It’s time! Everybody is busy mocking who gets their franchise quarterback, where the pass rushers go, and debating where the running backs will go this year. But let’s not forget about the specialists…
Punters are getting better and better, with last year’s class being an all-time great. And this year there is another batch of huge legs coming out of college. For the teams that need a punter, you have another shot this year.
If you are new and don’t think teams should draft punters, click here for why
I will hit the key points here, but if interested, I’ll link more detailed dives into the data below:
Around pick 150, punters have the highest expected value
If you aren’t a punter fan, this sounds like heresy. But the reason for it is simple – the chance of getting even a league average player in the 5th round is 20%, in the 6th it’s only 13%, and the 7th just 8%. And a large number of these picks never even play – a third in the 6th round and almost half in the 7th. Late in the draft when teams are picking WR30 or EDGE25 and most likely getting a player that never plays, they could take one of the top punters that will last for a decade.
For more: “Drafting a Punter Makes Analytical Sense”
Top punters are worth around 4 points per game over a bad punter
Again, I know this will be doubted. But I looked at actual, in-game scoring after 28,000 punts since 2010 and found that the top quintile of punters suppress opponent scoring by around a point per punt. This makes sense – better punts (either a further punt or one downed inside the 20 yardline) make it harder for the opponent to score.
For more: “What’s the Value of a Good Punt?”
“Teams don’t draft punters”
They do. And it’s more common than most think. Since 2010:
- Almost 2 punters are drafted each year on average with at least one taken every year except two
- 19 teams have drafted punters with 6 teams being frequent shoppers, drafting a punter twice
- Punters average being taken at pick 180 and they usually start coming off the board between 140-150
Below shows all 25 punters taken by pick location since 2010.
Who needs a punter this year?
There are 4 teams that are top candidates to take a punter and another 3 that could surprise. Below shows each team’s punting performance in 2023 by punt EPA (credits to Puntalytics) and punt grade (PFF) with the likely teams in red:
“Lock to Take One” tier:
New England
| Punt EPA: | -0.29 | 32nd |
| Punt Grade: | 51.85 | 32nd |
| # of Punts / Game: | 4.7 | 9th |
| Pick 140+: | 4 |
If there was ever a lock to take a punter, it should be New England this year. They are by far last in the league in punting after the Jake Bailey era weirdly ended. Belichick has twice drafted a punter high (pick 150 in 2010 and 163 in 2019) and has 4 picks in the 6th round. One thing to note is Belichick has almost exclusively used left-footed punters up until Jake Bailey but this is a righty-dominated draft.
“Likely To” tier:
Green Bay
| Punt EPA: | -0.01 | 22nd |
| Punt Grade: | 59.00 | 27th |
| # of Punts / Game: | 3.2 | 30th |
| Picks 140+: | 6 |
The Packers should draft a punter but I’m not sure they will. They drafted JK Scott in 2018, released him, and signed Pat O’Donnell who is 32, showed some decline, and is at best middle-of-the league. The Packers are well equipped to take a punter with 6 picks after 140, but they punt at one of the lowest rates in the league. One thing to note, they have one of the highest rates of short-field punting in the league (6th in the league with 20% of punts being from plus territory).
Arizona
| Punt EPA: | -0.05 | 27th |
| Punt Grade: | 63.40 | 20th |
| # of Punts / Game: | 4.2 | 15th |
| Picks 140+: | 3 |
Arizona has a first-time GM in Monti Ossenfort who was previously with the Patriots and most recently the Titans’ Director of Player Personnel. Did he have a hand in finding 2022’s man-who-kicked-the-daylights-out-of-the-ball Ryan Stonehouse? Legend, and now-oldest man in the NFL, Andy Lee is a free agent and while he could return, Arizona needs to bring in a successor.
Washington
| Punt EPA: | 0.05 | 12th |
| Punt Grade: | 56.10 | 28th |
| # of Punts / Game: | 4.9 | 4th |
| Picks 140+: | 4 |
On the surface, the Commanders don’t seem like a candidate to draft a punter. But their offense has them punting a lot, Tress Way is 33, he’s been on a clear decline and is the 3rd highest paid punter in the league. And while the franchise hasn’t drafted a punter since 2008, GM Martin Mayhew has punters in his past – he was VP of Player Personnel with San Francisco when they took Mitch Wishnowsky at pick 110 and Detroit’s GM in 2013 when they drafted Sam Martin at pick 165.
“Should But Probably Won’t” tier:
Philadelphia
| Punt EPA: | 0.00 | 21st |
| Punt Grade: | 54.20 | 31st |
| # of Punts / Game: | 3.7 | 24th |
| Picks 140+: | 2 |
The evergreen Eagles-need-a-punter section… the Super Bowl pain of a horrible punt to the wrong side of the field at the worst time reinforces the need for Philly to upgrade. But they are one of the few teams that has never used a pick on a punter and Howie’s overriding positional value approach means they probably won’t again. I don’t like doubting Howie but he is missing out on an opportunity to upgrade during this punting “Golden Era” of talent coming out.
“Wildcard” tier:
Indianapolis
| Punt EPA: | -0.09 | 30th |
| Punt Grade: | 62.20 | 22nd |
| # of Punts / Game: | 4.2 | 15th |
| Picks 140+: | 3 |
The Colts should have Rigoberto Sanchez coming back from a torn achilles who is an amazing story – after having a malignant tumor removed in 2020, he was back 2 weeks later. But he costs $2.9M against the cap and the Colts will need to see how his recovery is going.
Houston
| Punt EPA: | 0.09 | 7th |
| Punt Grade: | 61.90 | 23rd |
| # of Punts / Game: | 5.2 | 3rd |
| Picks 140+: | 0 |
Familiar face Cameron Johnston punts for Houston and is still a decent punter, but is due $3.5M in 2023 and his performance doesn’t match the price. The Texans aren’t in a great spot to take one with no picks after 140, but late picks are easy to find. GM Nick Caserio comes from New England who has drafted as many punters as anybody.
The 2023 punter mock
R5-149: Green Bay – Michael Turk, Oklahoma
The Packers, best equipped this year with punter draft capital (picks later than 140), get things started and move aggressively. With a 4.20 second average hangtime and 46-yard average using the crappy college ball, the Packers are getting the best all-around punter this year.
Known more for his distance, Turk has put an amazing, best-in-this-draft 48% of his career punts inside the 20 yardline
R5-156: New England – Brad Robbins, Michigan
The run on punters begins! The Patriots don’t have pick 156 today but Belichick is the most active trader in the league. They pick up 156 from an earlier trade and take go back to Michigan for the second time. Bill doesn’t get his lefty punter but Robbins would be talked about as the best in this class if not for an injury half-way through the season. He could end up having the best pro career in this class.
Nobody beat Robbins’ pre-injury pace of a 4.37 hangtime and 47-yard average (and his 2021 full-year stats are similarly impressive)
R6-213: Arizona – Ethan Evans, Wingate
Monti Ossenfort brings in a potential college gem from D-II as a successor to legend Andy Lee. A huge leg, Monti will be attempting to repeat the Titans’ Stonehouse magic from last year.
Evans shined in the Shrine and Hula Bowls, averaging over 46 yards including punts of 59 and 53 yards, longer than anybody else except Turk
R7-215: Washington – Bryce Baringer, Michigan St
In a second-straight strong class, Baringer could have gone higher and Washington benefits, picking up somebody that can be a top punter in the NFL. Washington punts a lot and might as well be good at it.
Baringer shines from the open-field, averaging almost 51 yards a punt there.
UDFA Signing: Philadelphia – Adam Korsak, Rutgers
The Eagles unsurprisingly and disappointingly don’t use a pick on a punter but do sign local Adam Korsak as competition for Siposs. This is a much better fit than most, including me, initially gave credit for. The Eagles don’t punt often, 24th in the league, but actually punt from short-fields at the 10th highest rate. Korsak doesn’t give the distance or hangtime the others in this class do, but is an assassin locating the ball and eliminating returns. If he was kicking in the Super Bowl, there’s no doubt in my mind Kadarius Toney has no return.
On short-field punts, Korsak forces opposing teams to start on the 6 (SIX!) yardline – nobody else in this class is better than the 12 yard line. And in 2023 on 75 punts, he allowed 8 returns for minus-2 yards total with 35 punts inside the 20 and only 2 touchbacks.
UDFA Signing: Houston – Issac Power, Baylor
This is probably my favorite fit of all the picks. With no late picks, Houston waits until the UDFA signing period to bring in competition for Cameron Johnston. Staying local, the Texans are banking on a return to 2021 form by Baylor’s Power after a disappointing 2022 kicking the new, punter-hating Vapor Elite ball. If he does get back to 2021 numbers, the Texans may have found the steal of the draft. Like last year’s Stonehouse, several teams may end up regretting passing on Power.
In 2021, Power averaged a 4.31 hangtime and 45.0 distance, which would make him this year’s top punter