Eagles 2022 Horizontal Draft Board

Horizontal Draft Board
2 Round Mock
DLCBWRSOLTELBRBQBST
R1JORDAN DAVIS*
Jermaine Johnson1
George Karlaftis		TRENT MCDUFFIE
KAIIR ELAM
Andrew Booth*		JAMESON WILLIAMS*
GARRETT WILSON
Drake London
Treylon Burks
Chris Olave*		LEWIS CINE
DAXTON HILL		Charles Cross
Trevor Penning
ZION JOHNSON
Kenyon Green		Devin Lloyd1Desmond Ridder
R2LOGAN HALL*
PERRION WINFREY
Arnold Ebiketie*
Phidarian Mathis1
Josh Paschal
David Ojabo		CAM TAYLOR-BRITT
KYLER GORDON
SKYY MOORE
GEORGE PICKENS*
Jahan Dotson
Christian Watson
John Metchie
Khalil Shakir		Jalen Pitre*TYLER SMITH*Nakobe Dean
Quay Walker
CHAD MUMA
CHRISTIAN HARRIS* 		Breece HallMatt Corral*
Kenny Pickett
R3KINGSLEY ENAGBARE
Myjai Sanders
Alex Wright		Jalyn Armour-DavisJALEN TOLBERT
Alec Pierce		KERBY JOSEPH
BRYAN COOK
Jaquan Brisker*
DYLAN PARHAM
Cam Jurgens
Cole Strange1
Joshua Ezeudu
Jamaree Salyer		Trey McBride
CHARLIE KOLAR		Channing Tindall
Leo Chenal		Isaiah Spiller
Dameon Pierce
James Cook
R4NEIL FARRELL
Deangelo Malone*		CORDALE FLOTTJustyn Ross*
CALVIN AUSTIN
Erik Ezukanma		Tycen AndersonZACH TOM
Luke Goedeke1		Greg DulcichBRANDON SMITH*
Brian Asamoah
Jojo Domann1
Troy Anderson		RACHAAD WHITE
Brian Robinson
R5Matt HenningsenMartin Emerson
Mario Goodrich
Damarri Mathis		Velus Jones1Nick CrossAlec Lindstrom
MATT WALETZKO 		Jeremy Ruckert
Jelani Woods1
Cole Turner		KYRON JOHNSON
Jesse Luketa*
Jeremiah Gemmel		Hassan Haskins
KEAONTAY INGRAM		JORDAN STOUT
Matt Araiza
R6Michael ClemonsJoshua Williams
Damarion Williams		Tyquan ThorntonJean DelanceD’MARCO JACKSON
R7-PFAJayden Peevy
Noah Ellis		Decobie DurantTre TurnerJOEY BLOUNT
JT Woods		Devin Cochran
Austin Deculus		Jerrion Ealy
Kennedy Brooks		Jake Camarda

GREEN BOLDED are my target players considering positional priority and round
* players with confirmed Eagles top 30 visits
1 players 24 years old as rookies

Player Notes

Including notes on select players (priority Eagles players, players I am higher/lower on than others).

Wide Receiver:
R1 Favorites: Jameson Williams, Garrett Wilson, Jahan Dotson (later R1)
R2 Favorites: Skyy Moore
Later round favorites: Calvin Austin, Velus Jones (special teams), Tyquan Thornton

TP/G
(Rank)		YRR
(Rank)		YAC/RTYA
(Rank)		BMT
(Rank)
Jameson Williams2.7
(6)		3.5
(6)		9.5
(3)		5.33
(2)		0.16
(23)
Garrett Wilson3.5
(2)		3.2
(10)		6.1
(21)		0.41
(32)		0.29
(3)
Treylon Burks2.3
(13)		4.0
(1)		9.6
(2)		4.78
(4)		0.24
(8)
Jahan Dotson3.3
(3)		2.8
(21)		5.5
(25)		2.26
(12)		0.10
(36)
Chris Olave1.8
(23)		2.5
(31)		4.2
(37)		-1.09
(38)		0.05
(43)
Skyy Moore3.8
(1)		3.6
(5)		5.7
(25)		1.18
(23)		0.32
(2)
Khalil Shakir2.6
(8)		3.1
(12)		6.1
(21)		2.48
(11)		0.18
(18)
Calvin Austin2.3
(13)		3.2
(10)		7.2
(11)		1.62
(20)		0.18
(18)
Velus Jones1.3
(30)		3.1
(12)		8.4
(6)		1.14
(24)		0.34
(1)

Total Points per Game (TP/G) is similar to WAR and represents impact of a player on overall game.
Yards per route run (YRR) is a view on both performance and ability to get targeted in passing.
Target Yards Added (TYA) is a view on what a receiver adds to the offense compared to other receivers on the team.
Broken and Missed Tackles per route (BMT) is a view on how a receiver creates.

Tight End:
R3 Favorites: Charlie Kolar, Trey McBride
Later round favorites: Cole Turner

TP/G
(Rank)		YRR
(Rank)		YAC/RPassBB
(Rank)		RunBB
(Rank)
Trey McBride4.0
(1)		2.8
(3)		5.1
(14)		0%
(T1)		0.16
(23)
Charlie Kolar2.8
(4)		2.3
(5)		4.0
(21)		1.6%
(18)		0.29
(3)
Greg Dulcich2.4
(9)		2.0
(10)		7.0
(6)		1.9%
(21)		0.24
(8)
Jeremy Ruckert1.3
(21)		1.0
(21)		6.0
(9)		0.9%
(13)		0.10
(36)
Jelani Woods1.4
(19)		1.9
(11)		4.9
(17)		0%
(T1)		0.05
(43)
Cole Turner2.0
(12)		1.6
(17)		3.3
(24)		0%
(T1)		0.32
(2)

Total Points per Game (TP/G) is similar to WAR and represents impact of a player on overall game.
Yards per route run (YRR) is a view on both performance and ability to get targeted in passing.
YAC per reception (YAC/R)
Pass blown block percentage (PassBB) measures how often a block was blown in pass protection
Run blown block percentage (RunBB) measures how often a block was blown in run game
Broken and Missed Tackles per route (BMT) is a view on how a receiver creates.

Cornerback:
Outside if Sauce and Stingley (who I am not including because they will be gone by 15), I am less sure on the CBs than last year (Greg Newsome as a mid/late R1 pick).

R1 Favorites: Trent McDuffie
R2 Favorites: Kaiir Elam, Cam Taylor-Britt
R3 Favorites: Jalyn Armour-Davis (medicals)
Later round favorites: Cordale Flott

TP/G
(Rank)		EPA/Tgt
(Rank)		DC%
(Rank)		Man Y/S
(Rank)		Zone Y/S
(Rank)		RunD TP/G
(Rank)
Andrew Booth3.3
(18)		-0.04
(27)		69%
(14)		1.5
(27)		1.0
(20)		1.1
(26)
Trent McDuffie3.8
(12)		-0.45
(4)		73%
(25)		4.0
(21)		0.6
(T6)		2.1
(1)
Kaiir Elam2.46
(28)		-0.40
(6)		63%
(7)		0.8
(T9)		0.2
(T2)		1.3
(20)
Cam Taylor-Britt4.2
(7)		-0.11
(21)		65%
(9)		0.4
(3)		1.2
(26)		1.2
(23)
Kyler Gordon4.6
(4)		-0.19
(17)		68%
(12)		0.8
(T9)		0.6
(T6)		2.3
(1)
Cordale Flott2.6
(28)		-0.41
(5)		73%
(25)		1.1
(18)		0.2
(T2)		0.8
(35)
Damarion Williams2.5
(31)		-0.36
(7)		69%
(14)		0.7
(11)		0.8
(11)		1.4
(14)
Jalyn Armour-Davis3.9
(11)		74%
(28)		-0.22
(12)		1.0
(20)		1.0
(13)		0.6
(38)

Running Back:
Lower priority position, but would look for bigger backs as RB2 and in advance of Miles free agency.

R2 Favorites: Breece Hall
R3-4 Favorites: Dameon Pierce, Rachaad White, Brian Robinson
Later round favorites: Kennedy Brooks (off-field issues), Jerrion Ealy (smaller back, special teams value)

Rush TP/G
(Rank)		Pass TP/G
(Rank)		PosHAT
(Rank)		10 Yd Split
Time (Pct)		Elusive
Rating		B+MT
Per 100
Breece Hall3.3
(3)		1.0
(1)		20%
(14)		1.52
(9.51)		86.831
Isaiah Spiller2.4
(T11)		0.8
(T2)		11%
(31)		1.59
(6.65)		120.029
Dameon Pierce1.5
(17)		0.5
(T5)		31%
(2)		1.58
(7.28)		138.026
James Cook1.4
(18)		0.5
(T5)		21%
(13)		1.54
(9.09)		86.621
Rachaad White3.4
(3)		0.8
(T2)		28%
(3)		1.52
(9.51)		89.819
Brian Robinson3.6
(3)		0.5
(T5)		22%
(11)		1.53
(9.36)		92.427
Hassan Haskins2.4
(T11)		0.3
(14)		25%
(4)		n/a60.513
Jerrion Ealy2.1
(13)		0.5
(T5)		9%
(32)		1.55
(8.78)		131.429
Kennedy Brooks3.3
(5)		-0.3
(32)		24%
(7)		1.52
(9.51)		118.924

Draft Articles

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Positional Value, Free Agency, and the Draft
Date: 03/20/22
A look at the cost of different positions in free agency, how the value of positions have been changing, and what it means for how to approach both FA and the draft. Also a quick look at the Eagles moves. Read more
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Our Consensus Mocks Are Always Wrong. And What a Howie Draft Could Look Like
Date: 03/17/22
A look back at the top consensus mocked players for Eagles picks shows consensus is almost never right on the player and rarely right on the position. And I take a shot at playing Howie through days 1 and 2 with a very different looking draft. Read more
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5 Mid To Late Round Players That Could Turn The Eagles Into Contenders
Date: 03/14/22
If the first half of the draft was defense centric, the back half is all about helping Hurts and the offense. The WANTS Read more
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5 Players The Philadelphia Eagles Need To Draft 
Date: 03/11/22
Five positions. Five players. A franchise altering draft awaits. Read more
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Trading Down: History of Trades and Who May Want to Trade Up With the Eagles
Date: 03/07/22
A look back at past 1st round trades that could inform what Howie's options are this year if he wants to move down. Also, some potential scenarios and teams that could want to move up. And a bonus trade down mock draft at the end. Read more
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“Doctor” Strange Is A Marvel - The Evolution of Football Super Hero, Cole Strange
Date: 03/04/22
“I am not very satisfied with what I’ve accomplished so far. It really helps drive me in order to achieve better things. I want to have done something that I can really be proud of” If that isn’t the very definition of a hungry dog, I don't know what is. Read more
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What I Learned Looking Back On My 2021 NFL Eagles Mock Draft
Date: 03/02/22
When a team continually shows you who they are, believe them! Read more
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Offseason Assumptions, a Mock, and What Howie May Look For
Date: 03/01/22
My set of assumptions on the Eagles offseason, a final pre-Combine mock draft, and what I am interested in seeing at the Combine. Read more
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Running Backs: Elusiveness, Explosiveness, and Potential Day 3 Gems
Date: 02/28/22
With the Eagles re-committing to the run game, finishing with the 3rd best run attack behind the second best offensive line Run Block Win Rate, and Miles Sanders entering the final year of his rookie deal, a look at what college traits translate to NFL success and who could be day 3 draft gems. Read more
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A Look at the Eagles Pass Rush and Offseason Priorities
Date: 02/24/22
A look at what is affecting the Eagles pass rush - yes it needs better talent, but QBs are consistently throwing quickly against this defense. Plus, the offseason moves I would make in free agency and a mock draft. Read more
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2022 NFL Eagles Mock Draft and FA Targets
Date: 02/23/22
Pre Combine, Post Senior Bowl, Eagles Only Mock with 2 Free Agent Read more
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Cole Strange Appreciates Aggression and Toughness, you will appreciate him
Date: 02/17/22
When asked what he believes to be the most important skill set to being an offensive lineman "Playing aggressive, and tough and mean" Philly would love this guy! Read more
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Punt God, Midnight Oil, 80’s Music, and Prospects Close To Your Heart
Date: 02/15/22
Who are YOUR guys in the upcoming 2022 NFL Draft ? Not the consensus #1’s but the players from college teams you watch or guys you studied and have an affinity for. Read more
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Drafting a Punter Makes Analytical Sense... And Yes, This Year There is a Punt God
Date: 02/15/22
A look at the analytics of punting - what makes a good punter, does it make sense to draft a punter and where, and what the Eagles should do in the 2022 draft. Spoiler - there is a Punt God this year but it's not who you think... it's Penn State's Jordan Stout. Read more
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2022 Philadelphia Eagles Free Agent Wish List
Date: 02/04/22
As opined during the Championship Games, a QB is only as good as their third receiver. JJAW, Reagor and Ward should not be filling that role going into 2022. Read more
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State of the Philadelphia Eagles, Off Season 2022
Date: 01/25/22
Read more

Positional Value, Free Agency, and the Draft

The free agency period raises 90% of my annoyances with football. No matter how much history shows playing in the mid-range of the free agent market has the best outcomes and that the high-end, especially aging players on multi-year deals, more often than not results in regret and future cap issues, fans always want the top-end, big names. If you are somebody that wanted Howie to sign Allen Robinson AND Marcus Williams AND J.C. Jackson AND Chandler Jones AND Bobby Wagner AND Myles Jack and frequently tweets “lol the cap isn’t real”, maybe click away now…

If you are still here, I’ll give a quick view on the cap and if you believe in the cap, skip ahead a paragraph. The simplest analogy for the “cap isn’t real” people is saying “my take-home pay isn’t real.” Sure, I can make my take-home pay irrelevant this month and next month by buying things on credit. But my overall financial situation becomes very real soon enough. Pushing player money into the future is buying on credit. A team – if they aren’t in an already bad cap situation (dead cap) – can make the cap “not real” this year, maybe next but it all comes due at some point. It could/would make sense for teams that think they are close to winning a championship (the Chargers this year)… it will ultimately turn out to be a huge regret for teams that aren’t close (Jacksonville paying way above market this year).

The cost and value of positions in free agency

But the point of this article is to look at what different positions cost in free agency and the relative value of each (and how teams should think about free agency vs. the draft).

First a look at what free agents cost in each position group. The first table is the average annual cost (AAV) for the top 5 free agents at each position from 2019 to 2021. The second table is the same but is for the top 10 free agents by position.

Couple of points:

  • Ignore the QB data – starters rarely hit free agency so these numbers are almost always backups. But some starters do hit – Brady and Rivers in 2020 for example – which swing these averages greatly. I almost left QBs off but here they are.
  • The most expensive positions in free agency are the premium positions – pass catchers, pass rushers, pass defenders, and tackles. OLB is separated from LBs above because OLBs are pass rushers (Haason Reddick, Bud Dupree, and Za’Darius Smith).
  • At the bottom of free agency cost are positions like running back, linebacker, defensive tackle, and safety (more on safety later as this could be changing) that have been de-valued recently.

Now, a look at the cost of different tiers of free agents (top 5 by AAV, the 6-10 free agents by AAV, 11-15, and so on) by position. Also included is the current state of the top 5 free agents at each position so far in 2022.

Note that the 2022 free agent class is still in progress so average cost of free agents isn’t useful yet. But we can use the cost of the top 5 – the cost of the top 5 2022 free agents cannot go down from here. If other FAs are signed at higher AAVs, it will only increase the 2022 numbers above. For that reason, ignore the positions that are dropping in value – the full picture isn’t known yet. But the positions that have increased in value is important.

Top-end wide receivers are up over 16% in 2022 from the past 3 year average and OLB pass rushers are up over 50%. Safeties and interior OL are both up a lot as well. Corners and DTs are up a little.

Some of this is the because of better players hitting the market but it nowhere near tells the entire story. This next view shows for each position the quality of free agents in each tier measured by Approximate Value (AV). If you aren’t familiar with AV, it is a metric from Pro Football Reference that is the best single value metric for players – it measure every player’s impact on scoring and is highly correlated with team wins, player performance, EPA, and almost any other metric that measures success. The nice thing with AV is it is a number that every position has (unlike EPA).

Costs for the top pass-rushing OLBs is up over 56% in 2022 and the OLBs that have signed this year are “better” – in 2022, OLBs have an average AV of 8.24 vs. 7.33 in the 2019-2021 period. But this does not explain the rise in prices totally – when you compare player quality (AV) to cost, teams were “paying” 1.28M per AV the last 3 years but in 2022, they are willing to “pay” 1.66M per AV. This means 29% (the far right column) of the rise in OLB free agent costs in 2022 is teams just paying more.

The other interesting one is receiver and one that we all are familiar with. The top 2022 WR free agents are being paid 16% more in 2022 but the quality of these receivers as measured by AV is actually down this year. Teams are hugely bidding up WR prices this year, almost doubling (up 76%), much more than the quality of WRs can explain. And we all can see this – Jacksonville WAY exceeded the market signing Christian Kirk ($2.4M per AV) and Zay Jones ($3.4M per AV). Allen Robinson is also almost double his value ($2.0M per AV). All five of the top WRs signed exceeded historical averages. If these receivers really take a step up in performance, than they grow into their value but it is a big leap to think these receivers, especially the older ones, will perform that much better.

Tight ends stick out here as well – a smaller sample size but they have been bid up in recent years while the quality has also been questionable. New England inexplicably WAY overpaid for Jonnu Smith ($5.4M/AV) and Hunter Henry ($3.8M/AV) last year… Jacksonville signing Tyler Eifert ($2.9M/AV) and Cleveland signing Austin Hooper ($2.3M/AV) in 2020… every one of these is a bad deal.

And lastly, safeties. Safety has historically been de-prioritized from a contract perspective – remember the first chart had safety as the 3rd lowest paid position on average and one that has decreased recently. But 2022 so far has been huge for safeties – the average pay for the top 5 signed in 2022 so far is up 34% with several expected high priced free agents still remaining. And when you compare it to the quality of free agents this year, the cost normalized to player value is up 59% and will go up more once the remaining free agents sign.

Maybe safety is an anomaly this year and will revert back to a lower paid position. But I believe the Staley / Fangio / Eberflus defenses (which includes Gannon’s) taking over the league may be driving a re-look at the value of safety and what is needed. Teams are playing more two-high and split-field safeties that have deep responsibility but expected to be able to come in against the run. Kansas City and the Jets both play a lot of two-high and signed safeties much above market. Baltimore signed Marcus Williams, the top safety available this year, and play a lot of Cover 1, but value his coverage and ball skills.

Thoughts on the Eagles initial free agent moves

The general feeling on the Eagles free agent moves so far is somewhere between disappointment and anger. I am less negative than most as I thought the big names were neither realistic nor smart moves, but share some of the concern. They must come away with a receiver and they will – most of the big names I shake my head at but Robert Woods (trade, not free agent, but same thing) would have been nice. Some thoughts:

Pass rusher: Haason Reddick was a favorite of many and obviously the big move the Eagles have made so far. Reddick valued at at $2.0M/AV, slightly below the average of the top 5. Given his age and what he brings, this is an amazing signing – not only for who he is, but the relative value.

Wide receiver: I still would like Jarvis Landry, Jamison Crowder, or Keelan Cole. All have good hands and would (should, but who knows this year) be affordable. Everybody is focused on a big receiver (which would be nice but there aren’t a ton of them) but the Eagles could really use a slot receiver. They just need another good option that can take some focus away from DeVonta and Goedert. They should invest here again in the draft.

Safety: I am ok with Anthony Harris coming back on a one-year but Marcus Williams (at the right price) would have been nice. I still think somebody like Deshon Elliott or Jaquiski Tartt is needed. A lot want Tyran but ignore that he had back-to-back down years and is honestly about the same right now as McLeod or Harris. And a lot have Terrell Edmunds and Jayron Kearse on their wishlists but both are really box safeties and not what I think the Eagles are looking for. I would invest very high in the draft here – I would absolutely go after Daxton Hill or Lewis Cine.

Linebacker: They are affordable in free agency and the Eagles should bring depth in, although I think they are more positive on TJ Edwards and Davion. Kyzir White and Josey Jewell are two I like.

Defensive Tackle: Fletch is a more complicated discussion. On the restructured deal the Eagles are paying him $14M a year or $2.0M/AV vs. $1.5M/AV as the average for the top five DTs this year. Is he overpaid? Yes. If you consider him a top 10 free agent, his contract should be in the $8-9M / year range. But remember, Fletch had a $25M dead cap hit so the way to think about it is would you rather pay $14M for a 7AV Fletch or $25M for nothing? I thought Tim Settle who signed with Buffalo for 2 years, $9M would have been a great addition but maybe the Eagles didn’t look at him or he wanted to go to Buffalo. Monday I posted what I thought was a non-chalk mock for the Eagles where I went with Devonte Wyatt in the first (and no EDGE) and within an hour, the news hit on Fletch, making a draft like that much more likely.

Cornerback: I am not sure what the Eagles plan is here but think they believe in Zech more than we all think. I thought Rasul Douglas would be an interesting return as he fits Gannon’s scheme much better, but also thought it would probably be an overpay because of his year last year. Nelson could still make sense. Mike Hughes is a zone corner that tackles well and would fit. Xavier Rhodes and Mike Alford are both old, but could be a stop-gap. But again, they need to draft here.

What does this mean for free agency and the draft?

The premium positions are really hard to get in free agency and when you do, teams pay up significantly for them. Stating the obvious but pass rushers, corners, receivers, tackles (and quarterbacks) should be continually invested in via the draft.

Below shows the average AV for each position by draft round. As context on AV, top players will be in the 6-8 range (which is where the top 5 free agents are) with truly elite players even higher – the very top elite players will be 10-12 or higher. Any AVs in the 2-3 range are really replacement level players – it really shows that getting any starters in the third round or later is tough.

The premium positions are at the top and outlined in red. Average AV for these positions is often in the 4 range which reflects players that bust in top rounds, but if you want good corners, pass rushers, tackles, and receivers, (1) it is unsustainable and too expensive to continually use free agency to acquire them and (2) you better draft them high.

Again, this isn’t revolutionary but teams don’t always follow this and fans wanting to spend on every free agent misses the long-term implications. Howie is mostly right on positional value except for cornerback and we see the results – over the last 10 years we have either had to pay in free agency/trade (Slay) or continued to bring in a long list of hopeful stopgaps.

Don’t get annoyed when we don’t sign every big-name free agent. The Eagles actually have the 3rd highest average free agent ranking (the average slotting of free agents) while being best in the league in pay vs. value. What they are doing is right philosophically. Do they get every move right? No. Are there players they miss on? Yep. Do they need to add more this year? Absolutely, and they will. But the Eagles do what is shown to have the best value.

Our Consensus Mocks Are Always Wrong. And What a Howie Draft Could Look Like

It is almost impossible right now to find an Eagles mock that doesn’t include the same players. One of the EDGEs – Jermaine Johnson, Travon Walker, David Ojabo, and George Karlaftis… a corner like Andrew Booth or Trent McDuffie or recently, a lot hopefully have Stingley falling to them… a LB like Devin Lloyd or Nakobe Dean… or a big-bodied receiver like Treylon Burks.

But what if a lot of these players are gone which is increasingly looking likely? Or what if the Eagles just have different plans? In 2020 we all collectively lost our minds at home as they went with the wrong receiver and a round 2 quarterback seemingly out of nowhere?

A look back at the Eagles top picks vs. expectations

Two sites that aggregate mock drafts to get the most commonly mocked players are Grinding The Mocks and NFL Mock Draft Database. Here are the Eagles most commonly mocked picks the past 3 years:

YearRoundTop Mocked PicksActual Pick
20191CB DeAndre Baker
OT Yodny Cajuste
S Dionte Thompson 		OT Andre Dillard
2S Darnell Savage
WR Marquise Brown
S Chauncey Gardner		RB Miles Sanders
20201WR Justin Jefferson
WR Henry Ruggs
WR Tee Higgins		WR Jalen Reagor
2CB Jeff Gladney
WR KJ Hamler
WR Brandon Aiyuk		QB Jalen Hurts
20211TE Kyle Pitts
WR Jaylen Waddle
WR DeVonta Smith		WR DeVonta Smith
2LB Nick Bolton
CB Asante Samuel Jr
WR Terrace Marshall		IOL Landon Dickerson

Of the first two rounds over the past 4 years, only once was a top three mocked player actually the pick – DeVonta in 2021. And that required a trade-up when draft day actually came. Two other times the right position was mocked: in 2019 tackle Yodny Cajuste was the second most frequently mocked player when Dillard was selected and in 2020 we all know what happened at pick 21… Half of these players weren’t even available at the Eagles pick (8 of the 16 commonly mocked players).

There are a few things I’ve learned and adjusted thinking on:

1. It really is about the trenches: David (only partially) jokes that you could mock only DL or OL and be right most of the time. In the Howie era, 7 of 13 R1 picks and 9 of 23 R1 and R2 picks have been on the lines.

2. Expect surprises: The Eagles always “surprise” the fans compared to the mocks and I’m talking about which positions are taken, not Reagor vs. Jefferson. Corner has been a top need and top mocked player each of the last 3 years and wasn’t taken. After Howie famously declared “are they healthy?” as one of his draft pillars in 2020, he drafts Landon Dickerson in 2021 (who I loved but wrongly wouldn’t mock because of this). Taking Hurts in 2020 after committing to Wentz. Goedert when we had Ertz.

3. Don’t ignore traits: I was one of many that wanted Terrace Marshall in the 2nd last year and Matt Alkire reminded me that the Eagles won’t take a WR that can’t block. Same with running backs. And for LBs and CBs, they better tackle. The Eagles have also consistently taken highly athletic prospects – just go search RAS for green and you will up your chances of picking their players. And lastly, character / culture is always important.

A very different but very Eagles 3 round mock

So what could we be wrong on this year? With three firsts, it is surprising how consistent the names mocked to the Eagles are right now. Both Grinding the Mocks and NFL Mock Draft Database show Eagles draft expectations in the 1st are heavily EDGEs (Jermaine Johnson, Ojabo, Karlaftis), LBs (Devin Lloyd and Nakobe Dean), C (Tyler Linderbaum even after Kelce announced his return), and CB (Andrew Booth).

This started for my own sanity – to think about a draft that isn’t what we are all thinking and prepare myself when I hated the picks. Which happens way more often that not. In the draft below, I try to think like Howie and get a draft where inthe first two days, no EDGEs and no linebackers are taken and an offensive line pick at a position without apparent need. But I could see Howie doing all of this. And strangely, I would actually walk away happy with these players. For each pick I did my best Howie impersonation, explaining each pick reflecting his philosophy and draft track record:

Day 1

The first round does not go well for those of us that want one of the EDGEs or CBs as both positions have runs ahead of us when QBs aren’t taken high. The following are off the board by the Eagles first pick:

  • Five EDGEs – Hutchinson, Walker, Johnson, Thibodeaux, and Karlaftis
  • Three CBs – Gardner, Stingley, and McDuffie
  • Three OTs – Ekwonu, Neal, and Cross
  • One DT – Jordan Davis
  • One S – Kyle Hamilton
  • One WR – Garrett Wilson

R1-15: DL Devonte Wyatt, UGA

Question: “At pick 15, there were a lot of great players available – what was the thought process when the Eagles were on the clock?”

Howie: “Last year I promised if the highest graded player sitting there was a linemen, we would take them and Devonte is a great example of that. We thought he would go in the top 10 and definitely thought he wouldn’t make it past Baltimore so it wasn’t a hard decision for our team when we were up. We see a lot of Fletch in Devonte and like Milton last year, he can affect play from multiple positions.”

Interesting fact: Asked at the Combine if he could play running back, Wyatt replied “Easily. If they put me back there I’d look like Derrick Henry.”

R1-16: OT/G Trevor Penning, Northern Iowa

Question: “Tackle wasn’t a top need going into the draft with Lane and Jordan, why did you see it as a need here?”

Howie: “We always say tackle is the second most important position behind quarterback and it’s a position we will always value highly. Unfortunately, almost every year we have seen the need to have quality depth as injuries happen. Trevor brings the flexibility to play tackle and guard which we value highly. And he is an amazing young man – a great leader, he plays incredibly hard, and our coaches fell in love with him at the Senior Bowl… if you watch him play, he’s a guy we frankly didn’t want to have to face on another team.”

Interesting fact: Trevor models his game after Lane Johnson and they share freakishly similar athletic profiles:

Two WRs come off the board at picks 17 and 18 with the Chargers taking Chris Olave and the Saints taking Jameson Williams.

R1 (trade down): S Lewis Cine, UGA

Question: “Safety is a position that the Eagles have never prioritized high before – what drives the change this year?”

Howie: “Well, for a lot of years we’ve been lucky to have some great players like Malcolm and Rodney at the position that allowed us to invest elsewhere. But safety is a bit different role now in Jonathan’s scheme – they are going to play deep a lot but it relies on safeties to be able to come in quickly against the run. It isn’t a free safety, strong safety world anymore and you need players that are athletes, have high-level play recognition, and understands how to work in coordination with the rest of the secondary. There wasn’t a player in college better at everything we need a safety to do than Lewis. And when you get to sit down and talk with him, you realize how much a student of the game he is, what type of leader he is even on a team filled with talent like Georgia was.”

Interesting fact: No other safety – not Hamilton, not Daxton, not Brisker, none – both played as many deep safety snaps (65% of snaps) while also being as productive in run support (11 run stops).

Day 2

Safety, linebacker, and EDGE dominate day 2 mocks for the Eagles right now and while Howie has widened the positions drafted in round 2, the positions drafted most often lean towards the premium positions and offensive weapons – 5 CBs, 3 WRs, 3 LBs, and 2 TEs.

R2-51: WR Christian Watson, North Dakota State

Question: “After missing out on receivers in free agency, did receiver become a more pressing need here?”

Howie: “We are confident in our receiver room right now but as we said earlier in the offseason, we want to continue to add skill players to the offense but won’t force a position or a style of receiver as that hasn’t worked in the past. When our pick came up, we saw a player that has such unique size and speed and does all the things you want – he runs, he blocks, he plays the way you want – we thought he could go in the first. Every year we see that it’s very hard to get receivers in free agency because everybody wants them, it’s just not sustainable to try to find them that way – when you have a player like Christian that falls to you, you have to take him.”

Interesting fact: Watson holds the 5th best (out of 2,557) Relative Athletic Score profile among receivers since 1987.

R3-83: CB Cam Taylor-Britt, Nebraska

Question: “You’ve been collecting a lot of young talent at corner, how does Cam fit in?”

Howie: “We love the guys we have in right now but you can never have too many corners. We got to meet Cam at the Senior Bowl and you just see a player that loves to play, plays hard all of the time, and has the high confidence you want. When you look at his time at Nebraska, he played both man and zone and at a high level, he understands the handoffs and communication needed in the secondary, and he was really good against the run. He’s a player we can see coming in and fitting this defense.”

Interesting fact: He is best in the Big Ten with 18 interceptions and PBUs over the past two seasons.

Hope you enjoyed this, it is meant to not be just another mock, but a different take looking at how consensus is rarely right, what could happen, and how I think Howie could approach the draft based on his history and philosophy.

5 Mid To Late Round Players That Could Turn The Eagles Into Contenders

Below are the luxury picks, the WANTS. The Eagles may not need all of them right away, but they’re players that can elevate a good roster to a great one.

If the first half of the draft was defense centric, the back half is all about helping Hurts and the offense. The WANT to add depth on the Offensive line to keep the QB upright, while adding more weapons to assist in lighting up the score board.

Want a G/C:

Cole Strange Dohnovan West, Dylan Parham, James Empey, Cameron Jurgens

Want a RB:

Brian Robinson Jr, Hassan Haskins, Dameon Pierce

Want a TE:

Jeremy Ruckert, Cole Turner, Cade Otton, Lucas Krull

(Still) Want a S: Smoke Monday, Nick Cross, Bryan Cook, Kerby Joseph

Want a P, just for @GregHartPA

Jordan Stout or Matt Araiza (7th round)

Late Round Mock:

95- Brian Robinson Jr.- Brian picks up yards after contact, and is a punishing finisher. He uses his legs and his 6’1 225 lb frame to gain those tough short yardage when needed on 3rd and 4th and one. Would be a great rotational back and possibly Miles Sanders future replacement.

100- Cole Strange- Cole could groom for a year under Kelce, if the Eagles view him as a Center, while he spends 2022 as an all purpose back up along the O Line. Cole brings aggression, and the work ethic the Eagles demand from the position.

150- Cole Turner- The Eagles want another pass catching TE to pair with Goedert, and with project Tyree Jackson out for a large part of the season, they will probably be drafting one. Cole Turner has proven to be a pass catching wonder. Turner has good hands and ball tracking ability. At 6’6, he’s another big body who gets the separation needed to be a reliable target for Hurts.

160- Nick Cross- Cross, a former track star, has impressive speed and good ball skills for a safety. He would bring much-needed coverage ability from the S position, and give an immediate boost to the special teams.

220- Jordan Stout- 1 I don’t watch tape on punters like @GregHartPA, as he opined “I can picture how miserable you would be just holding a stopwatch, looking up into the sun, counting “One Mississippi…”

Special teams and flipping the field with a great punter is an often overlooked stat. I will let him make the case for Stout

Drafting a Punter Makes Analytical Sense… And Yes, This Year There is a Punt God – The Philly…
A look at the analytics of punting – what makes a good punter, does it make sense to draft a punter and where, and what…phillycovercorner.com

Again, I’m not speculating which teams Howie is trading with, and these picks are just approximate estimations.

Eagles current draft selections: 15, 16, 19, 51, 83, 123, 154, 162, 166, 205

For those keeping score, that would make the final draft haul

10 Picks:

15- Jermaine Johnson Edge

25- Nakobe Dean LB

33- Devonte Wyatt DT

53- Jalen Pitre S

90- Skyy Moore WR

95- Brian Robinson Jr. RB

100- Cole Strange OL

150- Cole Turner TE

160- Nick Cross S

220- Jordan Stout P

5 Defensive Players

4 Offensive Players

1 Special Teams

As always, thank you for reading

David

Follow me @PHLEagleNews

Follow Greg @GregHartPA

3/14/2022

National Pi Day Is Here And These Deals Are Far From Irrational
Happy Pi Day

5 Players The Philadelphia Eagles Need To Draft 

The chances that the Eagles use all 3 of their first round picks would seem to be slim to none. Howie even eluded to that during the combine when he stated he didn’t NEED to use them all. That sounded like an open invitation to all buyers. With the intention of soliciting offers completed, the Eagles are open for business, as ususal.

I am not going to speculate which teams Howie makes a trade with, other than to say in the first round it will probably be one of the QB needy franchises. It seems likely the Eagles end up with an extra first in 2023 and an additional 2nd in 2022. This would still allow them to draft 5 of the first 83 players.

Need an EDGE: 

Round One: Aidan Hutchinson, Kayvon Thibodeaux, Trevon Walker, Jermaine Johnson, David Ojabo, and George Karlaftis

Defensive End in the first round is a lock.

I want and edge rusher who has impressed at the Senior Bowl, the combine, and most importantly, on tape. Jermaine is a player rising up draft boards. I want Jermaine Johnson. I have been steadfast in Ojabo or Jermaine since Decemeber. I love both of them, but would lean Jermaine. Eagles seem to be smitten with Ojabo.

Tier Two: N/A, they have to make a day one selection. A Second day player would just be bonus depth. Ebikeite, Myjai Sanders, or GA DT Devonte Wyatt. Probable day 3 DE, Jeffrey Gunter and LB/Edge hybrid Jesse Luketa should both interest the Birds as well. I’d bet on the Eagles drafting 2 edge rushers or 1 edge 1 DT within the top 75 pics.

Need a S: 

Round One: Kyle Hamilton, then everyone else. Daxton Hill

Tier Two: Lewis Cine, Jaquan Brisker, Jalen Pitre, or probable day 3 Leon O’Neal Jr.

If Hamilton isn’t one of the first five picks selected, I would move up and get him. Even at the expense of two firsts. He is that good. I think he is the best player in the 2022 NFL draft. 

Need a LB: 

Round One: Nakobe Dean or Devin Lloyd

Tier Two- Chad Muma, Quay Walker, Christian Harris, Channing Tindall

I have recently written of using the Eagles past tendencies to project their future actions. “When a team shows you who they are, believe them!”

 What I Learned, Looking Back On My 2021 NFL Eagles Mock Draft
The good, the bad, the indifferentmedium.com

But this year, all bets are off! They have 3 first round picks, and an opportunity to move all around the board to select whatever they want.

LB position analysis: The Eagles really like TJ Edwards. So much so, that when Howie spoke about the position during the combine, TJ was the only LB he mentioned. The Eagles know they have a dire need at this position. They have seen the value of the position wearing a Cowboys uniform. I think this could be the year they finally take a LB in round one. Lloyd or Dean are both worthy, and both capable of changing the entire complexion of the position.

Need a CB: 

Round One: Derek Stingley Jr., Ahmad Gardner, Trent McDuffie, Andrew Booth Jr., Kaiir Elam

Tier Two- Tariq Woolen, Kyler Gordon

If the Eagles are serious about fixing this position, Stingley Jr could be the pick. He may be there at 15, or only require a small move up. Gardner is great, but will probably be a top 10 pick. If Elam fell to a day two selection (ala Kevin King in 2017) the Eagles should pounce. He is only 20 years old and has a high ceiling. I have Kaiir ranked as a first round talent in the draft. I also really like later round option Tariq Woolen. It appears there is a lot of upside there to like. He could end up being a steal if he falls into the 3rd round.

Need a WR: 

Top Tier- Treylon Burks. For me its Burks in the first round, or wait until later. The Eagles may see it differently. If so; Garrett Wilson Drake London, Chris Olave, Jameson Williams are all first rounders.

Tier Two- Jahan Dotson, David Bell, Skyy Moore, Erik Ezukanma, and Jalen Tolbert. If the Eagles don’t select a wide out in round one, Bell or Skyy in round 2 or Ezuk in the third or very early 4th makes a lot of sense.

The Eagles free agent plan will alter the draft in many ways. The front office could choose to accommodate DeVonta Smith by paying a wide receiver on the open market versus using a high value draft pick.

2022 Philadelphia Eagles Free Agent Wish List
The Eagles are heading into the 2022 NFL Draft loaded with 10 picks, including three first-rounders for the first time…medium.com

15- Jermaine Johnson, edge. need it.

25- Nakobe Dean (It’s time) I think everyone would be just as happy with Devin Lloyd as well. Dean would play the same role with the Eagles, Lloyd would have to adjust some. They’re both great. Get one!

33- Devonte Wyatt – Building through the lines is a core belief.

53- Jalen Pitre- They need a S in this defensive scheme, they get one.

90- Skyy Moore The Eagles are very high on Quez. I am too, but I would want to stockpile as many weapons as I could.

  • Draft # selection is just an approx. Again, I am not trying to speculate who Howie trades with and where each exact pick ends up. Just a general range. Five of the first 100 picks should easily be attained.

Admittedly this is a defensive heavy mock, for a team that just doesn’t draft many defensive players this high. It also seems like a top heavy defensive draft in general. The value may be in the offensive players that fall in the 95–150 range. 

OL’s Cole Strange, Cade Mays, James Empey, Cameron Jurgens

TE’s Jeremy Ruckert, Cade Otton, Cole Turner and Lucas Krull

RB’s Jerome Ford, Brian Robinson Jr., Dameon Pierce, Hassan Haskins

The Eagles like value, so maybe they play this draft the way it falls, and select a combination of best player available meets positional need.

Jermaine– The Eagles need an Edge, Jermaine is a good one to have.

Nakobe could be available in the early 20’s. If Howie reads the board that way, move down a couple spots and earn a higher 2nd or 3rd round selection. 

Devonte Wyatt Would be able to contribute from day one. Possesses elite quickness for a 315 lb man. If he adds more strength and a bull rush to the aresenal, he will be an elite DT, period. 

Jalen Pitre One of the better safety’s, not named Hamilton, in the draft. I have him ranked around 50th overall.

Skyy Moore Wide receiver is a bigger need than it should be, but if you’re looking at the position and seeing more than 2 starting caliber wideouts, I would disagree. They will probably have 5 WR’s on the final roster. Smith, Quez, and Reagor. JJaw could make the team for his special team efforts alone. I hope they draft a wideout in rounds 2–4 (Skyy or Ezukanma) AND add a veteran. DeVonta Smith has stated how invaluable it would be for him to learn from a seasoned pro. The Eagles should accomadate him.

The only caveat to this list for me would be if Stingley or Gardner fall to a level the Eagles feel comfortable moving up for. They could then address the LB position in the 50 range with Chad Muma or Christian Harris OR pick 83 with Quay Walker or Channing Tindall.

Five positions. Five players. A franchise altering draft awaits.

Let me know your thoughts and as always, thank you for reading.

David 3/10/2022

Follow me @PHLEagleNews

Follow Matt @MattAlkire

Follow Greg @GregHartPA

Trading Down: History of Trades and Who May Want to Trade Up With the Eagles

Not sure there is anybody, including Howie, that believes Howie will make all three picks in the 1st round this year. Many want to grab a 2023 1st to give the Eagles QB options after this year which makes sense. But what do trade-ups into the middle of the round where the Eagles are sitting look like, especially in a weak QB class?

Possible Eagles trade-down scenarios

Trade-down mock draft

History of 1st round trade-ups

Below lists all of the trade-ups over the past five years within several selections of the Eagles first and last pick (anywhere from 12 to 26).

2017 Draft Trade-Ups

I included this as it includes a future 1st and while 2022 isn’t looked at as a good QB class, QB-needy teams always reach for QBs. There are several needy teams and the Eagles mid-round picks could end up being valuable.

Houston moves up from 25 to 12 for a franchise QB
Houston trades up from 25 to 12 for QB Deshaun Watson. Cleveland receives 1-25 and a 2018 1st.

2018 Draft Trade-Ups

Several interesting trades in 2018 – two for LBs, a top corner, and a top DE that was falling. One includes a future 1st when Green Bay moved back to the back of the 1st.

New Orleans gets a top defensive end, moving up from 27 to 14
The Saints were thought to move up, but instead of taking Lamar Jackson, they move up and take Marcus Davenport, a highly athletic DE and who turned out to be the best from that class, at 1-14. They send 1-27, 5-147, and a 2019 1st to Green Bay.
Note that whether you believe in the draft value chart or not, all of the trades listed here are pretty close to balancing except this one – in a lopsided trade, New Orleans gave up 538 points for 325 points.

Green Bay deals again, moving up to 18 for a shutdown corner
The Packers send the just acquired 1-27 along with 3-76 and 6-186 to Seattle for 1-18 and 7-248 to take CB Jaire Alexander. After trading away CB Damarious Randall, this move up filled a position of need.

Buffalo moves up 22 to 16 for a LB
After trading up for Josh Allen, the Bills trade up again, getting pick 16 (LB Tremaine Edmunds) and 5-154 from Baltimore in exchange for 1-22 and 3-65. Buffalo had an extra 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in 2018 after the prior year KC trade-up for Mahomes and Sammy Watkins trade.

Another LB trade-up, Tennessee moves up from 25 to 22
The Titans move up for LB Rashaan Evans, sending 1-25 and 4-125 to Baltimore for 1-22 and 6-215.

2019 Draft Trade-Ups

Again, a couple of interesting trade ups – one for a top EDGE and another for a top safety. It is not crazy that five EDGEs could be taken by the Eagles pick and while the Eagles are clearly going to take an EDGE, there could be demand for one of their picks get one of the remaining ones.

Washington moves up 20 spots from the 2nd to grab a falling DE at 26
Washington had already taken Dwayne Haskins at 15, but trade back into the 1st, getting 1-26 to take DE Montez Sweat (Sweat was a projected top-10 pick who dropped due to a misdiagnosed heart condition). The Colts receive 2-46 and a 2020 2nd.

Moving up from 30 to 21 for the top safety
Green Bay trades up from 30 to 21 for S Darnell Savage, sending Seattle 1-30, 4-114, and 4-118.

The Eagles move up from 25 to 22 for Andre Dillard
A move we all know well, the Eagles send 1-25, 4-125, and 6-197 to Baltimore for 1-22 and select OT Andre Dillard.

2020 Draft Trade-Ups

This is the 3rd of 11 trade-ups that were for a LB… who woulda known? Maybe the Eagles will want a LB this year, but if not, the top two of Lloyd and Dean may very well be sitting there when the Eagles pick this year and be an attractive trade-up for teams that prioritize LBs.

The Chargers move up 14 spots from the 2nd to grab a LB
LA trades up from R2-37 to 23 for LB Kenneth Murray, sending New England 2-37, 3-71. LA had already taken Justin Herbert and trades back into R1 for one of their top needs and the 2nd rated LB in the draft.

The Niners move up to 25 as a run on WRs occurs
Five WRs had already been taken by pick 22 and SF trades up from 31 to 25 for WR Brandon Aiyuk. Minnesota gets 1-31, 4-117, 5-176. Kyle Shanahan said they considered taking Aiyuk at 13 and knew that Miami at 26 was looking at Aiyuk (Miami then traded out of their pick once SF took Aiyuk).

2021 Draft Trade-Ups

This year EDGEs, corners, and receivers could dominate the top half of the first giving OL-needy teams a reason to move up like the Jets did last year for players like Charles Cross, Tyler Linderbaum, Trevor Penning, Zion Johnson, and Kenyon Green in the middle of the 1st.

The Jets move up to 14 and get protection for their new QB
New York trade 1-23, 3-66, and 3-86 to Minnesota for 1-14 and 4-123 to take one of their top draft targets, OG Alijah Vera-Tucker, a player they had as a top-10 graded prospect.

Who could trade up in 2022?

As much criticism as Howie gets on draft picks, his trades have largely been good including the fleecing of Miami and Indy last year – over the last 5 years, the Eagles / Dolphins 1st round swap last year is the second most lopsided trade at +389 draft value points to Philly using the Rich Hill model (the most lopsided is the Miami / San Francisco trade last year when SF moved up for Trey Lance, +489 draft value points for Miami in that trade). But as the above shows, it isn’t common to turn a mid-round pick into a future 1st – most future 1sts involve picks in the top-10 and are for quarterbacks. But here are some scenarios:

Green Bay makes Aaron Rodgers happy

Needs: QB, OL/OT, CB

If you follow Packers draft Twitter, they are as tortured as we are in Philly. While WR is always a need and on the wish list, everybody fully expects them to keep taking somebody on the defensive line. This year could be, and should be, different. Will Aaron Rodgers leave? Most likely not, but the Packers need to keep him happy and how better to do that than with another receiver. There are a lot of teams that could go WR ahead of them – the Jets at 10, Browns at 13, Eagles at any of our picks, Chargers at 17, Broncos at 21, Raiders at 22, Bills at 25, and Tampa Bay at 27. Five WRs have expected draft positions higher than the Packers pick at 28 and if they want one of the top guys, they will need to move up.

What it could look like: PHI sends 1-19 and 4-121 (307 points) to GB for 1-28 and a 2023 2nd (estimated 330 points)

Chance of happening: I really like this one. Green Bay has been aggressive, trading up in each of 2018 (to 18), 2019 (to 21), and 2020 (to 26), has to keep Rodgers happy, and they need another WR even if they keep free agent Davante Adams. Any of the Eagles picks should be in a great position to get one of the top WRs as only a couple may be off the board by then.

Falcons / Broncos / Lions / Jets use their extra draft capital

Needs: Falcons WR, OL, DL, CB, QB(?) / Broncos QB, EDGE, CB, LB / Lions QB, WR, DB, LB / Jets WR, LB, DB

This would look like the Chargers 2020 trade up for Kenneth Murray. Each of these teams have multiple 2nd round picks (Detroit has 1-32 and 2-34 actually), each could use secondary help, three need a receiver, and three could use a QB. Could one of them use their extra capital to move back into the 1st and grab a player of need that they passed on earlier?

What it could look like: PHI sends 1-19 (278 points) in exchange for an early 2nd (DET at 34, NYJ at 36, ATL at 40, DEN at 41) and 2023 2nd (estimated 267-296 points).

Chance of happening: Probably my second favorite out of this list. QBs will always have demand and make teams do crazy things and corners and receivers are always priority positions to draft high. None of these are crazy move ups and each of the teams have the capital to do it if there is a player they really want.

Pittsburgh Steelers get their Ben replacement

Needs: QB, OL/OT, CB

The Steelers are one of many QB-needy teams and sitting in a bad spot at 20 with four QB-needy teams ahead of them: CAR at 6, DEN at 9, WAS at 11, and NO at 18. Not all will take a QB and three of the four are ahead of the Eagles best pick anyway, but if the board falls right and the Steelers are worried about New Orleans taking whoever they are in love with, a small trade down could work.

What it could look like: PHI sends 1-16 (305 points) to PIT for 1-20 and 3-84 (320 points)

Chance of happening: Pretty low, like JJAW going 7/90 in a game. It takes the board falling right and the Steelers worrying about New Orleans instead of just waiting. Most likely the Steelers address QB via a trade – I wouldn’t be shocked to see PIT trade for Wentz actually.

Indianapolis bets on a young QB

Needs: QB, WR, OT, DL

It is all but certain that Indy will trade Wentz which puts them back in the market for a QB. Wouldn’t it be something to trade them back their 1st for another haul? Would Indy fall in love with a Matt Corrall or Sam Howell and they are there in the middle of the 1st?

What it could look like: PHI sends 1-19 (278 points) to IND for R5-174 and their 2023 1st (estimated 314 points)

Chance of happening: This would be so much fun to again get a 1st from Indy but think it has near zero chance – I just included it for the fun of it. First, I think Indy will sign or trade a QB and see what they have in 2023. Second, this is so far to move up. But the Colts have a good team that needs a QB – the Pro Bowl isn’t the be-all-end-all, but the Colts have seven going this year.

A trade-down mock

Given how Expected Draft Positions for top edges and corners are trending, I would not be surprised if Howie moves up from 15 and also trades down from 19. For this mock, five EDGEs and 3 CBs went before 15 taking a lot of commonly Eagles mocked players off the board. Below I made the following trade:

  • Eagles trade down out of the 1st for 2023 draft capital, sending 1-19 to the Jets for 2-36, 4-108, and a 2023 2nd.
  • The Jets, after taking Ekwonu and Ahmad Gardner with their first two picks, select WR Treylon Burks after moving up, filling one of their biggest needs

R1-15 EDGE Jermaine Johnson – <Insert> Eagles favorite edge rusher here, I will go with Johnson as he is the one with an EDP at 18
R1-16 CB Andrew Booth – I won’t pick a corner for the Eagles that isn’t a good zone corner that can help in run defense. Booth is one of three top CB prospects with a 70 or better grade in man, zone, and run defense (McDuffie and Gordon are the other two)
R2-36 S Lewis Cine – No other safety both played as many deep safety snaps (65% of snaps at a) while also being so productive in run support (11 run stops)
R2-51 DT Perrion Winfrey – An investment in the aging interior with somebody who basically confirmed a Philly fit when he said “I don’t like playing with people that accept mediocrity… I want to play with dogs.” We got dog mentality and hungry dogs. Oh and he has the 2nd best pass rush productivity of top DT prospects (Logan Hall)
R3-83 OL Jamaree Salyer – I don’t think he ends up higher than this but can’t pass him up and I would move up to get him. What’s not to like? Played all 5 OL positions, gave up 1 sack in 4 years in the SEC, and shut out Hutchinson / Ojabo / Enagbare this year.
R4-108 LB Troy Andersen – He’s like Davion but bigger – both athletic freaks (Combine numbers are weirdly identical) and both only played around 1400 snaps at LB.
R4-121 WR Reggie Roberson – A down year after his injury and betting on him now that he is healthy – he was over 4 yards per route run and averaging over 20 YPC prior to his injury.
R5-152 CB Akayleb Evans – Another dog: “I feel like I’m an underdog. A lot of people overlook me… But that’s ok, it’s better when you can sneak up on people.” Philly confirmed.
R5-160 RB Jerrion Ealy – 7th in college in yards after contact per attempt and the 5th best elusiveness rating.
R5-164 OT Luke Goedeke – A RT project that gives depth, he had the lowest pressure rate allowed in true pass sets in college this year.
R6-204 P Jordan Stout – My real punt god will be gone by here but whatever, I’m taking him. And he flew in his 40.

“Doctor” Strange Is A Marvel – The Evolution of Football Super Hero, Cole Strange

Watch out Marvel, “Doctor” Cole Strange doesn’t need sorcery to dominate mankind, he uses brute strength to impose his will upon opponents that dare to come in his path. His mission, to take over the NFL. When asked what he believes to be the most important skill set to being an offensive lineman, he replied

“Playing aggressive, and tough and mean”

Philly would love this guy!

“Dr Strange” was born Devin Cole Strange July 31, 1998. “I grew up in Lenoir City TN, I moved to Farragut (about 10 miles away) in middle school.”

Cole stated he comes from a close family. He has an older brother, Dylan and a younger sister, Anna. Neither of his parents played college sports, but he stated his father was close to playing for TN. “My dad coached me some in little league. He always preached about being self-motivated saying things like ‘you need to want to do this on your own.’ “

Those lessons have reverberated within him his whole life. Cole stated one of his most memorable football moments was when he was in the second round of the Pee Wee playoffs and they were “getting whooped 24–8”. He went to the team “The game’s not over until it’s over boys” Cole modestly stated he doesn’t believe that rallied troops, but they came back to tie the game in regulation, and won in overtime. The team went on to win the Pee Wee championship the following week.

That competitive, aggressive nature is in his DNA. When asked what sport he would play if it weren’t football he stated “I would wrestle or (engage) in some sort of combat sport. I was doing some Jiu Jitsu pre covid. There’s just something about the physicality and grit with those sports that are similar to football. Where you are imposing your will on another being”

Coles plays angry, and his actions do all the talking. “I’m not the ‘Ra-Ra’ guy, but I do see myself as a leader. I’m not too vocal, I’m more of a lead by example kind of player. (My teammates) would say that I’m a hard worker. Whether its in the weight room or on the field. I’m a reliable teammate”

Off the field Cole describes himself as a mild mannered homebody “One of my hobbies is that I collect records.” He continued “Lynyrd Skynyrd is one of my favorites. I also listen to guys like Metallica or Led Zeppelin. (And) I like reading”

The soon to be NFL lineman played HS football at Farragut High, 20 miles outside of Knoxville. It didn’t take long for him to make a name for himself on the field. Cole was an All-State selection as a senior at Farragut Academy, and was named KIL Defensive Player of the Year. The twice named team captain and two-time all-district also played in the Tennessee-Kentucky Border Bowl earning Defensive MVP & All-Bowl team. In addition to his football accolades, Cole was just as dominant in the classroom, as an Honor Roll student. 

His hard work and determination was recognized throughout his High School journey, and he was rewarded with scholarship offers. Including one for an opportunity to play relatively close to home.

“I actually signed with the Air Force coming out of high school, but I ultimately decided to stay close to home and obtained a scholarship to Chattanooga.” UTC is about a 90 minute drive from his families home.

Choosing UTC ended up being the best decision for Cole, and he wasted no time proving it was the right decision for them too.

As a 5-year starter on the offensive line (using the COVID exception for a sixth-year of eligibility in 2021) Cole, astonishingly, only allowed one sack in his college career across 582 drop backs. His only sack came from when he slid over to LT. So, his 1 sack came at a position he never played before. Cole never gave one up at guard during his 44 career starts at UTC. (41 at LG, 2 playing LT and 1 at C)

His high level of play were a factor in elevating the production of two UTC RBs. (Tyrell Price and Ailym Ford) They gained an average of 2.25 yards more per rushing attempt and 1.4 yards more per rush BEFORE CONTACT when running to the right side (the stat excluded runs to the right end, but the yards before contact are about the same).

Cole was awarded the Jacobs Blocking Award, given to the conference’s best blocker. (Corey Levin, current OG for the Titans and past Chattanooga Moc, also previously won the award.) Strange’s eye opening play attracted the attention of Phil Savage, and he was invited to participate in the Reese’s Senior Bowl. Strange more than held his own during a very impressive week in Mobile Alabama, and the scouting reports all throughout the process were positive.

Cole playing C during Reese’s Senior Bowl

“He just walls off the linebackers, and anyone else in his path”

“This kid is a finisher. Cole doesn’t just play to the whistle, he plays through it”

“Cole has one of the nastiest grips I’ve ever seen. In fact, when I think of grip from now on, he may be my example.”

“Strange possesses a high football IQ, elite on field awareness, and great athleticism”

His performance during Senior Bowl week, coupled with the style of play and attitude he brings to the field are traits all NFL GM’s covet on their offensive line. Cole met with all 32 teams while at the Senior Bowl. 

“We talked to every single NFL team, and it was kind of like a speed dating thing. We talked to 16 different teams for 15 minutes each on Monday, and then we did the other 16 team on Thursday.

His ascent to the National stage has only been surpassed by his rise up NFL draft boards. 

Whichever franchise selects Cole will love his attitude, and the intangibles he brings to a team. “Someone who is going to add to their culture. If the culture that they want to have is mean and tough and playing aggressive and someone who is going to work as hard as anyone else in the locker room.”

This April, he will find out which team he will be playing for, with the hopes to elevate them to an NFL Championship. Selfishly, I hope that team is in Philadelphia.

Cole would fit perfectly into an immediate all purpose backup role with the Eagles, while receiving tutelage under Jeff Stoutland. Cole can play Center, Guard, or even LT if needed. He has already proven himself to be a fast study. Strange played defensive end all throughout high school, then transitioned to playing soley on the offensive line in college.

Playing on the offensive line, unlike any other position, seems to be defined more by an individuals makeup, character and personal drive. If those are the characteristics the Eagles are valuing, then Strange will be on their board. He appreciates, competing, aggression, toughness and current Eagles center Jason Kelce. 

“He is one, if not the, best center in the league. I am absolutely a fan. He is someone I enjoy watching”

I can’t think of a better mentor for Cole anywhere else in the NFL.

During my conversation with Cole, his attitude reminded me of something Kelce famously said during the Eagles parade speech.

C Jason Kelce during his impassioned speech

“There is a quote in the O-line room that has stayed on the wall for the last five years. ‘Hungry dogs run faster.’ THAT’S THIS TEAM!”

Cole, when asked what he thought his biggest achievement was “I am not very satisfied with what I’ve accomplished so far. It really helps drive me in order to achieve better things. I want to have done something that I can really be proud of” If that isn’t the very definition of a hungry dog, I don’t know what is.

At the Combine in Indianapolis, Cole further described his sadistic side while on the playing field, and how he likes to flip the proverbial switch.

“I look at it as it’s the only place you can just kind of be a dick head. You know, you can hurt somebody, you can bury somebody, you can kind of give an elbow in their neck. And people kind of revere you for that. And also, it’s just fun, you know? Yeah, I just enjoy that.”

NFL Scouting Combine Spotlight: UTC Center Cole Strange
Cole at the NFL Combine, Indianapolis

The Eagles have already had one player who would flip a switch when they got on the football field. None other than NFL HOF legend Brian Dawkins. Cole described the evolution of his on field transformation “When I was younger, I remember my dad telling me to flip the switch on the football field. The place to be mean and aggressive, and off the field, you’re not that person.”

I showed Cole the video of Dawkins’ metamorphous into his on field persona, Weapon X .

“I love that!, I love him saying he’s Weapon X”

Brain Dawkins

Philadelphia loves that too! And they’re ready for another Marvel Hero.

Cole does have a degree in psychology and I asked him if he had any plans after football to utilize it. He indicated that a future Dr Strange isn’t as far fetched as it seems.

“I have considered it, if I’m lucky enough to play a long time in the NFL, I would certainly consider that!”

Paging Dr Strange…

A BIG thank you to Cole for his time. I wish you well in the draft and during your career. 

Follow Cole @ColeStrange2

As always, thank you for reading.

David 3/4/2022

Follow me @PhlEagleNews

What I Learned Looking Back On My 2021 NFL Eagles Mock Draft

When I revisited the 2021 draft for this article there were two things I learned that I hope to remember AND utilize before I finalize my 2022 mock in April.

One: Positions matter: When a team continually shows you who they are, believe them! Howie, nor the Eagles, have drafted a LB in the first round since Jerry Robinson in 1978. They haven’t drafted a Cornerback in round one since Lito Sheppard in 2002. Despite how much the fans want a top tier thumping LB or a clear cut shutdown first round corner, the Eagles have simply not invested draft capital into the position.

Ex: I mocked a CB in round 2 pick 37 (Eric Stokes) and a LB in rd 3 pick 70 (Jamin Davis) The Eagles selected Landon Dickerson in round two, and Milton Williams in round 3. Both picks stayed true to their overall core belief to build through the lines. Despite LB being perceived as a HUGE need, they didnt select a LB until the 7th rd in Patrick Johnson. 

Two: Drafting a long term replacement is rarely their strategy: Drafting to fill an immediate need, yes. Drafting a long term answer for a position (like a C to replace Kelce) is not usually in the cards. 

EX: The Eagles had an immediate need last year at WR, and drafted Devonta Smith round one. A long term replacement for Kelce, (I mocked C Jimmy Morrissey) was not addressed. Yet another perceived long term need, CB, wasn’t added until round 4, in Zech McPhearson.

Looking back on my projections, the rankings of the players weren’t bad. Picking the Eagles selections, was spotty at best. I was hoping to atleast be more accurate with the positions they drafted. Which brings me back to my intial statement. Positions matter. When someone shows you who they are time and time again, believe them.

So, I plan on taking all of the above into account going forward. The only problem in doing that this year, is that they have 3 first round picks. So if they were ever going to draft a LB or a CB in round one, this would be the year. Sadly, I will more than likely, disregard my own conclusions for this one unsual season. I will hope for a a corner to be drafted in round one, and I will hope for better success mocking their draft. 

As always, thank you for reading

follow me @PHLEagleNews 

My 2021 draft rankings for each position, and all Eagles mock, is below if you have interest.

3/1/22

Welcome to the 2021 NFL

April 4, 2021

Much like last year, the top end of the WR draft class includes two Alabama wide outs. Last year it was Ruggs and Jeudy, This draft it is DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle. Waddle is explosive in everything he does and was outperforming DeVonta prior to his regular season ending injury. DeVonta, the Heisman trophy winner, had record breaking stats all season long, and was putting on a show in the Championship game prior to his injury that kept him out the second half. The biggest concern with Smith is his size and concern for his health during a full season. There is also Ja’Marr Chase out of LSU who lots of scouts are projecting to be a generational talent. The Eagles should try and move up for Chase, he changes the entire outlook at the position for years to come. Waddle and Smith are both really good, but will probably leave the Eagles still needing another WR within a year or two.

There are so many needs on the Eagles team that this season will be difficult to project which positions they draft, much less the actual the player. It is also challenging due to the team having a new head coach and all new coordinators. Defensively, does the new DC, run cover 2 and value LB more than the Eagles have? Does the new OC and Head Coach Sirianni run an offense similar to what they did in Indianapolis or does he draft to build the system that he wants to run?

CB, WR, LB, C, S, DT, OL, RB, TE -BOLD are players I feel underrated at each position

The positions aren’t in any order, but the prospects at each position are.

Offense:

QB- Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Justin Fields, Trey Lance, Mac Jones, mid round favorite Kellen Mond

WR — Ja’Marr Chase(possibly a generational talent, I would trade up for him), Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith , Rashad Bateman, Kadarius Toney, Terrace Marshall Jr. , Elijah Moore, Rondale Moore, Amari Rodgers, Amon-Ra St Brown

RB- Najee Harris, Travis Etienne, Kenneth Gainwell (would be a great fit with Eagles), Javonte Williams, Trey Sermon, my mid round favorite Chuba Hubbard, Khalil Herbert, Michael Carter, Jermar Jefferson

TE- There is Kyle Pitts, then everyone else. Pat Freiermuth, Brevin Jordan, Tommy Tremble, Mason, Hunter Long and my late round favorite Cary Angeline

C- Creed Humphrey , Landon Dickerson, Josh Myers, Quinn Meinerz , Drake Jackson, Kendrick Green, Trey Hill, Michael Menet and late rounder Jimmy Morrissey(could be another 6th round C for the Eagles).

OG — Alijah Vera Tucker, Wyatt Davis Trey Smith, Ben Cleveland, Deonte, Brown, Mid Rd to late round favorites, Aaron Banks, Robert Hainsey and late round favorite Jack Anderson

OT- Penei Sewell and everyone else, Christian Darrisaw, Rashawn Slater, Teven Jenkins, Liam Eichenberg , Dillon Radunz, Samuel Cosmi, Alex Leatherwood, Jalen Mayfield

Defense:

CB — Caleb Farley, Jaycee Horn, Patrick Surtain II, Greg Newsome II , Elijah Molden, Eric Stokes, Kelvin Joseph, Ifeatu Melifonwu, Assante Samuel Jr. (I would trade up in round two to draft Jr.) , Tay Gowan, Zech McPhearson, Tyson Campbell and mid round favorite, Paulson Adebo

LB — Micah Parsons(Best LB in the draft, an argument could be made for the Eagles to draft him at 12, Howie would never), Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Zaven Collin, Nick Bolton, Jabril Cox, Jamin Davis, Barron Browining, Chazz Surratt, Dylan Moses, Pete Werner, and later round favorite Tony Fields II

S — Richie Grant, Trevon Moehrig, Hamsah Nasirildeen, Javon Holland, Andre Cisco, Jamar Johnson, Talanoa Hufanga, Ar’Darius Washington, Caden Sterns, Jacoby Stevens and my favorite late rd choice, Paris Ford

DE — Kwity Paye, Azeez Ojulari , Gregory Rousseau, Jaelan Phillips, Jayson Oweh. Carlos Basham Jr. , Dayo Odeyingbo, Quincy Roche, Shaka Toney, and late rd Jonathan Cooper

DT — Christian Barmore, Levi Onwuzurike, Daviyon Nixon, Marlon Tuipulotu, Jay Tufele , Alim McNeill, Tommy Togiai, Milton Williams and Jaylen Twyman.

The Eagles, armed with 11draft picks, need to hit on a lot of players with upside and starting ability at many positions. I would be surprised if they end up using all 11 picks as I expect Howie to be active with trades, moving around the board. I think they end up using 9 of their 11 picks. This is a rebuild, re-tool year, but they also plan on competing and believe they could make a run at the division, or at the very least 9–10 wins with a playoff appearance.

Eagles Mock , without trades AKA Howie standing pat: (which he will not do)

***Indicates team and draft position***

RD1 12- Devonta Smith WR Alabama

***Drafted by Eagles, 10th overall

RD2 37- Eric Stokes CB Georgia

***Drafted by GB #29 overall

RD3 70- Jamin Davis LB Kentucky

***Drafted by Redskins 19th overall

RD3 84- Deonte Brown G Alabama

***Drafted by Panthers pick 193

RD4 123- Tay Gowan CB Central Fl (hard to rank draft pos, opted out 2020)

***Drafted by Cardinals with pick 223

Ended up on Eagles via trade with AZ for Z Ertz

RD5 150- Jaylen Twyman DT Pittsburgh

***Drafted by Vikings pick 199

RD6 189- Jimmy Morrissey C Pittsburgh

***Drafted by Texans pick 230

RD6 224-Jonathan Cooper DE Ohio State

***Drafted by Broncos pick 239

RD6 225- Tre Norwood S Oklahoma

***Drafted by Steelers Pick 245

RD7 234- Cary Angeline TE North Carolina State

*** Un Drafted

Signed off waivers by Eagles, since released

RD7 240- Khyiris Tonga DT BYU

***Drafted by Bears pick 250

David

Follow me @PHLEagleNews

Offseason Assumptions, a Mock, and What Howie May Look For

Just a quick final Eagles mock draft prior to the start of the NFL Combine this week and what I want to see from each of the picks.

First, here are 10 assumptions I am using on the Howie and the Eagles:

  1. The Eagles will be in the middle of the league in cap space. While much improved, assuming another $10-15M is freed up will only put them in the mid-to-upper $20Ms in effective cap.
  2. Linebackers and safeties will be the easiest, cheapest, and best positions to address in free agency.
  3. Conversely, wide receiver and cornerback will be the toughest, and most expensive, to address in free agency.
  4. Despite continued noise, the Eagles will go with Hurts and not make a splash trade for a QB like Wilson.
  5. Howie said they will “surround Hurts with really good players”. While he did not specifically say skill positions, we can expect they will be an investment area.
  6. Sirianni and Gannon returning will have some increased input into positional value but it will not change Howie’s prioritization at the top of the draft (sorry, no Lloyd or Dean) and Howie begins looking at LBs with a higher priority (I was gladly wrong here originally and updated post Howie’s Combine comments)
  7. While not an immediate need in 2022, interior defensive line and running back are emerging needs in 2023 due to age and cost.
  8. Howie will continue the trend of the past two years of drafting highly athletic players that test well.
  9. High character was a focus last year and the Eagles will continue to draft for leadership and character (unlike the Cowboys).
  10. While impossible to mock with any accuracy, Howie will always move picks and I am assuming he will try to turn one of the 1sts into added capital next year.

So, now the mock…

R1-15 EDGE Travon Walker Georgia

An Eagles need aligns with the deepest position in the draft. Four EDGEs have already been taking by 15 and when the actual draft comes, I don’t think Travon will last anywhere close to pick 15. He has all the talent but didn’t have gaudy stats at Georgia (13.8% true pass set win rate, 5 sacks and 34 pressures in 381 dropbacks). But he has all the talent and will light up the Combine – the clip of him running down Alabama’s Agiye Hall from across the field is all I needed to see. He did drop into coverage 26 times so if Gannon wants to keep dropping linemen, Travon can do it.

What I’m interested in at the Combine: Explosiveness and shuttle
I am more interested in how high Travon tests, not that I have any concern areas. And then, where he starts getting talked about in the draft.

R1-16 CB Trent McDuffie Washington

I continue to be higher on McDuffie than most Eagles fans but I will stop mocking him when he goes ahead of the Eagles picks.

Last year the Eagles took the highest graded zone corner in the draft (Zech) and McDuffie is one of the best in the draft with an 82.2 zone grade. And of the top 30 graded zone corners, he is the ONLY one also with a top man cover grade (also at 80.0). This scheme flexibility along with being the solid tackler the Eagles require makes him a great fit.

The only negative thing said about McDuffie is his size, but he is 5’11” (unofficially) and size doesn’t show up as an issue on film. He will be another testing freak with his 41.5 inch vertical jump last June being 96th percentile for corners.

What I’m interested in at the Combine: Overall RAS percentile
McDuffie could test well in everything and be a top percentile corner in everything but height.

Trade:

Eagles receive R1-28, R3-92, and a 2023 2nd
Green Bay receives R1-19 and R5-164

Green Bay selects WR Chris Olave.

Green Bay is one of the most active 1st round trade up teams, trading up in 2018, 2019, and 2020, and do so again to add offensive talent in an effort to keep Rodgers. And the Eagles get an extra day 2 pick this year and next.

R1-28: WR Jahan Dotson PSU

Dotson has the best drop rate in the draft and can be productive at any level, grading above 80 at each depth of target. Expected to run in the 4.3s, he is another highly athletic and reliable receiver that will, at worst, immediately upgrade the Eagles at slot receiver.

What I’m interested in at the Combine: Speed, vertical
Dotson will be fast and while 40 time is not a be-all-end-all, I am interested to see how fast he is. He also possesses the best high school long jump in the draft class and interested in what he does on vertical.

R2-51: S Lewis Cine Georgia

The coaching staff’s influence shows up and Gannon gets the safety he needs. Cine played deep safety on 65% of his snaps but has the recognition and closing speed to attack the run. Of safeties in this class, he is the only one to grade above 77 deep and in the box and above 80 against the run and in coverage.

What I’m interested in at the Combine: Positional drills
Cine won’t blow people away on his 40 time but his reaction skills could be elite (W drill, shuttle, 3 cone)

R3-81: LB Brian Asamoah Oklahoma

Maybe I’ll look foolish in April, but the Eagles aren’t taking Lloyd or Dean in the 1st – they like TJ and Davion and the LBs played better once TJ got more snaps and Davion has all the upside. But Asamoah in the 3rd is a steal. He is another that will test extremely well and I expect him to not be available at 81 after the Combine.

What I’m interested in the Combine: Agility
Asamoah is rumored to run in the 4.4s and if he shows off in agility drills, he will move up boards a lot form his current ADP.

R3-92: DT Neil Farrell LSU

The Eagles need to continue to invest on the interior as Cox is aging and Hargrave is entering the last year of his contract (I assume he will be extended). Farrell is one of only two interior defenders (Logan Hall is the other) to rank in the top five in both run stop rate (5th at 11.9%) and pressure rate (2nd at 10.5%).

What I’m interested in the Combine: Broad and vertical jump
Weight (surprisingly) is the most correlated Combine measurement with NFL success for IDL and Farrell will be in the 90th percentile at 325 lbs. For Farrell, it will be important to see how his power tests.

R4-121: OG/C Dylan Parham Memphis

Parham is a guy I liked but wouldn’t have put on a mock due to his weight (285 lbs) but then he shows up at the Senior Bowl at 313. One widely held view I hate is that the Eagles should try to replicate what Kelce was (undersized and mobile) – Kelce is the 9th best draft pick when looking at value over expected and you cannot try to replicate an outlier like that. The Eagles could and should be interested in Parham – he played LG, RT, and RG at Memphis, took snaps at center at the Senior Bowl, and has the 3rd best pass block grade among the projected prospects. He gives the Eagles depth at G and has time to develop into Kelce’s replacement if needed.

What I’m interested in the Combine: Overall RAS percentile
Parham maintaining power and agility with his new 30 pounds, which he looked to have done at the Senior Bowl, is important. An ex-TE and sprinter, he has the ability to test well.

R5-152 EDGE Jeffrey Gunter Coastal Carolina

In the late rounds, the Eagles draft more Edges, LBs, and DBs than any other position and they go back to Coastal for another highly athletic EDGE. And by athletic, I mean he could be an absolute freak.

What I’m interested in the Combine: Overall RAS percentile
He should test in the 90th percentile in explosion and strength tests

R5-160 RB Kennedy Brooks Oklahoma

I just wrote an article here on what college traits translate to the NFL for RBs and Brooks is one of my favorite day 3 RB options. He has the 7th best elusiveness rate and 2nd highest explosive rush rate among RB prospects. A bigger back that gives the Eagles some depth to develop in Sanders last contract year.

What I’m interested in the Combine: 3 cone and 40 time
Brooks isn’t going to be the best tester due to his size but does he hit the low 4.5s and how does he look on change of direction. We know he will be tougher to bring down.

R6-204: TE Charlie Kolar Iowa St

If you have read my other stuff, you know I would take punter Jordan Stout here but Howie won’t. I’m not sure Kolar is the right or best choice, but I am putting him here. First, Sirianni has connections to Iowa St. Second, Kolar is a big target with great hands and a decent blocker. Third, he is hysterical in interviews.

What I’m interested in the Combine: Speed, agility
If something holds him back it is his overall athleticism. Would love to see his agility and speed – neither will light up RAS, but testing better than expectations will do a lot for him.

Running Backs: Elusiveness, Explosiveness, and Potential Day 3 Gems

First, an article on punters and now running backs – the two positions the analytics community hates most. I’m definitely not part of the “running backs don’t matter” crowd and with the Eagles truly committing to the run this past season, I wanted to take a deeper look at running backs. Here I am taking a look at what college traits translate to NFL success for RBs and who could be later round finds with the following profiled:

Why EPA is misleading

First, some comments on EPA as I am not using it here. Last week I was in an interesting Twitter exchange about what RB metrics may matter that Connor LaPlante (@cplant_) started. We know traditional metrics like yards-per-attempt aren’t useful and you must be careful using EPA, the go-to analytical metric for almost everything, for evaluating individual players. EPA measures the value a play generated vs. what was expected based on the field position, down, and distance. Given this, the game situation in which a running play is called has a huge effect on a running back’s opportunity.

To show this, below is the per-rush EPA broken down for all rushes, “bad rushes” (rushes on 1st-and-10), and “good rushes” (short yardage, less than 3 yards-to-go). I included the league average as well as stats for Jonathan Taylor (one of the top backs last year and one of the highest use short-yardage backs in the league at almost 18% of rushes), Miles Sanders, and Dalvin Cook (two above average RBs that have much lower short yardage usage).

Running Back
EPA
Overall		EPA
1st-and-10		EPA Short Yardage
(<3 yds to go)
Average for all RBs-0.060-0.0950.049
Jonathan Taylor0.069-0.0970.218
Miles Sanders-0.038-0.0930.016
Dalvin Cook-0.027-0.0990.054

First, rushes on 1st-and-10 have a depressed EPA because the chance of picking up more yards than a pass is really low. But short-yardage runs have a much higher EPA because so many of these runs either result in a touchdown if near the goal line or a new set of downs, both of which EPA values highly. A back could run for 4 in both scenarios and have vastly different EPAs.

While Jonathan Taylor had the 3rd best EPA per rush in the league, he looks no different than other RBs on less favorable rushing situations (1st and 10) – his high short-yardage usage skews his overall EPA stats. Still a good back, but you see how this makes EPA problematic for evaluating a RB individually and against other RBs.

EPA is not a bad metric, it is just better at aggregate (season or game level) and evaluating game situation / decisions. Looking at individual players with EPA, especially on smaller sample sizes, just requires digging in for needed context.

The metrics that do matter

The two metrics that have been shown to be (1) most stable from college to pro and (2) most accurate in isolating a running back’s performance are:

  • Elusiveness – PFF’s rating based on yards generated after contact and the number of tackles avoided or broken
  • Explosiveness – the percentage of rushes that gained 15 or more yards

Elusiveness

By focusing on what a running back generates on their own – blocks avoided and yards after a defender makes contact – elusiveness attempts to isolate a back from the blocking they receive. And it has been shown to be a stable metric from college to pros, meaning if a back was elusive in college, you can expect them to be elusive in the NFL as well.

While not perfect (there is no perfect metric here), elusiveness is very helpful. The below shows RBs drafted over the past 5 years with their college elusiveness rating on the x-axis and their NFL rushing grade on the y-axis. While there are exceptions (Pollard and Jones have high ratings despite average elusiveness scores), a back’s elusive rating absolutely correlates with NFL success.

Explosiveness

I’ve written before about the value of explosive plays – a single explosive play triples the chance of a drive ending in a score (Gannon’s defense, while infuriating at times to watch, is rightly focused on limiting explosive plays). And explosiveness and elusiveness are obviously related – a back that can avoid or break tackles and gain more yards after contact has a better chance of creating an explosive rush.

Below shows the same drafted RBs over the past five years with their college explosive rush rate vs. their NFL rushing grade – again, their college performance is predictive of NFL success, although a bit less strongly correlated than elusiveness (explosive rush rate has an R2 of 0.24 vs a better 0.33 for elusiveness).

A quick look at the 2021 draft class

This is my ongoing “what were the Steelers thinking?” part of the post. While I am not a run game hater as I said, I think it is insanity to draft backs high or give them a second contract. Here is a look at the 2021 drafted running backs with their college elusiveness rating on the y-axis and college explosive rush rate on the x-axis.

When you look at the 2021 backs, the top four elusive backs also happen to be the top 4 run graded and 4 of the top 5 top EPA/rush backs in their rookie season. Kenny Gainwell was actually the highest EPA/rush rookie because he had 5 rushing touchdowns, one from the 1-yard line and the other four from 7 yards out or more, all of which are very highly valued and pushed his aggregate EPA up.

Again, any single number does not tell the whole story on a back, but it is interesting to look at where RBs were drafted vs. the rookie season performance. You do not need to get a starting-caliber back high which is a consistent story each year. Javonte Williams (pick 2-35), Michael Carter (R4-108), Rhamondre Stevenson (R4-121), Kenny Gainwell (R5-151), and Khalil Herbert (R6-218) all stand out among the rookies but are all over the draft board. I’ve posted data in the past that shows RBs are one of the best value positions (along with IOL, IDL, and kickers) to take in rounds 5-7.

Which day 3 backs in the 2022 class could be interesting?

The Eagles re-discovered the run game this past season, ending the season with the 3rd highest EPA per rush and top rushing success rate in the league. Hurts was a large part of this, but Sanders, Howard, and Scott all had above 70.0 run grades running behind the number two rated Run Block Win Rate (RBWR) offensive line.

Looking forward, I am assuming they will continue to prioritize the run and while Sanders is still the number 1 back, he is in the last year of his rookie deal and only played 12 games each of the past two seasons. There is a price that makes sense for everybody, but assuming what he will likely get, it makes no sense to re-sign him. Scott and Howard may also both be gone, and while Gainwell was drafted last year, the Eagles should look for depth this April. They won’t (shouldn’t) take a back high in this draft but like last year, finding a potential gem like Gainwell late in the draft, particularly a larger back, to prepare for the post Sanders era is smart.

Below shows the same graph I used above but for the 2022 running back draft class showing college elusiveness and explosive rush rate.

I am not going to spend time on the top backs – Breece Hall, Isaiah Spiller, Kenneth Walker, Kyren Williams – that will most likely go early but instead look at projected day 3 RBs that could shine.

Hitting on day 3 is tough, no matter the position, but since the Eagles are unlikely (or not) going to use a top pick on a back, I’ll highlight guys that have a better than average chance.

Dameon Pierce – Florida

Measurables:5’10”, 215 lbs
ADP:R4-131
Elusive Rating:138.0 (4th)
Explosive Rush Rate:9.0% (9th)

The top graded back in the NCAA, Dameon is a physical back that runs hard and caused missed tackles at the 2nd highest rate in college this year. One that is viewed as a power back but he is much more than that – he had the 9th highest explosive rush rate, 4th best elusive rush rate, and was the fastest player on the field at the Senior Bowl, hitting 20.66 mph (source @JimNagy_SB tweet here). He went for 69 yards on 9 rushes against Georgia and is an effective blocker. One of my favorites in this list and somebody that would be a great fit on the Eagles.

Tyler Allgeier – BYU

Measurables:5’11”, 220 lbs
ADP:R4-134
Elusive Rating:111.4 (8th)
Explosive Rush Rate:7.3% (18th)

Another big back in the class. Allgeier won’t quite give the same explosive rush rate as others on the list but he makes up for it in breaking tackles.

Zonovan Knight – NC State

Measurables:5’11”, 210 lbs
ADP:R6-180
Elusive Rating:110.8 (9th of 29)
Explosive Rush Rate:7.9% (16th of 29)

Zonovan is 3rd in the draft class, behind Walker and Spiller, in tackles avoided per attempt and is 2nd in the NCAA in yards per attempt when contacted behind the line of scrimmage. His fumble rate (7 fumbles in 3 years over 439 attempts) scares me away and his pass blocking needs to improve.

Jerrion Ealy – Ole Miss

Measurables:5’8″, 190 lbs
ADP:R6-197
Elusive Rating:131.4 (5th)
Explosive Rush Rate:9.1% (8th)

The smallest back in the list, Ealy is 4th in the draft class behind Zonovan Knight, Spiller, and Walker in tackles avoided per attempt and 7th in college in yards after contact per attempt. Like White above, Ealy needs to improve his pass-blocking but provides some kick return value.

ZaQuandre White – South Carolina

Measurables:6’1″, 215 lbs
ADP:R6-204
Elusive Rating:153.6 (1st)
Explosive Rush Rate:11.2% (4th)

White is another back I really like, especially where he is likely to be drafted. He only had 215 college rushing attempts but led the FBS in both yards after contact per attempt (4.61 yards) and yards per route run among running backs (2.17 yards) while playing in the SEC. He needs to greatly improve his pass blocking to get consistent time in the NFL.

Kennedy Brooks – Oklahoma

Measurables:5’11”, 215 lbs
ADP:R6-214
Elusive Rating:118.9 (7th)
Explosive Rush Rate:12.7% (2nd)

Another bigger back, I often see Kennedy projected as a short-yardage back but his traits say he is much more than that – as a comparison, his missed tackle rate generated is twice Jordan Howard‘s with the 2nd highest explosive rush rate among prospects. Brooks is my personal favorite on the list – he has the size the Eagles could use, had no fumbles over the past two seasons and only one in his college career. He showed up consistently all year, including 139 yards on 22 rushes and four that went 15 yards or more against Oklahoma State, the top college run defense last year in EPA allowed. He overlapped with Hurts at Oklahoma in 2019, which doesn’t matter but is interesting if nothing else.

A Look at the Eagles Pass Rush and Offseason Priorities

Let me put this out right at the beginning – what I am about to write is not a “the Eagles pass rush is great” article. That argument was going on last week and I do not want to anger Seth… But when you dig into the pass rush data, you see the story is more complicated. Yes, the Eagles need better pass rushers, but the data actually point to the back seven and scheme as well.

What affected the Eagles pass rush?

I had trouble reconciling the Eagles pass rush drop off with some of the deeper pass rush stats. Pass Rush Win Rate (PRWR) is a charting of how often defensive players beat their blocks within 2.5 seconds. In 2021, the Eagles:

  • As a team were 7th in the league in PRWR at 49%
  • Had a top 10 pass rusher in Javon Hargrave who was 7th with a 21.0% pass rush win rate and Josh Sweat who was 50th out of 200 at 14.5%

But the Eagles ability to win against blocks did not result in pressures. The Eagles were:

  • 19th in total pressures and 15th in true pass set pressures
  • 15th in QB hits
  • 19th in hurries
  • 31st in total sacks and 15th in true pass set sacks

Opposing QBs got rid of the ball fast

The average time to throw (TTT) for a QB across the league is 2.7 seconds but the Eagles opposing QBs threw the ball much, much quicker. Of their 17 games (I excluded the last regular season game against the Cowboys as starters did not play but included the wildcard game against Tampa), 13 times the opposing QB released the ball below the league average. Only Dak (first Dallas game), Darnold, Garrett Gilbert, and Mike Glennon were above the league average.

And not only did they throw quicker than the league average, 11 QBs threw quicker than their own average release time. And most threw significantly quicker than they did the rest of the season – 3 threw at their fastest rate of the season (Carr, Herbert, and Siemian), 2 threw at their 2nd fastest rate of the season (Mahomes and Zach Wilson), and 4 threw at their 3rd fastest rate (Brady, Daniel Jones, and Bridgewater).

There is obviously a strong correlation between time to throw and pressure across the league – as time to throw drops, so do pressures. Below are 2021 QB average time to throw vs. allowed pressure rate.

The Eagles saw largely the same effect. Below shows each QB they faced in 2021 with their time to throw vs the Eagles on the x-axis and the Eagles pressure rate on the y-axis. The league average TTT is drawn in as the grey vertical line.

The Eagles clearly had a statistical pass rush drop off from 2020 where they were 3rd in the league in pressure rate, 2nd in the league in sacks, 14th in hurries, and 5th in QB hits. But, in 2020 they had almost the same pass rush win rate (it was actually slightly lower at 48%). QBs threw quickly against the Eagles in 2020 and threw even quicker in 2021 as you can see with the leftward shift in 2021 (blue) dots below (left is quicker QB release).

There isn’t a clean answer on what caused the drop-off in 2021, QBs throwing quicker contributed but there were several other probably reasons:

  • The Eagles faced slightly better pass blocking teams in 2021 than 2020 with a 1.5% higher pass block win rate among 2021 opponents.
  • The defensive scheme clearly contributed – remember Fletcher Cox publicly complaining about dropping into coverage and the excessive CB cushions.
  • And probably most significantly, losing Brandon Graham and having his over 400 snaps split up with Ryan Kerrigan, Derek Barnett, and Tarron Jackson. In 2020 BG was 2nd on the team in pass rush win rate at 17.4%, barely below Hargrave’s 17.8% win rate and that was nowhere near replaced.

Gannon’s scheme

I mentioned at the beginning that this was not a defense of the pass rush and it also pointed to other areas of the defense. And the scheme was part of it with Gannon’s defense focusing on a controlled, containing pass rush that creates pressure first. Gannon explained ““… I don’t think just measuring sacks is a good measure as far as how’s your defensive line affecting the game. So I think they’re doing a good job. Yeah, hopefully, we get some more production with sacking the quarterback at times and there’s a lot of different ways to do that.”

I’m not as negative on Gannon as many. The off coverage drove me nuts, he refuses to play dime even though our linebackers were so weak, and and the personnel was not always used to their strengths despite that being the core coaching philosophy entering the season. But the Eagles did limit explosive plays, 5th best in the league in allowed explosive play rate, and forced – by far – the lowest depth of target on pass plays. It is actually the lowest of any defense over the past 3 seasons. Just look at how much lower the Eagles average depth of target was than the rest of the league in 2021 – they aren’t even close to Seattle, the next lowest team:

This has value – the league is about limiting explosive plays. But the issue is that the Eagles were not good enough here. They were 8th worst in the league in EPA allowed on passes less than 5 yards, 8th worst against RB in the passing game, and 2nd worst against TEs. Yes, the pass rush needs to be better, but poor LBs are allowing QBs to just work around the rush. The average time to throw against the Eagles in 2021 was 2.58 seconds – at that pace, no pass rush is going to consistently get there.

Just for fun as a comparison, the Steelers, who have one of the best and most productive pass rushes in the league, face an average time to throw of 2.68 seconds, a full tenth of a second longer than the Eagles and almost at the league average. And when the Steelers face quicker release times, (Burrow, Cousins, Rodgers, Carr), their pressure and sack rates both drop.

Mocking the off-season

Free agents:

The Eagles have $22M of cap and we can assume it gets to $30-35M after some (hopefully selective) restructures. They will need an estimated $8.6M to sign their draft picks, leaving them in the low to mid $20Ms to work with – better than last year, but middle of the league and not an amount that means they will sign massive FAs. The below moves would chew up between $16-20M depending on the WR signed.

  • Re-sign S Rodney McLeod (1 yr / $2M) – Epps earned a starting spot, Andrew Harris will depart and it is tough to lose both starters in the same offseason. McLeod will be back on an affordable 1-year.
  • Sign LB Josey Jewell (1 yr / $6M) – I refuse to believe Howie will go after Devin Lloyd or Nakobe Dean so let’s forget that when we get to the draft. Denver has two good LBs, both recovering from torn pecs, and most likely won’t keep both. Solid in coverage and run defense, pairing Jewell with TJ solidifies the LBs and does not put the entire burden on Davion or a rookie.
  • Sign DT Tim Settle (1 yr / $4.25M) – There won’t be a ton of snaps available on the interior as long as Cox and Hargrave are around, but Settle is exactly the type of rotational DT Howie covets. The former Hokie and team-with-no-name tackle, Settle has not yet hit 400 snaps in his career but would be the 2nd best pass rusher (13.4% win rate) and highest graded run defender on the Eagles.
  • Sign a veteran WR – Target Russell Gage (4 yrs / $30M) or Jamison Crowder (1 yr / $4.5M). I would go after Mike Williams but I don’t see him leaving the Chargers and the Eagles aren’t going to sign a Davante or Godwin. I’m not as high on Allen Robinson as many as he bottom of the league in separation which is not what Hurts needs.

The draft:

R1-15: EDGE Travon Walker UGA
What this entire article is about. He doesn’t have the stats in college (only a 13.8% true pass set win rate) but his athleticism is nuts. A solid run defender, he has work to do on pass rush but will have the time to do so behind BG and Sweat.

R1-16: WR Traylon Burks Arkansas
Yep another 1st round receiver but sunk cost and all… also Howie said he is going to surround Hurts will skill. He’s big, will test crazy (he hit 22.6 mph on the field this year), and plays everywhere – he’s one of my favorite players in the draft. Not sure Burks makes it to 16, depends on how others like Cleveland rank the WRs but he is here and I am taking him.

R1-19: CB Trent McDuffie Washington
The Eagles need a Nelson replacement and while they have not invested in corner high in the past, they will this year. Most have McDuffie lower than I do, but I keep re-watching him trying to find what I don’t like and the only knock is size. He will be another freak tester and is probably the best corner fit for the Eagles scheme. Probably my other favorite in the draft with Burks.

R2-51: DT Devonte Wyatt UGA
Ok, this is the point where most will officially hate this mock as I still haven’t taken a LB or S. But this makes sense. First, Howie prioritizes the line and, second, DT is becoming an urgent need. Hargrave is only under contract for 2022 and Cox is aging. Milton Williams was taken last year but there is nothing behind him. Another freak for his size from Georgia, Wyatt is the only SEC DT that graded above 80 against both the rush and pass and had a 21.8% true pass set win rate. Surprised he was here at 51 but no hesitation with this pick.

R3-83: S Bryan Cook Cincinnati
Sirianni and Gannon’s influence shows up here as the Eagles haven’t taken a safety this high since 2011. The 5th highest graded safety in the FBS, Cook does what the Eagles need – he plays all over but can play deep and still be effective coming in against the run.

R4-121: OG Cole Strange Chattanooga
One of David’s favorites with a recent article here and he has me won over. 1 sack allowed in his entire college career, Strange is a guard that showed some center at the Senior Bowl.

R5-152: RB Hassan Haskins Michigan
If the Eagles are going to be a run-heavy offense, get another RB as I have Boston Scott and Jordan Howard leaving (I’d look to return Howard if he doesn’t get picked up elsewhere). Haskins is a bigger back that had one of the higher rushing yards over expected this year.

R5-160: OT Andrew Stueber Michigan
Back-to-back Wolverines with Stueber, another big (6’7″ 338 lb) developmental RT that only allowed 2 sacks in 785 career dropbacks. He probably moves inside in the NFL but gives the Eagles time to see if he can develop as an eventual RT.

R5-164: WR Velus Jones Jr. Tennessee
It’s always interesting to look at potential draft inefficiencies and one this year could be the 5 or 6 year Covid-related rookies that many teams will pass on for age alone. Jones will be 25 by the start of the season but is fast, hitting 21.75 mph at the Senior Bowl. A good sized receiver at 6’0″ 200 lbs, he is one of the best kick returners in college, something the Eagles have never solved. With the Eagles WR depth chart, there is room to roster him if he can contribute on returns.

R6-204: P Jordan Stout PSU
I wrote here about the Eagles need for a punter, why it makes sense to draft one, and why Stout is the best punter in the draft class, headlines be damned. Do I think Howie will draft him? No. Is Howie wrong? Yes.

All of the above fills some the needed holes on both sides while not being crazy on the salary cap:

Defense:
DL: Cox, Hargrave, Sweat, BG, Milton, Tarron, Tim Settle, Devonte Wyatt, Travon Walker
LB: TJ, Josey Jewell, Davion, Singleton, Johnson, Bradley, Johnson
CB: Slay, Maddox, Trent McDuffie, Zech, Tay
S: McLeod, Epps, K’Von, Bryan Cook

Offense:
WR: Devonte, Quez, Gage or Crowder, Traylon Burks, Reagor, Velus Jones
RB: Sanders, Gainwell, Haskins, Huntley
OL: Mailata, Dickerson, Kelce, Seumalo, Lane, Driscoll, Herbig, Toth, Cole Strange, Andrew Stueber
TE: Goedert, Stoll, Tyree
QB: Hurts

Specialists:
K: Jake Elliott
P: Jordan Stout
Returners: Huntley, Velus Jones

2022 NFL Eagles Mock Draft and FA Targets

Pre Combine, Post Senior Bowl, Eagles Only Mock with 2 Free Agents

Round One:

15– CB Derek Stingley Jr.

If Stingley doesn’t fall to pick 15, Kaiir Elam or Trent McDuffie will. I would address the need of CB in round one and get someone to pair with Slay.

16– WR Treylon Burks

He is the best WR in the draft for what the Eagles need. At 6’3 225, he creates separation and has HUGE hand. Burks is also a very physical run blocker, which is something Philly wide outs are asked to do often.

19– DE Jermaine Johnson

Had a fantastic, eye opening, week during the Senior bowl. Jermaine is also very versatile, having played standing up, hand in the dirt, right side, left side, as well as LB.

Round Two:

51– S Jalen Pitre

Could fit into the hybrid role Malcolm Jenkins used to play. He is always mixing it up, and plays with an attitude he backs up with his on field aggression.

Round Three:

83– LB Channing Tindall

If the Eagles are not going to take a LB in the first 2 rounds, Channing is one of the best still on the board. He plays with speed, and brings violence that is not expected from his size. He would bring a much needed flair to the position.

Round Four:

123– OG/C Cole Strange 

Cole could groom for a year under Kelce, if the Eagles see him as a Center, while he spends 2022 as an all purpose back up along the O Line. Cole brings aggression, and the work ethic the Eagles demand from the position.

Round Five:

154– RB Brian Robinson Jr.

Brian picks up yards after contact and is a punishing finisher. He uses his legs and his 6’1 225 lb frame to pick up the tough short yardage needed on 3rd and 4th an one. Would be a great rotational back.

162– TE Cole Turner

The Eagles want another pass catching TE to pair with Goedert, and with project Tyree Jackson out for a large part of the season, they will probably be drafting one. Cole Turner has proven to be a pass catching wonder. Turner has good hands and ball tracking ability. At 6’6, he’s another big body who gets the separation needed to be a reliable target for Hurts.

166– DT Otito Ogbonni

The former playmaking Bruin had such a good Senior bowl week that he very well may not last this long in the draft. Ogbonni has a very strong lower body and is a solid tackler. He also muscles his way through gaps and never gives up on plays. 

Round Six:

205– S Nick Cross 

Cross, a former track star, has impressive speed and good ball skills for a safety. He would bring much needed coverage ability from the S position, in a back up or as the third S in dime coverage. If the Eagles play it under Gannon.

The Haul

Defense: CB- DE- (2)S- LB- DT

Offense: WR- OG/C- RB- TE

I do not believe for one minute that these ten selections will remain in this draft order. I expect Howie to be active trading picks, and moving all over the board. (including possibly moving a first to 2023 or trading for a QB)

2022 Free Agent Wish List:

The Williams Duo

Marcus Williams

The Saints free safety is reaching what should be the prime of his career, at 26 years old. If the Eagles are willing to spend some money at the position, he is likely one of the safer bets as he hasn’t been injured in his NFL career. He may never get over being the player exposed in the playoff game that sent the Vikings to Philly (on the Eagles way to their first Super Bowl win) but he will command a four- or five-year contract worth $15 million a year.

Mike Williams

He isn’t the quickest player, but he does have the size the Eagles are missing from the wide receiver core. He would be a good red zone threat to pair with Dallas Goedert. His injury history makes it hard to project his value. He played well in 2021, but most guys do in a contract year. The Eagles will have interest, but at what cost is anyones guess. Howie is always creative, and if he wants him he will find a way.

As always, Thank You for reading!

Follow me @PHLEagleNews

David

2/22/2022

Cole Strange Appreciates Aggression and Toughness, you will appreciate him

Cole Strange is rising up draft boards after his performance during Senior Bowl week, and with good reason. The style of play and attitude he brings to the field are traits all NFL teams covet on their offensive line.

When asked what he believes to be the most important skill set to being an offensive lineman

“Playing aggressive, and tough and mean”

Philly would love this guy!

Cole can play Center or Guard and has taken practice reps at every position along the line. He would fit perfectly into an immediate all purpose backup role with the Eagles, while receiving tutelage under Jeff Stoutland. At 6’4 300 lbs, he is a mauler and a fast study. A defensive end in high school, he never played on the offensive line until college. Cole would be a great player for now and the future.

Check out some clips:

Every scout, and scouting report, raves about his strong grip.

Great vision and football acumen. He diagnoses plays quickly and effectively.

More than held his own during Senior Bowl week. Opened a lot of eyes. (played Center in the game)

He gets to the second level easily, looking for someone else to hit.

A finisher. Cole doesn’t just play to the whistle, he plays through it. 

He has had this mentality since he was a kid. Cole stated one of his most memorable football moments that stuck out more than any other was when he was in the second round of the Pee Wee playoffs and they were “getting whooped 24–8”. He went to the team “The games not over until it’s over boys” Cole modestly stated he doesn’t believe that rallied troops, but they came back to tie the game in regulation, and won in overtime. The team went on to win the Pee Wee championship the following week. Winner mentality. 

Has proven to be a very coachable, willing learner. Hungry to learn more. Cole prides himself on not losing the same way twice.

Stats and Facts:

Graduated in December of 2020 with a degree in Psychology.

44 career starts. 41 at LG, 2 playing LT and 1 at C.

First-team All-Southern Conference selection.

Played in a very run heavy scheme at Chattanooga.

He is a player on the rise, and one to watch during the draft. 

As always, thanks for reading.

Follow me @PhlEagleNews

Follow Matt at @MattAlkire 

David 2/16/22

Punt God, Midnight Oil, 80’s Music, and Prospects Close To Your Heart

From singing Midnight Oil to watching film breakdown on a “Punt God”, it’s been a busy start to the offseason.

Who are YOUR guys in the upcoming 2022 NFL Draft ? Not the consensus #1’s but the players from college teams you watch or guys you studied and have an affinity for. We all know the Eagles would love to have Kyle Hamilton, Hutchinson, Thibodeaux etc, but without trading up, that is probably not realistic. I will show you mine, if you show me yours.

Behold, the best of the rest! 

Positional breakdown:

Center:

Cam Jurgens- Every time I watched Jurgens I saw a little touch of Jason Kelce in him. So I asked a scout if I was crazy or if that style of play was really there. He confirmed that if I am crazy it wasn’t because of that. Cam definitely has some of those same qualities. He would be a lot of fun to have around.

James Empey- The BYU center is 6’4 300lbs and very technically sound. Most scouts have stated he’d be perfect in an RPO heavy, style offense. His father also played OL and is currently an offensive line coach, also at BYU. James is very active in his community. This past season he was a semi finalist for the prestigious Wuerffel Trophy, college football’s top community service award.

Cole Strange- Cole can play Center or Guard and claims to have taken practice reps at every position along the line. He would fit perfectly into an immediate backup role while receiving tutelage under Stoutland. At 6’5 300lbs he is a mauler and a fast study. He never played OL until college. Cole would be a great player for now and the future.

Wide Receiver:

Treylon Burks- I have him over every other WR in draft. He is WR1. Burks is 6’3, 225, with humongous hands. He is also very physical. He would be a difference maker at the position. If the Birds take a receiver in the first, my choice is him.

Erik Ezukanma- Another big receiver. 6’3 220. Long, long arms. A big bodied pass catcher who is also great at getting yards after the catch. He often catches the ball with his hands at the high point (like Quez) and is good at winning 50/50 balls. I would love to see him and Goedert in the red zone together.

Charleston Rambo- A very good route runner with strong hands and elite speed. Not very big, but makes catches in traffic by utilizing those strong hands and getting vertical. Rambo is a lot more powerful than his frame suggests. (Side note: wouldn’t it just be cool to have an Eagles jersey with Rambo?)

Running Back:

Brian Robinson- He is a physical, aggressive runner who finishes off runs by lowering his shoulder and plowing ahead for more yards. At 6’1 225, he takes a licking and keeps on ticking, like the energizer bunny.

Jerome Ford- The first thing I noticed is his speed. He doesn’t lose much of it it when makes cuts either. He is a threat to take it to the house everytime he touches the ball.

Hassan Haskins- Hassan is a bruiser, who would seemingly pair well with Miles and Gainwell. He runs over defensive backs with ease. Fun guy to watch.

Safety:

Jaquan Brisker- Unlike some others on my list, Brisker isn’t a gamble on potential, he has already shown the goods. He is as fundamentally sound as it gets. A jack of all trades type of S, he can cover a lot of positions for you when needed. Jaquan also demonstrates amazing situational awareness. He will walk right onto the field with a starting job for some lucky NFL team. 

Jalen Pitre- Similiar to Brisker, he could be utlized in a Malcolm Jenkins type of role. He played a hybrid role at Baylor between LB, CB, S, and even Edge. I absolutely love his game and upside. A tough guy who would give the Eagles a much needed boost in that area.

Bryan Cook- There is a reason Cincinnati had such a great season, and Cook is one of the reasons why. He needs to sure up his tackling, but he is a punishing hitter. He has elite speed and playmaking ability, but needs to be more consistent overall. I have seen him mocked to go as high as round one, and all the way down to the seventh. A true wild card in the draft.

Nick Cross- A potential later round option, Nick can flat out run. The former track star has amazing closing speed and a very high upside. Give him a look, he could be a player too many are sleeping on.

Cornerback

Kaiir Elam- He’s big, strong and physical. Will work well in a man scheme. Having Slay and Elam together would change things on this defense in a hurry. A probable first rounder.

Trent McDuffie- If not for his size, would likely be in the discussion for one of the top couple corners in the draft. He is quick, twitchy and has hops! Check out his High School vertical leaps. A very high ceiling.

Tariq Woolen- A long, tall, physical corner. 6’4 205. The athletic upside is off the charts. He will fall in the draft a tad due to the fact he is a converted receiver and somewhat new to the position. He has a few things to learn, and will need some coaching up, but will pay BIG dividends to whoever drafts him.

Linebacker:

Channing Tindall- Channing has good range, good speed and is never afraid to mix it up. The Eagles need linebackers. If they are adamant about not selecting one in the first couple rounds. Channing is very much in play in round 3.

Quay Walker- A one year starter who posseses good size, athletic ability and (I know I am starting to sound like a broken record) another player with a high ceiling. He is very aggressive when he gets his hands on opposing players and will take on linemen without a thought. 

Defensive End:

David Ojabo- While not a finished product, he is already extremely athletic. He remind me a little of another freakish athelte. The Freak himself. Javon Kearse. Ojabo is still learning the game of football. He isn’t Mailata green, but he does have some things to learn. His journey from Nigeria, to Scotland, to playing on an NFL team is quite a read. Check him out!

Myjai Sanders- Sanders is approx 6’5 260 and plays like it. He tackles well, and is blessed with a long frame that he uses to his advantage. A lot of untapped potential here. He would be great to add to the new core of fastballs DC Jonathan Gannon could use as part of his front four.

Trevon Walker- He is ranked very high on a lot of lists, but he might be my favorite at the position. Like Ojabo, he is still doing some on the job training. He has superior talent and traits and I love to gamble on high ceilings. His celing is very high. Picture The Burj Khalifa in Dubai. That high!

I only watched the college All 22 on positions I thought the Eagles had an above average chance of drafting. I may have wasted my time with center if Kelce comes back, but I learned a lot about the position and it was fun. What a violent hand to hand combat battle that occurs on every snap.

Also, I must confess, I don’t watch tape on punters like @GregHartPA , as he opined “I can picture how miserable you would be just holding a stopwatch, looking up into the sun, counting “One Mississippi…”

 It is not my cup of tea, but his story on punters and value is fantastic! Truly the best piece you will read on special teams all season. His case to draft “Punt God” Jordan Stout is truly compelling.

Drafting a Punter Makes Analytical Sense… And Yes, This Year There is a Punt God

Lastly, I don’t burn the midnight oil like @mattalkire posting clips all hours of the night (including during the AFC and NFC Championships games),nor did I like the band Midnight Oil back in the 80’s. Though that one song, Beds are Burning, was pretty catchy.

”How can we dance when our Earth is turning, how do we sleep while our beds are burning?” 

 Ok, maybe I did like Midnight Oil more than I remembered. 

But I digress.

Who are the players that are “Your Guys” in the draft. The ones you dont see mocked very often, or atleast not as high as the draftniks rank them. I would love to add more names to my list, so please share your thoughts.

As always, thanks for reading.

Follow me @PhlEagleNews 

David

2/15/22

Drafting a Punter Makes Analytical Sense… And Yes, This Year There is a Punt God

The Eagles should draft a punter in 2022. And no, it shouldn’t be Matt Araiza… the punter to take this year is the real Punt God, Penn State’s Jordan Stout.

I’m definitely at odds with a lot of the analytics community who would jokingly not even roster punters. NFL coaches famously way over-punt – while coaches are getting better (more aggressive) on 4th down decisions each year, NextGenStats’ 4th down go-or-kick model shows that coaches still only make the right decision to go for it on 4th down 53% of the time. While I absolutely agree that teams punt way too often, I am definitely pro-punter and wanted to dig into the analytics of punting ahead of the draft. (If you are here just for Jordan Stout, you can skip ahead to it here).

Credit to the following sources of data I used for this post:

  • Puntalytics who runs puntR and has the best punting analytics and thinking right now
  • PFF punter data
  • NFLfastR for play-by-play data

First, how to value punts

The go-to metric for football analytics is Expected Points Added (EPA) which does not work for punting. As a reminder, EPA compares the actual play value vs. what historical value (points) was generated from that field position, down, and distance. So much of the expected value of a punt lies on the decision to punt before the punter even walks on the field and less on what the punter actually does.

Puntalytics does really nice work on adjusting EPA for punters to eliminate the impact that the decision to punt has. They normalized EPA for punters by comparing what EPA the punt generated vs. the average of all punts from that field position which gives a relative value of how the punter performed vs. other all other similar punts. For this analysis below, EPA+ (similar to baseball’s OPS+) shows the EPA the punter generated vs. what was expected for a punt from that field location.

As an example, in the Rams / Cardinals NFC Wildcard Game, the Rams up 14-0 punted midway through the 2nd quarter on 4th-and-4 from the Cardinals 44 yard line. On a borderline decision where the data leaned towards going for it, Hekker lofted a punt that was downed at the Cardinal 1.

Looking back at all punts over the past 20 years, the average EPA for a punt from the opponent’s 44 yard line is -0.213, one of the worst projected EPA plays. Hekker’s punt generated an EPA of 0.123 for the play, roughly equal to the EPA generated on the average NFL pass. But comparing to the expected EPA for a punt from the 44, Hekker generated an EPA+ of 0.337, a top 3rd percentile punt in that game situation over the past 20 years.

Next, what makes a great punter

Like everything, there is a lot that goes into what makes a great player. But the best punts as measured by punter EPA+ come down primarily to two things: distance of the punt and hang time. Below shows punter EPA+ vs. a composite of punt distance and hang time for the NFL 2021 season (I have eliminated any punt plays that resulted in a fumble or had a penalty as both greatly skew EPA value data).

To the right of the chart are punters that punt far with better hang time, to the left are punters with shorter punts and worse hang time. The correlation with EPA+ is good with an R2 of 0.51 and the outliers are largely explained by blocked punts. Above the size of the circle reflects number of blocked punts with Bailey, Charlton, Edwards, Colquitt, Long, Haack, Mann, Way, Bojorquez and Cooke all having one or more blocked punts. Blocks could be the punter’s fault but are usually more affected by the protection and snap.

(For us Eagles fans, Siposs is in the bottom left quadrant with a -0.205 EPA+… more on Siposs later)

Below is the data for each punter above. The top ten punters have an average composite hang time (HT) and punt distance (DIST) of 180.9 with Bryan Anger at the top with a 202 composite.

Do you draft punters? And where?

Yes, you should draft a punter in the second half of day 3 if you need one.

Last year during the draft I posted some of this data which compares the value of punters drafted vs. expected value from that pick location. Punters clearly have less value than positional players, but they don’t have zero value. And as rounds progress, the value of positional players drops significantly – the chance of getting even a league average player after the 3rd round is pretty low and by the 5th round, the chance of a drafting a league average player is below 20%.

Below shows the 33 punters drafted since 2004 with their career value as measured by AV (Approximate Value) compared to the average value generated by all players taken at that pick location. Above the centerline, the player selected exceeded the average player drafted in their pick location.

Around pick 160, near the middle of the 5th round, is where punters on average begin to consistently exceed the value of other positional players. In the 6th and 7th rounds, punters and kickers are actually the only positions with a positive expected value. The reason is simple – you are drafting P1 in those rounds vs. WR20 or OL30.

Drafting punters earlier than the 5th has not worked out, no matter how great you feel about the player. Nine punters have been drafted before pick 160 and Dickson is the only one that clearly exceeded expected value.

Why the Eagles should draft Penn State’s Jordan Stout

Siposs was bad in his first season with the Eagles, ranking 25th out of 27 punters in the NFL with an EPA+ of -0.205. Neither his average distance (27th in the league) nor his hang time (17th in the league) were good. And this isn’t new – he was exactly the same at Auburn with an ok 4.24 average hang time and a terrible average distance of 38.8 yards. Using the same hang time and distance composite metric above, Siposs had a composite of 164.5 at Auburn, almost identical to his 163.9 pro composite. For fun, if you project his pro EPA+ from his college composite using the regression line (EPA+ = 0.01 * DISTHTCOMP -1.88), he would have projected to a -0.23 pro EPA+, again almost exactly his pro number. Siposs is what he is.

Matt Araiza has all the press right now with his well-shared 80+ yard punts and and many are talking drafting him high, wondering if he can go late day 2 or very early day 3. Araiza is good for sure, but when you look at the top 2022 draft-eligible punters using the same data as above, he is not the best punter in this draft class. Jordan Stout is.

Araiza gets the highlights, but his approach of just kicking as far as possible to push the receiving team back without regard for hang time allows almost a third of his punts to be returned with an average return of 10.5 yards, 8th worst among 2022 punters. Could he adjust his kicks for more loft? Sure. Rutgers’ Korsak is also highly thought of but he has a really concerning hang time that will not work in the NFL. But not talked about enough is the real punt god in the 2022 draft, Jordan Stout.

Stout is clearly the most draftable punter this year.

  • He is the only college punter that projects to a positive EPA+ in the pros. His projected 0.064 EPA+ would have been 2nd in the NFL in 2021.
  • He is the only college punter with both pro-ready hang time and distance metrics – 4.34 seconds, best in the country, on 44.63 yards.
  • He has a quick, short pro delivery and had none of his 100 punt attempts blocked in college.
  • And he was the top-rated punter in college for coffin corner punts in 2021.

And Stout isn’t just the best punter in the 2022 draft class, he is the top college punter over the past 5 seasons when looking at hang time and distance (Stout in the top left corner below).

His career stats are nuts, but he showed even more at the Senior Bowl, averaging a 50.5 yard net and a 4.59 second hang time. And there isn’t a better punter at placing the ball and making returns difficult. Here he is from the Senior Bowl earning his coffin corner award with a 59-yard un-returnable punt:

And another near-60 yard punt from the Senior Bowl showing his distance, placement, and over 4.8 second hang time giving the ball enough hang to allow his coverage to be there on the returner.

Stout also kicks, going 34/36 on extra points, 16/23 on field goals in his senior season, and led the nation in kickoff touchback percentage at 90.32%. To be clear – I’m not recommending the Eagles roster only Stout, the days of a player that punts and kicks are gone. But Elliott has missed playing time each of the past two seasons, leading to the glorious two kickoff attempts by Kamu Gruiger-Hill (and I’m not being sarcastic – Kamu did awesome). It is, however, a nice bonus to have somebody that can actually be a backup kicker. Here he is from 57 against my alma mater and setting a PSU record:

The Eagles have picks 161, 165, 192, and 204 in the 2022 draft and I would use any of those on Stout. Where will he go? No idea. If I had to guess, I’d say the 6th and wouldn’t make it to the 7th. Pre-draft projections have him in the 7th but since 2015, the top picks used on punters were 191, 110, 149, 179, and 165.

Do the Eagles need a punter? Absolutely. Will Howie draft him (or any punter)? I really doubt it – Howie has his philosophy on positional value. For as much criticism as Howie gets for missing on top picks, he has been very good in late rounds – the Eagles are 9th in the league since 2010 in actual vs. expected value for picks in rounds 5 through 7. But even with this outperformance, the Eagles have had 5 hits (Kelce, Mailata, Jalen Mills, Beau Allen, and Jordan Poyer) and a couple potentials (Quez, Shaun Bradley, maybe Tarron Jackson) out of 33 picks. They are one of the better teams in the league and their hit rate is between 15% or at tops 25% if the recent picks work out. If you would rather take a chance on another Kelce or Mailata, that is fine, I wouldn’t argue. But Stout is special and worthy of a pick especially when you need a punter.

Stout will be drafted though and whoever drafts him is getting a top-tier pro punter. Maybe Stout won’t match Randall’s 91-yard punt, but he has the ability to be the best punter in franchise history. And the Eagles should take him.

2022 Philadelphia Eagles Free Agent Wish List

The Eagles are heading into the 2022 NFL Draft loaded with ten picks, including 3 first rounders for the first time in franchise history. Even with that embarrassment of riches, every hole on the roster can not be filled during the draft.

Positions that could be addressed via free agency or trade: Wide Receiver, Safety, Edge Rusher, Cornerback, or Linebacker. 

Howie Roseman will look into every available free agent, but I would pay particular attention to wide receiver and safety. Both positions have young ascending players who seemingly fit into what the Eagles like to do.

The wide receiver position is the most pressing need on offense. Whether you are a Jalen Hurts fan, or are in the camp that desires a veteran QB like Russell Wilson, the team needs more wide outs. DeVonta Smith is a future number one receiver. After his rookie season, there aren’t many people who can argue that. Quez Watkins has proven to be deserving of a starting role as well, but might be best as a 3rd WR. The Eagles will be looking at a veteran wideout to pair with their two very young starters. As opined during the Championship Games, a QB is only as good as their third receiver. JJAW, Reagor and Ward should not be filling that role going into 2022.

Wide Receivers (6)

Chris Godwin: If they’re willing to take the injury risk, Penn St and Middleton, DE native Chris Godwin is available. He has great hands and body control. Chris had 82 receptions through week 15, when he was injured(torn ACL MCL). He is versatile and wins 50/50 balls. With DeVonta occupying the X, Godwin would compliment him by working out of the Z. The negative, aside from the injury risk, is his inability to to fight off press man coverage consistently. Godwin will probably command a 3 year 50 million dollar deal or even a 4/65.

Mike Williams: Another name to look out for. He isn’t the quickest player, but he does have the size the Eagles are missing from the wide receiver core. He would be a good red zone threat to pair with Dallas Goedert. His injury history makes it hard to project his value. He played well in 2021, but most guys do in a contract year. The Eagles will have interest, but at what cost. He could get anywhere from a 3–5 year contract worth 50–70 million. 

Allen Robinson: Robinson has some of the traits another former Bear who came to Philadelphia displayed. He has great hands, and has demonstrated his ability to win 50/50 balls time and time again. He does not have explosive speed, but with Quez, that may not be an issue depending on the role he will play. His injury history is a concern and will probably cost him in free agency. His market could be in the 3 year range. Most projections show 10–14 million a year. A three year deal with only 2 of it guaranteed would be ideal for Philly. My concern with Allen is: I read his lack of production was caused due to “He never played with a good QB”. After two years of watching Jalen Reagor, that isn’t exactly encouraging. Not that I am comparing them in any way. Robinson has been far superior.

DJ Clark: The Jaguars drafted DJ in the 2nd round of the 2018 draft out of LSU. His 2019 campaign was fantatsic. He brought in 73 catches for 1008 yards and 8 touchdowns. Everything you want from a 2nd round pick. He was limited to 12 games and 700 yards in 2020 and only played in 4 games in 2021. Coming off a fractured ankle that he suffered in week 4, he should be healthy for the spring. He turns 26 in September, so there is reason to believe he could rekindle some of that 2019 magic again. One to watch.

Michael Gallup: He would be an upgrade, but I don’t know if he has the attributes, or the drop rate, that the Eagles want to invest 40–50 million in. He will probably get a 4 year deal with 30 million guaranteed. At 25 years old, he will surely have a healthy market.

OBJ: Long shot, but who knows. He will be available, and would be a clear upgrade at the position.

The cost to acquire one of the veteran receivers will not come cheap. They need someone experienced in the room. At what cost, remains to be seen. Howie and the Eagles will need to determine a value to place on that. Drafting another WR in the first could happen again well.

Safties (3)

Justin Reid: The 24 year old Houston Texan becomes an unrestricted free agent when the new year begins in March. The 3rd round pick out of Stanford has played in 57 games and been the mainstay in the Texans defense. The safety has 315 tackles and 7 interceptions since coming into the league and at 24 year old would be a long term solution to one of the biggest needs on the team. With Anthony Harris and Rodney McLeood not under contract for 2022, the Eagles could have two new starters at the position next season.

Marcus Williams: The Saints free safety is reaching what should be the prime of his career, at 26 years old. If the Eagles are willing to spend some money at the position, he is likely one of the safer bets as he hasn’t been injured in his NFL career. He may never get over being the player exposed in the playoff game that sent the Vikings to Philly (on the Eagles way to their first Super Bowl win) but he will command a 4 or 5 year contract worth 15 million a year.

Jess Bates III: Like Marcus Williams, injury will not be a concern with Bates. He is likely to be franchised by the Bengals if a long term deal is not worked out, but he is someone to monitor if he hits the market.

Edge (1) I think they are going to draft one, possibly two Edge rushers in April. If they wanted to the route of free agency, there is one who I would think is a good option.

Emmanuel Ogbah: He will probably command a 3 year 50 million dollar contract, but appears to be an ascending player. He is good against the run and has been improving his pressures every year in the league. I do not think the Eagles would get into this price range, but Howie does like gambling on players with upside, and Ogbah does seem to be on the rise.

***Two possible trade options at the position, interestingly, are from the same team. The Packers Za’Darius Smith andPreston Smith are both free agents in 2023, and would not have more value in a trade than they do now. A third round pick might get a deal done for one of them, if Howie has interest.

Cornerbacks: (1) The Eagles probably draft a corner in the first round (Kaiir or Gardner) but if they look into free agency, look no further than JC Jackson.

JC Jackson: If the Eagles want to invest at corner in the open market, JC is the best available. He has proven to be able to handle any assignment. He can play man, zone, and has elite coverage skills. He rarely gets beat deep, and if a ball comes his way he has as good a shot at catching it as the receiver he’s covering. JC will cash in this offseason with a lucrative contract in the 4 to 5 year range averaging upwards of 20 million a year. At 26 years old he has a lot of good years ahead of him and he would be a dream to pair with Slay while they develop the younger corners already on the roster.

Linebackers (2)

De’Vondre Campbell: The Green Bay Packer LB had a nice season. He proved to be durable, good against the run, and solid tackler. The decision every GM has to make is if they believe he can do it again. Nearing 30 years of age, his best football could be behind him. There will be teams willing to take a chance on the veteran this offseason. He could land a two year deal worth between 12–15 million.

Leighton Vander Esch: Eagles fans know him well. The Dallas Cowboy linebacker has had his share of injuries and would seemingly be a stretch for an Eagles team looking to avoid players with the injury bug. Even still, he would be an upgrade to what the Eagles have had, and might be worth a look. I would not expect a lucrative long term would be needed to acquire his services.

In addition to the possibility of moving one or more of their 10 draft picks, the Eagles could look into dealing OT Andre Dillard. They have no shot at recouping a first rounder back, but he has proven to be a solid back up at left tackle. He could start at LT on a lot of NFL teams and would probably net a 4th rounder back in a deal. A player for player swap could also be explored.

As always, Thank You for reading!

David 2/4/22

Follow me at @PHLEagleNews 

State of the Philadelphia Eagles, Off Season 2022

Who is on the roster, who will be, and the projected player allocation for each position. 

The Eagles go into the off season, coming fresh off a playoff appearance, and loaded with 3 first round picks. A very unique position to be in. 

All 11 starters at seasons end were brought in via their own draft picks. Hurts, Sanders, DeVonta, Reagor, Quez, Goedert, Lane, Kelce, Mailata, Dickerson and Opeta (signed UFA). The Eagles will probably go with a defensive heavy draft in April, as well as trading or signing one or two defensive free agents.

(3) QB- Jalen Hurts, Gardner Minshew and Reid Sinnett 

Howie, seemingly, committed to Hurts for the 2022 season during the end of season press conference. Unless they get an offer for Minshew that they can’t refuse, I would expect all 3 to remain on the roster. *I would never discount Howie drafting a QB. If there is one in this draft who they really like, it is a real possibility. In any round. Including first.*

(4) RB- Miles Sanders, Kenneth Gainwell, Jason Huntley and a draft pick.

Boston Scott is a restricted free agent, but I would expect him to be back. If the Eagles take a running back in the draft, Huntley probably goes back to the practice squad. 

(5) WR- DeVonta Smith, Quez Watkins, Jalen Reagor, and JJ Arcega-Whiteside and one via free agency or trade.

Greg Ward, like Scott, is a restricted free agent that I believe will be back with the Birds for 2022. Reagor might not see much playing time unless he comes into camp as a new man, but he will probably be one of the 5 wideouts on the roster. I expect the fifth to come via free agency. Can never rule out another draft pick, or trade, with Howie though. If they do not go the route of acquiring a veteran, I’d love to see Erik Ezukanma on this roster. (probable rd 3 pick)

(3) TE- Dallas Goedert, Jack Stoll, Tyree Jackson, a FA or a mid round draft pick for a pass catching tight end

Tyree will start the season on I.R. He is rehabbing from a torn ACL after being injured in the last regular season against Dallas. He may be on I.R. all season. 

(10) OL- Jason Kelce, Landon Dickerson, Jordan Mailata, Lane Johnson, Isaac Seumalo, Andre Dillard, Jack Driscoll, Sua Opeta, Jack Anderson and draft pick.

The Eagles could use one of their 3 first round picks on a long term Jason Kelce replacement, (Tyler Linderbaum) or at the very least a later round pick for someone to learn and develope under Jason and Coach Stoutland (if Kelce comes back another year). Later round options Cam Jurgens (who has a little Jason Kelce in him when you watch him play) possible 3rd rounder, and James Empey (4th/5th)


(4) DT Fletcher Cox, Hargrave, Milton Williams, Marlon Tuipulotu (or a draft pick)

(5) DE Brandon Graham, Josh Sweat, and Tarron Jackson

The Eagles will probably use one of the first round picks on a DE, and add another via draft or free agency. The Eagles love building through the lines, and I expect that trend to continue. Draft probables: David Ojabo and George Karlaftis

(5) LB- TJ Edwards, Davion Taylor, Shaun Bradley, a draft pick, and one free agent.

It is hard to imagine the Eagles using more than one draft pick on a LB. If they don’t retain restricted free agent Alex Singleton or free agent Genard Avery, it would make sense they sign someone else. This position needs a huge upgrade, and the team knows it. Cuuld this be the year they finally use a first round pick to address line backer? Maybe not, but a high pick is needed.

(5) S- Marcus Epps, K’Von Wallace, and 3 TBD

A lot of holes at this position. Re-signing McLeod on a one year deal makes a lot of sense. A high caliber S via trade does too. Justin Reid is a very popular target. A late round draft pick will likely be used as well. 

(6) CB- Big Play Slay, Avonte Maddox, Zech McPhearson, Tay Gowan, Kary Vincent Jr, and for the first time since 2002 (Lito Sheppard), a first round pick on a corner?

With 3 first round picks, the Eagles will have the ammo,and high end talent available, to draft a game changing corner to pair with Slay. Draft Probables: Kaiir Elam, Ahmad Sauce Gardner, or Andrew Booth Jr. 

(1) LS- Rick Lovato

(1) K- Jake Elliott 

(1) P- Undrafted free agent to compete (with the hope) to beat out Siposs. 

So to recap:

9 draft picks: (if they use them all) 

2 DE, 1 CB, 1 S, 1 LB, 1 C, 1 TE, 1 RB, 1 DT or WR

Free Agency or trade: 

Safety- Justin Reid or Marcus Williams

Wide Receiver- Mike Williams or Juju Smith-Schuster 

Linebacker- Alexander Johnson as a stop gap. Hasson Reddick will probaby be too rich for the Eagles, but Leighton Vander Esch would probably cost half of that. A 3 year deal for 24-27 million would probably get that done. 

First round mock:

15- Tyler Linderbaum

16- David Ojabo

19- Kaiir Elam

With 3 First Round Picks, the 2022 NFL Draft Takes Center Stage
Philadelphia Eagles Draft Needs

As always, thank you for reading.

David 1/23/22

Follow me @PHLEagleNews