Projecting DTs to the NFL and a look at the 2025 draft class

I wrote a similar look into the 2025 EDGE draft class here and now will do the same for the defensive tackles. And, I will make the same caveat up front – I don’t believe in solely looking at stats for players, you have to watch the film. But college production does matter and it helps surface risk on prospects.

What good pro DTs have in common

If you look at the top DTs in the NFL today, in college they pretty much all were:

• Good pass rushers (pass rush win rates around 20% or above)
• Good run defenders (run stop rates at 11% or above)
• Or both

Just like EDGEs, having high pass rush or run stop rates doesn’t guarantee success in the NFL, but showing production in college certainly helps.

Below shows DTs over the past 5 drafts with their run stop rates on the x-axis and pass rush win rates on the y-axis. NFL DTs drafted over the last 5 drafts are in grey and this year’s top projected DTs are in blue to show how they compare. For DTs in the NFL, their circle size shows their player value, with larger circles being better DTs.

When you look at where the top DTs over the past 5 drafts have come from, you see:

• 7 of the top 10 DTs had pass rush win rates over 20% (these are picks like Jalen Carter, Nnamdi Madubuike, and Derrick Brown)
• 9 of the top 10 had run stop rates over 11% (guys like Kobie Turner, Keeanu Benton, T’Vondre Sweat, and Jordan Davis show up here)
• Only 2 failed to hit either threshold in college (Alim McNeil and Gervon Dexter)

While it’s not super common to find guys that produce at a high level as both pass rushers and run defenders, draft hit rates are almost 80% when DTs produce at both. And unsurprisingly, when DTs don’t show college production at either, draft hit rates are poor at just 25%.

A look at the 2025 DT draft class

DT prices have been rising fast in free agency, last year passing EDGEs which most people don’t realize. This trend likely continues this off-season for two reasons:

• Three young, top DTs are hitting the market in Milton Williams, Osa Odighizuwa, and Levi Onwuzurike
• It’s a copycat league and the Eagles DL showed in dismantling the Chiefs what a difference they can make to not only the pass rush but the coverage

But if you need an interior defender, it’s a great year in the draft with both strength at the top and amazing depth. Below are the top DTs with their college pass rush win rates for true pass sets and run stop rates and sorted by their current expected draft position (EDP):

EDP	Player	School	Pass Rush Win Rate	Run Stop Rate
5	Mason Graham	Michigan	21.7%	14.3%
22	Walter Nolen	Ole Miss	19.5%	14.3%
25	Kenneth Grant	Michigan	14.3%	10.1%
34	Derrick Harmon	Oregon	26.9%	10.3%
38	Tyleik Williams	Ohio St	10.0%	8.8%
53	Deone Walker	Kentucky	14.7%	7.3%
61	Alfred Collins	Texas	14.3%	9.4%
62	TJ Sanders	South Carolina	21.2%	11.3%
67	Darius Alexander	Toledo	22.6%	9.2%
70	Omarr Norman-Lott	Tennessee	30.8%	10.5%
75	Shemar Turner	Texas A&M	5.9%	8.8%
100	Jordan Phillips	Maryland	16.7%	7.5%
102	Joshua Farmer	Florida St	17.4%	6.6%
117	Aeneas Peebles	Virginia Tech	27.3%	9.0%
127	JJ Pegues	Ole Miss	19.6%	11.3%
128	Ty Robinson	Nebraska	13.4%	11.7%
148	CJ West	Indiana	12.8%	12.4%
157	Rylie Mills	Notre Dame	18.9%	8.5%
184	Simeon Barrow	Miami	14.8%	12.3%
187	Cam Jackson	Florida	8.6%	10.8%
190	Howard Cross	Notre Dame	14.4%	7.1%
238	Jamaree Caldwell	Oregon	17.7%	8.6%
261	Thor Griffith	Louisville	17.7%	11.7%

I’m even more bullish than consensus with 5 DTs graded as 1st round guys. Come April 24th, I think we will see the league go harder after DTs than consensus has right now.

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The top-end

These are the “rare air” guys above that have produced both rushing the passer and stopping the run. You are hoping they are cornerstones of your line and on the field all the time. There are two really great options this year and guys the Eagles will have no shot at

Mason Graham and Walter Nolen are the two in this class at the top for good reasons. Both are disruptive pass rushers, can handle double-teams, and show value against both the run and pass. These are the guys I said above that you don’t see come around often.

Many boards and mocks have Nolen near the end of the 1st round or early 2nd which I don’t believe at all. The only reason he drops is if there is some concern on character as he had some recruiting and school issues in his past.

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The underrated (also, my Eagles targets)

If you are drafting an Eagles linemen, they better be explosive, test well, and have produced on the field against good competition. Add in character and leadership and you have your draft targets.

TJ Sanders is a guy I have liked for a while and am much higher on than consensus, having him as DT4 and in R1. Only 21 years old, 6’3 3/4″ and 284 pounds with 33 5/8″ arms, he’s explosive and going to test really well. Playing in the SEC, over the past two seasons he has good film against teams like UGA, Clemson, Kentucky, and Texas A&M.

TJ speaks openly on his pride in stopping the run which I love. He’s powerful for his size and is second in this class in his pass rush productivity (hits, hurries, sacks) behind only Omarr Norman-Lott. He reminds me a lot of Osa Odigizuwa with his size, style, and ability to shoot gaps, but is a much better tackler and run defender.

I’m not sure why he isn’t solidly in round 1. Since he’s my top guy for the Eagles, here are some clips to show why I like him:

Derrick Harmon is showing up more and more in 1st round mocks so may graduate from the “underrated” list before the draft. Another powerful and disruptive DT that can play all 3 downs. He is a bit more up-and-down on film and needs to clean up tackling. I have him behind Sanders at DT5.

Darius Alexander is a popular guy for Eagles fans after drafting Toledo teammate Quinyon last year. I noticed him first against my alma mater Pitt this year where he seemed to be constantly in the backfield with a sack, hit, couple of hurries, and several good run stops. Add in that he’s a trash talker on the field, and he could fill BG’s role…

And lastly, Nolen’s Ole Miss linemate JJ Pegues is a guy that I think is going to outperform his draft slot. If you want athletic traits, there may not be a better DT in this class – he’s 6’2″ 323 and as an ex-TE, his movement pops right away. He has recorded one of the fastest get-off times in this class and produced at a high level this year – his 0.2 yard average depth of tackle is best in this class. A team captain and member of the SEC Football Leadership Council, he brings the intangibles the Eagles often look for.

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The run-stoppers

If you are a team that needs primarily a gap-consuming run stopper, and there should be more interest than usual this year with the shift back towards running, there are several guys.

Kenneth Grant should be the top guy this year if you need it. At 6’3″ and 339 pounds, he will consumes doubles and has really great film against good teams. I could see him go as high as the 49ers or Cowboys who both need to get better stopping the run if they want to compete in the NFC. And if he’s there late and I’m the Bills or Chiefs, I take him.

If you look at the chart above, Alfred Collins is one of the guys that fails to cross either threshold but he’s a guy I would bet on if you needed a day 2 run defender. Lot of guys fail on film when you see them against double teams… Collins does not. Just know what you are getting as his pass rush upside is limited.

Jamaree Caldwell is a guy that shows how deep this class is, projected late day 3 right now. At 6’2″, 342 pounds, he’s got surprising burst, enough that Houston played him on the EDGE and one of the only guys that gave Grey Zabel trouble at the Senior Bowl. If you need a two-gapping DT, I’m not sure there’s a better value in this class.

A few other guys fall in this run-stopping category but I’m not as high on for various reasons, especially where they are projected to get taken. Ohio State’s Tyleik Williams has lots of flashes but I thought had too much trouble consistently disengaging from blocks. Deone Walker is massive but it works against him – against UGA he was consistently pushed backwards by their interior.

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The potential values

Omarr Norman-Lott is a really popular pick and I like him a lot, but there’s always guys whose stats get overvalued – I see a lot of people talking about his 30% pass rush win rate but you have to remember, his sample size is really small, averaging only 17 snaps a game. There’s a lot to like – he’s explosive and holds up on doubles but could be better shedding and finishing tackles. He reminds me a bit of Keeanu Benton but given how little he played, there’s some risk and projection. If he drops to late day 2, he could be good value.

Virginia Tech is my second college team and watching Aeneas Peebles this year, I’m not sure I saw a game where he wasn’t disruptive. Projected early day 3, he is one of the fastest – if not the fastest – off the snap in this class and generates immediate pressure. He’ll be 24 at the start of the 2025 season which is a negative.

Rylie Mills is a guy seldom talked about and with his season-ending injury, probably falls. He’s athletic but not sudden. He’s strong and never gives up on a play, lot of film of him tracking ball carriers down in space. He’s consistently produced for several years now at Notre Dame and will be a solid day 3 value.

An all-time lineman name, Harvard transfer and Louisville standout Thor Griffith is buried deep in the draft. He’s short at 6’2″ but 320 pounds, he is one of the best athletes in this class. Bruce Feldman included him on his Freaks List and look at these numbers for his size: 4.95 40, 1.65 second 10-yard, and 45 reps on the bench. In the last 10 years, nobody has hit 45 reps on the bench and only four guys have hit 40.