Eagles

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Howie, He’s a Complicated Man no one Understands, but Lurie
Date: 11/19/21
The perception of most Eagles fans is that the front office can’t draft a Quarterback. Most believe Howie and his team have tried, and failed miserably at this. Most of this was brought on by Howie himself when he made his infamous statement that “We want to be a QB factory”. Read more
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What Does the Data Say on Run / Pass Balance?
Date: 11/10/21
An analysis of drive run/pass balance and what balance drives the highest success and value. Turns out, drives that lean more balanced have more success. Read more
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Eagles 2022 Early Draft Need Preview, With Potential First Rounders
Date: 11/03/21
Read more
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Grouping QB Accuracy By CPOE - Who Does Hurts Look Like?
Date: 10/29/21
As a follow-up to the "Hurts May Be What He Is... What Historical Data Shows on QB Development", a look at the progression of Hurts accuracy vs. specific top, late-developing, and middle of the league QBs. Read more
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Hurts May Be What He Is... What Historical Data Shows on QB Development
Date: 10/26/21
Looking at historical QB data, when are QBs "what they are"? Past data shows QBs are largely what they are between 500 - 1,000 career pass attempts and it is "getting late early" for Hurts. Read more
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Jason Kelce Has Me Thinking About a Lot Right Now
Date: 10/22/21
Kelce has become the conscience of Philly sports and he showed it Thursday. But comments he made last December have me thinking about the 2021 season and many of the changes people want to see the Eagles make. Read more
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Spellbinding and Mind Blowing Signature Plays, Quarterbacks Edition
Date: 10/21/21
A review of the spellbinding and mind blowing signature plays from recent Philadelphia Eagle Quarterbacks. Read more
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Reminiscing, the 2021 Draft. What Went Right and Wrong?
Date: 10/18/21
Reminiscing about the 2022 NFL Draft,and I think most agree DeVonta Smith from Alabama was a great first pick. If you were GM, what would you have done different? Read more
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Where Is Hurts In His Development?
Date: 10/14/21
Hurts is over 300 passing attempts in his career now and I look at where he has improved and what will hold him back from being a top 10 QB. The primary issue is in the volume passing range of 1-10 yards. Read more
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What is Wrong (and Right) With the Eagles Defense
Date: 10/06/21
A lot has been made of the Eagles defense the past two games as it has been exposed. I look deeper into the data on what is going on in the run game and passing defense. And, a quick 2022 mock to fix it all... Read more
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Daring and Driven, Gainwell Does it All for Family
Date: 10/05/21
When Kenny was 13 his older brother, Curtis, was attempting to become a Southern Miss walk on for the football team when he suffered a life altering stroke while weightlifting. Read more
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5 Statistics Before the Eagles / Cowboys Week 3 Game
Date: 09/27/21
A look at five stats going into the Monday Night Eagles-Cowboys game. Read more
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Jalen Hurts and the Deep Ball
Date: 09/26/21
A lot has been made of Jalen Hurts' deep passing to start 2021, with the opener having few deep passes and the 2nd game having a couple of underthrows. I look at various stats to see where Hurts sits in deep passing - he has been very good to start his career. Read more
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A Re-Look at What Landon Dickerson Brings Us (and an Update After Week 2)
Date: 09/24/21
A quick look back at what Landon's first NFL action, what to take away from it, and an earlier post on what he is bringing the Eagles . Read more
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What Went Wrong Against San Francisco and a Frustration-Induced Look at Draft Needs
Date: 09/20/21
What went wrong in the SF game. Some analytics on the game. Eagles positional needs. And a 2022 mock if you read that far. Read more

Howie, He’s a Complicated Man no one Understands, but Lurie

Damn right.

Should Howie be as vilified as he is regarding drafting QB’s?

As you read, try and hear the distinctive funky guitar and hi-hat cymbal sounds of the great Isaac Hayes in your head. Right on!

The perception of most Eagles fans is that the front office can’t draft a Quarterback. Most believe Howie and his team have tried, and failed miserably at this. Most of this was brought on by Howie himself when he made his infamous statement “We want to be a QB factory”.

I went back 15 years to look at every QB selection the Eagles have made. During that span they have only drafted 7 QB, basically one every other year. A few of these picks Howie had little to nothing to do with. Lurie on the other hand, green lighted every one of them.

2007 round 2 pick 4 (36th overall) Kevin Kolb

2010 round 4 pick 24 (122nd overall) Mike Kafka

2012 round 3 pick 25 (88th overall) Nick Foles

Philadelphia Eagles should trade for Nick Foles as Jalen Hurts' backup

Of the 7 Quarterbacks selected, I would think it is fair to say Howie had little input on all 3 of these despite him being named GM in 2010. Andy Reid had full autonomy during this era, and if there is anyone left with any culpability, it would be Jeff Lurie.

2013 round 4 pick 1 (98th overall) Matt Barkley

Arizona Cardinals Trade For Matt Barkley

Chip Kelly’s first season as head coach and the beginning of the end of Howie’s GM stint. 

Barkley never turned into what Howie (and the Eagles) envisioned (even though it is debatable that one should expect high success at the QB position with a 4th round pick). The draft did bring Lane Johnson, Zach Ertz and Bennie Logan with the first 3 picks, but that didn’t impress Chip.

2016 round 1 pick 2 (2nd overall) Carson Wentz

The wheeling and dealing Howie did to get the second overall pick is a fascinating story in itself. I would think most agree that prior to his 2017 injury vs the Rams, Carson was on his way to an MVP season. He seemingly had a bright future and career with Philadelphia. The injury, Nick Foles coming on in relief to win the Super Bowl (and MVP honors of the game) seemed to be too much for Carson to overcome. Maybe the front office, fans, and teammates didn’t overcome that either.

2019 round 5 pick 29 (167th overall) Clayton Thorson

A disastrous pick. He never even made it through the summer. Just an indefensible miss.

2020 round 2 pick 21 (53rd overall) Jalen Hurts 

NFL Power Rankings: Stacking Jalen Hurts vs the NFC East's other QBs

So what does Howie do after the 2019 blunder? He stands pat in the 2020 draft and doesn’t trade his 2nd round pick to acquire Cee Dee Lamb, possibly to make amends in his own mind at the Thorson mistake. He selects Jalen Hurts out of Oklahoma. Howie is a smart man (we all know his background, Florida and Fordham) and rarely is he going to tell the media why he makes the selections he does. On the fly, he made the regrettable QB factory statement. (Why he didn’t have an answer ready is more surprising. Hard to imagine he did not anticipate the back lash and questions) Howie was also very careful not to hurt Carson’s fragile ego. So he made himself look worse, and brought more scrutiny to the position, unnecessarily. 

“We liked the player, he was the best on our board, next question?”

So as a recap:

QB’s drafted that Howie is probably responsible for

Barkely, 4th rd, a miss. How many are good at this point in the draft?

Wentz, 1st rd, a success. He chose the right QB in that draft.

Thorson, 5th rd and a miss. The worst miss but wasted the least capital.

Hurts, 2nd round, the outcome of this decision is a work in progress. (trending up)

Conclusion: 

Howie made a big move and drafted what everyone believed to be a long term franchise QB (I went to Carson’s debut vs the Browns and remember telling the person beside me, ”we finally got one” everyone was elated with Carson pre 2018 injury.

Soley focusing on the QB position alone (discussing other positions is where the real flaw of his drafts are in my opinion ie: lack of LB and misses with WR and CB) where did he go wrong? What would you have done differently? 

Not select Thorson? (he wasted a 5th rd pick, every GM does) 

What QB would this franchise have if you ran the team?

Howie Roseman - SJ Magazine

Thank you, as always, for reading

David

Follow me @PHLEagleNews

What Does the Data Say on Run / Pass Balance?

It’s a passing league – are teams really better off with a balanced offense?

This is an analysis I have been thinking about for a while and even more recently with the debate on the Eagles run / pass balance. Usually I have an idea where an analysis will land, but going into this I really did not know what to expect. I probably expected passing-heavy drives to be more successful but the data shows that successful drives are more likely to be balanced than passing heavy.

I am not a “smash mouth, old school, let’s run all day” believer, but I also differ with a common view in the analytics community that passing is always better than running. Expected Points Added (EPA), the key metric used to analyze players, plays, and games, is almost always negative for runs and positive for passes. That means that on any given play, regardless of down, distance, point in the game, etc., a pass has more expected value than a run.

For 2021, EPA splits for running and passing are the following:

  • Passing: League average +0.173 EPA per play with 29 of 32 teams averaging a positive EPA on passing attempts
  • Rushing: League average -0.039 EPA per play with only 8 teams having a positive EPA for rushing attempts

(The 8 teams with positive rushing EPA this season are Arizona, Baltimore, Buffalo, Cleveland, Indy, Kansas City, Philly, and Tennessee… interesting to note that 6 of the 8 are teams with top rushing QBs)

Run/pass balance for the league and Eagles

A couple of points on the data used. The dataset I am using is from 2015-2021 and calculates at a drive level using the number of passes and runs for each drive. It ended up not making much of a difference in the overall data but I excluded three types of drives:

  • “Garbage time” drives where win expectancy was over 90%
  • Drives with turnovers
  • Drives with penalties

From 2015-2021, the league (blue bar) had a median drive balance of 66% passing / 34% rushing.

The Eagles (red bar) had the same median drive balance although most in Philly, including me, would not believe that. Philly does skew towards heavier passing though – the top red box shows the centerline (median) at 66% but the right-hand side of the box stretches out to 80% passing, meaning that 25% of their drives were between 66-80% passing (vs. the league average where 25% of drives were between 66-75%). Not a huge skew, but the Eagles definitely use more passing-heavy drives.

Value of drives by run/pass balance

Below I have grouped drives into quintiles by run/pass balance – the far left group includes drives that used between 0-20% passing, the second group is drives between 20-40% passing, and so on. To the left are run-heavy drives and to the right are pass-heavy drives.

Excess Points scored by run/pass balance

The first chart shows excess points scored by drive run/pass balance grouping. Excess points are what was actually scored on a drive vs. the expected points at the beginning of the drive – all drives have an expected point value at the start of the drive based on starting field position, time left in the half, and score differential. I like excess points as a metric here as it normalizes shorter and longer drives.

The middle quintile between 40-60% passing (“balanced drives”) has the highest average points scored vs. expected drive points with a very slight positive 0.02 excess points scored. It also has the highest range with 25% of balanced drives scoring between +0.02 and +3.93 excess points. All other quintiles have negative median excess points.

Drive EPA by run/pass balance

This next look uses average drive EPA instead of excess points, but has the same result with the middle quintile (“balanced drives” between 40-60% passing) having the highest average drive EPA and only quintile with a positive median drive EPA.

And if you look at drives not grouped into quintiles, it is messier but shows the same overall point with the trendline of excess points highest on drives between 50-55% passing.

The two ends – 0% passing drives and 100% passing drives – both have mini-peaks as well which was puzzling. It turns out these drives are primarily drives that start deep in the opponent territory (the opponent’s 30 yard line or lower).

Drives ending in score by run/pass balance

If you look at the result of the drive – whether the drive resulted in a score or not – again the same point is made. Drives ending in a touchdown averaged 62.5% passing, drives ending in a field goal averaged 63.4% passing, and drives that did not score averaged 66.7% passing. Again, these filter out garbage time. Not huge differences in run/pass balance, but again drives that lean more balanced have higher success rates.

2021 team run/pass balance and value

And lastly, a look at every team’s run/pass balance vs. excess points scored in 2021. Teams with better QBs have higher excess points scored (no surprise) but they are not all heavy passing teams – Brady, Rodgers, Dak, and Herbert are all more pass-heavy than the league average but Kyler, Tannehill, Josh Allen, Stafford, and Mahomes (barely) are less pass-heavy than the overall league. The Eagles, unsurprisingly in 2021, are more pass heavy with lower value as their passing game has struggled.

  • Top right – above average pass rates, above average excess points
  • Top left – below average passing rates, above average excess points
  • Bottom right – above average passing rates, below average excess points
  • Bottom left – below average passing rates, below average excess points

Eagles 2022 Early Draft Need Preview, With Potential First Rounders

I would like to preface this by saying, I can’t imagine the Eagles will actually use three first round picks in the 2022 NFL Draft. I would imagine they deal one (or more) away to a QB needy team to grab an extra second or third round pick in 2022, and push the first round selection(s) to 2023. Or, they trade multiple picks, including one or two of the three first rounders, to acquire an established QB. With that being stated, the needs and picks in this article will be based off what they have now, three first round picks.

The Eagles have many needs all over the defense, and unless they’re really in love with Kenny Pickett or Mailik Willis, having Hurts for another year is likely the best option. Acquiring an Edge, OL(C), LB, CB and or S with 3 of the first 4 picks would be a priority. DE Kayvon Thibodeaux and Aidan Hutchinson, S Kyle Hamilton, LB Nakobe Dean or Devin Lloyd and CB Kaiir Elam or Derek Stingley Jr are my top rated players to make that happen. I included QB in the article because anytime you draft this high you have to look at that position as a possible draft choice.

LB

Unfortunately the Eagles have rarely used a first round pick on a linebacker. The players currently projected to be first round picks are Utah’s Devin Lloyd , Alabama product Christian Harris and my current favorite, Nakobe Dean out of Georgia.

A few potential second round talents have emerged including Texas’ DeMarvion Overshown, Auburn’s Owen Pappoe , Brandon Smith out of Penn St and Florida’s Ventrell MIller.

Georgia captain Nakobe Dean: Bulldogs prioritize 'connection,' accountability to team
Nakobe Dean

OT

With an aging Center, and the Eagles seemingly wanting to keep Landon Dickerson as a LG next to Jordan Mailata on the end for the foreseeable future, they will be looking to draft another OL in the 2022 draft. And they should be.

Alabama Evan Neal, UCLA Sean Rhyan, Penn St Rasheed Walker, Miami (Fl) Zion Nelson Ohio ST,  Nicholas Petit- Frere, Charles Cross Mississippi St, Abraham Lucas Washinton St, Tyler Linderbaum

Nick Saban: Evan Neal has bright future for Crimson Tide
Evan Neal

S

The Eagles need to build a solid defensive backfield, Kyle Hamilton would do that immediately. If they don’t want to use a top 10 pick on a safety, below are some names to look into during the first 2 rounds.

Alabama Jordan Battle, Northwestern Brandon Joseph, Michigan’s Daxton Hill, Miami (FL) Bubba Bolden, Lewis Cine Georgia 

Notre Dame star safety Kyle Hamilton exits game vs. USC with leg injury, does not return - CBSSports.com
Kyle Hamilton

QB

Whether you are a Jalen Hurts guy or not, anytime you draft as high in the first round as the Eagles will be doing, you have to look at QB. All of the ones below will potentially be drafted in the first 2 rounds, the Eagles would only be looking into the ones ranked in the top ten.

Matt Corral Miss, Malik Willis Liberty, Sam Howell UNC, Kenny Pickett Pitt, Carson Strong out of Vegas  (Sadly, the name alone will turn half the fan base off)  Desmond Ridder Cincinnati 

Why Liberty's Malik Willis will be the Trey Lance of 2022 NFL Draft | Sporting News
Malik Willis

Edge

Much like OL, the Eagles need and will be looking into an Edge rusher. Four or five of these will be selected in round one.

Drake Jackson USC, George Karlaftis Purdue, Kayvon Thibodeaux Oregon, Jordan Davis Georgia, Aidan Hutchinson Michigan, Myjai Sanders Cincinnati, Zach Harrison Ohio St, Kingsely Enagbare SC, and Brenton Cox Florida

USC let Oregon freshman star Kayvon Thibodeaux slip away - Los Angeles Times
Kayvon Thibodeaux

CB

My favorite position, and the one the Eagles have seemingly most neglected with high draft capital. Luckily for them, 2022 will have four potential first rounders and absolutely need to use a first round selection on one of them.

Derek Stingley Jr LSU , Kaiir Elam Florida, Andrew Booth Jr Clemson , Ahmad Gardener Cincinnati , Trent McDuffie Washington, Mykael Wright Oregon, Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson TCU, Derion Kendrick Georgia, Josh Jobe Alabama

Mel Kiper is correct, Kaiir Elam is a top 10 player in the 2022 NFL Draft
Kaiir Elam

My very early first round list of 32 players(not in order) .

Edge Kayvon Thibodeaux

OT Evan Neal

S Kyle Hamilton

CB Derek Stingley Jr

WR Chris Olave

QB Malik Willis

Edge Aidan Hutchinson

S Brandon Joseph

DE David Ojabo

OT Sean Rhyan 

Edge Myjai Sanders

OT Charles Cross

CB Ahmad Gardner

LB Nakobe Dean

QB Sam Howell

S Jordan Battle

OT Nicholas Petit-Frere

LB Devin Lloyd

OT Rasheed Walker

QB Kenny Pickett

CB Kaiir Elam

Edge George Karlaftis

Edge Drake Jackson

CB Andrew Booth Jr

S Daxton Hill

C Tyler Linderbaum

WR Garrett Wilson

DL DeMarvin Leal

LB Christian Harris

Edge Zach Harrison

CB Trent McDuffie

DT Jordan Davis

I am not a scout nor would ever claim to be. I mainly watch film of corners and wideouts, but I have become dedicated to watching a lot more since the Eagles have 3 potential first round picks in the 2022 draft. Outside of cornerbacks, spending the amount of time it takes watching all of the potential first rounders will be as far as I go until the offseason. I will always keep talking to coaches, scouts and watching tape and release a new list early next offseason.

My current favorite at each position are pictured.

Let me know what you think

Follow me @PHLEagleNews

David

Grouping QB Accuracy By CPOE – Who Does Hurts Look Like?

As a follow-up to my recent post “Hurts May Be What He Is… What Historical Data Shows on QB Development” where I compared Hurts’ accuracy numbers to past QB averages, I wanted to also look at Hurts vs. specific QBs.

Accuracy development of average and top 10 QBs

First, here is Hurts’ career Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE) vs. the average of all QBs drafted over the past decade-plus and the average of the top 10 QBs in the same period. Hurts is clearly trending like an average QB.

Hurts vs. top QBs

Next, here is Hurts vs. six of the top ten QBs in this period (Wilson, Watson, Dak, Stafford, Herbert, and Kyler Murray). Again, Hurts looks like more of an average QB as each of these six had accuracy numbers that stabilized higher much quicker than Hurts.

Some late developing QBs

Now on the bright side, there are top QBs whose early career looked similar to or worse than Hurts, including Lamar, Cousins, Tannehill, and the classic “figured out accuracy in the pros” Josh Allen. Some may question me including Cousins or even Tannehill in a “top QBs” list but they are 8th and 10th respectively in CPOE over the past 5 years and 5th and 6th over the past 3 years. Both developed later than typical, stabilizing around their career CPOE between 1,500-2,000 career passing attempts. Developing on a trend like one of these QBs would be the bull case for Hurts.

And QB purgatory…

And lastly as I mentioned in the previous post, Hurts’ pace of development is beginning to look like a middle-of-the-league QB. Here are some “purgatory QBs” that Hurts looks like from an accuracy perspective.

Hurts should near 750 career passing attempts by the end of the season. If Hurts suddenly starts looking better and improves his career CPOE from it’s current -3.6 to something close to 0 by the end of the year, there is room for optimism. And if he doesn’t, then Hurts’ supporters will be banking on him doing what only a handful have done.

Hurts May Be What He Is… What Historical Data Shows on QB Development

As Yogi Berra said, “it’s getting late early” and if past data on QB development holds, it may be doing just that for Hurts…

I was optimistic on Jalen Hurts’ ability to correct his primary issue (accuracy / timing) because of his Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE) stats in college which usually translate well to the pros. And he has improved, from a second-worst -8.3 CPOE in 2020 to a middle-of-the-pack +0.8 CPOE in 2021. But 0.8 is not good, putting him 23rd out of 33 QBs this year. And more concerning is the lack of progression – he has actually been getting worse as the season has progressed:

I wrote recently on his struggles in the game’s highest volume passing depth, the short 1-10 yard routes. Hurts still only has 1 game in his career where his 1-10 yard CPOE was positive (week 4 vs. Kansas City). And the one area where he did well last year, the deep 20+ yard targets with a very good 15.4% 2020 CPOE, has also regressed, sitting at 2.11.

And his ability to create explosive plays, previously a strength, has regressed recently. Just counting total explosive passes and runs, Hurts is 5th in the league with QBs over 100 passing attempts but his garbage / non-garbage time splits have worsened through the year. Ignoring garbage time stats where win percentage is 90% or above, he drops to 22nd in the league in creating explosive plays with 17 of his 39 explosive passes coming in garbage time and 5 garbage time explosive passes in the Raiders game alone.

What historical data tells us about QB development

Credits to @ConorMcQ5 for the inspiration here as he looked at how a QB’s CPOE progressed through their college career and after how many passing attempts a QB’s CPOE centered around their end career CPOE.

I did the same for pro QBs below, looking at all QBs from 2010-2021 and the results are similar although it takes a bit longer for pro QB CPOE stats to stabilize (which is probably explained by the longer careers in the pros).

The first chart shows the difference between a QB’s CPOE at a specific career passing attempt vs. what their ultimate career CPOE ended up being. At the far left of the chart are the first career passing attempts for QBs with data points stretching from -40 to +40 and as the chart moves to the right, it reflect the same difference as they have more and more career passing attempts. As an example, if you took a data point that is +15 at career passing attempt 1, that means that QB, on their first career passing attempt, had a CPOE 15 points higher than what their career CPOE ended up being. Obviously, the spread of CPOEs is much higher early in careers but narrows around the axis as their career progresses.

But when do we know, for the most part, when a QB is what they are? The next chart looks at the average difference from a QB’s career CPOE at each career passing attempt. For example, the leftmost data point is right above 15 which means a QB’s first career passing attempt is averages +/- 15% from what their end career CPOE is.

What is instructive is how quickly a QB’s CPOE nears their career CPOE. At 250 career passing attempts, the average QB is +/- 2.5% off of their career CPOE, at 1,000 career passing attempts they are +/- 1% from their career CPOE.

Averages can be misleading and there are always outliers. The classic example is Josh Allen who had poor college and rookie year accuracy numbers but did what most don’t and became one of the most accurate passers the past two years, second in the league with a CPOE of 6.3. and his CPOE is still increasing after 1,750 career attempts. The last chart I will show provides context on this variability in the data:

The box in boxplots show the middle two quartiles, meaning 50% of all QBs are contained inside the box with 25% of QBs below the bottom of the box and 25% of QBs above the box. The whiskers, or end lines, show the min and max data that sits outside these middle two quartiles. Some takeaways:

  • At 500 career passing attempts, half of QBs are between +/- 1.76% and 2.04% of their career CPOE with the biggest outlier being 2.52%.
  • At 750 career passing attempts, there is very little variability with 50% of QBs between +/- 1.51% and 1.61% with the biggest outlier at only 1.68% off their career CPOE.

What does this mean for Hurts?

Hurts is currently at 390 career passing attempts with a career CPOE of -3.6%. Can he get better? Sure. But he has not shown development here and historical data says that by 500 attempts, it is very unlikely to materially improve his accuracy. Even assuming the maximum improvement we have seen in past data of 2.52%, adding this to where Hurts is today gets him near a 0% career CPOE. That’s just not good enough.

You have to be careful using averages as a rule as they aren’t. There are QBs that didn’t center around their career CPOE until near 1,000 career pass attempts (Kirk Cousins and Dak Prescott for example). But as time goes on, the probability of improving dramatically continues to drop.

Hurts adds value with his mobility and we knew he would improve over the 4.5 games he played in 2020, but the fear was that he would improve to be a middle-of-the-league QB, leaving the Eagles in quarterback purgatory. That is what looks highly likely right now, especially considering there really isn’t an upward trend.

That is where I am now.

There has been a lot of recent debate on if Hurts can even be evaluated this year given the failures of Sirianni and the playcalling. Can we judge wins (which aren’t a QB metric anyway)? No. Can we look at the Eagles offense’s ability to construct drives and score? Also probably no as the playcalling and penalties are a huge impact. But there is no reason we can’t look at the things Hurts needs to improve on – the timing routes, his accuracy on short routes, his ability to consistently see open receivers. He is failing at each of these and there is no upward trend which is reflected in the data at the beginning of the post.

What does this mean for the Eagles?

The Deshaun rumors are exhausting, but they aren’t created out of thin air. It is clear Lurie and Howie would trade for one of the top QBs, whether Deshaun or Aaron Rodgers or Howie’s white whale Russell Wilson, if they could. The issue is they probably can’t. It is known that Watson does not have Philly as one of the teams he would waive his no-trade clause for. Rodgers and Wilson will control where they go as well and the Eagles seriously have to wonder if they will be a desired location given the teams that will be in the hunt for QBs.

Pittsburgh, Miami, Carolina, Washington, Houston, Detroit, New Orleans, Atlanta, and Philly all could be aggressively going after QBs (and if Seattle and Green Bay lose Wilson and Rodgers, add them to the list). The 2022 QB class is widely viewed as a weak one with probably Malik Willis, Matt Corral, and Kenny Pickett as potential first round candidates with maybe Sam Howell and Carson Strong in the mix. But most view none of them in the same class as last year’s group. Somebody will rise and a couple will be drafted high given there will be very needy teams. But there will be much more demand for QBs in 2022 than there are good options.

What do I think the Eagles will do? They will without doubt aggressively go after Wilson and Watson with their potential three 1st round picks but as I said, I think the Eagles have a tough uphill battle to win either of them.

Will they love one of the QBs in the draft? Maybe, I wouldn’t be surprised if this was their Plan B and they have had scouts at recent Pitt and Ole Miss games. I’m a Corral guy currently but don’t have great conviction on him.

But another option could be to stick with Hurts or Minshew (or a yet-to-be-name QB from the factory) for another year if one of them shows some hope this season, trade down and grab another first in 2023 to give them optionality on the next group of QBs.

Even though I think the Eagles fall into QB purgatory, I would continue to play Hurts this year barring a total collapse. The go-forward options aren’t great and there is still time for Hurts to show improvement. The plan was to see what he was this season and we should stick to that as the Raiders loss effectively puts the Eagles out of the playoffs (Dallas, unless something bad happens, has a good path to at least 11 wins and the Eagles will be scratching to find 9 if they right the playcalling and system now).

My issue is what if Hurts shows up against Detroit and the Jets and the Giants (twice)? What do you know from that? He has to show up against the better teams and with the weaker part of the schedule ahead, that means the Chargers game gets circled in red. I really wanted to see more against the better teams to really feel good about him.

Jason Kelce Has Me Thinking About a Lot Right Now

Kelce is the not only the conscience of the Eagles, he really is the conscience of Philly sports. Thursday in his press conference he spoke about what it takes and means to play in Philly. My favorite quote was when he said playing in Philly is easy, that it would be miserable to play somewhere where nobody cares.

Getting to the Ben Simmons drama he said, “Just play better, man. The city will love you.” We are incredibly lucky to have Kelce. The 9th best draft value out of over 4,000 picks since 2005. The league’s best center over the past decade. And the player that speaks honestly and most demands accountability. Whatever we think Kelce’s impact on the Eagles has been since 2011, we are probably underestimating it.

I actually had this post half-written after the Chiefs loss and set it aside as I just didn’t know where I wanted to go. I HATE overreacting to losses (or wins). But I have been thinking a lot about what the Eagles are and what they should do in this rebuilding transition year. Who to trade, who to sit, should they have gone after Stephon Gilmore or Jaylon Smith, and more.

But something Kelce said last December has me checking my thoughts. Late in the 2020 season, Kelce was asked about tanking and had what I view as one of the best and most important responses I have ever heard from an athlete:

[A]t all times in the NFL the focus should be on winning the football game. Nothing else takes precedence. No player evaluation. No amount of curiosity from anybody within the organization. Everything is focused — in my opinion — in this league upon winning games. You see a lot of losing teams sustain losses for a number of years when they have bad cultures. They have cultures where you don’t try and win every week… this isn’t basketball. One draft pick isn’t going to make us a Super Bowl champion. It might be a big start to a Super Bowl championship, but it’s always going to be about the team. That’s the greatest thing about this sport. And culture, and the way guys fight and the way guys prepare and the way guys go about their business, is a huge reason for success in this league and in this sport. So nothing takes precedence over trying to win a football game.”

I “Trusted the Process”. I have always leaned more towards moving on from players too soon rather than too late – besides a trash farm system, this was the Phillies biggest issue post the World Series. And I think any player can be traded, it just depends on the return.

But “everything is focused on winning games”. Kelce is right. After Carson tore his ACL, most of Philly thought we were done for the season (as did I) but Foles played two of the best games in a row a QB could have for the Super Bowl. Imagine if the culture was one that was accustomed to tanking… would we have had the Super Bowl?

How I am thinking about the 2021 season

The Eagles being 2-4 feels terrible right now but not sure anybody had their preseason record after 6 games any better than that. Entering the season I was more optimistic than most on their record, having them at 9 wins, and they can absolutely still get there with the Jets, Lions, Giants twice, Red Hogs twice, and Raiders. Or they could way underperform. We will see.

But the Eagles clearly need to change how they are playing. This is what I believe most feel – it isn’t the losses, it is how the Eagles have looked in losses. The excessive off-coverage that allows teams to walk down the field, no run game or run defense, play calling, linebackers being exposed, and lack of development from Hurts and Reagor.

Over the past couple of weeks we wanted to sign Stephon Gilmore and Jaylon Smith, we saw Ertz finally get traded, others rumored to be traded, clip after All-22 clip showing the plays Hurts is missing, articles wondering if Sirianni gets fired this season, and renewed rumors of a Deshaun Watson trade.

I keep going back to Kelce cautioning against not focusing on winning. And, how do you balance winning this year with long-term success for the team? Obviously the majority of what the Eagles need is the hoped-for development of Hurts and Sirianni and I’m not going to cover the obvious that Hurts needs to have better timing and Sirianni needs to actually create offensive game plans. But there are things I would like to see. And with these, I hope I stay on the right side of the “Kelce Line”, each in the best interest of the team:

1. Play less off-coverage

Eagles defensive metrics:
2nd best in the league in explosive plays allowed
3rd in average depth of pass target allowed
32nd in 1st downs allowed
29th in drive length allowed
26th in opposing drives that result in a score

Gannon has the right philosophy focused on minimizing explosive plays and forcing runs and long drives. Just one explosive play on a drive triples the chance of a score. It’s just too extreme and failing at the second part (reducing the rate of scoring because long drives typically fail). The defense bends and then breaks. We saw Slay moved up to the line in man halfway through the KC game and that needs to continue. They have to play more aggressive.

2. Start getting Zech McPhearson and Tay Gowan on the field

Rookie CB playing stats:
27 of 37 rookie CBs have played this season
Of 10 that have not played, 2 have been on IR and 7 are R6-7 picks
21 of 22 CBs drafted in rounds 1-4 have played (Zech being the only one that hasn’t)
25 rookie CBs have played at least 30 snaps

It is very unlikely that both Slay and Nelson are back next year and Avonte is a free agent after this year. Gannon insists on staying in nickel with these linebackers who are not succeeding – they are the 2nd highest group of LBs in the league in pass targets against and receptions allowed and near the bottom of the league in average depth of tackle. Data shows dime outperforms nickel in almost every passing stat – the Eagles would improve by getting an extra corner on the field. And if there is a fear of further weakening the run defense, both Zech (70.0) and Tay (77.7) graded really well in college against the run. They need to play more.

3. Get Davion and Shaun Bradley on the field

Grades for Eagles top 4 LBs by snap count:
Wilson 52.1 pass / 26.4 run defense
Singleton 34.6 / 57.2
Edwards 42.9 / 55.0
Avery 56.7 / 58.2

This finally happened against Tampa with Davion’s snap count up to 37 but Bradley is still not playing. Like corner, Davion and Bradley need to develop. Davion is the only LB on the roster with the needed athletic profile and while a small sample size, Davion and Bradley are the two highest graded LBs this year. Unlike the other LBs, both look to be the only ones that are at least competent in both run and pass defense. Not saying start them, but there is no reason not to get them more playing time – staying on the right side of the “Kelce Line”, there aren’t world-beaters playing ahead of either of them.

4. More short/intermediate passing

Eagles passing stats by depth:
27% behind LOS vs. 22% for league
43% 1-10 yards vs. 48% for league

We knew Sirianni was going to focus on getting the ball in the hands of playmakers on short passes, and despite the criticism on the screens, they have actually worked for the Eagles outside of the last game (+0.157 EPA/play vs. the league). But the majority of passing offense is the 1-10 yard range and this is where Hurts is worst. Not sure how much is play-calling vs. Hurts’ decisions, but the Eagles need to both increase the volume of 1-10 yard passes and get better at this range. This will stress Hurts’ timing.

5. And lastly, trades…

Dead cap hits for select players:
Cox – $40M
Slay – $15M
Brooks – $15M
Dillard – $1.5M
Sanders – $0.48M
Nelson and Barnett – none

A lot of talk recently on who to trade now that Ertz was finally traded. Cox is absolutely not movable due to his contract and there isn’t a good enough replacement for him. Trading Slay would be crazy as he is their best CB. Brooks and Dillard could but doubt either brings a decent return. I would be fine with Nelson and/or Barnett as both are gone after this season and both are low priced enough that there would be a market (few teams can fit large salaries). Sanders if the return is good as I would not give a second contract to a RB, they aren’t using him, and at least there is a replacement in Gainwell. But again, I don’t see any of these as a decent return and anything that looks like a fire-sale for day 3 picks sends a bad message.

The Eagles have an uphill battle this year as Dallas also gets an easier schedule the rest of the year and there is little chance the NFC East pulls a wildcard team. And this year is about developing Hurts and the young players and defining what the Eagles should do with their 2022 draft capital. Hopefully the above moves support both developing the team and having the best team on the field.

I hope I’m wrong, but I’m assuming this is Kelce’s last year. It is great that Landon is starting as the Eagles need him to hit his potential to be an on-the-field replacement. But not sure who will ever be the off-the-field replacement that Kelce is.

Spellbinding and Mind Blowing Signature Plays, Quarterbacks Edition

Randall Cunningham:

As a punter, the 91-yard punt in Dec of 89 would be Randall’s signature play. He received the ball just inside the field of play in the end zone and booted the punt as confidently and professionally as an everyday punter. He also drilled an 80-yard punt 5 years later.

As a QB, the play remembered for the ages would come against the NY Giants Oct 10th 1988 on MNF. Carl Banks drills him in the backfield bringing him down to what appeared to be a sack but Randall stabalized himself with this left hand on the turf. He springs back up and throws a TD pass to Jimmie Giles. To this day Carl Banks still cant believe Randall escaped.

“It was a pretty damn good tackle, and he was just better,” Banks said. “I’d salute that any day of the week. He was just better than I was on that play. It’s something you shake your head at and just salute that dude.”

Donovan McNabb:

Remembering Donovan McNabb's Stellar NFL Career | Bleacher Report | Latest News, Videos and Highlights

The moment would be the Jan 2005 Championship game vs the Falcons to finally get over the hump, but the signature play would be between the 4th and 26 or the 14-second scramble against the Cowboys on MNF in that championship season of 2004. I’m going to let Fred Ex (Freddie Mitchell) have the miraculous 4th and 26 play. McNabb’s 14-second scramble and 60-yard heave to Freddie (again) for a remarkable completion are just as wild every time I watch it. I can’t get over how accurate that pass is to hit Mitchell in stride. Donovan’s full athleticism was on display during that play and he ended that game with 4 TD 0 Int and 345 passing yards. A play to marvel at every time I watch it.

Michael Vick:

Michael Vick scheduled to return as Philadelphia Eagles prepare to face Miami Dolphins - lehighvalleylive.com

His signature game would be the comeback win against the Giants in 2010 capped by Desean Jackson’s (Miracle in the Meadowlands two) heroics to end it. I don’t know that I’ve ever seen another game where someone willed their team to victory in that manner. But the plays I decided to choose from were the MNF 80-yard TD pass to Desean or the Oct 11, 2011 game against the 49ers when Vick threw for a career-high 416 yards. Michael Vick escaped a sure sack (twice) to throw a TD pass to TE Clay Harbor. A fantastic moment. But that 88-yard TD throw to Desean was amazing and introduced everyone to what was to come on that magical connection.

Carson Wentz:

Carson Wentz receives Eagles' Ed Block Courage Award - Bleeding Green Nation

I began by thinking of his toughness during the Super Bowl season, like the 2017 Carolina game where he ran over a linebacker for a TD. Or the same type of play where he got injured in LA against the Rams, then throws a TD to Alshon. But when I thought more about the plays he made that just blew my mind, I chose between the ones that he had Houdini-style escapes. In 2019 against the Falcons Carson threw and completed, a pass to Agholor ashes going down while his knee was one centimeter from the turf. I also thought of the Seattle game where he scrambled and threw a bomb, again, to Agholor, for a huge gain. The play is somewhat reminiscent of the McNabb signature moment. But I couldn’t get all of the WFT games out of my head. He made a lot of mind-blowing plays during these games. One of the prettiest passes you will ever see for a TD to Miles Sanders in the back of the end zone in 2019. A TD pass to Corey Clement while being sacked in 2017. The unforgettable return of Desean Jackson to Philly where Carson tosses two TD bombs to him in the opener in 2019 season opener. I finally landed on the game the Eagles won against the Redskins in 2017 where he alluded to a pile of would-be sackers and somehow came out of the pile. I’ve watched that 50 times just for this article, and still can’t understand how he got out of that. For all of the negativity that surrounds Carson Wentz today, his 2017 season was magical before his late season injury.

Nick Foles:

The Curse of Nick Foles is going to continue to haunt the Philadelphia Eagles: Must Win | Football | pressofatlanticcity.com

Can there be any other signature play as spellbinding and satisfying as the “Philly Special”? That is the play. So for this article, I chose to decide on a non-Super Bowl moment from Saint Nick. The Championship game flea-flicker to Torrey Smith is that moment. This was a beautiful throw that I waited on pins and needles for Torrey to catch before exploding into joy in the stands (with 65,000 other fans). I also believe this to be the very instance when the entire fan base started to believe that he was going to lead us to our first Lombardi Trophy. He was playing with a confidence and swagger that he had rarely shown. Outside of the Patrick Robinson interception during this same game, I had never felt a stadium rock like it did after that touchdown completion. That night is one of the greatest celebrations in Philadelphia that I have ever been a part of.

Reminiscing, the 2021 Draft. What Went Right and Wrong?

UPDATED 10/17/21, BELOW IS ORIGINAL STORY FROM APRIL 2021

Looking back at the 2021 draft it is hard to find many flaws. Trading pick 6 for pick 11 and gaining the Dolphins 2022 first in the process, and still landing DeVonta Smith, is amazing value. Landon Dickerson has played much sooner than anyone expected and has done so really well. (Especially considering how he was thrown into the mix without any offseason practices.) Milton Williams has shown flashes while playing in all six games and starting one. Kenneth Gainwell has been a great find thus far with overall pick 150 in the 5th round. Below is the mock I did back in April with the actual draft results. Looking back at this six months later, what should the Eagles have done differently? Hindsight is always 20/20. Let me what you would have done as GM.

Actual draft positions for the 11 players I mocked to the Eagles.

DeVonta Smith to the Eagles, round one 10th overall pick. The third WR selected. I was 1 pick off as I had him ranked 11th, to the Eagles.

Eric Stokes to the Packers, Round one 29th overall pick. 8 picks off

Jamin Davis to the WFT, Round one 19th overall pick. 51 spots higher than I projected.

Deonte Brown to the Panthers pick 193. Deonte fell 111 spots further down the draft then I had mocked. The pick I had the most wrong. I thought he was much more revered.

Chuba Hubbard to the Panthers, Round four pick 126. 24 selections ahead of my projection.

Kenneth Gainwell to the Eagles, round five pick 150. see above.

Tay Gowan, drafted by the Cardinals in round six with pick 223. (Now a member of the Eagles after being traded along with a 5th rd pick for Z Ertz)

Jimmy Morrissey to the Raiders in the seventh round with pick 230, 41 spots lower than I projected.

Jonathan Cooper to the Broncos, round seven pick 239. I had him at 224.

Tre Norwood, round seven to the Steelers with pick 245. I ranked him 225.

Cary Angeline, went un drafted. He did end up on the Eagles this spring as an unsigned free agent.

Khyiris Tonga to the Bears in round seven, pick 250. I had at 240.

What actually happened

RoundSelectionPlayerPositionCollegeNotes
16Traded to the Miami Dolphins
10DeVonta SmithWRAlabamaFrom Dallas
12Traded to the Dallas CowboysFrom San Francisco via Miami
237Landon DickersonCAlabama
370Traded to the Carolina Panthers
73Milton WilliamsDTLouisiana TechFrom Carolina
84Traded to the Dallas CowboysFrom Indianapolis
4110Traded to the Cleveland Browns
123Zech McPhearsonCBTexas TechFrom Miami
5150Kenneth GainwellRBMemphis
156Traded to the Miami DolphinsFrom Dallas
6189Marlon TuipulotuDTUSC
191Tarron JacksonDECoastal CarolinaFrom Denver via Carolina
224JaCoby StevensLBLSUCompensatory pick
225Traded to the Washington Football TeamCompensatory pick
7234Patrick JohnsonLBTulane
240Traded to the Washington Football TeamFrom San Francisco

So what should they have done differently?

ORIGINAL STORY FROM APRIL 2021

The Philadelphia Eagles have so many needs on the team, that this season will be difficult to project which positions they draft, much less the actual the player. It is also challenging due to the team having a new head coach and all new coordinators. Defensively, does the new DC, run cover 2 and value LB more than the Eagles previouslyhave? Does the new OC and Head Coach Sirianni run an offense similar to what they did in Indianapolis or does he draft to build the system that he wants to run?

I have grouped the prospects by position and my rankings are done with thought into the fit with the Philadelphia Eagles.

CB, WR, LB, C, S, DT, OL, RB, TE –

The players in BOLD are the ones I feel underrated at each position!

The positions aren’t in any order, but the prospects at each position are.

Offense:

QB- Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Justin Fields, Trey Lance, Mac Jones, mid round favorite Kellen Mond

WR — Ja’Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, Rashad Bateman, Kadarius Toney, Terrace Marshall Jr. , Elijah Moore, Rondale Moore, Amari Rodgers, Amon-Ra St Brown

RB- Najee Harris, Travis Etienne, Kenneth Gainwell, Javonte Williams, Trey Sermon, my mid round favorite Chuba Hubbard, Khalil Herbert, Michael Carter, Jermar Jefferson

TE- There is Kyle Pitts, then everyone else. Pat Freiermuth, Brevin Jordan, Tommy Tremble, Mason, Hunter Long and my late round favorite Cary Angeline

C- Creed Humphrey , Landon Dickerson, Josh Myers, Quinn Meinerz , Drake Jackson, Kendrick Green, Trey Hill, Michael Menet and late rounder Jimmy Morrissey.

OG — Alijah Vera Tucker, Wyatt Davis Trey Smith, Ben Cleveland, Deonte, Brown, Mid Rd to late round favorites, Aaron Banks, Robert Hainsey and late round favorite Jack Anderson

OT- Penei Sewell and everyone else, Christian Darrisaw, Rashawn Slater, Teven Jenkins, Liam Eichenberg , Dillon Radunz, Samuel Cosmi, Alex Leatherwood, Jalen Mayfield

Defense:

CB — Caleb Farley, Jaycee Horn, Patrick Surtain II, Greg Newsome II , Elijah Molden, Eric Stokes, Kelvin Joseph, Ifeatu Melifonwu, Assante Samuel Jr. , Tay Gowan, Tyson Campbell and mid round favorite, Paulson Adebo

LB — Micah Parsons, Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Zaven Collin, Nick Bolton, Jabril Cox, Jamin Davis, Barron Browining, Chazz Surratt, Dylan Moses, Pete Werner, and later round favorite Tony Fields II

S — Richie Grant, Trevon Moehrig, Hamsah Nasirildeen, Javon Holland, Andre Cisco, Jamar Johnson, Talanoa Hufanga, Ar’Darius Washington, Caden Sterns and my favorite late rd choice, Paris Ford

DE — Kwity Paye, Azeez Ojulari , Gregory Rousseau, Jaelan Phillips, Jayson Oweh. Carlos Basham Jr. , Dayo Odeyingbo, Quincy Roche, Shaka Toney, and late rd Jonathan Cooper

DT — Christian Barmore, Levi Onwuzurike, Daviyon Nixon, Marlon Tuipulotu, Jay Tufele , Alim McNeill, Tommy Togiai, Jaylen Twyman and later round favorite, Darius Stills

The Eagles, armed with 11 draft picks, need to hit on a lot of players with upside and starting ability at many positions. I would be surprised if they end up using all 11 picks as I expect Howie to be active with trades and moving around the board.I cant see a scenario in which they don’t come out of this draft without two CB, one WR, a center to be a future replacement for Jason Kelce, a linebacker inside of the first five rounds, a QB to develop, a change of pace RB that can also return kicks, and both a DT and DE. I think they end up using 9 of their 11 picks. I’d be also be shocked if they don’t attempt to get into the first round for a second selection, at the expense of pick 37 or possibly even trading one of next years first round picks to make it happen. This is a rebuild, re-tool year, but they also plan on competing and believe they could make a run at the division.

Chuba is a very good inside runner and has proven to be a QB’s best friend with his pass catching ability. I think he would be a dream paired with Hurts when they run RPO’s, RB Kenneth Gainwell out of Memphis would also be a great selection here, but its less likely he falls this far in the draft.

I have DeVonta Smith as underrated as he has fallen in mocks lately. I still believe he is the 2nd best WR in the draft, even though I do not expect him to be the second WR drafted. He could fall to fourth overall, in which case the Eagles should select him.

Mock One, without trades AKA Howie standing pat

RD1 pick 12- Devonta Smith WR Alabama

RD2 pick 37- Eric Stokes CB Georgia

RD3 pick 70- Jamin Davis LB Kentucky

RD3 pick 84- Deonte Brown G Alabama

RD4 pick 123- Tay Gowan CB Central Florida

RD5 150- Chuba Hubbard RB Pittsburgh

RD6 189- Jimmy Morrissey C Pittsburgh

RD6 224-Jonathan Cooper DE Ohio State

RD6 225- Tre Norwood S Oklahoma

RD7 234- Cary Angeline TE North Carolina State

RD7 240- Khyiris Tonga DT BYU

Where Is Hurts In His Development?

Data shows that around this is the time of the season where a team’s performance starts stabilizing and they are what they are so I have been thinking a lot about some of my beliefs leading up to season.

Where Hurts Stands in His Development

I’ve been more bullish on Hurts than what consensus was after last year with the following points in past articles:

  • His league-worst accuracy using Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE) was going to improve as his CPOE in college was very high and usually is a stable metric college to pros.
  • He has a good value floor as measured by Expected Points Added (EPA), largely because of his value rushing and ability to generate explosive plays.
  • His turnovers worried me as like CPOE, they have followed him from college to his rookie season.
  • Watching all of his dropbacks last year, his issues were primarily two areas: releasing the ball late which led to his accuracy issues and too many bad decisions.

Where is he now that he is at 330 career attempts, a full offseason to prepare, better weapons, and a (slightly) healthier offensive line?

Accuracy

I looked at Hurts’ CPOE and EPA by passing depth, comparing him in 2021 to 2020:

Few main points:

  • In 2020, Hurts weirdly was much more efficient at longer distances and really struggled on shorter throws.
  • He has improved in most areas in 2021, only dropping on 20+ yard attempts.
  • I believed his accuracy would improve and it has, going from -8.3% in 2020 (second worst in the league above only Jake Luton) to a slightly above average 2.3% in 2021, right with Herbert, Matt Ryan, Matt Stafford, and (somehow) Carson Wentz.
  • And, we weren’t all imagining things with all the screen passes last week – Hurts’ attempts at or behind the LOS are up almost 7% with all other passing depth attempts down.

Now, comparing Hurts vs. the league, two things stick out:

  • He still trails the league in EPA at all passing depths except at or behind the LOS.
  • His efficiency numbers in the short range (1-10 yards) are a problem, especially since these are over 40% of his attempts.

And his issues here have been consistent. Of Hurts’ 10 games (his starts plus the Green Bay game he relieved Wentz in), he has only had one game – the Kansas City game in week 4 – where his 1-10 yard CPOE was positive. The one positive is his CPOE, while still bad, is better than last year’s, going from -23.57% to -5.87%.

I re-watched a lot of Hurts’ 1-10 yard pass attempts and some of this is on the receivers – all 6 of the Eagles registered drops this year came in the 1-10 yard range (think about Reagor’s drop in the opening drive last week). But, a lot of this is still on Hurts. This is where his issues on quicker release and better timing come in.

Hurts’ worst rated play by CPOE this season is this pass in the Falcons game to DeVonta on 3rd and 4 on the Atlanta 36 where he slightly threw it behind DeVonta. It led to the an attempt on 4th down which they did not convert. If Hurts is accurate with the throw, the Eagles pick up the first and would be expected to score, at least a field goal.

Hurts improving his timing and accuracy on these 1-10 yard attempts is going to be what separates him from a QB in the 12-15 range vs. a top 10 QB. If you compare Hurts to the top-10 ranked QBs this year, he compares favorably except for the 1-10 yard range throws where he is -0.264 EPA per play worse and has an 8.6% lower CPOE. Being in the top 10 is the goal, if Hurts stays middle of the league the Eagles will have a tough decision.

He has to get better here. Not to overstate it, but this is what will determine his success. Sirianni – and all offenses – run through this 1-10 yard passing range. Explosive plays are necessary, and he has no issue there, but he cannot underperform on what is 40+ percent of the passing game.

Hurts’ Mobility

I said I think Hurts has a good floor on his value because of his mobility and that continues to show. Compared to all rushers in the league, Hurts is 11th in cumulative EPA and 3rd in EPA per play. This is for all rushers, not just QBs.

But mobility is not just rushing, it is creating time in the pocket and Hurts also continues to add value here. First, here is time to throw vs. passing grade while under pressure:

Hurts grades as well under pressure as he does in a clean pocket, which is part good, part bad (to the above point on his 1-10 yard accuracy). But this chart shows the value of the QBs that can extend plays with Hurts grouped in with Josh Allen, Mahomes, Lamar, and Kyler Murray freakishly high this year.

Looking at his explosive play rate and turnovers, Hurts has improved here and again shines under pressure. Below shows big time throw rate vs. turnover worthy play rate while under pressure. Again, Hurts shows up with the best QBs in the league, making defenses pay for pressuring him.

Tampa Bay is 14th in the league in coverage grades, but looking at their coverage vs. various depths of throws, they are best at or behind the line of scrimmage (7th in league) and over 20 yards (9th in league). In both the 1-10 and 11-20 range, they are 21st. Lavonte David being out is a loss as he is their best graded LB and has the 2nd most coverage snaps on their defense.

Hurts needs to show an improved ability in the short, timing throws and has an opportunity this week.

What is Wrong (and Right) With the Eagles Defense

I didn’t post last week after the Cowboys game because I don’t want to be over-reactionary on a bad game (and because I also had a few vacation days away). There is so much justified focus on the Eagles defense after the first 4 games and I wanted to look into it deeper.

In prior posts, I looked at each of the defensive units and made the following points:

  • The Eagles have invested in DL but I’ve been worried on their run defense for a while. Over the past 5 years, the Eagles run defense was rated between 10-19 in the league with a noticeable regression in 2020.
    (See “Analytics of the Eagles DL Draft History” for more detail)
  • The Eagles well known underinvestment in LB has shown when looking at LB value vs. defensive DVOA. But one thing often overlooked is a lot of the value in the Eagles run defense up until 2019 came from Malcolm Jenkins who was effectively a LB (and a very good one). Once he left, the LBs became more exposed and the run defense took a hit.
    (See “Analytics of the Eagles LB Draft History” for more detail)
  • Howie’s biggest draft issue is undervaluing corner which is absolutely a premium position today (second to only quarterback). Gannon has shown to improve secondaries in MIN and IND, but he also had more talent there.
    (See “What Can We Expect from Gannon’s Scheme” for mote detail)

We are almost a quarter of the way through the 2021 season but with a new coaching staff, a lot still can and will change, but I am less concerned with the game-to-game swings and more concerned with the underlying performance and talent. And not much so far in 2021 has changed my views. Here are my top thoughts on the Eagles defense:

Teams are exposing our personnel weaknesses in the run game

I always have to caveat when I talk about the run game as the broader analytics community would never run because rushes have lower expected value than passes and are, in aggregate, negative EPA. And this is true as you would much rather be good against the pass than the run. But the Eagles run defense has crossed the line to being a problem.

The Eagles are allowing a positive EPA on rushes
They are one of only 10 defenses actually allowing a positive EPA per play (0.006) on opposing team rushes. Yes, passes have even greater value, but it is rare to allow a positive EPA on rushes.

The Eagles are allowing a lot of explosive runs
They are 27th in the league in number of explosive rushes allowed with 11 through 4 games. They are tied with the 49ers and only the Chiefs, Raiders, Cardinals, Texans, and Jets have allowed more. (This post isn’t about their offensive play calling but I am sure nobody missed that the 49ers and Chiefs are worse than the Eagles here but we still refused to run against both…)

Teams are exploiting the Eagles scheme and personnel on the outside
The Eagles defense is seeing a much higher percentage of outside runs than the league average, with almost half of rushes against them being wide, and giving up 0.207 EPA per play on outside runs, ranked 26th in the league (for a defense, a lower EPA is better). As a point of reference, the league average EPA per pass is 0.192. Above I said the analytics community hates runs because they have negative EPA and always less value than passes but the Eagles are allowing more value on outside runs than the average league pass.

The Eagles are also 30th in the league with an average depth of tackle of 5.37 yards. While our EDGEs Barnett and Sweat are our top two highest graded run defenders with very good average depth of tackles (2.9 and 2.0 respectively) and you would think they are handling outside runs, the problem is our EDGEs aren’t volume run stoppers, recording a tackle on only 8 of 112 run defense snaps. But the Eagles are highest in the league for how many tackles their linebackers, safeties, and corners make at 75 of their 112 run defense snaps.

Part of this is scheme with our corners and safeties so deep, part is regression of Fletch, and part is weaknesses in our back seven. But so far this year our opponents are running outside of our defensive front and winning at it.

The pass defense is being dinked to death

Gannon’s defense is meant to take away explosive plays
Gannon has gotten a lot of criticism this week, some deserved as he has been slow or resistant to change and had some head-scratching personnel decisions, but, like Hurts, he needs to be given more time as the Eagles don’t have the personnel to do what he wants. Gannon’s defense prioritizes limiting explosive plays which is where most defenses are going and it is analytically correct. A single explosive play on a drive triples the chances of a score.

The second chart above in the run defense section shows that the Eagles are successful here so far – they are tied with Arizona for 2nd in the league in fewest explosive passes allowed, behind only Buffalo. This is what we want the defense to be.

But the point of limiting explosive plays is making long drives difficult which the Eagles are not doing
The Eagles are 29th in the league, allowing an average drive length of 8.9 plays, ahead of the Rams, Giants, and Football Team (when can we start calling them the Red Hogs?). Last year the Eagles defense was 7th best in the league in drive length allowed.

The Eagles opponents, whether by design or taking advantage of off-coverage, are living off of short passing. The Eagles force the 3rd lowest average depth of target in the league behind Buffalo and Tamp Bay, but are 29th in the league in EPA per pass play allowed (ahead of only Detroit and Jacksonville).

And the linebackers show up as an issue again
The Eagles linebackers are heavily targeted by opposing quarterbacks, rankings 31st in the league in number of targets and receptions allowed, 2nd most targets in the league.

Gannon caused an uproar on Tuesday when explaining why Eric Wilson was on Tyreek Hill last week he said they aren’t a dime defense “yet”. While most saw this as inflexibility, it may be him choosing Eric Wilson in coverage over Zech or Josiah Scott. Not playing dime makes no sense to me but those aren’t great choices and we have to assume Gannon knows Zech and Josiah’s readiness better than we do. I still think it is a mistake but it isn’t like he was sitting Jaire.

Looking at Gannon’s recent past in Indy, he has used dime but had odd personnel usages alternating between little to no dime to one of the higher in the league (data from FootballOutsiders). Gannon was not coordinator in MIN or IND so not sure how much control he had on the personnel usage though. And in Indy, he also had Darius Leonard:

  • 2020 (IND) – Last in the league, running dime 0% of the time
  • 2019 (IND) – 11th in the league, running dime 20% of the time
  • 2018 (IND) – 9th in the league usage of dime at 20%
  • 2017 (MIN) – 28th in the league at 0%

On the defensive side, Howie has only invested on the line and ignored everything else so Gannon has what he has to work with. Against Kansas City you saw an adjustment with Slay both traveling with Tyreek Hill after halftime and playing much more press (not sure why the game didn’t start this way). As bad as they have been these past few weeks, the Eagles defense is allowing fewer explosive plays and a lower EPA per pass play than last year. My biggest issue so far is there is little adjustment and less disguising looks.

And an updated 2022 mock!

If you have gotten this far, just a quick 3-round 2022 mock with where my current thinking is. These are extremely anti-Howie picks so not saying it is what will happen, it just is what should happen building on the above. For this I am using MockDraftDatabase’s simulator which gives the Eagles picks 4, 6, and 9 in the first. Just speculating, but if Howie has three higher firsts, I think he trades one of them down but for now I will go with what the simulator uses.

  • R1-4 CB Kaiir Elam – I will believe Howie takes a corner high when I see it, but corner remains the Eagles biggest go-forward need as both Slay and Nelson are likely gone by 2023. I don’t care about the Eagles league-leading zone usage – Kaiir leads college football in press snaps and has allowed no completions in press coverage.
  • R1-6 S Kyle Hamilton – Another one Howie would never do but Gannon’s defense needs playmakers and the Eagles only have one actual safety right now in McLeod who is a free agent after this year. Kyle is bonkers good and would be somebody that could be moved all over on defense.
  • R1-9 EDGE Aidan Hutchinson – Finally a Howie pick… I considered an offensive linemen here as that is a need, but Aidan is an amazing disruptor and has been unblockable this year at Michigan. Barnett will be gone this year and replenishing the line is a need.
  • R2-40 LB Devin Lloyd – I really wanted to take a linemen here but thought I couldn’t write a thousand words on why the LBs are awful and not take Lloyd here. The Eagles have a ton of “potentials” at LB and I have hope that Davion can become a solid LB, but even if he does emerge, they need another LB.
  • R3-71 OL Jamaree Salyer – Much later than I wanted an offensive linemen, but Georgia’s current LT can play across the line but is probably a guard in the NFL. He has not allowed a sack in 615 dropbacks across 4 years.

A very defense and secondary heavy draft (if I mocked more rounds, I would have a second corner in there). There are plenty of needs and you can argue the ordering or picks, but investing in the back 7 is what needs to happen. Howie’s philosophy of investing in the DL and de-prioritizing everything behind it is exactly wrong. Good pass coverage has a higher correlation to better defensive EPA allowed than a good pass rush does (analysis from Eric Eager and George Chahrouri here) which is so counter-intuitive to the Eagles way. Sure, a pass rush is great and is needed, but offenses are scheming around quick pressure and, as shown above, forcing short throws isn’t really working for the Eagles so far.

Daring and Driven, Gainwell Does it All for Family

Kenneth Gainwell has always put family first. His family means everything to him. He doesn’t just say it, he backs it up with his actions, he lives it. When Kenneth played every down with everything he had in Mississippi and Memphis and then looked into the stands to find his brother Curtis, he did it for family. He did it to honor his older brother.  “What he’s gone through, what he’s had to deal with, has only made me work harder, I’m playing for the both of us. To find him (Curtis Jr) in the stadium every time I scored just to see his smile. Every time he smiled it made me smile,” Kenneth continued  “I’m just thankful to still have him still here on this earth. I’m proud of him, he’s working real hard.” 

When Kenny was 13 his older brother, Curtis, was attempting to become a Southern Miss walk on for the football team when he suffered a life altering stroke while weightlifting. ”I had a headache, I didn’t feel good that day. I knew there was something wrong. I didn’t know it was gonna be a stroke,” Curtis Gainwell recalled in an interview with ESPN. “If I didn’t get to the hospital in time, I could’ve been gone.” He was given three life saving surgeries in one day to stop the brain bleed and has since undergone four brain surgeries. Curtis then endured the daunting task of learning how to walk and talk again. Kenneth, who always looked up to his big brother, was motivated and given strength by Curtis’ resolve. “I said bro feel my pain,” Curtis recalls. “(Kenneth) said I feel it bro, I saw you in that bed, wanting to get out that bed and walk.” Kenneth takes that to the field every time he plays.

What the Philadelphia Eagles are getting in Kenneth Gainwell, another versatile Memphis playmaker – The Athletic

And when Kenneth chose to opt out of the 2020 Collegiate season while playing for Memphis just six days before the season opener, once again, he did it for family. Kenneth’s father Curtis Gainwell Sr. spoke to The Commercial Appeal in August of 2020.  “He (Kenneth) decided that he didn’t want to take any chances with the coronavirus going on. You don’t want to get out there and get sick and bring it to us, his brother or his teammates,”. The Gainwell’s had already lost four members of their family to this terrible virus. Kenneth explained “You know my family passing away, so it was a tough, tough decision. I love football. So it was really a tough decision to do. So I just had to do what was best for the fam.”

Gainwell was leaving college, but not football. He had set his eyes on the NFL draft. In November of 2020 Kenneth left his family and hometown behind to train and prepare for the NFL alone in Orlando Florida. ”So, basically, the next week after I opted out I started training and I’ve been working out ever since. It’s been basically six months for me working out straight, non-stop. I’ve just been putting in the work, staying down, staying healthy throughout this process.”

He knew he had one amazing season on tape and that if he worked hard, he would get a chance at being drafted in the NFL. As always, his family was at the forefront of his mind. “It will be real special. I’m just ready to see their faces once my name gets called. It’s going to make me want to work even harder, because they had that dream too. I get to live it. They get to live it. So, I’m just excited.”

Kenneth grew up in Yazoo City Mississippi and went to Yazoo City High School. The same HS as his cousin, current Philadelphia Defensive Tackle Fletcher Cox.  He was a three year starter at QB for the Panthers. He threw for 3,682 yards with 32 passing touchdowns. Gainwell added another 4,730 yards rushing and 75 rushing touchdowns. He even returned a kickoff to add another touchdown to his impressive TD total of 108. Kenny was named Class 3A Mr. Football his Senior year of High School as he led the Panthers to their first ever Class 3A state title championship game appearance, while compiling an impressive  14–1 record. 

After graduating in 2018,  Kenneth chose to attend Memphis over Ole Miss. He only played 4 games as a true freshman (he was playing behind future NFL pros Darrell Henderson, Patrick Taylor and Tony Pollard) and decided to red shirt the rest of the season and focus on training.

When he returned in the summer of 2019 it was apparent his hard work had paid off. Gainwell became the feature back, starting 13 of 14 games while rushing for 1,459 yards and 13 scores on 231 carries (6.3 per carry avg). He also was also a valuable weapon as a receiver (51 receptions, 610 yards, 12.0 average, three touchdowns). In fact, his game was was so good that NFL RB  Antonio Gibson only received 33 total carries. At seasons end Kenneth was named first-team All-American Athletic Conference and the AAC Rookie of the Year. The ascent to the NFL was finally at hand. All that was left to do was wait and see where he would end up.

Former Memphis RB Gainwell drafted No. 150 overall by Philadelphia - Memphis Local, Sports, Business & Food News | Daily Memphian

Gainwell was selected by the Eagles in the 5th round with the 150th overall pick. By most draft expert estimations this was a late round steal. The dual threat RB was projected to go as high as the second and was easily in almost every mock as a third. Kenneth was grateful his dream to reach the NFL had just become a reality.

“My heart stopped beating for a little bit you know,” he told Sky Sports when he saw the Philly area code on his phone on draft day. “Just seeing the call pop up on my phone, my heart stopped beating and I didn’t know what to say really. I was like ‘I’m just ready to come ball, ready to put in that work’. I’ve been dreaming about this for a long time and getting an opportunity to play for a team that I’m a fan of, I’m really a fan of the Eagles now I’m going to be a student and a guy that is going to show love to the fans. It’s exciting.” He stated he spent his childhood studying the footwork of LeSean Shady McCoy and Darren Sproles, amongst others. He was ready to add his name to the Eagles family of running backs.

Philadelphia was just as excited drafting Kenneth as he was of being selected by them. He immediately  impressed in training camp by not only showing everyone in person what was already on tape (the receiving and rushing threat) but, at a reported 5-foot-9 200 pounds, he was standing up tall in blocks. “I’m a rare breed,” he said. “I’m a different one.”

His ability as a receiver might have been what attracted the Eagles to Gainwell. But his willingness to block will be what earns him consistent playing time. “Yeah, he had to show that he could protect.” HC Nick Sirianni said. “Because we know his ability as a pass catcher. We’ve seen his ability as a pass catcher. We’ve seen it even more in practice and all the different drills we do and everything, He’s a tough kid. When guys are tough, and they like football and they really love football and they have talent. Those guys reach their potential.”

”I’m bringing an attitude that is real different, I’m bringing a talent that I feel the Eagles don’t have, a running back you can legit put in the slot and run any routes, a legit guy you can throw all over the field and that can dominate anywhere on the field, that’s what I feel like I bring, I feel dangerous in the backfield, I feel dangerous in the slot, kind of both spots. I’m an athlete, I dominate everywhere, anywhere they put me even if it’s on special teams, everywhere on the field.”

Kenneth has wasted little time showing the world what he could do in the NFL. In the season opener he was on the field during the two-minute drill at the end of the first half against the Falcons as they went down and scored a touchdown and a two point conversion. He then scampered for an 8 yard TD run of his own in the third quarter.

 “He has the best hands in our running back room,” Miles Sanders said. “That’s his thing — the two-minute drill. That’s it.” 

He showed off those hands again week four against the reigning AFC Champion Kansas City Chiefs with a very productive day. 6 receptions for 58 yards and 3 carries for 31 yards and a TD.

In a season that has started off with its shares of hardships, Gainwell has been a silver lining. Through the first 4 games he has hauled in 13 receptions for 114 yards and rushed 19 times for 84 yards and two scores. Per Pro Football Focus he is currently ranked the top graded overall rookie running back. 

Now that he is where he always wanted to be, and playing where he has always wanted to play, not a thing has changed. He’s still the same Kenneth Gainwell that is driven to succeed and daring on the football field. He is also, you guessed it, still doing it all for family.

”I plan on putting my family in situations to be great.” 

Nobody is doubting that he will.

David 10/5/21

Follow me @PHLEagleNews

5 Statistics Before the Eagles / Cowboys Week 3 Game

Just a quick post ahead of the Eagles-Cowboys Monday Night game. I had the Eagles modeled as a slightly better team than the Cowboys this year and I still believe the Eagles roster is more balanced. But they are pretty evenly matched (more on that below) and Dak is playing at a higher level than I expected after his ankle and shoulder injuries. I had this game down as a loss which seems to have me with the consensus after I was on the other side of consensus the past two weeks, thinking the Eagles would win both. If I had to say what will be the determining factor and how the Eagles could win, I think it comes down to my first stat on explosive plays.

18 Explosive Plays

The Cowboys defense has given up 18 explosive plays, ranking them 27th in the league with 2 explosive runs and 16 passes in their first two games. And these weren’t all Tom Brady in their week 1 shootout when they allowed 10 explosive passes… the Chargers had 6 in week two.

The Eagles are 3rd best in the league, allowing only 8 explosive plays (4 runs and 4 passes) over two weeks. Of course the Eagles were helped by playing a bad Falcons team and Jimmy Garoppolo who isn’t usually a downfield threat, but there was still offensive talent (Calvin Ridley, Kyle Pitts, Deebo Samuel).

The Eagles will need to continue to limit explosive plays this week as CeeDee Lamb is 4th in the league with 5 explosive receptions.

8.2 Yards per Reception

The Eagles passing defense is 1st in the league in average air yards per pass attempted at 4.6 yards and 1st again in yards gained per completed pass at 8.2. Again, this is partly a factor of Matt Ryan having zero time to throw in week 1 and playing Jimmy G in week 2.

But this also shows how Gannon’s defense is being played, which we saw in week 2 – they are playing off, forcing shorter throws, and attempting to limit gains. And right now it is giving the Eagles the 7th best passing defense in the league based on passing EPA allowed. Gannon spoke about this this week:

We’ve talked about it since we’ve gotten here, is explosive plays is a winning stat, winning or losing stat, as takeaways are… what you’re seeing is guys being in the correct spot and playing the coverages the correct way. And, it really comes down to execution in the call and we’re executing those calls not to allow explosive passes.”

6-0 Turnovers Generated

Widely talked about this week is both the Cowboys leading the league in takeaways with 6 (4 interceptions and 2 fumble recoveries) as well as the Eagles not having a single turnover yet in 2021. Most people in the analytics community will view turnovers as a very unstable metric, ripe for regression. I partly agree as it depends on the reason for the turnover. A lot of interceptions and fumbles are flukes, but turnover ratio year-over-year isn’t as unstable or random as most believe. And this is because sometimes a QB just throws more interceptions.

Turnovers will regress to some degree for both teams at some point… the Eagles had 3 chances last week and just didn’t execute and the Cowboys will not keep a pace of 3 turnovers per week. The Eagles are putting themselves in position for turnovers with pressure from the DL and plays on the ball in the secondary, the turnovers will come.

But one source I believe in is Trevon Diggs (a rare Cowboy that I love and wish was an Eagle). He has 2 interceptions already this year and all 3 of his interceptions last year came against the Eagles, including 1 vs. Hurts in the last game. His interceptions aren’t cheap ones either – his last against Justin Herbert is one of the better plays on a ball you will see. Often made fun of by Eagles fans, Diggs has improved greatly in year two, allowing a 43.2 passer rating against Brady and Herbert.

48% PRWR, 38% PBWR

The Eagles and Cowboys are similar in a lot of areas as shown below with PFF’s ratings across offense and defense. And it’s the same story if you look at EPA – the Cowboys and Eagles are 5th and 6th respectively on rush offense, 14th and 12th in pass offense, 11th and 16th in run defense.

The two areas to point out are the Cowboys pass rush and pass blocking. The Cowboys are 14th in the league with a 48% Pass Rush Win Rate (PRWR), defined as beating a block within 2.5 seconds on a pass rush. But this is before all of their injuries that have decimated their DL as they enter this game – DeMarcus Lawrence (top-rated DL), Dorance Armstrong (3rd-rated DL), and Carlos Watkins (he’s not very good). Add in LB Keanu Neal who is out with Covid and these losses account for 19 of the Cowboys 39 pressures generated this year. This comes at a good time for the Eagles as we are also down two linemen with Brooks and Mailata both out. Hopefully this can be a mismatch for the Eagles but with our injuries and uncertainty on how Dillard will play, it at least avoids a potential mess.

On the offensive side, the Dallas OL is generally viewed as a strength but they are last in the league with a 38% Pass Block Win Rate (PBWR), defined as holding blocks on dropbacks for at least 2.5 seconds. And like the Eagles, they are shorthanded this week with RT La’el Collins (third best rated OL) suspended.

Which brings me to my last stat…

1-0

The Cowboys do lead the Eagles, and lead the league, in the number (1) of (alleged) bribes attempted to NFL drug testers with La’el Collins being suspended this week. Cowboys gotta Cowboy…

Fly Eagles Fly!

Jalen Hurts and the Deep Ball

A lot has been made this past week of Jalen Hurts’ ability to throw the deep ball with questions on both his arm strength and accuracy. He had a couple of deep passes to DeVonta Smith in the SF game that were not good, throwing late/ underthrowing DeVonta on two of them.

But when looking at Jalen’s passing stats, he has actually been very good at deep passes on almost any metric you want to look at. His NFL stats below need a huge, obligatory caveat that Hurts’ numbers fall into the “small sample size” category with just over 200 total passing attempts, but he was good with deep passing in college as well.

Deep passing stats for NFL QBs

Below are passing stats from 2017-2021 for NFL QBs. I filtered to QBs with at least 400 attempts but also included the recent rookie QBs from the past several years. Passing depth is defined by air yards – a 5 yard pass with a 50 yard YAC run will count as a 5 yard pass so that this measures accuracy and value based on the depth of target. Deep passes as defined as 25 air yards or more.

Hurts shows up extremely well in any metric you want to use:

  • 9.8% of his passing attempts were 25 yards or more, which ranks 7th of 58 QBs
  • His 40.0% completion percentage over 25 air yards ranks 5th
  • His 0.916 Expected Points Added (EPA) per deep passing attempt ranks 1st overall by a good margin.
  • His 8.18 Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE), a measure that factors in the difficulty of the throw (air yards, WR separation, distance to nearest pass rusher), and expected completion percentage, ranks 5th overall.

His misses are very visible to us as we watch all of his throws, but his 40% completion percentage is only 5% less than the best. Russell Wilson, known as one of the best deep passers in the league, has a 42.3% deep pass completion percentage, only 2.3% better than Hurts, and nearly equivalent CPOE numbers. To prove Wilson has poorly thrown deep balls, here is one form week 1 against Indy.

Not saying Wilson isn’t good or that Hurts is at his level as Wilson has put these numbers up over many years. But the above pass into double coverage that wasn’t even close happens to all QBs – as Eagles fans, we just notice Hurts’ and can recite every one after games.

Hurts’ college deep passing stats

Hurts’ professional stats are still such a small sample and he could end up regressing (and he will, especially his deep passing EPA which is crazy high right now). But his deep ball stats in college show that his pro stats didn’t come out of nowhere.

YearComp / AttCompletion %TD / IntPasser RatingPFF Grade
Senior – 201933 / 6650.0%10 / 3116.595.4
Junior – 20188 / 1172.7%2 / 1116.598.0
Sophomore – 201712 / 3831.6%4 / 0115.691.8
Freshman – 201621 / 6035.0%4 / 282.691.7

It’s obviously really early in Hurts’ career and it is likely Hurts regresses on the above stats, but the narratives you often see written are sometimes just not supported by data. Last year Hurts had the highest aDOT in the league and there was more conversation on him needing to run a more efficient offense. In week 1, against a defense that schemed taking away deeper passes, Hurts did exactly what was needed, running a very efficient offense. But then his league low aDOT was the point of conversation. Against SF, he went 3 / 8 on deep passes with one of the incompletions being the overturned TD where Reagor stepped out.

I explained in an earlier post here what Hurts needs to improve on which are (1) quicker releases / better timing of throws and (2) limiting turnovers. It isn’t accuracy and it isn’t deep balls / explosive plays.

A Re-Look at What Landon Dickerson Brings Us (and an Update After Week 2)

Adding an update to a post from the end of preseason on what Landon Dickerson brings to the Eagles. Since he is now starting with Brandon Brooks’ injury, I wanted to update with some week 2 data.

Sept 24th Update

Yesterday, Landon had media time and said everything you wanted to hear – he was hard on himself and made it clear that he has very high expectations on himself with his great line of “excuses breeds mediocrity”. A small example, but both Landon and DeVonta are showing why they are the culture-setters that Sirianni was asked about after the draft and everybody thought they would be.

While Landon did not have the day he wanted, the Eagles decision to start him this week is an underappreciated decision. Last year they dealt with so many injuries on the OL but they also played the wrong people, with Pryor and JP both playing when it was clear they weren’t one of the five best linemen. It would have been easy for the Eagles to put Herbig in this week against Dallas and let Landon sit, but it is much more important to the Eagles long-term for Landon to develop. And I stay consistent in my view that Landon is going to be very good for the Eagles, probably sooner than later.

First, his week 2 data:

  • 4.2 pass blocking grade, allowing a hit and 4 hurries on only 19 dropbacks for a 13.2% pressure rate. Not good and not too different than what we saw with Jalen Mayfield in the Falcons opener with his 1.4 pass blocking grade.
  • 59.9 run blocking grade on 13 rushing snaps.

Thomas Peterson (@thomasrp93), who I think most people follow, has a great breakdown of all of Landon’s week 2 snaps here so I won’t try to reproduce that. It’s a good 12 minute watch though and shows Landon’s good and bad.

Landon Pass Protection

Against SF, Hurts was under pressure on almost half of his dropbacks (46.7%) but SF blitzed much more than what they historically have and more than I expected, blitzing on exactly 50% of dropbacks. They had a different game plan than Atlanta, instead of dropping back and taking away big plays, SF wanted to give Hurts less time to throw. Hurts once again did well against the blitz, with a 92.7 passer rating with a lot of that value coming from the 91-yard Quez pass.

While Hurts did well against the pressure, it did give the entire OL and Landon more to handle. Re-watching his snaps, 3 of his 5 pressures allowed came against added pass rushers.

The post below from a few weeks ago speaks to Landon being an elite pass blocker in college, allowing only 11 total pressures in 825 dropbacks in his entire college career, including only 1 sack. In week 2 against the 49ers, Landon struggled much more in pass protection than run blocking with several plays where he was just driven back into Hurts or run around.

Two things on re-watching Landon – first, he was off balance a lot on pass protection and second, he seemed to hesitate and not move quickly when he needed to switch to another pass rusher. Both of these are things you don’t see in his college tape.

Landon made no excuses for himself, and he shouldn’t, but the reality is he didn’t start limited practice until 3 weeks ago and wasn’t a full practice participant until September 15th, four days before the SF game. I am assuming he is fully healthy as he wouldn’t be playing if he wasn’t. But his mistakes – working in concert with Kelce and Lane and being off-balance – are correctable and not what he showed at Alabama.

Landon Run Blocking

Not as much to look at with run blocking as Landon did better here. Below are each of the rush attempts with Brooks and Landon in the game, by rush direction, and the EPA for each rush:

Caveat of this is all super small sample size with only 5 rush attempts to Brooks’ side and 10 to Landon’s (counting rushes to the middle or right side). Purely to the right side, there was a drop off with Dickerson but including both the right and middle, the Eagles actually had a bit more success with Landon in (-0.156 EPA with Landon vs. -0.340 with Brooks). Even throwing out the 2-point conversion run which inflates EPA some, the Eagles had a slightly higher EPA with Landon in the game. Again, too small of a sample but re-watching Landon’s run blocking snaps, he was not perfect but had no hesitation, good push, and was effective getting to the second level on several blocks.

It will be interesting to see Landon this week vs. Dallas after a full week of practice at the RG spot. And remember, in college he was a better pass blocker than run blocker.

Following is the original post on Landon from August 30th

While we wait for the roster to be trimmed to 53, the Eagles made two moves in clearing Rodney McLeod and Landon Dickerson, giving both spots on the 53. We knew McLeod would be rostered but many thought Landon would remain on the NFI list and miss the first 6 games. Rostering Landon means one other player will be cut that could have been kept. Which I don’t care about. If Landon is ready, get him practicing and don’t worry about whichever replacement level player is now cut (Opeta or Rodgers or even Fulgham and JJAW, all of which would probably clear waivers).

We’ve seen more of Landon modeling the Fall 2021 Farmer Collection than practice until today, so I was thinking back to what he brings the Eagles.

He’s an elite pass blocker

In his college career, Landon allowed 1 sack in 825 dropbacks (0.12% of passing snaps), 4 QB hits, and 6 hurries. Lot of great clips of Landon out there, but this is one of my favorites as he and Brandon Thorn talk about how body-blow physical blocks help and the type of nastiness that Landon Brings is something that doesn’t show up in stats and analytics.

And one more that hopefully you haven’t seen which gives DeVonta and Landon love from Brian Baldinger.

He’s also an elite run blocker

The top draft negative on Landon was of course his injury history, but if you dig deeper, some analysts would somewhat reluctantly point to run blocking as a weaker area. PFF had Landon as the top run-blocking center with a 92.8 grade and tied for the most “big-time blocks” in a single season since the stat started being collected in 2014.

He provides the Eagles great flexibility in positions of need

Landon famously played all 5 offensive line positions in college, but nobody assumes he will be an NFL tackle. But the Eagles need a long-term center post-Kelce and have underrated needs at guard. Brooks is amazing but how much longer will he have? And Seumalo is a player I feel too negative on, but I think he is fine… Which is the problem. Isaac was rated the 41st guard (min 400 snaps) last year in overall blocking, he’s better in pass protection than run blocking and depth on a very good team.

It will be interesting to see if Landon is the long-term center or if the Eagles really see him at guard. But he will upgrade the Eagles line at either position once Kelce retires.

What about his injury history?

The Eagles (and all teams) have been burned on injuries bwrote and nobody knows what will happen – the decision to take Landon at 37 is an educated decision by the Eagles, weighing what the player brings, do his injuries reduce that performance level, and do those injuries increase risk of more injuries in the future?

One of my early draft guys was Caleb Farley who teams had to evaluate the same way. For me, Farley’s microdiscectomy was much more concerning than Landon’s ACLs. While there isn’t a ton of retrospective data on elite athletes recovering from microdiscectomies, there’s enough evidence that it both increases future injury incidence and shortens careers. With that, I was out. For ACLs, recovery is good especially for positions like line. Many will worry about reinjuries, but studies show the risk of re-tearing an ACL is only slightly higher (12%) than the risk of any player having their first ACL tear (9%).

Could this turn out badly? Sure. Were there other compelling picks at 37? Yep – JOK, Asante, Creed Humphrey. But if you get an elite lineman in the 2nd, the risk is warranted.

What Went Wrong Against San Francisco and a Frustration-Induced Look at Draft Needs

Warning: This post will cover a lot of ground, probably should be two posts, and is probably a written-too-close-to-the-end-of-the-game frustration-fueled post.

I came into this year saying I would enjoy the season regardless of record. I thought the Eagles would be better than consensus (I still do) but it is a “transition” year no matter what. And we have a ton of draft capital in 2022 that make this a really interesting year regardless of record. But the loss to SF was frustrating because of how the game went.

  • In my preview I said the Eagles should have an advantage vs. their banged up secondary and that didn’t happen. I was impressed with Deommodore who seemed to always be near the catch point but our WRs didn’t seem to be getting open.
  • I also said the Eagles should have turnover opportunities on Garoppolo and they dropped two interceptions (along with a missed fumble recovery). Can’t do that.
  • They did the little things wrong. Zech messing up the punt downing and sliding into the endzone. Barnett’s penalty. Harris’ PI in the endzone that wasn’t going to be complete anyway. And on and on.
  • Bad play calling. Awful set of plays after the Quez deep pass that came away with nothing. But it was way more than that. I am more in favor of the run than the general analytics community but we ran way too much, especially with their secondary. Defense did not disguise and shift.
  • And injuries always come, but frustrating to see Brooks out again and BG go down. Graham is out for the season and we will wait to hear on Brooks, but he could be as well.

SF is a much better team than ATL and, on paper, looked very similar to the Eagles. But they ran an efficient offense, both on the ground and with screen-pass after screen-pass. They did what they needed to and just played better.

I won’t pull too many stats as little of it is instructive or surprising. But here are a few:

  • Hurts was 6th in the league in Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE) in week 1 at +11.6 and fell all the way to 26th this week (not counting tonight’s game) with a -7.97 CPOE. He has to be much better here.
  • Hurts missed some short passes but where he really struggled was on deep balls – below shows Hurts vs. the League on CPOE by depth of target. Hurts is the orange dots and the league is blue, where Hurts is above the blue markers, he was better than the league and where below, worse. The one high orange marker was the Quez pass. I have defended Hurts but it doesn’t take a re-watch to know his deep balls yesterday were almost all short and looked like “wtf, let’s just chuck it up” passes.
  • The Eagles “won” the explosive play battle with 3 runs and 2 passes to SF’s 1 run and 2 passes, but all 3 runs were Hurts scrambling along with the two passes to Quez. Again, why were we running so much?
  • For the second week in a row, our safeties graded poorly, with nobody over 62.0 and allowing over a 100 passer rating (more on that later).
  • If you felt that SF just threw short passes and screen’s, you aren’t wrong. But a lot of people viewed this as “they didn’t do anything, we beat ourselves”. No, Garoppolo played smart and they took advantage of our coverage scheme. Below is Garoppolo’s EPA by depth of target – first, he didn’t throw anything deep, second, he was above league average on everything 20 yards or less.
  • I was impressed with SF’s Deommodore Lenoir during the game and was waiting to see how he graded – he was the top corner in the game at 82.1 on 11 targets! K’Wuan Williams wasn’t great and Josh Norman was awful but we only targeted them four times (counting Norman’s 2 PIs) – how does this make sense?
  • The Eagles DL actually graded pretty poorly with only Hargrave and Sweat grading decent. Run defense again was a problem.

But speaking of our draft capital, Indy and Miami both lost, although shockingly Wentz left the game with a knee injury. Think we will be wondering if that is a 1st or 2nd most of the year.

2022 Draft Needs

Which brings me to updated thoughts on the 2022 draft for the Eagles. I don’t think most people this time of year want to be reading on a draft that is still 7 months away but if you are still reading, thanks. But two reasons. First, I write this more for myself on what college games and players to watch. Second, it is a back-door way to get my friend Matt Alkire (@mattalkire) to read mocks (haha – but seriously, he has great year-round prospect coverage and has turned me on to a few of the players below).

So much will change between now and April, but I think one thing that won’t is what the Eagles priority needs are. And most of these won’t change based on how the team plays this year – a lot of our needs are created because of player age and contracts.

My draft priorities in order are:

1. Another offensive linemen
Even if Brooks is not done for the year, his cap hit almost triples from $7M this year to around $19M a year through 2024 – the Eagles will need to make a hard decision here and move on. And maybe Kelce surprises us and comes back, but he likely retires. The Eagles need a center/guard now and will need to think about an eventual RT replacement, but the good thing is Howie prioritizes the lines so we will probably be aligned here.

2. Two corners, one of them has to be taken high
Nelson is on a one year and the Eagles will have the cap space to bring him back but he will either get much more expensive or regress. I doubt the Eagles move on from Slay in 2022 because they need him and there is $7.5M of dead cap next year, but he’s probably not here in 2023. Corners are almost never ready their rookie season and it is well past time we invest there. We will see what Howie does here as he has never viewed CB worthy of high picks.

3. Defensive line, anywhere but need another disrupter
Think they could go DT or Edge, Edge will be a bigger need next year and is a deeper class in 2022. Barnett won’t be extended, Milton can play inside or out, maybe Tarron develops but he’s a late round guy, BG will be coming back from injury.

4. A safety that can cover
I’ve not focused enough on safety but it is a huge need. Who knows how long McLeod will continue to play or play well and he’s only signed through 2022. Harris is only signed this year and has regressed. K’Von has a role but isn’t the cover guy we need. The safety group isn’t good in a time when the importance of safeties is growing.

5. A linebacker
This could go higher but we need to see what we have with all of the young guys here in Davion, Shaun Bradley, Patrick Johnson, and JaCoby Stevens (I know he’s on the practice squad but I will retain some hope there just because of his athletic profile). Eric Wilson is on a one-year and is a liability against the run.

6. Another wide receiver
Not something I would invest in high unless the value is just really something they couldn’t pass on, but think of this as getting another WR that replaces Ward or JJAW.

I’m leaving QB off here because I believe Hurts will be good, but this is what throws the entire thing out if the Eagles need to get a QB. I wouldn’t draft a TE – assuming Ertz or Goedert will be here (but not both) and they will see what Tyree Jackson is this year. Same with RB unless it is a late round flyer.

Mock

I used PFN’s simulator for a 5-round mock and, with Caron’s latest injury, assumed we have Indy’s 2nd rounder. PFN has the Eagles own pick being the 7th pick in each round which I think is too high, but what the heck I left it.

R1-7: Kenyon Green, OG Texas A&M
There is near zero percent chance I don’t take Green or Linderbaum with one of these top picks. Mailata, Seumalo, Dickerson, Lane and one of these two goes a long way to setting up the Eagles OL for the future.
Other options: C Tyler Linderbaum, CB Kaiir Elam, CB Andrew Booth, DT DeMarvin Leal

R1-19: Trent McDuffie, CB Washington
The more I’ve watched the top CBs, the more and more I like McDuffie. All of Stingley, Elam, and Booth were all gone by the 19th pick but McDuffie is ridiculously athletic and may be the most complete corner in the draft. While we probably all have PTSD on Washington corners, McDuffie is different – he’s highly athletic, allowing a 39.6 passer rating this year. At 5’11”, he may drop some as the league wants taller corners.
Other options: EDGE Zach Harrison, S Brandon Joseph

R2-39: Adam Anderson, EDGE Georgia
Crazy fast and has been the most disruptive player on the UGA defense, generating pressures on 25% of his snaps. A bit light at 230 lbs but would be a needed addition with speed on the edge for the Eagles.
Other options: LB Devin Lloyd (went 1 pick before me and a player I would love to have), EDGE Nik Bonitto, WR John Metchie

R2-52: Lewis Cine, S Georgia
Back-to-back from UGA to take a hard-hitting free safety that can do it all. Cine’s projections are all over the board, anywhere from being picked in the 40s to low 100s. He is consistently graded high across coverage, run defense, and tackling.
Other options: EDGE Kingsley Enagbare, DT Jordan Davis

R3-71: Thayer Munford, OT Ohio State
This would be a longer-term pick. Played both LT and LG and gives the Eagles some depth. Driscoll showed some potential but has been hurt constantly and they are cross-training Dillard but nobody can count of that to work out. The only other tackle on their depth chart behind Lane and Jordan is Brett Toth. Munford is the highest graded tackle vs. Power 5 defenses.
Other options: CB Josh Jobe, WR Jalen Tolbert

R4-107: Jermaine Waller, CB Virginia Tech
A longer corner at 6’1″ with ball skills, he had a very good 2019 playing opposite Caleb Farley and a down 2020 due to injuries. He has the athleticism and size, but needs to show it in 2021 and is off to a good start – 3 interceptions and a 64.7 passer rating allowed in 3 games this year. If he continues to have a strong season, he will most likely move up given his size.

R5-139: Reggie Roberson, WR SMU
At this point of the draft, the chance of getting a starter is pretty low and it’s best to look for draft inefficiencies. Roberson’s injury history has knocked him down a lot from where he would likely be looked at. He does not look to be fully back this year yet but he has a lot going for him – good speed, good release especially at this point in the draft, and had production with over 20 yards per reception last year and 5 touchdowns in only 22 receptions before getting injured. With Smith, Reagor, and Quez, somebody like Roberson would not be needed to immediately perform.

Take this for what it’s worth and I’ll change my picks a hundred times, but these are the positions and players I’m watching this college season.