David and Greg) decided to do a dueling mock draft. Picks were randomly assigned so you will see each of us having small runs and we decided on no trades although did debate one or two. I have to say this was really fun to do – both to research and think through each of the teams and then wait for (and sometimes get angry at) the picks ahead of you. And, it is interesting how it turned out as it is definitely not chalk picks – there are some surprising falls and some interesting runs on positions.
So, with that, Jacksonville is on the clock…
1: Jacksonville – Aidan Hutchinson, EDGE Michigan
Greg: I wanted to take a WR here because what the heck, get one more after spending a hundred-plus million dollars in two years. But no, this looks all but certain to be Aidan. And why not? He had a silly 25% pass rush win rate and averaged over 5 pressures a game. Jacksonville, 31st against the pass, could use him.
2: Detroit – Kyle Hamilton, Safety, Notre Dame
David: Simply stated, he is the best player in the draft. I do not believe I have ever said that about a safety. Hamilton can do it all on the field. He can stop the run, he can play in the slot, or he can stay in the backfield making game changing plays. He would give the Lions a talent at the position that has rarely been seen. A real life unicorn.
3. Houston – Ahmad Gardner, CB, Cincinnati
Greg: Damn David, you were supposed to take an EDGE, I wanted Hamilton here. Well… Lovie Smith, who will also serve as the Texans DC, said two important things recently: turnovers are a priority and they need to get the fans excited again. Gardner is exactly what is needed… he fits the defense and is dangerous to throw at, nabbing an interception once every 15 targets in his college career… 15… that’s insane. And Sauce is the best on this list to sell stadiums full of jerseys.
My most non-chalk AND favorite pick – absolutely love the fit
4. New York Jets – Kayvon Thibodeaux, EDGE, Oregon
David: The Jets only had 33 sacks last year and desperately need someone who can consistently get after the opposing QB. Their new HC is a former defensive coordinator. This just seems to make sense. Kayvon is a dynamic edge rusher and should be on the field causing havoc from game one.
5. New York Giants – Ikem Ekwonu, OT, NC State
Greg: When new GM Joe Schoen was at the Bills with Brandon Beane, their seven picks in the first two rounds were Josh Allen, a linebacker, and five linemen – it’s not hard to figure out his philosophy. Really boring pick that is expected everywhere but can’t argue with Ekwonu. The Giants OL is 28th in the league in pass block win rate and desperately need to improve.
6. Carolina – Malik Willis, QB, Liberty
David: The Panthers allowed 52 sacks in 2021, and Offensive Tackle is a huge need. There will be plenty of offensive line help available in the 2023 draft to protect Malik. Sam Darnold will probably be a placeholder for much of the upcoming season. Willis has the highest ceiling of all the QB’s in this draft. I really wanted Cross, but you never know when you will draft this high again. If you believe the QB of the future is there, you have to take him. Lance Zierlein compared him to having Jay Cutlers arm and Jalen Hurts build and running ability.
7. New York Giants – Derek Stingley, CB, LSU
Greg: Most people have the Giants going pass rusher here but in new defensive coordinator Don Martindale’s scheme, corners are integral to pressure and will need to defend without help. In what will be a heavy blitzing scheme, Martindale will run near a league high amount of Cover 1 and Cover 0 man (last year only one team ran more man than Martindale’s Ravens). There may not be a better corner in this class than Stingley for what the Giants will try to run.
8. Atlanta – Drake London, WR, USC
David: This will be the first of a run on wide receivers. Whoever ends up being the starting QB in Atlanta (Mariotta), they are going to need someone to throw to. Outside of all world tight end Kyle Pitts, the Falcons are devoid of pass catchers.
9. Seattle – Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State
David: I wanted Mailik Willis for the Seahawks, but without a trade thats isn’t going to happen. Cross is the best pass blocking tackle in the draft. The blindside will be covered for whoever ends up the starting QB in Seattle.
10. New York Jets – Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State
David: Garrett is a great route runner, and offers playmaking ability once the ball is in his hands. Zach Wilson will have a much better chance to prove he should be the long term QB in NY with Garrett at his disposal.
11: Washington – Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State
David: Unless a QB falls to the newly named Washington football team that they are high on, they will getting a weapon for Commander Carson to throw to. Olave is a legit deep threat who also possesses very good route running abilities. McLaurin and Olave will be a dynamic receiving duo. Wentz will have to put up numbers in this offense or risk an early exit from his third team.
12: Minnesota – Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington
Greg: The new Vikings GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah is my type of guy – huge analytics guy, ex-Wall Street. The only person mentioned in this entire article that I love more than Kwesi is Trent McDuffie.
Three reasons this fits for Minnesota: Adofo-Mensah will know the value of positions in the draft and corner will be highly valued… this is the best match of BPA and need as the Vikings desperately need secondary help… and new defensive coordinator Ed Donatelli is another Vic Fangio guy who will want intelligent, athletic, and flexible corners. McDuffie is that guy. I don’t care about the arm length – what is play recognition and athleticism worth compared to literally 0.25 inches of arm length?
We will see in many, many years but I am firmly planted and receiving mail on the “McDuffie may end up having the best CB pro career from this draft” hill. The only reason not to make this pick was to leave McDuffie for my upcoming Eagles pick at 15.
Already too long of a write-up but he’s my guy and one last clip – the thing I love is if you continuously key on him, he “sees” and reacts to the play at a completely different speed than anybody else on the field. I swear he has somebody stealing plays.
Trent McDuffie, Cornerback
– Best tackling corner in the class – Twitchy movement skills that allow him to stay with receivers in man coverage – Sticks with receivers and won't get beat deep
Observation: Greg loves McDuffie as much as I love my dogs.
13: Houston – Travon Walker, EDGE, Georgia
Greg: What the heck is Travon still doing here – I have regrets… Houston is a mess, it’s the team that I think will probably make the most head-scratching choices in the draft as GM Nick Caserio still holds on to too much of the Patriots / Belichick draft philosophy (which hasn’t been good). But it’s a crime that Travon is here, he is crazy athletic which fits what Caserio seeks out and helps Lovie Smith remake the defense.
14: Baltimore – Evan Neal, OT, Alabama
Greg: Man, what a drop of Neal. The Ravens LT retired and their new LT (who isn’t good) asked for a trade. They brought in Morgan Moses in free agency for the right side, which is an underrated move. Here they cannot pass up Neal. They need defensive line help but will get it later.
15: Philadelphia – Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia
Greg: So excited for this pick. I live in Atlanta now and pass this billboard every time I go downtown:
Yes, size does matter Jordan… That he is sun-blocking is one thing, that he is such an athletic freak is just impossible.
A week ago this would not have been a frequently mocked pick here, especially with Jermaine Johnson still on the board (but we will see what David does next), but with the cut and then re-signing of Fletch, the need for DT has been recognized as a bigger need. Gannon wants to pressure with 4 and they have an underrated need to improve the run defense. The biggest issue with this pick is Davis is going to have to pick a different number than 99.
16: Philadelphia – Jermaine Johnson, EDGE, Florida State
David: He climbed more boards, even Jordan Davis’ pictured above, than any other player this mock draft season. He impressed scouts and fans alike at the senior bowl and again at the combine. He is a tough exciting pass rusher the Eagles can pair with Sweat over the next five years. The pick will also relegate a 34 year old Brandon Graham and the newly resigned Derek Barnett to rotational roles. The addition of Haason Reddick coupled with the above edge rushers will give the aenemic pass rush they had in 2021 a huge jolt!
17: LA Chargers – Devonte Wyatt, DT, Georgia
David: With Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack on the edge , why not add another pass disruptor. If you do not double team him, he will create pressure from the interior. If you do, both Bosa and Mack will feast. In a division that is boasting 4 Pro Bowl QB’s, the need to neutralize them is at a premium.
18: New Orleans – Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa
Greg: I had this pick made before Terron Armstead signed with Miami which is how much I like Penning. I also recently mocked him to the Eagles which I don’t think is super likely, but also don’t think is a crazy thought. Like the Eagles, the Saints continue to invest high on both lines every year and a tackle just became even more important to them. Penning is so fun to watch with the nastiness he plays with – there is clip after clip like this:
David: The Eagles went into the offseason looking to acquire an established veteran to help out the receiver room. They did sign head coach favorite, Pascal, who will help with invaluable information regarding teaching there playbook and nuances of the position. BUT they will also need to add another weapon. Treylon Burks is that weapon. He is a huge target and can line up in the slot or on the outside. He should complement both Smith and Quez while also giving Jalen Hurts another weapon to grow with.
20: Pittsburgh – Daxton Hill, S, Michigan
Greg: If you want to understand the Steelers draft philosophy, just do the exact opposite of what Howie or the entire analytics community would do. Since 2013, GM Kevin Colbert’s 1st round picks are five linebackers, a safety, traded another 1st for a safety, a corner, and a running back. You have to go back to 2012 to see any serious investment in the OL, which explains a lot right now.
This pick is one where I am doing what the Steelers would do. Daxton is one of my favorite players in the draft but the Steelers OL is a trash heap that needs a Linderbaum or Kenyon Green. Many have them taking a QB even with the Trubisky signing but Colbert retires right after the draft – I don’t think he will pick a QB for the next GM especially with this draft class and missing out on Malik to Carolina.
My “I will probably regret this pick in April when they actually take a QB” pick
21: New England – Andrew Booth, CB, Clemson
David: With the Patriots losing JC Jackson, it was inevitable that they draft his replacement. Booth has good size and is physical. With the receivers being added in the AFC East over the past 2 seasons, this is one of the easiest picks I’ve made.
22: Green Bay – Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah
Greg: I probably cannot safely enter Wisconsin after failing to take a receiver here but the value is with Lloyd. As part of ARod returning, I am sure there is some commitment to get him weapons, but I am also sure that GM Brian Gutenkunst will stick to whatever is best for the organization. And his results are good – his round 1 picks were CB Jaire Alexander, LB Rashan Gary, CB Eric Stokes, and QB Jordan Love. Even the Love pick, which is widely viewed as a bad pick, has value given the constant uncertainty they have had with Rodgers. There will be time to get a receiver later in this class.
My “I feel like the Joker” pick
23: Arizona – George Karlaftis, EDGE, Purdue
Greg: This is purely best player available and not sure why Karlaftis is still on the board here. Arizona did lose 20% of their total 2021 pressures with Chandler Jones leaving in free agency and Karlaftis will be necessary restocking as Arizona continues to compete with the Rams in the West.
24: Dallas – Kenyon Green, IOL, Texas A&M
David: The Cowboys love drafting linebackers, so Dean could be an option here, but they also need OL help. Green is huge, can play tackle if needed and would give Dallas stability and protection for Dak.
25: Buffalo – Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama
David: Allen has one of the best arms in the league, and Williams is the best deep threat in the draft. Seems like a better pairing than wings and hot sauce.
26: Tennessee – Desmond Ridder, QB, Cincinnati
Greg: BOOM! Finally another quarterback. (Apologies in advance as I will probably write too much here but think this pick deserves added reasoning).
This kinda feels like “Green Bay drafting Jordan Love” or “New England drafting Jimmy G” but Tannehill isn’t Rodgers or Brady. I am not a Tannehill hater – he has way outplayed what most give him credit for. But there are two reasons I am making this pick if I am Tennessee.
First, while I just was complimenting Tannehill, he has also been in one of the most favorable QB situations, facing the highest percentage of stacked boxes in the NFL because of Derrick Henry (passes against stacked boxes generate almost 4x the EPA/play as light boxes). So he is being greatly helped by how teams play against the Titans. But turnovers have been a problem for him. He was 20th in the league in interception rate with 17 picks this year and 28th in the league in turnover-worthy plays (TWP). And this is not new – he has a worse career TWP percentage than Wentz, Baker Mayfield, and Jared Goff. Tannehill for all his good is 2-3 in the playoffs averaging 150 yards/game with 7 TDs and 5 interceptions. Statistically he has had one good playoff game (vs. KC in the 2020 AFC Championship) but if you strip out garbage time, that wasn’t even a good game – almost half of his passing came in the 4th quarter, down 35-17.
Second, this is a unique opportunity to get a QB late in the first. Is this QB class weaker? Yeah, probably. Does it still make sense to take one here? Yes, I think so. The investment is much, much less than a top pick.
Tannehill is only under contract until 2023 and a decision is going to be needed on him soon. He carries a bigger-than-Matt-Ryan dead cap in 2022 but is very movable in 2023. Let Ridder develop for a year behind Tannehill. If Tannehill shines, great, you have a backup or trade Ridder. But if the Titans need a QB which I think they are going to, you have a relatively low cost option here on a QB that has a lot of NFL traits. Take a shot at developing him.
My most “not what they will do but what I would do” pick
27: Tampa Bay – David Ojabo, EDGE, Michigan
Greg: Tampa Bay addressed so many of their needs in free agency with the primary area left being defensive line where they appear to be letting some aging, probably peaked, vets depart. With Brady returning, Tampa’s goal is nothing less than winning the Super Bowl. Ojabo may not be ready until later in the season but given the mess their division will be, they will be more focused on peaking late. Ojabo would have gone in the top half of the round without his injury.
28: Green Bay – Christian Watson, WR, North Dakota State
Greg: Ok settle down Green Bay, we got your receiver. And I went with the big-bodied, downfield, athletic freak. I know, FCS and all, but Watson has a crazy 4.33 yards per route run (1st) and a better YAC/reception than everybody except Jameson and Treylon. He has to clean up drops but I just want to see Rodgers throwing to him.
29: Kansas City – Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida
David: Kaiir is one of my favorite corners in the draft. Might be best suited as a press or zone corner. His stock fell some due to a slight drop off in production his final year at Florida. Will need to be more aggressive against the run, but at only 20 years old, he has a lot of time to develop. This could prove to be a late round steal for Big Red and the Chiefs.
30: Kansas City – Logan Hall, EDGE, Houston
Greg: The Chiefs double up on defense which is what they need to do. The story of their 2021 is Mahomes’ interceptions – if he doesn’t throw one of the two he had in the AFC Championship, they are in the Super Bowl again. But their real need is on defense – they were 23rd against the pass and 20th against the run and with the offensive arms race in the AFC. And they risk losing almost 2,000 snaps on the defensive line in free agency. Hall played inside and outside but most likely will stick on the end. This is very much a pick of need.
My biggest “Reach / Pick Out of Need”
David: I am most impressed that Greg made it through the mock resisting his urge to select Punt God, Jordan Stout. I think he really would consider him as high as round 3.
Greg: Can I still change a pick?
31: Cincinnati – Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa
David: I had to review every name on the list and check it twice to believe Linderbaum was still here. Tyler is the best center in the draft, and can start immediately. He probably should have gone a lot higher. Bengals get a steal here.
The “finally ends the awkward camera shots of this year’s falling player” pick
32: Detroit – Matt Corral, QB, Ole Miss
David: Matt just turned 23, has a strong arm, a quick release and is a dual threat QB. He is much more mobile than Goff, and can extend plays, which is becoming a trait that is more useful in today’s NFL. I do not know why he is falling down boards, but Detroit could do a lot worse than to get a franchise QB with the last pick of the first round.
There are always surprises on which names sneak into the 1st with Logan Hall (Expected Draft Position of 46) and Christian Watson (EDP 45) both finding their way in. And of course this year’s wildcard position – the QBs – had several fall out that could have gone.
Couple of interesting points:
The premium positions all were very close to historical averages for round 1: 5 corners (average is 5.0), 6 receivers (average is 6.4), 4 tackles (average is 4.4), with EDGE standing out with 7 taken average is 4).
Safety stands out with 2 taken where most years none are. The last time a 1st round safety was taken was 2019 when both Jonathan Abram and Darnell Savage went.
Neither of us took a RB and we all push RBs down boards but only twice since 2010 has a RB not been taken in the 1st. Should somebody have taken Breece?
And lastly on the QBs, this draft looks like 2014 which may make sense – both drafts had 3 taken and both had them taken late overall. In 2014, Bortles, Manziel, and Bridgewater went at picks 3, 22, and 32 (with what turned out to be the year’s best QB, Derek Carr, going at the beginning of the 2nd), weirdly similar to where Malik, Ridder, and Corral landed above.
As always thanks for reading.
Potential Surprising Eagles Draft Picks That Should Not Surprise Us
I started this article before the Barnett re-signing which may be putting Philly fully over the edge (no pun intended) on the offseason. This article may have some more relevance now though as it is sort of a preventative mental health post ahead of the draft to ready ourselves.
I wrote recently that the actual draft rarely goes the way the consensus pre-draft mocks look and there are very real scenarios where what we all want doesn’t happen. Edges fly off the board quickly… Howie continues to settle for mid-round corners…value isn’t there on a receiver… the Eagles think they are set at linebacker and safety…
This article will live by the old “better to be a pessimist because you are either right or pleasantly surprised” adage. It builds on the prior post on mock draft accuracy and goes deeper on some options where I forced myself to think of what positions without apparent need could be selected high and why they would make sense. None of these I actually hate… they wouldn’t be what I would do based on need, but every player I list below I absolutely love. They would all make the Eagles better. And hopefully it prepares me for whatever surprises happen on draft weekend when the guys I really want – the Jordan Davis’, Trent McDuffies, Lewis Cines, Dax Hills, Jermaine Johnsons, and Christian Watsons – don’t happen.
Oh, and I’m not getting into a round 1 QB here at all.
A round 1 tackle
I wrote on a tackle here before so will be brief. Would Howie go tackle? Sure, while we will get angry on a pick not matching what we think, none of us would really be surprised. But should they go tackle? It’s not a need, but it is by no means crazy to think they could depending on how the board falls and if Howie has some guys graded high.
Both Lane and Mailata are playing at a high level. Mailata was recently committed to and is young. Lane is under contract until 2025 and really hard to move anytime before 2024 or 2025 even if they wanted to. But injuries happen – Lane has missed 17 games over the last 3 seasons and depth behind Lane and Mailata is marginal. Dillard can’t play RT and then you have Le’Raven Clark and Jack Driscoll.
Using a first on a player that you don’t have a reasonable plan to get on the field is not a good use of capital, but there are players that could still play. I wrote about Trevor Penning previously but will add another name here in Darian Kinnard. Both are tackles that could still hit the field by moving to guard and be positioned longer-term for RT. I don’t love shuffling linemen between positions but it is an option. And many differ on if Penning and Kinnard are tackles or guards in the NFL.
Trevor Penning, everyone. #Jets GM Joe Douglas has spent a lot of time with him today.
Likelihood: I think this is pretty low, it would take a lot of the defensive line, receivers, and corners to be off the board by one of the Eagles picks. But if there isn’t a run on quarterbacks early, in Howie’s eyes the best player available later in the 1st could be a tackle.
RB1 in the second round
I have to catch myself from dismissing drafting running backs anywhere high as I, like so many, think it is generally a bad idea. But would it be crazy for the Eagles to take Breece Hall at 51 if he is sitting there? I am sure they will take some RB depth but I am talking about taking the top RB and first off the board. Reasons this could happen:
Running backs still go high
No matter what we think and how low we all mock RBs, they go surprisingly high year-after-year. Here are the pick locations of the first two running backs drafted since 2010:
I included the first two RBs taken because many will just point to the ridiculously high picks of Ezekiel and Saquon. But even those years, the next RB was taken at picks 27 and 45. The first RB taken has a median pick location of 17. Pick 17! Only twice since 2010 has a running back NOT been taken in the 1st and six times two have been taken in the 1st. The latest that RB1 went off the board in the last 10 years was pick 54 in 2014. And contrary to what most probably believe, this isn’t a “well, that was years ago when teams valued RBs higher”… the draft capital allocated to the top 5 RBs has barely changed over the past 10 years.
Sirianni is connected to Iowa State
Sirianni’s college teammate, Matt Campbell, is the current Iowa State head coach. Maybe a past connection is overthinking it, but we know Nick and the Eagles love guys they have some connection to (Nick’s coaching staff, Anthony Harris, this entire offseason, etc.) And the Eagles have already been connected at the Combine and pro days to two Iowa State draft prospects this year: Breece Hall and Charlie Kolar (more on Kolar shortly).
But what about Miles and Gainwell?
But what about Miles? Sanders has missed 4 games each of the last two seasons and while nobody knows what Howie will do, I highly doubt Sanders gets a second contract. If Breece Hall falls to them, do they trade Sanders in the summer for a late pick and save another $1.2M on the cap?
And what about Gainwell? He probably isn’t an every down back and if Miles is moved, Gainwell keeps his role. But he is much more of a pass catcher and could play a bigger role there – in 2021, he had 50 pass targets vs. 69 rush attempts. And it wasn’t just passes-that-were-really-runs out of the backfield – Gainwell lined up in the slot or out wide 20% of the time.
Breece could be the BPA
Breece Hall has a current expected draft position around 40 and if, for some reason, he is available at or near 51, he would almost definitely be the best player available. Howie has repeated that they will draft the best players on their board and he is not averse to taking a RB – Miles Sanders was at pick 53 just a few years ago. Hall is a big, every down back that can catch and the Eagles were, whether by choice or necessity, a running team last year.
This is one of my favorite clips from Matt Alkire on Breece. Plenty of big and flashy run clips out there, this isn’t one of them but it makes me think “what would Miles have done here? Would he have bounced outside to the left and turned it into nothing?”
Not a big gain, but love the run and talk a bit about why Breece Hall has been RB1 the whole process for me. pic.twitter.com/Cn6gUiCjbZ
Likelihood: This would be in the “not high but higher than most think” category. It would take some stars aligning – I don’t think Hall will make it to 51 and I doubt the Eagles move up for a RB, but if RBs fell this year and the Eagles find themselves with a pick in a location of value, I could see it.
A day 2 tight end
Again a position that is not viewed as a need with Goedert, Stoll, and Tyree Jackson but the Eagles still run one of the highest rates of 12 (25%) and 13 personnel (10%) in the league. While that alone doesn’t mean they will continue to or should, they have had success in multi-tight end sets with the second best successful play rate in the NFL behind the Chiefs. They were very run-heavy out of multiple TE groupings, especially after week 6 when Ertz was traded, running 70% of the time, also 2nd highest in the league.
Tyree has all the potential in the world but is still unproven and I wonder how much he will even see the field this year after his ACL tear. Stoll is a guy. Would the Eagles take a tight end somewhere on day 2? Maybe. I’ll give two options:
Trey McBride – TE1 in the class with an all-around game and near the top of every statistical category
2nd with 2.78 a Y/RR and 2nd against man coverage with a 2.64 Y/RR
Top rated blocking TE prospect with over 1,100 blocking snaps in college career
5.0 YAC/reception which is in the neighborhood of players like Drake London, Jahan Dotson, and Skyy Moore this year
I wasn’t going to post a blocking clip but he is incredibly impressive blocking and takes it seriously as a part of his game. But there is clip after clip of him hauling balls in like this:
Turns out the Summer All Hollywood Team is running a lot of 12 personnel because I love Colorado State TE Trey McBride’s film.
— Dante Collinelli (@DanteCollinelli) July 1, 2021
Charlie Kolar – one of “my guys” and somebody I have mocked several times, not as high on TE boards but I believe will draft a lot higher than expected:
4th with a 2.08 Y/RR but led college TEs with a 3.36 Y/RR vs. man coverage
Highly athletic, ranking 24th out of 965 TEs since 1987
63 receptions this year were most by a Power 5 TE since 2017
2.9% career drop rate
Led TE prospects with a 66.7% contested catch rate
34.5″ arms, only two tackles in 2021 had longer arms
Of all the clips I posted, this is my favorite and most relevant to the Eagles and it isn’t even a clip of Kolar playing. Watch this story of Kolar playing pickleball with Coach Campbell and tell me this is not 100%, absolutely a lock Nick Sirianni guy. And, Kolar is an ex-basketball player that played with Trae Young in high school – I just wonder what the Nick / Charlie pre-Combine meeting basketball games were like.
Charlie Kolar + pickleball = my favorite story Matt Campbell has ever told during a press conference. (H/T to question-asker @J_SchaefferWOI) pic.twitter.com/BD301yn6hV
Likelihood: A round 2 TE I think would be pretty low likelihood but a R3-4 pick I think has a much higher chance than most give it. We always think wide receiver when we hear Howie say they want to surround Hurts with weapons, but TE is an important position to them and they get two on the field. Like Breece Hall above, Kolar has the Iowa State / Sirianni connection.
And I’ll just share this from anonymous ex-Eagles scout / potential Howie burner account @TheHonestNFL (joking on the burner account comment):
Kolar is a legitimate target for the Eagles. Really interesting prospect. Him and Trey McBride are names I hear a lot of. Expanding their 12-personnel package is a focus this offseason. https://t.co/xcM9Y4TukN
I want to state again before people hate all of the above, this is not what I am recommending, I would prioritize high the same positions others are looking at – defensive line, corner, wide receiver, safety. I’m just putting out some picks that maybe shouldn’t surprise us. And these are not “bad” picks, just picks that are not priority needs. They are all really good players. Tackle and to a lesser degree tight end are premium positions (but tight end is increasing recently as shown by free agency prices) that you can defend investing on in the draft.
If you forced me to pick at least 1 or 2 of the above, I would mock something like this with Breece Hall in the 2nd and Charlie Kolar in the 3rd:
R1-15: EDGE George Karlaftis
R1-16 Traded to Buffalo for R1-25, R3-89, 2023 2nd – BUF takes WR Treylon Burks
R1-19: S Daxton Hill R1-25: WR Christian Watson R2-51: RB Breece Hall R3-83: CB Cam Taylor-Britt R3-89: TE Charlie Kolar
The Eagles walk away with a monster edge, a versatile safety that does exactly what they want and can play all over, a top zone corner, the draft’s best running back, a big, freak athlete at receiver, and a big, fast, tight end that would be an absolute weapon.
The Enigma, Philadelphia Eagles WR Jalen Reagor
It has been 2 long seasons, and I hate calling any 23 year old player a bust after a couple years, but 88 catches, 929 yards and a measly 4 touchdowns in two years are pretty anemic numbers. After the initial excitement during the summer leading into the season the Head Coach stated “I think he’s had a heck of a training camp.” That same coaching staff now has questioned his desire to play through an ankle injury. The guys in the locker room never mention him. The fans are ready to run him out of town. Davante Adams is just no longer wanted in Green Bay.
Yes, those are real reports and stats for one of the most dynamic receivers in the league over his first 2 years.
One Green Bay article read “Fans pounded their fists, angry that the second-round pick didn’t step up when Jordy Nelson missed all of last season. As we know, Adams completely flopped in his 2nd season. A low ankle sprain forced him to miss 3 full games, but that doesn’t excuse the horribly inefficient season he had replacing Jordy Nelson.”
Harsh criticism for a future number one receiver.
My how times have changed.
I want to be clear, I am in NO way comparing Davante Adams to Jalen Reagor.
(Nicholson: Are we clear? Cruise: Yes Sir. Nicholson: ARE WE CLEAR? Cruise: Crystal)
Sorry for the Few Good Men reference.
All I am saying is, you never know.
He may surprise everyone. Some team may believe in him more than anyone realizes and trade for him. Nobody knows. Below are some things we do know.
Look at the numbers after 2 seasons:
Reagor 64, 695, 3
Adams 88, 929, 4
Devante’s 3rd year in the league, 2016, is when he finally turned it on with 75 receptions, 997 yards, and a 12 TD campaign.
So can Jalen turn things around in his third season to even be a 3rd or 4th WR option in the Eagles 2022 offense? We would first need to know what went wrong with Reagor last year and how to fix it.
For starters, he failed a conditioning test upon his arrival to training camp. (Dallas Goedert failed the conditioning test as well, but it went largley under reported) Reagor also wasn’t in the right place emotionally. Jalen was dealing with the recent murder of a close childhood friend, which understandably “weighed heavily” and contributed to his not being ready.
But this is the NFL, and each individual is responsible for themselves and must be accountable. 52 other men who line up on the field are counting on you. Ownership, coaches, fans, and stadium workers are all counting on you too. To be fair to Jalen, I have never heard or read that he has used any of these excuses for his shortcomings.
In a previous era and time his struggles would have been seen as unacceptable, and he would have been viewed as weak. But this is 2022, mental health and depression are now at the forefront of our consciousness. Acceptance for those suffering from emotional and psychological issues has been slow, but it has progressed by leaps and bounds compared to where it was 20 years ago. Especially in the NFL. Make no mistake, it is still not where it should be.
In hindsight, Reagor probably should have taken some time to heal. If you dispute that notion, make sure you have deleted all of your receipts on the timeline begging the Eagles to acquire Calvin Ridley. Ridley was a player most every fan (and the Eagles) were excited about getting, until he was suspended for gambling. Ridley took the entire 2021 season off to get his mental health under control. It isn’t fair to accept that from a star player who is already successful and established but not from a second year player trying to make a leap during their second season.
Reagor started off 2021 in the wrong head space, and seemingly never recovered. As much as he frustrated everyone with his play, I have to admit, I admired that he constantly wanted the ball. He struggled mightily, but his desire to contribute as a receiver or a returner never wavered.
Towards the end of the season I opined that the Eagles needed to save him from himself. He was going to continue to field punts, run routes and struggle doing it all until he was taken off the field. He was fighting, but it just wasn’t ending in positive results. It is hard for me not to root for anyone who has the type of fight in them that he displayed. He wanted to succeed badly, but at the end of the day this is a results based business. His results were not good enough.
2022 is a make or break year for Reagor. He needs to come into camp with a purpose, a clear mind, and a body that is in the rhetorical “best shape of his life”. He needs to show everyone that he wants it as bad as everyone else wants it for him. Then he needs to take it!
Reagor may never come close to Devante Adams. I only mentioned it as an example of why teams are reluctant to move on from players that could potentially develop later, rather than sooner. It is risky business to move on from a player that you have under control for 5 seasons, after two years. Due to cap implications, it is not financially sound. In addition, it is not beneifical in the teams efforts to develop athletes. Not every player will produce within the same time frame. All athletes are not created equal. Some need more time than others to mature. Others may need more coaching, more experience, more whatever.
Nobody should question somebody’s mental state. At some point, much like with Ben Simmons, it gets to a place where nobody wants to hear about it anymore. Jalen Reagor is at that point. To some of you he is past that point.
That being said, the Eagles (or whatever team Reagor plays for) do not owe him anything. He will have to earn his playing time, and then he will have to produce in order to keep it.
Reagor hasn’t performed how Howie and the Eagles envisioned, but that doesn’t mean he won’t ever be an asset for the team. A productive, mentally sound and physically healthy Jalen Reagor would be what’s in everyone’s best interest.
I am hoping 2022 can be his year. I am wishing him health and rooting for him in whatever he role he plays on the team.
David
As always, thank you for reading.
Follow me @PHLEagleNews
3/25/2022
Top Eagles Free Agent WR Targets: What the Data Says
Just a quick post on some remaining free agent wide receiver targets for the Eagles as I was looking at some of the deeper data on the top names being thrown around.
Below are the top names still being discussed (not every WR out there). I included deeper production stats like yards per route run (YRR), separation rate, and DVOA. Also, the far right column is a rough projection on the yards that WR would have had just replacing Reagor’s 486 routes run and keeping their YRR (which does vary throughout a career but is more stable than you would think).
My guys:
We all would have liked some of the bigger names out there but, to me, most of them were not worth their contracts – see my free agent valuation post yesterday for more detail “Positional Value, Free Agency, and the Draft”.
But some good receivers still left and a pick-your-style-you-want with some deep threats, slot guys, versatile, big, small. For me, some thoughts:
Zach Pascal will clearly be a target given his history with Sirianni.
Cross off the older, injured guys, especially with drops – Will Fuller, Sammy Watkins, and AJ Green to a lesser degree.
Scratch off Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who I see a lot of people wanting – I don’t like his drop rate and my preference would not be somebody that is primarily a deep threat.
Keelan Cole, Landry, and Jamison Crowder are my top three. Cole is pretty versatile and sneakily one of the better WRs in DVOA last year. Crowder is a pure slot upgrade, good hands. Landry I am guessing stays in Cleveland but would be another really good option that is versatile.
Positional Value, Free Agency, and the Draft
The free agency period raises 90% of my annoyances with football. No matter how much history shows playing in the mid-range of the free agent market has the best outcomes and that the high-end, especially aging players on multi-year deals, more often than not results in regret and future cap issues, fans always want the top-end, big names. If you are somebody that wanted Howie to sign Allen Robinson AND Marcus Williams AND J.C. Jackson AND Chandler Jones AND Bobby Wagner AND Myles Jack and frequently tweets “lol the cap isn’t real”, maybe click away now…
If you are still here, I’ll give a quick view on the cap and if you believe in the cap, skip ahead a paragraph. The simplest analogy for the “cap isn’t real” people is saying “my take-home pay isn’t real.” Sure, I can make my take-home pay irrelevant this month and next month by buying things on credit. But my overall financial situation becomes very real soon enough. Pushing player money into the future is buying on credit. A team – if they aren’t in an already bad cap situation (dead cap) – can make the cap “not real” this year, maybe next but it all comes due at some point. It could/would make sense for teams that think they are close to winning a championship (the Chargers this year)… it will ultimately turn out to be a huge regret for teams that aren’t close (Jacksonville paying way above market this year).
The cost and value of positions in free agency
But the point of this article is to look at what different positions cost in free agency and the relative value of each (and how teams should think about free agency vs. the draft).
First a look at what free agents cost in each position group. The first table is the average annual cost (AAV) for the top 5 free agents at each position from 2019 to 2021. The second table is the same but is for the top 10 free agents by position.
Couple of points:
Ignore the QB data – starters rarely hit free agency so these numbers are almost always backups. But some starters do hit – Brady and Rivers in 2020 for example – which swing these averages greatly. I almost left QBs off but here they are.
The most expensive positions in free agency are the premium positions – pass catchers, pass rushers, pass defenders, and tackles. OLB is separated from LBs above because OLBs are pass rushers (Haason Reddick, Bud Dupree, and Za’Darius Smith).
At the bottom of free agency cost are positions like running back, linebacker, defensive tackle, and safety (more on safety later as this could be changing) that have been de-valued recently.
Now, a look at the cost of different tiers of free agents (top 5 by AAV, the 6-10 free agents by AAV, 11-15, and so on) by position. Also included is the current state of the top 5 free agents at each position so far in 2022.
Note that the 2022 free agent class is still in progress so average cost of free agents isn’t useful yet. But we can use the cost of the top 5 – the cost of the top 5 2022 free agents cannot go down from here. If other FAs are signed at higher AAVs, it will only increase the 2022 numbers above. For that reason, ignore the positions that are dropping in value – the full picture isn’t known yet. But the positions that have increased in value is important.
Top-end wide receivers are up over 16% in 2022 from the past 3 year average and OLB pass rushers are up over 50%. Safeties and interior OL are both up a lot as well. Corners and DTs are up a little.
Some of this is the because of better players hitting the market but it nowhere near tells the entire story. This next view shows for each position the quality of free agents in each tier measured by Approximate Value (AV). If you aren’t familiar with AV, it is a metric from Pro Football Reference that is the best single value metric for players – it measure every player’s impact on scoring and is highly correlated with team wins, player performance, EPA, and almost any other metric that measures success. The nice thing with AV is it is a number that every position has (unlike EPA).
Costs for the top pass-rushing OLBs is up over 56% in 2022 and the OLBs that have signed this year are “better” – in 2022, OLBs have an average AV of 8.24 vs. 7.33 in the 2019-2021 period. But this does not explain the rise in prices totally – when you compare player quality (AV) to cost, teams were “paying” 1.28M per AV the last 3 years but in 2022, they are willing to “pay” 1.66M per AV. This means 29% (the far right column) of the rise in OLB free agent costs in 2022 is teams just paying more.
The other interesting one is receiver and one that we all are familiar with. The top 2022 WR free agents are being paid 16% more in 2022 but the quality of these receivers as measured by AV is actually down this year. Teams are hugely bidding up WR prices this year, almost doubling (up 76%), much more than the quality of WRs can explain. And we all can see this – Jacksonville WAY exceeded the market signing Christian Kirk ($2.4M per AV) and Zay Jones ($3.4M per AV). Allen Robinson is also almost double his value ($2.0M per AV). All five of the top WRs signed exceeded historical averages. If these receivers really take a step up in performance, than they grow into their value but it is a big leap to think these receivers, especially the older ones, will perform that much better.
Tight ends stick out here as well – a smaller sample size but they have been bid up in recent years while the quality has also been questionable. New England inexplicably WAY overpaid for Jonnu Smith ($5.4M/AV) and Hunter Henry ($3.8M/AV) last year… Jacksonville signing Tyler Eifert ($2.9M/AV) and Cleveland signing Austin Hooper ($2.3M/AV) in 2020… every one of these is a bad deal.
And lastly, safeties. Safety has historically been de-prioritized from a contract perspective – remember the first chart had safety as the 3rd lowest paid position on average and one that has decreased recently. But 2022 so far has been huge for safeties – the average pay for the top 5 signed in 2022 so far is up 34% with several expected high priced free agents still remaining. And when you compare it to the quality of free agents this year, the cost normalized to player value is up 59% and will go up more once the remaining free agents sign.
Maybe safety is an anomaly this year and will revert back to a lower paid position. But I believe the Staley / Fangio / Eberflus defenses (which includes Gannon’s) taking over the league may be driving a re-look at the value of safety and what is needed. Teams are playing more two-high and split-field safeties that have deep responsibility but expected to be able to come in against the run. Kansas City and the Jets both play a lot of two-high and signed safeties much above market. Baltimore signed Marcus Williams, the top safety available this year, and play a lot of Cover 1, but value his coverage and ball skills.
Thoughts on the Eagles initial free agent moves
The general feeling on the Eagles free agent moves so far is somewhere between disappointment and anger. I am less negative than most as I thought the big names were neither realistic nor smart moves, but share some of the concern. They must come away with a receiver and they will – most of the big names I shake my head at but Robert Woods (trade, not free agent, but same thing) would have been nice. Some thoughts:
Pass rusher: Haason Reddick was a favorite of many and obviously the big move the Eagles have made so far. Reddick valued at at $2.0M/AV, slightly below the average of the top 5. Given his age and what he brings, this is an amazing signing – not only for who he is, but the relative value.
Wide receiver: I still would like Jarvis Landry, Jamison Crowder, or Keelan Cole. All have good hands and would (should, but who knows this year) be affordable. Everybody is focused on a big receiver (which would be nice but there aren’t a ton of them) but the Eagles could really use a slot receiver. They just need another good option that can take some focus away from DeVonta and Goedert. They should invest here again in the draft.
Safety: I am ok with Anthony Harris coming back on a one-year but Marcus Williams (at the right price) would have been nice. I still think somebody like Deshon Elliott or Jaquiski Tartt is needed. A lot want Tyran but ignore that he had back-to-back down years and is honestly about the same right now as McLeod or Harris. And a lot have Terrell Edmunds and Jayron Kearse on their wishlists but both are really box safeties and not what I think the Eagles are looking for. I would invest very high in the draft here – I would absolutely go after Daxton Hill or Lewis Cine.
Linebacker: They are affordable in free agency and the Eagles should bring depth in, although I think they are more positive on TJ Edwards and Davion. Kyzir White and Josey Jewell are two I like.
Defensive Tackle: Fletch is a more complicated discussion. On the restructured deal the Eagles are paying him $14M a year or $2.0M/AV vs. $1.5M/AV as the average for the top five DTs this year. Is he overpaid? Yes. If you consider him a top 10 free agent, his contract should be in the $8-9M / year range. But remember, Fletch had a $25M dead cap hit so the way to think about it is would you rather pay $14M for a 7AV Fletch or $25M for nothing? I thought Tim Settle who signed with Buffalo for 2 years, $9M would have been a great addition but maybe the Eagles didn’t look at him or he wanted to go to Buffalo. Monday I posted what I thought was a non-chalk mock for the Eagles where I went with Devonte Wyatt in the first (and no EDGE) and within an hour, the news hit on Fletch, making a draft like that much more likely.
Cornerback: I am not sure what the Eagles plan is here but think they believe in Zech more than we all think. I thought Rasul Douglas would be an interesting return as he fits Gannon’s scheme much better, but also thought it would probably be an overpay because of his year last year. Nelson could still make sense. Mike Hughes is a zone corner that tackles well and would fit. Xavier Rhodes and Mike Alford are both old, but could be a stop-gap. But again, they need to draft here.
What does this mean for free agency and the draft?
The premium positions are really hard to get in free agency and when you do, teams pay up significantly for them. Stating the obvious but pass rushers, corners, receivers, tackles (and quarterbacks) should be continually invested in via the draft.
Below shows the average AV for each position by draft round. As context on AV, top players will be in the 6-8 range (which is where the top 5 free agents are) with truly elite players even higher – the very top elite players will be 10-12 or higher. Any AVs in the 2-3 range are really replacement level players – it really shows that getting any starters in the third round or later is tough.
The premium positions are at the top and outlined in red. Average AV for these positions is often in the 4 range which reflects players that bust in top rounds, but if you want good corners, pass rushers, tackles, and receivers, (1) it is unsustainable and too expensive to continually use free agency to acquire them and (2) you better draft them high.
Again, this isn’t revolutionary but teams don’t always follow this and fans wanting to spend on every free agent misses the long-term implications. Howie is mostly right on positional value except for cornerback and we see the results – over the last 10 years we have either had to pay in free agency/trade (Slay) or continued to bring in a long list of hopeful stopgaps.
Don’t get annoyed when we don’t sign every big-name free agent. The Eagles actually have the 3rd highest average free agent ranking (the average slotting of free agents) while being best in the league in pay vs. value. What they are doing is right philosophically. Do they get every move right? No. Are there players they miss on? Yep. Do they need to add more this year? Absolutely, and they will. But the Eagles do what is shown to have the best value.
