It’s always interesting digging into the data ahead of a game as you generally don’t know where it will take you.
Earlier in the season, I dug into the Eagles/Titans game as it was the one many circled as the first big test for the Eagles. After looking at it, I felt the Eagles matched up really well and it played out that way. The points I made were:
- Good pass defenses allowed stacking the box to contain Derrick Henry and the Eagles limited Henry to 30 yards on 11 attempts
- The Titans didn’t defend deep passing well and Philly had a silly 8 explosive passes for 218 yards
- Philly’s pass rush was a distinct strength against the Titans’ poor OL and Tannehill took 6 sacks while under pressure on 41.9% of dropbacks
- The Titans had a good run defense but struggled against mobile QBs – this one I missed on as Hurts didn’t need to run
So what about the 49ers this week?
I hate saying it but I think it is very much going to be a game about all the football cliches.
The 49ers run defense vs. the Eagles run game
The 49ers are statistically the league’s 2nd best run defense but they haven’t faced any team that runs as well as the Eagles. That’s because there is no other team remotely close to the Eagles.
I’ve written about how historic this Eagles run offense is with 4 of the top 25 run games since 2010 but just focusing on this season, they have an EPA/rush twice the 2nd best team. Twice.
As for the 49ers, yes, they have a very good defense but they have only faced two top 10 rushing offenses this season:
- Week 6 against the Falcon’s 5th ranked rush offense: The 49ers gave up 168 yards on 40 carriers, a 43.6% success rate, and 0.041 EPA/rush
- Week 7 against the Chiefs’ 10th ranked rush offense: 112 yards on 21 carries, a 47.4% success rate, and a 0.293 EPA/rush
San Francisco has a very good defense and Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw are both having silly good years. But the Eagles will be able to run because they have already shown it. This season, when Philly started Hurts they played 5 games against 4 of the top 10 run defenses by DVOA and gained 138, 112, 94, 75, and 67.
And last season when SF was again the 2nd ranked run defense, Philly in a frustrating loss ran for 151 yards on 29 carries with Hurts doing a ton of the damage.
Hurts didn’t run much Saturday against the Giants but I expect him to be way more active this week. He will need to be.
Generating explosive plays
The 49ers defense is a lot like the Eagles’ defense in that it limits explosive plays – San Francisco is 2nd in league in limiting explosive plays and Philly is 5th.
This is one of those idiotic analyst self-defining stats because of course explosive plays are helpful, but the teams that had success against the 49ers all were able to create explosives:
- Week 7 Chiefs: 11 explosives (25.9% rate)
- Week 13 Dolphins: 8 explosives (19.0% rate) – game ended 33-17 but was a one score game until 2 minutes left in the 4th
- Week 17 Raiders: 9 explosive plays (13.8% rate)
Like the Eagles, they construct their defense that way.
But the Eagles have been excellent at morphing their offensive plan this season and we should expect a lot more deep passing than we saw against the Giants when Hurts only threw deep twice all game.
And the 49ers will give up deep passing. This season they have given up the 5th most deep passing yards and when you look at just the second half of the season, they have given up the most in the league. In their last 5 games, here are what opponents have done on deep passing:
- Commanders: 2 passes / 4 completions /76 yards
- Raiders: 4/7/153
- Cardinals: 1/4/77
- Seahawks: 2/4/74
- Cowboys: 1/5/46
The Eagles are the best deep passing team in the league by far, with 500 yards on 13 downfield completions, over 100 yards more than the next closest team.
One or both of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith (and Quez Watkins if you want to make your call) will have some big catches. The Eagles will need it and expect them to attack downfield.
Turnover luck? Or skill?
You will often hear turnovers being referred to as “luck”, at least in the analytical sense. I don’t totally agree with that, I think there is a bit more stability with turnovers but more on the offensive side (QBs that turn the ball over continue to do so).
This is another one of the cliche parts. The Eagles need to not turn the ball over.
Not shocking but here’s some data on why this is important.
The 49ers are 1st in the league in value gained from turnovers, totaling 152.1 EPA gained over the season (the Eagles are 4th at 129.6 EPA gained).
And an even greater percentage of their turnover value has come the past since week 13, with 16 turnovers generated, averaging two per game. In a league with an overall turnover play rate of 1.95%, the SF defense generates a turnover on an absurd 2.71% of plays.
Again, they are a very good defense and good defenses cause turnovers, but they have also faced a lot of offenses that turn the ball over a lot. Only 3 of their opponents are top ten in lowest turnover rates (week 7 vs. KC, week 10 vs. the Chargers, and week 14 vs. Tampa Bay). The others:
| Week | Opponent | Opposing Offense Turnover Rate | Turnover Rate Rank |
| 1 | CHI | 2.39% | 28 |
| 2 | SEA | 2.11% | 23 |
| 3 | DEN | 2.07% | 22 |
| 4 | LA | 2.30% | 26 |
| 5 | CAR | 1.92% | 15 |
| 6 | ATL | 1.79% | 11 |
| 7 | KC | 1.56% | 7 |
| 8 | LA | 2.30% | 26 |
| 10 | LAC | 1.73% | 9 |
| 11 | ARI | 1.96% | 17 |
| 12 | NO | 2.33% | 27 |
| 13 | MIA | 2.00% | 19 |
| 14 | TB | 1.67% | 8 |
| 15 | SEA | 2.11% | 23 |
| 16 | WAS | 2.15% | 24 |
| 17 | LV | 1.86% | 13 |
| 18 | ARI | 1.96% | 17 |
| 19 | SEA | 2.11% | 23 |
| 20 | DAL | 1.92% | 16 |
That’s a who’s who list of turnover teams…
But the Philly offense is 4th best in the league in limiting turnovers with a 1.51% turnover play rate. San Francisco is also good, 6th in the league at 1.53% but the 49ers rely on turnovers more than the Eagles do.
The joke is the game plan against the Eagles is “hope they turn the ball over 4 times” and there is some truth to that – they have largely not been in any sort of trouble this year without turnovers. And if they stay out of turnover trouble this week, they will win.
The Eagles are very slightly favored, but where the 49ers are strong, the Eagles are stronger.
I said it is a cliche game and as much as I wanted to find some hidden analytical nuggets, it really does come down to limiting turnovers, generating explosives, and running the ball.
Jalen Hurts will be the most important player on the field and if he has a good game, the Eagles will roll. And how do you not bet on Hurts at this point.
And if you haven’t seen this, enjoy a couple of minutes of the Hurts vs. Purdy shootout in college:
Fly Eagles Fly!