A look at this EDGE draft class: Who I like and why the Eagles shouldn’t force a pick

It’s a bit rare to have such consensus on the Eagles top pick, but EDGE has remained the wire-to-wire leader this year so far. The guys have shifted as the big boards moves, but it’s been an EDGE in R1 the entire year.

• Mock draft aggregator NFLMockDraftDatabase currently has the Eagles taking BC EDGE Donovan Ezeiruaku
• Tankathon has them taking Ohio State’s Jack Sawyer
• PFF has Ezeiruaku and Nic Scourton as the top two most frequently made picks

And it makes sense. Howie invests on the lines, the Eagles are likely losing two EDGEs, and the depth chart is Nolan Smith, Jalyx Hunt, and a disappointing Bryce Huff. That’s it.

They are most definitely drafting an EDGE. But where?

This is going to be a very unpopular view in Philly, but the more and more I look at this class, the more I think we need to pump the breaks on an EDGE being taken high. Here’s why.

EDGEs are heavily drafted…

Over the past 10 years:

• On average, pretty consistently right around 5 EDGEs are taken in R1 (2021 had 8, 2018 and 2020 had 2, but most years are between 4-6)
• Another 4 are taken in R2 and, again, this has been pretty consistent
• And another 5 EDGEs typically go in R3
• On day 3 the draft averages 3-4 each round, totaling somewhere around 14-15 EDGEs on day 3

…but they have one of the lowest hit rates

Over the 2014-2023 period (I’m excluding the 2024 draft because player value data isn’t fair or reliable after only a rookie season):

• EDGE has the 4th worst hit rate in R1 at 55%, behind CB, SAF, and TE
• 2 league average or worse EDGEs are taken in R1, with at least 1 total draft miss almost every year
• On day 2 of the draft the hit rate is 16%, second worst ahead of only TE with its 10% hit rate
• Bust rates are high on day 2, averaging 6 misses per draft

To put these numbers in context, of the nearly 5 EDGEs drafted every year in R1, only 1.7 of them are above average pros. On day 2, the draft averages only 1.5 above average pros out of the almost 10 taken and 6 EDGEs would be considered total misses.

When you look at the 14-15 EDGEs that get drafted in the first three rounds, just think that history tells us most likely only 4 of them will be above average pros.

This year again right around 16-17 EDGEs are projected in the top 3 rounds. Who are the likely 4 above average pros… and who are the guys everybody loves that will be this year’s misses?

College production doesn’t guarantee, but is predictive, of NFL success

I wrote on projecting EDGEs to the pros here and always have to caveat this – you cannot, and I do not, look solely at stats to scout guys. However, college production does have a strong correlation to pro success:

Top college producers (pressure rates above 17%) have twice the hit rates as guys below that mark. And poor college producers (below 14% pressure rates) almost never hit, with only 1 in 8 being good pros. The problem is there just aren’t many of these top production guys, typically only 3-6 of them in any year.

This year is on the lighter side with only 4 guys projected in the top 100 that have an above 17% pressure rate. And there are 9 guys that should be viewed with a ton of risk with below 14% college pressure rates.

Does low college production mean guys will be misses? No. Does it mean there’s risk with the pick? Absolutely.

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I’ve watched more EDGE film than almost any other position because it is such a likely pick for the Eagles, including re-watching a bunch of guys again over the past week.

I continue to think that this EDGE class is going to be an average EDGE class, with a couple of really good prospects at the top and more risk than many are giving it lower.

And the Eagles forcing an EDGE pick, especially at the end of the 1st round, is most likely NOT going to be where the value is in the draft.

Remember, when you look at these classes, think “there are likely only 4-5 above average pros… who are they?”

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The “sure things”…

Nobody is a sure thing, but to me there are two clear guys you take high and feel great about. Both are only 21 years old, both are explosive, and both have film against really good competition which matters a ton to me.

His 35% pass rush win rate is up there with the best EDGEs in recent years. He’s got versatility few in this class do, playing quite a bit of LB, dropping into coverage, and add in his 15% run stop rate and he’s one of the few guys good against both the pass and run. He’ll be long-gone by the Eagles pick.

He’s a bit all over with some dropping him lower which I don’t get or agree with. He’s constantly disruptive, has an elite 22% pressure rate in back-to-back seasons, is a good tackler, and is incredibly consistent game-to-game. If he fell anywhere near the Eagles, he’s one of the few guys I would trade up to get.

The guys with a “but”…

These are popular guys to many but have some off-field questions that are so hard for us to know and I hate even talking about it. But teams will know and it’s real. The Eagles have shown they avoid players without the work ethic or potentially serious issues in their past.

With an 18% pressure rate, he’s another disruptive pass rusher who is always moving forward and has multiple productive seasons in the SEC. The “but” on him is off-field stuff… he had the altercation with a fan after the Florida game and there’s noise about his work ethic. Add in that he’ll be 23 years old and isn’t great in coverage and these may be knockouts for the Eagles.

I just re-watched him as he’s one I’m lower on than most. His stats are good but it’s a different story when he’s played against future NFLers. I’m weighting the 2024 Ohio State film heavily for that reason – he was pushed out of the play way too often and while I believe he can play the run, he isn’t great at it right now. Add in that he was removed from the UVA football team and if the unconfirmed allegations are true, he’s off a lot of teams’ boards, including mine.

Guys I like for the Eagles

Two guys I like for the as fits for what the Eagles look – explosive and good athletes, an ability to drop into coverage, and capable in run defense.

If you follow me at all, you’ll know I love Josaiah. He’s short at not quite 6’1″ which will take him off many teams’ boards, but he doesn’t play small. Incredible power and a silly 41% true pass-set win rate, misses few tackles, underrated run defense, and plus coverage value. He’s Nolan Smith-lite without the bend, which is my only concern. When looking at what profile Vic Fangio teams have drafted at EDGE, he’s the best fit in this class not named Abdul Carter. I’m finding a way to leave this draft with him. Period.

He’s here because he’s projected late 3rd round, although I think he goes higher come the draft. I’d take Bradyn over Scourton or Ezeiruaku seven days a week. Not a perfect prospect, but he’s shown multiple years of production with a 17% pressure rate and a good 34% pass rush win rate which puts him up with the top pass rushers the last several drafts. He can get better setting the edge, although it seems technique and not traits.

Guys I like but may not be fits

One thing that is great about Vic is he uses the skills that he has, even if it doesn’t fit his prototypical guy (Brandon Graham is an example), so I could be very wrong that these guys may not be fits for the Eagles. But they are guys I like and think could do well, just probably a different team.

A guy where I differ from the stats, which just aren’t there (10% pressure rate). He’s physically impressive, has a couple of “how the &#% did he do that” plays a game, and not sure I’ve seen somebody so often so close to making a play without making one. He’s definitely a high-variance pick that could hit or bust.

A guy I struggled with as there is a lot to like. He’s a very good run defender which many undervalue and something the Eagles will want. But he isn’t overly explosive and bigger than the Eagles typically draft.

A run through the rest of the top 100 pass rushers

I really like him and I’d draft him, I’m just not sure if you’re taking him as an EDGE or hybrid LB. There’s just so little film on him as a true EDGE – against Texas and Alabama, he only had a handful of true EDGE alignments and a lot of his stats came as a LB. But so often, he was just the best player on the field for UGA.

I’ve watched him several times and just don’t see what others do. His production is bad and some say “that’s just UGA”, but unlike guys like Nolan Smith, he’s just not consistently impactful. As an example, vs. Texas he logged 4 pressures and 2 sacks but they all came when he was unblocked or Arch held the ball for 3+ seconds – his zero pass rush wins (beating a block in 2;5 seconds) is reflective of the film. His best game against Florida St in the 2023 Bowl Game where he had 6 pressures and 2 sacks? Again, all either unblocked or where the QB held the ball too long – zero pass rush “wins”. He just doesn’t consistently move blockers nor show an ability to bend around them.

A guy I am nowhere near as high on. He’s not a fit for the Eagles, lacks versatility, explosiveness, and for his size, he disappointed against the run. His 11% pressure rate is one of the lower in this class.

The guy that makes the most of what he has which is to be appreciated and I view him as a solid floor, lower-ceiling guy. But the Eagles rarely draft guys who aren’t top-tier athletes. He could be very good in the league, I just don’t see him as the best fit and value early R2 for the Eagles.

Another popular Eagles pick just because he’s typically one of the top-ranked EDGEs available at their pick, but he’s a guy that lacks explosiveness and suffers in setting the edge, two things the Eagles will always look for.

Another high-variance pick in my opinion. Lot to like, he’s solid against the run, but he lacks bend and flexibility, doesn’t do well in space, and his production as a pass rusher just isn’t consistently there.

At almost 6’6″ and 283 pounds, not sure he isn’t better at DT. He’ll turn 24 during his rookie season, lacks production with an 11% pressure rate. He won’t be a fit for the Eagles.

Will also turn 24 this season and only really produced in 2024, his 5th college season – you can wonder if his 2024 jump was because he was on a very good DL. Underlying production stats of an 11% pass rush win rate are concerning, especially given he’s not a great run defender. Not a guy I would take to the Eagles.

Good athlete, but yet another that will be 24 during his rookie season and a late breakout guy which has been a big risk for past guys. At nearly 300 pounds, he’s not the type of EDGE Vic has typically wanted. His 14% pressure rate is ok, but he hasn’t shown his best games against good competition.

A bigger EDGE at nearly 270 pounds, he’s solid in many ways but not remarkable in any. He isn’t explosive and generally wins with power. Had no success against Joe Alt in 2023. He’ll be decent value here and a fit for some teams, but not the Eagles.

Day 3 guys to know

Day 3 hit rates are really low but there will be guys worth taking. I’m only going to pick a couple of interesting and versatile EDGEs that could fit what the Eagles want, and not run through everybody.

I have to credit PhillyWannaBGM for pointing him out as an Eagles fit. Femi was a LB until getting moved to EDGE week 4 this season. Given his background, he’s got a lot of versatility and covers and tackles well. At pass rush, if you look at him later in the season there’s a big difference – in his last 5 games he had 19 pressures on 123 pass rushes (15% pressure rate) and a 16% win rate with good games against Nebraska and Iowa, two decent pass blocking teams. In the Senior Bowl, he had 4 pressures and 2 sacks on only 23 pass rush reps. Add in that he is known as a leader, and he should be interesting to the Eagles on late day 2 or early day 3.

He got worked out at LB at the Senior Bowl given a lot of teams project him there, but I would keep him at EDGE – he can look lost as a LB at times given lack of experience there. What’s interesting is he chose App State and then Auburn because they committed to him as an EDGE. He’s always around the ball – he plays in the SEC and recorded tackles on 16% of run defense snaps (best in this class), had 2 forced fumbles and 7 sacks. If you want to see fun, watch his highlights against Texas A&M, Alabama, and Oklahoma.

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To wrap it up, knowing the historical hit rates and what typically drives success, I’ll give my answer to a couple of questions:

“Who do you think are this year’s 4-5 hits in the draft across both days 1 and 2?”

• Day 1 guys: Abdul Carter, James Pearce, Jalon Walker (* hybrid LB/EDGE)
• Day 2 guys: Josaiah Stewart, Bradyn Swinson

“Who would I target for the Eagles (based on who will actually be available at their picks)?”

• R1-32: Unless a guy like Pearce falls, I don’t see an EDGE worth picking here
• R2: Josaiah Stewart
• R3: Bradyn Swinson
• Day 3 / UDFA: Femi Oladejo, Jalen McLeod

While EDGE is the consensus pick, the Eagles don’t need to, nor should they, force a pick in the 1st round. Vic Fangio has historically taken smaller EDGEs that have coverage experience and can be counted on to set an EDGE. Hopefully you see that some of the better options don’t even need to be taken high.

I may differ from most on the quality of this EDGE class and will definitely differ on several prospects, but that’s what makes this fun. And hopefully, the hit rates above show you even in good classes, the number of draft misses at EDGE is high. If you differ, feel free to let me know in the comments.

Thanks for reading and Go Birds.