The free agency period raises 90% of my annoyances with football. No matter how much history shows playing in the mid-range of the free agent market has the best outcomes and that the high-end, especially aging players on multi-year deals, more often than not results in regret and future cap issues, fans always want the top-end, big names. If you are somebody that wanted Howie to sign Allen Robinson AND Marcus Williams AND J.C. Jackson AND Chandler Jones AND Bobby Wagner AND Myles Jack and frequently tweets “lol the cap isn’t real”, maybe click away now…
If you are still here, I’ll give a quick view on the cap and if you believe in the cap, skip ahead a paragraph. The simplest analogy for the “cap isn’t real” people is saying “my take-home pay isn’t real.” Sure, I can make my take-home pay irrelevant this month and next month by buying things on credit. But my overall financial situation becomes very real soon enough. Pushing player money into the future is buying on credit. A team – if they aren’t in an already bad cap situation (dead cap) – can make the cap “not real” this year, maybe next but it all comes due at some point. It could/would make sense for teams that think they are close to winning a championship (the Chargers this year)… it will ultimately turn out to be a huge regret for teams that aren’t close (Jacksonville paying way above market this year).
The cost and value of positions in free agency
But the point of this article is to look at what different positions cost in free agency and the relative value of each (and how teams should think about free agency vs. the draft).
First a look at what free agents cost in each position group. The first table is the average annual cost (AAV) for the top 5 free agents at each position from 2019 to 2021. The second table is the same but is for the top 10 free agents by position.
Couple of points:
- Ignore the QB data – starters rarely hit free agency so these numbers are almost always backups. But some starters do hit – Brady and Rivers in 2020 for example – which swing these averages greatly. I almost left QBs off but here they are.
- The most expensive positions in free agency are the premium positions – pass catchers, pass rushers, pass defenders, and tackles. OLB is separated from LBs above because OLBs are pass rushers (Haason Reddick, Bud Dupree, and Za’Darius Smith).
- At the bottom of free agency cost are positions like running back, linebacker, defensive tackle, and safety (more on safety later as this could be changing) that have been de-valued recently.
Now, a look at the cost of different tiers of free agents (top 5 by AAV, the 6-10 free agents by AAV, 11-15, and so on) by position. Also included is the current state of the top 5 free agents at each position so far in 2022.
Note that the 2022 free agent class is still in progress so average cost of free agents isn’t useful yet. But we can use the cost of the top 5 – the cost of the top 5 2022 free agents cannot go down from here. If other FAs are signed at higher AAVs, it will only increase the 2022 numbers above. For that reason, ignore the positions that are dropping in value – the full picture isn’t known yet. But the positions that have increased in value is important.
Top-end wide receivers are up over 16% in 2022 from the past 3 year average and OLB pass rushers are up over 50%. Safeties and interior OL are both up a lot as well. Corners and DTs are up a little.
Some of this is the because of better players hitting the market but it nowhere near tells the entire story. This next view shows for each position the quality of free agents in each tier measured by Approximate Value (AV). If you aren’t familiar with AV, it is a metric from Pro Football Reference that is the best single value metric for players – it measure every player’s impact on scoring and is highly correlated with team wins, player performance, EPA, and almost any other metric that measures success. The nice thing with AV is it is a number that every position has (unlike EPA).
Costs for the top pass-rushing OLBs is up over 56% in 2022 and the OLBs that have signed this year are “better” – in 2022, OLBs have an average AV of 8.24 vs. 7.33 in the 2019-2021 period. But this does not explain the rise in prices totally – when you compare player quality (AV) to cost, teams were “paying” 1.28M per AV the last 3 years but in 2022, they are willing to “pay” 1.66M per AV. This means 29% (the far right column) of the rise in OLB free agent costs in 2022 is teams just paying more.
The other interesting one is receiver and one that we all are familiar with. The top 2022 WR free agents are being paid 16% more in 2022 but the quality of these receivers as measured by AV is actually down this year. Teams are hugely bidding up WR prices this year, almost doubling (up 76%), much more than the quality of WRs can explain. And we all can see this – Jacksonville WAY exceeded the market signing Christian Kirk ($2.4M per AV) and Zay Jones ($3.4M per AV). Allen Robinson is also almost double his value ($2.0M per AV). All five of the top WRs signed exceeded historical averages. If these receivers really take a step up in performance, than they grow into their value but it is a big leap to think these receivers, especially the older ones, will perform that much better.
Tight ends stick out here as well – a smaller sample size but they have been bid up in recent years while the quality has also been questionable. New England inexplicably WAY overpaid for Jonnu Smith ($5.4M/AV) and Hunter Henry ($3.8M/AV) last year… Jacksonville signing Tyler Eifert ($2.9M/AV) and Cleveland signing Austin Hooper ($2.3M/AV) in 2020… every one of these is a bad deal.
And lastly, safeties. Safety has historically been de-prioritized from a contract perspective – remember the first chart had safety as the 3rd lowest paid position on average and one that has decreased recently. But 2022 so far has been huge for safeties – the average pay for the top 5 signed in 2022 so far is up 34% with several expected high priced free agents still remaining. And when you compare it to the quality of free agents this year, the cost normalized to player value is up 59% and will go up more once the remaining free agents sign.
Maybe safety is an anomaly this year and will revert back to a lower paid position. But I believe the Staley / Fangio / Eberflus defenses (which includes Gannon’s) taking over the league may be driving a re-look at the value of safety and what is needed. Teams are playing more two-high and split-field safeties that have deep responsibility but expected to be able to come in against the run. Kansas City and the Jets both play a lot of two-high and signed safeties much above market. Baltimore signed Marcus Williams, the top safety available this year, and play a lot of Cover 1, but value his coverage and ball skills.
Thoughts on the Eagles initial free agent moves
The general feeling on the Eagles free agent moves so far is somewhere between disappointment and anger. I am less negative than most as I thought the big names were neither realistic nor smart moves, but share some of the concern. They must come away with a receiver and they will – most of the big names I shake my head at but Robert Woods (trade, not free agent, but same thing) would have been nice. Some thoughts:
Pass rusher: Haason Reddick was a favorite of many and obviously the big move the Eagles have made so far. Reddick valued at at $2.0M/AV, slightly below the average of the top 5. Given his age and what he brings, this is an amazing signing – not only for who he is, but the relative value.
Wide receiver: I still would like Jarvis Landry, Jamison Crowder, or Keelan Cole. All have good hands and would (should, but who knows this year) be affordable. Everybody is focused on a big receiver (which would be nice but there aren’t a ton of them) but the Eagles could really use a slot receiver. They just need another good option that can take some focus away from DeVonta and Goedert. They should invest here again in the draft.
Safety: I am ok with Anthony Harris coming back on a one-year but Marcus Williams (at the right price) would have been nice. I still think somebody like Deshon Elliott or Jaquiski Tartt is needed. A lot want Tyran but ignore that he had back-to-back down years and is honestly about the same right now as McLeod or Harris. And a lot have Terrell Edmunds and Jayron Kearse on their wishlists but both are really box safeties and not what I think the Eagles are looking for. I would invest very high in the draft here – I would absolutely go after Daxton Hill or Lewis Cine.
Linebacker: They are affordable in free agency and the Eagles should bring depth in, although I think they are more positive on TJ Edwards and Davion. Kyzir White and Josey Jewell are two I like.
Defensive Tackle: Fletch is a more complicated discussion. On the restructured deal the Eagles are paying him $14M a year or $2.0M/AV vs. $1.5M/AV as the average for the top five DTs this year. Is he overpaid? Yes. If you consider him a top 10 free agent, his contract should be in the $8-9M / year range. But remember, Fletch had a $25M dead cap hit so the way to think about it is would you rather pay $14M for a 7AV Fletch or $25M for nothing? I thought Tim Settle who signed with Buffalo for 2 years, $9M would have been a great addition but maybe the Eagles didn’t look at him or he wanted to go to Buffalo. Monday I posted what I thought was a non-chalk mock for the Eagles where I went with Devonte Wyatt in the first (and no EDGE) and within an hour, the news hit on Fletch, making a draft like that much more likely.
Cornerback: I am not sure what the Eagles plan is here but think they believe in Zech more than we all think. I thought Rasul Douglas would be an interesting return as he fits Gannon’s scheme much better, but also thought it would probably be an overpay because of his year last year. Nelson could still make sense. Mike Hughes is a zone corner that tackles well and would fit. Xavier Rhodes and Mike Alford are both old, but could be a stop-gap. But again, they need to draft here.
What does this mean for free agency and the draft?
The premium positions are really hard to get in free agency and when you do, teams pay up significantly for them. Stating the obvious but pass rushers, corners, receivers, tackles (and quarterbacks) should be continually invested in via the draft.
Below shows the average AV for each position by draft round. As context on AV, top players will be in the 6-8 range (which is where the top 5 free agents are) with truly elite players even higher – the very top elite players will be 10-12 or higher. Any AVs in the 2-3 range are really replacement level players – it really shows that getting any starters in the third round or later is tough.
The premium positions are at the top and outlined in red. Average AV for these positions is often in the 4 range which reflects players that bust in top rounds, but if you want good corners, pass rushers, tackles, and receivers, (1) it is unsustainable and too expensive to continually use free agency to acquire them and (2) you better draft them high.
Again, this isn’t revolutionary but teams don’t always follow this and fans wanting to spend on every free agent misses the long-term implications. Howie is mostly right on positional value except for cornerback and we see the results – over the last 10 years we have either had to pay in free agency/trade (Slay) or continued to bring in a long list of hopeful stopgaps.
Don’t get annoyed when we don’t sign every big-name free agent. The Eagles actually have the 3rd highest average free agent ranking (the average slotting of free agents) while being best in the league in pay vs. value. What they are doing is right philosophically. Do they get every move right? No. Are there players they miss on? Yep. Do they need to add more this year? Absolutely, and they will. But the Eagles do what is shown to have the best value.