I got to speak with Ty Zentner on his path to punting, to the Eagles, and a look at what he brings to the NFL. A high-upside punter, most don't realize what rare company he is in entering the league. Read more
The Eagles finally picked up a punter, Kansas State's Ty Zentner. Zentner definitely has a bigger leg but also has some consistency issues to work through. Here I dove into all of his punts to show what the Eagles are getting. Read more
We are in a Golden Era for punting, with amazing athletes entering the league. And Oklahoma's Michael Turk is another top punter. But more than just being a great punter, he is single-handedly making punting cool again. Read more
Ten things I will be watching for as the picks roll in tonight. From who needs to draft well, which positions could have up or down years, top guys that should be in R1 but aren't, and where I think the Eagles will go. Read more
YaYa performed a 1.56 10-yard split while weighing in at 263 lbs.
That is rare and elite.
To put that into context, one of my favorite players in the draft, Nolan Smith, had a 1.52 10-yard split.
YaYA is 25 lbs heavier! Read more
An athletic freak for the defensive line, an equally athletic freak on the offensive side of the ball, a game-changer for the defensive backfield, and a DT who went to college at age 16. Read more
Standing 6'6 he boasts a ridiculous 86-inch wingspan.
To put that in perspective, Gannis is 7'3, 9 inches taller, and has an 87-inch wingspan. Read more
With how good recent receiver drafts have been, it is easy to expect it to continue. But what are the risks with this class? And how could it stack up to past years? And who could stand out? Read more
While teams can be successful through free agency and trades, long-term success is difficult without drafting well. A look at which teams need to draft well, which are poised for a surprise in 2023, and which have a tough road ahead of them. Read more
Sydney Brown’s Relentless Pursuit to Become A Philadelphia Eagle
Eagles’ safety Sydney Brown stretches during OTAs at the NovaCare Complex in Philadelphia on Thursday, June 1, 2023.
Sydney Brown was drafted by the Philadelphia Eagles with a lot of expectations, not from just the fans and the organization, but from himself.
That attitude is a part of his DNA and has allowed him to persevere in situations many others would have struggled or folded.
But Sydney and his family aren’t built like that.
They have been fighting for as long as they can remember, and the NFL is just another hurdle for them to attain success in.
Early Years:
Sydney and his identical twin, Chase, were born to Raechel Brown when she was just 18 and still in high school. Their mother, Raechel, described the transition from being someone who couldn’t even keep their room clean, to becoming a single mom of two.
And while it was difficult, she also enjoyed it.
“We did not have a lot, but we did have a lot of fun.”
They resided in London Ontario Canada and most boys interested in sports played hockey. But hockey is expensive and required pricey equipment, etc., so once again she transitioned.
She heard about a football league nearby and enrolled both of her sons.
It wasn’t hockey, but Raechel was a figure skater and understood the athletic desire to play sports, and this gave her boys somewhere to release their athleticism.
And while football was foreign to Raechel, “It’s just not something kids from our part of the world get to experience.”
The boy’s father, Darren Isaac, had played in the Canadian Football League for 3 seasons.
Not surprisingly, the twins were both really good, right from the start.
They were also extremely competitive. Not only on the field but with one another.
Sydney described being a twin as having everything they do as being a competition.
For a couple of kids who had never played the sport, their immediate success was unprecedented.
Their early football coaches described their desire and will as something they had never seen before.
Both were workout warriors and very determined.
During their 8 years of playing football together in Canada, the brothers never lost a game.
They were riding high as they entered their teens and high school years.
Then everything changed.
Illness:
Their mom gave birth to a healthy baby girl, Mya, but after she was born, Raechel started to get sick.
She was discovered to have ITP and had to undergo blood transfusions while fighting the disease.
Immune thrombocytopenia (ITP) is a type of platelet disorder. In ITP, your blood does not clot as it should because you have a low platelet count. Platelets are tiny blood cells that are made in the bone marrow. When you are injured, platelets stick together to form a plug that seals your wound.
Tired and unable to work, Raechel was physically not the same woman the kids had grown up with.
Adding more stress and sadness to the situation, her father passed away during this time as well.
While Raechel was fighting and recovering, the twins did their best to become caretakers for their sister, but the loss of income took its toll.
The family lost all of their possessions and their home.
“I don’t know if it’s lower you can go than homeless with 3 kids.”
In a move that could break or bond a family, they all moved into a shelter.
If outsiders thought the twins or their mother had a drive and desire to succeed before, these events only added gasoline to the fire.
Raechel was determined to still give her sons the best chances in life that she could, even if it meant that her boys would be over a thousand miles away.
America:
The family knew that in order for them to continue playing and learning at a high level they needed to be in an area that would take them far from home. So, with the assistance of Canadian football talent scout Justin Dillon, they applied to a private school in America.
St. Stephen’s Episcopal School in Bradenton, Florida.
The twins were accepted, and shortly after, the family drove 1,300 miles so that the boys could continue their education, play football, and hopefully gain more recognition.
Sydney and Chase were going to stay in the U.S. but the rest of the family had to head back to Canada.
Raechel mentioned the feelings she had as she was driving away.
“I’m going to shove these kids back in the car” (and go back home with them).
But she fought through the pain and did what she thought would be best for her boys.
“It was the most difficult thing I’ve ever done. It was totally unnatural, leaving your kids in another country with people you don’t know. I cried the whole way back.”
Sydney and Chase were about to embark on a life in another country and live with a family they had never met.
Saint Stephen’s football coach, Tod Creneti, had called his friend Phil Yates and explained he had two very talented football players from Canada joining the team and that they needed a host family.
Phil and his wife Karen agreed to welcome the boys into their home.
Karen stated that “There really wasn’t any question in our minds, but I remember lying in bed that Friday night thinking, ‘Is this really going to happen?’”
The boys moved in and enrolled in classes at the school and were becoming acclimated in Florida, while Raechel and their sister were struggling financially in Canada.
“Tuition or paying the rent was the choice. So we paid tuition.”
Subsequently, she lost her home and moved back into the shelter. Protecting her boys, as always, she hid this from her sons.
“It was not something I really told them. I just said they couldn’t come home.”
Sydney and Chase were struggling some as well.
Upon their acceptance, it was identified that they needed help to advance their education.
They attacked learning the same way they did their passion on the football field.
Host, Karen, was amazed at their dedication and their family’s strength. It was obvious the boys were not going to waste the gift their mother and the Yates family had provided.
“They had the foundation laid before they ever came to us. Raechel and their grandparents, they’re just good people. I’m just so in awe of Raechel to have the courage and forethought to bring her kids to Florida.”
In addition to focusing on their studies, it was evident that they also needed to put in some work regarding the game of football.
Despite being so good on the field, they had been succeeding without having been taught many play structures or schemes.
The possibilities of how much greater they could become were endless.
And a lot of that potential was realized right away!
Once Sydney and Chase joined the team, Saint Stephens didn’t lose a football game.
Winning 22 straight.
They also won two Florida I-A championships.
The brothers were succeeding in their studies and football, while their mother was doing the same with her health.
She had gotten a job at a local factory and a new home for her and their sister.
Finally, things seemed to be going well for the entire family, at the same time.
The boys finished high school and headed back to Canada.
College:
#Eagles get Sydney Brown, stud safety out of #Illinois. Rock solid player who has the ability to cover TE’s, really thrives near and around LOS.
Sydney and Chase’s high school accolades did not go unnoticed and their stay back in Canada would be short-lived.
Despite the twins not knowing much about America’s college football, Sydney joked that he didn’t know the difference between conferences, and once thought that Alabama and South Dakota were on the same level.
The colleges knew a lot about them.
Sydney went to Illinois where he started all 10 games as a true freshman in 2018.
A role he kept for the rest of his college career.
Chase went to Western Michigan in 2018, then transferred to Illinois in 2019, joining Sydney.
“This is what we dreamt about as kids. Having him come here has been like having a piece of home here in Illinois”
The twins were riding high, until once again, adversity reared its head.
A year after his brother joined him at college, the pandemic started.
The family was no longer able to see one another due to the borders being closed.
Throughout the 2020 COVID shutdown, the brothers worked out together and played in the 7-game-shortened season.
Chase was learning from offensive coordinator Rod Smith, and Sydney was working with Head Coach and DC, Lovie Smith.
2021 brought a new HC and DC to Illinois, but the new defensive coordinator, Ryan Walters, saw the same tenacity in Sydney as his previous coaches had.
“It’s in his DNA where he’s not going to run from anything. He attacks adversity head-on and doesn’t make excuses about anything. When he was wrong, he would own it. He enjoys working on things that he’s not good at. He enjoys the dissecting of his game. He really enjoys the process. So many people in today’s society are so obsessed with the outcome and the results that they lose sight of the beauty of the process, and how it shapes and molds you. Sydney is the complete opposite.”
Sydney kept impressing and finished his career in Illinois with 319 tackles, 26 passes defended, and 10 interceptions and was a large part of the success of the Illini defense that allowed the fewest points and second-fewest yards per game in the country.
Sydney was rewarded by being named with 1st-Team All-Big Ten Conference honors and he also led the Big Ten with 6 INT.
Things were again looking up.
Both brothers were excelling on the field and with travel restrictions being lifted their mother, Raechel, was able to come to see them for one of their last games in 2022.
Their Florida “host family” also came to watch them play.
Family and friends could see the progress the boys had developed in their game.
NFL Scouts around the league noticed as well.
Draft Day Weekend:
Both brothers were both selected in the 2023 NFL draft.
Sydney in the 3rd round to the Philadelphia Eagles and Chase to the Cincinnati Bengals in the 5th.
Sydney believes his strong family and the way he and Chase were raised are what led to their ascent to the NFL.
“I think the relationship that my brother and I shared really propelled us into the position I’m in now”, Brown said. “And definitely coming from the background we did, it definitely gave us a reason to push harder, especially with a family that I’m coming from and what they did to sacrifice to put me in the position that I am now. I guess you kind of look at it and you look at the story and where we came from and you can say, yeah, it wasn’t probable that they’d be successful or make a mark at the NFL, especially being from Canada”
Now in the city of Brotherly Love, he does not want to waste a single second on getting to work.
Sydney has his sights on a starting role but is willing to take on any assignment that Philadelphia asks of him.
“I want to compete for a starting job. I’m competing with everybody in the room, not just the guys in my position room. It goes beyond the starting job. I want to be a productive player as a rookie. I’m going to contribute however I can. If that’s as a defensive starter, perfect. If I have to be a backup defender and play on every special teams unit, I’m ready for whatever.”
His relentless practice habits have already impressed his teammates and coaches.
Newly signed Eagles safety Terrell Edmunds has been watching and is very impressed.
“He gives 110 percent every day. He’s going to be a guy that’s going to be in this league for a while. He’s a hard worker. He doesn’t say too much. He’s always smiling, but you just know that he wants it. He just goes out there and gives 110%. He’s willing to learn. He just loves football. You can tell.”
Chuck Walls, the Eagle’s Director of Player Personnel, shared some insight into their evaluation of Sydney.
“He’s powerful. When he closes ground, he can uncoil from his hips. He can really put force through contact and for a guy who is built the way he is (5-foot-10, 194 pounds), he can really move his feet. I spent a lot of time with him in the pre-draft process. He did very well in interviews, he was very sharp, he came across as very diligent, he’s very time-oriented. He’s a wonderful young man who is a really great teammate who was a Captain this year. He loves the game and you can see that on tape.”
Eagles General Manager Howie Roseman also shared his thoughts.
“Sydney Brown was a passion player for a lot of people in this organization. He was a red-star guy. And I think just a tremendous person with obviously really good athletic tools, leadership ability, and for us, just excited to get him in the building.”
Brown’s new Secondary coach D.K. McDonald spoke highly of the rookie safety, both on and off the field.
“He loves the game of football. He does and he works hard at it. He prepares. He asks tons of questions. And that’s on top of the skill that he has. His mindset. His growth mindset that he has of wanting to get better. He’s never pleased with where he’s at and those types of things draw you to guys. You know those guys that have that type of mindset, they’re always going to work hard and try to improve. And that’s what he does everyday.”
The sky is the limit.
The Future:
If you thought Sydney would become complacent or feel like he has made it after being drafted into the NFL and that his studying was over.
Think again.
Sydney has already been attacking the playbook.
“I think right now, it’s just about learning the defense, competing, just being the best version of myself every day, earning respect.”
The work never stops.
“You’ve got to simplify it, attack it, study, study, study until it’s unconscious competence.”
Sydney reflected on his journey to becoming an Eagle before he was off to another relentless workout.
“I think after we went to Florida and we were around some amazing people that helped change our lives. Not only from a mental standpoint but just routine-based. I think the habits that you produce and live by on a day-by-day basis really lead to who you are and how productive you are as a person, right? But again, I don’t think anybody is surprised by where we are and what we’re doing. I’m definitely not. I lived my routine, I lived football and it’s definitely a unique opportunity. I am so blessed to be sitting here right now saying that I am a Philadelphia Eagle.”
Sydney’s college DC, Ryan Walters, stated it best.
“Philly fans are going to love Sydney Brown.”
As Always, Thank You for reading!
David
6/15/2023
Follow me @PHLEagleNews
Follow us @PhillyCvrCorner
Follow Greg @GregHartPA
Sack Rate vs Pressure Rate vs. QB Play, A new way to look at NFL stats
Super Bowl 57
In Super Bowl 57, Mahomes’ passing numbers were 21-of-27 for 182 yards. His longest completion of the night was for 22 yards, and that came in the first quarter.
Patrick only attempted one pass for 20 or more yards, and that fell incomplete.
What Mahomes was good at, was extending plays by moving in and out of the pocket, despite playing with a sprained ankle.
To those observing the game during the first half, it appeared as if Mahomes and the Chiefs were struggling, but what they were dealing with was a lack of opportunities.
The Eagle’s defense and their feared pass rush were struggling.
Mahomes was pressured on 35.5% of his dropbacks.
This number was higher than their season average of 32.1%, and playing against a quarterback like Mahomes, it shouldn’t have been.
The Eagles generated their historic sack numbers, in part, to playing against many QBs who do not get rid of the ball quickly.
During the regular season, the Eagles sacked the QB 33.3% of the time when applying pressure. That number was almost 5% higher than the second-place team.
The Birds sent pressure 10 times in the Super Bowl. By their league-average stats, that should have resulted in 3 sacks.
They had zero!
Mahomes is the best in the NFL at avoiding sacks while being pressured.
Since he came into the league, he has only been sacked 11.2% of the time he is pressured.
Nobody else in the league is under 15% during this same timeframe.
So while the Chiefs did lack opportunities in the first half, Andy Reid and company still made adjustments to the passing game, despite Mahomes not having taken a sack.
Mahomes averaged getting rid of the ball in 2.93 seconds in the first half.
He lowered that to 2.46 seconds in the second.
Hindsight is 20–20, but maybe Eagles defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon shouldn’t have challenged the best QB in the league at handling pressure, by sending more pressure.
But I digress.
vs. Wentz
When the sacks are coming in bunches, look no further than the QB that the defense is sacking!
The Eagles sacked Carson Wentz nine times in a single game during the season. Sacking Wentz accounted for 12% of their sacks on the season for all 18 games in just 4 quarters.
The defense accomplished this by totaling 7 of those 9 sacks without sending pressure. That tied for the most sacks during the regular season while only utilizing a 4 man front since 2020.
In the first half, Carson lost 40 yards on 6 sacks. He only had 24 passing yards completing 3 of 10 attempts. He went into halftime with a net loss of 16 yards. And losing 24–0.
He was sacked 2 more times in the second half, losing an additional 18 yards.
So, in short, sending pressure vs Wentz is good (and most of the time not even necessary), while pressuring Mahomes equals bad.
Oftentimes, a sack is as much a QB stat as it is a pass rushers.
Stats, the more you know!
Individual and team sacks are fun stats, and they have been since the league started keeping track of them in 1982, but they should not be the barometer by which a defense’s success is measured versus a QB.
The pressure rate generated is a much better indicator of the havoc a defensive player is causing. It is a less volatile stat and when used, tells the tale of a player’s improvement year over year as well.
Sacks above or below expectation is a great chart/stat to follow as well.
2016 Bandon Graham
The Eagles need to look no further than one of their own pressure rate leaders as to why judging a player by their sack totals isn’t reliable.
Brandon Graham finished the 2016 season with 5.5 sacks but was ranked the 9th-best player in football by PFF heading into the 2017 season.
Their ranking caused a lot of head-scratching, but PFF rated Graham on his more than just QB sacks. Despite ranking 18th in sacks amongst edge rushers, PFF based their evaluation on the totality of the disruption and pressure he was applying to the QB.
BG was 2nd overall with 83 pressures and only 3 behind the leader, Oliver Vernon, who had a whopping 156 more pass-rushing attempts.
Graham didn’t have any games where he recorded multiple sacks, but he had nine games where he was credited with 5 or more pressures.
In week 8 he had 11 pressures versus the Cowboys, who were thought by most to have the best offensive line in football that year.
So while his Super Bowl-winning breakout 2017 season, in which he had 9.5 sacks, seemed to surprise some. It was right on par with those paying attention to his 2016 pressure rate.
Nolan Smith
A lot of fans didn’t see the value of a player like Nolan Smith during the 2023 draft process due to him having lower sack totals than some of the other edge rushers.
But his pressure rates are elite, as was every athletic score outside of his height and weight.
There is a lot more to defensive players than looking at the stats on the back of a football card.
Explosion grade on the Relative Athletic Scoring system is usually what translates to power. A player’s vertical and broad, specifically.
When you look at Nolan’s above, and even 2023 7th-rd pick Moro Ojomo’s
and compare it to the Eagle’s first-round pick, Derek Barnett, in 2017
You will find that the Eagles’ believe in those as an indicator as well.
New Stats?
If the league wanted to include sacks as a real barometer for a defensive player’s value, there would need to be metrics broken down into at least 5 categories.
Examples:
A 5-point sack would be the best sack. This would be a 1 vs 1 win for a clean sack vs a high-quality opponent.
A 4-point sack, a 1–1 win vs an average to below avg lineman.
A 3-point sack. One where the scheme, or an error on the defense leaves the defender unblocked. Basically no skill or win vs a defender, just a free shot the player took advantage of. You still get credit for getting there, because it is very hard to get a mobile QB down, especially one who has check-downs. Free shot or not.
A 2-point sack is a coverage sack. Same as above, but the QB has fewer options and has to rely solely on his escapability to avoid the sack.
Lastly, the 1-point sack. A sack you get due to facing a QB who will not get rid of the ball. You get the sack, but the QB should and could have thrown the ball away, and should never have held onto the ball for 4+ seconds. Had they done either, the sack would never have happened.
It’s a little convoluted and or confusing for the casual fan.
I have seen dozens of fan sites use different metrics to calculate what they believe to be a true sack rate.
Something like what I laid out above, done by someone much smarter than me, should come up with an evaluation that gets widely accepted.
Until they do, the pressure rate is the best predictor of future success.
The below link is a great place to start if this is a subject you would like to learn more about.
This stat goes one step further than the pressure rate and evaluates how often defenders actually get to the QB. And
PR– pressure rate and pressure rate %.
This describes how often a defender is able to get into the backfield and have an unabated path to the quarterback.
Per the sites that use this stat, plays in which a defender has no real chance to reach the QB (e.g. screens, RPOs, extremely quick passes) aren’t included as pass-rush opportunities. Removing those gives a better idea of which players are truly the best at pressuring and protecting the quarterback.
PRA– On the flip side, this is the linemanpressure-allowed rate.
This stat calculates an offensive lineman’s tendency to be beaten and allow a defender to get into the backfield and have an unobstructed path to the quarterback.
AS-A- Adjusted sacks allowed
This measures a lineman’s tendency to allow rushers to reach the passer.
As Always, Thank You for reading!
David
Follow me @PHLEagleNews
Follow us @PhillyCvrCorner
Follow Greg @GregHartPA
5/19/23
Ty Zentner: His Path to Punting, to the Eagles, and Why He Is in Rare Company
Do you know how many college punters since 2016 have had at least a 43-yard average, a 40-yard net, a 4.25 second hangtime, and put 40% of their punts inside the 20 yardline? Nine.
Corey Bojorquez, the NFL’s 6th rated punter in 2022 and annually in the top 10
Jake Bailey, consistently a top punter for the Patriots before his 2022 back injury
Jordan Stout, last year’s top-rated college punter and top drafted punter in 2022 by Baltimore
Braden Mann, previously with the Jets and now with the Steelers, unfortunately most famously known for a game-saving tackle that cost the Jets the top pick which would have brought them Trevor Lawrence
One, Sterling Hofrichter, was drafted by the Falcons, had a short career and was waived after an injury. Another, USC’s Ben Griffiths, is in the CFL and, if not for being a 31-year old, oft-concussed, converted Australian rules football college punter, should probably be in the NFL.
And the other two were in this year’s college class: Oklahoma’s Michael Turk, who signed with the Dolphins, and the Eagle’s own Ty Zentner.
And Ty almost never got here.
A bus may have gotten Ty to Philly
Ty was a multi-sport athlete at Shawnee Heights High School in Tecumseh, Kansas, but football wasn’t one of them. Entering his senior year, he had already committed to play soccer in college when the kicker-needy football team finally convinced him to come out and kick for them. And he did it reluctantly, getting an agreement from coaches to allow him to play both soccer and football.
But as his senior season continued, his high school kicking coach, Steve Block, was reaching out to junior colleges in Kansas to get Ty an opportunity to kick. And Coach Block asked him a question that may have started Ty’s path to the NFL. In Seth Kinker‘s (@SethKinker) recent interview, Ty explained:
[Coach Block asked me] would it be awesome to ride on a bus to your JUCO soccer games or would it be really cool to fly on a jet to your away football games when you are at Division I… ever since he brought up that point I was like ‘I think I want to play football’…”
With that, he switched sports, starting out at Butler Community College primarily as their kicker. After visiting Kansas State later in his freshman year, he knew that was where he was going to next but waited until after his sophomore season to transfer.
In his interview, Seth Kinker relayed a story from a colleague at Butler that what stood out about Ty was his willingness to bet on himself, knowing he could have transferred early to get more playing time but Ty knew he needed to develop:
When I was done with my freshman year at Butler, [I said] ok, I really need to learn how to punt… I knew deep down inside that I wasn’t good enough my freshman year… I needed to just work hard and knew going into my sophomore year if I developed the way I wanted to I would have a good season.
Seth Kinker, The Topeka Capital-Journal
In his second season at Butler and only his 3rd year even stepping on a football field, Ty was recognized as the nation’s best junior college kicker. And after only a handful of very obviously new-to-punting attempts his freshman year, Ty’s work paid off, improving his average from 27.6 yards per punt to 39.5.
And this year-over-year improvement hasn’t stopped.
Becoming one of the highest-upside punters in college
One of the highest rates of punts over 50 yards
Ty has incredible natural talent and one of the biggest – and quickest – legs in this class and showed it at Kansas State. When you watch him punt, he is so aggressive to the ball and it’s why he was second in this class with almost half of his punts going over 50 yards.
Watch these three punts but focus on his swing:
That’s a 55 yard punt inside the 10 that got the returner in trouble and caused a turnover, a 61-yarder, and a 66-yarder, each over 4.8 seconds of hangtime. And these aren’t selectively picking highlights – in 2022, Ty had 22 punts over 50 yards, second in this class behind only Bryce Baringer.
Pinning opponents deep from anywhere
Punting in the NFL is about distance, limiting returns which hangtime plays a big part in, and pinning teams back inside their own 20 yardline. That’s why I picked those metrics at the beginning of the article.
Last year I dug into the value of punts (“What’s the Value of a Good Punt?”) based on actual in-game scoring from 28,000 punts over 12 years. In it, I found that punts downed deep in opponent territory have high value, worth over 0.5 points per punt. Not surprisingly, the receiving team has a harder time scoring from a long field but what was surprising was that the majority of the value came from elevated scoring from the punting team’s next possession. Pinning the opponent deep often led to getting the ball back on a short-field.
Punters are expected to be able to consistently down the ball inside the 20 when punting from midfield or closer and Ty is really good here – he puts 78% of his short-field punts inside the 20 and 33% inside the 10 yardline. He had an “inside 20 to touchback” ratio of 5.8, right up there with the best in this class (except for Korsak who was so far ahead of everybody). And Ty, on average, forced opponents to start at their own 14, again behind only Korsak (who ridiculously forced an average start at the 6 yardline) and Brad Robbins (slightly ahead at the 12 yardline).
This is a really boring-in-a-good-way punt, showing his “average” short field punt. Punting from the Iowa State 46, he lands it at the 12 for a fair catch. While this is a dying punt in the NFL as teams play more aggressively, it’s what punters need to be able to consistently do when called on. It’s the 4-foot putt of football.
But as I watched all of his punts at Kansas State, what struck me is how many punts from his own territory he is able to pin inside the 20. In 50 open-field punts where he averaged kicking from his own 32 yardline, Ty put 22 punts inside the 20 yardline, better than anybody except short-field punting assassin Adam Korsak. And Ty put 10 punts inside the 10 yardline, this time better than Korsak and just behind Turk’s 12 punts for tops in college.
A couple of the clips above show this but three more. The first vs. Kansas is a high-value field-flipper with a 60 yarder from his own 20 in a nasty weather game… the second against TCU in the Big 12 Championship, where Ty put 5 of his 7 punts inside the 20 and 3 inside the 10… and the third against Iowa State under pressure where he took a running into the kicker penalty and got the ball downed at the 4 after a nice roll.
Focusing on his craft
I asked Ty what type of punter the Eagles are getting and he pointed to his leg speed and aggressiveness:
I’m a quick twitch athlete. My leg swing is just as quick as anyone else. I just need to turn that into controlled explosiveness.”
A lot of college punters have had big legs but that doesn’t guarantee success. But the one thing that is obvious if you spend any time with Ty is both his recognition of what he can get better at and his willingness to put the work in. He constantly uses the word “craft” when talking about his punting.
And it shows.
For a guy that had to be convinced to play football his senior year, Ty has improved every year. At Kansas State and still new to punting, he improved his average distance from 40.8 yards per punt his first season to 43.7 and finally to 44.2 his final year. Same with his hangtime, going from 4.12 seconds to a very pro-ready 4.27 seconds this season, best in the NCAA.
I asked about his dramatic improvements and he pointed to his constant work with coaches, continuously taking small things back to work on:
I’ve only played football for 6 going on 7 years. I have a lot of untapped potential. Each offseason I attacked strength training to get stronger, and I love diving into the areas I can improve. So I look at those things, go train with Jamie Kohl [of Kohl’s Professional Camps] on them, and take ideas and cues back home with me.
With this mentality, it is no surprise why the Eagles, with the type of players they have brought in and the culture that focuses on every detail and constant improvement, wanted Ty in the building.
I asked Ty about his pre-draft process:
The Eagles were the first team to contact me and work me out following the Combine. They were very transparent in the process, they told me what they liked about my style of punting and how it can fit into their system. I had a great connection with Coach Clay and Coach Brown so the interest was very mutual from the start.
The improvement hasn’t stopped. I asked him what he has been working on since the end of the season and it’s the length of his steps which he said has “been a game-changer for me since the season ended”.
The only knock which every scouting report and person that reviews Ty will hit on is his mis-hit rate. But watching these, two things. First, he has gotten some bad bounces that brought the short punt back. And second, he never misses off the side of his foot.
Why is this important? Because it is very fixable and his work on repeatable step length is going to help here. We only got to see two punts from last weekend’s rookie mini-camp but there is reason to be excited.
— Greg – PhillyCoverCorner (@greghartpa) May 5, 2023
I asked Ty about these punts and they were warmups which explains his much more casual swing. But even with that, he hit a 4.7+ second hangtime punt.
On to camp…
Going undrafted, while a disappointment, gives late round players more control over where they want to go and to pick the best situation for themselves. The Eagles were Ty’s first choice and, given that the Eagles were in contact with Ty throughout the entire process, he was the punter they were targeting as well.
Speaking to KSNT’s Landon Reinhardt (@landonian87) in a post-draft interview, Ty explained why he wanted to go to Philly:
Great coaches, one of their core values is connecting and being able to develop people, that’s something I really like.
I’ve said it before, if you are a team looking to compete for the Super Bowl every year, margins are incredibly slim and every position needs to be looked at for upgrade. Howie knows this and would not have been as aggressive to bring a punter in this offseason if he didn’t think it could upgrade.
And Ty is going to bring something that the Eagles have not had in years. Arryn Siposs is a dependable short-field punter but suffers with where the league is increasingly using punters. Among punters over the last 5 years with at least 30 punts, Siposs ranks:
58th out of 65 punters on punts over 50 yards
59th on punts over 60 yards
50th on punts downed inside the 20
20th on punts downed inside the 10 (this is his primary area of value)
17th most mis-hit or short punts (less than 35 yards)
Ty absolutely has a shot to win the battle as he has more leg talent than we have had in years. And it’s what we all want.
Philly is such a great fanbase and if there is another city that appreciates punters as much as Philly, I’m not sure what it is. I asked Ty if he saw this tweet from @TheBirdsBlitz and knows how excited Philly is to have him here and he said he has definitely felt the love.
My Twitter profile half-jokingly has three life goals on it – to get fans to stop mocking round one running backs in Philly, to draft a top cornerback, and to draft a punter. While Ty wasn’t technically drafted, I’m looking forward to being able to check this one off as he goes through camp.
And one last thing – Ty asked me to include this message to Philly:
I really appreciate all the support that the Eagles fanbase has given me. Right now I’m focused on improving every day and making the most out of each opportunity I get. Philly already has my heart.
Ty Zentner
As I’ve gotten to know him, I know he is going to be a guy that Philly loves.
Fly Eagles Fly and go mash the ball Ty!
Big thanks to Ty for being so kind with his time and answering a ton of my punting questions. And credits to both Seth Kinker and Landon Reinhardt for their great interviews with Ty – if you haven’t checked them out, please do so:
Cam “Beef Jurgy” Jurgens: Philadelphia Eagle OL, Farmer, Entrepreneur and Foodie
Aug 12, 2022; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Eagles center Cam Jurgens (51) during warmups against the New York Jets at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
It’s hard to believe Cam Jurgens had more important things on his mind when the Eagles selected him in the second round of the 2022 NFL draft, but finding shelter in his grandmother’s basement at her home in Pickerel, Nebraska from a tornado would qualify.
Draft Night
The night Jurgens was drafted he was unable to do a video chat after being selected due to a tornado warning causing him to not have WIFI.
Nebraska…
“Oh, my God, it was wild. About 10 minutes before I got picked, everybody’s phone is buzzing. My phone buzzed (for a tornado warning). I get picked, and we’re upstairs celebrating, and all of a sudden we hear this loud thunder and lightning outside. I’m like ‘all right, guys, we have to go downstairs now.’”
It was such a special night, that not everyone was on board to flee to safer surroundings, tornado warning or not.
“Grandma was like, ‘No, it’s been a great night. I’m not moving.”
Gotta love Grandma!
One would be hard-pressed to find a wilder draft night story.
“I gotta think I’m going to remember that for a long time. It was excitement, then all of a sudden chaos of a tornado, and thunder and lightning, and hail coming in. It was crazy.”
So if fans thought that the Eagle’s drafting competition, in the form of another OL in the 3rd round was going to rattle him, think again.
Eagles
Fortifying the lines is a core belief. I write about it every year when discussing the Eagles’ draft strategy. Fans like to mention every skill position player available, yet every year Howie shows you who is once again, by building through the trenches.
In 2022, when Philadelphia was on the board with their second-round pick #51, many fans, and talking heads during the draft, stated the Eagles should select Nakobe Dean.
(How they still drafted him a round later is a story all in itself).
Roseman actually stated he considered Dean at 51 but stuck to his belief, and stayed in the trenches by selecting Nebraska center Cam Jurgens.
Cam essentially had a redshirt season. He was brought in to eventually become Jason Kelces’ self-appointed successor.
But, the Eagles have a QB by the name of Jalen Hurts who is changing retirement plans and causing free agents to think twice about leaving.
Chasing rings is hard to walk away from, and the Eagles reaching the Super Bowl last year, makes it even harder as the hope of how good this team could be, became a reality.
So in 2023, when Kelce announced he was coming back, the Eagles had already anticipated such a decision and had countered by having Cam practice both guard and center last season.
Jurgens, and the Birds, were determined to make sure he was prepared to take over at RG when Isaac Seumalo left via free agency.
The Eagles love Jurgens, and he was always projected to get on the field this year, for one position or another.
Having to be ready to play multiple positions is not anything new to Cam, he’s been doing it since High School.
Growing up
Cam, the youngest of three children, is from Beatrice, Nebraska, where he worked on the family farm raising cattle, corn, and beans.
He was also developing the work ethic and character that follows him to this day.
Bryan Cook, a teacher, and longtime broadcaster in Beatrice
“All the talent he’s got, it’s still about the person he is. Not the athlete he is. It’s all from his mom and his dad and his family.”
The life lessons he learned on the farm in Nebraska, such as being prepared, working hard, and soaking in every bit of knowledge he could, serve him well in the game of football too.
Beatrice High School
Jurgens was a jack of all trades, playing fullback, linebacker, tight end, and even punter.
A natural athlete and hard worker, Cam has always been unfazed by being asked to do different chores or to play different positions.
Cam played basketball for his HS, where he was an all-state honorable mention selection, and he was a member of the track team, for which he won a state title in 2018, as well as being a four-time state champion in the discus and three-time champion in the shot put. Which runs in the family.
His mother Beth is a 12-time NAIA All-American at Nebraska-Kearney. She is in the school’s hall of fame by earning seven national titles, setting the indoor shot put record and the NAIA national championship discus record.
But excelling at football is Cam’s thing.
Jurgens earned Second Team All-State honors as a sophomore, and First Team All-State as a junior.
Even after missing half of the games his senior year due to an injury, he still ended up with 57 tackles and 1 interception on defense, while contributing 318 rushing yards, 277 receiving yards, and 8 touchdowns on offense.
He also was awarded another All-State honor.
Cam played at 245 pounds in high school as the team’s tight end, but unbeknownst to him as he made his way to Lincoln, he was about to be asked to play a position that he had never played nor even taken a snap.
College
Coming out of high school, Jurgens was ranked as the number seven tight end in the 2018 recruiting class, and number one in his home state.
Despite all of those accolades, and having no experience at the position, Nebraska Head Coach Scott Frost thought Jurgens could use his “nasty streak” and be turned into a dominating center.
So, in the spring practices of 2019, Frost did just that, by having Jurgens make the transition from tight end to center.
He would go on to start 31 out of a possible 32 games and play 2,067 snaps at the position.
Per PFF, in 1,016 pass-blocking snaps, Cam allowed 1 sack and a meager 4 QB hits in his 3 seasons as a starter.
This was good enough to be Nebraska’s highest-graded OL with the best pass and run-blocking grades.
He also performed well at the Combine.
Cam was the 5th fastest OL with a 4.92 40-yard and showed off his strength by pumping out 25 bench reps (225 lbs).
All of the hard work translated into Cam being the highest-drafted player from Nebraska, of the decade.
College scouts and NFL teams were taking notice, including former Eagles VP of player personnel, Andy Weidl.
“All those things that we like, that our offensive linemen do, we saw in Cam.”
Andy also stated that Jurgens does everything Stoutland likes an OL to do.
And Stoutland has a very persuasive voice.
So does the player he will eventually take the position of center from.
Praise
Jason Kelce
“He’s my favorite center prospect of the last 3-to-5 years, I think he can be special. I’m excited to work with him. This kid offers a seamless transition, same type of player, with exceptional upside. It’s hard to explain why I think he’s so good, it comes down to how he moves and looks. He bends well, opens his hips, is very strong for his size, is an incredible athlete for his size. On top of that, just a great temperament, solid workhorse, lunch-pail mentality.”
“I’m pretty excited about the kid,” Kelce said. “I liked him a lot. I like his tools. I like his mentality. I think I’ve looked at a few guys the past couple years when they’ve asked my opinions. He’s here obviously because [offensive line coach] Jeff Stoutland and Howie Roseman, Nick Sirianni, all these people, watched his tape and really believe in him. I think, although he does have a lot of similar traits to me, he’s going to be his own player, and I’m looking forward to helping out any of these young guys, in particular Cam.”
“Out of all the guys that compare the most to myself, this guy is him.” Jason Kelce
Can’t get much higher praise.
What Cam, and Kelce, lack in strength and size when they go against larger DLs, they make up for with their knowledge of the game and their technique.
Jurgens like Kelce, can also get to the second level down the field, and on stretch plays, he can be seen getting to the third level too. There is no quit.
Here’s @HuskerFBNation center Cam Jurgens escorting an Oklahoma defender 34 yards after the point of engagement—and making it look easy. Have a great Wednesday! pic.twitter.com/v1gsyyHLL0
When he is not eating his “Beef Jurgy” Cam likes to enjoy a bowl of chili with a side of cinnamon rolls, IYKYK.
If you don’t, look it up.
Surprisingly delicious.
Cam Jurgens; football player, entrepreneur, and Nebraskan foodie.
As Always, Thank You for reading!
David
Follow me @PHLEagleNews
Follow us @PhillyCvrCorner
Follow Greg @GregHartPA
5/4/23
What to Know About the Eagles New Punter Ty Zentner
I missed this year.
The Eagles finally pick up a punter and I hadn’t even dug into him. But I’m here to atone and, I have to say, while the Eagles didn’t bite on one of the three guys drafted, they got somebody really interesting.
Kansas State kicker-punter Ty Zentner
Many knew Kansas State’s Ty Zentner better as a kicker as he was the one that famously beat TCU in the Big 12 Championship on a 31-yard field goal in overtime and got carried off the field.
It was his 9th straight field goal on way to a perfect 11-for-11 season including two over 40 yards and a 53-yarder against West Virginia. But what got Ty quickly picked up in the UDFA period by the Eagles was his punting.
I have wanted the Eagles to draft a punter for two years now. Long the ignored and forgotten position, it became very real in the Super Bowl when a poorly directed punt was one more blow chiseling the Eagles lead away. The Eagles punting situation is not terrible, but it can – and needs to – be upgraded. When you are planning to compete for the Super Bowl every year, margins are thin.
What are the Eagles getting in Ty as a punter?
Below shows how Ty stacks up on the core punting stats with the other top punters that were drafted. Here’s the summary:
Good, pro-level hangtime of 4.27 seconds
Decent distance of 44.2 yards per punt, with a 41.5 net
Limits returns with a 6.3 average and only 3 returns of 10 yards or more
Consistently gets balls downed inside the 20 instead of touchbacks
Punter
YPA
Avg Hangtime
Yards per Return
Inside 20
Touchbacks
Ty Zentner
44.2
4.27
6.3
29
5
Brad Robbins
42.3*
4.27*
6.9
21
0
Ethan Evans
45.7
– **
– **
39
13
Bryce Baringer
49.0
3.76
5.9
24
4
Michael Turk
46.6
4.18
2.9
23
10
Adam Korsak
44.0
3.61
-0.3
35
2
* Brad Robbins suffered an injury part way through the season which dramatically hurt his numbers. His punts prior to the injury averaged 47.6 yards and a 4.37 hangtime. ** Ethan Evans punted DII which is severely lacking in punting statistics, so not all data is available for him.
One thing to remember is the new, punter-unfriendly Vapor Elite Slim ball used by many colleges distorts a lot of the above stats. It’s a smaller ball to help QBs but the smaller surface area to strike hurts punters, especially on mis-hit balls. Remember that point as I will get back to it.
Open field punting
Open field punts – those from a team’s own side of midfield where a punter should be able to fully kick the ball – are what the league cares about. Most think punting is dying in the NFL but it is really short-field punts that are decreasing in frequency as teams get more aggressive in plus territory. How does Ty stack up on open field punts? I charted all of his punts (and the other punters in this class) below:
Punter
# Open Field Punts
Avg Punt from Yardline
Avg Distance
# of 50+ Yards
# of 60+ Yards
# under 35 yards
Ty Zentner
50
60.7
46.4
18 (36.0%)
4 (8.0%)
7 (14.0%)
Brad Robbins
40
60.3
43.9
7 (17.5%)
2 (5.0%)
6 (15.0%)
Bryce Baringer
45
64.6
50.9
22 (48.9%)
10 (22.2%)
4 (8.9%)
Michael Turk
55
58.5
47.5
19 (34.5%)
3 (5.5%)
3 (5.5%)
Adam Korsak
71
59.9
44.3
13 (18.3%)
3 (4.2%)
5 (7.0%)
When able to just rear back and kick the ball, Ty averaged 46.4 yards in the open field which would be behind every punter above except Adam Korsak (Robbins averaged 47.6 yards in the open field prior to his injury).
But Ty actually had more big punts (over 50 or 60 yards) than any punter except Bryce Baringer, with 18 punts going over 50 yards and 4 over 60 yards. Additionally, he had 29 punts over 4.5 seconds of hangtime.
Here are some examples of what he is capable of. Against Missouri and kicking from his own 31 yardline, Ty sends a ball that carries 59 yards in the air and checks up perfectly to be downed at the 2 for a 66 yard punt.
Here against Texas he punts from his own 35 yardline, lands the ball near the goaline and has it kick sideways out of bounds at the 4 yardline.
You aren’t going to see many punts better than those. He can kick. And he showed this at the Kohls Pro Combine where he had kicks of 50 yards and a 4.55 hangtime, 54 and 4.86, 52 and 4.51, and 48 and 4.70.
But there’s a “but”…
But you know how math works… if he has one of the highest percentage of big punts but is behind the other punters in overall average distance, it means he has a lot of short punts that are pulling the average down. And you see that in the table above.
Ty had 7 punts, or 14%, that went less than 35 yards and four that went under 30 yards, including 2 of his 6 punts in the Sugar Bowl against Alabama below:
His shank rate is at least double the other punters in this class (again, Robbins shows high above at 15% but he only had one shank, or 6% of his punts, prior to his injury). Both of the above examples had bad bounces but they still only carried 30-35 yards in the air and the punter’s job is to generate better bounces.
Short field punting
Short field punting, those punts in plus territory where you are trying to get the ball downed inside the 20 or 10, are important but a dying play in the NFL.
These are all smaller sample sizes with every rookie punter having fewer than 10 short field punts in their final college season. But Ty compared well here.
Don’t look at average distance here, what is important is where you force the opponent to start and what percentage of the remaining field position your punt can consume. Ty started opponents at the 13 yardline, gaining over 71% of the remaining field position, and only put one ball into the endzone.
Punter
# Short Field Punts
# Touchbacks
Avg Distance
Avg Opponent Start Yardline
% of Yards Gained
Ty Zentner
9
1
29.2
13.6
71.6%
Brad Robbins
5
0
31.2
12.0
73.6%
Bryce Baringer
5
1
28.0
14.8
65.4%
Michael Turk
8
4
29.0
14.4
70.5%
Adam Korsak
6
0
35.8
6.3
85.0%
Ty is right with the best punters in this class with the exception of Adam Korsak – if a team was going to only short field punt, Korsak is your guy.
You can’t directly compare numbers from college to pros due to the difference in the ball – last year’s rookie punters consistently showed several yards of distance improvement as well as 0.2 to 0.3 seconds better hangtime in the NFL
But for what it is worth, here is how Arryn Siposs performed in 2022:
Averaged 47 yards per punt on 40 open field punts, bottom 10 in the league
Averaged a 4.22 second hangtime, 27th in the league
Put 8 of 40 punts (20%) over than 50 yards and none over 60 yards
Had 3 that went 40 yards or less, including the Super Bowl punt, and none that were under 35 yards
So what should we look for with Ty?
Ty definitely has a bigger leg than Siposs. He also is way less consistent and shank rates of near 15% aren’t going to fly in the NFL.
But remember earlier when I said the college ball was less forgiving than the pro ball? I am not sure if that is causing some of the inconsistency but it is something to watch. If Ty can up his consistency and cut his “under 40 yard” punts dramatically, he’s going to punt in the NFL.
Back to his kicking, Ty does kick in addition to punt, but dual-duty kicker-punters are interesting but overvalued – NFL teams are not going to go with one guy. The positions are too important and they still need a holder. But as we saw this past season, if you get an injury to one of the specialists, somebody like Ty can fill in.
Me personally, I still think Howie is missing value in the draft by not grabbing one of the top punters coming out. We have had back-to-back years with a handful of top guys, guys with both big legs and consistency come out. But, I am excited that we finally have competition coming in and Ty is somebody that has great potential. He is going to impress when we see his first handful of punts, but we need to see if the shanks sneak back every 8 to 10 punts.
The Eagles will figure it out in camp but if Ty can limit his shanks, his bigger leg is going to win the camp battle easily and the Eagles found a great upgrade in the UDFA period.
10/29/2022 Oklahoma vs Iowa State football. Photo Ty Russell
Well, he’ll make it cool for the average fan – a lot of us are already punting fans. But Oklahoma’s Michael Turk is not only one of the country’s best punters, he is one of football’s most interesting men.
He made news at the 2020 Combine when he hit 25 reps on the bench and broke the record for punters and more than some of the NFL’s freaks:
25 reps on the bench press from Michael Turk(A PUNTER😳) at the NFL Draft Combine 🏈
That’s the new record for punting prospects. That’s also more reps than NFL stars like:
After not getting drafted, he was allowed to return to college and is back in the draft this year.
In 2022, he was college’s top graded punter. Against Kansas State, kicking from his own 40 yardline, he put a ball 80 yards through the endzone and into the stands. Keep the sound on below as IsaacPunts explains where the ball landed:
He chronicled his mission over weeks to knock a ball stuck in the OU rafters free with a punt. He punted helium-filled balls to settle that age-old question. He filled balls with soda I’m not sure why. He chronicled punting a ball out of the Oklahoma football stadium. He did the penny trade challenge around OU’s campus and turned it into $55.
He challenged his fiance and All-American OU shortstop Grace Lyons to see if he could punt balls of all sizes – ping pong balls, oranges, softballs, yoga balls – further than she could hit them. It came down to the wire… below are some highlights.
He’s not just fun to follow, he can mash
If you’ve read my punter content before, you know how much hangtime means – a lot of college guys may have the distance, but NFL return units will feast when given some return room. So of course Turk, who goes by “Hangtime” on Instagram and YouTube, is going to be my guy in 2022.
In 2021, he averaged 51.2 yards and a 4.20 hangtime, among the best in that class
In 2022 with the punter-hating ball, he averaged 46.6 yards and a 4.18 hangtime and was the nation’s top-rated punter
In the Shrine Bowl, he upped his stats to 49.2 yards and a 4.39 average hangtime, with a 67 yarder and 3 of 5 punts inside the 20 yardline
After an all-time great punting class in 2022, this class is another good one and Turk is right there with the top punters. Below shows college distance and hangtime and Turk is there with only Jordan Stout last year further to the top-right than him.
For the second year in a row like a lunatic, I charted every punt from the top punters in this class. Turk is going to be drafted early:
Overall punting stats
His hangtime, second only to Michigan’s Brad Robbins, limited returners to a 2.9 average return. Only Adam Korsak was better. And Turk put 22 of his 63 punts over 60 yards. He can boot.
Open-field punting
On his 55 open-field punts (punts from behind mid-field), on average he punted from his own 42 yardline and netted 47.5 yards, eating up over 80% of the field position, best in this class. He put 14 of his open field punts inside the 10 yardline and 3 inside the 5 yardline, including this beauty.
Short-field punting
Most think punting is dying but when you look at usage, it’s really short-field punting that is dying. But it’s still important to get the ball inside the 10 yardline when teams do it.
Here, Turk is often overlooked because he is known for his leg. But on short-field punts (punts from inside the 50 yardline), he gained 69% of field position, second best in this class behind Adam Korsak who is absolutely elite on short-field punts. Turk forced opponents to average a start at the 14 yardline.
Punting from deep
One area where many punters suffer is when they are backed up deep in their own territory. And it’s where a punter can really dig their team out of a hole… or hand the opponent some easy points.
From punts inside his own 10 yardline, Turk made use of his leg and averaged 52 yards on four punts, forcing the opposing team to start in their own territory on each one, almost 10 yards better than the rest of this class. Against Iowa State this year, 3 of Turk’s 6 punts were from deep in his own territory, averaging 51 yards including this 61 yarder:
Taking his skills to the NFL
Turk is going to be drafted and go high. For the teams that are looking for a punter – the Patriots, Rams, Bengals, Packers, Cardinals, and hopefully Eagles – this year’s punters will probably start being taken by pick 140-150.
Wherever Turk goes, he is going to be a hit, on and off the field. And I expect him to make his punting mark on the city. And on YouTube:
New England: Turk’s already punted a ball out of Oklahoma’s softball stadium, could he challenge the 37-foot tall Green Monster at Fenway and put a ball over it…?
Cincinnati: Spend a day at King’s Island seeing which rides he could put a ball over… or try to put a ball over the Cincinnati Museum Center.
Los Angeles: A ton of possibilities here, I’d love to see Turk punt a ball off the HOLLYWOOD sign and see which zip code it lands in… or put one over the Hollywood Bowl.
Green Bay: He and Grace could set aside the balls and compete kicking and hitting blocks of cheese.
Philly: Another big market, there would be plenty of options… could he kick a ball from Pat’s Steaks to Geno’s? Or put one to the top of the Art Museum steps? Or one across the Schuykyll River? We already had our athlete-couple royalty in Zach and Julie Ertz, he and Grace could follow.
Thanks to IsaacPunts, another must-follow for any punting fan, and of course, Hangtime himself for a lot of this content.
In 2022 Jammie started all 13 games while recording a team-high 99 tackles, including 5.0 TFLs, 1.0 sack, 1 interception, 5 pass breakups, and 1 fumble recovery. Whew, talk about a running sentence.
Jammie played multiple positions for Florida St, and that versatility will allow him to start sooner, rather than later.
Per PFF, Jammie played 633 box snaps, 759 deep snaps, and 1,348 slot snaps over his collegiate career.
In 2022 he played more snaps at free safety, but in 2021 and 2020 he played more as a slot corner.
Robinson has played at least 150 snaps in all three alignments, Free Safety, Strong Safety, and Slot/Nickel Corner.
At this year’s Senior Bowl, Jammie played both the slot and safety. Showcasing for teams the skill set and flexibility he will bring to their roster.
In today’s NFL, it is very difficult for any defense to match up well against the ever-expanding offensive formations. Many teams often use 5 or even 6 defensive backs to combat the alignments.
With many receivers moving all around from the outside to the slot, having someone like Jammie has become an invaluable necessity for teams.
Jammie has proven himself as a cover corner (QB ratings against him when targeted average 75), a blitzer (22 pressure in 2022) while also exuding above-average closing speed, someone who quickly fills the gaps at the line of scrimmage and a desire and willingness to make big hits.
He is physical and efficient. If you didn’t know better you could mistake him as an undersized linebacker.
Jammie is also durable. He played 2909 snaps over his 4 yr college career.
You will not find someone with more experience playing the position in this draft.
Skill Set and Attributes:
Diagnoses and reads plays very fast, high football IQ
Jammie has non-stop motor, which is a theme of everyone I have written about this off-season
He has above-average cover and ball skills
He runs downhill and is highly effective at shooting the gaps
Defends crossing routes well
Jammie is quick fast enough to keep up with receivers sideline to sideline
Scout Comparison:
San Fransico safety Jimmie Ward.
Both are 5’11, Jammie is 194 lbs and Jimmie is 193 lbs.
Ward does everything I described Jammie doing but at the NFL level.
Jimmie has played both safety spots, slot corner, outside corner and has been effective, if not above average, at every one of them.
This is what the future could be for Jammie.
As Always, Thank You for reading!
David
Follow me @PHLEagleNews
Follow us @PhillyCvrCorner
Follow Greg @GregHartPA
4/27/23
Ten of My Top Thoughts Ahead of the 2023 Draft
1. Defensive line is going to be historically drafted (and good)
The 2011 draft is still the top year for defensive linemen with 12 going in the first round and one of the best player value years, especially at DE/EDGE where the 1st rounders averaged out as 80th percentile pros. That’s insane. Players like Von Miller, J.J. Watt, Robert Quinn, Ryan Kerrigan, Cam Heyward, and Cameron Jordan all went that year.
Will this year beat it? It is hard to say it will but it is going to be close and well better than averages. Over the past 5 years, drafts average just over 6 defensive lineman taken and over the past 10 years, it is over 7. As of this morning, Grinding the Mocks has 7 defensive lineman identified in the 1st round and I think that likely goes higher. In my “what would I do mock”, I have 9 defensive lineman with Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Keeanu Benton, and Zach Harrison in the 1st on top of the known guys.
On the quality of this class, we won’t know for years and we will have to bookmark this post, but I bet this is one of the top 2-3 defensive line classes over the past decade.
2. Ignore the noise, the Eagles are most likely taking an EDGE
Howie has been open – and recently really good – with sticking to his board and taking the best player. This will always be the best player at a position they value, so that means defensive line, offensive line, receiver, and cornerback. It could be any of those positions and but I think the stars will align that makes this most likely to be an EDGE. I wrote earlier in the cycle how Howie drafts for needs a year or two out which has more info on why.
They will love Jalen Carter and could trade up for him, but I still think Carter is going to be the first non-QB taken and probably out of reach for the Eagles with so few picks this year. I think the only WR worthy of a top-10 pick is JSN so that is unlikely. There is so much noise on the tackles and they will definitely draft OL, but I just don’t think this class matches recent top picks like Tristan Wirfs, Penei Sewell, and Charles Cross. But if the Eagles think there is one, great, take one. Nobody sees CB as a pick after they re-signed Slay and Bradberry, but that won’t matter if they like somebody enough. Gonzalez is my top guy and Devon is worthy of a pick, but I think at least one of them is gone by 10.
But at EDGE, you have Will Anderson, Tyree Wilson, and Nolan Smith who all are worthy of a top-10 pick. At least one will be there or close enough to 10 that Howie will be able to get one. For me, it is Nolan Smith who I have written and posted on plenty – I think he is one of the best EDGEs to come out in years.
3. Wide Receiver is going to have a down year and more of the best pros will come from deeper in the draft
Receiver averages just over four taken in the 1st and Grinding the Mocks has four targeted in the 1st – JSN, Jordan Addison, Quentin Johnston, and Zay Flowers. I wrote previously about how we have been spoiled with recent receiver drafts and that I expect this year to look more like the 2017 class. In 2017, we saw fewer taken (three in the 1st and three in the 2nd) but also saw more of the top value guys coming from later in the draft.
With this class full of older and undersized receivers – who historically have underperformed in the pros – I think some pro weaknesses on the top guys are being ignored and guys like Marvin Mims and Tyler Scott are way overlooked in this class.
The three guys I have been higher on than consensus through the entire draft cycle were Devon Witherspoon (who is now CB1 or CB2), Nolan Smith (who is now a favorite), and Mims. We will see where Mims goes but I think it could be and should be higher than most think.
4. Four QBs aren’t going in the top 10
This was more controversial just a week ago, but both CJ Stroud and Anthony Richardson have been dropping some. I never thought four would be taken in the top-10 – it has never happened before and last year showed that teams have some restraint. We will see if that lasts.
Obviously the more QBs that go in the top-10, the better for the Eagles, but I expect three to be taken. Who knows, but I have Carolina taking Bryce Young and Houston taking CJ Stroud – the recent noise there is either a smokescreen, a bad decision, or they really, really don’t want to work with his agent. Richardson I love and think his issues are mechanical and can be fixed. I have the Colts taking him but there are several teams that could including Detroit or Seattle that could let him develop.
I wrote more on QB dvelopment and Richardson specifically here if you missed it. Two of Richardson’s biggest issues are locking his front leg and dropping his arm which are very fixable.
5. Speaking of QB development, these are some of the picks I want to see
Again, caveat this with you have to stick to your board and not reach for a need. But if you have read my stuff, you know I am incredibly big on surrounding QBs, especially young QBs, with talent. You see what happens when it doesn’t happen in Chicago with Fields. These are the picks I would love to see and ones I have on my “what would I do” mock:
Jaxon Smith-Njigba to Atlanta: I love Desmond Ridder and had him as my only R1 QB last year. Give him JSN who will be filthy in the slot and fits so well there with Pitts and London. As the only WR I think is deserving of a top-10 pick, Atlanta is positioned perfectly here.
Darnell Wright to Chicago: I know I am way higher on Darnell than most, he is my top OT. Chicago has to protect Fields and they have to get Teven Jenkins on the interior. They likely will have their pick of the first or second OT off the board and this makes so much sense.
JSN, Quentin Johnston, or Broderick Jones to Houston at 12: If Atlanta doesn’t take JSN, he needs to go here. I am also higher on Quentin Johnston than most. And with OTs likely seeing a run around their pick, a Broderick Jones would be awesome here. Take Bryce and give him another guy at 12.
Dawand Jones to Pittsburgh: For their legacy being a trenches team, the Steelers don’t draft that way as they have not taken OL in the 1st round since David DeCastro in 2012. With picks 17 and 32, they are well positioned to change that this year. I love Dawand and love his fit in Pittsburgh where he can lock down RT for Pickett for years.
6. Every year there are 10-12 top players that come from deeper in the draft – who are they this year?
I wrote previously on hit and miss rates in the draft and it is pretty consistent that at least a third of the 1st round aren’t top players. And every year, there are players deep in the class like Tariq Woolen and Creed Humphrey and Amon-Ra St. Brown that come from days two and three. It’s interesting to wonder who they could be this year. Here is a deeper look at who hits and misses in case you missed it:
While I will be no more right or wrong than others and where these players go and the opportunity they are put in has so much to do with what they become, here are my list of guys I think we could look back on as guys that should have gone in the 1st:
WR Marvin Mims
WR Tyler Scott
OT Dawand Jones
OC John Michael-Schmitz
OG Steve Avila
DT Keeanu Benton
EDGE Felix Anudike-Uzomah
EDGE Zach Harrison
LB SirVocea Dennis
CB Rejzohn Wright
7. Just “my guys”
These are the guys I love and feel are the most “sure” guys in this class, the guys I think have great upside and lower miss potentials:
Nolan Smith – Ignore the size, injury, and “lack of production” concerns, he has one of the best pressure rates in the past several years and is an elite run defender.
Christian Gonzalez – Just like 2022 when we all saw Sauce just look so much different than any other CB out there at the Combine, this year it was Gonzalez.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba – All I care about with receivers is separation and my god is he good there.
Marvin Mims – And again, Mims and I don’t care if others disagree… I think these types of stats can always be “fit” to make a comparison you want but there are just so many like this where Mims is in really, really good company
Power Five WRs with 7.0 YAC/R and a 0.50 1st/Target from out wide/inline since 2014 (min 95 opps)
– DeVonta Smith – CeeDee Lamb – Henry Ruggs – Marvin Mims
8. Guys I am most interested to see when and where they go
For various reasons, here are the guys I will be interested to see where they are drafted:
Tyree Wilson – I love Tyree, both David and I wrote articles on him. And I think he will be very good. But he is older (23) and was late breakout which is usually not a great thing. He has gotten a lot of love lately with many saying he could go to Houston at 2, but I think he could also be a guy that drops into the late teens.
Nolan Smith – Long stuck with an EDP around 30, he has risen especially after his Combine performance, but is still in the teens. I think he should be the second non-QB taken. He is my top guy for the Eagles to take but I have Detroit taking him at 6 in my “what would I do” mock. He’s going high.
Quentin Johnston – Started out as the clear WR1 but has plummeted recently, now with an EDP barely hanging on in the 1st round at 30. There are risks – he didn’t test or measure as well as people thought and his production is grouped into a handful of games. But with two-high defenses, the league is moving towards valuing YAC and there isn’t a better guy out there.
The TEs in aggregate – TE is not a good first round position to take, it is a “deep class”, and at least in my view, there is a lot of variation in the rankings. Mayer is widely viewed as TE1 but Darnell Washington is my TE1. Kincaid and Musgrave are great pass catchers but they have a mix of age and injury concerns.
The older guys, especially at premium positions – I think the draft is about raising your odds of success and history is not good for older guys especially at WR, CB, and EDGE. Some teams, whether they admit it or not, have age cutoffs that will just take them off their boards. Guys like Zay Flowers, Keion White, JPJ, and Tyree Wilson are all guys to watch tonight. Here is a dive into older player draft rates and performance in case you missed it: “How to think about older draft prospects”
The corners – CB is always drafted heavily and it will continue this year. But I think there is a bigger variation in who goes when and where as there are scheme-specific guys, older guys, and a big lack of clarity of rankings. David has a great post on CB rankings which differs from the current EDPs – guys like Tyrique Stevenson and Emmanuel Forbes could surprise on the upside and somebody like JPJ could go anywhere from the first CB taken to CB5.
I wrote on how much winning is impacted by drafting well – teams can of course succeed in the short-run through trades and free agency, but the league is way more driven by the financial side than most realize. It is why the “don’t draft RBs high” argument exists. These are the teams that I am most interested in seeing their picks tonight:
Jacksonville and Detroit – Both are on the upswing, both have drafted well, and both have weakening divisions. A good draft really helps both.
Atlanta – The Falcons are my top team that I think the league is too low on, with a win line of 7.5 in 2023. Their division is weak, they have drafted very well lately, and the pick at 8 is huge.
Minnesota – They have drafted terribly, with barely a good pick since Justin Jefferson. They don’t have good draft capital and they have to get somebody at 23.
Tennessee, Tampa Bay, and Arizona – All three are “blow it up” candidates and will be interesting to see which direction they go.
The Eagles at 30 – This is the fewest number of picks Howie has had over back-to-back years except for when they emptied the cupboards for Wentz. Everybody expects Howie to trade and I fully expect them to trade down from 30 (unless they trade down from 10).
Last year was a historic punter class with the most draft capital spent on punters in 20 years. Most see one or at best two punters being taken this year and I am taking the over on that. While it probably won’t be 2022 with the first one being taken at 130, I think there are four draftable punters this year – Michael Turk, Bryce Baringer, Brad Robbins, and Ethan Evans. We will have to wait until Sunday to see, but I’ll put my guess out there that punters start being taken around pick 150 with Turk being the first off the board (although would not be surprised if it were Baringer).
1. Panthers: QB Bryce Young, Alabama Greg: Yes, he’s short. But in today’s NFL, if I am a GM I’m never drafting a QB that isn’t mobile and can’t extend plays and create. I love Stroud also but just think Bryce edges him out – one of the most translatable stats from college to pro for QBs are their numbers under pressure and Bryce is much better than anybody in the class there.
2. Texans: QB CJ Stroud, Ohio State David: I do not love this for the Texans. I would probably draft Jalen Carter and go for a QB at pick 12. I asked a few Houston fans and one beat writer, and they all said, Stroud. So I am taking CJ.
3. Cardinals: DT Jalen Carter, UGA Greg: Arizona should trade down and they may, but I don’t think the market to trade down is as great as most think. Just take the best player in this draft.
4. Colts: QB Anthony Richardson, Florida David: He has a wide range of outcomes, but at 20 years old, his talent is hard to pass on. Richardson is very raw but, has a huge arm, and unbelievable athleticism. If given the time, and coaching, his ceiling is higher than any other QB in this draft. His floor is also one of the lowest.
5. Seahawks: EDGE Will Anderson, Alabama Greg: Seattle needs defense and just take Will here.
6. Lions: CB Christian Gonzalez, Oregon David: The debate about which corner is better has been answered by the Lions as they select Gonzalez over Witherspoon. Christian is patient, never rattled, and exudes an awareness and understanding of the game that allows him to anticipate routes and rarely gets beat. You can put him on the opposing team’s best receiver week in and week out by setting it and forgetting it. Greg: Ok, David took my guy… it’s on.
7. Raiders: EDGE Nolan Smith, UGA Greg: This will make Eagles fans mad, including me, but Nolan should go high. He could have gone higher than 7 actually and he is the player I am probably most “sure” on in this class. I’ve written so much about him no need to include any more here.
8. Falcons: OT Broderick Jones, UGA David: This will not be the most popular pick, but it is the right pick. He is another player who is considered to be raw but has the elite traits to build upon that could make him a 10-year mainstay on the O-line for the Falcons.
9. Bears: OT Anton Harrison, Oklahoma Greg: They need a RT more than a LT but they just need somebody on the line and Anton could be the best pro tackle in this class. Any team with a young QB I am going to surround with talent, either line or weapons.
10. Eagles: EDGE Tyree Wilson, Texas Tech David: Why is he such a great pick for the Eagles? See below.
11. Titans: WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ohio State Greg: I hate this pick for JSN’s sake, TEN is a mess and will need to find a QB so Jaxon could be relegated to an awful situation through a lot of his contract. But give Malik or whomever another weapon. David loves JSN as well so taking one of his guys is a bonus.
12. Texans: CB Devon Witherspoon, Illinois David: The second corner off the board plays a brand of football that should excite Houston. He is always around the ball, energetic, and willing to bring pain. He has cover skills like a DB, but brings blows onto ball carriers like a linebacker.
13. Packers: WR Zay Flowers, Boston College David: The Jordan Love begins in Green Bay and he needs a receiver to grow with. Enter Zay Flowers. With his breakaway speed and route fakes, he should be seen doing the Lambeau leap on highlight reels for years to come. Greg: Nothing better than once Rodgers leaves, the Packers actually take a receiver in the 1st round.
14. Patriots: OT Dawand Jones, Ohio State Greg: Massive with better mobility than most give him, he won’t be a popular pick for New England but I am higher on him than most.
15. Jets: OT/OG Peter Skoronski, Northwestern Greg: The Jets need everything on the line so regardless of if Skoronski is a OG (which I believe) or an OT, he has a place to play. And given he is pretty ready to play day one, he can help protect their new old QB.
16. Commanders: CB Deonte Banks, Maryland David: Washington is in desperate need of a corner, and they finally get their man to contend with the likes of AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, Cee Dee Lamb, etc in the WR heavy NFC East.
17. Steelers: OT Darnell Wright, Tennessee Greg: Could have have CB but don’t love who is left with David taking Deonte right before me. Invest around your young QB.
18. Lions: EDGE Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Kansas St Greg: I’m higher on Felix than consensus, but he is one of only a few in this class with a top pressure and run stop rate. Detroit getting Gonzalez and now Felix absolutely upgrades their defense.
19. Buccaneers: RB Bijan Robinson, Texas Greg: I’m against taking RBs high, but 3 reasons. First, TB is a mess, needs to blow everything up, and won’t be interesting so Bijan could be the one thing that makes them watchable. Second, David loves Bijan and I take another one of his guys. And third, I don’t like TB so will give them a pick that doesn’t make sense long-term.
20. Seahawks: CB Emmanuel Forbes, Miss State David: While undersized, Forbes is the best in class in creating turnovers, and in scoring. If he was not so light (168 lbs) he would not be at pick 20. You can gain weight, but you can’t teach instincts, Seattle is smart enough to know that too.
21. Chargers: OT Paris Johnson Jr, Ohio St David: It’s ridiculous he was still here at pick 21. Paris can come in and start at guard from day one, or develop into your long-term tackle. He is ready for battle right away and brings much needed protection to their franchise QB.
22. Ravens: WR Quentin Johnston, TCU Greg: A higher bust probability pick and they just signed OBJ, but he’s coming off ACL. Their WR room beyond OBJ is is Bateman who has not stayed healthy and Devin Duvernay. I see Quentin’s issues but I like him more than most.
23. Vikings: WR Jordan Addison, USC David: At 5’11 170lbs, some might say he can’t play certain spots, but the Vikings take the best receiver left that can create space and get open. His speed will be a problem, and playing alongside Justin Jefferson will only help him. I can remember a certain team passing a receiver thought to only be able to play certain spots. Ugh. It’s ironic that the player the Eagles took ahead of JJ is on the Vikings, and that their new draft pick could spell the end of his time in Minnesota.
24. Jaguars: CB Joey Porter Jr, Penn St David: The Jags need a corner and the highly adaptable JPJ falls right into their lap. Rated as one of the top 5 corners in the draft, he has shown an ability to stay with receivers in any break they make. He should solidify an already good defense.
25. Giants: LB Jack Campbell, Iowa David: One of the highest RAS scores of all time, Jack has a high floor and a high ceiling. The Giants love a great LB, and he will cause havoc in the NFC East for years. Pencil him in as a 3 down back and watch him disrupt the passing game and swallow up rushers for the next decade.
26. Cowboys: TE Darnell Washington, UGA Greg: As an Eagles fan, I would hate to see Dallas take Darnell. So he’s the pick. David: That’s just mean. Greg: What’s also mean is he’s a third guy that I know David (and I) love. What good are dueling mocks if you don’t snipe your friend?
27. Bills: WR Marvin Mims, Oklahoma Greg: Nobody will agree with Mims here but it’s my pick. Set a reminder on this for a year or two out and I bet Mims is a way better pro than several of the WRs taken ahead of him. This class is full of old and undersized WRs which both have really bad histories in the NFL.
28. Bengals: DT Mazi Smith, Michigan Greg: They have the luxury to just take a good player. They could use more depth on the interior.
29. Saints: DT Calijah Kancey, Pitt David: The Saints are shocked to see someone they had in the top ten of their board fall all the way down to 29. The room high-fives one another and feels a lot better about being fleeced out of pick ten by the Eagles.
30. Eagles: CB Julius Brents, Kansas St Greg: Brents wasn’t my first choice but the OTs, both Darnells, and any receiver worth taking here are all gone. But CB is still a position to invest in and Brents gives the Eagles their future at corner.
31. Chiefs: OT Jaelyn Duncan, Maryland David: With the receivers that Andy wanted long gone, he sticks to his core belief of building from the trenches and selects a team captain who is extremely quick, as athletic as any 306 lb that you can find, and checks off every box that Andy looks for in a tackle. Greg: We joke all the time about player age and how much David loves the old guys. Keeping count, that is four old guys David has drafted (Tyree, Zay, JPJ, and Duncan).
It’s been another great draft season and we appreciate everybody for the continued engagement and reads. Let us know which picks you love or hate.
Fly Eagles fly!
YaYa Diaby: If you don’t know who he is, you’re about to
I have written about YaYa Diaby (pronounced dee-AH-bee)all draft season.
I believe he has been vastly underrated, so let’s start there.
What does YaYa do that makes him stand out?
“I would just say my bend, and get off, and my versatility and just being able to just move and bend as a big guy”
And that’s just the beginning of what he’s bringing to an NFL team near you!
The Skills:
Spin move
A high motor that does not quit
Long and strong, balanced limbs
Violent and fast. How fast? Glad you asked!
20.8 MPH on the GPS.
YaYa is 6’3 263
Wields a pair of the most effective hands you will watch on film
Creates separation with arm extensions while punching
His first step is elite
Elite speed bursts
Elite lateral bursts
Above average bend for a man his size
Has the ability to release from his stance and get up the field, fast.
Can chase you down from behind
See a theme? He is fast and strong!
Watch this takeoff by @LouisvilleFB DL YaYa Diaby. 🔥
This is what you get with YaYa Diaby. The power to generate initial displacement. The strength to shed and climb blocks. And the athleticism to make this play in pursuit.
Impressive play from a rising 2023 NFL Draft prospect.
Diaby earned a (RAS) Relative Athletic Score of 9.86 out of 10
This ranks 24th out of 1629 defensive ends from 1987 through 2023 (98th percentile).
He definitely brought his “A” game
“That’s what I wanted. Coming into the combine, there were a lot of doubters saying that I was going to run slow, and I always believed in myself and always push myself to be the best, so I knew I was going to go out there and run what I ran.”
So where did YaYa and all of his talent come from?
High School:
YaYA lettered in football, basketball, wrestling, and track & field while attending North Clayton High School in College Park, Georgia.
During his senior year, he earned All-State and First-Team All-Region honors in football and led his team to the Class 4A playoffs.
YaYa was considered too thin by college scouts and did not receive any scholarships.
I have always had a fondness for JUCO (Junoir College) transfers who grind, play with passion, and love, and force their way to the next level.
Diaby was about to do that.
College:
YaYa attended Georgia Military College, where he played for 2 seasons collecting 77 tackles and 7 sacks.
Diaby had attracted the attention of Kansas State, West Virginia, Florida State, Tennessee, and the school he chose to go to, Lousiville.
2020 was his first season with the Cardinals.
He only played in 8 games due to injury and COVID-19 (though he was asymptomatic) but he managed to make some noise by contributing 18 tackles, including 2.5 TFLs.
In 2021, he started 12 of 13 games and he increased his production to 30 tackles, 3 TFL, and added 1.5 sacks.
He also had 22, of the all-important, pressures and 18 QB hurries.
The breakout 2022 season was coming.
The Louisville defense was one of the most disruptive in college football, and YaYa was a large part of the reason.
While playing in 12 games and 452 snaps, he recorded 37 tackles, 19 TFLs, 31 pressures, 6 QB hits, 9 sacks, and two fumble recoveries!
The increase in sacks led to him being ranked 2nd in the ACC.
He also had a streak of 8 games registering 1/2 or more sacks, which ranked 4th in FBS.
As he was collecting accolades on the field, his stock was rising up draft boards off of it.
The Draft:
Sometimes, as fans, we lose a bit of the human element.
We watch so many players on YouTube and Twitter and just see a clip here and there without knowing another large part of the evaluation process.
Their heart, passion, love for the game, and their will and drive to succeed.
Often we don’t know the player’s backstories, and we don’t see the sacrifice that goes into not only their journey but their families and friends who assist them on their path as well.
YaYa has made a point of recognizing them and acknowledging their contributions on his way to draft day and has explained why it means so much to him.
“I want it badly, not just for me, but for my mom. She’s done a lot for me growing up, and the sacrifices she had to make to be able to provide for me and my siblings. It’s not about me. It’s about the people who care about me, my family”
As exciting as the draft weekend is for NFL organizations and fans around the country, it is a day that the players and their loved ones are rewarded when their name is called. A day that most have dreamed of since the first time they touched a football.
YaYa has an idea of how it will feel once his number is called as he awaits draft day.
He also knows what he wants to do first.
“It’s going to be awesome, I’m just waiting on the draft day so I can hug my mom and make her proud that I did what I told her I was going to do.”
YaYa is most definitely making Mom proud, and everyone else too.
Good Luck to you!
Watch the YaYa Diaby experience.
As Always, Thank You for reading!
David
Follow YaYa @greatyaya4
Follow me @PHLEagleNews
Follow us @PhillyCvrCorner
Follow Greg @GregHartPA
4/25/23
The Final Absolute Superlative All Eagles 2023 NFL Mock Draft
Featuring:
An athletic freak for the defensive line, an equally athletic freak on the offensive side of the ball, a game-changer for the defensive backfield, and a DT who went to college at age 16.
And that’s just in the first 100 picks!
The Haul:
10 Nolan Smith Edge Georgia
The Eagles not only aren’t afraid to gamble on athleticism, they seemingly prefer it.
Nolan is one of the most athletic edge rushers in recent memory.
The Eagles have also had an up-close look at a player with a similar skill set for the past year.
Nolan and Reddick coming off the edge is a nightmare for any defensive coordinator.
Nolan Smith vs. Lukas Van Ness
Nolan has gotten a ton of love post Combine but the concern on his size by many is way overthought. He's one I would be most willing to bet on his NFL career pic.twitter.com/W3ZugPqvpF
The more I watch Nolan Smith, the more I like him and his fit within the Eagles’ scheme. These are some of the notes I took from watching him yesterday. pic.twitter.com/fUgv8ZwzUm
“I think the most important thing when you’re picking in the first round, certainly when you’re picking 10, is that you get a unique player”
Well, there just so happens to be a unicorn available at Tight End!
#UGA TE Darnell Washington makes it a habit to show off his athleticism in the open field, hurdling defensive backs at 6-7, 264, even if it doesn’t always work.
Plucks the football out of the air on vertical routes especially and can see him being a big red zone threat early on pic.twitter.com/go3hsuiolC
They were 5th-best in 12P rushing efficiency, but much of that was due to the fact that defenses didn’t care much about the 2nd TE’s receiving ability and exploited their lackluster run blocking. I think maximizing WR3 or TE2 would open up a rainbow bridge to offensive heaven.
.@TexasFootball has three senior IDL and right now the one carrying highest grade from NFL scouts is #98 Moro Ojomo. Great rep here showing range down LOS and hand strength to shed block for TFL. @MoroOjomo was very active last week vs. Alabama. 🧵2/3#TheDraftStartsInMOBILE™️ pic.twitter.com/4JObuJJxQM
He redshirted while a true freshman, appearing in three late-season games, including the conference championship.
Incredible.
140 Andrew Vorhees OG USC
The Eagles have proven to not be risk-averse in drafting a player with the intention of sitting a year whether it be due to injury or just a red-shirt year. Vorhees could be that player this year, and be a starting guard next season.
Andrew played OT in 2021, so he offers some versatility, but his future appears to be at guard.
Regardless, there is still a lot to like. I like how he climbs the pocket here and throws this pass where only his receiver can catch it. He has a nice understanding of keeping his eyes down field and having the arm strength to complete tight window passes. pic.twitter.com/tKHJSzNBnM
Standing 6’7 and weighing in at 302 lbs, Jake has the traits that Eagles O-line coach Jeff Stoutland normally relishes from a prospect.
Stoutland University could bring the best out of Witt, and he would be a perfect addition to develop and add to their aging offensive line.
This is an interesting one for sure. Watched Jake Witt a few weeks ago and he has some interesting developmental tools, could be a 7th round option if he’s still on the board late in the draft.pic.twitter.com/rzxaKv9Hd8https://t.co/1hDn3WBAH8
Top 2023 NFL Draft Prospect: Tyree Wilson, Texas Tech Red Raider
In 2022 I was writing about TX Tech WR Erik Ezukanma. I asked a few coaches and writers who cover the team who I should be paying attention to for the upcoming season. All of them suggested Tyree.
Not some or most.
Everyone did.
He was not remotely thought of as a top pick around the league at this time, but Texas Tech knew what they had, and what Tyree could become.
“There are two reputable NFL scouting groups who said if he duplicates what he did last year and adds to it, he could be projected as a mid-first round selection (in the NFL Draft).” Texas Tech HC Joey McGuire
Boy were they right.
Physically, Tyree was born to be an Eagle.
Standing 6’6 he boasts a ridiculous 86-inch wingspan.
To put that in perspective, Gannis is 7’3, 9 inches taller, and has an 87-inch wingspan.
I did it. I asked Tyree Wilson to show off his wingspan. Stretches the length of the NFL Scouting Combine banner behind him on the podium. 86”. @nflnetworkpic.twitter.com/Qog0vMlQ6f
Wilson is long, and tall, and uses all of those attributes to explode off the ball quickly.
Those long arms also generate power and force which he uses to
SWOOP at the Quarterback.
He also uses them to set the edge against the run.
His effort is non-stop and has been since he started playing.
High School
Tyree attended West Rusk High School where he played football for three seasons.
He filled the stat sheet with 11.5 sacks, 60 TFL (tackles for loss), and 249 total tackles.
His accomplishments earned him Class 3A second-team All-State selection by the Associated Press Sports Editor, first-team all-district, and District 9–3A Division-II Defensive MVP, just to name a few.
His play not only got the attention of local colleges but he was attracting national interest.
Before the start of his senior year, Tyree committed to play college football at Washington State.
He later decommitted and weighed his options which included more than 20 scholarship offers.
Offers from Houston, Florida, Kansas, Nebraska, Ole Miss, and in-state colleges Baylor, Texas, and TCU made the decision difficult, but he ultimately chose to stay in Texas and joined Texas A&M.
College:
Texas A&M
In 2019, as a freshman, Wilson played in 9 games but only played 132 snaps, totaling 7 tackles, 6 total pressures, 3 QB hurries, one QB hit, and 2 sacks on the season.
Frustrated, in 2020 he made the move to Lubbock Texas to play with the Texas Tech Red Raiders.
Texas Tech
Once again he only saw action in 9 games but he increased his snap total to 388, and he also increased his QB hurries to 15 and tallied 2 sacks.
2021 would be when his hard work started to translate to more playing time on the field, and his dominance in taking over a game became apparent.
Tyree played in 13 games totaling 605 snaps, and the extra play only made him stronger. He finished the year with 26 QB hurries and 6 sacks while developing into being a key part of the Red Raider defense.
His ascension was apparent as was his production and durability.
Those 605 snaps led all defensive linemen, according to PFF (pro football focus)
The outlook for the 2022 season was promising and brought with it a new Head Coach. Someone who had been watching and admiring Tyree from another Texas college the last couple of seasons.
Joey McGuire, a super fan!
During his time at Baylor, Joey had paid attention to Tyree’s meteoric rise on the field and to his body.
“When you see the biggest human being around here today, that is Tyree Wilson walking around the stadium. When he goes to the NFL Combine he will have one of the widest wingspans ever”
The excitement was realized on the field as Wilson played in 10 games increasing his QB hurries to 32 and his sack total to 8 on the season despite playing 67 fewer snaps.
More production per snap coupled with year-over-year improvement has teams salivating to see how much better he can be and for a chance to draft him.
On to the Show
Tyree is expected to be a top-10 selection in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Attributes:
Above average acceleration
Off-edge burst is elite
Off-edge bend is above average
Strong, powerful core
Versatile
Instinctive
Locates the ball and attacks it
Rotated inside to the 3 tech, again a great fit as Philly loves to do this
If there is a weakness, it’s that it is hard for him to get low due to his hulking size
From @EJSmith94 and I: One of the three prospects the Eagles could select at #10 is #TexasTech EDGE Tyree Wilson, who has an imposing presence and plays heavy hands.
My favorite aspect of his game is creating pressure from 4i and 3 tech alignments.
2022: First-team All-American (The Athletic, FWAA)
2022: Second-team All-American (AP)
2022: First-team All-Big 12 (AP)
2022: Led Big 12 in tackles for loss (14.5)
2022: Second in Big 12 in sacks (7.0)
Texas Tech’s first first-team All-American since 2018
FBS Rank vs Qualified Edge Rushers:
0.100 points saved per rush (T-3rd)
0.064 points above average per play (3rd)
23.32 total points saved (4th)
15.07 total points above average (2nd)
As Always, Thank You for reading!
Follow Him @tyreewilson77
Follow me @PHLEagleNews
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Follow Greg @GregHartPA
David
4/22/23
Are We Spoiled On Wide Receivers? A Look at Good and Bad Draft Classes
To answer it, yes, we have absolutely become spoiled with the recent receiver classes. And we are probably overvaluing this class as it comes back to Earth (or in stats speak, it reverts to the mean…)
Every year, it is pretty consistent that there are right around 50 players in the draft that are “above average”. These are defined as 60th percentile or above players – players like Kyzir White, Courtland Sutton, C.J. Gardner-Johnson, and Kenny Golladay. Teams always hope for the superstars with top picks, but these are players that are the minimum expectation of a top pick.
And receivers each draft have historically made up around five of these top 50 players. Until 2019.
The 2019-2022 receiver bull market
Over a 4-year period starting in 2019, teams feasted on receivers at the top of the draft. Since 2019, 28 receivers have been 60th percentile players with 17 of them being 80th percentile players.
Below shows the top receivers drafted between 2019-2022 by their value:
And it was almost like fishing with hand grenades – of the 19 first rounders selected, 11 – or almost 60% – were 80th percentile or better with a few more that will probably get added to the list like Jameson Williams and Treylon Burks.
There were really only three busts – Henry Ruggs, N’Keal Harry, and unfortunately our own Jalen Reagor. It was really hard to miss on a WR recently.
The 2010-2018 receiver drafts weren’t nearly as good
This type of hit rate is unheard of. From 2010 to 2018, 32 receivers were taken in the 1st round with “only” 10 – or just over 30% – of them being 80th percentile players. This includes players like Amari Cooper, Brandin Cooks, Julio Jones, and OBJ.
And 15 of the 32 first rounders from 2010-2018 were complete misses – players like Kevin White and Josh Doctson and Justin Blackmon. This period saw half the superstar rate and almost three times the miss rate as the 2019-2022 period.
Where receivers historically have been around 5 of the top 50 players, they almost doubled that amount in recent years.
Will the 2023 class continue the bull market?
Below are the WRs in this class that all have expected draft positions (EDPs) within the top 100 two weeks before the draft:
I included their heights and weights because this is a small class – three are 5’9″ or below and five are below 180 pounds. There is a lot to like with Zay Flowers and Tank Dell and Josh Downs but they are outliers that don’t have a lot of NFL comps that have hit.
Below shows this – the first chart shows all receivers drafted by height and weight with the top 60th percentile players in red and players below 60th percentile in blue. The next chart shows only the top 60th percentile players.
Top receivers below 5’10” and 180 pounds are rare.
Of 23 WRs under 5’10”, there is only 1 that is a top 60th percentile player – Baltimore’s Marquise Brown, drafted with the 25th pick in 2019 (84th percentile)
On average, WRs under 5’10” are 32nd percentile players in the NFL
WRs under 180 pounds are 38th percentile players on average
Below is the full breakdown of receivers by height and round since 2018, showing the number drafted and their NFL value percentile:
There is a clear dividing line at 5’10”. Shorter than that, few are drafted – 23 of 285, or 8% of all WRs drafted – and fewer actually succeed.
Conversely, almost a third (81 of 263) of WRs 5’10” or above are 60th percentile players or better. And drafting these receivers high has paid off – day 1 and day 2 receivers 5’10” or over have averaged 64th percentile in the NFL.
2023 may look more like the 2017 WR class
So back to the original question – have we become spoiled on receivers with the past few drafts? And what could 2023 look like?
My opinion? I think we are likely to see a return to a year like 2017. That year saw:
6 WRs in the top 50 players with half of them not being top drafted guys (Cooper Kupp, Chris Godwin, and Kenny Golladay)
A greater number of shorter prospects in that class, with 3 players at 5’8″, none of which were top value players
It’s always risky predicting receiver may not be drafted heavily given the premium put on the position and rising free agency costs. And numbers like height and weight aren’t death sentences for players – it isn’t long ago many were saying DeVonta couldn’t survive in the NFL. But there is a reason there aren’t a lot of these outliers in the league.
There is so much to like on the guys in this class, but it is nowhere near the type of class we have seen recently and there are risks with each. We could all look back on these guys as “of course that pick didn’t work out because of…”:
Addison is taller but slight and has had trouble with press
Zay is smaller and catch radius shows up as an issue
Downs and Dell are both really small and there isn’t a top player drafted the last 5 years their size that has done well, so you are expecting them to be a big outlier
And a lot of the bigger guys like Tillman, Rice, and Mingo are interesting but have issues separating that could hold them back (I will forever remain scarred from JJAW on WRs that don’t separate)
AT Perry, Tillman, Zay, and Rashee are all 23 years old and Dell will turn 24 during his rookie season – the history of 23 and over receivers isn’t great
Who would I take in this class?
There are always risks with any pick, but the range of outcomes is greater on more of these guys this year than in past years. Who do I like?
The top-10 worthy guy: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
The only guy worthy of a top 10-pick in this class compared to past years. We are all going to look dumb passing on him when Wilson and Olave and Stroud all say he was the best receiver there…
Garrett Wilson just posted a top-ten season ever for a rookie WR in a ton of metrics. Chris Olave had a fantastic rookie year, as well.
C.J. Stroud said that Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the best route-runner he’s ever played with.
The guy that will be the best from outside R1: Marvin Mims
Broke out young, has the size and speed, is tough, 2nd best YAC/rec in this class, a top-10 Y/RR. He’s a guy I would take much higher than where most have him and think he will be a top-32 player from this class. People think I’m crazy but he’s my WR2. Everybody posts the clip where he caught the pass off the CB’s back, but this is one of my favorites – his route crispness looks like JSN’s at times.
This ROUTE by Marvin Mims 😳
Many scouts believe Mims has “secured” himself as a day two pick.
A guy not enough are talking about, he has borderline size but his speed and route running are great and could end up one of the best value picks if he does go R3. Continuing the theme, here’s a clip where he shows nasty route-running with a great outside fake to gain separation:
The ball was overthrown in the endzone, but look how easily Tyler Scott gains separation on this route. Gets the defender to bite on the jab-step.
One that I may regret… A lot of people I respect question Johnston and the comps to Kevin White are rampant. His agility numbers weren’t good but when I watch, I see surprising route cripsness for his size. He brings crazy YAC value and is good against zone. Even against UGA when he had a catch for 3 yards, I thought he looked much better than people gave him credit for (with Duggan under pressure a silly 55% of snaps):
Quentin Johnston – WR – TCU
Has fallen in recent weeks.
Don't get it
– Hip fluidity at his size is special – The release package is already there – Room to grow as a route runner but nothing is physically stopping him from being very good there.
We can set a reminder and check back to see how right or wrong all of this is – I’m sure I will be wrong somewhere. But it isn’t wise to totally ignore history on what translates to the NFL.
During the 2011 NFL Draft, the Eagles traded back in the 3rd to acquire a 6th-round pick.
The 3rd round pick was Curtis Marsh, but the 6th round pick is SB winner and future Hall of Famer Jason Kelce.
Though Howie may not have had full autonomy in 2011, when you draft a Hall of Famer in the sixth round (currently only one 6th round pick in the NFL HOF) you get recognized as the best.
AJ Brown
The Eagles made a 2022 draft night deal with Tennesse, sending a 1st and a 3rd round pick, plus a newly negotiated $25 million per year average deal, to the Titans for all-world WR, A.J. Brown
He ran his way into the record book and the Super Bowl during his first year. This is an all-time great receiver, and trade for the Eagles.
The Titans traded Brown to the Eagles for the Nos.18 and 101 overall picks in the 2022 draft
The Eagles went from 13 to 2 in the 2016 draft to select North Dakota St QB, Carons Wentz.
The Birds dealt Kiko Alonso and Byron Maxwell to the Dolphins to get to pick 8 and then traded pick 8, a 3rd-rounder, a 4th-rounder, and the following year’s first-round pick to the Browns for 2nd overall pick.
Wentz had an (almost) MVP season in 2017 and was a big part of the reason they won their first-ever Super Bowl.
1st round pick
The Eagles shocked most of the fan base in 2021 by trading their own pick (6th overall) to the Dolphins for the 12th pick. This assured the Eagles wouldn’t get either Jamarr Chase or Kyle Pitts who most thought would be there at 6.
Howie, however, did not believe that. And Howie was right.
The Eagles net DeVonta Smith and the Dolphins’ first-round pick which they used to trade up for Jordan Davis in 2022.
Kelly traded for him, and Howie traded him away. This is on the list for going away.
The Vikings saw themselves as SB contenders and paid the Eagles the price of a 1st rd pick.
Carson Wentz
The first time was to be the franchise Quarterback, this time, to go away so Jalen Hurts could take over.
Carson was dealt to the Colts.
Howie got one MVP-caliber season(2017), a 2021 third, and a first-round pick back in 2022 for Wentz.
The Eagles traded him to the Colts for a 2021 3rd round pick and what eventually became a 2022 1st-round pick. A year later the Colts traded Wentz to the Commanders.
DeVonta Smith
The Eagles entered the 2021 draft wanting to address WR, but they knew the Giants were too.
Since the Giants drafted 11th and the Eagles drafted 12th, they had to make move.
DeVonta has been worth the extra draft capital it took to leapfrog NYG.
The Eagles received the 10th pick in the 2021 NFL Draft from the Dallas Cowboys in exchange for pick 12 and a third-round pick (84)
Big Play Slay
Slay was part a large part of the 2022 Eagles having the best pass defense in the NFL.
He has now been extended through the 2025 season.
This has the potential to go down as one of the all-time great Eagle trades.
The Eagles acquired cornerback Darius Slay in a trade with the Detroit Lions. Philadelphia traded a third-round pick (85) and a fifth-round pick
CJ played a large role in solidifying the position, creating turnovers, and bringing an energy that helped carry the Eagles all the way to the Super Bowl.
The Eagles received Gardner-Johnson and the Saints’ 2025 seventh-round draft pick for a 2023 fifth-round draft pick and the latter of their two sixth-round draft picks in 2024
*Would have gone much higher on the list had he stayed with the Eagles.
The Eagles’ search for a linebacker finally ended with the addition of Ryans.
He had over 100 tackles his first year and became an onfield coach affectionally called “Mufasa” by then Eagles Head Coach Chip Kelly
DeMeco Ryans was dealt to Philadelphia from Houston for a 2012 fourth-round draft pick and a swap of third-round choices.
The Eagles used that 3rd round pick to select Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles.
It’s a home run for the Eagles.
As Always, Thank You for reading!
Follow me @PHLEagleNews
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David
4/13/23
**Whoever made the Howie pic, please tag yourself. It’s brilliant
Drafting Well and Winning: Which Teams are Set Up for Success and Who Needs to Have a Good Draft
It’s not a surprise that drafting well has a big impact on a team’s long-term success. It isn’t the only thing – if you don’t have at least a win-with quarterback, almost nothing else matters. And as the Rams showed, teams can succeed on free agency and trades for some amount of time, but adding veterans without drafting well eventually catches up.
With the salary cap, no matter how much people claim “the cap doesn’t matter”, teams have to be able to continue to add cheap, young talent. Below shows the impact of drafting well or poorly on the go-forward three-year win percentage. Even a single good (or bad) draft has a big impact on winning and multiple drafts in a row have an even bigger impact.
Draft Performance
3-year win % change following single draft
3-year win % change following 2 or more drafts
Really good draft: 90th percentile draft
13.0%
20.3%
Good draft: 75th percentile draft
7.9%
9.8%
Bad draft: 25th percentile draft
-10.6%
-11.5%
Really bad draft: 10th percentile draft
-11.3%
-18.8%
The above uses Pro Football Reference’s Approximate Value (AV) as a measure of draft value and compares to the league average draft to define “good” or “bad” drafts. If you want more detail on the data behind this, go to my insights page on draft value here: “Draft performance and winning“
But consistently drafting well is hard. A quarter of teams can beat the league average 2 years in a row but that falls to 12% that can do it 3 years in a row. Several years ago the Colts and Saints were lauded as top drafters, but that was short-lived for both.
The Eagles are currently in a really good drafting period with back-to-back strong drafts in 2020 and 2021 (2022 could end up being a third but because most of the picks didn’t play much, it has low value after the rookie season). And their 2009-2013 stretch was one of the better stretches by any team with 5 consecutive years beating the league average.
The chart below for the Eagles draft history – the blue bars are their actual drafted value and the red line is league average value. Any time the blue bars are above the black line, they outperformed the league.
Eagles historical draft performance
(We have more readers from other teams and if you want to see your team’s draft performance, you can see it here: Draft Performance Data)
Looking back at 2022
If you go back to the start of last season, here’s where every team sat. The x-axis is their prior 3-year draft value and the y-axis is their prior season (2021) win percentage. Teams whose win percentage dropped materially in 2022 are in red and teams who improved are in green.
To make it simple, teams in the top left are probably on borrowed time, holding a good win percentage but not drafting well. Conversely, teams in the bottom right could be poised for a positive surprise.
Not shocking, draft value tells a lot, but not all, of the story. Teams like Jacksonville, Detroit, and the Giants were pretty bad teams that had drafted well and improved into 2022. Jacksonville obviously got their QB and upgraded from a disastrous coach, but they still drafted well.
On the other side, New Orleans, as mentioned above, once heralded as a top drafting team, hadn’t had a good draft since 2017 and it caught up to them, no matter how much they kept trying to keep it together. Here is the Saints draft value to show how poorly they drafted after 2017, both underperforming the league average and their own expected draft value:
Saints historical draft value performance
The Titans came back to Earth and the Rams, fresh off their Super Bowl win with their “f*** the picks” approach, were a team on borrowed time that came due in 2022. Here is the same chart for the Rams which shows a 3-year period where they drafted poorly with their limited capital.
Rams historical draft performance
There are, of course, some outliers.
Tampa and Denver drafted relatively well but both had collapses at the most important position, quarterback. The Raiders had an awful 2022 draft and also had QB issues with Carr not finishing the season.
And on the positive side, both Seattle and the Jets had really good 2022 drafts that improved their fortunes. Seattle not only had the best 2022 draft but the best value drafts over the past 5 years. This reinforces the data above of how even a single really good draft can make a material impact.
How does 2023 look?
Below is the same draft value vs. win percentage chart from above but here the colors denote the 2023 draft capital each team has. Teams in the top third of the league in draft capital are in green and teams in the bottom third are in red.
There are a handful of interesting things that stand out:
The rich get richer?
The two Super Bowl teams, Philly and Kansas City, are the only two that aren’t near the bottom of the league in 2023 draft capital. Philly’ has t’s 2020 and 2021 classes were the 3rd best in the league and can expect a further bump from the 2022 class as Nakobe Dean and Cam Jurgens barely played.
The Chiefs have the bounty from the Tyreek Hill trade and have been the league’s most efficient drafting team over the past 3 years – despite being 20th in the league in draft capital, they have attained the 3rd most draft value. Both teams can stay atop the league if they continue to hit with impact players in this year’s draft.
The optimism is deserved…
Jacksonville and Detroit aren’t really sleepers anymore as both are expected to take a big step up this year. Both have benefited from a lot of draft capital but have both drafted very well – Detroit is 6th in draft value attained over the past three years and Jacksonville is 4th. And both likely have weakening divisions that they should be able to feast on.
My favorite team to exceed
The Falcons get forgotten by many. Expectations are still low for 2023 and not saying they will win the division, but I’d be shocked if they don’t outperform. They have had back-to-back top drafts and Desmond Ridder, if even decent, should be an upgrade over what they got last year. They had a good free agency, their line is improved, and add in what is projected to be one of the easiest schedules and they are my favorite team to outperform in 2023. With good draft capital including the 8th pick, they can really improve this year.
Good teams that REALLY need a good draft
There are always teams that drop off and surprise. Minnesota and Buffalo are two good teams that really need a good offseason to prevent being one of them. Neither has good draft capital this year (Buffalo is 26th in the league and Minnesota is 30th) and both are projected to have two of the hardest schedules in the league.
To be clear, I am not saying the Bills need to draft well or they are going to collapse in 2023. They have a great roster, a top of the league QB, and have had a good offseason. But they have not drafted well over the past three years, 23rd in the league in draft value with really only Gregory Rousseau, Gabriel Davis, and Spencer Brown making any impact out of their 23 picks made. Looking ahead, they are near the bottom of the league in projected cap space in 2024 and Allen will need to be restructured to lower his massive cap hit. To the point of this entire article, you cannot succeed forever without drafting well and the Bills could use some hits this year.
On the other hand, Minnesota fans should worry. The Vikings have barely had a good pick since Justin Jefferson, lost a lot more than they added in free agency especially on defense and in the secondary, and they had a better record than their play implied last year.
And an opportunity to jump?
Like the drop-off candidates above, there are the opposites that surprise to the upside. The Raiders, Bears, and Colts are three that stand out. Las Vegas, long rightly mocked for poor drafts, have a good opportunity to be an upside surprise. Jimmy G may not excite you but a lot of teams are worse off at QB than him. They have holes but Dave Ziegler is in his 2nd year with the 3rd most draft capital in the league. They really have to hit.
The Bears have suffered from lack of draft capital after the trade-up for Justin Fields but they have drafted much better than people realize, beating league average the last 3 years even though they had less-than-average draft capital. With the 5th most draft capital this year, a really good free agency, and what I think is a franchise QB, this is their chance to make a jump.
I’m not saying the Colts are going to be good, they lost a lot in free agency and are thin at receiver and the secondary which isn’t a good place to be. But they could surprise vs. low expectations. So much for the Colts swings on what their move is at QB, but like the Bears, after two years of lacking draft capital, they now have the 8th most in the league with nine picks including picks 4 and 35. They must draft well this year. If they do, add in an easier schedule, new coach, and hopefully some improved luck (they were 4-7 in one-score games last year) and they could surprise a bit.
It’s going to be tough…
Tennessee got some value in the draft last year but is still near the bottom of the league over both the last 3 and 5 years in draft value. With lots of roster holes, more losses in free agency than gains, and few resources, things aren’t looking good. Talk of them being open to a rebuild or potentially trading up for a QB make their situation even murkier.
Cleveland gave up so much for Deshaun Watson but has also underperformed in the draft 4 of the last 5 years. Their first pick is pick 74 this year where the chance of an impact player isn’t great. They still have a solid roster and will have Deshaun for a full year, who didn’t play to expectations when he did play last year. It would be ironic if Deshaun left the Texans to just join… the northern Texans…
If you are interested in digging into this data deeper, there is an interactive page where you can see every team’s historical draft performance vs. winning here.
