With the Eagles surely looking to go defensive line in the 2023 draft, one of my favorites at the top of the 1st is Texas Tech's Tyree Wilson. A day-one run defender with incredible size and freakish range, he has a ton of upside as a pass rusher. Tyree can be a line wrecker. Read more
A sincere thank you to everybody for the engagement and readership this year - we truly are the best sports fan base in the world. A look back at our top 10 stories for 2022. Happy New Year! Read more
The Eagles are fully expected to go DL in the 2023 draft, but that may be a lot of team's plan... a look at who could be BPA for the Eagles if DL does have a historic run. Some obvious ones and one or two potentially crazy picks. Read more
While not an often-prioritized position so far for the 2023 draft, both CJ and Epps are free agents and the Eagles could look to the draft. If they do, they should go back to UGA where senior Chris Smith II is everything they look for in a safety and my favorite in this class. Read more
“People had doubts on me. People still have doubts on me. That turns me up. It lights a fire in me. It does something to me, because I know I’ll prove you wrong.” Read more
Yes, it will always be a passing league but there are reasons that rushing is not only important, but growing in importance. And by the way, the Eagles are historically good at it. Read more
A look at which QBs most often take late-half drives and convert into scores. Jalen Hurts stands at the top with other names we would all expect like Brady and Allen. Read more
Reed intercepted the first pass ever targeted at him in the NFL. (Thrown by sure NFL Hall Of Famer Aaron Rodgers no less)
The former MTSU standout and current NFL rookie then exclaimed to the world
“Allow me to re-introduce myself. My name is Reed!!!” Read more
If you still believe in pocket passers, you are wrong. A look into mobile QBs and their actual value, both rushing and in extending plays in the passing game shows they Read more
A lot have looked ahead on the Eagles schedule at the Titans game as a concerning matchup due to Derrick Henry and the Titans run defense. But I am way more optimistic as the Eagles' strengths match up well against the Titans. Read more
Devon Witherspoon fits what the Eagles look for in corners and will realistically be available with where they could prioritize a corner in this upcoming class. Read more
One of the first "my guys" for the 2023 draft, Devon Witherspoon is a not-talked-about-enough corner. Ultra confident and competitive, smooth in coverage, with some of the best short-area agility in this class. Read more
WagerWire Draft Profile: Tyree Wilson Is Going to Be a Plague to Offenses
Last year Texas Tech told David to watch for Tyree Wilson in 2022. Watching his 2021 film, you saw incredible size and potential, but a raw player. But his improvement in 2022 is staggering. I’ll put it simply:
Tyree Wilson has the potential to be an absolute plague to offenses.
Tyree is one of the later DL prospects I watched but I’m immediately a fan. Teams, especially those that play multiple fronts and value versatility, should be praying Tyree falls to them.
He will swallow runs up, cannot be left unblocked when you run a play away from him because of his range, and with continued pass rush improvement his length and power will be line-wrecking.
Statistics
Tyree is one of the few defensive linemen in this class that has done it against the run and pass.
6’6″, 275 pounds. 35 5/8 arms (unofficially)
35.5% true pass-set pass rush win rate, behind only Will McDonald and Mike Morris in this class and right with Aidan and Thibodeaux in last year’s class
50 pressures (8 sacks, 10 hits, and 32 hurries), 3rd in this class behind Will Anderson (59 pressures) and Tuli Tuipulotu (51) but he did it on over 100 fewer pass rush snaps
25 run stops and a 12.5% run stop rate, 4th in this class behind Jalen Carter, Mazi Smith, and MJ Anderson and this would have been the best stop rate in last year’s class
27.5 TFLs over his last 23 college games
Consistency with at least 3 pressures and 1 run stop in all 10 games this year
Tyree is one of only four defensive line prospects with both a run stop rate over 10% and pass rush win rate above 30% – Jared Verse, Felix Anudike-Uzomah, and Nolan Smith are the other three.
Clips
Run defense
First, I have to start with his run defense because he has day one value to an NFL team here. Because of his length and power, Tyree is the Bermuda Triangle when backs run his way.
Here are 3 clips from 2022:
First he uses his length to pull down a rush to the other side
He uses his length to stay off a block to take down an outside run.
And he pushes the RT 3 yards back into the RB’s path, diverting the run
Great, so just run away from his side…
Tyree’s ability to close a large amount of space quickly makes running away from him difficult as well. Here are 3 clips where he is left unblocked on the backside which teams need to learn you just cannot do.
Crosses the formation, navigating traffic to take down a run to the other side
Bijan stops to cut back through a hole, sees Tyree and looks to continue outside but Tyree pulls him down
He brings down Bijan’s teammate and underrated back Roschon Johnson
And one last set of clips to show his range. Both of these are against Baylor with Tyree tracking down RB Richard Reese. Reese isn’t a nobody… he was clocked at over 21 mph this year, making him one of the fastest backs of 2022.
Pass rush
There is nothing else to say about his run defense, but with Tyree you are banking on continued growth as a pass rusher. First a clip from the 2021 season.
A really poor first step, power rush only, weirdly doesn’t use his length at all, gets locked up tight on the LT, and has no counter.
I could have posted many more of these from 2021.
Coming into the 2022 season, Tyree spoke about working on both his speed and additional pass rush moves including adding a swim move. It is apparent with him doubling his pressure rate in 2022.
First, two clips from 2022 (vs. Houston and Texas) where he looks like a different player from 2021. He now uses his length to generate pressure through the LT and his first step is quicker.
A second clip which shows him using his brand new swim move which you did not see at all in 2021. He jumps inside the RT with speed to beat the RG coming over to assist. He draws a hold on the play with the QB pressure.
And he still can win with pure power. Just a couple of clips to show how Tyree can wreck a line. The first he just pushes through a Texas double-team and uses his reach to pull down Hudson Card. In the second he gets good leverage inside on RG Grant Miller to get a QB hit.
What others are saying
Tyree’s strengths and weaknesses are pretty consistent across scouting reports:
Questionable first step speed to win on outside in NFL
Can play with high pad level
What is wildly varied is where he projects in the NFL with some saying he is an OLB and others thinking he needs to be inside due to his first step speed.
Tyree primarily played defensive end or EDGE with 1,528 of his 1,654 college snaps coming over the tackle or wider and only 126 snaps coming as a 3-tech.
A good analysis is here from ex-Jet scout Daniel Kelly. Daniel sees Tyree bringing more value on the inside and leads it off with “Tyree Wilson has elite brute power.”
He is going high and teams are going to be enamored with his build, day one run defense value, and upside. For me, you can group Jalen Carter, Will Anderson, and Tyree together at the top and pick your style.
If Tyree is there at the Eagles pick, I don’t hesitate on taking him.
Looking ahead to the Combine, it will be really interesting to see what he tests. At 275 pounds and a projected 4.8 forty, he would have a Speed Score around 103, in the same area as Josh Paschal and Aidan Hutchinson last year. The most interesting thing will be to see his broad, vertical, and 3-cone. His speed / power / frame makeup could be crazy.
Just imagine a line with Tyree and Jordan and Josh and Haason and Milton.
WagerWire Report: Looking Back at Our Top 10 for 2022
We want to thank all of you for reading and engaging throughout the year – we are both incredibly honored to be able to do this with the best fan base in the world. To wrap 2022, here are our top 10 articles:
The year began with a playoff game in January against Tampa, and as soon as the loss happened, so did the slander and doubt slung at Jalen Hurts.
After the loss, Hurts wasn’t the only one taking heat. There was also talk of Howie Roseman needing to be replaced. But he was about to turn the Philly faithful upside down, along with the entire NFL.
A transformational off-season began. One that saw A LOT of fans demanding that the Eagles trade every asset they had for either a QB with multiple allegations of sexual misconduct or another who has been mediocre at best.
Whether you believe the QBs didn’t want Philly or Philly didn’t want them, it worked out best for the Eagles. In a BIG way.
As such, the Howie redemption tour continued on by making one of the best deals in franchise history. They acquired WR A.J. Brown.
Then a draft that nobody could even believe. The Eagles got their man, a hulking anchor of the D-line in Jordan Davis and missing piece for the Gannon defense. Here is a look at why Nose Tackles are increasing in importance with the Fangio-tree defenses and how they are becoming a new premium position.
While Jordan Davis was exactly who we wanted, we also became punting nerds-slash-fans this year. It started with digging into what all this “Punt God” talk was about but turned into understanding how good punters impact scoring, why the 2022 punter draft class is the best in 20 years, and why we wanted the Eagles to take Penn State’s Jordan Stout. But we couldn’t get everything we wanted…
After predicting the Eagles would beat their 6.5 win betting line in 2021, we were again optimistic on the Eagles in 2022, predicting another “over”. Here is a look back at what we got right and wrong in the 2021 model and why we thought they would be much better in 2022.
The Eagles are good in all phases but I don’t think anybody realizes just how good they are running the ball. Rushing is having a resurgence with increasing rush value (and declining passing value) across the league. And the Eagles are historically good with 3 of the best running games since 2010.
The offensive line and Miles Sanders’ career year have a lot to do with it, but Hurts and the other mobile QBs are impacting both the run and pass game with their mobility. If you need a QB and don’t draft mobility, you are playing yesterday’s game.
WagerWire Report: Thoughts on the 2023 Draft First Round
I am nowhere near done looking at prospects and there is a ton of time before the draft, but a few things look pretty clear so far. And one is that defensive line is going to be a priority for a lot of teams, not just the Eagles.
Some thoughts on how the 2023 draft may shape and some different “best players available” that could be there for the Eagles .
The 2023 draft lacks the top-end at several premium positions
The most heavily drafted positions in the 1st round are CB (averages 5 players taken in the 1st), EDGE(3.8), WR (3.8), and OT (3.7). But outside of EDGE (more on them in a second), this class doesn’t have the top-end talent the past several classes have had.
Cornerback We are used to multiple top CBs – Sauce and Stingley, Horn and Surtain – but this year we have only one in my opinion, Oregon’s Christian Gonzalez. Many have Kelee Ringo up there and I know I am an outlier, but I have concerns on his change of direction translating to the NFL. Joey Porter Jr and Cam Smith I like but they aren’t top 10 guys.
Wide Receiver After being spoiled the past couple of years with immediate impact, top-of-the-league receivers like Ja’Marr Chase, DeVonta Smith, Justin Jefferson, Jaylen Waddle, Garrett Wilson, and Chris Olave, this class doesn’t have a clear top guy. Jordan Addison is probably WR1 and some like Quentin Johnson, but are any of them anywhere near the same top-end we have seen?
Tackle This is the leanest position group of the bunch and it took a hit when Ola Fashanu decided to return next year. Paris Johnson is deserving. Most like Skoronski but his length isn’t what I want that high (I admit I am very biased on big and athletic tackles). Anton Harrison? Broderick Jones? They will be pushed up boards, but aside from Paris, I don’t think any of these guys would have been drafted here in past years.
It will be interesting to see if the QB trade-ups return
The Texans are taking a QB. But after them, there are several QB-desperate teams not high enough. Will the Colts (currently 5) or Panthers (8) or newly-in-the-QB-market Raiders (9) be willing to move up? The Lions have two 1sts (picks 7 and 18) and are better positioned than anybody to get a QB if they want to.
And while moving up from outside the top 10 is near impossible, there are some teams deeper in the draft that really need QBs like the Jets (currently pick 15) and Saints (40).
The Bears, currently at pick 2 and Cardinals at pick 4 could both look to cash in.
I think three QBs will probably go in the top 10 this year and if teams get desperate, I wouldn’t be surprised if a 4th went. Bryce Young, CJ Stroud, Will Levis and Tanner McKee could all be taken.
Defensive line is going to be historically drafted
Defensive line is very strong this year. Last year EDGEs went high with 3 taken in the top 5 picks but it wasn’t a heavily drafted class overall with only 3 more defensive linemen taken in the rest of the 1st. But 2023 should look more like 2019 when 11 defensive linemen went in the 1st.
Here are the DT and EDGE names that should be in the round 1 conversation:
Definites (6): Jalen Carter, Will Anderson, Myles Murphy, Tyree Wilson, Jared Verse, Bryan Bresee
And there are a couple more potential surprises. With the growing value of NTs, would Sikai Ika sneak into the 1st? I’m not sure why Tuli Tuipulotu isn’t talked about more. And Andre Carter is up in the air because of his potential service requirement.
Given the top-end weakness in other positions, it isn’t crazy to have DL be the BPA at almost every non-QB pick in the top 10. Maybe 2023 won’t break the 2019 number, but I would be surprised if at least 8-9 don’t get taken in round 1.
What about the Eagles (Saints) pick?
While the Saints pick can land as high as 4 with a ton of help, it is most likely going to be around where it currently sits with remaining games against Philly and Carolina. The Athletic projects the Saints pick to land at 9, I have them remaining at 10, going 1-1 in their final two games and ending 7-10 lumped with the Browns, Titans, and Jets.
I, like everybody, would love Jalen Carter but, sorry Eagles fans, he will be long gone and the first non-QB taken. Will Anderson will be gone too.
Everybody is mocking DL to the Eagles with the Saints pick which makes all the sense in the world – it matches what Howie wants to invest in, it is a premium position, and it is their biggest need with pending free agents.
But what if there is a huge run on DL?
What if only a couple of QBs are taken at the top with some of the QB-needy teams choosing instead to go after Lamar Jackson, take on Jimmy Garoppolo, trade for Derek Carr, or attempt to rehabilitate Zach Wilson?
And what if the Saints pick drops into the teens?
It wouldn’t be crazy that all of these players are gone by the time the Eagles are on the clock:
Jalen Carter
Will Anderson
Myles Murphy
Tyree Wilson
Bryan Bresee
Jared Verse
I have 9 players (not counting QBs) that I think are worth a top half of round 1 pick. This will differ from most with some key names not on here like Kelee Ringo, Brian Bresee, and Michael Mayer. Joey Porter Jr I am close on. Quentin Johnston not sure I would have here in past years but I do. Most will disagree as there are some favorites here, but that is fine.
DT
ED
RB
CB
S
OG
OT
WR
QB
TE
LB
R1-early
JALEN CARTER
Will Anderson TYREE WILSON Nolan Smith
Christian Gonzalez
Paris Johnson
Quentin Johnston Jordan Addison
What are some non-chalk picks for the Eagles that could make sense? Here are a few pretty obvious ones and one or two that may be crazy…
Christian Gonzalez, CB Oregon
Why the Eagles should do it: Gonzalez is my CB1. I care about play recognition, change of direction, and willingness to tackle. Gonzalez is all of that. He stays with receivers both down field and in breaks and is one of the best zone corners in this class. Corner is one of the most expensive positions to get in free agency, Bradberry is hitting free agency, Slay is older, and Avonte has missed time.
Oregon CB Christian Gonzalez has been balling this year, two picks this weekend against his former team.
Gonzalez has blazing speed, reportedly hit 23.3 MPH on the GPS before the season and has a 42 inch vertical.
And one more – I wish I had all-22 of this play. Everybody looks at the interception but look at his change of direction and burst.
Watch how quickly Christian Gonzalez goes from defender to runner…
Such a fluid athlete who’s going to be a first round pick come April. He’s starting to play up to his talent level and it’s been very cool to witness. pic.twitter.com/f9uRTc5CHH
Why not: I think Howie sees the difficult hit rate on corners and really prefers to either get veterans (Slay, Bradberry, Nelson) or load up on cheaper options and hope one hits in Gannon’s corner-friendly scheme. This isn’t a bad strategy, but it is an expensive one and one that is difficult to keep consistent performance with players changing each year.
Paris Johnson, OT Ohio State
Why the Eagles should do it: As I said above I won’t like any tackle that isn’t big and mobile – Paris is both. Howie will always invest in lines and while tackle is locked up with Mailata and Lane, Paris brings 775 snaps at RG to the pros. The Eagles will need to decide which free agents to let go and maybe Seumalo is expendable. Also, we all love Lane but he has missed 19 games over the past 4 years. The Eagles don’t have a good enough backup or swing tackle.
Why not: There really isn’t much reason not to unless you don’t think Paris is an NFL tackle. Given his ability to play tackle and guard, there is a spot for him.
Jordan Addison, WR USC
Why the Eagles should do it: Receiver will always be a premium position and no position is getting more expensive in free agency. You may worry that there aren’t enough targets to go around, but it isn’t crazy to have 3 – just look at the Bengals with Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd who have 285 targets and 2,693 yards combined. Not quite the same level but Tampa Bay has Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Russell Gage. And a round 1 pick brings a 5th year option which helps down the road on cap.
Why not: I know, this would make 4 years in a row the Eagles used a 1st on a receiver (Reagor and DeVonta picks and the AJ trade). But what does that matter? The biggest reason not to do this would be that you feel comfortable with a day 2 receiver, which there are several good ones this year.
Bijan Robinson, RB Texas
This is the “kinda crazy” one…
Why the Eagles should do it: You now how people have insane code phrases they will say when kidnapped so people know they are kidnapped? Mine could be “yeah, it makes sense to take a running back in the first…”
I am not a RB hater by any means, but it isn’t crazy that Bijan could be the BPA when the Eagles pick. Some stats – 68% of his yards come after contact, 40.5% missed tackle rate, 1.52 yards per route run… As I wrote in “Rushing Has Made a Comeback”, the use and value of rushing has increased with rushing EPA across the league being positive for the first time.
This one is still mind blowing stuff. The way Bijan Robinson moves around at 220 pounds is insane.
Why not: Besides just saying “don’t draft a RB in round 1”, the reason not to is because of the comparative value of the rookie wage scale and free agency. Whoever is picked around 10 will have an average annual contract value a bit above $5M – you can expect the top free agent backs to be in the $6M range. You just aren’t getting value vs. the free agency market picking this high compared to CB or WR or OT which all go for $15-20M AAV at the top end.
The one thing to consider though is RBs have a very definite age curve and signing free agents carries a lot of drop-off risk. Data shows that generally around 1,800 career rush attempts a back starts to materially decline in value. The top 3 backs in free agency last year are all dramatically underperforming – Leonard Fournette is 61st out of 68 backs, Chase Edmonds is 62nd, and Cordarrelle Patterson 46th. If drafting a RB high is questionable positional value, signing a free agent RB should get GMs fired.
Everybody has Mayer as TE1 and one of the safest picks in the draft. I don’t see it. He’s not a great blocker, he does catch everything but is not dynamic. I don’t dislike Mayer, I just don’t see a top 10 or 15 guy.
Darnell is what we hoped Tyree Jackson would be. He is by far the best blocking tight end – he looks like a tackle blocking. Ignore his college production, he was asked to block often at UGA and if you watch the film, he could have been targeted whenever he was out in routes. At 6’7″ 270lbs, he’s an absolute matchup nightmare. Jelani Woods was undervalued last year and will be the best TE from last class. Darnell is better.
Could you imagine A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, and Darnell Washington all out in routes? Seriously watch these three clips spliced together:
Georgia TE Darnell Washington, a play in 3 acts:
Act 1: The 6'7" 269lb behemoth catches a pass shucks a tackle & hurdles another.
Act 2: He, as a TE, ragdolls an EDGE rusher on a run.
Why not: Because you hate fun. I don’t know. But seriously, yes, I know all the simulators have him with an ADP around 40 but simulators are wrong. Go back and look how much prospect rankings change between December and the draft. Maybe it is too high for him, maybe we don’t want to run 12 personnel, maybe positional value.
So what would I do?
Of course Howie will make a trade up if he sees the board falling wrong and wants his guy, as he has done the past two seasons. And I would do the same.
But what would I do if the above played out and a trade wasn’t possible? I would take Christian Gonzalez without hesitation. It is a need, he is so good, and top corners are incredibly expensive.
When Hurts gets extended and his new contract hits, the Eagles will need to pull cap from other positions. Right now they are slated to have the most expensive CB room in the league in 2023 at $38M. And that is without James Bradberry
But I would be ecstatic to have any of these guys, even Bijan.
Thanks for reading and please check out our friends at @WagerWire.
WagerWire Draft Profile: Georgia Safety Chris Smith II
The Eagles double-dipped at UGA in the 2022 draft and if they end up in the market for a safety in 2023, they should look there again.
After years of ignoring the SEC, Howie has used 4 of his top 6 picks the past two years to take players from Alabama and Georgia. And not just any players, but high character, team leaders from National Championship teams.
Late in the offseason, safety went from the most concerning position on a really strong team to a position of strength with the trade for C.J. Gardner-Johnson and the surprising emergence of two UDFAs, Marcus Epps and Reed Blankenship.
Howie would love to keep this team together but with a long list of free agents this offseason, including CJGJ and Epps, they may be in the market for a safety again.
And if they want a safety in the draft, Bulldog Chris Smith II is my guy.
Statistics
Gannon pointed to the changing needs of a safety and how they need to do everything. From Bleeding Green Nation:
“In 2022, the safety position looks different than when I got in the league in 2007. You have to be able to cover, you have to be able to tackle, you have to have ball skills, you have to play zone, you have to process. That’s a thinking position.”
This far ahead of the draft, UGA’s Chris Smith has an expected draft position between 80-120 and the highest you see him rated is SAF3. But he is going to be one of the best fits at safety in the draft.
Deep alignment: Aligns as a single or double high safety 68% of snaps, more than any other safety in this class
Coverage skills: the 2nd best PBU rate (20.8%), best passer rating against (49.1), and best YAC per reception allowed (2.6 yards)
Run fits: Has the 2nd best adjusted run stop rate (run stops factoring in deep alignment) at 7.5%
Ball skills: 6 interceptions over the past two seasons on 57 targets, a 10.5% interception rate, best in this class
Clips
Closing from deep alignment
I’ll start with a run defense snap, as I did with Devon Witherspoon. Coverage is key but plays like this show speed, play recognition, and effort which isn’t always seen.
I don’t know what he will officially test but look at this on-the-field speed. Here Smith is 12 yards deep, reads immediately and breaks on a handoff to Oregon’s Noah Whittington (who has speed) for a 2 yard TFL. Smith is faster than anybody on the field.
And here, 12 yards deep on a WR screen, again watch the closing speed as he breaks on the play.
Coverage
Single-high alignment, lays a big hit at the catch point for a PBU.
In the 2021 season opener against Clemson, Smith with a pick-six (interestingly, his brother plays for Kansas State and had a pick-six earlier in the day). Not a great pass but he shows his break on the ball.
And against Bo Nix, stepping in front of TE Patrick Herbert.
One think you will see is some bad angles and missed tackles. Smith has 10 missed tackles in 2022 (a 16.4% rate in 2022 with a career 15.2% rate). This is the biggest area for me and one that knocks him down a bit. Here’s a clip from the SEC Championship game this year where Boutte runs past him for a long TD after a bad angle.
What others are saying
Take draft opinions for what they are, but I am including the common themes on Smith:
Versatile safety that can play deep safety, nickel corner, and robber
High football IQ and ability to identify routes
Good burst and recovery speed, ability to close on routes
Thin frame that needs to fill out
Needs to improve angles and tackling
Draft projection
Smith will be passed over by some teams because of his age (23 by the start of his rookie season) but would be good value in the back half of day 2.
He fits exactly what the Eagles want in safeties and players in general. From DawgNation, his parents describe him as “an old soul” and somebody who would rather “stay home or work out than hang out with his friends all day”.
And like the players Howie has recently taken from Alabama and Georgia, Smith has the intangibles. Kirby Smart explained Smith’s growth – “Just his toughness, his leadership. He was always a competitor, a great kid, comes from a great family, great high school background. He played corner, he played everything we asked. If anything, he’s grown as a leader.”
Not as many people are looking at safeties this year as they were last due to the signing of CJ and emergence of Epps and Reed Blankenship. Re-signing one or both of their safeties will be a priority for Howie, but if the Eagles look to the draft, Chris Smith II is the guy I like over the other top prospects.
WagerWire Report: Reflecting on Jalen Hurts, He’s Just Different
The Eagles are up 21–0 over the Tennessee Titans, the entire sideline is celebrating, laughing, and chopping it up. Well, everyone except Jalen Hurts. He’s by himself, staring at the field, focused.
He’s just different.
After being benched during the college national championship game at halftime for freshman Tua Tagovailoa, Jalen was the first person out there to congratulate his replacement after his first drive led to a touchdown on his way to rallying the Alabama Tide to a 26–23 overtime win.
He’s just different.
Jalen spent the entire off-season hearing fans, media, and former players criticize his play, ability, and even his spot on the roster. Yet he never responded. He just stayed focused and continued improving his craft utilizing the one attribute very few have ever doubted. His work ethic.
While others in similar circumstances have been bitter or demanded to be traded, Hurts used it as fuel and changed the mind of each doubter one game at a time.
“That turns me up. It lights a fire in me. It does something to me, because I know I’ll prove you wrong.”
Say it with me, he’s just…..
You get the point by now.
And it’s not just his play, demeanor, or unrelenting workouts that make him different. It’s also that beautiful mind of his.
It’s who he has chosen to lead his off-the-field management team, which is a decision that has made him the most different.
Jalen has comprised an all-women-led team. Who he describes as
“straight hustlers”
The Team:
January 2020. Jalen has just played the last game of his college career. Nicole Lynn, now his agent, had sent Hurts a message via Instagram.
“Hey, have you picked an agent? If not, I’d love to link.”
A shot in the dark, even the way Lynn describes it.
“A total Hail Mary”
Most players heading into the NFL Draft have already chosen their agent. But Hurts was still in the process. And the fact she was a female didn’t deter Jalen from seeing what she had to offer.
“I wanted to hear her out”
Lynn has stated that she met with Jalen’s dad for three hours before meeting with Hurts himself. She left the meeting not knowing what to expect and didn’t have a read for how it went.
“Jalen has a poker face. He doesn’t show a ton of emotion”
But Jalen had seemingly noticed something about her.
You know that fire he described earlier that turns him up and feeds his desire to prove everyone wrong?
“I saw that same fire in Nicole. She (Lynn) said, ‘I’m a woman. People are going to overlook me. People are going to doubt me. They’re not going to give me the due respect. But I’m overcoming it, just like you do’. And that’s where we really hit it off. We had the same vision.”
And his vision, which included choosing Lynn to be his agent, would be just the beginning.
Jalen put together a team of the brightest and the best he could find. And coincidentally, they just all happened to be female.
“I’ve put a lot of trust and faith in a female-driven team. I admire anyone who puts their head down and works for what they want. And I know women who do that daily, but they don’t get the same praise as men. They don’t get the praise that they deserve”
Jalen’s decisions may help to change that.
“My goal in speaking out on this is to advocate for and support the investment in women in sports.”
And Jalen didn’t just speak out, he responded with action by hiring Jenna Malphrus, management. Chantal Romain, communications. Shakeemah Simmons-Winter, communications. Rachel Everett, marketing. And the aforementioned Nicole Lynn, Agent.
“I have a team of straight hustlers. And that’s how I am on the field and off the field.”
So far the results speak for themselves. Everything has gone well and he and his team have been hustling both off and on the field.
The Field:
“People had doubts on me. People still have doubts on me.”
Running QBs can’t win.
Jalen’s a 2nd round pick for a reason.
An all-woman management team can’t succeed in the NFL.
Even Dallas Cowboys defensive player Micah Parsons recently opined that the team was good due to their system, and not because of Hurts.
“Is it Hurts or the team?”
“It’s system and team”
-Cowboys DE Micah Parsons not believing in Jalen Hurts MVP? 🤔
And while others have expressed doubts, Hurts never has shared their opinions.
“I carry my scars with me everywhere I go. I don’t forget. Do I waste my energy worrying about the opinion of someone else? No. Everyone and their opinion doesn’t deposit at the bank”
Earlier this offseason Jalen commented that“rent’s due every day” (his term for putting in the hard work)and he has stayed focused on what he can control and has not been concerned about Micah’s, or anyone else’s opinion. All of that is just noise to him and propaganda for the talk shows.
On the field, Jalen is focused, and he’s been making deposits via effort, and that investment has been rewarded via the results.
In his last 17 regular season starts (equivalent to one full season) the Eagles are 16–1.
Jalen has completed 67.1% of his passes. Thrown for 4,181 yards and 25 touchdowns for a QB rating of 104.0. He also added 836 rushing yards and 15 rushing touchdowns.
His play also has the Eagles on the verge of clinching the number one seed in the NFC by winning one of their final 3 games. Jalen is assuaging the fears of his doubters on and off the field.
The Future:
So, as we sit here reflecting on “what’s next” for Jalen Hurts, maybe we are all watching someone who is the exception to the rule.
Or.
Maybe we are all learning that he is the person that will break down the door of exceptions and transform the way others will be judged in the future.
Maybe analysts, fans, and the media will not be so quick to tear down players, especially Quarterbacks who have unique skill sets and an additionalability to be able to effectively run.
Maybe his efforts and decisions will be one of the sparks that light a fire that leads to how women are viewed in sports and management.
Maybe, just maybe, we are looking at a real-life unicorn. Someone who will impact all of the aforementioned, and much more.
Like a coffee bean.
“You know, I think you’ve got to try to be the coffee bean. Whenever I say coffee bean, you’ve got the carrot and the egg. You put an egg in boiling water, it hardens up. It doesn’t affect anything. The carrot softens up. The coffee bean spreads and gets stronger and impacts the people around you, you know? I’m trying to be that coffee bean.”
A walking quote machine that has had such zingers as“I’m the thermostat! I set the temperature of the room” also makes an analogy using the word coffee bean. He makes the phrase sound cool while also encouraging us all to strive to be one.
WagerWire Report: Extraordinary Things to see while enjoying an Eagles-winning weekend in Dallas
As cliche as it may seem, your first must-see stop should be the 6th Floor Museum. From there, continue on a mini JFK tour.
Sixth Floor Museum — Located at the former Book Depository where Lee Harvey Oswald worked (and the window seen below on the sixth floor) and allegedly shot President John F Kennedy. 411 Elm St, Dallas, Texas.
Grassy Knoll Dealey Plaza — Many things to see outside here. The spot on the street, usually marked by 2 X’s, where the shots that hit and killed Kennedy happened. The picket fence atop the grassy knoll. This area is eerily similar looking to every video and photograph you have ever seen. Not a lot has changed in this area.
Texas Theatre — The site where Oswald was arrested. Still open, and authentic, and you can catch a movie there. Sit where Oswald sat.
Oswald Rooming House in Oak Cliff — Loved my tour there. Met Patricia Hall (owner, and knew Oswald when she was a child) 1026 N Beckley Ave
Ruth Paine House 2515 W Fifth St, the house has been restored to how it looked in 1963 and it was fantastic to see. Oswald spent his last night before the assassination here with his wife. See the garage where he grabbed a long tube-shaped package (curtain rods or the murder weapon, you decide). Co-worker Buell Frazier who drove him to work that day lived down the street.
Neely Street Boarding House — This is where the famous photographs of Oswald holding communist propaganda articles in one hand and the alleged murder weapon (rifle) in the other. (Located at 214 W Neely St, very close to Oswald rooming house in Oak Cliff, go here next)
Other Interesting Memorials or Tributes:
JFK Memorial Site — One block from Dealey Plaza, 50 ft high square memorial with inscriptions.
JFK Tribute — Outside of the Ft Worth Hilton Hotel (Formerly Hotel Texas) this is where Kennedy spent his last night and gave his final speech. Sculpture, photographs, and inscriptions regarding his final moments there.
Dallas Municipal Building — Where Jack Ruby shot and killed alleged Kennedy assassin, Lee Harvey Oswald, as he came into the garage.
Parkland Hospital — The hospital where both JFK and Oswald were taken after being shot. Jack Ruby, who shot and killed Oswald, also died here.
Lee Harvey Oswald’s burial remains are located at Shannon Rose Hill Funeral Chapel and Cemetery in Ft Worth, Texas.
Campisi’s Restaurant — You need to eat while doing all of these tours, might as well be here. The owner in 1963, Joe Campisi, and his wife visited Ruby in jail on November 30th, 1963. Would love to know the details of that conversation. Ruby frequented this restaurant back in the early 60s and it had ties to the Marcello mob family. The pizza was great.
J.D. Tippit Memorial. The spot where Officer J.D. Tippit was shot and killed. Located at E 10th St and N Patton Ave.
Jack Ruby’s former Carousel Club, located 1312–1/2 Commerce
Former Home of Major General Edwin A. Walker. Oswald allegedly attempted to assassinate him on April 10th, 1963 firing a single shot that barely missed the General after passing through his front window frame. 4011 Turtle Creek Blvd, Dallas
Non-JFK-related sites:
If the historical sites regarding the JFK assassination aren’t your thing, there are many other points of interest that you will want to do while in the area.
The burial locations of the infamous Bonnie and Clyde are both in Dallas.
Clyde Barrow is buried at Western Heights Cemetery (1617 Fort Worth Ave) and Bonnie Parker’s remains are at Crown Hill Memorial Park(9178 Webb Chapel Rd). Was moved from her original burial site, West Dallas’ Fish Trap Cemetery, due to reoccurring vandalism. Bonnies’ mother insisted her daughter and Clyde not be buried together.
Billy Bob’s Texas “World’s Largest Honky Tonk” 2520 Rodeo Plaza, Fort Worth Texas
Ft Worth Stockyards
Gilley’s Dallas (Gilley’s Place from Urban Cowboy) 1135 Botham Jean Blvd, Dallas, Texas
George Bush Presidential Library
Reunion Tower
Perot Museum of Nature and Science
Dallas Zoo
Deep Ellum — Live music, arts, and cultural events.
Dallas Mavericks American Airlines Center, NBA
Dallas Stars American Airlines Center, NHL
Dallas Cowboys, AT&T Stadium, NFL
Texas Rangers Globe Life Field, MLB
Dallas County Courthouse — A block away from Dealey Plaza.
Giant Eyeball — Main St near Dallas Arts District.
Dining:
Cattleack Barbeque
Resident Taqueria
Keller’s Drive-In
Tommy Tamale Market & Cafe
Recipe Oak Cliff (Vegan and vegetarian)
Sweet Georgia Brown
Cheesesteak House
Conclusion:
Let me know in the comments how your trip went, and any other “hot spots” I have missed. Dallas has so much to offer for travelers and residents alike. If you found this useful and interesting, please clap (up to 50 times) and comment. May all of your journeys be safe, exciting, and shared with the people you love.
WagerWire Report: Rushing Has Made a Comeback, and the Eagles are Even Better at it Than You Think
I love analytics but a lot of the community has long brought out their EPA per play stats to proclaim that rushing is dead, long live the always-superior pass game.
Yes, it is a passing league. Every time I write on the value of rushing, I get reminded that it is a passing league. It is. And yes, passing has an average EPA/play higher than rushing. But that does not mean there isn’t value in rushing. And the game isn’t that simple.
Before digging into the recent trends and how ridiculously good the 2022 Eagles are, just a few reasons why rushing is important.
Why rushing is important, especially today
The “on the field” value
The Chargers Brandon Staley has had his star dim a bit this year with the under-performance of the Chargers, but he is and remains a brilliant football mind. And he is one of the most analytically driven coaches out there.
Last year he was asked about the value of the run game and he didn’t point to it being a passing league or the analytics, but to what it actually means on the field.
You don’t need the running game to be a good play action team, but what you need the running game for is the physical element of the game. There is a physicality to the game that is real. If you’re strictly a passing team, there is a physical element to the game that the defense doesn’t have to respect. That’s the truth.”
Brandon Staley
For the full article, go see it on Football Scoop here.
More balanced drives empirically result in higher scoring
Last year I looked at run/pass balance and how it related to actual drive success rates. This showed that balanced drives result in higher scoring rates – drives between 50-55% passing had the greatest excess point value (scoring above the drive’s starting expected points).
The Fangio-philosophy defenses have taken root over the past two years, going from a handful of teams to near half of the league trying to run some version of it. But one of the first big games that was recognized as different in attacking these defenses was the Packers win over Staley’s Rams in the 2020 NFC Divisional round.
There is a great article on this at The Athletic called “How offenses need to adapt to the rise of the Vic Fangio-Brandon Staley defense“. In it, Aaron Rodgers talks about how the Packers planned to attack Staley’s defense which was built to take big plays away, dare teams to run with light boxes, and force offenses into long, patient, efficient drives.
On way to a 32-18 win that day, the Packers ran 36 times (10 more than their per-game average) for 188 yards. Nathaniel Hackett, the Packers OC that game, explained why they had to use a patient, quick-passing, and run-heavy gameplan:
We watched [the Staley defense] and were like, ‘We can’t do [play-action] passes, we can’t get explosive plays.’ We have to make them stop the run. Because we can run the ball every play on them.”
Nathaniel Hackett, Packers OC
The return of the run game
The league is cyclical and many are pointing to the return of the run game. And it is coming back for all the reasons above. But there are differences this time.
First, some overall stats on the rushing (note that all the data below excludes QB kneels which are by default included in NFLfast rushing stats and negatively skew run value):
Rushing value has been climbing since 2015 and has a positive EPA/play for the first time in 2022:
But much of this improvement in rushing value is due to mobile QBs:
The red line above shows non-QB rushes with the EPA/play on the left axis. Non-QB rushes have recently increased in efficiency, climbing since 2019 but still at -0.048 EPA/rush in 2022.
The blue line shows QB rushes with two points. QB rushing has always generated a much higher EPA/play at +0.127 in 2010, equivalent to Derek Carr’s passing, the 11th best passer in 2022. QB rushing value has steadily climbed, now generating a crazy +0.310 EPA/rush, better than every QB’s passing value in 2022 except Mahomes.
And QB rushing is increasing in frequency. The average number of rushes per game is steady since 2010, but non-QB rushes are down almost 7%, averaging 22 rushes per game. But QB runs are up 67%, from 2.1 per game in 2010 to over 3.6 per game this season.
While QBs only account for 1 out of 6 rushes today, QB rushing accounts for 35% of the league’s total increase in rushing value since 2010. As I wrote in my last article, it is a mobile QB league.
How good are the Eagles?
While everybody sees how good the Eagles have been running the ball this year, I don’t think we all realize how good they are. I didn’t until I dug into the data.
The Eagles have the #1 rushing game since 2010 by EPA/rush
There have been 6,682 games played since 2010. You know what the top rushing game in EPA/play has been? This past week’s Eagles game against the Giants (33 rushes for 208 yards and a TD) with an absolutely absurd rushing EPA of +0.681 per play and +20.417 total EPA generated. To put this in context again, Patrick Mahomes’ passing EPA is +0.321 per game, less than half the Eagles run game last week.
…and the #1 rushing game by total EPA…
And want to guess what the top game since 2010 was in total rushing EPA? The Eagles in week 12 vs. Green Bay (49 rushes for 363 yards and 3 TDs). The had a total rushing EPA of +21.332 and an EPA/rush of +0.444, good for #51 out of all 6,682 games since 2010.
… and three of the top 25 rushing games since 2010…
The 2022 Eagles have 3 rushing games in the top-25 total EPA games with the two above plus week 1 vs. Detroit (39 rushes for 216 yards and 4 TDs) at +16.372 EPA and +0.431 EPA/rush.
… and they are the top rushing team since 2010
Of 416 team seasons since 2010, the 2022 Eagles are the top rushing team with an EPA/rush of +0.195. To put this in context, if the Eagles run game was a QB, it would be Joe Burrow, the 7th best passer in the league.
Please visit our friends at WagerWire and Fly Eagles fly!
Here are the top 25 rushing games by total EPA since 2010 if anybody is interested in the list. the other 2022 game that made it is Cincinnati with 39 rushes for 241 yards and 5 TDs against Carolina in week 9.
Team
Yr
Year-Week-Opponent
Rush EPA/play
Total Rush EPA
EPA/play QB
EPA/play non-QB
Rank EPA/play
Rank Total EPA
PHI
2022
2022_12_GB_PHI
0.444
21.333
0.741
0.296
51
1
PHI
2022
2022_14_PHI_NYG
0.681
20.417
1.266
0.503
1
2
NO
2017
2017_10_NO_BUF
0.460
20.223
1.598
0.433
42
3
BAL
2020
2020_13_DAL_BAL
0.521
19.281
0.697
0.426
15
4
SEA
2012
2012_15_SEA_BUF
0.600
19.195
1.064
0.418
4
5
MIN
2011
2011_14_MIN_DET
0.564
19.163
1.705
0.212
5
6
LV
2010
2010_07_OAK_DEN
0.367
18.360
0.148
0.392
136
7
NO
2013
2013_10_DAL_NO
0.509
18.312
0.509
23
8
SF
2012
2012_05_BUF_SF
0.474
18.010
0.749
0.412
36
9
BAL
2020
2020_17_BAL_CIN
0.333
17.979
0.014
0.480
190
10
ARI
2020
2020_06_ARI_DAL
0.521
17.710
0.944
0.368
16
11
CAR
2012
2012_17_CAR_NO
0.466
17.702
0.354
0.487
39
12
PHI
2013
2013_16_CHI_PHI
0.520
17.681
-0.062
0.556
18
13
NO
2020
2020_16_MIN_NO
0.419
17.579
0.632
0.390
80
14
LA
2018
2018_06_LA_DEN
0.466
17.224
1.048
0.432
40
15
SEA
2014
2014_10_NYG_SEA
0.397
17.072
0.489
0.361
102
16
CIN
2022
2022_09_CAR_CIN
0.459
16.982
0.423
0.469
43
17
NE
2014
2014_11_NE_IND
0.422
16.898
0.422
77
18
SF
2012
2012_19_GB_SF
0.412
16.893
0.870
0.175
87
19
CLE
2020
2020_04_CLE_DAL
0.444
16.886
2.355
0.393
52
20
SF
2012
2012_04_SF_NYJ
0.395
16.599
1.111
0.276
103
21
HOU
2011
2011_09_CLE_HOU
0.434
16.481
1.836
0.396
62
22
PHI
2022
2022_01_PHI_DET
0.431
16.372
0.729
0.214
62
23
BUF
2021
2021_19_NE_BUF
0.623
16.198
1.037
0.499
3
24
BAL
2019
2019_03_BAL_KC
0.473
16.088
0.374
0.514
37
25
WagerWire Report: Playing Against a Clutch Quarterback “Hurts”
Sunday: “It’s 4th-and-1 late in the first half and the Giants are back to punt… Gillan lofts the ball… Covey is under it and waves for the fair catch at the Eagles own 16… with a minute twenty-two left in the half, Jalen Hurts and the offense come back out on the field to see if they can extend their lead…”
We all know Hurts and the Eagles are going to score to close out the half.
(And tuck away for Sunday the Giants punting on 4th-and-1… they are tied for second in the league with punting 6 times on 4th-and-1, behind only Denver)
In all my years watching the Eagles, I have never had this level of confidence – actually, the expectation – that an Eagles team and QB will take advantage of the last bit of a half.
A quarterback being clutch is subjective and can be measured so many ways. Here I wanted to look at a QB’s ability to take a drive at the end of the first half or end of game and drive for a score. Without looking into the data, it just seems like Jalen Hurts does this almost every time he has the ball.
And while it’s not quite every time, he is one of the best in the league at it.
Which QBs are clutch at the end of halfs?
Below are this season’s QBs and how effective they are in driving to score late in a half. I am using drives that start with 3 minutes or less left and excluding drives that are kneels and the team didn’t attempt to drive.
The x-axis is how many points these QBs score (TDs plus field goals) compared to the total possible points (7 points times the number of drives). The y-axis is the percentage of late-half drives where the QB generated an explosive play.
Like almost any QB stat you want to look at this year, Jalen Hurts stands out.
Some stats on how good Hurts has been in these late half drives:
3rd in scoring success On 14 late half drives so far, Hurts has 27 total points including 3 touchdowns and 2 field goals. This is good for 27.6% of total possible points with only Josh Allen and Dak Prescott having higher success rates (more on Dak below).
20th in starting field position Hurts has done this without the benefit of a lot of short fields with an average starting field position on the Eagles own 26 yard line. And 4 of his 5 scoring drives were well into Eagles territory, starting at their own 29, 22, 12, and 5 yard lines. The only short field was against Jacksonville where they started on the Jags 35 yard line after Trevor fumbled the snap.
Below is the same scoring success rate chart from above but with average drive starting position on the y-axis. Allen, Brady, and Hurts all continue to dominate the top. But here you see that while Dak converts these drives into points, he has benefited from short fields with 2 of his 3 late half scoring drives being very short fields, starting at the opposing 24 and 26 after turnovers.
2nd in drives with explosive plays The chance of scoring on a drive triples with one explosive play and goes up 5 times with two explosives.
Hurts has had 11 explosive plays in 60 total plays. 7 out of 11 drives had at least one explosive play with 4 resulting in a score and 3 drives had more than one explosive. Only Josh Allen beats Hurts here and Mahomes is right behind him.
3rd in average yards gained per drive Hurts averages 32.5 yards gained on these drives, only behind Allen and Brady.
6th in EPA / drive Hurts averages generating 3.017 EPA per drive, or 0.703 EPA/play, on these late half drives. To give context, Patrick Mahomes is the top QB in EPA/play this year with a 0.336 EPA/play average.
Hurts and these top QBs – Allen, Brady, Jacoby Brissett, Joe Burrow, and Jared Goff – are over twice as efficient during these late half drives than the league’s best passer.
And for the “the Eagles don’t trust Hurts to pass” crowd… On these late half drives, Hurts has a run/pass ratio of 19 rushes/38 passes, or a 67% pass rate.
Hurts stands out no matter how you look at this.
As always thanks for reading. Please visit our friends at WagerWire.
If interested in the complete set of data, for example to point out that Wentz only has a field goal in 13 drives and is 30th in the league in explosive plays… or that offseason QB crush for many Russell Wilson has 9 points, good for 26th in the league, here you go.
QB
Drives
Avg Yards to Go
Rank
Points Scored
Rank
% Possible Points
Rank
% Drives with Explosive Plays
Rank
Runs / Passes
% Pass
Rank
Yards Gained per Drive
Rank
EPA per Drive
Rank
J.Allen
18
76.11
3
40
1
31.75
1
83.3
1
18/66
78.6
10
41.3
1
6.114
1
D.Prescott
12
59.58
30
24
9
28.57
2
25
23
10/22
68.8
19
16.1
26
2.504
8
J.Hurts
14
73.5
11
27
6
27.55
3
78.6
2
19/38
66.7
22
32.5
3
3.017
6
T.Brady
18
75.78
4
33
3
26.19
4
44.4
13
8/74
90.2
1
32.6
2
5.244
2
J.Herbert
22
67.27
21
36
2
23.38
5
50
9
23/72
75.8
13
23.6
12
1.402
12
D.Carr
12
71.17
15
19
14
22.62
6
50
9
12/43
78.2
11
28.1
5
0.616
14
J.Brissett
19
64.74
28
30
4
22.56
7
47.4
11
21/51
70.8
17
21
16
3.195
4
J.Burrow
18
71.39
14
27
6
21.43
8
33.3
19
12/48
80
7
21.6
13
3.127
5
J.Goff
18
66.67
23
27
6
21.43
8
44.4
13
26/43
62.3
27
24.6
11
4.61
3
T.Heinicke
11
74.55
7
16
17
20.78
10
45.5
12
14/35
71.4
16
25.3
10
1.869
10
K.Cousins
19
67.89
20
26
8
19.55
11
31.6
21
11/54
83.1
4
20.9
17
0.02
17
G.Smith
16
70.56
17
20
12
17.86
12
56.3
7
20/40
66.7
22
26.4
8
2.558
7
J.Garoppolo
12
66.75
22
14
19
16.67
13
16.7
29
15/29
65.9
24
18.5
23
-1.597
23
A.Dalton
12
73.75
9
13
20
15.48
14
58.3
6
9/43
82.7
5
27.8
6
-1.504
22
D.Jones
20
74.85
6
20
12
14.29
16
35
18
16/49
75.4
14
18.6
22
1.183
13
L.Jackson
10
76.6
1
10
23
14.29
16
30
22
9/20
69
18
21.3
15
1.521
11
M.Ryan
22
66.32
25
22
10
14.29
16
22.7
25
22/72
76.6
12
21.4
14
0.025
16
T.Lawrence
17
62.35
29
17
16
14.29
16
70.6
4
12/64
84.2
3
27.2
7
-0.215
19
A.Rodgers
21
68.71
19
20
12
13.61
19
38.1
16
13/48
78.7
9
18
24
-1.311
21
P.Mahomes
17
75.65
5
16
17
13.45
20
76.5
3
11/44
80
7
26.4
9
1.931
9
P.Walker
11
68.91
18
10
23
12.99
21
36.4
17
12/12
50
30
16.1
25
-4.752
30
C.Rush
10
65.8
27
9
26
12.86
22
20
27
6/34
85
2
19.3
20
-1.135
20
M.Jones
11
71.73
12
9
26
11.69
23
54.6
8
12/24
66.7
22
20
18
-0.155
18
M.Mariota
24
71.58
13
19
14
11.31
24
33.3
19
22/38
63.3
26
14.5
27
-3.564
26
M.Stafford
14
66.57
24
10
23
10.2
25
21.4
26
13/27
67.5
20
11.6
28
-4.141
27
R.Wilson
14
76.57
2
9
26
9.18
26
64.3
5
11/48
81.4
6
29.6
4
0.606
15
J.Fields
23
66.04
26
13
20
8.07
27
43.5
15
32/35
52.2
29
19.5
19
-4.302
29
D.Mills
17
73.71
10
6
28
5.04
28
17.7
28
16/26
61.9
28
9.8
29
-4.213
28
C.Wentz
13
70.77
16
3
29
3.3
29
7.7
30
13/24
64.9
25
7.6
30
-2.994
25
K.Murray
16
73.88
8
3
29
2.68
30
25
23
13/39
75
15
19.2
21
-1.767
24
WagerWire Report: Introducing The Eagles Prime Time Sensation, Defensive Back Reed Blankenship
On Monday night, Reed Blankenship had the daunting task of coming into the game and playing safety for injured Eagles standout C.J. Gardner-Johnson. Reed intercepted the first pass ever targeted at him in the NFL. (Thrown by sure NFL Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers no less)
The former MTSU standout and current NFL rookie then exclaimed to the world
“Allow me to re-introduce myself. My name is Reed!!!”
No, he didn’t say that, but he didn’t have to. That play said a lot for him. His coaches and teammates were not at all surprised.
Prime Time Debut:
Monday night when C.J. left the game with a then unspecified injury, the Eagles called Reed to duty despite having played a mere 2 defensive snaps all season. And like all great Quarterbacks, Aaron Rodgers went after the perceived weak link. To Aaron, and everyone else at the stadium’s surprise (except the Eagles players/coaches who worked with Reed all season) his first-ever target resulted in an interception.
“We call him Ghost. Can’t see him while he out there. Ghost. That’s why they threw that pick right to him.” Zech McPhearson
Despite everyone watching being shocked, “Ghost” went into the game with confidence, knowing that he was ready for the prime-time stage.
“I know that my name was going to get called eventually; it’s a long season. But I was ready for it, I was prepared for it and went in confident. I have guys in the room that are mature and I just learned from them every day.”
Blankenship finished the game playing 35 snaps, with six tackles and that aforementioned interception. One teammate Big Play Slay wished was his.
The week leading up to the game Slay had been talking up the opportunity to get a pick off Rodgers. He wanted to add him to his collection of what he called his “Mt Rushmore” of footballs that he has intercepted.
“The only person I haven’t gotten is A-Rod. He’s the only one I’m missing.”
Slay stated the balls he intercepted off the other “GOATS (greatest of all time) Brady and Brees, are displayed above his Pro Bowl jerseys in his home.
“I only got two. I need that third. A-Rod, give it to me.”
Big Play Slay did not get a clean chance for a pick, but he was happy for the rookie and jokingly added
“I’m low-key jealous. I’ve been in the league 10 years, he’s a rookie, but have to give props to him, my dog went off today. Low key jealous got a pick from A-Rod. I’ve been in this for (a long time) and he got one. Good for him.”
Good for Reed, indeed.
Before his thrilling MNF interception, most football fans around the league had never heard of Reed Blankenship. But the Philadelphia coaches had gained confidence in Blankenship back in camp.
Making the Roster:
A lot of people who follow the Eagles were surprised when unknown, undrafted, Reed Blankenship from Middle Tennessee State made the 53-man roster over Anthony Harris and Tartt. He was one of 3 undrafted players that made the team and it took every chance he was given, including an impressive tackle in the last pre-season game that seemingly accomplished that goal.
There were whispers at camp that Reed was showing solid fundamentals and instincts, but once he put on the pads, Sirianni stated.
“When we had pads on. It just seemed like every time he was coming up and making tackles. We liked him without pads on and now we really like him when he’s able to show his physicality out on the field. So, I think that’s where we really started talking about him more and more and more.”
The Eagles have a large role to fill with C.J. Gardner-Johnson missing an unspecified amount of time, but Reed Blankenship is ready for the test and to prove he deserves to be a member of this team.
And who knows maybe he will prove that he can be a star(ter) in this league.
He has proven himself at every other level as well.
Limestone High School:
Reed grew up in the same small Alabama town as teammate Quez Watkins, in Athens Alabama. While Quez went to neighboring Athens High School, Reed attended Limestone High School in Lester, Alabama.
Playing for a town with a population of 120–130 people is small, but as the Wildcat’s QB and DB, Reed was anything but.
His high school stats earned him the honor of being a two-time all-state selection while rushing for over 3192 yards, receiving 1004, passing for 1056, and totaling 46 touchdowns. The two-time team captain even managed to intercept 10 passes, guess he was a “ghost” back then as well.
The impressive numbers earned him being named the Limestone County Player of the Year as both a junior and senior.
Despite being an all-state QB and DB not many colleges showed interest. But he had his sights set on one of the schools that did.
Middle Tennessee:
Blankenship made it clear that MTSU was his choice all along. After verbally committing to them, he was excited to get to work.
“That was the main college I wanted to go to. I was like man, that felt good.”
Middle Tennessee was liking it too.
In 2017 Reed picked up in college where he had left off in High School. As a true freshman for MTSU, he started nine games, and never looked back.
During his sophomore year (2018), Reed led MTSU with 107 tackles (eight for losses), intercepted four passes (returning one for a score), and he also added 7 pass breakups.
Blankenship was off to another great start during the 2019 season, before suffering a season-ending leg injury after playing in seven games.
He still played well enough during those games, (58 tackles, two interceptions, three pass breakups, and two blocked kicks) to be named to the second-team All-Conference USA by the league coaches.
In 2020, Blankenship picked up where he had left off before the injury. Reed played in all nine games for the Blue Raiders and led the team with 76 tackles
Reed’s fifth and final season in 2021 was another healthy and productive campaign. He started all 13 games and was once again the school’s leading tackler. His 110 tackles (10 for a loss) 9 pass breakups, 3 fumble recoveries (which ranked third in the nation), and 2 forced fumbles. Those numbers were good enough for him to finish his collegiate career as MTSU’s all-time leader in tackles with 419.
Despite his college accolades, Blankenship went undrafted during the 2022 NFL Draft and he signed with the Eagles for $55,000 guaranteed including a $5,000 signing bonus.
Humbled by the experience of being one of three undrafted players that made the Eagles team out of camp, he knows there is a lot of hard work ahead to prove he belongs in the NFL.
The Future:
Blankenship isn’t your average rookie. As a five-year starter in college, Reed isn’t viewing himself as a backup. He wants to be a starter.
With both C.J. Gardner Johnson and Marcus Epps set to be free agents at the season’s end, he is aware that continually having good performances during these opportunities to play will go a long way to how the Eagles view their plans at safety heading into 2023.
Blankenship plans to make the decision to move forward with him an easy one. He also plans to introduce himself to those who don’t know him yet.
And for those who do remember him:
Allow him to re-introduce himself, his name is Reed!
WagerWire Report: It’s Now a Mobile Quarterback League – A Look at Valuing Mobility
While it is apparent that mobile quarterbacks are rapidly changing the game, there is still such polarizing conversations around the position. We in Philly see it constantly with Jalen Hurts: “he leaves the pocket too early”… “won’t win in the playoffs when teams make him pass”… “he’s missing plays downfield when he runs”…
It really isn’t debatable that teams should be seeking mobile QBs.
QB Mobility Tiers
“Mobile” isn’t just pure rushing stats like Hurts running for 157 against Green Bay, it is also the ability to extend the play and create when under pressure.
Below is a visualization capturing both QB rushing and pocket mobility value. Rushing mobility is pretty straightforward as a composite of rushing yards and EPA/rush. For pocket mobility I am using a composite of three things:
Pressure to sack rate: a QB’s ability to avoid sacks (lower is better)
Added time to throw: the added time a QB gives themselves to pass when under pressure
Pressure passer rating: how effective a QB is throwing under pressure
When you combine this, you get four quadrants of QBs:
1. The dual-threats (top right: good pocket mobility and rushing value): The names here won’t surprise anybody as it is all of the QBs that are leading rushers – Jalen (595 yards through week 12), Lamar Jackson (756), Josh Allen (561), Daniel Jones (446), and so on. They average 28 rushes for 421 yards through 12 weeks.
But more than just their pure rushing stats, each QB here is effective passing under pressure. They give themselves an average 1.22 seconds extra to pass with a passer rating of 77, over 10 points better than the league.
2. The pocket managers (top left: good pocket mobility but not the runners): This is the “underrated mobility” category. Aaron Rodgers is the classic example here – he isn’t going to tuck and run but is masterful giving himself extra time to throw with a crazy added 1.65 seconds to throw under pressure.
But in 2022 Tua is the showcase here – not a classic “mobile QB” with only 6 rushes for 29 yards this year and 266 rushing yards over 3 years, but he navigates the pocket to give himself extra time (+0.78 seconds). He is one of only two QBs with a better passer rating while under pressure with a silly 118.9 passer rating.
Dak is the one that may shock people here – he really should be in the above “mobile QB” quadrant if you look at his career. Ever since his injury he has not been a heavy rusher but is still dangerous with a passer rating 11 points better than the league.
3. The “runners” (bottom right: poor pocket mobility but good rushing value): These are the QBs that are athletically mobile but haven’t turned it into effective passing. Justin Fields will develop and Russell Wilson is clearly on decline as a passer, but these QBs’ passer ratings average almost 15 points worse than the league.
4. The “pocket passers” (bottom left: poor pocket mobility and rushing value): While many are, these QBs aren’t all bad QBs. They survive on quick releases instead of extending plays. The QBs here on average throw in 3.19 seconds under pressure, less than half a second longer than clean passing averages. If you look at the more successful QBs (the circle size is EPA to identify them), they average even quicker at 3.0 seconds, by far the quickest on these groups.
Tom Brady is the interesting one here. He clearly isn’t mobile, but he releases at a ridiculously quick rate – 2.28 seconds across all passing and only 2.97 seconds under pressure. He never allows pressure with how quickly he throws, with only an 18% pressure rate, best in the league.
Valuing Mobility
The league has largely moved on from non-mobile QBs as it is really hard to find any non-mobile QBs where significant draft capital has been used over the past several years. Mac Jones is probably the closest example.
It’s really hard (impossible) to separate any one aspect of football out from the larger context of the game, some quick data to try to put value to a QB’s mobility:
Mobile QBs are far outpacing RBs in EPA/rush
Of the top 10 rushers by EPA/rush, 6 are QBs (Hurts, Jones, Lamar, Fields, Kyler, and Mariota) and the top mobile QBs are outpacing even the league’s best RBs in rush value when you look at both designed rushes and scrambles.
EPA/rush
League average rushes (excluding QB kneels)
-0.001
Josh Jacobs
0.044
Nick Chubb
0.072
Miles Sanders
0.091
Top mobile QBs average
0.683
Jalen Hurts
0.767
Here is an example from Hurts in the week 12 Green Bay game. This is the 4th highest EPA play of the game at 2.938 EPA and the 17th highest value non-scoring play across all week 12 games.
On 3rd and 10 from the Eagles 25, Hurts picks up 24 yards after getting pressure with all routes covered. Critics will say he had Gainwell on the crosser, but Hurts’ body is turned at that point making this an awkward throw.
Mobile QBs improve the passing game vs. pressure
I will exclude the details on the math, but there is a strong correlation between EPA/pass and passer rating (R2 of 0.84). The top mobile QBs above average a passer rating 10 points better than the league average when under pressure which equates to a value of +0.12 EPA/pass.
To put this in context, 0.12 EPA/pass is the difference between Jalen Hurts (0.203 EPA/pass, 6th in the league) and Jared Goff (0.085, 18th in the league). These plays made regularly are the difference between having and not having a QB.
Here is an example from the Colts game. There are many better, more heroic “scrambly” ones, but I wanted the more ordinary play that he makes multiple times a game.
Hurts gets pressure, climbs to buy time, and fits a ball in where only DeVonta can catch it for a pick up of 17. Again critics may say he starts climbing too soon and had Boston Scott free, but this is 2nd and 28 after a couple of penalties and Scott would have picked up 5 yards.
This play had a 40.8% CPOE and an underrated EPA of 0.242 (this play’s EPA is muted because it is still 3rd and 11 after the play). The Eagles did not convert and score, but to get close to converting on a hopeless 2nd and 28 is valuable.
In Philly we have seen first-hand Hurts’ value in making the defense play 11-on-11 worrying about him running or having him materially elevate the passing game by improvising. With Hurts averaging 8.5 runs a game and 7.5 passes under pressure, his mobility is worth approximately a touchdown a game.
And if you look at points per game for the league, the mobile QBs dominate the top of the list with Kirk Cousins being the first non-mobile QB at #9.
Kansas City 29.6 points per game
Buffalo 27.8
Philly 27.5
Seattle 26.5
Cincinnati 25.9
Miami 25.6
Dallas 25.4
Baltimore 25.0
Detroit 25.0
Las Vegas 24.1
It’s the same list when you look at average drive length, 3rd and 4th down conversions, and percent of drives ending in a score which is no accident.
I wrote earlier this week on the Titans game and despite their number 1 ranked run defense, one area that Tennessee has struggled is defending mobile QBs. As he has been in so many games this season, Hurts could be the difference in Tennessee.
WagerWire Report: The Eagles Have the Best Record In the NFL and an Embarrassment of Riches to Add More Talent
The Eagles have overhauled their roster from one of the oldest to one with an exciting group of talented young players. Most of these players are under contract for 2 or more seasons.
As impressive, is the fact that 10 of the projected offensive starters are all homegrown draft picks. A.J. Brown is the only outlier.
This is quite a turnaround from a roster devoid of young talent just 2 short seasons ago.
Eagles general manager Howie Roseman has done a really good job of signing their young core guys to team-friendly extensions. Coupled with the last two drafts, the roster is looking to be one of the more promising during his regime.
The 2021 NFL draft class included selecting DeVonta Smith and Landon Dickerson in rounds one and two. After one season, the early returns seem promising, and the draft has been one of the more universally liked from the beginning. The team seemingly focused more on drafting athletes who had played for winners at the college level (two national champions) and were highly respected, including team captains. This a strategy Howie and the Eagles stuck with for the 2022 draft.
While the 2021 draft was universally liked, 2022 was invariably loved. The Eagles selected 2 players from the National Champion Georgia Bulldogs defense. Jordan Davis and Captain Nakobe Dean. The theme of building through the lines while selecting winners, champions, and Captains, was again at the forefront of their decision-making. Once you include the trade to acquire Tennessee WR AJ Brown for picks 18 and 101, the haul seems to be a home run.
The Eagles seem to have the beginnings of a very good, long-term, nucleus in place and are positioned to add to this with 2 first-round picks in 2023.
WagerWire Report: Big Backs, Pass Defense, and Deep Passing – Why the Eagles Matchup Well Against Tennesse
A lot of Eagles fans have looked ahead at the Titans game as a concern, especially because of the run game on both sides of the ball. But I am way more bullish on this game than most.
His receptions, like most RBs, are effectively runs with an aDOT of 0.1 yards but his 2.03 yards per route run are twice his career average and better than any Eagles except A.J. Brown.
The Eagles run defense issues are well known, but (small sample size caveat) they have particularly struggled against the bigger, yards-after-contact backs like Dameon Pierce and AJ Dillon, both who had their best weeks of the year against the Eagles. Zeke also had his best week of the season. Even D’Andre Swift who isn’t the biggest back but is one of the better yards-after contact RBs, had his best week of the year against the Eagles.
Doesn’t sound like a good day for the Eagles defense at all. But I am much more optimistic than most.
Good pass defenses have made it hard for Derrick Henry
But Henry has been contained by the Bills, Broncos, Packers, and Bengals. Each of these games his yards per attempt, yards after contact, and explosive plays were season lows. The Bills are obviously a very good run defense (4th in run defense DVOA), but Denver and Cincy are both middle of the league run defenses and as we just saw, Green Bay is awful.
These are the only games where Henry was held to 3.0 yards per rush or less. A few things stand out with each of these games:
Good pass defenses: The only top 10 pass defenses the Titans faced were these defenses – Denver is 4th in DVOA, Buffalo 7th, Cincy 10th, and Green Bay was just outside the top ten at 11.
Stacked boxes: Trusting the pass defense allowed these teams to load the box and sell out for the run without being hurt by Tannehill. Here are the counts of extra corners or safeties aligned in the box for each game:
Bills – 52 extra secondary snaps on 51 defensive snaps and only 3 missed tackles
Packers – an absurd 95 extra defenders on 65 snaps, averaging 8 defenders in the box all game
Bengals – 44 extra defenders on 65 snaps and only 2 missed tackles all game
Broncos – Denver is the odd one as they didn’t particularly load the box (41 extra defenders on 62 snaps) and held Henry to 2.8 YPA. The Titans OL did grade out particularly poorly that week at
It’s not a new story that teams load the box against the Titans – Tannehill has famously benefited more than any other QB in the league in amount of dropbacks facing a heavy box which has inflated his passing stats. And Henry is very used to facing loaded boxes.
The difference is when Tennessee faces a good pass defense, defenses don’t have to back off against Tannehill. The Eagles pass defense is 3rd in the league, the best pass defense the Titans have seen so far.
Philosophically Gannon has wanted to use fewer up front to commit to coverage and it will be interesting to see if he switches this. They have the secondary to do it against the Titans and will need to.
The Eagles will need to tackle though. I think their tackling has been better recently than most give it credit for, but this is the biggest “if” in this game.
The Eagles pass defense gives them the opportunity to neutralize Derrick Henry if they tackle well
Tennessee’s OL isn’t great
The Titans’ OL is 11th in run block win rate (RBWR) and 27th in pass block win rate (PBWR). Henry is such a yards after contact monster but he has to be – he is 2nd in the league in percent of yards that come after contact with 83% of his yards after contact, behind only Cam Akers. On average, a defender is hitting Henry after only 0.73 yards.
When pass blocking, the Titans give up the 4th highest amount of pressure in the league behind the Giants, Chargers, Texans, and Vikings. Below shows each team’s pressure rate allowed vs. their QB’s average time to throw with TEN and PHI highlighted.
Comparatively Tannehill isn’t a bad QB against pressure, 4th in the league in passer rating vs. pressure. But pressure makes every QB worse as it does Tannehill – his passer rating drops 23 points when pressured.
And again, the Eagles (2nd in the league in pass rush win rate) will be the best pass rush the Titans have faced this year. The closest defenses the Titans have faced this year are Buffalo, Washington, and Denver and he had his two worst games against Buffalo (-0.524 EPA/play) and Washington (-0.019). Only against Denver did Tannehill have a good game where they were killed by Nick Westbrook-Ikhine.
The Eagles pass rush will get to Tannehill and the run defense comes down to tackling
The Titans run defense is good but they struggle against mobile QBs
The other side of the concern from a lot of Eagles fans is the Titans run defense. And it is very good:
1st in rush defense DVOA
8th in EPA/rush
3rd in yards per attempt allowed and total rushing yards allowed
But they have really struggled vs. mobile QBs when they scramble. They have given up the 5th most rushing yards to QBs, almost 20% of rushing yards they allowed are against QBs which is 2nd highest in the league.
And they haven’t really faced a QB like Jalen Hurts. But against the more mobile QBs they have faced – Mahomes, Daniel Jones, Russell Wilson, and Josh Allen – they have given up 8.5 yards per run and over an EPA/rush of nearly 1.00.
To put this in context, the worst run defense in the league is Cleveland who allows a a 0.164 EPA/rush, one-sixth the rushing value Tennessee allows vs. mobile QBs.
Expect Hurts to have another fantastic game
And talking of Hurts, the Eagles should be able to attack deep
The Titans are middle of the league against the pass (16th in DVOA allowed), but one area they have been bad is in intermediate and deep passing. They are 23rd in EPA/pass against intermediate passing (11-20 yards) and 29th against deep passing (20+).
And the Eagles happen to be good at deep passing:
2nd in the league in explosive pass plays (with 33) that are targeted more than 10 yards downfield, 6th in the league over 20 yards downfield (with 11)
Hurts has a phenomenal 14.38 CPOE on deep passing, 7th out of 38 QBs that have thrown at least 10 deep passes
Pick who you want, whether it’s AJ or DeVonta or Quez, but it should be a good week to attack deep.
Fly Eagles fly!
Please check out our friends at WagerWire who have been great supporters of ours this year.
WagerWire Report: Devon Witherspoon is player the Eagles should target if they’re looking for a CB in the 2023 NFL Draft
Devon Witherspoon fits what the Eagles look for in corners and will realistically be available with where they could prioritize a corner in this upcoming class.
“Spoon” started as an Eagle – a Pine Forest High School Eagle – and Philly should look hard at making him one again in the 2023 draft. I wrote here on what Philly’s roster priorities should be with, no surprise, defensive line and running back being the most obvious needs. Add in offensive line and Howie will likely continue to prioritize the positions he always has.
But corner is an emerging need as Bradberry may not be affordable to bring back, Slay is getting up in age, and the other CBs Howie has been collecting are unproven.
Corner is one of the hardest positions to hit on which is why I think Howie avoids it with top draft capital. Even in the 2021 draft, Adam Herman reported here that Howie feigned interest in Patrick Surtain and Jaycee Horn to land DeVonta Smith. But Howie now invests here – the Eagles are 13th this year in cap space spent on CBs and forecasted to be top in the league next year with Slay’s cap hit ballooning.
I don’t think this class has a top-10 or even top-15 pick like Sauce, Surtain, Horn, and Stingley the past couple of years. We get a lot of long corners this year, but I have worries on each of the current top guys. But one name I keep coming back to is Devon Witherspoon. Currently viewed as a day 2 guy (although I wouldn’t be surprised if his actual draft slot creeps up), “Spoon” may be the best value on day 2.
What others are saying
There are a million draft opinions and they are what they are, but including here some of the common themes others mention just so you know the public perspective on him. Some of these are only found on older evaluations which I have noted:
Physical, hyper-confident corner that serves him well but can get him in trouble with penalties
Some have concerns on size, but athletic with good speed. Likely to test better on agility than pure speed
Clean footwork, stays patient mirroring receivers with good short-area quickness
While he gets his hands on balls, he has not converted into interceptions
Gives up too many receptions per target (primarily on 2021 film evaluations)
Inconsistent technique, particularly in zone coverage (primarily on 2021 film evaluations)
Some concern on quality of opponents he has faced
Viewed anywhere from a 1st to 4th round prospect
Coverage stats
Devon didn’t start playing football until his junior year of high school and has markedly improved year after year. He is having his best year in 2022, playing at an elite level while matching up against the opponent’s best receiver every week.
36.8 passer rating against, 3rd best in this draft class and 6th in FBS. As a reminder, a QB throwing the ball into the ground generates a 39.6 passer rating. And he has done this with only 1 interception this year meaning he isn’t getting the benefit of turnovers pulling passer rating down, it is consistent coverage.
35% reception rate 2nd best in this class and down from 59% his junior year.
22% pass break up rate, 3rd best in this class behind Joey Porter Jr. and Eli Ricks and a higher rate than any of the corners in the 2022 draft class.
6th best run stop rate in this class with 13 run stops on 233 snaps. When you watch Devon play, his play anticipation and willingness to close jumps out.
2.00 YAC average allowed, 2nd best in this class behind Jaylon Jones and better than any 2022 corner drafted except Trent McDuffie.
5 penalties, which is a lot and weirdly this year, most of the top CB prospects have a high penalty rate (Kelee Ringo, Cam Smith, Jaylon Jones, Emmanuel Forbes, and Eli Ricks all have slightly higher rates). More on Devon’s penalties below with the film clips.
You obviously can’t just stare at numbers and have them guarantee success, but they do mean something. The 2022 corners that are succeeding in the league all stood out in some way. Sauce had an insanely low target rate and absurd 22.6 passer rating allowed… Trent McDuffie was elite on YAC allowed and 3rd best passer rating allowed… Tariq Woolen and Martin Emerson were solid across all stats.
Film clips
All-22 is severely lacking at this point so most of this is broadcast copy which has limitations. Games watched: 2022 Purdue, Nebraska, Michigan State, UVA
Coverage
Witherspoon breaks well on balls, both in man (which Illinois primarily plays) and in zone. Here he sits in zone at the goal line but breaks on 6’4″ Malachi Fields in the back of the endzone for a PBU.
Some knock Devon’s size, but again covering a bigger receiver, this time Michigan State’s leading WR, 6’4″ Keon Coleman.
On 4th and 2, Witherspoon breaks on a comeback route for a PBU and force a punt. We won’t know the coverage call, but Devon played off and the WR didn’t help his QB as he had more room to come back toward the pass. A better route and pass may complete, but it shows Devon’s anticipation, close speed, and ability to get a hand on the ball.
Run Stops
One of my favorite clips and it reminds me of Trent McDuffie’s famous cross-field tackle from last year. On 2nd and goal from the 7, Devon follows MSU’s Jayden Reed on an end-around across the field for a TFL.
Devon again shows his closing speed, coming downhill from 15 yards out to stop a QB scramble for no gain.
And the clip that everybody has seen by now where Devon jumps the RB screen and murders Indians’s Shaun Shivers.
Penalties
As mentioned above, Devon has had several DPIs called on him this season. He plays aggressive but I am not as concerned on there. A lot of corners will be grabby in routes, protecting themselves when beaten downfield or on change of direct. But I don’t see that with Devon.
This one was all over Twitter where Devon was called for DPI against Purdue’s thousand-yard receiver Charlie Jones. A flag was thrown so it is what it is, but this is good, tight coverage on a really good receiver. And if you watch to the end, I think this was more likely offensive pass interference as Jones grabs once Devon wins the inside position.
And another DPI on a quick goaline slant vs. UVA. Again, probably should have been a no-call. There were some hands, but all within 5 yards and just good coverage where he is able to slip in front of the receiver for the PBU.
Of the games I have watched, his DPIs are all this type where it is a tightly contested ball at the catch point, not where he is beaten and being grabby in the route.
Quality of opponents
It would be nice to see Illinois play Ohio State, but Devon has covered receivers like Purdue’s Charlie Jones, MSU’s Jayden Reed and Keon Coleman, UVA’s Keytaon Thompson and Dontayvion Wicks and for each, gave them one of their worst games of their seasons.
Take Charlie Jones, a 5th year senior who is the Purdue offense with 1,010 yards and 10 TDs in 10 games. Devon matched up all day against Jones and allowed 3/5 for 29 yards. He did have two DPIs, one of which is in the above clips and I believe is questionable (the other was DPI).
Joey Porter Jr (PSU): 5 for 58 yards and 1 DPI Garrett Williams (Syracuse): 6 for 152 yards, 1 TD
Intangibles
If you look at what Howie and Sirianni want it is players you would describe as:
While it will never come close to what teams have access to, I try to watch player interviews to understand the player. There are talented players that just aren’t “Eagles guys”. Devon fits what the Eagles look for.
As mentioned above, there is no lack of confidence. Devon explained “As an outside corner, you’re on an island by yourself. I live for that moment. That’s one-on-one; me versus you.”
This shows up on almost every play as you see Devon in receivers faces reminding them they are in for a tough day.
“This is a guy that literally wants to get into a street fight every pass play” J Leman, Big-10 analyst and All-American Illini linebacker, said about Devon on the Illini Inquirer podcast here.
And one last clip. Here Devon giving up 5 inches and 75 pounds, refuses to let Purdue’s Payne Durham pick up a critical 1st down, forcing a punt late in a one-score game.
And his defensive backs coach Aaron Henry spoke about his preparation. “I couldn’t have a better player in the room. He studies the game the right way. He’s up here late at night watching film. He can dang near tell you whatever formation that team’s in, their favorite concepts and what they like to do. Then just off of where the ball is on the field, he knows what concepts, routes, and things that he knows what they are before they happen. Devon is one of those guys.” Again this shows up watching his games as he will direct others pre-snap.
Draft projection
I’m not sure Howie will even look to the draft for a corner – he really hasn’t in his tenure in Philly. The Eagles will surely prioritize one of the top defensive linemen early in this draft so it makes sense to look at corners that could fall in a range where it is realistic that the Eagles may actually look for one.
Devon will end up going higher than where he is currently projected as a mid-day 2 guy. Corners are always drafted heavily and this corner class, in my opinion, doesn’t have the clear top guys like the past two seasons. I didn’t dive into the other guys but I have some concerns on short-area agility and ability to stay with receivers with some of the big name guys.
This past draft the following CBs went between picks R1-21 and R2-42: Trent McDuffie (after Sauce, my personal favorite last year), Kaiir Elam, Roger McCreary, Kyler Gordon, and Andrew Booth. With Devon improving on each area of his game in 2022, he should fall somewhere in this range.
Draft Profile: If the Eagles Want a CB in 2023, Devon Witherspoon is Who They Should Target
Devon Witherspoon fits what the Eagles look for in corners and will realistically be available with where they could prioritize a corner in this upcoming class.
“Spoon” started as an Eagle – a Pine Forest High School Eagle – and Philly should look hard at making him one again in the 2023 draft. I wrote here on what Philly’s roster priorities should be with, no surprise, defensive line and running back being the most obvious needs. Add in offensive line and Howie will likely continue to prioritize the positions he always has.
But corner is an emerging need as Bradberry may not be affordable to bring back, Slay is getting up in age, and the other CBs Howie has been collecting are unproven.
Corner is one of the hardest positions to hit on which is why I think Howie avoids it with top draft capital. Even in the 2021 draft, Adam Herman reported here that Howie feigned interest in Patrick Surtain and Jaycee Horn to land DeVonta Smith. But Howie now invests here – the Eagles are 13th this year in cap space spent on CBs and forecasted to be top in the league next year with Slay’s cap hit ballooning.
I don’t think this class has a top-10 or even top-15 pick like Sauce, Surtain, Horn, and Stingley the past couple of years. We get a lot of long corners this year, but I have worries on each of the current top guys. But one name I keep coming back to is Devon Witherspoon. Currently viewed as a day 2 guy (although I wouldn’t be surprised if his actual draft slot creeps up), “Spoon” may be the best value on day 2.
What others are saying
There are a million draft opinions and they are what they are, but including here some of the common themes others mention just so you know the public perspective on him. Some of these are only found on older evaluations which I have noted:
Physical, hyper-confident corner that serves him well but can get him in trouble with penalties
Some have concerns on size, but athletic with good speed. Likely to test better on agility than pure speed
Clean footwork, stays patient mirroring receivers with good short-area quickness
While he gets his hands on balls, he has not converted into interceptions
Gives up too many receptions per target (primarily on 2021 film evaluations)
Inconsistent technique, particularly in zone coverage (primarily on 2021 film evaluations)
Some concern on quality of opponents he has faced
Viewed anywhere from a 1st to 4th round prospect
Coverage stats
Devon didn’t start playing football until his junior year of high school and has markedly improved year after year. He is having his best year in 2022, playing at an elite level while matching up against the opponent’s best receiver every week.
36.8 passer rating against, 3rd best in this draft class and 6th in FBS. As a reminder, a QB throwing the ball into the ground generates a 39.6 passer rating. And he has done this with only 1 interception this year meaning he isn’t getting the benefit of turnovers pulling passer rating down, it is consistent coverage.
35% reception rate 2nd best in this class and down from 59% his junior year.
22% pass break up rate, 3rd best in this class behind Joey Porter Jr. and Eli Ricks and a higher rate than any of the corners in the 2022 draft class.
6th best run stop rate in this class with 13 run stops on 233 snaps. When you watch Devon play, his play anticipation and willingness to close jumps out.
2.00 YAC average allowed, 2nd best in this class behind Jaylon Jones and better than any 2022 corner drafted except Trent McDuffie.
5 penalties, which is a lot and weirdly this year, most of the top CB prospects have a high penalty rate (Kelee Ringo, Cam Smith, Jaylon Jones, Emmanuel Forbes, and Eli Ricks all have slightly higher rates). More on Devon’s penalties below with the film clips.
You obviously can’t just stare at numbers and have them guarantee success, but they do mean something. The 2022 corners that are succeeding in the league all stood out in some way. Sauce had an insanely low target rate and absurd 22.6 passer rating allowed… Trent McDuffie was elite on YAC allowed and 3rd best passer rating allowed… Tariq Woolen and Martin Emerson were solid across all stats.
Film clips
All-22 is severely lacking at this point so most of this is broadcast copy which has limitations. Games watched: 2022 Purdue, Nebraska, Michigan State, UVA
Coverage
Witherspoon breaks well on balls, both in man (which Illinois primarily plays) and in zone. Here he sits in zone at the goal line but breaks on 6’4″ Malachi Fields in the back of the endzone for a PBU.
Some knock Devon’s size, but again covering a bigger receiver, this time Michigan State’s leading WR, 6’4″ Keon Coleman.
On 4th and 2, Witherspoon breaks on a comeback route for a PBU and force a punt. We won’t know the coverage call, but Devon played off and the WR didn’t help his QB as he had more room to come back toward the pass. A better route and pass may complete, but it shows Devon’s anticipation, close speed, and ability to get a hand on the ball.
Run Stops
One of my favorite clips and it reminds me of Trent McDuffie’s famous cross-field tackle from last year. On 2nd and goal from the 7, Devon follows MSU’s Jayden Reed on an end-around across the field for a TFL.
Devon again shows his closing speed, coming downhill from 15 yards out to stop a QB scramble for no gain.
And the clip that everybody has seen by now where Devon jumps the RB screen and murders Indians’s Shaun Shivers.
Penalties
As mentioned above, Devon has had several DPIs called on him this season. He plays aggressive but I am not as concerned on there. A lot of corners will be grabby in routes, protecting themselves when beaten downfield or on change of direct. But I don’t see that with Devon.
This one was all over Twitter where Devon was called for DPI against Purdue’s thousand-yard receiver Charlie Jones. A flag was thrown so it is what it is, but this is good, tight coverage on a really good receiver. And if you watch to the end, I think this was more likely offensive pass interference as Jones grabs once Devon wins the inside position.
And another DPI on a quick goaline slant vs. UVA. Again, probably should have been a no-call. There were some hands, but all within 5 yards and just good coverage where he is able to slip in front of the receiver for the PBU.
Of the games I have watched, his DPIs are all this type where it is a tightly contested ball at the catch point, not where he is beaten and being grabby in the route.
Quality of opponents
It would be nice to see Illinois play Ohio State, but Devon has covered receivers like Purdue’s Charlie Jones, MSU’s Jayden Reed and Keon Coleman, UVA’s Keytaon Thompson and Dontayvion Wicks and for each, gave them one of their worst games of their seasons.
Take Charlie Jones, a 5th year senior who is the Purdue offense with 1,010 yards and 10 TDs in 10 games. Devon matched up all day against Jones and allowed 3/5 for 29 yards. He did have two DPIs, one of which is in the above clips and I believe is questionable (the other was DPI).
Joey Porter Jr (PSU): 5 for 58 yards and 1 DPI Garrett Williams (Syracuse): 6 for 152 yards, 1 TD
Intangibles
If you look at what Howie and Sirianni want it is players you would describe as:
While it will never come close to what teams have access to, I try to watch player interviews to understand the player. There are talented players that just aren’t “Eagles guys”. Devon fits what the Eagles look for.
As mentioned above, there is no lack of confidence. Devon explained “As an outside corner, you’re on an island by yourself. I live for that moment. That’s one-on-one; me versus you.”
This shows up on almost every play as you see Devon in receivers faces reminding them they are in for a tough day.
“This is a guy that literally wants to get into a street fight every pass play” J Leman, Big-10 analyst and All-American Illini linebacker, said about Devon on the Illini Inquirer podcast here.
And one last clip. Here Devon giving up 5 inches and 75 pounds, refuses to let Purdue’s Payne Durham pick up a critical 1st down, forcing a punt late in a one-score game.
And his defensive backs coach Aaron Henry spoke about his preparation. “I couldn’t have a better player in the room. He studies the game the right way. He’s up here late at night watching film. He can dang near tell you whatever formation that team’s in, their favorite concepts and what they like to do. Then just off of where the ball is on the field, he knows what concepts, routes, and things that he knows what they are before they happen. Devon is one of those guys.” Again this shows up watching his games as he will direct others pre-snap.
Draft projection
I’m not sure Howie will even look to the draft for a corner – he really hasn’t in his tenure in Philly. The Eagles will surely prioritize one of the top defensive linemen early in this draft so it makes sense to look at corners that could fall in a range where it is realistic that the Eagles may actually look for one.
Devon will end up going higher than where he is currently projected as a mid-day 2 guy. Corners are always drafted heavily and this corner class, in my opinion, doesn’t have the clear top guys like the past two seasons. I didn’t dive into the other guys but I have some concerns on short-area agility and ability to stay with receivers with some of the big name guys.
This past draft the following CBs went between picks R1-21 and R2-42: Trent McDuffie (after Sauce, my personal favorite last year), Kaiir Elam, Roger McCreary, Kyler Gordon, and Andrew Booth. With Devon improving on each area of his game in 2022, he should fall somewhere in this range.
WagerWire Report: The Eagles A.J. Brown is unapologetically who he and YOU need him to be
Some athletes who come to Philadelphia have found it to be a difficult transition, whereas others have fit like a glove from day one.
A.J. Brown is in the latter category. He has immersed himself into the community, stood up for his teammates, and even bought jerseys for some fans at a local sports shop.
His dedication to the sport he loves is only surpassed by the joy and energy he brings to the team day in and out. And he has proven that since the day he arrived.
“I want them to know I’m a hard worker, I’m a team guy, not a me guy”
His teammates, coaches, and fans have acknowledged his dedication and embraced him in a short time, as few athletes have been before him.
But, like most everyone else, he has had his share of challenges in life.
AJ is as outspoken and sincere in sharing the hardships as he is relishing in his triumphs.
His journey to becoming a Philadelphia Eagle was sometimes challenging, but he has persevered and been willing to share his struggle in the hopes of helping others.
Brotherly love has always been at his core.
Path to the NFL:
Brown attended Starkville High School in Mississippi, where he played both baseball and football. His work ethic was legendary starting at a very young age, and he credits his family with the way he was raised for developing those disciplines.
“From my parents, both parents, my mom, and my dad. They work extremely hard”
The hard work and relentless attention to detail paid off. Playing football as a senior at Starkville High, AJ had 83 receptions for 1371 yards and 13 touchdowns. He’d also lead his team to a state championship. His play earned him first-team all-state by the USA today.
As I mentioned earlier, he also played baseball. And played it well.
“I was a really good hitter, I had a good bat.”
The Padres agreed. During the 2016 MLB draft, AJ was drafted by San Diego to play as an outfielder. He signed with the Padres which excluded him from playing college baseball. But he was still eligible to play football at the collegiate level.
AJ stated that choosing football came down to a pretty simple reason.
“Scoring touchdowns man, you know. I’d rather score a TD than hit an HR”
Mississippi State fans bemoaned AJ’s choice of playing at Ole Miss, which is 2 hours away, rather than playing for his hometown college, but AJ had his reasons.
“It was kinda too close (to home) and the coach didn’t really recruit me,” Brown said. “He just expected I was going to come.”
While Mississippi St. may have expected him to sign, other programs were not as confident and tried to buy his services.
“The night before signing day, I got a knock on the door, bag full of money in the front. Swear to God. They kinda tried to leave and we like, ‘Nah, we good, bro. We don’t need this.’ I swear.”
Ole Miss and their fans were happy he chose them.
Brown wasted little time showing what he could do. As a freshman, AJ opened a lot of eyes playing in 11 games and scoring two touchdowns. Years two and three brought even more production.
He ended his collegiate career after his junior year with 189 receptions for 2984 yards and 19 TDS.
His resume’ and reputation paved the way for him to be a highly coveted receiver for NFL teams in need when Brown declared for the draft.
Mississippi St wide receiver A.J. Brown (1) is being defended by current Eagle teammate, and then LSU Tiger cornerback, Kary Vincent Jr.
Brown was selected by the Tennessee Titans in the second round of the 2019 draft with the 51st overall pick.
AJ immediately established himself as the Titan’s top receiving playmaker. His statistics during his first three seasons in the NFL have mirrored that of his college stats, but with even more touchdowns.
Brown reeled in 185 receptions for 2995 yards (an impressive 16.2 yards per catch average) and 24 touchdowns.
Despite being very productive and a fan favorite in Tennessee, his time there was coming to an end due to an impasse in contract negotiations.
Brown stated“I just wanted my work to be appreciated”
Once it became known in league circles that AJ would be available via trade, Eagles GM Howie Roseman was salivating for a chance to acquire him.
He would eventually get his chance.
But first, Brown had to heal from a personal challenge that few knew he faced.
Mental Health:
From an outsider looking in, things seemed to be going great. AJ Brown is one of the best young receivers in the game, making money, and well-liked, but inside AJ Brown was missing something and hurting. The pain was almost becoming more than he could bear. In November of 2020, Brown stated that he thought about taking his own life.
“I had no more hope for better days and everything was just going wrong for me,”
On November 12, 2021, AJ went public regarding his thoughts of taking his own life in a very open Tik Tok post that he shared with the world. It was on the first anniversary of his
“I just wanted to put out a positive message that I’m still here. I’m still growing. I’m still learning. I’m blessed. I’ve got a lot of things to be grateful for and someone was there for me. So reach out to your loved ones and ask them how they’re doing and listen to them, you know, because it’s important.”
#Titans WR A.J. Brown with a powerful message on his Instagram and TikTok about depression, mental health and self-harm…you never know what someone is going through on the inside. Good on him for this 🙏🏼 pic.twitter.com/1uiy6Wlicx
It took courage and bravery to come out but AJ knew the importance of sharing.
“Be there for someone because someone was there for me. God told him all the right things to say to me that night. Take depression seriously. Take how you feel and how you handle situations seriously. Life happens to all of us but you’re not too tough to talk to someone and get things off your chest. Life is a beautiful thing and everyone should be able to live it to the fullest.”
A year after going public with his struggle, AJ looks back with pride and optimism.
“I felt like I made an impact, in helping people out. So many people reached out and that made me feel really proud of myself for speaking up. I am in a great place now. I have someone I speak to every other week. to keep it fresh, and it’s important.”
He was also ready to move forward with football, and to a new city.
Philadelphia Eagles:
Draft night 2022, Howie and the Eagles finally landed their guy.
The Eagles traded one of their 2022 first-round picks (number 18)and one of their two third-round picks (number 101) to the Tennessee Titans during the 2022 NFL draft, for A.J. Brown. AJ then immediately signed an extension with the Eagles that added 4 years 100 million dollars with 57 million guaranteed.
The Eagle’s general manager, Howie Roseman, described the team’s desire to acquire Brown.
“Was it a priority to get a wide receiver? It was a priority to get the right players. This for us was the right player, this was the right fit. I can’t tell you we were going to definitely draft a receiver in the first round. We had some other players that we were looking at here. I think we felt like this particular player, this particular person, the fit was really good for what we had and what we were looking for.”
Brown shares in the excitement of his role this season with the Birds.
“You know what, after I got traded I placed myself on the Eagles on Madden, and I started playing as myself and I just started visualizing, and you know I’m really excited.”
He isn’t just visualizing he also exudes the legendary work ethic I mentioned earlier that he learned from his parents as a child.
“The preparation before the season pushing myself past exhaustion, each offseason, training like a pro, thinking like a pro, just being a student”
The hard work has paid off through the first 9 games of the season. A.J. has 44 receptions for 725 yards and 6 touchdowns. And the chemistry with Jalen Hurts has proven to be as strong on the field as off.
“I get to play with my best friend. It’s going to be real special”
So far, it’s been really special. It’s almost been perfect, and he and the team know there is a lot of work, fun, and football left if they want to be the team that hoists a Lombardi trophy in February.
And as much as he wants the team and fans to celebrate with a parade on Broad st, he also wants to bring awareness to mental health.
“I just want to encourage everyone to protect your mental, talk to someone, get things off your chest, do things that make you happy. It’s so important. I didn’t think depression was real until it happened to me, but now I know it’s really real. Guys, just talk to someone, get things off your chest, and take depression seriously.”
A.J. is unapologetically staying true to who he is, and he wants the best for himself and YOU!
“You need to look out for one another,” Brown said. “I know we play this beautiful game, but you know, life is beautiful.”
Indeed it is.
If you or someone you know is in immediate crisis, call the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline at 1–800–273–8255 for 24/7 access to a trained counselor. You can also contact the Crisis Text Line by texting “HOME” to 741741. For more information about ongoing support and mental health resources, contact HelpLine at the National Alliance on Mental Illness by calling 1–800–950-NAMI (6264) or emailing info@nami.org.
