I covered the defensive line in the last post here, which the Eagles invest more in than the majority of the league and have also drafted very well with their top picks. On the offensive line, the story is very different as the Eagles have actually under-invested compared to the league, have not drafted well with their top picks, but have gotten very lucky later in the draft (which I believe has created an unrealistic expectation amongst many in the fan base — more on that later).
Below is a recap of their draft investment by position area which shows the number of picks and the amount of draft capital (weighting higher picks more) that the Eagles have used on different position groups and where they rank against the league:
Eagles draft history on the O-line
The Eagles are below the league average in use of picks (14.3% vs. 16.4%) and draft capital (15.3% vs. 17.0%) spent on the offensive line, ranking 26th in the league in both. In the 2010–2021 period, the Eagles used fourteen picks on the OL, five in the first three rounds, but with more draft misses. And three of these fourteen picks were in the past two drafts, with no offensive linemen taken at all in 2017, 2015, or 2014. The Eagles generally draft tackles and sign guards, with half of the past decade’s picks being used on tackles and only two non-day three guard picks. Multi-year interior starters like Brandon Brooks, Wisniewski, and Evan Mathis (all second or third round picks) came via free agency.
As opposed to the defensive line where seven top picks over the past decade yielded Cox, Graham, Barnett, Curry, Bennie Logan, and this year’s Milton Williams, prior to this draft the Eagles four OL picks in the first three rounds only yielded Lane Johnson and Seumalo as starters. The fireman is one of the Eagles biggest draft misses in the Howie era and then there is Dillard… I personally have hope in Dillard, but he is a question mark that has under-performed without a clear path to playing time this season.
Another difference from the defensive line is how good (or lucky) the Eagles have been in the later rounds. Kelce is not only one of the best centers over the past decade, but between 2005–2020 the Eagles found the 9th best draft value vs. expected across the entire league from over 4,000 draft selections (measured as actual player value vs. what is expected from that draft position). Add in Vaitai in the 5th round who has had an up and down career but played a critical role in the 2017 season, Mailata in the 7th who appears to be their future LT, Dennis Kelly in the 5th who went on to have some good seasons after the Eagles, Jack Driscoll last year in the 4th who played very well in his rookie season, and UDFA Nate Herbig who graded out as the 11th best guard over 79% of snaps last season and should, at worst, be a solid backup moving forward.
I mentioned earlier that the Eagles success (luck) with late round OL picks like Kelce and the presence of Jeff Stoutland leads to an unrealistic expectation that the Eagles can just take later round linemen and it will work out. This is a fan view, not a Howie view — while I showed the Eagles have under-invested in the OL by not using many picks on the line, they have not relied on late round picks as a draft strategy as they do with cornerback. The Eagles have used high picks, but just haven’t hit on them. Kelce is such a rare find and to assume it can be easily repeated is ignoring history and assuming the Eagles have some cheat code on drafting linemen. They don’t. Below shows the round-by-round success rate of IOL and tackles — after the third round, both have around a 30% chance of being even an average NFL player, with above average picks having below a 20% chance and elite players being almost non-existent.
With Kelce, Lane, and the addition of Brandon Brooks (free agency) and Jason Peters (trade), the Eagles line has consistently been a top-10 line in both pass protection and run blocking. Having such a dominant line with locked-in starters gave the Eagles the opportunity to prioritize other positions in the draft.
The criticism here is that the Eagles did not draft soon enough for OL replacements as the aging of the line, the consistent injuries the past several years, and the lack of depth has become obvious recently. Yes, the Eagles have had some bad luck with injuries, but when it happens year after year, it isn’t variance, it’s reality. I cringe when I hear “we have one of the best lines if it stays healthy”… The line requires more investment.
The 2021 draft and looking forward to 2022
I gave my post-draft thoughts on what value this year’s picks could be expected to bring here, but love the Landon Dickerson pick. There is his injury risk, but I will go on record that I think it was a smart pick by the Eagles as he has the potential to be an elite center post-Kelce. The Eagles need to prepare for the post Brooks / Lane era though. Looking forward with their current roster, the Eagles not only don’t have a line comparable to what they have been used to, but they don’t have five starters on the roster today:
It is not easy to predict what their future line will look like as there are several options. If Dillard shows promise, does Mailata eventually switch to RT? Does Dickerson settle in at C or G? Can either Herbig or Driscoll show they are starters? And the Eagles will clearly be active in trades and free agency, especially next year when the cap situation is better. But projecting based on what we know today, Dickerson, probably Mailata, and maybe Seumalo are the only ones that are likely part of the future starting line. Driscoll and Herbig we hope can be starters, but most likely are depth pieces and clearly not yet replacements for Brooks or Lane. Le’Raven Clark was just signed as a swing tackle. The rest on the above depth chart probably don’t even survive this year’s roster cuts.
To put numbers to it, the top five offensive lines in the league (CLE, GB, TB, LAR, NE) combine for between 45–57 Approximate Value (AV) per season across the five positions, averaging 9–11 AV per lineman (if you want to understand AV better, I have a deeper description of it here). The Eagles starting lineup for 2021 should be very good and in the 42–45 AV range if you project to a full season and assume Mailata takes another step up. Looking past Kelce, Brooks, and Johnson, assuming some (but not massive) improvement, and projecting Landon as an above average center, the OL would only be in the 30–40 AV range. Maybe Herbig and Driscoll could surprise, but one is a 4th round pick and the other went undrafted where elevating to an above average starter doesn’t happen often.
Projecting AV is just illustrative and, more than any other position group, OL is more the sum than its individual parts. But the above is a realistic scenario that highlights decreased strength on the right side of the line. The future line just isn’t good enough.
The Eagles won’t let this happen though. In the upcoming drafts, expect one or more high picks to be used on the line. A high pick on a tackle is very likely unless Dillard shows his potential and Mailata moves to the right side. The Eagles don’t generally draft guards high but I would not be surprised to see this change with another day two pick.
Previous posts in the analyzing the Eagles draft philosophy series: