I wanted to try something different here, just as an interesting exercise.
I’ve written in the past on how accurate big boards are, where the best players come from in the draft, and 1st round positional hit rates so I wanted to do a full 2024 1st round mock based on some of these historical trends.
Everybody is looking at the same big boards, has the same player rankings, and largely mock the same players in the 1st round but we know that isn’t how the draft turns out. Ever.
Knowing this, what could a 1st round mock look like? Who are players that could end up being this year’s steals?
The mock itself meant to be overly serious as while we know the big boards are wrong, we don’t know which players are wrong. And a lot of data shows that GMs that reach on players thinking they are smarter than the crowd are more often are wrong than right.
What we know about 1st round draft history
Just under 50% of the 1st round turn out to be the top players
Only once since 2015 has the 1st round been more than 50% right (in 2018, it hit 56%), meaning players picked in the 1st turn out to be one of the best 32 players. Drafts average 15 1st rounders (46%) ending up as top players.
An average of just over 13 day two picks (40%) consistently turn out to be top players – 7 from round two and 5 from round three. And another 4-5 top players come from day 3.
Day 2 Examples: QB Jalen Hurts, WRs AJ Brown and Tyler Lockett, DT Chris Jones, OL Creed Humphrey and Joe Thuney, CBs Trevon Diggs and Jaylon Johnson, and LBs Fred Warner and Shaq Leonard
Day 3 Examples: QBs Dak Prescott and Brock Purdy, EDGE Maxx Crosby and Za’Darius Smith, DT Grady Jarrett
The top 10 picks have good hit rates though
Picking in the top 10 is reliable with almost 85% of picks being top 60th percentile, or above average, players since 2015. And of the 14 misses, over a third (5) were of course QBs. After the first ten picks, hit rates start dropping, hitting 60% by the middle of the 1st round and dropping to near 30% by the end of round one.
Almost 40% of 1st rounders are misses
Only 15 1st round picks turn out to be top 32 players. But worse than that, every year, almost the same number (12 picks or 37%) fail to even turn out to be top 50 players which is typically the cutoff of starter to non-starters. Some of these are due to injury, some exit the league for off-field issues, some are reaches trying to find the ever elusive franchise QB, and many are just players that don’t succeed.
Examples: QBs Zach Wilson and Trey Lance, CBs Jeff Okudah and Damon Arnette, OT Mekhi Becton, WR Henry Ruggs
The least “chalky” positions are CB, WR, and LB
By “least chalky” I mean the first drafted players don’t end up being the best players. And CB, WR, and LB have the lowest hit rates. Since 2015, less than half the time has the first WR, CB, or LB drafted ended up as one of the top three players at their position.
This year Marvin Harrison Jr, Terrion Arnold, and Edgerrin Cooper are the consensus top guys at each position… could Malik Nabers or Rome be better pros? Nate Wiggins or Quinyon Mitchell at CB? Or Payton Wilson, Junior Colson, or a surprise further down like Marist Liufau at LB?
On the other end, EDGE and OT are really reliable – for both, 7 of 9 times the top player taken ended up as a top 3 player at their position.
Pre-draft QB rankings rarely pick the right guy
Remember some of these when picking your QB this year. Since 2015 (the past nine drafts):
- Only three times has the consensus top pre-draft QB actually turned out to be the best QB in that class – Jameis in 2015, Kyler in 2019, and Trevor Lawrence in 2021. You can add Burrow in 2020 although Hurts statistically has been slightly more valuable.
- Only twice has the first QB drafted turned out to be a franchise QB – Kyler in 2019 and Burrow in 2020. Some would add Trevor, if you think he is a franchise QB, fine, add one more, but I think that is still very unproven.
- Of the top 3 QBs taken, only half turned out to be good – for every Burrow, Allen, and Stroud there is a Mariota, Trey Lance, and Sam Darnold
- On average, there are less than 2 good QBs each draft – the 2018 and 2020 drafts were exceptions with 7 good QBs being taken, but every other draft since 2015 has only had 1 or 2 good QBs.
- The top QBs often come from deeper in the draft – people will debate top QB lists but regardless of which you use, you will see a few top picks like Burrow (pick 1), Stafford (1), and Stroud (2) but also Herbert (6), Josh Allen (7), Mahomes (10), Lamar (32), Hurts (53), Dak (55), and of course Purdy (262). It’s early but you could add in Jordan Love (pick 26). Four are guys that 31 teams passed on.
If you want to raise your day three odds, look to WR, OL, and RB
There’s no cheat code to day three, but the positions that have a higher hit rate late are WR, OL, and RB. These three positions make up almost half of the day three hits. Hit rates are still really low – only 18 of 454 (4%) total day three picks at these positions hit, but compared to other positions, these do better. On the other side, good luck trying to find a CB and TE on day three with only 3 out of 251 (1.2%) hitting, the lowest of any position.
Examples: WRs Puka Nacua, Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, Darnell Mooney, OL Shaq Mason, Trey Smith, RBs Tony Pollard, Aaron Jones, Tyler Allgeier
And now the mock…
For this mock, I will:
- Select around half of players currently projected to be outside of round 1
- Set fire to current QB big board rankings
- Trust the top-10 guys (outside of QB)
So let’s go.
The top 10: Chalk and the QBs…
The top 10 guys have been pretty reliable outside of QB, so I will largely stick to it.
| Pick | Team | Player | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  | QB Jayden Daniels Trade-up with CHI | |
| 2 |  | QB JJ McCarthy | Day2 |
| 3 |  | WR Marvin Harrison Jr Trade down with NE as CHI sticks with Fields | |
| 4 |  | QB Caleb Williams Trade up with ARI | |
| 5 |  | WR Malik Nabers | |
| 6 |  | OT Joe Alt | |
| 7 |  | OT Olu Fashanu | |
| 8 |  | WR Troy Franklin Trade down with ATL | Day2 |
| 9 | | TE Brock Bowers | |
| 10 |  | OT Taliese Fuaga |
Before you get in the comments on the QB picks, I admit I am no QB expert. But neither is the league as shown above. So what if…
The case for Daniels as QB1:
- Elite mobility and rushing value
- You think Caleb creates best out of structure? Nope, Daniels’s EPA on broken plays is best in this class at 0.63 (vs Caleb’s 0.48)
- One of only three QBs with a 100+ passer rating vs pressure (Nix and McCarthy are the other two)
- The best big time throw (8.4) to turnover worthy play rate (1.6) in this class
The case for JJ McCarthy as a top QB:
- With Daniels, also also one of the only QBs in this class that handles pressure well with a 111.8 passer rating
- Of the top QBs, McCarthy is the only guy with a 90+ rating at both deep and intermediate ranges
Why not Caleb as QB1… pressure:
- He was responsible for allowing over 30% of pressures, a rate almost never seen with other top drafted QBs (only Bryce Young and Zach Wilson have allowed 30% or more)
- When under pressure, Caleb was the 106th rated QB in the NCAA this year with a 47% completion rate and the highest turnover worthy play rate in this class
Remember that there are as many top 10 QBs that come from outside the 1st round as come from top 10 picks. Would JJ McCarthy succeeding be any more surprising than Dak, Lamar, Hurts, or Purdy? And if I’m wrong, hey, it’s the Commanders…
WR usually surprises, so here’s a non-chalk top-10 guy:
I work in a non-chalk top-10 receiver here. Troy Franklin, currently with an expected draft position at 36, is WR3. He will have blazing speed and is one of the best in this class against man coverage.
Picks 11-20: Mixing in some guys deeper on the boards
| Pick | Team | Player | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 |  | EDGE Dallas Turner | |
| 12 |  | QB Drake Maye | |
| 13 |  | CB Nate Wiggins | |
| 14 |  | EDGE Laiatu Latu | |
| 15 |  | WR Xavier Legette | Day2 |
| 16 |  | EDGE Darius Robinson | Day2 |
| 17 |  | CB Quinyon Mitchell | |
| 18 |  | WR Rome Odunze | |
| 19 |  | EDGE Adisa Isaac | Day2 |
| 20 |  | OT Javon Foster | Day3 |
Nate Wiggins – CB is a tough position to hit and this one aligns perfectly for me. I have no idea why Wiggins is dropping, currently CB3. He’s going first for me.
Xavier Legette – At his size and speed, he destroys man coverage, having the best Y/RR vs. man coverage in this class. Yes, he only broke out his senior season but he was incredibly good.
Adisa Isaac – One of the only EDGEs in this class with a pressure rate above 15% and run stop rate over 14% (Latu, Austin Booker, and Chris Braswell are the others).
Javon Foster – Yes, I know Mims (who would be my actual pick here) and Guyton are on the board but could Foster be this year’s Bernhard Raimann, Abraham Lucas, or Braxton Jones? Only Javon Foster and Joe Alt had both 80+ pass and run blocking grades and he showed against his best opponents, allowing 0 pressures against UGA, Kentucky, and Ohio State.
Picks 21-32: Anything goes…
| Pick | Team | Player | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 |  | IOL Jackson Powers-Johnson | |
| 22 |  | EDGE Chris Braswell | Day2 |
| 23 |  | DT T’Vondre Sweat | Day2 |
| 24 |  | RB Bucky Irving | Day2 |
| 25 |  | OT Patrick Paul | Day2 |
| 26 |  | OL Graham Barton | |
| 27 | | DT Byron Murphy II | |
| 28 |  | WR Jamari Thrash | Day3 |
| 29 |  | CB Kamal Hadden | Day3 |
| 30 |  | EDGE Austin Booker | Day3 |
| 31 |  | CB Kamari Lassiter | Day2 |
| 32 |  | WR Adonai Mitchell | Day2 |
Chris Braswell – Fits the Eagles biggest future need and what Fangio needs – only he and Latu have an 18%+ pressure rate and 14% run stop rate. And Braswell isn’t a liability dropping into coverage when called on to, which he will be.
Bucky Irving – Yes, I know, don’t take a RB in the 1st. And yes, Irving isn’t a great pass blocker. But first, it’s the Cowboys pick so I don’t care if I mess it up, second they need a solution after Pollard, and third, Irving is dangerous in the open field with a 37% missed tackle rate and 62% of yards coming after contact.
Jamari Thrash – The Bills need a deep receiving threat to help Diggs out and over the past couple of seasons, Thrash has been one of the best at it. He’s hit over 21 mph, runs good routes, and catches the ball.
Kamal Hadden – A surprise pick but before an injury shortened his season, he was the top-rated SEC CB, allowing a passer rating of 7.0 and a 36% completion percentage. He has some of the best playmaking abilities in this class (9% interception and 18% PBU rates) and was the top-graded zone corner. Christian Benford (6th round) and DaRon Bland (5th round) had similar college profiles and production but Hadden played against better competition.
Austin Booker – One of the only pass rushers (with Latu, Adisa Isaac, and Braswell) with both top pressure and run stop rates.
This isn’t meant to be right, it’s just an interesting and fun thought exercise. If I were right, I’d be the most successful GM in the league. But just think (and before you go into the comments yelling about a pick), if you are just following current simulator and big board rankings, you’re over 50% wrong also.
Speaking of comments, let me know below who YOU think could be a day 2 or 3 guy that ends up as one of the best pros.