After my last post on modeling the Eagles 2023 season and predicting another “over”, I got a lot of questions about the rest of the league, so I’m back here with the teams I have modeled that could out and under perform expectations the most.
If you have not seen my prior articles on modeling wins, please go check them out which are all linked in the post above. But as a brief summary, I use aggregated player values which has a high correlation to scoring (and wins) as well as expected strength of schedule and “luck” adjustments to model the season.
Top teams poised to outperform
Tennessee Titans (+2.9 wins)
10.4 wins vs. 7.5 line
This is my biggest non-chalk pick. I’ve been a perpetual bear on the Titans the past several seasons and this is the first time I have modeled them outperforming. There is risk to this – they are tied with the Rams with the most young starters and my model assumes growth from young players.
- Of all pieces, their receivers is where I could regret the pick as so much depends on the growth of Treylon Burks (which I feel good about) and health of DeAndre Hopkins (which I worry on). But after years of the offense being all Derrick Henry, just getting league average here is big upside
- Their two biggest weaknesses – OL and secondary – won’t be great but both should be improved with offseason additions and growth from young players
Green Bay Packers (+2.7 wins)
10.2 wins vs. 7.5 line
Another team with a lot of young players they will depend on starting with Jordan Love. It’s tough to replace Aaron Rodgers but Rodgers had a down year (by his standards at least) last year and the Packers lost some key players to injury.
- It’s a small sample, but Love has been efficient and their offensive line will continue to be good.
- So much depends on growth of his receivers and having Romeo Doubs and a rookie as WR2 and 3 is enough to “sell” on the Packers.
- They were historically injured last year and some improvements on health and an easier schedule give them a lift.
Dallas Cowboys (+2.0 wins)
11.5 wins vs. 9.5 line
Full disclosure, the Cowboys have been a team I have been wrong on the past two years as I wrongly projected Dak’s return from injury and a struggling offensive line. And as much as it pains me to project them outperforming, I just don’t see the 9.5 line.
- They’ve added more than they’ve lost in the offseason – Stephon Gilmore improves the secondary (if he stays on the field) and Brandin Cooks is probably better than his recent history catching passes in Houston
- They have quite a bit of age risk with an older roster than has been injured
Honorable Mention: Atlanta Falcons (+0.9 wins)
Including the Falcons here just because I wrote previously on them being one of my favorite teams to outperform. The only reason I didn’t include them above is because offseason expectations have caught up, with their win line rising a full win.
- They’ve added way more than they lost in the offseason, especially on the defensive side. And while I didn’t like the Bijan Robinson pick from a surplus value perspective, I am all for surrounding a young QB with talent and he does that
- Ridder was my QB1 two drafts ago and him even being a decent QB improves the team greatly after Mariota. I think he could be better than “decent”, especially with an OL that should be quite better.
- They suffered from puzzling personnel usage with Kyle Pitts and Drake London last year and I find it hard to imagine them doing the same this season
Top teams to sell
Los Angeles Rams (-2.3 wins)
4.2 wins vs. 6.5 line
It’s tough to pick an under on a 6.5 win line, but it’s a roster that time has finally caught up with. There are always bottom teams where little goes right and this should be the Rams
- Tied with the Titans for one of the youngest set of starters, but a roster that is hard to pick out talent once you get past Matthew Stafford, Aaron Donald, and the banged up Cooper Kupp
- On the plus side and the biggest risk to my prediction, they get to play the Cardinals twice
New England Patriots (-2.1 wins)
5.4 wins vs. 7.5 line
This would be a win total they haven’t seen since 2000 but they have quite a bit going against them.
- Optimism on the Pats always starts with the defense and run game which is no way to build a team today. Juju will help but he also doesn’t have Ben or Mahomes throwing to him here.
- One of the hardest schedules in the league and they could be 3-7 at the bye and a tougher post-bye schedule.
- On the plus side and what could make this model look comical in retrospect, having Bill O’Brien call plays instead of Patricia may be worth a win or two alone.
I can’t see the Eagles starting with a loss to the Patriots as they are just better at almost every position and dramatically better at the positions that matter most. I see some expressing some concern stopping Rhamondre Stevenson who is very good. But the Eagles run defense should be much improved this season and if that is how the Pats have to try and beat the Eagles, I’ll take it.
Minnesota Vikings (-1.5 wins)
7.0 wins vs. 8.5 line
An obvious regression target as they had more one-score win “luck” than any other team last season, and their line at 8.5 wins after a 13-win season reflects it. But it’s still too high.
- They lost a ton in the offseason, especially on defense and in the secondary.
- On top of outperforming in one-score games, they also likely will see some injury regression and have a much tougher schedule with an improved division which they went 4-2 against last season.
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