When you look at the best individual performances of Eagles draft picks, there are several that stand out:
Donovan McNabb, 2002 week 11 vs. Arizona – Breaking his ankle on the 3rd play of the game, McNabb stays in and goes 20/25/255 with 4 touchdowns and a 0.237 EPA/play.
Brian Dawkins, 2002 week 4 vs. Houston – Dawkins famous “Quadrafecta” game where he became the only player to ever record a sack, forced fumble, interception, and a touchdown catch in a single game.
Brian Westbrook, 2006 week 7 vs. Tampa Bay – Westbrook has over 100 yards rushing and receiving, just the 25th time that happened in the NFL. The Eagles gave up a game-winning 62 yard field goal as time expires to lose 23-21, but Westbrook generates a silly 15.9 cumulative EPA and 0.800 EPA/play.
Eric Allen, 1993 season – Allen, the Eagles best cornerback and David’s favorite Eagle, caught six interceptions in 1993, with four of them being returned for touchdowns including his 94-yard return against the Jets which has been called the greatest interception return ever. Prior to advanced tracking data, Allen’s career doesn’t have targeted passing rates but he was one of the best corners in the league and what the Eagles have not had often – a player that just couldn’t be thrown at.
But the best performance of any draft pick has to be Nick Foles in the 2017 playoffs.
Nick Foles’ 2017 playoff run
In my last draft history post, I looked at the 10 best draft values for the Eagles since 2000 and Foles was #4 on the list. Because of the position, quarterbacks always rank high on value metrics but the reason Foles is on the list is because of how incredibly good he was in spurts. There may not be another QB who was so up and down through their career, but Foles’ “ups” are some of the best in quarterback history and what brought a Super Bowl to Philly.
Foles has three games that could actually win “best Eagles draft pick performance” with three 99th percentile quarterback games:
2013 Week 9 vs. Oakland
Stat line: 22/28/406, 7 TDs / 0 Ints, 1.286 EPA/play, 22.2% CPOE
Foles’ famous game where he had more touchdowns (7) than incompletions (6). While it’s hard to say something is more impressive than that, his absolutely silly 1.28 EPA per play and 22.2% completion percentage over expected (CPOE) is. He attacked deep all day, with 10 explosive plays including three completions that went over 30 air yards – a 36 yard touchdown to DeSean, a 47 yard touchdown to Riley Cooper, and another 59 yard pass to DeSean. His EPA/play ranks as the 14th best quarterback EPA out of 11,670 QB games since 2000 and his CPOE ranks 60th.
If you have 4 minutes, you can re-watch his passes here – it really is a beautiful thing to watch Nick play when he knows whatever he does will work:
Nick Foles’s 7 Touchdown Game vs. Oakland
2013 Week 16 vs. Chicago
Stat line: 21/25/230, 2 TD / 0 Ints, 0.470 EPA/play, 24.6% CPOE
Nowhere near as gaudy of a performance as the Oakland game, but one of the most efficient QB games played. His 24.6% CPOE is the 26th best CPOE game since 2000. Up 33-11 in the 3rd quarter, Foles’ last pass attempt of the game came with over 5 minutes left in the third.
2017 NFC Championship game vs. Minnesota
Stat line: 26/33/352, 3 TD / 0 Ints, 0.786 EPA/play, 20.5% CPOE
Foles again was at his best but this time on a big stage:
Against the #1 rated defense: The above games were both regular season games against mediocre (Oakland) or bad (Chicago) defenses, but this game was against the number one overall rated defense and second best passing defense in the NFL by DVOA. We forget how good that Minnesota defense was because the game got out of hand quickly – for the season, the Vikings allowed an average -0.120 EPA per dropback – in the last 10 years only two other teams have equaled that mark.
The best conference championship or Super Bowl passing game: Across all playoff games, Foles had the 16th best EPA/play and 3rd best CPOE game. Out of championship or Super Bowl games only, this is the number one rated passing game by EPA+CPOE composite score by a good margin. The only game even close to this game is Matt Ryan‘s Super Bowl loss to New England.
Deep passing: Foles had an insane 35.8% CPOE and 2.29 EPA/play on passes over 20 yards, going 4/6 for 172 yards and 2 touchdowns with a 39.3 average depth of throw on deep targets. His 13.8 cumulative EPA on deep passing is 5th best in any playoff game and the top conference championship or Super Bowl performance.
If you have 4 minutes, you can re-watch every one of his throws here. He was efficient, accurate, and attacking. And re-watching it, he had another 50 yard pass that could / should have been caught early in the game.
Foles’ 2017 Postseason
And when you string together Foles’ three 2017 postseason games against Atlanta, Minnesota, and New England, he had the single best postseason performance of any QB. In the 2017 playoffs, Foles averaged a 0.555 EPA per play and a 10.9% CPOE in the postseason. Below shows all playoff QB performances since 2000 with Foles’ 2017 having the best composite ranking.
Not Brady, not Rodgers, not Brees, no other QB strung together a better 3+ postseason game stretch than Foles. Here are the next best QB postseason performances:
- Matt Ryan, 2016: 0.690 EPA/play and an 8.36 CPOE, losing in the Super Bowl in their devastating loss after being up 28-3.
- Aaron Rodgers, 2010: 0.420 EPA/play and a 7.13 CPOE giving Rodgers his only Super Bowl.
- Drew Brees, 2009: 0.393 EPA/play and a 6.71 CPOE in his Super Bowl win.
- Tom Brady, 2011: 0.327 EPA/play and a 6.32 CPOE in one of his few Super Bowl losses to the Giants.
At the time, I thought the Eagles were a team where things were just going right and that they would have won with Carson. But when you look at what Foles did, how Foles playing at a level better than any quarterback over at least the past twenty years and how every bit of that was needed to win, my opinion changed. Foles didn’t have the best career but he had the best string of games at the most important point in Eagles history.
Prior Eagles Draft History Posts: