Most probably don’t know but I am a transplanted Philly guy now in Atlanta which I love. But there really isn’t a “Falcon Country”… on the eve of the season starting, the biggest sports story here is UGA crushing Clemson. It’s always college here. Even Atlanta United, their soccer team, ranked ahead of the Falcons as the top fan base in Atlanta. There is a small and passionate Falcon fan base here but they rightly (like us) expect to be disappointed.
The Atlanta Journal Constitution‘s article this week previewing the opener points to uncertainty on what to expect from both the Eagles and the Falcons. Both teams have new coaches, Sirianni and Arthur Smith. Neither coach showed anything in the preseason. But Falcons coach Smith and new defensive coordinator Dean Pees both were in Tennessee and played the Colts twice a year, so they are familiar with both Sirianni and Gannon. The AJC’s article quoted coach Smith saying:
He’s (Gannon) going to have his own stamp on that defense. They’ll play sound. They’ll be attacking that football. They’ll be really sound in the secondary. That’s a really good front that we have to play, I think both of their fronts are about as good as there are in the league.
Atlanta Journal Constitution “Atlanta Falcons Week 1 preview: Philadelphia Eagles“
In Philly, we share the same uncertainty (and excitement) for what Sirianni’s imprint will be. We know he will get the ball to players in space. We expect more running. And more pass catching by the backs. We know Gannon will have the defense swarming the ball. But we don’t really know.
If you read my win prediction modeling using team value, you know I have the Eagles as a slightly better team than the Falcons, which I had at 7.3 wins. The Eagles are currently 3.5 point underdogs and it’s hard to find any outlets picking the Eagles even with the points – as an example, 7 of 8 writes from The Athletic picked the Falcons and this repeats across other outlets. I don’t see it. Reading their reasons, they are superficial passes over the team headlines and fail to look at the analytics. They could still be right, I just hate that they so often didn’t look at what changes this year. They usually point generically to Matt Ryan as an elite QB or the Eagles only having Slay (somehow missing that we signed Nelson) or that the Eagles 2020 offense was horrible (ignoring the differences in QB, OL health, and offensive weapons) or the Eagles having an aging roster.
I dug into the data and here are what I think are the most important determinants for this game:
The Eagles DL vs. the Falcons OL
The storyline will probably be DeVonta and Pitts’ debuts, but the advantage the Eagles have against the Falcons OL should be the storyline.
The Falcons offensive line isn’t good – last year they were 23rd in the league in pass blocking and 21st in run blocking. And they have more questions on the line this year than they did last. Here’s their projected starting line:
| Position | Player | Pass Blocking Grade | Run Blocking Grade |
| LT | Jake Matthews | 84.0 | 57.5 |
| LG | Jalen Mayfield (R)* | 30.4 | 66.4 |
| C | Matt Hennessy | 28.6 | 59.9 |
| RG | Chris Lindstrom | 70.3 | 76.6 |
| RT | Kaleb McGary | 58.5 | 65.9 |
Their ability to protect Ryan could be a disaster.
LT Matthews and RG Lindstrom are the two positions the Falcons should have confidence in. Mayfield is a rookie 3rd rounder forced into the starting lineup who does not look ready, giving up 2 sacks and 6 hurries in only 123 preseason snaps. Hennessy is last year’s 3rd round selection who only played 225 snaps but is a big downgrade from one of the league’s best centers, Alex Mack, now in San Francisco. And on the right side, Kaleb McGary is a past 1st rounder they are hoping takes a big step up this year.
The Eagles were the 3rd highest graded pass rush unit in the league last year and 8th best on pass rush win rate. And they could actually be slightly better this year with Josh Sweat, who criminally only played 38% of snaps last year. Fletch regressed slightly last year but was still good and Hargrave had the 6th best pass rush win rate while being injured last year. They will be going against the weakest part of the line in the center. And while Matthews is their best linemen, the last time the Eagles and Falcons played, Matthews allowed a QB hit and 3 pressures for a 47.0 grade against BG and Barnett. Add in Sweat and the Eagles should be able to win on the ends as well.
Arthur Smith used a run-heavy offense in Tennessee with a lot of play-action and while the Falcons don’t have Derrick Henry, we should expect more play action from them to combat the Eagles strengths in rush and coverage (play-action seems to be increasing across many teams in the league because there is a distinct EPA gain on play-action). I do have some worries on the Eagles run defense but I’d much rather defend the pass well than the run.
The secondaries
The Eagles secondary as a strength?
Yes, it is a strength at least in this game.
We worry about our secondary but the Falcons have one of the worst secondaries in the league. PFF has them ranked last, I have them 31st ahead of Detroit. Even if AJ Terrell takes a bigger step up, they will still be a bad unit.
They lost their top four safeties in the offseason and replaced them with free agents Erik Harris (57.9 coverage grade) and Duron Harmon (64.4) and draft picks Jaylinn Hawkins and Richie Grant. At the corners, they have AJ Terrell, last year’s top draft pick (109 passer rating allowed last year), Fabian Moreau from Washington (73.2 passer rating), and Isaiah Oliver (130.1 passer rating). The Falcons don’t have enough good corners to cover DeVonta, Reagor, and Quez on top of Ertz and Goedert.
On the other side, the Eagles will need to contain Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage. Not sure “contain” is the right word or not – I absolutely love Ridley and he does what I care about receivers doing, scoring in the 93rd percentile in separation. He is going to get his yards against any team in the league including us. But my point is the Eagles secondary now can turn more focus to Ridley and Gannon won’t use Jim Schwartz’s “put our CBs on an island” defense.
Don’t let Kyle take the game over
Kyle Pitts worries me as a mismatch.
If you read my Tyree Jackson post here, you know I love athletic offensive mismatches. And Pitts is a mismatch created in a lab with sorcery.
Pitts barely played in the preseason but lit up camp and had the one impressive catch and run in the final preseason game. And the Falcons need Pitts – last year they ranked 26th in net explosive play rate even with 9 games of Julio (who is 98th percentile in explosive receptions). Even the Eagles in one of their worst offensive years in a long time were better, ranking 17th.
I can barely remember the Eagles being good against tight ends. Last year, the Eagles were 26th in the league against tight ends based on DVOA (this section isn’t about the Falcons defense, but when I was looking that stat up I saw that Atlanta was 23rd in the league last year against tight ends which surprised me a bit as their linebackers are very good).
Maybe we catch Atlanta at the right time in Pitts’ first game. I think handling Pitts is going to be much more on Gannon than any one Eagles defender like Eric Wilson or McLeod or Slay. The Eagles still don’t have a player that can cover top tight ends (insert dreams of drafting Kyle Hamilton next year…) and I expect a good game from Pitts. Success would be not having a repeat of last season’s lines like George Kittle for 15/183/1 or Chase Claypool for 7/110/3 who took over those games (I know Chase is a WR but his measurables and traits are those of a TE mismatch). If we allow that, the Eagles won’t win.
What could go wrong?
Hurts having a bad game, turnovers, the pass rush just not showing up, and allowing Ridley and Pitts to beat us. Atlanta can absolutely win and the differences between the teams are slight.
Despite being bullish on Hurts, his way-too-high-turnover-rate last year is a concern. But as long as Hurts limits mistakes though, the Eagles offense should benefit from having relatively better weapons, both rushing and receiving, against a below average defense. And to state it again because my worry is that high – Pitts worries me and it will be a good test of Gannon to not let a player take over the game.
I left quarterbacks off the above list which is odd as quarterbacks are always the most important part of the game. Quick comments here – Matt Ryan is better than Hurts, but he should be under pressure Sunday. When I talk about pressure, many push back that Ryan is a good QB under pressure but ALL QBs are worse under pressure. I have mentioned many times before, DVOA drops over 100 points when QBs are under pressure vs not.
Also, last year Ryan was a much different QB when he did not have Julio. This isn’t a completely fair look for 2021 as he now has Pitts to replace Julio, but it does show how important Julio was to the team and the importance to the Falcons that Pitts puts up big numbers:
There is a ton of unknown with any season, but even more this year with a new coaching staff. I had as one of my risks for the year that this new Eagles staff, all of which are in positions they never held before, makes some mistakes early. But the Eagles are better where it matters.
There will be plenty of games I pick the Eagles to lose but not this one.