Eagles

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Two Throws in the Dallas Game Show How Elite Jalen Hurts Is
Date: 11/08/23
There were two throws Hurts made Sunday that I could not wait to dig into. And I found something even more impressive than I expected - Hurts's ability to hit important throws is already at an all-time level. Read more
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The Predictable, Puzzling Eagles 2023 Red Zone Offense: Did It Turn A Corner?
Date: 10/28/23
It requires no convincing that the Eagles red zone offense has been a huge issue this year. But how bad and why exactly? And did the Miami game show us that it has turned? Read more
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We All Love Jake Elliott But He's Even Better Than You May Think
Date: 10/05/23
Jake Elliott is quickly becoming recognized as one of the league's best kickers. But I dug in a bit more - he is probably better, and more clutch, than all of us realize. Read more
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Forget the Tush-Push, This Eagles Team Doesn't Let Offenses Back on the Field
Date: 09/28/23
We saw the Eagles chew up the final 9 minutes of the game against Tampa Bay, crushing any hope of a any comeback. But that is becoming common for this team, which is leading long 4th quarter drives at a historic rate. Read more
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The Eagles Will Start with a Win: A Look at My Favorite Teams to Out and Under Perform in 2023
Date: 09/07/23
Spoiler: the Patriots are one of my top teams to underperform this season which bodes well for the Eagles opener. A look at who else should out and under perform. Read more
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The Philadelphia Eagles Core Four, One Last Ride
Date: 09/07/23
I’m thankful to be with these guys. I know how much it means to them. They don’t have to say anything." Read more
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Our Biggest Worry is the Punter... Another Eagles "Over" for 2023
Date: 08/29/23
I'm back with a win projection model for the 2023 Eagles. Expectations are very high but expect another "over" as the team's biggest issue is who punts. Read more
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The Super Bowl Champion, Playoff Teams, and MVPs of the 2023 Season are Revealed!
Date: 08/25/23
Could two different brothers become the second siblings to play against one another in the SB a year after the first ones did? Read more
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Can the Eagles Pass Rush Do What Few Have Done?
Date: 08/20/23
A look at the best pass rushing units and why it is hard to repeat. What we can learn from these units and what does it mean for the Eagles 2023 defensive line. Read more
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The Best Philadelphia Eagles To Draft On Your Fantasy Football Team
Date: 08/10/23
Last year his ADP was in the late to mid-sixties, while being ranked between the 7–10th fantasy QB.  Read more
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Nolan Smith, "I don't like being the nail, I like being the hammer!"
Date: 07/25/23
"Most people know me as The Mentor, but I was a follower & a great listener for all those years" ~Nolan Smith Read more
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The Hurts Effect
Date: 07/24/23
When is the last time the Eagles had a player that was so beloved and more importantly, believed in, that hardly any player on the team wanted to leave? Read more
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2023 Philadelphia Eagles Pre Camp 53-man Roster Projection
Date: 07/17/23
Look for Mekhi Garner, Jadon Haselwood, and Ben VanSumeren all making a strong case to be included on the initial 53. Read more
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The 10 Best Corners in Philadelphia Eagles History
Date: 07/07/23
The top 5 corners of the past 40 years in Eagle’s history were all drafted in the first 2 rounds Read more
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10 Foretellings The Crystal Ball Has Revealed For The Eagles’ 2023 Season
Date: 06/28/23
The Eagles haven’t had a defensive rookie of the year since Reggie White in 1987. Is 2023 the year? The Crystal Ball believes it to be so. Read more

Two Throws in the Dallas Game Show How Elite Jalen Hurts Is

There were two throws against Dallas that really stuck with me.

First, on the opening drive, the Eagles show their aggressiveness, going for it on 4th down for the second time on that drive. On 4th and 3 at the Dallas 27 – well within Jake Elliott‘s range – Jalen Hurts with DeVonta separating at the sticks instead hits Dallas Goedert on a 12-yard pass for a toe-tap conversion on the sideline.

Later, with the Eagles down 3 to the Cowboys after the half, Philly came out in the 3rd quarter and methodically drove to the Dallas 29 yardline. This time Hurts stood in the pocket on 1st down and put a perfect, un-defendable pass to DeVonta Smith against the sideline in the endzone to put the Eagles ahead for good.

Sitting there, eating Tums like most of Philly, I couldn’t wait to look at the advanced stats on these two passes because I knew both would stand out. And they did.

Goedert’s potentially game-changing 4th down reception

EPA +3.117 and CPOE +52.5%

The pass to Goedert was Hurts’ 6th most valuable non-scoring throw as measured by EPA this season (touchdowns will almost always have a higher EPA than non-scoring plays because they, well, score). And as great as advanced stats are, EPA doesn’t really capture the importance of that play.

Either the Eagles convert and continue a drive (which led to a touchdown on the next play) or squander an opportunity and hand the ball back to their primary divisional threat. In a game we knew was going to be a dogfight, we saw what missed opportunities meant as the Cowboys failing to convert at the goaline probably lost them the game.

And, more importantly, this play shows the confidence that Sirianni has in the team, going against what we all hear every commentator say about “you gotta take the points here”. Small advantages make a difference over the season and the Eagles aggressiveness is winning them games.

DeVonta’s improbable touchdown reception

EPA +2.699 and CPOE +69.5%

Once I saw this throw, I knew this was going to have a really low expected completion, and it did. Depending on which stat you like, this pass had between a 17% expected completion rate (NextGen stats) and 30% (CPOE). NextGen’s stat uses tracking data above publicly available data, probably making it more accurate.

Regardless, this pass was really unlikely to be completed. It was the highest CPOE pass of that game and 6th best in week 9. In fact, out of over 10,000 passes this season, this throw had the 76th best completion percentage over expected.

Then I took a deeper look into Hurts…

I knew both of these passes in particular were going to stand out in the Dallas game. But I also knew these aren’t outliers for Hurts, especially this season.

Hurts has the highest rate of top 1 percentile CPOE passes since 2000

I started digging into this year and found Hurts has the most top 1 percentile CPOE passes this year with 10 at the midpoint. Sam Howell is next closest with only 6. And last year, only Josh Allen had more with 12 but did so in twice as many pass attempts.

Then I went back to 2015 and, same, Hurts has the top rate. And then I went back to 2000 and, yep, Hurts at 2.4% has the highest percentage of top CPOE throws of any QB with at least 700 career pass attempts.

And the gap between him and the rest of the crowd is sizable as shown above.

Hurts is on pace to be one of the best ever at “important” throws

And if you look at the “most important” throws, the ones that are both highly valuable and have a tough expected completion rate – like the two from the Dallas game above – Hurts is on pace to be one of the best ever.

Below shows the top 20 QBs on how passes they have that were both top 5th percentile EPA and top 5th percentile CPOE completions (limited to QBs with at least 2,000 career attempts except I included Hurts, Lamar Jackson, and Tua Tagovailoa to show their current pace). Hurts is second to Russ with 4.21% of his throws being important throws.

RankQBAttemptsTop EPA+CPOE Percentile PassesTop EPA+CPOE Percentile Pass Rate
1R.Wilson56432684.75%
2J.Hurts1379584.21%
3A.Rodgers81823123.81%
4P.Rivers82402883.50%
5T.Romo44191423.21%
6J.Cutler49001573.20%
7N.Foles2241713.17%
8J.Allen3036943.10%
9A.Luck35541093.07%
10L.Jackson1960603.06%
11D.Watson2106632.99%
12P.Manning56761692.98%
13B.Roethlisberger83922482.96%
14K.Cousins51701512.92%
15P.Mahomes36771062.88%
16D.Prescott36881042.82%
17J.Winston2790782.80%
18C.Palmer53731502.79%
19T.Tagovailoa1340372.76%
20J.Herbert2224612.74%

It’s amazing not only how far Hurts has come, but the confidence the team and all of us have in him.

Another play that stuck out in the Dallas game was in their second-to-last drive of the game when a lot of us thought they were just going to burn 6 minutes off the clock and end the game. On 3rd and 3, Hurts attempted a 23 yard pass to A.J. Brown that was off target, forcing the Eagles to punt and give the ball back to Dallas in what could have been their winning drive.

We all criticized that pass attempt – myself included. And at that point in the game, a pass with a 40% expected completion percentage wasn’t the right play. But Hurts hits these passes at a really high rate and, in aggregate, the Eagles are better off for it.

The Predictable, Puzzling Eagles 2023 Red Zone Offense: Did It Turn A Corner?

For my own mental health, I generally resist tweeting during a game but after an impressive opening drive against Miami, their three same-old-same-old play calls once they reached the red zone got me:

After the Hurts run vs. a heavy box for -2 yards, it was Gainwell (of course) for a yard and a designed Hurts draw on 3rd down from the 9 yard line. And the Eagles had to settle for a field goal again…

But this may have marked the low point for this red zone offense.

On their next four red zone drives, the Eagles scored four touchdowns, making week 7 their best red zone showing of the season. And maybe it began to answer the biggest question with the “if this team can put together a complete game…” pondering.

How bad has the Eagles red zone offense been?

Excluding end of game kneels, in 26 red zone drives this season, the Eagles have settled for a field goal attempt 10 times and scored a touchdown 14 times (with twice turning over on downs). Scoring only 63% of possible points, this is their lowest red zone success rate since at least 2015 and good for 20th in the league this year.

Even their 2020 team – a bottom four offense with Jack Driscoll, Nate Herbig, and Matt Pryor collectively starting 36 games on the line – was more successful in the red zone than this team.

Their two Super Bowl teams? Those teams made the most of their red zone trips, finishing top 3 in the league and scoring well above 70% of total possible points.

So, yeah, your eyes aren’t lying, the 2023 Eagles red zone offense has been bad. And it, along with more turnovers, is the primary reason every game has felt like such an effort to win.

Red zone predictability

The Eagles have been one of the most predictable play calling teams within the red zone this season.

The below shows for both red zone and non-red zone plays, how often teams pass when they are expected to pass (expected pass over 60%) and run when the are expected to run (expected pass less than 40%). Circle size is red zone success rate (larger circle is higher success).

Behind only the Browns and Colts, the Eagles are one of the teams that are most predictable (run in run situations, pass in pass situations) inside the red zone.

This Eagles team has been great taking what the defense gives it, but for some reason, this changes inside the 20.

Conceding, low success rate runs

Another “obvious to all of us” part of their red zone offense is running in really inexplicable situations. In the first drive against Miami, Hurts ran on 3rd and goal from the 9… right after Gainwell went for 1 yard on 2nd and 10.

Six times the Eagles have rushed on 3rd down with 8 or more yards to go with four of these being from inside the 10 yard line, basically conceding to take the field goal.

The Eagles rush in obvious passing situations in the red zone at the 8th highest rate in the league. Below shows how many times teams have rushed in obvious passing situations vs. their red zone scoring rate (an aside, but what the heck are the Giants doing this year…?).

Personnel choices and execution

Another thing that is obvious – designed Hurts runs and too much Gainwell, both of which have really been struggling this year.

The Eagles, who run the ball on 71% of red zone plays, primarily use Hurts and Gainwell inside the 20. I’m not quite as negative on Gainwell as most – last year he had a 41% success rate in the red zone and should have some positive reversion. But still, yeah, use D’Andre Swift more here as he is just a different level of rusher.

Non-Red ZoneRed Zone
RusherAttemptsSuccess RateAvg YdsLeague Rank Success RateAttemptsSuccess RateAvg Yds
D.Swift8648.8%5.581566.7%3.0
J.Hurts4961.2%4.8122536.0%1.6
K.Gainwell3336.4%3.7681618.8%2.2
B.Scott333.3%7.4n/a10.0%-7.0

Hurts’ numbers are worse than they appear and a bigger issue – take out the four Brotherly Shove touchdowns and Hurts has a 25% success rate and is averaging only 1.9 yards per run vs. a 68% success rate and 4.3 yard average last season. Maybe its partly due to his injury, but if that is the case, even more reason to choose differently (Swift).

On the passing side, there was early outrage on a Stoll target, but the issue is simply more on execution and lack of passing:

  • Pass on only 29% of red zone plays – 20th in the NFL
  • 50% red zone completion rate (13 of 26) – 20th in NFL
  • 36% success rate – 19th in NFL
  • -0.013 EPA/pass – 24th in NFL

Did their red zone offense turn a corner against Miami?

After the infuriating first drive with three straight runs, two into a heavy box, the Eagles looked like a totally different team on their next red zone drives.

Drive 2: D’Andre Swift dances around for 1 from the 20, then with Miami sending seven rushers, a screen to Dallas Goedert goes for 19 yards and a touchdown.

Drive 3: This was the reversed A.J. Brown touchdown where the Eagles were spotted on the 1 and Hurts pushed it in.

Drive 4: From the 14, Eagles throw on 1st down with a 5-yard pass to A.J. which he scores on after making two Dolphins miss tackles.

Drive 5: Starting from the 8, Gainwell with back to back runs for a touchdown.

It’s only a few drives, but Brian Johnson and the Eagles used more passing, no designed Hurts runs, and Gainwell had a couple good runs.

This roster is too good to stay one of the worst teams in the league in the red zone. Things that make no sense to be this bad rarely stay this bad through a full season – hopefully the improvements seen in the Miami game are here to stay.

Go Birds!

Thanks for reading and make sure to follow us at @PHLEagleNews, @greghartpa, and @PhillyCvrCorner

We All Love Jake Elliott But He’s Even Better Than You May Think

Death, taxes, the Brotherly Shove, me wanting to draft a punter, and Jake Elliott‘s late-game kicks. And I really think on that list only death is truly as certain as Jake.

There was a lot of back-and-forth (and anger) this past week on “success rate”, which Jalen Hurts currently ranks 22nd in the league. The analytics community defines “success” as plays with a positive Expected Points Added (EPA). EPA uses historical scoring data based on down, distance, and field position to say what expected scoring should be from any game situation. Over simplifying, a play that gets you closer to scoring than the historical average play will have a positive EPA. A QB’s success rate is purely the percentage of their plays that had a positive EPA.

I posted an example of this from the final overtime series in the Commanders game. On 2nd-and-6 from Washington’s 34 yardline, the Eagles were already within field goal range. The grounding call on Hurts changed that quickly, pushing them back to 3rd-and-17 from the 45 which would have been a 62-yard field goal to try to win the game, one yard further than Jake Elliott‘s career long. Hurts next hit DeVonta Smith for 9 yards to get to 4th down from the 36 yardline and the eventual 54-yard field goal to win.

This 9-yard pass is analytically NOT considered a success as the league only makes 56% of 54-yard field goals. But this has been going up as kickers get better and better – over the last 5 years, kickers are hitting over 63% from 54 yards and, over the past 2 years, it has been right around 70%. Most teams would feel pretty good about giving themselves a shot to win from the 36 yardline in overtime.

Add to it that this was a kick-to-win-the-game where Jake Elliott has not missed, and the analytics were wrong here.

Where Jake stacks up historically

Kicking has been going through a renaissance with distances and accuracy steadily increasing, especially since 2016. Field goal percentages are up over 10% since 2000 but this is also while distances are dramatically going up – almost four times as many 50+ yarders are being attempted now than 2000 and hit rates for those kicks have risen from 44% to almost 66%.

Elliott is one of today’s best kickers, but he has already placed himself with some of the game’s best kickers over the past 20 years. Jake is 14th in field goal percentage made since 2000, hitting 86.5% of his kicks, but he is 7th in EPA per kick.

Below lists the league’s top 20:

FG% RankKickerAttemptsFG%EPA/FGEPA Rank
1J.Tucker42090.0%0.3721
1E.Pineiro7090.0%0.15710
3Y.Koo13789.1%0.2103
4D.Carlson16688.6%0.12313
5R.Patterson5288.5%0.14212
6H.Butker21187.7%0.2064
7E.McPherson8187.7%0.3002
8M.Gay12987.6%0.1669
9J.Lambo15187.4%0.1688
10C.Boswell25087.2%0.12214
11R.Gould54687.2%0.11018
12M.Stover28886.8%0.09522
13S.Gostkowski49986.8%0.07329
14J.Elliott19286.5%0.1707
15K.Forbath15886.1%0.11117
16S.Hauschka33586.0%0.08524
17M.Bryant47885.8%0.06831
18D.Bailey29985.6%0.08425
19J.Myers23385.4%0.1726
20T.Bass10985.3%0.10021

And when you look where he stands in Eagles history, it really isn’t close even though we have had some good kickers. He is almost 2% better on field goal percentage than 2nd-place Cody Parkey and Jake’s the only kicker with a positive EPA.

  1. Jake Elliott – 86.5% FG percentage and a +0.170 EPA/kick
  2. Cody Parkey – 84.7% and -0.079 EPA
  3. Alex Henery – 81.7% and -0.092 EPA
  4. David Akers – 81.6% and -0.095 EPA
  5. Caleb Sturgis – 80.0% and -0.227 EPA

The only place where Jake isn’t leading is draft day selection “Napalm-ings” of the entire Dallas franchise, trailing Akers by one (but that will have to be remedied sometime in the future…)

But Elliott is even better than that

The story on Jake is even more impressive when you dig a bit deeper. What we all feel – that when the kicks are biggest, Jake is automatic – isn’t just a feeling. He may be the league’s best big-moment kicker.

Top-10 since 2000 when kicking to tie or take the lead

Jake is 59-for-67, or 88.1%, when kicking to tie or take the lead, good for 7th best since 2000 (minimum 60 kicks). And he’s in good company – Jason Elam leads kickers since 2000 with a 91.7% rate and today’s (and probably the eventual all-time) best kicker, Justin Tucker, is 5th and just ahead of Jake at a 89.3% rate.

…the top kicker when kicking to tie or take the lead in the 4th quarter or overtime

But when you look at the biggest kicks – those in the 4th quarter or overtime to tie or take the lead – Jake is one of only five perfect kickers since 2000 (Stephen Gotkowski, Jason Sanders, Matt Gay, and Josh Lambo). And Jake’s EPA on these kicks is +0.758, 2nd behind only Miami’s Jason Sanders.

…and perfect on end of game kicks

On kicks in the last minute of a game, Jake is 9-for-9, again tied for the best rate among kickers since 2000. Maybe even more impressive is his +0.899 EPA/kick on these kicks, over 0.200 better than the next best kicker, the GOAT Justin Tucker.

A lot of kicking stats are admittedly small sample sizes, but that is the life of a kicker – careers can be made or destroyed on just a handful of attempts. Just ask Philly native Matt Ammendola or Dominik Eberle or even Scott Norwood, a Pro Bowl kicker who will forever be known for “wide right”.

Even long-career guys may only have a dozen game-winning kick opportunities. But it is what it is… and Elliott right now is making the most of his opportunities and performing at an all-time level.

And we saw all of this against the Giants in week 3 of the 2017 season, only his third career game. After starting the season off a concerning 2-for-4 on field goals, missing a 30 yard chipshot against the Chiefs and from 52 yards earlier in the Giants game, Elliott got his chance late in the game. And he added another memorable game to Eagles lore. Everybody remembers his long field goal to win, but many forget that Elliott hit two big field goals in the final minute.

The Eagles were down 21-24 with just over 3:00 left in the game. Wentz drives the Eagles to the Giants 28 yardline and Elliott hits a 46-yarder to tie the game 51 seconds remaining. A quick defensive hold, and time only allowed a Wentz 19-yard pass to Alshon, leaving one second left for what looked like a hopeless 61-yard attempt. Take a watch and enjoy.

We can add “the league’s most clutch kicker” to the list of things this Eagles team is historically special with: one of the league’s best and most efficient run games, Hurts as one of the best QBs late in halfs, a historic pressure and sack pass rush, and the league’s best time-consuming offense.

Forget the Tush-Push, This Eagles Team Doesn’t Let Offenses Back on the Field

TAMPA, FLORIDA - SEPTEMBER 25: Jalen Hurts #1 of the Philadelphia Eagles quarterback sneak for a first down during the third quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium on September 25, 2023 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Mike Carlson/Getty Images)

After a two-point conversion, Tampa Bay pulls within two touchdowns with just over nine minutes left in the game. Still a big hill to climb but they had hope. Jake Camarda puts the kickoff into the endzone and starts Philly at their own 25.

On 1st against nine in the box, Lavonte David stops Gainwell for 1 yard.

As Aikman gushes about Brock Purdy, the Eagles line up in empty on 2nd and 9 and Tampa sends six rushers. Goedert on a quick throw for 11 yards and a 1st.

Philly comes out in 13-personnel and Gainwell follows pulls by Cam Jurgens and Grant Calcaterra for 6, almost breaking a long run.

Gainwell for 3.

As the broadcast shows Ronde Barber‘s pick-six, the Brotherly Shove appropriately shows up for 2 and a 1st.

To the well again, Gainwell loses 3 yards this time. In past years with past teams, this is the beginning of the end of the drive as every fan screams for D’Andre Swift to be back in.

Still talking about Ronde Barber, the broadcast shows Baker arriving to the game in a number 20 Barber jersey.

Incomplete deep to Gainwell bringing up 3rd and 13.

Still methodically taking the play clock down inside 5 seconds, Hurts hits A.J. Brown vs. off coverage and goes for 25 to the Tampa 30.

A couple more Gainwell runs and a quick pass to DeVonta Smith for another 1st and the Eagles wind another two-plus minutes off the clock.

A Hurts rush where he smartly sits down in bounds, two more Gainwell rushes and Tampa finally has Philly in a 4th down.

Obviously intent on limiting Devon Allen‘s competition for Special Teams Player of the Week, Philly does NOT bring out Jake Elliott for his fourth field goal and goes for it. With 10 defenders in the box, Hurts hits Brown for a 1st and that’s game.

A 9 minute, 22 second drive that never let Baker and the Bucs back on the field after an early 4th quarter touchdown.

Putting this game-ending drive into context

Out of 3,290 games since 2010, this was the 4th-longest game-ending drive and the longest drive to end a game since 2018. The others:

The Colts beat Houston in 2012
Against the division leading Texans, Andrew Luck seals a 12-point victory in the final game of his rookie season, beating Houston with a 9:46 drive to end the game. The win was extra sweet in Chuck Pagano’s first game back from chemotherapy where he and Luck led the Colts to a 9-win improvement over 2011.

Nick Foles over the Packers in 2013
Of course Saint Nick shows up. A week after his 7-TD game, Foles fumbles the ball deep in Philly territory late, up 27-13. The Packers can’t convert on 4th down from the Eagles 7-yard line and Foles and a steady diet of Lesean McCoy consumes the remaining 9:32 of the game.

Drew Brees over Washington in 2018
In the game that Brees passed Peyton Manning for all-time yards, the Saints rolled the still-named-Redskins. Down 43-19, the Saints burned off the remaining 10:25 of the game with a 15-play drive.

This team makes a business of chewing the clock

This hope-crushing drive was something to see and you would have to go back (checks calendar…) 11 days to see them do the same.

Up 27-14 in week 2 against the Vikings in a messy game that could have been a loss, the Eagles took over with 5:19 left in the third quarter. Hurts leads the Eagles on a frustrating 15-play drive that got them to the Minnesota 25 yard line, had a touchdown called back on a holding call and then took back-to-back sacks to end up in a 4th-and-34 from midfield. Frustrating to not score, but it also took 9:00 off the clock in a game where the Eagles seemed like they were trying to give the game away at times.

This Eagles team is one of the most effective teams in history in making the opposing offense sit on the sidelines in the 4th quarter.

In a league where the average drive is around two-and-a-half minutes, it is rare that offenses can chew up half of a quarter – since 2010, only 1.8% of 4th quarter drives are 7 minutes or longer. But since the start of last season, this Eagles team is doing it at one of the best rates in a long time.

Over 10% of their 4th quarter drives are over 7 minutes
Since the start of last season, the Eagles have seven 4th quarter drives over seven minutes. This is 10.6% of all of their Q4 drives. The next closest is a distant Bengals team at 6.7%.

Only one time since 2010 has a team had more long 4th quarter drive
The 2019 Ravens had six over seven minute drives, one better than last year’s Eagles team. The Ravens failed to repeat this in 2020 with only one. Meanwhile, the 2023 Eagles team already has done it twice in three games.

Hurts is second best since 2010 in leading long drives
Hurts already has 16 over seven-minute drives with 7 coming in the 4th quarter. Since 2010, only Lamar Jackson has a higher rate.

The tush-push is getting all the hate but teams should worry about getting the Eagles off the field when they have a lead. As the Tampa drive showed, even when teams know a run is coming and load the box, they aren’t able to stop the run.

The Eagles Will Start with a Win: A Look at My Favorite Teams to Out and Under Perform in 2023

After my last post on modeling the Eagles 2023 season and predicting another “over”, I got a lot of questions about the rest of the league, so I’m back here with the teams I have modeled that could out and under perform expectations the most.

Our Biggest Worry is the Punter… Another Eagles “Over” for 2023

If you have not seen my prior articles on modeling wins, please go check them out which are all linked in the post above. But as a brief summary, I use aggregated player values which has a high correlation to scoring (and wins) as well as expected strength of schedule and “luck” adjustments to model the season.

Top teams poised to outperform

Tennessee Titans (+2.9 wins)

10.4 wins vs. 7.5 line

This is my biggest non-chalk pick. I’ve been a perpetual bear on the Titans the past several seasons and this is the first time I have modeled them outperforming. There is risk to this – they are tied with the Rams with the most young starters and my model assumes growth from young players.

  • Of all pieces, their receivers is where I could regret the pick as so much depends on the growth of Treylon Burks (which I feel good about) and health of DeAndre Hopkins (which I worry on). But after years of the offense being all Derrick Henry, just getting league average here is big upside
  • Their two biggest weaknesses – OL and secondary – won’t be great but both should be improved with offseason additions and growth from young players

Green Bay Packers (+2.7 wins)

10.2 wins vs. 7.5 line

Another team with a lot of young players they will depend on starting with Jordan Love. It’s tough to replace Aaron Rodgers but Rodgers had a down year (by his standards at least) last year and the Packers lost some key players to injury.

  • It’s a small sample, but Love has been efficient and their offensive line will continue to be good.
  • So much depends on growth of his receivers and having Romeo Doubs and a rookie as WR2 and 3 is enough to “sell” on the Packers.
  • They were historically injured last year and some improvements on health and an easier schedule give them a lift.

Dallas Cowboys (+2.0 wins)

11.5 wins vs. 9.5 line

Full disclosure, the Cowboys have been a team I have been wrong on the past two years as I wrongly projected Dak’s return from injury and a struggling offensive line. And as much as it pains me to project them outperforming, I just don’t see the 9.5 line.

  • They’ve added more than they’ve lost in the offseason – Stephon Gilmore improves the secondary (if he stays on the field) and Brandin Cooks is probably better than his recent history catching passes in Houston
  • They have quite a bit of age risk with an older roster than has been injured

Honorable Mention: Atlanta Falcons (+0.9 wins)

Including the Falcons here just because I wrote previously on them being one of my favorite teams to outperform. The only reason I didn’t include them above is because offseason expectations have caught up, with their win line rising a full win.

  • They’ve added way more than they lost in the offseason, especially on the defensive side. And while I didn’t like the Bijan Robinson pick from a surplus value perspective, I am all for surrounding a young QB with talent and he does that
  • Ridder was my QB1 two drafts ago and him even being a decent QB improves the team greatly after Mariota. I think he could be better than “decent”, especially with an OL that should be quite better.
  • They suffered from puzzling personnel usage with Kyle Pitts and Drake London last year and I find it hard to imagine them doing the same this season

Top teams to sell

Los Angeles Rams (-2.3 wins)

4.2 wins vs. 6.5 line

It’s tough to pick an under on a 6.5 win line, but it’s a roster that time has finally caught up with. There are always bottom teams where little goes right and this should be the Rams

  • Tied with the Titans for one of the youngest set of starters, but a roster that is hard to pick out talent once you get past Matthew Stafford, Aaron Donald, and the banged up Cooper Kupp
  • On the plus side and the biggest risk to my prediction, they get to play the Cardinals twice

New England Patriots (-2.1 wins)

5.4 wins vs. 7.5 line

This would be a win total they haven’t seen since 2000 but they have quite a bit going against them.

  • Optimism on the Pats always starts with the defense and run game which is no way to build a team today. Juju will help but he also doesn’t have Ben or Mahomes throwing to him here.
  • One of the hardest schedules in the league and they could be 3-7 at the bye and a tougher post-bye schedule.
  • On the plus side and what could make this model look comical in retrospect, having Bill O’Brien call plays instead of Patricia may be worth a win or two alone.

I can’t see the Eagles starting with a loss to the Patriots as they are just better at almost every position and dramatically better at the positions that matter most. I see some expressing some concern stopping Rhamondre Stevenson who is very good. But the Eagles run defense should be much improved this season and if that is how the Pats have to try and beat the Eagles, I’ll take it.

Minnesota Vikings (-1.5 wins)

7.0 wins vs. 8.5 line

An obvious regression target as they had more one-score win “luck” than any other team last season, and their line at 8.5 wins after a 13-win season reflects it. But it’s still too high.

  • They lost a ton in the offseason, especially on defense and in the secondary.
  • On top of outperforming in one-score games, they also likely will see some injury regression and have a much tougher schedule with an improved division which they went 4-2 against last season.

Thanks for reading and make sure to follow us at @PHLEagleNews, @greghartpa, and @PhillyCvrCorner

The Philadelphia Eagles Core Four, One Last Ride

“The Core Four! Is that all the old guys?” ~ Jason Kelce

Not old, Jason.

Experienced!

Also, unique.

There are currently only 21 players in the NFL who have 10 years experience with only one team.

Only one team has four!

The Eagles, and their “Core Four”

They are; Bandon Graham, Jason Kelce, Fletcher Cox, and the newest member, Lane Johnson.

Each has their own unique journey with the Eagles, but they also share the same goal, to be leaders.

To give back and become mentors to the next generation of players.

To teach the younger guys what it means to be, and how to represent the Philadelphia Eagles.

And, to go out on top!

Not just for themselves.

For their teammates who became brothers, and are now family.

For their coaches, and everyone in the front office who drafted and believed in them.

For you, their fans.

For you, Philadelphia!

As Brandon Graham told me

“We are going to win one more for y’all”

The Core Four:

Brandon Graham

Heading into his 14th season with the Eagles, Brandon is the elder statesman.

The current longest-tenured Philadelphia Eagle.

He’s also the longest-tenured professional athlete in the entire city.

He’s the guy who has moved on from last year’s Super Bowl and is looking forward to the future.

“Last year is last year and we’re trying to create something special this year. Our focus is on what we’re doing now and I know we are all excited about getting it going.”

He is also the player who knows his time in the NFL won’t last forever

“I’m soaking it all up one day at a time. I’m more so trying to finish the deal on this season. We’ll talk more as that goes, but I’m trying to stop time as much as I can.”

Brandon wants to leave behind a legacy, like his mentor Trent Cole, who he credits for showing him the “Eagle Way”.

He patterned his routines and work ethic after Trent, and he is paying it forward.

“It’s just showing them how to practice. You’ve got to make sure you bring it every day. Some days, you don’t have it. You’ve got to make sure you can talk about it and tell people, ‘I need you. Finish the practice the right way.’ It’s more how we carry ourselves every day, our regimen.”

Graham has accepted that at age 35, he will play fewer snaps, but as he showed last year, he can be just as productive.

He is known for always wearing a smile and for sharing good-natured smack talk, but he also is known for putting in the work.

“I told the guys to make sure you have fun when it’s time to have it, but when we’re between those lines or in those meetings, let’s make it about what we do well so we can carry out that game plan.”

Despite making, arguably, the biggest play in Eagles history during the Super Bowl era, he wants more.

His love of the game, desire, and passion to win are fueling another NFL grind.

“The team that we have right now. So lucky, so fortunate to be on this team.”

And the team is lucky to have you.

Jason Kelce

The 6x Pro Bowler enters year 13 having started 139 straight games.

Kelce is only second in Eagles history to Jon Runyan had 144.

Jason also holds the second-longest streak in the NFL, the first is held by Atlanta OT Jake Matthews who, coincidentally, has 144 starts.

But what matters to him is the relationships he created during that streak, not the streak itself.

“We played a lot of football together. We know each other very well. We’ve been through a lot of battles. It’s really rare that many guys get to play together for over a decade.”

The four also share the desire to be the best.

The former Eagles General Manager, Joe Banner, stated that in addition to being the best individually, they share the desire to be a part of a team that is the best as well.

“There’s a very fundamental thing they have in common, in addition to being talented players. That’s the reason they have been on the team as long as they have and why they are not just good players but people that have elevated the whole roster.”

Jason takes that part of his job seriously, he exudes what it is to be a Philadelphia Eagle.

Lane Johnson describes Jason as the “nucleus” of their team.

“With how he plays, with his emotions and passion for the game, it bleeds into everything we’ve been trying to do here for years with the culture.”

Teammate, and fellow offensive lineman, Jordan Mailata concurs.

Jordan has a picture of Kelce wearing the Batman Mask as the wallpaper on his phone.

“Fat Batman is a true leader”

Teaching and inspiring the next generation is essential to Kelce.

For his teammates and his children.

I know, it has become redundant to read the next statement as much as it has to type.

This same feeling of paying it forward is shared by all four.

Yet, in the back of Jason’s mind, he knows that his time mentoring and teaching will soon be coming to an end, as well as his time playing in the NFL.

But it does not consume his thoughts.

“Maybe three years ago, it was on my mind quite a bit. I’ve learned now that I don’t know when that last game is going to come, so maybe I think about it a little bit less.”

So, like the rest of the team, Jason “Keeps the main thing, the main thing” and focuses on the here and now.

Which is to win a second Championship.

But alas, he will take it one day at a time and stay focused on the process.

“It’s always a chance that that’s going to be the situation, but you just try to think about the game and focus on taking in the moment and being 100 percent there. It’s hard enough doing it that way. It’s going to be a lot harder if you’re not focused.”

Fletcher Cox

Many thought that last season would prove to be Fletcher’s swansong with the Eagles but the 6 x Pro Bowler is back in Philly for his 12th season.

Back with his longtime teammate and friend, Brandon Graham.

“I tell a lot of people, I feel like me and B.G. have been married for 11 years now. Some of the things he does, it’s just second nature.”

Sharing laughs and fun stories is second nature with them too.

They share lockers next to one another and Fletch shared that not too long ago he reminded B.G. to brush his teeth.

Always laughing, but also putting in the work and giving back.

Passing the torch is a theme all of the Core-Four share, and Cox has been spending a lot of his time with rookie extraordinaire, Jalen Carter.

Carter described what Fletch has meant to him.

“Fletch is a very good guy. He talks to me every day, calls me. Even when we’re on break, he was calling me every day, checking on my weight. He’s been doing that ever since.” ~ Jalen Carter describing the mentorship Fletch has provided.

Cox also plays the role of mentor to all of the young players.

“Just try to stay on your same routine. It’s going to be hard, but don’t change nothing. I just try to tell the guys just remain the same.”

Great advice from the best DT of this millennium.

Maybe ever.

Fletcher also echoed the sentiments of his friend and teammate in regards to playing another year together, and with this team.

“It means a lot. I’ve been cherishing every moment, just soaking it all in, just letting all the guys know, ‘Hey, we got a chance to do something special.’ We really do.”

Lane Johnson

The youngest and newest member of the double-digit club is none other than, Pave the Lane Johnson.

Entering his 11th season, this 4x Pro Bowler has not allowed a sack since 2020.

Wow.

Let me state that again.

Eagles right tackle Lane Johnson hasn’t given up a sack since Nov. 22, 2020.

Just incredible.

Humble as always, Lane shares the credit for developing the foundation and that of his success with others.

“I remember I came in my rookie year, JP (Jason Peters) was 32, 33 and I see how he’s first in every drill, how he’s running from drill to drill, so those guys set the example for me.”

Not only did they show him how he wanted to play, but how to have success and longevity in the NFL.

I think if you look at the guys who played here before us, for me, Runyan, Tra Thomas, Jason Peters. I see guys like, Whitworth, Trent Williams, those guys pushing into their late 30s, early 40s. That’s my motivation.”

Lane also credits former teammate and friend Brandon Brooks for helping him in his struggle with mental health.

Not only has he opened up in regards to his battle, but now he is helping others in a lot of ways, including his MentalHealthMonday tweets of encouragement..

On the field, Lane continues to motivate others while passing on the values that he has learned to keep the long tradition of O-Line excellence in Philadelphia intact.

Landon Dickerson, Cam Jurgens, and Jordan Mailata all watch and learn from Lane and Kelce every day.

A wealth of knowledge from them and the other players, along with Coach Stoutland, is a resource that most organizations just do not have.

A brotherhood.

The bonds and friendships they have will last long after football.

And Lane appreciates every minute with them.

“What an incredible ride it’s been. Kelce, Fletch, and BG. Not a lot of players get to experience it with the core group of guys like this. I’m thankful to be with these guys.”

Lane is entering the season healthy, and he’s happy that he put the surgery(both groins) in his rearview mirror early in the offseason.

He’s focused and ready to tackle the task at hand.

“For us, it’s just to maintain focus on the here and the now and what’s in front of us. I think it just goes down to execution.”

He’s also grateful to be doing it with his friends.

“I’m thankful to be with these guys. I know how much it means to them. They don’t have to say anything. I’ve been around them all these years.”

It means everything to us too.

I’m not crying, you are.

Core Facts

There are currently only 21 players in the NFL who have 10 years experience with only one team.

The Eagles are the only team with four.

All 4 will be Philadelphia Eagle Hall of Famers.

At least 2 of them could be NFL Hall of Famers.

Kelce and Lane are still playing at an All-Pro level.

B.G. just had the most sacks of his career (11) at age 34.

Cox contributed 7 sacks(his most since 2018) )and stellar line play while in a heavy rotation.

All 4 are Super Bowl Champions.

The Core-Four represents the Eagle’s core value.

Building through the trenches.

I hope to add a storybook ending to this piece in February.

2x Super Bowl Champions.

Praise For the Core-Four:

“When I first got the job here, I wasn’t like other first-year head coaches. Why I said that was because I had these unbelievable players that have been to the mountaintop, that have played in this league for 10-plus year. Two on the offensive line, two on the defensive line. Knowing what it takes to be successful, knowing the wins that they’ve had, that’s obviously a huge advantage for our football team.” ~ Eagles Head Coach Nick Sirianni

“They’re definitely guys we can lean on their experience. Experience is the biggest teacher. Having those guys around is definitely beneficial.’’ ~ Jalen Hurts

As always, thank you for reading.

David

9/7/2023

Follow me @PHLEagleNews

Follow Greg @greghartpa

Follow us @PhillyCvrCorner

Our Biggest Worry is the Punter… Another Eagles “Over” for 2023

It’s nice that we aren’t wondering if we have a franchise QB or not, wanting to trade everything for a declining Russ, or talking ourselves into Reagor finally being the guy… This year Eagles Twitter’s (myself included) biggest complaint is who the punter will be.

When the punter is your worry, the Eagles are in good shape.

This is the 4th season I have used a pre-season win projection model and the first year that I have (1) felt very consensus and (2) not loved the line with it at 11.5. But I have the Eagles modeled slightly worse than last year at just over 12 wins.

AV win projection model

I use an aggregated player Approximate Value (AV) model and it has either been lucky or good (or some of both) the past three seasons:

SeasonVegas Line
Wins		AV Model
Predicted Win Total		Actual
Record
20209.54.1 (Under)4-11-1
20216.58.9 (Over)9-8-0
20229.510.7 (Over)14-3-0

I won’t go into too much detail on the model here but the key points are:

  • Individual player value will vary year-to-year, but aggregating a team’s player value has a strong correlation to wins
  • There are value ramps for young players and declines for older players (decay of play and injuries) which get modeled in
  • Strength of schedule and “luck” adjustments are added in

Click to see a summary of prior year’s models

12.5 Wins for the 2023 Eagles

Expectations are again high and this is the first year where I am really close to the consensus line, but I think consensus is right.

They have arguably the deepest roster in the league

In a salary cap and free agency league that makes teams pick where they will be strong and weak, the Eagles are strong at most units and comically deep on the lines. Yes, linebacker remains an issue with little or no depth and so much comes down to Nakobe Dean and Zach Cunningham playing well and staying healthy. Yes there are weaknesses, but no team has a perfect roster and the Eagles are strong at most positions and definitely at the most important positions.

Hurts provides almost immeasurable value

Last year I said the thing to watch was Hurts’ efficiency throwing in the high volume 1-10 yard range. He greatly improved there but also was one of the best deep passers in the league. His mobility makes teams play 11-on-11 and makes the running backs better – they had one of the best rushing attacks in 20 years last season. And he was one of the most clutch QBs in the league, 3rd in the league in percentage of possible points scored and 2nd in explosive play rate at the end of halfs.

Their personnel changes are more upgrades than not

I try to not be overly optimistic on offseason adds and look to historical data to balance the view as it is easy to see the positives and ignore the negatives. It is really hard to keep a good team together but the Eagles not only largely did that, but in aggregate may have upgraded. Here are the key moves:

  • Javon Hargrave to Jalen Carter – This is the biggest loss from an on-the-field perspective, but it was the right thing from a contract angle. As excited as I am for Carter, it is a lot to expect a rookie to replace Hargrave’s production as few rookies have done so. He could though. And because the Eagles have multiple pass rush threats, it makes it easier for Carter.
  • CJGJ / Epps to Reed / Edmunds / Sydney Brown – CGJG was great for us and it would have been nice to have him back. But so much of CJGJ’s value came from turnovers which are notoriously unstable and he missed 10 games over the past two seasons. The Eagles drafted Sydney and signed Edmunds, and Reed showed what he can do – the Eagles likely upgraded here and they actually model an improvement here.
  • Miles Sanders to D’Andre Swift / Rashaad Penny – Miles was very good for us and had his best season in 2022. But Swift and Penny both generate more yards after contact and more missed tackles. And Swift is a receiving upgrade. While efficiency is lower throwing to RBs than WRs no matter how good the back is, the Eagles needed to improve here and did.
  • Seumalo to Cam Jurgens – Isaac was another that would have been good to keep but they couldn’t prioritize his contract. With high draft picks the past two years on the interior, you have to trust this won’t be a downgrade.
  • Gannon to Desai – Not all upgrades are on the field and I cannot forget Desai. I wasn’t as negative on Gannon as most but he clearly had weaknesses that got exposed. If Desai brings more route disruption, concealment in coverage and pass rush, and aggressiveness, you should expect an improvement here.

The risks: injuries and a tougher schedule

I always have a list of what could go wrong as there are countless things. But I’m pressed to find big question marks outside of normal risks. If they suffer injuries at key positions it will hurt – they were the 3rd healthiest team last season and 5th healthiest over the past two and that won’t keep up.

The difficulty of their schedule is overrated, it is middle of the league but last year they had one of the easier schedules, so it is right to project an extra game or two they lose this year.

At just over 12 wins, I almost feel more pessimistic than the consensus and if I did bet (I don’t), I don’t love the Eagles win line at 11.5. But I’m going with the model again – it will eventually be wrong, maybe this year as the league is so difficult, but it is hard to find concerns.

At least once they find their punter.

Fly Eagles fly!

Thanks for reading and make sure to follow us at @PHLEagleNews, @greghartpa, and @PhillyCvrCorner

The Super Bowl Champion, Playoff Teams, and MVPs of the 2023 Season are Revealed!

NFC Playoff Teams (7)

Philadelphia Eagles *

Dallas Cowboys

Washington Commanders

Detroit Lions *

Atlanta Falcons *

Seattle Seahawks *

San Francisco 49ers 

AFC Playoff Teams (7)

Buffalo Bills *

NY Jets 

Cincinnati Bengals *

Baltimore Ravens 

Pittsburgh Steelers

Jacksonville Jaguars*

Kansas City Chiefs *

Denver Broncos lose tie-breaker to Steelers

Awards:

Offensive Rookie of the Year 

Anthony Richardson (I know…)Bijan was given a lot of consideration.

Defensive Rookie of the Year 

Jalen Carter, 2nd Devon Witherspoon

Offensive player of the year 

Ja’Marr Chase

Defensive player of the year 

Haason Reddick

It was hard for me to decide between Micah Parsons and Haason Reddick, but I believe Jalen Carter frees up Reddick to cause a lot of carnage.

This my not be a totally unbiased decision.

Comeback player of the year 

Damar Hamlin

Coach of the year 

Nick Sirianni 

MVP

Jalen Hurts, followed by Lamar Jackson

AFC Championship Game

Miami Dolphins vs. Cincinnati Bengals

NFC Championship Game 

Seattle Seahawks vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Super Bowl

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Philadelphia Eagles 

Chase and Sydney Brown become the 2nd brothers to play against one another in the Super Bowl.

(1 year after fellow Eagles Jason Kelce played against his brother Travis in SB 57)

Last year

They came so close to this being a reality.

This year…

Super Bowl Winner

Philadelphia Eagles

They’re bringing the Lombardi back home.

With the help of Jalen Hurts and the overall leadership of this team, they were able to stay focused, dedicated, and…

“Keep the main thing, the main thing”

As always, thank you for reading.

David

8/25/2023

Follow me @PHLEagleNews

Follow Greg @greghartpa

Follow us @PhillyCvrCorner

Can the Eagles Pass Rush Do What Few Have Done?

The Eagles 2022 pass rush was relentless. And historic.

Their defensive line finished with the 2nd most sacks ever and the top sack rate since 2010 at 2.35%. Only 4 other times since 2010 – Buffalo in 2013 and 2014, Pittsburgh in 2019, and Chicago in 2021 – have teams even gone above a 2% sack rate.

If you have followed me for any time, you know I focus on pressures a lot more than sacks, which is why I was so high on Nolan Smith this draft. He had an elite pressure rate at UGA despite “not having a lot of sacks”.

Pressures are a more stable stat that is more predictive of future performance. And it is a higher volume stat (pressures occur on 6 times as many snaps as sacks) that still impacts offensive performance to a high degree. But hey, if Nolan Smith says they brought him here not to get close but to finish plays, well then I’m on board with sacks today.

Defenses rarely repeat great sack performances

Teams rarely can repeat this performance, however. Only 3% of the time have teams repeated as a top 5 sack-producing team and only one-in-eight have been able to even finish in the top 10 in back to back seasons.

The top sack-producing teams average a decrease of almost 10 sacks the following season while the worst sack-producing teams average adding 7 sacks. Basically, teams move back towards the average sack rate (right around 35 sacks per year) year-over-year, meaning there is little carryover from one year to the next.

This makes sense. Players change teams and injuries often are the cause. Of course great pass rushers will generate more sacks, but sacks are a bit opportunistic and are controlled by the quarterback way more than most people realize.

A look at the defensive lines that did repeat…

The teams that do repeat stand out. The 2013-14 Bills in a 16-game season totaled 111 regular season sacks over two seasons. The 2020-21 Steelers also totaled 111 regular season sacks which capped a five-year run of over 50 sacks. From 2019-21, the Aaron Donald-led Rams had three consecutive years over 50 sacks.

There are a few things these lines all have in common:

  • Multiple pass rush threats (and likely at least one elite pass rusher)
  • Below average double-team rates as offenses can’t focus on just one rusher

Bills 2013-2014 (111 sacks, 516 pressures):

They had a very good trio of Jerry Hughes, Mario Williams, and Marcell Dareus. No individual had a particularly great win rate but all hit double-digit sacks in back-to-back seasons. In 2015, the line aged, Williams left, and their coverage dropped off, quickly ending their dominance.

Steelers 2017-2021 (averaged 54 sacks and 267 pressures):

High draft picks like T.J. Watt, Cam Heyward, Javon Hargrave, Stephon Tuitt, and Alex Highsmith filled this line for years and gave us the most recent – and longest – dominance of a defensive line. As good as T.J. Watt is, he was doubled at a below-average rate.

While most teams can’t repeat, the Steelers had an incredible 5-year run. It took losing Watt for half the season to even bring them back to league average.

Rams 2019-2021 (averaged 53 sacks and 340 pressures):

Of course an Aaron Donald-led defensive line is going to be on the list. They had a 3-season span of 50 sacks in 2019, 58 in 2020, and 50 in 2021 when they added another elite pass rusher in Von Miller.

Donald has been ridiculously double-teamed throughout his career on nearly 70% of his pass rush snaps but still had a 30% win rate. And this made the rest of the line better – unsurprisingly, a player like Leonard Floyd had his best career seasons with back-to-back 13+ sack seasons. And Von Miller, who was doubled heavily in Denver, dropped to well below average rates of double-teaming in LA.

…and some that didn’t

But the vast majority of lines were single-season hits and saw drop offs the following season for various reasons.

Losing players – the 2021 Bears

The 2021 Bears had the 2nd best sack rate (2.19%) since 2010 but when you lose Khalil Mack, Robert Quinn, and Akiem Hicks (Mack and Hicks both with win rates over 20%), the following season isn’t going to be great… Trevis Gipson reached double-digit sacks playing with Mack, Quinn, and Hicks but, once they left, he was doubled at one of the highest rates in the league in 2022, leading to a 3-sack and 13% win rate season.

Injuries – the 2021 Titans

A Jeffrey Simmons, Denico Autry, and Harold Landry front put up 60 sacks and 273 pressures in 2021, but the line was crushed in 2022 – Landry was out all season with a knee and both Autry and Simmons missed time. Add in a secondary that could be picked on as the Eagles game showed and they had no shot to repeat.

QB time to throw? – our own 2021 Eagles

There are countless other examples but I pulled our Eagles to show some of the complexity with sacks.

In 2021, the Eagles took a ton of heat for totaling only 29 sacks, lowest in the league that year and one of the lowest since 2010. I wrote after that season in “A Look at the Eagles Pass Rush and Offseason Priorities” why the pass rush wasn’t as bad as most thought.

That line had the 7th best pass rush win rate, had a top-10 pass rusher in Javon Hargrave with a 27% win rate, and Josh Sweat with a 20% win rate. One thing most overlook, though, is how quickly opposing QBs threw against that defense.

In a league where QBs average 2.7 seconds to throw, that Eagles defense faced one of the quickest average releases in years with 13 QBs throwing quicker than league average. Four were in the 2.2s. In the three games that the Eagles faced an average release time, they generated 9 of their sacks.

I’m not saying that line would have been an all-time great – they did lose BG at the start of the season, Cox was aging, and the lack of a second interior threat meant Hargrave was doubled a ton. But when success is defined as getting to the QB in 2.5 seconds or less, QBs throwing quicker than that makes it nearly impossible to log sacks.

Why I’m more bullish on the 2023 Eagles line

Can this line repeat its near-record sack attack from last year? Few expect them to and anybody betting would be smart to take the under.

As mentioned above, the best two-season sack total is 111 which this team should easily pass and will likely eclipse it somewhere around the bye week. The question is can they have another all-time great season?

After last year’s 70 sacks, the next best year in the last five seasons is 58 sacks by the 2020 Rams. You have to go back to the 2013 Bills to have a 60 sack season. The Eagles themselves have only hit 50 sacks once, back in 2011.

But I’m bullish on this Eagles line repeating their monster year. 70? No, but they could threaten the 2020 Rams 58.

5 points on the Eagles defensive line in 2023:

1. They have multiple dangerous pass rushers
Who on this line gets doubled? The top teams above all had multiple pass rush threats and it resulted in below-average double rates as teams could not lock on one guy. Do teams double Jordan Davis? Carter? Sweat? Reddick? Last year, only Josh Sweat was doubled at close to a league average rate and that should continue this season.

2. What can Jalen Carter produce?
It will be hard to replace Hargrave’s 11 sacks and no matter how excited we are about Carter, you have to go back a ways for a rookie DT to hit 10+ sacks. Ndamukong Suh did it but if you look at recent examples of players that had Carter’s college pressure and sack production like Quinnen Williams, Dexter Lawrence, and Christian Wilkins, they all had 2-3 sacks their rookie year. Carter is in a much better situation than any of those guys, however.

3. They don’t have Wentz on their schedule
Unless somebody signs him out of need, the Eagles don’t get to feast on the one-man, sack-stat-padding wonder this season. In a league where the sack rate averages under 1.3% of dropbacks, the Eagles sacked Wentz 9 times on 55 dropbacks last season, or 16%. They don’t get anywhere near 70 without Wentz.

4. Do they stay healthy?
Past teams that failed to repeat usually lost players to injury or free agency or had players suddenly age. Sure, Cox is up there, but the Eagles are young across the line and players like Milton Williams, Josh Sweat, and Jordan Davis should all be better. The one thing that could hurt? Injuries, as we have already seen in the pre-season.

5. Do QBs choose to throw fast against the Eagles?
This is the one I am most interested in – quarterbacks should throw quickly against the Eagles pass rush, similar to 2021, and I think they will. Last season, the teams that did throw quickly generally fared better – in the 7 games the QBs got rid of the ball quickly (2.5 seconds or quicker), the Eagles only had 15 sacks, or just above 2 sacks per game. And these were some of the games the pass defense struggled – the Lions, Cardinals, and Colts. But in the 6 games where they faced an average time to throw of 2.8 seconds or higher, they had 37 sacks (Titans, Giants twice, Cowboys, Bears, and Saints) or over 6 sacks per game.

I hate predictions because football is just way too complicated, but what the heck – I’ll take 54 sacks on the season, below last season but well above the best two-season mark over the past decade.

While they have a tougher schedule overall, they get several of the weaker offensive lines this year including Washington and the Giants twice, Seattle, LA, Arizona, and the Jets.

Fly Eagles fly!

Thanks for reading and make sure to follow us at @PHLEagleNews, @greghartpa, and @PhillyCvrCorner

The Best Philadelphia Eagles To Draft On Your Fantasy Football Team

The NFL season is always a grind and having healthy players goes a long way to winning that coveted title in fantasy, as it does in real life.

Having players providing a value higher than their average draft position does as well.

The following are 5 Eagles players with a current ADP lower than their expected return on your round investment.

These players could propel you toward hoisting your fantasy league trophy in 2023.

A.J. Brown:

His current ADP is averaging between the 13–25th overall player selected, and the 6th wideout taken off the board.

He is not the value he was last year when he was the 12th WR being selected, but his connection with Hurts is steady and won’t be denied.

He had 140 targets last season, I expect that number to go down some, to maybe 125.

My Projected Fantasy Value

83 receptions, 1,357 receiving yards, 8 TDs

DeVonta Smith:

DeVonta is currently the 14th wideout being drafted.

Last year he was the 30th.

So much like AJ, his value will not be as high of a return for those who got that bargain last year, but he is still being underestimated.

I expect him to have a better season statistically.

My Projected Fantasy Value

96 Receptions 1361 receiving yards 7 TDs

Dallas Goedert:

Dallas may not get the number of targets needed to be a top-tier fantasy tight end (70–85) but the game plan should still allow for an average of 6–7 a week.

He wants 1000 yards this season, and maybe I am being too ambitious, but I think he can get there as well.

If he stays healthy, I expect him to increase his production and be a top 5 tight end.

My Projected Fantasy Value

77 Receptions 1007 yards 6 TD’s

Jalen Hurts:

Last year his ADP was in the late to mid-sixties, while being ranked between the 7–10th fantasy QB.

This season he was ranked the #3 player in the NFL by his peers and most of his doubters are now believers, so it will be a lot harder to procure him on the roster.

The rushing yards and touchdowns will always be a part of his game, and the passing game will only get better.

New RB D’Andre Swift should help to increase the volume as well.

My Projected Fantasy Value

4066 passing yards 29 TDs 10 int

671 rushes and 11 TDs

Kenneth Gainwell:

Gainwell’s current ADP is 171st, as the 59th running back that’s been drafted overall.

If healthy, he should deliver a much larger value than a projected RB3, and I think he may even be RB1.

All of the attention has been given to Swift, but KG has a chance to have a larger volume o the ground, and he could come close to the receptions in the passing game.

My Projected Fantasy Value

131 Rushes 582 yards and 6 TDs

37 Receptions 433 yards and 2 TDs

A tad ambitious, perhaps, but I believe he will have 1000 all-purpose yards.

In my opinion, Gainwell has the most value based off of his ADP.

He is a steal in the late rounds and could be the player that propels you to victory.

He is a must-add!

  • Honorable mentions to D’Andre Swift and Penny who will be a great handcuff if you select KG, unfortunately, they are being selected higher.

As always, Thank you for reading

8/10/23

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Nolan Smith, “I don’t like being the nail, I like being the hammer!”

During the draft process I was more excited for Nolan Smith than any other prospect in the draft, (I never thought Jalen Carter was possible) and I mocked Nolan to the Eagles as high as their 10th pick.

As a reminder of the talent he is bringing to the team and why you should be excited as well.

His speed and verticals are off the charts

Howie and others mentioned Derek Barnetts‘ bend as a reason they were thrilled to have drafted him, well, check out Nolan’s

And he doesn’t just measure up to past Eagle draft picks, check out how he did against the field in the 2023 draft.

And the comps to last year’s number one overall pick, and his former teammate

The intangibles and traits he’s bringing to the field:

Much like the Captain and QB on the offensive side, this former team Captain for Georgia isn’t afraid of hard work

or dropping some great, thoughtful, quotes

The Eagles not only aren’t afraid to gamble on athleticism, they seemingly prefer it.

Nolan is one of the most athletic edge rushers in recent memory.

The Eagles have also had an up-close look at a player with a similar skill set for the past year.

Nolan and Reddick coming off the edge is a nightmare for any defensive coordinator.

I am sure Desai will find creative ways to get both on the field at the same time.

Get hyped with some game clips

Enjoy training camp!

As always, thank you for reading.

David

7/25/2023

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The Hurts Effect

The Philadelphia Eagles QB has everyone believing in Brotherly Love!

When is the last time the Eagles had a player that was so beloved and more importantly, believed in, that hardly any player on the team wanted to leave?

Has it ever happened with a Philadelphia Eagles team?

Well, it’s happening now.

Jalen Hurts is changing the way business is done in the NFL and even those who are doing it!

The Players:

He’s changing retirement plans:

“Obviously I’m coming back because I want to win. I’m coming back because Jalen Hurts is there, and I feel really confident in our coaches and team” (Jason Kelce on returning for another season. via @newheightshow)

Jason Kelce- “Jalen Hurts makes all of our jobs a lot easier, when you have a QB playing at that level, everybody plays better around you.”

He’s changing surgical dates!

He has players willing to take less money:

Brandon signed for $6M

He has college players jockeying for a spot on the team:

The best RB in the 2023 draft class wanted to play with Jalen too!

Even the UDFA punter the Eagle signed gives Hurts love on the first tweet he sends out announcing he signed with the Birds.

In short, he is inspiring others who believe in him, to believe in themselves, and he’s doing a whole lot more.

He’s also changing the culture:

Jalen has comprised an all-women-led off-the-field management team, who he describes as “straight hustlers”

“I’ve put a lot of trust and faith in a female-driven team. I admire anyone who puts their head down and works for what they want. And I know women who do that daily, but they don’t get the same praise as men. They don’t get the praise that they deserve”

This is nothing new:

His abilities and leadership skills were being recognized prior to his magical 2022 season.

He had the support from everyone inside the building long before a lot of fans understood the magic that was taking place behind the closed doors.

Why Brian Dawkins is a big believer in Jalen Hurts
Eagles legend Brian Dawkins spoke with John Clark about Jalen Hurts and his ability to grow into a franchise…www.nbcsports.com

Jalen Hurts has changed what it means to be a member of this team and what it means to be a player on the Philadelphia Eagles.

Leads By Example:

There has never been a player who has made themselves easier to root for.

His ambitions are not limited to the football field, while off of it, he earned his master’s degree this off-season.

He is inspiring both physically and academically.

He’s just different.

WagerWire Report: Reflecting on Jalen Hurts, He’s Just Different

And all of those quotes we love so much, he doesn’t just say them, he lives them.

Jalen himself even accepted a team-friendly contract, as he said

“Money is nice, Championships are better”

Webster’s:

I’d like to submit a new vocabulary word/phrase to Webster’s

“Hurts Effect”

The Hurts Effect: the hurts ef·fect

verb

Inspiring, leads by example, and exudes infectious positive energy.

noun

Winner

As always, thank you for reading.

David

7/24/2023

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2023 Philadelphia Eagles Pre Camp 53-man Roster Projection

Offense (24)

QB (3)

Jalen Hurts

Marcus Mariota

Tanner McKee

RB (4)

D’Andre Swift

Rashaad Penny

Kenney Gainwell

Boston Scott

Fighting- Trey Sermon

WR (5)

AJ Brown

Devonta Smith

Quez Watkins

Britain Covey

Joseph Ngata

Sleeper- Olamide Zaccheaus

TE (3)

Dallas Goedert

Jack Stoll

Grant Calcaterra

Fighting- Tyree Jackson

OL (9)

Jason Kelce

Lane Johnson

Jordan Mailata

Landon Dickerson

Cam Jurgens

Tyler Steen

Jack Driscoll

Fred Johnson

*Sua Opeta or Dennis Kelly

*** Eagles signed Josh Andrews and reinstated Josh Sills after this was written. One or both could make the roster at the expense of Opeta or more likely Kelly. ***

Defense (26)

DL (9)

Brandon Graham

Josh Sweat

Tarron Jackson

Milton Williams

Fletcher Cox

Jordan Davis

Jalen Carter

Derek Barnett

Moro Ojomo

Fighting- Kentavius Street

LB (6)

Nakobe Dean

Nicholas Morrow

Christian Elliss

Haason Reddick

Nolan Smith

Patrick Johnson

Signed after this writing & fighting for roster spot:

Myles Jack and Zach Cunningham.

Cunningham is my guess as to taking someone roster spot

S (4)

Reed Blankenship

Terrell Edmunds

Sydney Brown

K’Von Wallace

Fighting- Justin Evans

CB (7)

Big Play Slay

James Bradberry

Avonte Maddox

Zech McPhearson

Kelee Ringo

Mekhi Garner

Josh Jobe

Sleeper- Eli Ricks, likely practice squad bound. Mario Goodrich could fight for the slot corner spot.

***Zech out for the year, Goodrich is my guess to take his spot***

ST (3)

P Arryn Siposs

K Jake Elliot

LS Rick Lovato 

Fighting- Ty Zentner

As always, thank you for reading.

David

7/17/2023

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The 10 Best Corners in Philadelphia Eagles History

Prior to the Eagles trading for Slay before the 2020 season, the recent history of the Philadelphia cornerback situation has not been one worth ranking, or watching.

Outside of the magical 2017 season, the backfield had been a mess.

The Eagles have not used any of their first-round draft picks to address the position since 2002, and the other resources, before Slay, had only proven to be a Band-Aid on an open wound.

As a fan of football, I enjoy watching a shutdown corner face a top wideout every week. There is something real and raw from watching two top athletes battle it out Mano a Mano. I missed seeing these battles from the Eagles. I would love to see them focus on the cornerback position more going forward. Drafting a CB within the first two rounds every 4–5 years should be prioritized. It not only is a position on the field that is one of the most important, but it also makes great financial sense as cornerbacks are often one of the most highly paid in free agency. The lack of draft capital being used, and the lack of talent, were apparent when I reviewed the history of the position over the past 40 years.

  1. Eric Allen (7 Seasons) 2nd RD 1988 34 INT * Needs his Gold Jacket*
  2. Troy Vincent(8 Seasons) 1st RD 1992 (Eagles signed in 1996) 28 INT
  3. Herman Edwards (9 Seasons) undrafted 1977 33 INT
  4. Lito Sheppard (6 Seasons) 1st RD 2002 18 INT
  5. Sheldon Brown (7 Seasons) 2nd RD 2002 19 INT
  6. Bobby Taylor (9 Seasons) 2nd RD 1995 19 INT
  7. Asante Samuel (4 Seasons) 4th RD 2003 (Eagles signed in 08) 23 INT
  8. Roynell Young (9 Seasons) 1st RD 1980 23 INT
  9. Darius Slay (3 Seasons) 2nd RD 2013 (traded to Eagles in 20) 7 INT
  10. Mark McMillian (4 Seasons) 10th RD 1992 8 INT

Admittedly, interceptions do not tell the entire tale of a cornerback’s job, but that has always been one of the stats that corners are judged by. In recent years more stats such as passes defended, PBU (pass breakups), QB rating when the ball is thrown at them, and coverage ratings have told a bigger story. For the sake of space and time for this article, I have listed the interception totals in the rankings. I did not include the new stats that I just mentioned above, as they were not available for players pre-2010. As you can see from the list above, most of the best corners for this franchise are pre-2010.

I think the rankings show a direct correlation between using first and second-round draft capital and having top cornerbacks on your roster. The top 5 corners of the past 40 years in Eagle’s history were all drafted in the first 2 rounds, they also played out their first contracts and received a second or third which only enhanced the value of the original draft pick.

The only outliers on the list are Asante Samuel selected in the 4th rd (who would have been much higher on the list had he played more than 4 seasons in Philadelphia) and Herman Edwards who went undrafted.

* Season & Interception totals calculated while playing for the Eagles*

Big Play Slay had an amazing 2021 regular season, finishing with 3 interceptions, 3 defensive touchdowns, and a Pro Bowl nod.

2022 brought more of the same.

3 more picks and a leader of the #1 pass defense in the NFL.

After 3 seasons, he has already established himself as one of the top 10 corners in Eagles history.

He has surpassed SB heroes, Ronald Darby, and Jalen Mills.

Which to me, says a lot.

As always, thank you for reading.

David

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7/7/2023

10 Foretellings The Crystal Ball Has Revealed For The Eagles’ 2023 Season

The second annual All-Eagles Crystal Ball

Jalen Hurts will be the league MVP

If not for an injury, he was in the discussion with Pat Mahomes until the very end.

Jalen will take another step forward in 2023 and throw for more yards, and more TDs while winning over more voters.

The Eagles were 31st in pass plays to an RB in 2022, they’ll be top 20

A new dynamic weapon in the backfield, D’Andre Swift, coupled with Kenny Gainwell, and an OC, Brian Johnson, who showed at Florida that he utilizes the position more in the passing game should equal a 33% rise up the ranks.

DeVonta Smith will be the first Eagles WR to have 100 receptions

DeVonta had 95 receptions in 2022, so on the surface, this doesn’t appear to be a huge increase.

But, with a healthy Goedert not missing 5 games, more weapons in the passing game being utilized (Swift and Gainwell), and a bounce back from WR3, there just aren’t that many balls to go around.

Even so, his route running is elite and he creates opportunities for himself by being open regularly.

He improves on last year’s breakout performance and validates his comments that he is a top-10 wideout in the NFL.

Goedert finally gets 1000 receiving yards in a single season

Dallas missed 5 games last season and ended the season with 702 yards and sported a 58.5 yards per game average.

That average would have totaled 994 if he were healthy for all 17 games.

The Crystal Ball believes he will play in more games and have a higher YPG average.

Say, 1050 yards and 5 TDs.

Britain Covey will be a top-10 punt returner

Last season Covey ranked 24th in the league with 9.3 yards per return average.

He finished the season with 308 yards on 33 returns including his longest of 27 yards.

He didn’t score a TD last season, but in addition to being a top-10 returner in 2023, the Crystal Ball reveals that Britain will have a return of over 40 yards and find his way to the end zone for a score in 2023.

Hurts will throw for 4000 yards and rushes for 500

Jalen threw for 3701 yards which was good for a 246-yard-per-game average.

Had he played in all 17 games he would have eclipsed 4000 in 2022.

If the Eagles are as good as some project, he may be sitting for a week at season’s end to rest for the playoffs.

With the addition of adding some yards to the backs, I would be surprised if he doesn’t increase his YPG average to somewhere around 265.

Nakobe Dean hits the century mark

TJ Edwards led the Eagles with 99 solo tackles last season, while Nakobe watched from the sideline biding his time.

The defense will have a lot of wrinkles from Georgia that are familiar to the Bulldogs which should assist in their transition from college to being starters in the NFL.

Dean had 71 and 72 total tackles in his last 2 seasons at Georgia but will go for 100 solo and 150 combined in his first year starting for the Eagles.

Nolan Smith exceeds all expectations with 7+ sacks

At the Combine Nolan Smith ran 4.39 in the 40-yard dash.

That was faster than Tennessee wideout Jalin Hyatt.

Nolan will use that unprecedented speed, and his freaky athletic vertical and broad jump ability, to be a dominant rotational edge rusher his rookie season.

Jalen Carter will have 10 TFLs and 5+ sacks

More Jalen Carter? Yes, please! Jalen will be DROY

The Eagles haven’t had a defensive rookie of the year since Reggie White in 1987.

Could Jalen Carter be next?

The Crystal Ball believes

Eagles cause another rule change

The Eagles one up last year’s Champ Game total by knocking out 3 QBs vs the Niners in the divisional round which causes another rule change to allow 2 additional QBs to dress on game day.

Just kidding, the Crystal Ball has got jokes this morning.

The real # 10

The Eagles Win the Super Bowl

The Bengals will finally get past the Chiefs, but not the Birds.

The Eagles win in another thriller.

44–37

As Always, Thank You for reading!

David

6/28/2023

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Last year’s

10 Foretellings The Crystal Ball Has Revealed For The Eagles 2022 Season