Last year we traded off on picks, this year David and Greg make each pick, going head-to-head on what they want to see happen for each team in the 1st round. Read more
My 10 targets for the Eagles in the 1st round, including trade ups, guys at pick 22, who could fall and be value, trade downs, and guys I'm passing on. Read more
We hear it all the time - Howie has never drafted a CB in the 1st round. But that doesn't matter because he values the position. And when you look at value and needs, 2024 could be the year he breaks tradition. Read more
Punters make sense to be drafted as they have some of the highest draft hit rates and value late in the draft. Here's a dive into which teams should be looking for a punter and who gets drafted. Read more
In my look at positional value and the draft, we've targeted taking CB and WR that are hard to get outside the draft and a LB that was value. Now we have options at an interesting point in the draft - who do you take? Read more
Part 3 in a look at positional value and the realities of free agency and the draft. Here's why positions like LB and SAF can be better value than the premium positions. Read more
Looking back at expected player values at picks 97 and 120 and example players, the Eagles really didn't give much at all up for Kenny Pickett. Read more
Part 2 in a look at positional value and the realities of free agency and the draft. Here is why I am turning a trade of one of our pass rushers into a WR. Read more
Part 1 in an Eagles mock draft series where I dive into the realities of different positions in free agency and the draft, and who I'm taking for the Eagles. In round 1, I'm taking the position that you cannot get elsewhere. Read more
The cap surprised higher but does that mean your team can start looking at the big free agent names? Not so much. Here's a look at what has happened historically with cap changes and what it likely means for 2024. Read more
Getting back into the draft process after a few weeks off.
These are 7 Edge rushers I have watched so far, many more to come.
Let me know in the comments who else I should start watching.
Penn State, Abdul Carter 2025 NFL Draft Prospect Has been great at rushing off the edge, and has an equally great first step off the snap. Displays athletic bend & fantastic closing speed Physical, instinctive, & breaks down plays well. Two-time All-Big Ten linebacker, moving to… pic.twitter.com/BIFxrNJwqW
James Pearce Jr Tennessee, Edge A potential number-one draft pick in the 2025 NFL Draft James is quick off the line, athletic, & flexible with a natural bend to get around the edge. Has a nasty spin move! Competitive, no quit, high motor, & uses leverage well.@Vol_Footballpic.twitter.com/dst2wFXnba
JT Tuimoloau Edge 2025 NFL Draft Prospect Another pass rusher with a crazy good spin move High-effort guy, dominant against the run, pursues ball carriers & sets the edge as well as anyone in his class Elite balance & control with a strong upper body and flexibility to get low… pic.twitter.com/dc0ftnhbXY
Jack Sawyer Edge 2025 NFL Draft Prospect Explosive first step & bursts Displays elite balance, upper body strength, agility, & instincts. A finisher who sets the edge well, above average vs run, 3 down player. Another Ohio St player who went back to school @OhioStateFBpic.twitter.com/mZ1Lxfxl8Q
Patrick Payton Edge 2025 NFL Draft Prospect Quick and violent hands Gets off the line quick, & uses those hands to get around the edge. Long arms, fast legs, gets to ball carries easily Strong core and lower body used to stand up or shed Elite instincts @FSUFootballpic.twitter.com/mkxrynOaJz
Princely Umanmielen Edge 2025 NFL Draft Prospect Instinctive player who gets off the snap really quick Always reading & anticipating 6'5 255, but packs a punch, violent Has a great spin move (seems to be a trend) Interesting prospect to watch develop hands & add lbs pic.twitter.com/8Q2QSZ27JC
Cashius Howell Edge OLB 2025 NFL Draft Prospect Transfer Texas A&M 13 games with Bowling Green in 2023, 9.5 sacks & 10.5 tackles for loss, with an 11.9% pressure rate He's one to watch this season to see how his play translates. I expect big things. Twitchy athlete who profiles… pic.twitter.com/m8hPZrgi87
David and Greg’s 2024 Dueling 1st Round Mock Draft
Screenshot
Pick
David
Greg
1
QB Caleb Williams
QB Drake Maye
2
QB Jayden Daniels
QB Caleb Williams
3
(trade NE) QB JJ McCarthy
QB Jayden Daniels
4
WR Marvin Harrison Jr
WR Marvin Harrison Jr
5
OT JC Latham
(trade LAC) QB JJ McCarthy
6
WR Malik Nabers
WR Malik Nabers
7
OT Joe Alt
OT Joe Alt
8
ED Dallas Turner
ED Laiatu Latu
9
DT Byron Murphy II
WR Rome Odunze
10
TE Brock Bowers
TE Brock Bowers
11
(trade MIN) QB Drake Maye
(trade MIN) OT JC Latham
12
(trade PHL) CB Terrion Arnold
DT Byron Murphy II
13
QB Michael Penix Jr
OT Amarius Mims
14
OL Olu Fashanu
(trade NO) CB Quinyon Mitchell
15
WR Rome Odunze
CB Nate Wiggins
16
EDGE Laiatu Latu
OL Graham Barton
17
CB Quinyon Mitchell
CB Terrion Arnold
18
OT Taliese Fuaga
OT Olu Fashanu
19
OT Tyler Guyton
ED Dallas Turner
20
OL Graham Barton
WR Xavier Worthy
21
OL Amarius Mims
(trade MIA) CB Kool-Aid McKinstry
22
(trade DEN) ED Jared Verse
(trade PHI) ED Jared Verse
23
(trade MIN) OT Jordan Morgan
(trade MIN) WR Xavier Legette
24
C Jackson Powers-Johnson (sad emoji)
(trade DAL) WR Adonai Mitchell
25
DB Cooper DeJean
(trade GB) WR Troy Franklin
26
ED Chop Robinson
IOL Jackson Powers-Johnson
27
DT Jer’Zhan Newton
ED Chris Braswell
28
WR Xavier Worthy
(trade BUF) OT Taliese Fuaga
29
CB Kool-Aid McKinstry
SAF Cooper DeJean
30
OT Kingsley Suamataia
OT Jordan Morgan
31
WR Nate Wiggins
OT Kingsley Suamataia
32
WR Ladd McConkey
WR Brian Thomas Jr.
Some quick observations:
7 of the same top 10 players – not sure if that is a high or low
Only 5 of the same exact picks, none after pick 11
9 taking the same positions for teams, 23 are different
David has 5 teams taking QBs and Greg has 4, but only 1 do we have the same player taken (JJ McCarthy to Minnesota)
1st rounders we each have the other doesn’t:
David – Ladd McConkey, Chop Robinson, Michael Penix, Tyler Guyton
Greg – Brian Thomas, Xavier Legette, Troy Franklin, Chris Braswell
My reasoning on the Eagles pick:
Greg: I’m sending the Saints back their pick and moving up for the opportunity to take the first CB and going with Quinyon Mitchell. This goes against a lot of what I believe with “don’t trade up for non-QBs” but before you hate it (as I know many do), three things:
I get ahead of the run on corners that is surely going to happen in the teens.
This is widely viewed as a thinner class with an earlier drop off of talent – if that is true, the 2nd rounder is likely worth less this year.
The above picks are obviously my picks, but when I look at what is available at 22, the CBs and pass rushers are gone, if you wanted an OT they are mostly gone… some WRs are available which I think is a likely source of value at their pick.
David: I have lobbied for the Eagles to select a CB in round one for many years, I think this draft had the value, the need, and the right player. The Eagles moving up for Terrion Arnold is the pick of the night. A lot of fans state that the Eagles have enough CB depth, I disagree. Darius Slay will be 34, and Bradberry may, or should, not even be on the team. Rodgers and Maddox are on 1-year deals and the team has no idea what they will get from either of them. Kelee did not get enough playing time last season, so he is a question mark as well. Terrion alleviates the questions and answers it by being a bonafide shutdown corner.
My personal favorite pick
Greg: I’ve wanted the Steelers to take OL for so long and feel like a hypocrite, but love Worthy there, especially with the OTs I like going above them.
David: The Bills selecting Xavier Worthy. They lose a dynamic playmaker in Diggs, but fill the position with another receiver who is younger, and cost-controlled. The Allen to Worthy connection will be something to watch over the next few seasons.
The “I wish I made that pick”
David: I would have loved the Eagles to get JPJ, and the fact Dallas snagged him makes it even harder to accept.
Greg: I love David having Buffalo take Xavier Worthy – I had him going higher, but if he drops there, it’s a great pickup by Buffalo and makes them dangerous.
My top “anti-consensus” pick
Greg: Starting off right at the top, I’ve written before on how infrequently the consensus top QB turns out to be the best guy. And while Caleb is talented, he causes a lot of pressure and isn’t a good pressure passer. So I’m taking Drake Maye.
David: Drake Maye falling to 11 for the New England Patriots is probably my most nonconsensus pick. NE trades down and still get their guy.
My “should be a 1st round guy” pick
Greg: I’ve got a couple, including Chris Braswell (only he and Latu have at least an 18% pressure rate with a 14% run stop rate) and Troy Franklin (highest EPA per route run in this class).
David: Darius Robinson should have been a 1st round pick in my mock. I have him ranked in the top 20 players and he deserves to be a round-one guy.
Philadelphia Eagles Only 2024 NFL Draft Tiers
102 players ranked by position & tier for the Philadelphia Eagles to select in the 2024 NFL Draft.
Who would you have?
The Tiers:
Tier Of Their Own: (2)
CB Terrion Arnold & CB Quinyon Mitchell
Tier One: (8)
DT Byron Murphy II, Edge Laiatu Latu TE Brock Bowers, CB Nate Wiggins, CB/S Cooper DeJean, OL Jackson Powers-Johnson Edge Jared Verse DL Darius Robinson
Tier Two: (20)
CB Kamari Lassiter, Max Melton, Mike Sainrsitil, TJ Tampa DL Michael Hall Jr, Jer’Zhan Newton, Braden Fiske EdgeChris Braswell, Adisa Isaac, Marshawn Kneeland, Chop Robinson LB Edgerrin Cooper, Junior Colson WR Xavier Worthy, Brian Thomas Jr, Ladd McConkey, Xavier Leggete, Troy Franklin OL Cooper Beebe S Javon Bullard
Tier Three: (19)
LB Trevin Wallace, Cedric Gray CB Andru Phillips WR Malachi Corley, Rickey Pearsall OL Christian Haynes, Dominick Puni S Beau Brade, Jaden Hicks, Cole Bishop OT Kiran Amegadjie RB Jaylen Wright TE Ben Sinnott EdgeJonah Elliss, Brandon Dorlus DL Maason Smith, T’Vondre Sweat, Kris Jenkins, Ruke Orhorhoro
Tier Four: (21)
S Dadrion Taylor-Demerson OL Christian Mahogany, OT Roger Rosengarten, Blake Fisher RB Audric Estime, Trey Benson TE Theo Johnson, Cade Stover WR Devontez Walker, Jermaine Burton, Javon Baker, Malik Washington EdgeAustin Booker DT DeWayne Carter, Mekhi Wingo QB Spencer Rattler CB Kris Abrams-Draine, Cam Hart, Khyree Jackson, Renardo Green, DJ James
Tier Five: (15)
Edge Mohamed Kamara, Javon Solomon, Jalyx Hunt, Gabriel Murphy DL Khristian Boyd RB Dylan Laube, Will Shipley TE Tip Reiman, TE/WR Johnny Wilson S Jaylin Simpson OL Isiah Adams, Beaux Limmer OT Matt Goncalves WR Jamari Thrash, Ainias Smith
The Rest: (17)
CB Chau Smith-Wade, Willie Drew LB Marist Liufau, Jaylan Ford, Ty’Ron Hopper S Tykee Smith, M Mustapha, Sione Vaki, Josh Proctor OT Javon Foster, Garrett Greenfield OL Javion Cohen RB Ray Davis WR Ryan Flournoy, Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint DL Keith Randolph Jr QB Joe Milton
David
As always, thank you for reading!
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Eagles 2024 Draft Targets: Trade Ups, Lucky Falls, Options at 22, and Who I’m Passing On
Here are the 11 draft targets I would have for the Eagles including:
Also at the end are some popular names I am not targeting for various reasons.
Thinking through options
Mock drafts are great but only speak to one outcome – you maybe trade up or down but still pick a single player without context of what other options were.
Here I’m trying to play out what could happen and how I would think – who would make me decide to trade up, what would cause me to trade down, and who I want.
BPA vs. targeting positions
Mocks also always look like you are focused on a specific position or need and ignoring BPA. Bad teams force a position or need, but teams don’t purely go after BPA – the way I’d explain Howie is “he takes the best player available at a position he values”. Teams also move around the draft to align value and what they are looking for.
In this, my targets here are heavy in the secondary and defensive line with 4 CBs, 2 pass rushers, and 1 DT. But I also try to show when I would take other positions with WR and OL showing up. And which I am not taking.
Trade ups
What happens: QBs, WRs, and OTs dominate the top of the draft, pushing down some defensive positions the Eagles value and have as long-term needs. And this is the most likely scenario in my opinion.
QBs, WRs, and OTs are projected to be 10 of the top 12 picks which pushes positions the Eagles probably want down. And I expect CB and DL to then have their run in the teens – 5 of the picks from 13-21 are projected to be CBs and DL.
This is the trade-up scenario. I posted a couple of weeks ago that sending picks 22 and 50 to Seattle for 16 and 81 works.
And here’s who I would trade-up for:
CB Quinyon Mitchell
He’s one of a couple guys you can count on outside EDP: 16
I see no way he gets near his current ADP of pick 16, but hey, Christian Gonzalez‘s pre-draft ADP was 9 last year and he went at 17. One potential negative is he will be 23 in July and some teams will avoid older prospects, but the CB-likely teams (IND, LAR, JAX, PIT) all have histories of drafting older prospects.
Quinyon wasn’t asked to play man at Toledo, may need some time, but he showed at the Senior Bowl he absolutely can. Add in his 23% PBU rate and you are hopefully getting a long-term answer at outside corner.
CB Terrion Arnold
The “Kill another Howie narrative” pick by taking a 1st round CB EDP: 15
Arnold is a guy the Eagles will love as he brings character and leadership. One of the only truly inside/outside versatile CBs in this class, he fits a long-term need as the Eagles will likely need 1-2 CBs next year.
EDGE Jared Verse
The “get our swagger back” pick EDP: 17
Howie said he wants to get the defensive swagger back and it played into the CJGJ signing. Here we get possibly the draft’s biggest trash talker and somebody that thrives punishing opponents. He gives me BG vibes listening to him talk about how much chatters during the game and enjoys getting under opponents’ skins.
And Verse is really good – he’s 95th percentile in every pass rush metric including a 21.8% win rate, only Latu is better this year. He’ll turn 24 during the season which will have a few teams skip over him.
Lucky falls
What happens: Every year there’s a guy or two that drops for various reasons – injury concerns, age, positional value, or just because other players are taken ahead of them.
Last year the Eagles benefited when both Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith fell to their picks. The Patriots got Christian Gonazlez at 17 when he was projected at 9. The Ravens got Kyle Hamilton at 14 when he was projected at 7. Who could fall enough this year to jump on?
TE Brock Bowers
The “so you’re saying there’s a chance” pick… EDP: 11
Yeah, probably not. I’m including Brock just because there’s been a lot of chatter on if the Eagles should take him if he falls. To be clear, I’d take him, but I don’t think there is any chance he falls despite him not testing or TE de-valuation. Past top TEs (Pitts, Hockenson) went right where they were expected to go.
EDGE Laiatu Latu*
The “asterisk” pick… EDP: 17
I would probably trade up for him. Since 2020, only Micah Parsons has a higher pressure rate than Latu’s 21% or his 4.6% sack rate. And only Micah and Nolan Smith beat his his 16.2% run stop rate. And, for those that hate our EDGE rushers dropping into coverage even though there’s no avoiding it, Latu may be the best in this class in coverage. He’s by far my favorite pass rusher in this class. However…
Two complaints you will hear on Latu – his age (he’ll be 24 in December) and the medicals. Of course his medicals must check out which none of us will know.
A quick note and maybe a different perspective on these older EDGE rushers, as I generally don’t want older prospects. It’s getting really hard for teams to even keep good pass rushers after their rookie deal – of the top 18 EDGEs drafted between 2018-20 that have hit the end of their rookie deal, 10 of them have left their drafting team with several forcing trades.
EDGE is becoming a position you have to continually restock – even if you can keep your guy, you will pay to keep them. And if you continually restock, is taking an older guy in the 1st with the 5th year option that bad of a plan?
Picks at 22
What happens: Maybe the top CBs and DL go earlier than expected, making a trade up too costly. But regardless, there are going to be good choices if the Eagles stay at 22.
CB Nate Wiggins
The “I’ll go to the grave on this one” pick EDP: 23
Wiggins has generated a ton of disagreement because of his size and run support. And a guy that most view as not a fit for Vic Fangio “because Wiggins is a man cover CB” even though Fangio has been 15th, 4th, and 13th in the league in man coverage utilization his last three seasons. Wiggins plays tough in coverage and sometimes it’s as simple as a player showing you with no projection needed. Against NFL talent, Wiggins shut down Keon, Legette, and Tez showing he can lock down big, physical, and fast WRs. On his run support? He can be better but this is overstated – the average CB makes one tackle attempt against the run per game in the NFL… At only 21 years old, he will continue to get better.
He’s a guy I’d trade up a bit for but since he’s projected at 23, I’ll leave him here in range of their pick.
My “this makes more sense than many think” pick EDP: 20
Byron Murphy was one of the first guys I wrote on this draft season (here) and would still be one of my favorite picks. Most don’t see this as a need with back-to-back years taking DT in the 1st, but two things:
Over the past two years we’ve lost Fletch and Hargrave and the depth after Jalen Carter, Jordan Davis, and Milt is un-proven
DT prices have gone up a ton – 30 year olds DJ Reader, Sheldon Rankins, and Grover Stewart all got $11-13M AAV this off-season
What if we can’t, or won’t, extend Milton Williams? We love Milt but he has never been above a 7% pass rush win rate, one of the lowest in the league at DT – he’s assumed to get an extension but honestly I don’t think I’d give him a deal if he will go above $10-12M.
Murphy’s stats compare well with the best DTs from recent drafts – since 2019 only Quinnen Williams was better than Byron’s 15% pressure, 12% run stop, and 2.6% sack rates.
CB Kool-Aid McKinstry
The “need to see the CT scan” pick EDP: 27
Another guy that is viewed as a high likelihood pick with the recent top-30 visit. Like Latu, this depends on medicals – I end up reading medical studies every year on various injuries and Jones fractures are interesting. A 2018 study showed players with Jones fractures have:
35% decrease in performance over the first two years post surgery with fewer games started
Performance decreases are (unsurprisingly) greater for skill positions with WR and RB having 35-60% decreases (CBs are not broken out from SAFs in this study)
15-56% have seen incomplete healing depending on the location of the break (medial and dorsal are lower, plantar and lateral are higher)
Re-fracture rates are low at 4-12%
Some have returned from Jones fractures well (Edelman, Deebo) while others haven’t (Dez Bryant). From my weekend medical self-training, two things are critical – first, taking proper time to recover which, given it’s the off-season, should be easy for Kool-Aid and, second, ensuring complete healing. The real risk is incomplete healing which is why the medical are so important.
It’s a risk for a top pick. But when Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr both point to Kool-Aid as the best corner they faced, it’s worth having him on the list. If the CT shows it’s healed, draft him.
Trade downs
What happens: We all see this with sims where the draft goes poorly and our guys go early. And maybe a trade-up just isn’t possible. And here, the Eagles have some good options at some of the deepest positions in the draft if they trade down.
WR Xavier Worthy
The “super offense” pick EDP: 35
Like DT, most see as not the biggest need but this would be one of my favorite picks they could make. As I wrote in my positional mock, WR is one of the handful of positions you just can’t get anywhere but the draft. The Eagles could use deep speed and I’d love to see defenses continually forced into “which bad decision do I make” trying to defend Worthy’s speed, AJ and DeVonta, Saquon, Goedert, and oh Hurts can still make you pay and needs to be watched.
WR Troy Franklin
The “you are getting him on sale this year” pick EDP: 41
Projected at pick 41 which I still don’t buy, but this WR class is insane and there’s going to be R1 talents that drop into the 2nd. Taking WRs that can beat man coverage usually serves you well and he’s behind only Malik Nabers in this class at 4.02 YPRR. And against single coverage, he’s one of the best in recent drafts, behind only DeVonta, Tee Higgins, and Ja’Marr Chase.
OL Graham Barton
The “throw the OL crowd a bone” pick EDP: 30
I’ve been vocal that I don’t love OL options in the 1st and I still don’t, but, I’ll throw everybody a bone here. If we did take OL, here’s a guy I could get behind with a trade down.
So many write him off as a tackle, but he may be able to play there – he and Zach Tom have very similar measurables. He’s just so clean, plays nasty, won’t turn 22 until June, and is the only guy in this class that truly may bring 5 position versatility. You have to believe he has some ability at OT to take him here otherwise it just isn’t the right value.
Some popular picks I’m passing on
You may disagree with some of the guys I have below which is fine. I’ve written several times on how almost half of the 1st round is wrong every draft – some are due to injuries and some were overlooked issues. Often players just have wider ranges of outcomes which is ignored as pre-draft evals typically fall into “good” or “bad”.
These aren’t guys I think are bad, but are picks that I just don’t like the value on, don’t like the fit to Philly, or think have extra risk:
Just about any tackle
Sure take one on day 2, but you cannot sit a premium pick You can never say “never” on a premium position as there could always be an overwhelming BPA available. Yes, you would take Alt but he’s going way above us. For guys possibly in our range:
JC Latham (EDP 18) – A lot of people love Latham because he’s a classic RT and he’s very good, but he doesn’t have the movement skills Philly is used to with Mailata and Lane.
Troy Fautanu (EDP 19)- I’ve written why I wouldn’t take him high, his film against good pass rushers is really concerning on the edge. He’s a guard only in my opinion.
Amarius Mims (EDP 24) – He’s young, big, moves really well and would do well developing under Stoutland. Of all the guys, this pick is the one I would hate the least but I’d also be very surprised if he wasn’t the Steelers pick at 20.
Tyler Guyton (EDP 29) – Another like Mims that is young and under-developed but has the size and athleticism Philly would want.
It would take a great value being there, the board falling completely wrong for the Eagles.
I may eat these words which is fine, but I don’t buy that the Eagles are seriously looking at OT in R1 and think it’s just scouting and maybe misdirection. I’ve written so much on this and won’t repeat it, but you can see my reasons here.
A guy like Kiran Amegadjie or Kingsley Suamataia, both young and requiring development but the size and feet needed, are just better value on day 2.
Cooper DeJean
If you hated our CBs playing 10 yards off but you love DeJean… A highly loved prospect for Philly, he’s a guy I’ve struggled on more than almost anybody else and just re-watched him for the 3rd time and I could be wrong here.
He had a really bad game against Ohio State where he could not stay attached to WRs, but many guys have looked bad against the Buckeyes, so I’ll give him a break there.
To me, Wisconsin is the most useful game to watch as he played more press and traditional CB than usual. He didn’t even go against their top WR Will Pauling but continually gave up separation on breaks to Bryson Green. For the game, he allowed 62 yards on 3 catches but there were 3 poor throws/drops where he was beaten and would have made his number even worse.
He has athleticism and good recognition, he would be a good safety or nickel, but just don’t see him as an outside CB and if I am drafting a CB in R1, it’s going to be somebody on the outside.
Kamari Lassiter / Ennis Rakestraw
Two CBs with really concerning testing numbers Both were projected R1 guys and their ADPs have fallen recently, but they remain popular Eagles targets in a trade down. But it’s hard to find an NFL CB that has been successful with their testing numbers – Lassiter is a 4.6+ guy, Rakestraw a mid 4.5s, and both have 10-yard splits in the upper 1.5s. Pros with similar numbers are limited to Rasul Douglas and Mike Hilton. That’s it.
They may end up nickels, but I’m not taking non-outside CBs with testing questions this high.
Chop Robinson
Traits but where’s the production He’s explosive but his production is really concerning as he always seems to be a guy near, but not making, the play – over his 3 year college career and 1,021 snaps, he has 10 sacks and 40 tackles total.
Safeties
Not a position of value Whether you are good with the Eagles safeties right now or not, it’s not a position you take here. First, no safety in this class is graded in the 1st round and, second, safety is in the middle of a multi-year devaluation in free agency.
The Eagles made the 2nd biggest signing this offseason with CJGJ at $9M… you could have gotten Kamren Curl for $4.5M or Jordan Fuller for $3.25M. And I still wonder if Avonte was brought back as much for a safety insurance policy as he was for nickel.
Edgerrin Cooper (or any LB)
Just no… You still see people every day calling for the Eagles to take Edgerrin Cooper in the 1st because” it’s our biggest need”. Just no… that’s not how you draft. And I’m not even sure he’s the best LB in this class – I’d take Junior Colson on day two over Cooper high.
That’s who I am prioritizing (and not prioritizing) in the 1st round. A lot of these guys will go above them, but that’s the point – it’s my list of the best guys that I would want and where. Not all will be there but somebody will be.
If you haven’t seen David’s draft tiers, check it out – it is the culmination of a tremendous amount of work and film watching and a good guide of player value.
He and I align on most, but not every, guy which is the way it should be. But to sum up the above, I have:
Both of his “Tier of their own” guys (Terrion and Quinyon)
5 of his 8 “Tier 1” guys
2 of his 20 “Tier 2” guys
Fly Eagles fly, and can’t wait to see the draft.
The Best 2024 Eagles Mock Draft You Will Read All Year
The Eagles head into the 2024 draft with very few holes, but a need to upgrade some positions. Howie has done a great job of filling the roster with talented free-agents and now he wants week one production from his top few picks. The Birds are all in for a Super Bowl run!
Round One pick 22- Bobby Boucher LB South Central Louisianna
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The Eagles finally address the elephant in the (draft) room. After 40 years of not drafting an off-ball linebacker in round one, Howie Roseman shocks the draft world by selecting one of the most violent LBs to come out of college in a long, long time. If you do not believe in Bobby and his Mama, then you’re wrong, Colonel Sanders.
Round Two pick 50- Vontae Mack LB Ohio State
The Eagles not only use a first-round pick at LB they use one of their valuable second-round picks as well, fixing the weakest linebacker core the NFL had in 2023. For a fanbase that has begged the team to draft LBers, they have now added the 2 best in the draft. This duo has the potential to be the best LB core in franchise history, and maybe the league.
Round Two pick 53- Al Bundy RB Polk High
Someone has taken over Howie’s body. After unprecedently drafting LBs back to back, he again does the unthinkable and selects a running back before addressing the trenches. Bundy has the “it” factor and has come up with his biggest efforts in the biggest moments. His 4 TD performance in the city championship is the stuff of legends. To this day, you can not go anywhere in Polk County without hearing a bartender (or a local shoe salesman) bring up their local hero’s performance. Bundy is the highest RB they have selected in the draft since Miles Sanders in 2019.
Round Four Pick 120- DL Becky “IceBox” O’Shea
The trenches cometh! O’Shea has dominated at every level since helping her dad and his ‘Little Giants’ beat the ‘Pee-Wee Cowboys’. She will be the first female player in Philadelphia Eagles history and is relishing her role and the responsibility that comes along with it. Pairing O’Shea next to Jalen Carter for the next 5 years will cause many sleepless nights for opposing offensive coordinators. Interior pressure is going to be coming.
TRADE ALERT
The Eagles trade a 2025 RD5 pick and CB James Bradberry Jr, to the Arizona Cardinals for WR Rod Tidwell.
Rod ‘Show Me The Money’ Tidwell is now a Philadelphia Eagle! Howie traded for the disgruntled wideout after former Eagles DC Jon Gannon, now Arizona Cardinals Heah Coach, refused to pay their emerging star receiver. Agent Jerry McGuire has a lot of clients on the Eagles and he and Howie worked out an extension before announcing the deal. The Eagles have a new WR3!
Round Five Pick 161 – Uncle Rico QB
The Eagles traded for Kenny Pickett, and they solidified their backup for Jalen Hurts over the next 2 seasons, but they also feel comfortable drafting the rawest talent at the position to complete with Tanner McKee as QB3. Rico is a project to be sure, but if the Eagles QB coach can harness and refine his skills, they could have the best QB in the 2024 class on their hands. Rico dreamed of winning the BCS championship for the University of Idaho but now has his sights set on an NFL Super Bowl. Long live the QB factory.
Round Five pick 171- Forrest Gump KR Alabama
The Eagles have not had a game-breaking returner in decades, if ever, and now they have the most productive kick-off returner in college football history. With the new NFL kick-off rules, Gump could be a game-changer. A heartfelt story of a determined kid who wore braces on his legs as a child and persevered to learn how to walk, run, and then become the greatest kick-returner in college football history. Forrest is all heart and Eagles fans can’t wait to reciprocate the love. Gump said he looked forward to “running”.
Round Six Pick 172- Stefan Djordjevic CB
Undersized, sure, but Howie is still refusing to use a high-premium pick at the corner position. He throws another dart at a player who has traits and also some physical limitations. Time will tell if Roseman finally lands an everyday starter from his picks of misfit corners.
Round Six pick 210 Brian “Smash” Williams RB Dillon Panthers HS
The Eagles already drafted one running back, but the departure of D’Andre Swift, Boston Scott, and Rashaad Penny left many holes to fill, and the Eagles grabbed 2 cost-controlled backs rather than dipping back into free agency for another. (after signing Saquon Barkley) The Eagles will be patient in developing Smash who had to overcome challenges he faced in High School before playing for Texas A&M University the past 2 seasons. The pick also saves the Eagles valuable cap space that will be used to extend DeVonta Smith.
David
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Draft Profile: OT Troy Fautanu, Washington
OT was the first draft position I watched back in October and haven’t watched a ton since then, moving on to other positions. But over the past couple of days I just went back to watch Troy Fautanu because of the interest the Eagles have shown in him.
Among fans, Fautanu is maybe the poster boy for the “play him at RG and then he moves over after Lane retires to be our franchise RT” draft strategy. This view is enticing but I’ve been vocal questioning it for two reasons:
People way too easily make the assumption that somebody will just slide into RG, fill in as an OT backup if Lane or Mailata goes down, and then become our franchise, Lane-replacing RT down the road – switching positions is hard
Lane has said he wants to play out this contract which is 3 years and the view that “he is always hurt” is wrong – he’s played 87% of snaps since 2020, right with the top OTs
Of course you don’t force a position or pick, but teams can move up or down in the draft to align need and value (which the Eagles have done almost every year). And while I don’t think an OT makes any sense, I wanted to get my head around it as the Eagles are showing a lot of interest in Fautanu and OTs in general.
And I have to say I don’t see Fautanu as an NFL tackle or a 1st round pick. Or, if you don’t agree and are more positive, there are at least questions.
Looking for matchups
Overall, if you just looked at Fautanu’s stats, you’d like a lot about him. He’s played a ton with 623 pass blocking snaps, more than anybody in this class except linemate Roger Rosengarten who beats him by 2 snaps. And Fautanu has an 88.2 pass blocking grade, but a much lower 62.6 run blocking grade.
But I was looking for matchups with future NFL pass rushers. I value matchups a lot – you don’t always get them, but when you do they are great to see players up against future NFL players. And it’s really hard to find Fautanu vs. good pass rushers. They didn’t play UCLA this year so no Latu or Murphy in 2023.
UCLA 2022
But they did play UCLA in 2022 where Fautanu had plenty of reps against Grayson Murphy and Latu. And they weren’t good. On 21 pass protection snaps, Fautanu allowed 4 pressures and got called for 2 holds.
Clip 1: Against Latu, maybe Fautanu trips but Latu gets past him
Clips 2-3: Two more snaps against Latu, both of these drew holding calls.
I think Latu is the best pass rusher in this class, but he’s still a college player. What is Fautanu going to look like against Micah and Nick Bosa and DeMarcus Lawrence?
Clips 4-7: Now 4 snaps against Grayson Murphy, a very good pass rusher but a guy projected to go mid day three. On the first snap, Murphy pulls Fautanu off balance and gets past him, the second Fautanu gets beat inside (which you see way too often on his film), and then two snaps where he just doesn’t hold blocks.
You will hear “block with your feet” and too often Fautanu’s feet are out of position and he is trying to use his length. You see this in some of the above clips.
Utah 2023
The other game I wanted to see was Utah in 2023 as I like Jonah Elliss a lot. But Fautanu rarely went up against Elliss so there wasn’t much to go on there. But here’s a clip against Connor O’Toole where Fautanu at LT is again beaten inside. O’Toole is a decent pass rusher but not anywhere near Latu or Murphy.
Texas 2023
One last clip from this year’s college playoffs. Texas has good interior defenders but nothing great on the EDGE, but I wanted to see Fautanu against Byron Murphy II or T’Vondre Sweat since many are projecting Fautanu to OG.
Here, Fautanu has help and Byron Murphy pulls past him. Fautanu probably holds him on his way to the QB (no flag was thrown).
Final thoughts
I hate posting about guys issues and it’s not my intent. I actually hope I’m wrong, but there is so much momentum on Fautanu and in my opinion, is not the elite prospect many have him as. I don’t see him as a tackle (which many don’t have him listed there, despite having the arm length):
Film vs. NFL EDGE rushers: He has good film, anybody that would say he doesn’t is wrong. But I was specifically looking for him vs. NFL EDGE rushers. There just isn’t much film because Washington didn’t go up against top EDGE rushers this year.
Difficulty of his assignments: Arjun Menon just posted this class’s OTs and how often they were left on an island. Fautanu is last at 53.7% of the time. I didn’t specifically chart this but came away thinking “he has help half the time”, which was right.
Time to throw: Add in that Michael Penix threw at one of the quicker rates in college, and fastest of this class’s QBs at an average of 2.68 seconds and 2.43 seconds when not under pressure and their OL just wasn’t asked to block super long.
Penalties: I mentioned the two holding calls against Latu, but Fautanu has 15 penalties over the past two seasons (14 enforced and another that was declined) on just over 1,200 snaps. He’s not alone here as some other top guys have racked up a bunch, but it’s something to note.
Why the “Howie Doesn’t Draft CBs in the 1st Round” View Could be Wrong
We all know the accepted draft truths on Howie:
He doesn’t draft running backs, linebackers, or safeties high
Just bet on “the trenches!”
And Howie has never drafted a 1st round corner
No, he never has. But just because he hasn’t doesn’t mean he won’t. Just like he dispelled “the Eagles don’t value running backs” by signing Saquon Barkley, I think this too will fall.
Howie values CB, he just hasn’t drafted it (yet)
There are positions that Howie hasn’t drafted in the 1st because he generally doesn’t value them that high. CB isn’t one of them.
Howie (rightly) doesn’t value RBs, LBs, or SAFs high because they are all comparatively easy and cheap to get in free agency or later in the draft. But the difference with CB is he absolutely values the position.
Just look at what they have spent on CBs. In 2020 they traded for Darius Slay and immediately made him the 4th highest paid CB in the league. The past 3 years, the Eagles have been in the top-10 in the league, including 4th most last season, in amount of cap spent on CBs.
And, we all mock interior OL to them in the 1st because “the trenches”, but Howie has only taken one guard in the 1st (the fireman in 2011) and that wasn’t even Howie’s draft, that was Reid’s. Guards and centers he drafts heavily on day 2.
But maybe Howie’s draft boards were right all along…
Sometimes I think I might be president of the “Draft a Corner” movement as I’ve wanted Howie to invest in a top CB the past three drafts.
But it’s hard to argue with Howie’s picks, especially when you look at which CBs were available at their picks.
Here are the Eagles picks since Howie took back control in 2016 along with the best available CBs based on consensus pre-draft ranking (I’m not cherry-picking surprise later round guys like Tariq Woolen or Jaylon Johnson that everybody passed on in the 1st). The numbers are the player value percentile (higher number is better):
Eagles R1 Pick
(value percentile)
Best Available CBs
(value percentile)
2016
Carson Wentz (74)
Jalen Ramsey (97) Vernon Hargraves (48)
2017
Derek Barnett (53)
Marlon Humphrey (90) Adoree Jackson (65)
2018
N/A – no R1 pick
2019
Andre Dillard (34)
Deandre Baker (27)
2020
Jalen Reagor (39)
Noah Igbinoghene (20) Jeff Gladney (27)
2021
DeVonta Smith (92)
Caleb Farley (6)
Greg Newsome (68)
2022
Jordan Davis (50)
Trent McDuffie (95)
Andrew Booth (19)
2023
Jalen Carter
Christian Gonzalez
Nolan Smith
Joey Porter Jr
Ignore 2016 as they were all-in on a QB that year, but look at the consensus “best available” CBs available these years. Who would you actually want at CB?
In 2019, as big of a miss as Andre Dillard turned out to be, pre-draft #27 ranked prospect Deandre Baker was worse. He started 17 games over 3 years, allowing a career 128 passer-rating, and is out of the league.
In 2020, the Eagles were never looking at CB but just for kicks, the best available corners were two 20th percentile guys in Igbinoghene and Gladney. Again, amazingly worse than even the Eagles bad pick or Reagor.
2021 was the same – Newsome would have been a decent pick, but nowhere near DeVonta.
There are a few years you could question, though, specifically 2017, 2022, and 2023.
Let’s look at them:
2017: The year they may have missed out on their corner
I asked TheHonestNFL on the Eagle’s willingness to take a CB and he said there have been several Howie would have drafted, including Marshon Lattimore in 2017. Lattimore went three picks ahead of the Eagles pick, who then took Derek Barnett.
Looking back it’s easy to say they could have then taken Marlon Humphrey who went at 16 and turned out to be a much better pro (90th percentile player), but pre-draft consensus had Barnett as a higher ranked player. Add in that the Eagles were expecting to lose pass rushers Chris Long, Vinny Curry, and Connor Barwin and going EDGE made sense.
2022: Seeking a specific piece, this is the year to possibly criticize
After bringing in a Fangio-style defense, I think everybody knew the Eagles were going to take their run-stuffing, two-gapping NT in the 1st. And on the board for the Chiefs – the top team in the league in draft value over expected since 2020 – was my pre-draft crush Trent McDuffie. I really liked the Davis pick, we all did, but I wanted McDuffie that year.
2023: Good CBs were available but Howie made the right picks
With two picks last year, the first one was a no-brainer as Jalen Carter miraculously fell to them. I loved Christian Gonzalez, but you take Carter there.
At their second pick at 30, the Eagles again had luck as Nolan Smith fell to them. The Eagles did visit heavily with CBs pre-draft, meeting with Emmanuel Forbes, Deonte Banks, Kelee Ringo, and Joey Porter Jr, and you could make a case for Porter who turned out to be one of the league’s better CBs. But, again, the Eagles pick made sense.
I don’t put a ton of stock in rumors immediately ahead of the draft, but Philly is rumored to be poking around for Seattle’s pick at 16. If this is true, to me it means the Eagles could be moving up for CB or OL.
Here are the teams from 17 to 21 and what they are likely to take – both OL and CB have a chance at runs here:
Pick
Team
Likely Positions
17
CB, WR
18
OT, DT
19
EDGE, CB
20
WR, OL, CB
21
IOL, EDGE, CB
I have said throughout the draft season that I thought pass rusher was the Eagles most likely pick but two things:
They signed Bryce Huff to a multi-year deal and still could extend Sweat. With Nolan set to play more, they have a good rotation here.
And I actually think EDGE is better value on day two. Dallas Turner and Jared Verse are projected to go in the top 12, which then brings you to:
Laiatu Latu – I love him but will turn 24 this season and has medical concerns
Chop Robinson – I personally don’t love him in the 1st round and not that high
Darius Robinson – Interesting but somebody that isn’t a pure EDGE
On day two, you start getting guys like Chris Braswell, Marshawn Kneeland (who they have shown interest in), Adisa Isaac (again, have shown interest), Bralen Trice, and Jonah Elliss which are all better value in my opinion.
A CB the Eagles will love
If you follow me, you know I love Clemson’s Nate Wiggins and he will be there in this range. And the Eagles supposedly have shown a lot of interest in the uber-versatile Cooper DeJean.
But Terrion Arnold is going to be a guy that the Eagles love. And I could see him being their target if they do move up.
Besides being a top CB, he brings incredible intangibles and leadership that they always value. At the Combine, he spoke about his drive (and mentions current Eagle Eli Ricks):
I write it down every day. Eli Ricks, that’s my brother. But I mean, when I got benched and replaced by him, it motivated me. I write it down every day and I refuse to ever let that happen again.”
And while this is a deep CB class, it doesn’t have a lot of inside-outside versatility, which Terrion does:
When I’m on the field, I feel like I can play any position. Especially in the secondary, when I line up in the slot, I know I’m kinda like an outside linebacker. I have to feel the run, set edges, take on blocks, and I have to cover.
But we just re-signed Avonte and may be set at CB
Maybe the Eagles think they are set, but I don’t think so, and I don’t think they think it either. Especially at outside corner.
Slay is locked but will be gone after this season just because of his cap hit
JBJ should be gone this year and I think still likely will be as I don’t see him being one of the top 6 or 7 CBs
Kelee will get his shot and showed enough, although I still have some worries that his change of direction limitations could be exposed
Rodgers is an exciting add but on a one year deal and is still not re-instated
Ricks and Jobe are not starters – you cannot find a good starter in the league with their athletic profiles
They have a ton of other guys, but they are all nickels or depth:
Avonte was signed but I wonder if he is partly here as safety depth more than anything
Tyler Hall was brought in, but he’s barely played
And then you have Zech, Mario Goodrich, and Tiawan Mullen which I doubt any make the roster
There truthfully isn’t a guy above that would prevent you from drafting a great player you really liked.
And look at this past free agency – there wasn’t one CB you would want. Next year you have Surtain and Horn hitting free agency, but if history holds, they will either be extended (likely) or traded and never hit free agency.
The Eagles still absolutely need at least one outside CB for 2025 and either get it in the draft, hope they get multiple of these young guys to hit, or have to re-sign Rodgers (assuming he is still good).
I may be kidding myself again, but in past years I wanted a CB but didn’t think it was likely. This year, I actually think CB is a highly likely pick. Terrion Arnold, Cooper DeJean, Quinyon Mitchell, or Nate Wiggins should all be serious considerations this year.
We shall see in a few weeks.
2024 NFL Top 75 Draft Prospects
Photo is from PFF
1- Marvin Harrison Jr, WR Ohio St
2- Malik Nabers, WR LSU
3- Brock Bowers, TE Georgia
4- Joe Alt, OT Notre Dame
5- Terrion Arnold, CB Alabama
6- Laiatu Latu, Edge UCLA
7- Jared Verse, Edge Florida State
8- Rome Odunze, WR Washington
9- Olu Fashanu, OT Penn State
10- Quinyon Mitchell, CB Toldeo
11- Dallas Turner, Edge Alabama
12- Drake Maye, QB North Carolina
13- Taliese Fuaga, OT Oregon State
14- Jackson Powers-Johnson, iOL Oregon
15- Byron Murphy II, DT Texas
16- Nate Wiggins, CB Clemson
17- JC Latham, OT Alabama
18- Cooper Dejean, DB Iowa
19- Darius Robinson, DL Missouri
20- Brian Thomas Jr, WR LSU
21- Ladd McConkey, WR Georgia
22- JJ McCarthy QB Michigan
23- Troy Fautanu, OL Washington
24- Tyler Guyton, OT Oklahoma
25- Chop Robinson, Edge Penn St
26- Graham Barton, iOL Duke
27- Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB Alabama
28- Xavier Worthy, WR Texas
29- Caleb Williams, QB USC
30- Jer’Zhan Newton, DL Illinois
31- Adonai Mitchell, WR Texas
32- Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
33- Edgerrin Cooper, LB Texas A&M
34- Amarius Mims, OT Georgia
35- Kamari Lassiter, CB Georgia
36- Troy Franklin, WR Oregon
37- Braden Fiske, DT Florida State
38- Enniss Rakestraw Jr, CB Missouri
39- Cooper Beebe, OL Kansas
40- Jordan Morgan, OT Arizona
41- Payton Wilson, LB NC State
42- Michael Hall Jr, DL Ohio St
43- Junior Colson, LB Michigan
44- Chris Braswell Edge Alabama
45- Javon Bullard, S Georgia
46- Kingsley Suamataia, OT BYU
47- TJ Tampa, CB Iowa State
48- Tyler Nubin, S Minnesota
49- Malachi Corley, WR Western Kentucky
50- T’Vondre Sweat, DL Texas
51- Xavier Leggette, WR South Carolina
52- Keon Coleman, WR Florida ST
53- Roman Wilson, WR Michigan
54- Marshawn Kneeland, Edge Western Michigan
55- Mike Sainristil, CB Michigan
56- Zach Frazier, C West Virginia
57- Adissa Isaac, EDGE Penn St
58- Ja’Tavion Sanders, TE Texas
59- Kris Jenkins, DT Michigan
60- Jaylen Wright, RB Tennessee
61- Bo Nix, QB Oregon
62- Bralen Trice, Edge Washington
63- Michael Penix Jr, QB Washington
64- Christian Haynes, OL Connecticut
65- Brandon Dorlus, Edge Oregon
66- Ruke Orhorhoro, DT Clemson
67- Patrick Paul, OT Houston
68- Ricky Pearsall, WR Florida
69- Ja’lynn Polk, WR Washington
70- Max Melton CB, Rutgers
71- Calen Bullock, S USC
72- Kiran Amegadjie, OT Yale
73- Jaden Hicks, S Washington St
74- Beau Brade, S Maryland
75- Malik Washington WR, Virginia
Offense: 40
QB: 6
WR: 15
RB: 1
TE: 2
OT: 10
iOL: 6
Defense: 35
Edge: 10
iDL: 7
O-B LB: 3
S: 6
CB: 9
NOTES
Many on the list are here due to traits and projections, not just their college production. This is not indicative of how I think they will be drafted. Especially at the Quarterback position, they will go much higher.
Jonathan Brooks, RB Texas, only missed due to his injury.
Dadrion Taylor-Demerson and Cole Bishop missed the top 75, but could surprise many people with how high they are selected.
Christian Mahogany is worthy of a top 3-round investment and was also a last-minute decision to leave off.
Jermaine Burton and Javon Barker could both be day 2 selections.
Ben Sinnott and Cade Stover are both right outside, still 3rd Rd value.
Roger Rosengarten and Blake Fisher are two more players I have in the top 100, but I could not find room in my top 75. Still wanted to shout them out.
David
This is for you Bubs, RIP Brother!
As always, thank you for reading!
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I ranked 102, here are the others
The 2024 Punter Mock Draft: Which Teams Need One, Who Gets Drafted
If you have followed me for any time, you know one of my controversial-to-many takes is that teams in need of a punter should draft them. Player hit rates are so low late in the draft that using the opportunity to take the best punter is almost always better value than EDGE number 25.
And now it’s time to see who the top punters in this class are and who should be taking one.
Looking back at last year
Who I thought needed a punter last year
While I will always stand by the value of drafting punters, there has to be a need. Last year there were a few obvious teams that were going to add a punter and had GMs with a history of drafting specialists.
The Patriots topped the list as a lock to draft one and took Bryce Baringer, first off the board at pick 191.
The Rams and Bengals became obvious teams that were going to upgrade as they had punter issues and took guys in succession at picks 216 and 220 in the draft.
I also had Arizona, Green Bay, Houston, Washington, and of course, Philly on my list of teams that had reason to be in the mix to take a punter.
Arizona and Green Bay avoided the draft, the Cards signing Blake Gillikin from New Orleans and Green Bay signing UDFA Daniel Whelan.
Houston and Washington both wrongly rolled with what they had, with Houston now making the special teams splash of the off-season, signing legend Tommy Townsend and Washington continuing to Washington.
And the Eagles, who I perpetually fool myself thinking they would draft one, instead grabbed Braden Mann part-way into the season and finally solved their punting issue.
It’s likely going to be a down year as not many teams need a punter
The recent punter bull market has produced 10 starting punters over the past two drafts. Add in 2022 pick Matt Araiza who is getting his delayed pro shot in KC, and that could be 11.
For a position with a long average career length, it’s crazy to have a third of the league set from just two draft classes. But this success is most likely going to soften the 2024 market as there just aren’t many teams that scream “need a punter”.
Only twice since 2000 have no punters been drafted – 2011 and 2017. Despite a lack of glaring needs in the league, somebody will probably still be drafted given the value. But if there’s a year that’s a risk of none getting selected, 2024 could be it.
Here’s how I think about the teams that could take one:
Teams seeking a Super Bowl with a punter problem:
This was the Ravens and Bills in 2022 and Bengals last year. But there isn’t as definite of a list this year as the good and ascending teams all look set:
The Ravens, 49ers, Lions, and Eagles have their punters
Add in Dallas who has their punter as they seek their elusive wildcard win
Houston, ending the season as probably the best team that needed a punter, made the biggest specialist move of the off-season, signing Tommy Townsend
There are two teams that could fit here though:
Kansas City Chiefs
Punt rank: ? The Chiefs look set as they immediately signed Matt Araiza after Townsend left, but will they just hand over the starting job to a guy that hasn’t kicked in a couple of years?
Andy Reid and Brett Veach have no history of drafting specialists and doubt they start now especially with only no 6th round pick this year. But in a year where punters drop, they could look to UDFA and get a bargain.
Cincinnati Bengals
Punt rank: 32nd They just drafted Brad Robbins who is an interesting case that I wrote about in last year’s punter mock draft. Before his injury, in college Robbins projected well with a 4.37 hangtime and 47.6 yard average but after his injury both dropped (4.21 and 41.0). He unfortunately hasn’t bounced back to pre-injury levels in the NFL, averaging a 4.24 hangtime and 44.3 average distance, the lowest he’s been since 2020.
I’m a bit surprised they didn’t do something in the offseason, but here we are. They have two picks in both the 6th and 7th rounds, making the Bengals a team with ammunition to get a punter once again.
Teams spending too much on a punter:
It’s great if you have a good punter and are spending on them. But there’s no reason to spend a lot when you don’t have a top-of-the-league punter. And there’s a repeat offender in this category:
Washington Commanders
Punt rank: 24th For the second year in a row, the Commanders top this list. Tress Way is a bottom-10 punter with a $3.75M cap hit in 2024, 3rd highest in the league.
They have two picks in the 5th round (139 and 152) and one in the 7th (222). New GM Adam Peters has some history drafting punters, taking Mitch Wishnowsky in 2019 while he was VP of Player Personnel for the 49ers.
Teams that could or should upgrade:
Chicago Bears
Punt rank: 31st GM Ryan Poles has drafted a punter, the issue is it was two years ago and isn’t working. Trenton Gill, remains one of the lowest graded punters in the league and had the second most shanks in the league. Punters often take a year to get going but this is back-to-back years on a guy that didn’t even profile as a draftable punter.
The Bears should be the lock this year to take a punter, but there’s a “but”… they have no picks after pick 122. They should see themselves as an ascending team looking to upgrade here, but will have to acquire a later pick or look to the UDFA market.
New Orleans Saints
Punt rank: 28th I don’t see the Saints as likely, but I have them here for two reasons. First, they may like Lou Hedley, but the 30-year old rookie hasn’t been good. And second, the Saints have a ton of late draft capital with 7 picks from 150 on.
GM Mickey Loomis has drafted a punter, but it was all the way back in 2009 when the Saints drafted Thomas Morstead. They should draft a punter.
And now, the 2024 Punter Mock Draft
A shocker to start!
R6-188: Chicago Bears – Austin McNamara, Texas Tech
I won’t over-stress on the actual move, but the Bears, lacking any picks late in the draft, end up with a pick at 188 from an earlier trade with Houston.
Every year there’s a shock to consensus on the first punter off the board – 2023 was Bryce Baringer and 2022 was my top punter Jordan Stout. This year continues with the Bears taking Texas Tech’s Austin McNamara over Ray Guy Award winner Tory Taylor.
Every year I insanely chart every punt for the top punting prospects and McNamara is my top punter. Here’s why:
Age: McNamara just turned 23 years old, giving the Bears a potential long-term answer at punter. Many don’t know that Tory Taylor, as good as he is, will turn 27 during training camp.
Hangtime: McNamara has a pro-level hangtime at 4.25 seconds, best in this class. Since 2020, the top drafted punters have averaged almost 4.27 seconds of hangtime.
Short-field punting: I’ve written before on the value of punts and the most valuable ones are when you pin the opponent deep – punts pinned inside the 10 yardline are worth almost a full point more than touchbacks. And nobody has been better here than McNamara:
71% of his short-field punts were downed inside the 10 yard line (5 of 7) with another downed at the 12, double anybody else.
Gained 80% of yards (how close you start the receiving team to their own goal line compared to where the punt was from) when punting from a short-field, best in this class.
I have to pause here as most won’t realize how insane the above is – in recent years, only short-field assassin Adam Korsak was better.
Open-field (long) punting: The Bears punt from short-fields at one of the lowest rates in the league, but McNamara provides incredible open-field punting value as well, including an uncanny ability to still pin opponents deep from distance.
47 yard average on open field punts
Put 38% (18 of 48 punts) inside the 20 and an amazing 23% inside the 10, best in this class
Limiting returns: Returns aren’t solely on the punter, but they can do a lot to influence it, especially by forcing fair catches. And McNamara was the best in this class there:
Only 20% of his punts were even attempted to be returned
Forced fair catches on 49% of his punts – only Sterling Hofricther, Ben Griffiths, and Tommy Townsend have higher rates since 2020
Allowed 88 total return yards this season, an 8.0 YPR average
Punting from your own end zone is never easy and averages are always down there, but watch McNamara send this ball to a different time zone.
R6-194: Cincinnati Bengals– Ryan Rehkow, BYU
The Saints pass on a punter at 190 and the Bengals use their first pick in the 6th to right last year’s miss. And they get the biggest leg in this class. Here’s why:
Big leg: The 6’4″ 235 pound Rehkow is big with a big leg. Nobody has more long punts than he does this year, with half of his open-field punts (31 of 62) going over 50 yards and 9 over 60.
Pinning deep: Rehkow’s big leg puts him behind only McNamara in this class with 40% of punts inside the 20 yardline and 18% inside the 10.
Hangtime: Rehkow, like McNamara, has a pro-ready hangtime, averaging 4.15 seconds. He’s been at least 4.12 seconds all four years of his college career, spanning 176 career punts.
Two concerns for me though that keep him from being drafted first:
Elevation: Kicking for BYU at 4,649 feet of elevation helps as balls travel further. He had almost exactly the same number of punts at elevation (33) vs. not (35) and his splits show he benefited. At elevation he averaged 3.6 yards further (7% better) and 0.17 added seconds of hangtime (4% better) on open field punts. Ryan Stonehouse also kicked at elevation in college and overcame it, but it is something to note.
Returns: Rehkow had some bad luck and bad coverage that may artificially push his return numbers up – his 12.7 yards per return is worst in this class and he had four punts returned over 20 yards including 33, 74, and 88 yards. But he has allowed 40% of his punts to be returned and only forced a fair catch on 25%, both worst in this class. It’s an area to get better at.
UDFA: Kansas City Chiefs – Tory Taylor, Iowa
The Chiefs just signed Matt Araiza but they aren’t going to just hand over punting duties to a guy that hasn’t kicked in a few years. And they don’t look far, snatching up Iowa punter Tory Taylor from just five hours up the highway.
You ask “How do you have Ray Guy Award winner Tory Taylor not getting drafted?” Look at the recent Ray Guy winners, the award is more a kiss-of-death than a predictor of NFL success: the last four winners are Adam Korsak, Araiza, Pressley Harvin, and Max Duffy – three never punted in the league and the other just lost his starting job. You have to go back to 2018 when Eagle Braden Mann won it to find any pro success.
Here’s why Taylor could surprisingly fall:
Age: Taylor turns 27 years old in July. Since 2000, 49 punters have been drafted and just one was over 24 years old – 27-year old Mitch Wishnowsky in 2020. Punter is a position teams hope to get longevity out of and drafting a 27-year old shortens their careers quite a bit.
Hangtime: And while he is so good, one issue is he doesn’t have a great hangtime, averaging just 4.0 seconds. The top pros over the past 5 drafts have averaged a 4.27 second hangtime to go with a 46 yard average. Only Matt Araiza, Pressley Harvin, and Bryce Baringer have been drafted with a 4.0 second or lower average hangtime.
But there’s still a lot to like with Taylor and it’s an upside signing for the Chiefs:
Short-field punting: Nobody has better directional placement than Taylor. 43% of his short-field punts were pinned inside the 20 and 13% inside the 10, include a class-best 6 punts inside the 5 yardline.
If you want to learn more about punting, do me a favor and check out my friend Isaac Parks’ channel who I’ve learned a ton about punting from. Here’s his video on the complexities of Tory Taylor which is an amazing video on the art of punting:
I chart every punt of the top guys but when you watch Isaac’s breakdown of Taylor, it makes me feel like he’s painting the Sistine Chapel ceiling and I’m eating crayons in the corner. This is 23 minutes worth of punting analysis, techniques, placement, his methodology, and the complexity and variability of Tory Taylor.
UDFA: Washington Commanders – Jack Browning, San Diego State
The Commanders most likely stick with Tress Way, but I will have them bringing in competition because they really should. SDSU’s Browning took over for Matt Araiza and made a name for himself:
Hangtime: There are only 3 punters with NFL-ready hangtimes in this class and with McNamara and Rehkow, Browning is the third with a 4.12 average.
Limiting Returns: Browning has given up little, averaging 4.4 yards per return with only 57 total return yards allowed, best in this class. Only 24% of his punts attempted returns, second behind only McNamara.
Kicking: Browning is the one guy in this class that also kicks, with 99 career kickoffs and 53 field goal attempts. He has one of the better average starting field positions on kick offs at the 24.6 yardline, which would have been 5th best in the NFL. His field goal accuracy is a question from distance, only at 58% from 40 or more.
And that’s it. Two drafted punters and another couple signed in the UDFA period.
If you want to see more on these guys and a couple of others, Isaac has his great video on draftable punters here. We differ on the top guy which may be foolishness on my part, but I’m sticking with McNamara.
An Eagles Positional Value Mock Draft: Who Would You Take at 53?
This is the fourth post, and final pick, in what is really my view on positional value, free agency, and the draft with an Eagles 2024 mock draft mixed in. So far, I’ve taken the two most difficult positions to get outside of the draft with my high picks. Then, I turned to a non-premium position that ended up being the best value when it dropped:
The pick at 53 is interesting. I wrote previously on how draft hit rates drop quicker than most realize – at 53, just over halfway into the 2nd round, expected player value is below the 50th percentile and the chance of a miss (39%) is the same as drafting an above average player (40%).
After getting our future CB1, a dangerous offensive weapon, and a coverage-heavy linebacker, I’ll give a few options that make sense from a value perspective and let you decide.
TE Ben Sinnott: Drafting an underrated TE ahead of a need
So far, only Brock Bowers is projected to have been taken and most will have Ja’Tavion Sanders as TE2, but I’m going rogue and taking Sinnott.
Most people push TEs down in the draft because they are notoriously tough to draft and historically slow to develop. And it’s true, there’s a ton of variability – since 2015, when teams are picking TE2 or TE3, they miss over half the time, worst of any position. And in this mid-2nd round range, TE has the lowest expected draft value of any position.
But when I watch Sinnott’s film and look at everything that points to a good pro, he stands out.
His athleticism is rarely seen and shared by the top TEs in the league
No testing is a guarantee, but the most important tests for TEs have been shown to be the vertical, 3-cone, 10-yard split. TE draft hits are almost always very strong here and misses are the ones that fail to clear the athletic profile needed.
And Sinnott shines athletically, better than every top TE in the vertical and better than all but George Kittle in the 3-cone.
Top NFL TEs Avg
Ben Sinnott
3-cone
7.06
6.82
10-yard
1.59
1.59
Vertical
34.3
40.0
And he does it all:
His 29% missed tackle rate is one of the best over the past 5 drafts and is in really good company – Brock Bowers, Sam LaPorta, Jaheim Bell, and Isaiah Likely are the only guys ahead of him.
He clears the important 2.0 yard per route run metric – only Brock and Cade Stover are also above it in this class.
He’s the top graded blocking TE in this class.
He’s the top graded deep receiving TE in this class.
Versatility, lining up in the backfield, slot, and inline, he led Kansas St in receiving yards in 2023.
I honestly don’t see how Ben Sinnott isn’t the TE2 in this class.
OT Kiran Amegadjie: Restocking the OL with a lab-built but raw tackle
I’ve written why I think using a 1st round pick on Lane’s replacement isn’t a good use of draft capital, and it’s the most push back I’ve ever gotten on a take. But here in round 2, it’s a different story. Here’s why I like Kiran Amegadjie and why it now makes sense:
The Eagles need to replenish the offensive line, especially somebody that can serve as a swing tackle after Jack Driscoll’s departure.
Tackle has one of the top hit rates in the middle of the 2nd round, 3rd best of all positions with an expected 58th percentile player value.
Kiran could have been built in a lab at 6’5″ and 326 pounds with 36 inch arms and his basketball background shows with his footwork.
The reasons for him to drop are explainable – lower competition at Yale but he dominated there, he had an injury that cut short his senior season, and his issues are more rawness and technique than ability.
Another bonus is the Cowboys have been linked to Kiran. Picking just a few spots after the Eagles pick, it could be extra sweet sniping one of their guys.
EDGE Jonah Elliss: A young defender with NFL bloodlines
If I told you I was drafting a defender with NFL bloodlines and an Eagles connection, you’d guess Jeremiah Trotter Jr. But no, I’m looking to Utah’s Jonah Elliss, son of Pro Bowler Luther Elliss and brother to both the Falcons Kaden Elliss and ex-Eagle Christian Elliss.
Through the whole draft cycle, I’ve thought pass rusher was their most likely first pick, but between signing Bryce Huff and having Verse, Turner, and Latu all gone by their first pick, I haven’t taken one yet. But it’s still a need and Elliss could be interesting, especially given his upside:
One of the only younger EDGE prospects, he won’t turn 21 until next week.
Doesn’t have elite pressure rates at 12%, but showed great growth in 2023 and has continued upside with pass rush development and his age.
Finishes well with 13 sacks (3.9% sack rate) and double-digit sacks in 6 games.
Pass rusher is really top heavy this year and it’s historically not a great position to take here, with the second worst hit rate here in the 2nd round, ahead of only TE. Looking back, there are some great finds like small school Alex Highsmith or Anfernee Jennings who suffered a terrible knee injury pre-draft.
And maybe Jonah, coming from Utah and who has no pre-draft workouts due to a shoulder injury, can do the same.
SAF Javon Bullard: Adding another versatile piece to the secondary
We signed CJGJ but is Reed Blankenship enough where we can’t still improve the position? With Javon Bullard, you are getting another highly flexible guy that can play deep safety and slot.
His 17% PBU rate is 2nd in this class behind only ball-hawking freak Tyler Nubin.
Highest graded slot defender in this class, allowing a 24.5 passer rating with 7 receptions on 18 targets for only 57 total yards.
Comps have been made to CJGJ with his versatility, attitude, and ball skills.
Ability to mirror routes with very good anticipation.
Who’s your pick at 53…?
We’ve hopefully already taken our future CB1, another weapon at receiver, and solidified linebacker… and now, should we:
Take our future TE and a guy that may be an asset under the league’s new kickoff structure?
Try to grab Lane’s future replacement and a guy that can fill in at swing tackle and guard in the interim?
Continue to invest in pass rush, knowing that both Reddick and Sweat’s time is limited?
Or add another versatile piece to secondary?
My choice? I’m going with Ben Sinnott for two reasons. Just like taking LB with the last pick, TE is lightly drafted and I think Sinnott is the best player of my choices here. And second, I think it’s a smart, long-term pick for the Eagles as Goedert could be gone as soon as 2025, always misses 3-4 games, and the Eagles offense doesn’t have a good alternative.
And if you don’t like any of these options, let me know in the comments.
Thanks for reading.
An Eagles Positional Value Mock Draft: Why a Non-Premium Position is the Best Value
This is the third post in what is really my view on positional value, free agency, and the draft with an Eagles 2024 mock draft mixed in. So far, I’ve taken the two most difficult positions to get outside of the draft:
You’d think a positional value mock draft would stick to the premium positions, but no, I’m going with LB here.
It’s a popular pick in Philly, but I’m not pandering here. I’m taking LB because if they drop in this draft, it’s likely a more valuable position to take than the premium positions. Here’s why:
The Eagles should have made a bigger move in free agency
Unlike the last two positions I wrote on (CB and WR), LB is the best position to get in free agency.
LBs hit free agency more than any other position, with 10 of the leagues top 15 LBs have been obtained via free agency
At an average of $7.1M AAV in free agency, LB is the second cheapest position to get in free agency, behind only RB and right ahead of IOL and SAF as the cheapest positions.
I wrote previously in “Fixing the Eagles Linebacker Group” that the Eagles should be more aggressive this year, paying up a bit to lock in a multi-year guy like Blake Cashman. Cashman signed a 3-year deal with the Vikings for $7.5M AAV, a worthwhile deal.
The Eagles signed Devin White at $4M, a move I did not love but it’s still probably better than they had last year. The Eagles need a coverage linebacker and that’s what I’m going after here.
But if LBs drop in this draft, it could be a gift to the Eagles
For this mock draft series, I am using a mix of Grinding the Mocks and NFL Mock Draft Database to get consensus player rankings. And at the Eagles pick at 50, here are how many of each position is projected to have been taken so far:
Position
Expected # of Players Taken by Pick 50 (2024)
Average # Players Taken by Pick 50
WR
10
7
OT
9
6
CB
7
8
EDGE
6
8
QB
6
4
DT
5
5
IOL
2
5
SAF
2
3
LB
1
4
TE
1
2
RB
0
3
Only Edgerrin Cooper at pick 45 is projected to have been drafted by the Eagles 2nd rounder, with WR, OT, and CB heavily drafted.
LB is going to be better value than premium positions if it drops
Yes, I know the concept of surplus value well, but after the first 30 or so picks, surplus value differs much less across positions. At some point you ask, “is LB2 a better player than CB8 or WR11?”
And the answer is almost always yes.
Below shows the expected player value when you are taking the first player at that position (the total height of the bar, with higher being more valuable). Unsurprisingly, the premium positions lead here. But the blue bar shows the historical expected value based on how many of each position has been drafted so far (picking WR11, OT10, CB8, etc.):
The non-premium positions now have higher expected value because they have been so lightly drafted compared to WR, CB, EDGE, and OT. Obviously, the pick has to be for the right player, but the point is you are increasing your chances of success.
The 2021 draft is a great example
The 2021 draft started typical, with LBs off the board in the middle of the 1st when Jamin Davis and Zaven Collins taken. But then LBs sat, with 32 picks being made with no LBs going. By pick 52, there were 8 EDGEs, 8 CBs, 7 WRs, and 5 OTs taken.
With the Browns on the clock and needs at pass rusher and receiver, they instead took LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah at R2-52, a great athlete who had fallen due to “tweener” concerns.
And right after that, the Chiefs who also had bigger needs at pass rusher and cornerback and did not have a 1st round pick that year, took LB Nick Bolton at R2-58. And the run continued with the Saints taking Pete Werner at R2-60.
Both the Browns and Chiefs gained tremendous value in the draft with these picks, wisely passing over the best available players at their premium positions of need. Here are the value percentiles for their picks vs. the top available “premium” players:
In fact, over the next 20 picks after JOK was taken, the majority of the picks were bad picks with the LBs being some of the better value players taken – only TE Pat Freiermuth, IOL Creed Humphrey and Josh Myers, and SAF Andre Cisco were other picks of value. Notice they are all “non-premium” positions.
“But it’s a bad LB class…”
Maybe. But pre-draft forecasts are often wrong, with “strong” classes often disappointing a bit and “weak” classes ending up better than was expected. Drafts average 5 above average linebackers.
Below shows pre-draft LB expectations vs. actuals since 2016. The orange line shows the expected quality of a LB class using the number of LBs in the pre-draft top-50. The blue bars show the actual number of elite and above average LBs by player value.
Looking back, the 2017, 2019, and 2023 were draft classes where LB was widely projected to be weak position groups. 2017 ended up being a weak class, but 2019 surprised as one of the stronger classes with Devin White, Quincy Williams, and 6 other above average LBs. Time will tell on the 2023 class but UDFA Ivan Pace Jr. looks to be good and Jack Campbell shows upside.
Why Junior Colson: A special player and fit to the Eagles
I know it takes little convincing Philly fans to draft a LB, but hopefully this positional draft series gives you more reasoning on why it’s the likely the most valuable pick here. And from the prior two picks where I took CB and WR, why LB is not the value in the 1st round.
Edgerrin Cooper would have required the Eagles higher pick which just isn’t the right use of higher picks. You may want Payton Wilson or Cedric Gray or Trotter, and if you have one of the them graded higher, that is fine. I’m choosing Junior Colson and here’s why.
A bigger LB with the most coverage experience
The league is moving to smaller LBs so they can cover, and Colson is a rarity at 6’2″ and 238 lbs. Being 5-7 pounds heavier than the others in this class and 10 pounds more than Nakobe, he brings stopping power. His 17 career missed tackles and 4.2% missed tackle rate is crazy low – most others have as many missed tackles in just this past season.
But he is one of the better, and most experienced, coverage LBs in this class. Over 3 years, he has been in coverage for 1,006 snaps, over half his playing time, and has 98 career targets. With a 2023 83.4 coverage grade, he’s right up there at the top of this class and past top LB propsects.
For comparison, Edgerrin over four years has 728 coverage snaps, Trotter 676, and Payton 1,070 but over five seasons. Colson has been in coverage a ton, which is what the Eagles need.
An incredible story and a guy you are getting a ton of intangibles with
If you don’t know Colson’s story, it’s a great story. Growing up in Haiti, his father died and his will stipulated that Junior was to go into an orphanage where he stayed for two years. After the 2010 Haitian earthquake, an American, Melanie Colson, traveled to Haiti to assist. One stop was at Junior’s orphanage where they connected and she decided to adopt him, returning him to Tennessee to live where he picked up football and shined.
And he’s the type of player Philly – and any team – will love. Known for his work ethic, he was named Michigan’s “Toughest Player” this season. He broke his hand during a drive and stayed in, telling Mike Barrett he wasn’t coming out. At the end of the season, he was playing with a cast and shoulder wrap.
Thoughts on other options
Purely from a positional and surplus value perspective, you can take almost any position here. But here are my other options, in priority order:
Offensive line – This is sweet spot for IOL in the draft and guys like Cooper Beebe and Christian Haynes would be great picks, as well as OT Kiran Amegadjie
Safety – Another position of relative value, Javon Bullard could be interesting here
Defensive line – It’s probably a top heavy pass rusher class, Marshawn Kneeland, Adisa Isaac, and Jonah Elliss are available
Running Back – If we didn’t sign Saquon, I’d seriously be looking at Trey Benson or Jaylen Wright here
Cornerback – Already taken a guy high, it’s a deep class this year, but it’s more slot CBs than outside guys now in the 2nd
Tight End – A position I’d love to take as I think a post-Goedert era needs to be planned for, but I just don’t love this class and it’s historically been a low-value position to draft high
Wide receiver – Took a WR with the last pick but this would be a great option given this class with Ricky Pearsall, Malachi Corley, Ja’Lynn Polk, and others
Trading out of the 3rd Round for Kenny Pickett Isn’t as Valuable as You May Think
There’s been a lot of questioning of the Kenny Pickett trade on two fronts: first, the Justin Fields trade quickly followed at what many saw was a lower price (it wasn’t) and, second, the Eagles trading out of the 3rd round in their pick swap for Pickett.
I’m not here to debate Pickett vs. Fields, but wanted to dive into what exactly the Eagles gave up when they sent their 3rd rounder at pick 98 to the Steelers in return for pick 120 in the 4th.
What are the Eagles losing moving down 22 spots in the draft? Not as much as you may think.
We overvalue picks: A look at expected draft values
We all love our mocks, myself included, picking our favorite guys through all seven rounds. And now, everybody is worrying that Jeremiah Trotter Jr is now going to be gone, turning into Cedric Gray. Or instead of our future nickel Kris Abrams-Draine, we will be looking at Cam Hart.
But when you look at the history of players taken by pick location, we are overvaluing these picks.
Expected player value degrades much quicker than you may think
Of course, picking high in the draft is expected to get you a very good player. But what most don’t realize is how quickly expected value in the draft falls.
Below shows the median player value taken by pick location (orange line). Look at how quickly it drops.
By pick 46, the median value of a player drops below the 50th percentile, meaning by the middle of the 2nd round, teams are expected to get a below-average player.
Let me put player percentiles and values into context with some example Eagles players:
Elite and very good – franchise and guys impactful on the field:
When we all argue online about why certain positions should be taken early, remember the above – teams have 1-2 picks a year that have good expected values. On top of the financial replacement value, this is why it is so important to prioritize premium positions early in the draft.
What’s the “average” player expected at picks 98 and 120?
Looking at the drafts since 2000, here are average player values drafted at both picks 98 and 120:
Averages
Pick 98
Pick 120
Percentile value
27th
20th
Games played
63.1
65.8
Years started
2.5
1.7
Again, to put these value percentiles into context, 27th percentile players for the Eagles have been Brandon Boykin (played 4 seasons, starting 9 games) and LB Andy Studebaker (released by the Eagles in rookie camp, went on to be a backup starting 9 games over 8 seasons). These are the “average” expected players taken at pick 98.
At pick 120, the average player matches Wendell Smallwood (played 6 seasons, 3 in Philly, with 968 career rushing yards) and Clay Harbor (7 seasons, starting 38 games and totaling 1,170 career receiving yards).
Not a big difference in player value. And not exactly game-changing players.
History of Eagles draft picks at these locations
If you look at the Eagles selections close to picks 98 and 120, you see that impact pros have been very rare. And if anything, they have done as well or better around 120.
Eagles selections between 90-105:
Out of 7 picks since 2010, only Rasul Douglas has been a good pro, and most of his success was after leaving Philly. Kelee Ringo is in here and way too early to tell, hopefully he pops as well.
The Eagles have taken more players around pick 120, but again, impact players are rare. Avonte Maddox is the only good player here (if you question is low value percentile, it’s because he’s missed 35% of his pro playing time with injuries). K’Von, like Rasul above, may be having a better career after leaving Philly and Mack Hollins had one good year in Las Vegas.
The Eagles get a backup QB, which they needed, for $4.6M over the next two seasons and only gave up the potential value difference between these picks.
I wasn’t very high on Kenny coming out and thought the Steelers way over-drafted him when they needed OL like they needed air, with Tyler Linderbaum screaming to be picked. But if Kenny has to come in, he’s going to go from the 2nd worst OL in the league to one of the best and from one receiving weapon to three (and hopefully a fourth if the Eagles do what I want and draft another receiver…)
At $2.3M per year, Kenny is a much better use of cap space than paying Marcus Mariota $5M last year.
An Eagles Positional Value Mock Draft: A Trade and Locking in #SuperOffense
This is the second post in what is really my view on positional value, free agency, and the draft with an Eagles 2024 mock draft mixed in.
Prior picks: R1-18: CB Nate Wiggins
In the first post, I made the case on why you must look to the draft for a CB. Few good CB options ever hit the open market and when they do, they are expensive and usually older guys at risk of decline. If you missed it, go check it out here:
And now in the 2nd round, I’m using a pick returned from trading Josh Sweat to realize what we (half-jokingly) refer to online as #superoffense.
Round 2, Pick 35: WR Xavier Worthy
Trade: Josh Sweat to the Cardinals for their 2024 R2-35 pick (forecasting trades is nearly impossible, maybe Josh doesn’t return this much, if not trade up with a later or future pick to make this work)
After taking one of the hardest positions to get outside of the draft in round 1, I’m going to take the actual hardest position to get (affordably) outside of the draft.
Wide receiver.
This offense would be deadly with speed like Xavier Worthy’s
The Eagles offense is very good but two things:
It’s missing top-end speed
It isn’t resilient to an injury to Goedert or DeVonta or AJ
Can you imagine this offense with Saquon, DeVonta, AJ, Goedert, and now somebody that forces the defense to keep safety help deep, makes it hard for CBs to play press, and if you do play Worthy off, he can do this to you:
The excitement I have for Kellen Moore is that he has shown he will take what the defense gives him way more than the Sirianni offense did.
And just think what adding Saquon and Worthy to this offense makes it – the defense always has a bad choice, they can’t stack the box and cover deep and cover five weapons plus Hurts at the same time.
He models his game after DeSean Jackson
Not saying he will be DeSean but there are similarities. We know Worthy is fast. Here are his testing numbers vs. DeSean – similar except Xavier is faster and a bit more explosive.
And DeSean had some of the best ball tracking in the history of the game and, while it will be hard for somebody to repeat that, Xavier may have the best ball-tracking skills in this class.
And Worthy’s better than his stats say
Worthy dominated as a freshman, which few do, but hasn’t progressed since then.
I had somebody ask me about Xavier’s deep receiving which is a good question – if you look at his stats, they aren’t that great – 6 receptions on 23 targets for 234 yards and a concerning 10.2 Y/RR, last in this class.
But his QB, Quinn Ewers, has a ridiculously bad 36.2% deep passing on-target percentage. To put that in perspective, the average QB for the top 100 WRs in this class had a near-50% on-target percentage. Jayden Daniels is near 70%, JJ McCarthy is 58%, and Bo Nix is 57%. Kyle McCord, Spencer Rattler, Drake Maye, Caleb Williams, and Jalen Milroe are all over 50%. One of the lowest is Micheal Penix Jr and he’s 47%.
The only NFL QB I could find close to this was Sam Howell who had a 39% on target percentage his senior year at UNC (an is continuing how poorly he is with Washington).
Ewers continually either missed Xavier or turned yards of separation into a contested catch as Derrick Bell points out below. That isn’t happening in the NFL.
Why I’m drafting a WR: you can’t afford them outside the draft
Top receivers only come from the draft or trades
For CB, between 25-30% of the league’s top players hit free agency. But for receiver, it’s basically none. Instead, it’s mid-level guys in free agency that get paid like top guys or expensive trades.
Of the top 10 WRs, 7 came from the draft and 3 were from trades (AJ Brown, Tyreek Hill, and Davante Adams) – none of the top 10 WRs were obtained via free agency.
If you expand to the top 25 WRs, only 1 hit free agency (Mike Evans this year), with 18 coming from the draft (counting extensions) and 6 via trades.
And trades for receivers are very expensive
Of the 6 top WRs that were obtained via trade (one, Amari Cooper, was traded twice), every single one cost at least a 1st round pick and most cost a lot more and they all came with a big contract as part of the trade or shortly after.
Year
Top WR
Trade Compensation
2018
Amari Cooper
R1
2020
Stefon Diggs
R1, R5, R6, future R4
2020
Amari Cooper*
R5
2022
AJ Brown
R1, R3
2022
Davante Adams
R1, R2
2022
Tyreek Hill
R1, R2, R4, future R4, future R6
2023
DJ Moore
Part of CAR move-up for Bryce Young, DJ Moore ended up the equivalent value of trading R1-18
* Amari Cooper’s second trade to the Browns is the only exception here because the Cowboys were forced to dump him with everybody knowing he was going to be released.
But it’s easier to draft receivers
No position is easy, I’m not saying anybody can grab a top WR on day two. But unlike CB where the top guys are heavily dominated with early picks, you can get great receivers deeper in the draft.
Half of the top 10 WRs came from outside the 1st round, with 3 on day two and 2 on day three.
It’s even more if you expand to the top 25 WRs with 55% coming from outside the 1st round – 10 came from day two and another 4 from day three
Puka, Tyreek, Stefon Diggs, and Amon-Ra St Brown are the late picks everybody remembers, but more importantly are the day two guys – AJ Brown, Davante Adams, DK Metcalf, Tee Higgins, Chris Godwin, Keenan Allen, Deebo, Michael Pittman, Nico Collins, and last year’s Rashee Rice.
It’s crazy to pass on a receiver with how good this class is
You just can’t pass on a receiver in this class. It’s talented at the top end with three guys – MHJ, Malik Nabers, and Rome Odunze – that are WR1s most other years. But it is also deep.
Since 2000, the most receivers taken in the 1st round is 7 in 2004. Seven other times 6 WRs have been taken, including most recently 2020 and 2022. I’d be shocked if this year doesn’t beat those marks.
Receivers will be drafted heavily, but a lot of teams still need QBs and tackles which are also strong classes this year. And cornerbacks are always drafted heavily no matter the class.
There are going to be really good receivers available later than they normally are just because of how good this class is. For a lot of teams, even if they don’t need a WR, it is likely going to be BPA when they are on the clock.
The Eagles are going to need a WR soon
Many think because we have AJ and DeVonta, receiver isn’t a need. And it isn’t an immediate need. But…
As much as we love AJ Brown, he is only probably here 2 more years due to both age and cost. Look at where contracts are set up with “outs” for an idea of what could happen – AJ’s has an out after the 2024 season where he has a cap savings even with a pre-June 1 trade or release. In 2026, he will be 29 years old with a $41M cap hit in 2026, with $36M of that hit being avoidable cost. $41M in 2026 is never going to happen. Sure, he may be restructured or extended, but again, he will be 27 this summer and 29 at the end of this deal.
During this time, DeVonta is going to get paid. His 5th year option in 2025 will be picked up at around $15M but I don’t see how his extension doesn’t have a $30M AAV when WRs like Calvin Ridley and Michael Pittman are getting $23M a year. Remember, he and his agent are going to be negotiating for what his AAV is going to be from 2026 through 2030, not what it should be in 2024. We already have a $30M WR (Tyreek), a $28M one (Davante Adams), and a $27M one (Cooper Kupp).
Keeping both AJ and DeVonta is likely going to consume $70M of cap on an AAV basis from 2026 on. Yes, the cap will grow but the Eagles are committing 13% of their cap to WRs in 2024. Keeping both would almost double it, going to 23% of the 2026 cap (assuming an 8% annual cap growth). That’s not happening.
The Eagles need to start preparing for a post-AJ world and there’s no guarantee you are just going to hit on a pick when you need to, as we saw with JJAW and Reagor. With this WR class, it makes sense to take a shot now when you may have 1st round talents dropping into the 2nd.
Thoughts on other options
You can make a strong case for a lot of positions here and as the draft goes on, “positional value” becomes less and less important. But I’m not trying to just regurgitate standard “positional value” points.
Positions I’d take here:
Pass rusher or defensive tackle – By far, the positions you would also want to get here. Players like Darius Robinson, Chris Braswell, and Braden Fiske are here and would be great picks.
Offensive line – Tackles like Kingsley Suamataia and Kiran Amegadjie are here.
Safety – Normally probably not a position I’d take here, but if you really thought Tyler Nubin is good enough, he’s an option.
Positions I’m not taking here:
Linebacker – Just not this high as I am not sure there is a LB worthy of a high R2 pick.
Running back – Not with signing Saquon.
An Eagles Positional Value Mock Draft: Starting off With a 1st Round Cornerback
The term “positional value” is thrown around a lot, often abused, and usually smack dab in the middle of online disagreements around linebackers, safeties, and running backs.
This will be a four-part mock draft series, working through the Eagles first four picks. It’s not really meant to be a mock draft, it’s more of a dive into how I am thinking about positions and how I’d use the draft picks. And it won’t be straight chalk of the premium positions you may expect.
I’m using consensus player rankings from Grinding the Mocks and NFL Mock Draft Database, not a simulator. I’ve had Drake Maye, Quinyon Mitchell, and Jared Verse all drop to 22 in sims which just isn’t very likely.
Round 1, Pick 18: CB Nate Wiggins
Trade 1-22, 5-160, and a 2025 R5 for the Bengals 1-18 pick. Terrion Arnold and Quinyon Mitchell are both gone by pick 16 and the Eagles move ahead of the Rams, Steelers, and Dolphins who all could take a CB.
Every year, you always wait for Combine overreactions and Nate Wiggins’ weigh-in caused one of the biggest ones this year.
And, thank you very much, I will gladly take his drop. Here’s why:
Match-ups vs. top college receivers
Prospects can only play who they play so you don’t always get match-ups vs. future pros, but when you do, it’s by far one of the things I value most in watching film. And Wiggins’ film against Keon Coleman, Tez Walker, and Xavier Legette is some of the best.
For those worrying about Wiggins size and play strength, he held big and explosive receivers – Coleman is 6’3″ 213 pounds, Legette is 6’1″ 220 and 4.39 speed, and Tez Walker is 6’1″ 193 with 4.36 speed – to some of their worst collegiate games.
In his 2023 season, he allowed 18 catches on 41 targets for 176 total yards and a draft class best 44 passer rating allowed. And one of the most impressive stats are his longest receptions allowed. He gave up one long 43-yard reception to Tez Walker, but aside from that, his game by game long receptions allowed are 4, 5, 1, 11, 5, 10, and 18. He gave nothing up outside of that one catch.
Physicality, mentality, and upside
I often joke that I want a finger-wagging corner. But it’s not really a joke – corners need to have that mentality. And there probably isn’t a corner in this class that is a bigger trash talker or is consistently in receivers faces than Wiggins.
If you are concerned about his weight, watch his physicality in press coverage. And, at only 20 years old, he’s going to get better and probably fills out some (although he is always going to be lean).
Tackling the “tackling question”…
Since his weigh-in, concerns on his tackling have been all over. Is he Devon Witherspoon? No. But the concerns are way overblown.
In coverage, his 38 total YAC and 2.1 YAC per reception is second best since 2020, behind only Trent McDuffie. And his 4.2% missed tackle rate in coverage is near the top of this class, behind only Quinyon and Kamari Lassiter. You don’t put these numbers up being a bad tackler.
As a comparison, in this class Terrion Arnold allowed 6.1 YAC per reception, Rakestraw 5.6, Kool-Aid 4.4, Quinyon 2.5, and Kamari 2.6. Last draft, Devon Witherspoon allowed 3.2 and Joey Porter Jr. 3.4.
The below clip is from @BoltsDraftTalk and shows what you are consistently getting from Wiggins in coverage.
In run support, Wiggins can be better. But across the NFL CBs account for only 11% of tackles in the run game. Yes, you would love a CB to be great in run support, but they are there to take away the offense’s best WR first. Prioritizing a CB that is great in run support over coverage is like taking an EDGE because they can drop into coverage effectively every so often.
For everybody complaining about Nate’s tackling, did you also want Jaylon Johnson in free agency? Jaylon is one of the worst tacklers in the league. Did you like Asante Samuel Jr or Joey Porter Jr? Neither is a good tackler. Slay isn’t great. And maybe the league’s best corner, Sauce, isn’t good. Give me a list of lockdown corners that are great tacklers… it’s not a big list.
Quickness and fluidity
Wiggins is one of the only corners in this class that has fluidity of movement, quickness to close, and top-end speed.
Speed doesn’t guarantee success but it’s also really hard to find a top CB in the league without it. The top 25 CBs average a 4.43 forty time and a 1.55 10-yard split. And it’s incredibly rare for any top CB to have a 4.5 or greater forty or a 1.58 10-yard, which gives me concerns on guys like Ennis Rakestraw (4.54 and 1.59) and Kool-Aid McKinstry (who hasn’t tested but I’m not expecting top numbers).
Wiggins’ 4.29 forty and 1.49 10-yard show up on film and put him well above what defines the NFL’s top corners.
Why I’m drafting a cornerback: Good luck trying to get one any other way
Top CBs rarely hit free agency and need to be found in the draft
In 2019, 25-year old Jalen Ramsey was traded for three picks including two 1st rounders. Just this week, the jewel of this year’s CB class, 24-year old Jaylon Johnson, was extended by Chicago ahead of free agency.
Outside of QB, cornerback is the hardest position to get on the open market. If you look at the top 10 graded CBs, you see they come from the draft and teams rarely let good CBs go:
7 were obtained in the draft (5 still on their rookie contracts and 2 retained with an extension)
Of the 7 drafted, 6 were taken in the 1st round and 1 in the 2nd round
Only 3 hit free agency (Charvarius Ward, DJ Reed, and Kendall Fuller)
If you expand to the top 25 CBs, the story is largely the same:
18 were via the draft (11 still on rookie deal and 7 retained through an extension) with 9 taken in the 1st round and 3 on day 2
Only 7 were obtained in free agency (the three above plus Mike Hilton, Rasul Douglas, Steven Nelson, and Jonathan Jones)
And when CBs hit free agency, it’s expensive with a ton of risk
CB is ranked 6th in free agency contract costs behind quarterbacks, receivers, pass rushers, and offensive and defensive tackles. But if you adjust for both age and player value, CB is the 2nd most expensive position, behind only EDGE.
Click to see age-adjusted free agent costs
Below shows average costs for free agents that are age 27 or under and a top player (defined as a 7+ AV per year player) – CB is only behind pass rushers:
Position
Free Agent AAV
EDGE
14,453,810
CB
13,500,000
OT
13,154,600
SAF
11,627,500
WR
9,912,501
LB
9,910,714
IOL
9,492,500
DT
9,050,000
RB
6,252,083
And every year, one of the top free agent CBs immediately hits the age cliff. In 2021, Washington signed 28-year old William Jackson to a 3-year $45M deal, only to fall off and get traded away. In 2022, everybody wanted JC Jackson who turned into an $82M free agent catastrophe. And last year, our own James Bradberry.
Just look at the not-good free agency options
Re-signing Bradberry was a mistake and there’s no defending it, but to defend Howie maybe a bit, what better options did the Eagles have? The top free agent CBs everybody wanted last year were the almost-33 year old Patrick Peterson, 28-year old Cam Sutton with a 102 passer rating allowed, and Byron Murphy and his 122 passer rating.
It’s the same story every year.
There are only a four CBs that weren’t 29 or 30 years old that turned out to be good signings: Charvarius Ward and DJ Reed in 2022, Mike Hilton in 2021, and Kendall Fuller in 2020. That’s 4 out of 239 CBs signed in free agency since 2020.
And it’s played out the same this off-season:
Jaylon Johnson never hits the market, extended by Chicago to a 4-year, $76M deal
L’Jarius Sneed is tagged at $19.8M and probably getting traded but at 27 years old, he’s going to want a deal that could become risky on age
And a bunch of older guys either in decline or likely to decline in this next deal – Adore Jackson is 28, Kendall Fuller and Chidobe Awuzie are 29, Kenny Moore II is 30, Stephon Gilmore is 31, and Steven Nelson is 33
Who are the Eagles going to sign? Who is even remotely a multi-year solution?
The Eagles fit and need
Isaiah Rodgers is on a one-year deal and, if he plays well, is going to get expensive. We hope Kelee hits, but it’s dangerous to bet on either Ricks or Jobe – neither has shown the athletic profile to start.
“But is there room for Wiggins to play?” you may ask. First, you can’t have too many corners. And second, what if Wiggins comes in and the Eagles believe they have an immediate starter during camp? It’s not crazy to trade or release Slay which frees up $3M of 2024 cap space.
For a position with such big age risk, you can only get young CBs in the draft or by trading a fortune for a guy like Jalen Ramsey that a team doesn’t want to pay (and even those only come around every so often). And if you are looking to the draft, you better be looking high.
Which is what I am doing. Welcome to Philly Nate Wiggins.
Thoughts on other positions here
Corner is really the right position to take here, but which other positions make sense to me? And which don’t?
Positions I’d take here:
Pass rusher – What I still think is most likely to be the pick, but Turner, Verse, and Latu were all gone (but stay tuned…)
Receiver – Troy Franklin and Ladd McConkey are both available and I’d love either in the 1st
Positions I’m not taking here:
Defensive tackle – Only if the board fell right (or wrong, depending on your perspective). Byron Murphy II is the only DT I’d take here and he is projected pick 16.
Offensive tackle – I’ve written so much on this, it’s a premium position but just no for the Eagles this year. Like Byron Murphy, maybe Fautanu if the board fell a certain way.
Linebacker, safety, and running back – They are all cheap and plentiful in free agency and don’t have R1 guys this year.
Guards / centers – Always a priority for Philly, but they are the second worst position by surplus value as they are typically easy to get and comparatively cheap in free agency. I’m not drafting any of these guys over potentially a top CB.
Coming next, the 2nd round.
What This Year’s Massive Salary Cap Jump Likely Means
If you are interested in the cap, there is no better resource than Jason Fitzgerald at OverTheCap.com. He has a recent podcast here where he talks about the 2024 cap and goes into a lot more detail.
I posted some quick thoughts last week on what a much-higher-than-expected 2024 salary cap probably means but wanted to dive deeper here.
A lot saw it as an opportunity for the Eagles (or any team) to be more aggressive and grab favorite fan targets like Patrick Queen or Brian Burns that may have been out of reach. But will it?
Not quite.
Salary cap history and how teams react to changes
This year’s cap explosion is an anomaly, not a trend
With the cap increasing around 6.5% annually for years, the past 3 years coming out of Covid have been an anomaly, averaging 10.8% increases and this year hitting 13.6%.
But don’t expect these large increases to continue. Some of this is a return to the natural trend after the 2021 Covid season saw an 8% cap drop. If you just modeled a constant 6.5% cap increase since 2016, you would be at $257M in 2024, almost exactly the actual $255.4M cap number that surprised everybody.
Covid distorted the cap because of temporary revenue drops but also because the players and league agreed to defer player benefit costs in 2021. These benefits then needed to be paid back (and subtracted from the cap calculations). With those benefits now fully repaid, there is no extra drag on the 2024 cap, allowing it to bounce.
Some of the new media deals (Amazon, Paramount, and splitting residential and commercial streaming rights) likely push the expected cap run rate up from the recent trend, but expectations are the cap will fall back into a steady 7-8% growth range, not continuing at near 11%.
Why’s this important? Because while the cap ballooned in 2024, teams won’t be expecting this trend to continue which will impact their plans on multi-year deals.
How teams spend when the cap changes
When the cap goes up, all player costs go up as well. The rookie wage scale and franchise tag amounts all move with the cap. And free agent contracts get bid up by teams.
Individual teams approaches to the cap vary, but there are several general takeaways on how the league reacts to changes in the cap.
Free agency contract values largely follow the cap
This is why excitement over this year’s cap increase is overblown – free agent prices are going to go up as well.
Below shows the annual percentage change of the salary cap (blue line) vs. free agency average annual values, or AAV (orange line).
In 2021 when Covid dropped the cap by 8%, the average free agent contract fell 14.9%. And when the cap bounced back 14% in 2022, the average free agent contract exploded up 27%. This put free agent values right back on it’s original trajectory, making up for the 2021 loss.
But increases are greater for QBs, premium positions, and tier 2 free agents
All free agents don’t go up equally – if you look back at the past decade you see:
Overall, free agent prices go up along with the overall cap
The top end of the free agent is skewed by recent QB signings and in particular, only two (Jimmy Garopollo and Derek Carr) but generally is slightly below the cap growth rate
Premium positions and the 2nd tier of free agency is where teams aggressively spend extra cap money – this is the one segment where increases are higher than the overall cap rate
Below shows how free agent prices by tier have grown vs. the cap over the past decade.
Annual % Change (all FAs)
Annual % Change (ex QBs)
Annual % Change (premium positions only)
Salary Cap
5.4%
5.4%
5.4%
Tier 1 Free Agents AAV (> 5% of cap)
5.5%
4.7%
5.1%
Tier 2 Free Agents AAV (2.5%-5.0% of cap)
4.7%
5.0%
6.2%
Tier 3 Free Agents AAV (< 2.5% of cap)
4.6%
4.4%
4.4%
Click for more detail on the above free agent tiers
The tiers of free agents are defined based on the percent of cap they are signed for on an annual average basis. I’m using a percent of cap instead of straight dollar amount to account for the growth of free agent prices
Tier 1: Greater than 5% of the cap Every year, there are between 20-25 free agents signed in this top tier and this tier is dominated by premium positions, making up 75% of signings at the top end. For context, in 2023 these Tier 1 free agents would have been $11M+ AAV contracts and included Derek Carr, Jimmy Garopolo, and Javon Hargave at the top and ending with James Bradberry, David Onyemata, and Kaleb McGary.
Tier 2: Between 2.5% and 5.0% of the cap The second tier typically numbers around 50 free agents each year. In 2023 this tier signed for between $5.5-$11.0M AAV and included players like Cameron Sutton and Allen Lazard at the top of tier 2 all the way to David Montgomery and Julian Love at the bottom. Several notable Eagles were in this tier including Fletcher Cox, Marcus Epps, CJGJ, and Andre Dillard.
Tier 3: Less than 2.5% of the cap The bulk of free agency, usually numbering 350-500 signings a year and primarily 1-year deals (84% of signings) that are low-cost, roster-filling moves. As a comparison, tier 1 averages 3.4 year contracts and and tier 2 averages 2.5 year contracts.
Below are the free agent tiers over time which better shows the above trends. Each free agent tier is indexed to the same starting point in 2016 so you can see their relative growth vs. the salary cap. First, you see how free agent prices follow the cap and second, you can see where tier 2 has consistently grown fastest, only passed in 2023 by the top-end which was driven by the QBs.
Teams have been spending extra cap space on extensions, not franchise tags
I’ve seen several say they expect the use of franchise tags to increase because of the extra 2024 cap space but we’ve seen the exact opposite – with the post-Covid cap boom, the use of franchise tags has shrunk, dropping 28% in 2022 and another 19% in 2023.
And this makes sense – remember that franchise tag values are an average of the top five players at a position but are adjusted as a percentage of this year’s cap. CB tags in 2024 are up 9%, WRs are up 10.5%, and pass rushers are up 14.7%… these tag values are likely going up more than open market free agent contracts so teams need to have a good reason to tag a player.
While not using tags, teams have used extra cap aggressively on extending their own players. After averaging just under $27M of extensions annually prior to Covid with annual growth of less then 5%, the cap growth drove extensions dramatically higher as teams prioritized keeping their own guys.
In 2022, extensions averaged $47M per team, up 73% from 2021, and while they shrunk a bit in 2022, extensions averaged over $41M per team, still 50% higher than pre-Covid extension amounts.
And player releases drop when the cap increases
The final thing teams can do is release players. And not surprisingly, player releases generally drop when the cap increases.
As the cap shrank in 2021, teams were forced to release more players as they tried to get under the cap. And as the cap has grown post-Covid, teams have felt less pressure to release players, hitting their lowest levels in the past decade.
What to expect in 2024
Teams are figuring out what the extra cap means and how they plan to use it. Howie Roseman unsurprisingly doesn’t view it as a windfall:
It’s like if you win $5, it’s still your $5, you don’t want to just throw that $5 out and pretend like it’s not yours… We’ve got to make sure we’re still making good decisions with it because, at the end of the day, as we go forward, we do have a lot of guys making a lot of money.”
Bills GM Brandon Beane said he was bracing for a lower cap but sees it giving some breathing room: “Maybe it’s one less guy you’ve got to release or restructure… [but] You don’t want to just credit card everyone and just pile it up.”
Here’s what I think we should expect:
Fewer cap casualties as the teams in cap hell get some relief
The teams in the worst cap situation entering 2024 – the Bills, Saints, Dolphins, Chargers, and even the Cowboys – get immediate relief and you can expect fewer cap casualties or restructures that teams would rather not do (which is where the Saints have been living).
For the Eagles, I think the opposite is true here though – I think it is more likely that James Bradberry is traded or released due to the cap space. I’ve written a lot on this, but two things: First, he is unlikely to be one of the top 6 or 7 CBs on the depth chart and second, the Eagles are in much worse cap shape for 2025 and 2026 than they are for 2024 – JBJ gives them a chance to clean up 2025 which they will need.
Another year of record extensions and teams trying to get ahead of each other, especially at receiver
We’ve seen teams have used extra cap space aggressively for extensions. This will continue not only because of the cap increase, but because there are a lot of elite players entering extension territory and teams are going to want to get out of ahead of other teams pushing these numbers up. Just look at this list, especially at receiver:
Teams should absolutely get ahead of others setting the market at receiver. And this is why I think the Eagles should prioritize a DeVonta extension above anything else this off-season.
Wide receivers, defensive tackles, and pass rushers are going to get bid up
The premium positions always get paid, but these three positions stand out this year, but for different reasons:
Pass rushers: The top end of Josh Allen and Brian Burns likely get tagged and with extra cap space, their teams probably push harder to sign guys like Danielle Hunter and Jonathan Greenard. Which leaves a lot of tier 2 free agents in a league where almost every team needs pass rushers.
Bryce Huff could end up the top end and his expected $16M AAV will go up… Eagles favorite Andrew Van Ginkel, a great tier 2 option, will likely be well above his projected $6.5M AAV… and even expected 1-year guys like Za’Darius Smith are likely going to bid up as competing teams seem them as worthwhile uses of the extra space.
Wide receivers: Unlike pass rusher, it’s really not a good receiver class but that never stops the NFL. Remember 2022 when the cap first ballooned and the Jaguars were intent on getting Trevor some weapons? They broke the receiver market giving Christian Kirk and Zay Jones a combined $97M in free agency.
Don’t expect the gaudy top-end deals because the top free agents are likely going to get tagged or signed. And this receiver draft class is going to direct a lot of teams there instead of free agency. But the next tier of guys like Calvin Ridley, Marquise Brown, Gabe Davis, and Darnell Mooney are still going to get paid more than they warrant, especially as extensions start re-setting the market.
Defensive tackles: Long considered not a premium position, it really is now. No other position’s free agency costs have increased more over the past decade and at the top end, it is behind only QB, OT, and WR over the past two years. And this free agent class has some talent – Chris Jones, Justin Madubuike, Christian Wilkins, Leonard Williams, and DJ Reader. Philly fans have complained when Fletch was given $10M deals the past couple of years – watch what $10M gets you in the DT market this year.
And lastly, don’t expect the Eagles to make a splash in the top end
Hopefully the above shows you there isn’t going to be a windfall for the Eagles this year with “extra money to spend”. They are surely going to extend DeVonta and probably Landon.
I’ll dive into this more later, but the couple of things to remember about Howie are:
He has never played at the top end of free agency and rightly sees the value in the mid-tier of free agency.
When he has given out bigger contracts, it has always been at premium positions – if anything happens, expect it to be on the defensive line this year which is where need matches his preference.
He will not force a draft pick to address a need – for everybody thinking we “must” draft a LB or SAF, he is going to have solutions, and likely mid-tier options, at those positions.
With Fangio coming in, I do think Howie likely bends his historical frugality, likely at safety where a guy like Xavier McKinney could make sense – he’s versatile and can move into the slot and man coverage. Safety is one position where the free agent market has continued to be weak and while McKinney isn’t going to be a “deal”, he would be the one mid-tier deal that could interest Philly.
QB Caleb Williams
QB Jayden Daniels
(trade NE) QB JJ McCarthy
QB Jayden Daniels
WR Marvin Harrison Jr
OT JC Latham
WR Malik Nabers
OT Joe Alt
ED Dallas Turner
TE Brock Bowers
(trade PHL) CB Terrion Arnold
DT Byron Murphy II
QB Michael Penix Jr
OL Olu Fashanu
WR Rome Odunze
EDGE Laiatu Latu
CB Quinyon Mitchell
OT Taliese Fuaga
OT Tyler Guyton
OL Graham Barton
OL Amarius Mims
(trade MIA) CB Kool-Aid McKinstry
C Jackson Powers-Johnson (sad emoji)
(trade DAL) WR Adonai Mitchell
ED Chop Robinson
CB Kool-Aid McKinstry
OT Kingsley Suamataia
WR Nate Wiggins
WR Ladd McConkey
