I’ve been looking at the Eagles draft history and going to have a couple of posts on their draft philosophy and where they are right or wrong. CB, of course, is first.
This past draft may finally be the turning point for Philly fans as it is the most I have seen people clamor for a 1st round corner, but Howie’s draft history shows his prioritization on CBs is not aligned with the reality of the draft.
Below shows draft stats from 2010–2021, with the first set of columns showing the pure number of picks used by position group. The second set of columns show draft capital used instead of picks to reflect where the Eagles are using higher or lower picks. Then, the league averages for each are shown and where the Eagles rank compared to the league in how they invest by position.
Looking at the above draft investment chart, it appears the Eagles do prioritize CB as they are right around league average in number of picks spent on CBs (14th in the league) and draft capital (16th). But the issue is the Eagles have taken a quantity-over-quality approach to corner and it doesn’t work.
Since 2005, the Eagles are last in the league in prioritizing CBs in the draft. They have selected zero round 1 corners, last in the league and the only team to not have taken a CB in the 1st round. The Eagles have only taken three corners in the 2nd round, tied for last in the league. The other teams the Eagles are tied with (SEA, SFO, BAL, and WFT) all drafted multiple CBs in the 1st round though.
Since 2010, the Eagles have selected the following corners:
- 1st round — None…
- 2nd — Sidney Jones, Eric Rowe
- 3rd — Rasul Douglas, Curtis Marsh
- 4th — Avonte, Jaylen Watkins, Brandon Boykin, Trevard Lindley, Quintin Demps, Jack Ikegwuonu, Sean Considine, and Zech McPhearson
- 5th — Victor Harris, CJ Gaddis
- 6th — Blake Countess, JaCorey Shepherd, Randall Evans, Rashad Barksdale
- 7th — Jalen Mills, Jordan Poyer
The list above is 20 picks over a decade with not only no true CB1 coming out of the draft, but barely any average corners. The best of the group is Jalen Mills averaging 4 Approximate Value (AV) per year, which puts him as an average NFL starter (as context, the top CBs generate 6 or more AV per season). Before moving to safety, Mills had PFF grades of 56.1, 57.2, 65.5, and 39.0 with passer ratings allowed of over 100. Next would be the other 7th rounder Jordan Poyer, who the Eagles drafted but released and went on to a 3.8 AV per year career with Cleveland and Buffalo. Next is Avonte as a 3.3 AV per year player, borderline average, who has shown he is at best a nickel corner and more likely either the 4th CB on the field or a safety.
This is clearly impacting the Eagles defense as the Eagles have dropped to near the bottom of the league in overall coverage grades. The grades are worse when you isolate to CBs as a lot of the value in the Eagles coverage defense has been helped by safeties (particularly McLeod) and relatively high LB coverage grades in 2016–2018 (Bradham, Hicks). In the past 5 years, the Eagles have had one season with a CB graded over 80 (Patrick Robinson) and only two seasons with a CB graded over 70 (Darby, LeBlanc) — none of these CBs were drafted players.
Many will say this is another example of Howie not drafting well, but it isn’t an issue of his selections — this is what should be expected when corners are primarily taken on day 3. This is an issue of draft philosophy and which positions Howie values or does not value. Below shows the chance of drafting elite (90th percentile by AV), above average (60–90th percentile), or league average (40–60th percentile) corners by round:
Elite corners are almost exclusively drafted in the 1st round where the Eagles have not selected a corner since 2002 (the last time the Eagles secondary was truly good). In the 2nd round, the chance of an above average CB is around 50% and drops to 20% in the 3rd. The Eagles should have expected one of their four 2nd or 3rd round selections to be better than they turned out, but with the majority of their CB picks in rounds 4–6, they had around a 20% chance of even getting an average corner, which is almost exactly what they saw.
A re-draft “what if?”
To play “What if?”, here is a look at the 2015–2019 drafts with the Eagles round 1 pick and the round 1 CBs that were on the board still:
If the Eagles instead took the likely next CB instead of their own pick, they would have clearly had a true CB1 in 3 of the 4 drafts with 2015 and 2017 being the most likely places they could have (should have) gone with a corner. As comparison, these corners would have graded out at or above where Darius Slay is for the Eagles right now, who generated 7 AV last season.
2015 Draft
The Eagles drafted Agholor, a good but inconsistent player who grades out where he should as an average starter with 4.50 AV per year. Byron Jones, who the Eagles made a big play for a couple of years ago, was the only remaining round 1 graded CB in that draft and would have been a great pick.
2016 Draft
This is the year the Eagles took Carson and I am including this just for fun. QB is the only position more important to get in the 1st and the Eagles did the right thing, despite how it has ended with Carson. But Jalen Ramsey was there…
2017 Draft
This is one of the most interesting years as it shows where the Eagles do prioritize (defensive line) and the players they missed out on. Instead of the Eagles drafting Derek Barnett with pick 14, 3 of the 4 CBs available are all top 10–15 corners in the league and near elite level. You never know with Howie, but Marlon Humphrey would have most likely been the pick as he was the consensus next graded corner on the board. Barnett is a good, but not great, player and Humphrey’s 7.00 AV per season nearly doubles Barnett’s 4.25 AV. There are only 8 CBs that have graded out at 7AV or better since 2005.
2018 Draft
Skipping this draft as the Eagles did not have a first this year after trading with the Ravens.
2019 Draft
Corners are hard to evaluate early in their careers and many have started off poor and turned it around. But 2019 looks like the one year where round 1 CBs may have missed. They have potential but are either moving to slot (Byron Murphy), have missed significant time due to injuries (Greedy Williams and Deandre Baker), or just not shown CB1 play yet (Rock Ya-Sin). Even given this, they all grade out higher than the Eagles pick of Dillard who has missed time and not lived up to expectations for a round 1 pick.
The 2021 draft and looking forward to 2022
The 2021 draft is an interesting validation that CBs need to be taken high. Maybe the Eagles would have taken Horn or Surtain but we will never know as both were taken top 10, showing that the view that “there isn’t value at CB that high” is wrong. CBs were the most heavily drafted position in 2021 with five taken in the 1st round, three more in the 2nd, and eight in the 3rd, quickly depleting the top talent. The Eagles probably would have targeted a CB at some point but at each pick, the value was not there (Horn and Surtain were gone by their pick in the 1st and Newsome, Stokes, and Campbell were gone by 37). Other teams are prioritizing CBs and taking them quickly year after year.
The Eagles need to change their draft philosophy on CBs as they are at odds with both the league reality of needing three really good corners on the field for most snaps and the historical draft value data that shows corners need to be taken very high. The Eagles hoping for late-round hits — Mills is their best example but is an average corner — or trotting in endless reclamation projects like this year’s Obi Melifonwu or prior years’ Craig James, Cre’Von LeBlanc, Michael Jacquet, Kevon Seymour, Leodis McKelvin, and many others pressed into significant playing time and hoping they hit is not working. This is not criticism of the players — players like LeBlanc played their heart out and outperformed — it is a criticism of the process. Howie de-prioritizing CB and hoping to get starters on the cheap is not supported by the reality of draft history on where CB1s are found.
People will also point to Gannon’s success with the Colts and Vikings corners and the anticipated Eagles defensive scheme with more zone as a reason to continue de-prioritizing corners, but this does not mean you do not need talent. Gannon had multiple first round CBs with Xavier Rhodes, Trae Waynes, and Rock Ya-Sin. No amount of scheme is going to magically cover for an undermanned CB group when Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Michael Gallup are on the field at the same time.
The Eagles have to use one (or more) of their top picks on CB next year — to continue to ignore the position and look on the sale rack in the later rounds is going to kill the team. Howie does a lot right and also gets a lot of criticism for things like individual selections or ignoring linebacker, but his top draft issue is the decade-long neglect of the cornerback position. So next year, unless they make a trade for a CB1 ahead of the draft, Howie should be looking at Stingley or Banks or Elam. Or ideally two of them.