NOTE: I recently updated this with an off-season mock 2.0 with a deeper dive into the cap situation and some changes on free agent and draft targets. You can find it here: “It’s Time for the Eagles Off-Season Mock 2.0”. There is still detail in this article that I don’t get into in the 2.0 article so time is not wasted here.
I love the draft and mocks are everywhere, but let’s try a full off-season mock for the Eagles, including retirements, free agency, and the draft.
This ended up longer than I wanted and my off-season mock 2.0 (if I do one) will just get to the point, but if you want to jump ahead in this one, here are the primary sections:
Fast forward to March 10th, 2024…
It’s a month after the Eagles win their second Super Bowl in franchise history and we are on the eve of the free agency negotiation period opening. Or, maybe the Eagles came up short in the playoffs for the second year in a row.
Regardless, Howie and team need to get back to work trying to improve the roster, one that, no matter how the season turned out, has some obvious issues. Here are my priorities for the off-season:
- Invest in areas that will be needs 1-2 years out, specifically on the defensive line as BG, Cox, Sweat, and Reddick all will either be gone or up in free agency by 2025
- Add another offensive weapon, preferably with speed
- Enough is enough, actually improve the linebacking group with some multi-year stability – every target I will ask “can they cover?” and “can they tackle?”
- Begin to turn over the secondary that is the most expensive in the league in 2024-25 at 20% of cap, old and injured at the named starters, and unproven beyond Slay.
- Add depth at OT and TE as we see how different the team is when starters are out there (and Lane and Goedert have missed time every year)
Thinking like Howie…
I’ve spent so much time digging into how the Eagles approach free agency and the draft and, while Howie always surprises us, here are the key beliefs I will use for this off-season mock:
- Howie rarely (by rarely I mean never) plays in the top-end of the free agency market – this is where contract mistakes are usually made
- Premium positions (aka, expensive positions) are where premium draft capital is used
- When we get to the draft, ignore what we think are immediate holes – Howie will fill immediate needs through free agency and trades
- Instead, look out 1-2 years to expected free agency losses for where top draft picks will be used
For this off-season mock, this is what I would do but I will try to stay true to how Howie operates (no 1st round running backs, no breaking the bank on free agents).
But there will be differences – this is not intended to be a “what will Howie do” mock.
Salary cap status
Effective cap space: $45M
Dead cap: $28M
The Eagles enter 2024 with $32M of effective cap space (once you assume the top 51 salaries and rookie pool are included) and $4M of dead cap, their lowest amount of dead cap in what seems like a decade. With some retirements and roster cuts, we take on quite a bit more dead cap but raise free cap space to $45M in 2024.
Retirements, cuts, and trades
Really no surprise here as the roster is either guys the Eagles want to keep or guys whose contracts can’t be ended yet. Only a few pretty obvious moves here:
- Retirements: I have Kelce and BG retiring, both would need to be a June 1 designation and have a small benefit to the cap. Kelce I am pretty sure retires, BG less certain but even if he stays, the cap impact is minimal.
- On the secondary: At least 1-2 guys need to move on as they have to make room for Isaiah Rodgers and the young guys need to be able to get on the field. Slay is not movable until 2025. I am releasing Avonte to save $7.5M, maybe he returns on a cheaper deal but, if not, that is fine. Bradberry doesn’t have much 2024 cap benefit but I want to treat him right and let him go somewhere he can start.
- Fletch: Many will question Fletch staying. No, he’s not the same player he was, but his cap hit is $5.7M in 2024 and only saves the Eagles $1.5M to release him. Most will say he is overpaid but go check how many DTs go for less and are as good… I can save you the time, there are zero. Last year you would have signed guys like Jonathan Hankins (6 pressures, 42.8 run defense grade) or Daniel Ekuale (53 snaps, career 26% missed tackle rate). We do need to replace him and he may end up getting caught up in a numbers game getting to the 53.
| Player | Cap Impact | |
|---|---|---|
| Pre June 1 | None | – |
| June 1 | Jason Kelce (retire) Brandon Graham (retire) Avonte Maddox (cut or trade) James Bradberry (trade) | $1.5M $1.5M $7.5M $1.2M |
The cuts add space but they are all post June 1 designation, so we will need to manage the cap through free agency.
Preemptive extensions
There are a few players that we want to proactively extend well before they get to free agency.
Josh Sweat, not yet 28, would be one of the jewels of the 2025 DE class and the Eagles don’t let him get to that point. His deal is forecasted to be in the $22M range but would not be surprised if the Eagles needed to go higher. Sweat is going nowhere.
DeVonta Smith is extended before his 4th season with a seemingly massive deal, but the Eagles smartly get out in front of the coming Justin Jefferson, CeeDee, Waddle, and Ja’Marr extensions.
Landon Dickerson becomes the highest paid guard in Eagles history and 3rd highest in the league which is fair.
| Player | Extension |
|---|---|
| Josh Sweat | 3 year, $65M ($21.7M AAV) |
| Landon Dickerson | 4 year, $75M ($18.8M AAV) |
| DeVonta Smith | 5 year, $145M ($29.0M AAV) |
Updated effective cap: $35M
I won’t over-analyze the cap structure, but assuming that each contract – like every Howie contract – is backloaded and includes a couple of void years, the Eagles 2024 cap space is down to $35M and estimated around $40M in 2025 and $50M in 2026.
One thing I will not do is restructure guys like Lane, Slay, or Goedert – it’s fine to push money into the future but not for players that either won’t (Slay, Lane) or may not (Dallas) be here in 2-3 years.
Notably absent from this list is Haason Reddick. The Eagles would love to keep him but with Reddick over 30 years old at the end of this contract and market value being near $30M AAV, like Javon Hargrave, it’s a deal the Eagles aren’t able to get done.
Free agency
Every year there are calls for the Eagles to sign the top guys and it will happen again next March with guys like DT Chris Jones, EDGE Danielle Hunter, CB Jaylon Jones, LB Devin White, or S Jeremy Chinn. But here are their top dollar signings (by AAV) each year:
- 2023 – Marcus Mariota $5M, Terrell Edmunds $2M
- 2022 – Haason Reddick $15M, James Bradberry $7.25M
- 2021 – Anthony Harris $4M, Joe Flacco $3.5M
- 2020 – Javon Hargrave $13M, Will Parks $1.5M
- 2019 – Malik Jackson $10M, Vinny Curry $2.25M
The Eagles rarely crack the top 20 in free agent contracts and when they do, it’s been on the lines: Reddick was the 10th biggest contract in 2022, Javon Hargrave the 11th in 2020, and Malik Jackson the 19th in 2019.
Re-signing our own free agents
The Eagles have several players hitting free agency after the 2023 season, here are the notable ones I will look to re-sign:
D’Andre Swift showed he is the best RB the Eagles have had in years. While the Eagles are criticized for ignoring the position, at 24 years old and the market for top free agents usually in the $5-6M range, the Eagles break tradition and give out a multi-year contract.
Jack Driscoll is cheap and everything you want in a backup OL, able to fill in at OT or OG.
Zack Cunningham may get bid up by other teams and I’m not sure he takes a 1 year deal, but has played well. He cannot – and will not – be the only answer at LB but he is worth keeping.
Braden Mann finally fixed the punter position and he earned a middle-of-the-league punter contract. Me? I’d still draft one and save the cap space, but the Eagles go for the known which is correct.
| Player | Extension |
|---|---|
| D’Andre Swift | 3 year, $16.0M ($5.3M AAV) |
| Zach Cunningham | 1 year $4.0M ($4.0M AAV) |
| Jack Driscoll | 2 year, $4.5M ($2.3M AAV) |
| Braden Mann | 2 year, $4.0M ($2.0M AAV) |
There are a ton of other depth free agents that may or may not be re-signed, I won’t get into the detail as they all will be around league minimum salaries but here’s what I would try for (special teams is a lot of my focus on these):
- FAs not resigned: WR Quez Watkins, LBs Nicholas Morrow, Christian Elliss, and Shaun Bradley, CB Bradley Roby, RB Rashaad Penny, TE Jack Stoll, QB Marcus Mariota
- Re-sign for min deals: WR Olamide Zaccheus, OL Sua Opeta, S Justin Evans, LS Rick Lovato, RB Boston Scott
Free agent targets
LB Blake Cashman – Highly athletic LB (95th percentile) that has had an extremely good year in Houston, 15% run stop rate and one of the better coverage LBs in the league this year. Only one year on meaningful snaps which limits his market some but he will be one of the best LBs the Eagles have had in years.
TE Colby Parkinson – Buried on Seattle’s depth chart, Colby is 25 years old and 6’7″, which you know I have a love for giant TEs. He’s already a much better blocker than Stoll and has receiving upside which he showed at Stanford. In very limited targets this year (17), he’s close to having more receiving yards (150) than Stoll does in his career (177). Last year Colby had a 1.48 YRR which, if he could keep up, puts him in the neighborhood of Evan Engram, Tyler Higbee, and David Njoku. Colby is definitely an upgrade at TE2 and could provide a successor to Goedert if he develops.
OT Josh Jones – The Eagles met with Jones leading up to the 2020 draft. Now a backup in Houston, I’m not sure the Texans let him leave his hometown but he plays both tackle spots and can play guard which is ideal for what Philly needs. He was showing promise last year but has been limited this season with an injury.
QB Tyrod Taylor – I’m good with letting Tanner McKee take QB2 but the Eagles will definitely want a veteran. I’m no fan of Mariota and his contract and will bring in Hokie Tyrod Taylor, who has outperformed Mariota his entire career.
| Free Agent | Est Contract |
|---|---|
| LB Blake Cashman | 3 yrs, $14.5M ($4.8M AAV) |
| TE Colby Parkinson | 3 year, $13.0M ($4.3M AAV) |
| OT Josh Jones | 2 years, $4.5M ($2.3M AAV) |
| QB Tyrod Taylor | 1 year, $2.8M ($2.8M AAV) |
Updated effective cap: $11M
Again, I’m not over-stressing on the structure of the deals and they will have some minor backloading, but these signings take cap space down around $11M in 2024 which we will need for the rookie pool and space entering the season.
April 25th, on to the Draft
The Eagles have four premium picks (top 3 rounds) with an extra 2nd rounder that gets closer and closer to the 1st round every week thanks to the Saints.
| Pick | Player | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| R1 | CB Terrion Arnold, Alabama | PHI needs cost-controlled talent at CB and there isn’t a guy on the roster you can be sure of after Slay. Arnold has all the traits, is disruptive at the catch point, and has good film against LSU and Texas receivers. |
| R2 | WR Troy Franklin, Oregon | You can’t get offensive weapons in free agency without paying a ton so I check off my offensive weapon goal here. Franklin runs crisp routes and is dangerous – he’s hit 22.3mph which will easily be the fastest on this team. |
| R2 | DE Jack Sawyer, Ohio State | Sawyer is a bigger DE with a non-stop motor and tons of power and some versatility that fills the BG void. |
| R3 | DT Byron Murphy II, Texas | Many will question another DT but this is BPA at this pick, another position that is really expensive in free agency, and we need to replace 700-800 Fletch snaps still. A 16% pressure rate is best among DTs in this class and better than all but Quinnen Williams in recent years. |
| R5 | LB Smael Mondon, UGA | I addressed LB in free agency because it needs to be improved immediately, but add another LB here. Mondon’s strength is coverage and instincts but he is undersized. |
| R5 | CB Khyree Jackson, Oregon | Doubling-up at CB with a fast, high-upside corner with an insane 24% PBU rate, best in this class. |
| R5 | OG Beaux Limmer, Arkansas | The Eagles have invested heavily in the OL the past 3 years and now need to look at depth. Beaux has played both guard spots and center and another center |
| R5 | RB Jarquez Hunter, Auburn | 70% of his yards come after contact and a 15% explosive rush rate who has put up really good games against Alabama. |
| R6 | OT Anthony Belton, NC State | A developmental guy for Stout – he’s big (6’6″, 336, 35″ arms), nasty, and has quick feet. Had good games against Florida State but inexperienced and needs work on technique and reducing penalties. |
Updated depth chart
Here’s what we go with free agents in orange and draft picks in green – hope you enjoy.
I know many will want a Trotter pick (which I would also like) and think an early 2nd round pick on another WR is too rich. Yes, maybe it is. But having two WR1s isn’t special, it’s a minimum for good teams. And second, with how good the top end of this WR class is, BPA when the Eagles pick at their top two picks may very well be a receiver (which it was in my opinion in this sim).
And I know many will want a new Lane replacement with the top pick. The reason I did not do this is, first, the Eagles are going to need to move up a good amount to get somebody that I think can replace Lane, and, second, Lane has said he plans to play through 2026, meaning a round 1 pick sits on the bench almost the entire rookie contract.
What are my own criticisms of this offseason mock? First, if Cam Jurgens goes down, the backup at center could be rough. Second, I am taking on some risk at corner, especially the slot – cutting Avonte may be selling low, but he has played one full season ever. And at some point we have to turn this group over and now is the time to start as CBs take time to develop.
Thanks for reading and if you aren’t already, please follow us at @PhillyCvrCorner, @PhillyEagleNews, and @GregHartPA
Really great article! One of your best.
Thanks Ira, it was fun doing. Mock drafts are great but it is only one piece of the total strategy.
That defense would be no better then what was on the field in 2023
Maybe but a couple points: On personnel, I think this secondary is significantly better – JBJ out, and Rodgers and Wiggins (or other young CB) in are absolutely upgrades, and Xavier McKinney at least replaces Byard (and probably is a slight upgrade). At LB Cashman and Edgerrin (or other draft pick) are absolutely upgrades over Shaq and Morrow who played 1500 snaps combined. The DL is the question and depends on young guys like Nolan and Ojomo and more out of Milt. Could switch one of the free agents and bring in Van Ginkel who I would be shocked if he wasn’t an Eagles and I probably should have added. And second, a lot of the issue in 2023 was scheme and switching coaching half way through, we will see if Fangio is better but I can’t imagine it being worse than last year with on-the-field confusion, wrong assignments, etc.