Death, taxes, the Brotherly Shove, me wanting to draft a punter, and Jake Elliott‘s late-game kicks. And I really think on that list only death is truly as certain as Jake.
There was a lot of back-and-forth (and anger) this past week on “success rate”, which Jalen Hurts currently ranks 22nd in the league. The analytics community defines “success” as plays with a positive Expected Points Added (EPA). EPA uses historical scoring data based on down, distance, and field position to say what expected scoring should be from any game situation. Over simplifying, a play that gets you closer to scoring than the historical average play will have a positive EPA. A QB’s success rate is purely the percentage of their plays that had a positive EPA.
I posted an example of this from the final overtime series in the Commanders game. On 2nd-and-6 from Washington’s 34 yardline, the Eagles were already within field goal range. The grounding call on Hurts changed that quickly, pushing them back to 3rd-and-17 from the 45 which would have been a 62-yard field goal to try to win the game, one yard further than Jake Elliott‘s career long. Hurts next hit DeVonta Smith for 9 yards to get to 4th down from the 36 yardline and the eventual 54-yard field goal to win.
This 9-yard pass is analytically NOT considered a success as the league only makes 56% of 54-yard field goals. But this has been going up as kickers get better and better – over the last 5 years, kickers are hitting over 63% from 54 yards and, over the past 2 years, it has been right around 70%. Most teams would feel pretty good about giving themselves a shot to win from the 36 yardline in overtime.
Add to it that this was a kick-to-win-the-game where Jake Elliott has not missed, and the analytics were wrong here.
Where Jake stacks up historically
Kicking has been going through a renaissance with distances and accuracy steadily increasing, especially since 2016. Field goal percentages are up over 10% since 2000 but this is also while distances are dramatically going up – almost four times as many 50+ yarders are being attempted now than 2000 and hit rates for those kicks have risen from 44% to almost 66%.
Elliott is one of today’s best kickers, but he has already placed himself with some of the game’s best kickers over the past 20 years. Jake is 14th in field goal percentage made since 2000, hitting 86.5% of his kicks, but he is 7th in EPA per kick.
Below lists the league’s top 20:
| FG% Rank | Kicker | Attempts | FG% | EPA/FG | EPA Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | J.Tucker | 420 | 90.0% | 0.372 | 1 |
| 1 | E.Pineiro | 70 | 90.0% | 0.157 | 10 |
| 3 | Y.Koo | 137 | 89.1% | 0.210 | 3 |
| 4 | D.Carlson | 166 | 88.6% | 0.123 | 13 |
| 5 | R.Patterson | 52 | 88.5% | 0.142 | 12 |
| 6 | H.Butker | 211 | 87.7% | 0.206 | 4 |
| 7 | E.McPherson | 81 | 87.7% | 0.300 | 2 |
| 8 | M.Gay | 129 | 87.6% | 0.166 | 9 |
| 9 | J.Lambo | 151 | 87.4% | 0.168 | 8 |
| 10 | C.Boswell | 250 | 87.2% | 0.122 | 14 |
| 11 | R.Gould | 546 | 87.2% | 0.110 | 18 |
| 12 | M.Stover | 288 | 86.8% | 0.095 | 22 |
| 13 | S.Gostkowski | 499 | 86.8% | 0.073 | 29 |
| 14 | J.Elliott | 192 | 86.5% | 0.170 | 7 |
| 15 | K.Forbath | 158 | 86.1% | 0.111 | 17 |
| 16 | S.Hauschka | 335 | 86.0% | 0.085 | 24 |
| 17 | M.Bryant | 478 | 85.8% | 0.068 | 31 |
| 18 | D.Bailey | 299 | 85.6% | 0.084 | 25 |
| 19 | J.Myers | 233 | 85.4% | 0.172 | 6 |
| 20 | T.Bass | 109 | 85.3% | 0.100 | 21 |
And when you look where he stands in Eagles history, it really isn’t close even though we have had some good kickers. He is almost 2% better on field goal percentage than 2nd-place Cody Parkey and Jake’s the only kicker with a positive EPA.
- Jake Elliott – 86.5% FG percentage and a +0.170 EPA/kick
- Cody Parkey – 84.7% and -0.079 EPA
- Alex Henery – 81.7% and -0.092 EPA
- David Akers – 81.6% and -0.095 EPA
- Caleb Sturgis – 80.0% and -0.227 EPA
The only place where Jake isn’t leading is draft day selection “Napalm-ings” of the entire Dallas franchise, trailing Akers by one (but that will have to be remedied sometime in the future…)
But Elliott is even better than that
The story on Jake is even more impressive when you dig a bit deeper. What we all feel – that when the kicks are biggest, Jake is automatic – isn’t just a feeling. He may be the league’s best big-moment kicker.
Top-10 since 2000 when kicking to tie or take the lead
Jake is 59-for-67, or 88.1%, when kicking to tie or take the lead, good for 7th best since 2000 (minimum 60 kicks). And he’s in good company – Jason Elam leads kickers since 2000 with a 91.7% rate and today’s (and probably the eventual all-time) best kicker, Justin Tucker, is 5th and just ahead of Jake at a 89.3% rate.
…the top kicker when kicking to tie or take the lead in the 4th quarter or overtime
But when you look at the biggest kicks – those in the 4th quarter or overtime to tie or take the lead – Jake is one of only five perfect kickers since 2000 (Stephen Gotkowski, Jason Sanders, Matt Gay, and Josh Lambo). And Jake’s EPA on these kicks is +0.758, 2nd behind only Miami’s Jason Sanders.
…and perfect on end of game kicks
On kicks in the last minute of a game, Jake is 9-for-9, again tied for the best rate among kickers since 2000. Maybe even more impressive is his +0.899 EPA/kick on these kicks, over 0.200 better than the next best kicker, the GOAT Justin Tucker.
A lot of kicking stats are admittedly small sample sizes, but that is the life of a kicker – careers can be made or destroyed on just a handful of attempts. Just ask Philly native Matt Ammendola or Dominik Eberle or even Scott Norwood, a Pro Bowl kicker who will forever be known for “wide right”.
Even long-career guys may only have a dozen game-winning kick opportunities. But it is what it is… and Elliott right now is making the most of his opportunities and performing at an all-time level.
And we saw all of this against the Giants in week 3 of the 2017 season, only his third career game. After starting the season off a concerning 2-for-4 on field goals, missing a 30 yard chipshot against the Chiefs and from 52 yards earlier in the Giants game, Elliott got his chance late in the game. And he added another memorable game to Eagles lore. Everybody remembers his long field goal to win, but many forget that Elliott hit two big field goals in the final minute.
The Eagles were down 21-24 with just over 3:00 left in the game. Wentz drives the Eagles to the Giants 28 yardline and Elliott hits a 46-yarder to tie the game 51 seconds remaining. A quick defensive hold, and time only allowed a Wentz 19-yard pass to Alshon, leaving one second left for what looked like a hopeless 61-yard attempt. Take a watch and enjoy.
We can add “the league’s most clutch kicker” to the list of things this Eagles team is historically special with: one of the league’s best and most efficient run games, Hurts as one of the best QBs late in halfs, a historic pressure and sack pass rush, and the league’s best time-consuming offense.