Yes, the factory… I already wrote on cornerbacks and both the OL and DL, and wasn’t looking forward to analyzing and writing on the quarterbacks for several reasons. But first, yes, the Eagles do invest comparatively more than the league in QBs, using both more picks (8th in the league) and more draft capital (6th in the league). As shown below, over the past ten years the Eagles invest more than the league average in only two positions: QB and D-line.
A few things explain this. First, the Eagles have publicly stated what their positional priorities in the draft are, with Howie saying the Eagles will always invest in the trenches (although in the OL post, I show that is not actually true during his tenure) and that the Eagles want to be a quarterback factory. Second, the Eagles used so much draft capital to move up and draft Wentz that it blew a giant hole in their draft capital. The chart below shows the Eagles draft capital by year, factoring in the number of picks and the expected value of these picks.
The black dashed line above shows the average draft capital by team – above the line and a team has more capital than the average team and below the line, they have less. The Wentz trade took four draft picks and the Darby trade sent another 3rd round pick in 2018. Add in other trades and the Eagles went four of five years around the Wentz selection with significantly decreased draft capital.
Some General QB Draft Data
It is well known that drafting quarterbacks is really hard – it’s effectively a casino. More than any other position, you really have to draft them high and for the honor of using a high pick, teams have a 25% chance of getting the quarterback they are hoping for. The chart below shows the success rate of all QBs drafted since 2005 with the Y-axis showing the percentile grouping the QB is in based on their Approximate Value metric. A full third of 1st round QBs taken are busts with the rest being around average. After the 1st round, the chance of a bust is above 50% with practically no elite or above average QBs taken through the remaining rounds.
This next chart shows the same data with a different view, this time showing a boxplot of the same player value percentile by round. If you aren’t familiar with boxplots, the horizontal line in the middle of the box is the median value, the top end of the solid box is the 75th percentile, the bottom end of the solid box is the 25th percentile, and the “whiskers” (thin lines extending above and below the box) show the remaining outlier values.
In round 1, the median QB percentile drafted is just under 60, which typically includes QBs with some decent years but eventually back and forth between starter and backup. Some QBs around the 60th percentile include Andy Dalton, Sam Bradford, Mark Sanchez, Vince Young, Alex Smith, and Joe Flacco (it is freaky that so many on this list made their way through Philly, I swear I did not cherry-pick names). The quarterback names that teams are hoping for when they draft a quarterback in the first round all have percentiles above 80 – Matt Ryan (82), Aaron Rodgers (87), Russell Wilson (92), Andrew Luck (92), Deshaun Watson (98), and Mahomes (100). As shown above, these players above the 80th percentile are only 25% of QBs drafted.
Once you move to the second round, your median value for a QB is under 40 and only 25% of QBs drafted have a value percentile above the low 40s. To put some names to this list, each of these QBs are around the 40th percentile: Kevin Kolb (40), Brock Osweiler (39), and EJ Manuel (34). You get the point.
The Eagles QB Draft History
Since 2010, the Eagles have drafted six quarterbacks, with one first round pick (Wentz), one second (Hurts), a third (Foles), and then three throw-away day three picks.
This next chart shows all QBs drafted with the x-axis being by pick location and the y-axis being by player value (AV per year) and the size of the dot being the player percentile. The Eagles QB picks are the red circles and I highlighted them as most are almost impossible to see.
The Wentz era ended badly, but he grades out as a 79th percentile quarterback including his atrocious 2020 season. As shown above, there aren’t a lot of QBs higher than Wentz and given the low chance of successfully drafting a QB, the Eagles did comparatively well. In 2016, fifteen QBs were drafted with only Wentz and Dak being successful QBs (some would also put Goff in this list). The Eagles were right to take a shot on a QB and Wentz vs. Foles debates aside, the Eagles won a Super Bowl.
My issue is with the Eagles using so many lower picks on quarterbacks. When looking at the number of picks after the first round or number of day 3 picks, the Eagles are near the top in the league. With such a low hit rate in the later rounds, these are wasted picks – Kafka, Barkley, and Thorson are all picks that would have been better used elsewhere.
Howie Dealing QBs
While this series is more about analyzing the Eagles positional draft strategy in particular, you can’t talk about QBs without looking at the trades. The Eagles have been active in dealing QBs and I believe this partly contributes to Howie’s obsession with drafting QBs.
- In 2012, the Eagles dealt Kevin Kolb, a career 9-12 starter, to Arizona for Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and a 2nd round pick that turned into Vinny Curry.
- In 2015, in the one non-Howie led Eagles year, traded Foles, a 2nd, and a 4th to the Rams for Sam Bradford and a 5th.
- Also in 2015, the Eagles traded prior 4th-rounder Matt Barkley to Arizona for a 7th which became LB Joe Walker, a one-year player for the Eagles.
- And in 2016 after Teddy Bridgewater’s injury left the Vikings without a QB, the Eagles traded Sam Bradford to Minnesota for a 2017 first (used to take Derek Barnett) and a 2018 4th (Josh Sweat).
The Eagles “won” the balance of these trades, mostly because of the silly returns they got for Kolb and Bradford (but the Eagles also paid a lot to get Bradford). Like I wrote in the offensive line draft analysis, I wonder if some of this history affects Howie’s strategy, thinking they can continually draft QBs and either have them work out or deal them for an outsized return. But a strategy based on other teams being dumb (Arizona with Kolb) or desperate and dumb (Minnesota with Bradford) is not a valid strategy. Add in that drafting Hurts behind Wentz may have affected Wentz (which we will never know and at the end of the day, is more an indictment of Wentz that he couldn’t handle it in my opinion) and the Eagles pride in themselves being a “quarterback factory” is really misguided.
Looking Forward to 2022
While I hate the Eagles draft strategy around QBs, you need a top-end QB. Looking forward, it is no secret that the Eagles are giving the 2021 season to Hurts but if he does not succeed, they will use their built-up draft capital to acquire another QB (either in the draft or via trade).
In the prior articles in this series I listed where the Eagles need to use their top picks moving forward, with cornerback being an absolute need in 2022. If the Eagles instead have to pivot and use these picks on a QB, it will blow another hole in their draft capital similar to the middle of this past decade when they took Wentz.
I was against taking a QB high this year (still am), but it is rare to be in the top 10 in the draft and teams need to use that opportunity to take a QB. Look at the Falcons, I think it was a mistake to not take Ryan’s replacement this year with them being at 4 which you never know if you will be back at even if you aren’t a good team. If Hurts doesn’t work out with the worst case of the Eagles being “good enough” to not have a high pick, it will take another large draft capital investment when they could have taken Fields.
Previous posts in the analyzing the Eagles draft philosophy series:
“The Trenches” Part 2 – Offensive Line