Eagles 2025 draft targets: Trade ups, lucky falls, trade downs, and who I’m passing on

In late December, I wrote on my targets for each draft day based on early big board projections and wanted to update with a sharper look at the 1st round (last year I wrote a similar article focused on the 1st round).

This year more than maybe any other, it is so hard to just lock in on a single position, let alone player, for an Eagles mock. First, picking at 32 the possibilities are more open as positional value degrades some (but not totally). Second, Howie has done a great job letting the board fall to him the last several years and it’s paid off.

But as always, I’ll “think like Howie”:

Draft ahead of needs: The Eagles have a young, stacked roster and have fewer “screaming” future needs than they have in past year (except TE if they trade Goedert). But positions like DT, SAF, and CB are positions that they will need.

Positional value: I just wrote on this and it’s real and something Howie follows – since Howie returned in 2016, the highest a non-premium position was taken was Dallas Goedert at pick 49 in 2018 – the other 12 picks were DL, OL, CB, WR, and QB. Could they take a SAF or TE? Maybe, but I really doubt it.

Taking the value in the draft: This year’s strongest position groups look to be DL, TE, SAF, and RB. WR is good but down from recent years, CB and LB have some top-end strength, and OL is much weaker than recent years especially at OT.

Last year, I focused more on who I would take and had guys in there I knew the Eagles weren’t targeting like Nate Wiggins and Graham Barton. This year, I’ll still include some of my guys but will focus much more on the guys they have shown interest in as they always take somebody they have met with.

So here are the 12 guys I am targeting with 4 DTs, 3 EDGEs, 1 CB, 1 WR, 1 TE, 1 SAF, and 1 OL – I’m shopping where the strength of this class is.

There are other guys it’s love to take but left them off given their current high EDP – Will Johnson (EDP 11), Derrick Harmon (EDP 17), and Shemar Stewart (EDP 13 and a higher boom/bust guy).

He was my top R1 guy in December and still is. Nolen is reportedly dropping in the draft which I won’t believe until I see it as there is no way a team should be allowed to have both Jalen Carter and Walter Nolen. And he’s probably the only guy in this draft I would make a small trade-up for if he got close to their pick.

He was doubled more than almost anybody this year (64% vs. LSU, 72% vs UGA) and still produced with a 19% pass rush win rate. He has some character concerns that Howie would need to be good with but on the field, he can be dominant.

The Eagles have barely shown interest in WRs and definitely not anybody projected in the top 100, so this won’t happen. And with DeVonta and AJ locked up for years, I get it. But if Emeka falls to them (and he could if teams go with Golden over him), I would take him and figure it out.

Another guy the Eagles haven’t shown any interest in but the single best place Philly could save future cap is Jordan Davis’ position. If Grant were to fall (which I don’t expect), he should be a guy you think hard about – he allows you to reset the cost at the interior instead of likely paying $20M AAV soon.

Just going off of current EDPs, there isn’t a big list of guys I get excited about at 32, although this will surely be different on draft day. But here are two that should be there are worthy to take without dropping.

Projected a bit lower, I’ve said all along he that he’s a R1 corner. He’s got the speed, competitiveness, and gets his hands on the ball a ton. In a really flawed corner class where the top guys all have injury histories and day 2 weakens quite a bit, he may be the safest outside CB in this class and a guy I think goes higher than projection.

In my positional value article, I had Donovan as my “I’d put money on the pick” pick. It’s a rough year for OL but there are guys and Donovan fits everything the Eagles want – positional versatility, leadership, athleticism. And, he’s likely going to be good value in the top half of R2.

He’s most likely a guard in the NFL but showed he can play tackle and several teams see him as one. His first game at OT was against Abdul Carter and while he had some rough reps, the thing I kept thinking is “if he could just get more depth on his first step…” and Stout can likely do that.

I fully expect this to be what actually happens and it makes sense:

• The strength in this draft is day 2 depth and for whatever draft sims are worth, so often I am un-inspired with the options at 32
• They could get value from teams trying to trade up for one of the 2nd tier QBs
• Howie has already said they have fewer than 32 1st round grades – this is true most years but with them picking 32nd, it just makes even more sense
• And besides DL, the positions that the Eagles are likely to be interested in are day 2 values and not something to take higher

A guy I have loved to the Eagles since I first watched him, I expected him to rise more pre-draft but he’s still projected late R2. But he’s a guy that should go higher and my perfect draft would be trade down for extra day 2 capital and TJ’s name being called to Philly. His 21% win rate and 11% run stop rate project right up with top guys in recent drafts and he’s still getting better.

Besides Josaiah Stewart, he’s my favorite EDGE target for the Eagles. A month or two ago he was a late day 2, early day 3 guy but has risen pre-draft to the middle of day 2. And I expect him higher come draft day as he’s produced, has the traits you want, and fits Fangio’s scheme in an EDGE class that has a lot of guys with low college production.

He was solidly in R1 earlier this off-season and dropped off quite a bit. As a pass rusher, he’s one of the better in this class – he has some of the best quick pressure and win rate rates in this class. But he suffers a bit setting the edge and has some off-field nonsense that needs to be understood.

Another guy that likely won’t happen as the Eagles haven’t shown interest in him and his testing isn’t quite what they typically look for. But instincts and play recognition make up more time on field that a few hundredths of a second on a 40. And Watts has that. He has the 2nd best EPA/target in this class behind only Mukuba (who will be a potential Eagles target) and the top deserved catch rate (measures allowed reception rate on catchable passes, adjusting for poor targets).

I have him on the list as Ezeiruaku may be the most commonly mocked R1 pick right now and I wouldn’t be surprised if he was the pick. I like him, I just don’t love him at 32 and think there are a few concerns on edge setting and level of competition.

He hasn’t gone against future pro OTs except for Membou this year (and that was only for a handful of snaps as Donovan primarily lined up on the left side) and he was mostly erased that game with 2 pressures on 29 snaps – I value film vs. future pros and he really doesn’t have it the past 2 seasons.

The Eagles are definitely going to take a TE and this is the range where it starts making sense, either with a decent trade down or with their 2nd pick. Few TEs coming out block well but he was in pass protection 2nd most in this class (behind Gunnar), so he’s got experience. I like him here, but don’t love him here as I think there is likely better value at other positions – I’d rather have one of the DTs with Gunnar in the 3rd over Mason in the 2nd and whatever is left in the 3rd, but he would be a good pick here.

If you notice a trend of DTs, it’s because it’s a need, an expensive position, and the draft is loaded with them. Another guy the Eagles have met with and great value with a trade down as another Davis replacement or hedge.

The R1 SAFs…

They need a safety but I’m not sold on either Malaki Starks (solid, but not special) or Nick Emmanwori (traits, but was often relying on athleticism and not anticipating) and think there would be better value, and better use of draft capital, at their first pick. Safety is still a cheap and easier position to get in free agency, so if you are drafting one high they better be special and I don’t feel good declaring either of these guys as special… I’d much rather take Watts, Mukuba, or Malachi Moore later.

… and the R1 TEs

Although I would be tempted if Colston Loveland (who is TE1 by a margin in my opinion) fell to their pick, I don’t think this would be the best use of capital. It’s the worst position by positional value, has a pretty poor record for teams taking one high, and next year’s free agent class will be an all-time group to go get one if you wanted. Let another team make the mistake drafting a TE high and get one on day 2 in this really deep TE class.

Some of the top guys with baggage

The Mike Green interest has cooled from it’s once insane level amonst Eagles fans, but it’s still out there. Same with Maxwell Hairston who they actually brought in for a visit. Besides their off-field allegations, neither are R1 talents IMO.

James Pearce is a guy that is starting to show up on Eagles mocks as he has slipped and his talent on field is noticeable. But there are real questions on his work ethic and character and something the Eagles have been good to stay clear of.

Injury and/or age issues

Interest in Shavon Revel has also died off but he’s another that screams risk – traits yes, but he tore his ACL, will be 24, faced weaker competition, and gave up a ton of big plays on film.

Josh Simmons would be a great OL pick to eventually slide to OT but he tore his patella tendon (same as Nakobe) which has really bad recovery data.

Benjamin Morrison‘s recovery is concerning as there is just so little info (although the teams probably have more). He has fallen quite a bit and it will be interesting to see where he goes, but on film, I thought he was CB1 material. I would absolutely look at him if he was there on day 2 though.

The various OTs that are going to be over-drafted

In a weak position class, it is unavoidable that players are over-drafted (and the opposite in strong positional classes, which is why the Eagles would be well-served focusing on DL with their top pick).

And this is one where I differ from the Eagles as they have shown interest in a few of these guys. Josh Conerly (EDP 34) doesn’t have OT length and has concerning anchor against top pass rushers. Jonah Savaiinaea (EDP 59) doesn’t have the movement skills the Eagles typically want and another with questionable anchor against power.

They haven’t met with Aireontae Ersery (EDP 48) who I like more than the others but he probably lacks the length to stay at OT. But in a down year, a guy like Aireontae looks better.

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Closing thoughts

My final thoughts on this Eagles draft:

It’s hard to keep hitting in the draft – This is from the pessimist side of me that my wife always hates… Howie has done a masterful job since 2021 hitting in the draft, particularly with his highest value top picks. But drafting is hard and the league is wrong around 40% of the time in the 1st round.

Since 2000, 51 times teams have had 3 consecutive above expectation value drafts… only 19 of those went on to a 4th consecutive year and only 8 hit 5 years in a row. Good GMs will miss and at some point Howie will too.

Know where the Eagles are – They have a great, young roster and this is expected to be a down year in the draft. Trading back will likely be a downer for many but it makes so much sense – having more picks with this roster is more important than trading future assets to move up for a favorite in this class, especially at a non-premium position (speaking to the Tyler Warren, Malaki Starks, and Nick Emmanwori believers).

Don’t overthink it – Howie has done a great job letting value fall to him which is partly him not locking into a need and partly the league passing on guys they shouldn’t have. It’s just less likely to happen this year picking 32nd. But Howie should (and will) let the value fall to him. And this is why I am so heavy on DL above as that is where the screaming value will be in this draft most likely.

Go Birds and good luck to us all in the draft!