Eagles 2024 Draft Targets: Trade Ups, Lucky Falls, Options at 22, and Who I’m Passing On

Here are the 11 draft targets I would have for the Eagles including:

• 3 players I’d trade-up for
• 2 that you would jump on if they fell
• 3 that I want if we stayed at pick 22
• and 3 trade down options

Also at the end are some popular names I am not targeting for various reasons.

Thinking through options

Mock drafts are great but only speak to one outcome – you maybe trade up or down but still pick a single player without context of what other options were.

Here I’m trying to play out what could happen and how I would think – who would make me decide to trade up, what would cause me to trade down, and who I want.

BPA vs. targeting positions

Mocks also always look like you are focused on a specific position or need and ignoring BPA. Bad teams force a position or need, but teams don’t purely go after BPA – the way I’d explain Howie is “he takes the best player available at a position he values”. Teams also move around the draft to align value and what they are looking for.

In this, my targets here are heavy in the secondary and defensive line with 4 CBs, 2 pass rushers, and 1 DT. But I also try to show when I would take other positions with WR and OL showing up. And which I am not taking.

What happens: QBs, WRs, and OTs dominate the top of the draft, pushing down some defensive positions the Eagles value and have as long-term needs. And this is the most likely scenario in my opinion.

QBs, WRs, and OTs are projected to be 10 of the top 12 picks which pushes positions the Eagles probably want down. And I expect CB and DL to then have their run in the teens – 5 of the picks from 13-21 are projected to be CBs and DL.

This is the trade-up scenario. I posted a couple of weeks ago that sending picks 22 and 50 to Seattle for 16 and 81 works.

And here’s who I would trade-up for:

Arnold is a guy the Eagles will love as he brings character and leadership. One of the only truly inside/outside versatile CBs in this class, he fits a long-term need as the Eagles will likely need 1-2 CBs next year.

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I see no way he gets near his current ADP of pick 16, but hey, Christian Gonzalez‘s pre-draft ADP was 9 last year and he went at 17. One potential negative is he will be 23 in July and some teams will avoid older prospects, but the CB-likely teams (IND, LAR, JAX, PIT) all have histories of drafting older prospects.

Quinyon wasn’t asked to play man at Toledo, may need some time, but he showed at the Senior Bowl he absolutely can. Add in his 23% PBU rate and you are hopefully getting a long-term answer at outside corner.

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Howie said he wants to get the defensive swagger back and it played into the CJGJ signing. Here we get possibly the draft’s biggest trash talker and somebody that thrives punishing opponents. He gives me BG vibes listening to him talk about how much chatters during the game and enjoys getting under opponents’ skins.

And Verse is really good – he’s 95th percentile in every pass rush metric including a 21.8% win rate, only Latu is better this year. He’ll turn 24 during the season which will have a few teams skip over him.

What happens: Every year there’s a guy or two that drops for various reasons – injury concerns, age, positional value, or just because other players are taken ahead of them.

Last year the Eagles benefited when both Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith fell to their picks. The Patriots got Christian Gonazlez at 17 when he was projected at 9. The Ravens got Kyle Hamilton at 14 when he was projected at 7. Who could fall enough this year to jump on?

Yeah, probably not. I’m including Brock just because there’s been a lot of chatter on if the Eagles should take him if he falls. To be clear, I’d take him, but I don’t think there is any chance he falls despite him not testing or TE de-valuation. Past top TEs (Pitts, Hockenson) went right where they were expected to go.

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I would probably trade up for him. Since 2020, only Micah Parsons has a higher pressure rate than Latu’s 21% or his 4.6% sack rate. And only Micah and Nolan Smith beat his his 16.2% run stop rate. And, for those that hate our EDGE rushers dropping into coverage even though there’s no avoiding it, Latu may be the best in this class in coverage. He’s by far my favorite pass rusher in this class. However…

Two complaints you will hear on Latu – his age (he’ll be 24 in December) and the medicals. Of course his medicals must check out which none of us will know.

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A quick note and maybe a different perspective on these older EDGE rushers, as I generally don’t want older prospects. It’s getting really hard for teams to even keep good pass rushers after their rookie deal – of the top 18 EDGEs drafted between 2018-20 that have hit the end of their rookie deal, 10 of them have left their drafting team with several forcing trades.

EDGE is becoming a position you have to continually restock – even if you can keep your guy, you will pay to keep them. And if you continually restock, is taking an older guy in the 1st with the 5th year option that bad of a plan?

What happens: Maybe the top CBs and DL go earlier than expected, making a trade up too costly. But regardless, there are going to be good choices if the Eagles stay at 22.

Wiggins has generated a ton of disagreement because of his size and run support. And a guy that most view as not a fit for Vic Fangio “because Wiggins is a man cover CB” even though Fangio has been 15th, 4th, and 13th in the league in man coverage utilization his last three seasons. Wiggins plays tough in coverage and sometimes it’s as simple as a player showing you with no projection needed. Against NFL talent, Wiggins shut down Keon, Legette, and Tez showing he can lock down big, physical, and fast WRs. On his run support? He can be better but this is overstated – the average CB makes one tackle attempt against the run per game in the NFL… At only 21 years old, he will continue to get better.

He’s a guy I’d trade up a bit for but since he’s projected at 23, I’ll leave him here in range of their pick.

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Byron Murphy was one of the first guys I wrote on this draft season (here) and would still be one of my favorite picks. Most don’t see this as a need with back-to-back years taking DT in the 1st, but two things:

• Over the past two years we’ve lost Fletch and Hargrave and the depth after Jalen Carter, Jordan Davis, and Milt is un-proven
• DT prices have gone up a ton – 30 year olds DJ Reader, Sheldon Rankins, and Grover Stewart all got $11-13M AAV this off-season

What if we can’t, or won’t, extend Milton Williams? We love Milt but he has never been above a 7% pass rush win rate, one of the lowest in the league at DT – he’s assumed to get an extension but honestly I don’t think I’d give him a deal if he will go above $10-12M.

Murphy’s stats compare well with the best DTs from recent drafts – since 2019 only Quinnen Williams was better than Byron’s 15% pressure, 12% run stop, and 2.6% sack rates.

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Another guy that is viewed as a high likelihood pick with the recent top-30 visit. Like Latu, this depends on medicals – I end up reading medical studies every year on various injuries and Jones fractures are interesting. A 2018 study showed players with Jones fractures have:

• 35% decrease in performance over the first two years post surgery with fewer games started
• Performance decreases are (unsurprisingly) greater for skill positions with WR and RB having 35-60% decreases (CBs are not broken out from SAFs in this study)
• 15-56% have seen incomplete healing depending on the location of the break (medial and dorsal are lower, plantar and lateral are higher)
• Re-fracture rates are low at 4-12%

Some have returned from Jones fractures well (Edelman, Deebo) while others haven’t (Dez Bryant). From my weekend medical self-training, two things are critical – first, taking proper time to recover which, given it’s the off-season, should be easy for Kool-Aid and, second, ensuring complete healing. The real risk is incomplete healing which is why the medical are so important.

It’s a risk for a top pick. But when Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr both point to Kool-Aid as the best corner they faced, it’s worth having him on the list. If the CT shows it’s healed, draft him.

What happens: We all see this with sims where the draft goes poorly and our guys go early. And maybe a trade-up just isn’t possible. And here, the Eagles have some good options at some of the deepest positions in the draft if they trade down.

Like DT, most see as not the biggest need but this would be one of my favorite picks they could make. As I wrote in my positional mock, WR is one of the handful of positions you just can’t get anywhere but the draft. The Eagles could use deep speed and I’d love to see defenses continually forced into “which bad decision do I make” trying to defend Worthy’s speed, AJ and DeVonta, Saquon, Goedert, and oh Hurts can still make you pay and needs to be watched.

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Projected at pick 41 which I still don’t buy, but this WR class is insane and there’s going to be R1 talents that drop into the 2nd. Taking WRs that can beat man coverage usually serves you well and he’s behind only Malik Nabers in this class at 4.02 YPRR. And against single coverage, he’s one of the best in recent drafts, behind only DeVonta, Tee Higgins, and Ja’Marr Chase.

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I’ve been vocal that I don’t love OL options in the 1st and I still don’t, but, I’ll throw everybody a bone here. If we did take OL, here’s a guy I could get behind with a trade down.

So many write him off as a tackle, but he may be able to play there – he and Zach Tom have very similar measurables. He’s just so clean, plays nasty, won’t turn 22 until June, and is the only guy in this class that truly may bring 5 position versatility. You have to believe he has some ability at OT to take him here otherwise it just isn’t the right value.

You may disagree with some of the guys I have below which is fine. I’ve written several times on how almost half of the 1st round is wrong every draft – some are due to injuries and some were overlooked issues. Often players just have wider ranges of outcomes which is ignored as pre-draft evals typically fall into “good” or “bad”.

These aren’t guys I think are bad, but are picks that I just don’t like the value on, don’t like the fit to Philly, or think have extra risk:

Just about any tackle

Sure take one on day 2, but you cannot sit a premium pick
You can never say “never” on a premium position as there could always be an overwhelming BPA available. Yes, you would take Alt but he’s going way above us. For guys possibly in our range:

• JC Latham (EDP 18) – A lot of people love Latham because he’s a classic RT and he’s very good, but he doesn’t have the movement skills Philly is used to with Mailata and Lane.
• Troy Fautanu (EDP 19)- I’ve written why I wouldn’t take him high, his film against good pass rushers is really concerning on the edge. He’s a guard only in my opinion.
• Amarius Mims (EDP 24) – He’s young, big, moves really well and would do well developing under Stoutland. Of all the guys, this pick is the one I would hate the least but I’d also be very surprised if he wasn’t the Steelers pick at 20.
• Tyler Guyton (EDP 29) – Another like Mims that is young and under-developed but has the size and athleticism Philly would want.

It would take a great value being there, the board falling completely wrong for the Eagles.

I may eat these words which is fine, but I don’t buy that the Eagles are seriously looking at OT in R1 and think it’s just scouting and maybe misdirection. I’ve written so much on this and won’t repeat it, but you can see my reasons here.

A guy like Kiran Amegadjie or Kingsley Suamataia, both young and requiring development but the size and feet needed, are just better value on day 2.

Cooper DeJean

If you hated our CBs playing 10 yards off but you love DeJean…
A highly loved prospect for Philly, he’s a guy I’ve struggled on more than almost anybody else and just re-watched him for the 3rd time. I’ll sum it up this way – a city that loses its collective mind seeing CBs play 10 yards off is in love with a guy that is best playing 10 yards off…

He had a really bad game against Ohio State where he could not stay attached to WRs, but many guys have looked bad against the Buckeyes, so I’ll give him a break there.

To me, Wisconsin is the most useful game to watch as he played more press and traditional CB than usual. He didn’t even go against their top WR Will Pauling but continually gave up separation on breaks to Bryson Green. For the game, he allowed 62 yards on 3 catches but there were 3 poor throws/drops where he was beaten and would have made his number even worse.

What puzzles me is you see watching him and every draft profile includes as well “stiffness, extra steps, and change of direction” concerns but these for some reason are overlooked by many despite typically being killer traits for corners.

He may be end up being a good pro and, if he does, I agree with those that think it will be at safety as I just don’t see a cover CB at all. Another guy I could be wrong on but if I’m taking a CB high, it’s going to be a guy that can man cover. That’s not DeJean.

Kamari Lassiter / Ennis Rakestraw

Two CBs with really concerning testing numbers
Both were projected R1 guys and their ADPs have fallen recently, but they remain popular Eagles targets in a trade down. But it’s hard to find an NFL CB that has been successful with their testing numbers – Lassiter is a 4.6+ guy, Rakestraw a mid 4.5s, and both have 10-yard splits in the upper 1.5s. Pros with similar numbers are limited to Rasul Douglas and Mike Hilton. That’s it.

They may end up nickels, but I’m not taking non-outside CBs with testing questions this high.

Chop Robinson

Traits but where’s the production
He’s explosive but his production is really concerning as he always seems to be a guy near, but not making, the play – over his 3 year college career and 1,021 snaps, he has 10 sacks and 40 tackles total.

Brian Thomas Jr

Poor showing in match-ups against good man CBs
Another one that many will disagree with as he’s a popular target right now. I value match-ups against future NFLers and I just don’t see examples of Thomas beating good CBs in man or press.

Against Alabama, Thomas had 3 catches for 36 yards – two came on soft coverage and the other a coverage breakdown. Aside from one snap where he got Kool-Aid turned around, he didn’t separate against Terrion and Kool-Aid all game. Yes, he’s big and has speed, but it doesn’t show up in quickness in and out of breaks.

His 1.97 YRR vs. man coverage is one of the lowest coming out for top WRs and you see this on film. There are a lot of WRs that didn’t succeed with similar numbers, but also DK Metcalf who did. Thomas may be good and I may regret passing on him, but I’m not taking a WR high in the draft that I haven’t seen able to beat future NFL CBs in man coverage.

Safeties

Not a position of value
Whether you are good with the Eagles safeties right now or not, it’s not a position you take here. First, no safety in this class is graded in the 1st round and, second, safety is in the middle of a multi-year devaluation in free agency.

The Eagles made the 2nd biggest signing this offseason with CJGJ at $9M… you could have gotten Kamren Curl for $4.5M or Jordan Fuller for $3.25M. And I still wonder if Avonte was brought back as much for a safety insurance policy as he was for nickel.

Edgerrin Cooper (or any LB)

Just no…
You still see people every day calling for the Eagles to take Edgerrin Cooper in the 1st because” it’s our biggest need”. Just no… that’s not how you draft. And I’m not even sure he’s the best LB in this class – I’d take Junior Colson on day two over Cooper high.

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That’s who I am prioritizing (and not prioritizing) in the 1st round. A lot of these guys will go above them, but that’s the point – it’s my list of the best guys that I would want and where. Not all will be there but somebody will be.

If you haven’t seen David’s draft tiers, check it out – it is the culmination of a tremendous amount of work and film watching and a good guide of player value.

Philadelphia Eagles Only 2024 NFL Draft Tiers

He and I align on most, but not every, guy which is the way it should be. But to sum up the above, I have:

• Both of his “Tier of their own” guys (Terrion and Quinyon)
• 5 of his 8 “Tier 1” guys
• 2 of his 20 “Tier 2” guys

Fly Eagles fly, and can’t wait to see the draft.