Eagles 2022 Horizontal Draft Board

Horizontal Draft Board
2 Round Mock
DLCBWRSOLTELBRBQBST
R1JORDAN DAVIS*
Jermaine Johnson1
George Karlaftis		TRENT MCDUFFIE
KAIIR ELAM
Andrew Booth*		JAMESON WILLIAMS*
GARRETT WILSON
Drake London
Treylon Burks
Chris Olave*		LEWIS CINE
DAXTON HILL		Charles Cross
Trevor Penning
ZION JOHNSON
Kenyon Green		Devin Lloyd1Desmond Ridder
R2LOGAN HALL*
PERRION WINFREY
Arnold Ebiketie*
Phidarian Mathis1
Josh Paschal
David Ojabo		CAM TAYLOR-BRITT
KYLER GORDON
SKYY MOORE
GEORGE PICKENS*
Jahan Dotson
Christian Watson
John Metchie
Khalil Shakir		Jalen Pitre*TYLER SMITH*Nakobe Dean
Quay Walker
CHAD MUMA
CHRISTIAN HARRIS* 		Breece HallMatt Corral*
Kenny Pickett
R3KINGSLEY ENAGBARE
Myjai Sanders
Alex Wright		Jalyn Armour-DavisJALEN TOLBERT
Alec Pierce		KERBY JOSEPH
BRYAN COOK
Jaquan Brisker*
DYLAN PARHAM
Cam Jurgens
Cole Strange1
Joshua Ezeudu
Jamaree Salyer		Trey McBride
CHARLIE KOLAR		Channing Tindall
Leo Chenal		Isaiah Spiller
Dameon Pierce
James Cook
R4NEIL FARRELL
Deangelo Malone*		CORDALE FLOTTJustyn Ross*
CALVIN AUSTIN
Erik Ezukanma		Tycen AndersonZACH TOM
Luke Goedeke1		Greg DulcichBRANDON SMITH*
Brian Asamoah
Jojo Domann1
Troy Anderson		RACHAAD WHITE
Brian Robinson
R5Matt HenningsenMartin Emerson
Mario Goodrich
Damarri Mathis		Velus Jones1Nick CrossAlec Lindstrom
MATT WALETZKO 		Jeremy Ruckert
Jelani Woods1
Cole Turner		KYRON JOHNSON
Jesse Luketa*
Jeremiah Gemmel		Hassan Haskins
KEAONTAY INGRAM		JORDAN STOUT
Matt Araiza
R6Michael ClemonsJoshua Williams
Damarion Williams		Tyquan ThorntonJean DelanceD’MARCO JACKSON
R7-PFAJayden Peevy
Noah Ellis		Decobie DurantTre TurnerJOEY BLOUNT
JT Woods		Devin Cochran
Austin Deculus		Jerrion Ealy
Kennedy Brooks		Jake Camarda

GREEN BOLDED are my target players considering positional priority and round
* players with confirmed Eagles top 30 visits
1 players 24 years old as rookies

Player Notes

Including notes on select players (priority Eagles players, players I am higher/lower on than others).

Wide Receiver:
R1 Favorites: Jameson Williams, Garrett Wilson, Jahan Dotson (later R1)
R2 Favorites: Skyy Moore
Later round favorites: Calvin Austin, Velus Jones (special teams), Tyquan Thornton

TP/G
(Rank)		YRR
(Rank)		YAC/RTYA
(Rank)		BMT
(Rank)
Jameson Williams2.7
(6)		3.5
(6)		9.5
(3)		5.33
(2)		0.16
(23)
Garrett Wilson3.5
(2)		3.2
(10)		6.1
(21)		0.41
(32)		0.29
(3)
Treylon Burks2.3
(13)		4.0
(1)		9.6
(2)		4.78
(4)		0.24
(8)
Jahan Dotson3.3
(3)		2.8
(21)		5.5
(25)		2.26
(12)		0.10
(36)
Chris Olave1.8
(23)		2.5
(31)		4.2
(37)		-1.09
(38)		0.05
(43)
Skyy Moore3.8
(1)		3.6
(5)		5.7
(25)		1.18
(23)		0.32
(2)
Khalil Shakir2.6
(8)		3.1
(12)		6.1
(21)		2.48
(11)		0.18
(18)
Calvin Austin2.3
(13)		3.2
(10)		7.2
(11)		1.62
(20)		0.18
(18)
Velus Jones1.3
(30)		3.1
(12)		8.4
(6)		1.14
(24)		0.34
(1)

Total Points per Game (TP/G) is similar to WAR and represents impact of a player on overall game.
Yards per route run (YRR) is a view on both performance and ability to get targeted in passing.
Target Yards Added (TYA) is a view on what a receiver adds to the offense compared to other receivers on the team.
Broken and Missed Tackles per route (BMT) is a view on how a receiver creates.

Tight End:
R3 Favorites: Charlie Kolar, Trey McBride
Later round favorites: Cole Turner

TP/G
(Rank)		YRR
(Rank)		YAC/RPassBB
(Rank)		RunBB
(Rank)
Trey McBride4.0
(1)		2.8
(3)		5.1
(14)		0%
(T1)		0.16
(23)
Charlie Kolar2.8
(4)		2.3
(5)		4.0
(21)		1.6%
(18)		0.29
(3)
Greg Dulcich2.4
(9)		2.0
(10)		7.0
(6)		1.9%
(21)		0.24
(8)
Jeremy Ruckert1.3
(21)		1.0
(21)		6.0
(9)		0.9%
(13)		0.10
(36)
Jelani Woods1.4
(19)		1.9
(11)		4.9
(17)		0%
(T1)		0.05
(43)
Cole Turner2.0
(12)		1.6
(17)		3.3
(24)		0%
(T1)		0.32
(2)

Total Points per Game (TP/G) is similar to WAR and represents impact of a player on overall game.
Yards per route run (YRR) is a view on both performance and ability to get targeted in passing.
YAC per reception (YAC/R)
Pass blown block percentage (PassBB) measures how often a block was blown in pass protection
Run blown block percentage (RunBB) measures how often a block was blown in run game
Broken and Missed Tackles per route (BMT) is a view on how a receiver creates.

Cornerback:
Outside if Sauce and Stingley (who I am not including because they will be gone by 15), I am less sure on the CBs than last year (Greg Newsome as a mid/late R1 pick).

R1 Favorites: Trent McDuffie
R2 Favorites: Kaiir Elam, Cam Taylor-Britt
R3 Favorites: Jalyn Armour-Davis (medicals)
Later round favorites: Cordale Flott

TP/G
(Rank)		EPA/Tgt
(Rank)		DC%
(Rank)		Man Y/S
(Rank)		Zone Y/S
(Rank)		RunD TP/G
(Rank)
Andrew Booth3.3
(18)		-0.04
(27)		69%
(14)		1.5
(27)		1.0
(20)		1.1
(26)
Trent McDuffie3.8
(12)		-0.45
(4)		73%
(25)		4.0
(21)		0.6
(T6)		2.1
(1)
Kaiir Elam2.46
(28)		-0.40
(6)		63%
(7)		0.8
(T9)		0.2
(T2)		1.3
(20)
Cam Taylor-Britt4.2
(7)		-0.11
(21)		65%
(9)		0.4
(3)		1.2
(26)		1.2
(23)
Kyler Gordon4.6
(4)		-0.19
(17)		68%
(12)		0.8
(T9)		0.6
(T6)		2.3
(1)
Cordale Flott2.6
(28)		-0.41
(5)		73%
(25)		1.1
(18)		0.2
(T2)		0.8
(35)
Damarion Williams2.5
(31)		-0.36
(7)		69%
(14)		0.7
(11)		0.8
(11)		1.4
(14)
Jalyn Armour-Davis3.9
(11)		74%
(28)		-0.22
(12)		1.0
(20)		1.0
(13)		0.6
(38)

Running Back:
Lower priority position, but would look for bigger backs as RB2 and in advance of Miles free agency.

R2 Favorites: Breece Hall
R3-4 Favorites: Dameon Pierce, Rachaad White, Brian Robinson
Later round favorites: Kennedy Brooks (off-field issues), Jerrion Ealy (smaller back, special teams value)

Rush TP/G
(Rank)		Pass TP/G
(Rank)		PosHAT
(Rank)		10 Yd Split
Time (Pct)		Elusive
Rating		B+MT
Per 100
Breece Hall3.3
(3)		1.0
(1)		20%
(14)		1.52
(9.51)		86.831
Isaiah Spiller2.4
(T11)		0.8
(T2)		11%
(31)		1.59
(6.65)		120.029
Dameon Pierce1.5
(17)		0.5
(T5)		31%
(2)		1.58
(7.28)		138.026
James Cook1.4
(18)		0.5
(T5)		21%
(13)		1.54
(9.09)		86.621
Rachaad White3.4
(3)		0.8
(T2)		28%
(3)		1.52
(9.51)		89.819
Brian Robinson3.6
(3)		0.5
(T5)		22%
(11)		1.53
(9.36)		92.427
Hassan Haskins2.4
(T11)		0.3
(14)		25%
(4)		n/a60.513
Jerrion Ealy2.1
(13)		0.5
(T5)		9%
(32)		1.55
(8.78)		131.429
Kennedy Brooks3.3
(5)		-0.3
(32)		24%
(7)		1.52
(9.51)		118.924

Draft Articles

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With 3 First Round Picks, the 2022 NFL Draft Takes Centerstage
Date: 01/20/22
If the Eagles get a call offering them DeShaun Watson or Russell Wilson, etc. Howie would listen. Read more
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A Promising, Auspicious Young Core?
Date: 11/23/21
Howie has done a really good job, recently, of signing these young core guys to team friendly extensions. Read more
php
Eagles 2022 Early Draft Need Preview, With Potential First Rounders
Date: 11/03/21
Read more
php
Hurts May Be What He Is... What Historical Data Shows on QB Development
Date: 10/26/21
Looking at historical QB data, when are QBs "what they are"? Past data shows QBs are largely what they are between 500 - 1,000 career pass attempts and it is "getting late early" for Hurts. Read more
php
What is Wrong (and Right) With the Eagles Defense
Date: 10/06/21
A lot has been made of the Eagles defense the past two games as it has been exposed. I look deeper into the data on what is going on in the run game and passing defense. And, a quick 2022 mock to fix it all... Read more
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What Went Wrong Against San Francisco and a Frustration-Induced Look at Draft Needs
Date: 09/20/21
What went wrong in the SF game. Some analytics on the game. Eagles positional needs. And a 2022 mock if you read that far. Read more
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10 College Corners to Follow This 2021 Season
Date: 09/14/21
YouTube is a beautiful thing. I watched the footage I could find on the corners listed below, and when available read and chatted with scouts who follow the teams and players. Read more
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Way Too Early Eagles 2022 Mock Draft
Date: 09/06/21
A way-too-early two-round mock draft for the Eagles that gives us some players to watch as the NCAA season begins. Read more
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The Eagles Offensive Line 2021 Outlook
Date: 07/16/21
The Eagles offensive line was historically injured in 2020 and a repeat of that would be a statistical surprise, so expect a dramatic improvement in 2021. But also a look at the long-term line, what to expect, and why continued investment is needed. Read more
php
The Analytics of the Eagles Draft Philosophy Series: Wide Receivers
Date: 06/16/21
A look at the Eagles well-known issues with drafting receivers. But to not rehash what everybody knows, this includes what metrics the Eagles need to look at evaluating receivers and why I am very bullish on 2021. Read more
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The Analytics of the Eagles Draft Philosophy Series: Linebackers
Date: 06/10/21
An analysis of the Eagles controversial draft philosophy on linebackers, where Howie has been vocal in de-prioritizing the position against others. Read more
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The Analytics of the Eagles Draft Philosophy Series: "The QB Factory"
Date: 06/04/21
An analysis of Howie's "quarterback factory" approach and what the data shows on chances of finding the QB that teams need. Also, a quick look at Howie's dealing of QBs. Read more
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The Analytics of the Eagles Draft Philosophy Series: The Trenches Part 2 - OL
Date: 05/24/21
The Eagles have not actually prioritized O-line in the draft, despite Howie's focus on the trenches. Long-term, elite starters have allowed them to focus elsewhere but investment is needed. Read more
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The Analytics of the Eagles Draft Philosophy Series: The Trenches Part 1 - DL
Date: 05/19/21
True to Howie's word, the Eagles do prioritize the trenches (on the D-line) and have also drafted very, very well, especially with their top picks. Read more
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The Analytics of the Eagles Draft Philosophy Series: CB
Date: 05/15/21
An analysis of the Eagles cornerback draft philosophy and performance using historical draft value data. In short, they are paying for trying to get by on the cheap. Read more
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An Eagles 2021 Draft Board and Post-Draft Analysis
Date: 04/29/21
My Eagles draft board, using priority positions and players likely to be targets based on prior team meetings and interest or testing numbers. Updated post draft with a quick analysis. Read more

With 3 First Round Picks, the 2022 NFL Draft Takes Centerstage

After the brutal way the Eagles were bounced from the playoffs, and the poor play from QB Jalen Hurts, fans will cry for a QB this offseason. I do not believe this to be an option. Philadelphia Eagles GM Howie Roseman indicated as much in the year end press conference on Jan 19,2022. That is not to say if their phone rings offering DeShaun Watson or Russell Wilson, etc, that they won’t listen. They would.

Despite fans wanting the DC to be fired (He might just be leaving the Eagles on his own accord).There is a reason Jonathan Gannon has four Head Coaching interviews lined up. He designed, what he believed to be, the best schemes to mask the deficiencies of the personnel. Obviously other franchises agreed. 

There needs to be an overhaul to most of the defensive positions. The needs are dire enough that two or all three of the first round picks should be used on the defensive side of the ball. Many rounds thereafter as well.

I am only listing the positions I believe the Eagles would draft in the first round. As such; OL (outside of C) TE, RB and ST are not going to be on here. The positions listed are Edge, C, LB, CB, S, WR, QB, and DT. They allocate 23 of the 32 first round selections.

First Round Grades:

Edge (6)

1- Kayvon Thibodeaux

2- Aidan Hutchinson

3- Trayvon Walker, more from Matt Alkire

Travon Walker – In-Depth Look – Jetro Lot
Yesterday, it happened. Travon Walker and Lewis Cine finally declared for the NFL Draft and many of us let out a sigh…jetrolot.com

4- Jermaine Johnson

5- George Karlaftis

6- David Ojabo

***If they draft 2 DE’s in the first couple rounds— Myjai Sanders (rd 2)

LB (2)

1- Nakobe Dean

2- Devin Lloyd

***If they pass on a 1st rd LB — Damone Clark (rd 2)

CB (5)

1- Derek Stingley Jr.

2- Kaiir Elam

3- Ahmad Gardner

4- Andrew Booth Jr

5- Trent McDuffie

***Sleeper- Roger McCreary (rd 2)

S (2)

1- Kyle Hamilton (would require trading up)

2- Daxton Hill

***Probable round 2 options — Lewis Cine and Jaquan Brisker

C (1)

1- Tyler Linderbaum

***Others of interest, Alec Lindstrom and Cam Jurgens (who has a little Jason Kelce in him when you watch him play) both possible 3rd rounders and James Empey (4th/5th)

WR (6)

1- Treylon Burks

2- Garrett Wilson

3- Jameson Williams

4- Chris Olave

5- Jahan Dotson

6- Drake London

**One of my favorite mid round wide outs, Erik Ezukanma (projected 3rd/4th round) Big bodied (6’3 220) pass catcher. Catches with his hands(like Quez)

DT (2)

1- Jordan Davis

2- Logan Hall

3- Devonte Wyatt

*DT Phidarian Mathis (possible 2nd rd) 6’4 315 could be another option. Would the Eagles draft a DT using a first or second round pick with Fletcher Cox, Hargrave and Milton Williams in the fold? If they wanted to wait until the second round Phidarian could come right in and play. He offers a pass rush from the middle as well.

QB (3)

1- Malik Willis has the strongest arm. He’s first. My favorite since August.

2- Carson Strong is right there with Willis, some may prefer his style of play.

3- Sam Howell, has a better arm than Pickett. After discussing Jalen Hurts’ arm strength all season, I would rather not have another QB on the team with that trait in question.

4- Kenny Pickett, see above. Known for his accuracy and football acumen. Small hands.

My first round, Eagles only, mock (assuming they use all 3 picks-which would surprise me. I expect one to get pushed into 2023 for QB-Hurts ins)

15- Tyler Linderbaum

16- David Ojabo (or another Edge that falls Karlaftis?)

19- Kaiir Elam

I hated not taking Dean in the first. But if Kaiir is still there pairing a corner with Slay was just too much to pass up. Nakobe Dean is the odd man out, but first at bat if any of the others are taken. Absolutely love him! Who knew having three first round picks would still cause such difficult decisions. Good luck Howie!

As always, Thank You for reading

Follow me @PHLEagleNews

David

1/20/2022

*I am not a scout. I have compiled my list by watching film (all 22 college), talking to scouts, and speaking with coaches and other team personnel. Texas Tech and Souhern Miss have both gone above and beyond any assistance I ever expected. I appreciate them both greatly. Most of the other schools that the players on this list attended also gave me more time than I deserve. If you school is on here, I Thank You for all of your assistance as well.*

A Promising, Auspicious Young Core?

All of these players are locked in, at least through the 2022 season.

Jalen Hurts – 23

Miles Sanders – 24

Kenneth Gainwell – 22

** Jordan Mailata – 24

Landon Dickerson – 23

Jack Anderson – 23 

Nate Herbig – 23

DeVonta Smith – 23

Quez Watkins – 23

** Dallas Goedert – 26

Tyree Jackson – 24

Jack Stoll – 23

** Josh Sweat – 24

Milton Williams – 22

** TJ Edwards – 25

Davion Taylor – 23

** Avonte Maddox – 25

** Howie has done a really good job, recently, of signing these young core guys to team friendly extensions.

More impressive, is the fact that all current 11 offensive starters are homegrown draft picks.

Looking at this, I think it becomes clear what positions need to be addressed in the upcoming 2022 NFL draft. The Eagles, under Howie Roseman, have always prioritized the lines. It would be surprising to see less than 2 of their 4 top 40 picks not being used on the OL and DE. The cornerback position needs to be addressed in the top 40 as well. Your pick of linebacker or safety would presumably be one of the 4 too. 

I have a fluid draft piece on the site where I update the top 32 prospects that I project to be round one talents.

Eagles 2022 Draft Needs and Potential First Rounders

But I am steadfast in the belief that the Eagles need to select 4 of these 5 positions (assuming they keep all 4 picks) with their first and second round draft capital.

DE

CB

S

OL

S

Eagles 2022 Early Draft Need Preview, With Potential First Rounders

I would like to preface this by saying, I can’t imagine the Eagles will actually use three first round picks in the 2022 NFL Draft. I would imagine they deal one (or more) away to a QB needy team to grab an extra second or third round pick in 2022, and push the first round selection(s) to 2023. Or, they trade multiple picks, including one or two of the three first rounders, to acquire an established QB. With that being stated, the needs and picks in this article will be based off what they have now, three first round picks.

The Eagles have many needs all over the defense, and unless they’re really in love with Kenny Pickett or Mailik Willis, having Hurts for another year is likely the best option. Acquiring an Edge, OL(C), LB, CB and or S with 3 of the first 4 picks would be a priority. DE Kayvon Thibodeaux and Aidan Hutchinson, S Kyle Hamilton, LB Nakobe Dean or Devin Lloyd and CB Kaiir Elam or Derek Stingley Jr are my top rated players to make that happen. I included QB in the article because anytime you draft this high you have to look at that position as a possible draft choice.

LB

Unfortunately the Eagles have rarely used a first round pick on a linebacker. The players currently projected to be first round picks are Utah’s Devin Lloyd , Alabama product Christian Harris and my current favorite, Nakobe Dean out of Georgia.

A few potential second round talents have emerged including Texas’ DeMarvion Overshown, Auburn’s Owen Pappoe , Brandon Smith out of Penn St and Florida’s Ventrell MIller.

Georgia captain Nakobe Dean: Bulldogs prioritize 'connection,' accountability to team
Nakobe Dean

OT

With an aging Center, and the Eagles seemingly wanting to keep Landon Dickerson as a LG next to Jordan Mailata on the end for the foreseeable future, they will be looking to draft another OL in the 2022 draft. And they should be.

Alabama Evan Neal, UCLA Sean Rhyan, Penn St Rasheed Walker, Miami (Fl) Zion Nelson Ohio ST,  Nicholas Petit- Frere, Charles Cross Mississippi St, Abraham Lucas Washinton St, Tyler Linderbaum

Nick Saban: Evan Neal has bright future for Crimson Tide
Evan Neal

S

The Eagles need to build a solid defensive backfield, Kyle Hamilton would do that immediately. If they don’t want to use a top 10 pick on a safety, below are some names to look into during the first 2 rounds.

Alabama Jordan Battle, Northwestern Brandon Joseph, Michigan’s Daxton Hill, Miami (FL) Bubba Bolden, Lewis Cine Georgia 

Notre Dame star safety Kyle Hamilton exits game vs. USC with leg injury, does not return - CBSSports.com
Kyle Hamilton

QB

Whether you are a Jalen Hurts guy or not, anytime you draft as high in the first round as the Eagles will be doing, you have to look at QB. All of the ones below will potentially be drafted in the first 2 rounds, the Eagles would only be looking into the ones ranked in the top ten.

Matt Corral Miss, Malik Willis Liberty, Sam Howell UNC, Kenny Pickett Pitt, Carson Strong out of Vegas  (Sadly, the name alone will turn half the fan base off)  Desmond Ridder Cincinnati 

Why Liberty's Malik Willis will be the Trey Lance of 2022 NFL Draft | Sporting News
Malik Willis

Edge

Much like OL, the Eagles need and will be looking into an Edge rusher. Four or five of these will be selected in round one.

Drake Jackson USC, George Karlaftis Purdue, Kayvon Thibodeaux Oregon, Jordan Davis Georgia, Aidan Hutchinson Michigan, Myjai Sanders Cincinnati, Zach Harrison Ohio St, Kingsely Enagbare SC, and Brenton Cox Florida

USC let Oregon freshman star Kayvon Thibodeaux slip away - Los Angeles Times
Kayvon Thibodeaux

CB

My favorite position, and the one the Eagles have seemingly most neglected with high draft capital. Luckily for them, 2022 will have four potential first rounders and absolutely need to use a first round selection on one of them.

Derek Stingley Jr LSU , Kaiir Elam Florida, Andrew Booth Jr Clemson , Ahmad Gardener Cincinnati , Trent McDuffie Washington, Mykael Wright Oregon, Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson TCU, Derion Kendrick Georgia, Josh Jobe Alabama

Mel Kiper is correct, Kaiir Elam is a top 10 player in the 2022 NFL Draft
Kaiir Elam

My very early first round list of 32 players(not in order) .

Edge Kayvon Thibodeaux

OT Evan Neal

S Kyle Hamilton

CB Derek Stingley Jr

WR Chris Olave

QB Malik Willis

Edge Aidan Hutchinson

S Brandon Joseph

DE David Ojabo

OT Sean Rhyan 

Edge Myjai Sanders

OT Charles Cross

CB Ahmad Gardner

LB Nakobe Dean

QB Sam Howell

S Jordan Battle

OT Nicholas Petit-Frere

LB Devin Lloyd

OT Rasheed Walker

QB Kenny Pickett

CB Kaiir Elam

Edge George Karlaftis

Edge Drake Jackson

CB Andrew Booth Jr

S Daxton Hill

C Tyler Linderbaum

WR Garrett Wilson

DL DeMarvin Leal

LB Christian Harris

Edge Zach Harrison

CB Trent McDuffie

DT Jordan Davis

I am not a scout nor would ever claim to be. I mainly watch film of corners and wideouts, but I have become dedicated to watching a lot more since the Eagles have 3 potential first round picks in the 2022 draft. Outside of cornerbacks, spending the amount of time it takes watching all of the potential first rounders will be as far as I go until the offseason. I will always keep talking to coaches, scouts and watching tape and release a new list early next offseason.

My current favorite at each position are pictured.

Let me know what you think

Follow me @PHLEagleNews

David

Hurts May Be What He Is… What Historical Data Shows on QB Development

As Yogi Berra said, “it’s getting late early” and if past data on QB development holds, it may be doing just that for Hurts…

I was optimistic on Jalen Hurts’ ability to correct his primary issue (accuracy / timing) because of his Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE) stats in college which usually translate well to the pros. And he has improved, from a second-worst -8.3 CPOE in 2020 to a middle-of-the-pack +0.8 CPOE in 2021. But 0.8 is not good, putting him 23rd out of 33 QBs this year. And more concerning is the lack of progression – he has actually been getting worse as the season has progressed:

I wrote recently on his struggles in the game’s highest volume passing depth, the short 1-10 yard routes. Hurts still only has 1 game in his career where his 1-10 yard CPOE was positive (week 4 vs. Kansas City). And the one area where he did well last year, the deep 20+ yard targets with a very good 15.4% 2020 CPOE, has also regressed, sitting at 2.11.

And his ability to create explosive plays, previously a strength, has regressed recently. Just counting total explosive passes and runs, Hurts is 5th in the league with QBs over 100 passing attempts but his garbage / non-garbage time splits have worsened through the year. Ignoring garbage time stats where win percentage is 90% or above, he drops to 22nd in the league in creating explosive plays with 17 of his 39 explosive passes coming in garbage time and 5 garbage time explosive passes in the Raiders game alone.

What historical data tells us about QB development

Credits to @ConorMcQ5 for the inspiration here as he looked at how a QB’s CPOE progressed through their college career and after how many passing attempts a QB’s CPOE centered around their end career CPOE.

I did the same for pro QBs below, looking at all QBs from 2010-2021 and the results are similar although it takes a bit longer for pro QB CPOE stats to stabilize (which is probably explained by the longer careers in the pros).

The first chart shows the difference between a QB’s CPOE at a specific career passing attempt vs. what their ultimate career CPOE ended up being. At the far left of the chart are the first career passing attempts for QBs with data points stretching from -40 to +40 and as the chart moves to the right, it reflect the same difference as they have more and more career passing attempts. As an example, if you took a data point that is +15 at career passing attempt 1, that means that QB, on their first career passing attempt, had a CPOE 15 points higher than what their career CPOE ended up being. Obviously, the spread of CPOEs is much higher early in careers but narrows around the axis as their career progresses.

But when do we know, for the most part, when a QB is what they are? The next chart looks at the average difference from a QB’s career CPOE at each career passing attempt. For example, the leftmost data point is right above 15 which means a QB’s first career passing attempt is averages +/- 15% from what their end career CPOE is.

What is instructive is how quickly a QB’s CPOE nears their career CPOE. At 250 career passing attempts, the average QB is +/- 2.5% off of their career CPOE, at 1,000 career passing attempts they are +/- 1% from their career CPOE.

Averages can be misleading and there are always outliers. The classic example is Josh Allen who had poor college and rookie year accuracy numbers but did what most don’t and became one of the most accurate passers the past two years, second in the league with a CPOE of 6.3. and his CPOE is still increasing after 1,750 career attempts. The last chart I will show provides context on this variability in the data:

The box in boxplots show the middle two quartiles, meaning 50% of all QBs are contained inside the box with 25% of QBs below the bottom of the box and 25% of QBs above the box. The whiskers, or end lines, show the min and max data that sits outside these middle two quartiles. Some takeaways:

  • At 500 career passing attempts, half of QBs are between +/- 1.76% and 2.04% of their career CPOE with the biggest outlier being 2.52%.
  • At 750 career passing attempts, there is very little variability with 50% of QBs between +/- 1.51% and 1.61% with the biggest outlier at only 1.68% off their career CPOE.

What does this mean for Hurts?

Hurts is currently at 390 career passing attempts with a career CPOE of -3.6%. Can he get better? Sure. But he has not shown development here and historical data says that by 500 attempts, it is very unlikely to materially improve his accuracy. Even assuming the maximum improvement we have seen in past data of 2.52%, adding this to where Hurts is today gets him near a 0% career CPOE. That’s just not good enough.

You have to be careful using averages as a rule as they aren’t. There are QBs that didn’t center around their career CPOE until near 1,000 career pass attempts (Kirk Cousins and Dak Prescott for example). But as time goes on, the probability of improving dramatically continues to drop.

Hurts adds value with his mobility and we knew he would improve over the 4.5 games he played in 2020, but the fear was that he would improve to be a middle-of-the-league QB, leaving the Eagles in quarterback purgatory. That is what looks highly likely right now, especially considering there really isn’t an upward trend.

That is where I am now.

There has been a lot of recent debate on if Hurts can even be evaluated this year given the failures of Sirianni and the playcalling. Can we judge wins (which aren’t a QB metric anyway)? No. Can we look at the Eagles offense’s ability to construct drives and score? Also probably no as the playcalling and penalties are a huge impact. But there is no reason we can’t look at the things Hurts needs to improve on – the timing routes, his accuracy on short routes, his ability to consistently see open receivers. He is failing at each of these and there is no upward trend which is reflected in the data at the beginning of the post.

What does this mean for the Eagles?

The Deshaun rumors are exhausting, but they aren’t created out of thin air. It is clear Lurie and Howie would trade for one of the top QBs, whether Deshaun or Aaron Rodgers or Howie’s white whale Russell Wilson, if they could. The issue is they probably can’t. It is known that Watson does not have Philly as one of the teams he would waive his no-trade clause for. Rodgers and Wilson will control where they go as well and the Eagles seriously have to wonder if they will be a desired location given the teams that will be in the hunt for QBs.

Pittsburgh, Miami, Carolina, Washington, Houston, Detroit, New Orleans, Atlanta, and Philly all could be aggressively going after QBs (and if Seattle and Green Bay lose Wilson and Rodgers, add them to the list). The 2022 QB class is widely viewed as a weak one with probably Malik Willis, Matt Corral, and Kenny Pickett as potential first round candidates with maybe Sam Howell and Carson Strong in the mix. But most view none of them in the same class as last year’s group. Somebody will rise and a couple will be drafted high given there will be very needy teams. But there will be much more demand for QBs in 2022 than there are good options.

What do I think the Eagles will do? They will without doubt aggressively go after Wilson and Watson with their potential three 1st round picks but as I said, I think the Eagles have a tough uphill battle to win either of them.

Will they love one of the QBs in the draft? Maybe, I wouldn’t be surprised if this was their Plan B and they have had scouts at recent Pitt and Ole Miss games. I’m a Corral guy currently but don’t have great conviction on him.

But another option could be to stick with Hurts or Minshew (or a yet-to-be-name QB from the factory) for another year if one of them shows some hope this season, trade down and grab another first in 2023 to give them optionality on the next group of QBs.

Even though I think the Eagles fall into QB purgatory, I would continue to play Hurts this year barring a total collapse. The go-forward options aren’t great and there is still time for Hurts to show improvement. The plan was to see what he was this season and we should stick to that as the Raiders loss effectively puts the Eagles out of the playoffs (Dallas, unless something bad happens, has a good path to at least 11 wins and the Eagles will be scratching to find 9 if they right the playcalling and system now).

My issue is what if Hurts shows up against Detroit and the Jets and the Giants (twice)? What do you know from that? He has to show up against the better teams and with the weaker part of the schedule ahead, that means the Chargers game gets circled in red. I really wanted to see more against the better teams to really feel good about him.

What is Wrong (and Right) With the Eagles Defense

I didn’t post last week after the Cowboys game because I don’t want to be over-reactionary on a bad game (and because I also had a few vacation days away). There is so much justified focus on the Eagles defense after the first 4 games and I wanted to look into it deeper.

In prior posts, I looked at each of the defensive units and made the following points:

  • The Eagles have invested in DL but I’ve been worried on their run defense for a while. Over the past 5 years, the Eagles run defense was rated between 10-19 in the league with a noticeable regression in 2020.
    (See “Analytics of the Eagles DL Draft History” for more detail)
  • The Eagles well known underinvestment in LB has shown when looking at LB value vs. defensive DVOA. But one thing often overlooked is a lot of the value in the Eagles run defense up until 2019 came from Malcolm Jenkins who was effectively a LB (and a very good one). Once he left, the LBs became more exposed and the run defense took a hit.
    (See “Analytics of the Eagles LB Draft History” for more detail)
  • Howie’s biggest draft issue is undervaluing corner which is absolutely a premium position today (second to only quarterback). Gannon has shown to improve secondaries in MIN and IND, but he also had more talent there.
    (See “What Can We Expect from Gannon’s Scheme” for mote detail)

We are almost a quarter of the way through the 2021 season but with a new coaching staff, a lot still can and will change, but I am less concerned with the game-to-game swings and more concerned with the underlying performance and talent. And not much so far in 2021 has changed my views. Here are my top thoughts on the Eagles defense:

Teams are exposing our personnel weaknesses in the run game

I always have to caveat when I talk about the run game as the broader analytics community would never run because rushes have lower expected value than passes and are, in aggregate, negative EPA. And this is true as you would much rather be good against the pass than the run. But the Eagles run defense has crossed the line to being a problem.

The Eagles are allowing a positive EPA on rushes
They are one of only 10 defenses actually allowing a positive EPA per play (0.006) on opposing team rushes. Yes, passes have even greater value, but it is rare to allow a positive EPA on rushes.

The Eagles are allowing a lot of explosive runs
They are 27th in the league in number of explosive rushes allowed with 11 through 4 games. They are tied with the 49ers and only the Chiefs, Raiders, Cardinals, Texans, and Jets have allowed more. (This post isn’t about their offensive play calling but I am sure nobody missed that the 49ers and Chiefs are worse than the Eagles here but we still refused to run against both…)

Teams are exploiting the Eagles scheme and personnel on the outside
The Eagles defense is seeing a much higher percentage of outside runs than the league average, with almost half of rushes against them being wide, and giving up 0.207 EPA per play on outside runs, ranked 26th in the league (for a defense, a lower EPA is better). As a point of reference, the league average EPA per pass is 0.192. Above I said the analytics community hates runs because they have negative EPA and always less value than passes but the Eagles are allowing more value on outside runs than the average league pass.

The Eagles are also 30th in the league with an average depth of tackle of 5.37 yards. While our EDGEs Barnett and Sweat are our top two highest graded run defenders with very good average depth of tackles (2.9 and 2.0 respectively) and you would think they are handling outside runs, the problem is our EDGEs aren’t volume run stoppers, recording a tackle on only 8 of 112 run defense snaps. But the Eagles are highest in the league for how many tackles their linebackers, safeties, and corners make at 75 of their 112 run defense snaps.

Part of this is scheme with our corners and safeties so deep, part is regression of Fletch, and part is weaknesses in our back seven. But so far this year our opponents are running outside of our defensive front and winning at it.

The pass defense is being dinked to death

Gannon’s defense is meant to take away explosive plays
Gannon has gotten a lot of criticism this week, some deserved as he has been slow or resistant to change and had some head-scratching personnel decisions, but, like Hurts, he needs to be given more time as the Eagles don’t have the personnel to do what he wants. Gannon’s defense prioritizes limiting explosive plays which is where most defenses are going and it is analytically correct. A single explosive play on a drive triples the chances of a score.

The second chart above in the run defense section shows that the Eagles are successful here so far – they are tied with Arizona for 2nd in the league in fewest explosive passes allowed, behind only Buffalo. This is what we want the defense to be.

But the point of limiting explosive plays is making long drives difficult which the Eagles are not doing
The Eagles are 29th in the league, allowing an average drive length of 8.9 plays, ahead of the Rams, Giants, and Football Team (when can we start calling them the Red Hogs?). Last year the Eagles defense was 7th best in the league in drive length allowed.

The Eagles opponents, whether by design or taking advantage of off-coverage, are living off of short passing. The Eagles force the 3rd lowest average depth of target in the league behind Buffalo and Tamp Bay, but are 29th in the league in EPA per pass play allowed (ahead of only Detroit and Jacksonville).

And the linebackers show up as an issue again
The Eagles linebackers are heavily targeted by opposing quarterbacks, rankings 31st in the league in number of targets and receptions allowed, 2nd most targets in the league.

Gannon caused an uproar on Tuesday when explaining why Eric Wilson was on Tyreek Hill last week he said they aren’t a dime defense “yet”. While most saw this as inflexibility, it may be him choosing Eric Wilson in coverage over Zech or Josiah Scott. Not playing dime makes no sense to me but those aren’t great choices and we have to assume Gannon knows Zech and Josiah’s readiness better than we do. I still think it is a mistake but it isn’t like he was sitting Jaire.

Looking at Gannon’s recent past in Indy, he has used dime but had odd personnel usages alternating between little to no dime to one of the higher in the league (data from FootballOutsiders). Gannon was not coordinator in MIN or IND so not sure how much control he had on the personnel usage though. And in Indy, he also had Darius Leonard:

  • 2020 (IND) – Last in the league, running dime 0% of the time
  • 2019 (IND) – 11th in the league, running dime 20% of the time
  • 2018 (IND) – 9th in the league usage of dime at 20%
  • 2017 (MIN) – 28th in the league at 0%

On the defensive side, Howie has only invested on the line and ignored everything else so Gannon has what he has to work with. Against Kansas City you saw an adjustment with Slay both traveling with Tyreek Hill after halftime and playing much more press (not sure why the game didn’t start this way). As bad as they have been these past few weeks, the Eagles defense is allowing fewer explosive plays and a lower EPA per pass play than last year. My biggest issue so far is there is little adjustment and less disguising looks.

And an updated 2022 mock!

If you have gotten this far, just a quick 3-round 2022 mock with where my current thinking is. These are extremely anti-Howie picks so not saying it is what will happen, it just is what should happen building on the above. For this I am using MockDraftDatabase’s simulator which gives the Eagles picks 4, 6, and 9 in the first. Just speculating, but if Howie has three higher firsts, I think he trades one of them down but for now I will go with what the simulator uses.

  • R1-4 CB Kaiir Elam – I will believe Howie takes a corner high when I see it, but corner remains the Eagles biggest go-forward need as both Slay and Nelson are likely gone by 2023. I don’t care about the Eagles league-leading zone usage – Kaiir leads college football in press snaps and has allowed no completions in press coverage.
  • R1-6 S Kyle Hamilton – Another one Howie would never do but Gannon’s defense needs playmakers and the Eagles only have one actual safety right now in McLeod who is a free agent after this year. Kyle is bonkers good and would be somebody that could be moved all over on defense.
  • R1-9 EDGE Aidan Hutchinson – Finally a Howie pick… I considered an offensive linemen here as that is a need, but Aidan is an amazing disruptor and has been unblockable this year at Michigan. Barnett will be gone this year and replenishing the line is a need.
  • R2-40 LB Devin Lloyd – I really wanted to take a linemen here but thought I couldn’t write a thousand words on why the LBs are awful and not take Lloyd here. The Eagles have a ton of “potentials” at LB and I have hope that Davion can become a solid LB, but even if he does emerge, they need another LB.
  • R3-71 OL Jamaree Salyer – Much later than I wanted an offensive linemen, but Georgia’s current LT can play across the line but is probably a guard in the NFL. He has not allowed a sack in 615 dropbacks across 4 years.

A very defense and secondary heavy draft (if I mocked more rounds, I would have a second corner in there). There are plenty of needs and you can argue the ordering or picks, but investing in the back 7 is what needs to happen. Howie’s philosophy of investing in the DL and de-prioritizing everything behind it is exactly wrong. Good pass coverage has a higher correlation to better defensive EPA allowed than a good pass rush does (analysis from Eric Eager and George Chahrouri here) which is so counter-intuitive to the Eagles way. Sure, a pass rush is great and is needed, but offenses are scheming around quick pressure and, as shown above, forcing short throws isn’t really working for the Eagles so far.

What Went Wrong Against San Francisco and a Frustration-Induced Look at Draft Needs

Warning: This post will cover a lot of ground, probably should be two posts, and is probably a written-too-close-to-the-end-of-the-game frustration-fueled post.

I came into this year saying I would enjoy the season regardless of record. I thought the Eagles would be better than consensus (I still do) but it is a “transition” year no matter what. And we have a ton of draft capital in 2022 that make this a really interesting year regardless of record. But the loss to SF was frustrating because of how the game went.

  • In my preview I said the Eagles should have an advantage vs. their banged up secondary and that didn’t happen. I was impressed with Deommodore who seemed to always be near the catch point but our WRs didn’t seem to be getting open.
  • I also said the Eagles should have turnover opportunities on Garoppolo and they dropped two interceptions (along with a missed fumble recovery). Can’t do that.
  • They did the little things wrong. Zech messing up the punt downing and sliding into the endzone. Barnett’s penalty. Harris’ PI in the endzone that wasn’t going to be complete anyway. And on and on.
  • Bad play calling. Awful set of plays after the Quez deep pass that came away with nothing. But it was way more than that. I am more in favor of the run than the general analytics community but we ran way too much, especially with their secondary. Defense did not disguise and shift.
  • And injuries always come, but frustrating to see Brooks out again and BG go down. Graham is out for the season and we will wait to hear on Brooks, but he could be as well.

SF is a much better team than ATL and, on paper, looked very similar to the Eagles. But they ran an efficient offense, both on the ground and with screen-pass after screen-pass. They did what they needed to and just played better.

I won’t pull too many stats as little of it is instructive or surprising. But here are a few:

  • Hurts was 6th in the league in Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE) in week 1 at +11.6 and fell all the way to 26th this week (not counting tonight’s game) with a -7.97 CPOE. He has to be much better here.
  • Hurts missed some short passes but where he really struggled was on deep balls – below shows Hurts vs. the League on CPOE by depth of target. Hurts is the orange dots and the league is blue, where Hurts is above the blue markers, he was better than the league and where below, worse. The one high orange marker was the Quez pass. I have defended Hurts but it doesn’t take a re-watch to know his deep balls yesterday were almost all short and looked like “wtf, let’s just chuck it up” passes.
  • The Eagles “won” the explosive play battle with 3 runs and 2 passes to SF’s 1 run and 2 passes, but all 3 runs were Hurts scrambling along with the two passes to Quez. Again, why were we running so much?
  • For the second week in a row, our safeties graded poorly, with nobody over 62.0 and allowing over a 100 passer rating (more on that later).
  • If you felt that SF just threw short passes and screen’s, you aren’t wrong. But a lot of people viewed this as “they didn’t do anything, we beat ourselves”. No, Garoppolo played smart and they took advantage of our coverage scheme. Below is Garoppolo’s EPA by depth of target – first, he didn’t throw anything deep, second, he was above league average on everything 20 yards or less.
  • I was impressed with SF’s Deommodore Lenoir during the game and was waiting to see how he graded – he was the top corner in the game at 82.1 on 11 targets! K’Wuan Williams wasn’t great and Josh Norman was awful but we only targeted them four times (counting Norman’s 2 PIs) – how does this make sense?
  • The Eagles DL actually graded pretty poorly with only Hargrave and Sweat grading decent. Run defense again was a problem.

But speaking of our draft capital, Indy and Miami both lost, although shockingly Wentz left the game with a knee injury. Think we will be wondering if that is a 1st or 2nd most of the year.

2022 Draft Needs

Which brings me to updated thoughts on the 2022 draft for the Eagles. I don’t think most people this time of year want to be reading on a draft that is still 7 months away but if you are still reading, thanks. But two reasons. First, I write this more for myself on what college games and players to watch. Second, it is a back-door way to get my friend Matt Alkire (@mattalkire) to read mocks (haha – but seriously, he has great year-round prospect coverage and has turned me on to a few of the players below).

So much will change between now and April, but I think one thing that won’t is what the Eagles priority needs are. And most of these won’t change based on how the team plays this year – a lot of our needs are created because of player age and contracts.

My draft priorities in order are:

1. Another offensive linemen
Even if Brooks is not done for the year, his cap hit almost triples from $7M this year to around $19M a year through 2024 – the Eagles will need to make a hard decision here and move on. And maybe Kelce surprises us and comes back, but he likely retires. The Eagles need a center/guard now and will need to think about an eventual RT replacement, but the good thing is Howie prioritizes the lines so we will probably be aligned here.

2. Two corners, one of them has to be taken high
Nelson is on a one year and the Eagles will have the cap space to bring him back but he will either get much more expensive or regress. I doubt the Eagles move on from Slay in 2022 because they need him and there is $7.5M of dead cap next year, but he’s probably not here in 2023. Corners are almost never ready their rookie season and it is well past time we invest there. We will see what Howie does here as he has never viewed CB worthy of high picks.

3. Defensive line, anywhere but need another disrupter
Think they could go DT or Edge, Edge will be a bigger need next year and is a deeper class in 2022. Barnett won’t be extended, Milton can play inside or out, maybe Tarron develops but he’s a late round guy, BG will be coming back from injury.

4. A safety that can cover
I’ve not focused enough on safety but it is a huge need. Who knows how long McLeod will continue to play or play well and he’s only signed through 2022. Harris is only signed this year and has regressed. K’Von has a role but isn’t the cover guy we need. The safety group isn’t good in a time when the importance of safeties is growing.

5. A linebacker
This could go higher but we need to see what we have with all of the young guys here in Davion, Shaun Bradley, Patrick Johnson, and JaCoby Stevens (I know he’s on the practice squad but I will retain some hope there just because of his athletic profile). Eric Wilson is on a one-year and is a liability against the run.

6. Another wide receiver
Not something I would invest in high unless the value is just really something they couldn’t pass on, but think of this as getting another WR that replaces Ward or JJAW.

I’m leaving QB off here because I believe Hurts will be good, but this is what throws the entire thing out if the Eagles need to get a QB. I wouldn’t draft a TE – assuming Ertz or Goedert will be here (but not both) and they will see what Tyree Jackson is this year. Same with RB unless it is a late round flyer.

Mock

I used PFN’s simulator for a 5-round mock and, with Caron’s latest injury, assumed we have Indy’s 2nd rounder. PFN has the Eagles own pick being the 7th pick in each round which I think is too high, but what the heck I left it.

R1-7: Kenyon Green, OG Texas A&M
There is near zero percent chance I don’t take Green or Linderbaum with one of these top picks. Mailata, Seumalo, Dickerson, Lane and one of these two goes a long way to setting up the Eagles OL for the future.
Other options: C Tyler Linderbaum, CB Kaiir Elam, CB Andrew Booth, DT DeMarvin Leal

R1-19: Trent McDuffie, CB Washington
The more I’ve watched the top CBs, the more and more I like McDuffie. All of Stingley, Elam, and Booth were all gone by the 19th pick but McDuffie is ridiculously athletic and may be the most complete corner in the draft. While we probably all have PTSD on Washington corners, McDuffie is different – he’s highly athletic, allowing a 39.6 passer rating this year. At 5’11”, he may drop some as the league wants taller corners.
Other options: EDGE Zach Harrison, S Brandon Joseph

R2-39: Adam Anderson, EDGE Georgia
Crazy fast and has been the most disruptive player on the UGA defense, generating pressures on 25% of his snaps. A bit light at 230 lbs but would be a needed addition with speed on the edge for the Eagles.
Other options: LB Devin Lloyd (went 1 pick before me and a player I would love to have), EDGE Nik Bonitto, WR John Metchie

R2-52: Lewis Cine, S Georgia
Back-to-back from UGA to take a hard-hitting free safety that can do it all. Cine’s projections are all over the board, anywhere from being picked in the 40s to low 100s. He is consistently graded high across coverage, run defense, and tackling.
Other options: EDGE Kingsley Enagbare, DT Jordan Davis

R3-71: Thayer Munford, OT Ohio State
This would be a longer-term pick. Played both LT and LG and gives the Eagles some depth. Driscoll showed some potential but has been hurt constantly and they are cross-training Dillard but nobody can count of that to work out. The only other tackle on their depth chart behind Lane and Jordan is Brett Toth. Munford is the highest graded tackle vs. Power 5 defenses.
Other options: CB Josh Jobe, WR Jalen Tolbert

R4-107: Jermaine Waller, CB Virginia Tech
A longer corner at 6’1″ with ball skills, he had a very good 2019 playing opposite Caleb Farley and a down 2020 due to injuries. He has the athleticism and size, but needs to show it in 2021 and is off to a good start – 3 interceptions and a 64.7 passer rating allowed in 3 games this year. If he continues to have a strong season, he will most likely move up given his size.

R5-139: Reggie Roberson, WR SMU
At this point of the draft, the chance of getting a starter is pretty low and it’s best to look for draft inefficiencies. Roberson’s injury history has knocked him down a lot from where he would likely be looked at. He does not look to be fully back this year yet but he has a lot going for him – good speed, good release especially at this point in the draft, and had production with over 20 yards per reception last year and 5 touchdowns in only 22 receptions before getting injured. With Smith, Reagor, and Quez, somebody like Roberson would not be needed to immediately perform.

Take this for what it’s worth and I’ll change my picks a hundred times, but these are the positions and players I’m watching this college season.

10 College Corners to Follow This 2021 Season

YouTube is a beautiful thing. I watched the footage I could find on the corners listed below, and when available read and chatted with scouts who follow the teams and players.

Derek Stingley Jr. He is the best corner in college. Injuries slowed him some last season, but thats the only thing that did. He had an elite PFF coverage grade. Stingley Jr is the top of the 2022 draft class. He is 6’1, approx 200 lbs, ran a 4.3 forty and had a 42 inch vertical. Impressive stats. Top ten first round talent.

3 things to know about Clemson football's Andrew Booth Jr.

Andrew Booth Jr. Not a lot of footage as he was a rotational player his first two seasons with Clemson. He has good size at 6 feet 195 lbs. Has seemed to be good at playing at the ball. He just needs to keep improving while playing full time.

2019 Florida Gators Football Profile Card: Kaiir Elam

Kaiir Elam At 6’2 200 lbs he is tall, tough, might be my favorite CB prospect in the upcoming draft. Loads of potential. Physical corner that leads to some bursts that get by him. That is not anything that coaching will not correct. He is one to watch this year at Florida.

Washington football's top out of state targets for 2022

Trent McDuffie More of a scheme fit corner- zone, avg size, built solid, good vertical leap, and he might be best tackler in class. He also might be a future safety. Not a lot of tape of defending the pass as he only had 4 passes defensed the last two seasons.

Quacking the Roster: #2 CB Mykael Wright - Addicted To Quack

Mykael Wright Really good ball skills, needs to add muscle and weight. He checks in at 5’11 and roughly 180 lbs, but has proven to be very good at pass break ups. He has shown great body control. Mykael also returns kicks. With a good season, he will find himself on an NFL roster next season as a starting CB and special teams player.

Steelers 2022 NFL Draft Preview: Cincinnati CB Ahmad Gardner - Behind the Steel Curtain

Ahmad Gardner Mainly plays press corner ,and has been very good doing it. per PFF 87.6 grade (6th) 90.0 coverage grade (7th) 0 TDs & 39.4 passer rating allowed (4th) Ahmad checks in at 6’2 and has a sturdy frame. He reportedly is even stronger this season.

Before he won a national championship at Alabama, Josh Jobe turned heads at Cheshire Academy - Hartford Courant

Josh Jobe Was up and down playing opposite Patrick Surtain II last season, and was targeted a lot. He was flagged too many times as he led all corners in the nation with 11 penalties, six of those in the final three games. Despite the penalties Jobe still had 11 pass break ups and per PFF was sixth in the country allowing only one reception every twenty coverage snaps. He defends the run well, reads plays well, hits hard and is a very good tackler. If he gets his emotions under control this season, his play (already good) will be very good and he will be talked about as one of the top corners in the country by seasons end.

Roger McCreary returning for senior season - The Auburn Plainsman

Roger McCreary He has been very good at Auburn, but they are changing their defensive scheme this year so he will be tested to play more off man coverages. Roger has shown great instincts so far into his collegiate career and I expect him to keep that up this year and end up being a top round 2 pick in 2022.

Now healthy, TCU CB Noah Daniels is playing with confidence

Noah Daniels His biggest issue is heath. Has great size and skills when he plays but missed 2019 and only played four game is 2020 due to a torn ACL. Big wild card heading into season with huge potential.

Ohio State football: Can Sevyn Banks match expectations?

Sevyn Banks Like Stingley, Sevyn is a stout 6’1 200 lb very physical corner. He has given up a lot of plays with his aggressive style, in 8 games last season he was targeted 53 times and gave up 31 receptions for 440 yards(per college PFF),but he could take a big step forward this season as he gains more experience. Another sleeper prospect.

David

Thank You for reading

Follow me @PHLEaglenews

Way Too Early Eagles 2022 Mock Draft

With the start of college football and before I get my Christmas decorations out (joke), I took a quick look at some players that should interest the Eagles. This post builds on a few prior posts:

  • I set the draft order using my recent NFC and AFC win predictions, giving the Eagles picks #14, 16, and 17 in the first round and #48 in the second round if the Indy pick promotes.
  • I had an analysis of the Eagles draft series earlier in the summer where I looked at the Eagles history on different positions and what they should be prioritizing moving forward.

I used PFF’s draft simulator as it allows setting the draft order and their player rankings are as good (or no worse) than other simulators at this point:

Round 1-14: Kenyon Green, OL Texas A&M

Using Indy’s round 1 pick, the Eagles take offensive linemen Kenyon Green. Kenyon is a 6’4″ 325lb linemen who has played both guard spots and is now playing right tackle, perfectly fitting into the Eagles desire for flexibility on the line (although he is still probably a guard in the NFL). Viewed as the most athletic linemen in the draft, he was the NCAA’s highest graded linemen in week 1 of the 2021 season at 89.5 (albeit against Kent State) after a 75.0 grade in his sophomore 2020 season. Pass protection is his improvement area, only having. 63.0 pass blocking grade last year, although he is better here than some think – in 327 passing snaps last year, he allowed zero sacks. Highly mobile and known as a finisher, it is exciting watching this clip to think about Green playing next to Landon Dickerson next year.

Interior OL is a priority for the Eagles as they desperately need to prepare for the post Kelce/Brooks/Lane era (more in depth post on the Eagles OL draft strategy and needs here). Drafting Landon last year is a great start and gives the Eagles an option to go after a guard or center in 2022. But as I described in the OL draft post, the Eagles have an OL that will be somewhere in the bottom 10-12 in the league if the future is Mailata, Seumalo, Dickerson, Herbig, Driscoll. In 2022, I am assuming Brooks will be on the team although the Eagles reportedly tried to trade him this offseason as he is 32 and has large cap hits coming up. But even if Brooks is on the team in 2022, you play Green at LG – on a good team, Seumalo is depth and not a starter and while Herbig had a good 2020 in limited action, it is a lot to believe he is a good starter (and he had a poor preseason this year).

I was a little worried if Green would be available at 14, but in the last 15 years of drafts, only 2 times has the first IOL been taken before 14 – Quenton Nelson at 6 in 2018 and Jonathan Cooper at 7 in 2013 (Alijah Vera-Tucker was taken at 14 this year).

Other options: Center Tyler Linderbaum

Round 1-16: Ahmad Gardner, CB Cincinnati

With three picks in four draft spots (14, 16, 17), the ordering of the players isn’t as important. As I’ve written many times, corner is the Eagles most dire need, even though they are in good shape for the 2021 season. Steven Nelson is on a one-year deal and could be re-signed, but if he plays really well he will be expensive. Slay has regressed some the past two seasons and has a $22M cap hit next year – given his age, Howie can’t keep kicking the can down the road with cap manipulations and it is not crazy that the Eagles move on from Slay after this season. They took Zech McPhearson this year, but he could be the top CB on the team next season.

Ahmad Gardner is a 6’2″ corner with good explosiveness that excels in press coverage, he had a 90.0 coverage grade last year and allowed a 35.3 passer rating in college (as a reminder, a QB spiking the ball all game would give a passer rating of 39.6). Impressive stats aside, I’d like to see him against better offenses and WRs as he missed last year’s bowl game against UGA. This year he will go up against Tyler Sneed (East Carolina) and Ty Fryfogle (Indiana), decent but not elite receivers.

I’ve seen some draw comparisons to one of this year’s draft crushes Jaycee Horn because of his aggressiveness, ability in press, and grabby-ness at times. Here’s a clip from Matt Alkire showing his aggressiveness:

And a clip showing his closing speed:

Round 1-17: Andrew Booth, CB Clemson

The 2022 draft class is expected to be loaded at corner and this is the year for the Eagles to repeat 2002 and double up on secondary. With their third first round pick, I’ll take Clemson’s Andrew Booth to pair with Gardner as the Eagles (hopeful) outside corners of the future. At 6’0″ 195 lbs, he isn’t the tallest corner but his athleticism and ball skills shine. In 192 coverage snaps in 2020, he allowed a 59.6 passer rating and earned a 74.7 coverage grade. The knock on Booth is just his limited playing time with only four starts in two years. I think when the draft actually gets here, it may be unlikely Booth is there in the middle of the 1st as corners have been a premium and heavily drafted position the past couple of years (the 1st averages over 5 corners taken).

And in week 1 against Georgia, he displayed his tackling skills:

Other options at 16 & 17: WR Chris Olave (heck, draft a 1st round WR every year), DT Jordan Davis, CB Trent McDuffie, S Brandon Joseph, EDGE/OLB Adam Anderson

Round 2-48: Jermayne Lole, DT Arizona State

Most have the Eagles bigger need as defensive end and it could be depending on what they do with Derek Barnett and Josh Sweat after this season. But with BG, Sweat, and Milton Williams who can play inside or outside, I think DT is an underrated need for the Eagles. Fletch is getting up there and Hargrave is signed for a couple more years, but depth is thin behind them. Tuipulotu made the roster and hopefully can develop but is my biggest draft disappointment.

UGA’s DT Jordan Davis and USC’s DE Drake Jackson were two players I was looking for at 48 but both were already gone. Lole is a 6’1″ 310 pound DT that moves better than somebody his size should. He was good for a 85.9 defensive grade last year, 20th in the nation. The Eagles have an underrated need to improve against the run and Lole graded in the top 10 run defenders last year. But he can also push the pocket and produces against the pass – in only four games last year, he had 18 pressures to go with his 17 stops.

Other options at 48: LB Devin Lloyd, DT Travis Jones

The Eagles Offensive Line 2021 Outlook

First, I want to give credits to two sources for this article (and generally great resources all around):

  • The Michigan Football Analytics Society, one of my favorite sites right now as they have all-around amazing stuff: “The Interesting Case of Adjusted Games Lost”
  • Football Outsiders which is the source for the Adjusted Games Lost data: “2020 Adjusted Games Lost”

If you have read my prior articles, you know a few key points I have made on the Eagles offensive line:

  • Howie claims to invest in the trenches but in his tenure it has been true for the defensive line only – the Eagles are 26th in the league in draft capital spent on the offensive line vs. 7th for the defensive line.
  • From 2010-2020, they only made four day 1 and day 2 picks on the OL with the fireman being a huge miss and Dillard being a big question still.
  • Their draft failures and lack of investment in the OL have aged the line and left them with poor depth.

There are a few often-repeated statements on the Eagles that I absolutely hate, one of them is that “the Eagles have a top 5 line IF they stay healthy”. The reason I hate it isn’t because it is untrue, but because it seems to ignore or excuse the lack of investment in the offensive line. (Another OL-related view I hate is “you can find offensive linemen / centers late in the draft like Kelce” which is true if you like 1 out of 425 odds which is what the Kelce pick amounts to regarding his value vs. draft position).

Heading into the 2021 season, I believe two things on the offensive line:

  1. The OL will be better because it would be almost a statistical impossibility to be as injured as it was last year.
  2. The OL needs to a be priority in the upcoming drafts to return to “great” as they don’t have the players needed post Kelce/Brooks/Lane.

The Eagles line can’t be as injured again…

Above I mentioned the work that The Michigan Football Analytics Society has done and they showed that the correlation of age and injury is not strong. It makes intuitive sense that older players get injured more but it doesn’t actually show up in the data that way. So, the Eagles line is old but that doesn’t totally explain 2020’s injuries and isn’t a good predictor of 2021.

Below shows the Eagles Adjusted Games Lost due to injury (AGL) for just the offensive line over the past five years. The total games are shown and then separated into games lost by OL starters and backups.

YearTotal OL AGLOL Starter AGLOL Backup AGL
2020714823
201925916
2018844
201715150
20161394

The number of OL combinations (14 in 16 weeks) the Eagles had to use in 2020 is well known. But to put numbers to the OL injuries, in 2020 the Eagles:

  • Lost 60% of total OL starter games to injury – their intended starting OL lost 48 games out of a total 80 “starter games” (5 linemen * 16 games or 80 total starter games).
  • They lost another 23 games from backup linemen.

This means for an average game in 2020, the Eagles played with 3 backups on the line and of those backups, 1.4 were third-string or lower.

Below shows the total AGL for every team over the past 5 seasons (blue dots) with the Eagles AGL highlighted (green dots) with the average games lost due to injury per team between 70-80 games per season (grey line). The Eagles OL games lost due to injury is also added (green line).

NFL AGL with Eagles OL AGL highlighted

With 71 games lost to injury in 2020, the Eagles OL by itself would have been 20th in the league in games lost due to injury, between IND (72.9 games lost) and MIA (65.7), and not much lower than the average games lost across the league at 83.

This just can’t repeat.

Or, more technically, 2020’s level of injuries are an outlier and the chances of this repeating are exceedingly low and we should expect a reversion to the mean. Could there be something driving this that isn’t just randomness? Sure, the medical staff, poor training and conditioning programs, the individual players genetics, the curse of building taller than William Penn returning. But it is really probably just ridiculously bad luck.

Do I expect the line to be totally healthy this year? Who knows, but most likely not. I do think their depth is better – Herbig graded out very good in run and pass blocking, Driscoll was thrown in as a rookie and performed well including a memorable game against Chase Young, and Landon will be great (although we will see how much he plays and when). And I trust that their use of depth will be better – no longer is JP around and blindingly obvious to everybody except the Eagles that he was done.

But the line still needs to be invested in…

Below shows the total OL value measured in Approximate Value (AV) for every team since 2010, with the Eagles highlighted in green. The average value for offensive lines is the grey line and generally around 43 AV per season. The Eagles have been consistently above 50 AV and in the top 5 of the league except for 2012, 2015, and last year.

Offensive line value by season

Assuming a return to relatively normal health,the Eagles offensive line should be better than average in 2021. Based on historical AV by starter and assuming another step up in improvement for Mailata as he has more experience, a rough projection would have the Eagles offensive line in the 43-46 AV range:

LTLGCRGRT
Mailata
6-7AV		Seumalo
6-7AV		Kelce
12AV		Brooks
10AV		Johnson
9-10AV

The issue is post the Kelce/Brooks/Lane period, the Eagles don’t have the players needed to return to a great line. So much could change, free agents could be signed and players could surprise, but looking at historical comparables gives you a view on what could be expected. Making the following assumptions…

  • Mailata continues to improve and is close, but not equal to, Lane
  • Landon Dickerson becomes a top 5-7 center
  • Seumalo largely remains what he has been
  • Herbig and Driscoll are solid but unremarkable borderline starters

…you get a future Eagles line between 33-42 AV which is a significant drop from what they have been used to. You just don’t easily replace Kelce/Brooks/Lane.

LTLGCRGRT
Mailata
8-9AV		Seumalo
6-8AV		Dickerson
9-11AV		Herbig
5-7AV		Driscoll
5-7AV

Maybe Herbig and Driscoll exceed expectations but one is an UDFA and the other is a 4th rounder. Maybe Seumalo has another step up in him but he is 27 and has been very consistent in output. Maybe Herbig who had top 10 grades over the last four games last year really is another undrafted find and elevates to a solid starter. Maybe Dillard succeeds and Mailata moves to RT (I think of all positive scenarios this is the most likely). I’m already assuming Dickerson stays healthy and is a top center which has some risk. But it is unlikely that all of the upside across the line here pans out which is what would be needed to get close to what the Eagles have been over the past 5 years.

The Eagles will need another elite starter along the line. In my prior post on the offensive line draft history and philosophy, I said the Eagles will need to draft a tackle or guard (or both) upcoming. If you do not follow Matthew Alkire, you should – he has the earliest and best view on 2022 draft prospects and think he nails it with his vision for the Eagles below, pointing at prospects like Kenyon Green and Tyler Linderbaum as long-term, potential elite linemen.

Defining a future line using any metric like AV is an oversimplified view and as I have said before, the line is the position that is more the sum than its individual parts. But clearly the Eagles do not have a line of the future at this point. So, expect a noticeable improvement this year but we need to invest in upcoming drafts at guard and tackle.

The Analytics of the Eagles Draft Philosophy Series: Wide Receivers

I had two big issues getting to this analysis:

First, I hate writing about widely known things like the Eagles being bad at drafting wide receivers because everybody knows it already. Making this hopefully interesting is a bit tougher than other positions.

Second, beyond “Howie has been bad at drafting WRs”, my ultimate point that the Eagles actually overdraft wide receivers relative to other positions will make me look like a hypocrite with DeVonta this year. I love the DeVonta pick despite publicly wanting a CB for months as I never expected him to be there when the Eagles picked. I am more bullish on his rookie season than most as I wrote in the post below:

DeVonta Smith Will Hit the “Over” on Everything

The Eagles have wasted pick after pick on receivers and I hope to show why they were wrong based on stats, not just say “they shoulda drafted DK”. But on to the analysis…

The Eagles draft history of wide receivers

These first few charts show what every Eagles fan already knows. This first chart shows how much draft capital each team has spent on WRs over the 2010-2021 period, with the Eagles being the team that spent the 6th highest amount of draft capital on WRs.

But when you look at the player value returned from the draft, the Eagles drop to 24th in the league.

Combining these two charts into a quadrant of draft investment vs. value, the Eagles are one of the worst in the league, sitting there with the Jets and Browns and Texans. As an aside, Houston was a surprising one to me here given they got Deandre Hopkins and Will Fuller, but their ten other WR picks have provided almost no value, generating 20 combined career AV. As a comparison, Riley Cooper generated 18 AV total in his six seasons. So the Texans used ten picks to make one Riley Cooper…

The Steelers have clearly been the best or luckiest or both in the league, getting Juju Smith-Schuster and Chase Claypool in the 2nd round, Emmanuel Sanders in the 3rd (although he played his best years in Denver), and Antonio Brown famously in the 6th. They are doing things right and when I get to what matters for receivers below, their picks make more sense.

Looking at the Eagles individual WR picks, only one has exceeded their expected draft position value – friggin Riley Cooper. Reagor, Hightower, and Quez all have so much of their careers left and I would expect at least Reagor and Quez to move up on this list and provide good value. And DeVonta could turn the entire picture around if he lives up to what I think he could.

What should the Eagles change with their WR draft philosophy?

Draft better.

It’s just not more complicated than the Eagles need to hit on more of their WR picks. A lot of teams miss on receivers and there is no crystal ball, but the Eagles have overthought receivers (up until this draft) and don’t listen to modern analytics that are best for projecting NFL production. Fast receivers are great but speed alone just isn’t a good enough predictive metric of success. PFF has a great article which highlights three things that matter: ability to separate, to catch balls, and to generate YAC (link below):

Below is a snapshot of WRs from the 2020 season that had more than 65 receptions (to filter down to feature receivers) showing their percentile ranks on separation (yards of separation at the time the ball arrived), catch %, and yards after catch (all data is from Next Gen Stats here). The highest rated receivers have at least one elite trait and usually two.

Wide receiver efficiency stats

And when comparing separation, catch, and YAC ability to player AV value, the majority of top rated receivers by value also show above average skills.

How have the Eagles drafted receivers historically? They have largely drafted receivers that can’t separate, catch, or generate yards after catch. Below shows the top current receivers (Fulgham included even though he is not an Eagles draft pick) as well as Matthews and Agholor. The other draft picks including Huff, Hollins, Hightower, and Quez do not have enough data to generate the stats.

Wide receiver efficiency - Eagles recent draft picks

There’s a big difference between criticizing a pick and criticizing the process or philosophy that led up to the pick. I try not to second guess picks themselves as the hit rate on draft picks is so low and it is easy to find better picks after the fact. But I will criticize bad thinking or process that led to a pick, regardless of it it worked out or not.

It is fine to evolve a draft philosophy over time – it’s expected – but Howie seems to have a completely different one every year. This year was best-player-available, last year was “Are they fast? Are they healthy? Do they love to play?”, the year before was college production. I love the Eagles investment in analytics but “fast” is not analytics. Just a few examples to show the criticism of the process:

2020 Draft – Jalen Reagor: Reagor, slotted by most as a second rounder, is taken ahead of Justin Jefferson and Howie initially points to Jefferson being a slot receiver and Reagor’s play speed as the reasons. As stated above, looking at that year’s slate of picks it is easy to see Howie’s primary focus was pure speed (just pull up our picks RAS profiles). I really like Reagor and think he will be good (more on that below), but Howie’s logic makes no sense and misses what matters. Jefferson played the slot in college to get Chase and Marshall on the field, not because he couldn’t play outside. And Jefferson has near elite separation abilities.

2019 Draft – JJ Arcega-Whiteside: JJ is famously taken ahead of DK Metcalf (and Terry McLaurin). DK failed the Eagles medical test, but they then forced JJ and extolled his “ability to play above the rim” and “red zone ability”. JJ’s known negatives were “separation ability, lack of explosiveness, and stiff hips”. Howie took a player that cannot separate or generate yards after the catch.

2014 Draft – Jordan Matthews: This one is tougher. Matthews was probably the consensus next rated wide receiver when the Eagles picked and was viewed as having the size (6’3″) and speed (4.46) they wanted. He was a fine pick, I don’t over-hate on him, and it feels a bit like Monday-morning quarterbacking to immediately look at Davante Adams or Jarvis Landry or Allen Robinson that all went within the next 10-20 picks. Matthews draft profiles were all generally good and I spent a lot of time re-reading them. And when you do, you start seeing some of the concerns that showed up in the NFL:

  • While his 40 speed was good, especially for his size, his short-area agility (3-cone and shuttle) were mediocre.
  • A lot of his college production came on swing passes
  • Lacks lateral speed and innate quickness
  • Questions on if he has the ability to separate from NFL-caliber press

Looking forward

But I am very optimistic moving forward. DeVonta is that good and fits all the criteria that are important – there wasn’t a receiver better than him at getting off press coverage and separating… he dropped nothing (2.5% of passes)… and he had double the amount of YAC than the next closest college receiver. Smith is going to dominate. I don’t bet, but I would take the over on his rookie yards with my kids college money.

And when I showed the Eagles receiver stats above, Reagor shows all the tools – 95th percentile among receivers last year in separation and 76th percentile in YAC. He needs to clean up his drops but the biggest issues with Reagor last year were that Wentz was historically awful and the scheme didn’t use Reagor to his strengths at all. Can he get better? Sure. But he was open a ton last year and not thrown to or over/under thrown. I criticized the thinking of picking Reagor and not Jefferson because Howie’s reasoning no made sense – Jefferson did not have slot-only skills and he had elite separation which is what matters more than s a 40 time. But I would not be surprised if Reagor’s and Jefferson’s careers are much, much closer when it is all said and done.

The Eagles receiving corps is going to surprise people in 2021 and it will suddenly change the picture of the Eagles draft success here.

Previous posts in the analyzing the Eagles draft philosophy series:

The Other Forgotten Position – Linebacker

“The Factory” – Quarterback

“The Trenches” Part 2 – Offensive Line

“The Trenches” Part 1 – Defensive Line

The Forgotten Position – Cornerback

The Analytics of the Eagles Draft Philosophy Series: Linebackers

Looking at the Eagle’s linebacker draft philosophy may be the most interesting one I have done so far as I personally started off biased towards Howie’s view of under-prioritizing linebackers. Most teams like the Eagles just don’t have linebackers on the field as much as before as “base” defense is down to 25% of snaps, meaning their third linebacker is off the field on most plays. But the rise of freakish athletes that allow offenses to exploit corners that are too small and linebackers that are too slow makes the need for hybrid defenders even more important.

Below shows how the Eagles have invested in different positions in the draft, with number of picks used on a position on the left and amount of draft capital (higher picks counting more) on the right. The Eagles, true to their word, do invest little in the linebacker position, ranking 18th in picks and 23rd in draft capital used.

Eagles use of draft picks and capital by position
Eagles use of draft picks and capital by position

Some Eagles linebacker stats

PFF just released their rankings of linebacking units and the Eagles predictably came in near the bottom at 29th out of 32 teams with damning linebacker pass defense stats:

In 2020, the Eagles linebackers almost exclusively ranked poorly against other linebackers in the league:

  • Against the run, TJ Edwards and Alex Singleton are tied for 30th in the league and Nate Gerry is 43rd
  • In pass coverage, Edwards is 29th, Duke Riley is 47th, Singleton is 55th, and Gerry is 83rd
  • In run stop percentage, the lone bright spot for the Eagles is Singleton ranking 11th in the league, with Edwards at 48th, Gerry at 52nd, and Riley at 90th

But we don’t need a ton of stats to show that the Eagles linebacking unit isn’t great.

Linebacker draft analytics

Looking at player value data from drafts between 2005-2020, linebackers are a position like offensive line, wide receiver, and tight end where the ability to draft really good players is still relatively high through the second round. The first chart below shows how quickly player value drops by round measured by player Approximate Value (AV) – linebacker player value degrades, on average, by 28% after the first round (5th lowest) and a cumulative 45% after the second round (6th lowest).

Amount of player value drop by position and round
Amount of player value drop by position and round

The second chart shows a boxplot of expected player value for linebackers by round (the box displays the 25th percentile, median, and 75th percentile of player value). In the first round, the median linebacker will be near a 60th percentile, or above average, starter. In the second round, the median linebacker is above the 40th percentile but the top end of the box (75th percentile) is still near 60. A 60th percentile linebacker would include players like Rashaan Evans, Zach Cunningham, Harold Landry, and Bud Dupree. A lot of good linebackers are drafted through the first two rounds.

LB player value by round
LB player value by round

Putting names to the data, the next chart shows the top 25th percentile linebackers by player value and which pick was used to draft them on the x-axis. Of the top 26 linebackers, 16 were drafted in the 1st round and another 8 were taken in the second.

Top LB Draft position and value
Top LB Draft position and value

And the linebacker position is still important, contrary to Howie’s very public position and something that may change as Sirianni is used to having stronger linebackers. Sharp Football Analysis has some great data on offenses exploiting linebacker mismatches here. The key point is that an offense increases its Expected Points Added (EPA) from -1.2 to +1.8 per 60 plays when a mismatch is present, defined as a LB lined up against a RB or WR. And this improvement exists whether the mismatch is exploited in the play or not. When the mismatch is exploited in man coverage, EPA per 60 plays increases to +19.4, an over 20-point swing vs. no mismatch plays. Mismatches, while still present on a minority of plays, can change a game just based on the expected value from them. Linebackers that can cover the increasingly more common freak athletes are becoming more essential, not less.

Eagles draft history of linebackers

During Howie’s tenure, the Eagles have drafted 13 linebackers, with 3 taken in the first three rounds and have also drafted linebackers very poorly. Only one, Jordan Hicks, was an above average starter and he was taken by Chip Kelly in the one non-Howie draft year. One other, Mychal Kendricks, was a good but not great player. It’s too early to judge last year’s 3rd round pick Davion Taylor but he was another head-scratching Howie pick as Davion had limited football experience and was greatly over-drafted. Beyond that, the Eagles have largely relied on UDFAs and day three picks similar to their cornerback draft strategy.

Eagles LB Draft Picks

While the Eagles defense has been good over the past several years, it is primarily due to the defensive line (explained in the defensive line draft post here), with both the secondary and linebackers being a drag on the defense. Below shows all teams’ defensive DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average, a great metric by Football Outsiders to show a team’s success on plays vs. the league average) vs. cumulative linebacker Approximate Value. A defensive DVOA is better as it becomes more negative which is why the y-axis is reverse sorted. The Eagles data points are highlighted in red and show that the Eagles defensive rating has declined to near league average over the past three years with poor output from their linebackers.

Eagles DVOA vs LB AV
Eagles DVOA vs LB AV

The Eagles maybe more than most teams have embraced hybrid defenders which is shown with picks like Nate Gerry and JaCoby Stevens, who were both college safeties. And the Eagles heavily used safety Malcolm Jenkins as a linebacker, with Jenkins lining up as a linebacker on almost 50% of snaps. The below chart is an updated version of the above one with Malcolm included in the linebacker value stats which puts the Eagles more in-line with the loose trendline of the league. It is not totally valid to reclassify Malcolm as a linebacker as he did play true safety and even slot corner on half his snaps, but is illustrative of what the Eagles more accurately perform like and why there has been a noticeable hit after Jenkins’ departure.

Eagles DVOA vs LB AV with Jenkins adjustment
Eagles DVOA vs LB AV with Jenkins adjustment

The 2021 draft and looking forward to 2022

The Eagles greatly improved their linebacking unit for the 2021 season but did so with the signing of Eric Wilson in the offseason. But Wilson is on a one-year deal and is much better in coverage (23rd rated linebacker) than run defense (87th rated) and run defense is an underappreciated area of need for the Eagles defense. Beyond Wilson, the Eagles continue to hope their “quantity-over-quality” approach to linebacker will pay off and one of Taylor, Singleton, Rashad Smith, Shaun Bradley, or rookies Stevens or Johnson will outperform their draft pedigree.

I mentioned my bias coming into this was agreeing with Howie’s down-prioritization of linebacker and I do agree to an extent. You do not need three, or even two, great linebackers – even one would be an impact and would help mitigate the growing tight end and running back mismatches being used against linebackers. Jordan Hicks was largely allowed to leave because of injury concerns, but he is exactly the type of player the Eagles could use. I think Howie is right in the type of player he wants at linebacker, focusing on highly athletic players that are often hybrid defenders. Of course it would be great to have three great linebackers but you have to choose where to use your priority draft picks and cannot invest everywhere. And there are only so many Travis Kelces and George Kittles and Alvin Kamaras and Austin Ekelers that will be faced each week.

But Howie is wrong in almost never using a priority pick on linebacker. Similar to the draft analysis on cornerbacks, Howie solely focuses on hope that a day 3 pick will turn out which has under a 25% chance of happening in the 4th round and almost 0% chance after the fourth. Looking back at recent drafts, here are some alternate picks the Eagles could have made to address LB:

2020 Draft:

Round 1 – at 21 when Reagor was picked, Patrick Queen (9 AV in his rookie season) and Kenneth Murray (8 AV) were available.

Round 2 – at 53 when Hurts was selected, Jeremy Chinn (a safety but used exactly like Jenkins was and generated 14 AV) was available.

2019 Draft:

Round 1 – at the Eagles original pick at 25 before trading up for Dillard, Jahlani Tavai (4 AV on only 50% of snaps played) was the next best LB available in a down LB year. Tavai has not been good his first couple of years.

2018 Draft:

Round 1 – available at 32 before the Eagles traded out of the spot with Baltimore was Darius Leonard (14 AV per season average), the top rated LB in the last 10 years

Looking forward, the Eagles do not have the position figured out as Eric Wilson is only on a 1-year deal and I believe expectations are too high on what he will bring given his liability in run defense. This is another position that the Eagles should increase investment in. I am not saying what the Eagles will do, but what they should do, and using at least an early day 2 pick to provide an answer to the league’s growing offensive mismatches is absolutely needed.

Previous posts in the analyzing the Eagles draft philosophy series:

“The Factory” – Quarterback

“The Trenches” Part 2 – Offensive Line

“The Trenches” Part 1 – Defensive Line

The Forgotten Position – Cornerback

The Analytics of the Eagles Draft Philosophy Series: “The QB Factory”

Yes, the factory… I already wrote on cornerbacks and both the OL and DL, and wasn’t looking forward to analyzing and writing on the quarterbacks for several reasons. But first, yes, the Eagles do invest comparatively more than the league in QBs, using both more picks (8th in the league) and more draft capital (6th in the league). As shown below, over the past ten years the Eagles invest more than the league average in only two positions: QB and D-line.

Eagles draft capital used by position

A few things explain this. First, the Eagles have publicly stated what their positional priorities in the draft are, with Howie saying the Eagles will always invest in the trenches (although in the OL post, I show that is not actually true during his tenure) and that the Eagles want to be a quarterback factory. Second, the Eagles used so much draft capital to move up and draft Wentz that it blew a giant hole in their draft capital. The chart below shows the Eagles draft capital by year, factoring in the number of picks and the expected value of these picks.

Eagles draft capital by year

The black dashed line above shows the average draft capital by team – above the line and a team has more capital than the average team and below the line, they have less. The Wentz trade took four draft picks and the Darby trade sent another 3rd round pick in 2018. Add in other trades and the Eagles went four of five years around the Wentz selection with significantly decreased draft capital.

Some General QB Draft Data

It is well known that drafting quarterbacks is really hard – it’s effectively a casino. More than any other position, you really have to draft them high and for the honor of using a high pick, teams have a 25% chance of getting the quarterback they are hoping for. The chart below shows the success rate of all QBs drafted since 2005 with the Y-axis showing the percentile grouping the QB is in based on their Approximate Value metric. A full third of 1st round QBs taken are busts with the rest being around average. After the 1st round, the chance of a bust is above 50% with practically no elite or above average QBs taken through the remaining rounds.

QB player value by round

This next chart shows the same data with a different view, this time showing a boxplot of the same player value percentile by round. If you aren’t familiar with boxplots, the horizontal line in the middle of the box is the median value, the top end of the solid box is the 75th percentile, the bottom end of the solid box is the 25th percentile, and the “whiskers” (thin lines extending above and below the box) show the remaining outlier values.

QB player value by round

In round 1, the median QB percentile drafted is just under 60, which typically includes QBs with some decent years but eventually back and forth between starter and backup. Some QBs around the 60th percentile include Andy Dalton, Sam Bradford, Mark Sanchez, Vince Young, Alex Smith, and Joe Flacco (it is freaky that so many on this list made their way through Philly, I swear I did not cherry-pick names). The quarterback names that teams are hoping for when they draft a quarterback in the first round all have percentiles above 80 – Matt Ryan (82), Aaron Rodgers (87), Russell Wilson (92), Andrew Luck (92), Deshaun Watson (98), and Mahomes (100). As shown above, these players above the 80th percentile are only 25% of QBs drafted.

Once you move to the second round, your median value for a QB is under 40 and only 25% of QBs drafted have a value percentile above the low 40s. To put some names to this list, each of these QBs are around the 40th percentile: Kevin Kolb (40), Brock Osweiler (39), and EJ Manuel (34). You get the point.

The Eagles QB Draft History

Since 2010, the Eagles have drafted six quarterbacks, with one first round pick (Wentz), one second (Hurts), a third (Foles), and then three throw-away day three picks.

Eagles quarterback draft picks

This next chart shows all QBs drafted with the x-axis being by pick location and the y-axis being by player value (AV per year) and the size of the dot being the player percentile. The Eagles QB picks are the red circles and I highlighted them as most are almost impossible to see.

QBs drafted by draft location and value

The Wentz era ended badly, but he grades out as a 79th percentile quarterback including his atrocious 2020 season. As shown above, there aren’t a lot of QBs higher than Wentz and given the low chance of successfully drafting a QB, the Eagles did comparatively well. In 2016, fifteen QBs were drafted with only Wentz and Dak being successful QBs (some would also put Goff in this list). The Eagles were right to take a shot on a QB and Wentz vs. Foles debates aside, the Eagles won a Super Bowl.

My issue is with the Eagles using so many lower picks on quarterbacks. When looking at the number of picks after the first round or number of day 3 picks, the Eagles are near the top in the league. With such a low hit rate in the later rounds, these are wasted picks – Kafka, Barkley, and Thorson are all picks that would have been better used elsewhere.

Number of QB draft picks by team

Howie Dealing QBs

While this series is more about analyzing the Eagles positional draft strategy in particular, you can’t talk about QBs without looking at the trades. The Eagles have been active in dealing QBs and I believe this partly contributes to Howie’s obsession with drafting QBs.

  • In 2012, the Eagles dealt Kevin Kolb, a career 9-12 starter, to Arizona for Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and a 2nd round pick that turned into Vinny Curry.
  • In 2015, in the one non-Howie led Eagles year, traded Foles, a 2nd, and a 4th to the Rams for Sam Bradford and a 5th.
  • Also in 2015, the Eagles traded prior 4th-rounder Matt Barkley to Arizona for a 7th which became LB Joe Walker, a one-year player for the Eagles.
  • And in 2016 after Teddy Bridgewater’s injury left the Vikings without a QB, the Eagles traded Sam Bradford to Minnesota for a 2017 first (used to take Derek Barnett) and a 2018 4th (Josh Sweat).

The Eagles “won” the balance of these trades, mostly because of the silly returns they got for Kolb and Bradford (but the Eagles also paid a lot to get Bradford). Like I wrote in the offensive line draft analysis, I wonder if some of this history affects Howie’s strategy, thinking they can continually draft QBs and either have them work out or deal them for an outsized return. But a strategy based on other teams being dumb (Arizona with Kolb) or desperate and dumb (Minnesota with Bradford) is not a valid strategy. Add in that drafting Hurts behind Wentz may have affected Wentz (which we will never know and at the end of the day, is more an indictment of Wentz that he couldn’t handle it in my opinion) and the Eagles pride in themselves being a “quarterback factory” is really misguided.

Looking Forward to 2022

While I hate the Eagles draft strategy around QBs, you need a top-end QB. Looking forward, it is no secret that the Eagles are giving the 2021 season to Hurts but if he does not succeed, they will use their built-up draft capital to acquire another QB (either in the draft or via trade).

In the prior articles in this series I listed where the Eagles need to use their top picks moving forward, with cornerback being an absolute need in 2022. If the Eagles instead have to pivot and use these picks on a QB, it will blow another hole in their draft capital similar to the middle of this past decade when they took Wentz.

I was against taking a QB high this year (still am), but it is rare to be in the top 10 in the draft and teams need to use that opportunity to take a QB. Look at the Falcons, I think it was a mistake to not take Ryan’s replacement this year with them being at 4 which you never know if you will be back at even if you aren’t a good team. If Hurts doesn’t work out with the worst case of the Eagles being “good enough” to not have a high pick, it will take another large draft capital investment when they could have taken Fields.

Previous posts in the analyzing the Eagles draft philosophy series:

“The Trenches” Part 2 – Offensive Line

“The Trenches” Part 1 – Defensive Line

The Forgotten Position – Cornerback

The Analytics of the Eagles Draft Philosophy Series: The Trenches Part 2 – OL

I covered the defensive line in the last post here, which the Eagles invest more in than the majority of the league and have also drafted very well with their top picks. On the offensive line, the story is very different as the Eagles have actually under-invested compared to the league, have not drafted well with their top picks, but have gotten very lucky later in the draft (which I believe has created an unrealistic expectation amongst many in the fan base — more on that later).

Below is a recap of their draft investment by position area which shows the number of picks and the amount of draft capital (weighting higher picks more) that the Eagles have used on different position groups and where they rank against the league:

Eagles draft history on the O-line

The Eagles are below the league average in use of picks (14.3% vs. 16.4%) and draft capital (15.3% vs. 17.0%) spent on the offensive line, ranking 26th in the league in both. In the 2010–2021 period, the Eagles used fourteen picks on the OL, five in the first three rounds, but with more draft misses. And three of these fourteen picks were in the past two drafts, with no offensive linemen taken at all in 2017, 2015, or 2014. The Eagles generally draft tackles and sign guards, with half of the past decade’s picks being used on tackles and only two non-day three guard picks. Multi-year interior starters like Brandon Brooks, Wisniewski, and Evan Mathis (all second or third round picks) came via free agency.

As opposed to the defensive line where seven top picks over the past decade yielded Cox, Graham, Barnett, Curry, Bennie Logan, and this year’s Milton Williams, prior to this draft the Eagles four OL picks in the first three rounds only yielded Lane Johnson and Seumalo as starters. The fireman is one of the Eagles biggest draft misses in the Howie era and then there is Dillard… I personally have hope in Dillard, but he is a question mark that has under-performed without a clear path to playing time this season.

Another difference from the defensive line is how good (or lucky) the Eagles have been in the later rounds. Kelce is not only one of the best centers over the past decade, but between 2005–2020 the Eagles found the 9th best draft value vs. expected across the entire league from over 4,000 draft selections (measured as actual player value vs. what is expected from that draft position). Add in Vaitai in the 5th round who has had an up and down career but played a critical role in the 2017 season, Mailata in the 7th who appears to be their future LT, Dennis Kelly in the 5th who went on to have some good seasons after the Eagles, Jack Driscoll last year in the 4th who played very well in his rookie season, and UDFA Nate Herbig who graded out as the 11th best guard over 79% of snaps last season and should, at worst, be a solid backup moving forward.

I mentioned earlier that the Eagles success (luck) with late round OL picks like Kelce and the presence of Jeff Stoutland leads to an unrealistic expectation that the Eagles can just take later round linemen and it will work out. This is a fan view, not a Howie view — while I showed the Eagles have under-invested in the OL by not using many picks on the line, they have not relied on late round picks as a draft strategy as they do with cornerback. The Eagles have used high picks, but just haven’t hit on them. Kelce is such a rare find and to assume it can be easily repeated is ignoring history and assuming the Eagles have some cheat code on drafting linemen. They don’t. Below shows the round-by-round success rate of IOL and tackles — after the third round, both have around a 30% chance of being even an average NFL player, with above average picks having below a 20% chance and elite players being almost non-existent.

With Kelce, Lane, and the addition of Brandon Brooks (free agency) and Jason Peters (trade), the Eagles line has consistently been a top-10 line in both pass protection and run blocking. Having such a dominant line with locked-in starters gave the Eagles the opportunity to prioritize other positions in the draft.

The criticism here is that the Eagles did not draft soon enough for OL replacements as the aging of the line, the consistent injuries the past several years, and the lack of depth has become obvious recently. Yes, the Eagles have had some bad luck with injuries, but when it happens year after year, it isn’t variance, it’s reality. I cringe when I hear “we have one of the best lines if it stays healthy”… The line requires more investment.

The 2021 draft and looking forward to 2022

I gave my post-draft thoughts on what value this year’s picks could be expected to bring here, but love the Landon Dickerson pick. There is his injury risk, but I will go on record that I think it was a smart pick by the Eagles as he has the potential to be an elite center post-Kelce. The Eagles need to prepare for the post Brooks / Lane era though. Looking forward with their current roster, the Eagles not only don’t have a line comparable to what they have been used to, but they don’t have five starters on the roster today:

It is not easy to predict what their future line will look like as there are several options. If Dillard shows promise, does Mailata eventually switch to RT? Does Dickerson settle in at C or G? Can either Herbig or Driscoll show they are starters? And the Eagles will clearly be active in trades and free agency, especially next year when the cap situation is better. But projecting based on what we know today, Dickerson, probably Mailata, and maybe Seumalo are the only ones that are likely part of the future starting line. Driscoll and Herbig we hope can be starters, but most likely are depth pieces and clearly not yet replacements for Brooks or Lane. Le’Raven Clark was just signed as a swing tackle. The rest on the above depth chart probably don’t even survive this year’s roster cuts.

To put numbers to it, the top five offensive lines in the league (CLE, GB, TB, LAR, NE) combine for between 45–57 Approximate Value (AV) per season across the five positions, averaging 9–11 AV per lineman (if you want to understand AV better, I have a deeper description of it here). The Eagles starting lineup for 2021 should be very good and in the 42–45 AV range if you project to a full season and assume Mailata takes another step up. Looking past Kelce, Brooks, and Johnson, assuming some (but not massive) improvement, and projecting Landon as an above average center, the OL would only be in the 30–40 AV range. Maybe Herbig and Driscoll could surprise, but one is a 4th round pick and the other went undrafted where elevating to an above average starter doesn’t happen often.

Projecting AV is just illustrative and, more than any other position group, OL is more the sum than its individual parts. But the above is a realistic scenario that highlights decreased strength on the right side of the line. The future line just isn’t good enough.

The Eagles won’t let this happen though. In the upcoming drafts, expect one or more high picks to be used on the line. A high pick on a tackle is very likely unless Dillard shows his potential and Mailata moves to the right side. The Eagles don’t generally draft guards high but I would not be surprised to see this change with another day two pick.

Previous posts in the analyzing the Eagles draft philosophy series:

“The Trenches” Part 1 – Defensive Line

The Forgotten Position – Cornerback

The Analytics of the Eagles Draft Philosophy Series: The Trenches Part 1 – DL

Here is the second article (the first was on cornerback) analyzing the Eagles draft philosophy and what is right or wrong based on historical data.

When asked about using five of nine picks in the 2021 draft on linemen, Howie said “Right or wrong, as long as I’m here, that’s going to be the priority.” While Howie has seemed to shift his draft philosophy annually (valuing college production several years ago, then a focus on athletes last year, or reaching to fill positions vs. sticking to their board), he has been outwardly consistent on valuing the lines.

Below shows draft stats from 2010–2021, with the first set showing the pure number of picks used by position group and the second showing the amount of draft capital used by position group. For each, how the Eagles compare to league averages is shown.

Despite his statements, besides quarterback defensive line is the only position group where the Eagles have actually invested more than the league average in the draft.

Eagles draft history on the D-line

On the D-line, the Eagles both use more picks (22.4% of their picks vs. the league average of 18.0% of picks) and more draft capital (20.7% vs. 18.7%) than the league overall. The Eagles rank 2nd in the league in number of picks used on DL and 7th in draft capital.

This surprises nobody as the Eagles have used 22 picks in this time period on DL, drafting at least one linemen every year except 2011 and making multiple picks in most years. Additionally, the Eagles have drafted very well on the defensive line with no egregious draft misses in the first three rounds. Curry and Te’o-Nesheim are the two lowest graded R1–3 picks — Curry had a couple of good years, particularly 2017, and Te’o-Nesheim only lasted one season in Philly before moving on to Tampa where he has had a couple of decent years.

Below shows the full list of Eagles draft picks over this period sorted by draft slot with player AV value and percentile (what performance percentile they are in for their position), along with the expected player percentile from that draft slot. On the defensive line, the Eagles have either been lucky or good (or both) as they have succeeded by getting value on basically all of their top picks, including a long-term elite player in Fletcher Cox, with no notable draft misses. Day 3 picks have generally not been of value as is expected from day 3 picks. As a preview, the story is very different for the offensive line…

As opposed to CB where I explained here the Eagles heavily rely on lower percentage day 3 picks and reclamation project signings or trades, the top end of the draft has been a priority for DL:

  • Round 1: Graham, Cox, Barnett
  • Round 2: Curry
  • Round 3: Bennie Logan, Daniel Te’o-Nesheim, and Milton Williams this year
  • Day 3 Notable Picks: Josh Sweat and Beau Allen

On top of the draft, the Eagles have also prioritized DL in free agency and trades, adding several linemen that have had significant playing time (Michael Bennett, Ridgeway, Hargrave, Chris Long, Malik Jackson, Jernigan, and most recently Ryan Kerrigan).

The Eagles defensive line has been a strength, with elite or near-elite pass rush and upper-half run defense grades over the past five years. Their high draft picks of Cox, Graham, and Curry consistently appear in the top grading below:

The 2021 draft and looking forward to 2022

I gave my post-draft thoughts on what value this year’s picks could be expected to bring here, but think the long-term focus on the defensive line is absolutely correct as well as the prioritization in this year’s draft. The DL is still good but aging and is frankly too expensive, with the four projected starters consuming 26% of the entire salary cap and all in the top eight cap hits on the team for 2021.

Milton Williams is the only DT in the draft this year with an 85+ grade in pass rush and run defense and brings flexibility inside and out. Marlon Tuipulotu could add the run-stuffing defender that has been missing recently — I make comparisons of Tuipulotu to Bennie Logan, who have similar builds and measurables, were both generally ranked somewhere in the 7th to 13th best DT prospect (although Tuipulotu was ranked as high as 3rd by some before falling due to back concerns), and were discounted in the draft some due to being more run-defenders than pass rushers. Throughout his career, Bennie’s defenses gave up 50 fewer rushing yards per game when he was on the field vs. not on the field and if Tuipulotu can bring similar value, it fits a definite need for the Eagles. And Tarron Jackson, despite being picked at 191 where success is generally not found, has interesting potential as he shined at the Senior Bowl, has all the intangibles you want, and could be a great find from a rising but still overlooked college program. I am really high on all three of these picks and think Howie found some draft inefficiencies that people are overlooking.

Looking forward, the Eagles will most likely lose Barnett, possibly before the start of this season and most definitely before 2022. The Eagles will also start to face the harsh reality of the value of Cox vs. his cost and age. Hargrave should be here for two years given his restructure but will be 30 then. Behind Cox and Hargrave, there was not depth before this draft and getting this talent via free agency or trades is expensive.

Given the above and the amount of cap being used for the DL, the Eagles need to continue to invest there in the 2022 draft, specifically for starting DTs and at least depth at EDGE. With which picks will depend primarily on if they need to use their top picks to acquire or get into a better draft position to get a QB and after they hopefully address CB.

Previous posts in the analyzing the Eagles draft philosophy series:

The Forgotten Position – Cornerback

The Analytics of the Eagles Draft Philosophy Series: CB

I’ve been looking at the Eagles draft history and going to have a couple of posts on their draft philosophy and where they are right or wrong. CB, of course, is first.

This past draft may finally be the turning point for Philly fans as it is the most I have seen people clamor for a 1st round corner, but Howie’s draft history shows his prioritization on CBs is not aligned with the reality of the draft.

Below shows draft stats from 2010–2021, with the first set of columns showing the pure number of picks used by position group. The second set of columns show draft capital used instead of picks to reflect where the Eagles are using higher or lower picks. Then, the league averages for each are shown and where the Eagles rank compared to the league in how they invest by position.

Looking at the above draft investment chart, it appears the Eagles do prioritize CB as they are right around league average in number of picks spent on CBs (14th in the league) and draft capital (16th). But the issue is the Eagles have taken a quantity-over-quality approach to corner and it doesn’t work.

Since 2005, the Eagles are last in the league in prioritizing CBs in the draft. They have selected zero round 1 corners, last in the league and the only team to not have taken a CB in the 1st round. The Eagles have only taken three corners in the 2nd round, tied for last in the league. The other teams the Eagles are tied with (SEA, SFO, BAL, and WFT) all drafted multiple CBs in the 1st round though.

Since 2010, the Eagles have selected the following corners:

  • 1st round — None…
  • 2nd — Sidney Jones, Eric Rowe
  • 3rd — Rasul Douglas, Curtis Marsh
  • 4th — Avonte, Jaylen Watkins, Brandon Boykin, Trevard Lindley, Quintin Demps, Jack Ikegwuonu, Sean Considine, and Zech McPhearson
  • 5th — Victor Harris, CJ Gaddis
  • 6th — Blake Countess, JaCorey Shepherd, Randall Evans, Rashad Barksdale
  • 7th — Jalen Mills, Jordan Poyer

The list above is 20 picks over a decade with not only no true CB1 coming out of the draft, but barely any average corners. The best of the group is Jalen Mills averaging 4 Approximate Value (AV) per year, which puts him as an average NFL starter (as context, the top CBs generate 6 or more AV per season). Before moving to safety, Mills had PFF grades of 56.1, 57.2, 65.5, and 39.0 with passer ratings allowed of over 100. Next would be the other 7th rounder Jordan Poyer, who the Eagles drafted but released and went on to a 3.8 AV per year career with Cleveland and Buffalo. Next is Avonte as a 3.3 AV per year player, borderline average, who has shown he is at best a nickel corner and more likely either the 4th CB on the field or a safety.

This is clearly impacting the Eagles defense as the Eagles have dropped to near the bottom of the league in overall coverage grades. The grades are worse when you isolate to CBs as a lot of the value in the Eagles coverage defense has been helped by safeties (particularly McLeod) and relatively high LB coverage grades in 2016–2018 (Bradham, Hicks). In the past 5 years, the Eagles have had one season with a CB graded over 80 (Patrick Robinson) and only two seasons with a CB graded over 70 (Darby, LeBlanc) — none of these CBs were drafted players.

Many will say this is another example of Howie not drafting well, but it isn’t an issue of his selections — this is what should be expected when corners are primarily taken on day 3. This is an issue of draft philosophy and which positions Howie values or does not value. Below shows the chance of drafting elite (90th percentile by AV), above average (60–90th percentile), or league average (40–60th percentile) corners by round:

Elite corners are almost exclusively drafted in the 1st round where the Eagles have not selected a corner since 2002 (the last time the Eagles secondary was truly good). In the 2nd round, the chance of an above average CB is around 50% and drops to 20% in the 3rd. The Eagles should have expected one of their four 2nd or 3rd round selections to be better than they turned out, but with the majority of their CB picks in rounds 4–6, they had around a 20% chance of even getting an average corner, which is almost exactly what they saw.

A re-draft “what if?”

To play “What if?”, here is a look at the 2015–2019 drafts with the Eagles round 1 pick and the round 1 CBs that were on the board still:

If the Eagles instead took the likely next CB instead of their own pick, they would have clearly had a true CB1 in 3 of the 4 drafts with 2015 and 2017 being the most likely places they could have (should have) gone with a corner. As comparison, these corners would have graded out at or above where Darius Slay is for the Eagles right now, who generated 7 AV last season.

2015 Draft
The Eagles drafted Agholor, a good but inconsistent player who grades out where he should as an average starter with 4.50 AV per year. Byron Jones, who the Eagles made a big play for a couple of years ago, was the only remaining round 1 graded CB in that draft and would have been a great pick.

2016 Draft
This is the year the Eagles took Carson and I am including this just for fun. QB is the only position more important to get in the 1st and the Eagles did the right thing, despite how it has ended with Carson. But Jalen Ramsey was there…

2017 Draft
This is one of the most interesting years as it shows where the Eagles do prioritize (defensive line) and the players they missed out on. Instead of the Eagles drafting Derek Barnett with pick 14, 3 of the 4 CBs available are all top 10–15 corners in the league and near elite level. You never know with Howie, but Marlon Humphrey would have most likely been the pick as he was the consensus next graded corner on the board. Barnett is a good, but not great, player and Humphrey’s 7.00 AV per season nearly doubles Barnett’s 4.25 AV. There are only 8 CBs that have graded out at 7AV or better since 2005.

2018 Draft
Skipping this draft as the Eagles did not have a first this year after trading with the Ravens.

2019 Draft
Corners are hard to evaluate early in their careers and many have started off poor and turned it around. But 2019 looks like the one year where round 1 CBs may have missed. They have potential but are either moving to slot (Byron Murphy), have missed significant time due to injuries (Greedy Williams and Deandre Baker), or just not shown CB1 play yet (Rock Ya-Sin). Even given this, they all grade out higher than the Eagles pick of Dillard who has missed time and not lived up to expectations for a round 1 pick.

The 2021 draft and looking forward to 2022

The 2021 draft is an interesting validation that CBs need to be taken high. Maybe the Eagles would have taken Horn or Surtain but we will never know as both were taken top 10, showing that the view that “there isn’t value at CB that high” is wrong. CBs were the most heavily drafted position in 2021 with five taken in the 1st round, three more in the 2nd, and eight in the 3rd, quickly depleting the top talent. The Eagles probably would have targeted a CB at some point but at each pick, the value was not there (Horn and Surtain were gone by their pick in the 1st and Newsome, Stokes, and Campbell were gone by 37). Other teams are prioritizing CBs and taking them quickly year after year.

The Eagles need to change their draft philosophy on CBs as they are at odds with both the league reality of needing three really good corners on the field for most snaps and the historical draft value data that shows corners need to be taken very high. The Eagles hoping for late-round hits — Mills is their best example but is an average corner — or trotting in endless reclamation projects like this year’s Obi Melifonwu or prior years’ Craig James, Cre’Von LeBlanc, Michael Jacquet, Kevon Seymour, Leodis McKelvin, and many others pressed into significant playing time and hoping they hit is not working. This is not criticism of the players — players like LeBlanc played their heart out and outperformed — it is a criticism of the process. Howie de-prioritizing CB and hoping to get starters on the cheap is not supported by the reality of draft history on where CB1s are found.

People will also point to Gannon’s success with the Colts and Vikings corners and the anticipated Eagles defensive scheme with more zone as a reason to continue de-prioritizing corners, but this does not mean you do not need talent. Gannon had multiple first round CBs with Xavier Rhodes, Trae Waynes, and Rock Ya-Sin. No amount of scheme is going to magically cover for an undermanned CB group when Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Michael Gallup are on the field at the same time.

The Eagles have to use one (or more) of their top picks on CB next year — to continue to ignore the position and look on the sale rack in the later rounds is going to kill the team. Howie does a lot right and also gets a lot of criticism for things like individual selections or ignoring linebacker, but his top draft issue is the decade-long neglect of the cornerback position. So next year, unless they make a trade for a CB1 ahead of the draft, Howie should be looking at Stingley or Banks or Elam. Or ideally two of them.

An Eagles 2021 Draft Board and Post-Draft Analysis

Here is my shot at an Eagles 2021 draft board – few points to clarify the spreadsheet layout:

  • The left-to-right ordering of positions is my view on their positional priorities, grouped into Priority 1 (CB, WR, Edge, Center, and IDL), Priority 2 (LB, S, TE), and Priority 3 (RB, OT, QB, and ST)
  • Each round has my view on Eagles targets – for slotting, I used a variety of sources primarily Grinding the Mocks and Dane Brugler’s 2021 “The Beast” draft guide on The Athletic.
  • I marked each player with indicators if they had some confirmed meeting with the Eagles (virtual meeting, Pro Day, or Senior Bowl), if they were a Senior Bowl standout, and their Relative Athletic Score ranking. Reasoning is teams are more likely to target and draft players they met with. And, the Eagles have recently shown a preference towards highly athletic (high RAS) players. Some players they met with but had poor RAS scores (Dazz Newsome for example) and I still included them, but doubted they would be an actual pick.
  • There are a lot of great players I didn’t list just because I didn’t see them as actual priorities or targets for the Eagles (which is why I refuse to have any QBs earlier than round 6).

Here is what my Eagles draft board looks like – for good or bad, right or wrong – going into the 2021 draft:

Post-draft update

Here is the draft board updated after the draft, with selected players taken as well as counts for each round showing how many of that position was taken this year vs. the average number of players drafted at that position in that round.

A few summary thoughts:

Positional priorities were aligned – The Eagles priorities aligned for the most part, with WR, center, and defensive line being where they spent their high picks this year.

Corner went later than expected – I (and everybody) thought corner would be taken much earlier than the 4th as I had it as their top priority (and I have 5 million posts and tweets pounding the table for a corner). And we will never know, but I think if Horn or Surtain were there when they picked, they would have drafted one of them. The 2nd and 3rd rounds also did not work out with corner being the most heavily drafted position through both the first three rounds and the entire draft. This reinforces my point that corners have to be taken high – for more on why and what the historical data shows on corners, read more in these two posts:

Why The Eagles Should Take A Cornerback In Round 1
My no-trade, needs-based, data-backed Eagles 2021 draft strategy

Defensive line and running back may have been draft inefficiencies – Both positions were drafted much lighter than typical years, with 2021 being viewed as not a great defensive tackle year. The Eagles got Milton Williams as only the fourth DT taken where on average, over seven DTs are taken by the 73rd pick. Even Tuipulotu was only the fourteenth DT taken way in the 6th round.

Where I was wrong – I wanted a center and was glad the Eagles took one, but really thought they would have stayed away from Landon’s injury history, especially with health being one of the three pillars of Howie’s draft strategy last year (“can they run, are they healthy, and do they love football”). And I missed totally on Zech McPhearson, Patrick Johnson, and Jacoby Stevens as they weren’t even on the board.

Here is the full Excel spreadsheet:

Eagles-Draft-BoardDownload