I am nowhere near done looking at prospects and there is a ton of time before the draft, but a few things look pretty clear so far. And one is that defensive line is going to be a priority for a lot of teams, not just the Eagles.
Some thoughts on how the 2023 draft may shape and some different “best players available” that could be there for the Eagles .
The 2023 draft lacks the top-end at several premium positions
The most heavily drafted positions in the 1st round are CB (averages 5 players taken in the 1st), EDGE(3.8), WR (3.8), and OT (3.7). But outside of EDGE (more on them in a second), this class doesn’t have the top-end talent the past several classes have had.
Cornerback
We are used to multiple top CBs – Sauce and Stingley, Horn and Surtain – but this year we have only one in my opinion, Oregon’s Christian Gonzalez. Many have Kelee Ringo up there and I know I am an outlier, but I have concerns on his change of direction translating to the NFL. Joey Porter Jr and Cam Smith I like but they aren’t top 10 guys.
Wide Receiver
After being spoiled the past couple of years with immediate impact, top-of-the-league receivers like Ja’Marr Chase, DeVonta Smith, Justin Jefferson, Jaylen Waddle, Garrett Wilson, and Chris Olave, this class doesn’t have a clear top guy. Jordan Addison is probably WR1 and some like Quentin Johnson, but are any of them anywhere near the same top-end we have seen?
Tackle
This is the leanest position group of the bunch and it took a hit when Ola Fashanu decided to return next year. Paris Johnson is deserving. Most like Skoronski but his length isn’t what I want that high (I admit I am very biased on big and athletic tackles). Anton Harrison? Broderick Jones? They will be pushed up boards, but aside from Paris, I don’t think any of these guys would have been drafted here in past years.
It will be interesting to see if the QB trade-ups return
The Texans are taking a QB. But after them, there are several QB-desperate teams not high enough. Will the Colts (currently 5) or Panthers (8) or newly-in-the-QB-market Raiders (9) be willing to move up? The Lions have two 1sts (picks 7 and 18) and are better positioned than anybody to get a QB if they want to.
And while moving up from outside the top 10 is near impossible, there are some teams deeper in the draft that really need QBs like the Jets (currently pick 15) and Saints (40).
The Bears, currently at pick 2 and Cardinals at pick 4 could both look to cash in.
I think three QBs will probably go in the top 10 this year and if teams get desperate, I wouldn’t be surprised if a 4th went. Bryce Young, CJ Stroud, Will Levis and Tanner McKee could all be taken.
Defensive line is going to be historically drafted
Defensive line is very strong this year. Last year EDGEs went high with 3 taken in the top 5 picks but it wasn’t a heavily drafted class overall with only 3 more defensive linemen taken in the rest of the 1st. But 2023 should look more like 2019 when 11 defensive linemen went in the 1st.
Here are the DT and EDGE names that should be in the round 1 conversation:
- Definites (6): Jalen Carter, Will Anderson, Myles Murphy, Tyree Wilson, Jared Verse, Bryan Bresee
- Possibles (5): Nolan Smith, Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Isaiah Foskey, BJ Ojulari, Gervon Dexter
And there are a couple more potential surprises. With the growing value of NTs, would Sikai Ika sneak into the 1st? I’m not sure why Tuli Tuipulotu isn’t talked about more. And Andre Carter is up in the air because of his potential service requirement.
Given the top-end weakness in other positions, it isn’t crazy to have DL be the BPA at almost every non-QB pick in the top 10. Maybe 2023 won’t break the 2019 number, but I would be surprised if at least 8-9 don’t get taken in round 1.
What about the Eagles (Saints) pick?
While the Saints pick can land as high as 4 with a ton of help, it is most likely going to be around where it currently sits with remaining games against Philly and Carolina. The Athletic projects the Saints pick to land at 9, I have them remaining at 10, going 1-1 in their final two games and ending 7-10 lumped with the Browns, Titans, and Jets.
I, like everybody, would love Jalen Carter but, sorry Eagles fans, he will be long gone and the first non-QB taken. Will Anderson will be gone too.
Everybody is mocking DL to the Eagles with the Saints pick which makes all the sense in the world – it matches what Howie wants to invest in, it is a premium position, and it is their biggest need with pending free agents.
But what if there is a huge run on DL?
What if only a couple of QBs are taken at the top with some of the QB-needy teams choosing instead to go after Lamar Jackson, take on Jimmy Garoppolo, trade for Derek Carr, or attempt to rehabilitate Zach Wilson?
And what if the Saints pick drops into the teens?
It wouldn’t be crazy that all of these players are gone by the time the Eagles are on the clock:
- Jalen Carter
- Will Anderson
- Myles Murphy
- Tyree Wilson
- Bryan Bresee
- Jared Verse
I have 9 players (not counting QBs) that I think are worth a top half of round 1 pick. This will differ from most with some key names not on here like Kelee Ringo, Brian Bresee, and Michael Mayer. Joey Porter Jr I am close on. Quentin Johnston not sure I would have here in past years but I do. Most will disagree as there are some favorites here, but that is fine.
| DT | ED | RB | CB | S | OG | OT | WR | QB | TE | LB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1-early | JALEN CARTER | Will Anderson TYREE WILSON Nolan Smith | Christian Gonzalez | Paris Johnson | Quentin Johnston Jordan Addison |
What are some non-chalk picks for the Eagles that could make sense? Here are a few pretty obvious ones and one or two that may be crazy…
Christian Gonzalez, CB Oregon
Why the Eagles should do it:
Gonzalez is my CB1. I care about play recognition, change of direction, and willingness to tackle. Gonzalez is all of that. He stays with receivers both down field and in breaks and is one of the best zone corners in this class. Corner is one of the most expensive positions to get in free agency, Bradberry is hitting free agency, Slay is older, and Avonte has missed time.
And one more – I wish I had all-22 of this play. Everybody looks at the interception but look at his change of direction and burst.
Why not:
I think Howie sees the difficult hit rate on corners and really prefers to either get veterans (Slay, Bradberry, Nelson) or load up on cheaper options and hope one hits in Gannon’s corner-friendly scheme. This isn’t a bad strategy, but it is an expensive one and one that is difficult to keep consistent performance with players changing each year.
Paris Johnson, OT Ohio State
Why the Eagles should do it:
As I said above I won’t like any tackle that isn’t big and mobile – Paris is both. Howie will always invest in lines and while tackle is locked up with Mailata and Lane, Paris brings 775 snaps at RG to the pros. The Eagles will need to decide which free agents to let go and maybe Seumalo is expendable. Also, we all love Lane but he has missed 19 games over the past 4 years. The Eagles don’t have a good enough backup or swing tackle.
Why not:
There really isn’t much reason not to unless you don’t think Paris is an NFL tackle. Given his ability to play tackle and guard, there is a spot for him.
Jordan Addison, WR USC
Why the Eagles should do it:
Receiver will always be a premium position and no position is getting more expensive in free agency. You may worry that there aren’t enough targets to go around, but it isn’t crazy to have 3 – just look at the Bengals with Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd who have 285 targets and 2,693 yards combined. Not quite the same level but Tampa Bay has Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Russell Gage. And a round 1 pick brings a 5th year option which helps down the road on cap.
Why not:
I know, this would make 4 years in a row the Eagles used a 1st on a receiver (Reagor and DeVonta picks and the AJ trade). But what does that matter? The biggest reason not to do this would be that you feel comfortable with a day 2 receiver, which there are several good ones this year.
Bijan Robinson, RB Texas
This is the “kinda crazy” one…
Why the Eagles should do it:
You now how people have insane code phrases they will say when kidnapped so people know they are kidnapped? Mine could be “yeah, it makes sense to take a running back in the first…”
I am not a RB hater by any means, but it isn’t crazy that Bijan could be the BPA when the Eagles pick. Some stats – 68% of his yards come after contact, 40.5% missed tackle rate, 1.52 yards per route run… As I wrote in “Rushing Has Made a Comeback”, the use and value of rushing has increased with rushing EPA across the league being positive for the first time.
Why not:
Besides just saying “don’t draft a RB in round 1”, the reason not to is because of the comparative value of the rookie wage scale and free agency. Whoever is picked around 10 will have an average annual contract value a bit above $5M – you can expect the top free agent backs to be in the $6M range. You just aren’t getting value vs. the free agency market picking this high compared to CB or WR or OT which all go for $15-20M AAV at the top end.
The one thing to consider though is RBs have a very definite age curve and signing free agents carries a lot of drop-off risk. Data shows that generally around 1,800 career rush attempts a back starts to materially decline in value. The top 3 backs in free agency last year are all dramatically underperforming – Leonard Fournette is 61st out of 68 backs, Chase Edmonds is 62nd, and Cordarrelle Patterson 46th. If drafting a RB high is questionable positional value, signing a free agent RB should get GMs fired.
Darnell Washington, TE Georgia
And this is the “are you an idiot” one…
Why the Eagles should do it:
The only people I have seen have Darnell this high are ex-Jets scout Daniel Kelly (see his article “Georgia Tight End Darnell Washington Looks Dominant”) and Josh Edwards from CBS.
Everybody has Mayer as TE1 and one of the safest picks in the draft. I don’t see it. He’s not a great blocker, he does catch everything but is not dynamic. I don’t dislike Mayer, I just don’t see a top 10 or 15 guy.
Darnell is what we hoped Tyree Jackson would be. He is by far the best blocking tight end – he looks like a tackle blocking. Ignore his college production, he was asked to block often at UGA and if you watch the film, he could have been targeted whenever he was out in routes. At 6’7″ 270lbs, he’s an absolute matchup nightmare. Jelani Woods was undervalued last year and will be the best TE from last class. Darnell is better.
Could you imagine A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, and Darnell Washington all out in routes? Seriously watch these three clips spliced together:
Why not:
Because you hate fun. I don’t know. But seriously, yes, I know all the simulators have him with an ADP around 40 but simulators are wrong. Go back and look how much prospect rankings change between December and the draft. Maybe it is too high for him, maybe we don’t want to run 12 personnel, maybe positional value.
So what would I do?
Of course Howie will make a trade up if he sees the board falling wrong and wants his guy, as he has done the past two seasons. And I would do the same.
But what would I do if the above played out and a trade wasn’t possible? I would take Christian Gonzalez without hesitation. It is a need, he is so good, and top corners are incredibly expensive.
When Hurts gets extended and his new contract hits, the Eagles will need to pull cap from other positions. Right now they are slated to have the most expensive CB room in the league in 2023 at $38M. And that is without James Bradberry
But I would be ecstatic to have any of these guys, even Bijan.
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