A look at historical draft stats for EDGEs, how many are taken, hit rates, and what drives success. And who I like, who I would target for the Eagles, and who aren't fits. Read more
The cap's going up again, but it won't allow the spending spree in free agency many think - here's what to expect on free agent prices, who gets paid, and some new trends in the NFL. Read more
A look at age trends in the NFL draft, how older prospects have performed in the league, and some of the notable 23-24 year old prospects in the 2025 draft. Read more
Micah Parsons loses his mind every year as the league allows an unexpected value to fall in the draft to Howie Roseman and the Eagles. Who could fall and be this year's Eagles picks to send Micah sideways? Read more
A look at the 2025 defensive tackle class, who projects well to the NFL, potential values in the draft, and guys Eagles fans should be interested in. Read more
What if you could be GM for each NFC East team? Where are their strengths and issues, what do they need to accept as reality, and what moves to make? Read more
The Eagles have a young, good core but there will be holes to fill in free agency. I add a pass rusher, OL and secondary depth, and a new RB2. Read more
While we look at likely Eagles needs, the strength (and weakness) of positions has big implications on the Eagles draft. Here are my thoughts on five positions in the 2025 draft. Read more
The Steelers are the anti-Eagles in terms of roster building and are in need of a serious re-build after being in football purgatory for the last 5 years. What if Howie Roseman ran their re-build? Read more
A look back through Eagles drafts since 2017 on who Howie was losing and how that affected the draft - and, how projected departures define 2025 draft needs. Read more
The Eagles have some tough decisions this offseason and won't be able to re-sign everybody. Who they should re-sign, what contracts could look like, and the cap outlook. Read more
A look at this EDGE draft class: Who I like and why the Eagles shouldn’t force a pick
It’s a bit rare to have such consensus on the Eagles top pick, but EDGE has remained the wire-to-wire leader this year so far. The guys have shifted as the big boards moves, but it’s been an EDGE in R1 the entire year.
Mock draft aggregator NFLMockDraftDatabase currently has the Eagles taking BC EDGE Donovan Ezeiruaku
Tankathon has them taking Ohio State’s Jack Sawyer
PFF has Ezeiruaku and Nic Scourton as the top two most frequently made picks
And it makes sense. Howie invests on the lines, the Eagles are likely losing two EDGEs, and the depth chart is Nolan Smith, Jalyx Hunt, and a disappointing Bryce Huff. That’s it.
They are most definitely drafting an EDGE. But where?
This is going to be a very unpopular view in Philly, but the more and more I look at this class, the more I think we need to pump the breaks on an EDGE being taken high. Here’s why.
First, some stats on drafting pass rushers
EDGEs are heavily drafted…
Over the past 10 years:
On average, pretty consistently right around 5 EDGEs are taken in R1 (2021 had 8, 2018 and 2020 had 2, but most years are between 4-6)
Another 4 are taken in R2 and, again, this has been pretty consistent
And another 5 EDGEs typically go in R3
On day 3 the draft averages 3-4 each round, totaling somewhere around 14-15 EDGEs on day 3
…but they have one of the lowest hit rates
Over the 2014-2023 period (I’m excluding the 2024 draft because player value data isn’t fair or reliable after only a rookie season):
EDGE has the 4th worst hit rate in R1 at 55%, behind CB, SAF, and TE
2 league average or worse EDGEs are taken in R1, with at least 1 total draft miss almost every year
On day 2 of the draft the hit rate is 16%, second worst ahead of only TE with its 10% hit rate
Bust rates are high on day 2, averaging 6 misses per draft
To put these numbers in context, of the nearly 5 EDGEs drafted every year in R1, only 1.7 of them are above average pros. On day 2, the draft averages only 1.5 above average pros out of the almost 10 taken and 6 EDGEs would be considered total misses.
When you look at the 14-15 EDGEs that get drafted in the first three rounds, just think that history tells us most likely only 4 of them will be above average pros.
This year again right around 16-17 EDGEs are projected in the top 3 rounds. Who are the likely 4 above average pros… and who are the guys everybody loves that will be this year’s misses?
College production doesn’t guarantee, but is predictive, of NFL success
I wrote on projecting EDGEs to the pros here and always have to caveat this – you cannot, and I do not, look solely at stats to scout guys. However, college production does have a strong correlation to pro success:
Top college producers (pressure rates above 17%) have twice the hit rates as guys below that mark. And poor college producers (below 14% pressure rates) almost never hit, with only 1 in 8 being good pros. The problem is there just aren’t many of these top production guys, typically only 3-6 of them in any year.
This year is on the lighter side with only 4 guys projected in the top 100 that have an above 17% pressure rate. And there are 9 guys that should be viewed with a ton of risk with below 14% college pressure rates.
Does low college production mean guys will be misses? No. Does it mean there’s risk with the pick? Absolutely.
A look at the 2025 EDGE draft class
I’ve watched more EDGE film than almost any other position because it is such a likely pick for the Eagles, including re-watching a bunch of guys again over the past week.
I continue to think that this EDGE class is going to be an average EDGE class, with a couple of really good prospects at the top and more risk than many are giving it lower.
And the Eagles forcing an EDGE pick, especially at the end of the 1st round, is most likely NOT going to be where the value is in the draft.
Remember, when you look at these classes, think “there are likely only 4-5 above average pros… who are they?”
The “sure things”…
Nobody is a sure thing, but to me there are two clear guys you take high and feel great about. Both are only 21 years old, both are explosive, and both have film against really good competition which matters a ton to me.
Abdul Carter
EDP: 2 + production + athleticism + versatility
His 35% pass rush win rate is up there with the best EDGEs in recent years. He’s got versatility few in this class do, playing quite a bit of LB, dropping into coverage, and add in his 15% run stop rate and he’s one of the few guys good against both the pass and run. He’ll be long-gone by the Eagles pick.
James Pearce
EDP: 15 + production + athleticism – size
He’s a bit all over with some dropping him lower which I don’t get or agree with. He’s constantly disruptive, has an elite 22% pressure rate in back-to-back seasons, is a good tackler, and is incredibly consistent game-to-game. If he fell anywhere near the Eagles, he’s one of the few guys I would trade up to get.
The guys with a “but”…
These are popular guys to many but have some off-field questions that are so hard for us to know and I hate even talking about it. But teams will know and it’s real. The Eagles have shown they avoid players without the work ethic or potentially serious issues in their past.
Princely Umanmielen
EDP: 43 + production in SEC – off-field questions – fit – age
With an 18% pressure rate, he’s another disruptive pass rusher who is always moving forward and has multiple productive seasons in the SEC. The “but” on him is off-field stuff… he had the altercation with a fan after the Florida game and there’s noise about his work ethic. Add in that he’ll be 23 years old and isn’t great in coverage and these may be knockouts for the Eagles.
Mike Green
EDP: 18 + athleticism + pass rush upside – film vs. P5 schools – poor edge setting – character concerns
I just re-watched him as he’s one I’m lower on than most. His stats are good but it’s a different story when he’s played against future NFLers. I’m weighting the 2024 Ohio State film heavily for that reason – he was pushed out of the play way too often and while I believe he can play the run, he isn’t great at it right now. Add in that he was removed from the UVA football team and if the unconfirmed allegations are true, he’s off a lot of teams’ boards, including mine.
Guys I like for the Eagles
Two guys I like for the as fits for what the Eagles look – explosive and good athletes, an ability to drop into coverage, and capable in run defense.
Josaiah Stewart
EDP: 70 + production + versatility + power + leadership, character – height
If you follow me at all, you’ll know I love Josaiah. He’s short at not quite 6’1″ which will take him off many teams’ boards, but he doesn’t play small. Incredible power and a silly 41% true pass-set win rate, misses few tackles, underrated run defense, and plus coverage value. He’s Nolan Smith-lite without the bend, which is my only concern. When looking at what profile Vic Fangio teams have drafted at EDGE, he’s the best fit in this class not named Abdul Carter. I’m finding a way to leave this draft with him. Period.
He’s here because he’s projected late 3rd round, although I think he goes higher come the draft. I’d take Bradyn over Scourton or Ezeiruaku seven days a week. Not a perfect prospect, but he’s shown multiple years of production with a 17% pressure rate and a good 34% pass rush win rate which puts him up with the top pass rushers the last several drafts. He can get better setting the edge, although it seems technique and not traits.
Guys I like but may not be fits
One thing that is great about Vic is he uses the skills that he has, even if it doesn’t fit his prototypical guy (Brandon Graham is an example), so I could be very wrong that these guys may not be fits for the Eagles. But they are guys I like and think could do well, just probably a different team.
Shemar Stewart
EDP: 24 + traits + versatility inside + run defense – production – fit
A guy where I differ from the stats, which just aren’t there (10% pressure rate). He’s physically impressive, has a couple of “how the &#% did he do that” plays a game, and not sure I’ve seen somebody so often so close to making a play without making one. He’s definitely a high-variance pick that could hit or bust.
JT Tuimoloau
EDP: 42 + run defense – explosiveness
A guy I struggled with as there is a lot to like. He’s a very good run defender which many undervalue and something the Eagles will want. But he isn’t overly explosive and bigger than the Eagles typically draft.
A run through the rest of the top 100 pass rushers
I really like him and I’d draft him, I’m just not sure if you’re taking him as an EDGE or hybrid LB. There’s just so little film on him as a true EDGE – against Texas and Alabama, he only had a handful of true EDGE alignments and a lot of his stats came as a LB. But so often, he was just the best player on the field for UGA.
Mykel Williams
EDP: 11 + run defense – production
I’ve watched him several times and just don’t see what others do. His production is bad and some say “that’s just UGA”, but unlike guys like Nolan Smith, he’s just not consistently impactful. As an example, vs. Texas he logged 4 pressures and 2 sacks but they all came when he was unblocked or Arch held the ball for 3+ seconds – his zero pass rush wins (beating a block in 2;5 seconds) is reflective of the film. His best game against Florida St in the 2023 Bowl Game where he had 6 pressures and 2 sacks? Again, all either unblocked or where the QB held the ball too long – zero pass rush “wins”. He just doesn’t consistently move blockers nor show an ability to bend around them.
Nic Scourton
EDP: 29 – production – size, fit – explosiveness – run defense
A guy I am nowhere near as high on. He’s not a fit for the Eagles, lacks versatility, explosiveness, and for his size, he disappointed against the run. His 11% pressure rate is one of the lower in this class.
Jack Sawyer
EDP: 37 + production – athleticism – ceiling
The guy that makes the most of what he has which is to be appreciated and I view him as a solid floor, lower-ceiling guy. But the Eagles rarely draft guys who aren’t top-tier athletes. He could be very good in the league, I just don’t see him as the best fit and value early R2 for the Eagles.
Another popular Eagles pick just because he’s typically one of the top-ranked EDGEs available at their pick, but he’s a guy that lacks explosiveness and suffers in setting the edge, two things the Eagles will always look for.
Landon Jackson
EDP: 50 + run defense – production – size, fit
Another high-variance pick in my opinion. Lot to like, he’s solid against the run, but he lacks bend and flexibility, doesn’t do well in space, and his production as a pass rusher just isn’t consistently there.
Jared Ivey
EDP: 69 + inside versatility – age – production – size, fit
At almost 6’6″ and 283 pounds, not sure he isn’t better at DT. He’ll turn 24 during his rookie season, lacks production with an 11% pressure rate. He won’t be a fit for the Eagles.
Kyle Kennard
EDP: 71 + explosiveness – late breakout, age – run defense – production
Will also turn 24 this season and only really produced in 2024, his 5th college season – you can wonder if his 2024 jump was because he was on a very good DL. Underlying production stats of an 11% pass rush win rate are concerning, especially given he’s not a great run defender. Not a guy I would take to the Eagles.
Jordan Burch
EDP: 72 + athleticism – fit – late breakout, age – production vs. top teams
Good athlete, but yet another that will be 24 during his rookie season and a late breakout guy which has been a big risk for past guys. At nearly 300 pounds, he’s not the type of EDGE Vic has typically wanted. His 14% pressure rate is ok, but he hasn’t shown his best games against good competition.
Ashton Gillotte
EDP: 89 – size, fit – athleticism
A bigger EDGE at nearly 270 pounds, he’s solid in many ways but not remarkable in any. He isn’t explosive and generally wins with power. Had no success against Joe Alt in 2023. He’ll be decent value here and a fit for some teams, but not the Eagles.
Day 3 guys to know
Day 3 hit rates are really low but there will be guys worth taking. I’m only going to pick a couple of interesting and versatile EDGEs that could fit what the Eagles want, and not run through everybody.
Oluwafemi Oladejo
EDP: 120 + versatility + edge setting + tackling – experience at EDGE – first step
I have to credit PhillyWannaBGM for pointing him out as an Eagles fit. Femi was a LB until getting moved to EDGE week 4 this season. Given his background, he’s got a lot of versatility and covers and tackles well. At pass rush, if you look at him later in the season there’s a big difference – in his last 5 games he had 19 pressures on 123 pass rushes (15% pressure rate) and a 16% win rate with good games against Nebraska and Iowa, two decent pass blocking teams. In the Senior Bowl, he had 4 pressures and 2 sacks on only 23 pass rush reps. Add in that he is known as a leader, and he should be interesting to the Eagles on late day 2 or early day 3.
Jalen McLeod
EDP: R7/UDFA + production + versatility + run defense – size – age
He got worked out at LB at the Senior Bowl given a lot of teams project him there, but I would keep him at EDGE – he can look lost as a LB at times given lack of experience there. What’s interesting is he chose App State and then Auburn because they committed to him as an EDGE. He’s always around the ball – he plays in the SEC and recorded tackles on 16% of run defense snaps (best in this class), had 2 forced fumbles and 7 sacks. If you want to see fun, watch his highlights against Texas A&M, Alabama, and Oklahoma.
To wrap it up, knowing the historical hit rates and what typically drives success, I’ll give my answer to a couple of questions:
“Who do you think are this year’s 4-5 hits in the draft across both days 1 and 2?”
Day 1 guys: Abdul Carter, James Pearce, Jalon Walker (* hybrid LB/EDGE)
Day 2 guys: Josaiah Stewart, Bradyn Swinson
“Who would I target for the Eagles (based on who will actually be available at their picks)?”
R1-32: Unless a guy like Pearce falls, I don’t see an EDGE worth picking here
R2: Josaiah Stewart
R3: Bradyn Swinson
Day 3 / UDFA: Femi Oladejo, Jalen McLeod
While EDGE is the consensus pick, the Eagles don’t need to, nor should they, force a pick in the 1st round. Vic Fangio has historically taken smaller EDGEs that have coverage experience and can be counted on to set an EDGE. Hopefully you see that some of the better options don’t even need to be taken high.
I may differ from most on the quality of this EDGE class and will definitely differ on several prospects, but that’s what makes this fun. And hopefully, the hit rates above show you even in good classes, the number of draft misses at EDGE is high. If you differ, feel free to let me know in the comments.
Thanks for reading and Go Birds.
The salary cap and free agency: Emerging trends and what to expect in 2025
Every year when the new salary cap is announced, headlines talking about the “massive” salary cap jump quickly follow with fan reactions that “now we can go sign <insert top end free agent>”.
The cap going up is good, but it won’t have the benefits allowing the drunken free agency spending most think. I’ve dug into this a few times before, most recently here, but wanted to update the view for 2025.
This year’s cap increase is continuing the post-Covid recovery…
I’m not sure I’ve seen a headline that spoke about the cap increase in percentage terms, it’s always “the cap is going up $x million”. Which is fine and useful, but you really have to look at the percentage change to know what the impacts will be.
We don’t have a final number but the league announced the 2025 cap will be between $277.5M and $281.5M, an increase of $22-26M or between an 8.6-10% increase.
This increase is in line with the cap increases that have occurred post-Covid when the cap shrank in 2021 for the first time in many years, catching a lot of teams exposed on some tough roster decisions.
Prior to Covid, the cap increased a bit over 6% a year. After dropping 8% in 2021, the cap has been making up ground, growing 10% a year from 2022-25. A lot of this is due to more and bigger TV deals as the league started signing more channels, but also re-gaining the prior trend that Covid disrupted.
With the cap, so goes free agency prices though…
Before you get excited that this is “free money” for your favorite team to go spend, know that free agency prices go up just as fast as the cap. If you were hoping to get Milton Williams back at $18-22M a year and now we have extra money for it, well Milt’s price probably just went up to $24-28M.
Here’s a chart showing this. The grey dashed line is the cap increase from 2016-2024. Free agent costs are split by tier (tier 1 are FAs over 5% of the cap, tier 2 are 2.5-5% of the cap, and tier 3 are free agents under 2.5% of the cap).
Couple of things to take away:
Free agent prices follow the cap – as the cap goes up, free agency goes up roughly at the same rate
Recently, the prices of the top free agents (tier 1) have gone up faster than the rest of free agency as well as the overall cap – since 2022, the cap has increased 23% but tier 1 free agents have doubled that, up 44%
What happens at each tier differs by year depending on who the free agents are, so you can’t expect the same trends to hold year over year. But you can expect free agency prices overall to keep going up near the same level as the cap.
Just to be clear, this is a great thing that free agency prices go up – the league makes a ton of money, I’m basically always on the player side, and given they are the product and how much they give to the game in what are very short careers for most, they deserve every penny. It just isn’t the windfall to teams that many think it will be.
Youth at premium positions gets paid
This should be obvious, but just to put some context to how much this is true:
Last year the top contract was Atlanta’s massive overpay of Kirk Cousins
The next 11 were all players under 30 years old and 7 of the top 20 were under 27 years old
Only 3 free agents 30 or older made the top 20 in 2024, the prior two years there were 7 in both 2022 and 2023.
It’s buyer-beware on older free agents
Most older free agents are either QBs or on either of the lines, which are a bit safer bets than other positions. But even still, it’s a buyer-beware situation on older guys as risk is higher.
Last off-season, 30-year old Grover Stewart worked for Indy but Arik Armstead’s 3 year, $45M signing by the Jags may not be working out as he only played 47% of snaps and had good but noticeably down production.
In 2023, the 49ers set the DT market by signing 30-year old Javon Hargrave away from Philly to a 4-year, $84M deal ($40M guaranteed) – it worked in 2023 but he missed the majority of the 2024 season, playing only 104 snaps. The Falcons signing of David Onyemata is a decent signing but production is way down in 2024.
This year’s young free agents
Expect top young players like Tee Higgins, Asante Samuel Jr., Osa Odighizuwa, Javon Holland, Malcolm Koonce, Drew Dalman, Talanoa Hufanga, Will Fries, Camryn Bynum, and our own Milton Williams to all exceed early contract projections with several of them showing up as top deals.
Are there new premium positions?
Everybody always thinks of receiver, pass rusher, tackle, and cornerback as the highly sought after and expensive premium positions. Most still are, but recently free agency has been shifting.
And the league may be catching up to what Howie values.
Defensive Tackle is the new king…
DT has grown massively the past couple of years, up 20% per year (3rd fastest growing position group) and is now the most expensive free agency position after QB and ahead of EDGE, averaging just over $20M AAV for top free agents.
Last year Christian Wilkins hit $27.5M AAV after Hargrave set the market the prior year at a $21M AAV. With the resurgence of stopping the run, interior pressure, and two-high defenses, expect this to continue.
This year Milton Williams, Osa Odighizuwa, Levi Onwuzurike, and BJ Hill all should exceed initial free agency projections and somebody like Milt could challenge for a new top DT contract.
And their counterparts, the interior OL…
Ahead of DTs as the second fastest inflating position group at 25% per year over the past 3 years are the guards and centers. With top contracts averaging $17M last year, teams may be learning that a great OL solves a lot of other issues.
This year expect free agents Trey Smith, Teven Jenkins, Will Fries, Mekhi Becton, and Drew Dalman to be bid up, especially with a bad OL draft class.
Cornerback and tackle no more?
Both positions may need their free agency premium positions card revoked, but it’s not because the positions aren’t valued – neither has seen good players hit free agency lately.
Cornerback free agent prices declined 16% last year, 11% annually over the past 3 years, and 5% over the past 5 years just as overall free agent prices have averaged a 9% increase.
It’s still a premium position but the league may have realized it’s almost impossible to get CBs outside the draft – teams keep their good corners and when they do hit free agency, they are often at the dreaded age wall for corners.
Don’t expect a reversal this year as aside from Asante Samuel Jr. and maybe Byron Murphy Jr., free agency is full of older or mid corners with a couple of “maybe they can turn around” guys like Kristian Fulton and Paulson Adebo. This is why the Eagles having Isaiah Rodgers is so important.
Another position that is down for similar reasons is OT with free agency prices basically flat over the past 3 and 5 year periods. Like CB, it’s not really about devaluation of the position, it’s a position where teams just aren’t letting their good OTs hit free agency.
I expect a reversal at OT this year if Ronnie Stanley, Cam Robinson, and Alric Jackson hit free agency – each will be highly sought out by OL-needy teams.
Click for detail on every position group
2024 Tier 1 FA AAV
2024 Top FA AAV
3-yr AAV Change
1-yr AAV Change
QB
45.0
18.9
49.0%
1.6%
IOL
17.3
13.6
25.0%
38.9%
EDGE
18.3
12.1
6.4%
30.7%
DT
20.3
12.1
20.1%
-1.1%
WR
16.3
11.5
4.1%
14.3%
RB
–
9.6
26.0%
48.8%
OT
15.0
9.5
-0.7%
-26.1%
TE
–
9.3
13.7%
35.4%
SAF
16.8
8.8
-4.9%
15.3%
CB
–
8.2
-10.9%
-15.9%
LB
13.7
8.2
-7.2%
11.0%
And the resurgence of the running back (which Howie may have initiated)…
This one deserves its own call-out as it may be another area where Howie was ahead of the league, maybe single-handedly driving the 2025 market (and draft).
Howie signing Saquon Barkley to a 3-year, $12.58M AAV deal – the 20th biggest free agent contract – shocked all of us, but maybe it’s bigger than that even. Yes, the Eagles won the Super Bowl and Saquon had one of the, if not the, best rushing seasons ever. But maybe more important is the resurgence of rushing in the NFL:
2024 saw the highest rushing rate since at least 2010, hitting 45% of offensive plays
2024 saw 12 teams average 4.5 yards per rush or more, double the 2023 amount
EPA per rush, explosive rush rate, and yards per rush all reversed multi-year declines this year
For the 7-year period from 2017 to 2023 in the peak of the “running backs don’t matter” era, RBs rarely cracked the top 50 free agents with only the 49ers Jerick McKinnon landing at the 30th highest paid free agent in 2018.
Will Howie’s move, jumping out in front of a growing league swing back towards rushing, cause RB prices to again be bid up this year? Expect the two 1,000-yard rushers, Najee Harris (projected at $11-12M AAV) and Aaron Jones ($7M AAV), to exceed projections.
The Eagles are still projected at around $17M of free cap space in 2025, but grow that in 2026-27 with expected departures. They’ll have room to sign some guys and I fully expect them to prioritize and return Zack Baun. Mekhi Becton will have a market and I expect him to price himself out of Philly, but if he comes in below market to stay, he could return.
But as I’ve written on several times, they will be keeping cap space for the upcoming big extensions of Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith. And expect to see some of this “cap windfall” used to extend Jordan Davis and Cam Jurgens ahead of their final years.
Go Birds.
Are younger draft prospects better players? NFL draft age trends
I’ve looked into age trends in the draft in the past but a recent discussion with @PhillyWannaBGM on BlueSky (follow him if you don’t already, not sure there is a better film / scheme follow for Eagles fans) got me to do an update as Covid has distorted the draft in so many ways, with player age being one of the biggest.
Draft picks have been getting younger (until Covid)
Below shows the average age of draft picks for the entire draft, top 3 rounds, and 1st round only. Here’s what to take away from it:
The average age of players in the draft has been decreasing since 2000
The age drop accelerated after 2012 when the rookie wage scale was introduced as players wanted to get to the 2nd contract as young / soon as possible as that is where they made real money
The youth movement is even greater earlier in the draft with R1 almost a full year younger than the overall draft average
Covid reversed this trend dramatically, particularly in later rounds, as players were given another year of eligibility
The rise of NIL may also be contributing to recent changes as R1 picks continued to get older in 2024 while the rest of the draft looks to be returning to prior trends
The early rounds are dominated with younger players…
There will be some selection bias in here – better players will enter the draft earlier and better players will be drafted earlier. But the overall trend holds – the early draft is dominated by younger players:
The 1st round is younger, averaging almost 26 picks aged 22 or younger, 5 picks aged 23, and barely over 1 pick a year aged 24 or older
The 2nd round is similar to the 1st, with a bit more 23 year olds but still very few 24 year or older players
Across the top 100 picks, the draft averages only 6.6 players taken aged 24 or older
Later rounds balance out with fewer and fewer 22 year olds
…even after Covid
It’s a different story post Covid, right? Not at the top of the draft. Overall there are more older players in the draft as kids stayed in school longer, but they are generally landing later in the draft:
Since 2021 the 1st round is still very young, averaging only 1.5 players 24 years or older
The 2nd round is the same, averaging 2.3 players 24 or older
In the top 100 picks it finally starts increasing with 8.5 older players taken
And younger players have consistently outperformed older players
Looking at the past 10 drafts, younger players outperform older players in the NFL at every position group. Below shows player value in the draft (using Pro Football Reference’s AV) normalized by their draft capital to ensure we are properly weighting players. For each position group, value is broken apart by age (24 and older prospects, 23 and younger, and 22 and younger).
At every position, younger players had better NFL careers than older players
The younger players are the more valuable – 23 and younger players dramatically better than 24 plus, but 22 and younger was even better than the 23 and younger
The worst positions to draft older were QB (36% worse for 24 year olds), WR (29% worse), RB (24%), and EDGE (17%)
The least affected positions were IOL (only 5% lower value), surprisingly CB (9%), LB (9%), and DT (10%)
How I think about prospect age
If you follow me online, you will see me (half) jokingly dismiss older prospects, and while being 23 or 24 doesn’t mean a player won’t be good, there are real things to consider:
Some older players were “late breakouts”, meaning their good college years were when they were competing against guys 4-5 or even 6 years younger than them
Their post draft development is more limited than younger guys
And teams may have them for shorter spans than younger players
Late breakout is usually my biggest issue. Some recent 24-year olds like Braden Fiske, Keion White, and Will McDonald all are good pros but all were also very good college players for 3-4 years, playing very well when they were 20 and 21.
Other guys taken that were late breakouts were Phidarian Mathis, Luke Schoonmaker, and Jeff Gladney, none of which have had good pro careers yet. Age guarantees nothing as there are late breakouts that succeed and young guys that don’t, but it is something to consider.
What could it mean for the 2025 draft?
While all ages aren’t out yet for the 2025 class, here are ages of some prominent prospects at the draft:
Age at Draft
Players
23 years old
CB Shavon Revel CB Trey Amos CB Jahdae Barron EDGE Kyle Kennard EDGE Princely Umanmielen EDGE Jordan Burch EDGE Jared Ivey DT JJ Pegues DT Aeneas Peebles IOL Grey Zabel IOL Wyatt Milum DT Alfred Collins DT Omarr Norman-Lott SAF Xavier Watts WR Jayden Higgins WR Xavier Restrepo WR Savion Williams WR Tre Harris QB Shedeur Sanders RB Cam Skattebo
24 years old
DT Darius Alexander SAF Sebastian Castro CB Darien Porter IOL Tate Ratledge QB Dillon Gabriel
25 years old
LB Demetrius Knight
A few to call out:
Darius Alexander – This is how the whole discussion started on a BlueSky post. A popular Eagles pick and a Senior Bowl standout, he’s a guy I, and many, like. His age isn’t officially out but appears to be 24 and turning 25 during the rookie season. And he has some late breakout to him, popping in his 2023 and 2024 seasons at Toledo. I still like him a lot but think R1 buzz is a bit high.
Trey Amos – He will be 23 March 3rd, so he’s on the younger side of the “old guys” list and a guy that seemed to only get noticed this year at Ole Miss. But he had a good junior season at Alabama and then a couple good years prior at LA Lafayette. He’s still a R1 corner for me.
Omarr Norman-Lott is a guy I wrote about in a recent DT article, he’s been very popular recently and there’s a lot to like. But he’s a guy I feel hype has gotten a bit ahead of – his 30% pass rush win rate gets quoted a lot, but he only played 17 snaps a game this year. And at 23 years old, he’s a classic late breakout. There’s some risk here.
Darien Porter – An interesting guy due to his height and speed combination, he’s not only late breakout but he really hasn’t even played until 2024… he has 24 career targets at corner prior to his senior season and only another 17 targets in 2024. Question with Darien is less age and just body of work.
If you like guys like Princely Umanmielen, Jahdae Barron, Jared Ivey, Xavier Watts, Grey Zabel, and Tre Harris before, go ahead and continue liking them as they all strong together several good seasons.
The “Micah Parsons loses his mind (again)” Eagles mock draft
This is primarily a fun article to poke fun at the Cowboys, but also has some real “what if” in here, the type that happens every draft as good players drop. And teams like the Eagles and Ravens have been really good at taking advantage of these drops.
The Eagles last four top picks – Jalen Carter, Nolan Smith, Quinyon Mitchell, and Cooper DeJean – were not supposed to be available anywhere near their pick. And in what’s becoming an annual tradition that brings more joy than Christmas, Micah Parsons loses it on his pod. Again and again.
So, here’s a 2025 mock along these lines with three rules:
It must be a player projected ahead of us – this is the whole point of the article…
It must be realistic – these can’t be “Abdul Carter falls to 32″… there has to be a reason for a drop (injury, etc.) and there have to be valid projections of the player at least close to our pick
It must be highly likely to piss off Micah Parsons
So let’s go.
Round 1
“With the 32nd and final pick in the 1st round of the 2025 NFL draft, the world champion Philadelphia Eagles select… Emeka Egbuka, wide receiver, Ohio State…”
The Eagles put themselves further out in front of the league and push their already difficult to defend offense into the ridiculous realm, zagging as the rest of the league zigs by going heavily after defensive prospects in the 1st round.
The pick is extra annoying to Micah. Earlier, the Cowboys, who also desperately need a receiver, reach for an offensive lineman at 12 in a really weak OL class. Micah is professional in his reaction, but makes the point that the Cowboys need more weapons for his good friend CeeDee.
Why this could happen
Emeka is projected at pick 23 right now – here’s my scenario on why and how he could be available:
Emeka is projected to be WR4 but Matthew Golden is a close WR5 at pick 28 and more and more people are putting Golden ahead of Emeka
Over the last 10 drafts, an average of 4.5 receivers have been taken in the 1st with WR5 not going until R2 in 5 of the last 10 drafts
The league goes heavily after defensive players in this draft, reversing from last year when 24 picks including the first 14 were offense
Golden, an outside X-receiver, does end up going ahead of Emeka who is primarily viewed as an NFL slot – the late R1 teams looking for WR (LAC, PIT, WAS, LAR) all need outside guys
In this simulation, the Steelers at 21 are the last team to take a receiver in R1 and do go with Matthew Golden, starting Emeka’s drop that lands him at the Eagles.
Why it makes sense
Most will hate this pick but it makes sense as Howie continues to stay ahead of the league:
Emeka is a top 20 talent with 4.3s speed, maybe the best route runner in this class, and catches everything with a career 5% drop rate
Fills the Eagles WR3 role as Jahan Dotson will not be kept after the 2025 season (and allows a later trade of Dotson)
Emeka is another high-character leader, has willingly blocked and done whatever was needed, thinks like a coordinator as he showed pointing out what OSU should run to win the CFBCG, and fits perfectly into an offense with multiple other alpha WRs
Everybody views the Eagles “needs” on the defensive side, but Howie doesn’t enter the draft with any “needs”. He instead drafts for the future and after back-to-back drafts that invested heavily on defense with 8 of the last 10 top-100 picks being defense, he takes offense when the value is just too great to pass up.
The rich get richer and Howie ups the ante on the league where two good receivers is expected for contenders.
Round 2
Overnight, the other shoe drops as the Eagles send Jahan Dotson to the Houston Texans – desperate for receivers as they try to stay a contender in the AFC – for pick 4-125. Howie recoups some of the value from the Dotson trade ahead of losing him after the 2025 season as they won’t pay his estimated $15M 5th year option.
The Eagles bring out newly inducted Hall of Fame cornerback Eric Allen to announce their 2nd round pick. And it couldn’t be more perfect.
“It’s an honor to announce the 2nd round pick for our world champion Philadelphia Eagles… the Eagles select the next LOCKDOWN cornerback to wear green, Benjamin Morrison, Notre Dame”
Micah will be off the air but again is speechless that the league allows a 1st round talent to fall to the Eagles. He does get a new linemate as the Cowboys use their 2nd round pick on run-stopping DT Deone Walker, a necessary re-do on the Mazi Smith pick.
Why this could happen
You say “Morrison won’t be available here”, right? I don’t think so either but it’s not crazy.
Pre-draft Morrison has been dropping due to his injury and inability to work out
Several prominent mocks and big boards have him lower – Dane Brugler has him (coincidentally) at pick 64 and Daniel Jeremiah has him at 45, largely due to injury uncertainty
Rumor is that his hip will check out pre-draft but some teams may be concerned on overall injury history as he also had a shoulder surgery
Other top players have dropped a large amount from February projections – also injured Kool-Aid McKinstry last year went from pick 16 to be taken at 41, Azeez Ojulari dropped from the 20s to 50 due to degenerative leg concerns, Andrew Booth also had injuries and dropped from 20 to 42, Kelee Ringo dropped from 20 to 105, top LB JOK dropped from 20 to 52
Why it makes sense
The Eagles are setup well for the next couple of years across most of their starting lineups with only a few exceptions. An outside CB opposite Quinyon is one of them. And they get their guy, solidifying the secondary for years.
Supposed 4.39 speed and may be the best man cover CB in this class
The best corner film against Marvin Harrison Jr, holding him to 3/7/30 with 2 PBUs
Allowed an average of 35 YPG to Jordan Addison, Puka Nacua, Zay Flowers, Josh Downs
Well known work ethic and seriousness about football
Round 3
Prior to the draft, Philly trades Kenny Pickett to the Giants for a 4th rounder and now use that as capital to move up for their EDGE.
“Cincinnati has traded the 80th pick to the Philadelphia Eagles… with the 80th pick, the Philadelphia Eagles select Josaiah Stewart, edge rusher, University of Michigan”
All of Philly was in full panic mode as the Eagles waited until the 3rd round for another pass rusher but they get aggressive and move up for the guy who is (aside from Abdul Carter) the best fit for Fangio’s defense in this draft.
Following are EDGEs that each of Fangio’s defenses have drafted – they are smaller, have produced at both pass rush and run defense, and have coverage experience. Josaiah is one of the few in this class that match these traits.
The Eagles absolutely need to add depth to the EDGE room, but they feel a lot better about their situation than most fans do.
Nolan Smith proved his ability this year and is only entering his 3rd season and 24 years old
Few rookie pass rushers perform but over the last 7 games of the season, Jalyx Hunt performed as well as, or better, than Josh Sweat (12% pressure rate vs. 8%, 2 sacks vs. 3, 16% run stop vs. 11%) – he will take another step up in 2025
Nothing is expected from Bryce Huff but the Eagles will get something from him in 2025
Add in a lower-cost free agency add like Joseph Ossai, and the Eagles DL is not taking a step back in 2025
Day 3
Now to just to quickly round out the draft. Micah has stopped watching and rumor has it he has been seen on the phone with his agent quite a lot this weekend…
The Eagles finish the draft with two underrated trenches picks, a new 3rd QB as Tanner moves into the QB2 role, a massive developmental tackle, another shot on an athletic tight end, and a great value on one of the best coverage linebackers in this class.
R4-125 (from HOU): DT JJ Pegues, Ole Miss
R4-128: OG/OC Luke Kandra, Cincinnati
R5-161: QB Kurtis Rourke, Indiana
R5-165: OT Hollin Pierce, Rutgers
R5-168: TE Oronde Gadsden II, Syracuse
R7-231: LB Teddye Buchanan, Cal
Is this draft going to happen? No. Is it what my mock would be? Also no. But we all get locked into our guys and positions – this year it’s take an EDGE, check… take a tight end, check… Howie surprises us every few years and it’s always because he is investing well ahead of needs and because value fell.
The above is just an exercise in what a different draft would be where we just take great players of value that fall. We won’t get three consecutive value drops, but based on recent history, I’d expect somebody that Howie pounces on.
Projecting DTs to the NFL and a look at the 2025 draft class
I wrote a similar look into the 2025 EDGE draft class here and now will do the same for the defensive tackles. And, I will make the same caveat up front – I don’t believe in solely looking at stats for players, you have to watch the film. But college production does matter and it helps surface risk on prospects.
What good pro DTs have in common
If you look at the top DTs in the NFL today, in college they pretty much all were:
Good pass rushers (pass rush win rates around 20% or above)
Good run defenders (run stop rates at 11% or above)
Or both
Just like EDGEs, having high pass rush or run stop rates doesn’t guarantee success in the NFL, but showing production in college certainly helps.
Below shows DTs over the past 5 drafts with their run stop rates on the x-axis and pass rush win rates on the y-axis. NFL DTs drafted over the last 5 drafts are in grey and this year’s top projected DTs are in blue to show how they compare. For DTs in the NFL, their circle size shows their player value, with larger circles being better DTs.
When you look at where the top DTs over the past 5 drafts have come from, you see:
7 of the top 10 DTs had pass rush win rates over 20% (these are picks like Jalen Carter, Nnamdi Madubuike, and Derrick Brown)
9 of the top 10 had run stop rates over 11% (guys like Kobie Turner, Keeanu Benton, T’Vondre Sweat, and Jordan Davis show up here)
Only 2 failed to hit either threshold in college (Alim McNeil and Gervon Dexter)
While it’s not super common to find guys that produce at a high level as both pass rushers and run defenders, draft hit rates are almost 80% when DTs produce at both. And unsurprisingly, when DTs don’t show college production at either, draft hit rates are poor at just 25%.
A look at the 2025 DT draft class
DT prices have been rising fast in free agency, last year passing EDGEs which most people don’t realize. This trend likely continues this off-season for two reasons:
Three young, top DTs are hitting the market in Milton Williams, Osa Odighizuwa, and Levi Onwuzurike
It’s a copycat league and the Eagles DL showed in dismantling the Chiefs what a difference they can make to not only the pass rush but the coverage
But if you need an interior defender, it’s a great year in the draft with both strength at the top and amazing depth. Below are the top DTs with their college pass rush win rates for true pass sets and run stop rates and sorted by their current expected draft position (EDP):
EDP
Player
School
Pass Rush Win Rate
Run Stop Rate
5
Mason Graham
Michigan
21.7%
14.3%
22
Walter Nolen
Ole Miss
19.5%
14.3%
25
Kenneth Grant
Michigan
14.3%
10.1%
34
Derrick Harmon
Oregon
26.9%
10.3%
38
Tyleik Williams
Ohio St
10.0%
8.8%
53
Deone Walker
Kentucky
14.7%
7.3%
61
Alfred Collins
Texas
14.3%
9.4%
62
TJ Sanders
South Carolina
21.2%
11.3%
67
Darius Alexander
Toledo
22.6%
9.2%
70
Omarr Norman-Lott
Tennessee
30.8%
10.5%
75
Shemar Turner
Texas A&M
5.9%
8.8%
100
Jordan Phillips
Maryland
16.7%
7.5%
102
Joshua Farmer
Florida St
17.4%
6.6%
117
Aeneas Peebles
Virginia Tech
27.3%
9.0%
127
JJ Pegues
Ole Miss
19.6%
11.3%
128
Ty Robinson
Nebraska
13.4%
11.7%
148
CJ West
Indiana
12.8%
12.4%
157
Rylie Mills
Notre Dame
18.9%
8.5%
184
Simeon Barrow
Miami
14.8%
12.3%
187
Cam Jackson
Florida
8.6%
10.8%
190
Howard Cross
Notre Dame
14.4%
7.1%
238
Jamaree Caldwell
Oregon
17.7%
8.6%
261
Thor Griffith
Louisville
17.7%
11.7%
I’m even more bullish than consensus with 5 DTs graded as 1st round guys. Come April 24th, I think we will see the league go harder after DTs than consensus has right now.
The top-end
These are the “rare air” guys above that have produced both rushing the passer and stopping the run. You are hoping they are cornerstones of your line and on the field all the time. There are two really great options this year and guys the Eagles will have no shot at
Mason Graham and Walter Nolen are the two in this class at the top for good reasons. Both are disruptive pass rushers, can handle double-teams, and show value against both the run and pass. These are the guys I said above that you don’t see come around often.
Many boards and mocks have Nolen near the end of the 1st round or early 2nd which I don’t believe at all. The only reason he drops is if there is some concern on character as he had some recruiting and school issues in his past.
The underrated (also, my Eagles targets)
If you are drafting an Eagles linemen, they better be explosive, test well, and have produced on the field against good competition. Add in character and leadership and you have your draft targets.
TJ Sanders is a guy I have liked for a while and am much higher on than consensus, having him as DT4 and in R1. Only 21 years old, 6’3 3/4″ and 284 pounds with 33 5/8″ arms, he’s explosive and going to test really well. Playing in the SEC, over the past two seasons he has good film against teams like UGA, Clemson, Kentucky, and Texas A&M.
TJ speaks openly on his pride in stopping the run which I love. He’s powerful for his size and is second in this class in his pass rush productivity (hits, hurries, sacks) behind only Omarr Norman-Lott. He reminds me a lot of Osa Odigizuwa with his size, style, and ability to shoot gaps, but is a much better tackler and run defender.
I’m not sure why he isn’t solidly in round 1. Since he’s my top guy for the Eagles, here are some clips to show why I like him:
Derrick Harmon is showing up more and more in 1st round mocks so may graduate from the “underrated” list before the draft. Another powerful and disruptive DT that can play all 3 downs. He is a bit more up-and-down on film and needs to clean up tackling. I have him behind Sanders at DT5.
Darius Alexander is a popular guy for Eagles fans after drafting Toledo teammate Quinyon last year. I noticed him first against my alma mater Pitt this year where he seemed to be constantly in the backfield with a sack, hit, couple of hurries, and several good run stops. Add in that he’s a trash talker on the field, and he could fill BG’s role…
And lastly, Nolen’s Ole Miss linemate JJ Pegues is a guy that I think is going to outperform his draft slot. If you want athletic traits, there may not be a better DT in this class – he’s 6’2″ 323 and as an ex-TE, his movement pops right away. He has recorded one of the fastest get-off times in this class and produced at a high level this year – his 0.2 yard average depth of tackle is best in this class. A team captain and member of the SEC Football Leadership Council, he brings the intangibles the Eagles often look for.
The run-stoppers
If you are a team that needs primarily a gap-consuming run stopper, and there should be more interest than usual this year with the shift back towards running, there are several guys.
Kenneth Grant should be the top guy this year if you need it. At 6’3″ and 339 pounds, he will consumes doubles and has really great film against good teams. I could see him go as high as the 49ers or Cowboys who both need to get better stopping the run if they want to compete in the NFC. And if he’s there late and I’m the Bills or Chiefs, I take him.
If you look at the chart above, Alfred Collins is one of the guys that fails to cross either threshold but he’s a guy I would bet on if you needed a day 2 run defender. Lot of guys fail on film when you see them against double teams… Collins does not. Just know what you are getting as his pass rush upside is limited.
Jamaree Caldwell is a guy that shows how deep this class is, projected late day 3 right now. At 6’2″, 342 pounds, he’s got surprising burst, enough that Houston played him on the EDGE and one of the only guys that gave Grey Zabel trouble at the Senior Bowl. If you need a two-gapping DT, I’m not sure there’s a better value in this class.
A few other guys fall in this run-stopping category but I’m not as high on for various reasons, especially where they are projected to get taken. Ohio State’s Tyleik Williams has lots of flashes but I thought had too much trouble consistently disengaging from blocks. Deone Walker is massive but it works against him – against UGA he was consistently pushed backwards by their interior.
The potential values
Omarr Norman-Lott is a really popular pick and I like him a lot, but there’s always guys whose stats get overvalued – I see a lot of people talking about his 30% pass rush win rate but you have to remember, his sample size is really small, averaging only 17 snaps a game. There’s a lot to like – he’s explosive and holds up on doubles but could be better shedding and finishing tackles. He reminds me a bit of Keeanu Benton but given how little he played, there’s some risk and projection. If he drops to late day 2, he could be good value.
Virginia Tech is my second college team and watching Aeneas Peebles this year, I’m not sure I saw a game where he wasn’t disruptive. Projected early day 3, he is one of the fastest – if not the fastest – off the snap in this class and generates immediate pressure. He’ll be 24 at the start of the 2025 season which is a negative.
Rylie Mills is a guy seldom talked about and with his season-ending injury, probably falls. He’s athletic but not sudden. He’s strong and never gives up on a play, lot of film of him tracking ball carriers down in space. He’s consistently produced for several years now at Notre Dame and will be a solid day 3 value.
An all-time lineman name, Harvard transfer and Louisville standout Thor Griffith is buried deep in the draft. He’s short at 6’2″ but 320 pounds, he is one of the best athletes in this class. Bruce Feldman included him on his Freaks List and look at these numbers for his size: 4.95 40, 1.65 second 10-yard, and 45 reps on the bench. In the last 10 years, nobody has hit 45 reps on the bench and only four guys have hit 40.
What I would do as GM for each NFC East team
I have to credit Justin David (@jdtbirds17.bsky.social) for this idea when he made a point that yes, Washington hit on a QB but they have work to do before they’re anointed an NFC powerhouse of the future (if you don’t follow him, he’s a great follow on Blue Sky).
The NFC East now goes through Philadelphia and while the NFL is so unpredictable, the Eagles look to be as set as any NFL team ever can be with a young and talented roster.
Here’s what I would do as each NFC East team’s GM to try and compete with the Eagles – my strategy and who I’m signing and drafting. And lastly, what I’m doing as the Eagles to stay on top.
“Build the core” Don’t allow making the NFC Championship game let you be overconfident…
I don’t bet, but if I did I’d take the “under” on whatever Washington’s win line is for 2025.
They should be really excited for what they have… a new owner, a franchise QB, and getting so close to the Super Bowl. But they aren’t built to sustain and need to understand 2024 will be hard to repeat without building a core on both sides of the ball.
Current situation
Positives:
You have your franchise QB
Ton of cap space the next 3 years (top 10 in the league in free space)
Negatives:
They succeeded on the back of Jayden and a hodge-podge of signings with few long-term core players besides Cosmi and maybe Dyami Brown and Sainristil
8th oldest roster in the league (27.4 snap-weighted age)
Losing a lot in free agency – 5 of 7 WRs, 2 TEs, both backup QBs, 2 OL, 3 CBs and a SAF, 3 LBs, 4 DL, and the entire special teams unit except the long snapper
23rd ranked defense
Have not drafted well the past 3 years with 4 of 24 picks being hits
Strategy for the off-season: “Build a core”
The Commanders need a lot and I’m trying to do a few things:
For the big free agency moves, sign guys that can be here as part of a multi-year core
Add talent around Jayden
Look for hard to get positions (DT, EDGE, WR, CB) in the draft
Free agency and the draft
Free agency priorities: Both of these guys are young and can serve as a multi-year core which is our goal. McLaurin is likely done after the 2025 season and they now could join the top teams with two WR1s by adding Tee. Adebo is a solid CB that also allows them to move Sainristil to the slot if needed.
Free Agent
Contract
WR Tee Higgins
4 yr / $120M, $70M gtd
CB Paulson Adebo
3 yr / $35M, $20M gtd
Draft: With their top three picks (WAS doesn’t have a 4th round pick), I’m taking another top end WR, a DT to add run-defense value, and a much-needed CB.
Pick
Player
Comment
R1-29
WR Matthew Golden
This gives you Golden and Tee Higgins for 4 years along with McLaurin in 2025
R2-61
DT Alfred Collins
They don’t have a single plus run defender and need several guys on the DL
R3-79
CB Maxwell Hairston
They almost have to take one or more CBs with the entire secondary hitting free agency
R4
No pick
Dallas Cowboys
“Soft re-build around Dak” We can’t fix the real problem, they’re committed to Dak, and a full blow-up isn’t possible
They are locked into Dak for several years so no matter how much their fans what to “blow it up”, it makes no sense. I’m going to lean into trying to make this soft rebuild work by going after a top offense and a defense that can do enough.
They’ll still get whacked by Philly and probably Washington, but hey, we tried.
Current situation
Positives:
A bad 2025 cap situation ($7M over) improves with plenty of space in 2026-27
Cornerstone players in CeeDee Lamb and Micah Parsons
Negatives:
Jerry Jones as GM
Locked into Dak Prescott, good or bad, until the 2027 season
Historically a very good drafting team, their last 2 drafts have been really bad (only 1 of 16 picks are even an average value player)
Losing a lot of key players in free agency including 5 on the DL, 2 on the OL, WR2, and both backup QBs
Overpaid on contract extensions by waiting too long, now with the most expensive QB and 2nd most expensive WR in the league
Projected to have 5th hardest 2025 schedule
Strategy for the off-season: “Win with offense”
“Blowing it up” and trading CeeDee or Micah or Dak is trendy among Cowboys fans but I’m going the other way – you are locked into Dak for several years and aren’t fully re-building, so you don’t get rid of top pass rushers or receivers. Ever.
Get to $20M free cap space by restructuring Dak, hope he stays healthy
Extend Micah (4 yr / $140M) as soon as possible to get ahead of TJ Watt, Danielle Hunter, and Trey Hendrickson setting the market
Go all in on offense – add offensive weapons and depth on the OL
Add a couple of guys to the DL to improve the run defense, trust in the secondary pieces you have
Free agency priorities: We are focusing on replacing Osa Odighizuwa (expensive) and DeMarcus Lawrence (old) and adding guys that aren’t complete liabilities in the run game.
Free Agent
Contract
RG Kevin Zeitler
1 yr / $6M
DT Calais Campbell
1 yr / $3M
ED Derek Barnett
2 yr / $4M
Draft: Going heavy offense with one of the most solid WRs in this class and a 3-down RB that adds to the pass game.
Pick
Player
Comment
R1-12
WR Emeka Egbuka
They have nice pieces but no real receiving option past CeeDee – we change that
R2-44
RB Kaleb Johnson
Forget Jeanty in R1 which is a terrible use of draft capital – Kaleb is better value here
R3-76
DT JJ Pegues
A big interior defender that can take snaps away from Mazi who they need to admit was probably a miss
R4
No pick
New York Giants
“Create multiple paths to a QB” Until they have their QB, nothing matters – we put multiple chips on the table
Like Dallas, the Giants real issues are ownership and GM and while they aren’t changing that in the real-world, since I’m writing this as their GM, I get to do what I want…
But when I look at them, if they get a QB and make a couple of good decisions, they could turn around quicker than most give them credit for. So here goes.
Current situation
Positives:
2nd youngest roster
Top 10 in free cap space the next two years
Limited 2025 free agent losses (RG, one WR, a SAF)
Malik Nabers, Andrew Thomas, Brian Burns, Kayvon, Tyler Nubin, and Andru Phillips are guys to build around
Negatives:
They don’t pick high enough in this draft to ensure their QB choice
Have invested poorly – where they have spent, it’s been on a bad QB, non-premium positions, and overspends on the OL
Projected to have the hardest 2025 schedule
Strategy for the off-season: “Multiple paths to finding a QB”
The Giants have no 2025 signed QBs so you have to take a shot at a QB in the draft, but picking third, I’m not forcing a pick in the 1st with the only QB I like (Cam Ward) going 1st. We’ll set ourselves up with multiple options at a QB, including two lost-cost options this year and a potential big play in 2026:
Trade for QB Kenny Pickett (send R4-134 to PHI)
Put their 1st round pick for sale to get a 2026 1st – here I’m mocking a trade with the Raiders, getting their R1-7 and a 2026 1st
Draft a low risk QB option this year
Plan to re-tool their awful OL
Free agency priorities: Enough with half-baked swings at improving the OL, go sign one of the top FAs to take over a guard spot. Add Chris Godwin who I think is the best FA pass catcher for the value this year and makes Malik Nabers even better with another top WR. Then depth at CB that can play inside or out.
Free Agent
Contract
RG Teven Jenkins
3 yr / $40M, $22M gtd
WR Chris Godwin
3 yr / $55M, $35M gtd
CB Nate Hobbs
2 yr / $7M
Draft: After Cam Ward goes 1 and Abdul Carter 2, the Giants pass on the opportunity to take Travis Hunter and trade down to 7, allowing the Raiders to move up and take Shedeur Sanders for new OC Chip Kelly. In the 2nd, we draft somebody to push/replace Jon Runyan Jr. and then take our development QB.
Pick
Player
Comment
R1-7 (from LV)
DT Mason Graham
The Giants have their pick of Graham, Pearce, and Josh Simmons
R2-34
OL Armand Membou
Whether he stays at OT or moves to OG, the Giants could use OL help
R3-65
QB Kyle McCord
Here’s my shot at a low-risk QB – he’s one of the better QBs against pressure
R4-134
Traded
Sent to PHI for QB Kenny Pickett
Philadelphia Eagles
“Take advantage of your strong roster” Invest ahead of needs and keep taking advantage of value in the draft
Keep on with the “rich get richer”. Fill holes in free agency and infuriate the league by letting the draft drop great players of value to us.
Current situation
Positives:
Core is under contract for years – QB, two WRs, most of OL, two young CBs, two DTs, EDGE, RB
League’s top GM in managing the cap
Drafted extremely well the past several years including being a top team on day 3
6th youngest roster (26.5 snap-weighted age)
Negatives:
Cap space is limited, especially when projecting the upcoming extensions
Projected 4th hardest 2025 schedule
Looking ahead to eventually replace near irreplaceable guys in Lane Johnson and Saquon Barkley
Revolving door of coordinators and coaches
Strategy for the off-season: “Investing ahead of needs”
The Eagles core is locked in for years so they can continue with their preferred approach of adding good players and focus on needs 1-2 years out:
Take advantage of the strong position groups in this draft (DL and TE particularly)
Address key needs or CB2, LB, and a hedge against Bryce Huff not developing in free agency
Adding OL depth, particularly a backup center
Free agency priorities: I did a deeper dive on what I would do in free agency here but will hit the top priorities, which are:
Free Agent
Contract
LB Zack Baun
3 yr / $39M, $26M gtd
EDGE Joseph Ossai
2 yr / $11M, $6M gtd
OL Brady Christensen
1 yr / $3M
CB Isaiah Rodgers
3 yr / $24M, $15M gtd
Draft: With a solid and young roster, the Eagles are in a position to take advantage of value this draft. And we do right off the bat with our friend Kellen Moore. After taking DT Walter Nolen with their R1-9 pick, the Saints use one of their extra R3 picks to move up ahead of CLE and NYG to take a QB for Kellen.
The Eagles send R1-32 and R1-95 to the Saints for R1-40, R3-71, and R4-111. Kellen gets a QB and Howie “wins” the trade with the equivalent of am extra late day 2 pick.
Pick
Player
Comment
R2-40 (from NO)
DT TJ Sanders
Disruptive, explosive, versatile across the line and takes pride in run defense – one of my favorite DTs and the Eagles grab a 1st round talent here
R2-62
EDGE Josaiah Stewart
Undersized but there’s no better fit for what the Eagles want at EDGE – he has a silly 40% win rate
R3-71 (from NO)
TE Gunnar Helm
One of the most well-rounded, high floor TEs in this class, he drops nothing and blocks well
R4-111 (from NO)
CB Dorian Strong
An aggressive, confident, athletic CB and continue to add low-cost, high-upside guys
R4-129
OT Hollin Pierce
We jump other teams trying to out-Howie Howie by taking this year’s massive developmental tackle from just over the river
R4-134 (from NYG)
LB Teddye Buchanan
Could be the best coverage LB in this class
Good luck NFC East, the division still goes through South Philly.
Eagles off-season free agency (and one trade) targets
As we near free agency, I wanted to take a look at what positions I would prioritize and potential fits for the Eagles. While their roster is young with a majority of key players locked up, there are some needs and always areas to improve.
How to think about free agency this year
First, let’s lay out how Howie and the Eagles approach free agency and what the realities of this off-season are.
Howie fills holes in free agency and almost never leaves himself NEEDING to draft a position
The needs we all see, with EDGE being at the top and DT, CB2, and RG, TE following, are all popular mock draft picks. And I fully believe Howie will come away from the draft with one or more picks on the DL.
But Howie will stick to his view of filling needs in free agency and investing ahead of needs at a position he values with top picks which I wrote about here:
Last off-season was an outlier for Howie with two top-20 free agent signings in Saquon Barkley (20th) and Bryce Huff (9th). Prior to that, Howie only signed 3 top-20 free agents, all on the defensive line: Malik Jackson in 2019 (19th top free agent), Javon Hargrave in 2020 (11th), and Haason Reddick in 2022 (10th).
The looming extensions will limit the Eagles moves
Everybody will go to OverTheCap.com and see the Eagles have $18M of cap space and then trust in Howie that they can go sign anybody they want.
The issue is the Eagles will extend Jordan Davis and Cam Jurgens in the next year and then Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith the following year. Carter will set the DT market and all will be significant deals. I wrote here on what Howie’s extensions generally look like and how these deals could hit:
Plan for the majority of Eagles free agency moves this year to be limited to 1-2 year deals (Zack Baun being the likely exception).
Extension
2025
2026
2027
2028
Jordan Davis
$5M
$8M
$11M
Cam Jurgens
$4M
$7M
$9M
Jalen Carter
$11M
$17M
Nolan Smith
$8M
$12M
Totals:
$9M
$34M
$49M
While Howie will always be opportunistic and take good players if available, if you anchor on Howie filling key needs in free agency, you can expect him to prioritize the following positions:
EDGE: A mid-market pass rusher
The Eagles will feel good with Nolan and Jalyx, but need a guy that can play 300 snaps+ and hedge against Bryce Huff not developing
# rostered
6
Signed
Nolan Smith Jalyx Hunt Bryce Huff
Projected Losses
Brandon Graham Josh Sweat
Practice Squad
KJ Henry Charles Harris Ochaun Mathis
The moves I would make:
Joseph Ossai, CIN Offer: 2 years, $11M, $6M gtd (FA comp DJ Wonnum) Still remembered in Cincy as the guy that cost them a trip to the Super Bowl when he got flagged for pushing Mahomes as he was going out of bounds, he’s young and athletic and is a low-cost bet on a guy maybe reaching his potential. A bit bigger at 260 pounds, he’s not typically what Fangio looks for in EDGEs but gives some flexibility, lining up from the B-gap out. He’s under-performed but hope he benefits in Philly where the DL isn’t just one guy like it was in Cincy.
Other options:
EDGE is never a good free agency market as it’s either old, expensive, or both. You either pay near $20M a year or you get somebody that hasn’t started, was injured, or has under-performed their potential.
Baron Browning, ARI Offer: 1 year, $6M (FA comp Joshua Uche) Browning is an interesting guy – originally drafted by the Broncos when Vic Fangio was there, he’s the best stylistic fit for the Eagles. And he has performed as a pass rusher with a 17% win rate. The issue is he just has not stayed healthy missing time in 2024 with a neck and foot, 2023 with a concussion and knee, 2022 with a back and hip, and 2021 with a back.
Victor Dimukeje, ARI Offer: 1 year, $2.5M (FA comp K’Lavon Chaisson) Only 25 years old and buried on Arizona’s depth chart, he only played 65 snaps last year but was productive. He’s a bit bigger but not a plus-athlete.
Azeez Ojulari, NYG Offer: 2 years, $16M, $8M gtd (FA comp Yetur Gross-Matos) He’s got the pedigree and high draft capital but he couldn’t pull a R4-5 pick this trade deadline and anything over $8-9M AAV is an overpay. He’s been disappointing but is athletic, still not 25 and a high character guy. With a 14.5% pass rush win rate, think Derek Barnett without the penalties.
OL: Adding depth and flexibility
The Eagles are in great shape on the OL but need to address backup center and tackle and could be looking for somebody to compete at RG
# rostered
9
Signed
Jordan Mailata Landon Dickerson Cam Jurgens Lane Johnson Tyler Steen Trevor Keegan Darian Kinnard Brett Toth
Projected Losses
Mekhi Becton Fred Johnson Le’Raven Clark Jack Driscoll Nick Gates
Practice Squad
Laekin Vakalahi
While most fans retain hope for Mekhi Becton to return, I see almost no chance of it. The Eagles already have 3 of the top OL contracts (Mailata, Lane, and Landon) and will add a 4th when Jurgens is extended – they just can’t invest that much on the OL as Becton’s market is likely 3 years at $15-17M AAV.
The Eagles could use depth – tackles Fred Johnson and Le’Raven Clark, swing OG/OT Jack Driscoll, and backup center Nick Gates all hit free agency with all except Driscoll and Johnson over 30 years old.
The moves I would make:
Re-sign Fred Johnson Offer: 1 year, $1.5M AAV I think fears that he has a bigger market are overblown and he returns to what he sees is a great situation.
OC/OG/OT Brady Christensen, CAR Offer: 1 year, $3M (FA comp Coleman Shelton or Connor Williams) Brady brings great athleticism and flexibility the Eagles may need this off-season, filling in at all 5 spots including 250 snaps at center and 500 at RT/LT. He wants to test the market but won’t sign for much, he’s another guy that could see Philly as a place to raise his value for 2026.
Other options:
There are a lot of options and every year, it’s a position where you can find affordable guys. There are several that would be cheaper and as good or better options than Becton.
OG/OC Ben Bartch, SF Offer: 1 year, $2.5M (FA comp Dalton Risner) A 26-year old Division III 4th round pick that finally put it together in SF before having a pile roll up on his ankle, he can play each guard spot and fill in at center.
OG/RT Larry Borom, CHI Offer: 1 year, $2M (FA comp Mekhi Becton) Last year Mekhi was the diamond Howie and Stoutland found, pulling an underachieving, injury-plagued, athletic tackle over from a horribly run organization and switching his position in a cheap upside free agent signing. Larry Borom fits all of that this year.
OG Kevin Zeitler, DET Offer: 1 year, $6M (FA comp himself last year) He’s 34 years old and the Eagles really never go after guys this old, but this wouldn’t be crazy. He’s a RG with over 13,000 snaps there if you don’t want to hand this over to Steen or Keegan. He’s big at 6’4″ 340 pounds. He’s played 1,000 snaps every year for a decade. And he has shown no signs of slowing down with one of his best professional careers in 2024, being the 3rd best IOL in blown block percentage.
LB: Keeping what’s finally good
The Eagles have a lot of work to do here as they really only have one rostered LB with Jeremiah Trotter and unfortunately need to plan like Nakobe is not in their future plans given the poor return history from patella tears
# rostered
5
Signed
Jeremiah Trotter Jr. Nakobe Dean (injured)
Projected Losses
Zack Baun Oren Burks Nicholas Morrow Ben VanSumeran
Practice Squad
Laekin Vakalahi
The moves I would make:
Re-sign Zack Baun Offer: 3 year, $13M AAV, $26M gtd He was a top priority before Nakobe went down but now he is almost a must-have. Baun supposedly wants $13M and I previously thought $11-12M, so I’ll just make sure we get him.
Re-sign Oren Burks Offer: 1 year, $2.5M AAV Maybe there’s a market for him and we can’t bring him back cheaply, but he played well and is an underrated coverage LB especially considering the alternatives.
Other options:
It’s a good year if you need a LB in free agency with Dre Greenlaw, Nick Bolton, Jamien Sherwood, in addition to Baun at the top. And there are some good value guys, including a repeat from my free agency wish list last year.
Tyrel Dodson, MIA Offer: 1 year, $2.5M AAV He was on my list of “upside” free agency targets last year and had a weird 2024 season – signed by Seattle and played decent, but was a surprise release after week 9, then picked up by Miami and he took over the defensive play-calling. He’s a solid coverage LB but up-and-down run defender that is a comparable target if you can’t return Oren.
CB: Decisions to make at CB2…
Doubling up in last year’s draft re-made the cornerback room but with Slay nearing the end and Isaiah Rodgers hitting free agency, so much comes down to what the Eagles think about Kelee Ringo
# rostered
6-7
Signed
Quinyon Mitchell Cooper DeJean Kelee Ringo Eli Ricks
Projected Losses
Avonte Maddox Darius Slay Isaiah Rodgers James Bradberry
Practice Squad
AJ Woods Tariq Castro-Fields Parry Nickerson
The moves I would make:
Isaiah Rodgers Offer: 3 year $24M with $15M gtd He’s a solid CB2, is a dependable tackler run well, plays special teams, and wants to stay in Philly. At 27 years old, you can structure an effective 2-year deal to limit age risk and go in with Kelee and Isaiah as your options at the other outside corner.
Other options:
Free agency is really bad for CBs this year with either expensive options (DJ Reed, Charvarius Ward, Byron Murphy), older guys (Rasul Douglas, Mike Hilton, Stephon Gilmore), guys that don’t tackle well (Asante Samuel Jr, Carlton Davis), or guys that can’t stop getting called for DPI (Paulson Adebo, Kristian Fulton).
Darius Slay Offer: 1 year $11M gtd Yep, it wouldn’t be crazy to bring Slay back – he’s played really well this year and while you are continuously in risk of him just dropping off a cliff, the risk is limited as long as it’s a 1-year. You can’t bring Slay and Isaiah back, but if Rodgers has a bigger market somewhere else, Slay would be a great option alongside Kelee.
Nate Hobbs, LVR Offer: 1 year $4M gtd This one makes some sense as he has played a lot both outside (1600 snaps) and in the slot (700). Not yet 26 years old, he’s not a big risk age-wise and is a good run defender.
Popular options I’m not doing:
Trading for Greg Newsome II The Browns need cap space like they need air and can save $13M by trading Newsome, I would be surprised if he wasn’t moved this off-season. He would be cheap (day 3 pick) but he just hasn’t been great and not a guy I would spend $13M on.
Asante Samuel Jr A hugely popular name for Philly, he’s flexible but won’t be cheap, projected at 4-years, $45M. Good in coverage, but a below-average run defender and his issues tackling have been consistent. He’s just not worth the price he will command.
RB: My favorite “guilty pleasure” add
Dameon Pierce Trade: 2025 6th round for Dameon Pierce and a 2025 7th I’m greedy and want a silly RB room in 2025. Pierce is a guy I loved in the 2022 draft but he’s buried at RB3 in Houston. Still not yet 25 years old and still a very good back – a career 3.25 yards after contact and 4.0 yards per carry on a team that has had a bottom five run-blocking OL each of his years in the league.
Gainwell is fine but is a year older than Dameon and is showing signs of decline if you look – his YPA is down, yards after contact is down, explosives are down, and the percent of unsuccessful rushes is at a career high.
Pierce is a much better back – he’s bigger at 218 pounds, breaks almost twice as many tackles, is an equivalent pass-catcher and blocker, more elusive runner, and is still cheap on the final year of his rookie deal. A day 3 pick swap is a cheap price for the Eagles to bring in a guy that can take load off of Saquon.
SAF/Nickel: It won’t happen but makes some sense
Elijah Molden Offer: 1-year $4.5M This won’t happen as the Eagles safety room is crowded right now, and. not sure Elijah would want to come if he wasn’t starting. But after a torn meniscus and broken fibula at the end of 2024, he should be cheap. He’s been very good and plays safety and nickel, a position the Eagles may be thin at in 2025.
Adding it all up…
Using how Howie typically structures contracts and the target guys above, the Eagles remain in a decent cap situation while still allowing space for the big extensions they have coming.
2025
2026
2027
Current effective cap (after projected departures)
Updated effective cap space (adjusting for top 51 contracts)
$9M
$51M
$82M
NOTE: Effective cap space assumes league minimum salaries for all players needed to get to the top 51 contracts as well as the space needed to sign projected draft picks. Due to this, any player signed will only deduct from effective cap space the difference between their cap hit and this minimum (for example, Dameon Pierce will not impact current effective cap at all, Isaiah Rodgers would count at just under $2M) – this is why the above table doesn’t total by subtracting new contracts from the current effective cap.
Now, on to the draft…
5 positional thoughts on the 2025 draft from an Eagles perspective
Expect a defensive “bull market” this year.
After last year where a crazy 23 picks in the 1st round went to the offense, this year will see a reversal as the top end of the premium positions are strongest on the defensive side (DT, EDGE , CB) while QB and OT, both typically heavily drafted in the 1st, look to be really weak.
And this has implications for the Eagles – what could be best value on day 1 and day 2, what positions align to needs, and what their best options could be. Here are my thoughts on five positions of interest:
If the Eagles want DL (and they will), it’s the perfect year for it
We should already expect the annual tradition of Micah Parsons shaking his head as another amazing prospect falls to Howie and it will most likely be on the DL.
Maybe it’s freak height-weight-speed EDGE Shemar Stewart or the 3-down disruptive DT Walter Nolen or chess piece Jalon Walker… we don’t know who yet, but bet on Micah not being happy. Again.
DT may be the best position on day 1 and it’s also good on day 2
With all “take BPA” caveats aside, this is where I go. It’s a long-term need, it’s getting so expensive, and it’s likely going to be the best player available.
DT is always a bit more “what you want” than other positions, but it’s a really strong class no matter what you are looking for.
If you want a pass rushing DT:
Mason Graham can impact both passing and rushing
Walter Nolen is not as far behind at DT2 as most think – he’s this year’s Byron Murphy II
Omar Norman-Lott is projected mid day 2 and has a freakish 20% pressure rate, he holds up to doubles
Derrick Harmon and TJ Sanders both are above 20% pass rush win rates which you don’t see often at DT
With the rebirth of the NFL run game, expect teams to grab two-gapping run-stopping DTs higher than past years and there are several good options:
Kenneth Grant is only 21, handles doubles extremely well, and has a bit more pass rush upside
Alfred Collins is going to be a consistent run defender in the league
Tyleik Williams and Deone Walker are guys I’m a bit lower on but are really good day 2 options
The Eagles already have Jordan Davis but if other teams push some of these big-bodies up, it just means one of their pass rushing DTs or EDGEs drops closer to their pick.
The Eagles do NOT need to force an EDGE on day 1… day 2 may be way better value
I like the top end of this EDGE class but think there’s only a couple of guys that would go high in recent strong classes: Abdul Carter (16% pressure rate, 15% run stop rate) and James Pearce (22% pressure, 17% run stop) are the two.
The other projected day 1 EDGEs all are interesting but have concerns that raise R1 risk (and remember, EDGE has one of the higher 1st round bust rates):
Mykel Williams and Nic Scourton have concerning college production numbers (both around 10% pressure rates) that haven’t generally translated to the NFL
Jalon Walker is so impressive but rarely lined up as a pure EDGE – is he a LB or EDGE?
Shemar Stewart is a physical freak but also lacks pass rush production
Mike Green has the competition question
But on day 2, teams have great options with another 10-12 EDGEs projected. Some great options that stand out to me:
Princely Umanmielen may land in R1 with his production numbers in the SEC
Josaiah Stewart is way too overlooked (and one of my favorite guys in the entire class) because of his size but he has great film against future NFL OTs and also one of the few EDGEs that has shown he can drop into coverage
Jack Sawyer is a high floor prospect that just consistently out-produces his on-paper traits
JT Tuimoloau, while limited as a pass rusher, he’s probably more valuable with the re-birth of the NFL run game
Donovan Ezeiruaku from just across the river in NJ, another guy that is probably going to out-perform his draft slot with both 14% pressure and run stop rates
Jalen McLeod is a guy I have no idea why he isn’t on anybody’s radar, his height probably drops him but he makes more plays than anybody in this class (tackles on 7% of snaps) and, like Jalon Walker, can be moved around the defense
The type of EDGEs Fangio has wanted will be available on day 2 or later
I posted earlier on the EDGEs that Vic Fangio defenses have drafted and, while you have to be careful drawing too strong of a conclusion from 6 picks, there are four things that stood out:
Most weren’t drafted high – All but one pick was near pick 100 or later
Smaller, athletic EDGEs – The EDGEs tended smaller averaging 6’4″ and 247 pounds with sub-33″ arms, but all tested very well athletically
Above average production – All but one had above average college pressure rates, even those taken late in the draft
Ability to cover – Every one except the two 7th round picks had significant coverage snaps in college including Jalyx Hunt last draft
If you want to look for EDGEs that fit this profile this draft, look to Josaiah Stewart and Jalen McLeod (and Jalon Walker if he drops). Both Josaiah Stewart and Jalen McLeod are projected to be mid day 2 or later picks.
It’s a really bad year for the “draft Lane’s replacement” crowd
Lane has 2-3 years left likely, but every year that goes by, it makes more sense to take his replacement. But this is a really bad OL class, especially when you look for what the Eagles want in guys (athleticism, anchor, length).
So many prospects this year are likely interior guys due to length and movement limitations
Arm length matters – I posted recently that in the past 2 drafts, only 3 OTs are below a 34″ arm and also a 60th percentile (above average) player – Taliese Fuaga, Roger Rosengarten, and Darnell Wright. All good players, none you would say are franchise OTs yet.
Here are this year’s top 100 OT prospects – we obviously don’t have official measurements but at least 4 of the 14 have sub 34″ arms, another 5 just don’t have the lateral quickness the Eagles look for, and another 1-2 have concerning anchors on film (with flashbacks to Andre Dillard…)
EDP
OT Prospect
Concerns
8
Will Campbell
Length, movement
9
Kelvin Banks
Movement
18
Josh Simmons
26
Aireontae Ersery
30
Josh Conerly
Height, anchor
32
Cameron Williams
Movement
35
Jonah Savaiinaea
Movement
39
Wyatt Milum
Length
49
Armand Membou
Height
55
Emery Jones
Movement
65
Grey Zabel
Length
66
Marcus Mbow
Length
95
Charles Grant
Anchor
98
Anthony Belton
Movement
If you really want a Lane replacement, there are probably 2-3 guys you should lock in on: Josh Simmons, Aireontae Ersery, and maybe Armand Membou (probably a guard due to height, but has the arm length and movement):
Let somebody else use their draft capital on a R1 TE
I’ll piss a lot of people off here…
The Penn State-Eagles fan connection is always strong but we need to let it go this year with the “trade up for Tyler Warren” movement. And this isn’t meant as hating on Warren or Colston Loveland, I like both, but most R1 TEs look like mistakes in retrospect.
In 2021 ATL could have drafted R1 Ja’Marr Chase/Penei Sewell and R2 Freiermuth instead of R1 Kyle Pitts and R2 Richie Grant
In 2019 DET went with TJ Hockenson over Brian Burns/Montez Sweat which were needs at a premium position
In 2017 TB took OJ Howard over needs at EDGE, CB, and OT with guys like Tre’Davious White, Garrett Bolles, Ryan Ramczyk, and TJ Watt on the board
Of course there’s a bit of “hindsight is 20/20” here but most of these were also questioned at the time by those that know the positional value and hit rates on TEs. You are just much better served long-term taking a more expensive, harder to get, and higher hit rate position with premium picks.
And the bigger point is TE is one of the best position groups this year with guys like Harold Fannin (my favorite), Gunnar Helm (my pick for “best Eagles fit”), Mason Taylor, Oronde Gadsden and more on day 2.
If you need a CB, take one high
I’m greedy, I’d love another CB this year even after taking two last year. But the more I watched CBs, the lower I got on the class… there is talent and very good pros will come out of this class, but almost every guy has a “but”…
Top guys you feel (mostly) good about
The list of guys that profile as R1 CBs and don’t have some question mark is a small list this year:
Will Johnson is probably the cleanest prospect – he has the fluid movements and is a much better man CB than most give him, but I worry about his durability – he’s had no major injuries but has missed a lot of time dinged up.
Benjamin Morrison is my CB1 and if his hip clears, you take him very high – but the hip has to clear.
Trey Amos is a guy I wouldn’t be surprised if he went CB2 as he really doesn’t have a knock – he’s a really good man CB with the athletic profile you need.
Top guys with a question
There are other top-ranked CBs but they all have risks:
Jahdae Barron is a guy you love, has versatility in the secondary, but probably doesn’t have the long speed to play outside
Azareye’h Thomas I really like, think he is a better CB with the play in front of him but another guy where long speed may be a question
Shavon Revel I have here because everybody has him in R1… I don’t, he has physical traits but is 23, tore his ACL, and is a high variance prospect who gives up a TON of big plays
I worry about NFL traits on day 2
Last year I went back and looked at successful NFL corners (especially outside CBs) and it is incredibly rare to find any that are above a 4.45 40 and 1.55 10-yard split. By incredibly rare, I mean almost none, limited to Rasul Douglas, Christian Benford, and Jaylon Johnson among the top 25 CBs.
We will obviously get numbers at the Combine but day 2 of the draft this year looks to be full of guys with questionable speed that has historically not translated well.
Day 2 guys expected to be 4.5 or higher and whose long speed concerns shows up on film:
Maxwell Hairston (he may clear on speed, but it’s questionable)
Zy Alexander
Denzel Burke
Jemari Harris
If you need a CB and you miss out in R1, what do you do?
Some good nickel options with Cobee Bryant and Jacob Parrish
Darien Porter has traits but will be 24 years old and is SO green with only has 41 career targets at CB after converting from WR
Dorian Strong may be the one of the better options but he’s one of the most penalized CBs and doesn’t get his head turned consistently
It could be a really good year to trade down
There are few things worse than being hyped for the draft, waiting all night, and then the Eagles trade out of the 1st round like they did in 2018. But this could be a good year to do that again for a few reasons:
The value in this draft, especially for what the Eagles will likely be looking for, is day 2 depth
DT and EDGE are very good on day 2, TE and SAF make more sense from a positional value perspective on day 2, and if they want a development OL, the value is much better later in the draft – right now, I have two offensive linemen that would have gone in the 1st the past couple of years.
There could be QB-needy teams looking to move back into the 1st round
You never know what will happen with QBs as teams always overdraft them. But with only two R1-graded QBs and the best free agent option being Sam Darnold, a lot of teams are going to be left standing when the music stops.
Here are the teams that definitely need a QB this off-season:
Team
R1 Pick
R2 Pick
Tennessee Titans
1
35
Cleveland Browns
2
33
New York Giants
3
34
Las Vegas Raiders
6
37
New York Jets
7
42
Pittsburgh Steelers
21
52
Somebody will sign Darnold, I think (or hope) the Steelers re-sign Fields, and Russ Wilson goes somewhere but at 36 he also isn’t going to stop a team from drafting a guy.
If Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders really are the two QBs worthy of a top pick, they likely go in the top 2 or 3 picks, leaving two teams without a good free agent or top draft option.
It will get interesting as the 2nd round comes around again if one of them likes Jalen Milroe or Kyle McCord or Quinn Ewers – jumping back into the 1st ahead of others and gaining the 5th year option makes a ton of sense after (correctly) taking BPA in the 1st.
I still think defensive line, particularly DT, is the most likely pick but with the Eagles picking late in the 1st, it is one of the least predictable draft years in a while.
Late 1st or early 2nd, positional value isn’t quite as strong and it opens up positions like TE and SAF, two upcoming needs that Howie has avoided high. And, if this is a weaker class which it seems to be, don’t be surprised (or angry) if Howie trades down for more valuable future capital.
Go Birds. Two more wins.
What if Howie Roseman fixed the Steelers?
I never write about other teams but this started as a BlueSky post and thought this could be an interesting exercise. Plus, the Steelers are my second team after living there for many years and being married to a Steeler fan.
The pitchforks are out for Mike Tomlin after the Steelers lost their 5th straight but the anger is misplaced. Sure, some of what Tomlin does drives me nuts but I actually think he’s outperformed what other coaches would have done with this roster over the past several years – they’ve had receivers and a defensive line, but no QB, no OL, an average secondary for years.
The issue is the Steelers 1980s-era approach to roster building.
So I thought, what could be more fun than thinking “how would today’s most forward-thinking GM – Howie Roseman – fix the Steelers?” So let’s go.
Laying out the reality of the Steelers situation
The Steelers have been lying to themselves, thinking they have a better team than they actually did, since the end of the “Ben is actually good still” era. So, first, the Steelers need to be honest with where they:
They have no plan at QB – it won’t get fixed in one year, but they need a near-term plan with upside and to gain future assets to obtain a QB if needed
They invest upside-down and seem to have no understanding of positional value and the realities of today’s market-based league
They’ve set their draft capital on fire over the past 5 years, either drafting dumb positions high or reaching for needs or both
Most of their stars aren’t going to be here or young enough when you can actually compete
There is some issue in the locker room that needs to be dealt with
How Howie fixes the Steelers
This is not a Penguins-tanking-for-Leimeiux level rebuild. We are going to try to compete every year but we are going to make some tough decisions and stay within these guardrails:
1. Take advantage of teams in trades
Since QB is our main issue, first we need some draft capital. When Howie wasn’t sure if he had a QB, he built a war chest of picks – in 2022, they accumulated three 1st rounders as a hedge for Hurts not being the guy. Maybe you can get this in trades, maybe not, but you get a 2026 1st somehow – eat more money, throw in another pick or player, somehow.
Trade TJ Watt for a 2026 1st rounder It’s crazy to trade a franchise icon, but he’s one of the only pieces of value you have and is going to be a free agent next off-season. Now with two 2026 1sts, the Steelers have ammunition to move up next year in what looks to be a better QB class with Arch Manning, Nico Iamaleava, LaNorris Sellers, and Garrett Nussmeier all likely 1st rounders.
Trade Pat Freiermuth for a 2025 2nd rounder The other trade value you have. If somebody overpays in a TJ Hockenson-type trade, I take it. Else I will just keep him.
2. Have a plan at QB
The Steelers aren’t going to fix their QB issue this off-season without lucking into guy as the top free agent is Sam Darnold and they pick 21st, nowhere close enough to make a move up. But they need a plan with multiple avenues for success.
Re-sign QB Justin Fields (3 year / $40M with $20M gtd) Is he the long-term answer? Maybe, maybe not, but he was an elite college QB and never given a shot in the NFL with terrible lines and no weapons. He actually played well 5 of his 6 games with the Steelers and I have no idea why he was benched for old-man Russ. Sign him for 3 years with a 2-year out, see what he does next year and if he isn’t the guy, you have draft ammunition next year to move up.
Start the QB factory baby!Draft QB Kyle McCord in the 5th round For any Steelers readers, Howie is famous for claiming they wanted to be a QB factory after surprisingly drafting Jalen Hurts in 2020 after just paying Carson Wentz. And we all had to apologize as he was right. He took a QB in 2016, 2019, 2020, and 2023 and turned both broken-down Wentz and Sam Bradford into 1st round picks in trades.
3. Fix the offensive line
It’s complete malpractice the Steelers have committed with the OL – prior to Andy Weidl being hired in 2022, the Steelers hadn’t used a R1 or R2 pick on OL since 2012 when they took a guard (!?) in the 1st and swung-and-missed on a tackle in the 2nd. Their “best” offensive linemen has been Isaac Seumalo who is good, but a backup on a good team.
Draft R1-22 OT Josh Simmons, Ohio St Yes, I know they just drafted Broderick Jones and Troy Fautanu in back-to-back years, but Jones has been bad and I 100% think Fautanu is a guard in the NFL, not a tackle (see here on why). Move Fautanu to OG where he’ll be better and let Simmons and Jones battle it out for RT. It’s a bad OL year with a lot of guys that won’t stick at OT, but Simmons is the one guy I think could become a franchise guy.
Sign LT Cam Robinson 3 years, $60M ($28M gtd) We are going from having no tackles to too many, but I don’t care what draft capital you used on Broderick Jones, he’s been so bad after 2 seasons, you have to have another plan there. And of course, we will push a lot of this contract out as Howie does.
Here’s their new 2025 OL depth chart with changes in bold and their 2024 grades in parentheses:
LT
LG
OC
RG
RT
Cam Robinson (65) Calvin Anderson (69)
Isaac Seumalo (66) Spencer Anderson (57)
Zack Frazier (78) Ryan McCollum (50)
Troy Fautanu (IR) Mason McCormick (58)
Josh Simmons (R) Broderick Jones (58)
4. Surround your QB with talent
The single superpower the Steelers have is picking WRs (and probably DL). They aren’t in terrible shape here but I also think their WR group isn’t as good as most Steelers fans think with only one real weapon.
Draft R2-54 WR Matthew Golden, Texas George Pickens is great but he needs help and the Steelers need a separator with speed.
Sign WR Chris Godwin for 3 year, $70M ($40M gtd) He has the ankle dislocation but is probably the best overall option besides Tee Higgins. He’s versatile, consistent, a great locker room guy, not over 30, and was very good prior to his injury. And, we don’t care if he is ready for the start of the season.
5. Embrace positional value
No more 1st round RBs or LBs or SAFs. Stop spending stupid money on punters and over-priced guards. Fill in the roster with cheap 1-year deals. Extend your key guys early and use the cap to an advantage.
Release / trade the roster mistakes Maybe you can get some day 3 picks here, but we are un-doing the dumb roster decisions by getting rid of Minkah and Patrick Queen. These two moves free up $21M of cap space.
Say goodbye to a bunch of guys The Steelers have 24 free agents this year and a lot of the big names we let go – Russ, Najee Harris, Dan Moore, Cam Sutton, and Donte Jackson all go. There’s an issue in the locker room, likely the secondary, and if I missed who that it, add them to the list.
Extend key guys ahead of free agency Unfortunately, the recent draft picks that are coming up on the end of their rookie deals are either gone or questionable on if you keep them. But there are a couple:
This off-season, you bring back Jaylen Warren and James Daniels if you can do so affordably
George Pickens hits free agency in 2026, extend him this off-season
Joey Porter Jr., Keeanu Benton, Nick Herbig, and Darnell Washington all are eligible for extensions after 2025 and plan for those
2025 mock draft We already made a couple of picks above, but I’ll put the entire draft here including the 2nd rounder we picked up in the Freiermuth trade
All premium positions through the first 4 picks and 3 rounds… picking up a TE in this deep class in the 4th… “QB factory” in the 5th… another interior OL in the 6th when it’s one of the better positions to hit on late… and a RB late.
R1 – OT Josh Simmons, Ohio St
R2 – WR Matthew Golden, Texas
R2 – EDGE Bradyn Swinson, LSU
R3 – CB Azareye’h Thomas, Florida St
R4 – TE Oronde Gadsden, Syracuse
R5 – QB Kyle McCord, Syracuse
R6 – OG Miles Frazier, LSU
R7 – RB Raheim Sanders, Cincinnati
Are they fixed? No. But the Steelers now have around $70M of free cap space in 2025 and $160M in 2026… a luxury Howie never has in Philly. There’s a ton more the Steelers can do in free agency.
A look at how Howie drafts ahead of needs and what it means for the 2025 draft
I’ve talked about this several times in the past – consensus mock drafts for the Eagles are wrong so often because we don’t think like Howie. While there’s no cheat code to predicting Howie’s draft picks, he approaches the draft with the following:
Positional value matters which means invest in positions that are expensive to get elsewhere
Invest ahead of needs that are 1-2 years out – immediate needs are filled through trades and free agency
Leave yourself in a position where you don’t HAVE to draft a specific position or player
So when we mock non-premium positions like Bijan Robinson in 2023 or Devin Lloyd in 2022 or yell for Kyle Hamilton over Jordan Davis, we’re missing Howie’s thinking, like it or not.
Looking back at past drafts
2017 – Mocks go after RBs, Howie takes a pass rusher
As the Eagles end 2016 with a mess at RB, releasing Ryan Mathews and left with Sproles and Wendell Smallwood, the top mocked picks for the Eagles were RBs Dalvin Cook and Christian McCaffrey.
They instead take Derek Barnett and don’t figure out RB until after the draft with LeGarrette Blount signing in May and Jay Ajayi joining via an in-season trade.
Pass rusher made a ton of sense – they had lost starting Connor Barwin after the 2016 season and their projected 2017 starters were only signed through the 2017 season (Vinny Curry on the final year of his deal and newly signed Chris Long on a 1-year).
The Eagles are known to have had their eyes on CB Marshon Lattimore who went 3 picks ahead of them and CB also made a ton of sense – an unsettled position after losing both 2016 starters, they double-up on day 2 with Sidney Jones and Rasul Douglas.
2018 – Mocks again go after RBs, Howie builds back draft capital
The Eagles makeshift 2017 RB room is unsettled again as they lose LeGarrette Blount in free agency and Jay Ajayi is only signed through the 2018 season. We again look at running backs with Derrius Guice and Sony Michel being the most frequently mocked players.
The Eagles decide to trade out of the 1st round to regain draft capital they depleted in the trade-up for Carson Wentz.
2019 – Again a RB and now CBs show up in the mocks, Howie goes trenches
For the 3rd year in a row, the top mocked player is a RB with Josh Jacobs leading the way as Jay Ajayi tore his ACL during the 2018 season and the running back situation is again unsettled. Also showing up high in mocks are CBs DeAndre Baker and Byron Murphy.
But Howie goes trenches, trading up for Andre Dillard as we enter the perpetual “how much longer is Jason Peters going to play?”
Howie does finally go RB with Miles Sanders in the 2nd, using the pick from the 2018 trade down. He also takes WR JJAW as Agholor is expected to depart the following year and both 29-year old Alshon Jeffery and 33-year old DeSean Jackson miss significant time in 2018 and are nearing the end.
2020 – The year we all get it right and Howie gets it wrong
This is the one year where Howie put himself in a corner with absolutely needing to draft a position after missing on JJAW and hanging on too long to old guys DeSean and Alshon.
And it’s the year where fans wants and Howie’s needs aligned – the top three mocked players run the table with WRs Justin Jefferson, Henry Ruggs, and Tee Higgins. Howie famously whiffed on this pick with Jalen Reagor in a disastrous draft with the lone bright spot of bringing up Hurts.
2021 – A do-over draft and investing in the trenches
Mocks were all over the place, but generally targeting one of the top CBs Jaycee Horn or Patrick Surtain which was absolutely a current and emerging need. We also had a ton of interest in Kyle Pitts and one of the several good receivers coming out.
The interest in one of the CBs is allegedly feigned to hide Howie’s real target, DeVonta Smith. He needed to go back to the draft and get another WR after Reagor misses and wanting to see what they have with Hurts.
You see so much “if we would have taken Justin Jefferson we never would have taken DeVonta” and that’s probably true. And as much as I love DeVonta, it’s insane to think missing on Jefferson was a good thing.
On day 2, Howie goes OC and DT as they start preparing for a post-Kelce world and DT becomes an emerging need with Malik Jackson leaving and Fletch now 31 years old.
2022 – The trenches draft
Fan mocks miss badly with LBs Devin Lloyd and Nakobe Dean being the most popular picks. And LB was a need but Howie isn’t going to spend a high pick on LB where a top 5 free agent costs $5M a year over DT which costs $15M a year.
Jordan Davis is one of the least surprising picks in recent history as Howie did a poor job hiding interest in him. Looking ahead, DT was the biggest need for two reasons: the Eagles were planning to move on from Hargrave and Fletch was nearing the end and the scheme switch with Gannon’s arrival demanded a two-gapping DT.
On day 2, Howie again goes OC which surprised many after taking Landon Dickerson the year before, but OL still needed additional investment with Brooks done and Seumalo likely leaving the next year.
2023 – The trenches draft, the sequel
With two 1st round picks, mocks are dominated by CBs and RBs with CBs Devon Witherspoon and Christian Gonzalez and RBs Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs far and away being the top mocked players.
But again, trenches dominate the draft which made all the sense in the world when you look ahead and the entire DL was at risk – Hargrave was not re-signed, Barnett was going to be let go the following year, and both Fletch and BG were nearing retirement.
Howie doubles up as Jalen Carter unexpectedly falls to their first pick and Nolan Smith, who they may have taken with their first pick, falls to their second pick.
2024 – Finally ending the “Howie won’t draft CBs in the 1st” trope
I wrote before the draft last year that the “Howie won’t draft a CB in the 1st round” was wrong – he clearly valued the position and would have taken Marshon Lattimore in 2017, but the CB drafts didn’t play out for him.
Last year cornerback was screaming as the area that needed investment if you looked out 1-2 years. And fans saw it too, getting it right by mocking CBs heavily to the Eagles.
EDGE was also a need but they signed Bryce Huff in free agency and then used a 3rd rounder on Jalyx Hunt. If CBs hadn’t dropped last year, Howie may have gone EDGE as he showed interest in Chop Robinson and Latu.
Ranking the 2025 draft priorities
As good of shape that the roster is in right now, there are several positions that pop up as upcoming needs when you look out 1-2 years. These are the key players that will either leave (and need to be replaced) or be extended (making that position more expensive):
If you had to bet, bet on DL in the 1st
1a. Defensive Tackle Almost everybody is expecting EDGE which makes sense (except for a few of the “draft Lane” replacement holdouts – more on that in a minute). But you have to look at several things:
Yes the Eagles are losing Josh Sweat and questions remain on Bryce Huff, but DT is actually closer to needing investment – they could lose 2-3 DTs over the next few years, including Milt this off-season
There’s no “good news” if they somehow keep these DTs because it means they did it at around $22-24M a year (the going price for Milt and Davis level DTs)
You just need more DTs than EDGEs – the Eagles usually roster an extra DT and there are more snaps at DT
DT looks to be a really strong class this year and will likely be better value late in the 1st with the top of the EDGE class already gone (and EDGE looks like its value this year is its depth, not top-end talent).
1b. EDGE Despite picks each of the last two years, right now they are losing guys as fast as they are adding them with Sweat no doubt leaving this year, BG probably retiring, and Bryce Huff only signed through 2026 (he could be moved on from after 2025 and how long he is here depends on his play, but given he’s only the 17th highest paid EDGE, expect him to be here).
Count on an EDGE int he draft, I just think the value is going to be much better on day 2 this year unless the Eagles want to move up.
It’s not as crazy as it sounds…
2. Cornerback Would Howie take a CB over a DL they loved? No, not this year. But picking late in the 1st, a CB could be the best player available if DL gets drafted heavily. And unless you are convinced Ringo or Ricks are a starter, the Eagles still very much need another outside CB with Slay likely gone and Rodgers possibly pricing out of Philly in free agency.
The board would have to fall just right (or wrong)
3. Offensive Tackle The Eagles will know Lane’s timing way better than we will, but if he is leaning towards being done in 2 years, while still not ideal to draft this early it now puts OT in play more than last year. The issue is this OT class is undeniably bad with most of the R1 tackles being guard prospects and few having the length and movement the Eagles will want. There are two that are R1 OTs in my opinion (Kelvin Banks and Josh Simmons) and both will likely go early.
If DL is taken early, the couple of R1 CBs are gone, and somehow Josh Simmons drops, it wouldn’t totally surprise me to see Howie take him and let him develop, especially since the Eagles R1 pick this year will be low.
Day 2 and 3 draft priorities
Tight End Goedert will most likely leave after next season, Calcaterra hits free agency but chances are he can be brought back fairly cheaply. But I put this one as a higher chance just because of how good this TE class is – there should be several guys on day 2 that would be value.
Safety Reed Blankenship hits free agency after next season and most overlook that he could get paid more than Philly is willing or able to pay him. And CJGJ is signed through 2026 but could be moved on from after next season. They have Sydney Brown but he has trouble staying on the field. It’s a need but it’s a lean safety class where there’s going to be a lot of competition for handful of top-100 guys.
Interior Offensive Line They could use depth at OG but again, it’s really not a good OL class. And as much as Howie is known for “the trenches”, don’t confuse tackle with interior guys where positional value doesn’t warrant high picks – besides the fireman, he has not used a R1 pick on an interior guy and open market prices don’t justify it. I could see a Tate Ratledge or Miles Frazier-type pick mid-draft.
Running Back This is a sleeper pick and it comes down to two things: do they re-sign Kenny Gainwell and does the quality of this RB class drop somebody in their lap they like? Saquon is only really committed to through next season and what if a guy like Devin Neal or Treyveon Henderson is available in R3 or later? It takes some load off Saquon next year and gives you a back for a couple of years once Saquon is likely done here.
Wide Receiver The Eagles need a WR3 and as much as I would justify a top WR pick, it won’t happen. They just used a 3rd round pick in a trade for Jahan Dotson and two day 3 picks on Johnny Wilson and Ainias Smith – Howie likely continues to take value shots at WR for the next year or two.
The Eagles 2025 draft: My draft strategy and targets for day 1 and 2
Last year I did a full off-season mock and prioritized turning over the secondary, investing into the DL, getting stability at LB, and adding an offensive weapon. If I had to set an off-season strategy for this year, it would be the following in priority order:
Prioritize drafting the defensive line, both DT and EDGE, as it is the position group about to get expensive
Re-sign Zack Baun to give long-term LB stability
Get a CB2 for the post-Slay era, either high in the draft or in free agency
Take advantage of the depth in this draft class – trading down if possible, looking for DL, TE, SAF later in the draft
Given the strength of the roster, take advantage if players at a non-urgent position drop to them (OT, WR)
The draft will be key for several of these and below are my targets across the first two days.
Ranking the Eagles options on day 1
Below is my R1 board for the Eagles with 10 1st round targets that fit my priorities above.
I’ve used players current Expected Draft Pick (EDP) locations. If you are wondering where guys like Abdul Carter (EDP 5) or James Pearce (EDP 14) are, I’ve left off guys that are expected to go way above our pick.
Trade-up
At pick
Trade down
DT
Walter Nolen (25-32)
Derrick Harmon (27-29)
TJ Sanders (34-50)
EDGE
Princely Umanmielen (32-44)
Shemar Stewart (25-26)
CB
Benjamin Morrison (12-24)*
Jahdae Barron (35-40)
WR
Emeka Egbuka (22-25) Isaiah Bond (28-31)
OL
Josh Simmons (20-26)*
* Injury flags
DT: The position I think may be the best value
Yes, I know everybody wants an EDGE but DT is my top R1 target for several reasons:
DT is one of the strongest position group in 2025 – I have 5 R1 DTs and most boards will agree that DT is a strong group this year
DT is likely going to be great value when the Eagles pick – Only 2 DTs are expected to be picked by the Eagles pick (Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant) and historically 3-4 total are taken in R1
DT is as big of a long-term need as EDGE is – Philly is highly unlikely to be able to keep Milt and Jordan Davis with Carter’s extension
DT has gotten very expensive in the NFL – DT is now a full-fledged premium position as the average top 10 contract has increased 69% over the past 5 years and now equals EDGE.
Ole Miss’s DT Walter Nolen may be my top target at any position in this draft. He aligns from NT to out over tackle, is doubled at one of the highest rates in this class (64% vs. LSU, 72% vs UGA) and still produces. He could be the best run defender in this class. He flashes a ton of power but also has an initial quick side-step to hit a gap that you see Jalen Carter use (not as good as Jalen’s though). Mason Graham is DT1 but the gap between him and Nolen isn’t that big.
Derrick Harmon provides probably the best interior pass-rushing ability in this class and at 6’3″ 339lbs but probably playing quite a bit lighter this year, he is explosive and with Nolen handles double teams as well as anybody in this class.
And last, TJ Sanders who I have higher than consensus right now. He’s going to test really well at 6’4″ and 290lbs, at his best when going against single blocks where he makes a ton of plays.
EDGE: Next, the position everybody wants
Pass rusher is the overwhelming consensus top pick by every board, media outlet, and fan mock and it’s obviously a premium position, a need, and a position Howie values. I just don’t think this is a great EDGE class which is why I have it below DT.
This EDGE class’s value is depth more than top-end talent – Many disagree with me, but I think the top of this EDGE class is down from recent years (Carter and Pearce are the only two near recent top guys), but makes up for it in top-100 depth
EDGE is likely going to be depleted before the Eagles pick – Even last year where defensive players dropped, 4 EDGEs were taken before the Eagles expected pick and usually it is 5-6 EDGEs taken
Princely Umanmielen is an always-on pass rusher that is constantly disruptive (17% pressure rate run stop rates). I’m not sure what to make of his incident going after a fan which would need to be cleared.
And Shemar Stewart is interesting… his college production was lacking (10% pressure rate) but when you watch him, I’m not sure I have seen somebody get so close on so many plays. He’s a higher variance pick and at 6’6″ and 290lbs and my love for giant EDGEs, I know I may be overvaluing him.
You can’t blindly look at stats and a guy like Shemar is an example of that, but you also can’t ignore college production. I wrote earlier here on how pressure rates translate to the NFL and it’s buyer-beware on guys that didn’t produce in college – top guys in this class like Mykel Williams (9% college pressure rate) and Nic Scourton (11% pressure rate and a tweener) are guys I just don’t see it with. Jalon Walker I like but think he’s an off-ball LB primarily.
CB: An underrated position to take
Yes, I know we just double-dipped at corner but it isn’t crazy to take another CB:
We still need another outside CB – With Slay nearing the end, you may be good with Kelee Ringo or Eli Ricks but neither has proven they are starters yet.
CB could be value when they pick – The top end of this class may not match recent years but it’s a deep – and imperfect – CB class where guys could drop as several have medical questions
Benjamin Morrison has better film vs. Marvin Harrison Jr. than any other CB I have watched. He’s also held Puka, Jordan Addison, Zay Flowers, and Josh Downs and to an average of 35 yards per game. Listening to him, he will remind you of Quinyon. He did have season-ending hip surgery but if that clears and he’s there, you draft him and are set at corner with Quinyon, Coop, and BMo for years.
And last, Jahdae Barron can play anywhere in the secondary but probably not a full-time outside guy in the NFL. You want him with the play in front of him where he shows great anticipation and recognition where he’s one of the smartest corners in this class.
WR: My “it won’t happen but should” pick
It’s becoming an annual tradition for me to say why taking another top WR, while maybe a luxury, actually makes sense:
Two good WRs is the standard, not special, for the top teams – The Lions, Vikings, and Bills all have multiple good WRs, the Chiefs and Ravens are investing to have multiple
This offense struggles if AJ or DeVonta are out – We see it each year when one of them is down
The Eagles may need another WR in 2 years – AJ Brown will be 30 after the 2026 season and his contract can be moved on from then – it’s not crazy to have another WR that develops
No, this won’t happen. But, I am putting it here because WR could be BPA when the Eagles pick.
Simulators have Ohio State’s Emeka Egbuka going right near the expected Eagles pick and if he’s there, you’re getting the most complete receiver in this class, a plus route runner with 4.4 speed, probably the best WR against man coverage in this class, and a guy with incredible work ethic.
And if there’s one thing I’d love to see added to this offense, it’s silly speed. That’s Isaiah Bond – he’s not as fast as Xavier Worthy last year but close. His stats are so-so but that’s the Quinn Ewers effect. he’d open up this offense and be an investment in the next Eagles WR.
OT: For the “draft Lane successor” crowd
If you have followed me, you know I thought the “draft an OT” last year was effectively setting draft capital on fire as Lane has said he plans to play through 2026. But each year that goes by, taking an OT makes more sense. It would still be my lowest priority R1 position, but it could make sense:
This is a really bad OT class – Last year’s OT class looked great compared to this year where almost every guy has serious questions on staying at OT in the NFL
If unexpected value falls it could be an opportunistic pick – While not my preferred position, it’s not crazy that the other guys I have listed above are all gone by the Eagles pick
There’s only two guys I would even consider taking – Longhorn Kelvin Banks (who is projected top 10) and Ohio State’s Josh Simmons. If you want the Eagles to take an OT they better have length, anchor, and movement skills. And if they need work on technique, well they are coming to the right place. And that’s Josh Simmons.
The other top OTs all have disqualifying issues to me on day 1 – Will Campbell doesn’t have the length to stay at OT… Aireonte Ersery is interesting but not a good enough pass blocker… Cameron Williams doesn’t have the speed the Eagles use at OT… Wyatt Milum I like but he’s an interior guy… Josh Conerly reminds me of Andre Dillard with his anchor.
It’s still not my preference as he sits for two years, but you can see the board falling in such a way that Simmons could be the best value.
Trade down: Probably best value given this draft
Trade downs are tough to predict as it requires another team wanting to move up, but this year is a great year to drop down:
This is a weaker draft class – Most see this as a down draft with typical R1 positions like QB and OT being weak and other positions like WR and EDGE being deep but not as top-heavy
The day 2 value aligns well with what the Eagles need – EDGE, DT, SAF, and TE are all positions that should interest the Eagles and they look to be very good day 2 position groups
The Eagles roster doesn’t have many near-term needs – You never draft based on immediate needs, but the Eagles roster is in good shape with a lot of young talent, giving them more space to take advantage of other teams
What could a trade down look like? They don’t happen a ton from late in the 1st where the Eagles are likely picking, but here are two comps:
2022 Titans trade down 9 spots from R1-26 for a big move up on day 2: After trading away AJ Brown (thank you very much), the Titans send R1-26 and R3-101 to the Jets for R2-35, R3-69, and R5-163.
2018 Eagles trade out of R1-32 for a future day 2 pick: It would be interesting if we saw a repeat of 2018 when the Eagles traded R1-32 and R4-132 to the Ravens and got back R2-52, R4-125, and a 2019 2nd rounder.
If your 1st round guys are gone and there’s an opportunity to pick up an extra day 2 pick this year or next, I’d seriously look at it – the value in this draft is in its depth.
How I’m thinking about day 2 of the draft
EDGE has really good options on day 2 if you miss on day 1 and positions like SAF and TE that should interest the Eagles become good positions to take.
R2
R3
EDGE
LT Overton Kyle Kennard
Josaiah Stewart Jared Ivey
DT
Omar Norman-Lott
Alfred Collins
SAF
Xavier Watts
Andrew Mukuba
TE
Harold Fannin
Mason Taylor Gunnar Helm
CB
Trey Amos
Maxwell Hairston Domani Jackson
OL
Tate Ratledge
Miles Frazier
EDGE: Honestly, I like day 2 options more than day 1
If 3-4 EDGEs go ahead of the Eagles pick in R1, you are probably reaching for one where the Eagles will pick and ignoring better value at another position. But if Howie doesn’t get an EDGE on day 1, pass-rush-hungry Eagles fans shouldn’t go to bed angry as day 2 looks to be really good with 10-12 EDGEs projected to be taken.
Here are my favorite targets:
Player
EDP
Notes
LT Overton, Alabama
50-55
Bigger end that moves well with versatility across the line
Kyle Kennard, South Carolina
55-65
Explosive pass rusher, he’ll remind you of Jalyx Hunt
Josaiah Stewart, Michigan
75-85
Only 21 years old, a Nolan-type defender with a silly 37% true pass set win rate – he is constantly disruptive and a leader on the team
Jared Ivey, Ole Miss
80-100
A bigger DE at 6’6″ 285 lbs who wins with power and sets the edge
Of the above, Josaiah Stewart is my favorite day 2 guy and is only knocked due to his size. I’d take him in the 2nd round or Jared Ivey in the 3rd and be really happy with the pick.
DT: Strong on day 1, good again on day 2
The best reason I can find not to take a DT on day 1 is there are really good options on day 2 with another 6-7 projected on day 2. But I’d specifically look at these two:
Player
EDP
Notes
Omar Norman-Lott, Tennessee
55-65
Can 2-gap and never stops pushing the pocket – reminds me of Keeanu Benton but I like Omar even more
Alfred Collins, Texas
65-90
6’5″ and 320lbs, the best run-stopper in this class and great insurance if you don’t extend Jordan Davis
SAF: Have to be aggressive if you want one
Safety is lean this year with Malaki Starks projected in the 1st round and then only 3 safeties on day 2 after Kamari Ramsey announced he is returning next year.
It’s another underrated need for the Eagles – CJGJ is likely only here in 2025, Sydney Brown cannot stay on the field, and then there’s Reed Blankenship who could get paid after next season, which too many ignore. Here’s who I would want:
Player
EDP
Notes
Xavier Watts, Notre Dame
70-80
Plays a lot of nickel, one of best in man coverage, makes a ton of plays coming in from deep, team captain
Andrew Mukuba, Texas
85-140
At 6’0″ and 190lbs his size will hurt him but he gives up nothing after the catch and gets his hands on the ball
I’d love Xavier Watts as he’s exactly the type of guy the Eagles would love, but expect him to go higher than expected as a lot of teams will be interested in him.
Mukuba gets knocked for being small but watch his film and you see it doesn’t hold him back – and he’s the same size as very good NFLers Brandon Jones, Jordan Love, Elijah Molden, and Budda Baker.
TE: Another really strong position group this year
With five TEs projected in the top 100 picks, it’s a good year to want a TE. Many have their sights set on Colston Loveland and Tyler Warren as Goedert replacements, but both are projected in R1. We aren’t taking a TE high and we shouldn’t.
There’s much better value on day 2 and I’d absolutely take Gunnar Helm in the 3rd.
Player
EDP
Notes
Harold Fannin, Bowling Green
45-55
He’s put up gaudy numbers with a 3.7 YRR, his skillset translates
Mason Taylor, LSU
85-100
Primarily a pass-catcher but he’s impressive with the ball
Gunnar Helm, Texas
90-100
A complete TE – the best blocking TE, catches everything, good route running, forces a lot of missed tackles
CB: A few options on day 2
If you really wanted a good chance of getting your CB2 post-Slay, you do everything you can to take Morrison in the 1st. But there are some day 2 options I’d be comfortable taking.
Player
EDP
Notes
Trey Amos, Ole Miss
35-55
Would take a trade up in R2, so good in press and sticky in coverage, 18% PBU rate and gives up little YAC
Maxwell Hairston, Kentucky
50-65
Playmaker especially with the play in front of him which is where you want him – reminds me of Rasul Douglas
Domani Jackson, Alabama
Day 3
Good size, big jump up in 2024, good speed, plus tackler
OL: I’d probably wait for day 3
The Eagles always look for OL and they do need to keep the depth stocked as they probably lose Becton and Fred Johnson and Jack Driscoll are both free agents. But this really isn’t an exciting OL class.
If you’re mocking OL to the Eagles, they better be athletic, preferably big, and chances are they will come from a big school. The couple of guys I’d be interested in are the following:
Player
EDP
Notes
Tate Ratledge, UGA
70-90
Has the size (6’6″ 325) and movement then Eagles would want
Miles Frazier, LSU
Day 3
Gives up some in movement but makes up for it in consistency and flexibility, starting every spot over his career
A look ahead at the Eagles cap, looming decisions, and what it could mean for the draft
Last year I did a full off-season mock, taking a look at the Eagles salary cap situation, upcoming roster decisions, and what they likely would do in free agency and the draft and it was one of the most enjoyable things I have written. So this year, even though I’ve backed away from writing, I wanted to take another look here.
Salary cap outlook 2025-27
While the Eagles look to have decent free cap space, they are 19th in the league next year and then drop to the bottom of the league by 2027.
2025
2026
2027
Projected free cap space
$30.3M
$73.1M
$92.3M
# players under contract
46
35
27
League rank
19th
27th
32nd
Includes: this offseason BG retires, Sweat and Becton leave, and Braberry is released. Also, Slay is released (which is something I’m not sure happens and wonder if they give him a new 1-year deal). In 2026 Goedert leaves and in 2027 Lane retires.
They 2026-27 numbers may sound like a lot, but the Eagles are near the bottom of the league and you have to account for a full 51-man roster for cap purposes which will eat into this.
None of this should be surprising as Howie’s cap management is well known – sign his guys early, push a lot of the contract cost into the future, and lead the league in both future committed dollars and dead cap.
Roster construction: the good…
But they feel great about the roster and they should – it’s constructed really well right now:
Young, cheap guys at key positions: They have the 5th youngest roster in the league with youth at key spots like Quinyon, DeJean, Jalen Carter, Jordan Davis, Milton Williams, Nolan Smith, Cam Jurgens, and Nakobe
Long-term pieces signed below market: Hurts, DeVonta, Mailata are all massive deals at the most expensive positions
Expensive guys that are producing: AJ Brown, Dallas Goedert, Slay, CJGJ, Saquon have big deals but are all still very good
…the (very little) bad…
The only way Howie gets into trouble with his cap approach is with bad deals, and even then, he would need multiple bad deals at the same time to create enough of a salary cap hole.
Right now, it’s hard to pick out many bad deals.
James Bradberry‘s was absolutely a bad deal but damage is limited to the 2024 season – with a post 6/1 designation this off-season, it’s a $3M dead cap hit and actually frees up $4.7M of 2025 cap space.
Many will list Bryce Huff‘s deal as a mistake but it isn’t as bad from a cap perspective – Philly can move on from it after next season and he’s only the 17th highest paid EDGE right now, right with Harold Landry (a fair comp) and $7M/year under Montez Sweat’s recent deal (Huff is better)
Every team signs bad deals and Howie isn’t immune here but as long as players are contributing and any bad deals are limited, Howie’s aggressiveness pushing cap out helps the roster.
… and a looming “issue”
Looming “reality” is probably a better way to put it than “issue”.
There’s no “bad” to having a young, cost-controlled roster where you have your QB, multiple offensive weapons, and talent across the defense. But one thing to look at is how many position groups and players the Eagles are projected to be near the top of the league in spending on.
Below shows where the Eagles rank in AAV committed by position group since 2019. Couple of things:
They’ve (unsurprisingly) always spent on OL
DL was also heavily spent on until just last year given recent draft investments
QB, RB, WR, and the secondary are also now high cost areas (but CB will come down)
The 2025-27 numbers will obviously change, but Philly has more committed future dollars than any other team. And when the names committed to are Hurts, Mailata, DeVonta, AJ, Landon, and Lane, you can see how the story won’t change much – they may (will) restructure, but that doesn’t reduce the investment.
Teams can’t spend everywhere and there will be some difficult decisions that go along with these big investments. Every time Howie has spent in many areas, difficult decisions followed:
In 2022, Philly added Haason Reddick and AJ Brown and were now spending high at four positions groups (WR, OL, DL, and CB/SAF) and had to let TJ Edwards and Miles Sanders walk
In 2023, when the Eagles extended Hurts and now had money committed to QB, WR, OL, and CB/SAF they let Javon Hargrave walk, dropping their DL spend from 1st in the league to 12th
And of course last year with money committed to QB, WR, OL, and now RB with the Saquon signing, the Eagles got rid of Reddick, dropping their DL spend from 12th in the league to 29th
The fanbase generally loses their collective mind when Howie avoids the big free agents and guys like Reddick and Hargrave are let go, but it’s just a reality of roster spending.
Sweat will leave this year, but even with that move, the DL is going to get expensive meaning something will need to break again.
Planning ahead for key DL extensions
One thing I hate more than almost anything is the “cap isn’t real” trope. You can push money out, but the cap is very, very real and Howie is probably the best in the league at planning the cap out several years in advance.
On the DL, Milton Williams hits this off-season, Jordan Davis in 2026, and both Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith in 2027 (including their 5th year options).
What Howie’s extensions generally look like
If you look at Howie’s contract extensions, it’s interesting to look at where Howie has the cap hit land. The last two rookie extensions were DeVonta Smtih (including a 5th year option) and Landon Dickerson and the cap hits were spread out almost exactly the same:
Player
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
Dickerson 4yr / $84M
$6.5M
$10.2M
$14.0M
$18.0M
$35.0M (void)
DeVonta 4 yr / $91M(includes 5th yr option)
$7.5M
$10.7M
$14.8M
$20.0M
$35.8M (void)
% of cap hit
8%
12%
16-17%
21-22%
39-42%
We know EDGE is expensive but it probably shocks many to recognize that DT prices have caught up to EDGE. Here are the average top-10 contracts for DT and EDGE over the past 5 years:
2020
2024
% growth
EDGE
$17.6M
$22.2M
+26%
DT
$13.1M
$22.1M
+69%
Let’s look at what these DL extensions could cost and look like from a cap perspective using Howie’s general contract structure as a guide.
Proj Extension
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Milton Williams
3yr / $65M
$5.2M
$7.8M
$11.1M
$14.3M (dead cap)
Jordan Davis
3yr / $60M
$16.0M (5th yr option)
$4.8M
$7.2M
$10.2M
Jalen Carter
3yr / $110M
$11.0M (5th yr option)
$16.6M
$23.5M
Nolan Smith
3yr / $85M
$8.2M (5th yr option)
$12.4M
$17.5M
$8.2M
$23.8M
$35.1M
$50.4M
$51.2M
You can see how 2027-28 start to become an issue if you try to sign everybody as Jalen’s new deal overlaps with Milt’s and Davis’ extensions.
Signing everybody on the DL adds around $35M in 2027 and around $50M in 2027-28. Above, the Eagles are projected to have $73M free in 2026 and $92M in 2027 but before you get too excited, they still need to account for 16 added players in 2026 and 24 in 2027 to get to the 51 top players that count towards the cap.
So the Eagles have two options:
Sign all their guys, love their current core, and fill in the rest of the roster with cheaper guys
Make a tough decision or two and start investing for the cap
Who gets extended / re-signed?
No-brainers: Jalen Carter, Nolan Smith Even though Jalen Carter will set the market at DT, there’s no way Howie doesn’t extend him in 2026 before he hits the last year of his rookie deal (if you think my $37M AAV is crazy, Chris Jones is 30 years old and just signed at almost $32M a year). Nolan Smith will be extended early as well.
Where it gets interesting: Milton Williams, Jordan Davis Before the Eagles get to Carter and Nolan, they are going to have to make decisions on both Milt and Jordan Davis. It sounds crazy to question either, but in Milt’s case it’s very unlike Howie to not extend his guys before the end of the deal. And for Davis, as important as he is to this scheme, you have to ask if you can replace that skillset cheaper.
Milt is probably going need to be limited to a 2-year commitment which is below market for DTs, as they have all been 4 years recently. And Milt may take a 2-year as it lets him get paid again soon.
I am definitely in the “Jordan Davis is under-appreciated” camp and am on record that I would try to get a deal with Milt done, but it is going to be hard to keep both.
Regardless, the Eagles probably need to invest again to bring the cost of the DL down.
What this could mean for the draft
Even with six DL picks over the past three drafts including three 1st rounders and a 3rd rounder, I’d bank on yet another pick this year. I just don’t know if it’s going to be DT or EDGE.
I’ve never seen as much consensus on which position the Eagles should take in the draft as I have this year – every mock draft aggregator, (almost) every fan, every media outlet is locked into EDGE given Sweat’s likely departure and Huff disappointing in his first year.
The top mocked players right now are any and every EDGE – Landon Jackson, J.T. Tuimoloau, Jalon Walker, James Pearce, Shemar Stewart, LT Overton, Mykel Williams all lead mocks – along with TE Tyler Warren, because it’s an annual tradition to mock a non-premium position that Howie will not draft.
And I wouldn’t be surprised or upset if it was EDGE. Pass rusher is always a good pick – it’s a position that is really, really hard to get anywhere but the draft. But DT makes a lot more sense than most fans give it right now:
DT is projected to be one of the strongest position groups this draft
DT could be the best value when they pick late in the 1st with 5-6 EDGEs projected to be taken vs. only 2-3 DTs
Howie drafts 1-2 years out, not for immediate needs which elevates DT every bit as high as EDGE
The board could look like this when the Eagles are on the clock – who do you take?
EDGE
DT
Off the board
Abdul Carter James Pearce Nic Scourton Jalon Walker Mykel Williams Shemar Stewart
Mason Graham Kenneth Grant
Best available
Landon Jackson Mike Green J.T. Tuimoloau
Walter Nolen Derrick Harmon Deone Walker
My next post will be my 1st round targets which I have been building out – I’ll let you know who I am targeting there.
The Eagles coming 2025 free agency decisions and the salary cap
The Eagles should be near $35M of free cap space in 2025, assuming $9M is rolled over from 2024 and the cap increases to around $272M. And looking ahead to 2026 when Slay, Sweat, BG, and Goedert are all gone, the Eagles cap space should be around $68M.
These are good amounts and put them around middle of the league in cap space. But the Eagles have several decisions to make on free agents this off-season and will not be able to keep everybody.
Key 2025 free agents and contract comps
Below are the key Eagles free agents they will have this off-season. Contract comps are free agency signings and extensions over the past 1-2 years for similar age and performance players.
Free Agent
Contract Comps
Exp AAV
EDGE Josh Sweat
MIN Jonathan Greenard 4yr / $76M ($38M gtd) WAS Dorance Armstrong 3yr / $33M ($16M gtd) GB Rashan Gary 4yr / $96M ($35M gtd)
$16-20M
DT Milton Williams
CAR Derrick Brown 4yr / $96M ($63M gtd) NE Christian Barmore 4yr / $84M ($42M gtd)
NE Antonio Gibson 3yr / $11M ($5M gtd) LV Alexander Mattison 1yr / $2M ($2M gtd)
$2-4M
What I’m doing
Saying goodbye to…
Josh Sweat (you don’t sign a 28-year old pass rusher to a big deal), Mekhi Becton (deserves a contract but somebody will likely pay him a lot given he can play OT and OG), and Isaiah Rodgers (another guy you would like to keep, but market is likely a 3-year deal which I wouldn’t do, just let Kelee take his spot).
Signing…
LB Zack Baun: 3 year, $27M If you are reading this, I know we all agree. Yes, we know Howie hasn’t paid LBs and we’ve suffered for it as we finally have a guy like TJ Edwards who then goes on to CHI for $6M a year and our defense suffers.
Baun’s open market value is tough, every year there’s a top end deal some team is willing (and foolish) to pay – last year it was Patrick Queen, the year before Tremaine Edmunds. Edmunds is what could happen – a higher draft pedigree, but his and Baun’s careers were similar up to that point before CHI gave him $18M AAV in free agency. But most likely Baun lands at the top-end of the “sane” tier (Blake Cashman, Lavonte David, and Kaden Elliss).
Not sure Howie actually does this and I’d never thought I’d propose it either as I largely agree with Howie’s prioritization. But you can reconcile it with positional value because Baun, besides being an overall LB, has been the best coverage LB in the league which is extremely valuable.
DT Milton Williams: 3 year, $65M You have to look ahead and plan for Jalen Carter’s massive extension that’s out there, but you can avoid any material cap hits on it until 2028-29, giving you a few years where you can pay Milt.
DT prices have gone up a ton in free agency – when I dug into the comps, I realized my initial view of a $17-18M price tag for Milt now looks way too low. For a guy just turning 26, can play across the line, and generates pressure at a good rate, he’s going to get a lot – Barmore and Derrick Brown are similar profiles and just got $21M and $24M. Milt’s played a bit less than them but is every bit as good.
Getting Milt for only 3 years may be an issue as the market has been 4 years, but it’s how the Eagles generally do deals – with the exception of Hurts, Landon Dickerson, Lane Johnson, and Dallas Goedert, they’ve largely done 3 years. And, since Milt has no remaining years on his current deal, the Eagles don’t have as many void years to use – the Eagles would likely look to do a 5 year deal made up of 3 “real” years and 2 voids.
Try to bring back but only at the right price…
RB Kenny Gainwell: 1 year, $3M The Eagles love him, Lane called him the most underrated guy on the team, he should be cheap and you need a backup for Saquon especially after his workload this year. Kenny should be cheap, however if for some reason he can get higher, you let him go. Then see what you have with Shipley or take another flyer on a guy in the draft.
Where this likely puts them on cap space
I hate “the cap isn’t real” view many throw out there as it is very, very real which teams feel when they sign bad deals (Bradberry, for example). But we can, and will, push a lot of this money into the future.
Signing Baun and Milt are big commitments but the combined AAV of around $34M (including Kenny) works out with the Eagles normal contract mechanics, being around an $11M cap hit in 2025 and $18M in 2026 while also not putting them in a bad spot for future extensions. And you can feel good on risk as neither is extended past an age where you start to worry.
A peak at Baun’s and Milt’s contract structures
These contract projections won’t be right but should be directional:
Baun’s $9M AAV probably works out as a $3M cap hit in 2025 and $6M in 2026 (min salary and pro-rated bonus in 2025 and add an option bonus in 2026), leaving around $6-7M of dead cap if guarantees are held around $15M and 2 void years used. Bryce Huff’s deal is larger but a good structural comp.
Milt’s $22M AAV gets heavily pushed into 2026-27 when Goedert, Slay, and BG’s remaining dead cap is gone and the Eagles have much more space and a window before Jalen Carter’s extension really hits.
Josh Sweat’s extension before this past year’s restructure is a decent structural comp for Milt’s potential deal. Again, a min salary and a pro-rated bonus with a bulk of the total contract pushed into option bonuses that don’t start until 2026 and you get something like the following:
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Salary
$1.2M
$1.2M
$1.2M
Void
Void
Bonus
$3.7M
$3.7M
$3.7M
$3.7M
$3.7M
Option
$7.0M
$15.0M
$13.0M
$8.0M
Cap Hit
$4.9M
$11.9M
$19.9M
$16.7M
$11.7M
Updated cap space and looking ahead
These are very doable contracts and leave the Eagles with around $25M in effective cap space in 2025 and $50M in 2026.
Howie is never a big spender in free agency and we shouldn’t expect any change this year. They will of course look at depth for their primary need areas – pass rusher, OL depth, and another safety.
You can’t spend everywhere and the Eagles will need to balance what they commit to position groups. They were in a bad spot at CB (highest in the league) but quickly fixed that with the draft double-dip this year.
Over the next 3-4 years, they have lot of cap committed to QB, OL, WR, and DL and if you want to predict where Howie drafts, look to they expect to lose guys at premium positions a couple of years out and where position groups are getting expensive.
It’s why DL (both EDGE and DT) remain high probability draft picks this year.
A look at the 2025 cornerback draft class
Before diving into the 2025 cornerbacks, I wanted to start with what we know about drafting corners. It’s hard. Really hard.
Here’s how hard:
CB has the lowest hit rate in the 1st round at just 47% (average for all players is 65%)
It also has the highest 1st round bust rate (tied with WR) with 26% of 1st rounders being below average pros
Of all positions, teams are worst at picking CBs, drafting CBs in the wrong order by an average of 4 spots (for example, the 1st CB taken turns out to be the 5th best CB in that class)
Only 3 times in the past decade was the top CB taken the right one (Quinyon Mitchell appears to be the 4th) – since 2015, we’ve had Devon Witherspoon, Denzel Ward, and Derek Stingley but also Deandre Baker, Jeff Okudah, and Trae Waynes at the top pick while teams passed over guys like Trent McDuffie, Jaire Alexander, Jamel Dean, Byron Murphy, and DaRon Bland
On average, only 6 “above average” CBs come out of the entire draft each year and it’s one of the heaviest drafted positions with 32 drafted
So, take the big boards with skepticism as teams don’t get CBs right very often – guys at the top will fail and guys lower will surprise.
So much goes into CBs being successful and people care about different things. For me, I look for the following:
Change of direction: Few CBs succeed in the NFL without it. Period. Guys can succeed without top-end speed but not change of direction.
Man coverage skills: This is more preference and there are plenty of good zone CBs, but I want to see an ability to be on an island against their best.
Hands on the ball: Interceptions are notoriously opportunistic and honestly overvalued by many. But a CB getting their hands on a ball (PBUs) does translate to the NFL because it shows they are sticky in coverage, get their head around, and anticipate / break on the ball.
Film vs. future pros: You don’t always get it but when you do, you value it highly.
Attitude: If you follow me, you know I joke about wanting the Jalen Mills finger-wagging CBs. But I only half joke. Corners need that attitude of any snap loss is an insult to their entire family. I end up watching as much interviews on CBs as film for this reason.
1st Round: The guys I’d bet on
Benjamin Morrison, Notre Dame
6’0″ 190 lbs
Junior (21 years old at draft)
Exp Draft Position: 12-27
Yep, I have Morrison as CB1 over Will Johnson (and I’m assuming Travis Hunter will primarily be a receiver and is going to be pick 1.1 anyway). It’s close and I wouldn’t argue if you had Will above him but people are not talking about BMo anywhere near enough right now. And given he had season-ending surgery, he could be an especially intriguing guy that has a much better chance of dropping near Philly’s pick than Will does:
Patient and fluid, stays connected on breaks and has the speed (supposed 4.39) to carry WRs deep
Plays a lot of press man and left on an island so often, also very capable in zone (56 QB rating in man, 53 in zone in 2023)
16% PBU and 4% run stop rate with 30 tackles and 4 TFLs put him near the top of this class(2023 full season)
Probably the best film vs. Marvin Harrison Jr. of any CB, holding him to his 2nd worst game (3/7/30 with 2 PBUs)
Also covered Jordan Addison, Puka Nacua, Zay Flowers, Josh Downs only allowing an average 35 YPG
Tough to find many bad games, if there is one it is the Louisville game where he missed a couple of tackles and gave up some receptions (although the one big one was where he slipped)
I mentioned above wanting an attitude with corners and and if you listen to Morrison, you love his confidence and approach to the game.
Teammate and now Charger Cam Hart said about Morrison to NDInsider:
“Since Day One, he’s finding ways to get better, finding ways to get extra work on the field. He’s texting me at all times of the night, trying to watch film and learn certain things about the defense” and “he’s a little gnat, that dude was in my back pocket since Day One. He had traits that I didn’t have as a freshman.”
Sam Hartman, Notre Dame’s QB in 2023, said:
“At practice he was always the guy asking for more reps, the guy wanting to compete, pushing guys and pushing our offense.”
He gets described so similarly to Quinyon and would be great opposite him for years to come. He produced over and over against future NFL talent and has the character, work ethic, and leadership the Eagles value. He’s my CB1.
Will Johnson, Michigan
6’2″ 202 lbs
Junior (22 years old at draft)
Exp Draft Position: Top 10
Johnson is expected – and I expect also – to be drafted much higher than where the Eagles will be, solidly in the top 10. And he should be:
Fluid hips, quick with really good short-area change of direction
Very good zone corner (may be the best in this class)
His really low 7.7% PBU rate looks concerning but isn’t as Michigan has him play off the majority of snaps, leading to a lot of easy completions – while there aren’t a ton of press reps, he looks good when in press
Top in this class allowing only 3 YAC per reception in 2024
I do wonder a little about his long speed – will be interesting to see him test but I would not be surprised if he was upper 4.4s
On the field, I have Morrison (CB1a) and Johnson (CB1b) close but two things have me putting Morrison ahead of him: first, Morrison is better in press and more disruptive at the catch point, and second, there could be durability concerns with Will. He had knee surgery before the 2023 season, then missed 4 games due to a shoulder in 2023, and missed another 6 games this season due to a toe. Yes, Morrison has the hip, but he doesn’t have a string of injuries.
Borderline R1-2: Guys that will surprise
End of R1 or early R2, the “average” corner you can expect in the draft based on historical value measures is a Greg Newsome II or Joey Porter Jr. – both are right around expected draft value
Trey Amos, Ole Miss
6’1″ 188 lbs
5th year Sr (23 years old at draft)
Exp Draft Position: 48-52
I like Trey more than his consensus draft position and bet he will be a back-end-of-the-1st guy on draft day. A transfer from Alabama, he’s put up a really good last two seasons:
More press and man reps than anybody else in this class and where I love to see him play where he held QBs to a 43.0 passer rating
Long-armed and gets his hands on the ball a ton – his 19% PBU rate in 2024 and 15% in 2023 put hims in the company of Quinyon, Joey Porter Jr, and Devon Witherspoon from the past couple drafts
Stays attached to receivers and gives up nothing after the catch (2.8 YAC over 40 receptions the past two seasons)
Very good coverage reps against Brock Bowers and Kyren Lacy, two bigger targets
Willing tackler, especially out wide – his 38 tackles and 3 TFLs are some of the better in this class
While an older prospect, he’s inexperienced as he only had 20 targets at Alabama last year before transferring and starting at Ole Miss this year but was one of the SEC’s top corners
CBs are always drafted heavily averaging over four in the 1st round and in a CB class that doesn’t have a ton of top-end guys, Trey is going to go higher than his current EDP. He’s my CB3.
Jahdae Barron, Texas
5’11” 200 lbs
5th year Sr (23 years old at draft)
Exp Draft Position: 39-44
While he’s played a lot of outside CB this year and had his best college season doing so, he’s probably better as a nickel in the NFL.
Physical corner with very good short area quickness and ability to break on routes
5 interceptions and 6 PBUs on only 53 targets this year, holding QBs to a 27 QB rating, best in this class
Solid run defender and always around the ball, 38 tackles and 8% missed tackle rate are both near the top of this class
Plays a lot of zone coverage and one of the best in this class in zone given his ability to close quickly
Probably doesn’t have the size or long speed to play outside
He’s my CB4 but on the Eagles, he would likely fill the spot Cooper DeJean is playing. While that could work and Jahdae could play some outside, I’d prefer to target a pure outside guy.
Day 2: Guys with projection but upside
Mid to late day 2 where the Eagles will be picking, the “average” corner you can expect in the draft is a Kristian Fulton or Benjamin St. Juste.
Azareye’h Thomas, Florida St
6’2″ 198 lbs
Junior (will be 20 at draft)
Exp Draft Position: 70-85
Like Zy Alexander, another guy I could see as a safety or hybrid defender, despite a lot of experience in press.
Tall with good college production, but may lack the speed and short-area quickness for corner – reminds me a bit of Coby Bryant
Gets his hands on the ball a lot – 15% PBU rate this year with 11 PBUs in 72 targets the past 2 years
Solid tackler and run defender
Darien Porter, Iowa State
6’4″ 200 lbs
Senior (will be 24 at draft)
Exp Draft Position: 67-78
I generally don’t love tall corners – reach is great but honestly overrated when you look at pro success and it almost always comes at the price of short-area quickness. But I liked Porter:
One of the older prospects but raw – he converted from WR and only has 41 career targets at corner, further development can be expected
Has the speed to carry deep routes but it also makes up for lost space in routes, he can allow separation on quick breaks
Interceptions are notoriously opportunistic and mistakes are made valuing college CBs based on interception totals, but Porter’s receiver background shows with 3 INTs on 17 targets this year and he gets his hands on the ball consistently
May be one of the best special teams player in this draft class with 4 blocked punts – backup CB and plus special-teamer is his absolute floor in the NFL
He has the traits but has so little college experience, especially at his age. Liked by many high, he’s a guy I ask “is he a better prospect than Kelee was?” And the answer is probably “no”.
Domani Jackson, Alabama
6’1″ 197 lbs
Junior (will be 21 at draft)
Exp Draft Position: 130-140
Domani is a guy I re-watched (thanks to @WannabGM highlighting him) as I did not like his 2023 at all but he probably has the biggest jump of this group from 2023 to 2024.
Went from a 129 passer rating allowed and 6% PBU rate in 2023 at USC to a 57 passer rating and 13% PBU rate in 2024 at Alabama and the change is noticeable on film
Stays connected with WRs especially downfield and is disruptive at the catch point
In a class with a lot of willing but not great tacklers, Domani is up there with Denzel Burke, Jahdae Barron, and Zy Alexander as the plus run defenders
Think he is faster than he is quick – I don’t buy the supposed 4.28 speed and you will see delays in transition from backpedal to break – doesn’t give up a lot but when he does, it’s usually on stop routes
I think he should return for another year to raise his draft stock as he has the potential to be a 1st rounder, but if he can go early/mid day 2 this year, he should come out. His current EDP is too low and will change come April. If he’s there day 2, he’s a great upside pick especially if he can develop behind some guys.
Maxwell Hairston, Kentucky
6’1″ 186 lbs
Junior (age TBD)
Exp Draft Position: 53-58
One of the last corners I watched, Maxwell Hairston is a guy I liked more than I expected. A different body type than Rasul Douglas, but he reminds me of him:
You want him in zone with the play in front of him where his aggressiveness and playmaking shines
One of the top playmakers with 6 interceptions, 8 PBUs, and 3 forced fumbles across 88 targets the past 2 seasons – aggressive when the ball arrives
Doesn’t get his head turned around, especially when stressed downfield – unsure if this is confidence in technique but probably some long-speed issues
Missed half of 2024 with a shoulder injury – his 2023 film was better than his 2024
More than most guys in this class, I think system and usage of Hairston is going to be so important.
And the rest of the CBs…
Remember above when I gave the stats on risk with drafting corners? Following are all guys with intriguing traits but bigger draft risks – development, movement, speed, or injury.
And some of these guys will go high still. But when I think about where I’d draft them, I ask “if a young, athletic, successful Kelee Ringo with over 1,600 SEC snaps and 136 college targets went in the 4th due to knee health and change of direction concerns, where do these less experienced and less accomplished guys fall with similar risks?”
Given good CBs come from later in the draft, chances are one or more of these guys will turn out to be a very good pro. But the range of outcomes is wider here than the guys above.
Shavon Revel Jr, East Carolina
6’3″ 193 lbs
Senior (will be 23 at draft)
Exp Draft Position: 20-30
Shavon deserves a longer write-up and one where most will disagree with me.
One of the jewels of this class, he’s solidly locked into the 1st round on any list you see. And there’s a ton to love about him but his age and ACL tear make this a riskier pick than others:
44% completion rate allowed, 23% PBU rate, and 61.2 QB rating allowed in his full 2023 season, all near the top of this class
Level of competition will obviously be a question – Quinyon is the obvious small school success story, but there are plenty of athletic, good small school CBs that didn’t make the leap
Great size and speed and a very good run defender with a 6% run stop rate and few missed tackles
There’s more up and down to his film than I see people talking about – App State is a good watch, some great coverage and then not keeping up on a vertical route and giving up too much separation on underneath routes allowing 4/9/109 with an INT, Michigan had a couple of reps where he did the same going 3/4/34 with a bad throw that could have been a completion
In last 15 games and 28 receptions allowed, he’s given up longs of 49, 47, 44, 39, and 29
Even though ACL surgeries have gotten better, they’re typically close to a year recovery and another year of degraded performance. Is he going to be like Trevon Diggs, back this year but nowhere near his old level and Marcus Peters, older when he tore his but had down years in 2022-23 on return?
Or will he be like Garrett Williams who tore his ACL at about the same time as Shavon, dropped from a projected late 1st / early 2nd round pick to pick 72, missed half his rookie season and now back and playing very well in his sophomore NFL season?
Before the injury, he’s a day 2 guy for me, but the ACL and his age adds risk that needs to be considered. To me, you cannot take him in the 1st and if you have to take him at our 2nd pick (around 62) and deciding between him and a 2nd round EDGE or some of the lighter drafted positions with top guys now coming off the board like TEs Harold Fannin or Mason Taylor, SAF Xavier Watts, or OG Tate Ratledge, what makes more sense?
I mentioned Kelee above and I was lower on Kelee coming out, but he was absolutely a better and more complete prospect than Shavon. It will be interesting to see where Shavon goes and somebody may be enthralled with his true athletic skills and take him high. Regardless, a team is going to get a high upside, athletic corner, you are just accepting a lot of uncertainty and risk if you use a high pick here. It’s not what I would do.
Zy Alexander, LSU
6’2″ 194 lbs
Senior (age TBD)
Exp Draft Position: 90-100
A guy whose stats tell a much better story than the film and while I hate projecting position changes, I could see him as a better NFL hybrid corner/safety than outside CB.
His 39.7 QB rating and 42% completion rate allowed are near the top of this class, but you see more ups and downs on film
Much, much better in zone than man coverage – another guy that is so much better with the play in front of him
His long speed is not great and you can see it stressed when carrying somebody down field
Tackles and plays the run very well, has a silly 3.7% missed tackle rate in 2024 and career 7.5% missed tackle rate – he has almost as many interceptions (13) as missed tackles (14)
Denzel Burke, Ohio St
6’1″ 193 lbs
Senior (will be 22 at draft)
Exp Draft Position: 70-85
A guy I want to like, but am just lower on than consensus – I think he’s a good college CB whose traits just don’t cleanly project to a high-level in the NFL.
Smart, efficient defender who is one of the better run defenders and tacklers in this class – allows 3.7 YAC and has a 7% run stop rate, both near the top of this class
Much better zone corner than man, where he’s been a liability this year allowing 17/18 receptions, 239 yards, zero PBUs, and a 137 QB rating in man
Speed and suddenness are issues that I fear are hard limits to his projection in the NFL
Looking at the risk stats on corners, Burke is a guy that is really tough to take high where he is still projected by many, but when you look at him late day 2 or day 3 (where I have him), I would much rather go for the upside of a Darien Porter or Domani Jackson even though their college resumes are nowhere near as good.
Could the Eagles go after a CB again?
I’m not sure I have ever seen so much consensus around an Eagles draft as this year with EDGE running the table in every mock draft out there:
NFLMockDraftDatabase has Ohio State’s J.T. Tuimoloau, Arkansas’s Landon Jackson, and Jalon Walker as the top three mocked players
Tankathon projects Texas A&M’s athletic freak EDGE Shemar Stewart
PFF’s simulator has 75% of mock drafters taking an EDGE – any and every EDGE – with James Pearce, Shemar Stewart, Mykel Williams, and LT Overton all picked frequently
And I do think EDGE is a likely pick for Howie, given not only his valuation of the position but the expected loss of pass rushers with BG probably retiring, Josh Sweat up for a new deal in 2025, and Bryce Huff only signed through 2026. And as I wrote last year, it is near impossible to get pass rushers on the open market and if you can, they are really expensive.
Are we too locked on EDGE as the top pick?
But I don’t think we should be angry if Howie goes another direction:
EDGE will be a need but Howie fills needs in free agency and trades – EDGE and possibly DT could be the most pressing needs, but Howie will not leave himself HAVING to force a position in the draft. Yes, it’s difficult to find a pass rusher, but there are going to be mid-tier options and Sweat will be re-signed before Howie leaves a hole.
EDGE may NOT be the best value when the Eagles pick – I don’t think this is a bad EDGE class, but also don’t think it’s a great class. Almost every draft, 4-5 EDGEs are already off the board taken by the likely Eagles pick – in the last 15 drafts, half the time pick 30 (where the Eagles are currently slotted) is selecting EDGE6 or later… only twice were you picking EDGE3 and 4 of 15 drafts did you have a choice of EDGE4.
Pick your top five EDGEs – Abdul Carter, James Pearce, Mykel Williams, Nic Scourton and possibly Princely Umanmielen… what if they are all gone when the Eagles are on the clock, do you force the next EDGE? Or is CB, DT, TE, or even SAF the better value, all of which look to be good classes?
Do I really expect Howie to take another CB high? No. But besides “you can never have enough corners”, another outside corner is a highly probable need in the next 1-2 years for the Eagles.
Could a corner be this year’s value drop to the Eagles? – Jalen Carter two years ago and Quinyon and Cooper DeJean last year had Micah Parsons and the league shaking their head on “how do these guys keep dropping into Howie’s lap?” This is an imperfect CB class, a lot of guys have injury flags and the order they go in is very up in the air. What if Benjamin Morrison, who I think would be an amazing CB2 opposite Quinyon, drops due to his hip injury?
Or, Howie could scoop up another low-cost, upside guy late – The Eagles could still be set in 2025 as Slay will probably be here another year, but he is clearly at the end of his career and been banged up this year. Maybe they extend Isaiah Rodgers, but his price will go up this offseason. And maybe you love Kelee or Ricks, but neither is proven. There are several interesting guys on day 2 or 3 like Trey Amos, Domani Jackson, Darien Porter, Maxwell Hairston, and Shavon Revel.
I enjoy watching corners more than any other position as it’s one of the most interesting positions in football. And given the difficulty in hitting on corners, I find it incredibly satisfying putting your own stamp on guys and seeing where you were right and wrong down the road. Remember, the big boards are more wrong here than any other position.
Projecting EDGEs to the NFL and a look at the 2025 draft class
First, a caveat on what follows. I don’t believe in solely looking at stats for players and is not what I am doing here. You have to watch the film. But college production does matter and it helps surface risk on prospects.
College pressure rate translates to the NFL
For pass rushers, generating pressure in college is a really good predictor of NFL success.
EDGEs that make it to the pros have an average college pressure rate just over 14% with the truly elite guys – the Bosas, the Watts, Maxx Crosby, Aidan Hutchinson, and Micah Parsons – generating pressure nearly every one-in-five pass rushes.
While generating pressures in college alone doesn’t guarantee NFL success, it’ is a huge ‘s hard to ignore the relation. Below shows EDGEs drafted since 2017 with their college pressure rates (x-axis) and their NFL grade (y-axis).
Screenshot
Prospects with better college production have tended to be better pros. There are, of course, exceptions but most have a reason. The Eagles own Josh Sweat had injury concerns and was a better run defended in college. Carl Granderson took 3-4 years to hit his potential in the NFL. Odafe Oweh had an injury-shortened final season at PSU but a 15% pressure rate the prior.
College production raises NFL hit rates
Unsurprisingly, elite college pass rushers go early in the draft and teams do well to draft them. Below are hit and miss rates for EDGEs drafted since 2017 by college pressure rate:
College Pressure Rate
Draft Hit Rate
Draft Bust Rate
20% or above (7% of drafted players)
64%
18%
17-20% (14% of drafted players)
39%
30%
14-17% (29% of drafted players)
28%
46%
Under 14% (50% of drafted players)
14%
44%
EDGE has the 3rd lowest hit rate in the draft behind cornerbacks and wide receivers. But drafting these elite college pass rushers is as close to a sure thing as you can get in the draft.
College pass rushers above a 17% pressure rate are twice as likely to be good pros than not. But there aren’t many of these, just 3-6 each year in the draft.
…but “buyer beware” on low college production rates
But for those EDGEs with a 14% pressure rate or lower, only 1 in 8 turn out to be good pros with almost half being busts. And these aren’t day 3 picks.
With teams desperate for pass rushers due to how few actually hit free agency, even if you are willing to pay the $20M+ per year, EDGEs that didn’t produce in college get drafted high every year – every year, drafts average just over 1 in the 1st round and 3 on day 2. These are picks like Travon Walker (pick 1), K’Lavon Chaisson (pick 20), Myles Murphy (pick 28), Isaiah Foskey (pick 41), and Joseph Ossai (pick 69).
Some do turn out. Most don’t.
A look at the 2025 EDGE draft class
Every year as draft big boards are created and draft profiles are written, prospects are definitively labeled. Players are definitely a 1st round or top 10 pick… they comp to <insert pro bowler name>… and they are the answer to an immediate need as a starter leaves in free agency.
But all prospects, even the surest guys, have risk and a range of outcomes. And prospects should be viewed and talked about that way. That’s what I’m trying to do here – college production is an important ingredient not only to the evaluation, but to the risk discussion.
Below are where the top-100 projected EDGEs rank on college pressure rates (while we are talking about pressure, I’ve also included run stop rates as we have seen how a poor run defender at EDGE is an incredible liability).
Consensus Pick #
Player
School
Pressure Rate
Run Stop Rate
7
Abdul Carter
PSU
15.8%
15.0%
11
James Pearce Jr
Tennessee
22.3%
17.0%
14
Nic Scourton
Texas A&M
11.1%
9.9%
15
Mykel Williams
UGA
10.2%
14.9%
17
Jalon Walker
UGA
14.9%
12.8%
34
JT Tuimoloau
Ohio St
13.5%
12.1%
35
Shemar Stewart
Texas A&M
10.5%
7.4%
36
Princely Umanmielen
Ole Miss
17.5%
17.6%
38
Landon Jackson
Arkansas
10.7%
11.9%
47
Jack Sawyer
Ohio St
17.1%
9.7%
49
LT Overton
Alabama
14.2%
9.8%
54
Mike Green
Marshall
18.5%
15.0%
55
Kyle Kennard
South Carolina
13.0%
8.3%
59
Donovan Ezeiruaku
Boston College
12.4%
12.6%
66
Bradyn Swinson
LSU
17.4%
11.0%
80
Ashton Gillotte
Louisville
15.9%
7.7%
85
Josaiah Stewart
Michigan
16.3%
17.0%
91
Patrick Payton
Florida St
8.5%
8.1%
100
Jared Ivey
Ole Miss
11.3%
8.2%
Drafts average 5 above average or better pro EDGEs each year with the best years a few higher than that. The 2010 draft had 8 top EDGEs, including our own Brandon Graham. 2011 and 2015 had 7 headlined by Cam Jordan, Von Miller, Danielle Hunter, and Za’Darius Smith. But then 2020 only had 2, Chase Young and Alex Highsmith.
You don’t just draft the best producing college players – there are guys with high pressure rates above that I am lower on for various reasons like Princely Umanmielen and JT Tuimoloau. And guys with lower rates that I like, like Shemar Stewart.
Remember, as sure as everybody may be, of the 19 projected EDGEs in the top 100 EDGEs with five projected 1st rounders and nine 2nd rounders, it’s highly probable that a quarter of them, at best, turn out to be above average pros. And history shows us that those with lower college production just have higher risk.
EDGE remains the most popular (and always a favorite target for Howie) 1st round pick for the Eagles this year as Josh Sweat may leave in free agency, BG likely retires, Bryce Huff underperforms.
I’m going through EDGEs as more and more film becomes available and have some early favorites:
Abdul Carter – the most complete EDGE rusher, but he will be long gone by the time the Eagles pick
James Pearce – may be the best pass-rusher in this class but again, likely will be gone by their pick.
Josaiah Stewart – reminds me of Nick Herbig, knocked for his size but it doesn’t show up on film and I don’t see him going anywhere near as late as 85. My only question is his bend.
Shemar Stewart – a projection and higher variance pick and one I struggled with and re-watched several times, his movement at his size is special. A pick I could regret as I love giant pass rushers, he has a play or two every game that show his strength and length that just look silly.
If your favorite name is missing above, I either don’t have enough film (Mike Green) or I’m not as high on them as others (Mykel Williams, Nic Scourton, Princely Umanmielen).
I’m not as high on this EDGE class as most are. I think history will show it to be an average class and down from recent years. And for that reason, while EDGE is a need and the most popular pick for the Eagles, don’t be surprised if the best value when they are picking is at interior defensive line or (yes, another) corner or safety.
