Well, Howie continues to surprise us… And I was wrong.
I didn’t expect a LB to be taken high, instead thinking DT followed by IOL and CB were the likeliest picks at 32. And if I was in Howie’s seat, I probably couldn’t have resisted taking Will Johnson (as long as the medicals checked out).
The simplest answers for the Jihaad Campbell pick are the obvious ones. First, Howie and team had him graded much higher than anybody else on the board. And second, Vic Fangio clearly is raising the importance of LB inside the organization.
But I wanted to dive in a bit deeper, especially in context of positional value and historical draft hit rates. After looking at how the draft played out, taking Jihaad here was not only likely the best player on the board, but Howie may have made the right pick from a positional value perspective.
How the 2025 draft shifted positional value
I wrote in my positional value article on how the financial side of draft picks (especially high picks) matters. Because of the rookie wage scale, picks are paid a set amount based on their draft slot and position doesn’t matter. Draft QB Cam Ward 1st overall? The contract is $12.2M AAV. Draft a punter at 1 overall instead? Still $12.2M AAV.
Maximizing the value of high picks matters which is why the most heavily drafted positions (WR, EDGE, DT, OT) are typically also the most expensive positions to get in free agency.
I included the chart below which uses player contract values mapped to historical expected player value in the draft at the Eagles first two picks, picks 32 and 64. Based on draft averages, the average DT drafted at 32 would cost $16.5M to replace in free agency, the average CB $14.9M, and average LB $12.7M.
| Position | R1-32 | R2-64 |
|---|---|---|
| Off-QB | $31.2M | $12.6M |
| Off-WR | $20.9M | $13.5M |
| Def-ED | $19.1M | $11.8M |
| Off-T | $16.7M | $11.0M |
| Def-IDL | $16.5M | $11.0M |
| Def-CB | $14.9M | $10.0M |
| Off-IOL | $14.3M | $10.2M |
| Off-RB | $12.8M | $9.9M |
| Def-LB | $12.7M | $9.4M |
| Def-SAF | $12.1M | $8.3M |
| Off-TE | $11.7M | $8.2M |
Howie, a long-time adherent to positional value, had guys they had interest in at much more expensive positions like EDGE Donovan Ezeiruaku, OL Jonah Savaiinaea, and DT TJ Sanders all still on the board at 32. And Howie has said and shown that he will lean towards the higher value position if two players are graded near each other.
But the thing with positional value is it’s not absolute. It’s all based on historical trends – what positions cost, what value player typically comes out at that part of the draft, and how many players at a position get taken.
Beyond the Eagles just loving Jihaad the player, the key thing that was different this year was how heavily both DT and EDGE were drafted ahead of the Eagles pick. Howie’s favored trench positions were highly drafted ahead of 32:
- Historically, just over 3 DTs are taken by pick 32, this year 6 had been taken.
- Even in a weak OL class, 7 went by pick 32 vs. just over 5 historically.
How positional value looked at pick 32 this year
Here’s a look at how LB, DT, and EDGE all looked at 32, including the player value historically drafted and corresponding positional value.
Linebacker
With no LBs off the board (I am listing Jalon Walker as an EDGE as that’s what ATL drafted him as), Howie was drafting LB1. And teams drafting LB1, on average around pick 19, have historically gotten a very good player:
- Averaged a 72nd percentile value (better than 72% of other players) with 4 of 10 having value percentiles above 80 with only 2 below 60
- Equated to a $14.3M AAV NFL contract value
You will see some very good names below.
| Year | Pick # | Player | Team | Value Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | R1-25 | Shaq Thompson | CAR | 67 |
| 2016 | R1-20 | Darron Lee | NYJ | 63 |
| 2017 | R1-21 | Jarrad Davis | DET | 58 |
| 2018 | R1-8 | Roquan Smith | CHI | 99 |
| 2019 | R1-5 | Devin White | TAM | 94 |
| 2020 | R1-8 | Isaiah Simmons | ARI | 57 |
| 2021 | R1-19 | Jamin Davis | WAS | 57 |
| 2022 | R1-22 | Quay Walker | GNB | 82 |
| 2023 | R1-18 | Jack Campbell | DET | 89 |
| 2024 | R2-45 | Edgerrin Cooper | GNB | 61 |
Defensive Tackle
Howie would have been picking DT7 and I while I loved TJ Sanders (and would have had on my short list of options there), nobody had him ranked anywhere near Jihaad.
What have teams typically gotten with DT7? Over the last ten drafts, DT7 has been taken around pick 72, which again shows how massive this draft was for DT.
- Averaged 38th percentile player value with only one (Derrick Nnadi) above 70th percentile and a lot of “busts”
- Equated to a $10M contract value
This isn’t a compelling list of draft picks… and while this was seen as a very strong DT class, it’s dangerous to force a pick and think you are smarter than history and the rest of the league in the draft.
| Year | Pick # | Player | Team | Value Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | R3-90 | Carl Davis | BAL | 26 |
| 2016 | R2-43 | Austin Johnson | TEN | 54 |
| 2017 | R3-88 | Eddie Vanderdoes | LVR | 22 |
| 2018 | R3-75 | Derrick Nnadi | KAN | 72 |
| 2019 | R1-29 | L.J. Collier | SEA | 41 |
| 2020 | R3-73 | DaVon Hamilton | JAX | 52 |
| 2021 | R4-117 | Bobby Brown | LAR | 51 |
| 2022 | R4-108 | Perrion Winfrey | CLE | 4 |
| 2023 | R3-64 | Zacch Pickens | CHI | 26 |
| 2024 | R2-48 | Maason Smith | JAX | 34 |
EDGE
I really didn’t think EDGE was a likely high pick as I thought this was a very average EDGE class after Abdul Carter. But it was a highly mocked pick and the Eagles did show some interest in guys like Ezeiruaku. What has EDGE5 delivered in the draft?
- Averaged a 43 percentile pro, with really only two good picks at EDGE5
- Equates to a $10M contract value
EDGE has one of the higher 1st round miss rates and, again, the list below isn’t a compelling group of picks with a wide range. For every Brian Burns or George Karlaftis, there are 2-3 Payton Turners or Myles Murphys.
| Year | Pick # | Player | Team | Value Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | R1-23 | Shane Ray | DEN | 56 |
| 2016 | R2-33 | Kevin Dodd | TEN | 7 |
| 2017 | R1-26 | Takkarist McKinley | ATL | 38 |
| 2018 | R2-48 | Uchenna Nwosu | LAC | 56 |
| 2019 | R1-16 | Brian Burns | CAR | 89 |
| 2020 | R2-54 | A.J. Epenesa | BUF | 49 |
| 2021 | R1-28 | Payton Turner | NOR | 11 |
| 2022 | R1-30 | George Karlaftis III | KAN | 88 |
| 2023 | R1-28 | Myles Murphy | CIN | 17 |
| 2024 | R2-56 | Marshawn Kneeland | DAL | 18 |
None of the above numbers on average player valuations or projected contract values are perfect – obviously the player matters. And who knows, Jihaad could have a mediocre career while passed-over guys Donovan Ezeiruaku or Will Johnson could be all-pros. But the things to remember are:
- When position groups get heavily drafted like DL this year, relative value in other positions rises
- Positional value ultimately depends on the value of the player you are getting
Howie and his staff bet on Jihaad Campbell as a player which was not only a good bet on the player on the field, but probably was an equal or better positional value bet this year at pick 32.