I’m here to tell you not to stress if people disagree with your mocks. And not to care if somebody gives you an “lol” on a pick they think is a reach. You know why?
Almost half of the 1st round is wrong
Of course every team is trying to find the next 1st round All-Pro but hit rates remain tough, even in the 1st.
The draft is really about finding the top 50-60 value players, give or take. After that, players are borderline starters at best or complete misses at worst. Here they are 40th percentile and lower players, players like Jalen Reagor, Rasul Douglas, and Vaitai.
To show the difficulty in hitting, here are how many top-32 and top-50 players are drafted in each round.
| R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | R5 | R6 | R7 | |
| Top 32 players | 15.1 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| Top 50 players | 20.0 | 12.0 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 |
Think about that. Year in and year out, 38% (or 12 players) in the 1st round aren’t even top-50 players in the league. It gets worse as you look at the first two rounds with 50% of players being outside the top-50.
And many of these players don’t miss by a little – one of every six 1st round picks and one out of almost every four picks in the 2nd is a total miss, landing outside the top 100 players.
Some of these are largely due to injury, like OT Mekhi Becton, pick 11 in 2020. Many are just misses. Tampa’s pick of O.J. Howard… John Ross, pick 9 in 2017 by the Bengals, one spot before Patrick Mahomes… every round 1 pick by the Raiders.
And don’t dismiss it as “that’s just the poor drafting teams”. Minnesota, New England, and Dallas were three of the best drafting teams since 2015 and each had misses in the 1st with Jeff Gladney, Laquon Treadwell, N’Keal Harry, and Taco Charlton.
It’s unavoidable to have draft misses.
Where do the top-50 players come from?
While hit rates are low after the first couple of rounds, there are still more top players found late than most realize.
- 40% of the top-50 players are found after the 2nd round
- 20% are found on day 3
When in doubt, draft the interior lines
The interior offensive and defensive lines have the most top-50 players drafted late and the best hit rates. Tackles and safeties are also next best.
Examples: Jamaree Salyer, Trey Smith, Orlando Brown Jr., Terron Armstead, David Bakhtiari, Sebastian Joseph-Day
The premium positions are worst – find them early
Yes, everybody points to Tariq Woolen and Tyreek Hill, but it’s not a good plan to depend on late picks to find QBs, WRs, or CBs. They have hit rates well below average. EDGE is slightly better but still low.
Examples: Diontae Johnson, Quandre Diggs, Dak Prescott
Most are still from the big schools… but not all
Since 2010, over 80% of the top-50 players found on day 3 were from the major programs – the top 5 schools (Iowa, Wisconsin, UGA, Arkansas, and Clemson) account for 20% of the total by themselves. But another 20% come from non-major programs, schools like Louisiana Tech, Central Florida, Coastal Carolina, Delaware, Grand Valley State, and several others.
Examples: L’Jarius Sneed, Xavier Woods, Gabriel Davis, Latavius Murray, Cooper Kupp, Matt Judon, JC Tretter, Maxx Crosby
My guys I am reaching down the board for…
The next mock you do, maybe reach deeper down the big boards. Trust your opinion if you like a player’s film. Remember – if you are just following somebody’s big board, a big chunk of your first round is likely going to be wrong.
How am I thinking about the 2023 draft and who are players that won’t be in the first round but in a few years, I think we could be looking back at as top players? Here are some guys I like thinking about how past drafts have unfolded:
| Players just outside the 1st (that shouldn’t be) | EDGE Fleix Anudike-Uzomah WR Marvin Mims CB Emmanuel Forbes |
| “Just the trenches” | OT Wanya Morris DT Moro Ojomo |
| Day 3 gems | LB Dorian Williams SAF Quindell Johnson |
| Small school guys that could surprise | DT Karl Brooks OC/OG Jake Andrews |
Players from outside the 1st:
These are the one-third of day 2 guys that I see having much higher potential
EDGE Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Kansas St – I’ve written on him several times and still think he ultimately goes R1, but today he is slotted as a day two guy so I am including him. One of only four prospects with a win rate above 30% and run stop rate above 13%. He’s constantly disruptive.
WR Marvin Mims, Oklahoma – He has all the things you look for that point to NFL success. Broke out at just 18 years old, a top Y/RR, has the 2nd best YAC/rec in this class, and is one of the better deep threats in this class. Knocked for his size and probable slot role in the pros, he could stand out in an open WR class.
CB Emmanuel Forbes, Miss St – Another guy I have written about plenty and I have him over several other CBs ahead of him. He’s one of the top man corners in this class, has the best run stop rate, and oh, by the way, 14 career interceptions on only 191 targets. I usually dismiss interceptions as they are not stable year-to-year, but when you have 6, 3, and 5 over three seasons, maybe you don’t dismiss it.
“Just pick the trenches” guys:
As mentioned above, historically the lines are the best places to look for overachievers so that’s where I am going here
OT Wanya Morris, Oklahoma – Overshadowed by LT Anton Harrison, he has all the athletic traits you want and handled future pros like Dylan Horton and Derick Hall at the Senior Bowl.
DT Moro Ojomo, Texas – He’s not going to stand out on measurables but he’s one of the players I love because he is the type of player you want on your team. An outspoken leader, he’s a technician with great hands, brings solid run stopping value and pass rushing upside.
Day 3 gems:
Chances are lower here, but each year there are still around 10 picks on day 3 that end up being gems.
LB Dorian Williams, Tulane – A bit smaller and buried with an EDP in the 160s, he is a flexible LB that matches what many teams want. He has surprising coverage ability downfield, can tackle, and one of the better pass rushers in this class.
SAF Quindell Johnson, Memphis – Memphis has been a feeder program to the NFL recently and has 14 picks since 2015 and several top RBs, but no standouts in the secondary. Quindell could change that. He has good size, will run well, and has one of the better PBU rates in this safety class.
Small school guys that could surprise:
DT Karl Brooks, Bowling Green – Played out of position on the edge and snubbed at the Combine, he had 12 sacks and 47 pressures this year and showed his power at the Senior Bowl
OC/OG Jake Andrews, Troy – Athletic with good size, versatility on the line and has the nastiness you want. Showed some good reps against Keion White and Keeanu Benton at the Senior Bowl
Thanks for reading and if you aren’t already, please follow us at @PhillyCvrCorner, @PhillyEagleNews, and @GregHartPA
Additional data:
Including detail on the average number of top-50 players by position and round in case anybody wanted it:
| R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | R5 | R6 | R7 | Total by Position | |
| IOL | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 7.0 |
| T | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 5.8 |
| WR | 2.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 5.7 |
| IDL | 2.3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 5.6 |
| ED | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 5.5 |
| LB | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 5.3 |
| CB | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 4.7 |
| SAF | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 4.2 |
| RB | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 4.2 |
| QB | 2.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 3.0 |
| TE | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.1 |
| Total by Round | 20.0 | 12.0 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 |