The 2022 draft is widely expected to be a deep class for pass rushers, corners, and wide receivers but it may turn out to be one of the best punter classes in a long time. San Diego State’s Matt Araiza, Colorado State’s Ryan Stonehouse, National Champion Jake Camarda, and Penn State’s Jordan Stout are all draftable. And I believe Stout, who was kind enough to speak with me for this article, is not only the best in this class but projects to be one of the best punters to enter the NFL over the past 20 years.
Specialists can be forgotten positions with the league’s recent increase in 4th down aggressiveness and the analytic community’s obsession with Expected Points Added (EPA) justifying, on paper, passing-in-all-situations. But I started digging into punter data months ago to change that view and to answer how much a good punter is worth and when to draft one. I didn’t set out to de-throne a god, but when you look at what generates the most punting value, Jordan Stout stands out from the rest of the class.
From soccer to kicking specialist to the nation’s top punter
Jordan came to punting relatively late in his career. Like many kickers, Jordan started off playing soccer in high school when the quarterback of his high school team asked if he could kick field goals. He tried one, made a 40-yarder, and his football career began.
Growing up in Cedar Bluff, Virginia in western Virginia where the Hokies rule, Jordan walked on at Virginia Tech to kick. Serving primarily as their kickoff specialist and an occasional extra point or field goal attempt, Jordan finished third among college kickers with an 84.5% touchback percentage. But playing behind sophomore and now-Chicago Bear kicker Brian Johnson, Jordan entered the transfer portal to have a better shot at playing. Penn State moved quickly and Jordan moved north.
In his sophomore year at Penn State, Jordan continued his kickoff duties but started to make his mark as their long field goal specialist. In his first game he kicked a 53-yarder against Idaho. Then, in week three Stout came on right before halftime and set a Penn State record by hitting a 57-yard field goal against my alma mater Pitt.
That offseason, with Penn State’s punter and now New Orleans Saint Blake Gillikin graduating, Jordan worked hard to add punting to his skillset. I asked Jordan when the staff knew his potential and he explained:
They realized I had a fast leg before I even arrived, but when I got there and showed them my repeatability that’s when they began to trust me.”
While still handling kickoffs and long field goals, Jordan took 33 punts with a 41.6 yard average and 38.9 yard net, a good but unremarkable first season punting. But digging deeper into the punting data, he showed some of the high-level traits that would make him a great punter the next season – his 4.14 average hang time was 8th best in college and he showed great short-field control with 8 downed punts inside the 20 yardline vs. only 1 touchback.
After only 33 career punts through his redshirt junior season, Jordan focused this past offseason on punting and took a giant step forward in 2021.
- 44.6 net yardage (3rd in college behind on Michael Turk and Adam Korsak)
- 4.34 second hang time (1st)
- 2.7 average return yards allowed (3rd)
- An elite ratio of 37 punts downed inside the 20 vs. only 3 touchbacks
- NFL-level operation time with no blocked punts in college
Putting an all-time senior season in context
I previously wrote on punting analytics (“Drafting a Punter Makes Analytical Sense” and “What’s the Value of a Good Punt“) and used great data from Puntalytics. The most valuable punts come down to a few main things:
- Distance and hang time
- “Wins”, or locating the ball
- Short-field punting and downing inside the 20
Distance and hangtime
What analytics shows: Punt value (as measured by EPA+) is driven by punt distance and hangtime. Punters that lead in punt value have a +1 to +3 point impact per game in the NFL vs. a league average punter and +3 to +5 point impact vs. the bottom punters
This is one of the all-time best punter draft classes with National Champion bulldog Jake Camarda, San Diego State’s punt god Matt Araiza, Colorado State’s Ryan Stonehouse, and Jordan Stout. All are some of the best measured punters in recent history and each is draftable but Jordan stands alone. The below shows every college punter since 2016 by their average hang time and punt distance.
Nobody in college last year neared Jordan’s combination of distance, hang time, and short-field accuracy. And since 2016, as far back as there is reliable punting data, only Sterling Hofrichter in 2020 (43.0 distance and 4.51 average hangtime) and Michael Turk in 2021 (45.6 and 4.20) approached Jordan in both.
And putting these numbers in context to the NFL, last season only one punter – Bryan Anger (punting in a dome) edged out Stout’s numbers. In 2020, Jack Fox (another dome punter) and Jake Bailey were the only two. And in the 2017, 2018, and 2019 seasons, no NFL punter equaled Jordan’s numbers. What he did this year was special.
“Wins”, locating the ball, and preventing returns
What analytics shows: Every extra return yard an opponent is allowed raises their expected scoring by 0.07 points per yard on their next drive
Distance alone gets the headlines but it is not what punting value is about. The punt god Matt Araiza is a great punter, one of the best to come out, but there is much more to punting than distance. Intentionally going for pure distance, his 3.92 second average hang time allowed an average return of 10.5 yards. In the NFL where return units are better, this won’t work.
Stout was the best in college, only allowing 15 of his punts to have an attempted return with only 7 going for positive yards. He allowed a total of 41 total return yards on 67 punts all season, by far the lowest return average allowed among this class (Camarda allowed a 9.6 average, Stonehouse was at 13.0, and Araiza at 10.5).
And Jordan is the only college punter since 2016 with at least a 45.0 average distance and a 2.7 yard per return average. Only one other punter (Texas’ Cameron Dicker this past season) was close with a 2.9 yards per return allowed.
| Punts | # Returned (% Returned) | Total Return Yards (YPA) | # Positive Return Yds (% Positive Returns) | |
| Jordan Stout | 67 | 15 (22.4%) | 41 (2.7) | 7 (10.4%) |
| Matt Araiza | 86 | 23 (28.4%) | 242 (10.5) | 16 (18.6%) |
| Jake Camarda | 47 | 12 (25.5%) | 115 (9.6) | 9 (19.1%) |
| Ryan Stonehouse | 60 | 21 (35%) | 272 (13.0) | 19 (31.7%) |
Again to put Jordan’s 2.7 return yards per punt in context, in the NFL last season among punters with at least a 40 yard average, the best return yardage per punt allowed was 5.0 and the average was 8.6 yards.
Return yardage is not solely a punter stat as it depends on the coverage unit and Jordan points to the Penn State punt unit:
First off having great gunners is very important. The guys here that I had helped me tremendously. Definitely the best gunners in the nation. Also for me just working on placement directionally each time I punt helps.“
But a punter’s ability to place the ball near the sideline and keep the ball in the air to allow his cover team to get downfield is critical to limiting return yardage. And in 2021, Jordan was college’s most accurate punter. He explained his accuracy improvement in 2021 to BlueWhite Illustrated:
I think one of my strengths is directional punting. Compared to 2020, I think I was 38 win percentage. A win is putting the ball outside the hash. This year, I was 91 percent.”
There are a ton of good punting clips this draft year, I know, I think I have watched every one of them. But this one from the Senior Bowl shows both Jordan’s distance and his ability to locate kicks.
I’m not sure you will see a better punt – punting from his own 29 on a day that was cold with wind up to 20 mph, Jordan lands the ball within feet of the sideline at the 10, forcing one of college’s best returners, Velus Jones, backwards for a loss. For the day, he averaged a net of over 50 yards with a 4.59 second average hangtime on four punts, allowing minus 4 yards of returns.
Short-field punting and downing inside the 20
What analytics shows: Downing inside the 10 yardline is worth almost a full point vs. a touchback
Short-field punts are any punt attempted from midfield or closer to the opponent’s endzone. Analytically, these need to be separated out and looked at differently from other punts for two reasons: first, short-field punts suppress punter distance averages because the goal is not to kick as far as possible and second, placement and hangtime are critical as there is a big difference in value between a touchback and downing inside the 10 yardline.
In the post “What’s the Value of a Good Punt?“, I looked at actual scoring data between 2010-2021 and punts downed inside the 10 yardline lower opponent scoring by over 0.50 points. And, there is a carryover benefit to the punting team’s next possession, raising scoring by 0.47 points. A touchback actually “costs” the punting team, on average, almost a full point of value vs. a punt that is downed inside the 10.
Jordan was elite in short-field punts forcing an average starting field position on the 7 yardline and allowing zero touchbacks in 2021. Jake Camarda was also very good, forcing opponents to also start on the 7 yardline with only 1 touchback. Matt Araiza had 7 of his 19 short-field punts go for touchback with an average starting field position allowed on the 13 yardline. Stonehouse had the worst short-field performance – on 11 short-field punts, opponents had an average starting field position on the 19 yard line primarily because he put 6 into the endzone for a touchback.
| # Short-Field Punts | Avg. Opponent Starting Yardline | # Touchbacks (% Touchback) | |
| Jordan Stout | 12 | 7 | 0 (0%) |
| Jake Camarda | 6 | 7 | 1 (17%) |
| Matt Araiza | 19 | 13 | 7 (37%) |
| Ryan Stonehouse | 11 | 19 | 6 (55%) |
And Stout did this all season. For people that like punting, the Penn State / Rutgers game was the punting Super Bowl with Stout going against Rutgers’ Adam Korsak, who will be one of the top punters in next year’s class. The game started with 12 straight punts, 18 total punts in a field position battle game. Jordan showed how a great punter can impact a game – here is what he did to the Rutgers offense:
| Stout Punt | RUT Starting Field Position | RUT Drive Result |
| 52 yard punt from PSU 41, 12 yard return | RUT 19 | 1 yard, punt |
| 38 yard punt from RUT 41, no return | RUT 3 | 3 yards, punt |
| 36 yard punt from RUT 56, no return | RUT 8 | 9 yards, punt |
| 47 yard punt from PSU 44, no return | RUT 9 | 31 yards, punt |
| 39 yard punt from PSU 39, RUT return penalty | RUT 14 | 28 yards, punt |
| 53 yard punt from PSU 28, no return | RUT 19 | 14 yards, punt |
| 41 yard punt from PSU 26, no return | RUT 33 | 11 yards, punt |
| 37 yard punt from RUT 40, no return | RUT 3 | 1 yard, punt |
On his three short-field punts, he had Rutgers start on the 3 yardline twice and the 8 yardline the other. Across all 8 punts including three from 60 or more yards out, he forced an average start on the 13 yardline and allowed 12 total return yards for the game. Only once did Rutgers start outside their own 20 yardline.
This was the only game last season where Rutgers was held scoreless. Is this because of Stout’s punting? No, not only. But data shows a team’s expected scoring from inside the 20 yardline is less than 0.56 points per drive and is actually negative inside the 12 yardline. People may look at this and say “well, it was Rutgers” but they averaged 40 points per game in 2021, including scoring 13 against three ranked teams in the regular season (Ohio State, Michigan, and Michigan State) and 10 against 15th ranked Wake Forest in the Gator Bowl. They had no chance starting inside their 20 yardline on most drives.
Conditions: weather and elevation
What analytics shows: Punt distance increases by ~10% at 5,000 feet of elevation and cold weather decreases punt distance by a yard.
Conditions and weather are often overlooked, especially when just looking at analytics. I asked Jordan what most people don’t realize about punting and he pointed to weather.
What most people don’t realize is how much conditions can change the punt. If it’s windy the chances of you hitting a good ball decrease by a lot. As well as rain and snow. However that’s something you have to adjust to. Especially in college because there are no domes.”
Wind obviously greatly affects the quality of a punt but temperature impacts it as well. A 2011 study of NFL punting showed that below 39 degrees, punts average 1 yard shorter than warmer conditions. Of the top four punter prospects this year, Jordan is the only northern punter. For NFL teams that play outside and in poor weather
Besides weather and wind, the other often overlooked condition is elevation. Physicists and historical data both point to a 10% distance gain on kicks at Denver’s elevation. One specific study by Timothy Gay, a professor at the University of Nebraska, looked at the difference in kickoff distance at elevation for his book “Football Physics, the Science of the Game”. He found that for the same kickers, kicks in Denver traveled 7.3 yards further than lower elevation cities (70.1 yards in Denver vs. 62.8 away, again around the 10% gain range).
Ryan Stonehouse at Colorado State obviously benefits here, playing at home in Colorado and several away games at elevation. 70% of Stonehouse’s punts were above 3,900 feet and he averaged almost 3 yards more at elevation. Even Matt Araiza, whose home field is at sea level, kicked 17% of the time at elevation because of his conference (Air Force at 5,000 feet, Arizona at almost 2,400, and UNLV at 2,000). Ignoring short field punts which skew averages, Araiza averaged 3.5 yards further when kicking at elevation. Granted, this falls into the “small sample size” category with only 17 total kicks at elevation and his distance was still very good at sea level. But there is a benefit kicking at elevation.
I asked Jordan about pre-draft interest from NFL teams and his experience kicking in the north is something not being overloooked.
Playing in the north has definitely helped me in the long run. Most of the teams that primarily play cold games can see that I’m capable of performing well in the cold”
What does the future hold?
All four of this year’s punters – Matt Araiza, Ryan Stonehouse, Jake Camarda, and Jordan Stout – should be drafted and deserve to be. And I expect three, if not all four, will be. On average, the league drafts just over two punters each year with a median pick location of 170, near the middle of the 5th round. But there have been a few notable draft classes since 2000:
2018 – The third highest amount of draft capital used on punters with four punters drafted, three in the fifth round, and that class brought two of the league’s top punters, Michael Dickson and Logan Cooke, to the NFL.
2007 – The second highest amount of draft capital used on punters with three punters drafted including Daniel Sepulveda and Adam Podlesh in the 4th.
2004 – The best punter class of the past twenty years with BJ Sander in the 3rd, all-timer Andy Lee in the 6th, and future Eagle Donnie Jones in the 7th.
A lot of people are excited about this group of punters with more mocks taking punters than I ever remember. And this makes sense. In “Drafting a Punter Makes Analytical Sense” I showed the expected value of a punter exceeds any other position in the 5th round around pick 155. Here you get the best at their position vs. the 20th or 30th player at another position. Smart teams, especially those that need a punter, will take one here. And I expect punters to start being taken as early as 130-140 this year.
I started digging into punting analytics to see where in the draft it made sense to take a punter and what the real value of punting is. Going in, I expected two things: that the value of punting was quickly decreasing and that this year’s punt god really was special.
The decline of punting is greatly exaggerated – while 4th down aggressiveness is up, NFL teams punt on average almost 4 times per game and still 53% of the time in plus territory. What other position taken on day three of the draft will consistently impact a game by +3 or more points?
And this is a special class – it is definitely one of the best punting classes over the past twenty years and maybe the best class since 2004. Matt Araiza is so fun to watch and deserving of the punt god name. National Champion Jake Camarda will be a solid NFL punter and in any other year would be talked about much more. But as I dug into the data, Nittany Lion Jordan Stout just stands above the rest.
No other punter has his combination of distance, hangtime, and placement. Jordan also kicks and while NFL teams have long ago moved away from rostering a single punter and kicker, he adds value here, especially on kickoffs. Matt Araiza also kicks but one difference is Matt kicks left-footed which is often overlooked – it is a big deal to switch a snap and holder’s direction on field goals. Left-footed kickers are very rare in the NFL – last season there was only one.
I asked Jordan if teams are interested in his kicking leading up to the draft:
Punting has been the big thing for me, however teams still talk to me about potentially doing both, or just handling punting kickoffs and long field goals.”
And the best may be yet to come for Jordan and the rest of this class. At the NFL Combine, he was asked about the difference in the NFL ball:
Oh man, it’s so much better. The NFL ball, it’s a little bigger… all around it makes us look better”
And judging by the punts by this entire group at the Combine, NFL return teams should take note and be prepared.
And if you want, here are some long and short-field punts from 2021.
And a consolidated summary of stats above:
Credits to the following for this article:
- Jordan Stout (@JordanStout92) who was kind with his time to speak
- Puntalytics (@ThePuntRunts) who has the best punter value data out there
- BlueWhite Illustrated (on3.com) for several Stout quotes and articles