I got some pushback on my future cap article having Jalen Carter getting over $40M AAV in his upcoming extension. To many, $40M seems like such an unreachable number as we are all just getting comfortable in the mid $20Ms… but Carter is going to hit it and possibly more, being the guy to set the DT market next year.
Here’s how I’m thinking about it.
First, getting a comp for Carter
Let’s start with who Jalen Carter’s contract comp should be: It’s Chris Jones.
Jones, extended in 2024, is still the top DT contract in the league and $4M ahead of the next closest. Below are the top 5 DT contracts as of March 2025:
| Player | AAV | Total Contract | Signed | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Jones | $31.75M | 5yr / $158.75M | 2024 | 30 |
| Christian Wilkins | $27.50M | 5yr / $110M | 2024 | 29 |
| Milton Williams | $26.00M | 4yr / $104M | 2025 | 26 |
| Nnamdi Madubuike | $24.50M | 4yr / $98M | 2024 | 27 |
| Alim McNeill | $24.25M | 4yr / $97M | 2024 | 24 |
Most view Jones as the best DT in the league and he is statistically, but Carter is right with him. Both face double-team rates above 70%, well ahead of the other top contract guys, and both still produce at a silly rate.
Carter is first in forced fumbles, batted passes, and TFLs, second in hits and hurries, a near 13% win rate and over 10% pressure rate. And you don’t need stats if you just watch him to see how absolutely dominant he is and how much better he makes the line around him (Milt made way more money because of Jalen).
| Jalen Carter | Chris Jones | Christian Wilkins | Milton Williams | Nnamdi Madubuike | Alim McNeill | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Snap Count | 1067 (1st) | 930 | 246 | 653 | 894 | 631 |
| Pressure Rate | 10.5% (3rd) | 13.7% | 6.0% | 12.9% | 9.8% | 10.3% |
| Pass Rush Win Rate | 12.9% (4th) | 18.8% | 9.1% | 17.6% | 10.5% | 14.5% |
| Sacks | 7 (3rd-T) | 7 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 4 |
| Hits | 16 (2nd) | 19 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 3 |
| Hurries | 52 (2nd) | 62 | 4 | 39 | 41 | 38 |
| Batted Passes | 7 (1st) | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Forced Fumbles | 3 (1st) | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Run Stop Rate | 7.2% (3rd) | 6.5% | 8.2% | 3.5% | 8.0% | 6.8% |
| Tackles for Loss | 8 (1st) | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 4 |
Projecting Carter’s extension
While you can argue Jones may be the better player right now, what I don’t think you can argue is who will be the more valuable contract. Carter is going to sign his extension at age 25 (including his 5th year option), five full years ahead of Chris Jones’ massive deal.
Contract prices go up with the salary cap which has been increasing around 8-9% a year. But when you look at DT contracts, they’ve risen even faster as the league’s new premium position, averaging 12.5% per year over the past decade and 24% since coming out of Covid.
If you take Jones’ deal and grow it by the overall 8.5% cap growth rate, that deal grows to $37.38M in 2026 just based on cap growth. If you use the higher 12.5% growth rate of the top DT contracts, the deal inflates to just over $40M.
| 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% contract growth | $31.75M | $34.45M | $37.38M | $40.55M |
| 12.5% contract growth | $31.75M | $35.72M | $40.18M | $45.21M |
If you agree Chris Jones is Jalen’s comp and adjust it for cap and contract growth, you get to a $37.4-40.2M range. And that gives Carter no credit for being 5 years younger and still ascending.
What his deal could look like
Jalen’s deal will be interesting as there are a few things working in both his and the team’s favors:
- There aren’t a lot of other big DT contracts coming due when Carter is likely to sign, unlike the DeVonta situation – typically this helps the team but I’m not sure this time as Jalen will be alone as the jewel of that DT free agent class
- Howie will surely try to extend him early, giving him significant guaranteed money with 2 years of control left which helps the team
- And as I’ve said many times, DT prices have been going up faster than any other position as the new premium position – at some point this will slow down but when?
Here’s how I think his deal could be structured:
5th year option: $22-27M
The Eagles can negotiate an extension before the 2026 season and will surely pick up Carter’s 5th year option. Playing time and Pro Bowl appearances affect 5th year option amounts, with more than one Pro Bowl qualifying for the top tier, one Pro Bowl for the second tier, and playing time stats for following tiers.
Carter has already made one Pro Bowl so the question is only if he makes a second Pro Bowl this upcoming year and qualifies for the top tier or stays in the second.
5th year option levels, like free agency contracts, have been growing at the same rate as the cap, increasing 8.7% per year for DTs. With this growth, Carter’s 5th year option is going to be somewhere between $22-27M depending if he gets another Pro Bowl or not. For this, I’m going to assume Carter makes a second Pro Bowl.
Contract extension: 3-year $126M with $85M guaranteed
If anything, I wonder if a $42M AAV on Carter’s new year is going to be low, hitting something near $45M. Milton Williams started this off-season projected at $15-18M, I knew he was going for more and had him at $22-24M, above anything I saw out there, and I was STILL low.
Contract, cash, and cap structure
I won’t be completely right on this, but Howie’s deals all get structured similar to this:
- Roughly 60% fully guaranteed on a 3-year deal, effectively making it guaranteed in 2028-29 and an “out” prior to the 2030 season
- Maximum allowed 4 void years, allowing Howie to push around 40% of the cap hits out beyond the contract
- Signing bonus around 20% of the total deal ($30M)
- Minimum annual salaries (between $1.0-1.5M)
- Annual option bonuses between $38-40M with 2028 and 2029 options fully guaranteed and 2030 non-guaranteed
To give a comparison, below is DeVonta’s extension with his 5th year option exercised, showing how much actual cash he was paid vs. the cap hits over the total 4-year extension (5th year plus 3 new years):
A similar structure for Jalen Carter would look something like the following (while there will be 4 void years, I have just rolled all dead cap into the single 2031 season for simplicity):
| 2026 (rookie) | 2027 (5th yr) | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 (voids) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current deal money | $7M | |||||
| 5th year option AAV | $27M | |||||
| Extension AAV | $42M | $42M | $42M | |||
| Cash paid | $32M | $21M | $33M | $33M | $34M | |
| Cap hit distribution | $13M | $12M | $17M | $23M | $32M | $56M |
Again this won’t be right but if he signs for somewhere in the $40-45M per year range, Howie will structure the deal as he does all his deals and it plays out like the above. And it’s an incredible deal and very affordable.
Still not convinced?
Carter’s $40M deal actually isn’t that expensive vs. the cap and it isn’t out of line for what Howie has given out to his other top-of-the-league guys at premium positions.
Below are how Carter compares to other top Eagles contracts in their prime contract years as a percentage of the overall cap:
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Carter (2028-29) | 4.7% | 6.0% | 7.6% |
| AJ Brown (2025-27) | 6.1% | 7.9% | 7.3% |
| Fletcher Cox (2019-21) | 6.0% | 7.7% | 7.3% |
| Jordan Mailata (2025-27) | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.9% |
| Lane Johnson (2023-25) | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.0% |
| Jason Peters (2013-15) | 7.6% | 5.5% | 5.7% |
The dollar amount doesn’t matter, it’s how it compares against the total cap. And with the cap projected to grow around 8.5% per year putting it at almost $390M in 2029, Carter’s $42M mega-deal is up there with but isn’t out of line with past top Eagles players. Fletch and AJ both have/had bigger percent-of-cap hits than what Carter would.
Get comfortable with Carter’s annual deal starting with a “4”. And love it, because it will be a great deal and very affordable for a guy that probably will be the best in the league at his position.
That’s a great graph of cash paid vs cap hit!
Thanks, yes it really is helpful to visualize it and there is such a difference. The way the Eagles operate, the player gets their money sooner (signing bonus) but they don’t have to give all of it in a signing bonus by using annual option bonuses, and the Eagles push their cap out.
Great breakdown and really shows the owners dedication to winning because all these signing bonuses and guaranteed contracts could be done without his desire to win.
Ya know, I should have made that point. Howie gets the credit and he deserves it, but he can only do it because Lurie is willing to put out a ton of money. Other owners don’t… some GMs probably would love to use Howie’s cap strategies but they can’t. Great point, thanks so much.
Greg – as an Eagles fan, football die hard and believer in statistical analysis, I would like to offer my sincere THANKS for this site. You provide the economics and advanced stats of the game in such an easily digestible way, that truly helps readers understand the hidden but critical aspects of building and maintaining our beloved team. Please keep posting!
Thanks so much for the comment. And if anything you ever want to see or have suggestions let me know
I’ve been wanting to see a breakdown like this, thanks! I’m not a fan of billionaires, but Philly should be eternally grateful for Lurie. To do contracts like this he needs to front the cash in an escrow account. Not every owner is willing to do that
Absolutely correct, Howie can only do what he does because of Lurie. Other GMs don’t have the same ability.
Where did you get 4 years maximum void years? I thought you could use as many as you want? I think Jalen has void years out to 2035
NFL contract rules are max void years are 5 minus the number of remaining years on the contract, so effectively 4. I am guessing you are looking at OverTheCap which shows Hurts out to 2035 which isn’t right (and I hate saying OTC isn’t right as there isn’t anybody better at it, it’s just more of how it is shown). Spotrac will show Hurts as having void years from 2029-2032 which is correct. And OTC actually syncs if you look at the option bonuses which only spread out to 2032 (the only thing he has beyond 2032 are dummy $99M salaries)
Thanks for the question
SO my understanding is you can only prorate bonus money, over a 5 year span, but that the number of void years is unlimited. Guess i had that wrong.
Also even then the number of years Jalens contract is spread over is BEYOND the 5 year rule. However, I was under the impression this was due to an atuomatic extension clause in is contract (I think the only player with one) like his original contract ended 2023, 5 year rule would bring us through 2028, he has money assigned all the way out to 2032, beyond the 5 years rule of how long bonus money can be spread over.
How do you decide whether spotrac or OTC are right in these matters BTW?
Great work btw!
Yes, it’s confusing. Contracts can be longer, but bonuses (which is how money is pushed into the future) are limited to max of 5 years. The specific CBA language is here:
Signing Bonuses.
(i) Proration. The total amount of any signing bonus shall be prorated over the term of the Player Contract (on a straight-line basis, unless subject to acceleration or some other treatment as provided in this Agreement), with a maximum proration of five years, in determining Team Salary and Salary
On OTC vs. Spotrac, it’s tough, I kinda use both. Nobody is better than OTC but Spotrac is also very good. I generally like to use the History tab on OTC which does a better job showing the cash vs. cap by year as well as past deals. Spotrac does a better job listing out the contract structure which helps for Howie deals as Howie primarily uses annual option bonuses (not signing bonuses) which help them get around the Deion Rule (prevents too much from being put into bonuses and accelerates back that cap)… option bonuses don’t come into effect until sometime when the new league year starts, can be guaranteed or not, and then get pro-rated out which you can’t do with an initial signing bonus, plus when they are not guaranteed the team can avoid paying it unlike the signing bonus which is gone.
The options bonuses also allow them to get around the 5 year rule. I believe for instance if you have an option bonus due in year 3, you can spread it over that year and four more years. So when you have those void years, its a way to continue to spread out those future option years.
It seems to me the eagles dont give out more cash to each player, they just have more players with gaurantee money than other teams (especially since i think all guaranteed money needs to be escrowed… they should change that rule btw)
I also like the cash flow comparisons, bc it seems like they give jalen like more money in cash per year than burrow, burrow just has larger baloon payments at the end to up the average yearly value….
Thanks for the tip, ill have to look into spotrac more
Yep you are absolutely right on the option bonuses and years. Thanks again for the comments, I enjoy the discussion
Greg,
Big fan of the site I was looking for deep dives on the cap like this and then stumbled upon this and have been constantly checking for more stories. I do have a question about the signing bonuses. In this article you show that Howie typically does 20% of the total deal as a signing bonus. Is there a limit to how much % of the deal that they can put as a signing bonus? Obviously understand that they have to be willing to pay the money upfront, but curious to see if there is a limit for it.
It’s interesting, I should probably do a piece on this as it is hard to explain here. But teams can only put so much into a signing bonus – if you heard of the “Deion Rule”, the NFL limits how much of the total contract you can put in a signing bonus (pro-rated bonus cannot be more than the players salary+roster bonus during the initial contract term). So, what Howie does is (1) give near league min salaries, (2) give a decent signing bonus that doesn’t break the Deion Rule (3) add in an annual option bonus which is usually guaranteed for the first two years and then non-guaranteed. These option bonuses don’t kick in until the start (or some defined date) of the new league year and he can pro-rate those out just like a signing bonus… but they don’t get him in trouble on the Deion Rule.
Also, the option bonuses allow them to not pay it all up front. The Eagles do pay more money out sooner than most teams – when you look at future cash (not cap), the Eagles are always high on the list if not the top.
Oh, and thanks so much for the compliment and idea – I will try to do a piece on this.