In part 2 of the Eagles off-season series, I build on the Eagles off-season roster strategy to take a look at the salary cap, the looming extensions of our core, and who I'm keeping and letting walk. Read more
A look at the Eagles roster entering the 2026 off-season. It's still one of the league's best rosters but there is increasing risk than recent years. And the 2025 draft may be looked back at as the cause. Read more
The Eagles will need to once again figure out CB2 for the 2026 season. Here's a look at the draft and the corners I would take (and the ones I'd pass on). Read more
With Howie being a positional value adherent, I didn't think LB was an option pre-draft. And I was wrong. But when you look at how the draft unfolded, Jihaad Campbell made all the sense in the world. Read more
Grade teams' approaches to the draft and roster-building, not the picks... and here I give the 3 teams whose draft approach I really didn't like. Read more
It's time for the 2025 punter mock draft. And this year, there's a clear top guy, Alabama's James Burnip. Who needs a punter and who gets him? Read more
As we are on the eve of the 2025 draft, my approach to the Eagles top pick including my 12 targets, who I'd move up for, hope falls, take at 32, or look for trading back. Read more
Often misunderstood, usually hated, the concept of positional value is very real. Some data to show what it is, how to think about it, and what it could mean for the draft. Read more
This is part three of my off-season mock series where – after setting my off-season priorities and taking care of extensions and our free agents – I’ll give my free agency targets ahead of the draft.
It’s tough laying out a free agency plan in January as many of the players we want may re-sign and never hit free agency. But, we will take a shot and set our priorities and options.
As the prior articles laid out, we have a difficult off-season with more critical roster spots to fill than in recent years. We’ve made some progress – freeing up some cap space, locking in our core (Jalen Carter, Jordan Davis, and Nolan Smith), and bringing back Jaelan Phillips – but there are still major holes we need to fill ahead of the draft.
Here’s an updated rank order of positional priorities after these moves, with CB, TE, and OL depth the most important ones:
CB2 – Still a need as the answer isn’t on the roster.
TE – With both Dallas and Calcaterra hitting free agency, we have zero TEs under contract.
OL – We have to prepare for Lane Johnson to retire after the 2026 season and I do not plan to extend Tyler Steen – we have the upside guys from last draft but we don’t have definite solutions yet.
WR – After letting Dotson go, the depth chart is AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, Darius Cooper, and Johnny Wilson coming back from an undisclosed knee/ankle injury that cost him all of 2025.
EDGE – Previously an urgent need with only Nolan and Jalyx under contract for next season, re-signing Jaelan Phillips now returns EDGE to a longer-term need where we can be more deliberate
With not bringing back Reed Blankenship (the most unpopular move from my last article…) we’ve created a need there. But in a weak safety class, I’m assuming he’s going to go for more than we are willing to pay. Epps filled in well and we’ll look to bring him back cheaply and possibly add another in the draft.
As a reminder, below is where the Eagles salary cap stands after this off-season’s moves and planned extensions next year.
2026
2027
2028
Cap space
$15.9M
$82.0M
$57.2M
Here’s how to think about the cap:
2026 is lean but has room for a few moves – With how Howie structures multi-year deals with only ~12% of the deal hitting in year one and ~17% in year two, theoretically you could sign around $100M of total contract value this off-season (we won’t) but the issue is the remaining guaranteed amount (~37%) lands in 2028 which consumes the majority of 2028’s cap – we have to keep an eye on both 2026 and 2028.
Some of the 2027 cap space will need to roll over into 2028 – 2028 cap space of $57M looks like a lot but really isn’t considering it’s three years out. Prepare for the 2027 off-season to be one where Howie intentionally doesn’t spend everything and rolls cap over..
Cap must be preserved in case it’s needed for OT or WR – We have to replace an all-time RT and WR1 in Lane Johnson and AJ Brown over the next 1-2 years and while we will try in the draft, you can’t be guaranteed to hit there… just as we needed to trade for AJ (and extend him), we have to preserve cap in case one or both of those positions need the same.
On to free agency…
Free agency targets
Tight End
Target: Charlie Kolar, 3-year $14M ($9M guaranteed)
It’s a good TE class and TE is actually a comparatively good position to get in free agency for three reasons:
TEs have one of the lower hit rates in the draft (the all-time 2025 TE class aside which looks to have five good TEs and still angers me we didn’t take anybody…)
TEs have historically developed slower than other positions and often provide more value on their second contracts
And, they are very cheap in free agency with the second lowest AAV, above only RB. Even the top free agents are cheap, rarely going above $10-11M AAV in recent years.
Top 2026 TE free agents:
Player
Age
Rec/Yds
Blocking Grade
Est. Contract AAV
Kyle Pitts
25
82/870
39.4
$14-15M
Travis Kelce
36
73/839
56.1
$10-11M
David Njoku
29
33/293
45.9
$10-11M
Dallas Goedert
31
60/591
49.6
$11-13M
Isaiah Likely
26
25/275
61.7
$9-10M
Chigoziem Okonkwo
26
54/558
28.9
$12-13M
Tyler Higbee
33
20/190
59.2
$4-5M
Noah Fant
28
33/283
60.5
$3-4M
Austin Hooper
31
20/258
48.9
$4-5M
Cade Otton
26
52/478
51.7
$7-8M
Charlie Kolar
26
10/142
76.7
$3-4M
In a good and deep 2026 TE free agency class, I’m making a name buried on most free agent rankings my top priority – Baltimore’s Charlie Kolar.
Kolar’s numbers won’t pop out because he was buried behind Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely, who combined for over 90 targets. But when Kolar was targeted he:
Had a 1.42 Y/RR, better than Goedert
Had over 13 Y/Rec career average, second best in the NFL this season and a number Goedert hit only once in his career
Caught everything, with only two drops in his four-year career
Was the best blocking TE in this free agent class
He’s an underrated TE target that is highly athletic, high character, and known as the smartest guy in the locker room. At only 26 years old, he’s a guy that can be in place for several years. I loved him coming out in the draft and still think he’s a really solid player that has upside with more usage, which he has not gotten in Baltimore.
Other options:
Noah Fant who will likely be on a prove-it deal after a down season
Cade Otton is a bit more expensive option but you are getting more proven production
Returning Grant Calcaterra on a near-minimum deal.
Cornerback
Like every year, there aren’t easy answers in free agency at cornerback as you have guys at or nearing the age cliff, rentals, or overpriced guys. And almost never is a CB1 available, but that’s not what we need.
Top 2026 CB free agents:
Player
Age
Passer Rating Allowed
Est. Contract AAV
Jamel Dean
29
46.9
$17-19M
Riq Woolen
26
81.5
$15-17M
Cor’Dale Flott
24
71.0
$16-18M
Greg Newsome II
26
107.2
$15-17M
Jaylen Watson
27
67.5
$13-15M
Cam Taylor-Britt
26
134.5
$12-15M
Eric Stokes
27
77.4
$17-19M
Alontae Taylor
27
105.6
$14-16M
I expect CB free agent prices to exceed current projections, so you will see higher numbers above than Spotrac and others have right now. Dallas’s 4-year, $92M ($23M AAV) DaRon Bland extension may be an overpay, but it isn’t going to help keep the open market prices down. Last off-season, there were four $18M AAV CBs and another six that were $10M or more, reversing a long trend of CB prices trailing the overall market – I expect the top guys to push the top end from last year.
Jamel Dean may have had his best season despite his age and will likely lead this class. Eric Stokes I don’t expect him to hit the market. Alontae Taylor has been transitioning to slot in 2025 and has traits, but was the fourth-lowest graded CB in the league when he played outside full-time for much of 2024. Flott has some appeal with his age but will likely be overpriced.
Here are my top two targets – sign one, not both, but listing two because I expect a good portion of the free agent CB class to re-sign and not actually hit free agency.
This would be my biggest move for the 2026 off-season. And I’m still not super comfortable with it.
Jaylen Watson has some risk for sure – he dealt with a groin injury in late 2025, is 27 years old and, yes, was the CB that DeVonta beat for the Dagger, but making him movable after two years lessens the risk. And he is still good – he was 10th in the league in passer rating allowed this past season.
The Eagles have cap room in 2026-27. We remain in a Super Bowl window and it’s a worthwhile free agent pay while we look to invest again in the draft. Do I expect the Eagles to actually do this? No. But he would be a dependable, stabilizing corner option for two years while a longer-term option developed and one I would go get if his price was in this range.
Jacksonville’s Montaric Brown is an under-the-radar name, but he’s been reliable (playing over 1,500 snaps the past two seasons) and played well this year, allowing a 73.5 passer rating. He is aggressive in coverage, tackles well, and is known to be a good teammate and hard worker.
Signing Montaric and pairing with somebody in the draft or another 1-year signing is probably the smarter financial move than Jaylen Watson. The risk on Montaric is if he can sustain his 2025 and are you buying him high?
Jacksonville, a contender, needs secondary help and I’d normally say Montaric Brown at only 26 years old would never hit free agency, but the Jags are in a tough cap situation, $15M over the cap in 2026 and only $36M free in 2027, both near the bottom of the league. With 17 free agents including 6 starters (Devin Lloyd, Travis Etienne, Dyami Brown, Andrew Wingard, Greg Newsome II, Matt Dickerson, and Brown), they just aren’t going to be able to sign all of them.
Other options:
Cor’Dale Flott or Alontae Taylor if they stay in the $13-14M range but neither probably will
Attempt to trade for Juju Brents as a low-cost lottery ticket – Miami is $33M over the cap in 2026, starting a rebuild, and Brents has not stayed healthy as he enters his final year. This couldn’t be more than a day 3 pick or player swap given he’s only played 6 games the last two seasons, but the Eagles did have interest pre-draft in Brents.
Returning Adoree Jackson on a 1-year deal
Offensive Line
Target: Brady Christensen, 1-year $2M
Our plan for free agency? No big moves but it would be nice to get some depth at guard / center, especially with Jurgens’ struggles this year. Matt Pryor and Brett Toth are both UFAs, each could come back on a min deal, but both can be (and should be) upgraded. But the real answer here is probably the draft, especially at IOL which looks to be a good class.
Brady Christensen is a guy I wanted last year – he can play all five spots on the line including both RG, C, and both OT spots over the past two seasons and has a better blocking efficiency than all Eagles, except Lane and Mailata. His 3.3% pressure rate allowed is half Steen’s, Pryor’s, and Toth’s (all over 6% in 2025). Brady did tear his Achilles in October which may mean he isn’t ready for the start of the season.
Other options:
Matt Hennessy, who was briefly with the Eagles prior to the 2024 season and can play center and guard. In 2025, he allowed a 4.5% pressure rate.
Wide Receiver
Target: Jalen Nailor, 1-year $2M
In an attempt to have all of the NFL’s Jalens/Jaylens/Jaelans, I’m bringing in Jalen “Speedy” Nailor whose has had a couple of solid years in Minnesota.
I may be being optimistic on his cost as it only takes one team to value a guy higher, but looking at comps from last off-season (Elijah Moore, Nick Westbrook, Van Jefferson), he should be in the $2-4M range, tops.
Nailor fits exactly the type that the Eagles have brought in during the AJ / DeVonta era – low cost, slot-heavy, willing to do the dirty work and can fill in if AJ or DeVonta are out. Here are Howie’s WR signings the past four seasons:
Year
Player
FA Contract
Prior Performance
2025
Terrace Marshall
$1.2M
Averaged 255 yards / yr in CAR, injured in 2024
2024
Parris Campbell
$1.3M
Coming off down year with 20/104 yds
2023
Olamide Zaccheaus
$1.2M
40/533 in prior season in ATL
2022
Zach Pascal
$1.5M
Averaged 484 yds / yr in ATL over 4 seasons
Nailor profiles similar to Dotson, but is a bit bigger, more explosive, and better after the catch. His 1.4 YAC over expected is the 11th best in the league (better than any Eagle) and he’s 16th in the league in average air yards per target (again, better than any Eagle), showing he’s much more than a quick-hitting slot. He blocks well and has played selfless this season. Nailor may not be a major upgrade, but he’s an upgrade.
Other options:
Tyquan Thornton likely returns to KC and his market is probably in the $7-8M AAV range which isn’t affordable with an expensive CB, but if you want a deep threat and a guy that could hedge if AJ leaves next off-season, he’s the guy to get. 64% of his targets were over 20 yards (top in the league) with a silly 37 yard ADOT (third highest in the league)
Greg Dortch is another small, shifty, slot WR but brings a lot of kick / punt return experience (173 career returns). His market would likely be around $2M.
Long Snapper
Target: Andrew DePaola, 1-year $1.5M
Bonus position!
I can’t believe I’m including a long snapper in my off-season mock but the Eagles have been a mess, with a lot of Jake Elliott’s issues being Cal Adomitis and Charley Hughlett.
Go get Andrew DePaola, one of the steadiest and best long snappers with a 76.5 special teams grade, 5th best in the NFL. All the long snappers sign for a year and $1.3-1.4M.
Will he leave Minnesota for Philly? I have no idea, but he grew up in Maryland and went to Rutgers. I’m firing up the jet, turning on the charm, and getting him to come back to Philly.
What 2027 comp picks could look like
Always important to Howie, the comp picks…
Your own free agents signed prior to free agency don’t count in the comp pick formula, so the big move bringing back Jaelan Phillips doesn’t hurt us.
If the free agents land where their contracts are projected, the Eagles could net a 2027 5th and two 7th round comp picks (with Jaylen Watkins cancelling out Reed, Kolar cancelling out Nakobe, and Brady and Nailor not counting) – nowhere near last year’s haul, but a better net than any of the prior several years.
Round
FAs Lost
FAs Signed
R3
R4
Reed Blankenship
Jaylen Watkins
R5
Dallas Goedert
R6
Nakobe Dean
Charlie Kolar
R7
Jahan Dotson Azeez Ojulari
Where the roster and salary cap stand after these moves
We’ve addressed most of the priority needs ahead of the draft and can confidently say each should be an upgrade except Goedert, which we aren’t going to upgrade without spending much more or hitting in the draft:
From 2026…
…to 2027
CB2
Adoree Jackson Kelee Ringo
Jaylen Watson
TE
Dallas Goedert Grant Calcaterra
Charlie Kolar Grant Calcaterra
OL
Matt Pryor Brett Toth
Brady Christensen
WR
Jahan Dotson
Jalen Nailor
EDGE still has a depth need as we only have Nolan Smith, Jalyx Hunt, and Jaelan Phillips under contract for 2026, but we will fill in with either draft picks or minimum deal guys like Uche or Ojulari.
As for the cap, you can see the 2026 cap is nearly depleted, even with fairly limited and modest moves. While there’s still $7.2M left, we can’t take it to zero as we need to keep some room for any in-season moves.
2026
2027
2028
Free agent signings
$8.7M
$9.5M
$12.9M
Cap space
$7.2M
$72.5M
$44.3M
We’ve been responsible on long-term spend and even the bigger moves this off-season (Jaelan Phillips and Jaylen Watson) are really two-year deals that are affordable ahead of the big extensions.
More importantly, the off-season positional needs are back to 1-2 year needs, not urgent 2026 holes, as we got a TE and CB2 in free agency and an EDGE with the Phillips re-signing. Next, in the draft we can be smart and invest for future, not immediate, needs.
As we get closer to free agency and some of these guys undoubtedly re-sign with their current teams, I will update the free agency targets.
Related
Eagles 2026 Offseason Series: The salary cap and our free agents
We still have one of the best rosters in the league thanks to Howie’s roster building approach
But there’s more risk in 2026-27 than in previous years with near-term holes at difficult to fill positions including CB and EDGE, no TEs under contract, and a need at WR and OL (including a Lane replacement) over the next couple of years
The coming extensions willl require some tough decisions and limit free agency spend
The Eagles current salary cap outlook
The 2025 salary cap is $279.2M, up 9.3% from 2024, and while we don’t know the forward cap numbers yet, we can estimate them – for this I’m using a little over 8% annual growth.
2026
2027
2028
Estimated salary cap
$302M
$328M
$357M
Eagles effective cap space
$20.8M
$103.8M
$110.8M
League rank
18th
18th
29th
# of players under contract
50
37
29
Note that these numbers are different from OverTheCap’s because I am using the average growth of the cap which gives a a higher estimated cap
While the Eagles are near middle of the league in 2026-27, they actually have less flexibility than most teams around them because Howie’s minimum-salary-option-bonus-void-year contract structures don’t have salary that can be converted into signing bonuses – he effectively “pre-restructures” all of his deals.
This is why Howie’s prudence during the 2025 off-season, avoiding any big signings and making some tough choices on players like Isaiah Rodgers, Milton Williams, Josh Sweat, and Mehki Becton, was so critical to accumulating cap space ahead of the extensions that starting to be upon us.
The key point to know on the cap is that we are in decent shape in 2026 and 2027, but 2028 is the problem as we will see once we start extending guys.
Freeing up future cap space
There are usually few cap-moving moves the Eagles can make, which is a testament to how forward-looking Howie is on contracts, rarely getting himself into trouble. But there are a couple we will make:
2026 Moves
Release CB Michael Carter II Howie absorbed the Jets contract structure and Carter’s cap hit goes from $1.2M in 2025 to $10.25M in each of the next two seasons. With $9.7M of that in salary, he could be restructured but there’s no way we are paying $10M a year for a guy who’s played 41 snaps.
Release SAF Sydney Brown and DT Byron Young Both still on their rookie deals, the savings are minimal over a replacement-level player, but neither has a spot on this team moving forward – this is more about them not being guys I want. Combined, it’s $3M of cap savings in 2026.
Looking ahead to 2027 and 2028 moves
Howie always structures contracts with a logical “out” year and it’s important to look ahead to which players are likely to leave when. There will be more, but a few big ones to clean up the cap estimates here:
Lane Johnson: retire after the 2026 season with a post 6/1 designation In my book, Lane is the greatest Eagle to ever play, probably only challenged by Reggie White, and will play as long as he wants to. But he only has guaranteed money in 2026 and previously pointed to “two more years”, meaning the 2025 and 2026 seasons. All of the core guys retirements require a post 6/1 retirement and Lane’s brings $8.2M of savings in 2027 and $27.5M in 2028.
Zack Baun: release after the 2026 season with a post 6/1 designation This is the easy one. He has no guaranteed money after 2026 and will save $5.6M in 2027 and $11.7M in 2028 with a post 6/1 release after next season. If he is playing at an insane level, he’d cost $17M to keep for 2027, but with Jihaad Campbell here, Baun will be leaving.
Saquon Barkley: release after the 2027 season with a post 6/1 designation Saquon’s deal is a bit more interesting than Baun’s, without a clear out year as there is some guaranteed money in 2027, making a 2027 post 6/1 release possible but without large savings due to the large dead cap remaining ($4.2M of 2027 savings). We keep him through the 2027 season and then he’s released, saving $11.1M of cap in 2028.
AJ Brown: release after the 2027 season with a post 6/1 designation OR trade after the 2026 season AJ is the interesting one as his deal is set up to give an out after the 2026 or 2027 seasons and it all comes down to how well he is playing. Effectively he will “cost” the Eagles $11M in 2027 to keep him (or more accurately, they only save $11M by releasing him after the 2026 season) – even with AJ beginning to degrade, he’s going to still be worth the $11M opportunity cost to the Eagles. But a trade could be interesting next season, saving $11M in 2027 and $12M in 2028, plus whatever return you get.
Next year in my off-season mock, I am definitely listening to offers on AJ which again reinforces why we need to start looking for another WR option.
Updated cap space outlook
Below is an updated cap outlook after the above moves (note that I’ve adjusted for the additional empty roster spots to get an effective cap number, which is why the new cap space isn’t just the previous cap space plus the new savings)
2026
2027
2028
Updated cap space
$29.7M
$124.8M
$148.0M
League rank
11th
10th
20th
Take the league rank with a grain of salt as this obviously isn’t reflecting other teams’ moves which will free space up – I put the ranks in primarily to show that the Eagles are still in a tight spot in 2028, even after the above moves.
Extensions, re-signings, and who I let walk
Now what we have known has been coming for a while… trying to pay the guys from Howie’s amazing draft run. I’ll do my best to project what these contracts will be and once you know that, the cap hits are fairly straightforward as Howie has a predictable structure to his deals.
Remember that contract values go up every year with the salary cap, so player comps need to be adjusted for 5-10% per year inflation, depending on the position.
Player
FA Year
Projection
Comps
Jaelan Phillips
2026
3 yr / $90M with $59M gtd
Nik Bonnito – 4 yr / $106M ($26.5M AAV) Danielle Hunter – 1 yr / $35M
Nakobe Dean
2026
2 yr / $14M with $5M gtd
Divine Deablo – 2 yr / $14M ($7M AAV) Devin Bush – 1 yr $3.25M
Reed Blankenship
2026
3 yr / $35M with $23M gtd
Justin Reid – 3 yr / $31.5M ($10.5M AAV) Talanoa Hufanga – 3 yr / $39M ($13M AAV)
Dallas Goedert
2026
3 yr / $40M with $25M gtd
Mark Andrews – 3 yr / $39.3M ($13.1M AAV) TJ Hockenson – 4 yr / $66M ($16.5M AAV)
Jordan Davis
2027
3 yr / $75M with $49M gtd
Alim McNeil – 4 yr / $97M ($24.5M AAV)
Jalen Carter
2027
5th year option plus a 3 yr / $126M
Chris Jones – 5 yr / $158M ($31.75M AAV)
Nolan Smith
2027
5th year option plus a 3 yr $90M
Brian Burns – 5 yr / $141M ($28.2M AAV)
Tyler Steen
2027
3 yr / $51M
Sam Cosmi – 4 yr / $74M ($18.5M AAV) Kevin Dotson – 3 yr / $48M ($16M AAV)
Quinyon Mitchell
2028
5th yr option plus a 3 yr / $105M
Sauce Gardner – 4 yr / $120M ($30M AAV) Derek Stingley – 3 yr / $90M ($30M AAV)
Cooper DeJean
2028
3 yr / $75M with $49M gtd
Jalen Pitre – 3 yr / $39M ($13M AAV) Marlon Humphrey – 5 yr / $97.5M ($19.5M AAV)
Jalyx Hunt
2028
3 yr / $65M with $43M gtd
Harold Landry – 3 yr / $43.5M ($14.5M AAV) Jonathan Greenard – 4 yr / $76M ($19M AAV)
Who are you re-signing…?
This is the fun of the off-season as there’s not a right answer, it depends on how you want to build your roster. Here’s what I’m doing with an eye on maintaining some cap flexibility for free agency.
2026 off-season moves:
Execute Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith’s 5th year options and extend each – Absolute no brainers. Both options can be picked up this off-season and must be decided upon by early May.
Extend Jordan Davis – I assume this is a no-brainer but I know there have been mixed opinions on Davis. He brings so much more to this defense than his stats show.
Re-sign Jaelan Phillips – I’d normally never do this and if we drafted an EDGE last year, I would let him walk and collect the R3 comp pick, but Howie put the Eagles in a position where you almost have to sign him. Given this is effectively a 2-year deal, we have room to pay him and plan to replace with a draft pick, which I will do this year.
Let Reed Blankenship go – It’s a weak safety free agent class this year which will likely push his market up. I hate to break up the Exciting Mics podcast, but we can’t pay everybody.
Let Nakobe go – His deal is so hard to project… without the injury, he’s a 3-year, $30-35M LB but could see his market limited to a 1-year deal in a good LB free agency class. If he was a 1-yr / $5-7M “prove it” deal I’d bring him back, above that he isn’t affordable and the Eagles are prepared without him with Baun, Jihaad, JTJ, and Smael.
Let Dallas Goedert go – This one hurts a bit as he’s earned whatever deal he gets, but a $12-14M multi-year AAV deal is just not affordable.
Re-sign Braden Mann – He’s quietly the Eagles best punter in franchise history, you bring him back.
Of the smaller free agents, many could come back on vet min deals but I’m letting Grant Calcaterra, Jahan Dotson, Adoree Jackson, and Matt Pryor go and re-signing Fred Johnson (probably $3M AAV for 1-2 years) and Sam Howell (probably another near vet min deal)
One non-cap related move is I am working Kelee Ringo out at SAF in the off-season to see if he can make the move there.
Planned 2027 off-season moves:
Execute Quinyon Mitchell’s 5th year option and extend – You just aren’t letting Quinyon, who is playing like the best corner in the league
Plan to replace Tyler Steen – He’s good, not great, and likely will be a guy that is paid more than he’s worth. We have time to replace him and will look to do so in the draft.
Moro Ojomo TBD – It’s early to project his free agency market, but if he keeps progressing, he’s going to get a big deal. He’s a guy I want to keep, and will try to, but it shows the issue the Eagles have moving forward.
A few other interesting players to keep an eye on – both Cam Jurgens and Jake Elliott have no guaranteed money left in 2027 and depending on Cam’s health and Jake’s level of play, both could be upgraded
Restructure (extend) Jalen Hurts’ contract – This is the one lever to pull and with Hurts’ guaranteed money done after 2026, his contract will get re-done in either 2026 or 2027. Years and guarantee will be added in exchange for freeing upp near-term cap space – while it’s early to project this, I’m assuming $10-15M of cap space is free in 2027-28.
Updated salary cap outlook after these moves
After the above moves, the cap is still in pretty good shape.
2026
2027
2028
Extension / re-signings cap hits
$13.8M
$52.8M
$105.8M
Updated cap space
$15.9M
$82.0M
$57.2M
What would you do differently?
A rough guide to converting Howie contracts to cap hits is to use the following (this uses a 3-year contract because that’s typically the deals that are done):
3-Yr Contract
Year 1 Cap Hit
Year 2 Cap Hit
Year 3 Cap Hit
Year 4 Cap Hit (Void Yrs)
% of total contract that hits the cap
12%
17%
23%
48%
I put this here in case you want to play with your own moves. As an example, if you think I’m wrong for letting Goedert or Nakobe or Reed go, you can see how re-signing them affects the cap:
2026
2027
2028
2029
Dallas Goedert
$4.8M
$6.8M
$9.2M
$19.2M
Reed Blankenship
$4.2M
$6.0M
$8.1M
$15.4M
Nakobe Dean
$2.5M
$3.6M
$4.8M
$10.1M
Could you sign some or all of them? Sure. Or do you pass on Jaelan Phillips (which is defensible) and bring these guys back? Maybe Goedert does another 1-year, $10M deal and maybe teams hesitate on a multi-year deal for Nakobe in a very strong LB free agency class, allowing him to return on a 1-year $5-7M deal.
But if you signed all of them along with the moves I made above, you run out of 2026 cap space and cut 2028’s space in half before you’ve signed any other free agents you may want (and there are definitely still needs out there).
But the most important point on maintaining some added cap flexibility moving forward is the Eagles have a WR and RT to replace over the next 1-2 years and you cannot just assume you get an AJ Brown or Lane Johnson replacement in the draft.
The way Howie’s contracts are set up, you can’t release guys ahead of their planned out year without taking a cap hit which means if you already spent the entire cap moving forward, miss in the draft and need a guy, our hands are tied.
Both WR and OT are positional priorities for me in the draft, but just like Howie had to go to the trade market to get AJ, we have to leave the option to do so again. And that’s why I am making some of the tough decisions above.
Coming soon is part 3 in the off-season mock series where I’ll look at free agency and the guys I’m targeting ahead of the draft.
Related
Eagles 2026 Offseason Series: Roster outlook
I’ve done a full off-season mock the past few years and this year, I’m going to split it up in sections, starting here with a look at the roster and 2026 off-season strategy.
Summary: Howie has built the league’s best roster by being smart on the cap, focusing on premium positions, and drafting ahead of needs. A look into the 2026 roster strategy and priorities shows there are more risks than previous years and the 2025 draft may be the cause of it.
Howie’s roster-building approach has delivered a perennial contender
The past two years, as Eagles fans we’ve been comfortable (and correct) saying the Eagles have the best roster in the NFL, thanks to Howie’s roster-building approach that he’s hit on year after year:
1. Value premium positions and the trenches
“There are certain positions that affect the game more than others.”
Howie understands surplus value and why you focus on the most expensive, and hardest to replace, positions. He also famously maniaclly focuses on the trenches, knowing they make both units better.
2. Draft ahead of – not for – needs
“If you wait until you need something, it’s probably too late.”
I’ve written multiple times that if you want to predict Howie’s top picks, look at what the needs are 1-2 years out, not immediate needs. Immediate needs will be filled in free agency and trades, usually with veterans.
3. Stay out of the top-end of free agency
“In free agency, you’re generally paying for what a player has already done, not what he’s going to do.”
Howie never signs the marquee, older and top-of-market free agents. He rarely even signs guys in the top 10 of free agents.
4. Contract structures as a competitive advantage
“Dollars today are more expensive than dollars tomorrow.”
The cap is real but not every dollar is the same. Using void years to push player costs into the future increases flexibility and as long as Howie doesn’t sign multiple “mistake” contracts, he limits risk. This is why he generally avoids older players.
5. Take advantage of league inefficiencies
“If you’re just following what everyone else is doing, you’re probably not going to gain an edge.”
Howie will upgrade any position, including all the way down to the practice squad. He’ll look to gain value in trades and doesn’t de-value future picks like a lot of the league. He’ll take advantage of value in the draft. And his signing of Saquon – right when the league was shifting back towards the run – was getting ahead of league trends.
Howie’s multi-year heater in the draft has built the league’s best roster
Howie has been on a heater the past several years. Over the past 5 drafts, he not only accumulated much more draft capital than league average, but he’s barely missed, especially on premium picks.
But more importantly, what I’d say characterized the last several years of drafts goes back to the above principles:
Howie masterfully drafted ahead of needs at premium positions, bringing key replacements in 1-2 years ahead of the actual need
2022 – Jurgens brought in well ahead of Kelce’s retirement, Jordan Davis with Hargrave leaving the following year
2023 – doubling up on the DL with Carter and Nolan knowing Fletch, Barnett, and BG were all leaving over the next 2 years
2024 – doubling up on Quinyon and Coop ahead of Maddox, Rodgers, and JBJ being gone the following year
And, Howie took advantage of value in the draft, drafting strong positions and players that somehow fell to them – this is the annual “make Micah Parsons shake his head in disgust” as Jalen Carter, Nolan Smith, Quinyon Mitchell, and Cooper Dejean all fell to Howie.
When you draft ahead of needs at premium positions and do it well, you set your roster up for the future. Period. The Eagles have had holes in the off-season the past few years, every team does, but they have been pretty minor holes and positions Howie could generally fill easily in free agency without forcing a move.
But there’s growing roster risks and the 2025 draft may have some regrets
This is not meant to sound like a hot take as Philly still has a roster that most teams would gladly trade places with, but the 2025 draft may have been rare roster-building malpractice by Howie.
I’ve written on this before, there’s a pretty high correlation between winning and the prior 2-3 years of draft value. It’s how the Rams re-built so quickly as nobody has drafted better than them and, on the other end, it’s part of the reason the Vikings and Lions have underperformed.
There are more roster risks in 2026-27 than recent years which is going to make this off-season more critical, and difficult, to execute on.
Failing to invest 1-2 years ahead of needs
Last year, the top long-term needs were EDGE, DT, CB, and TE and these are what Howie would have typically gone after in the draft. He only addressed one of those in the draft, taking DT Ty Robinson in the 4th which was a reach for an older, late breakout player.
CB2 – Went from a long-term need to an immediate need when Howie let Isaiah go. In 2026, they likely will have 3 open CB spots with Adoree aging, Kelee out of chances, and Michael Carter being a guaranteed cap casualty.
EDGE – Only two signed players in 2026, Nolan and Jalyx. They traded a 3rd to bring in Jaelen Phillips but are going to have a really difficult time re-signing him.
TE – No signed players in 2026.
Not taking advantage of value that fell
What’s most frustrating is when you look at the long-term positions of need above, every single one of them had value fall to an Eagles pick, requiring no reaching. This is where Howie usually “sinks the putt” but he didn’t.
CB was a top heavy class but had multiple guys fall to, or near, Eagles picks in R1 and R2 (Will Johnson, Benjamin Morrison, Trey Amos)
TE was such a historically strong class that it is almost criminal to not walk away with one asguys were available in R2-5 (Fannin, Gunnar Helm, Oronde Gadsden)
EDGE was very deep on day 2 and again, there were guys available (Josaiah Stewart, Bradyn Swinson)
Just think how different this team would be, not only in 2025 but more importantly over the next few years, if the 2025 draft was:
R1: CB Will Johnson He fell probably due to some injury and long speed concerns but was a screaming R1 value and consensus graded him above Jihaad. He’s playing very well for Arizona who took him at pick 47.
R2: TE Harold Fannin Already up to 731 yards and 6 TDs on the season, he’s having every bit as good of a season as Tyler Warren and Colston Loveland who went over 50 picks ahead of Fannin.
R3: EDGE Josaiah Stewart (required 6 spot trade-up) With a 13.2% pass rush win rate, he’s 2nd in this class behind only Abdul Carter. He’s got a run defense grade equal to Nolan Smith’s and better than Hunt or Phillips. And – important for Philly EDGEs -he has a better coverage grade in over 70 drops into coverage than any Eagles EDGE.
The crazy thing is the above draft would have been such a Howie draft… investing ahead of needs with each pick, taking advantage of outsized value with Will Johnson falling, and drafting the positional strength of the draft.
Go back to the roster gaps entering 2026 above – Philly would have Quinyon, Will Johnson, and Cooper DeJean at CB… Nolan Smith, Jalyx Hunt, and Josaiah Stewart at EDGE… and we would actually have a long-term TE.
My worry now is if Howie will feel forced into some uncharacteristic moves. Jaelen Phillips’ market is between $26-35M based on recent comps which the Eagles should not pay, but will Howie feel pressured to overpay because of the need? Will he trade more future draft capital to fill a hole at CB or EDGE? Or will we make due with 1-year rentals at such key positions?
* I’m not trying to cherrypick after the fact – Will was my CB1 and had him going pick 12 and, if you follow me, you know Fannin and Josaiah were both draft crushes of mine that I mocked often to the Eagles.
2026 Off-Season Mock: My roster priorities
Extend our core stars
Jalen Carter, Nolen Smith, and Jordan Davis are all priorities this off-season and next year, it’s Quinyon, Cooper DeJean, and probably Jalyx Hunt.
Howie has planned for this and there’s room to extend every one of them, but this means there are going to be some tough decisions on well-liked players.
Get back to focusing on premium positions in the draft
The Eagles holes at CB and EDGE are ones that you either can’t fill in free agency or you can and it’s really, really expensive. Given so much of the future cap will be consumed with the current core, Howie needs to return to focusing on the most expensive positions in this draft (which conveniently align well with our needs).
My priority positions
In order, my positional priorities to get this off-season in free agency and the draft are:
CB2 – It’s the one true hole on the team. CB2 isn’t on the team today and good CBs are incredibly hard to get outside the draft
TE – Again, a position of immediate need with no TEs rostered in 2026
EDGE – This remains a priority just because the Eagles only have two signed EDGEs
OL – Despite being a “trenches” team, it’s been 4 years since we invested any serious draft capital on the OL (Jurgens in 2022). Of course an eventual Lane replacement is on the table, but investing on the interior is needed
WR – Jahan will be gone and AJ is here probably another 1-2 years, it’s time invest here
Next, I’ll spend time on the salary cap, who I’m extending and releasing, and off-season targets in free agency and the draft.
Related
Looking for the Eagles next CB2 in the 2026 draft
It’s always interesting to look at Eagles’ consensus mocks this time of year to see what people want. A month ago, CB was leading, but now after a couple of quiet games from Adoree Jackson, CB has been replaced by TE Kenyon Sadiq, EDGEs Cashius Howell or TJ Parker, and WR Denzel Boston topping lists.
But CB2 is still probably the biggest need for the Eagles, especially when we are talking about where you are likely to get good players.
If you’ve followed me for a while, you know I say that of all positions, CB is the one where you really MUST get in the draft. Good, young CBs under control for multiple years almost never hit free agency and if you can trade for them, the price is usually two 1sts (Jalen Ramsey and Sauce Gardner are the two examples).
How will Howie likely be thinking about CB2 after this season?
There will be 2-3 open CB spots – Adoree will be 31 and a free agent, Michael Carter II will be released due to his cap number, who knows on Jakorian, and I’m pretty sure Kelee’s chances at a starting job are done
Howie won’t go into the draft with a need that forces his pick, so expect a veteran rental signing no matter what
While I hope for a CB pick, he won’t force a pick and will likely also be looking for OL, EDGE, and probably WR.
Free agent options for CB2
Howie will absolutely bring in somebody, but I’d fall over if it wasn’t another 1-year rental – they just aren’t going to have a lot of cap space to get a long-term solution the options are limited (as always).
The ones that won’t actually hit free agency:
Eric Stokes – 27 years old and a very solid CB but LV will surely re-sign him
The good but expensive options:
Jamel Dean – $13-15M AAV
Jaylen Watson – $15-17M AAV
The decent but likely overpriced options:
Riq Woolen – $14-16M AAV
Cam Taylor-Britt – $13-15M AAV
Alontae Taylor – $10-12M AAV
Nahshon Wright – $10-12M AAV
Cordale Flott – $9-11M AAV
The older guy options:
Chidobe Awuzie – 31 years old
Rasul Douglas – 31
Ahkello Witherspoon – 31
A rental could be Howie’s solution (again) for 2026 if the draft doesn’t work out.
Looking to the draft for CB2
Couple of things that are always good to keep in mind on CBs:
CB is one of the most heavily drafted positions, with an average of 4 being taken in R1 and 9 by the end of R2
Hit rates are low, a lot of CBs drafted high don’t work out
Only 5-7 above average CBs are drafted every year which has been pretty consistent
They get drafted quickly and only a half dozen good ones (starter quality) come out each year. And it’s hard to get them in free agency. So, you draft them early.
I spent the past few weeks watching CB prospects and the Eagles will have some options come April. Here’s where I have guys, who I like for Philly, and who I don’t. Like most years, if you want a corner, look for one early… but there are two that should definitely be available when the Eagles pick.
The corners we need some luck to get
Jermod McCoy, Tennessee
Consensus EDP: 16 My headline: Pray he drops some, if he does you 100% trade up
I dream of teams trying to throw on a secondary of Quinyon, Coop, Mukuba, Jermod, and whoever is the other safety. He’s my CB1 in this class.
He’s clearly a top 10-15 pick but could he fall and be in play with a trade up? His situation reminds me somewhat of Will Johnson last year. Both had some questions on their testing speed (but I don’t see it on film), both had injury concerns coming into the draft (Jermod missed all of the 2024 season with an ACL), both had absolutely everything you want in a high CB pick. Will inexplicably fell to 47.
His 2024 was really good. A rare corner that is equally good in man or zone, he is special when the ball is in the air and his past receiver background probably helps that. He has the hips and aggressive mentality that CBs need.
I don’t expect Jermod to fall to the mid-20s , but what if Mansoor (maybe the safer pick) goes CB1 and a CB-needy team passes on Jermod for somebody like Avieon Terrell, similar to last year with Jahdae Barron going first?
If Jermod goes third, the Eagles most likely could get him. Over the past 5 drafts, CB3 has averaged getting taken at pick 25, going picks 47 (Will), 30 (Nate Wiggins), 17 (Christian Gonzalez), 21 (Trent McDuffie), and 22 (Caleb Farley).
There are usually only 1-2 guys I’d trade up in R1 for and Jermod is one of them this year. Using their first 3rd (from the Jets), the Eagles could move up to around 16-18.. using their compensatory pick at 98 would get them up to around 20. You gladly send one of those picks for him.
Mansoor Delane, LSU
Consensus Pick: 15 My headline: We don’t have to worry, we can watch him go way ahead of us…
Yes, of course you take him, but I don’t think we will have to worry about that – Mansoor is the safest CB in this class and will go too high for us. I wouldn’t be surprised if he went in the top 10-12.
I do have him CB2, but it’s splitting hairs between him and Jermod. Mansoor has put up gaudy numbers: a 26.7 passer rating allowed in 2025, he gets his hands on the ball 29% of targets, and didn’t allow over 41 yards in a game this season. He also has the hips and fluidity you want to see.
Complaints will be picky, but he doesn’t have the physicality that Jermod does. He’s great in man coverage and very good, but not great, in zone. He does give up a good amount of yards after the catch (averaging over 7 YAC per reception which is a lot) which is probably my biggest issue.
He’s honestly the safer pick but I don’t think he has the ceiling that Jermod does.
The most realistic options for us
We need some luck to get Jermod or Mansoor, even if Howie is willing to trade up. But here are two guys I really like and should be available at our first two picks.
Colton Hood, Tennessee
Consensus Pick: 30 My headline:Probably the top CB that will realistically be available when the Eagles pick
Hood is this year’s Trey Amos. A lot of similarities between them – similar sizes, aggressive, and have all the traits you want. But both will show you their good and bad early on as both need some development.
Really like him in press and he closes well. He’s around the receiver all the time and tackles well. Last year the concern was tackling but he not only cleaned that up, but turned it into a strength. Fluid.
He at times doesn’t get his head turned around consistently enough (UGA touchdown he gave up right after the deep sideline throw where he probably should have been called for DPI). Also, at times, he won’t look immediate in zone choices (Zachariah Branch TD).
Julian Neal, Arkansas
Consensus Pick: 86 My headline: He gets the absolute most out of his skillset
Consensus is too low on Neal right now.
It will be interesting to see him test – he’s thought to be a low to mid 4.5s guy but I see better that on film. And he’s got fluidity a supposed 6’2″ CB usually doesn’t have.
He presses all game, is physical, and the best run defender and tackling CB in this class. He moves and changes direction better than you’d expect at his size. He’s smart in coverage and pursues. Julian gets the absolute most out of his talent.
He gives me some Bradberry vibes and I mean that as a compliment as Bradberry was a very good CB for 5-6 years. Neal will be the CB that outperforms his draft location this year and may be my favorite CB after Jermod and Mansoor.
In high school, he was an All City honoree at both receiver and basketball point guard and was initially recruited as a receiver. One knock – he’s a redshirt senior and will be 23 years old at the draft with only 105 career targets, almost all coming in 2024-25.
I couldn’t be higher on Julian Neal as a day 2 pick, especially around his current EDP late day 2. If the Eagles can’t grab Jermod in R1, Julian Neal is really good value.
Guys I’m passing on
There are some good corners in this list, this isn’t a knock on them. But I ignored any slot-only CBs (and there are several in this class due to size) and of course took out any guys I felt didn’t have the movement needed.
Avieon Terrell, Clemson
Consensus Pick: 21 My headline: He’s a good player, but not what the Eagles need
He has the pedigree (AJ Terrell’s brother) and there’s a lot to like – he mirrors well, has good closing speed, and is good jumping routes. My issue is I think he will be a slot and not what the Eagles need.
He’s listed at 5’11” and 180lbs, I really doubt he is that tall. Against bigger receivers, he will look outmatched (LSU game). My issue in the slot is I don’t see the tackling and run defense others talk about – he often needs help bringing guys down and will take some bad angles. With Cooper DeJean, I don’t see how he’d fit on the Eagles. But he’ll be a good pick for somebody.
Brandon Cisse, South Carolina
Consensus Pick: 32 My headline:Lacks short-area quickness
He’s pretty consistently getting R1 grades and I just don’t see it at all – his speed is adequate but his short area burst is limited (Vanderbilt goal line TD allowed). Plays the run a lot but his tackling is inconsistent.
Chris Johnson, San Diego St
Consensus Pick: 52 My headline:Lacks short-area quickness
Of this group, he may be the one I reconsider on re-watch – he has good hip fluidity, feasts jumping routes, and gets his hands on the ball a lot. But I have concerns on his speed and ability to close quickly. Several of his big, highlight-worthy plays I think go the other way against an NFL QB arm, which he rarely faced.
Keith Abney, Arizona St
Consensus Pick: 55 My headline:I don’t see his skills translating to the NFL
Like Cisse, he’s getting early round grades that I don’t agree with. He lacks closing speed when he needs it – he gives up enough separation that will be a problem in the NFL but got away with it at ASU. He’s decent in zone but I don’t like him in man coverage.
AJ Harris, Penn St
Consensus Pick: 70 My headline:Day 2 pick in 2024, UDFA in 2025
Unless there is some explanation like a hidden injury, after a good 2024, his 2025 almost makes him undraftable. I like him so much more when he has a man to stay with – in zone, he plays too far off and lacks the speed to close. Rarely got his hands on the ball.
Will Lee III, Texas A&M
Consensus Pick: 96 My headline:Lacks NFL traits
Will Lee III, Texas A&M Will be 23 at the draft, doesn’t have the speed for the NFL and when he is required to plant and come back, it takes him steps to recover that gives up separation.
Davison Igbinosun, Ohio State
Consensus Pick: 109 My headline:A slightly better Kelee Ringo
This will give Philly fans PTSD, but he reminds me a lot of Kelee. He’s fast but has the lack of fluidity that taller corners often will have – he just doesn’t have that smooth CB look and will get beat on double moves. He’s going to test well and a lot of people will like him for that.
Daylen Everette, Georgia
Consensus Pick: 115 My headline:Easy speed but concerning zone instincts
Will just turn 22 after the draft and played 4 years at Georgia. He’s got speed that shows up with ease. He’s known as a zone corner but my concern is he loses track of his man or ball and too often seems to settle in the wrong spot in zone – given 4 years of experience at Georgia, this is concerning given it is supposedly his strength.
Kelley Jones, Mississippi St
Consensus Pick: 118 My headline: One of the higher variance picks (if he declares)…
There’s a lot to like. He’s fast, aggressive, and has some good film – against Texas, Trey Wingo has his way with the Miss St defense, except for Jones who held him catchless. He’s s going to test well and has great size.
And there are things to be cautious on. Despite his speed, he is most comfortable dropping, keeping the play in front of him, and then carrying a receiver downfield. There aren’t a ton of reps I found where he was stressed on double-moves or shiftier receivers, but you will see some in the Missouri game (one of his worst games).
He’s a high variance pick that probably requires a specific usage. He could remind me of KC’s Jaylen Watson or Maxwell Hairston, and I think either outcome would be unsurprising. He’s a guy I dropped on second watch for this reason.
Related
Yes, Jihaad Campbell is a great player, but he may have also been the best value pick
Well, Howie continues to surprise us… And I was wrong.
I didn’t expect a LB to be taken high, instead thinking DT followed by IOL and CB were the likeliest picks at 32. And if I was in Howie’s seat, I couldn’t have resisted taking Will Johnson (as long as the medicals checked out).
The simplest answers for the Jihaad Campbell pick are the obvious ones. First, Howie and team had him graded much higher than anybody else on the board. And second, Vic Fangio clearly is raising the importance of LB inside the organization.
But I wanted to dive in a bit deeper, especially in context of positional value and historical draft hit rates. After looking at how the draft played out, taking Jihaad here was not only likely the best player on the board, but Howie may have made the right pick from a positional value perspective.
How the 2025 draft shifted positional value
I wrote in my positional value article on how the financial side of draft picks (especially high picks) matters. Because of the rookie wage scale, picks are paid a set amount based on their draft slot and position doesn’t matter. Draft QB Cam Ward 1st overall? The contract is $12.2M AAV. Draft a punter at 1 overall instead? Still $12.2M AAV.
Maximizing the value of high picks matters which is why the most heavily drafted positions (WR, EDGE, DT, OT) are typically also the most expensive positions to get in free agency.
I included the chart below which uses player contract values mapped to historical expected player value in the draft at the Eagles first two picks, picks 32 and 64. Based on draft averages, the average DT drafted at 32 would cost $16.5M to replace in free agency, the average CB $14.9M, and average LB $12.7M.
Position
R1-32
R2-64
Off-QB
$31.2M
$12.6M
Off-WR
$20.9M
$13.5M
Def-ED
$19.1M
$11.8M
Off-T
$16.7M
$11.0M
Def-IDL
$16.5M
$11.0M
Def-CB
$14.9M
$10.0M
Off-IOL
$14.3M
$10.2M
Off-RB
$12.8M
$9.9M
Def-LB
$12.7M
$9.4M
Def-SAF
$12.1M
$8.3M
Off-TE
$11.7M
$8.2M
Howie, a long-time adherent to positional value, had guys they had interest in at much more expensive positions like EDGE Donovan Ezeiruaku, OL Jonah Savaiinaea, and DT TJ Sanders all still on the board at 32. And Howie has said and shown that he will lean towards the higher value position if two players are graded near each other.
But the thing with positional value is it’s not absolute. It’s all based on historical trends – what positions cost, what value player typically comes out at that part of the draft, and how many players at a position get taken.
Beyond the Eagles just loving Jihaad the player, the key thing that was different this year was how heavily both DT and EDGE were drafted ahead of the Eagles pick. Howie’s favored trench positions were highly drafted ahead of 32:
Historically, just over 3 DTs are taken by pick 32, this year 6 had been taken.
Even in a weak OL class, 7 went by pick 32 vs. just over 5 historically.
How positional value looked at pick 32 this year
Here’s a look at how LB, DT, and EDGE all looked at 32, including the player value historically drafted and corresponding positional value.
Linebacker
With no LBs off the board (I am listing Jalon Walker as an EDGE as that’s what ATL drafted him as), Howie was drafting LB1. And teams drafting LB1, on average around pick 19, have historically gotten a very good player:
Averaged a 72nd percentile value (better than 72% of other players) with 4 of 10 having value percentiles above 80 with only 2 below 60
Equated to a $14.3M AAV NFL contract value
You will see some very good names below.
Year
Pick #
Player
Team
Value Percentile
2015
R1-25
Shaq Thompson
CAR
67
2016
R1-20
Darron Lee
NYJ
63
2017
R1-21
Jarrad Davis
DET
58
2018
R1-8
Roquan Smith
CHI
99
2019
R1-5
Devin White
TAM
94
2020
R1-8
Isaiah Simmons
ARI
57
2021
R1-19
Jamin Davis
WAS
57
2022
R1-22
Quay Walker
GNB
82
2023
R1-18
Jack Campbell
DET
89
2024
R2-45
Edgerrin Cooper
GNB
61
Defensive Tackle
Howie would have been picking DT7 and I while I loved TJ Sanders (and would have had on my short list of options there), nobody had him ranked anywhere near Jihaad.
What have teams typically gotten with DT7? Over the last ten drafts, DT7 has been taken around pick 72, which again shows how massive this draft was for DT.
Averaged 38th percentile player value with only one (Derrick Nnadi) above 70th percentile and a lot of “busts”
Equated to a $10M contract value
This isn’t a compelling list of draft picks… and while this was seen as a very strong DT class, it’s dangerous to force a pick and think you are smarter than history and the rest of the league in the draft.
Year
Pick #
Player
Team
Value Percentile
2015
R3-90
Carl Davis
BAL
26
2016
R2-43
Austin Johnson
TEN
54
2017
R3-88
Eddie Vanderdoes
LVR
22
2018
R3-75
Derrick Nnadi
KAN
72
2019
R1-29
L.J. Collier
SEA
41
2020
R3-73
DaVon Hamilton
JAX
52
2021
R4-117
Bobby Brown
LAR
51
2022
R4-108
Perrion Winfrey
CLE
4
2023
R3-64
Zacch Pickens
CHI
26
2024
R2-48
Maason Smith
JAX
34
EDGE
I really didn’t think EDGE was a likely high pick as I thought this was a very average EDGE class after Abdul Carter. But it was a highly mocked pick and the Eagles did show some interest in guys like Ezeiruaku. What has EDGE5 delivered in the draft?
Averaged a 43 percentile pro, with really only two good picks at EDGE5
Equates to a $10M contract value
EDGE has one of the higher 1st round miss rates and, again, the list below isn’t a compelling group of picks with a wide range. For every Brian Burns or George Karlaftis, there are 2-3 Payton Turners or Myles Murphys.
Year
Pick #
Player
Team
Value Percentile
2015
R1-23
Shane Ray
DEN
56
2016
R2-33
Kevin Dodd
TEN
7
2017
R1-26
Takkarist McKinley
ATL
38
2018
R2-48
Uchenna Nwosu
LAC
56
2019
R1-16
Brian Burns
CAR
89
2020
R2-54
A.J. Epenesa
BUF
49
2021
R1-28
Payton Turner
NOR
11
2022
R1-30
George Karlaftis III
KAN
88
2023
R1-28
Myles Murphy
CIN
17
2024
R2-56
Marshawn Kneeland
DAL
18
None of the above numbers on average player valuations or projected contract values are perfect – obviously the player matters. And who knows, Jihaad could have a mediocre career while passed-over guys Donovan Ezeiruaku or Will Johnson could be all-pros. But the things to remember are:
When position groups get heavily drafted like DL this year, relative value in other positions rises
Positional value ultimately depends on the value of the player you are getting
Howie and his staff bet on Jihaad Campbell as a player which was not only a good bet on the player on the field, but probably was an equal or better positional value bet this year at pick 32.
Related
It’s too early to grade 2025 draft picks, but not teams’ approaches…
I don’t like the immediate “Grading every draft pick” articles for a couple of reasons. First, the draft is hard and nobody knows how these players will pan out. Second, it always feels like criticizing the kids when we should be nothing but extremely happy for them on the biggest night of their lives so far.
But my favorite thing to think about, get into conversations on with all of you and others, and write about is the philosophy and approach to team-building – the draft, free agency, salary cap, and what GMs value and prioritize.
We won’t know if these players will pan out, but we can evaluate the organizational philosophy that is on display with these picks. So let’s go – here are three teams that I take issues with:
Dallas: A fragile organizational philosophy
R1-12: OG Tyler Booker
I didn’t like this pick which most agree with, but putting aside whether you like Booker or not or if he turns into a good player or not, this pick is maybe the best example of the fragile team-building approach of Jerry Jones.
What do I mean by this?
The Cowboys have been a good (regular season) team for most of the past decade, really only having a bad year in 2020 when Dak went down and an 8-8 year in 2019. But the two things to know about Dallas are: they have drafted well and they don’t spend on free agents.
Jerry had a run of very good drafts…
Since 2016, Dallas has been one of the best drafting teams (4th best in the league in value over expected). Below shows their actual draft value (blue bars with the lighter blue being playing time adjusted value) vs. expected draft value based on their draft capital (orange line)
In this stretch, they had some really impactful picks at important positions, including getting s starting QB in R4, two top-of-their-position guys in Micah and CeeDee, and several starters later in the draft including guys like DaRon Bland, Osa Odighizuwa, and Tony Pollard.
And Jerry doesn’t spend in free agency…
Jerry Jones is last in the league in free agency spending over any period you look at – 3 year, 5 year, 10 year. In the past 5-years, Dallas has averaged spending a TOTAL of $25.1M AAV per year (Howie is at $44.9M as a comparison).
Since 2020, Jerry has signed ZERO Tier 1 free agents (5% or above of the cap) and only TWO Tier 2 free agents (2.5-5.0% of the cap). The only other GM close is Joe Hortiz from the Chargers who has only been in role since last year.
Why is this important?
As I wrote in my positional value article, maximizing the cap value of your picks does matter. They needed OL but they also needed a WR, DL, and CB which are all way more valuable positions. Based on historical value, you are getting around $16M of value for a guard at pick 12, way below the $26M for an EDGE, $22M for a DT, and $28M for a WR.
Jerry should have signed his OG in free agency and could have signed Patrick Mekari, Mekhi Becton, Kevin Zeitler, or James Daniels for $8-12M per year, way less than the value of pick 12. But Jerry doesn’t spend in free agency.
And when you don’t spend, you HAVE to continue to draft well because there’s no other way to keep the roster afloat. And they did for years. But no team drafts perfectly all the time.
Atlanta: Bad teams do dumb things
R1-26: EDGE James Pearce
Where to start with the Falcons… year after year they shred draft capital and set cap space on fire…
Of the four 1st rounds picks he has made, two were on a RB and TE, both at pick 8. Since Fontenot was hired in 2021, ATL is 4th worst in the league on contract value gained in the draft, under-performing expected value by 10% and it’s because they drafted non-premium positions high.
And when they have picked, they have the highest draft miss rate over this period at 19% and the 5th lowest draft value vs. expected…
Last year he signed Kirk Cousins to a 4-year, $180M free agent contract with $100M guaranteed… and then drafted a 24-year old QB in the 1st round… and then decided to keep Cousins this year and pay his roster bonus…
And this year… Jalon Walker was a great pick but then they trade their 2nd and next year’s 1st to the Rams to move back into the 1st round to take James Pearce. No matter how you value it, it’s an overpay:
ATL gave up 2.5 to 3x the draft capital value depending on which value chart you like
ATL lost $3.8M of expected contract value (OTC trade value calculator)
Fontenot explained “We look at the trade charts and all of that stuff but at some point you have to look at okay who is the player, what are we really getting and it is it worth it?”
Yes, it is about the player, but the draft is also about raising your odds and Fontenot makes moves that continue to show that he believes he is smarter than the league.
Even for a good player, this is a massive overpay. But beyond that, there were significant off-field concerns on Pearce concerning his work ethic and desire to play… maybe those are true, maybe they aren’t, but in a deep DL class, the Falcons traded up in a weaker draft class to take on more risk at a position with the highest bust rate in the draft..
Minnesota: Keeping it afloat with free agency
R1-24: OL Donovan Jackson
It may sound crazy that I’m listing Minnesota here as the Vikings went 14-3 record in 2024 and have talent on their roster, but they have some looming issues:
The oldest roster in the league
One of the worst future cap positions, $34M over the cap in 2026 and bottom 3 in the league in both 2026 and 2027
The lowest amount of draft capital in the 2025 draft with only 4 picks (picks 24, 97, 139, and 187)
They have the worst draft performance in the NFL since Kwesi took the job in 2022, a staggering 44% below expected draft value. If you scroll through their draft picks over his tenure, it’s a lot of red with really only two hits – Jordan Addison and Christian Darrisaw out of their 34 picks.
Kwesi is the opposite of Jerry Jones as the league’s 4th top free agency spender, averaging a massive $77M AAV per year to bring in key pieces like Jonathan Greenard ($19M AAV), Byron Murphy ($18M), Will Fries ($17M). He’s signed more Tier 1 free agents (7) than any other team in the year averaging over $28M AAV on each.
I actually really like Donovan Jackson as a player but Kwesi cannot keep depending on free agency and needs to draft well. And with only 4 picks this year, Kwesi should have traded down and picked up extra capital.
Again, they have a ton of talent and a lot comes down to what they have with JJ McCarthy, but Kwesi has had four consecutive really poor drafts and you just cannot sustain that way.
Related
Where will James Burnip go in the 2025 punter mock draft?
This year’s punter class is clearly headlined by Alabama’s James Burnip who deserves attention. In 52 punts this season, he averaged:
45.4 yards per punt with a 43.7 net average
0.9 yards per return, a mark not seen since pin-deep specialist Adam Korsak
Unlike Korsak who had no hangtime, Burnip sported a 4.29 second average, one of the best times in recent years
24 punts pinned inside the 20 yardline and 25 fair caught
And he’s 6’6″, 236 lbs…
Here’s a sample and you won’t see a better punt.
He’s P1. But who needs a punter and where could he go? Here are the top teams, which GMs have shown they will draft specialists, and where this year’s punters go:
Buffalo Bills: Bank on it…
R5-169: James Burnip, Alabama
The Bills are an annual Super Bowl contender and moved on from Sam Martin after the 2024 season. In an attempt to upgrade, they signed two this off-season: Brad Robbins and Jake Camarda. Neither are proven and for a team that just can’t get over the KC Chiefs hump, they need to leave no weaknesses.
They have five prime punter picks at 169, 170, 173, 177, and 206…
Their GM – Brandon Beane – one of the league’s savviest and best drafters, has twice drafted special teams players – punter Matt Araiza at pick 180 and kicker Tyler Bass at pick 188.
The first punter typically goes a round higher but after the past few years in this punter Renaissance, there just aren’t a ton of teams that need one. And the Bills jump on Burnip, an incredible value here, with one of their 5th rounders.
Denver Broncos: The dark horse…
R6-197: Luke Elzinga, Oklahoma
The Broncos lost Riley Dixon to the the league’s most punter-needy team, Tampa Bay. Dixon signed for 2 years at $3M AAV and as good as he is, Denver should have matched it.
Instead they brought in 31-year old journeyman Matt Haack, a guy who hasn’t had a good punting season in years. The thin air will help him, but the Broncos would be smart to upgrade.
The issue? GM George Paton hasn’t shown he will draft specialists. Also, they don’t have a 5th – after their pick at 122, they don’t pick again until 191, 197, and 208 and would definitely have to acquire a higher pick to get Burnip. The Broncos stay put and have their pick of Florida’s Jeremy Crawshaw or Oklahoma’s Luke Elzinga.
Crawshaw may be the better all-around punter, but I have them taking Elzinga as the better fit in Denver – he has shown bad weather skills and the thin air will offset his tendency to sacrifice hangtime for distance.
Minnesota Vikings: They would if they could…
UDFA: Jeremy Crawshaw, Florida
Another Super Bowl contender (at least in their mind), they have Ryan Wright who is definitely upgradeable. GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has only been on the job since 2022 but has shown he will draft specialists, taking kicker Will Reichard at 6-203 last year.
The issue? They are a draft capital disaster with only four picks in this draft – pick 24, 97, 139, and 187…
As much as I support drafting specialists, they just can’t afford to and will likely wait for the UDFA period. And they do well, getting Jeremy Crawshaw in a lean punter class.
Steelers: The team that should have…
An extra bonus team.
The Steelers had one of the worst punter situations last year and decided to upgrade by… signing 33-year old Cameron Johnston to a 3 year, $9M free agent contract…
With picks 185 and 229, they would have good punter picks to take would should be their best punter in a long time. But, as the Steelers do, they do the exact opposite of what I think they should do.
Yes, they have bigger issues and needs, so this ultimately doesn’t matter, but good teams do smart things on the margins. And signing a mid punter to the 4th highest AAV deal in the league isn’t smart.
Enjoy the draft everybody! And make sure to have a big extra happiness when the first punter gets taken… punters are football players too.
Related
Eagles 2025 draft targets: Trade ups, lucky falls, trade downs, and who I’m passing on
This year more than maybe any other, it is so hard to just lock in on a single position, let alone player, for an Eagles mock. First, picking at 32 the possibilities are more open as positional value degrades some (but not totally). Second, Howie has done a great job letting the board fall to him the last several years and it’s paid off.
But as always, I’ll “think like Howie”:
Draft ahead of needs: The Eagles have a young, stacked roster and have fewer “screaming” future needs than they have in past year (except TE if they trade Goedert). But positions like DT, SAF, and CB are positions that they will need.
Positional value: I just wrote on this and it’s real and something Howie follows – since Howie returned in 2016, the highest a non-premium position was taken was Dallas Goedert at pick 49 in 2018 – the other 12 picks were DL, OL, CB, WR, and QB. Could they take a SAF or TE? Maybe, but I really doubt it.
Taking the value in the draft: This year’s strongest position groups look to be DL, TE, SAF, and RB. WR is good but down from recent years, CB and LB have some top-end strength, and OL is much weaker than recent years especially at OT.
Last year, I focused more on who I would take and had guys in there I knew the Eagles weren’t targeting like Nate Wiggins and Graham Barton. This year, I’ll still include some of my guys but will focus much more on the guys they have shown interest in as they always take somebody they have met with.
So here are the 12 guys I am targeting with 4 DTs, 3 EDGEs, 1 CB, 1 WR, 1 TE, 1 SAF, and 1 OL – I’m shopping where the strength of this class is.
Lucky falls
There are other guys it’s love to take but left them off given their current high EDP – Will Johnson (EDP 11), Derrick Harmon (EDP 17), and Shemar Stewart (EDP 13 and a higher boom/bust guy).
DT Walter Nolen
EDP: 25
He was my top R1 guy in December and still is. Nolen is reportedly dropping in the draft which I won’t believe until I see it as there is no way a team should be allowed to have both Jalen Carter and Walter Nolen. And he’s probably the only guy in this draft I would make a small trade-up for if he got close to their pick.
He was doubled more than almost anybody this year (64% vs. LSU, 72% vs UGA) and still produced with a 19% pass rush win rate. He has some character concerns that Howie would need to be good with but on the field, he can be dominant.
WR Emeka Egbuka
EDP: 24
The Eagles have barely shown interest in WRs and definitely not anybody projected in the top 100, so this won’t happen. And with DeVonta and AJ locked up for years, I get it. But if Emeka falls to them (and he could if teams go with Golden over him), I would take him and figure it out.
DT Kenneth Grant
EDP: 22
Another guy the Eagles haven’t shown any interest in but the single best place Philly could save future cap is Jordan Davis’ position. If Grant were to fall (which I don’t expect), he should be a guy you think hard about – he allows you to reset the cost at the interior instead of likely paying $20M AAV soon.
Picks at 32
Just going off of current EDPs, there isn’t a big list of guys I get excited about at 32, although this will surely be different on draft day. But here are two that should be there are worthy to take without dropping.
CB Trey Amos
EDP: 37
Projected a bit lower, I’ve said all along he that he’s a R1 corner. He’s got the speed, competitiveness, and gets his hands on the ball a ton. In a really flawed corner class where the top guys all have injury histories and day 2 weakens quite a bit, he may be the safest outside CB in this class and a guy I think goes higher than projection.
OL Donovan Jackson
EDP: 38
In my positional value article, I had Donovan as my “I’d put money on the pick” pick. It’s a rough year for OL but there are guys and Donovan fits everything the Eagles want – positional versatility, leadership, athleticism. And, he’s likely going to be good value in the top half of R2.
He’s most likely a guard in the NFL but showed he can play tackle and several teams see him as one. His first game at OT was against Abdul Carter and while he had some rough reps, the thing I kept thinking is “if he could just get more depth on his first step…” and Stout can likely do that.
Trade down and the 2nd round
I fully expect this to be what actually happens and it makes sense:
The strength in this draft is day 2 depth and for whatever draft sims are worth, so often I am un-inspired with the options at 32
They could get value from teams trying to trade up for one of the 2nd tier QBs
Howie has already said they have fewer than 32 1st round grades – this is true most years but with them picking 32nd, it just makes even more sense
And besides DL, the positions that the Eagles are likely to be interested in are day 2 values and not something to take higher
DT TJ Sanders
EDP: 56
A guy I have loved to the Eagles since I first watched him, I expected him to rise more pre-draft but he’s still projected late R2. But he’s a guy that should go higher and my perfect draft would be trade down for extra day 2 capital and TJ’s name being called to Philly. His 21% win rate and 11% run stop rate project right up with top guys in recent drafts and he’s still getting better.
EDGE Bradyn Swinson
EDP: 71
Besides Josaiah Stewart, he’s my favorite EDGE target for the Eagles. A month or two ago he was a late day 2, early day 3 guy but has risen pre-draft to the middle of day 2. And I expect him higher come draft day as he’s produced, has the traits you want, and fits Fangio’s scheme in an EDGE class that has a lot of guys with low college production.
EDGE Princely Umanmielen
EDP: 54
He was solidly in R1 earlier this off-season and dropped off quite a bit. As a pass rusher, he’s one of the better in this class – he has some of the best quick pressure and win rate rates in this class. But he suffers a bit setting the edge and has some off-field nonsense that needs to be understood.
SAF Xavier Watts
EDP: 53
Another guy that likely won’t happen as the Eagles haven’t shown interest in him and his testing isn’t quite what they typically look for. But instincts and play recognition make up more time on field that a few hundredths of a second on a 40. And Watts has that. He has the 2nd best EPA/target in this class behind only Mukuba (who will be a potential Eagles target) and the top deserved catch rate (measures allowed reception rate on catchable passes, adjusting for poor targets).
EDGE Donovan Ezeiruaku
EDP: 32
I have him on the list as Ezeiruaku may be the most commonly mocked R1 pick right now and I wouldn’t be surprised if he was the pick. I like him, I just don’t love him at 32 and think there are a few concerns on edge setting and level of competition.
He hasn’t gone against future pro OTs except for Membou this year (and that was only for a handful of snaps as Donovan primarily lined up on the left side) and he was mostly erased that game with 2 pressures on 29 snaps – I value film vs. future pros and he really doesn’t have it the past 2 seasons.
TE Mason Taylor
EDP: 47
The Eagles are definitely going to take a TE and this is the range where it starts making sense, either with a decent trade down or with their 2nd pick. Few TEs coming out block well but he was in pass protection 2nd most in this class (behind Gunnar), so he’s got experience. I like him here, but don’t love him here as I think there is likely better value at other positions – I’d rather have one of the DTs with Gunnar in the 3rd over Mason in the 2nd and whatever is left in the 3rd, but he would be a good pick here.
DT Alfred Collins
EDP: 57
If you notice a trend of DTs, it’s because it’s a need, an expensive position, and the draft is loaded with them. Another guy the Eagles have met with and great value with a trade down as another Davis replacement or hedge.
Some picks I’m passing on
The R1 SAFs…
They need a safety but I’m not sold on either Malaki Starks (solid, but not special) or Nick Emmanwori (traits, but was often relying on athleticism and not anticipating) and think there would be better value, and better use of draft capital, at their first pick. Safety is still a cheap and easier position to get in free agency, so if you are drafting one high they better be special and I don’t feel good declaring either of these guys as special… I’d much rather take Watts, Mukuba, or Malachi Moore later.
… and the R1 TEs
Although I would be tempted if Colston Loveland (who is TE1 by a margin in my opinion) fell to their pick, I don’t think this would be the best use of capital. It’s the worst position by positional value, has a pretty poor record for teams taking one high, and next year’s free agent class will be an all-time group to go get one if you wanted. Let another team make the mistake drafting a TE high and get one on day 2 in this really deep TE class.
Some of the top guys with baggage
The Mike Green interest has cooled from it’s once insane level amonst Eagles fans, but it’s still out there. Same with Maxwell Hairston who they actually brought in for a visit. Besides their off-field allegations, neither are R1 talents IMO.
James Pearce is a guy that is starting to show up on Eagles mocks as he has slipped and his talent on field is noticeable. But there are real questions on his work ethic and character and something the Eagles have been good to stay clear of.
Injury and/or age issues
Interest in Shavon Revel has also died off but he’s another that screams risk – traits yes, but he tore his ACL, will be 24, faced weaker competition, and gave up a ton of big plays on film.
Josh Simmons would be a great OL pick to eventually slide to OT but he tore his patella tendon (same as Nakobe) which has really bad recovery data.
Benjamin Morrison‘s recovery is concerning as there is just so little info (although the teams probably have more). He has fallen quite a bit and it will be interesting to see where he goes, but on film, I thought he was CB1 material. I would absolutely look at him if he was there on day 2 though.
The various OTs that are going to be over-drafted
In a weak position class, it is unavoidable that players are over-drafted (and the opposite in strong positional classes, which is why the Eagles would be well-served focusing on DL with their top pick).
And this is one where I differ from the Eagles as they have shown interest in a few of these guys. Josh Conerly (EDP 34) doesn’t have OT length and has concerning anchor against top pass rushers. Jonah Savaiinaea (EDP 59) doesn’t have the movement skills the Eagles typically want and another with questionable anchor against power.
They haven’t met with Aireontae Ersery (EDP 48) who I like more than the others but he probably lacks the length to stay at OT. But in a down year, a guy like Aireontae looks better.
Closing thoughts
My final thoughts on this Eagles draft:
It’s hard to keep hitting in the draft – This is from the pessimist side of me that my wife always hates… Howie has done a masterful job since 2021 hitting in the draft, particularly with his highest value top picks. But drafting is hard and the league is wrong around 40% of the time in the 1st round.
Since 2000, 51 times teams have had 3 consecutive above expectation value drafts… only 19 of those went on to a 4th consecutive year and only 8 hit 5 years in a row. Good GMs will miss and at some point Howie will too.
Know where the Eagles are – They have a great, young roster and this is expected to be a down year in the draft. Trading back will likely be a downer for many but it makes so much sense – having more picks with this roster is more important than trading future assets to move up for a favorite in this class, especially at a non-premium position (speaking to the Tyler Warren, Malaki Starks, and Nick Emmanwori believers).
Don’t overthink it – Howie has done a great job letting value fall to him which is partly him not locking into a need and partly the league passing on guys they shouldn’t have. It’s just less likely to happen this year picking 32nd. But Howie should (and will) let the value fall to him. And this is why I am so heavy on DL above as that is where the screaming value will be in this draft most likely.
Go Birds and good luck to us all in the draft!
Related
Positional value: You may love it, you may hate it… here’s how to think about it
My last couple of contract and cap related articles got a lot of positive feedback (thank you all!) and I should probably leave well enough alone… but here I will dive into the often misunderstood, usually hated concept of “positional value”.
Full disclosure up front, I am absolutely a positional value adherent. And so are many GMs including our own Howie Roseman. But am I an absolutist? No. I thought Kyle Hamilton was worth drafting in the 1st in 2022… signing Saquon Barkley was brilliant… and I, like everybody, thought Zack Baun as the top priority this off-season.
But positional value does matter. Here’s why.
Explaining positional value
Simply, positional value doesn’t mean positions like LB, RB, or TE are unimportant, it just means that they are cheaper to replace in the open market (free agency) than premium positions.
And since the draft makes no distinction on positions – teams pay the same contract no matter if they draft a quarterback or a kicker – positional value turns into maximizing a fixed asset (draft picks) against variable costs (the cost to replace positions in free agency).
If you’re familiar with the gameshow “Supermarket Sweep”, it’s a good, rough analogy for positional value (if you aren’t familiar with the show, basically contestants have a set amount of time to race through a supermarket and grab as many items as they can fit in their carts).
If you had a minute to grab groceries, would you head for the chips and pasta or straight for the steak or diapers (or eggs…)? Of course you would first grab the steak or whatever high-priced item you desired.
Well, you may not like it, but in the draft TE, RB, and LB are the pasta and DT, EDGE, OT, and WR are the steak (QB is more like grabbing a lottery ticket with its insane potential payoff but rough odds…)
Quantifying positional value
There’s been a lot of great work done on positional and draft surplus value by others like Ben Baldwin from The Athletic and Kevin Cole from UnexpectedPoints, and I’ll use a similar approach to theirs to attempt to visualize positional value.
The below shows expected contract value (y-axis) by pick location (x-axis) in the draft across the different position groups (and a fully interactive chart with more detail and prior years is available here: https://phillycovercorner.com/draft/insightpickvalue.html)
To get this, I’ve used the average of the current top 5 contracts by position as the “top of the market” and scaled that through the draft based on historical player value by position. For example, if at pick 30 draft history shows you are expected to get a 60th percentile player, the “value” at that position above would be 60% of the top end of the market.
First, like anything, this is not absolute or perfect. Second, the draft is about taking good players and there will absolutely be times when a player at a non-premium position will be outsized value.
But if you go back and place free agents and extensions by their player value (and I have), many come out pretty close to the above. And it makes sense as players negotiate their contracts using current contracts and their relative performance as comparisons.
Some practical examples
Here’s where I’ll anger many.
The best example is a real one in this upcoming draft. The Colts need a TE and you cannot find a mock draft that doesn’t have them taking Tyler Warren or Colston Loveland at pick 14.
Here’s how to think about positional value and the Colts options:
The positional value drafting a TE…
Taking a TE at pick 14 is “worth” $14.2M. To show this, if you needed a TE and went to free agency to get one, here were the top options:
Evan Engram 2-year deal at $11.5M AAV 30 years old and an injury shortened his 2024 season, but he had back-to-back seasons of around 900 yards each in the prior two seasons and had a similar pace in 2024.
Juwan Johnson 3-year deal at $10.25M AAV Johnson is 28 and ended up re-signing with the Saints, but put up over 500 yards and one of the better average depth of targets among TEs, even with the disaster that the Saints offense has been.
Versus the positional value of an EDGE…
The Colts need a TE but they need a lot. To compare, let’s say they instead draft an EDGE which they also desperately need. At pick 14, an EDGE is “worth” $25M , $11M of added value compared to TE, and recent contracts confirm that and more. If you can even get an EDGE…
This off-season, the top EDGEs were Josh Sweat at $19.1M, Chase Young at $17M, and the Colts own Dayo Odeyingbo at $16M. None are elite pass rushers. Myles Garrett obviously reset the market, hitting $40M with his extension, and Maxx Crosby topped $35M, but neither hit the open market.
Last year you could at least get some top guys – Danielle Hunter signed for $24M (and re-signed this off-season for an eye-popping $35.6M), Leonard Williams for $21.5M, and Jonathan Greenard for $19M.
What do you get at EDGE for the same price as a top free agent TE? This year it would have been 32-year old Leonard Floyd with his 10% win rate for $10M or maybe-done 33-year old DeMarcus Lawrence at $10.8M coming off a Lisfranc.
The Colts options…
Warren and Loveland (my TE1) are good options, you just have to think of the relative options and value. To continue with the TE vs. EDGE scenario, what would be the Colts’ best move (I’m using current big board rankings for players available near their picks):
Option
Picks
TE then EDGE
R1-14: Tyler Warren / Colston Loveland R2-45: Nic Scourton / JT Tuimoloau
EDGE then TE
R1-14: Jalon Walker / Shemar Stewart R2-45: Mason Taylor / Elijah Arroyo
Trade
Trade R4-117 for Dallas Goedert or Michael Mayer
As the draft goes on, positional value obviously decreases in importance. At the Colts R2 pick, that $11M difference between EDGE and TE is cut in half, down to $5.6M (at pick 45, TE is worth $10.1M and EDGE is $15.7M).
Here are the positional value curves zoomed in to the first 90 picks for TE, CB, EDGE, and DT to show the differences:
The not-great history of drafting TEs high…
Positional value will get questioned on TEs as much as any position because most people love TEs. But besides being cheaper to replace in free agency, they just aren’t as impactful on the game as other positions. They are valuable and there’s a place to draft them, it’s usually just not high and history shows that.
2021 the Falcons took Kyle Pitts at R1-4 over Ja’Marr Chase and Penei Sewell. In the 2nd round they could have had Pat Freiermuth.
2019 Detroit took TJ Hockenson at R1-8 over Brian Burns, Christian Wilkins, and Montez Sweat, which were draft needs as well. They instead gave out the 2nd biggest free agency deal that year to DT Trey Flowers which worked out for one year.
In 2017 Tampa Bay took OJ Howard at R1-19 over needs at EDGE, CB, and OT with guys like Tre’Davious White, Garrett Bolles, Ryan Ramczyk, and TJ Watt on the board
What would I do?
My first choice would be to trade a 4th for Goedert (which is the Eagles rumored price) and I had this in my off-season mock. You are getting a proven top veteran TE at $14M to support Anthony Richardson. Could Warren or Loveland be better? Sure. Is it certain? Absolutely not.
If I couldn’t get the trade done, I would much rather walk out of the draft with Jalon Walker (or CB Will Johnson, WR Emeka Egbuka, or CB Jahdae Barron) in the 1st and Mason Taylor in the 2nd than Tyler Warren and Nic Scourton.
And remember, the way to think about this is it’s a R1 EDGE, R2 TE, and $11M of effective cap space value as they still have to fill these other needs.
What does it mean for the Eagles pick?
Here are the positional value numbers for the Eagles current first two picks at 32 and 64:
Position
R1-32
R2-64
Off-QB
$31.2M
$12.6M
Off-WR
$20.9M
$13.5M
Def-ED
$19.1M
$11.8M
Off-T
$16.7M
$11.0M
Def-IDL
$16.5M
$11.0M
Def-CB
$14.9M
$10.0M
Off-IOL
$14.3M
$10.2M
Off-RB
$12.8M
$9.9M
Def-LB
$12.7M
$9.4M
Def-SAF
$12.1M
$8.3M
Off-TE
$11.7M
$8.2M
Even at the end of R1, there are still pretty big differences in value of $4-7M between TE and SAF at the bottom and positions they should be interested in like EDGE, DT, and OL.
I think this year, more than most, Howie is going to let the strength of the board decide his pick. But if I had to guess, I continue to think the most likely scenarios are:
Day 1: Trenches…
If I had to put money on only one guy, I’d probably bet on Ohio State’s Donovan Jackson who played OG and OT and is known as a great team guy. He could be a future Lane replacement but even if he stays inside, IOL is a position whose positional value has dramatically changed, doubling the overall cap growth since 2021:
DT may be the strongest position group this draft and they’ve shown some interest in Walter Nolen, Alfred Collins, and TJ Sanders. Nolen has some off-field concerns that they will figure out and I still think goes much higher, but this is a position that is extremely expensive to get outside the draft.
For those hopeful for a SAF, LB, or TE, I just really don’t see it here. Since Howie returned in 2016, the highest a non-premium position was taken was Dallas Goedert at pick 49 in 2018 – the other 12 picks were DL (4), OL (2), CB (3), WR (2), and QB (1).
And if you are saying “well, he never drafted a CB in R1 and then did last year”, the huge difference is Howie has always valued CB, he just didn’t get one in the draft… prior to drafting Quinyon and DeJean, the Eagles had a top 3 most expensive CB room in the league. And Baun I believe is an exception to his rule enabled by how cheap his secondary has gotten, not a shift in philosophy.
Day 2: Trenches (again) but maybe a TE or SAF
I really expect back-to-back line picks and whatever wasn’t taken in the 1st will be taken now. So if they go Donovan Jackson in the 1st, one of my favorites in this class is TJ Sanders who is projected anywhere from early 2nd to end of the 2nd – if he’s there, I think the Eagles take him as they have shown a lot of interest in him.
If they didn’t get OL in the 1st, I’m sure they take somebody on day 2 and guys like Marcus Mbow and Dylan Fairchild at guard or a developmental OT like Ozzy Trapilo or Charles Grant will be day 2 guys.
Safety would be a really smart pick, not only is it a need, but it’s been getting more expensive recently and it may be the best position (along with DT) for the Eagles to lower future cap hits with Reed up for free agency. Andrew Mukuba and Xavier Watts are two that would make sense although I think they may really have their eyes on Malachi Moore later.
EDGEs like Bradyn Swinson, Josaiah Stewart, and Femi Oladejo all fit what they want and will go near their next two picks.
And TE is going to be a pick somewhere in this draft. It’s a strong class with strength on day 2 with guys like Gunnar Helm, Mason Taylor, and Terrence Ferguson both of whom they have shown interest in.
Here’s a quick mock draft using the above and matching with players they have shown good interest in:
Just a couple more weeks till the draft… Go Birds!
Related
Introducing my player value analytics website
I started this player value site a couple of years ago but never really “released” or publicized it. But over the past month, I’ve finally made some long-wanted changes and thought I would do a quick post to explain the site in case it is interesting or helpful to others.
I actually think this may be the best freely available draft and player value site out there.
If you have read my stuff, you will know I often use data like draft hit rates, player value, positional costs and free agency prices. To get this data, there isn’t a great or easy-to-use place to get it and I found myself manually pulling data and using it either in Excel or Python.
So, I decided to build a site that would give me what I wanted. And as a (personal) bonus, it allows me to stay sharp technically for my real job.
What you can find on the site
I have to give credit to Pro Football Reference for their work on Approximate Value (AV) which is one of the best single metrics of player value across any position. And it’s what I use as a basis for player value (but I have continually improved the valuation model on top of it) which weaves through so much of the site. You can find more detail on AV on their site here.
The actual analytics site is a responsive site and is mobile friendly, but the below images of the site included here will be small on a mobile device as I captured the desktop site for samples. If you want to see it better, just head to the site and navigate around.
Draft value
Here you can see player values for all drafts since 2000 and filter by year, position, and team.
And beyond player value, this page will show a draft pick’s value vs. expected value given their draft location. In 2020, Chase Young and Jonathan Greenard have similar career value but Young is 13% below expected value for the 2nd overall pick while Greenard was a draft hit, outperforming pick 90’s expected value by 33%.
Team performance and trends
This shows teams draft performance and free agency spend including their record trend, draft hit rates, if they exceeded or fell short of expected draft value, and how much they spend in free agency.
Clicking on a team takes you to a more detailed team page which shows:
Positional investment – how they invest in the draft and free agency for each position compared to the rest of the league
Draft performance – by year, the total player value obtained in the draft compared to their expected value and league average
Free agency spend – by year, what they have added and lost in free agency broken apart by free agency tiers (top, middle, bottom free agents)
Below is an example of the team positional investment view:
General Manager performance and traits
One of my recent – and favorite – adds to the site, you can see how GMs have led their teams, draft performance, how they spend in free agency, and their philosophy and what they value.
Like the Team page, clicking on any GM will take you to a more detailed page showing:
Philosophy – a summary of what they believe in running their teams including relevant quotes.
Draft performance – a similar view as the Teams page, this shows how much value they gained by year in the draft vs. expected, although this will only show years that they were a GM
Positional prioritization – which positions they have drafted by round and how that compares to the league
Free agency spend – again, a similar view as the Teams page with how they have spent in free agency
Player value
This page allows searching for any drafted player (UDFAs are not loaded yet, but something I am working on) and shows various aspects of a players value including:
Value percentile – a single number showing a player’s overall value percentile
Playing time adjust value – value percentile adjusted based on their playing time which will show good players that may have missed time due to injury
Draft capital – amount of draft capital used on the player
Value vs. expected – a player’s value vs. the expected value for their pick location
Career duration – view on how long the player has played
Total career value – while value percentile is independent of how long a player has played, Total Career Value measures a player’s cumulative career value
Positional trends
Another page I recently completely re-did and one I love, this shows draft and free agency trend information across positions including draft hit rates and draft capital usage, average free agency prices, and how both draft capital and free agency prices have been changing.
Clicking on any position will take you to a more detailed positional information page which includes:
Draft statistics – draft capital used over time and how many elite, above average, average, or poor players came from each class
Free agency – how free agency prices for the position have changed compared to the overall salary cap growth rate, both for all free agents and different tiers
Team positional investment – if you are curious which teams have invested in a position, here you can see every team’s investment in both the draft and free agency
Below is an example of the team positional investment view from the detail page.
Insights
Various one-off insight pages on various topics, including how free agency contract prices growth with the salary cap, draft prospects ages and trends, punter value, and others.
Below is the view on the salary cap vs. free agent prices which I have used often to project new deals and show that player prices (rightly) keep going up.
How to use
And lastly, there’s a page dedicated to a deeper explanation of the various fields, player value metrics, and the model changes I have made over the years to improve it including positional value adjustments, handling QB overvaluation, and smoothing yearly anomalies.
If you check it out, I hope you enjoy it and find value in it. I will continue to improve it and add to it.
