Butterfly Effect- The idea that small changes may have large effects. A phenomenon whereby a minute localized change in a complex system can have large effects elsewhere.
How the 2022 Philadelphia Eagles ended up with DeVonta Smith, A.J. Brown, Jordan Davis, Kyron Johnson, a 2023 first-round pick, and a 2024 second-round pick is quite remarkable.
The Eagles entered the offseason with three first-round picks: 15 (from the Dolphins), 16 (from the Colts in the Wentz deal), and 19 (their own). There were plenty of assets for Roseman to facilitate a trade if he wanted to acquire a star player or get future draft capital for 2023 and beyond. He somehow managed to do it all.
When the Eagles lost to the WFT ending their 2020 season, it brought two things into focus for the 2021 season. Who the playoff teams would be heading into the wild card weekend, and more importantly for Philadelphia, where they would be drafted in April. Which would be pick 6, the good kind.
Not to mention, trading Carson Wentz freed up 100+ million that afforded the Eagles to sign A.J. Brown, Reddick, Bradberry, etc. Ah, the joys of a QB on a rookie contract.
So how did Howie and the Eagles get it all done?
Losing to Washington:
Now that the 2022 draft results are in the books, here is what the Eagles net from that WFT game they lost
Losing gave the Eagles pick 6, instead of dropping 3 spots down to 9.
Que Jimmy Hendrix, if 6 was 9.
Eagles trade pick 6 to Dolphins, to receive pick 12 and a 2022 first-round pick. (which turned into pick 15)
With pick 12 in the 2021 NFL Draft, the Eagles trade up with Dallas to pick 10 and select DeVonta Smith.
The Eagles trade picks 15 (from Dolphins) and other late-round picks, to Texans for pick 13.
With pick 13 the Eagles selected Jordan Davis.
There’s your reason if anyone ever wondered why a team could willingly lose a meaningless game.
The Eagle’s loss also affected 2 other teams. The NY Giants were eliminated from playoff contention and the WFT end as the 4th seed, hosting the Tampa Bay Bucs in the wild card round.
When Doug Pederson pulled Jalen Hurts for Nate Sudfeld in the fourth quarter, many NY Giants players (and their head coach) openly questioned the decision on social media.
But did the Eagles truly lose on purpose? Did they tank?
After being pulled, Jalen Hurts looked to be perplexed by the decision as well.
“I knew Nate’s worked hard all year, I think he’s a great player and Coach wanted to give him an opportunity at some point in the game. Me being a competitor, I talk about winning all the time, and that’s what I’m all about. I trust Coach with it. That’s all I can do.”
Even though then Eagles head coach Doug Pederson had decided that Sudfeld would play during the second half before the game (some players knew, as well as the media who were calling the televised game) a lot of people disagreed with his choice.
Some questioned whether Doug had been instructed by upper management to pull Hurts in an attempt to lose the game, but he ended that speculation after the game.
“That was my decision solely. Nate has obviously been here for four years, and I felt he deserved an opportunity to get some snaps.”
Not to mention, Hurts struggled all night in the passing game. In his 3 quarters of play, he threw for 72 yards with 7 completions on 20 attempts, and an interception. He wasn’t exactly throwing the ball around the yard that night. His value in that game was coming from his legs. He had run for 2 scores and 34 yards.
Whatever side you are on, (they lost on purpose or they didn’t) doesn’t matter anymore. I take Doug at his word in regards to rewarding Sudfeld with playing time.
That same weekend the Packers didn’t start Aaron Rodgers. The win or loss would not have affected their playoff status, but it did for other teams. The Pittsburgh Steelers gave Ben Roethlisberger the day off for a game they started with a chance to earn the AFC’s #2 playoff seed and perhaps knock a division rival out of the playoffs. Again, this wasn’t reported or discussed either. No problem. Nobody said much about either. They rarely do.
Why? Because these things happen all the time, especially in Week 17 of the NFL season. Many teams do not play their starters in these meaningless games because it can’t change their playoff seed, it’s not worth risking injury to star players, or (as Doug Pederson did) they reward players who busted their asses all year.
Not playing your starters and tanking isn’t the same thing. The players on the field try to win, suggesting otherwise is disingenuous. I don’t think you could say anyone on the Eagles tried to lose the game. The players on the field were putting forth their best efforts, it just wasn’t enough.
Trading Carson Wentz:
The Eagles traded Carson Wentz to the Indianapolis Colts for a 2021 third-round pick (84) and a conditional pick in 2022 that would either be Colt’s first-rounder or second-round pick dependent on if Wentz played over 70% of Indianapolis’ snaps in 2021. He did, and that resulted in the Eagles netting Colt’s first-round pick (16)
2021 Trades:
Eagles receive: Colts 2022 first-round pick (16) & 2021 third-round pick (84)
Colts receive: Carson Wentz
The results of that trade ended with the Eagles having DeVonta Smith, A.J Brown, Kyron Johnson, a 2023 first-round pick, and a 2024 second-round pick
Eagles receive: 2022 sixth-round pick (194)
Colts receive: Matt Pryor and a 2022 seventh-round pick
Eagles receive: 2021 first-round pick (10)
Cowboys receive: 2021 first-round pick (12), 2021 third-round pick (84)
Roseman packaged the Dolphins’ 2021 first-round pick and the Colts’ third-round pick to move up two spots and select DeVonta Smith (10)
2022 Draft & Trades:
Pre-draft weekend trade with the Saints
Eagles receive: 2022 first-round pick (18), 2022 third-round pick (101), 2022 seventh-round pick (237), 2023 first-round pick, 2024 second-rd pick
Saints receive: 2022 first-round pick (16), 2022 first-round pick (19), 2022 sixth-round pick (194)
1. Eagles traded picks 15, 124, 162, and 166 to the Texans for pick 13. With pick 15, the Eagles drafted Jordan Davis.
Roseman used his extra Day 3 picks to move up a few spots and draft Jordan Davis to man the middle of the Eagles’ defensive line.
2. Eagles traded picks 18 and 101 to the Titans for AJ Brown.
Howie used both 2022 picks he acquired from the Saints to trade for AJ Brown.
3. The Eagles use their pick, 51, to select Cam Jurgens.
4. The Eagles use their pick, 83, to select Nakobe Dean.
5. Eagles traded picks 188 and 237 to the Lions for pick 181. With that pick, the Eagles selected LB Kyron Johnson.
6. Eagles traded pick 154 to the Jaguars for picks 188 and 198 (Selected Grant Calcaterra with pick 198)
Conclusion:
Howie Roseman deserves a lot of credit for re-shaping the Eagles and opening a window to win in 2022.
The Eagles still have two first-round draft picks in 2023 and two second-round draft picks in 2024. A pretty amazing collection of resources is still at their disposal considering everything they have already accomplished.
Those future picks from the Saints could eventually make the Eagles a Super Bowl contender, especially if they are not needed to draft another QB in the first round.
The winds of change from the butterfly effect Doug Pederson created in January of 2021 will continue to be felt for years to come.
As always, Thank You for reading.
David
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