This is the fourth post, and final pick, in what is really my view on positional value, free agency, and the draft with an Eagles 2024 mock draft mixed in. So far, I’ve taken the two most difficult positions to get outside of the draft with my high picks. Then, I turned to a non-premium position that ended up being the best value when it dropped:
Prior picks:
R1-18 (trade-up): CB Nate Wiggins
R2-35 (traded EDGE): WR Xavier Worthy
R2-50: LB Junior Colson
The pick at 53 is interesting. I wrote previously on how draft hit rates drop quicker than most realize – at 53, just over halfway into the 2nd round, expected player value is below the 50th percentile and the chance of a miss (39%) is the same as drafting an above average player (40%).
After getting our future CB1, a dangerous offensive weapon, and a coverage-heavy linebacker, I’ll give a few options that make sense from a value perspective and let you decide.
TE Ben Sinnott:
Drafting an underrated TE ahead of a need
So far, only Brock Bowers is projected to have been taken and most will have Ja’Tavion Sanders as TE2, but I’m going rogue and taking Sinnott.
Most people push TEs down in the draft because they are notoriously tough to draft and historically slow to develop. And it’s true, there’s a ton of variability – since 2015, when teams are picking TE2 or TE3, they miss over half the time, worst of any position. And in this mid-2nd round range, TE has the lowest expected draft value of any position.
But when I watch Sinnott’s film and look at everything that points to a good pro, he stands out.
His athleticism is rarely seen and shared by the top TEs in the league
No testing is a guarantee, but the most important tests for TEs have been shown to be the vertical, 3-cone, 10-yard split. TE draft hits are almost always very strong here and misses are the ones that fail to clear the athletic profile needed.
And Sinnott shines athletically, better than every top TE in the vertical and better than all but George Kittle in the 3-cone.
| Top NFL TEs Avg | Ben Sinnott | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-cone | 7.06 | 6.82 |
| 10-yard | 1.59 | 1.59 |
| Vertical | 34.3 | 40.0 |
And he does it all:
- His 29% missed tackle rate is one of the best over the past 5 drafts and is in really good company – Brock Bowers, Sam LaPorta, Jaheim Bell, and Isaiah Likely are the only guys ahead of him.
- He clears the important 2.0 yard per route run metric – only Brock and Cade Stover are also above it in this class.
- He’s the top graded blocking TE in this class.
- He’s the top graded deep receiving TE in this class.
- Versatility, lining up in the backfield, slot, and inline, he led Kansas St in receiving yards in 2023.
I honestly don’t see how Ben Sinnott isn’t the TE2 in this class.
OT Kiran Amegadjie:
Restocking the OL with a lab-built but raw tackle
I’ve written why I think using a 1st round pick on Lane’s replacement isn’t a good use of draft capital, and it’s the most push back I’ve ever gotten on a take. But here in round 2, it’s a different story. Here’s why I like Kiran Amegadjie and why it now makes sense:
- The Eagles need to replenish the offensive line, especially somebody that can serve as a swing tackle after Jack Driscoll’s departure.
- Tackle has one of the top hit rates in the middle of the 2nd round, 3rd best of all positions with an expected 58th percentile player value.
- Kiran could have been built in a lab at 6’5″ and 326 pounds with 36 inch arms and his basketball background shows with his footwork.
- The reasons for him to drop are explainable – lower competition at Yale but he dominated there, he had an injury that cut short his senior season, and his issues are more rawness and technique than ability.
Another bonus is the Cowboys have been linked to Kiran. Picking just a few spots after the Eagles pick, it could be extra sweet sniping one of their guys.
EDGE Jonah Elliss:
A young defender with NFL bloodlines
If I told you I was drafting a defender with NFL bloodlines and an Eagles connection, you’d guess Jeremiah Trotter Jr. But no, I’m looking to Utah’s Jonah Elliss, son of Pro Bowler Luther Elliss and brother to both the Falcons Kaden Elliss and ex-Eagle Christian Elliss.
Through the whole draft cycle, I’ve thought pass rusher was their most likely first pick, but between signing Bryce Huff and having Verse, Turner, and Latu all gone by their first pick, I haven’t taken one yet. But it’s still a need and Elliss could be interesting, especially given his upside:
- One of the only younger EDGE prospects, he won’t turn 21 until next week.
- Doesn’t have elite pressure rates at 12%, but showed great growth in 2023 and has continued upside with pass rush development and his age.
- Finishes well with 13 sacks (3.9% sack rate) and double-digit sacks in 6 games.
Pass rusher is really top heavy this year and it’s historically not a great position to take here, with the second worst hit rate here in the 2nd round, ahead of only TE. Looking back, there are some great finds like small school Alex Highsmith or Anfernee Jennings who suffered a terrible knee injury pre-draft.
And maybe Jonah, coming from Utah and who has no pre-draft workouts due to a shoulder injury, can do the same.
SAF Javon Bullard:
Adding another versatile piece to the secondary
We signed CJGJ but is Reed Blankenship enough where we can’t still improve the position? With Javon Bullard, you are getting another highly flexible guy that can play deep safety and slot.
- His 17% PBU rate is 2nd in this class behind only ball-hawking freak Tyler Nubin.
- Highest graded slot defender in this class, allowing a 24.5 passer rating with 7 receptions on 18 targets for only 57 total yards.
- Comps have been made to CJGJ with his versatility, attitude, and ball skills.
- Ability to mirror routes with very good anticipation.
Who’s your pick at 53…?
We’ve hopefully already taken our future CB1, another weapon at receiver, and solidified linebacker… and now, should we:
- Take our future TE and a guy that may be an asset under the league’s new kickoff structure?
- Try to grab Lane’s future replacement and a guy that can fill in at swing tackle and guard in the interim?
- Continue to invest in pass rush, knowing that both Reddick and Sweat’s time is limited?
- Or add another versatile piece to secondary?
My choice? I’m going with Ben Sinnott for two reasons. Just like taking LB with the last pick, TE is lightly drafted and I think Sinnott is the best player of my choices here. And second, I think it’s a smart, long-term pick for the Eagles as Goedert could be gone as soon as 2025, always misses 3-4 games, and the Eagles offense doesn’t have a good alternative.
And if you don’t like any of these options, let me know in the comments.
Thanks for reading.