“You know what, after I got traded I placed myself on the Eagles on Madden, and I started playing as myself and I just started visualizing, and you know I’m really excited.” Read more
The following are 5 Eagles players with a current ADP lower than their expected return on your round investment. These players could propel you towards hoisting your fantasy league trophy in 2022. Read more
The following list includes the all-time points leader in franchise history, a player who had a major motion picture made about their journey, and the heroics of a local kid turned Super Bowl winner. Read more
“You can describe me like a 70 Chevelle, old school. I’m one of the guys that, I’m a big guy, fast guy, explosive, you know, hard to bring down” Read more
With the rise of the Fangio two-high defense, the safety position is being re-thought. Long a low paid position, the top end of the market is accelerating and more teams are investing in free agency and the draft. How should we feel about the Eagles who have left the position untouched to date? Read more
With the Eagles drafting Jordan Davis, I took a look at nose tackles and their value in modern defenses, why they are being sought out nd increasingly paid, and how they impact the game. Read more
My prioritized list of draft targets for the Eagles including who I would trade up for, who I would prioritize at 15 & 18, targets between our 18 and 51 picks, and the remaining rounds. Read more
Possible suitors include trading up from pick 15 with the Panthers, Jets or Seahawks, and or trading down from 18th with the Green Bay Packers. Other options are on the table as well. Read more
The 2002 draft was by far the Eagles best draft since 2000 with five long-term starters coming out of the draft. And, it is famously known as the draft where the Eagles doubled up (actually tripled up) on secondary. Where could they double up this year? Read more
Eagles WR AJ Brown, Brotherly Love Has Always Been at His Core
Some athletes who come to Philadelphia have found it to be a difficult transition, whereas others have fit like a glove from day one.
A.J. Brown is in the latter category. He has immersed himself into the community, stood up for his teammates, and even bought jerseys for some fans at a local sports shop.
His dedication to the sport he loves is only surpassed by the joy and energy he brings to the team day in and out. And he has proven that since the day he arrived.
“I want them to know I’m a hard worker, I’m a team guy, not a me guy”
His teammates, coaches, and fans have acknowledged his dedication and embraced him in a short time, as few athletes have been before him.
But, like most everyone else, he has had his share of challenges in life.
AJ is as outspoken and sincere in sharing the hardships as he is relishing in his triumphs.
His journey to becoming a Philadelphia Eagle was sometimes challenging, but he has persevered and been willing to share his struggle in the hopes of helping others.
Brotherly love has always been at his core.
Path to the NFL:
Brown attended Starkville High School in Mississippi, where he played both baseball and football. His work ethic was legendary starting at a very young age, and he credits his family with the way he was raised for developing those disciplines.
“From my parents, both parents, my mom, and my dad. They work extremely hard”
The hard work and relentless attention to detail paid off. Playing football as a senior at Starkville High, AJ had 83 receptions for 1371 yards and 13 touchdowns. He’d also lead his team to a state championship. His play earned him first-team all-state by the USA today.
As I mentioned earlier, he also played baseball. And played it well.
“I was a really good hitter, I had a good bat.”
The Padres agreed. During the 2016 MLB draft, AJ was drafted by San Diego to play as an outfielder. He signed with the Padres which excluded him from playing college baseball. But he was still eligible to play football at the collegiate level.
AJ stated that choosing football came down to a pretty simple reason.
“Scoring touchdowns man, you know. I’d rather score a TD than hit an HR”
And he hasn’t stopped scoring since.
A.J. Brown Starkville High School
Ole Miss and Tennessee:
Mississippi State fans bemoaned AJ’s choice of playing at Ole Miss, which is 2 hours away, rather than playing for his hometown college, but AJ had his reasons.
“It was kinda too close (to home) and the coach didn’t really recruit me,” Brown said. “He just expected I was going to come.”
While Mississippi St. may have expected him to sign, other programs were not as confident and tried to buy his services.
“The night before signing day, I got a knock on the door, bag full of money in the front. Swear to God. They kinda tried to leave and we like, ‘Nah, we good, bro. We don’t need this.’ I swear.”
Ole Miss and their fans were happy he chose them.
Brown wasted little time showing what he could do. As a freshman, AJ opened a lot of eyes playing in 11 games and scoring two touchdowns. Years two and three brought even more production.
He ended his collegiate career after his junior year with 189 receptions for 2984 yards and 19 TDS.
His resume’ and reputation paved the way for him to be a highly coveted receiver for NFL teams in need when Brown declared for the draft.
Mississippi St wide receiver A.J. Brown (1) is being defended by current Eagle teammate, and then LSU Tiger cornerback, Kary Vincent Jr.
Brown was selected by the Tennessee Titans in the second round of the 2019 draft with the 51st overall pick.
AJ immediately established himself as the Titan’s top receiving playmaker. His statistics during his first three seasons in the NFL have mirrored that of his college stats, but with even more touchdowns.
Brown reeled in 185 receptions for 2995 yards (an impressive 16.2 yards per catch average) and 24 touchdowns.
Despite being very productive and a fan favorite in Tennessee, his time there was coming to an end due to an impasse in contract negotiations.
Brown stated“I just wanted my work to be appreciated”
Once it became known in league circles that AJ would be available via trade, Eagles GM Howie Roseman was salivating for a chance to acquire him.
He would eventually get his chance.
Mental Health:
From an outsider looking in, things seemed to be going great. AJ Brown is one of the best young receivers in the game, making money, and well-liked, but inside AJ Brown was missing something and hurting. The pain was almost becoming more than he could bear. In November of 2020, Brown stated that he thought about taking his own life.
“I had no more hope for better days and everything was just going wrong for me,”
On November 12, 2021, AJ went public regarding his thoughts of taking his own life in a very open Tik Tok post that he shared with the world. It was on the first anniversary of his
“I just wanted to put out a positive message that I’m still here. I’m still growing. I’m still learning. I’m blessed. I’ve got a lot of things to be grateful for and someone was there for me. So reach out to your loved ones and ask them how they’re doing and listen to them, you know, because it’s important.”
#Titans WR A.J. Brown with a powerful message on his Instagram and TikTok about depression, mental health and self-harm…you never know what someone is going through on the inside. Good on him for this 🙏🏼 pic.twitter.com/1uiy6Wlicx
It took courage and bravery to come out but AJ knew the importance of sharing.
“Be there for someone because someone was there for me. God told him all the right things to say to me that night. Take depression seriously. Take how you feel and how you handle situations seriously. Life happens to all of us but you’re not too tough to talk to someone and get things off your chest. Life is a beautiful thing and everyone should be able to live it to the fullest.”
A year after going public with his struggle, AJ looks back with pride and optimism.
“I felt like I made an impact, in helping people out. So many people reached out and that made me feel really proud of myself for speaking up. I am in a great place now. I have someone I speak to every other week. to keep it fresh, and it’s important.”
Philadelphia Eagle:
Draft night 2022, Howie and the Eagles finally landed their guy.
The Eagles traded one of their 2022 first-round picks (number 18)and one of their two third-round picks (number 101) to the Tennessee Titans during the 2022 NFL draft, for A.J. Brown. AJ then immediately signed an extension with the Eagles that added 4 years 100 million dollars with 57 million guaranteed.
The Eagle’s general manager, Howie Roseman, described the team’s desire to acquire Brown.
“Was it a priority to get a wide receiver? It was a priority to get the right players. This for us was the right player, this was the right fit. I can’t tell you we were going to definitely draft a receiver in the first round. We had some other players that we were looking at here. I think we felt like this particular player, this particular person, the fit was really good for what we had and what we were looking for.”
AJ Brown seems to agree with the excitement and his role for the upcoming season with the birds.
“You know what, after I got traded I placed myself on the Eagles on Madden, and I started playing as myself and I just started visualizing, and you know I’m really excited.”
His legendary work ethic I mentioned earlier, is alive and well in Philly too. He participated in voluntary practices when he arrived and keeps that same mentality he learned from his parents as a child.
“The preparation before the season pushing myself past exhaustion, each offseason, training like a pro, thinking like a pro, just being a student”
The Eagles GM, Coaches, players, and fans are excited to see what he brings to the team as well!
“I get to play with my best friend. It’s going to be real special”
Standing up for his QB regarding a report about he believed to be false.
It’s important because he’s the quarterback of my team, number one, and he’s my friend, number two. And the story wasn’t true.”
That practice stuff about Jalen is fake . Y’all tweet and believe anything. Like how can he get sacked on 7on7 and there aren’t any rushers. I believe water is above us . Believe that too and make a article about that too . This app is crazy 😂
Brown made a surprise appearance, back in February, at Starkville High School as part of the school’s Leadership Day, and more recently hosted a 7-on-7 camp at his alma mater, gifting the football program $25,000.
AJ has been a welcome addition. He’s received love and shown brotherly love back with his thoughts and actions. He also has a burning desire to show more.
“I definitely feel the love. Ever since I’ve been here, Philly seems to be showing me, love. I appreciate it wholeheartedly. Now it’s my job to do what I do and have fun and play some football”
Brown shares a sentiment that seems to be a common theme amongst all of the new players. Their desire to be accountable.
There isn’t a city in the country that will appreciate that work ethic more than Philadelphia, and I can’t think of a better team to help bring awareness to depression and mental health.
And AJ wants to make sure that message and awareness continues.
“I just want to encourage everyone to protect your mental, talk to someone, get things off your chest, do things that make you happy. It’s so important. I didn’t think depression was real until it happened to me, but now I know it’s really real. Guys, just talk to someone, get things off your chest, and take depression seriously.”
The Eagles have become known as a safe landing spot for players with the challenge of battling mental health issues. And the Eagles and Brown will continue with, brotherly love.
“You need to look out for one another,” Brown said. “I know we play this beautiful game, but you know, life is beautiful.”
Indeed it is.
If you or someone you know is in immediate crisis, call the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline at 1–800–273–8255 for 24/7 access to a trained counselor. You can also contact the Crisis Text Line by texting “HOME” to 741741. For more information about ongoing support and mental health resources, contact HelpLine at the National Alliance on Mental Illness by calling 1–800–950-NAMI (6264) or emailing info@nami.org.
As always, Thank You for reading!
Follow me @PHLEagleNews
David
7–30–22
The Philadelphia Eagles Have an Impressive Young Core
The Eagles have overhauled their roster from one of the oldest to one with an exciting group of talented young players. Most of these players are under contract for 2 or more seasons.
As impressive, is the fact that 10 of the projected offensive starters are all homegrown draft picks. AJ Brown is the only outlier.
This is quite a turnaround from a roster devoid of young talent just 2 short seasons ago.
Eagles general manager Howie Roseman has done a really good job of signing their young core guys to team-friendly extensions. Coupled with the last two drafts, the roster is looking to be one of the more promising during his regime.
The 2021 NFL draft class included selecting DeVonta Smith and Landon Dickerson in rounds one and two. After one season, the early returns seem to promise, and the draft has been one of the more universally liked from the beginning. The team seemingly focused more on drafting athletes who had played for winners at the college level (two national champions) and were highly respected, including team captains. A strategy Howie and the Eagles stuck with for the 2022 draft.
While the 2021 draft was universally liked, 2022 was invariably loved. The Eagles selected 2 players from the National Champion Georgia Bulldogs defense. Jordan Davis and Captain Nakobe Dean. The theme of building through the lines while selecting winners, champions, and Captains, was again at the forefront of their decision-making. Once you include the trade to acquire Tennessee WR AJ Brown for picks 18 and 101, the haul seems to be a home run.
The Eagles seem to have the beginnings of a very good, long-term, nucleus in place. They are also still positioned with 2 first-round picks in the 2023 draft.
5 Philadelphia Eagles To Procure On Your Fantasy Rosters
The NFL season is always a grind and having healthy players goes a long way to winning that coveted title in fantasy, as it does in real life. Having players providing a value higher than their average draft position does as well.
The following are 5 Eagles players with a current ADP lower than their expected return on your round investment. These players could propel you towards hoisting your fantasy league trophy in 2022.
AJ missed 5 games last year and still ended the season with 63 receptions on 105 targets for 869 yards and 5 touchdowns.
A change of scenery, coupled with the Eagle’s focus to upgrade the passing game, should enable Brown to have an uptick in production. He should also be utilized in the red zone more in Philadelphia than he was with the Titans.
His current ADP is averaging between the 28–35th overall player selected, and the 12th wideout being taken off the board.
Last season DeVonta finished as the 30th overall receiver in point-per-reception formats. The Eagles adding number one receiver AJ Brown doesn’t seem to lead one to believe his numbers will increase, but I think otherwise.
Smith is currently being drafted between the 80th and 85th overall player selected. This makes him a mid-thirties receiver. I would expect more than that and more points than he had last year. His targets shouldn’t decrease with the arrival of Brown (those will be at the expense of Reagor and others) and not having to face every team’s number one DB should lead to more production.
Dallas may not get the number of targets needed to be a top-tier fantasy tight end (newcomer AJ Brown should get over 100)but the game plan should still allow for an average of 6–7 a week. He is currently being drafted 79th overall which is 8th overall for tight ends. He could surpass that, especially if he exceeds the number of projected targets due to an injury, etc.
The fan base might be divided as to the outcome they expect from Jalen Hurts this season, but fantasy owners should enjoy the doubters causing his lower value on draft boards.
His current ADP is in the late to mid-sixties, while being the 7–10th ranked fantasy QB heading into the season. The rushing yards and touchdowns will always be a part of his game, and the passing game should increase this season with the addition of WR1 AJ Brown.
Gainwell’s current ADP is 142, as the 48th running back that’s been drafted overall. If healthy, he should deliver a much larger value than a projected RB3. If Miles Sanders fights injuries as he did in 2021, or doesn’t score a touchdown all season again, Gainwell could become a very valuable member of your fantasy roster. He comes into the season as a BIG sleeper, with potential starter upside.
Projected Fantasy Value
94 Rushes 482 yards and 6 TDs
37 Receptions 433 yards and 2 TDs
As always, Thank you for reading
7/23/22
Follow me @PHLEagleNews
Top 10 Undrafted Free Agents in Eagles History
To say the Eagles have had success signing UDFA would be an understamentet. The following list includes the all-time points leader in franchise history, a player who had a major motion picture made about their journey, and the heroics of a local kid turned Super Bowl winner.
Most positions can be debated as to who is the greatest of all time. No such debate exists for who the greatest kicker in Eagles history is.
The pride of Louisville holds the Eagles franchise record for points with 1,323. He was also voted to five Pro Bowls and named a kicker on the NFL’s All-Decade Team for the 2000s.
Akers is 13th in NFL history with 1,721.
David was also tough. In 2005, he pulled his hamstring on the opening kickoff against Oakland. He fell to the ground in obvious pain, and no one expected to see him again for a while. But, in the final minute of the game, he limped back onto the field when he was needed and kicked the game-winning field goal. If he hadn’t done so already, he earned the respect of his teammates, and the fans, for his grit and determination that afternoon.
“I never want anyone to think I’m trying to wimp out,”
Akers is the first, and only, kicker inducted into the Philadelphia Eagles Hall of Fame.
2-Herman Edwards:
Herman joined the Eagles in 1977 as an undrafted rookie out of San Diego State. By opening day, he had earned his role as the starter. Edwards started every game (135) during his nine-year career as the starting cornerback. Herman had 33 regular-season interceptions and added 5 more during the postseason.
Edwards was a member of the 1980 Super Bowl team, but he will always be remembered for his game-winning fumble recovery that he returned for a touchdown in the famous “Miracle at the Meadowlands” in 1978.
The Eagles signed Brown and invited him to training camp for the 1981 season.
A surprise to make the team, Greg ended up playing in Philadelphia for six seasons (1981–86). During a dominant 4 year span between the 1983 and 86 seasons, Greg had 46.5 sacks, including his career-high 16 in 1984.
Brown finished his career as an Eagle with 50.5 sacks, which ranks sixth in team history.
Brown’s 16 sacks during that 1984 season are tied with James Harrison as most in NFL history by an undrafted player.
Chad currently holds the record for most catches by an undrafted player in Eagles history. Lewis hauled in 228 receptions for 2349 yards and 23 touchdowns during the regular season. That record may stand for some time. Those numbers were also enough to earn Lewis 3 consecutive pro bowl seasons.
Chad also showed up when it mattered the most. He reeled in 38 post-season catches for 409 yards and 3 touchdowns. His last post-season catch as an Eagle was during the NFC championship game in January 2005 versus the Atlanta Falcons. Lewis caught his second touchdown of the game in the fourth quarter, which essentially sealed the win and punched the Eagle’s ticket into their first Super Bowl since the 1980 season. Unfortunately, he suffered a Lisfranc injury during the play. He still celebrated from the ground, but he knew he was injured. He only had 5 more receptions in his career.
Chad celebrating his 2nd TD in NFC Championship Game
Waters made the Eagles in 1984 as an undrafted kick returner out of Cheney State. By 1986 he had secured his role as a starting safety, which he kept through the 1993 season.
During his ten-year career with Philadelphia, he had 15 interceptions, 3 forced fumbles, and 910 tackles. He played with a violence that made him a favorite with the fans, and a nightmare for opposing offenses. Opposing players went over the middle with extreme caution and the knowledge that Andre was lurking to land a vicious hit.
Andre was named to the 1991 all-pro team and also holds the record for most games played in Eagles history by a UDFA. The Eagle’s “Gang Green” defense he was a part of is still remembered as one of the best in NFL history.
Waters died in 2006 due to suicide. A study of his brain revealed that he suffered from CTE. Andre and the condition he suffered from got worldwide recognition when the Will Smith movie, Concussion, was released. The findings from Andre Waters played a large role in acknowledging CTE as a serious danger and risk for players at all levels of the sport.
Hollis is one of the most fun-loving and out-spoken characters in Eagles history. Thomas arrived in Philadelphia in 1996 and spent the first 10 of his 14 NFL seasons with the Birds, starting 95 games. Which is second-most by an undrafted defensive player in Eagles history behind Andre Waters.
As a five-year starter, Thomas had 13.5 sacks during his Eagles career but is best known as a premier run-stopper with 316 tackles.
Hollis made a game-changing red zone sack in the 2004 NFC championship game right before halftime that Andy Reid attributed to being one of the biggest stops in the game.
“I didn’t know how big that play actually was until Coach (Reid) told me. Because if they had scored a touchdown there, the game’s a little different going into halftime. I felt like that was one of my biggest plays.”
7- Quinten Mikell
Signed as a UDFA in 2003, Quinten spent four years exclusively as a special teams player. A role he excelled in. Mikell was voted the special teams MVP in both 2005 and 2006 by his teammates.
Quentin took over the starting safety job in 2007 and kept it through the 2010 season. While playing the position, he was a 2x second team all-pro and a 2009 Pro Bowler.
Mikell also was a member of the Super Bowl 39 team where he played behind Michael Lewis and Brian Dawkins. When Brian Dawkins left after the 2008 season, Quentin became one of the most vocal team leaders.
Jamaal was an undrafted free agent out of Delaware State. Jackson spent his first season with the team on the practice squad but was called to duty when starting center Hank Fraley (also undrafted) was injured midway through the 2005 season. Jamaal took over the position and kept the job through 2009.
Jackson started 72 games for the Eagles and earned Sports Illustrated all-pro honors in 2006.
Ken signed with the Eagles as an undrafted player in 1978 and carved out a 14-year career, 10 with Philadelphia. He became a full-time starter in 1982 and amassed 32.5 sacks during his time in Philly, including a career-high 10.5 sacks in 1984
Clarke proved himself to be a very durable player and missed just four games during his 10 seasons in Philadelphia. He currently holds the 13th spot on the all-time Eagles sack list.
If not for a guy you may have heard of, Nick Foles, winning the most valuable player award in Super Bowl 52, Corey Clement was more than likely next in line for that prestigious award. Those Super Bowl heroics alone, are enough for him to be on this list.
Corey reeled in 4 catches totaling 100 yards and scored a touchdown on an amazing catch during the biggest game in Eagles history. For a local guy to play on the team he grew up rooting for and end up being one of the most valuable for the team, in that game, is an amazing feat.
Without his remarkable play, the Eagles may not win their first championship and have that celebration down Broad street.
While compiling this list I came across so many players worthy of mentioning, that I felt compelled to add 2 more in their own categories.
Most famous undrafted Eagle of all time- Vince Papale:
Perhaps the most famous UDFA of all time. When you get a movie made about you starring Mark Wahlberg, you make the list. His improbable achievement of making the squad is as legendary in Philadelphia as another beloved underdog, Rocky Balboa.
In 1976, then Eagles head coach, Dick Vermeil announced he would hold open tryouts in an attempt to improve the roster.
A local Interboro High School teacher by the name of Vince Papale decided to give it his best shot.
“I was a season ticket holder and I’d sit in the stands and go, ‘You know, I could do this given the chance.’ I never thought I’d get the chance and darned if I didn’t. Thank God that Dick Vermeil gave me the opportunity and I was in perfect position as a school teacher at Interboro High School. I took a leave of absence and they said, ‘Go chase it.’ I chased it.”
Not only did he chase it, but he also made it. A player found right off the street who never played college football lasted 3 seasons with the Birds as a special teams player, he also was named a member of the Eagles’ 75th-anniversary team.
Not in my top ten due to having played decades before I was born, but I’d be remiss to not mention him. Bucko signed with the Eagles as an undrafted free agent during the 1943 season, which was the year the Eagles and Steelers merged to form the “Steagles”
Kilroy was both an offensive and defensive lineman for the Eagles and even with his double duty, he only missed one game during his career. Bucko was named to 3 pro bowls and was also a member of the 1940s all-decade team.
Bucko was also a member of the Eagles’ 1948 and 1949 championship teams.
Will Devon Allen, Britain Covey, or anyone else from the 2022 undrafted free agent class ever make the list?
As this exercise has proven, you never know when or where the talent is going to rise from.
As always, Thank you for reading!
David
Follow me @PHLEagleNews
7/17/22
The Eagle’s New Alpha, WR AJ Brown
“You can describe me like a 70 Chevelle, old school. I’m one of the guys that, I’m a big guy, fast guy, explosive, you know, hard to bring down”
A.J. Brown doesn’t mind telling you exactly what he thinks of himself, and Philadelphia fans are going to love it. The 2022 Eagles are going to have an Alpha in the wide receiver room this year!
Not another first-round pick that will be projected to do well. An actual NFL talent who has already proven he can make plays in the league. A true bonafide number one receiver.
AJ Brown might be the best wideout in Philadelphia since Terrell Owens. One big difference is that this time the Brotherly love between receiver and quarterback is sincere!
Brown spoke about playing with Hurts
“It’s real special. We have messed around on the field on our own time, but this time it’s gonna be for real”
His Athleticism:
AJ uses his 226 lb, 6 foot one frame not only to body people to make himself open but also to bully defenders to get extra yards.
When asked how much he loves “throwing dudes” while on the field
“It’s the beauty of it, its the beauty of it, my mindset when I get the ball don’t let nobody tackle me. It’s all about that YAC”
Power isn’t the only attribute he exploits DBs with, he also uses his hands and feet. AJ has a very quick-footed release while simultaneously hand-checking to create more separation. He also is blessed with great balance which is very visible on tape while he is running his routes.
His skill set seems to be a match made in Heaven with Philly’s RPO-heavy offense. The Eagles QB, Jalen Hurts, will also benefit from having Brown on three-step drop passes via the quick reads and timing routes. AJ can get open quickly, and that skill set will be utilized often.
How the offense will improve:
AJ joined the team and started participating in voluntary practices immediately.
“I want them to know I’m a hard worker, I’m a team guy, not a me guy”
His legendary work ethic is contagious, and he will prove to be a great example to his teammates. He attacks the offseason with a relentless hunger.
“The preparation before the season pushing myself past exhaustion, each offseason, training like a pro, thinking like a pro, just being a student”
Brown is physical. He gets a quick release and will be open over the middle more often than not. With Brown occupying one side of the offense and DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert on the other, defenses will be forced to pick their poison.
RPOs, timing routes, and play action, all should improve with the threat of AJ. The Eagles will be able to attack defenses on every level.
How will the Eagles and DeVonta benefit:
During the 2021 season, Smith amassed an above-average target rate but below-average yards per route.
In contrast, AJ lead the league in targets while facing press coverage and had the most yards per route against that same coverage.
Brown will be expected to do more of that while playing up on the line of scrimmage. Smith should be able to put up bigger numbers while facing a lot more off-coverage defenses and allowing him to get a cleaner release and create more separation.
DeVonta was also a lot more successful in creating explosive plays when he was able to get free off the line of scrimmage. Smitty lined up out wide on 877 of his 1003 snaps last season. He played from the slot in 97 of them. The addition of Brown should allow for a lot more of DeVonta from the slot alignment. Having Smith move around will benefit him and the offense.
Smith struggled some against press coverage, AJ does not. The matchups that Smith will face playing alongside Brown should allow for a lot more success in the Eagle’s overall passing game.
Brotherly Love:
Jalen and AJ appear to be very excited to play with one another.
The offensive skill position players have already been practicing together. All of them have stated they are bonding, learning, and having a lot of fun while doing so. The sky is the limit for the offense this upcoming season.
As always, thank you for reading!
Follow me at @PHLEagleNews
David
6/26/22
Philadelphia Eagles Pre-Season 53 Man Roster Projection
Jalen Reagor could be dealt if a team loses a receiver in camp. The Eagles have been searching for a returner for a long time. Covey could fill that role, and land a roster spot despite not contributing to the offense.
The final spot at corner will be quite a competition. Josh Jobe, Josh Blackwell, and Kary Vincent Jr. are all highly thought of and the Eagles may go with 7 CBs to keep one on the active roster while hoping the other 2 make it to the PS.
The Eagles will likely bring in another punter to push Siposs.
Let me know your thoughts!
As always, thank you for reading.
David
6/17/22
Follow me @PHLEagleNews
The Butterfly Effect; How Losing to Washington & Trading Wentz Reshaped The Eagles
Butterfly Effect- The idea that small changes may have large effects. A phenomenon whereby a minute localized change in a complex system can have large effects elsewhere.
How the 2022 Philadelphia Eagles ended up with DeVonta Smith, A.J. Brown, Jordan Davis, Kyron Johnson, a 2023 first-round pick, and a 2024 second-round pick is quite remarkable.
The Eagles entered the offseason with three first-round picks: 15 (from the Dolphins), 16 (from the Colts in the Wentz deal), and 19 (their own). There were plenty of assets for Roseman to facilitate a trade if he wanted to acquire a star player or get future draft capital for 2023 and beyond. He somehow managed to do it all.
When the Eagles lost to the WFT ending their 2020 season, it brought two things into focus for the 2021 season. Who the playoff teams would be heading into the wild card weekend, and more importantly for Philadelphia, where they would be drafted in April. Which would be pick 6, the good kind.
Not to mention, trading Carson Wentz freed up 100+ million that afforded the Eagles to sign A.J. Brown, Reddick, Bradberry, etc. Ah, the joys of a QB on a rookie contract.
So how did Howie and the Eagles get it all done?
Losing to Washington:
Now that the 2022 draft results are in the books, here is what the Eagles net from that WFT game they lost
Losing gave the Eagles pick 6, instead of dropping 3 spots down to 9.
Que Jimmy Hendrix, if 6 was 9.
Eagles trade pick 6 to Dolphins, to receive pick 12 and a 2022 first-round pick. (which turned into pick 15)
With pick 12 in the 2021 NFL Draft, the Eagles trade up with Dallas to pick 10 and select DeVonta Smith.
The Eagles trade picks 15 (from Dolphins) and other late-round picks, to Texans for pick 13.
With pick 13 the Eagles selected Jordan Davis.
There’s your reason if anyone ever wondered why a team could willingly lose a meaningless game.
The Eagle’s loss also affected 2 other teams. The NY Giants were eliminated from playoff contention and the WFT end as the 4th seed, hosting the Tampa Bay Bucs in the wild card round.
When Doug Pederson pulled Jalen Hurts for Nate Sudfeld in the fourth quarter, many NY Giants players (and their head coach) openly questioned the decision on social media.
But did the Eagles truly lose on purpose? Did they tank?
After being pulled, Jalen Hurts looked to be perplexed by the decision as well.
“I knew Nate’s worked hard all year, I think he’s a great player and Coach wanted to give him an opportunity at some point in the game. Me being a competitor, I talk about winning all the time, and that’s what I’m all about. I trust Coach with it. That’s all I can do.”
Even though then Eagles head coach Doug Pederson had decided that Sudfeld would play during the second half before the game (some players knew, as well as the media who were calling the televised game) a lot of people disagreed with his choice.
Some questioned whether Doug had been instructed by upper management to pull Hurts in an attempt to lose the game, but he ended that speculation after the game.
“That was my decision solely. Nate has obviously been here for four years, and I felt he deserved an opportunity to get some snaps.”
Not to mention, Hurts struggled all night in the passing game. In his 3 quarters of play, he threw for 72 yards with 7 completions on 20 attempts, and an interception. He wasn’t exactly throwing the ball around the yard that night. His value in that game was coming from his legs. He had run for 2 scores and 34 yards.
Whatever side you are on, (they lost on purpose or they didn’t) doesn’t matter anymore. I take Doug at his word in regards to rewarding Sudfeld with playing time.
That same weekend the Packers didn’t start Aaron Rodgers. The win or loss would not have affected their playoff status, but it did for other teams. The Pittsburgh Steelers gave Ben Roethlisberger the day off for a game they started with a chance to earn the AFC’s #2 playoff seed and perhaps knock a division rival out of the playoffs. Again, this wasn’t reported or discussed either. No problem. Nobody said much about either. They rarely do.
Why? Because these things happen all the time, especially in Week 17 of the NFL season. Many teams do not play their starters in these meaningless games because it can’t change their playoff seed, it’s not worth risking injury to star players, or (as Doug Pederson did) they reward players who busted their asses all year.
Not playing your starters and tanking isn’t the same thing. The players on the field try to win, suggesting otherwise is disingenuous. I don’t think you could say anyone on the Eagles tried to lose the game. The players on the field were putting forth their best efforts, it just wasn’t enough.
Trading Carson Wentz:
The Eagles traded Carson Wentz to the Indianapolis Colts for a 2021 third-round pick (84) and a conditional pick in 2022 that would either be Colt’s first-rounder or second-round pick dependent on if Wentz played over 70% of Indianapolis’ snaps in 2021. He did, and that resulted in the Eagles netting Colt’s first-round pick (16)
1. Eagles traded picks 15, 124, 162, and 166 to the Texans for pick 13. With pick 15, the Eagles drafted Jordan Davis.
Roseman used his extra Day 3 picks to move up a few spots and draft Jordan Davis to man the middle of the Eagles’ defensive line.
2. Eagles traded picks 18 and 101 to the Titans for AJ Brown.
Howie used both 2022 picks he acquired from the Saints to trade for AJ Brown.
3. The Eagles use their pick, 51, to select Cam Jurgens.
4. The Eagles use their pick, 83, to select Nakobe Dean.
5. Eagles traded picks 188 and 237 to the Lions for pick 181. With that pick, the Eagles selected LB Kyron Johnson.
6. Eagles traded pick 154 to the Jaguars for picks 188 and 198 (Selected Grant Calcaterra with pick 198)
Conclusion:
Howie Roseman deserves a lot of credit for re-shaping the Eagles and opening a window to win in 2022.
The Eagles still have two first-round draft picks in 2023 and two second-round draft picks in 2024. A pretty amazing collection of resources is still at their disposal considering everything they have already accomplished.
Those future picks from the Saints could eventually make the Eagles a Super Bowl contender, especially if they are not needed to draft another QB in the first round.
The winds of change from the butterfly effect Doug Pederson created in January of 2021 will continue to be felt for years to come.
The Safety Position Is Increasing In Value (and How Should We Feel About the Eagles?)
Earlier in the offseason I looked at the trends in positional value in the post “Positional Value, Free Agency, and the Draft” and wanted to dig into safety a bit more as the position is rising in importance.
The top end of the safety market is one of the fastest increasing position groups
Historically safety has always been one of the lowest paid positions and has stayed fairly static at around 7% of total cap for the position. And in 2022, safety still ranks 8th in average pay ahead of only running back, interior offensive line, linerbacker, tight ends, and specialists.
But if you look at the top end of the market, safety is one of the fastest accelerating position in pay. The average salary across all positions has increased 33% between 2015 and 2022 but when looking at the top 5 at each position, average safety pay increased 85% in the same period, ranking 4th behind only pass rushers, defensive tackles, and linebackers. For the top 10 at each position, safety is 5th at a 75% increase.
Top 5 Cap Hit
Top 5 2015-2022 Growth
Top 10 Cap Hit
Top 10 2015-2022 Growth
DT
$21,7M
123%
$17.3M
108%
LB
$15.9M
102%
$12.4M
77%
OLB
$22.4M
100%
$18.0M
94%
S
$15.5M
85%
$13.1M
75%
OT
$19.2M
79%
$17.9M
85%
QB
$33.1M
65%
$28.7M
58%
TE
$12.5M
43%
$11.0M
47%
CB
$19.1M
41%
$16.2M
36%
G
$10.5M
41%
$9.1M
31%
RB
$13.1M
30%
$9.8M
27%
WR
$18.4M
26%
$16.0M
31%
C
$11.3M
12%
$9.7M
25%
DE
$17.4M
8%
$15.3M
24%
If you look at free agency, the top end of the safety market is accelerating even faster. So far in 2022, the top 10 safeties have signed contacts with a total AAV of $83.9M, up 85% from 2021 alone. Free agency signing data is less stable year-to-year because of the quality of free agents available. But while 2022 has had some very good safeties hit the market like Marcus Williams, Tyrann Mathieu, DeShon Elliott, and D.J. Reed, this year’s safety class is only slightly higher quality than past years (using Approximate Value, 2022’s top 10 safeties averaged 6.01 AV vs. an average AV of 5.93 over the past 5 years). Quality comes nowhere near explaining the increase in what the top safeties are being paid.
And the impact of safeties on the game today is rising. In PFF’s listing of wins above replacement (WAR) by position (“Using Pro-Adjusted Wins Above Average to examine positional value in the NFL Draft“), safety is third on the list behind quarterback and cornerback and right ahead of wide receiver. The 2020 season was the first time that the average across the league was over 50% of snaps where defenses lined up with middle of the field open looks and two high safeties and this is driving the change.
This year’s draft class was the best safety class since 2018
Coupled with the free agency boom, 2022 also saw the best safety draft class since 2018. After back-to-back years without a 1st round safety, three went this year with Kyle Hamilton to Baltimore, Daxton Hill to Cincinnati, and Lewis Cine to Minnesota. And six more were taken on day 2 with the Colts, Chargers, Lions, Bears, Texans, and Chiefs also taking safeties.
Cincinnati may be hedging against losing Jessie Bates but got a versatile safety that can play all over. Minnesota already has Harrison Smith, one of the league’s best safeties, but will be moving to much more two-high safety in 2022 and brought in my favorite safety in the draft. And Baltimore, after signing Marcus Williams in free agency, took Kyle Hamilton at pick 14.
Like all positions, quality players are drafted earlier in the draft. The below shows all safeties drafted from 2015-2021 and their player value (average AV per year) by their draft location. Generally, AV values around 6 are good starters – for context, Rodney McLeod averaged 6AV in his time with the Eagles, Tyrann Mathieu has been around 8AV, and Marcus Williams has been around 6AV.
Since 2015, only 2 out of 77 safeties drafted after the 3rd round hit an AV of 6 or higher (DeShon Elliott and Jordan Fuller) with 2 others close (Kamren Curl and Jordan Whitehead). With 9 safeties taken in the first three rounds this year, teams are banking on getting an impact safety.
Every team is investing in safety either through the draft or free agency
When looking at teams’ investment in the safety position on both 2022 salary cap and 2019-2022 draft capital, most teams are doing one or the other. Below shows each team’s percentage of cap allocated to safeties in 2022 on the Y-axis and the draft capital used on safeties over the past four drafts on the X-axis (draft capital is calculated using expected AV by each draft slot).
As a quick look at the two-high safety teams, they have generally been at the top of the league in either drafting or paying safeties.
Broncos – Although Fangio is now gone from Denver, they are left with Justin Simmons, one of the league’s best safeties, and Kareem Jackson. Over the past 3 years, the Broncos have spent the 2nd most in the league on safeties, nearing 12% of the cap.
Rams – Despite their perpetual lack of high draft picks, the Rams have used the 4th most draft capital on safeties with four safeties drafted over the past four year – in 2019 they took 2nd rounder Taylor Rapp and 7th rounder Nick Scott and in 2020 6th rounder Jordan Fuller and 3rd rounder Terrell Burgess.
Bears – They are 4th in the league in salary cap used on safeties and just drafted Jaquan Brisker in the 2nd round this year.
Chargers – The Chargers are 5th in the league in draft capital used and have 1st round star Derwin James on the last year of his rookie deal.
Vikings – 7th in the league in draft capital used, this year they added to Harrison Smith, one of the league’s better safeties, when they drafted Lewis Cine in the 1st after taking Camryn Bynum in the 4th last year.
Packers – The Packers are the one team that is not above league average on spend or draft capital with Adrian Amos and 2019 1st rounder Darnell Savage.
And looking more broadly at the league, the same holds true with teams getting their safeties one way or another and either falling in the top left (spending above average) or bottom right (drafting above average).
Only a handful of teams are materially below averages on both cap space and draft capital used – Houston, Carolina, Dallas, and Philly.
Carolina – The Panthers are in better shape than their placement shows as they still have Jeremy Chinn on his rookie contract and signed Xavier Woods to a 3 year, $15M free agency contract with only $2.8M of that hitting the 2022 cap.
Houston – The Texans lost Justin Reid to the Chiefs in one of the big safety free agency signings this offseason (3-year, $31.5M). To replace their safety hole, they took Jalen Pitre at R2-37 in this year’s draft.
Dallas – Like Carolina, Dallas is in a bit better position than they appear hear. While they haven’t invested in the draft at all (they have not used above a 6th round pick on a safety since 2016), they picked up a cheap and young Jayron Kearse from Baltimore last offseason and just extended him to a 2-year, $10M deal with only $3.7M hitting in 2022.
Which brings us to the Eagles…
Their safety group is thin and not proven. Anthony Harris was brought back on a 1-year and it made all the sense in the world to bring back him or Rodney McLeod. At the other safety spot, it will be Marcus Epps, who played well in just over 500 snaps last season, and K’Von Wallace, a 2020 4th rounder and the highest safety taken by Howie since Jaylen Watkins in 2014. K’Von has flashed at times but just wasn’t on the field enough last season due to injury.
The issue is how proven the group is. It can absolutely be upgraded and the Eagles need to invest here, but there is some room for optimism. Below shows safeties with their run and coverage grades for the 2021 season – Epps in over 500 snaps showed a lot, grading above average against the pass and run.
It is obviously a passing league but one thing I like to look at is how effective a safety is against the run from depth as this is what is increasingly being asked of deep safeties. A safety’s ability to generate run stops, defined as a when a defender makes a tackle that causes a failure for the offense, is highly dependent on how often they align near the line of scrimmage – the more a safety is in the box, the more run stops they will have. Below shows run stop percentage vs. the percentage of time a safety aligns deep – it is an obvious and strong correlation. None of the Eagles safeties really stand out here as they are all around the trendline.
But if you adjust a safety’s run stop rate by the amount of time they align deep, you get a better view of which safeties are able to impact the run game based on their opportunities. Here, Epps and K’Von (although K’Von has a small sample size with only 183 snaps last year) both really stand out – they both played deep at such a high percentage of time and despite that, were able to generate a high rate of run stops.
Below are three clips of Epps that show his ability to cover from deep, both in the passing and run game. In the first clip, he covers J.D. McKissic crossing from a single-high alignment and comes away with an interception when he meets the ball at contact. The second clip he again closes from single-high for a run stop when the defensive line and linebackers were all sealed off with the exception of Eric Wilson who slips and falls. And the third clip where he again closes quickly from single-high to make a run stop after T.J. Edwards misses a tackle.
And the snaps he got last year, Epps did this fairly consistently:
Of safeties with at least 20 targets, Epps is 11th in the league with only 3.5 YAC/reception allowed and 14th in the league with a 14% forced incompletion rate
8th in the league with a 4.0% missed tackle rate
11 stops on 537 snaps despite aligning deep 61% of the time
Looking ahead
The Eagles reportedly were looking in free agency to make a move at safety as they were in play for both Marcus Williams and Tyrann Mathieu but were outbid on both. While most Eagles fans were upset here, they were right to not go too high or too long on these deals. Marcus Williams is young and very good and if you were going to pay up, he would have been the one to get. But to outbid 5 years and $70M is tough to do. Tyrann got 3 years and $28M on a deal that would take him to age 33 and unlike most in Philly, it was not one I was ever interested in.
In the draft, we won’t know how serious they were on safety outside of confirmed top-30 visits with Jalen Pitre and Jaquan Brisker, both of whom were gone before the Eagles 2nd round pick. Bryan Cook and JT Woods were still on the board at 51, but getting Kelce’s replacement and a higher graded player in Cam Jurgens was the right thing. By their 3rd round pick, only Kerby Joseph (who I really liked) and Nick Cross were still on the board and they again did the right thing with borderline 1st rounder Nakobe Dean still there. I really wanted Lewis Cine but once they traded for A.J. Brown and didn’t have a 1st to move back with, he wasn’t an option. And after that, the available safeties just weren’t the best players available – I can’t question any of their picks.
At this point, the free agent safety market is very thin with either older players or players that probably aren’t better than what the Eagles have. It is a really uninspiring list right now – some names:
Landon Collins – 54.7 defense grade, 28 years and plays more box safety
Deshazor Everett – 31.4 grade, 30 years old, and has only played 580 snaps since 2017.
The most interesting names would be the ones on the trade market with Jessie Bates topping the list. He would be expensive – currently on a tag at $12M in 2022, he is looking for a new deal and would be paid at or near the top of the league. The biggest issue with Bates is the price for a safety at that level almost surely includes a 1st round pick and I can’t see the Eagles sending one over without knowing that Hurts is the guy. Chuck Clark is another name linked to the Eagles in trade talks during the draft. Clark would be good depth at worst, but probably isn’t a long-term answer.
After the James Bradberry signing, safety is the only part of the defense that hasn’t been upgraded. But it isn’t worse than last year and there are reasons to be optimistic. Harris will de dependable. But if Epps continues the play he showed late last year and if K’Von can stay on the field and adjust to a two-high (he actually played deep 70% of snaps last year, highest in his pro and college career), the Eagles have a solid safety group. The issues are the depth and that the two players you are hoping to have the upside both haven’t shown anything over a longer period of time.
10 Foretellings The Crystal Ball Has Revealed For The Eagles 2022 Season
The Rise of Roseman, the Incredible Story of How Howie Roseman Became the Most Powerful Man in Philadelphia Sports
The Beginning:
The rise of Roseman is a fascinating tale. Whether fans like him or not, Howie Roseman’s name has become synonymous with the Philadelphia Eagles, and his story is one of the more unique in NFL history.
To say Howie’s humble beginnings as an intern, to his ascension of becoming the most powerful man in Philadelphia sports is unusual, would be a gross understatement. The meteoric rise rivals any outside of the amazing Vince Papale story of the movie “Invincible” fame.
Roseman was born in Brooklyn, New York in 1975, though he grew up in Marlboro Township in New Jersey. Howie has stated that he has known he wanted to work in the NFL since he was 9 or 10 years old. Unlike most kids at that age who wanted to be the President, a fireman, a ballplayer, etc., he stated that he would tell anyone who asked him that he wanted “to be a general manager of an NFL team”.
During his years at Marlboro High, Howie has stated that he begged his mother to allow him to play football, but she refused and would not sign the permission slip. Howie only weighed 125 pounds as a senior. So he focused his attention on working in the industry and began putting those childhood dreams to paper. Before he completed high school, he had sent letters to every franchise in the NFL.
After high school, Howie earned his college degree from the University of Florida, and a JD degree from Fordham Law. He also made time to keep pursuing his dream of being employed in the National Football League.
His persistence to inquire about every job opening in the NFL proved to be successful. He finally landed his first interview, and also got a taste of how hard it would be to get his foot into the door of the NFL fraternity.
Howie met with Mike Tannenbaum, then pro personnel director for the New York Jets, and interviewed for a player personnel internship in 1999. Tannenbaum explained what he told Howie about giving him a shot.
“I’ve got five minutes. The only reason I’m even going to spend five minutes, I look at my resumé file, I have 20 letters from you, and every time I send you a rejection, you’d send a thank you for the rejection.”
Howie’s name was becoming well known around league circles, and prior to his interview with the Jets, the Eagles team President Joe Banner and Mike Tannenbaum had discussed Howie Roseman.
Tannenbaum stated, “Could somebody be that persistent and be normal?”
Banner jokingly advised that when Mike did the interview to “Do it where there are a lot of people around”
Howie, if nothing else, was dedicated to reaching his goal. He did not get the job, but learned from the experience, and knew he would be more prepared for the next opportunity that should arise. His tenacious desire to work in the NFL paid off a year later.
In 2000, the Eagles and Joe Banner agreed to meet him. Banner still had the same concerns about Howie’s unrelenting letters requesting employment, that he had joked to Tannenbaum about a year earlier.
Banner joked “Was this guy the most persistent guy in the history of America or was he crazy? Should we stay away from him, or should one of us interview him?”
Howie was willing to be the butt of a good-natured joke as long as he got a chance for the job. He had a good interview and managed his way into the building at the old Veterans Stadium by way of an internship. He would assist in issues regarding the salary cap. Howie had his eyes on becoming much more.
Always being interested in the personnel side of the business, he spent many long nights studying film and would do write-ups and player evaluations and then distribute them in team meetings. He eventually earned the trust and respect of some lifelong football “guys” who had always viewed him as an outsider. Perception due to the fact he had never played, coached, etc. He still had his doubters, and those who would never accept him, but he was starting to earn the trust of someone much more important than any of them. The owner.
By 2003 he was named the Director of Football Administrations and in 2006 was promoted to Vice President of Football Administrations. His role was increasing and so were his contributions regarding player evaluations.
Slowly but surely his studies were being taken more seriously, and by 2008 Howie was becoming involved in the personnel side of the business and was Joe Banner’s sounding board for contracts. 2008 is also the year Howie was named Vice President of player personnel. A role he served in for 2 years, and the one that validated him as a talent evaluator.
In 2010, then-current Eagles GM, Tom Heckert accepted an offer from the Cleveland Browns to fill the same role as GM for their franchise. Upon Hekcert’s departure, Howie had done what was unimaginable 10 years earlier. He had worked his way into becoming the General Manager of the Philadelphia Eagles (although it is widely speculated he served in an advisory role to then Head Coach Andy Reid who had the final say on the roster).
Howie’s first time as GM:
Roseman’s responsibilities grew with the title, and he was expected to do a lot more than study film. He began to oversee the Eagles’ college and pro scouting departments, the medical team, and of course, manage the salary cap.
Howie wasted little time putting his stamp on the team, as he assisted in the transition of turning one of the league’s most aging rosters in 2010 and transforming them into one of the youngest.
The Eagles went 10–6 that season and hosted a wild card game. The future seemed bright, but Andy was about to exude his power of having the final say on the roster, and the team would look vastly different going forward.
2011 is remembered as the infamous, “Dream Team” season. It began with a lot of optimism. Andy Reid was beginning to see the writing on the wall in regards to his job being in jeopardy, and he was in desperation mode to save it. The signings of all of the well-known free agents excited the fans during the summer but disappointed during the season. The strategy didn’t translate to success and the Eagles missed the playoffs. Finishing the year 8–8, the season was a failure.
If the 2011 season is known for being the “dream”, 2012 was the nightmare. The campaign started off with an unthinkable tragedy during training camp. Andy Reid’s son, Garrett, was found unresponsive in a dorm room at Lehigh University’s campus. Garrett had been assisting the Eagles’ strength and conditioning coach during training camp. He was declared dead when emergency personnel arrived. Andy stayed working with the team as he dealt with his grief, but neither he, nor the team, ever recovered. They finished 4–12.
After the disappointing 2012 season, Andy Reid was relieved of his title, and the Eagles led by Howie Roseman replaced him by making a splash. For the first time since Jeff Lurie purchased the team, they dipped into the college ranks and hired the hottest college coach in the game. Chip Kelly.
The fast-paced offensive philosophies that Kelly brought with him from Oregon caught much of the league by surprise, and the Eagles went 10–6 during the 2013 campaign, including a surprising return to the postseason. The playoff performance, losing to the New Orleans Saints in the final minutes, didn’t end how the Eagles wanted, but the overall team improvement was deemed a success. Kelly’s stock was on the rise.
The 2014 season didn’t go as well, as the Eagles missed out on the playoffs. Chip intimated it was due to his personnel and personal disagreements with the front office. Specifically, Howie Roseman.
Prior to the 2015 season, Chip Kelly asked for, and received, what Howie had coveted for so long – total control of the roster. After shockingly losing the power struggle with the Head Coach, he accepted his demotion and eventual move to his place on “the other side of the building”. Kelly, like Reid before him, had pushed Howie into an advisory role.
Howie’s Hiatus:
Roseman stated that he spent his 2015 year in exile, away from most everyone else in the building. Famously mentioned by Jason Kelce in his SB speech.
“Howie Roseman, a few years ago, was relinquished of all control pretty much in this organization. He was put in the side of the building where I didn’t see him for over a year! Two years ago, when they made a decision, he came out of there a different man. He came out of there with a purpose and a drive to make this possible. And I saw a different Howie Roseman. An underdog.”
Howie began studying other professional sports teams during this time to see how the successful ones went about their business. Amongst the qualities that championship teams shared, he concluded that being a good GM is “All about the people.” and building relationships.
While Roseman was in seclusion learning everything he could, Chip was publicly floundering away his opportunity. The 2015 season was a disaster. Terrible trades, bad free agent signings, and overall poor personnel decisions translated to bad play on the field. The team was undisciplined, and declining on a weekly basis. Before the season ended, Chip Kelly was fired and Lurie anointed his “favorite son” back as acting GM.
Howie, understanding how rare it is to get his position back, was ready, rejuvenated, focused, and armed with a single purpose. To win a Super Bowl.
Redemption Tour:
His first order of business was to replace the man who caused him to lose his job. He made sure he brought the lessons he learned from his time away with him.
“I think when this happened, this was something I took to heart, and I think it goes back to what was really important to me and that was the relationships, so how can I build better relationships?”
After a very lengthy interview process, with numerous candidates, the head coach he chose was a controversial and highly debated decision. Howie never wavered and stayed true to what he had learned the previous year. Winning is “all about the people” He hired Doug Pederson.
Doug is respected around the league for being a man of the people. He was also someone Howie and the Eagles were very familiar with as both a player, when he mentored Donovan McNabb during his rookie season in 1999, and more recently serving as the Eagles QB coach, in 2011 and 12. More importantly to Eagles brass, Pederson was highly thought of by the team’s owner, and for having something that was sorely missed during Chip Kelly’s tenure, “emotional intelligence”.
Philadelphia Eagles owner, Jeff Lurie, made that phrase famous during the head coach hiring process when he stated the Eagles were looking for a leader “who can connect with his players, someone with emotional intelligence.”
Despite the ridicule from fans, the press, most notably Mike Lombardi (quoted below) the hire was ultimately proven to be the best of the 2016 coaching cycle.
“Doug Pederson! Now, everybody knows Pederson isn’t a head coach. He might be less qualified to coach a team than anyone I’ve ever seen in my 30-plus years in the NFL”
The Eagles vastly improved that season due to both the coaching, and the arrival of who was thought to be the long-term franchise QB. Carson Wentz. The story of how Howie moved up to the second spot in the 2016 draft to select Carson, is a story all in itself.
The 2017 season started off in Philadelphia, with the city hosting the NFL draft. In hindsight, some questionable draft picks were made by Howie and the Eagles. First round pick, Derek Barnett, did recover Brandon Graham‘s strip-sack of Tom Brady during the Super Bowl, but most of the players selected made very few contributions during their career with the Eagles.
Howie made up for those miscues by signing some of the greatest free agent acquisitions in the team’s history. The Eagles added future Super Bowl MVP, Nick Foles, wide receivers Alshon Jeffrey and Torrey Smith. Running backs LeGarrette Blount and Jay Ajayi (via trade) and tight end restricted free agent Trey Burton(Philly Special). He also added to the defensive side of the ball; cornerbacks Patrick Robinson (NFC Championship game hero) and Ronald Darby (via trade), D linemen Chris Long and Timmy Jernigan.
The bond between the players and head coach was never in question. Pederson was showering them all with his “emotional intelligence” and the players responded in a big way!
The 2017 season was a magical year. They beat the Giants behind the strong leg of Jake Elliot on a 61-yard field goal. They overcame losing the leading MVP candidate at the time, Carson Wentz, to a season-ending injury (torn ACL) in Los Angeles to the Rams. That is also the game where the legend of Nick Foles began.
Most fans and commentators thought the season was over when Wentz went down, but leaders like Malcolm Jenkins took control of the locker room. “We all we got, we all we need” became the team mantra and they finished the season 13–3. It seemed every button Howie, Doug, and the Eagles pushed was the right one. With wins over Atlanta and Minnesota at home in the playoffs, then beating Tom Brady and the Patriots in the Super Bowl, an improbable coach, QB, and city had finally achieved what it so desperately desired.
The season ended in the same place it started, Philadelphia. A joyous Super Bowl parade concluded at the art museum. The same spot where 9 months earlier the draft had been held.
Being the GM to lead the Eagles to their first championship in the Super Bowl era had to be an amazing, validating feeling for Howie. One he was going to try and duplicate. Head coach Doug Pederson proudly stated, “ This is the new normal”.
Chasing Another Ring:
The 2018 and 2019 seasons were both all about chasing another Super Bowl championship. They sold out the future by pushing contract cap hits down the road for a chance to find more postseason glory, and also by trading away draft picks for more established players they believed could help them immediately. A forward-thinking team, they knowingly took the calculated risks with short-term upside, then experienced the long-term ramifications.
The efforts didn’t end in another parade down Broad st, but it can’t be denied that ownership tried to recreate the magic and success while the window was open. Some have criticized the drafts and the trading of resources to strike while the iron was hot, but it is hard to fault the Eagles. They may have been one Alshon catch away from running it back. Neither season ended with another ring and at the conclusion of the 2019 postseason, the Eagles were preparing to head in a new direction.
Then the world changed overnight.
2020 will forever be remembered as the unusual pandemic season. It was a small miracle that the season was even played. The world, and the NFL, learned to adapt to life during a pandemic due to the spread of the COVID 19 coronavirus. As everything was being shut down worldwide, the NFL was putting protocols in place for player safety, and trying to figure out a way for the season to avoid being canceled.
Amazingly, the show went on. Though it did so without fans in the stands, which drastically reduced the revenue that the owners and teams were accustomed to collecting. As a result, for the first time since the salary cap was instituted in 1994, the amount each team was able to spend on their players was going to be reduced. The 2021 salary cap would decrease by 8%, and the Eagles were about to learn the meaning of the phrase “you reap what you sow”.
Howie’s “cap wizardry” also known by some as his proverbial kicking the can down the street, is basically borrowing money from the future to invest in players today. The thought behind structuring deals in this manner is simple. Since the cap increases every year, as does the value of player contracts, you pay the player now in today’s dollars before their salary will cost the team more in future years.
So how has Howie, and a lot of other GMs, manipulated the “soft” cap?
EX: A player signs a 5-year $50 million dollar contract.
Step One: Assign $25 million of that money in the form of a signing bonus. Signing bonuses are prorated (meaning they can be spread across the life of the contract, or even longer if you add “dummy years”) So now you have $25 million of the $50 million being spread over the 5-year deal. $5 million a year, for five years. The player cashes a $25 million dollar check, so it’s a win for them too.
Step Two: Push the bulk of the remaining $25 million that’s left in the last couple of years of the deal. The team doesn’t want to spread it evenly over the years, we have already established that. They want to pay less now and pay more later when the cap is higher. Thus a smaller percentage of the cap is dedicated to that player’s salary. So, in year one of five, they pay $1 million of the remaining $25. In year two they pay $2 million. Year three $3 million. Year four $4million. Finally, during year five, they pay out the remaining $15 million. Orchestrating the cap in this way has its downfalls with dead money etc, but usually is effective in adding value and getting more from your current cap.
Unfortunately for Howie and the Eagles, this time it came back to bite them in an ugly way. The cap didn’t increase, the Eagles were forced to make tough cuts and decisions to be compliant. The looming cap issues, coupled with the team’s decision to select Jalen Reagor over Justin Jefferson in round one of the 2020 draft, had fans, and a lot of media personalities calling for Roseman to be fired.
To be fair, nobody could foresee a global pandemic coming that would cause a loss of revenue, lowering the league’s salary cap for every team. But, it did happen, and the Eagles were in the daunting position of having to pay up sooner than expected.
The team had to move on from a few high-priced veterans via cuts or trades, while taking on huge dead money hits (Wentz was the largest dead money hit in NFL history at the time of his trade)in order to reach the target of being under the $182.5 million before the new league calendar year started.
Howie, known for being a salary cap wizard, lived up to his reputation of being able to fix a checkbook fast. He weathered the storm and maneuvered the team into having a positive cash flow by the season’s end. He was heading into the 2021 season with a lot to prove and a lot of room for improvement.
Rebuild and Coach Hire #3, Also Winning Drafts:
After orchestrating the rebuilds of the 2013 and 2016 teams, Howie was in the unique position to start a third rebuild in 2021. Once again he began by hiring a new head coach. The Eagles hired the Offensive coordinator of the Indianapolis Colts, Nick Sirianni. The decision to hire Nick, much like the hiring of Doug, was questioned and debated. A lot of more established candidates were available, but Lurie and Howie hired someone they viewed as an ascending talent and for having fresh ideas. After a playoff appearance in year one, that choice seems to be trending in the right direction.
Howie’s next order of business was trading away QB Carson Wentz. Carson was dealt with the Indianapolis Colts, in February 2021, a month after the Eagles hired their new coach. Despite taking on a $33.8 million dollar cap hit during the 2021 season for trading him, the decision was received well. The Eagles received a 2021 3rd round pick and a 2022 first rounder, as Wentz (surprisingly) played 75% of the Colt’s snaps.
Armed with additional picks in the upcoming draft, Howie and the Eagles focused on their player evaluations. They vowed to not have an aversion to risk and compiled their board accordingly.
The 2021 NFL draft class included selecting DeVonta Smith and Landon Dickerson in rounds one and two. After one season, the early returns seem to promise, and the draft has been one of the more universally liked from the beginning. The team seemingly focused more on drafting athletes who had played for winners at the college level (two national champions) and players who were highly respected, including team captains. A strategy Howie and the Eagles stuck with for the 2022 draft.
While the 2021 draft was universally liked, 2022 was invariably loved. The Eagles selected 2 players from the National Champion Georgia Bulldogs defense. Jordan Davis and Captain Nakobe Dean. The theme of building through the lines while selecting winners, champions, and Captains, was again at the forefront of their decision-making. Once you include the trade to acquire Tennessee WR AJ Brown for picks 18 and 101, the haul seems to be a home run.
Prior to the draft, the Eagles also publicly committed to Jalen Hurts as their Quarterback for now, and in the future.
Howie Roseman and the Eagles seem to have the beginnings of a very good, long-term, nucleus in place. Especially if current starting QB Jalen Hurts improves as expected. If he doesn’t, the Eagles are positioned with 2 first round picks in the 2023 draft to select the QB of their choice.
Howie’s Future, To Infinity and Beyond:
It has been an amazing ride for Howie. While a lot of fans have lost faith in him over the years, his ability to run the franchise and for constructing the 2017 championship team, (the only Super Bowl win in Eagles history) has earned a lot of equity with owner Jeff Lurie.
During the times the Eagles have struggled, Lurie has defended Howie like a father would their son. Some have suggested that Lurie views the Eagles via Howie-colored lenses. If true, he isn’t the only in league circles enamored with him.
Howie is well respected amongst the GMs in the league and has been described as feared by player agents. He is known as a very shrewd and tough negotiator during contract discussions, and it’s been stated that he is convincingly manipulative. There are also reports of agents who felt that they were taken advantage of at the conclusion of some deals. Those players have been less than happy during those negotiations, yet others feel loved and very well taken care of by Howie and the team.
He knows and accepts that he will not be everyone’s cup of tea, but he does have his supporters. Players who are still on the team like Jason Kelce, and many who have since retired speak very fondly of Howie. More importantly, he has the full support of owner Jeff Lurie.
Throughout his 20 years with the team, Howie has experienced many ups and downs but has always remained confident.
“I’m not worried about my job, that’s not anything that really concerns me. That’s out of my hands. I’m worried (about) doing what’s the best and right thing for this team to get back.”
Howie’s confidence in keeping his job seems to be warranted as he recently signed a 3-year contract extension through the 2025 season. Coincidentally, the extension for Roseman matches that of Sirianni’s contract. Both run through the 2025 season.
Coming off the most impressive draft weekend of his tenure, the Eagles are positioning themselves to make another run towards Super Bowl glory. Who knows, the rise of Roseman might just have another act worthy of an extension beyond 2025.
Results:
Roseman has had the final say for 9 NFL drafts. I am excluding 2010–2012 when it is widely believed Andy Reid had the final say, despite Roseman being GM in title.
2013, 2014, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022
During those 8 years (2022 results TBD) the Eagles have won 71 games, lost 58, made the playoffs 5 of the 8 years, and of course, won a Super Bowl.
As always, Thank You for reading!
Follow me @PHLEaglenews
David
5–9–22
Are Jordan Davis and Nose Tackles a New Premium Position?
When the Eagles drafted Jordan Davis, there were more people dismissing the pick than I expected, citing the lack of positional value of a non-pass rusher (and one that people think will only be on the field for 20-30 snaps a game). I wanted to look at how the league, and specifically the Fangio / Staley defenses that are taking over, view nose tackles.
While nose tackles aren’t quite going to compete with receivers and edge rushers for premium position status, their priority is changing because of their importance in making these defenses work.
The Fangio defense is spreading but results are mixed
The Vic Fangio and offshoot defenses are spreading across the NFL, with the Rams, Packers, Bears, and Chargers hiring Fangio disciples over the past few years. Last season, the Eagles brought in Sirianni and Brandon Staley’s childhood friend and like-minded defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon. This offseason, there is further movement as longtime Bears defensive coach Sean Desai goes to Seattle as their assistant head coach and Ed Donatell, who worked with Fangio three different times, was hired by Minnesota as defensive coordinator.
In the NFL arms race, these defenses are a reaction to the wide zone offenses that rose over the past 10 years. They are complex and fascinating defenses that are sometimes viewed as shifting focus from run defense to pass defense, which isn’t quite accurate. To me, these defenses attempt to make opposing offenses work harder across the board.
Two-high safety shells that drop an additional player into coverage and bring flexibility into coverage schemes to eliminate explosive plays
Light boxes with gap-and-a-half fronts to pressure with less and encourage offenses to run
Structured run fits that make the different levels of the defense work together
A couple of examples from @WeeklySpiral who has a great, longer breakdown of the Fangio defense. This first clip demonstrates Staley’s Tite front with three defensive linemen inside the tackles and five on the line vs. six blockers, the nose consuming a double-team, two linebackers and two-high safety where Taylor Rapp is responsible for the run fit to the open B-gap.
And a second clip showing the flexibility and complexity of the backend coverage and how it relates to the pressure – initial two-high look that rotates coverage post-snap, a rare corner blitz with only four rushers that still gets pressure and maintains an extra man in coverage.
Currently, the Rams are the best example of these defenses. In 2020 with the Rams, Staley ran a light box 78% of the time, 2nd highest in the league, on way to the league’s best defense. The Rams followed this up with a top ten defense in 2021 that was both a solid run and pass defense on way to winning the Super Bowl.
But besides the Rams, these defenses haven’t been able to balance pass and run defense
The other teams mentioned have not duplicated the Rams success so far. Aspects of the defensive scheme have worked – each was better against the pass and most were good limiting explosive plays but only the Bears had a better than average overall defense. And they all really suffered against the run – all were below league average with four in the bottom third of the league and two (the Packers and Chargers) near the very bottom.
Overall Defense DVOA Rank
Pass Defense DVOA Rank
Run Defense DVOA Rank
Explosive Play Rate Allowed Rank
Rams
5
6
5
13
Bears
13
12
24
20
Broncos
20
20
21
14
Packers
22
16
28
9
Eagles
25
25
18
6
Chargers
26
19
30
23
Changing the coverage math requires different personnel
Limiting explosive plays by “putting a roof on the offense” as Staley says and making the entire offense work more patiently sounds great. But just like how every team tried unsuccessfully to copy Seattle’s Cover-3, the same is happening here without the personnel to make it work.
The other Fangio defenses just haven’t put it together yet.
Staley’s Chargers weren’t good enough up front to stop the run…
The Eagles and Bears weren’t able to stay in two-high because they had to push another defender into the box too often, ending the year in the middle of the league in two-high snaps…
The Packers and Broncos couldn’t pressure the QB with bottom-of-the-league pass rush win rates…
There’s no one solution and the different coaches have different approaches, but despite the view that this defense does not require top talent at certain positions, the actual practice is these teams seek out talent at all levels of the defense. Staley will never stop collecting corners, pass rushers are always in demand, a different type of safety is needed.
And nose tackles are rising in importance
Nose tackles are consistently listed right above running backs, kickers, and punters on the list of premium positions. But while never a headline, each of the Fangio defenses has continually sought out nose tackles as they built their defenses.
Here are two quick clips on what NTs are expected to do and the value they bring to the scheme. The first is Sebastian Joseph-Day playing two gaps which is necessary to push an added man into coverage. The second is Kenny Clark consuming a double-team for a run stop.
This changes the historical devaluation of the position and forces us to think differently about a position that rarely shows up in stats. Here are recent moves by the Packers, Broncos, Chargers, and Eagles:
Packers signed Kenny Clark to a DT record 4 year / $70M extension in 2020: By his standards, Clark had a down year in 2021 with a 9.1% run stop rate, 20th in the league (which was still better than any Eagle). But Clark has consistently been top 10 in the league in run stops throughout his career and is in the same conversation with Vita Vea as nose tackles that also consistently pressure the QB.
Broncos sign D.J. Jones (3 year / $30M) this offseason: In 2021, Jones was 2nd in the NFL with a 13.1% run stop rate and had the 3rd best rate of stops at or behind the LOS by a DT since 2016.
Chargers sign Sebastian Joseph-Day (3 year / $24M) and Austin Johnson (2 year / $14M) this offseason: Staley’s collection of cornerbacks is widely known but don’t overlook that he spent $38M on TWO nose tackles this offseason. Joseph-Day, who played for him on the Rams, missed half the season last year with a torn pec but led the league with a 15.5% run stop rate. Austin Johnson was 9th in the league with a 10.4% run stop rate, right behind Vita Vea. And, he added UCLA NT Otito Ogbonnia in the 5th round of the draft.
And the Eagles use pick 13 on Jordan Davis: The Eagles traded up to get Davis whose ranks as the most athletic interior linemen out of 1,378 prospects since 1987. Additionally, they brought in 6’4″ 346 pound PFA Noah Elliss.
The NFL obviously goes in cycles, but the rising importance of nose tackles has been a trend for several years. Below shows how many of the top 10 and top 15 paid interior defensive linemen were nose tackles by year and what share of the top 15 total AAV they consumed.
# Top 10 NTs
# Top 15 NTs
% of Top 15 AAV on NTs
2018
1
3
14.8%
2019
1
3
16.0%
2020
2
4
22.2%
2021
3
6
33.9%
2022
3
6
34.1%
With the average AAV for nose tackles in the top 15 at just over $11M, they aren’t anywhere near competing with the top pass rushers. But over the past five years, the number of nose tackles being paid in the top 10 and top 15 of interior defenders and the total share of cap going to NTs have both steadily increased. And outside of Tampa’s Vita Vea and Green Bay’s Kenny Clark, they aren’t being paid for pass rushing.
Which brings us to Jordan Davis…
Many in Philly still look at Jordan Davis only as a “run-stuffing defensive tackle that comes off the field on passing downs” and were disappointed with the pick. But these defenses value – and require because of their fundamental structure moving away from +1 in the box – players that can handle multiple gaps and consume blockers.
If you don’t follow anonymous ex-scout @TheHonestNFL, go do so – just a continual flow of great insight into the game. But THN has been pounding for months why a player like Davis is so needed in Gannon’s defense:
When teams can’t stop the run, it spills over to the passing game as they are forced to do exactly what THN explains above – move an additional player into the box. Despite wanting to be a two-high team, in 2021 the Eagles were only 15th in the league in pre-snap two-high alignments. This is one of the most telling stats from this past season – Gannon was forced out of two-high to add run support too often.
To think of Davis as “just a run stuffer” ignores how coverage and the front affect each other. I went back and re-watched all of his snaps in this year’s College Championship game – Alabama double-teamed (and sometimes triple-teamed) Davis on 58% of his snaps. As he said in his draft press conference, “if it’s two on me, somebody’s free”.
In the National Championship game, even with being doubled most of the game Davis still had 2 pressures on 27 dropbacks and 2 run stops on 20 run defense snaps as Georgia avenged their SEC Championship loss to Alabama.
As a comparison, the week prior in the Orange Bowl Michigan decided to double Davis on “only” 35% of his snaps. It was an awful idea. He had 2 tackles for loss on only 9 run defense snaps (one against a double team) and a QB hit and 2 hurries on only 16 dropback snaps. But if they double him, it weakens something somewhere else.
This is what got him drafted. In the first play, four rushers vs. six blockers and Davis pushes past a single blocker (who didn’t have Davis locked up before trying to get to the next level) and is the first in the backfield. In the second play, Davis holds up a double, sheds, and pulls Hassan Haskins down in the backfield. And the final play is another single block where Davis pulls the center and shows speed in to pressure the QB. Not double-teaming him just doesn’t work.
For the season, Davis was 1st in this draft class with a 12.2% run stop rate and 2nd in average depth of tackle. Football ultimately comes down to numbers and if Davis can consistently consume two or three blockers, he changes the game.
And, just to end, some clips that I love from @MattAlkire from shortly after the 2021 draft on what Jordan Davis can do and why he was going to be special. Stay to the end for the Green Mile comment.
Jordan Davis is a grizzly bear. Three plays here and the third is just silly. pic.twitter.com/TNkTyBOtCg
This is mostly a post for myself to look back on after the draft, see what I was right and wrong on, and what I need to adjust to next year. I created a horizontal draft board with probably 100-120 players on it and below is a summary of my priority targets at each main pick location.
Pick Range
Prioritized Draft Targets
R1 Trade up (8-12)
CB Ahmad Gardner CB Derek Stingley
R1 Picks 15 & 18
WR Jameson Williams WR Garrett Wilson DT Jordan Davis CB Trent McDuffie EDGE Jermaine Johnson WR Drake London EDGE George Karlaftis WR Treylon Burks
R1 Trade down (25-35)
S Lewis Cine S Daxton Hill CB Kaiir Elam WR Jahan Dotson CB Kyler Gordon CB Andrew Booth DT Travis Jones EDGE Arnold Ebiketie
R2 Trade up (35-45)
5T Logan Hall EDGE Boye Mafe WR Skyy Moore LB Quay Walker
R2 (51)
DT Perrion Winfrey 5T Josh Paschal EDGE Nik Bonnito LB Chad Muma LB Christian Harris
R3 (83)
EDGE Kingsley Enagbare CB Cam Taylor-Britt S Kerby Joseph WR Calvin Austin WR Khalil Shakir LB Channing Tindall S Brian Cook OG Dylan Parham OC Cole Strange OG Sean Rhyan TE Charlie Kolar
R4
OL Zach Tom CB Jalyn Armour-Davis CB Cordale Flott LB Brandon Smith RB Rachaad White WR Erik Ezukanma S Tycen Anderson
R5
DT Neil Farrell OL Matt Waletzko P Jordan Stout RB Keaontay Ingram LB Kyron Johnson DL Matt Henningsen CB Martin Emerson RB Hassan Haskins
R6
LB D’Marco Jackson DL Michael Clemons CB Joshua Williams CB Damarion Williams WR Tyquan Thornton OL Jean Delance
R7-PFA
S Joey Blount DL Jayden Peevy DL Noah Ellis CB Decobie Durant WR Tre Turner S JT Woods OL Devin Cochran OL Austin Deculus RB Jerion Ealy P Jake Camarda
Couple of notes:
Trade-up: I am not a trade-up guy at all but have two players I would trade up for (Sauce and Stingley). Two reasons: first, I think there is a decent drop-off from Sauce and Stingley to the next group of corners.
And second, in a draft that most think is deep but lacking top-end prospects, I think Sauce and Stingley would stand up with the top CBs taken the last several years. I don’t feel the same way with WRs and EDGEs – I’d rather have Treylon/JJ/Karlaftis without losing a pick or Dotson/Ebiketie/Travis Jones/Cine with an extra pick from trading down than to move up for pick-your-player-in-the-top-10.
Some players I notably left off include Kyle Hamilton (I don’t think the gap between him and Cine and Daxton is that big at all) and Jordan Davis (I love Davis but he either falls to us or I go after Travis Jones or Perrion Winfrey).
The 25-40 pick range: A lot think Howie will probably look to move another pick and when you look at the players between are 18 and 51 picks, there are a lot of really interesting players:
If you miss out on Jordan Davis, I would love Travis Jones or Perrion Winfrey
The Eagles really need a safety and Daxton Hill and Lewis Cine will go in between 18 and 51
Kyler Gordon and Kaiir Elam would be good options at corner if they don’t move up
If there is a run on EDGEs, Arnold Ebiketie and Boye Mafe would fall in this late 1st / early 2nd range
And if they don’t get a receiver at 15 or 18, I would absolutely love Jahan Dotson or Skyy Moore but neither will likely be there at 51.
Players I would hope to not have to make a decision on: A few players in the 1st round area that many like but I have enough reservation on that I would hope to not have to make a decision on them:
Chris Olave – I watch his film and really like a lot of what he does. But his underlying per route stats are not good. Does that mean he won’t be good? No, but per route stats have raised flags on other receivers in the past, including Reagor.
David Ojabo – I tweeted on him before, the data on Achilles recovery is really not good with power being diminished for up to 3 years.
Jermaine Johnson – I have him on the board above and I like him, but I worry about the older prospects as I previously wrote. I would still probably take him but the history is not great here.
Pre Draft Look Inside the Mind of Eagles G.M. Howie Roseman, The Anatomy of a Trade
Earlier this offseason I opined that Howie seemingly likes to make trades regarding picks in the first round of the NFL draft, a month in advance. Last year with the Dolphins and again this season with the Saints.
During a press conference last week, Howie confirmed that opinion and explained his reasoning.
“In the first round we’ve always found that it’s helpful to have those trades mapped out beforehand. The way that goes isn’t like, ‘Hey, we’re definitely doing this.’ “It’s if we’re moving up, hey, if there’s a player that we want that falls to that spot, here’s what we would do. Are we good on the trade compensation? So that you pick up the phone and I say ‘Hey, the guy’s still there. You guys good?’ ‘Yeah’, Trade is done.
And why is that helpful?
“We have two picks, so I think you’re planning every scenario about who you would move up for, who you would be really comfortable staying (for), how many players you would be comfortable staying (for), and what are the tiers that you would move back for and what you would take. So you’re not sitting there and going, ‘We think it should be this and this and they think it should be this and this.’ It’s too hectic to do that in the first round.”
So what was the difference with the Saints trade, as opposed to waiting to see how the board was falling on draft night?
“I think for us and New Orleans, that was one of the comforts of the trade, we both knew what we were comfortable for. It didn’t really matter what the trade chart said. They were comfortable with the deal, and we were comfortable with the deal, and I think those are the best trades.”
What about days 2 and 3 of the draft?
“When you get into the second round, third round and beyond, those things do happen on the clock because they’re simpler, but when it gets into the first round, all those conversations will be had before the fact. Even our trade last year we kind of set parameters of what that was, and so when we picked up the phone and called Dallas we kind of knew what the trade was going to be and what the price was going to be and that we had discussed that.”
And for the fans worried about “Howie szn” making a deal just to make a deal, he has those parameters already in place as well.
“Obviously, there’s a price that doesn’t make sense to move back either. We’re not going to move back 10 picks for a 5th-round pick. So I think at the end of the day you kind of go through all those and you have a really good sense of what you want to do.”
Heading into what could be the most franchise defining draft of Howie’s career (the wheeling and dealing for Wentz might be #1) what has Howie said to be the lessons that have been learned from the previous years?
“Certainly, when you look at some of the mistakes that I’ve made personally, it’s because you try to force something. I think you’re constantly evaluating the things that you do wrong, and you also want to learn from the things you did right and lessons that you have from that. You’re going to mess things up, but what can you learn from those picks that didn’t work out?”
What does Howie think about the Jalen Reagor pick?
“Obviously, I know (Reagor) gets a lot of attention in this city, and I know he’s working his butt off. When you look back (2020) was a hard year for some guys because you had COVID, you didn’t have an offseason program. So sometimes, the book isn’t necessarily written on all those guys.”
How does the organization view Jalen Hurts and the QB position?
Eagles chairman and CEO Jeffrey Lurie last month at the NFL owners’ meetings. “Who knows what the future holds? We all have this vision, myself included, that’s an automatic franchise quarterback. It’s almost nonexistent, and when it does exist, you’re very, very lucky to have that.”
Lurie continued, using Bills franchise QB Josh Allen as an example of being patient.;
“After year one or year two, is Josh Allen a franchise quarterback? Was he even thought to be a franchise quarterback when Buffalo drafted him? I think the answers are clearly no, no and no. He developed into one.”
I do not know if many evaluators ever looked at the 2 QB’s as being remotely similar, but the stats seem to back up Luries’ comments, and his hopes.
Josh Allen completed 52.8% of his passes during his rookie year and 58.8% his second season. His passer ratings were 67.9 and 85.3
Jalen Hurts improved from 57.1% to 61.3% during his first full year as a starter in 2021. Jalens’ passer ratings were 77.6 and 87.2
Allen was drafted 7th overall and Hurts 53rd.
Lurie, Howie and the Eagles have another reason to be patient with Jalen. His salary only counts towards 1.9 million of the cap in 2022 and his rookie contract doesn’t expire until the conclusion of the 2023 season.
Despite fans desiring the likes of Russell Wilson and DeShaun Watson the past year. This affordable, reasonable approach, was always the most likely ending.
As NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah has stated regarding rookie QB deals
“I always tell everybody, if it’s close, you’re going to 100% go with the rookie (quarterback) over the veteran, because it’s not the rookie vs. the veteran. It’s the rookie and the 3 or 4 other players you’re going to be able to fit in that same salary structure vs. the veteran.”
Are more trades likely to happen?
The Eagles still have 2 first round picks in the 2022 NFL Draft, and theyhave some potential trade partners lined up, depending on how the selections play out Thursday night.
Possible suitors include trading up from pick 15 with the Panthers, Jets or Seahawks, and or trading down from 18 with the Green Bay Packers. Other options are on the table as well.
Now that the draft is upon us, and the Eagles seem to be focused on adding talent to help Jalen, rather than replace him. What happens if he stumbles?
Alabama’s Bryce Young and Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud are considered the top QB prospects in the 2023 draft and with 2 first round picks, the Eagles will be in prime position to acquire either of them (or anyone else).
As always, Thank You for reading!
David
Follow me @PHLEagleNews
4/26/22
Eagles Draft History: 2002, The Best Draft, and Doubling Up
Statistically, the Eagles best draft over the past twenty years was the 2002 draft where they selected:
Peters, Milons, and Harrison only totaled 21 games played and 1 total Approximate Value (AV) but the other five picks were long-term players in the league that greatly outperformed their draft slot.
This draft was not only the best Eagles draft since 2000, it was the 23rd highest value draft out of 702 total drafts by the league. Below shows an indexed value of every team’s draft since 2000. The number shown is that team’s AV share of that year’s total AV with the average draft indexed to 100, meaning a team with a value of 100 had an average draft and numbers above 100 are better drafts (as an example, a team with a 120 would have gotten 20% more value than the average draft).
In 2002 the Eagles 192.7 total draft value was not only their highest over this period by a large margin (the next closest are all in the 145-157 range) but almost doubled the average value of a draft. The five players above – Lito, Sheldon Brown, Michael Lewis, Westbrook, and Raheem Brock – all had career values above 43 AV. To put this in context:
The average draft pick has a career value of 16 career AV
The average value of 1st round selections is just under 43 career AV and day two draft picks is 22 AV
Only 539 players out of 2,753 non-active draft picks (19.7%) since 2000 have accumulated a career value of 43 or more
I previously wrote on the Eagles top 10 best draft values with Brian Westbrook number two on the list behind only Jason Kelce, who is a likely hall-of-famer taken in the 6th round. Over a four year period, there was nobody better than Westbrook with the dual-threat averaging 75 receptions, 212 rushes, and almost 1,700 scrimmage yards per season.
With the Eagles famous draft double-up (actually triple-up with two corners and a safety with their first three picks), the trio of Lito, Sheldon, and Michael Lewis immediately remade the Eagles secondary. In a span that kept most of them together through the 2008 season, they totaled 41 interceptions in what seems like a different era when the Eagles defense averaged over 15 interceptions a year, a number they haven’t reached since 2017.
The last pick, 7th-rounder Raheem Brock, is another player that had a good career elsewhere. After the Philly-native and Temple grad was drafted, the Eagles ran out of rookie salary cap space and gave up his rights. Brock was claimed off waivers by the Colts and went on to have a solid 10-year career, recording 40.5 sacks and 14 fumbles forced and winning a Super Bowl championship.
Doubling-up in the draft
The Eagles have doubled-up with high picks a few times since then, but never with the same impact.
2010 – Doubling up on defensive ends In 2010 they took two defensive ends, Brandon Graham in the 1st and Daniel Te’o-Nesheim in the 3rd with BG obviously being an all-time Eagle.
2011 – Disastrous corners With picks in the 2nd and 3rd, the Eagles again tried to invest in their secondary with Jaiquawn Jarrett and Curtis Marsh. The two totaled 6 career AV and were both 10th percentile players.
2017 – Again trying to double-up on corners For the third time, the Eagles double-up on corners with pre-injury projected 1st-round pick Sidney Jones taken in the 2nd and Rasul Douglas taken in the 3rd.
I love when teams double up in the draft. First, it is just exciting to really invest in a position. Too many people have their list of needs and when they mock, move neatly from one to the next and end with a mock that ”checks” all the key positions. And second, nothing in the draft is certain and it raises the chances of hitting at a position.
Reading Matt Alkire’s recent “Eagles Draft Preview” got me thinking more on this. In it, Matt speculates on the Eagles doubling up on pass rushers with a Karlaftis or Johnson in the first and Nik Bonnito in the second. I think Matt is right on DL being the most likely position to double up on. Here I wanted to dig into possible double-ups that could make sense this year (and caveats that positions should not force picks, Howie should and I believe will stay to their value board):
Pass Rush I already covered Matt’s speculation on pass rushers above which is the most likely position to be doubled up on. Besides Karlaftis/Johnson and Bonitto, here are a couple of others across the entire line:
R1 Jermaine Johnson and R2 Perrion Winfrey
R2 Josh Paschal and R3 Kingsley Enagbare
Wide Receiver Some are wondering if the Eagles would / should take a receiver in the 1st for the third year in a row but with where free agency prices are, wide receiver is becoming a position that just needs to be continually invested in. With DeVonta, Quez, and Zach Pascal, there probably isn’t room for multiple high picks but they need a WR2 and after the three mentioned, everybody else could be / should be upgraded:
R1 Treylon Burks and R3 Jalen Tolbert
R1 Chris Olave and R3 Alec Pierce
R2 George Pickens and R3 Khalil Shakir
Secondary I don’t read anything specific into the fact that three of the four times the Eagles doubled up with day 1 and day 2 picks, it was for cornerback. Given the various corners they have been collecting and the need at safety, I will mix corners and safeties here:
R1 Kaiir Elam and R3 Kerby Joseph
R1 Lewis Cine and R3 Coby Bryant
R1 Daxton Lewis and R2 Cam Taylor-Britt
Bonus: Special Teams A little off-topic as these won’t be day 1 or day 2 picks, but I couldn’t resist and the Eagles have actually shown some interest in special teamers. You all know my feelings on punter but the other ST spot they really need is a returner:
Lewis Cine: A Remarkable Journey From Haiti to America, and the NFL
Georgia safety standout Lewis Cinecan do everything!
The Georgia Bull Dogs safety’s stock is on the rise after his play in 2021 and for his MVP performance in the National Title game. Lewis is a physical player who is also the enforcer on the field, striking fear into opposing players. He has improved every year, and hasn’t missed a game. Viewed by most to be as close to a “can’t miss” prospect as there is, meet Lewis Cine!
Cine (pronouned SEEN) was born in Haiti October 5, 1999. His mother, Beatrice Seide, was 16 years old when Lewis was born (which is why Cine wears jersey #16) To Lewis, it represents how she is always with him, despite his mother never having been to the United States.
“My mom had me when she was 16,” Cine said. “So when she did, she struggled early on to raise me. Those times weren’t easy for her. I keep that time she took care of me when it was hard back then very close to my heart.”
When Lewis was 4 years old, he left his homeland for a more promising future in the US, moving in with family in Florida. Cine spent several years splitting his time between Haiti and Florida before settling to Everett Massachusetts to live with his father during middle school.
Cine has stated that he was introduced to football when he was in the second grade, but he didn’t play until he moved to Everett. Being late to the game never hindered Lewis, and he quickly developed skills that surpassed his peers who had played football their whole lives.
By his junior year, playing for Everett High School, he was already being recognized as one of the most talented players in the state, and was named defensive player of the year by USA Today. Cine had 65 tackles, two sacks, two interceptions, two fumble recoveries, and a blocked kick that season, as Everett finished a perfect 12–0, winning the MIAA state championship.
The college champion also started to show off his speed, as he lettered in track and boasted times of 6.94 in the 55 meters, 11.70 in the 100 meters and 16.35 in the 110-meter hurdles.
Things were looking bright for the future Georgia Bull Dogs safety, but at seasons end the head football coach for Everett retired. Lewis, once again, was on the move. This time Cine was headed west, to Cedar Hill Texas, to live with an uncle.
His life was about to take a very furtitous turn towards reaching his goal of playing in the NFL!
Lewis enrolled at Trinity Christian High School where he was coached by none other than HOF cornerback Deion Sanders.
“Deion Sanders is really God’s gift to me,” Cine said
Under assistant coach Prime Time Sander’s tutelage, Lewis took his skills to an elite level.
Cine ended his senior year with 85 tackles, 13 (TFL), 2 interceptions, and 2 forced fumbles. The season in Texas ended the same way his previous one in Massachusetts had. Lewis’ high school team went undefeated, (14–0) and won the state championship.
Lewis had garnered some attention from colleges in Everett, but it went to a different stratosphere while playing in the heart of football Heaven, in Texas.
The kid who arrived in America at age 4 now had his pick of Colleges, as he received 36 scholarship offers. He committed to Georgia, choosing them over in state colleges Texas, Texas A&M, as well as Michigan, Penn St and Florida.
Lewis showed a taste of what was to come in the future during his freshman year. He appeared in 14 games and earned the right to start in the final two, by showing his abilities during limited playing time, inlcuding his first collegiate INT.
By 2021 Cine had become the full time starter. The level of play (and the stat sheet) was even more impressive with the extra playing time. Lewis lead the Bull Dogs in tackles with 73, added 9 pass deflections, and an INT. After the season Lewis declared for the NFL.
His college career concluded with a National Championship and being named defensive MVP of the game!
As hard as Lewis has worked to make it to the NFL, the end goal has always been something far more dear to his heart.
“My dream is not all about making the league,” Cine said. “My dream is to move my Mom with me to America after I make the league. That’s different I guess than most kids. One day I am most likely going to be the one to work my butt off so she can come to America.”
This weeks NFL draft will bring that dream closer to becoming a reality.
Attributes:
Heading into the draft Cine is viewed as a first round talent and one of the top safety’s available- he is the full package
He has speed! The short bursts, top speed, and the ability to change directions
A hard hitter, Ouch! that’s going to leave a mark.- He is feared and always accounted for by opposing offenses. He makes ball carriers think twice about going over the middle when he is out there roaming.
Cine has natural instincts that can not be taught. He identifies routes and disrupts them in a hurry. He gave up only one TD in pass coverage!
He also wins the “you can’t see me” award. He was only one flagged once in 2021
Cine is vocal on field, and is a leader that helps teammates set coverages.
Lewis is never shy. He engages violent contact with ball carriers.
Seemingly always takes great angles to attack the football.
He is not just a big hitter, he’s also sure tackler.
Per PFF, Cine only missed 11 tackles during his 3 years at Georgia.
His footwork might be the best of any safety in the draft.
Athleticism? How about a 4.37-second 40-yard dash, a 36.5-inch vertical, and an 11-foot-1 broad jump at combine!
Good hands, he uses them to take advantage of bad throws and create turnovers.
He is an ascending talent who can do anything he’s asked. FS SS cover run def
Very coachable per Georgia Head coach Kirby Smart:
“When you design a safety, he’s got all the qualities… he’s really been a student of the game.”
His versatile style of play, and excellence as a down hill run stopper, is a perfect fit for the Eagles.
