First a disclaimer — this is not betting advice and I never bet on sports (or bet or gamble on anything actually). I have had way too much statistics in my life to go against lines set using large populations of people making bets.
We Eagles fans have lacked a top WR for so long that it seems impossible to dream big, even for such a talented prospect as DeVonta. But he’s going to crush expectations. I’ll make the case here looking at recent history.
The current O/U for DeVonta’s rookie receiving yards vary some, but are in the 750–800 yard range. PointsBet has him at O/U 750.5 yards on the lower end and the highest I have seen is BettingSuperBowl.com at 800 yards. Either of these would put him above any Eagles WR over the past two seasons and back the leaders around our Super Bowl era. The last WRs near or above 750 yards in a season include:
- 2018 — Alshon 843 yards, Agholor 736 yards
- 2017 — Alshon 789, Agholor 768
The 3 year stretch from 2017–2019 did see higher receiving stats but they were for TE Ertz who saw the majority of targets and ended with 824, 1163, and 916 receiving yards through those seasons.
What we can learn from recent drafts
I previously wrote about why I am really optimistic on the Eagles draft class and compared DeVonta to other top 10 WRs picked. Below are the WRs picked in the top 10 between 2010–2020 excluding the two misses (John Ross and Kevin White as I am assuming DeVonta is not going to be an out-and-out miss).
Mike Williams did not play much his rookie year due to some injuries (herniated disc, knee) and Tavon Austin is more of a RB/WR combo, with nearly as many rushing attempts in his career as targets. But the average of these nine top 10 WRs is 764 yards in their rookie year. Excluding Williams and Austin who barely played, the average is 908 yards, easily beating DeVonta’s expectations. And taking a 16 game projection for each averages to over 1,000 yards receiving (I excluded Tavon’s silly 2,229 16 G projection). DeVonta will clearly start and play every game if healthy.
What could go against DeVonta?
Playing time – Given his talent, really the only thing that really would limit his output is playing time due to injuries. He’s never missed a game at Alabama.
Eagles spreading the ball around – DeVonta will clearly be WR1 on the Eagles. And each of the above receivers had other high target receivers — Julio had Roddy White (1296 yards), Amari Cooper had Michael Crabtree (922 yards), Mike Evans had Vincent Jackson (1002 yards), Sammy Watkins had Robert Woods (699 yards), Blackmon had Cecil Shorts (979 yards), and AJ Green had Jerome Simpson (725 yards).
Poor QB play – Yes, this could impact him as Hurts is entering his first season as starter. But the majority of the receivers above didn’t have great QBs – Corey Davis had Mariota, Watkins had Kyle Orton, Mike Evans had Josh McCown, AJ Green had Andy Dalton, and Blackmon had the dual threat of Chad Henne and Blaine Gabbert. I’ll take Hurts here.
Increased focus on the run – Yes, Sirianni has made clear they will be more balanced. But no matter what it is a passing league and if the Eagles are not a great team in 2021, they’ll be playing from behind a lot.
What is going to help DeVonta?
Improved OL play – It would be hard to imagine the OL being more injured than last year. Lane and Brooks should be back. And the depth is going to be better with Driscoll and Herbig each with another year of experience, Dillard back, and the addition of Landon.
Improved offensive scheme – Last year, the scheme didn’t use our players to their strengths. Sirianni has made clear this will be different with more focus on getting the ball in receivers hands early. This is huge for DeVonta – as Ben Fennel tweeted, DeVonta led all of college football in YAC by a huge amount:
Increased targets to WRs – Ertz was the top target in the passing game and still expected to not be on the Eagles in 2021. Additionally, Hurts targeted WRs slightly more than Wentz did with the same receiving corps (54% vs 52%). DeVonta will not be lacking in targets.
I’m all in on DeVonta this year and think he is going to exceed our high expectations. Not only because he is that good but because history tells us he will.
Over.