BRANDON SMITH* Brian Asamoah Jojo Domann1 Troy Anderson
RACHAAD WHITE Brian Robinson
R5
Matt Henningsen
Martin Emerson Mario Goodrich Damarri Mathis
Velus Jones1
Nick Cross
Alec Lindstrom MATT WALETZKO
Jeremy Ruckert Jelani Woods1 Cole Turner
KYRON JOHNSON Jesse Luketa* Jeremiah Gemmel
Hassan Haskins KEAONTAY INGRAM
JORDAN STOUT Matt Araiza
R6
Michael Clemons
Joshua Williams Damarion Williams
Tyquan Thornton
Jean Delance
D’MARCO JACKSON
R7-PFA
Jayden Peevy Noah Ellis
Decobie Durant
Tre Turner
JOEY BLOUNT JT Woods
Devin Cochran Austin Deculus
Jerrion Ealy Kennedy Brooks
Jake Camarda
GREEN BOLDED are my target players considering positional priority and round * players with confirmed Eagles top 30 visits 1 players 24 years old as rookies
Player Notes
Including notes on select players (priority Eagles players, players I am higher/lower on than others).
Wide Receiver: R1 Favorites: Jameson Williams, Garrett Wilson, Jahan Dotson (later R1) R2 Favorites: Skyy Moore Later round favorites: Calvin Austin, Velus Jones (special teams), Tyquan Thornton
TP/G (Rank)
YRR (Rank)
YAC/R
TYA (Rank)
BMT (Rank)
Jameson Williams
2.7 (6)
3.5 (6)
9.5 (3)
5.33 (2)
0.16 (23)
Garrett Wilson
3.5 (2)
3.2 (10)
6.1 (21)
0.41 (32)
0.29 (3)
Treylon Burks
2.3 (13)
4.0 (1)
9.6 (2)
4.78 (4)
0.24 (8)
Jahan Dotson
3.3 (3)
2.8 (21)
5.5 (25)
2.26 (12)
0.10 (36)
Chris Olave
1.8 (23)
2.5 (31)
4.2 (37)
-1.09 (38)
0.05 (43)
Skyy Moore
3.8 (1)
3.6 (5)
5.7 (25)
1.18 (23)
0.32 (2)
Khalil Shakir
2.6 (8)
3.1 (12)
6.1 (21)
2.48 (11)
0.18 (18)
Calvin Austin
2.3 (13)
3.2 (10)
7.2 (11)
1.62 (20)
0.18 (18)
Velus Jones
1.3 (30)
3.1 (12)
8.4 (6)
1.14 (24)
0.34 (1)
Total Points per Game (TP/G) is similar to WAR and represents impact of a player on overall game. Yards per route run (YRR) is a view on both performance and ability to get targeted in passing. Target Yards Added (TYA) is a view on what a receiver adds to the offense compared to other receivers on the team. Broken and Missed Tackles per route (BMT) is a view on how a receiver creates.
Tight End: R3 Favorites: Charlie Kolar, Trey McBride Later round favorites: Cole Turner
TP/G (Rank)
YRR (Rank)
YAC/R
PassBB (Rank)
RunBB (Rank)
Trey McBride
4.0 (1)
2.8 (3)
5.1 (14)
0% (T1)
0.16 (23)
Charlie Kolar
2.8 (4)
2.3 (5)
4.0 (21)
1.6% (18)
0.29 (3)
Greg Dulcich
2.4 (9)
2.0 (10)
7.0 (6)
1.9% (21)
0.24 (8)
Jeremy Ruckert
1.3 (21)
1.0 (21)
6.0 (9)
0.9% (13)
0.10 (36)
Jelani Woods
1.4 (19)
1.9 (11)
4.9 (17)
0% (T1)
0.05 (43)
Cole Turner
2.0 (12)
1.6 (17)
3.3 (24)
0% (T1)
0.32 (2)
Total Points per Game (TP/G) is similar to WAR and represents impact of a player on overall game. Yards per route run (YRR) is a view on both performance and ability to get targeted in passing. YAC per reception (YAC/R) Pass blown block percentage (PassBB) measures how often a block was blown in pass protection Run blown block percentage (RunBB) measures how often a block was blown in run game Broken and Missed Tackles per route (BMT) is a view on how a receiver creates.
Cornerback: Outside if Sauce and Stingley (who I am not including because they will be gone by 15), I am less sure on the CBs than last year (Greg Newsome as a mid/late R1 pick).
The following are 5 Eagles players with a current ADP lower than their expected return on your round investment. These players could propel you towards hoisting your fantasy league trophy in 2022. Read more
With the Eagles drafting Jordan Davis, I took a look at nose tackles and their value in modern defenses, why they are being sought out nd increasingly paid, and how they impact the game. Read more
My prioritized list of draft targets for the Eagles including who I would trade up for, who I would prioritize at 15 & 18, targets between our 18 and 51 picks, and the remaining rounds. Read more
Possible suitors include trading up from pick 15 with the Panthers, Jets or Seahawks, and or trading down from 18th with the Green Bay Packers. Other options are on the table as well. Read more
The 2002 draft was by far the Eagles best draft since 2000 with five long-term starters coming out of the draft. And, it is famously known as the draft where the Eagles doubled up (actually tripled up) on secondary. Where could they double up this year? Read more
A quick look at the large number of older prospects in the 2022 draft class, what history shows on if they fall and their value, and what it may mean for several of the high profile 24 year olds this year. Read more
What if they Eagles walk away from the draft with a round 1 tackle, the top running back, and a day 2 tight end? It's almost impossible to find any of these mocked to the Eagles at top picks but there are realistic scenarios where this is how the board falls. And while different from consensus, these would make the Eagles much, much better. Read more
So can Jalen turn things around in his third season to even be a 3rd or 4th WR option in the Eagles 2022 offense? We would first need to know what went wrong with Reagor last year and how to fix it. Read more
2023 Philadelphia Eagles Pre Camp 53-man Roster Projection
Offense (24)
QB (3)
Jalen Hurts
Marcus Mariota
Tanner McKee
RB (4)
D’Andre Swift
Rashaad Penny
Kenney Gainwell
Boston Scott
Fighting- Trey Sermon
WR (5)
AJ Brown
Devonta Smith
Quez Watkins
Britain Covey
Joseph Ngata
Sleeper- Olamide Zaccheaus
TE (3)
Dallas Goedert
Jack Stoll
Grant Calcaterra
Fighting- Tyree Jackson
OL (9)
Jason Kelce
Lane Johnson
Jordan Mailata
Landon Dickerson
Cam Jurgens
Tyler Steen
Jack Driscoll
Fred Johnson
*Sua Opeta or Dennis Kelly
*** Eagles signed Josh Andrews and reinstated Josh Sills after this was written. One or both could make the roster at the expense of Opeta or more likely Kelly. ***
Defense (26)
DL (9)
Brandon Graham
Josh Sweat
Tarron Jackson
Milton Williams
Fletcher Cox
Jordan Davis
Jalen Carter
Derek Barnett
Moro Ojomo
Fighting- Kentavius Street
LB (6)
Nakobe Dean
Nicholas Morrow
Christian Elliss
Haason Reddick
Nolan Smith
Patrick Johnson
Signed after this writing & fighting for roster spot:
Myles Jack and Zach Cunningham.
Cunningham is my guess as to taking someone roster spot
S (4)
Reed Blankenship
Terrell Edmunds
Sydney Brown
K’Von Wallace
Fighting- Justin Evans
CB (7)
Big Play Slay
James Bradberry
Avonte Maddox
Zech McPhearson
Kelee Ringo
Mekhi Garner
Josh Jobe
Sleeper- Eli Ricks, likely practice squad bound. Mario Goodrich could fight for the slot corner spot.
***Zech out for the year, Goodrich is my guess to take his spot***
ST (3)
P Arryn Siposs
K Jake Elliot
LS Rick Lovato
Fighting- Ty Zentner
As always, thank you for reading.
David
7/17/2023
Follow me @PHLEagleNews
Follow Greg @greghartpa
Follow us @PhillyCvrCorner
Cam “Beef Jurgy” Jurgens: Philadelphia Eagle OL, Farmer, Entrepreneur and Foodie
Aug 12, 2022; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Eagles center Cam Jurgens (51) during warmups against the New York Jets at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
It’s hard to believe Cam Jurgens had more important things on his mind when the Eagles selected him in the second round of the 2022 NFL draft, but finding shelter in his grandmother’s basement at her home in Pickerel, Nebraska from a tornado would qualify.
Draft Night
The night Jurgens was drafted he was unable to do a video chat after being selected due to a tornado warning causing him to not have WIFI.
Nebraska…
“Oh, my God, it was wild. About 10 minutes before I got picked, everybody’s phone is buzzing. My phone buzzed (for a tornado warning). I get picked, and we’re upstairs celebrating, and all of a sudden we hear this loud thunder and lightning outside. I’m like ‘all right, guys, we have to go downstairs now.’”
It was such a special night, that not everyone was on board to flee to safer surroundings, tornado warning or not.
“Grandma was like, ‘No, it’s been a great night. I’m not moving.”
Gotta love Grandma!
One would be hard-pressed to find a wilder draft night story.
“I gotta think I’m going to remember that for a long time. It was excitement, then all of a sudden chaos of a tornado, and thunder and lightning, and hail coming in. It was crazy.”
So if fans thought that the Eagle’s drafting competition, in the form of another OL in the 3rd round was going to rattle him, think again.
Eagles
Fortifying the lines is a core belief. I write about it every year when discussing the Eagles’ draft strategy. Fans like to mention every skill position player available, yet every year Howie shows you who is once again, by building through the trenches.
In 2022, when Philadelphia was on the board with their second-round pick #51, many fans, and talking heads during the draft, stated the Eagles should select Nakobe Dean.
(How they still drafted him a round later is a story all in itself).
Roseman actually stated he considered Dean at 51 but stuck to his belief, and stayed in the trenches by selecting Nebraska center Cam Jurgens.
Cam essentially had a redshirt season. He was brought in to eventually become Jason Kelces’ self-appointed successor.
But, the Eagles have a QB by the name of Jalen Hurts who is changing retirement plans and causing free agents to think twice about leaving.
Chasing rings is hard to walk away from, and the Eagles reaching the Super Bowl last year, makes it even harder as the hope of how good this team could be, became a reality.
So in 2023, when Kelce announced he was coming back, the Eagles had already anticipated such a decision and had countered by having Cam practice both guard and center last season.
Jurgens, and the Birds, were determined to make sure he was prepared to take over at RG when Isaac Seumalo left via free agency.
The Eagles love Jurgens, and he was always projected to get on the field this year, for one position or another.
Having to be ready to play multiple positions is not anything new to Cam, he’s been doing it since High School.
Growing up
Cam, the youngest of three children, is from Beatrice, Nebraska, where he worked on the family farm raising cattle, corn, and beans.
He was also developing the work ethic and character that follows him to this day.
Bryan Cook, a teacher, and longtime broadcaster in Beatrice
“All the talent he’s got, it’s still about the person he is. Not the athlete he is. It’s all from his mom and his dad and his family.”
The life lessons he learned on the farm in Nebraska, such as being prepared, working hard, and soaking in every bit of knowledge he could, serve him well in the game of football too.
Beatrice High School
Jurgens was a jack of all trades, playing fullback, linebacker, tight end, and even punter.
A natural athlete and hard worker, Cam has always been unfazed by being asked to do different chores or to play different positions.
Cam played basketball for his HS, where he was an all-state honorable mention selection, and he was a member of the track team, for which he won a state title in 2018, as well as being a four-time state champion in the discus and three-time champion in the shot put. Which runs in the family.
His mother Beth is a 12-time NAIA All-American at Nebraska-Kearney. She is in the school’s hall of fame by earning seven national titles, setting the indoor shot put record and the NAIA national championship discus record.
But excelling at football is Cam’s thing.
Jurgens earned Second Team All-State honors as a sophomore, and First Team All-State as a junior.
Even after missing half of the games his senior year due to an injury, he still ended up with 57 tackles and 1 interception on defense, while contributing 318 rushing yards, 277 receiving yards, and 8 touchdowns on offense.
He also was awarded another All-State honor.
Cam played at 245 pounds in high school as the team’s tight end, but unbeknownst to him as he made his way to Lincoln, he was about to be asked to play a position that he had never played nor even taken a snap.
College
Coming out of high school, Jurgens was ranked as the number seven tight end in the 2018 recruiting class, and number one in his home state.
Despite all of those accolades, and having no experience at the position, Nebraska Head Coach Scott Frost thought Jurgens could use his “nasty streak” and be turned into a dominating center.
So, in the spring practices of 2019, Frost did just that, by having Jurgens make the transition from tight end to center.
He would go on to start 31 out of a possible 32 games and play 2,067 snaps at the position.
Per PFF, in 1,016 pass-blocking snaps, Cam allowed 1 sack and a meager 4 QB hits in his 3 seasons as a starter.
This was good enough to be Nebraska’s highest-graded OL with the best pass and run-blocking grades.
He also performed well at the Combine.
Cam was the 5th fastest OL with a 4.92 40-yard and showed off his strength by pumping out 25 bench reps (225 lbs).
All of the hard work translated into Cam being the highest-drafted player from Nebraska, of the decade.
College scouts and NFL teams were taking notice, including former Eagles VP of player personnel, Andy Weidl.
“All those things that we like, that our offensive linemen do, we saw in Cam.”
Andy also stated that Jurgens does everything Stoutland likes an OL to do.
And Stoutland has a very persuasive voice.
So does the player he will eventually take the position of center from.
Praise
Jason Kelce
“He’s my favorite center prospect of the last 3-to-5 years, I think he can be special. I’m excited to work with him. This kid offers a seamless transition, same type of player, with exceptional upside. It’s hard to explain why I think he’s so good, it comes down to how he moves and looks. He bends well, opens his hips, is very strong for his size, is an incredible athlete for his size. On top of that, just a great temperament, solid workhorse, lunch-pail mentality.”
“I’m pretty excited about the kid,” Kelce said. “I liked him a lot. I like his tools. I like his mentality. I think I’ve looked at a few guys the past couple years when they’ve asked my opinions. He’s here obviously because [offensive line coach] Jeff Stoutland and Howie Roseman, Nick Sirianni, all these people, watched his tape and really believe in him. I think, although he does have a lot of similar traits to me, he’s going to be his own player, and I’m looking forward to helping out any of these young guys, in particular Cam.”
“Out of all the guys that compare the most to myself, this guy is him.” Jason Kelce
Can’t get much higher praise.
What Cam, and Kelce, lack in strength and size when they go against larger DLs, they make up for with their knowledge of the game and their technique.
Jurgens like Kelce, can also get to the second level down the field, and on stretch plays, he can be seen getting to the third level too. There is no quit.
Here’s @HuskerFBNation center Cam Jurgens escorting an Oklahoma defender 34 yards after the point of engagement—and making it look easy. Have a great Wednesday! pic.twitter.com/v1gsyyHLL0
When he is not eating his “Beef Jurgy” Cam likes to enjoy a bowl of chili with a side of cinnamon rolls, IYKYK.
If you don’t, look it up.
Surprisingly delicious.
Cam Jurgens; football player, entrepreneur, and Nebraskan foodie.
As Always, Thank You for reading!
David
Follow me @PHLEagleNews
Follow us @PhillyCvrCorner
Follow Greg @GregHartPA
5/4/23
WagerWire Report: We Are Either Living Through a Punting Renaissance in the NFL or We Have a Juiced Ball
If you have been here before, you know I wrote a ton about punters last year. All the talk of the now-fallen punt god overshadowed that last year’s rookie punter class was going to be one the best punter draft classes in 20 years with 3 or 4 draftable punters (Jordan Stout, Jake Camarda, Ryan Stonehouse, and Araiza). And this class is not disappointing.
There are no false gods in this rookie punter class
My top punter, Jordan Stout, was taken with pick 130 and has gotten off to a slow start by his standards but has been one of the top-rated punters over the past several weeks, adding 2.8 yards per punt and a tenth of a second in hangtime over his college averages.
Eight weeks in, the star of this class is Ryan Stonehouse though. I admittedly way underrated Stonehouse as he benefited from punting at elevation 70% of the time in college which added almost 3 yards to his average vs. punts, not at elevation. But so far in the NFL, Stonehouse is on pace to mash the NFL record, averaging 2.5 yards better than the record set in 1940. He had the distance in college but the big improvement is with his hangtime, averaging a quarter-second more per punt.
Credit to Ian at Puntalytics, the best source out there for punting analytics, for his 2022 season preview where he nailed both Stonehouse and the rookie class in general:
Camarda, the second punter taken in the 4th round just 3 picks after Stout, is right up there too, matching his 46.7 average in college but somehow adding an obnoxious 0.4 seconds of hangtime playing down in Tampa.
Add in Ryan Wright and Trenton Gill, two undrafted punters that weren’t on most people’s lists, and you have five rookie punters all finding success.
But it’s not just the rookie punters…
But as I looked at the rookie punters’ data, I saw something that surprised me. It is the entire league that is better this year.
The league is averaging an absurd 1.75 yards per punt higher average and reversed a 1 decline in hangtime with the 3rd highest average hang time. Below shows punt distance (x-axis) and hangtime (y-axis) to show how much of an outlier 2022 is so far.
Note: all of the data below uses only weeks 1–8 of each season to factor temperature out at much as possible, since punting suffers in colder weather. Pulling in full-season data for past years improves in 2022 similar but even a bit more impressive.
If you separate the rookies from the rest of the league, it’s clear the rookies are making this a special year with the five averaging a draft-capital-justifying 3 yards better than the past decade averages. But if you pull out the rookies, the rest of the league is still having an all-time year, averaging 1.6 yards per punt more.
Below shows the 2022 split between the rookies and non-rookies with both punting a ton further than any year in the past decade.
This year is the biggest jump in distance in a decade
Punters have been slowly adding distance, but this year punters have had the largest gain in distance in a decade. This season has added 1.02 yards per punt, almost double the next-best year (0.67 yards in 2019).
And reversed a long trend of declining hangtime with a massive jump
Hangtime, which is overlooked by most when valuing punts, has been declining for a decade but jumped a massive 0.16 seconds per punt, more than double the next-best season.
Only two seasons over the past 10 years have even seen an increase in hangtime and both were modest improvements. And it isn’t just the top punters pulling the average up — 74% of punters have improved their hangtime from last year. Only one other year was close (65% in 2019) with the rest of the past decade having fewer than 40% of punters improving their hang time.
Hangtime and distance are usually competing metrics that trade off so it is even more impressive that both have increased so much in 2022.
What explains this punting Renaissance?
Juiced ball. Kidding. Maybe.
One thing I wondered is if changes in how punting are used today — less frequent punting from short fields and 4th-and-shorts — are impacting this. More short-field punts should drive up hangtime as punters look to place punts deep.
While punts per game are expectedly down, the average field position from which punts are attempted has not changed at all, staying steady around a team’s own 33 or 34-yard line over the past decade.
Bonus: A quick look at the 2023 draft
It’s early, but for those whose teams may need a punter, a quick look at the 2023 class. I haven’t looked anywhere near close enough and it will be difficult to match the 2022 punter class. But there are a couple of interesting punters coming out and two that are draftable:
Michael Turk — Oklahoma Turk will most likely be near the top of draft lists and probably the best-known name along with Rutger’s Adam Korsak. He is having a bit of a down year with both his hangtime (4.14 seconds) and distance (45.8 yards) down from his college averages. He gives no room for returns. Here he is last year with a 91-yarder.
Brad Robbins — Michigan My favorite at this point. He has the best combination of hangtime (4.32) and distance (45.5) in this class, doesn’t allow much return yardage, and rarely puts balls into the endzone.
As always, thank you for reading
Follow us @PhillyCvrCorner @GregHartPA @PHLEagleNews
The Day After; Philadelphia Eagles 2022 Initial 53-Man Roster, Youth Movement
The Eagles have overhauled their roster from one of the oldest in the league to one with an exciting group of talented young players. Most of these players are under contract for 2 or more seasons.
As impressive, is the fact that 10 of the projected offensive starters are all homegrown draft picks. A.J. Brown is the only outlier.
The roster consists of 33 players that were drafted by the Eagles, and the importance of developing your own can not be overstated. There are also 3 undrafted free agents added this season; Josh Sills, Reed Blankenship, and Josh Jobe. The remaining 17 players arrived via trade, free agency, etc.
The new Georgia additions are the youngest on the roster at 21 (Nakobe Dean) and 22 (Jordan Davis) followed by a whopping 10 players aged 23, including Alabama products DeVonta Smith and Jalen Hurts. Bookending the roster are 2 all-time greats, age 34, Brandon Graham and Jason Kelce.
Only 5 players on the initial 53-man roster are over the age of 30.
This is quite a turnaround from a roster devoid of young talent just 2 short seasons ago.
Eagles general manager Howie Roseman has done a really good job of signing their young core guys to team-friendly extensions. Coupled with the last two drafts, the roster is looking to be one of the more promising during his regime.
The Eagles seem to have the beginnings of a very good, long-term, nucleus in place. Especially if current starting QB Jalen Hurts improves as expected.
For those who doubt Jalen, if he doesn’t pan out, the Eagles are positioned with 2 first-round picks in the 2023 draft to select the QB of their choice.
As always, Thank You for reading
David
8/31/22
5 Philadelphia Eagles To Procure On Your Fantasy Rosters
The NFL season is always a grind and having healthy players goes a long way to winning that coveted title in fantasy, as it does in real life. Having players providing a value higher than their average draft position does as well.
The following are 5 Eagles players with a current ADP lower than their expected return on your round investment. These players could propel you towards hoisting your fantasy league trophy in 2022.
AJ missed 5 games last year and still ended the season with 63 receptions on 105 targets for 869 yards and 5 touchdowns.
A change of scenery, coupled with the Eagle’s focus to upgrade the passing game, should enable Brown to have an uptick in production. He should also be utilized in the red zone more in Philadelphia than he was with the Titans.
His current ADP is averaging between the 28–35th overall player selected, and the 12th wideout being taken off the board.
Last season DeVonta finished as the 30th overall receiver in point-per-reception formats. The Eagles adding number one receiver AJ Brown doesn’t seem to lead one to believe his numbers will increase, but I think otherwise.
Smith is currently being drafted between the 80th and 85th overall player selected. This makes him a mid-thirties receiver. I would expect more than that and more points than he had last year. His targets shouldn’t decrease with the arrival of Brown (those will be at the expense of Reagor and others) and not having to face every team’s number one DB should lead to more production.
Dallas may not get the number of targets needed to be a top-tier fantasy tight end (newcomer AJ Brown should get over 100)but the game plan should still allow for an average of 6–7 a week. He is currently being drafted 79th overall which is 8th overall for tight ends. He could surpass that, especially if he exceeds the number of projected targets due to an injury, etc.
The fan base might be divided as to the outcome they expect from Jalen Hurts this season, but fantasy owners should enjoy the doubters causing his lower value on draft boards.
His current ADP is in the late to mid-sixties, while being the 7–10th ranked fantasy QB heading into the season. The rushing yards and touchdowns will always be a part of his game, and the passing game should increase this season with the addition of WR1 AJ Brown.
Gainwell’s current ADP is 142, as the 48th running back that’s been drafted overall. If healthy, he should deliver a much larger value than a projected RB3. If Miles Sanders fights injuries as he did in 2021, or doesn’t score a touchdown all season again, Gainwell could become a very valuable member of your fantasy roster. He comes into the season as a BIG sleeper, with potential starter upside.
Projected Fantasy Value
94 Rushes 482 yards and 6 TDs
37 Receptions 433 yards and 2 TDs
As always, Thank you for reading
7/23/22
Follow me @PHLEagleNews
Are Jordan Davis and Nose Tackles a New Premium Position?
When the Eagles drafted Jordan Davis, there were more people dismissing the pick than I expected, citing the lack of positional value of a non-pass rusher (and one that people think will only be on the field for 20-30 snaps a game). I wanted to look at how the league, and specifically the Fangio / Staley defenses that are taking over, view nose tackles.
While nose tackles aren’t quite going to compete with receivers and edge rushers for premium position status, their priority is changing because of their importance in making these defenses work.
The Fangio defense is spreading but results are mixed
The Vic Fangio and offshoot defenses are spreading across the NFL, with the Rams, Packers, Bears, and Chargers hiring Fangio disciples over the past few years. Last season, the Eagles brought in Sirianni and Brandon Staley’s childhood friend and like-minded defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon. This offseason, there is further movement as longtime Bears defensive coach Sean Desai goes to Seattle as their assistant head coach and Ed Donatell, who worked with Fangio three different times, was hired by Minnesota as defensive coordinator.
In the NFL arms race, these defenses are a reaction to the wide zone offenses that rose over the past 10 years. They are complex and fascinating defenses that are sometimes viewed as shifting focus from run defense to pass defense, which isn’t quite accurate. To me, these defenses attempt to make opposing offenses work harder across the board.
Two-high safety shells that drop an additional player into coverage and bring flexibility into coverage schemes to eliminate explosive plays
Light boxes with gap-and-a-half fronts to pressure with less and encourage offenses to run
Structured run fits that make the different levels of the defense work together
A couple of examples from @WeeklySpiral who has a great, longer breakdown of the Fangio defense. This first clip demonstrates Staley’s Tite front with three defensive linemen inside the tackles and five on the line vs. six blockers, the nose consuming a double-team, two linebackers and two-high safety where Taylor Rapp is responsible for the run fit to the open B-gap.
And a second clip showing the flexibility and complexity of the backend coverage and how it relates to the pressure – initial two-high look that rotates coverage post-snap, a rare corner blitz with only four rushers that still gets pressure and maintains an extra man in coverage.
Currently, the Rams are the best example of these defenses. In 2020 with the Rams, Staley ran a light box 78% of the time, 2nd highest in the league, on way to the league’s best defense. The Rams followed this up with a top ten defense in 2021 that was both a solid run and pass defense on way to winning the Super Bowl.
But besides the Rams, these defenses haven’t been able to balance pass and run defense
The other teams mentioned have not duplicated the Rams success so far. Aspects of the defensive scheme have worked – each was better against the pass and most were good limiting explosive plays but only the Bears had a better than average overall defense. And they all really suffered against the run – all were below league average with four in the bottom third of the league and two (the Packers and Chargers) near the very bottom.
Overall Defense DVOA Rank
Pass Defense DVOA Rank
Run Defense DVOA Rank
Explosive Play Rate Allowed Rank
Rams
5
6
5
13
Bears
13
12
24
20
Broncos
20
20
21
14
Packers
22
16
28
9
Eagles
25
25
18
6
Chargers
26
19
30
23
Changing the coverage math requires different personnel
Limiting explosive plays by “putting a roof on the offense” as Staley says and making the entire offense work more patiently sounds great. But just like how every team tried unsuccessfully to copy Seattle’s Cover-3, the same is happening here without the personnel to make it work.
The other Fangio defenses just haven’t put it together yet.
Staley’s Chargers weren’t good enough up front to stop the run…
The Eagles and Bears weren’t able to stay in two-high because they had to push another defender into the box too often, ending the year in the middle of the league in two-high snaps…
The Packers and Broncos couldn’t pressure the QB with bottom-of-the-league pass rush win rates…
There’s no one solution and the different coaches have different approaches, but despite the view that this defense does not require top talent at certain positions, the actual practice is these teams seek out talent at all levels of the defense. Staley will never stop collecting corners, pass rushers are always in demand, a different type of safety is needed.
And nose tackles are rising in importance
Nose tackles are consistently listed right above running backs, kickers, and punters on the list of premium positions. But while never a headline, each of the Fangio defenses has continually sought out nose tackles as they built their defenses.
Here are two quick clips on what NTs are expected to do and the value they bring to the scheme. The first is Sebastian Joseph-Day playing two gaps which is necessary to push an added man into coverage. The second is Kenny Clark consuming a double-team for a run stop.
This changes the historical devaluation of the position and forces us to think differently about a position that rarely shows up in stats. Here are recent moves by the Packers, Broncos, Chargers, and Eagles:
Packers signed Kenny Clark to a DT record 4 year / $70M extension in 2020: By his standards, Clark had a down year in 2021 with a 9.1% run stop rate, 20th in the league (which was still better than any Eagle). But Clark has consistently been top 10 in the league in run stops throughout his career and is in the same conversation with Vita Vea as nose tackles that also consistently pressure the QB.
Broncos sign D.J. Jones (3 year / $30M) this offseason: In 2021, Jones was 2nd in the NFL with a 13.1% run stop rate and had the 3rd best rate of stops at or behind the LOS by a DT since 2016.
Chargers sign Sebastian Joseph-Day (3 year / $24M) and Austin Johnson (2 year / $14M) this offseason: Staley’s collection of cornerbacks is widely known but don’t overlook that he spent $38M on TWO nose tackles this offseason. Joseph-Day, who played for him on the Rams, missed half the season last year with a torn pec but led the league with a 15.5% run stop rate. Austin Johnson was 9th in the league with a 10.4% run stop rate, right behind Vita Vea. And, he added UCLA NT Otito Ogbonnia in the 5th round of the draft.
And the Eagles use pick 13 on Jordan Davis: The Eagles traded up to get Davis whose ranks as the most athletic interior linemen out of 1,378 prospects since 1987. Additionally, they brought in 6’4″ 346 pound PFA Noah Elliss.
The NFL obviously goes in cycles, but the rising importance of nose tackles has been a trend for several years. Below shows how many of the top 10 and top 15 paid interior defensive linemen were nose tackles by year and what share of the top 15 total AAV they consumed.
# Top 10 NTs
# Top 15 NTs
% of Top 15 AAV on NTs
2018
1
3
14.8%
2019
1
3
16.0%
2020
2
4
22.2%
2021
3
6
33.9%
2022
3
6
34.1%
With the average AAV for nose tackles in the top 15 at just over $11M, they aren’t anywhere near competing with the top pass rushers. But over the past five years, the number of nose tackles being paid in the top 10 and top 15 of interior defenders and the total share of cap going to NTs have both steadily increased. And outside of Tampa’s Vita Vea and Green Bay’s Kenny Clark, they aren’t being paid for pass rushing.
Which brings us to Jordan Davis…
Many in Philly still look at Jordan Davis only as a “run-stuffing defensive tackle that comes off the field on passing downs” and were disappointed with the pick. But these defenses value – and require because of their fundamental structure moving away from +1 in the box – players that can handle multiple gaps and consume blockers.
If you don’t follow anonymous ex-scout @TheHonestNFL, go do so – just a continual flow of great insight into the game. But THN has been pounding for months why a player like Davis is so needed in Gannon’s defense:
When teams can’t stop the run, it spills over to the passing game as they are forced to do exactly what THN explains above – move an additional player into the box. Despite wanting to be a two-high team, in 2021 the Eagles were only 15th in the league in pre-snap two-high alignments. This is one of the most telling stats from this past season – Gannon was forced out of two-high to add run support too often.
To think of Davis as “just a run stuffer” ignores how coverage and the front affect each other. I went back and re-watched all of his snaps in this year’s College Championship game – Alabama double-teamed (and sometimes triple-teamed) Davis on 58% of his snaps. As he said in his draft press conference, “if it’s two on me, somebody’s free”.
In the National Championship game, even with being doubled most of the game Davis still had 2 pressures on 27 dropbacks and 2 run stops on 20 run defense snaps as Georgia avenged their SEC Championship loss to Alabama.
As a comparison, the week prior in the Orange Bowl Michigan decided to double Davis on “only” 35% of his snaps. It was an awful idea. He had 2 tackles for loss on only 9 run defense snaps (one against a double team) and a QB hit and 2 hurries on only 16 dropback snaps. But if they double him, it weakens something somewhere else.
This is what got him drafted. In the first play, four rushers vs. six blockers and Davis pushes past a single blocker (who didn’t have Davis locked up before trying to get to the next level) and is the first in the backfield. In the second play, Davis holds up a double, sheds, and pulls Hassan Haskins down in the backfield. And the final play is another single block where Davis pulls the center and shows speed in to pressure the QB. Not double-teaming him just doesn’t work.
For the season, Davis was 1st in this draft class with a 12.2% run stop rate and 2nd in average depth of tackle. Football ultimately comes down to numbers and if Davis can consistently consume two or three blockers, he changes the game.
And, just to end, some clips that I love from @MattAlkire from shortly after the 2021 draft on what Jordan Davis can do and why he was going to be special. Stay to the end for the Green Mile comment.
Jordan Davis is a grizzly bear. Three plays here and the third is just silly. pic.twitter.com/TNkTyBOtCg
This is mostly a post for myself to look back on after the draft, see what I was right and wrong on, and what I need to adjust to next year. I created a horizontal draft board with probably 100-120 players on it and below is a summary of my priority targets at each main pick location.
Pick Range
Prioritized Draft Targets
R1 Trade up (8-12)
CB Ahmad Gardner CB Derek Stingley
R1 Picks 15 & 18
WR Jameson Williams WR Garrett Wilson DT Jordan Davis CB Trent McDuffie EDGE Jermaine Johnson WR Drake London EDGE George Karlaftis WR Treylon Burks
R1 Trade down (25-35)
S Lewis Cine S Daxton Hill CB Kaiir Elam WR Jahan Dotson CB Kyler Gordon CB Andrew Booth DT Travis Jones EDGE Arnold Ebiketie
R2 Trade up (35-45)
5T Logan Hall EDGE Boye Mafe WR Skyy Moore LB Quay Walker
R2 (51)
DT Perrion Winfrey 5T Josh Paschal EDGE Nik Bonnito LB Chad Muma LB Christian Harris
R3 (83)
EDGE Kingsley Enagbare CB Cam Taylor-Britt S Kerby Joseph WR Calvin Austin WR Khalil Shakir LB Channing Tindall S Brian Cook OG Dylan Parham OC Cole Strange OG Sean Rhyan TE Charlie Kolar
R4
OL Zach Tom CB Jalyn Armour-Davis CB Cordale Flott LB Brandon Smith RB Rachaad White WR Erik Ezukanma S Tycen Anderson
R5
DT Neil Farrell OL Matt Waletzko P Jordan Stout RB Keaontay Ingram LB Kyron Johnson DL Matt Henningsen CB Martin Emerson RB Hassan Haskins
R6
LB D’Marco Jackson DL Michael Clemons CB Joshua Williams CB Damarion Williams WR Tyquan Thornton OL Jean Delance
R7-PFA
S Joey Blount DL Jayden Peevy DL Noah Ellis CB Decobie Durant WR Tre Turner S JT Woods OL Devin Cochran OL Austin Deculus RB Jerion Ealy P Jake Camarda
Couple of notes:
Trade-up: I am not a trade-up guy at all but have two players I would trade up for (Sauce and Stingley). Two reasons: first, I think there is a decent drop-off from Sauce and Stingley to the next group of corners.
And second, in a draft that most think is deep but lacking top-end prospects, I think Sauce and Stingley would stand up with the top CBs taken the last several years. I don’t feel the same way with WRs and EDGEs – I’d rather have Treylon/JJ/Karlaftis without losing a pick or Dotson/Ebiketie/Travis Jones/Cine with an extra pick from trading down than to move up for pick-your-player-in-the-top-10.
Some players I notably left off include Kyle Hamilton (I don’t think the gap between him and Cine and Daxton is that big at all) and Jordan Davis (I love Davis but he either falls to us or I go after Travis Jones or Perrion Winfrey).
The 25-40 pick range: A lot think Howie will probably look to move another pick and when you look at the players between are 18 and 51 picks, there are a lot of really interesting players:
If you miss out on Jordan Davis, I would love Travis Jones or Perrion Winfrey
The Eagles really need a safety and Daxton Hill and Lewis Cine will go in between 18 and 51
Kyler Gordon and Kaiir Elam would be good options at corner if they don’t move up
If there is a run on EDGEs, Arnold Ebiketie and Boye Mafe would fall in this late 1st / early 2nd range
And if they don’t get a receiver at 15 or 18, I would absolutely love Jahan Dotson or Skyy Moore but neither will likely be there at 51.
Players I would hope to not have to make a decision on: A few players in the 1st round area that many like but I have enough reservation on that I would hope to not have to make a decision on them:
Chris Olave – I watch his film and really like a lot of what he does. But his underlying per route stats are not good. Does that mean he won’t be good? No, but per route stats have raised flags on other receivers in the past, including Reagor.
David Ojabo – I tweeted on him before, the data on Achilles recovery is really not good with power being diminished for up to 3 years.
Jermaine Johnson – I have him on the board above and I like him, but I worry about the older prospects as I previously wrote. I would still probably take him but the history is not great here.
Pre Draft Look Inside the Mind of Eagles G.M. Howie Roseman, The Anatomy of a Trade
Earlier this offseason I opined that Howie seemingly likes to make trades regarding picks in the first round of the NFL draft, a month in advance. Last year with the Dolphins and again this season with the Saints.
During a press conference last week, Howie confirmed that opinion and explained his reasoning.
“In the first round we’ve always found that it’s helpful to have those trades mapped out beforehand. The way that goes isn’t like, ‘Hey, we’re definitely doing this.’ “It’s if we’re moving up, hey, if there’s a player that we want that falls to that spot, here’s what we would do. Are we good on the trade compensation? So that you pick up the phone and I say ‘Hey, the guy’s still there. You guys good?’ ‘Yeah’, Trade is done.
And why is that helpful?
“We have two picks, so I think you’re planning every scenario about who you would move up for, who you would be really comfortable staying (for), how many players you would be comfortable staying (for), and what are the tiers that you would move back for and what you would take. So you’re not sitting there and going, ‘We think it should be this and this and they think it should be this and this.’ It’s too hectic to do that in the first round.”
So what was the difference with the Saints trade, as opposed to waiting to see how the board was falling on draft night?
“I think for us and New Orleans, that was one of the comforts of the trade, we both knew what we were comfortable for. It didn’t really matter what the trade chart said. They were comfortable with the deal, and we were comfortable with the deal, and I think those are the best trades.”
What about days 2 and 3 of the draft?
“When you get into the second round, third round and beyond, those things do happen on the clock because they’re simpler, but when it gets into the first round, all those conversations will be had before the fact. Even our trade last year we kind of set parameters of what that was, and so when we picked up the phone and called Dallas we kind of knew what the trade was going to be and what the price was going to be and that we had discussed that.”
And for the fans worried about “Howie szn” making a deal just to make a deal, he has those parameters already in place as well.
“Obviously, there’s a price that doesn’t make sense to move back either. We’re not going to move back 10 picks for a 5th-round pick. So I think at the end of the day you kind of go through all those and you have a really good sense of what you want to do.”
Heading into what could be the most franchise defining draft of Howie’s career (the wheeling and dealing for Wentz might be #1) what has Howie said to be the lessons that have been learned from the previous years?
“Certainly, when you look at some of the mistakes that I’ve made personally, it’s because you try to force something. I think you’re constantly evaluating the things that you do wrong, and you also want to learn from the things you did right and lessons that you have from that. You’re going to mess things up, but what can you learn from those picks that didn’t work out?”
What does Howie think about the Jalen Reagor pick?
“Obviously, I know (Reagor) gets a lot of attention in this city, and I know he’s working his butt off. When you look back (2020) was a hard year for some guys because you had COVID, you didn’t have an offseason program. So sometimes, the book isn’t necessarily written on all those guys.”
How does the organization view Jalen Hurts and the QB position?
Eagles chairman and CEO Jeffrey Lurie last month at the NFL owners’ meetings. “Who knows what the future holds? We all have this vision, myself included, that’s an automatic franchise quarterback. It’s almost nonexistent, and when it does exist, you’re very, very lucky to have that.”
Lurie continued, using Bills franchise QB Josh Allen as an example of being patient.;
“After year one or year two, is Josh Allen a franchise quarterback? Was he even thought to be a franchise quarterback when Buffalo drafted him? I think the answers are clearly no, no and no. He developed into one.”
I do not know if many evaluators ever looked at the 2 QB’s as being remotely similar, but the stats seem to back up Luries’ comments, and his hopes.
Josh Allen completed 52.8% of his passes during his rookie year and 58.8% his second season. His passer ratings were 67.9 and 85.3
Jalen Hurts improved from 57.1% to 61.3% during his first full year as a starter in 2021. Jalens’ passer ratings were 77.6 and 87.2
Allen was drafted 7th overall and Hurts 53rd.
Lurie, Howie and the Eagles have another reason to be patient with Jalen. His salary only counts towards 1.9 million of the cap in 2022 and his rookie contract doesn’t expire until the conclusion of the 2023 season.
Despite fans desiring the likes of Russell Wilson and DeShaun Watson the past year. This affordable, reasonable approach, was always the most likely ending.
As NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah has stated regarding rookie QB deals
“I always tell everybody, if it’s close, you’re going to 100% go with the rookie (quarterback) over the veteran, because it’s not the rookie vs. the veteran. It’s the rookie and the 3 or 4 other players you’re going to be able to fit in that same salary structure vs. the veteran.”
Are more trades likely to happen?
The Eagles still have 2 first round picks in the 2022 NFL Draft, and theyhave some potential trade partners lined up, depending on how the selections play out Thursday night.
Possible suitors include trading up from pick 15 with the Panthers, Jets or Seahawks, and or trading down from 18 with the Green Bay Packers. Other options are on the table as well.
Now that the draft is upon us, and the Eagles seem to be focused on adding talent to help Jalen, rather than replace him. What happens if he stumbles?
Alabama’s Bryce Young and Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud are considered the top QB prospects in the 2023 draft and with 2 first round picks, the Eagles will be in prime position to acquire either of them (or anyone else).
As always, Thank You for reading!
David
Follow me @PHLEagleNews
4/26/22
Eagles Draft History: 2002, The Best Draft, and Doubling Up
Statistically, the Eagles best draft over the past twenty years was the 2002 draft where they selected:
Peters, Milons, and Harrison only totaled 21 games played and 1 total Approximate Value (AV) but the other five picks were long-term players in the league that greatly outperformed their draft slot.
This draft was not only the best Eagles draft since 2000, it was the 23rd highest value draft out of 702 total drafts by the league. Below shows an indexed value of every team’s draft since 2000. The number shown is that team’s AV share of that year’s total AV with the average draft indexed to 100, meaning a team with a value of 100 had an average draft and numbers above 100 are better drafts (as an example, a team with a 120 would have gotten 20% more value than the average draft).
In 2002 the Eagles 192.7 total draft value was not only their highest over this period by a large margin (the next closest are all in the 145-157 range) but almost doubled the average value of a draft. The five players above – Lito, Sheldon Brown, Michael Lewis, Westbrook, and Raheem Brock – all had career values above 43 AV. To put this in context:
The average draft pick has a career value of 16 career AV
The average value of 1st round selections is just under 43 career AV and day two draft picks is 22 AV
Only 539 players out of 2,753 non-active draft picks (19.7%) since 2000 have accumulated a career value of 43 or more
I previously wrote on the Eagles top 10 best draft values with Brian Westbrook number two on the list behind only Jason Kelce, who is a likely hall-of-famer taken in the 6th round. Over a four year period, there was nobody better than Westbrook with the dual-threat averaging 75 receptions, 212 rushes, and almost 1,700 scrimmage yards per season.
With the Eagles famous draft double-up (actually triple-up with two corners and a safety with their first three picks), the trio of Lito, Sheldon, and Michael Lewis immediately remade the Eagles secondary. In a span that kept most of them together through the 2008 season, they totaled 41 interceptions in what seems like a different era when the Eagles defense averaged over 15 interceptions a year, a number they haven’t reached since 2017.
The last pick, 7th-rounder Raheem Brock, is another player that had a good career elsewhere. After the Philly-native and Temple grad was drafted, the Eagles ran out of rookie salary cap space and gave up his rights. Brock was claimed off waivers by the Colts and went on to have a solid 10-year career, recording 40.5 sacks and 14 fumbles forced and winning a Super Bowl championship.
Doubling-up in the draft
The Eagles have doubled-up with high picks a few times since then, but never with the same impact.
2010 – Doubling up on defensive ends In 2010 they took two defensive ends, Brandon Graham in the 1st and Daniel Te’o-Nesheim in the 3rd with BG obviously being an all-time Eagle.
2011 – Disastrous corners With picks in the 2nd and 3rd, the Eagles again tried to invest in their secondary with Jaiquawn Jarrett and Curtis Marsh. The two totaled 6 career AV and were both 10th percentile players.
2017 – Again trying to double-up on corners For the third time, the Eagles double-up on corners with pre-injury projected 1st-round pick Sidney Jones taken in the 2nd and Rasul Douglas taken in the 3rd.
I love when teams double up in the draft. First, it is just exciting to really invest in a position. Too many people have their list of needs and when they mock, move neatly from one to the next and end with a mock that ”checks” all the key positions. And second, nothing in the draft is certain and it raises the chances of hitting at a position.
Reading Matt Alkire’s recent “Eagles Draft Preview” got me thinking more on this. In it, Matt speculates on the Eagles doubling up on pass rushers with a Karlaftis or Johnson in the first and Nik Bonnito in the second. I think Matt is right on DL being the most likely position to double up on. Here I wanted to dig into possible double-ups that could make sense this year (and caveats that positions should not force picks, Howie should and I believe will stay to their value board):
Pass Rush I already covered Matt’s speculation on pass rushers above which is the most likely position to be doubled up on. Besides Karlaftis/Johnson and Bonitto, here are a couple of others across the entire line:
R1 Jermaine Johnson and R2 Perrion Winfrey
R2 Josh Paschal and R3 Kingsley Enagbare
Wide Receiver Some are wondering if the Eagles would / should take a receiver in the 1st for the third year in a row but with where free agency prices are, wide receiver is becoming a position that just needs to be continually invested in. With DeVonta, Quez, and Zach Pascal, there probably isn’t room for multiple high picks but they need a WR2 and after the three mentioned, everybody else could be / should be upgraded:
R1 Treylon Burks and R3 Jalen Tolbert
R1 Chris Olave and R3 Alec Pierce
R2 George Pickens and R3 Khalil Shakir
Secondary I don’t read anything specific into the fact that three of the four times the Eagles doubled up with day 1 and day 2 picks, it was for cornerback. Given the various corners they have been collecting and the need at safety, I will mix corners and safeties here:
R1 Kaiir Elam and R3 Kerby Joseph
R1 Lewis Cine and R3 Coby Bryant
R1 Daxton Lewis and R2 Cam Taylor-Britt
Bonus: Special Teams A little off-topic as these won’t be day 1 or day 2 picks, but I couldn’t resist and the Eagles have actually shown some interest in special teamers. You all know my feelings on punter but the other ST spot they really need is a returner:
With the additional Covid redshirt years, this year’s draft is one of the largest drafts and has the highest number of older prospects – by my best count, there are 87 players in the draft that will be 24 or older during the 2022 season including some high-profile names:
Expected Draft Position
Offense
Defense
Day 1
QB Kenny Pickett
EDGE Jermaine Johnson IDL Devonte Wyatt LB Devin Lloyd
Day 2
OT Bernhard Raimann OT Abraham Lucas IOL Luke Goedeke IOL Cole Strange IOL Sean Rhyan TE Jelani Woods
OT Kellen Diesch OT Ryan Van Demark OT Obinna Eze IOL Luke Fortner IOL Zach Thomas IOL Justin Shaffer IOL Alec Lindstrom IOL Lecitus Smith WR Velus Jones WR Dontario Drummond TE Gerrit Prince RB Ty Chandler
EDGE Dominique Robinson 5T Michael Clemons IDL Eric Johnson IDL Eyioma Uwazurike IDL Haskell Garrett CB Bryce Watts CB Damarion Williams CB Chase Lucas LB Jojo Domann LB Christopher Allen LB Aaron Hansford LB D’Marco Johnson LB Kyron Johnson
The Browns are probably most recognized for having an age requirement, supposedly avoiding any prospect age 23 or older. Since Andrew Berry became GM in 2020 the Browns have the lowest average age of draft picks at 21.5 years old and are the only team in the league that hasn’t drafted somebody 23 or older.
The draft is getting younger
While the Browns may be stricter than most, the average age of prospects has been dropping for several years, especially in earlier rounds. This is for two reasons. First, more players are declaring early ever since the rookie wage scale was introduced. Players know their opportunity to make money is on the second contract and the sooner – and younger – they can get to that contract, the better off they are.
And second, more and more teams are looking at breakout age and valuing players that show college performance at a younger age. And conversely, questioning players that only breakout in college when they are older, competing against mostly younger players.
But that doesn’t mean older players fall in the draft
But while the average age of players is decreasing, it doesn’t mean older players fall in the draft. Below shows every 24+ year old over the past 5 years and what the difference was between their actual pick location vs. their pre-draft expected draft position (EDP). Above the center line means the player was taken earlier than their pre-draft EDP, below the line they were taken lower than their pre-draft EDP.
The older players are all over but if there is a trend, it is top players – day 1 and 2 – are taken earlier than their pre-draft positioning. And later in the draft, the older players are taken later than pre-draft expectations.
And older players don’t differ in value vs. expected
When you look at player value, the 24+ year olds do not perform worse than the average draft pick. Below shows the same group of 24+ year olds by pick location with their actual value (by AV) vs. expected value for that pick location. Above the center line are players that outperformed their draft slot and below the line are players that underperformed. There is no clear trend which follows the average players drafted.
But maybe stay away from older players at skill positions
Below are the 24+ year old draftees by position and round with their actual value (AV) vs. expected value at their draft position. While these are all smaller sample sizes, the skill positions (WR, TE, RB, CB) all are near the bottom in value vs. expected. The offensive line, and linebacker to a lesser degree, don’t seem to care about age.
What could this mean for this year’s players?
Don’t expect players to fall only because of their age, especially the highly-graded players.
When Devin Lloyd’s age finally came out, many were questioning if he falls. He won’t, at least not because of his age. And there is no concern of him being a late breakout prospect as he has had good years for 2-3 years. Same with other day 1 and day 2 prospects like Arnold Ebiketie, Boye Mafe, and Myjai Sanders.
But there is reason to worry about late breakouts.
I love Jermaine Johnson but his best year was his last year. Maybe he just needed the opportunity to start, but it is a question. Same with Kenny Pickett – he was not a good QB until his 5th year. Jelani Woods has an amazing athletic profile but again only popped at 23. I know Bernhard Raimann is new to football so his senior year breakout may be because he is still learning the game, but he will be 25 to start his NFL career. And others like WR Dontario Drummond, TE Gerritt Prince, WR Velus Jones, and 5T Michael Clemons only stood out in their last seasons and history would say this late breakout is a concern, especially at their positions.
Who could be really interesting?
Besides those mentioned above – Devin Lloyd, Boye Mafe, Ebiketie, and Myjai – I would not worry about age on players like IOL Sean Rhyan, IOL Luke Goedeke, OT Abraham Lucas, IOL Luke Fortner. First, as shown above, there is not a value dropoff on older offensive line prospects and second, each has been good for several years.
The Final Absolute Superlative All Eagles 2022 NFL Mock Draft
Round 1 (pick 10): Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia
Pick 15 and 83 to Jets for pick 10
The why behind the what: The Eagles value the lines more than any other team in the NFL. They specifically love interior pressure. Drafting DT is not only their core belief, but in 2022, it is aligned with a need as well. Cox is most likely done with the Eagles after this year. Javon Hargrave is 29,and barring an extension, is in the last year of his contract. For a team that values DT as much as Philly does, this is a no brainer. Run, don’t walk, that card up to Commissioner Goodell.
Davis stands 6’6 340 lbs. He has an enormous big boned, broad shouldered framed man that fills any gap you want to put him in. As a four year starter for the Bull Dogs, he was primarily used as a nose tackle in their 3–4 scheme. He flourished his Senior year being utilized in a rotation where he was on the field a little less than previous seasons. (something the Eagles do as well)
Jordan is a max effort guy who chases down runners with his unbelievable speed for a man his size. He posted a stunning 4.78 40 time at the combine.
His teammates love his good natured personality, and his smile is infectious. Going back to Jerome Brown, and more recently Fletcher Cox, the Eagles have done well bringing in gregarious, fun loving, high motor DT’s that keep a locker room joyous and motivated. Davis could potentially fill that role.
When I release my Top 100 and Jordan Davis is really high, realize that 350-pound people shouldn't be able to do this. 2nd Sack. pic.twitter.com/Ys5cxhl9jb
Last year the Eagles went back to back players from the National Champion Alabama team, this year they do the same. Only this time with Georgia. Cine, pronounced SEEN.
Lewis is dominating and violent versus the run. He has improved year after year and will likely continue do so as he is well known for being a student of the game. Cine’s talent that is on the rise, and he will only get stronger as he matures. Lewis is a perfect fit for the Eagles backfield. He also checks off the durability box, as he has played in all 39 games over the past 3 seasons. With McLeod off to Indy, he fills an immediate need.
*If Cine was gone at this point, I would expect David Ojabo to be the selection. Maybe even in another small trade to move down a few spots.
Want a safety that has box instincts, communicates and limits YAC … Lewis Cine. pic.twitter.com/8D6K7UADGq
Make it a hat trick! When I did this mock, it didn’t even occur to me that I had just selected three Georgia Bulldogs back, to back, to back. Once I realized it, I thought I should change one of these picks. Instead, I stayed true to my evaluations and what I would do if I were the Eagles GM for a draft. So while it is admittedly odd and unique to draft 3 players from the same school in succession, I am steadfast in my approach.
Pickens would probably be long gone, somewhere in the first round, if not for an injury in 2021. At 6’3, his tall, long frame gives him an advantage in winning contested catches. During his two years as a starter for Georgia, he demonstrated above average route running, the concentration to catch balls away from his body, and the skill set to be a future number one WR in the NFL. Throughout his career Pickens has shown the ability to be the go to receiver when it is time to move the chains. 71.1 percent of his catches resulted in a first down. If I am Howie Roseman, I submit this card confidently, and begin a friendly rivalry in the locker room between the Alabama and Georgia alumni.
I desperately tried to find another Bulldog to draft, but alas it was not meant to be.
Strange could groom for a year under Kelce, if the Eagles view him as a Center, while he spends the 2022 season as an all purpose back up along the O Line. Cole brings aggression, and the work ethic the Eagles demand from the position. He has a lean, muscular frame that gives him a speed advantage in the trenches, which requires Cole to rely on technique more than bulk. The size is something he can add to if a team sees fit. He is one of my favorite players in this draft class.
*If Strange is already selected at this point, I would go the same position, and take Nebraska center Cam Jurgens. I have seen a lot of Jason Kelce’s style of play in his game. I struggled choosing between the two. I would feel confident selecting whichever is available, as they’re both great talents.
If anyone was wondering if Cole Strange was going to have any problems with the level of competition, he is NOT. This is dominance. Again, love his hands. pic.twitter.com/AsYWmE8FhW
Round 3 (pick 101): Brian Robinson Jr., RB, Alabama
Brian is one of the best in his class at picking up yards after contact. He is also a punishing finisher. He uses his strong legs and 6’1 225 lb frame to gain those tough, short yards when needed on 3rd and 4th down. Brian would be a great rotational back, and possibly Miles Sanders future replacement. Alabama HC, Nick Saban, stated Brian is an outstanding special teams player. That is something the Eagles need to start paying more attention to.
Me rambling for 2 minutes about a Brian Robinson Jr. run. Is it worth your time? Maybe. I feel forced to improve his grade. pic.twitter.com/2ZWw0mTlEp
The Eagles drafted Gunter’s mentor last year, fellow Coastal Carolina Chanticleer, Tarron Jackson. This year they bring in the student.
Gunter has the traits Eagles GM Howie Roseman seemingly looks for in an Edge rusher. Jeffrey has the bend, long arms, closing speed and a nose for creating a turnover, ( 8 forced fumbles the past seasons) something that Eagles defense needs badly, and that Howie covets.
Jeffrey has a lot of the tools that can be honed by NFL coaching. Gunter played in 48 of 49 games for , so durability should not be an issue. Adding Jeffrey in a rotation of pass rushers that include Haason Reddick, Brandon Graham, Josh Sweat, and Derek Barnett will give him time to be coached up, and learn on the job.
Gunter has been very open regarding his struggles with depression, and the Eagles are at the forefront of the NFL in assisting players (Lane Johnson and Brandon Brooks) with issues regarding mental health. Philadelphia would benefit from his pass rush, but it could be a safe landing spot for Gunter to flourish as well.
Kept saying people were sleeping on Jeffrey Gunter for this game. If you have any questions why, refer to this. He can flat out boogie. pic.twitter.com/OJD2zYx8dg
The Eagles want another pass catching TE to pair with Goedert, and with project Tyree Jackson out for a large part of the season, they will probably be drafting one.
Cole Turner has proven to be a pass catching wonder. He lined up outside or in the slot in Nevada’s offense. In Philadelphia, he would be used strictly as an offensive weapon, as he has a ways to go before he would be trusted to block.
Turner does have good hands, ball tracking ability, and wins most 50/50 balls. At 6’6, he’s another big body who gets the separation needed to be a reliable target for Hurts.
I don’t watch tape on punters, and like @GregHartPA opined “I can picture how miserable you would be just holding a stopwatch, looking up into the sun, counting “One Mississippi…” and he is right.
The importance of special teams and flipping the field with a great punter is an often overlooked stat. I will let him make the case for punter, and specifically why it should be “Punt God” Jordan Stout.
It would be an absolute steal if Jobe falls this far in the draft. I have my doubts that he will, but this would be a huge GIFT for Philadelphia.
Jobe played both man and zone corner for the Crimson Tide in 2021. He uses his hands to disrupt pass plays and is always attacking the ball. Josh has also proven to be a good run defender who reads plays well, and hits hard. His aggressive, down hill style play against the run, has lead to some violent collisions. Josh suffered a turf toe injury that required surgery in December, which is the only reason there is hope of selecting him here at pick 168.
I could have posted 10 clips for every prospect I selected. If you’d like more insight into these players, do yourself a favor and go follow Mat Alkire on twitter. In the search field type @mattalkire Jordan Davis (the players name) and you will find countless clips of most every college prospect.
If you enjoyed the Eagles taking a punter, Greg Hart is your guy. Join him and his cult of punter fans @greghartpa
He is the authority on the topic, has the best articles explaining the importance of drafting one. The stats he shares prove the difference they make in a game. I know, I was skeptical too. Just read one article, and you will be convinced as well. It is that compelling.
As always, thank you for reading.
David
follow me @PHLEagleNews
4/19/22
The Great QB Debate
There are two very divisive differences of opinion when discussing which way a team should proceed regarding the Quarterback position.
One– You need an elite QB to have a chance in today’s NFL.
Two– You build a strong team, develop a QB, if and when a window opens to win (and you still need a QB) you make a move like the Rams and Bucs did.
Obviously, having an elite QB makes things easier and masks other deficiencies a team may have. The question is at what cost should you pay to acquire one, and what difference have they made for franchises in the past?
So, I decided to look back at what history tells us about the QB position, and the correlation between having an Elite QB on the roster, and winning a SB.
Fact or Myth Number 1:
“A QB needs an elite strong arm to succeed and win SBs”
This statement is a myth.
A history of QBs drafted who came out of college with the strongest arms:
This myth, is the reason the stronger armed QBs were taken in the first half of round one, while Brady, Rodgers and Brees were all taken later.
The seven traits that the most successful Quarterbacks in the league share are: anticipation, accuracy, footwork, pocket presence, athleticism, decision making and mental toughness. Arm strength is always talked amongst the fans the most, but every QB coach I spoke with never mentioned it.
Fact or Myth number 2:
“Trading 1st rd picks to acquire an elite QB gives you a better % chance of winning a SB”
This statement is a myth.
The only QBs who were dealt for multiple first round picks (omitting draft day deals for QBs such as Eli Manning, John Elway, and Brett Favre) that went on to win a SB for their new team just had to be updated. Why? Because prior to this season, the answer was ZERO. Until SB 56, no established QB acquired via trading multiple first round picks had ever won a SB. Matt Stafford is the only veteran QB to be acquired via multiple first round picks during their career to win a SB. Congrats Matt!
Fact or Myth number 3:
“Having an elite QB gives you more Super Bowl wins”
This statement is rooted both in fact and myth.
While trading multiple first round picks to “fix” a teams QB issue is not the way to succeed, as shown above. Drafting a QB first overall, overwhelmingly, does give you the greatest chance at SB glory and of finding your elite arm.
34.6 % of all QBs selected first overall, over the last 45 years, won a SB
This is by far the greatest advantadge a team has to win a SB. There are many factors that contribute to this. The team also selects first in every other round and cap friendly rookie contract also frees up money to build the team in other areas, etc. I would also imagine having a competent GM who can evaluate talent in choosing the best QB, also utilizes that skill to draft talented players at other positions as well.
QBs taken number one overall (26)
Total number one overall picks who won a SB: 9 (18 SBs)
“Seasoned Veterans like R Wilson (age 33) gives you a greater chance of winning a SB”
This statement is also a myth.
So what does the age of a QB tell us about a teams chances of winning a SB?
Of the 56 winning SB Quarterbacks, 30 have been won when the QB was aged 30 or younger.
25 or younger: 6 Super Bowls 10.7% 26–30 years old: 24 Super Bowls 42.9 31–35 years old: 17 Super Bowls 30.3% 36 or older: 9 Super Bowls 16.1%
(Brady = 4 of those over age 36)
The other 5: Elway twice, Unitas, P Manning, and Jim Plunkett
Average age of Super Bowl winning QB, in each decade:
2010s: 31 years old 2000s: 27 years old 1990s: 30.6 years old 1980s: 30.8 years old 1970s: 30 years old 1960s: 30.7 years old
Having a QB, 30 or younger, wins the SB 61% of the time if you omit “the unicorn” that is Tom Brady. 54% of the time otherwise. Tom skews the entire narrative 7% all by himself. He is the only outlier. Ever.
The greatest QB in NFL history (Tom Brady) was taken in the 6th round!
Fun Super Bowl Facts:
26 different Quarterbacks have won the Super Bowl in the last 45 years
Total number of QB taken in the first round (not #1 overall) who won the SB:8 (totaling 9 SBs)
17.8% of QB drafted in the first rd (not 1st overall) over the last 45 yrs won SB
34.6 % of all QBs selected first overall, over the last 45 years, won a SB
In contrast:
1 QB who was traded to a team for multiple first round picks during their career has won a Super Bowl.
The most proven, successful, way to build a winner is drafting and developing a first round QB.
Total number of QB taken in the 2nd rd or later to win a SB: 10 QBs totaling 19 SBs.
QBs drafted first overall never to win a SB as a starter:
JaMarcus Russell, Michael Vick, Andrew Luck, Vinny Testaverde, Jared Goff, Alex Smith, Carson Palmer, Jeff George, Baker Mayfield, Tim Couch, Steve Bartowski, Sam Bradford, Kyler Murray, Jameis Winston, Derek Carr, Joe Burrow
Of the 112 teams that have reached the Super Bowl, 91 of them ranked in the Top 10 in scoring defense. 91!
Over the last 45 years the #1 ranked defense has won 28.57 of SB
Over the last 45 years the #1 ranked offense has won 20.41of SB
The Packers have had 30 straight years of elite QB play, yet only won 2 SB during this time.
When Rodgers won the SB in 2010, the defense was second in pts allowed (240). In 1996 when Favre won his SB, the defense allowed the fewest pts (210) in the entire NFL.
Are you seeing a pattern emerge yet?
The Top Ten Paid QBs in 2021:
P Mahomes $45 million J Allen $43 million Dak Prescott $40 million Deshaun Watson $39 million R Wilson$35 million Rodgers $33.5 million Goff $33.5 million K Cousins $33 million Wentz $32 million M Ryan $30 million
How many of those QBs won or were even in SB this yr?
Very hard to win with that much money allocated to a single player, it is the reason why Brady constantly reworked his contract and accepted his money being deferred. He wanted to win.
Joe Burrow is the only QB drafted first overall to win a DIVISIONAL playoff game within their first 2 seasons, ever.
Joe Burrow and Russell Wilson are the only (2) second year QBs in the last ten years to win 2 playoff games.
Defensive Rankings for SB winners:
Big Ben won 2 SBs def ranked 1 & 4
Rodgers 1 SB def ranked 2
Wilson 1 SB def ranked 1
Foles/Wentz 1 SB def ranked 4
Even the great Tom Brady 7 SB def ranked; 6, 1, 2, 8, 1, 7, 1
Some outliers like, Eli Manning. His 2 SB wins with the Giants were accomplished with defensive rankings of 17 &25 and the offense ranked 14 & 9. Both were very improbable SB wins. How improbable?
Cra Cra:
Only one QB has even won a Super Bowl while having the rank of their offense and defense equal a combined CRA total over 15
(CRA= combined ranked average)
That QB is Eli Manning. He did it twice!
(Ex: 3rd ranked Offense plus the 5th ranked Def = a CRA of 8)
2011 Giants had the 9th ranked off and 25th ranked def CRA=17
2007 Giants had the 14th ranked off and the 17th ranked def CRA=15.5
The average team that wins the SB has a CRA of 5.75. Meaning they usually have one of the top 5–6 offenses and defenses. (Or a #1 ranked offense with a 10th ranked def to average 5, or vice versa)
So in conclusion what does history tell us?
The day a struggling NFL team drafts a successful college QB in the first round is always filled with such hope and promise. The front office, players, and fan base all imagine the coming success and what it will be like to finally have a franchise QB lead their team to victory. The years of despair and bad QB play is finally coming to an end. All of the frustration and disappointment of watching inferior play while the losses pile up will be ending too.
Until, it doesn’t.
Sadly, kinda like buying a boat, the two greatest days are the one you get it, and the day you get rid of it.
Eagles fans know this with Wentz. More often than not, after a few frustrating years, everyone has seen enough of the shiny new toy that didn’t live up to expectations.
The emotional roller coaster of working, playing, or rooting for a team that is constantly on the Quarterback carousel is exhausting. It is also rarely successful. Identifying, drafting, developing, and keeping your franchise QB is the formula that has proven to be long term success.
If you looked at the list of SB winning QBs above, outside of the fact that most are first round picks, you will see the other important part of the equation. Teams keep their QBs. Bradshaw, Montana, Brady, Rodgers etc all spend 10 plus years with the same franchise. Through the ups and downs, season after season, teams will make many changes. The franchise QB is never one of those changes. They are always the constant.
Even for teams that don’t win a SB early on with their investment, they stay the course. (Ex: Elway finally won the SB in his 15th and 16th year! It also took Peyton Manning 9 seasons before he won his first, and he didn’t win another until his 18th year.
Coincidentally, Elway and Peyton are the only 2 QBs to retire after a SB win.
Teams always hold onto their prized possession. Since the salary cap was implemented in 1994, the QBs who have been willing to move money around, or accept less for the good of the team (like Brady) have won the most titles. For the teams with QBs who demand the highest salaries (Rodgers, Mahomes) they are usually, always competitive, but historically have only won 1 SB. In addition to being one and done as far as winning titles, the teammates, front office, and fans have watched their best players leave due to roster constraints regarding the cap.
This year alone, Rodgers and the Packers lost D Adams and the Chiefs and Mahomes lost T Hill. Something that rarely ever happened. Joe Montana and Jerry Rice, Steve Young and Jerry Rice, Troy Aikman and Michael Irvin, Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison, Kurt Warner and Isaac Bruce etc. Those pairings became synonymous, and legendary.
“You left Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes, I don’t know if I could’ve ever left Troy Aikman. I don’t think I could’ve done that.” Michael Irvin
There is not a position more valuable on the field than QB. There is nothing more valuable in the game than an elite QB.
“Elite” seems to mean different things to different people, but I would categorize it as being a top 5 QB. (Is top 10 really elite in a league of 32 teams? That’s 30% of all QBs being called elite.) A top 5 QB in their prime rarely, if ever, becomes available or at cost that will help a GM acquire one, while being able to manage a cap to put a winner on the field at the same time.
In short, drafting a QB in the first round doesn’t insure a SB but it does, without question, give teams their largest percentage advantage of winning one.
When Philadelphia Eagles GM Howie Roseman, regrettably, stated “We want to be a QB factory”, he was being honest and 100% correct. The best path to success in the NFL is by drafting first round QBs. Unfortunately, due to said salary cap and the fact only 1 QB can start, it is almost impossible to keep stocking up on first round QB’s more than every 4–5 years. You can keep drafting wide receivers in the first round (as the Eagles are finding out) as 3 or 4 can be on the field simultaneously. If you miss on one, as long as they’re serviceable, they become WR 3 instead of one. It is almost impossible to have 3 first round QBs on a team.
As the Eagles learned when they drafted Jalen Hurts, and the Packers have learned drafting Love, a QB’s psyche can’t seem to take the competitive spirit as well as the other positions. They regard themselves as not having to be in position that requires competition. To be fair, the media and fanbase immediately see it as a QB controversy too.
So.
Does having an elite QB give you more chances to make the playoffs? Yes, but the caveat is acquiring one you drafted in the first round.
Does having a top tier QB guarantee that you win more Super Bowls? No
Having a QB drafted in the first round does.
It takes a team, great relationships, good health, a lot of luck and hitting on Quarterbacks drafted in the first round.
You can’t go on a QB carousel every year.
Finding a player like Josh Allen, is like finding a needle in a haystack.
The Browns have been trying to find an elite QB for 22 years (since selecting Tim Couch ahead of D McNabb) and they have had much more draft capital (via terrible records) and much higher first round picks than any other team during that span.
Every GM in the league is trying to draft the next Mahomes etc.
Had the Eagles traded for R Wilson (who would have been 34 years old this season), historically, would not have resulted into winning a championship. Again omitting the unicorn that is Brady (he is the only outlier, numerous 1 hit wonders have won the SB they’re not the outlier) leaves five SB wins for Quarterbacks 35 and over. That means you have a 9% chance to win the SB, historically, with a QB over 35. Aaron Rodgers hasn’t done it. Montana didn’t, Bradshaw didn’t, Aikman didn’t, and they are all HOF QB who were the best of their era. That statistic exemplifies how rare it is to win a SB with an aging QB.
You get the picture. It takes a team!
Teams With Regrets:
Rams sent Roman Gabriel to the Eagles in 1973. In exchange for the former MVP, then 33 years old, Los Angeles received 2 first-rd picks & acclaimed wideout Harold Jackson. Eagles got one good season out of Gabriel.
49ers traded 3 first-rounders and a 2nd to the Patriots for Plunkett in 1976
Plunkett won his Super Bowls with the Oakland Raiders
One Eagles only Fact or Myth:
Specifically regarding the Philadelphia Eagles, there is a great divide between Hurt truthers and doubters. Every time I read a tweet about Jalen, or a story on him, the comments from his detractors are always the same.
I researched one of these comments that has been stated a lot regarding his statistics in 2021, mainly used to validate their opinion that he is not very good.
Regardless of the debates, the numbers, or how many games they’ve won. Until a player becomes perceived as the long term franchise QB, teams will always be looking for their guy.
In real life a common phrase I hear is “you can only count on two things in this world, death and taxes”.
In the NFL there are only two types of teams. Those with an elite QB, and those that are looking for one.
The 75 players above are listed in order, with their positional class:
QB: (5)
Malik Willis
Kenny Pickett
Desmond Ridder
Sam Howell
Matt Corall
WR: (13)
Garrett Wilson
Jameson Williams
Drake London
Treylon Burks
Chris Olave
Jahan Dotson
Christian Watson
George Pickens
Skyy Moore
Erik Ezukanma
John Metchie III
Alec Pierce
David Bell
RB: (3)
Breece Hall
Kenneth Walker III
Brian Robinson Jr.
TE: (1)
Trey McBride
OT: (7)
Ikem Ewkonu
Evan Neal
Charles Cross
Trevor Penning
Tyler Smith
Darian Kinnard
Bernhard Raimann
OG: (5)
Kenyon Green
Sean Rhyan
Zion Johnson
Lecitus Smith
Cole Strange
C: (1)
Tyler Linderbaum
Edge: (11)
Aidan Hutchinson
Travon Walker
Jermaine Johnson
Kayvon Thibodeaux
George Karlafitis
David Ojabo
Drake Jackson
Arnold Ebiketie
Boye Mafe
Kingsley Enagbare
Cameron Thomas
DT: (7)
Jordan Davis
Devonte Wyatt
Perrion Winfrey
Logan Hall
DeMarvin Leal
Phidarian Mathis
Travis Jones
LB: (6)
Devin lloyd
Nakobe Dean
Chad Muma
Quay Walker
Christian Harris
Channing Tindall
CB: (9)
Ahmad Gardner
Derek Stingley Jr
Kaiir Elam
Andrew Booth Jr
Trent McDuffie
Roger McCreary
Tariq Woolen
Kyler Gordon
Cam Britt-Taylor
S: (7)
Kyle Hamilton
Daxton Hill
Lewis Cine
Jaquan Brisker
Jalen Pitre
Bryan Cook
Kerby Joseph
A BIG Thank You to everyone who provides the clips and film breakdowns for the rest of us to study and learn from.
Follow a couple of them, listed below
@mattalkire @ian_cummings_9
You can find out what they have to say about each player by searching the prospects name behind their twitter handle in the search field.
Ex: @mattalkire Aidan
As always, thank you for reading
David
follow me @PHLEagleNews
4/6/22
The Extraordinarily Versatile Erik Ezukanma, NFL Draft Profile
If your team is in need of a wide receiver, and you like YAC (yards after catch). You are going to love Chukwuerika “Erik” Ezukanma!
Erik has been blessed with elite size, 6’3 220 lbs, and above average speed. Explosive and balanced while running his routes and after the catch, a simple arm tackle will not get him down. He is fearless and violent and always looking to hit the DB, not the other way around. Ezukanma uses his solid frame to shield off defenders on 50/50 balls, as well as his leaping ability, strong hands,and large catch radius. All of these attributes have enabled Erik to be an outstanding red zone threat.
During his career he has shown fantastic ball skills. He makes most catches with his hands (similiar to what Eagles receiver Quez Watkins did in college) at the high point. Erik also displays really good ball tracking ability. He is elusive once the ball in his hands and he never goes down easily, utilizing his great balance and body control.
Michael Macon, the senior writer for Viva The Matadors, described Erik. “He’s just a physically dominant receiver. With his combination of height, strength, and speed he’s a matchup nightmare. There aren’t many guys in the NFL even who could take him in a jump ball. He’s got outstanding hands, doesn’t have drop problems, and can reel in the tough catches.”
Do you want a WR with better RAC ability than Treylon Burks, with the same 33.5" arms and a 209-pound frame? Erik Ezukanma is your guy.
Sticking with what I see on this one: A high-level RAC and contested catch threat, with visible upside as a route runner. Severely underrated. pic.twitter.com/2Bl6EiZjpA
Ezukanma has been showing off all of these traits since his days at Timber Creek High School in Ft Worth, Texas. The Fort Worth native had a breakout season his High School Junior year when he hauled in 1447 receiving yds and 20 td’s.
That same year, the Timber Creek High School junior became the only player from the Dallas/Fort Worth area to make the Maxpreps 2016 Junior All-American Team. He was also named Associated Press all state, District 3–6A Offensive MVP and is selected as a part of the Star Telegram super team.
During his Senior year he described where he saw his future heading, as well as some advice to other students.
“In five years, I see myself as a senior in college furthering my education to get my degree, or making my dream come true by making my run in the NFL,” he beamed. “The advice I give (to students) is to put yourself around the right people that will bring you up, not down. Create a brand of yourself, put in a lot of work on and off the field, and last but not least, take advantage of every opportunity you get, because you will never know if you will get it again.”
He finished his High School career with 2,471 receiving yards and 32 touchdowns. “Eazy E” added another dimension to the offense by rushing for 383 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns. A role he continued in college, and will in the NFL.
Following graduation, Erik committed to Texas Tech. In 2018 he appeared in 2 games as a red shirt and scored the first touchdown of his career. A precursor of things to come.
By season’s end in 2019, Erik was the top offensive weapon for the Red Raiders and was a member of the Captains Circle (which speaks volumes to how his teammates regarded him.) Ezukanma became the first receiver since Michael Crabtree in 2007 to lead the Red Raiders in receiving yards as a freshman, 42–664–4.
In 10 games during the 2020 season Erik had 46 catches for 748 yards and 6 td’s. He earned first team All big 12 honors, being recognized as one of best WR in the Big 12 conference.
Last year, 2021, was more of the same production Texas Tech had become accustomed to. He played in 11 games reeling in 48 receptions for 705 yards and 4 td’s. He also continued his versatile play by adding 10 carries for 138 yards and 2 td’s.
During his college career at Texas Tech, the Red Raiders utilized Erik in a variety of ways. The sole purpose was to get the ball into their playmakers hand. If he makes the first man miss, he is usually gone. Using his elusive and quick style of play, Erik lined up on the outside, the slot, and in motion. He was also used on wide receiver screens, as a running back in wildcat formations, and on jet sweeps.
So, you now have a 6'3, 220lb slot/wide versatile in Erik Ezukanma that flexes into the Wildcat here and shows you this kind of acceleration on a 33yd run. pic.twitter.com/qAvvx0li9x
Erik finished his collegiate career as a two time Big 12 honoree with an impressive 138 receptions for 2165 yards and 15 td’s, despite being the focal point for opposing defenses and facing a lot of double teams.
With the 2022 NFL draft approaching, Erik has realized his 2017 premonition mentioned above, and is “making his run” to the NFL just like he stated. He already has patterned his game after two very successful wideouts.
“A guy like Justin Jefferson, I feel like we have a similar body type,” Ezukanma said. “I love the way he runs routes, as well as Keenan Allen. And I want to model my game after those guys because of how they run routes as well as their size.”
Erik also described what he will bringing to whichever NFL team drafts him.
“Every time I touch the ball, I’m looking to score, regardless of where I’m at on the field. At running back, when you get the ball in the backfield, you’re running downhill. At receiver, when I catch a curl or comeback, I’m turning upfield, trying to get contact as soon as I get the ball and trying to score.”
Finishing a career where he had 138 receptions, 2,165 yards and 15 TD's. Will he be the next Wide Receiver in line for @TexasTechFB to be drafted into the NFL??? pic.twitter.com/o7ecnriwO3
— Red Raider Nation (@RedRaiderNation) April 1, 2022
Some scouts have opined that Erik has a similar build as Davante Adams, and that might be what attracted the Packers GM to him at the combine.
Following their team interview with Texas Tech WR Erik Ezukanma; the Packers GM, Brian Gutekunst, stated “We see a lot of similarities to Tee Higgins and could see Erik in that complimentary role to Davante.”
Now that Davante is gone, maybe they see him as his replacement.
One thing is for sure, whoever drafts Ezukanma during this April’s draft is going to get a player dedicated to taking care of their body and craft. Particularly his route running.
“That’s the biggest thing that I’m working on at this moment. I feel like I have all the other intangibles. But you can never get perfect at route running. You can always get better at that, and make sure you have that ability.”
He wants all NFL teams to know that he is ready to contribute.
“Put me anywhere on the field, and I’ll get the job done for you.”
As always, Thank You for reading!
David
Follow me @PHLEagleNews
4/4/2022
Potential Surprising Eagles Draft Picks That Should Not Surprise Us
I started this article before the Barnett re-signing which may be putting Philly fully over the edge (no pun intended) on the offseason. This article may have some more relevance now though as it is sort of a preventative mental health post ahead of the draft to ready ourselves.
I wrote recently that the actual draft rarely goes the way the consensus pre-draft mocks look and there are very real scenarios where what we all want doesn’t happen. Edges fly off the board quickly… Howie continues to settle for mid-round corners…value isn’t there on a receiver… the Eagles think they are set at linebacker and safety…
This article will live by the old “better to be a pessimist because you are either right or pleasantly surprised” adage. It builds on the prior post on mock draft accuracy and goes deeper on some options where I forced myself to think of what positions without apparent need could be selected high and why they would make sense. None of these I actually hate… they wouldn’t be what I would do based on need, but every player I list below I absolutely love. They would all make the Eagles better. And hopefully it prepares me for whatever surprises happen on draft weekend when the guys I really want – the Jordan Davis’, Trent McDuffies, Lewis Cines, Dax Hills, Jermaine Johnsons, and Christian Watsons – don’t happen.
Oh, and I’m not getting into a round 1 QB here at all.
A round 1 tackle
I wrote on a tackle here before so will be brief. Would Howie go tackle? Sure, while we will get angry on a pick not matching what we think, none of us would really be surprised. But should they go tackle? It’s not a need, but it is by no means crazy to think they could depending on how the board falls and if Howie has some guys graded high.
Both Lane and Mailata are playing at a high level. Mailata was recently committed to and is young. Lane is under contract until 2025 and really hard to move anytime before 2024 or 2025 even if they wanted to. But injuries happen – Lane has missed 17 games over the last 3 seasons and depth behind Lane and Mailata is marginal. Dillard can’t play RT and then you have Le’Raven Clark and Jack Driscoll.
Using a first on a player that you don’t have a reasonable plan to get on the field is not a good use of capital, but there are players that could still play. I wrote about Trevor Penning previously but will add another name here in Darian Kinnard. Both are tackles that could still hit the field by moving to guard and be positioned longer-term for RT. I don’t love shuffling linemen between positions but it is an option. And many differ on if Penning and Kinnard are tackles or guards in the NFL.
Trevor Penning, everyone. #Jets GM Joe Douglas has spent a lot of time with him today.
Likelihood: I think this is pretty low, it would take a lot of the defensive line, receivers, and corners to be off the board by one of the Eagles picks. But if there isn’t a run on quarterbacks early, in Howie’s eyes the best player available later in the 1st could be a tackle.
RB1 in the second round
I have to catch myself from dismissing drafting running backs anywhere high as I, like so many, think it is generally a bad idea. But would it be crazy for the Eagles to take Breece Hall at 51 if he is sitting there? I am sure they will take some RB depth but I am talking about taking the top RB and first off the board. Reasons this could happen:
Running backs still go high
No matter what we think and how low we all mock RBs, they go surprisingly high year-after-year. Here are the pick locations of the first two running backs drafted since 2010:
I included the first two RBs taken because many will just point to the ridiculously high picks of Ezekiel and Saquon. But even those years, the next RB was taken at picks 27 and 45. The first RB taken has a median pick location of 17. Pick 17! Only twice since 2010 has a running back NOT been taken in the 1st and six times two have been taken in the 1st. The latest that RB1 went off the board in the last 10 years was pick 54 in 2014. And contrary to what most probably believe, this isn’t a “well, that was years ago when teams valued RBs higher”… the draft capital allocated to the top 5 RBs has barely changed over the past 10 years.
Sirianni is connected to Iowa State
Sirianni’s college teammate, Matt Campbell, is the current Iowa State head coach. Maybe a past connection is overthinking it, but we know Nick and the Eagles love guys they have some connection to (Nick’s coaching staff, Anthony Harris, this entire offseason, etc.) And the Eagles have already been connected at the Combine and pro days to two Iowa State draft prospects this year: Breece Hall and Charlie Kolar (more on Kolar shortly).
But what about Miles and Gainwell?
But what about Miles? Sanders has missed 4 games each of the last two seasons and while nobody knows what Howie will do, I highly doubt Sanders gets a second contract. If Breece Hall falls to them, do they trade Sanders in the summer for a late pick and save another $1.2M on the cap?
And what about Gainwell? He probably isn’t an every down back and if Miles is moved, Gainwell keeps his role. But he is much more of a pass catcher and could play a bigger role there – in 2021, he had 50 pass targets vs. 69 rush attempts. And it wasn’t just passes-that-were-really-runs out of the backfield – Gainwell lined up in the slot or out wide 20% of the time.
Breece could be the BPA
Breece Hall has a current expected draft position around 40 and if, for some reason, he is available at or near 51, he would almost definitely be the best player available. Howie has repeated that they will draft the best players on their board and he is not averse to taking a RB – Miles Sanders was at pick 53 just a few years ago. Hall is a big, every down back that can catch and the Eagles were, whether by choice or necessity, a running team last year.
This is one of my favorite clips from Matt Alkire on Breece. Plenty of big and flashy run clips out there, this isn’t one of them but it makes me think “what would Miles have done here? Would he have bounced outside to the left and turned it into nothing?”
Not a big gain, but love the run and talk a bit about why Breece Hall has been RB1 the whole process for me. pic.twitter.com/Cn6gUiCjbZ
Likelihood: This would be in the “not high but higher than most think” category. It would take some stars aligning – I don’t think Hall will make it to 51 and I doubt the Eagles move up for a RB, but if RBs fell this year and the Eagles find themselves with a pick in a location of value, I could see it.
A day 2 tight end
Again a position that is not viewed as a need with Goedert, Stoll, and Tyree Jackson but the Eagles still run one of the highest rates of 12 (25%) and 13 personnel (10%) in the league. While that alone doesn’t mean they will continue to or should, they have had success in multi-tight end sets with the second best successful play rate in the NFL behind the Chiefs. They were very run-heavy out of multiple TE groupings, especially after week 6 when Ertz was traded, running 70% of the time, also 2nd highest in the league.
Tyree has all the potential in the world but is still unproven and I wonder how much he will even see the field this year after his ACL tear. Stoll is a guy. Would the Eagles take a tight end somewhere on day 2? Maybe. I’ll give two options:
Trey McBride – TE1 in the class with an all-around game and near the top of every statistical category
2nd with 2.78 a Y/RR and 2nd against man coverage with a 2.64 Y/RR
Top rated blocking TE prospect with over 1,100 blocking snaps in college career
5.0 YAC/reception which is in the neighborhood of players like Drake London, Jahan Dotson, and Skyy Moore this year
I wasn’t going to post a blocking clip but he is incredibly impressive blocking and takes it seriously as a part of his game. But there is clip after clip of him hauling balls in like this:
Turns out the Summer All Hollywood Team is running a lot of 12 personnel because I love Colorado State TE Trey McBride’s film.
— Dante Collinelli (@DanteCollinelli) July 1, 2021
Charlie Kolar – one of “my guys” and somebody I have mocked several times, not as high on TE boards but I believe will draft a lot higher than expected:
4th with a 2.08 Y/RR but led college TEs with a 3.36 Y/RR vs. man coverage
Highly athletic, ranking 24th out of 965 TEs since 1987
63 receptions this year were most by a Power 5 TE since 2017
2.9% career drop rate
Led TE prospects with a 66.7% contested catch rate
34.5″ arms, only two tackles in 2021 had longer arms
Of all the clips I posted, this is my favorite and most relevant to the Eagles and it isn’t even a clip of Kolar playing. Watch this story of Kolar playing pickleball with Coach Campbell and tell me this is not 100%, absolutely a lock Nick Sirianni guy. And, Kolar is an ex-basketball player that played with Trae Young in high school – I just wonder what the Nick / Charlie pre-Combine meeting basketball games were like.
Charlie Kolar + pickleball = my favorite story Matt Campbell has ever told during a press conference. (H/T to question-asker @J_SchaefferWOI) pic.twitter.com/BD301yn6hV
Likelihood: A round 2 TE I think would be pretty low likelihood but a R3-4 pick I think has a much higher chance than most give it. We always think wide receiver when we hear Howie say they want to surround Hurts with weapons, but TE is an important position to them and they get two on the field. Like Breece Hall above, Kolar has the Iowa State / Sirianni connection.
And I’ll just share this from anonymous ex-Eagles scout / potential Howie burner account @TheHonestNFL (joking on the burner account comment):
Kolar is a legitimate target for the Eagles. Really interesting prospect. Him and Trey McBride are names I hear a lot of. Expanding their 12-personnel package is a focus this offseason. https://t.co/xcM9Y4TukN
I want to state again before people hate all of the above, this is not what I am recommending, I would prioritize high the same positions others are looking at – defensive line, corner, wide receiver, safety. I’m just putting out some picks that maybe shouldn’t surprise us. And these are not “bad” picks, just picks that are not priority needs. They are all really good players. Tackle and to a lesser degree tight end are premium positions (but tight end is increasing recently as shown by free agency prices) that you can defend investing on in the draft.
If you forced me to pick at least 1 or 2 of the above, I would mock something like this with Breece Hall in the 2nd and Charlie Kolar in the 3rd:
R1-15: EDGE George Karlaftis
R1-16 Traded to Buffalo for R1-25, R3-89, 2023 2nd – BUF takes WR Treylon Burks
R1-19: S Daxton Hill R1-25: WR Christian Watson R2-51: RB Breece Hall R3-83: CB Cam Taylor-Britt R3-89: TE Charlie Kolar
The Eagles walk away with a monster edge, a versatile safety that does exactly what they want and can play all over, a top zone corner, the draft’s best running back, a big, freak athlete at receiver, and a big, fast, tight end that would be an absolute weapon.
The Enigma, Philadelphia Eagles WR Jalen Reagor
It has been 2 long seasons, and I hate calling any 23 year old player a bust after a couple years, but 88 catches, 929 yards and a measly 4 touchdowns in two years are pretty anemic numbers. After the initial excitement during the summer leading into the season the Head Coach stated “I think he’s had a heck of a training camp.” That same coaching staff now has questioned his desire to play through an ankle injury. The guys in the locker room never mention him. The fans are ready to run him out of town. Davante Adams is just no longer wanted in Green Bay.
Yes, those are real reports and stats for one of the most dynamic receivers in the league over his first 2 years.
One Green Bay article read “Fans pounded their fists, angry that the second-round pick didn’t step up when Jordy Nelson missed all of last season. As we know, Adams completely flopped in his 2nd season. A low ankle sprain forced him to miss 3 full games, but that doesn’t excuse the horribly inefficient season he had replacing Jordy Nelson.”
Harsh criticism for a future number one receiver.
My how times have changed.
I want to be clear, I am in NO way comparing Davante Adams to Jalen Reagor.
(Nicholson: Are we clear? Cruise: Yes Sir. Nicholson: ARE WE CLEAR? Cruise: Crystal)
Sorry for the Few Good Men reference.
All I am saying is, you never know.
He may surprise everyone. Some team may believe in him more than anyone realizes and trade for him. Nobody knows. Below are some things we do know.
Look at the numbers after 2 seasons:
Reagor 64, 695, 3
Adams 88, 929, 4
Devante’s 3rd year in the league, 2016, is when he finally turned it on with 75 receptions, 997 yards, and a 12 TD campaign.
So can Jalen turn things around in his third season to even be a 3rd or 4th WR option in the Eagles 2022 offense? We would first need to know what went wrong with Reagor last year and how to fix it.
For starters, he failed a conditioning test upon his arrival to training camp. (Dallas Goedert failed the conditioning test as well, but it went largley under reported) Reagor also wasn’t in the right place emotionally. Jalen was dealing with the recent murder of a close childhood friend, which understandably “weighed heavily” and contributed to his not being ready.
But this is the NFL, and each individual is responsible for themselves and must be accountable. 52 other men who line up on the field are counting on you. Ownership, coaches, fans, and stadium workers are all counting on you too. To be fair to Jalen, I have never heard or read that he has used any of these excuses for his shortcomings.
In a previous era and time his struggles would have been seen as unacceptable, and he would have been viewed as weak. But this is 2022, mental health and depression are now at the forefront of our consciousness. Acceptance for those suffering from emotional and psychological issues has been slow, but it has progressed by leaps and bounds compared to where it was 20 years ago. Especially in the NFL. Make no mistake, it is still not where it should be.
In hindsight, Reagor probably should have taken some time to heal. If you dispute that notion, make sure you have deleted all of your receipts on the timeline begging the Eagles to acquire Calvin Ridley. Ridley was a player most every fan (and the Eagles) were excited about getting, until he was suspended for gambling. Ridley took the entire 2021 season off to get his mental health under control. It isn’t fair to accept that from a star player who is already successful and established but not from a second year player trying to make a leap during their second season.
Reagor started off 2021 in the wrong head space, and seemingly never recovered. As much as he frustrated everyone with his play, I have to admit, I admired that he constantly wanted the ball. He struggled mightily, but his desire to contribute as a receiver or a returner never wavered.
Towards the end of the season I opined that the Eagles needed to save him from himself. He was going to continue to field punts, run routes and struggle doing it all until he was taken off the field. He was fighting, but it just wasn’t ending in positive results. It is hard for me not to root for anyone who has the type of fight in them that he displayed. He wanted to succeed badly, but at the end of the day this is a results based business. His results were not good enough.
2022 is a make or break year for Reagor. He needs to come into camp with a purpose, a clear mind, and a body that is in the rhetorical “best shape of his life”. He needs to show everyone that he wants it as bad as everyone else wants it for him. Then he needs to take it!
Reagor may never come close to Devante Adams. I only mentioned it as an example of why teams are reluctant to move on from players that could potentially develop later, rather than sooner. It is risky business to move on from a player that you have under control for 5 seasons, after two years. Due to cap implications, it is not financially sound. In addition, it is not beneifical in the teams efforts to develop athletes. Not every player will produce within the same time frame. All athletes are not created equal. Some need more time than others to mature. Others may need more coaching, more experience, more whatever.
Nobody should question somebody’s mental state. At some point, much like with Ben Simmons, it gets to a place where nobody wants to hear about it anymore. Jalen Reagor is at that point. To some of you he is past that point.
That being said, the Eagles (or whatever team Reagor plays for) do not owe him anything. He will have to earn his playing time, and then he will have to produce in order to keep it.
Reagor hasn’t performed how Howie and the Eagles envisioned, but that doesn’t mean he won’t ever be an asset for the team. A productive, mentally sound and physically healthy Jalen Reagor would be what’s in everyone’s best interest.
I am hoping 2022 can be his year. I am wishing him health and rooting for him in whatever he role he plays on the team.
